Major Winter Storm in the North-Central U.S.; Severe Weather from the Mid-South to Ohio Valley

A major winter storm will bring a swath of heavy snowfall, strong winds, blizzard conditions and freezing rain to the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region. A line of storms will be capable of producing widespread damaging winds, tornadoes, and some large hail from the Mid-south to the Ohio Valley and the Southeast. Critical fire weather concerns shift to the southern Rockies and Plains. Read More >

Lake Erie

The reported Lake Erie water temperature is taken at the Buffalo Water Treatment Plant located on Lake Erie at the entrance to the Niagara River. The reading is taken at a depth of 30 feet. This data is unofficial.

Lake Ontario

The reported Lake Ontario water temperature is taken at the Monroe County Water Treatment Plant near Greece, N.Y. The temperatures is measured at the intake pipes about 1500 feet offshore at a approximate depth of 35 feet. The Lake Ontario temperature occasionally may not be representative of the surface temperature due to upwelling. This process, more common during the summer months, brings colder water from the deeper parts of the lake toward the surface near the temperature sensor. The surface water may be significantly warmer. This data is unofficial.

Latest Lake Temperatures

1056 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 The water temperature off Buffalo is 32 degrees.

1056 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 The water temperature off Rochester is 39 degrees.

Monthly Lake Erie Temperatures
January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December

Historical Lake Erie Temperatures (Unofficial Normals and Extremes)

The daily lake temperatures for Lake Erie off Buffalo and for Lake Ontario off Rochester are included in the Nearshore Marine Forecast.

Click the link for previous versions of the Nearshore Marine Forecast.

NearShore Marine Forecast

145
FZUS51 KBUF 151404
NSHBUF

Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

For waters within five nautical miles of shore

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

LEZ020-152100-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast
15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy late this morning, then becoming
partly sunny.
.TONIGHT...South winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy.
.MONDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Rain
showers.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west.
Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then snow showers
likely overnight.
.TUESDAY...West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to
15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
.WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A
chance of snow showers Wednesday night.
.THURSDAY...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A
chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of
rain showers Thursday night.

The water temperature off Buffalo is 32 degrees.

$$

LOZ030-152100-
Lower Niagara River-
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A
chance of snow late this morning.
.TONIGHT...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy.
.MONDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Rain
showers.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming west.
Rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers in the evening,
then a chance of snow showers overnight.
.TUESDAY...West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to
10 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
.WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A
chance of snow showers Wednesday night.
.THURSDAY...South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of
rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain
showers Thursday night.

$$

LEZ040-041-152100-
Buffalo to Ripley along Lake Erie-
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Mostly
cloudy late this morning, then becoming partly sunny. The lake is
mostly ice covered.
.TONIGHT...South winds to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy.
.MONDAY...South winds to 30 knots becoming west. Rain showers in
the morning, then rain showers with snow showers likely in the
afternoon.
.MONDAY NIGHT...West winds to 30 knots increasing to 35 knot
gales. Snow showers likely.
.TUESDAY...West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots.
Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers
Tuesday night.
.WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A
chance of snow showers Wednesday night.
.THURSDAY...South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A
chance of rain showers.

Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.

$$

LOZ042-152100-
Niagara River to Hamlin Beach along Lake Ontario-
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.REST OF TODAY...East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southeast.
Snow likely late this morning. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves
occasionally around 7 feet.
.TONIGHT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south to
30 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally
around 7 feet.
.MONDAY...Southeast winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and
increasing to 35 knot gales in the afternoon. Rain showers. Waves
3 to 5 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around
13 feet.
.MONDAY NIGHT...Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west. Rain
showers with snow showers likely in the evening, then snow
showers likely overnight. Waves 8 to 12 feet building to 10 to
13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
.TUESDAY...West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots.
Snow showers likely. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 4 to 7 feet.
Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
.WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to
20 knots. A chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 1 to
3 feet.
.THURSDAY...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of
rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain
showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.

$$

LOZ043-044-152100-
Hamlin Beach to Mexico Bay along Lake Ontario
including Irondequoit Bay-
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow
late this morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet.
Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
.TONIGHT...Southeast winds to 30 knots increasing to 35 knot
gales. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet building
to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
.MONDAY...Southeast winds to 30 knots becoming west. Rain showers
likely in the morning, then rain showers, snow showers with a
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 feet
building to 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
.MONDAY NIGHT...West winds to 30 knots increasing to 35 knot
gales. Snow showers, rain showers with a chance of thunderstorms
in the evening, then snow showers overnight. Waves 8 to 11 feet
building to 12 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around 20 feet.
.TUESDAY...West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots.
Lake effect snow showers. Waves 12 to 17 feet subsiding to 6 to
9 feet. Waves occasionally around 22 feet.
.WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south and
increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely during the day.
Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally
around 6 feet.
.THURSDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. A
chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

The water temperature off Rochester is 37 degrees.

$$

LOZ045-152100-
Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River along Lake Ontario-
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
...GALE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

.REST OF TODAY...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to
15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow. Waves in ice free areas 2 feet
or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
.TONIGHT...Southeast winds to 30 knots increasing to 40 knot
gales. A chance of rain showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet
building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
.MONDAY...Southeast gales to 35 knots becoming southwest and
diminishing to 30 knots in the afternoon. A chance of rain
showers in the morning, then rain and snow showers in the
afternoon. Waves 5 to 9 feet, then 6 to 9 feet. Waves
occasionally around 11 feet.
.MONDAY NIGHT...West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest and
increasing to 40 knot gales. Snow and rain showers in the
evening, then lake effect snow showers overnight. Waves 8 to
11 feet building to 12 to 16 feet. Waves occasionally around
20 feet.
.TUESDAY...West gales to 40 knots becoming northwest and
diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Lake effect snow showers. Waves
11 to 16 feet subsiding to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around
20 feet.
.WEDNESDAY...Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to
20 knots. A chance of snow showers Wednesday night. Waves 3 to
5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
.THURSDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow and rain
showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Wave heights are for ice free areas.

$$

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