Severe Thunderstorms and Heavy Rain Across the Central US; Wintry Mix in the Northern Plains and Northeast

Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding are possible across the central U.S. through Saturday. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes are all possible. There is an increased threat for wildfire development in the southern to central High Plains. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain are forecast across portions of the northern Plains and central New England into early Friday morning. Read More >

Lake Erie

The reported Lake Erie water temperature is taken at the Buffalo Water Treatment Plant located on Lake Erie at the entrance to the Niagara River. The reading is taken at a depth of 30 feet. This data is unofficial.

Lake Ontario

The reported Lake Ontario water temperature is taken at the Monroe County Water Treatment Plant near Greece, N.Y. The temperatures is measured at the intake pipes about 1500 feet offshore at a approximate depth of 35 feet. The Lake Ontario temperature occasionally may not be representative of the surface temperature due to upwelling. This process, more common during the summer months, brings colder water from the deeper parts of the lake toward the surface near the temperature sensor. The surface water may be significantly warmer. This data is unofficial.

Latest Lake Temperatures

1003 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026 The water temperature off Buffalo is 32 degrees.

1003 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026 The water temperature off Rochester is 36 degrees.

Monthly Lake Erie Temperatures
January	February	March	April	May	June	July	August	September	October	November	December

Historical Lake Erie Temperatures (Unofficial Normals and Extremes)

The daily lake temperatures for Lake Erie off Buffalo and for Lake Ontario off Rochester are included in the Nearshore Marine Forecast.

Click the link for previous versions of the Nearshore Marine Forecast.

NearShore Marine Forecast

245
FZUS51 KBUF 052103
NSHBUF

Nearshore Marine Forecast
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
403 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

For waters within five nautical miles of shore

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

LEZ020-060400-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
403 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.TONIGHT...Northeast winds 10 knots or less. Rain this evening.
.FRIDAY...Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog in the
morning.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...East winds 10 knots or less becoming south and
increasing to 15 to 20 knots overnight. A chance of showers in
the evening, then showers likely overnight.
.SATURDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest.
Showers.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west
5 to 15 knots. Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain
showers overnight.
.SUNDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy, then
becoming mainly clear.
.MONDAY...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to
15 knots. Mainly clear.
.TUESDAY...South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance
of rain showers during the day, then rain showers Tuesday night.

The water temperature off Buffalo is 32 degrees.

$$

LOZ030-060400-
Lower Niagara River-
403 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.TONIGHT...Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain this evening.
.FRIDAY...Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Light and variable winds becoming south 10 to
15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain
showers likely overnight.
.SATURDAY...South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to
20 knots. Showers.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west.
Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers
overnight.
.SUNDAY...West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Becoming
mainly clear.
.MONDAY...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to
15 knots. Mainly clear.
.TUESDAY...South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to
20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain
showers Tuesday night.

$$

LEZ040-041-060400-
Buffalo to Ripley along Lake Erie-
403 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.TONIGHT...Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots diminishing to less than
10 knots. Rain this evening. Patchy fog late. The lake is mostly
ice covered.
.FRIDAY...Light and variable winds. Areas of fog.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south
15 to 20 knots. Showers likely overnight.
.SATURDAY...South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest.
Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a chance of
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west
and diminishing to 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers with a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of rain showers
overnight.
.SUNDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to
20 knots. Partly cloudy, then becoming mainly clear.
.MONDAY...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. Mainly clear.
.TUESDAY...South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to
25 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain
showers Tuesday night.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.

$$

LOZ042-060400-
Niagara River to Hamlin Beach along Lake Ontario-
403 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...East winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain early, then rain and
freezing rain late this evening. A chance of rain after midnight.
Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally
around 9 feet.
.FRIDAY...East winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to
5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around
6 feet.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to
20 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then rain
showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
.SATURDAY...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to
30 knots. Showers likely in the morning, then showers with a
chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet
building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west
and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers with a chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of rain showers
overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves
occasionally around 7 feet.
.SUNDAY...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest and
increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 to
3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
.MONDAY...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Mainly
clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves
occasionally around 6 feet.
.TUESDAY...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south and
increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers during the
day, then rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building
to 2 to 4 feet.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

$$

LOZ043-060400-
Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay along Lake Ontario
including Irondequoit Bay-
403 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

.TONIGHT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east. Rain
through the early overnight. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to
5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
.FRIDAY...East winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning,
then becoming partly sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to
3 feet.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south
15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers
likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
.SATURDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest.
Showers likely in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west.
Rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers
overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.SUNDAY...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to
20 knots. Partly cloudy, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to
4 feet.
.MONDAY...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Mainly
clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.TUESDAY...Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to
20 knots. A chance of showers during the day, then showers
Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

The water temperature off Rochester is 36 degrees.

$$

LOZ044-060400-
Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay along Lake Ontario-
403 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.TONIGHT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to
15 knots. Rain through the early overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet
subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.FRIDAY...East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Mostly
cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Waves 2 feet
or less.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south.
Showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to
4 feet.
.SATURDAY...South winds 15 to 25 knots. Showers likely in the
morning, then showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet
subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west.
Rain showers in the evening, then rain showers likely overnight.
Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally
around 6 feet.
.SUNDAY...West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots.
Partly cloudy, then becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet
subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.MONDAY...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 to
3 feet.
.TUESDAY...South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to
25 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain
showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to
3 feet.

$$

LOZ045-060400-
Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River along Lake Ontario-
403 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.TONIGHT...Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to
15 knots. Rain with freezing rain likely through the early
overnight. Waves in ice free areas 1 foot or less.
.FRIDAY...Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast.
Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly sunny. Waves
2 feet or less.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south to
30 knots. Rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to
2 to 4 feet.
.SATURDAY...South winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to
25 knots. Showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west
and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers in the evening,
then rain showers likely overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to
3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
.SUNDAY...West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to
20 knots. Mostly cloudy, then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.MONDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to
15 knots. Mainly clear, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 to
4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
.TUESDAY...Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south and
increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers during the
day, then rain showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building
to 2 to 4 feet.

Wave heights are for ice free areas.

$$

Radar