National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce


000
AXUS73 KJKL 281655 CCA
DGTJKL
KYC011-013-025-051-063-065-069-071-095-109-115-119-121-125-129-131-
133-147-153-159-165-173-175-189-193-195-197-199-203-205-231-235-237-
311500-

Drought Information Statement...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1255 PM EDT Mon Oct 28 2019

...Widespread Soaking Rainfall And Seasonal Temperatures Over The
Last Week Have Continued To Improve Drought Conditions...

...A One-Category Improvement in Drought Status Was Made Across All
Of Eastern Kentucky, Including The Removal Of The Bluegrass Region
And The Far Northeast Portion Of The State From Drought Status All
Together...

Synopsis...

A more active pattern has been in place across much of the country,
bringing multiple rounds of soaking rain to the region and eastern
Kentucky. In the last 7 days, much of eastern Kentucky has picked up
an average of 0.5 to 2 inches of additional rainfall. This, coupled
with the heavy rain received by many early in the month, has led to
a surplus in rainfall across much of eastern Kentucky compared to
October normals. In addition, average daily temperatures have
remained at, if not just below, seasonal normals for the last week.
Overall, both these items have resulted in vast improvements in our
current drought situation.

Drought classifications were improved by one category across all of
eastern Kentucky, and much of the state as a whole. The Extreme
Drought (D3) that was in place across far SE Kentucky last week has
now been improved to D2 (Severe Drought). Moderate Drought (D1)
conditions now surround the area of extreme drought and encompasses
counties along and near the Virginia and eastern Tennessee border,
stretching northward into Breathitt and portions of surrounding
counties. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions encompasses the Moderate
Drought region and is generally located along and south of the
Mountain Parkway. Much of the Bluegrass region and northeast
Kentucky have now been removed form the Drought Classifications all
together. See the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for more information
on classifications.

Summary of Impacts...

Only one county in eastern Kentucky (Owsley) remains under a burn
ban at this point. According to the United States Forest Service,
wildfire danger has improved throughout the week, with Low fire
danger now overspreading a much larger portion of eastern Kentucky.
However, some Moderate areas are still in place. The Daniel Boone
National Forest is now advertising Low Fire Danger threat as well,
and has lifted fire restrictions as a result. Even with improved
conditions, the public should still always check with local
officials before attempting any outside burning. Citizens may be
liable for damages and suppression costs of any wildfire they may
start.

Soil moisture has also shown more improvement with the rains over
the last week and throughout the month, with much of eastern
Kentucky now sitting at the 50th percentile (average) during the
month of October. The Ag Weather Center at the University of
Kentucky reported that the rains were an impedance to the row crop
harvest, but much needed none-the-less, and will continue to promote
pasture growth and replenish ponds. Despite pasture conditions
beginning to improve, farmers with livestock are still needing to
supplement with hay, which is putting stress on winter supplies.

In Harlan County, the community of Benham continued to experience
water shortages during the last week according to local WYMT
Mountain News. After dry conditions resulted in low flow of water
into the town, the town then got an approval to begin pumping water
from the nearby Kentucky River. However, upon hooking up to the
river, pressures within the pipe lines increased to a level that
they could not handle, resulting in multiple line breaks and loss of
water to the city once again. Several closures, including a local
elementary school, resulted because of the lack of water. The city
currently does not have funds to replace the out-dated and broken
piping, but is working to fix the problem. No updates have been
received since October 21st. This appears to the be the only water
shortage impact in the region.


Climate Summary...

The following table illustrates the longer range precipitation
deficits and some surpluses now being observed at various area
Cooperative Weather Observing Sites from September 1st through 8am,
Thursday, October 24th.

SINCE DEPART %
Station ID County SEP 1 NRML NRML

Flemingsburg 2N FLEK2 Fleming 4.91 -0.61 89.0%
Cave Run Lake L CRLK2 Rowan 5.07 -0.49 91.2%
Stanton 2W STAK2 Powell 5.89 +0.11 101.9%
Beattyville 4N BCAK2 Lee 4.50 -1.33 77.2%
WFO Jackson KJKL Breathitt 3.62 -2.14 62.8%
Paintsville 1E PNVK2 Johnson 5.28 -0.28 94.4%
Inez 2E INEK2 Martin 4.77 -1.14 80.7%
Skyline 1SE SKLK2 Letcher 3.00 -2.29 56.7%
Hazard Water HAZK2 Perry 4.38 -1.13 79.5%
Buckhorn Lake BUCK2 Perry 4.58 -0.75 85.9%
London Airport KLOZ Laurel 5.67 +0.12 102.2%

Precipitation/Temperature Outlook...

We will continue to see a more active weather period over the coming
week, along with generally seasonable temperatures. An area of low
pressure to our SW will move towards the region today and through
the weekend, bringing generally between 0.75 and 1.5 inches of
rainfall across eastern Kentucky through Sunday. Highest amounts are
forecasted to be across the central and western portion of the
state. Another system is poised to bring rain through the state by
mid-week next week, followed by unseasonably cooler temperatures.

According to the Climate Prediction Center, the outlook for the end
of October is favoring slightly below normal temperatures across
eastern Kentucky, along with slightly-above normal rainfall.
However, for the month of November, outlooks show a turn to slightly
above normal temperatures across much of the conus, along with equal
chances of below or above normal precipitation for eastern Kentucky.
The monthly outlook was last produced on October 17, so there may be
some changes with the next issuance. The Seasonal Drought Outlook,
also released on October 17, shows Drought Removal Likely across
much of the southeast portion of the state.

Hydrologic Summary and Outlook...

The majority of streams across Eastern Kentucky are running at
normal flow as of 5 AM Friday, October 25, however a handful of
gauges are reporting below-normal flow. One gauge in Wooton,
Kentucky is reporting much-below-normal flow. Rainfall over the
coming week will continue to support increased streamflows, and will
hopefully improve the below-normal flows back to the normal range.

Next Issuance Date...

This product will be updated bi-weekly as long as the Severe Drought
(D2) conditions continue. Look for the next update around Thursday,
November, 7th. However, in the event that the Severe Drought (D2)
improves during this time, this product will no longer be issued.

&&

Related Web Sites...

The following web addresses are available for further weather and
drought information:

NWS Jackson Page...weather.gov/jkl
Additional River Information
USGS - http://water.usgs.gov
COE - http://www.mvr.usace.army.mil
National Integrated Drought Information System:
http://www.drought.gov
US Drought Monitor:
http://www.drought.unl.edu
Climate Prediction Center:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service:
http://www.nass.usda.gov
Midwest Climate Watch:
http://mrcc.isws.illinois.edu/cliwatch/watch.htm
University of Kentucky Agricultural Weather Center:
http://wwwagwx.ca.uky.edu/drought.html
Kentucky Mesonet:
http://www.kymesonet.org
Kentucky Division of Water:
http://www.water.ky.gov
Kentucky Division of Forestry:
http://www.forestry.ky.gov
NWS Ohio River Forecast Center:
http://www.weather.gov/OHRFC


Acknowledgments...

The US Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving the
National Weather Service, the National Center for Environmental
Information, the United States Department of Agriculture, state and
regional center climatologists, and the National Drought Mitigation
Center. Information for this statement has been gathered from NWS
and FAA observation sites, cooperative network stations, the United
States Geological Survey, the Kentucky Mesonet, and the United
States Army Corps of Engineers.

Questions or Comments...

If you have any questions or comments about this drought information
Please Contact:

National Weather Service
1329 Airport Road
Jackson Kentucky 41339
Phone: 606-666-2560
w-jkl.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

JMW

During a Drought be Vigilant.  Conserve water.  Practice Fire Prevention.  Follow Directions from Local Officials.

Drought Impacts Can Exceed $1 Billion.  Droughts are one of the costliest natural disasters on the planet.  Find out the latest information at http://drought.gov