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Overview

The second warmest December on record for Eastern Kentucky finished with a warm and moist air mass in place on New Year's Eve. A developing warm front slowly lifted northward out of the Tennessee Valley during the early morning hours on New Year's Day 2022 and stalled near the the Hal Rogers/Highway 80 corridor. The combination of strong lifting and near record atmospheric moisture levels for this time of year led to a line of training showers and thunderstorms, some with frequent lightning and intense downpours. The heaviest rainfall occurred from about 4 to 8 AM and led to many instances of flash flooding from Rockcastle County east northeast through Jackson, Owsley, Breathitt, Floyd, and Pike counties. By midday, locations affected by this activity had received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall. A temporary lull in the showers followed as the front shifted further to the north during the late morning and early afternoon. This allowed temperatures to surge into the 60s across the northeast Kentucky and into the lower to middle 70s closer the Kentucky/Tennessee border. Strong to severe thunderstorms developed in a high shear, low instability environment during the afternoon as a cold front swept from northwest to southeast across the area. While these storms mainly produced damaging wind gusts, one storm produced a brief spinup tornado in far northwest Estill County. Impacts did not end with the passage of the cold front though; the excessive rainfall from earlier in the day quickly found its way into the mainstem rivers, sending multiple locations along the Kentucky and Red Rivers into flood stage. The most significant river flooding of the event Moderate flood was attained along the Kentucky River at Ravenna, the Red River at Clay City, and the South Fork Kentucky River at Booneville. A few other locations surpassed Minor flood stage.

Image
Heavily Damaged Stream Crossing in Breathitt County

(Courtesy of Florence Martin)

Radar

 

Radar Image
Event Radar Loop from 7 PM Friday, December 31st through 7 AM Sunday, January 2nd

Rain Reports

48-Hour Rainfall Amounts Ending Sunday Morning January 2nd, 2022 (Sorted by County)

 

Location                                         Amount               Time/Date                        Lat/Lon             

 

Bath County

4 S Owingsville                               2.08 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 38.09N/83.76W       

1 NNW Owingsville                         1.48 in                  0800 AM 01/02                 38.14N/83.76W       

 

Bell County

Yellow Creek RAWS                       1.74 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 36.60N/83.70W       

Middlesboro-Bell County AP           1.62 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 36.61N/83.74W       

 

Breathitt County

14 ESE Jackson                             4.80 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.46N/83.16W  

14 SE Jackson                               4.27 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.43N/83.18W

NWS Office/Julian Carroll AP         3.55 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.59N/83.31W        

9 SE Campton                                3.24 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.66N/83.41W       

3 SE Jackson                                 3.21 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.54N/83.34W       

Jackson Airport RAWS                   2.93 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.59N/83.32W       

 

Clay County

Oneida                                           3.69 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.27N/83.65W       

Peabody RAWS                             1.28 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.14N/83.58W       

 

Estill County

Cressy                                            2.41 in                  0800 AM 01/02                 37.83N/84.04W       

 

Floyd County

3 WSW Prestonsburg                    3.26 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.66N/82.83W       

               

Harlan County

24 E Harlan                                    2.26 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 36.92N/82.91W       

3 N Harlan                                      1.52 in                  0813 AM 01/02                 36.88N/83.31W       

 

Jackson County

5 S McKee                                     4.86 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.36N/83.97W       

8 W McKee                                    3.85 in                  0800 AM 01/02                 37.43N/84.14W       

 

Johnson County

1 E Paintsville                                2.80 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.82N/82.79W       

4 W Paintsville                               2.76 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.83N/82.88W       

 

Knott County

5 N Hindman                                  4.67 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.41N/82.99W       

Carr Creek                                     1.82 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.23N/83.03W       

 

Knox County

3 E Barbourville                             1.20 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 36.87N/83.83W       

               

Laurel County

London-Corbin Airport                   1.52 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.09N/84.07W       

4 S London                                    1.51 in                  0430 AM 01/02                 37.07N/84.09W       

 

Lee County

4 N Beattyville                               3.35 in                  0900 AM 01/02                 37.63N/83.72W       

 

Letcher County

2 SE Whitesburg                           1.78 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.10N/82.80W       

Skyline                                          1.73 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.09N/82.99W       

2 NW Whitesburg                          1.54 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.13N/82.84W       

 

Magoffin County

Salyersville                                    2.99 in                  0800 AM 01/02                 37.74N/83.07W       

 

Martin County

2 E Inez                                         2.76 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.87N/82.52W       

Big Sandy RAWS                          2.38 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.75N/82.64W       

 

McCreary County

3 N Whitley City                            1.43 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 36.77N/84.48W       

 

Montgomery County

2 W Mount Sterling                       2.34 in                  0730 AM 01/02                 38.07N/83.99W       

5 N Mount Sterling                        2.15 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 38.13N/83.96W       

Mount Sterling AP                         1.86 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 38.06N/83.98W       

 

Morgan County

2 SW West Liberty                        3.20 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.90N/83.27W       

 

Owsley County

2 S Booneville                               4.29 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.45N/83.69W       

4 ENE Booneville                          3.60 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.50N/83.62W       

 

Perry County

Buckhorn Lake                              4.31 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.34N/83.47W        

1 N Viper                                       0.59 in                  0546 AM 01/02                 37.19N/83.15W       

 

Pike County

1 SE Fedscreek                            2.69 in                  0700 PM 01/02                 37.39N/82.26W       

13 S Pikeville                                1.79 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.28N/82.51W       

 

Powell County

2 W Stanton                                  3.14 in                  0800 AM 01/02                 37.86N/83.90W       

1 WNW Clay City                          2.87 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.87N/83.93W       

 

Pulaski County

7 NNE Somerset                          4.19 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.18N/84.56W       

Somerset-Pulaski County AP       2.22 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.05N/84.61W       

15 ESE Somerset                         1.78 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.02N/84.34W       

 

Rockcastle County

7 SSW Broadhead                        4.52 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.30N/84.46W       

 

Rowan County

6 NE Morehead                            2.11 in                  0707 AM 01/02                 38.24N/83.34W       

4 NE Morehead                            2.05 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 38.22N/83.48W       

Cave Run Lake                            1.93 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 38.12N/83.53W       

Triangle Mountain RAWS             1.78 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 38.18N/83.41W       

 

Whitley County

7 SW Corbin                                 1.61 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 36.87N/84.21W       

 

Wolfe County

Koomer Ridge RAWS                   2.29 in                  0700 AM 01/02                 37.78N/83.63W       

 

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying

equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers

for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

         

 

 


Environment

A very warm and moist air mass, by late December standards was already in place on December 31st as a frontal boundary lingered to our north over the Ohio Valley. Figure 1 shows the new warm front developing and lifting into southeast Kentucky early in the night before becoming nearly stationary New Year's morning. While rainfall was observed over the entire area, showers and strong thunderstorms with torrential rainfall became entrenched along the warm front from 4 to 9 AM. This intense activity was likely due to the combination of extremely moist tropical air mass (Figure 2) being lifted over the surface front by a powerful southwesterly jet (Figure 2). Once lifted, this air became buoyant amidst the elevated instability aloft (Figure 4), and fueled the deep convection evident on radar imagery. After a lull in the activity later in the morning, showers and storms redeveloped across Central Kentucky during the early afternoon ahead of a cold front and wave of low pressure (Figure 5). In the system's warm sector, a powerful low-level jet contributed to strong directional shear and sufficient storm relative helicity (Figure 5) for tornadogenesis. The primary limiting factor for widespread severe thunderstorms was the very weak instability, mainly under 500 J/kg on the MLCAPE analysis. In fact, the lack of lightning with most of the afternoon convection was likely due to the lack of instability. However, a relative maxima of 0-3km MLCAPE and surface vorticity (Figure 9) and the passing surface low (Figure 5) happened to coincide with passage of a stronger thunderstorm passing from Madison into Estill County. Even in the absence of notable instability, the remaining ingredients were still sufficient to generate a brief tornado near Palmer, KY.  

Environment
Figure 1: Surface Analysis/Radar Loop from 7 PM December 31st through 7 AM January 2nd


Environmental data around the time of heaviest rainfall.

Environment Environment Environment

Figure 2: Precipitable Water at 5 AM January 1st

Figure 3: 925-850 mb Moisture Transport at 5 AM January 1st Figure 4: Most Unstable CAPE at 5 AM January 1st


Environmental data around the time of the Estill County tornado.

Environment Environment Environment Environment
Figure 5: Sea Level Pressure at 2 PM January 1st Figure 6: Effective Shear at 2 PM January 1st Figure 7: Effective Storm Relative Helicity at 2 PM January 1st Figure 8: Surface Vorticity & 0-3 km MLCAPE at 2 PM January 1st

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