A major winter storm is expected to bring heavy snow, strong winds, and coastal flooding across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast that may cause impossible travel conditions and power outages. Blizzard conditions are possible along coastal areas from the DelMarVa Peninsula through southeastern New England. Wet weather and strong winds return to the Pacific Northwest and north-central California. Read More >
Overview
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An unusually mild and moist air mass set up across eastern Kentucky in the days prior to February 16th as a wavering frontal boundary laid out along the Ohio Valley. The boundary separated a chilly winter air mass to the north from a mild and very moist air mass to the south. A persistent feed of warm, moist, and unstable air over the boundary, along with potent disturbances passing aloft, sparked rounds of training showers and thunderstorms for much of the day on the 15th. This was followed by a final round of showers and thunderstorms with the passage of a cold front during the morning of the 16th. Rainfall amounts of 2.5 to 4.5 inches were common. Generally speaking, the heaviest and most persistent rain fell between the I-64 and Hal Rogers/Highway 80 corridors although some locations further southeast also picked up on the heavier rainfall amounts. Scattered instances of flash flooding were observed along with many instances of urban and small stream flooding. Eventually, all of this rain led to significant rises on the main stem rivers, pushing river gauge points into action or flood stage on all of the primary rivers -- the Big Sandy, Licking, Red, Kentucky and Cumberland. The worst river flooding was observed along the Kentucky River at Ravenna where Major Flood stage was almost eclipsed and also along the Red River in Clay City where the river reached well into Moderate Flood stage. The flood waters appeared to remain just low enough to spare significant damage to homes, but there were many instances of inundated roads, road damage, and stranded vehicles. A large rockslide also occurred along KY-52 between Jackson and Beattyville. |
 Areal photo of flooding along Pikeville (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
Flooding
Hydrographs of those river forecast points which achieved at least action stage are listed below:
Kentucky River North Fork and South Fork Gauge Points
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| North Fork Kentucky River at Whitesburg | North Fork Kentucky River at Hazard | North Fork Kentucky River at Jackson | South Fork Kentucky River at Booneville |
Kentucky River and Red River Gauge Points
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| Kentucky River at Heidelberg | Kentucky River at Ravenna | Red River at Clay City |
Cumberland River Gauge Points
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| Poor Fork Cumberland River at Cumberland | Cumberland River at Pineville | Cumberland River at Barbourville | Cumberland River at Williamsburg |
Big Sandy Russell and Levisa Fork River Gauge Points
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| Russell Fork at Elkhorn City | Levisa Fork at Pikeville | Levisa Fork at Prestonsburg | Levisa Fork at Paintsville |
Tug Fork River Gauge Points
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| Tug Fork at Williamson | Tug Fork at Kermit |
Licking River Gauge Points
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| Licking River at Salyersville |
Photos & Videos
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| Roof View Of Flooding (Pike) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
Concerned Resident On Stoop (Pike) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
Table Floats By (Pike) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
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| Flood Waters Inundate Houses (Pike County) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
Impassable Road From Flood Water (Pike County) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
Damaged Culvert (Pike County) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
Truck Drives Through Flooded Road (Pike County) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
Road Impassable, Culvert Exposed (Pike County) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
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| Car Stopped Due to Impassable Road (Pike County) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
River Swells Out Into Street (Pike County) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
Multiple Vehicles Drives Through Water Over Road (Pike County) (Courtesy of Josh Paul) |
Devastating Flooding Inside Lee County Courthouse (Lee County) (Courtesy of Johnny Ray Feltner) |
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_Pikeville_Appalachia%20Insider.jpg) |
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| Gazebo Flooded To Roof (Coal Run City Park) (Courtesy of Appalachia Insider) |
Flooded North Mayo Trail (Pikeville) (Courtesy of Appalachia Insider) |
Rising Water Against Storage Container North Mayo Trail (Pikeville) (Courtesy of Appalachia Insider) |
Flooded Governors Park at Beech Creek Road (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
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| Flooded Walmart Parking Lot (Cassady Blvd Pikeville) (Courtesy of Appalachia Insider) |
Inundated Gas Station Cassady Blvd (Pikeville) (Courtesy of Appalachia Insider) |
Flooded Walgreens (Pikeville) (Courtesy of Appalachia Insider) |
Cassady Blvd In Front Of Tim Short Super Store (Pikeville) (Courtesy of Appalachia Insider) |
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| Flood Water Over Highway 638 At Maupin Hollow Road (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
White Street In Manchester Before Main Street (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
Water Over Part Of KY-80 And End Of Hollow Road In Manchester (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
Flooded KY-80 At Horse Creek Holiness Church (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
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| Buzzard Creek Road Just Off KY-11 In Bluehole (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
Ham Hollow Road Flooded In The 300-500 Block (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
State Highway 1999 Flooded At Pace Creek Road (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
Truck Blocked By Flood Water On Chop Bottom Road (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sheriff's Office) |
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| Lakeview Heights Subdivision (Pike County) (Courtesy of Mountain Top News) |
Abandoned Cars In Flooded Roadway At Lakeview Heights Subdivision (Pike County) (Courtesy of Mountain Top News) |
Flooded KY RT 40 In Paintsville (Johnson County) (Courtesy of Paintsville/Johnson County Emergency Management) |
Flooded KY-80 At Horse Creek Holiness Church (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sherriff's Office) |
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| Standing Water On KY RT 40 And KY RT 581 Underpass Paintsville (Johnson County) (Courtesy of Paintsville/Johnson County Emergency Management) |
Intersection Of US 23 And 119 In Pikeville (Pike County) (Courtesy of WKCB 107.1 The Killer B) |
Water Over The Intersection Of Route 1428 And 302 At Lancer (Floyd County) (Courtesy of Mountain Top News) |
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| Flooded Intersection Of Old Highway 421 And US 421 In Manchester (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sherriff's Office) |
Flooded Road South Of US 421 Near Save A Lot (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sherriff's Office) |
Behind Post Office On Old County Road (Harlan County) (Courtesy of Harlan County Sherriff's Office) |
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| Aerial Shot Of Flood-Covered Pikeville (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
Heavy Rainfall |At Triangle Park Located In Hazard (Perry County) (Courtesy of Northern Kentucky Tribune) |
Tug Valley ARH Hospital 52 Foot Retaining Wall, South Williamson (Pike County) (Courtesy of Brandon Butcher) |
Areal Photo Showing The Intersection Of US-23 And US-119 Inundated (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
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| Flooding Of Murphy Gas Station And Surrounding Businesses (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
Flood Water Approaching Walmart At Pikeville (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
Showing The Overpass Of Island Creek Road To US-23 At Pikeville (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
Backwater Flooding (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
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| Flood Waters From The Levisa Fork Meets Pikeville High School (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
Parts Of The Pikeville High School Football And Baseball Field Get Flooded (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
Areal Photo Shows Extent Of Flooding In Pikeville Near The Lowes (Pike County) (Courtesy of Justin Prater Videos) |
Flood Wall Williamson Field House Hospital (Pike County) (Courtesy of John Burchett) |
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| Water blocking KY-1428 Across Adams Middle School At Lancer (Floyd County) (Courtesy of WMDJ FM 100.1) |
Water Rescue Conducted By The Allen Fire Department (Floyd County) (Courtesy of WMDJ FM 100.1) |
Bolin Dr Looking North Towards Coxton Hollow Road (Harlan County) (Courtesy of Harlan County Sherriff's Office) |
New Allen Impacted By Flood Waters (Floyd County) (Courtesy of WMDJ FM 100.1) |
KY-80 Flooded Near Horse Creek Baptist Church (Clay County) (Courtesy of Clay County Sherriff's Office) |
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Hazard, Kentucky Flooding Drone Video |
Jackson, Kentucky Flooding Drone Video |
Pikeville, Kentucky Flooding Drone Video |
Cumberland Falls, Kentucky Flooding Drone Video |
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Coal Run Along US-23 Drone Video |
Landslide on Arlie Hall Dr. Near US-343 Drone Video |
Pikeville, Aerial Video Showing Flooding |
Flood Montague Of Flooding In Pike County |
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KSP Navigating Flooded Roadways in Floyd County |
Devastating Floods, Hazard, KY |
Beattyville, Town Flooded By River |
Flooding on US-23 At Betsy Lane |
Storm Reports
...PRECIPITATION REPORTS ENDING FEBRUARY 16TH 2025... Location Amount Time/Date Ferguson 5.27 in 0535 PM 02/16 Burnside 4.2 SSE 5.22 in 0700 AM 02/16 Praws 11 5.07 in 0521 PM 02/16 Rockcastle River 5.00 in 0530 PM 02/16 Somerset 15.2 ESE 4.96 in 0700 AM 02/16 Somerset RAWS 4.42 in 0501 PM 02/16 London 4.2 S 4.38 in 0730 AM 02/16 1.0 S Littleton 4.31 in 0445 PM 02/16 Peabody RAWS 4.27 in 0501 PM 02/16 Whitley City 3 N 4.26 in 0535 PM 02/16 2.0 SW Monticello 4.22 in 0500 PM 02/16 Meldrum 4.22 in 0530 PM 02/16 Monticello 4.18 in 0530 PM 02/16 Booneville 3.6 ENE 4.03 in 0700 AM 02/16 Jackson 1.9 SSE 4.01 in 0700 AM 02/16 Corbin 7.3 SW 3.98 in 0700 AM 02/16 Tallega 3.90 in 0445 PM 02/16 Stinnett 0.9 ENE 3.89 in 0800 AM 02/16 Carr Creek 3.72 in 0515 PM 02/16 0.7 NE Williamsburg 3.70 in 0500 PM 02/16 Yellow Creek RAWS 3.68 in 0526 PM 02/16 1.4 W North Corbin 3.64 in 0430 PM 02/16 Beattyville 4n 3.62 in 0900 AM 02/16 Williamsburg 3.60 in 0537 PM 02/16 Buckhorn Lake 3.60 in 0515 PM 02/16 Skyline 3.57 in 0800 AM 02/16 0.7 E Sand Hill 3.52 in 0530 PM 02/16 Harlan Apt 3.50 in 0535 PM 02/16 Somerset 1 SSW 3.46 in 0540 PM 02/16 Jackson 3 SE 3.46 in 0620 AM 02/16 London-Corbin Apt 3.40 in 0453 PM 02/16 Martins Fork Lake 3.37 in 0530 PM 02/16 Somerset 3.32 in 0530 PM 02/16 0.6 E Heidelberg 3.24 in 0445 PM 02/16 0.7 E Hazard 3.17 in 0530 PM 02/16 Stanton 2 W 3.15 in 0700 AM 02/16 Pineville 3.15 in 0530 PM 02/16 Wellington 3.14 in 0530 PM 02/16 Mount Sterling 3.11 in 0700 AM 02/16 Barbourville 3.10 in 0530 PM 02/16 Rio Vista 3.06 in 0530 PM 02/16 Jackson RAWS 3.06 in 0456 PM 02/16 Salyersville 3.03 in 0800 AM 02/16 1.0 S North Corbin 3.02 in 0500 PM 02/16 Fedscreek 1 SE 2.94 in 0800 AM 02/16 Stanton 1.3 SSE 2.88 in 0700 AM 02/16 NWS Jackson 2.87 in 0513 PM 02/16 Mount Sterling Apt 2.86 in 0535 PM 02/16 Olive Hill 9.0 SSE 2.86 in 0900 AM 02/16 Paintsville 1 E 2.85 in 0700 AM 02/16 Whitesburg 2.79 in 0515 PM 02/16 Morehead 6.4 NE 2.78 in 0702 AM 02/16 Whitesburg 2 SE 2.67 in 0700 AM 02/16 Cressy 2.65 in 0800 AM 02/16 Ewing 1.9 ESE 2.64 in 0700 AM 02/16 1.2 W Meta 2.62 in 0530 PM 02/16 Ewing 1.9 ESE 2.62 in 0700 AM 02/16 Pikeville 2.59 in 0538 PM 02/16 1.8 SE Napier 2.58 in 0500 PM 02/16 1.1 SE Nero 2.58 in 0530 PM 02/16 Triangle Mtn RAWS 2.57 in 0502 PM 02/16 Saxton 2.52 in 0500 PM 02/16 Inez 2 E 2.52 in 0700 AM 02/16 Cedarville 2.51 in 0430 PM 02/16 Inez 2 E 2.51 in 0700 AM 02/16 Paintsville 2.51 in 0445 PM 02/16 Big Sandy RAWS 2.49 in 0456 PM 02/16 Owingsville 4 S 2.44 in 0530 PM 02/16 1.3 SW Pikeville 2.41 in 0500 PM 02/16 Morehead 4 NE 2.36 in 0530 PM 02/16 2.6 W Fishtrap Lake 2.35 in 0445 PM 02/16 Clay City 1 WNW 2.31 in 0515 PM 02/16 0.5 NW Harlan 2.29 in 0430 PM 02/16 Cave Run Lake 2.29 in 0505 PM 02/16 2 S Walden 2.28 in 1125 AM 02/15 Monticello Apt 2.27 in 0456 PM 02/16 Middlesboro Apt 2.25 in 0515 PM 02/16 Prestonsburg 2.21 in 0445 PM 02/16 0.6 SW Jackson 2.17 in 0500 PM 02/16 Mount Sterling Apt 2.11 in 0515 PM 02/16 Koomer Ridge RAWS 2.09 in 0518 PM 02/16 Big Sandy Apt 2.08 in 0535 PM 02/16 0.6 W Farmers 2.05 in 0515 PM 02/16 Middlesboro Apt 1.85 in 0435 PM 02/16 Pike County Apt 1.69 in 0955 AM 02/16 Irvine 1.69 in 0530 PM 02/16 1.7 SE Ringos Mills 1.65 in 0515 PM 02/16 Somerset 2N 1.63 in 0500 PM 02/16 0.9 NE Barnetts Creek 1.62 in 0530 PM 02/16 Manchester 1.54 in 0532 PM 02/16 Praws 11 1.44 in 0521 PM 02/16 Monticello 4 NW 1.38 in 0530 PM 02/16 1.2 E Smith 1.36 in 0500 PM 02/16 Licking River 1.34 in 0540 PM 02/16 Booneville 2 S 1.32 in 0530 PM 02/16 Somerset 7 NNE 1.25 in 0530 PM 02/16 McKee 5 S 1.24 in 0530 PM 02/16 Whitley City 3 N 1.22 in 0530 PM 02/16 1.1 SE Nero 1.10 in 0530 PM 02/16 Barbourville 3 E 1.09 in 0530 PM 02/16 Somerset Apt 1.07 in 0535 PM 02/16 Ferguson 1.05 in 0530 PM 02/16 Irvine 1.05 in 0530 PM 02/16 1.2 W Meta 1.04 in 0530 PM 02/16 West Liberty 2 SW 1.03 in 0530 PM 02/16 Harlan 24 E 1.02 in 0530 PM 02/16 Paintsville 4 W 1.01 in 0530 PM 02/16 Somerset 1 SSW 0.98 in 0535 PM 02/16 Hindman 5 N 0.98 in 0530 PM 02/16 RACCOON 0.90 in 0535 PM 02/16 Whitesburg 2 NW 0.87 in 0530 PM 02/16 0.7 E Hazard 0.86 in 0530 PM 02/16 Yellow Creek RAWS 0.85 in 0526 PM 02/16 Barbourville 0.82 in 0530 PM 02/16 Martins Fork Lake 0.82 in 0530 PM 02/16 Somerset 0.74 in 0530 PM 02/16 Pikeville 13 S 0.72 in 0530 PM 02/16 Oneida 0.72 in 1030 AM 02/16 Manchester 0.62 in 0522 PM 02/16 Rio Vista 0.54 in 0530 PM 02/16 Pikeville 0.50 in 0528 PM 02/16 0.9 NE Barnetts Creek 0.44 in 0530 PM 02/16 Licking River 0.31 in 0535 PM 02/16 South Fork Kentucky River 0.06 in 0500 PM 02/16 Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
Environment
An unseasonably mild start to February persisted through the first week of the month, with temperatures hovering 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms. After a brief moderation into the low 50s, a dynamic system began to unfold across Kentucky. On the 14th, temperatures sat in the upper 30s, but potent southerly flow soon allowed a surge of warm air to overtake the region. By the 15th and 16th, mercury levels climbed into the low 60s, fueled by strong wind gusts reaching 52 mph at Jackson. As the synoptic pattern evolved on the night of the 14th, a trough axis developed across the area with low pressure centered over Western Kentucky. A wavering stationary front became established by the early morning hours of the 15th, providing the necessary focus for showers to stall and train over the same terrain. This boundary slowly lifted northward through the 16th, resulting in a prolonged period of heavy rainfall. London and Jackson airports recorded staggering totals, with 3.20 inches and 2.81 inches falling on the 15th alone. By the time the system exited, a widespread 2.5 to 4.5 inches of rain had saturated much of eastern Kentucky.
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| Figure 1: Surface Analysis from 10 PM February 14th until 1 PM February 16th |
Environmental analysis figures are from 1 PM (18Z), February 15th, 2025. While this is just one hour of a long-duration event, these figures show the general pattern that persisted late in the evening of February 14th, through the morning of the 16th until the arrival of the cold front which passed through between 1 AM (06Z) and 7 AM (12Z) Sunday the 16th. In Figure 2, robust 850mb moisture transport was evident with strong southwesterly vectors. This caused PWATs (Figure 3) to surge into the 1.1 to 1.3 inch range across most of eastern Kentucky--near climatological maximums for this time of the year. Figure 4 shows the strong 50-60 knot 850 mb jet advecting in that warm, high dew point (very moist) air mass into eastern Kentucky. Moisture convergence is evident in the 850 mb wind field (Figure 4) across the far southeast, close to the stalled frontal boundary, and is much more apparent in Figure 5. As that moisture converged and rose, weak but sufficient instability (Figure 6) was present for convective shower and thunderstorm updrafts in an area near and under a zone of strong 300 mb divergence (Figure 7). This nearly ideal combination of ingredients led to efficient rainfall rates and many instances of flooding across eastern Kentucky.
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| Figure 2: Moisture Transport | Figure 3: Precipitable Water | Figure 4: 850 mb Analysis |
Additional environmental data.
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| Figure 5: Moisture Convergence | Figure 6: MUCAPE(J/kg) | Figure 7: 300-mb Analysis |
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