Forecasting a "Range of Possibilities" - A New Way to Communicate Snowfall Forecasts

Snowfall amounts can vary a lot during winter storms and can be difficult to forecast, especially 2 to 3 days before the storm arrives. Until two winters ago, we have only shown what we believe to be the "most likely" snowfall amounts in our forecasts. Unfortunately, this does not provide decision makers with everything we know, including the uncertainty inherent in snowfall forecasts.

The National Weather Service in Jackson, KY is again participating in the Probabilistic Snowfall Experiment this winter. As part of this experiment, we are providing information showing the full range of possibilities for a storm, derived from a robust suite of 46 U.S. and international computer models. This information will complement our standard deterministic snowfall forecast, which incorporates all of the same computer model data but also incorporates local forecaster knowledge and experience.

The goal of this experiment is to provide our customers and partners with a range of snowfall possibilities to better communicate forecast uncertainties during winter weather events.

The graphics below provide more information on the experiment. Please visit www.weather.gov/jkl/winter to view the most up-to-date information this winter and provide feedback here.