Spring Flood Outlook for Northeastern Illinois and Northwestern Indiana

Outlook Valid
Spring 2025 (March-May)

Last Updated
February 12, 2026

Based on current conditions, the risk of flooding during spring 2026 is generally below average to near average across river basins in northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana.

The spring flood outlook is updated each March (and February, if conditions warrant). Next scheduled update is March 12, 2026.

Risk Factors for Spring Flooding

To determine the relative risk of spring flooding, numerous factors are considered including snow cover, soil moisture, and current river conditions. A significant snow cover with high water content can increase the chances of flooding once warmer weather melts the snow. Elevated soil moisture conditions reduce the amount of rainfall that is soaked up by the ground and increase the amount of water that then runs off into area streams. Above average river levels reduce the river rise required to reach flood stage, while below average river levels would require an increased amount of river rise to reach flood stage.

Spring Flood Outlook

Winter 2024-2025 Review

Spring Flood Risk Factors

Here is a general overview of spring flood risk factors across northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana river basins.

Risk Factor	Has effect on...	Current Condition	Effect on Flood Risk
Fall & Winter River Levels	Space in river for additional streamflow.	Below Average to Near Average	Decrease
Soil Moisture	Space in soil for additional infiltration.	Below Average to Near Average	Decrease/No Effect
Soil Frost Depth	Frost depth, the possibility that infiltration could be blocked by frozen ground.	Near Average to Much Above Average	No Effect
River Ice Conditions	Possibility of break-up ice jam flooding.	Widespread heavy ice cover	No Effect
Snow Cover	The amount of water available for spring melt.	Below Average	Decrease
Spring Precipitation	Amount of water headed to area rivers.	-	TBD
Spring Temperatures	Rate of melt for snow cover.	-	TBD

Valid February 12, 2026.

Current Snow Cover and Snow Water Equivalent

Modeled snow cover across area river basins ranges from 0 inches to 6 inches, which contains up to 1.5 inches of liquid water equivalent. The highest snow cover exists in the headwaters of the Kankakee River in northern Indiana.

Valid February 12, 2026. Click here for the latest snow cover information.

Current Soil Moisture and Frost Depth

Modeled soil moisture values across the area range from near average to much below average.

Frozen soils are present across the area, with depths ranging from 10 inches to 20 inches.

Valid February 12, 2026. Click here for the latest soil moisture information from the Climate Prediction Center.

Current River Conditions

River streamflow across the area ranges from below average to near average.

River ice spotters, river gauges, and satellite imagery indicate widespread river ice across the area. River ice is currently melting due to mild temperatures. A brief period of elevated flood risk due to ice break up may exist for the next few weeks until river ice completely melts.

Valid February 12, 2026. Graphics update daily. Click here for the latest streamflow conditions from the USGS. Click here for the latest river ice spotter reports.

Spring Weather Outlook

The long term (next several weeks) outlook from the Climate Prediction Center indicates above average temperatures are slightly favored. Into early March, no strong signal exists for above or below average temperatures, but a above average precipitation is slightly favored.

Although snow cover, soil moisture, and recent river levels can provide some indication of the relative risk of spring flooding, any weather system that produces heavy rainfall could cause flooding. Spring flood outlooks are not able to assess the risk of flooding due to heavy rainfall more than a week or so in advance.

Detailed Flood Outlook

Relative flood risk for river forecast locations can be viewed on the National Water Prediction Service (NWPS) page for our area.

Temperature

Temperatures for winter 2025-2026 averaged 1-3F below average across northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana. A period of very cold temperatures contributed to deeply frozen soils across the area by early February.

Valid as of February 12, 2026.

Precipitation

Precipitation for winter 2025-2026 averaged 4 inches below to 1 inch above average across northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana.

Valid as of February 12, 2026.

Snowfall

The first measurable snowfall (>0.1 inches) in northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana (right) occurred mid-November in most areas.

The season-to-date snowfall ranges from about 12 inches to about 36 inches across area river basins, with the highest snow totals along Lake Michigan in Indiana. Observed snowfall was generally below average in all areas.

River ice became widespread on area rivers by the middle of January with a few minor ice jams reported. Most ice jams did not produce any flooding.

Valid as of February 12, 2026.