National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

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Experimental...Fire Weather Planning Forecast for VA Natl Forests
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Blacksburg VA
527 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Elevated Wind Speeds Today And Tonight With Frequent Gusts...
...Above Normal Temperatures Through Friday...
...Trending Much Drier Friday... 

High pressure is centered over the southern U.S. with a trough
of Low pressure passing across the Great Lakes and New England. 
Strong westerly wind flow exists between these two features, 
and this will be the primary focus over the next 24 hours as 
the forecast area will experience breezy and warmer conditions. 
Dry weather is expected through the upcoming weekend, then
transition into a wetter pattern for next week.

Concerns to consider through Friday:

Temperatures: Readings areawide are expected to be 15 degrees
above the seasonal norm with daytime highs in the 60s to around
70 and overnight lows in the 40s. 

Wind: Strongest today and tonight with sustained speeds of 10 
to 20 mph and gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range...diminishing 
Friday. 

Humidity: Falling into the 35 to 45 percent range today...modest
recovery tonight followed by the driest conditions Friday with
minimums in the 20 to 35 percent range...the lowest readings
occurring across Virginia.

Fuels: Dry antecedent conditions are being observed across the
entire service area. No significant rain (0.25 or more) has  
occurred in the mountains since November 12th. Parts of the 
Piedmont near Danville, VA, have eclipsed an entire month (now
approaching 45 days) since a significant rain event.

VAZ007-009-010-012-015-016-022100-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST South Zone-
INCLUDING Mt Rogers and Wythe
527 AM EST Thu Dec 2 2021

                      Today        Tonight      Fri          

Cloud cover           Pcldy        Mclear       Mclear       
Precip type           None         None         None         
Chance precip (%)     0            0            0            
Min/Max Temp          59           41           62           
Max/Min RH %          49           81           39           
Wnd20ft2min/Early(mph)W 11G29      W 13G34      W  9G27      
Wnd20ft2min/Late(mph) W 14G34      W 12G32      W  7G17      
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         
Precip duration                                              
Precip begin                                                 
Precip end                                                   
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)    2610                      3130         
Transport wnd (mph)   W 35                      W 20         
Vent rate (mph-ft)    90050                     61190        
Dispersion(evening)                GOOD                      
LAL                   1            1            1            
Haines Index          3            3            4            
ADI early             57 GEN GOOD  28 FAIR      45 GEN GOOD  
ADI late              60 GEN GOOD  26 FAIR      49 GEN GOOD  
Max LVORI early       4            2            3            
Max LVORI late        1            3            2            

REMARKS...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 50s. Minimum RH 51 percent. Northwest winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s.
Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum RH 55 percent. Southeast winds
10 to 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain
showers. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 40s. Minimum
RH 56 percent. West winds 10 to 15 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 20s.
Highs in the upper 30s. Minimum RH 37 percent. Southwest winds
15 to 20 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of
rain showers. Not as cool. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 40s. Minimum RH 63 percent. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. 

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures above normal.  Precipitation near normal.

$$