Severe Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains; Heavy to Excessive Rainfall in South Central Texas
Widespread rain may produce flash flooding across the Southern Plains into the Ozarks today. Numerous instances of flash flooding are expected in south-central Texas, including the Hill Country. There will also be a risk of isolated severe thunderstorms across the southern Plains today, where an instance or two of severe wind, hail, or a brief tornado may occur.
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094
FXUS64 KSHV 202048
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
- Much needed has rain returned to the northern and western half
of the region today, before increasing across the remainder of
the area tonight/Friday.
- QPF amounts of 1-2+ inches will be highest generally
along/North of the I-30 corridor through Friday morning.
- Above normal temperatures will persist areawide through Friday
before slightly cooler conditions spill southeast into the
region for the upcoming weekend with the passage of a weak cold
front. Rain chances will return by the end of the upcoming
weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
A southwesterly flow aloft pattern remains across the northwestern
portions of the region, generally along and north of the I-30
corridor, ahead of a closed upper trough across Southern
California and the Northern Baja Region. Weak disturbances have
moved across this flow since Midnight, resulting in 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall along and north of I-30. Convection was more robust
this morning, but has since tapered down. with most of the
lingering convection over McCurtain County Oklahoma and
Sevier/Howard counties in SW Arkansas. Any additional convection
should mostly remain along and north of I-30 today. South of
I-30, upper level ridging still has a grip on the area, keeping
dry conditions in place. However, temperatures have been well
above normal today, despite mostly cloudy skies. We could see more
records today, as high temperatures top out in the low to mid 80s
this afternoon.
By this evening, the closed trough axis in Southern
California/Baja Mexico will start to take on a negative tilt, as
it opens up and ejects into the Four Corners region and
eventually the Central Plains. Widespread convection will rapidly
form and deepen across areas along and west of I-35 in Texas and
Oklahoma ahead of the associated cool front in response to this.
This convection will gradually push eastward ahead of the front,
eventually making into our CWA during the late evening hours. We
could see some isolated to widely scattered convection develop
well ahead of this convection mainly across East Texas late this
afternoon into the early evening hours, which could produce hail
and brief strong wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center continues
to highlight a Marginal Severe Weather Risk across SE Oklahoma,
adjacent SW Arkansas, a large portion of East Texas, and extreme
NW Louisiana through Friday morning. Although the risk is low,
there is sufficient instability and bulk shear in place, along
with marginal mid-level lapse rates, which could result in hail,
damaging winds, and maybe a tornado during the arrival of the
deeper convection overnight.
This system will start to lose some of its energy, as the
aforementioned upper trough ejects into the Midwest by Friday
morning. Short-term progs suggest the deeper convection will start
to fall apart as it moves into our Louisiana and South-Central
Arkansas zones during this period. Slight to low chance POPs will
remain in the forecast on Friday , as the cool front finally
pushes across the region. Expect dry weather on Saturday in wake
of the front, as a cooler and less humid airmass settles over the
region. However, this dry period will be short-lived. A much
stronger closed trough will take the same route as the previous
one on Sunday, eventually moving over the Four Corners Region and
ejecting into the Central Plains. Flow aloft will return back to
the southwest, bringing in some Pacific moisture. At the same
time, the previous cool front will return northward as a warm
front, bringing an increase in low-level gulf moisture back into
the region. By Sunday afternoon, widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop west of I-35 in Texas and Oklahoma
ahead of the associated cool front. This convection will slide
eastward into our forecast zones Sunday evening into much of
Monday next week. Locally heavy precip will be likely with this
system, which could result in excessive rainfall across the
region. The Weather Prediction has already highlighted this risk,
with a Slight Risk for a large portion of our area during this
period. The associated cold front will bring an end to the
rainfall by Tuesday. Much cooler conditions will move into the
area for the Thanksgiving Holiday, with highs in the 60s on Wed
and Thursday. Freezing temperatures could be possible in some
areas on Thanksgiving morning.
/20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
For the 20/18Z TAF period, MVFR/low VFR cigs are common across our
airspace this afternoon and this trend will generally continue
into this evening. Expect further deterioration of cigs overnight
through Friday morning with IFR/low MVFR conditions likely at all
terminals through the end of the period. Some additional rounds of
convection will be possible, especially across our NW terminals as
upper-level disturbances continue to lift NE across Texas into the
Red River Valley. Therefore, have maintained SHRA/TSRA conditions
at most sites with VCSH/VCTS farther east where convection is less
certain. Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail between 5-10 kts on
average with higher speeds/gusts invof convection later in the pd.
/19/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Spotter activation may be needed for isolated strong storms late
tonight into early Friday morning for Southeast Oklahoma, portions
of Southwest Arkansas and East Texas, along with extreme Northwest
Louisiana. /20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 81 59 77 / 60 30 20 10
MLU 65 82 62 78 / 50 50 20 10
DEQ 60 75 49 69 / 100 30 0 0
TXK 65 77 55 72 / 90 30 10 0
ELD 62 77 54 73 / 60 30 10 10
TYR 65 78 55 73 / 90 40 10 10
GGG 65 80 55 75 / 70 40 20 10
LFK 65 82 61 78 / 40 50 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...19
094
FXUS64 KSHV 202048
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
- Much needed has rain returned to the northern and western half
of the region today, before increasing across the remainder of
the area tonight/Friday.
- QPF amounts of 1-2+ inches will be highest generally
along/North of the I-30 corridor through Friday morning.
- Above normal temperatures will persist areawide through Friday
before slightly cooler conditions spill southeast into the
region for the upcoming weekend with the passage of a weak cold
front. Rain chances will return by the end of the upcoming
weekend into early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
A southwesterly flow aloft pattern remains across the northwestern
portions of the region, generally along and north of the I-30
corridor, ahead of a closed upper trough across Southern
California and the Northern Baja Region. Weak disturbances have
moved across this flow since Midnight, resulting in 1 to 3 inches
of rainfall along and north of I-30. Convection was more robust
this morning, but has since tapered down. with most of the
lingering convection over McCurtain County Oklahoma and
Sevier/Howard counties in SW Arkansas. Any additional convection
should mostly remain along and north of I-30 today. South of
I-30, upper level ridging still has a grip on the area, keeping
dry conditions in place. However, temperatures have been well
above normal today, despite mostly cloudy skies. We could see more
records today, as high temperatures top out in the low to mid 80s
this afternoon.
By this evening, the closed trough axis in Southern
California/Baja Mexico will start to take on a negative tilt, as
it opens up and ejects into the Four Corners region and
eventually the Central Plains. Widespread convection will rapidly
form and deepen across areas along and west of I-35 in Texas and
Oklahoma ahead of the associated cool front in response to this.
This convection will gradually push eastward ahead of the front,
eventually making into our CWA during the late evening hours. We
could see some isolated to widely scattered convection develop
well ahead of this convection mainly across East Texas late this
afternoon into the early evening hours, which could produce hail
and brief strong wind gusts. The Storm Prediction Center continues
to highlight a Marginal Severe Weather Risk across SE Oklahoma,
adjacent SW Arkansas, a large portion of East Texas, and extreme
NW Louisiana through Friday morning. Although the risk is low,
there is sufficient instability and bulk shear in place, along
with marginal mid-level lapse rates, which could result in hail,
damaging winds, and maybe a tornado during the arrival of the
deeper convection overnight.
This system will start to lose some of its energy, as the
aforementioned upper trough ejects into the Midwest by Friday
morning. Short-term progs suggest the deeper convection will start
to fall apart as it moves into our Louisiana and South-Central
Arkansas zones during this period. Slight to low chance POPs will
remain in the forecast on Friday , as the cool front finally
pushes across the region. Expect dry weather on Saturday in wake
of the front, as a cooler and less humid airmass settles over the
region. However, this dry period will be short-lived. A much
stronger closed trough will take the same route as the previous
one on Sunday, eventually moving over the Four Corners Region and
ejecting into the Central Plains. Flow aloft will return back to
the southwest, bringing in some Pacific moisture. At the same
time, the previous cool front will return northward as a warm
front, bringing an increase in low-level gulf moisture back into
the region. By Sunday afternoon, widespread showers and
thunderstorms will develop west of I-35 in Texas and Oklahoma
ahead of the associated cool front. This convection will slide
eastward into our forecast zones Sunday evening into much of
Monday next week. Locally heavy precip will be likely with this
system, which could result in excessive rainfall across the
region. The Weather Prediction has already highlighted this risk,
with a Slight Risk for a large portion of our area during this
period. The associated cold front will bring an end to the
rainfall by Tuesday. Much cooler conditions will move into the
area for the Thanksgiving Holiday, with highs in the 60s on Wed
and Thursday. Freezing temperatures could be possible in some
areas on Thanksgiving morning.
/20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
For the 20/18Z TAF period, MVFR/low VFR cigs are common across our
airspace this afternoon and this trend will generally continue
into this evening. Expect further deterioration of cigs overnight
through Friday morning with IFR/low MVFR conditions likely at all
terminals through the end of the period. Some additional rounds of
convection will be possible, especially across our NW terminals as
upper-level disturbances continue to lift NE across Texas into the
Red River Valley. Therefore, have maintained SHRA/TSRA conditions
at most sites with VCSH/VCTS farther east where convection is less
certain. Otherwise, S/SE winds will prevail between 5-10 kts on
average with higher speeds/gusts invof convection later in the pd.
/19/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1248 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025
Spotter activation may be needed for isolated strong storms late
tonight into early Friday morning for Southeast Oklahoma, portions
of Southwest Arkansas and East Texas, along with extreme Northwest
Louisiana. /20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 81 59 77 / 60 30 20 10
MLU 65 82 62 78 / 50 50 20 10
DEQ 60 75 49 69 / 100 30 0 0
TXK 65 77 55 72 / 90 30 10 0
ELD 62 77 54 73 / 60 30 10 10
TYR 65 78 55 73 / 90 40 10 10
GGG 65 80 55 75 / 70 40 20 10
LFK 65 82 61 78 / 40 50 30 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...19
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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