Severe Thunderstorms Possible From The Plains To The Midwest And Mid Atlantic Early This Week
The threat for severe thunderstorms will continue Monday and Tuesday from the central and southern Plains to portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic region. Some of the storms could contain damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding of low lying areas.
Read More >
808
FXUS64 KSHV 170458 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.AVIATION...
So far tonight most sites have remained at VFR, although there
are still various cloud ceilings between 4 and 12 kft. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms through most of the remainder of the night
should be more focused to the west and southwest of our region,
but LFK will have best chance of receiving temporary MVFR impacts
due to this activity. Otherwise, expect spotty showers and maybe
a stray storm or two to pop up late tonight around the region with
the majority of sites dipping ceilings into MVFR levels by
daybreak (with ceilings thereafter improving around roughly 10 to
11 am. Otherwise, expect surface winds generally between 5 and 10
mph from the south through the night and scattered showers and
thunderstorms having the best chance of occurrence at most area
sites late tomorrow morning through early tomorrow afternoon. /50/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1031 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/
UPDATE...
As generally expected, the prior semi-organized convective complex
coming into western portions of the Four State Region early this
evening did quickly weaken and fall-apart over the last few hours.
There is still some showers and embedded thunderstorms associated
with this activity lingering in western and southern portions of
the forecast areas, but there are large portions of the northern
and eastern sections of the region that are predominately dry at
this hour.
For the remainder of the night, despite mentioned recent trends,
the fact that the bottom-end of a seasonally significant upper
shortwave is moving into the region means there will likely be
some scattered precipitation persisting over the region
intermittently through the night. 850 mb theta-e advection and
moisture convergence west down the I-20 corridor to Dallas is
spurring elevated thunderstorm production currently (that is
having a tough time making inroads into our forecast area). I
anticipate at least some activity will eventually have better
success taking a foothold in at least the northern half of the CWA
later tonight, although the prospect for any hazardous weather
threat more than locally heavy rainfall or lightning is on the low
side. Temperatures are running mainly in the 65 to 70 degree range
at this hour and will likely not move much through the remainder
of the night. Wet ground and a moist boundary layer will yield
some potential for fog if skies can clear out a bit, but at this
point sufficient clearing for much dense fog is not expected. /50/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/
UPDATE...
Complex weather situation this afternoon into this evening and
available hi resolution model guidance has not been much help in
figuring out details (as this guidance has been playing catch-up
all day). Initial convection coming into the Four State Region
this morning made more headway through the region than anticipated
and now low to mid layer baroclinicity in the wake of the
previous (but now decaying) complex is helping driving movement of
another thunderstorm complex into the Arklatex and East Texas.
Remaining instability preceding the complex coming in is not
expected to be enough to sustain severe convection, even
considering atypical levels of synoptic lift and wind shear
available. So, for now, we anticipate a sub-severe thunderstorm
complex to come into the region for tonight with some uncertainty
on how far it will get before totally dissipating. The main
hazardous weather concern tonight will be from heavy rainfall in
areas that already received downpours throughout the day,
especially if complex can maintain vigor for several more hours.
/50/
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/
SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Short range guidance has struggled to keep up with the convection
that is ongoing. Have decided to go with the GFS, at least for the
next 12 to 24 hours, since it has a better handle with the MCS
that has moved through and the convection that is currently over
North Texas. Thus, precipitation chances range from chance to
likely over that timeframe. Precipitable water on this morning`s
sounding was 1.60 inches for today. This coupled with nearly
unidirectional flow is making these storms efficient rain
producers for this time of year. While there is an isolated chance
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, the greatest
threat in the short term will be heavy rainfall with isolated
flash flooding possible through Monday afternoon. By Monday
evening, precipitation chances should be on the decline as the
weak upper level trough shifts east of the area.
Have kept max temperatures tomorrow below normal with the amount
of cloud cover and rain expected while low temperatures in both
periods should be near normal. /35/
LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/
Continued stg instability but with greater uncertainty of moisture
and shear resulting in uncertain tstm potential Tuesday and
Wednesday, although low lvl winds begin to switch from the west back
to the south durg the day Tuesday. Will keep pops mainly low end
chance category under these circumstances with temps warming back to
either side of 90 degrees. ECMWF is most evident with showing
convection erupting over nw portions of cwa. The next shortwave
develops within the flow over OK into the Middle Red River Valley
Wednesday evening. Reasonable agreement exists this morning between
the GFS and ECMWF with a 30-40+ kt SWrly LLJ feeding into this next
shortwave trough Wednesday night, with large scale forcing resulting
in another potential MCS over SE OK/SW AR. Will increase pops to
high end chance wed night into thur with adequate moisture and
cooling mid lvls with extreme instability with wed night mcs
possibly developing in close proximity to cwa.
Ridging aloft will build N from Cntrl TX towards the area into the
wknd with isold pops and even warmer temps into lower to middle 90s
expected. /07/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 68 87 72 89 / 60 60 40 40
MLU 69 87 72 89 / 30 70 50 50
DEQ 67 83 68 87 / 80 50 30 40
TXK 66 85 70 87 / 70 60 40 50
ELD 67 86 70 87 / 40 60 50 50
TYR 67 87 72 88 / 80 50 30 30
GGG 68 87 72 89 / 80 50 40 40
LFK 66 88 73 91 / 80 60 20 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
20/35/50
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
000
FLUS44 KSHV 161650
HWOSHV
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-171700-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...
A line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are moving
across the East Texas Lakes and Toledo Bend area, and into
North Central Louisiana. Strong gusty winds and minor flooding may
occur before these storms exit the region by mid afternoon.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop by late afternoon through this evening over portions of
North Texas and Southern Oklahoma, which should gradually progress
east southeast into Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas later tonight. There will
be the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds to develop over these areas tonight, with the
threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...
Showers and thunderstorms will increase once again across the
region Monday, as an upper level trough slowly progresses east
across the area. An isolated severe thunderstorm threat can not be
ruled out Monday, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Localized flash flooding will be possible as well where
storms producing heavy rainfall continue to move repeatedly over
the same areas. While these showers and thunderstorms should
diminish Monday night, additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, with some of the stronger storms producing locally
gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. The approach of another
upper level disturbance over Oklahoma and the Red River Valley
late Wednesday will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and portions of the I-20 corridor of
North Louisiana Wednesday night and Thursday morning, before
diminishing from west to east Thursday afternoon.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed later today through tonight across
the region.
$$
07
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
Follow us on Twitter
Follow us on Facebook
Follow us on YouTube
SHV RSS Feed