Heavy to severe thunderstorms may bring areas of excessive rainfall and flooding over parts of the southern Plains through Friday. Hot to dangerously hot temperatures are forecast again across portions of the Pacific Northwest and southern Great Basin Tuesday.
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250
FXUS64 KSHV 100845
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
A stalled frontal boundary continues to bisect the region this
morning with little distinction along either side of the front.
If anything, slightly milder and drier air is observed north with
dew points in the 60s while lower 70s are generally found along
and south of the boundary invof of the I-20 corridor. Meanwhile,
looking aloft, water vapor imagery reveals another MCS out across
the Texas South Plains. This complex will gradually work eastward
into Central Texas later today, possibly leading to some outflow
driven convection in addition to the more typical diurnal showers
and storms south of the boundary as the day progresses. This will
be primarily south of the I-20 corridor so have trended PoPs in
that direction with dry conditions expected farther north. With
any scattered convection in our southernmost zones, can`t rule out
a few strong to marginally severe storms during peak heating this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts are both possible in this moisture-rich environment
south of the boundary. As for temperatures, afternoon highs will
generally average near climo in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
As mentioned, some of this convection could spill over into the
evening hours so did hold on to slight chance PoPs over our far SW
zones along Sam Rayburn and Toledo Bend country through roughly
midnight. Beyond that, the forecast becomes much more unsettled
across the entire region as the upper-level flow pattern trends
toward what is aptly described as a dirty and perturbed SW flow
regime. Indeed, it appears this will result in an increasingly
active period of daily convection which will largely derive its
energy from diurnal heating. Initially, this will also be aided by
low-level convergence along the sfc boundary which will eventually
begin to lift back northward as a warm front beyond Wednesday.
/19/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
As we move later in the week and the SW flow pattern persists,
expect more widespread convection with a marginal severe threat
also likely persisting given the tendency for thunderstorms to
pulse in peak heating this time of year. This diurnal trend will
carry through the remainder of the work week, and guidance is now
trending toward a continuation of this unsettled pattern through
the weekend as well given the slower exit of the associated SW
trough. Therefore, temperatures should trend a bit milder during
this timeframe as abundant clouds and increasing convection hold
the looming summer heat in check a bit longer.
By early next week, it does appear the upper trough will begin to
lift out to the NE and allow for rain chances to drop off, albeit
not entirely eliminated. So although some isolated to scattered
convection cannot be ruled out as we move into next week, it does
appear that temperatures should begin to trend back upward as rain
chances decrease overall. Until then, we are likely in store for
at least an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall through this weekend
with higher amounts more likely across our W/NW zones where some
isolated 3-4+ totals could occur.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
For the 10/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to prevail across area
airspace, particularly north of I-20, where near SKC conditions
will continue. Elsewhere, SCT high clouds will be the primary sky
cover of note. The only exception will be KLFK, which will see
lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR CIGs overnight towards
daybreak, and which stands the best chance of seeing scattered
showers and storms returning during the daytime hours. Light and
variable winds overnight will adopt a more easterly orientation
through the day, while remaining fairly light at speeds of not
much more than 5 kts and little to speak of in the way of gusts,
up to 10 kts, if any occur.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight although a
few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out in our
extreme southern zones this afternoon through early evening.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 72 91 74 / 10 10 40 20
MLU 92 69 90 71 / 0 0 30 10
DEQ 90 64 88 68 / 0 0 20 30
TXK 93 68 91 71 / 0 0 30 20
ELD 92 65 90 68 / 0 0 20 20
TYR 89 71 86 72 / 30 30 60 30
GGG 90 70 88 71 / 20 20 60 30
LFK 90 72 89 73 / 60 20 70 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26
250
FXUS64 KSHV 100845
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
345 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
A stalled frontal boundary continues to bisect the region this
morning with little distinction along either side of the front.
If anything, slightly milder and drier air is observed north with
dew points in the 60s while lower 70s are generally found along
and south of the boundary invof of the I-20 corridor. Meanwhile,
looking aloft, water vapor imagery reveals another MCS out across
the Texas South Plains. This complex will gradually work eastward
into Central Texas later today, possibly leading to some outflow
driven convection in addition to the more typical diurnal showers
and storms south of the boundary as the day progresses. This will
be primarily south of the I-20 corridor so have trended PoPs in
that direction with dry conditions expected farther north. With
any scattered convection in our southernmost zones, can`t rule out
a few strong to marginally severe storms during peak heating this
afternoon into the early evening hours. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts are both possible in this moisture-rich environment
south of the boundary. As for temperatures, afternoon highs will
generally average near climo in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
As mentioned, some of this convection could spill over into the
evening hours so did hold on to slight chance PoPs over our far SW
zones along Sam Rayburn and Toledo Bend country through roughly
midnight. Beyond that, the forecast becomes much more unsettled
across the entire region as the upper-level flow pattern trends
toward what is aptly described as a dirty and perturbed SW flow
regime. Indeed, it appears this will result in an increasingly
active period of daily convection which will largely derive its
energy from diurnal heating. Initially, this will also be aided by
low-level convergence along the sfc boundary which will eventually
begin to lift back northward as a warm front beyond Wednesday.
/19/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
As we move later in the week and the SW flow pattern persists,
expect more widespread convection with a marginal severe threat
also likely persisting given the tendency for thunderstorms to
pulse in peak heating this time of year. This diurnal trend will
carry through the remainder of the work week, and guidance is now
trending toward a continuation of this unsettled pattern through
the weekend as well given the slower exit of the associated SW
trough. Therefore, temperatures should trend a bit milder during
this timeframe as abundant clouds and increasing convection hold
the looming summer heat in check a bit longer.
By early next week, it does appear the upper trough will begin to
lift out to the NE and allow for rain chances to drop off, albeit
not entirely eliminated. So although some isolated to scattered
convection cannot be ruled out as we move into next week, it does
appear that temperatures should begin to trend back upward as rain
chances decrease overall. Until then, we are likely in store for
at least an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall through this weekend
with higher amounts more likely across our W/NW zones where some
isolated 3-4+ totals could occur.
/19/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
For the 10/06Z TAFs, VFR conditions look to prevail across area
airspace, particularly north of I-20, where near SKC conditions
will continue. Elsewhere, SCT high clouds will be the primary sky
cover of note. The only exception will be KLFK, which will see
lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR CIGs overnight towards
daybreak, and which stands the best chance of seeing scattered
showers and storms returning during the daytime hours. Light and
variable winds overnight will adopt a more easterly orientation
through the day, while remaining fairly light at speeds of not
much more than 5 kts and little to speak of in the way of gusts,
up to 10 kts, if any occur.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025
Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight although a
few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out in our
extreme southern zones this afternoon through early evening.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 93 72 91 74 / 10 10 40 20
MLU 92 69 90 71 / 0 0 30 10
DEQ 90 64 88 68 / 0 0 20 30
TXK 93 68 91 71 / 0 0 30 20
ELD 92 65 90 68 / 0 0 20 20
TYR 89 71 86 72 / 30 30 60 30
GGG 90 70 88 71 / 20 20 60 30
LFK 90 72 89 73 / 60 20 70 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....19
AVIATION...26
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IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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