Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are forecasted to develop across the Southwest U.S. Tuesday, lasting into Thursday. A slow moving, late season winter system will bring snow to portions of the Northern Plains, Central Rockies, and Great Basin through Friday. Isolated severe storms will be possible across parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday.
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000
FXUS64 KSHV 130553 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1253 AM CDT Tue Apr 13 2021
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue through much of the overnight hours,
although VFR cu cigs over SE TX are expected to spread NE into E
TX after 08Z, affecting the E TX terminals. However, cigs should
lower to MVFR prior to 12Z across E TX, before eventually
spreading into Wrn LA by mid-morning. These cigs look to persist
through much of the morning, before gradually lifting/becoming VFR
by early afternoon as a weak cold front drifts S through much of E
TX into Srn AR near the AR/LA border. While isolated -SHRA will be
possible during the morning across portions of Deep E TX into
Cntrl LA, sct convection should develop by midday/throughout the
afternoon over these areas, but confidence remains low with this
convection affecting LFK, and thus have omitted VCTS mention here
for the afternoon. Cu cigs should gradually spread ENE across the
remainder of N LA/Srn AR from late morning through the afternoon,
before MVFR cigs redevelop by mid-evening across E TX/N LA as
overrunning begins to increase atop the shallow frontal bndry.
Isolated to sct convection should begin to develop near the end of
the 06Z TAF period across E TX/NW LA, increasing across the
remainder of the region after 06Z Wednesday. Thus, have omitted
this potential from the TAFs attm, and will re-address with the
12Z TAF issuance. Lt S or Lt/Vrb winds overnight/Tuesday morning
will become light NE with the cold fropa across NE TX/SW AR by mid
to late morning, and remain Lt SSE across Deep E TX/N LA. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 912 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021/
UPDATE...
A previously stalled cold front oriented southwest to northeast
just northwest of the I-30 corridor is now showing some signs of
creeping southeast into the northwest fringes of the forecast
area. This trend should continue into the overnight and tomorrow
with the shallow surface cold front and wind shift working into
the heart of the Four State region mid to late tomorrow morning.
Isentropic lifting from southerly flow aloft over the top of this
front may, emphasizing may, get some isolated late night showers
and storms going in far northwest areas late tonight with building
moist southerly flow late tonight south of the front possibly
getting some isolated showers going in far southern zones before
the dawn deadline as well. A marginal risk for severe weather from
the Storm Prediction Center continues through the night in far NW
zones (mainly McCurtain County). Here there is still some non-
zero potential for a storm that produces marginally severe hail,
but the latest hi res CAMs paint increasingly lesser chances of
this happening. There is a marginal risk of severe storms for much
more of the region tomorrow, but that risk really should not
manifest until the midday hours or later. So this leaves a
prospect of a relatively quite night for most, if not all, of the
region with clouds gradually increasing. Temperatures will be some
ten degrees more mild than last night, as previously anticipated.
/50/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 61 81 58 68 / 10 30 60 50
MLU 57 80 58 68 / 0 40 50 70
DEQ 58 74 52 68 / 20 20 60 30
TXK 60 77 55 66 / 10 20 60 40
ELD 59 79 52 65 / 10 20 50 50
TYR 61 79 58 68 / 20 20 70 40
GGG 60 80 57 68 / 20 30 70 40
LFK 63 81 63 73 / 20 50 60 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
15
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
000
FLUS44 KSHV 121746
HWOSHV
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1246 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131800-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1246 PM CDT Mon Apr 12 2021
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...
Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
possible this evening through the overnight hours over portions
of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent
sections of Southwest Arkansas. Isolated strong thunderstorms cannot
be ruled out, with hail and locally gusty winds possible.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...
Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
Tuesday, especially over portions of Deep East Texas and
North-Central Louisiana. Isolated strong thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out over these areas Tuesday afternoon and evening, with
locally gusty winds and hail possible. Scattered showers and
possibly a few isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the
region Tuesday night through at least Saturday. However, no
additional hazardous weather is expected.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters may be needed this evening and
overnight across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas.
$$
04
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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