National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Thunderstorms Expected for Portions of the Northeast; Mountain Snow and Heavy Rain Persist in the West

Severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across the Upper Ohio Valley region into portions of the interior Northeast through this evening. Damaging winds are the main threat however, large hail and a couple of tornadoes are also possible. A Pacific storm in the West continues to persist producing mountain snow and moderate to locally heavy coastal/valley rain. Read More >

NWS Shreveport Aviation Weather Services
 
Local TAFs
LOUISIANA
Shreveport Regional (SHV) Monroe (MLU)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid

000
FTUS44 KSHV 141720
TAFSHV
TAF
KSHV 141720Z 1418/1518 20013G20KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
FM141900 20012KT P6SM SCT060
FM150900 19008KT P6SM BKN020
FM151200 17007KT P6SM OVC015=

000
FTUS44 KSHV 141720
TAFMLU
TAF
KMLU 141720Z 1418/1518 21011G17KT P6SM FEW035 BKN250
FM150900 19008KT P6SM BKN020
FM151200 19005KT P6SM OVC015=
   
TEXAS
Tyler (TYR) Longview (GGG)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KSHV 141720
TAFTYR
TAF
KTYR 141720Z 1418/1518 20015G24KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
     FM150000 18009KT P6SM FEW250
     FM150900 19008KT P6SM BKN020
     FM151200 18011KT P6SM OVC015=
000
FTUS44 KSHV 141720
TAFGGG
TAF
KGGG 141720Z 1418/1518 20014G22KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
     FM141900 20012KT P6SM SCT060
     FM150900 19008KT P6SM BKN020
     FM151200 16006KT 6SM BR OVC015=
Lufkin (LFK)
Tactical Decision Aid

000
FTUS44 KSHV 141720
TAFLFK
TAF
KLFK 141720Z 1418/1518 18012G18KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
FM150600 18010KT P6SM SCT250
FM151200 16006KT 6SM BR OVC015=
   
ARKANSAS
Texarkana (TXK) El Dorado (ELD)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KSHV 141720
TAFTXK
TAF
KTXK 141720Z 1418/1518 20013G20KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
     FM150500 18008KT P6SM BKN250
     FM151200 19009KT P6SM OVC015=
000
FTUS44 KSHV 141720
TAFELD
TAF
KELD 141720Z 1418/1518 20012KT P6SM FEW025 SCT250
     FM141900 20012KT P6SM SCT060
     FM151000 20006KT P6SM BKN020
     FM151200 18005KT P6SM OVC015=
 
Back to Top
 
Regional TAFs
LOUISIANA
Alexandria (AEX) Baton Rouge (BTR)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KLCH 141721
TAFAEX
TAF
KAEX 141721Z 1418/1518 19012G20KT P6SM SCT030 BKN150
     FM150200 17007KT P6SM SCT030 SCT150
     FM150900 17006KT P6SM BKN015
     FM151500 18009KT P6SM SCT025=
000
FTUS44 KLIX 141756
TAFBTR
TAF
KBTR 141756Z 1418/1518 18010G17KT P6SM SCT150 BKN250
     FM142300 20009KT P6SM FEW250
     FM150300 16004KT P6SM SKC
     FM151500 17008KT P6SM SCT250=
Lake Charles (LCH) New Orleans (MSY)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid

000
FTUS44 KLCH 141721
TAFLCH
TAF
KLCH 141721Z 1418/1518 20014G22KT P6SM SCT025 BKN030
FM150200 18009KT P6SM SCT030
FM150700 18008KT P6SM SCT020 BKN025
FM151500 18012KT P6SM SCT025 BKN030=

000
FTUS44 KLIX 141756
TAFMSY
TAF
KMSY 141756Z 1418/1524 16011G18KT P6SM SCT150 BKN250
FM150000 17009KT P6SM FEW250
FM150400 16004KT P6SM SKC
FM151500 16009KT P6SM SCT250=
 
TEXAS
College Station (CLL) Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KHGX 141728
TAFCLL
TAF
KCLL 141728Z 1418/1518 19013G22KT P6SM BKN030 BKN250
     FM141900 19014G22KT P6SM SCT030 BKN040
     FM142100 18012G20KT P6SM BKN040
     FM150000 17011KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250
     FM150500 17008KT P6SM FEW010 BKN025
     FM150700 17009KT P6SM BKN015=
000
FTUS44 KFWD 142050 AAA
TAFDFW
TAF AMD
KDFW 142050Z 1421/1524 18015KT P6SM SCT250
     FM151000 18012KT P6SM BKN015
     FM151700 17015KT P6SM OVC025
     FM152100 17015KT P6SM BKN050=
Dallas-Love Field (DAL) Houston-Bush Intercontinental (IAH)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KFWD 142050 AAA
TAFDAL
TAF AMD
KDAL 142050Z 1421/1518 18015KT P6SM SCT250
     FM151000 18012KT P6SM BKN015
     FM151700 17015KT P6SM OVC025=
000
FTUS44 KHGX 142045 AAA
TAFIAH
TAF AMD
KIAH 142045Z 1421/1524 14012G19KT P6SM SCT040 SCT250
     FM150100 17009KT P6SM SCT035 SCT250
     FM150600 17007KT P6SM BKN025
     FM151000 17006KT P6SM SCT015 BKN020
     FM151500 16010G18KT P6SM FEW025 BKN030
     FM151900 15013G20KT P6SM BKN035=
Houston-Hobby (HOU)
Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KHGX 142045 AAA
TAFHOU
TAF AMD
KHOU 142045Z 1421/1518 19013KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
     FM150000 17010KT P6SM SCT035 SCT250
     FM150400 17008KT P6SM BKN025
     FM151100 16007KT P6SM OVC013
     FM151500 16010KT P6SM BKN025=
 
ARKANSAS
Hot Springs (HOT) Little Rock (LIT)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KLZK 142118 AAB
TAFHOT
TAF AMD
KHOT 142118Z 1421/1518 21011G18KT P6SM BKN030
     FM150100 20008KT P6SM FEW250
     FM151000 VRB04KT P6SM BKN015 OVC025
     FM151500 19008KT P6SM BKN025=
000
FTUS44 KLZK 141735
TAFLIT
TAF
KLIT 141735Z 1418/1518 24015G25KT P6SM SCT030
     FM150100 22008KT P6SM FEW250
     FM151100 VRB04KT P6SM BKN015 OVC025
     FM151500 18008KT P6SM BKN025=
Pine Bluff (PBF)
Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KLZK 141735
TAFPBF
TAF
KPBF 141735Z 1418/1518 22012G24KT P6SM BKN040
     FM150100 22008KT P6SM FEW250
     FM151100 VRB04KT P6SM BKN015 OVC025
     FM151500 18008KT P6SM BKN025=
 
OKLAHOMA
McAlester (MLC) Oklahoma City-Will Rogers (OKC)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KTSA 141731
TAFMLC
TAF
KMLC 141731Z 1418/1518 20014G25KT P6SM FEW035 FEW250
     FM150000 17007KT P6SM BKN250
     FM151100 16008KT P6SM BKN025 BKN250
      TEMPO 1511/1515 BKN015
     FM151600 17012G18KT P6SM SCT030 BKN150=
000
FTUS44 KOUN 142204 AAA
TAFOKC
TAF AMD
KOKC 142204Z 1422/1518 19015G22KT P6SM SCT250
     FM150000 17012KT P6SM BKN250
      TEMPO 1510/1514 BKN015
     FM151400 17016G24KT P6SM BKN200
      TEMPO 1514/1517 BKN015=
Tulsa International (TUL)
Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KTSA 142242 AAA
TAFTUL
TAF AMD
KTUL 142242Z 1423/1518 22008G20KT P6SM FEW250
     FM150000 17012KT P6SM BKN250
      TEMPO 1513/1516 BKN025
     FM151600 16013G20KT P6SM SCT035 BKN150=
 
NWS-Shreveport Aviation Forecast Discussion
000
FXUS64 KSHV 142023
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
323 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

As expected, the cu field has been stubborn to scatter out over NE
TX/SE OK/SW AR/extreme NW LA this afternoon, in response to low
level theta-e ridging that persists beneath the steep capping
inversion evident on the 12Z KSHV raob. Where this ridging is
weakest, drier air aloft has been able to mix through the bndry
lyr allowing the morning cigs to scatter out considerably from
Deep E TX into NCntrl LA/Scntrl AR. May see these cigs across the
Wrn half of the CWA scatter out eventually by late afternoon/early
evening, only to return in the form of low stratus after 06Z
Monday within a 20-25kt SSWrly low level flow. As a result, even
milder and more humid conditions are expected overnight, with the
resultant cigs holding temps in the lower/mid 60s.

Very warm and humid conditions will return by afternoon Monday
with the morning cigs expected to eventually scatter out. In fact,
the large closed low depicted on the afternoon water vapor imagery
over CA and the Great Basin remains progged to drift E into the
Four Corners Region Monday, and will help to amplify ridging aloft
now easing into the Srn Plains into the Ozarks/Mid and Lower MS
Valley Monday afternoon. Should also see a considerable increase
in AC/cirrus cigs spilling atop the ridge Monday, with the warmest
temps expected to be over Lower E TX/N LA which will see greater
subsidence beneath the ridge. While dry conditions will persist
again Monday, stronger forcing associated with the low as it
begins to eject NE through the TX Panhandle should help focus
scattered severe convection by mid and late afternoon in VC of the
dryline, which should shift ENE across N TX/Srn and Ern OK during
the evening. While steeper lapse rates and greater sfc based
instability will remain focused over this area, these storms
should gradually weaken as they shift farther E into SE
OK/portions of extreme NE TX by mid and late evening, as overall
forcing weakens and instability gradually wanes. Did maintain low
to mid chance pops NW of the I-30 corridor Monday evening/night,
as convection will likely become more mesoscale based as it
outruns the dryline during the evening.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Convection to start the period Tuesday may be more focused along
any remnant mesoscale bndrys from the convection Monday night,
although the dryline should mix farther E during the day Tuesday
into Ern OK and possibly to the I-35 corridor of the DFW
Metroplex, tailing SW into the Wrn sections of the TX Hill
Country. This bndry and associated forcing along with the NE
ejecting closed low and attendant trough should focus the
potential for scattered convection through the afternoon/early
evening Tuesday. However, mean moisture is not particularly deep,
but adequate enough given the forcing and increasing
instability/shear to allow for the potential for scattered strong
to severe storms mainly focused over the existing SPC Day 4 Slight
Risk area over the NW half of the region. One thing that was noted
though is that the progs are not suggesting much on the way of
height falls over the region with the ejecting trough axis, with
the better forcing shifts farther NE away from the region during
the evening. Did scale down the higher NBM pops as convection
certainly is not a given, but did retain likely pops for SE OK/Nrn
sections of SW AR where the better forcing with the trough axis
will reside.

The air mass will be quite humid in wake of this system as low
level moisture pooling will be underway as the remnants of the dry
line becomes stationary just to our NW. In fact, min temps Tuesday
night will not fall much below 70 degrees (if at all), and will
get a head start on heating as afternoon temps climb into the mid
and possibly upper 80s. Heating may be even more enhanced from
compressional warming as the front may drift S into extreme NE
TX/Srn AR Wednesday afternoon. The front should eventually return
back N as a warm front Wednesday night (per the ECMWF) or Thursday
(GFS), with strong heating and available moisture potentially
contributing to isolated diurnal convection with the approach of a
weak shortwave trough from the W as max temps climb well into the
80s.

The remainder of the forecast is uncertain, as it relates to the
next potential cold front that had previously been advertised to
move through the region late this week. The various ensembles
suggest that a portion of this cooler air will spill S into the
region by Saturday, although some of the deterministic guidance
(namely the ECMWF) suggest that it will be delayed another day as
any significant troughing looks to remain well N of the area.
Regardless, the slow moving front should help focus an increase in
scattered convection Friday night through next weekend assuming
it is able to seep this far S through the region.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

For the 14/18Z TAFs, this morning`s developing Cu field is
increasing in coverage and density, accompanied by some passing
high clouds. These CIGs look to remain in the lower VFR range
through the afternoon and evening, again descending to MVFR
heights after 15/09Z at area terminals. South winds of 10 to 15
kts with gusts of up to 20 kts will continue through the afternoon
before dropping off to 5 to 10 kts overnight. No active weather is
anticipated to develop through the course of this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  85  68  83 /   0   0  10  30
MLU  62  84  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  63  79  63  78 /   0  10  30  60
TXK  64  82  66  79 /   0  10  10  50
ELD  61  83  64  81 /   0   0   0  40
TYR  66  83  67  81 /   0   0  20  40
GGG  65  84  67  81 /   0   0  10  40
LFK  65  85  67  84 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26

 
Back to Top
Flight Category Definitions
Category Ceilings And/Or Visibilities
VFR Greater than 3000 ft AND Greater than 5 SM
MVFR Greater than or equal to 1000 ft, but less than or equal to 3000 ft AND/OR Greater than or equal to 3 SM, but less than or equal to 5 SM
IFR Greater than or equal to 500 ft, but less than 1000 ft AND/OR Greater than or equal to 1 SM, but less than 3 SM
LIFR Less than 500 ft AND/OR Less than 1 SM
 
Back to Top

 

Southern Plains Southern Mississippi Valley
Southern Plains radar loop Southern Mississippi Valley radar loop
   
Shreveport (SHV) Base Reflectivity 0.3º Fort Johnson (POE) Base Reflectivity 0.5º
Shreveport Radar Base Reflectivity 0.3 degrees Fort Johnson (POE) Radar Base Reflectivity 0.3 degrees
   
Fort Smith (SRX) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Little Rock (LZK) Base Reflectivity 0.5º
Fort Smith (SRX) Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Little Rock (LZK) Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees
 
Fort Worth Spinks Airport (FWS) Base Reflectivity 0.5º
Fort Worth Spinks Airport (FWS) Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees
 
Back to Top

 

Latest Observed Sounding from Shreveport
 
RAP Vertical Wind Forecasts
Shreveport Regional Airport (KSHV) Monroe Regional Airport (KMLU)
Tyler Pounds Regional Airport (KTYR) Longview-East Texas Regional Airport (KGGG)
Lufkin-Angelina County Airport (KLFK) Texarkana Regional Airport-Webb Field (KTXK)
El Dorado-South Arkansas Regional Airport (KELD)
Back to Top
 
Latest Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
000
FXUS64 KSHV 142023
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
323 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

As expected, the cu field has been stubborn to scatter out over NE
TX/SE OK/SW AR/extreme NW LA this afternoon, in response to low
level theta-e ridging that persists beneath the steep capping
inversion evident on the 12Z KSHV raob. Where this ridging is
weakest, drier air aloft has been able to mix through the bndry
lyr allowing the morning cigs to scatter out considerably from
Deep E TX into NCntrl LA/Scntrl AR. May see these cigs across the
Wrn half of the CWA scatter out eventually by late afternoon/early
evening, only to return in the form of low stratus after 06Z
Monday within a 20-25kt SSWrly low level flow. As a result, even
milder and more humid conditions are expected overnight, with the
resultant cigs holding temps in the lower/mid 60s.

Very warm and humid conditions will return by afternoon Monday
with the morning cigs expected to eventually scatter out. In fact,
the large closed low depicted on the afternoon water vapor imagery
over CA and the Great Basin remains progged to drift E into the
Four Corners Region Monday, and will help to amplify ridging aloft
now easing into the Srn Plains into the Ozarks/Mid and Lower MS
Valley Monday afternoon. Should also see a considerable increase
in AC/cirrus cigs spilling atop the ridge Monday, with the warmest
temps expected to be over Lower E TX/N LA which will see greater
subsidence beneath the ridge. While dry conditions will persist
again Monday, stronger forcing associated with the low as it
begins to eject NE through the TX Panhandle should help focus
scattered severe convection by mid and late afternoon in VC of the
dryline, which should shift ENE across N TX/Srn and Ern OK during
the evening. While steeper lapse rates and greater sfc based
instability will remain focused over this area, these storms
should gradually weaken as they shift farther E into SE
OK/portions of extreme NE TX by mid and late evening, as overall
forcing weakens and instability gradually wanes. Did maintain low
to mid chance pops NW of the I-30 corridor Monday evening/night,
as convection will likely become more mesoscale based as it
outruns the dryline during the evening.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Convection to start the period Tuesday may be more focused along
any remnant mesoscale bndrys from the convection Monday night,
although the dryline should mix farther E during the day Tuesday
into Ern OK and possibly to the I-35 corridor of the DFW
Metroplex, tailing SW into the Wrn sections of the TX Hill
Country. This bndry and associated forcing along with the NE
ejecting closed low and attendant trough should focus the
potential for scattered convection through the afternoon/early
evening Tuesday. However, mean moisture is not particularly deep,
but adequate enough given the forcing and increasing
instability/shear to allow for the potential for scattered strong
to severe storms mainly focused over the existing SPC Day 4 Slight
Risk area over the NW half of the region. One thing that was noted
though is that the progs are not suggesting much on the way of
height falls over the region with the ejecting trough axis, with
the better forcing shifts farther NE away from the region during
the evening. Did scale down the higher NBM pops as convection
certainly is not a given, but did retain likely pops for SE OK/Nrn
sections of SW AR where the better forcing with the trough axis
will reside.

The air mass will be quite humid in wake of this system as low
level moisture pooling will be underway as the remnants of the dry
line becomes stationary just to our NW. In fact, min temps Tuesday
night will not fall much below 70 degrees (if at all), and will
get a head start on heating as afternoon temps climb into the mid
and possibly upper 80s. Heating may be even more enhanced from
compressional warming as the front may drift S into extreme NE
TX/Srn AR Wednesday afternoon. The front should eventually return
back N as a warm front Wednesday night (per the ECMWF) or Thursday
(GFS), with strong heating and available moisture potentially
contributing to isolated diurnal convection with the approach of a
weak shortwave trough from the W as max temps climb well into the
80s.

The remainder of the forecast is uncertain, as it relates to the
next potential cold front that had previously been advertised to
move through the region late this week. The various ensembles
suggest that a portion of this cooler air will spill S into the
region by Saturday, although some of the deterministic guidance
(namely the ECMWF) suggest that it will be delayed another day as
any significant troughing looks to remain well N of the area.
Regardless, the slow moving front should help focus an increase in
scattered convection Friday night through next weekend assuming
it is able to seep this far S through the region.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

For the 14/18Z TAFs, this morning`s developing Cu field is
increasing in coverage and density, accompanied by some passing
high clouds. These CIGs look to remain in the lower VFR range
through the afternoon and evening, again descending to MVFR
heights after 15/09Z at area terminals. South winds of 10 to 15
kts with gusts of up to 20 kts will continue through the afternoon
before dropping off to 5 to 10 kts overnight. No active weather is
anticipated to develop through the course of this forecast period.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  66  85  68  83 /   0   0  10  30
MLU  62  84  66  85 /   0   0   0  10
DEQ  63  79  63  78 /   0  10  30  60
TXK  64  82  66  79 /   0  10  10  50
ELD  61  83  64  81 /   0   0   0  40
TYR  66  83  67  81 /   0   0  20  40
GGG  65  84  67  81 /   0   0  10  40
LFK  65  85  67  84 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26

   
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
000
FLUS44 KSHV 141933
HWOSHV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
233 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-151100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
233 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across
much of the region Tuesday ahead of a weak front that will become
stationary over Eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. Damaging winds,
hail, and isolated tornadoes are the main severe weather threats,
with these storms diminishing during the evening. While dry
conditions will return Wednesday, scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be possible Thursday night and Friday along and north of the
Interstate 30 corridor of Northeast Texas and Southwest Arkansas
ahead of a cold front, shifting south across the remainder of the
region Friday night and Saturday with the front. However, the threat
for severe thunderstorms appears low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.

$$

15

 
 

 

 
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.