Winter Storm Moving Across the West; Impacting the Eastern U.S. This Weekend
Heavy snow will shift from the mountains of the West today into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this weekend while an icy mix spreads from the Appalachians into the Northeast U.S. Further south on Saturday, severe thunderstorms will be possible over the lower Mississippi Valley while excessive rainfall may bring flash and river flooding to the mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.
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460
FXUS64 KSHV 141154 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
554 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
The atmosphere over the Four State Region will quickly heat up and
moisten ahead of severe weather expected within the next 36-48
hours. This rapid modification is due to troughing over the
Intermountain West crossing the Four Corners by Friday night. With
southerly winds picking up overnight, the rate of this
modification picks up by Saturday morning as the 60-degree
isodrosotherm races north of the I-20 corridor, especially east of
Tyler, TX. As troughing shifts into West Texas early Saturday,
kinematics and instability will also become more favorable for
severe weather with adequate sfc-3km wind shear (40+ kts) and mid-
level lapse rates picking up later that evening (near 8C/km).
Separated updrafts and a discrete supercellular storm mode earlier
in the afternoon will make large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes all a more likely risk before storms congeal into a line
with the frontal boundary (slightly limiting tornado potential).
Temperature maximums/minimums will rise above normal as a result,
reaching the upper 60s/70s and upper 40s respectively. /16/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Post frontal conditions next week can be summarized as colder than
normal with some increasing chances of wintry precipitation by the
middle of next week. Aloft, a somewhat active synoptic pattern
remains in place with longwave troughing across the Eastern U.S.
and ridging across the Intermountain West setting us in a quasi-
northwesterly flow path. An embedded shortwave disturbance will
shift east across Texas while the next surface ridge shifts south
behind another frontal boundary, setting the stage for increased
wintry precipitation potential. With the timing of this event
still in the long range, confidence remains very low on
precipitation types, amounts, and chances, however, there is
building confidence on enough cold air existing north of I-20.
Temperature maximums/minimums will remain in the 40s/upper 20s and
30s through most of the week as a result of this colder air mass.
/16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon hours today, as
extensive areas of AC cigs linger across the region. However, an
increased low level moisture return will result in cigs gradually
lowering through the afternoon, with MVFR cigs
developing/spreading N across the area through the evening.
Widely scattered -SHRA will also develop by/after 00Z across Deep
E TX/Cntrl LA, and quickly spread NNE across the region by mid to
late evening, with cigs lowering further to IFR ahead of a warm
front that will begin lifting N from SE TX/S LA. LIFR cigs/reduced
vsbys will be possible by the end of the TAF period over portions
of Deep E TX/Cntrl LA while spreading N through daybreak. While
isolated -TSRA can`t be ruled out mainly after 06Z Saturday, low
confidence precludes mention in the TAFs attm, and thus have
maintained VCSH mention areawide. ESE winds 6-10kts today will
become SSE after 00Z. /15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 51 73 37 / 10 50 90 30
MLU 57 51 79 41 / 10 40 80 80
DEQ 51 42 65 27 / 0 70 80 10
TXK 54 47 69 32 / 10 80 90 10
ELD 55 44 73 34 / 10 70 100 50
TYR 56 51 71 33 / 10 40 70 0
GGG 56 49 71 33 / 10 50 90 10
LFK 58 51 73 36 / 20 40 90 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
460
FXUS64 KSHV 141154 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
554 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
The atmosphere over the Four State Region will quickly heat up and
moisten ahead of severe weather expected within the next 36-48
hours. This rapid modification is due to troughing over the
Intermountain West crossing the Four Corners by Friday night. With
southerly winds picking up overnight, the rate of this
modification picks up by Saturday morning as the 60-degree
isodrosotherm races north of the I-20 corridor, especially east of
Tyler, TX. As troughing shifts into West Texas early Saturday,
kinematics and instability will also become more favorable for
severe weather with adequate sfc-3km wind shear (40+ kts) and mid-
level lapse rates picking up later that evening (near 8C/km).
Separated updrafts and a discrete supercellular storm mode earlier
in the afternoon will make large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes all a more likely risk before storms congeal into a line
with the frontal boundary (slightly limiting tornado potential).
Temperature maximums/minimums will rise above normal as a result,
reaching the upper 60s/70s and upper 40s respectively. /16/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Post frontal conditions next week can be summarized as colder than
normal with some increasing chances of wintry precipitation by the
middle of next week. Aloft, a somewhat active synoptic pattern
remains in place with longwave troughing across the Eastern U.S.
and ridging across the Intermountain West setting us in a quasi-
northwesterly flow path. An embedded shortwave disturbance will
shift east across Texas while the next surface ridge shifts south
behind another frontal boundary, setting the stage for increased
wintry precipitation potential. With the timing of this event
still in the long range, confidence remains very low on
precipitation types, amounts, and chances, however, there is
building confidence on enough cold air existing north of I-20.
Temperature maximums/minimums will remain in the 40s/upper 20s and
30s through most of the week as a result of this colder air mass.
/16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 554 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the afternoon hours today, as
extensive areas of AC cigs linger across the region. However, an
increased low level moisture return will result in cigs gradually
lowering through the afternoon, with MVFR cigs
developing/spreading N across the area through the evening.
Widely scattered -SHRA will also develop by/after 00Z across Deep
E TX/Cntrl LA, and quickly spread NNE across the region by mid to
late evening, with cigs lowering further to IFR ahead of a warm
front that will begin lifting N from SE TX/S LA. LIFR cigs/reduced
vsbys will be possible by the end of the TAF period over portions
of Deep E TX/Cntrl LA while spreading N through daybreak. While
isolated -TSRA can`t be ruled out mainly after 06Z Saturday, low
confidence precludes mention in the TAFs attm, and thus have
maintained VCSH mention areawide. ESE winds 6-10kts today will
become SSE after 00Z. /15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 348 AM CST Fri Feb 14 2025
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 56 51 73 37 / 10 50 90 30
MLU 57 51 79 41 / 10 40 80 80
DEQ 51 42 65 27 / 0 70 80 10
TXK 54 47 69 32 / 10 80 90 10
ELD 55 44 73 34 / 10 70 100 50
TYR 56 51 71 33 / 10 40 70 0
GGG 56 49 71 33 / 10 50 90 10
LFK 58 51 73 36 / 20 40 90 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...15
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IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.