242
FXUS64 KSHV 201143
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
543 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
- Near normal daytime temperatures will continue through
Thursday, although widespread wetting rains will increase
across the region late Tuesday night through much of Wednesday.
- Confidence continues to increase for a strong arctic air
intrusion into the region Friday, as areas of overrunning
increase resulting in a potentially significant winter storm by
late Friday through Saturday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
The late evening sfc analysis indicates the leading edge of sfc
ridging drifting S into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, as evident by the
wind shift to the NNE in the 05-06Z obs. This wind shift will have
little sensible impact on temps, although drier sfc dewpoints will
continue to advect slowly S into portions of Srn AR/N LA/extreme
NE TX overnight through Tuesday morning. This sfc ridge remains
progged to shift ESE into the TN Valley and Gulf Coast states
Tuesday afternoon, with bndry lyr winds veering back around to the
ESE later in the day. This will end the dry advection regime, but
will also result in a slow uptick in dewpoints during the
afternoon. Meanwhile, a SWrly low level flow will develop Tuesday
afternoon, with low level moisture advection expected to increase
during the afternoon and evening hours. Near to slightly above
normal temps will return Tuesday afternoon as the cirrus cigs
continue to gradually thin and shift S into Deep E and SE TX into
Cntrl LA, along the base of the broad longwave trough that will
remain over the Cntrl and Ern CONUS. The short term progs continue
to depict a weak shortwave developing along the base of the trough
across the Srn Rockies late Tuesday afternoon, traversing E across
the Srn Plains into the Lower MS Valley late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. As this weakness approaches, a 40-45kt SWrly LLJ will
develop over Cntrl and E TX Tuesday night, which will result in
increased isentropic forcing that will induce scattered -SHRA
development after 06Z Wednesday over the Wrn half of the area.
Have increased pops to high chance late over the Wrn sections of E
TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, before deeper large scale forcing
increases after 12Z Wednesday in advance of the approaching
shortwave trough. Thus, convection development will become more
widespread across the region after daybreak Wednesday, with
6.0-6.5 C/km elevated lapse rates potentially contributing to
embedded isolated thunder development over portions of Deep E
TX/WCntrl LA. Did increase pops to high-end categorical generally
SE of the I-30 corridor Wednesday, with rainfall amounts generally
ranging from a quarter to half inch, with isolated higher amounts
up to an inch possible across portions of Deep E TX and Cntrl LA.
This convection should gradually diminish from W to E Wednesday
afternoon and evening, although the potential for continued
isentropic forcing may continue in the SWrly low level flow over
portions of Lower E TX/N LA/Srn AR Wednesday night and at least
the first half of Thursday. Near to slightly above normal temps
should persist through Thursday/Thursday night, as a mainly zonal
flow aloft persists beneath the Cntrl CONUS trough.
The medium range progs continue to suggest arctic sfc ridging that
will begin to build S into NE TX/SE OK/SW AR Friday afternoon,
before shifting S across the remainder of the region Friday night.
The GFS remains the most aggressive solution with the arctic
intrusion, and probably a bit too fast given the shallow nature of
this air mass, although confidence continues to increase that
subfreezing temps will eventually build S through the remainder of
the area by Saturday. Meanwhile, elevated Pacific moisture will begin
to increase Friday along the Srn branch of the jet, ahead of a
closed upper low that may begin to open up over Srn CA/Nrn Baja
and the Desert SW and become absorbed in the flow regime this
weekend. PVA and weak isentropic forcing may result in scattered
-SHRA development through the day Friday as the colder air begins
to build S, with the potential for increased overrunning N of a
frontal zone that will become enhanced along the TX and LA
coasts. Thus, warmer air atop the arctic air dome should result
in increased areas of FZRA/IP across much of the region Friday
night, persisting through much of the day Saturday. Farther N in
the deeper colder air, significant snowfall accumulations may
occur, with the precip types slowly transitioning by late
Saturday as the colder air deepens. While its too early to
discuss potential icing/snow amounts, accumulations may be
significant, with an extended duration of subfreezing temps
possible through much of the weekend, pending the extent of any
snow or icepack that develops. It is interesting to note that the all
ensemble members of the GEFS suggest a wintry mix transition,
but remains most aggressive with snow and ice accumulations due
to the much colder and faster arrival of the subfreezing temps
than the ECMWF and CMC. All interests should continue to pay
close attention to forecast changes of this potentially
significant winter storm to affect the region this weekend. /15/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
For the 20/12z TAF update...high VFR ceilings to persist through
much of the day, decreasing from 25kft to 5kft overnight. Could
see MFR ceilings across east Texas terminals by 21/10Z with -ra
conditions increasing in coverage across these terminals as well
as SHV/TXK near daybreak. Southeast winds to increase to 5 to 10
knots this afternoon and possibly remaining elevated across east
Texas overnight. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 59 45 57 48 / 0 30 100 50
MLU 55 39 55 48 / 0 10 100 80
DEQ 53 37 54 37 / 0 50 70 20
TXK 54 41 54 42 / 0 40 100 30
ELD 54 36 51 42 / 0 20 100 50
TYR 62 48 59 47 / 0 50 90 20
GGG 60 46 58 46 / 0 40 100 30
LFK 65 49 63 52 / 0 30 100 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
242
FXUS64 KSHV 201143
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
543 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
- Near normal daytime temperatures will continue through
Thursday, although widespread wetting rains will increase
across the region late Tuesday night through much of Wednesday.
- Confidence continues to increase for a strong arctic air
intrusion into the region Friday, as areas of overrunning
increase resulting in a potentially significant winter storm by
late Friday through Saturday night.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
The late evening sfc analysis indicates the leading edge of sfc
ridging drifting S into Deep E TX/NCntrl LA, as evident by the
wind shift to the NNE in the 05-06Z obs. This wind shift will have
little sensible impact on temps, although drier sfc dewpoints will
continue to advect slowly S into portions of Srn AR/N LA/extreme
NE TX overnight through Tuesday morning. This sfc ridge remains
progged to shift ESE into the TN Valley and Gulf Coast states
Tuesday afternoon, with bndry lyr winds veering back around to the
ESE later in the day. This will end the dry advection regime, but
will also result in a slow uptick in dewpoints during the
afternoon. Meanwhile, a SWrly low level flow will develop Tuesday
afternoon, with low level moisture advection expected to increase
during the afternoon and evening hours. Near to slightly above
normal temps will return Tuesday afternoon as the cirrus cigs
continue to gradually thin and shift S into Deep E and SE TX into
Cntrl LA, along the base of the broad longwave trough that will
remain over the Cntrl and Ern CONUS. The short term progs continue
to depict a weak shortwave developing along the base of the trough
across the Srn Rockies late Tuesday afternoon, traversing E across
the Srn Plains into the Lower MS Valley late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. As this weakness approaches, a 40-45kt SWrly LLJ will
develop over Cntrl and E TX Tuesday night, which will result in
increased isentropic forcing that will induce scattered -SHRA
development after 06Z Wednesday over the Wrn half of the area.
Have increased pops to high chance late over the Wrn sections of E
TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR, before deeper large scale forcing
increases after 12Z Wednesday in advance of the approaching
shortwave trough. Thus, convection development will become more
widespread across the region after daybreak Wednesday, with
6.0-6.5 C/km elevated lapse rates potentially contributing to
embedded isolated thunder development over portions of Deep E
TX/WCntrl LA. Did increase pops to high-end categorical generally
SE of the I-30 corridor Wednesday, with rainfall amounts generally
ranging from a quarter to half inch, with isolated higher amounts
up to an inch possible across portions of Deep E TX and Cntrl LA.
This convection should gradually diminish from W to E Wednesday
afternoon and evening, although the potential for continued
isentropic forcing may continue in the SWrly low level flow over
portions of Lower E TX/N LA/Srn AR Wednesday night and at least
the first half of Thursday. Near to slightly above normal temps
should persist through Thursday/Thursday night, as a mainly zonal
flow aloft persists beneath the Cntrl CONUS trough.
The medium range progs continue to suggest arctic sfc ridging that
will begin to build S into NE TX/SE OK/SW AR Friday afternoon,
before shifting S across the remainder of the region Friday night.
The GFS remains the most aggressive solution with the arctic
intrusion, and probably a bit too fast given the shallow nature of
this air mass, although confidence continues to increase that
subfreezing temps will eventually build S through the remainder of
the area by Saturday. Meanwhile, elevated Pacific moisture will begin
to increase Friday along the Srn branch of the jet, ahead of a
closed upper low that may begin to open up over Srn CA/Nrn Baja
and the Desert SW and become absorbed in the flow regime this
weekend. PVA and weak isentropic forcing may result in scattered
-SHRA development through the day Friday as the colder air begins
to build S, with the potential for increased overrunning N of a
frontal zone that will become enhanced along the TX and LA
coasts. Thus, warmer air atop the arctic air dome should result
in increased areas of FZRA/IP across much of the region Friday
night, persisting through much of the day Saturday. Farther N in
the deeper colder air, significant snowfall accumulations may
occur, with the precip types slowly transitioning by late
Saturday as the colder air deepens. While its too early to
discuss potential icing/snow amounts, accumulations may be
significant, with an extended duration of subfreezing temps
possible through much of the weekend, pending the extent of any
snow or icepack that develops. It is interesting to note that the all
ensemble members of the GEFS suggest a wintry mix transition,
but remains most aggressive with snow and ice accumulations due
to the much colder and faster arrival of the subfreezing temps
than the ECMWF and CMC. All interests should continue to pay
close attention to forecast changes of this potentially
significant winter storm to affect the region this weekend. /15/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
For the 20/12z TAF update...high VFR ceilings to persist through
much of the day, decreasing from 25kft to 5kft overnight. Could
see MFR ceilings across east Texas terminals by 21/10Z with -ra
conditions increasing in coverage across these terminals as well
as SHV/TXK near daybreak. Southeast winds to increase to 5 to 10
knots this afternoon and possibly remaining elevated across east
Texas overnight. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1231 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026
Spotter activation is not expected through at least Thursday. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 59 45 57 48 / 0 30 100 50
MLU 55 39 55 48 / 0 10 100 80
DEQ 53 37 54 37 / 0 50 70 20
TXK 54 41 54 42 / 0 40 100 30
ELD 54 36 51 42 / 0 20 100 50
TYR 62 48 59 47 / 0 50 90 20
GGG 60 46 58 46 / 0 40 100 30
LFK 65 49 63 52 / 0 30 100 50
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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