National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Thunderstorms Possible From The Plains To The Midwest And Mid Atlantic Early This Week

The threat for severe thunderstorms will continue Monday and Tuesday from the central and southern Plains to portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Mid Atlantic region. Some of the storms could contain damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Heavy rainfall could also lead to flash flooding of low lying areas. Read More >

NWS Shreveport Aviation Weather Services
 
Local TAFs
LOUISIANA
Shreveport Regional (SHV) Monroe (MLU)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid

000
FTUS44 KSHV 170540
TAFSHV
TAF
KSHV 170540Z 1706/1806 20009G20KT P6SM FEW200 OVC270
FM170900 18005KT P6SM VCSH BKN020 OVC040
FM171600 22012KT P6SM VCTS SCT020 BKN035CB
FM172000 23013G21KT P6SM SCT030 BKN050
FM180000 24005KT P6SM FEW030 SCT050=

000
FTUS44 KSHV 170540
TAFMLU
TAF
KMLU 170540Z 1706/1806 VRB04KT P6SM SCT110
FM171200 16005KT 6SM BR VCSH BKN015 OVC060
FM171600 20010KT P6SM VCTS SCT025 BKN040CB
FM180000 19005KT P6SM FEW025 SCT040=
   
TEXAS
Tyler (TYR) Longview (GGG)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KSHV 170540
TAFTYR
TAF
KTYR 170540Z 1706/1806 14006KT P6SM VCSH SCT040
     FM171200 18008KT 6SM BR VCSH OVC020
     FM171600 22008KT P6SM VCTS SCT025 BKN040CB
     FM171900 25009G17KT P6SM SCT030 SCT050
     FM180000 22006KT P6SM FEW050=
000
FTUS44 KSHV 170540
TAFGGG
TAF
KGGG 170540Z 1706/1806 19011KT P6SM VCSH SCT050
     FM171100 17008KT P6SM BKN019 OVC040
     FM171600 22010G18KT P6SM VCTS SCT020 BKN040CB
     FM171900 24011G19KT P6SM SCT030 SCT050
     FM180000 19005KT P6SM FEW050=
Lufkin (LFK)
Tactical Decision Aid

000
FTUS44 KSHV 170540
TAFLFK
TAF
KLFK 170540Z 1706/1806 13009KT P6SM FEW060 SCT110
FM171100 12005KT 6SM BR VCSH BKN025 OVC050
FM171500 21010KT P6SM VCTS SCT025 BKN040CB
FM171900 23010G19KT P6SM SCT030 SCT050
FM180000 16005KT P6SM FEW050=
   
ARKANSAS
Texarkana (TXK) El Dorado (ELD)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KSHV 170540
TAFTXK
TAF
KTXK 170540Z 1706/1806 18005KT P6SM -RA OVC007
     FM170800 20006KT P6SM VCSH SCT010 BKN020
     FM171200 20008KT 6SM BR VCSH BKN010 OVC025
     FM171600 20010KT P6SM VCTS SCT025 BKN040CB
     FM172000 22010G17KT P6SM FEW025 SCT040
     FM180000 24008KT P6SM FEW030 SCT050=
000
FTUS44 KSHV 170540
TAFELD
TAF
KELD 170540Z 1706/1806 11009KT P6SM SKC
     FM171000 17006KT P6SM VCSH BKN020
     FM171600 19008KT P6SM VCTS SCT025 BKN040CB
     FM172000 20009KT P6SM SCT030 SCT050
     FM180000 18005KT P6SM FEW030 BKN050=
 
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Regional TAFs
LOUISIANA
Alexandria (AEX) Baton Rouge (BTR)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
680
FTUS44 KLCH 170520
TAFAEX
TAF
KAEX 170520Z 1706/1806 VRB04KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN100
     FM170800 VRB04KT P6SM VCTS SCT025CB BKN040
      TEMPO 1708/1712 VRB15G25KT 3SM SHRA BR BKN025
     FM171200 15009KT P6SM VCTS SCT025CB BKN040
      TEMPO 1714/1718 3SM SHRA BKN025
     FM171800 20011KT P6SM VCTS SCT025CB BKN040 PROB30 1718/1724 3SM
      SHRA BR BKN025=
386
FTUS44 KLIX 170520
TAFBTR
TAF
KBTR 170520Z 1706/1806 35003KT P6SM SCT250
     FM171000 VRB03KT P6SM BKN070
     FM171200 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH BKN130
     FM171500 16008KT P6SM VCTS BKN060CB
     FM172100 17007KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS BKN090CB=
Lake Charles (LCH) New Orleans (MSY)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid

141
FTUS44 KLCH 170520
TAFLCH
TAF
KLCH 170520Z 1706/1806 VRB06KT P6SM VCTS SCT025CB BKN040
TEMPO 1706/1710 VRB15G25KT 3SM SHRA BR BKN025
FM171000 13006KT P6SM VCTS SCT025CB BKN040
TEMPO 1710/1712 VRB15G25KT 3SM SHRA BR BKN025
FM171200 17009KT P6SM VCTS SCT025CB BKN040 PROB30 1718/1724 3SM
SHRA BR BKN025=

000
FTUS44 KLIX 170520
TAFMSY
TAF
KMSY 170520Z 1706/1812 VRB03KT P6SM FEW015 FEW110 BKN250
FM171500 17006KT P6SM VCTS SCT100CB
FM172100 15006KT 5SM -SHRA VCTS BKN080CB
FM180300 16005KT P6SM SCT070=
 
TEXAS
College Station (CLL) Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KHGX 170642 AAA
TAFCLL
TAF AMD
KCLL 170642Z 1707/1806 14011KT P6SM -RA BKN120
      TEMPO 1707/1710 VRB15KT 4SM TSRA BKN030CB OVC080
     FM171000 VRB05KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN250
     FM171600 20011KT P6SM SCT025 BKN035 BKN090
     FM172100 17010KT P6SM SCT017 BKN050
     FM172300 16010KT P6SM FEW024 SCT050=
000
FTUS44 KFWD 170624 AAA
TAFDFW
TAF AMD
KDFW 170624Z 1706/1812 17011KT P6SM SCT010 BKN070
     FM170900 28005KT P6SM BKN011
     FM171600 32009KT P6SM SCT025 BKN060
     FM172200 02006KT P6SM SCT250=
Dallas-Love Field (DAL) Houston-Bush Intercontinental (IAH)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KFWD 170624 AAA
TAFDAL
TAF AMD
KDAL 170624Z 1706/1806 16011KT P6SM SCT010 BKN070
     FM170900 28005KT P6SM BKN011
     FM171600 32009KT P6SM SCT025 BKN060
     FM172200 02006KT P6SM SCT250=
512
FTUS44 KHGX 170636 AAA
TAFIAH
TAF AMD
KIAH 170636Z 1707/1812 15009KT P6SM -RA VCTS FEW035CB FEW080 OVC120
      TEMPO 1707/1709 5SM -TSRA BKN030CB OVC090
     FM171000 11007KT P6SM VCSH BKN080 OVC150
     FM171400 VRB05KT P6SM SCT025 BKN050 OVC100
     FM172000 11006KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN100
     FM180200 16007KT P6SM SCT050
     FM181000 17005KT P6SM VCSH SCT020=
Houston-Hobby (HOU)
Tactical Decision Aid
743
FTUS44 KHGX 170634 AAA
TAFHOU
TAF AMD
KHOU 170634Z 1707/1806 VRB06KT P6SM -RA FEW016 SCT040 OVC090
      TEMPO 1707/1709 VRB15KT 4SM -TSRA BKN035CB OVC080
     FM171000 11007KT P6SM SCT025 OVC100
      TEMPO 1710/1712 6SM -SHRA OVC040
     FM171600 VRB05KT P6SM BKN025 BKN050
     FM171900 11006KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 BKN100
     FM172100 16007KT P6SM VCTS SCT040CB
     FM180200 17005KT P6SM SCT030=
 
ARKANSAS
Hot Springs (HOT) Little Rock (LIT)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
393
FTUS44 KLZK 170520
TAFHOT
TAF
KHOT 170520Z 1706/1806 17007KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 BKN035
     FM171200 VRB03KT 4SM BR VCSH BKN015 OVC025
     FM171800 17006KT P6SM VCSH BKN025 OVC040 PROB30 1718/1724 TS
      BKN025CB=
000
FTUS44 KLZK 170520
TAFLIT
TAF
KLIT 170520Z 1706/1806 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH BKN020
     FM171530 19005KT P6SM SHRA VCTS SCT020CB BKN040 PROB30
      1718/1724 TS BKN020CB=
Pine Bluff (PBF)
Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KLZK 170520
TAFPBF
TAF
KPBF 170520Z 1706/1806 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH BKN020
     FM171530 19005KT P6SM SHRA VCTS SCT020CB BKN040 PROB30
      1718/1724 TS BKN020CB=
 
OKLAHOMA
McAlester (MLC) Oklahoma City-Will Rogers (OKC)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
176
FTUS44 KTSA 170520
TAFMLC
TAF
KMLC 170520Z 1706/1806 00000KT P6SM VCSH BKN025
     FM171000 VRB03KT 6SM BR OVC015
     FM171700 31005KT P6SM BKN025
     FM172100 33007KT P6SM BKN050
     FM180200 35002KT P6SM BKN250=
151
FTUS44 KOUN 170525
TAFOKC
TAF
KOKC 170525Z 1706/1806 33007KT P6SM SCT020 OVC150
      TEMPO 1708/1712 5SM BR BKN007
     FM171400 35007KT P6SM SCT025 BKN250
     FM172000 33008KT P6SM BKN250=
Tulsa International (TUL)
Tactical Decision Aid
000
FTUS44 KTSA 170702 AAA
TAFTUL
TAF AMD
KTUL 170702Z 1707/1806 00000KT P6SM VCSH BKN015
      TEMPO 1707/1711 3SM -SHRA BR BKN007
     FM171100 VRB04KT 6SM BR OVC009
     FM171700 36005KT P6SM BKN025
     FM172100 34008KT P6SM BKN050
     FM180200 02004KT P6SM BKN250=
 
NWS-Shreveport Aviation Forecast Discussion
 
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Flight Category Definitions
Category Ceilings And/Or Visibilities
VFR Greater than 3000 ft AND Greater than 5 SM
MVFR Greater than or equal to 1000 ft, but less than or equal to 3000 ft AND/OR Greater than or equal to 3 SM, but less than or equal to 5 SM
IFR Greater than or equal to 500 ft, but less than 1000 ft AND/OR Greater than or equal to 1 SM, but less than 3 SM
LIFR Less than 500 ft AND/OR Less than 1 SM
 
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Southern Plains Southern Mississippi Valley
Southern Plains radar loop Southern Mississippi Valley radar loop
   
Shreveport (SHV) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Shreveport (SHV) Base Velocity 0.5º
Shreveport Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Shreveport Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
   
Fort Polk (POE) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Fort Polk (POE) Base Velocity 0.5º
Fort Polk Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Fort Polk Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
 
Fort Smith (SRX) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Fort Smith (SRX) Base Velocity 0.5º
Fort Smith Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Fort Smith Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
 
Little Rock (LZK) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Little Rock (LZK) Base Velocity 0.5º
Little Rock Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Little Rock Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
 
Inola (INX) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Inola (INX) Base Velocity 0.5º
Inola Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Inola Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
 
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Latest Observed Sounding from Shreveport
 
RAP Vertical Wind Forecasts
Shreveport Regional Airport (SHV) Monroe Regional Airport (MLU)
RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Shreveport RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Monroe
Tyler Pounds Regional Airport (TYR) Longview-East Texas Regional Airport (GGG)
RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Tyler RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Longview
Lufkin-Angelina County Airport (LFK) Texarkana Regional Airport-Webb Field (TXK)
RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Lufkin RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for TXK
El Dorado-South Arkansas Regional Airport (ELD)
RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for El Dorado
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Latest Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
808
FXUS64 KSHV 170458 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1158 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019


.AVIATION...

So far tonight most sites have remained at VFR, although there
are still various cloud ceilings between 4 and 12 kft. Showers and
embedded thunderstorms through most of the remainder of the night
should be more focused to the west and southwest of our region,
but LFK will have best chance of receiving temporary MVFR impacts
due to this activity. Otherwise, expect spotty showers and maybe
a stray storm or two to pop up late tonight around the region with
the majority of sites dipping ceilings into MVFR levels by
daybreak (with ceilings thereafter improving around roughly 10 to
11 am. Otherwise, expect surface winds generally between 5 and 10
mph from the south through the night and scattered showers and
thunderstorms having the best chance of occurrence at most area
sites late tomorrow morning through early tomorrow afternoon. /50/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1031 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

UPDATE...

As generally expected, the prior semi-organized convective complex
coming into western portions of the Four State Region early this
evening did quickly weaken and fall-apart over the last few hours.
There is still some showers and embedded thunderstorms associated
with this activity lingering in western and southern portions of
the forecast areas, but there are large portions of the northern
and eastern sections of the region that are predominately dry at
this hour.

For the remainder of the night, despite mentioned recent trends,
the fact that the bottom-end of a seasonally significant upper
shortwave is moving into the region means there will likely be
some scattered precipitation persisting over the region
intermittently through the night. 850 mb theta-e advection and
moisture convergence west down the I-20 corridor to Dallas is
spurring elevated thunderstorm production currently (that is
having a tough time making inroads into our forecast area). I
anticipate at least some activity will eventually have better
success taking a foothold in at least the northern half of the CWA
later tonight, although the prospect for any hazardous weather
threat more than locally heavy rainfall or lightning is on the low
side. Temperatures are running mainly in the 65 to 70 degree range
at this hour and will likely not move much through the remainder
of the night. Wet ground and a moist boundary layer will yield
some potential for fog if skies can clear out a bit, but at this
point sufficient clearing for much dense fog is not expected. /50/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 733 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

UPDATE...

Complex weather situation this afternoon into this evening and
available hi resolution model guidance has not been much help in
figuring out details (as this guidance has been playing catch-up
all day). Initial convection coming into the Four State Region
this morning made more headway through the region than anticipated
and now low to mid layer baroclinicity in the wake of the
previous (but now decaying) complex is helping driving movement of
another thunderstorm complex into the Arklatex and East Texas.
Remaining instability preceding the complex coming in is not
expected to be enough to sustain severe convection, even
considering atypical levels of synoptic lift and wind shear
available. So, for now, we anticipate a sub-severe thunderstorm
complex to come into the region for tonight with some uncertainty
on how far it will get before totally dissipating. The main
hazardous weather concern tonight will be from heavy rainfall in
areas that already received downpours throughout the day,
especially if complex can maintain vigor for several more hours.
/50/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 329 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Monday night/
Short range guidance has struggled to keep up with the convection
that is ongoing. Have decided to go with the GFS, at least for the
next 12 to 24 hours, since it has a better handle with the MCS
that has moved through and the convection that is currently over
North Texas. Thus, precipitation chances range from chance to
likely over that timeframe. Precipitable water on this morning`s
sounding was 1.60 inches for today. This coupled with nearly
unidirectional flow is making these storms efficient rain
producers for this time of year. While there is an isolated chance
for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, the greatest
threat in the short term will be heavy rainfall with isolated
flash flooding possible through Monday afternoon. By Monday
evening, precipitation chances should be on the decline as the
weak upper level trough shifts east of the area.

Have kept max temperatures tomorrow below normal with the amount
of cloud cover and rain expected while low temperatures in both
periods should be near normal. /35/

LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Sunday/

Continued stg instability but with greater uncertainty of moisture
and shear resulting in uncertain tstm potential Tuesday and
Wednesday, although low lvl winds begin to switch from the west back
to the south durg the day Tuesday. Will keep pops mainly low end
chance category under these circumstances with temps warming back to
either side of 90 degrees. ECMWF is most evident with showing
convection erupting over nw portions of cwa. The next shortwave
develops within the flow over OK into the Middle Red River Valley
Wednesday evening. Reasonable agreement exists this morning between
the GFS and ECMWF with a 30-40+ kt SWrly LLJ feeding into this next
shortwave trough Wednesday night, with large scale forcing resulting
in another potential MCS over SE OK/SW AR. Will increase pops to
high end chance wed night into thur with adequate moisture and
cooling mid lvls with extreme instability with wed night mcs
possibly developing in close proximity to cwa.

Ridging aloft will build N from Cntrl TX towards the area into the
wknd with isold pops and even warmer temps into lower to middle 90s
expected. /07/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  87  72  89 /  60  60  40  40
MLU  69  87  72  89 /  30  70  50  50
DEQ  67  83  68  87 /  80  50  30  40
TXK  66  85  70  87 /  70  60  40  50
ELD  67  86  70  87 /  40  60  50  50
TYR  67  87  72  88 /  80  50  30  30
GGG  68  87  72  89 /  80  50  40  40
LFK  66  88  73  91 /  80  60  20  30

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

20/35/50


   
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
000
FLUS44 KSHV 161650
HWOSHV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-171700-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1150 AM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

A line of strong thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall are moving
across the East Texas Lakes and Toledo Bend area, and into
North Central Louisiana. Strong gusty winds and minor flooding may
occur before these storms exit the region by mid afternoon.
However, additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to
redevelop by late afternoon through this evening over portions of
North Texas and Southern Oklahoma, which should gradually progress
east southeast into Southeast Oklahoma, Northeast Texas, and
adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas later tonight. There will
be the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms with
damaging winds to develop over these areas tonight, with the
threat for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Showers and thunderstorms will increase once again across the
region Monday, as an upper level trough slowly progresses east
across the area. An isolated severe thunderstorm threat can not be
ruled out Monday, with damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall
possible. Localized flash flooding will be possible as well where
storms producing heavy rainfall continue to move repeatedly over
the same areas. While these showers and thunderstorms should
diminish Monday night, additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the region Tuesday and
Wednesday, with some of the stronger storms producing locally
gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. The approach of another
upper level disturbance over Oklahoma and the Red River Valley
late Wednesday will result in scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast
Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and portions of the I-20 corridor of
North Louisiana Wednesday night and Thursday morning, before
diminishing from west to east Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur
radio operators, may be needed later today through tonight across
the region.

$$

07

 
 

 

 
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.