Excessive Heat for the East; Excessive Rainfall for the Southwest; Severe Weather for the Center of the Nation
Extreme HeatRisk impacts will expand from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. This level of HeatRisk is known for being rare and/or long duration with little to no overnight relief, and affects anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Severe weather potential continues from the Great Lakes to the Central Plains today. Heavy rainfall for Southwest on Tuesday.
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511
FXUS64 KSHV 232017
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
317 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Low-level onshore flow on the western periphery of a broad surface
ridge over the Southeast CONUS continues to bring sufficient
moisture and instability northward for isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection. A weak wave moving west across the
northern Gulf is providing just enough forcing to aid in the
development of the showers and storms. Coverage should generally
remain the highest across East Texas, possibly as far north as
Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas,
where subsidence is the weakest and the onshore flow is more
southerly and direct. Showers and thunderstorms should persist
into mid, possibly late this evening, but the precip is expected
to gradually diminish after sunset as daytime heating wanes.
Tuesday will likely be very similar. More hot and humid conditions
are anticipated. Peak heat index values will likely once again
climb to between 105 and 109 degrees F across much of Louisiana,
most of Southwest Arkansas, and portions of East Texas. Confidence
is moderate to high that a Heat Advisory will be needed for the
same areas as today. However, with temperatures expected to be
another degree or two warmer, this should expand criteria level
heat indices into portions of McCurtain and Little River Counties.
Therefore, Tuesday`s Heat Advisory adds these two areas.
Showers and thunderstorms, while still isolated to widely
scattered, are expected to affect a much greater portion of the
forecast area on Tuesday as another weak wave rotates around the
upper level ridge, but moves directly over the ArkLaTex this time.
However, convection should still remain largely diurnally-driven
and should gradually dissipate after sunset.
Nuttall
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
I`m starting to feel like a broken record. Heat and humidity will
be the primary forecast concerns through next Sunday. The center
of the strong upper level ridge is expected to retrograde
southwest into Kentucky and Tennessee during the middle of the
work week. The overall effect will be to confine rain chances to
only our southernmost counties of Deep East Texas eastward into
Central Louisiana. Combined with the increase in subsidence,
temperatures should gradually climb upward. By the end of the work
week, daytime highs in several locations across Louisiana and
Southern Arkansas should be in the upper 90s and possibly at the
century mark. Heat headlines will probably continue to be needed
for much of the forecast area through at least next Sunday. After
Friday, rain chances should remain confined to locations southeast
of a line from Lufkin TX to Monroe LA. Medium range models are in
decent agreement that the upper ridge should weaken and flatten by
the end of the weekend and into early next week. However, the
center of the ridge is progged to be directly over the forecast
area, which will keep hot temperatures and generally low rain
chances in the forecast.
Nuttall
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
For the 23/18Z TAFs, widespread lower VFR CIGs prevail as a Cu
field overspreads area airspace. Through the late afternoon and
early evening hours, scattered pop up thunderstorms will be
possible, particular across east Texas and adjacent zones, but
coverage should be less than yesterday. Cu field expected to
dissipate shortly after sundown, with VFR high clouds prevailing
overnight before brief CIG/VIS reductions return shortly before
daybreak at sheltered terminals. Light south southeast winds will
become variable and nearly calm overnight before picking up again
during the day tomorrow. A few gusts of up to 10 kts will be
possible across east Texas early in this forecast period.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 96 77 96 / 20 30 10 10
MLU 75 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 10
DEQ 72 93 72 93 / 10 20 0 10
TXK 75 96 75 96 / 20 20 0 10
ELD 74 95 73 96 / 10 20 0 10
TYR 74 92 74 92 / 20 20 0 20
GGG 74 93 73 93 / 20 30 0 20
LFK 74 94 73 92 / 20 30 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ059>061-
070>073.
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ060-061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ097-112-126-
138-151>153-165>167.
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138-
151>153-165>167.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26
511
FXUS64 KSHV 232017
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
317 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
Low-level onshore flow on the western periphery of a broad surface
ridge over the Southeast CONUS continues to bring sufficient
moisture and instability northward for isolated to widely
scattered diurnal convection. A weak wave moving west across the
northern Gulf is providing just enough forcing to aid in the
development of the showers and storms. Coverage should generally
remain the highest across East Texas, possibly as far north as
Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas,
where subsidence is the weakest and the onshore flow is more
southerly and direct. Showers and thunderstorms should persist
into mid, possibly late this evening, but the precip is expected
to gradually diminish after sunset as daytime heating wanes.
Tuesday will likely be very similar. More hot and humid conditions
are anticipated. Peak heat index values will likely once again
climb to between 105 and 109 degrees F across much of Louisiana,
most of Southwest Arkansas, and portions of East Texas. Confidence
is moderate to high that a Heat Advisory will be needed for the
same areas as today. However, with temperatures expected to be
another degree or two warmer, this should expand criteria level
heat indices into portions of McCurtain and Little River Counties.
Therefore, Tuesday`s Heat Advisory adds these two areas.
Showers and thunderstorms, while still isolated to widely
scattered, are expected to affect a much greater portion of the
forecast area on Tuesday as another weak wave rotates around the
upper level ridge, but moves directly over the ArkLaTex this time.
However, convection should still remain largely diurnally-driven
and should gradually dissipate after sunset.
Nuttall
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
I`m starting to feel like a broken record. Heat and humidity will
be the primary forecast concerns through next Sunday. The center
of the strong upper level ridge is expected to retrograde
southwest into Kentucky and Tennessee during the middle of the
work week. The overall effect will be to confine rain chances to
only our southernmost counties of Deep East Texas eastward into
Central Louisiana. Combined with the increase in subsidence,
temperatures should gradually climb upward. By the end of the work
week, daytime highs in several locations across Louisiana and
Southern Arkansas should be in the upper 90s and possibly at the
century mark. Heat headlines will probably continue to be needed
for much of the forecast area through at least next Sunday. After
Friday, rain chances should remain confined to locations southeast
of a line from Lufkin TX to Monroe LA. Medium range models are in
decent agreement that the upper ridge should weaken and flatten by
the end of the weekend and into early next week. However, the
center of the ridge is progged to be directly over the forecast
area, which will keep hot temperatures and generally low rain
chances in the forecast.
Nuttall
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
For the 23/18Z TAFs, widespread lower VFR CIGs prevail as a Cu
field overspreads area airspace. Through the late afternoon and
early evening hours, scattered pop up thunderstorms will be
possible, particular across east Texas and adjacent zones, but
coverage should be less than yesterday. Cu field expected to
dissipate shortly after sundown, with VFR high clouds prevailing
overnight before brief CIG/VIS reductions return shortly before
daybreak at sheltered terminals. Light south southeast winds will
become variable and nearly calm overnight before picking up again
during the day tomorrow. A few gusts of up to 10 kts will be
possible across east Texas early in this forecast period.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025
While diurnally driven convection will likely result in thunderstorms
capable of producing strong wind gusts, the need for Spotter
activation resulting from widespread severe thunderstorms is not
likely through tonight.
13
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 96 77 96 / 20 30 10 10
MLU 75 95 76 96 / 10 20 10 10
DEQ 72 93 72 93 / 10 20 0 10
TXK 75 96 75 96 / 20 20 0 10
ELD 74 95 73 96 / 10 20 0 10
TYR 74 92 74 92 / 20 20 0 20
GGG 74 93 73 93 / 20 30 0 20
LFK 74 94 73 92 / 20 30 10 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ059>061-
070>073.
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ060-061-070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ001>006-
010>014-017>022.
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 6 PM CDT Tuesday for TXZ097-112-126-
138-151>153-165>167.
Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ097-112-126-138-
151>153-165>167.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...26
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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