308
FXUS64 KSHV 270316
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1016 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Scattered convection will remain possible through this evening
and overnight as deep SW flow just above the sfc is maintained.
Expect an increase in coverage during the day on Saturday with
the influence of added heating through the afternoon. The current
forecast reflects this thinking so no changes are needed at this
time as the previous Flood Watch for some of our SW zones having
expired earlier this evening.
/19/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Upper-level trough that has brought copious amounts of rainfall to
the region over the past several days will retrograde northwest
tonight. This jog to the northwest will bring little improvement
to the pattern with another surge of moisture possibly streaming
northeast across the region again late tonight into Saturday.
Based on the latest hires guidance, most of the heavier
precipitation that would warrant a Flood Watch will remain closer
to the coast. Therefore, there is no plan to expand the ongoing
Flood Watch at this time. However, with ongoing flood warnings
still in place across portions of Deep East Texas and adjacent
parishes in north Louisiana for the next couple of hours, will
hold off on ending the watch early.
High temperatures on Saturday will remain seasonably cool in the
lower to middle 80s due to increased rainfall and cloud-cover.
A chaotic atmosphere to persist into Saturday night with lingering
convection slowly waning and multi-level cloud decks persisting
areawide. Overnight lows forecast to average in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. /05/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Upper-level trough to eject northeast at the start of the long-
term period allowing for an upper-ridge to build east across the
region. The upper-ridge will remain in place through the end of
next week allowing for drier conditions areawide. Subsidence
associated with the ridge will drive afternoon high temperatures
into the mid 90s by Thursday. Accordingly, with increased low-
level moisture in place, afternoon heat index values could reach
advisory criteria across parts of the region as early as Monday.
Rain chances will become limited and confined to mainly the
hottest part of the day in the afternoon. Otherwise, overnight low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected each night. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
For the ArkLaTex terminals, little change over the next day as the
pattern continues with the shear axis overhead. VFR/MVFr now will
see the IFR setting back in later this evening and early morning.
Another surge of moisture will bring showers and isold TS with
daybreak. Models showing things start to loosen up earlier tmrw
with VFR cigs during the aftn as the rain areas push out of the
region. Coverage will further diminish for Sunday with one last
push perhaps before the hot&dry conditions resume next week. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 85 74 88 / 50 60 40 60
MLU 71 86 73 87 / 50 60 40 60
DEQ 69 84 69 88 / 30 50 20 30
TXK 72 86 72 90 / 30 50 30 50
ELD 69 83 70 87 / 50 60 30 50
TYR 72 85 73 89 / 30 50 20 40
GGG 71 84 72 88 / 40 50 30 50
LFK 71 82 72 86 / 50 70 30 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
308
FXUS64 KSHV 270316
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1016 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...New UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Scattered convection will remain possible through this evening
and overnight as deep SW flow just above the sfc is maintained.
Expect an increase in coverage during the day on Saturday with
the influence of added heating through the afternoon. The current
forecast reflects this thinking so no changes are needed at this
time as the previous Flood Watch for some of our SW zones having
expired earlier this evening.
/19/
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Upper-level trough that has brought copious amounts of rainfall to
the region over the past several days will retrograde northwest
tonight. This jog to the northwest will bring little improvement
to the pattern with another surge of moisture possibly streaming
northeast across the region again late tonight into Saturday.
Based on the latest hires guidance, most of the heavier
precipitation that would warrant a Flood Watch will remain closer
to the coast. Therefore, there is no plan to expand the ongoing
Flood Watch at this time. However, with ongoing flood warnings
still in place across portions of Deep East Texas and adjacent
parishes in north Louisiana for the next couple of hours, will
hold off on ending the watch early.
High temperatures on Saturday will remain seasonably cool in the
lower to middle 80s due to increased rainfall and cloud-cover.
A chaotic atmosphere to persist into Saturday night with lingering
convection slowly waning and multi-level cloud decks persisting
areawide. Overnight lows forecast to average in the upper 60s to
lower 70s. /05/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Upper-level trough to eject northeast at the start of the long-
term period allowing for an upper-ridge to build east across the
region. The upper-ridge will remain in place through the end of
next week allowing for drier conditions areawide. Subsidence
associated with the ridge will drive afternoon high temperatures
into the mid 90s by Thursday. Accordingly, with increased low-
level moisture in place, afternoon heat index values could reach
advisory criteria across parts of the region as early as Monday.
Rain chances will become limited and confined to mainly the
hottest part of the day in the afternoon. Otherwise, overnight low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s expected each night. /05/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
For the ArkLaTex terminals, little change over the next day as the
pattern continues with the shear axis overhead. VFR/MVFr now will
see the IFR setting back in later this evening and early morning.
Another surge of moisture will bring showers and isold TS with
daybreak. Models showing things start to loosen up earlier tmrw
with VFR cigs during the aftn as the rain areas push out of the
region. Coverage will further diminish for Sunday with one last
push perhaps before the hot&dry conditions resume next week. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 85 74 88 / 50 60 40 60
MLU 71 86 73 87 / 50 60 40 60
DEQ 69 84 69 88 / 30 50 20 30
TXK 72 86 72 90 / 30 50 30 50
ELD 69 83 70 87 / 50 60 30 50
TYR 72 85 73 89 / 30 50 20 40
GGG 71 84 72 88 / 40 50 30 50
LFK 71 82 72 86 / 50 70 30 60
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...24
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
499
FLUS44 KSHV 261741
HWOSHV
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-018>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-150-151-271745-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Rusk-Panola-
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to diminish by late
this afternoon into this evening, before increasing once again by
late tonight. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to an isolated flood
threat across some areas across east Texas and north Louisiana late
tonight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through at least Sunday across portions of the Four State Region.
Rain chances should diminish as we transition into the upcoming work
week. Decreasing rain chances will result in hotter temperatures with
readings by mid to late week returning to the middle and upper 90s.
These temperatures when combined with relatively high afternoon
humidity will result in afternoon heat indices nearing or exceeding
105 degrees by the middle to later half of next week.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
$$
LAZ017-TXZ149-152-153-165>167-271745-
Sabine-Cherokee-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING...
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northwest Louisiana, east
Texas and northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.
Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.
Flood Watch.
A Flood Watch remains in effect through 6 pm this evening. Despite
convection diminishing through the afternoon, areas already in flood
may be slow to recede. Locally heavy rainfall could lead to an
isolated flood threat across some areas across east Texas and north
Louisiana again late tonight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
through at least Sunday across portions of the Four State Region.
Rain chances should diminish as we transition into the upcoming work
week. Decreasing rain chances will result in hotter temperatures with
readings by mid to late week returning to the middle and upper 90s.
These temperatures when combined with relatively high afternoon
humidity will result in afternoon heat indices nearing or exceeding
105 degrees by the middle to later half of next week.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed.
$$
05
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
Follow us on Twitter
Follow us on Facebook
Follow us on YouTube
SHV RSS Feed