Significant Coastal Impacts to the Eastern Seaboard; Tropical Storm Nolo to Impact Hawaii
A Nor'easter will bring significant coastal impacts to the Mid-Atlantic and New England through the weekend. Moderate to major coastal flooding, heavy rain, strong winds and high surf expected. Tropical Storm Nolo will continue to strengthen as it moves north toward the Big Island of Hawaii. Heavy rainfall may bring life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides through the weekend.
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327
FXUS64 KSHV 251052
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
552 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
- Dry conditions will remain across the region through the
upcoming weekend, with a slight warming trend.
- Rain chances will return across portions of the region by
Tuesday night and spread to the remainder of the region through
at least Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Northeast winds in wake of a recent cool front will continue to
bring in a noticeably drier and cooler airmass across the region.
Expect overnight lows to range from the upper 50s to middle 60s,
with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Although northeast winds will remain in place over the region, the
winds will not be as strong as Thursday and the RH values are
expected to be a tad higher, so we will not continue the Fire
Danger Statement over the area. However, Burn Bans remain across
the overwhelming majority of our counties and parishes, so outdoor
burning and activities that involve open sparks or flames are
still discouraged. Concurrently with the post-frontal airmass,
upper-level ridging has built into the region. This ridge will
remain in place through the upcoming weekend, keeping dry weather
in the forecast. But, we will continue to see an abundance of high
cirrus across the region during this period. A slight warning
trend will also commence over the weekend, as light southerly
winds return across the region. However, we aren`t expecting
triple digit readings or heat advisories to return.
As we move into next week, long-range models are suggesting a
closed trough will move across the Four Corners Region of the
CONUS and finally eject out into the Plains by Wed/Thurs. Ahead of
the trough, our flow aloft will become southwesterly. Weak
disturbances along this flow could introduce some rain chances
into our western zones (mainly East Texas and SE Oklahoma) by
Tuesday afternoon, then into remainder of the forecast zones on
Wednesday and Thursday, as the trough and associated cool front
slowly move across the area. This could bring us much needed
rainfall to help mitigate the fire and drought concerns over the
region. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
No real changes to the 12z TAF package from the 06z package other
than to thin the prevailing cirrus slightly before increasing the
cirrus once again by this evening through the overnight hours.
Still expecting a weak cu field across mainly our eastern half
by late morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will vary from NNE
to ENE today with speeds generally under 10kts. Overnight, did
bring winds around to the ESE at the TYR terminal only.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected through the upcoming weekend.
/20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 68 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 89 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 89 62 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 88 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 88 63 91 64 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 90 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 90 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 90 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
327
FXUS64 KSHV 251052
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
552 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
- Dry conditions will remain across the region through the
upcoming weekend, with a slight warming trend.
- Rain chances will return across portions of the region by
Tuesday night and spread to the remainder of the region through
at least Wednesday and Thursday of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Northeast winds in wake of a recent cool front will continue to
bring in a noticeably drier and cooler airmass across the region.
Expect overnight lows to range from the upper 50s to middle 60s,
with highs on Friday ranging from the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Although northeast winds will remain in place over the region, the
winds will not be as strong as Thursday and the RH values are
expected to be a tad higher, so we will not continue the Fire
Danger Statement over the area. However, Burn Bans remain across
the overwhelming majority of our counties and parishes, so outdoor
burning and activities that involve open sparks or flames are
still discouraged. Concurrently with the post-frontal airmass,
upper-level ridging has built into the region. This ridge will
remain in place through the upcoming weekend, keeping dry weather
in the forecast. But, we will continue to see an abundance of high
cirrus across the region during this period. A slight warning
trend will also commence over the weekend, as light southerly
winds return across the region. However, we aren`t expecting
triple digit readings or heat advisories to return.
As we move into next week, long-range models are suggesting a
closed trough will move across the Four Corners Region of the
CONUS and finally eject out into the Plains by Wed/Thurs. Ahead of
the trough, our flow aloft will become southwesterly. Weak
disturbances along this flow could introduce some rain chances
into our western zones (mainly East Texas and SE Oklahoma) by
Tuesday afternoon, then into remainder of the forecast zones on
Wednesday and Thursday, as the trough and associated cool front
slowly move across the area. This could bring us much needed
rainfall to help mitigate the fire and drought concerns over the
region. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026
No real changes to the 12z TAF package from the 06z package other
than to thin the prevailing cirrus slightly before increasing the
cirrus once again by this evening through the overnight hours.
Still expecting a weak cu field across mainly our eastern half
by late morning into the afternoon hours. Winds will vary from NNE
to ENE today with speeds generally under 10kts. Overnight, did
bring winds around to the ESE at the TYR terminal only.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1121 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026
Spotter activation is not expected through the upcoming weekend.
/20/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 90 68 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 89 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 89 62 91 63 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 88 65 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 88 63 91 64 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 90 68 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 90 66 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 90 68 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...13
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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