000
FXUS64 KSHV 070006
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
606 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 239 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022
A frontal boundary across eastern Oklahoma into Arkansas will be
the main driver of the weather pattern through the short-term
period. The front is forecast to remain in place through Wednesday
before gradually lifting north on Wednesday night. Low-level
instability associated with the front combined with moist west to
southwest flow aloft will maintain mostly cloudy skies through the
period across the entire ArkLaTex. Rain chances will gradually
increase tonight through Wednesday along the frontal boundary as
instability increases in response to an upper-trough kicking out
of the Rockies and moving east into the Great Plains. However,
forcing across the ArkLaTex will be relatively weak, allowing for
mainly widespread showers tonight, mainly in the vicinity of the
front across Arkansas and Oklahoma, with the addition of isolated
thunderstorms on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Otherwise, expect
warm temperatures across the region with highs on Wednesday
approaching 80 degrees across much of east Texas and north
Louisiana with slightly cooler temperatures across the I-30
corridor where rain chances will be higher. Overnight lows both
tonight and Wednesday night will be in the 60s. /05/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 239 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022
The recent long term forecast story, featuring waves of moisture
riding on southwesterly flow on the northwest side of a stubborn
ridge over the Gulf, will change little this week. Said area of
ridging established over the Gulf of Mexico by mid week will remain
firmly in place through the end of the workweek and into the
weekend. Late in the weekend, this long lived pattern will start to
come to an end, as the upper level high breaks down and the ridge
broadens and begins to drift east, making way for the next large
scale feature of note. A pronounced trough will dig south from
Canada, deep into the Rockies before ejecting east over the Great
Plains early next week, characterized by a tight gradient of 500mb
heights on its leading edge, extending from the Great Lakes south
and west into west Texas and northern Mexico. This trough looks to
bring with it a potent cold front, which when introduced to the
warmer, very moist environment across the southeast, may set the
stage for another round of unsettled weather.
It remains far too early to deal in speculation of precise
specifics, but it bears mentioning that the latest SPC severe
weather outlook highlights the ArkLaTex in a slight risk (15%) for
Day 7 (Monday, December 12th). There is still plenty of time for
this forecast to drift in both time and space, but based on previous
performance of Day 7 SWOs highlighting the ArkLaTex this season,
this feature will be closely monitored in the coming days.
Rainfall will progress south and east into the ArkLaTex Thursday,
lingering overnight before clearing the region Friday afternoon. The
next wave will be hot on its heels, with rain chances returning to
our northern and western zones shortly after sunset, overtaking the
region and remaining areawide through Tuesday, not departing
entirely until overnight into Wednesday.
Above average temperatures late this week (mid to upper 70s) will
begin to fall over the weekend (upper 50s to lower 70s) before
rebounding slightly early next week in advance of the frontally-
driven cool down. Lows will drift accordingly, from 50s to 60s late
this week, followed by a round of 40s to 50s, and a return of 30s
mid next week. /26/
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2022
Mainly OVC skies will prevail across all terminals through the
00z TAF cycle as a warm front continues to advance north of the
airspace. As a boundary sets into place, this will help to generate
-RA, increasing in coverage by 07/11z, with possibly even -SHRA
across extreme northern terminals by 07/15z. The general theme is
for VFR conditions to prevail through the early stages of the
period ahead of MVFR with lowering CIGs. Some brief IFR conditions
may be possible across terminals by mid to late morning. Continue
to expect south to southwest winds to average between 5 to 10
knots through the period, with an occasional gust not out of the
question.
/53/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 67 80 65 77 / 30 20 10 10
MLU 66 80 64 79 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 60 70 60 73 / 70 90 70 60
TXK 65 76 64 76 / 70 70 40 40
ELD 63 76 61 75 / 60 60 30 20
TYR 66 78 66 77 / 40 20 10 30
GGG 67 79 65 77 / 30 20 10 20
LFK 66 81 65 79 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...53
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