Flooding Threat Along the Gulf Coast, Southern Rockies and High Plains; Cooler Weather in the Central and Eastern U.S.
Strong thunderstorms may bring excessive rainfall and flooding over parts of the northern Gulf Coast today and over parts of the southern Rockies into the High Plains today through the weekend. A refreshingly cool and dry air mass will continue to produce below average temperatures across the central and eastern U.S. through the weekend.
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836
FXUS64 KSHV 311731
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
- Rain chances become more isolated to widely scattered for
Monday into Tuesday.
- Still looking at or next cold front to move through our region
Tuesday into Tuesday Night with only small chances for rain in
association with the front.
- Stronger cold front set to impact our region late Wed Night
through Thursday with a glancing blow of milder air to end the
shortened work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
Continuing to deal with a pocket of higher atmospheric moisture in
the form of higher PWATs from far N TX into our portion of Deep
East Texas extending southward into SE TX and its this region
where we continue seeing scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. As was the case on Saturday, this will likely begin
dissipating in coverage and intensity much later this afternoon
into the evening hours, with this axis being a favorable location
for renewed development after midnight or closer to sunrise but
not near the extent or coverage we`ve witnessed the last 2
mornings. Northwest flow aloft is providing the necessary upper
forcing to generate this nocturnal activity with the precipitation
sustaining itself due to diurnal daytime heating.
Following this PWAT pattern through the short term has been a
really handy forecast tool lately and having said that, we should
see a split in this moisture axis for Labor Day with much higher
moisture once again across our portion of Deep East Texas and a
secondary area of a more subtle PWAT maximum near or north of the
I-30 Corridor or across the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE
OK and SW AR. For this reason, I have split higher chance pops for
Monday across these two locations with only isolated convective
coverage possible along the I-20 Corridor of NE TX into NW LA.
Beyond Labor Day, a strong upper level trough, embedded in
northwest flow aloft, will rapidly move south and east across the
Upper Midwest into the Tenn Valley late Tue into Tue Night. A cold
front will be associated with this upper level trough and this
disturbance should have just enough moisture available such that
isolated to scattered convection will be possible with the higher
pops warranted where the higher moisture content and upper
forcing will be located across our northern and eastern most
zones. That front won`t have much in the way of cooler air so to
speak but it will help to dry our atmosphere out by the time the
next cold front makes its way into our region during the day
Thursday.
It`s the Thursday cold front that will have a glancing blow of
some milder air associated with this post-frontal airmass and the
most noticeable difference will be felt at night and more so
across our northern and far northeastern zones where it will be
possible for temperatures in the upper 50s for overnight lows both
Thu Night and again Fri Night.
It appears this northwest flow aloft upper level pattern will
flatten out by next weekend with maybe a little more forcing
moving across Texas to encourage at least slight chance to low end
chance pops across our western half with returning near normal
early September temperatures for late this week into next weekend.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
Recovery has been slow across the ETX terminals this morning, as
all have battled low CIGs and reduced VSBYs due to fog and low
clouds overnight, resulting in instances of IFR and LIFR. At the
same time, hi-res has struggled to catch up on a band of light
rain working across the deep east TX terminals, primarily south of
TYR to LFK. Expectation is for additional showers and storms to
develop within the vicinty of the ETX terminals through the
afternoon, with a general SCT/BKN layer at or below 5-8kft, with
additional mid and high cloud aloft. By the evening, what does
materialize convectively should dissipate with mid and high cloud
remaining overnight. Heaviest of the cloud coverage should exist
across ETX again overnight where impacts to flight conditions may
materialize.
KNAPP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time throughout our
long Holiday weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 92 72 91 / 10 20 20 20
MLU 70 92 69 91 / 0 0 10 40
DEQ 70 85 64 86 / 20 30 30 30
TXK 71 90 68 88 / 20 20 20 20
ELD 67 91 65 88 / 10 10 20 30
TYR 73 87 69 88 / 20 20 20 10
GGG 71 89 69 89 / 20 20 20 20
LFK 72 91 70 92 / 20 40 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
836
FXUS64 KSHV 311731
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1231 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
- Rain chances become more isolated to widely scattered for
Monday into Tuesday.
- Still looking at or next cold front to move through our region
Tuesday into Tuesday Night with only small chances for rain in
association with the front.
- Stronger cold front set to impact our region late Wed Night
through Thursday with a glancing blow of milder air to end the
shortened work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
Continuing to deal with a pocket of higher atmospheric moisture in
the form of higher PWATs from far N TX into our portion of Deep
East Texas extending southward into SE TX and its this region
where we continue seeing scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. As was the case on Saturday, this will likely begin
dissipating in coverage and intensity much later this afternoon
into the evening hours, with this axis being a favorable location
for renewed development after midnight or closer to sunrise but
not near the extent or coverage we`ve witnessed the last 2
mornings. Northwest flow aloft is providing the necessary upper
forcing to generate this nocturnal activity with the precipitation
sustaining itself due to diurnal daytime heating.
Following this PWAT pattern through the short term has been a
really handy forecast tool lately and having said that, we should
see a split in this moisture axis for Labor Day with much higher
moisture once again across our portion of Deep East Texas and a
secondary area of a more subtle PWAT maximum near or north of the
I-30 Corridor or across the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX, SE
OK and SW AR. For this reason, I have split higher chance pops for
Monday across these two locations with only isolated convective
coverage possible along the I-20 Corridor of NE TX into NW LA.
Beyond Labor Day, a strong upper level trough, embedded in
northwest flow aloft, will rapidly move south and east across the
Upper Midwest into the Tenn Valley late Tue into Tue Night. A cold
front will be associated with this upper level trough and this
disturbance should have just enough moisture available such that
isolated to scattered convection will be possible with the higher
pops warranted where the higher moisture content and upper
forcing will be located across our northern and eastern most
zones. That front won`t have much in the way of cooler air so to
speak but it will help to dry our atmosphere out by the time the
next cold front makes its way into our region during the day
Thursday.
It`s the Thursday cold front that will have a glancing blow of
some milder air associated with this post-frontal airmass and the
most noticeable difference will be felt at night and more so
across our northern and far northeastern zones where it will be
possible for temperatures in the upper 50s for overnight lows both
Thu Night and again Fri Night.
It appears this northwest flow aloft upper level pattern will
flatten out by next weekend with maybe a little more forcing
moving across Texas to encourage at least slight chance to low end
chance pops across our western half with returning near normal
early September temperatures for late this week into next weekend.
13
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
Recovery has been slow across the ETX terminals this morning, as
all have battled low CIGs and reduced VSBYs due to fog and low
clouds overnight, resulting in instances of IFR and LIFR. At the
same time, hi-res has struggled to catch up on a band of light
rain working across the deep east TX terminals, primarily south of
TYR to LFK. Expectation is for additional showers and storms to
develop within the vicinty of the ETX terminals through the
afternoon, with a general SCT/BKN layer at or below 5-8kft, with
additional mid and high cloud aloft. By the evening, what does
materialize convectively should dissipate with mid and high cloud
remaining overnight. Heaviest of the cloud coverage should exist
across ETX again overnight where impacts to flight conditions may
materialize.
KNAPP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time throughout our
long Holiday weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 73 92 72 91 / 10 20 20 20
MLU 70 92 69 91 / 0 0 10 40
DEQ 70 85 64 86 / 20 30 30 30
TXK 71 90 68 88 / 20 20 20 20
ELD 67 91 65 88 / 10 10 20 30
TYR 73 87 69 88 / 20 20 20 10
GGG 71 89 69 89 / 20 20 20 20
LFK 72 91 70 92 / 20 40 20 20
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...24
AVIATION...13
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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