177
FTUS44 KSHV 211120
TAFSHV
TAF
KSHV 211120Z 2112/2212 13005KT P6SM BKN150
     FM211600 16008KT P6SM VCSH SCT035 OVC120
     FM212100 18005KT P6SM VCTS BKN050CB
     FM220700 06005KT 5SM TSRA BR OVC020CB=

183
FTUS44 KSHV 211120
TAFMLU
TAF
KMLU 211120Z 2112/2212 00000KT P6SM SKC
      TEMPO 2112/2114 4SM BR
     FM211700 14005KT P6SM SCT050
     FM220600 VRB04KT P6SM VCSH BKN040 OVC100=

181
FTUS44 KSHV 211120
TAFTYR
TAF
KTYR 211120Z 2112/2212 15006KT P6SM OVC100
     FM211400 17008KT P6SM VCSH BKN030
     FM211800 15008KT P6SM VCTS SCT040 OVC080CB
     FM220200 13005KT P6SM VCTS OVC020CB=

175
FTUS44 KSHV 211120
TAFGGG
TAF
KGGG 211120Z 2112/2212 16005KT P6SM BKN120
     FM211500 17008KT P6SM VCSH BKN030
     FM212000 15008KT P6SM VCTS SCT040 OVC080CB
     FM220500 13005KT P6SM VCTS OVC020CB=

174
FTUS44 KSHV 211120
TAFTXK
TAF
KTXK 211120Z 2112/2212 17004KT P6SM BKN150
     FM211500 18006KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 OVC100
     FM211900 18008KT P6SM VCTS BKN040CB
     FM220400 04004KT 5SM TSRA BR OVC020CB
     FM220900 06005KT 3SM TSRA BR OVC010CB=

026
FTUS44 KSHV 211120
TAFELD
TAF
KELD 211120Z 2112/2212 00000KT P6SM SKC
      TEMPO 2112/2114 3SM BR
     FM211800 13005KT P6SM SCT050 BKN120
     FM220300 02004KT P6SM VCSH BKN040
     FM220800 02005KT 4SM TSRA BR OVC015CB=

969
FTUS44 KLCH 211142
TAFAEX
TAF
KAEX 211142Z 2112/2212 12004KT 6SM BR SKC
     FM211300 13005KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN150
     FM211700 14005KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB
      TEMPO 2118/2122 3SM +TSRA BKN025CB
     FM220400 13003KT P6SM BKN150=

995
FTUS44 KLIX 211120
TAFBTR
TAF
KBTR 211120Z 2112/2212 VRB03KT P6SM FEW015 SCT100
     FM211800 12005KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB BKN090
     FM212100 14006KT P6SM SCT040 BKN100 PROB30 2121/2124 4SM -TSRA
      BKN035CB BKN040
     FM220200 VRB03KT P6SM FEW025 SCT250=

967
FTUS44 KLCH 211142
TAFLCH
TAF
KLCH 211142Z 2112/2212 14004KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN150
     FM211600 15007KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB BKN150
      TEMPO 2117/2121 3SM +TSRA BKN025CB
     FM220400 VRB03KT P6SM BKN150=

988
FTUS44 KLIX 211120
TAFMSY
TAF
KMSY 211120Z 2112/2218 VRB03KT P6SM FEW025 SCT250
      TEMPO 2112/2114 -RA FEW020 FEW025
     FM211700 10006KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB BKN080
     FM212100 13006KT P6SM SCT025 BKN100 PROB30 2121/2124 4SM -TSRA
      BKN020CB BKN025
     FM220000 14004KT P6SM FEW025 SCT250=

000
FTUS44 KHGX 211508 AAF
TAFCLL
TAF AMD
KCLL 211508Z 2115/2212 14008KT P6SM VCSH FEW015 BKN035 BKN250
      TEMPO 2115/2116 16010G20KT SHRA SCT015
     FM211900 16010KT P6SM VCTS SCT030CB BKN050
     FM220000 14007KT P6SM FEW025 BKN150
     FM220900 00000KT 6SM BR SCT025 OVC100=

127
FTUS44 KFWD 211502 AAB
TAFDFW
TAF AMD
KDFW 211502Z 2115/2218 17011KT P6SM VCSH BKN015 OVC030
      TEMPO 2115/2118 -SHRA SCT015 BKN022
     FM211800 15011KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS SCT025 BKN060CB
      TEMPO 2123/2203 4SM TSRA BKN025CB
     FM220400 12008KT P6SM TSRA BKN025CB
     FM220800 03010KT P6SM SHRA OVC012
     FM221600 02012KT P6SM VCSH OVC020=

129
FTUS44 KFWD 211502 AAB
TAFDAL
TAF AMD
KDAL 211502Z 2115/2212 17011KT P6SM VCSH BKN015 OVC030
      TEMPO 2115/2118 -SHRA SCT015 BKN022
     FM211800 15011KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS SCT025 BKN060CB
      TEMPO 2123/2203 4SM TSRA BKN025CB
     FM220400 12008KT P6SM TSRA BKN025CB
     FM220800 03010KT P6SM SHRA OVC012=

000
FTUS44 KHGX 211448 AAA
TAFIAH
TAF AMD
KIAH 211448Z 2115/2218 VRB03KT P6SM VCSH SCT120 OVC170
     FM211700 13007KT P6SM VCTS SCT035CB BKN045
     FM212300 12009KT P6SM SCT040 BKN250
     FM220200 12007KT P6SM FEW025 BKN250
     FM221200 15006KT P6SM VCSH BKN025=

718
FTUS44 KLZK 211130
TAFHOT
TAF
KHOT 211130Z 2112/2212 20005KT P6SM VCSH OVC050
     FM212000 VRB04KT P6SM -RA OVC050
     FM220200 VRB03KT 5SM -RA OVC025
     FM220900 08007KT 5SM -RA BR OVC007=

576
FTUS44 KLZK 211130
TAFLIT
TAF
KLIT 211130Z 2112/2212 00000KT P6SM BKN250
     FM211600 20005KT P6SM VCSH OVC100
     FM212200 VRB06KT P6SM -RA OVC050
     FM220300 VRB05KT 5SM -RA OVC025
     FM220900 03010KT 4SM -RA OVC007=

739
FTUS44 KTSA 211155
TAFMLC
TAF
KMLC 211155Z 2112/2212 VRB04KT 4SM -SHRA SCT008 OVC020
      TEMPO 2114/2118 2SM TSRA BKN008CB
     FM211800 04008KT 4SM -SHRA BR OVC007
      TEMPO 2118/2122 2SM TSRA OVC007CB
     FM220000 02010KT 3SM -SHRA OVC007
      TEMPO 2200/2204 1SM TSRA OVC004CB
     FM220600 01009KT 4SM -SHRA OVC004=

000
FTUS44 KOUN 211503 AAA
TAFOKC
TAF AMD
KOKC 211503Z 2115/2212 06011KT 6SM RA VCTS FEW008 OVC015CB
      TEMPO 2115/2119 1SM +RA OVC006
     FM212000 03018G25KT 6SM SHRA BKN018
     FM220000 02015KT P6SM SCT012 BKN100=

000
FXUS64 KSHV 211519
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1019 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

.UPDATE...
Widespread showers with embedded thunder continues across much of
southeast Oklahoma this morning in the vicinity of a weak surface
low. However, most of rainfall remains north of McCurtain county
with only a couple tenths of an inch or less reported across the
northern part of the county so far today. Drier conditions have
allowed for slightly warmer temperatures north of I-30. Thus, went
ahead and updated forecast to adjust for warmer temperature
trends. Otherwise, forecast is on track. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 730 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

UPDATE...
Made minor changes bringing chances of morning showers a little
further east, given recent trends. Reduced tstm wording for ne TX
as mostly just lgt rain so far out that way. Lowered some daytime
highs slightly as persistent clouds seem to be hold some temps
down./07/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 547 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

AVIATION...
Vfr conditions across area despite scattered showers of lgt rain
developing over ne TX and nw LA. As deep moisture increases, some
aftn tstms expected at all but keld and kmlu terminals with mid
lvl clouds becmg widespread and some low vfr cigs possible. A
shallow frontal boundary approaching area overnight will bring
about lowering cigs and increased rain chances with much of the
area becmg mvfr to possible ifr after 22/06z./07/.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 437 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018/

SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday Night/
A few overnight showers of lgt rain across East TX is the
precurser of what is to become a wet wknd across the region.
Although thunder should be limited in the morning hours today,
bringing in chance pops into ne TX/se OK and increasing rain
chances as pcpn water values quickly rise well over 2 inches.
Favoring ecmwf slower movement of frontal boundary into the I-30
corridor region of area by later on Saturday as faster frontal
movement not supported by deep sw flow expected. This solution
should keep axis of heaviest prolonged rainfall to our north and
west, with no imminent threat yet of flooding in cwa, especially
with ability of dry ground conditions to hold a wknd rainfall
total in the 4 to 5 inch range. Thick cloud cover already eastward
into much of nw LA/sw AR should keep aftn highs in the 80s,
despite a sunrise start in the mid to upper 70s, with any readings
over 90 reserved for portions of northcentral LA. Cloud cover and
southerly breeze overnight should keep nighttime temps well into
70s thru Fri night and aftn highs in 80s areawide Sat, except
where heavy rain may prevent some readings from even reaching the
80 mark./07/.

LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday Night/

The Four State Region will be in for a wet and unsettled weather
pattern through the long term forecast period. on Sunday a shear
axis will exist over the region in between a ridge of high pressure
aloft along the Eastern Seaboard into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico
and a broad upper trough over the Central and Eastern U.S. and
another upper level ridge of high pressure over Mexico. On the
surface a surface low pressure system will reside over East Texas
with a nearly stationary frontal system reaching from the surface
low across the Tennessee Valley of North Alabama and into the
Carolinas, with the surface front trailing Southwest into South
Texas. A series of weak short wave troughs of low pressure will
spread through the broad trough aloft prolonging convection into the
start to the work week. Another amplifying upper trough of low
pressure will be moving into the Central and Southern sections of
the country providing a Southwest flow pattern aloft while on the
surface the frontal boundary will be lifting Northeast as a warm
front. Surface high pressure across the Gulf Coast States will
continue to supply moisture into the area with a series of
disturbances aloft keeping rain chances elevated. By mid week the
upper trough will be very broad and another cold front will move
into the forecast area and become nearly stationary over parts of
East Texas and Central Louisiana before washing out. Rain chances
will lower slightly for Wednesday  night into Thursday, but another
cold front will enter the area on Friday ramping up the chance for
showers and thunderstorms. For the start to next weekend the cold
front along with surface high pressure looks to provide a brief dry
period with only slight chances for precipitation. Cloud cover and
rainfall will supply a cooler weather pattern for the area. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  76  86  72 /  50  60  60  60
MLU  94  74  89  72 /  20  30  50  70
DEQ  82  72  77  67 /  70  90  80  60
TXK  85  73  78  67 /  60  80  70  70
ELD  91  74  83  69 /  40  50  60  70
TYR  84  74  82  71 /  60  70  80  60
GGG  85  75  83  71 /  60  70  70  60
LFK  90  76  88  73 /  50  50  60  40

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/06/07

000
FLUS44 KSHV 211220
HWOSHV

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
720 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-221100-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
720 AM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered showers of mostly light rain early will increase and
become more numerous with a mix of thunderstorms during the
day and overnight with the approach of a cold front that will
spread into the area and become nearly stationary. A few storms
may produce strong gusty winds along with locally heavy rainfall.
No hazardous weather is expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will linger over the
region through the weekend before lifting back to the
Northeast on Monday as a warm front. Another cold front will move
into the region near mid week followed by another cold front on
Friday. These frontal systems along with disturbances aloft and
available and deep moisture will provide the area with scattered
to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be
capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.
Some of the heavier totals of rainfall will be over Northeast
Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and parts of Southwest Arkansas.
With repeated development of convection ponding of water in
streets and low lying areas and at low water crossings will be
possible. No organized hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio
operators, and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.

$$

06