NWS Shreveport Aviation Weather Page

000
FTUS44 KSHV 141741
TAFSHV
TAF
KSHV 141741Z 1418/1518 VRB05KT 6SM -SHRA BR OVC006
TEMPO 1418/1422 33013G18KT 4SM -SHRA BR OVC004
FM142200 33012G18KT 6SM -RA BR OVC007
FM150000 33014G22KT P6SM OVC008
FM150600 31009KT P6SM OVC015=

000
FTUS44 KSHV 141741
TAFMLU
TAF
KMLU 141741Z 1418/1518 19007KT 6SM BR OVC015
FM142100 21008KT 6SM -SHRA BR OVC010
TEMPO 1421/1424 5SM -SHRA BR OVC007
FM150000 VRB05KT 4SM -RA BR OVC015
FM150300 24004KT 4SM -RA BR OVC004
FM150500 30006KT 4SM BR OVC007
FM150800 29010G16KT 4SM -RA BR OVC003=

000 FTUS44 KSHV 141741 TAFTYR TAF KTYR 141741Z 1418/1518 33016KT 4SM -SHRA BR VCTS OVC007CB TEMPO 1418/1421 33016G21KT 3SM -TSRA BR OVC005CB FM142200 36017G23KT 5SM BR OVC015 FM150000 34016KT 4SM -SHRA BR OVC015 FM150300 33013KT P6SM OVC007=

000 FTUS44 KSHV 141741 TAFGGG TAF KGGG 141741Z 1418/1518 33016KT 4SM -SHRA BR VCTS OVC007CB TEMPO 1418/1421 33016G21KT 3SM -TSRA BR OVC005CB FM142200 36017G23KT 5SM BR OVC015 FM150000 34016KT 4SM -SHRA BR OVC015 FM150300 33013KT P6SM OVC007=

000 FTUS44 KSHV 141741 TAFTXK TAF KTXK 141741Z 1418/1518 36010KT 6SM -SHRA OVC015 FM141900 35012G19KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC006 FM142100 36015KT 2SM -RA BR OVC015 FM150000 33014KT 4SM -SHRA BR BKN007 OVC015 FM150300 33010KT 4SM -RA BR OVC010=

000 FTUS44 KSHV 141741 TAFELD TAF KELD 141741Z 1418/1518 01007KT P6SM OVC007 FM150000 35010KT 6SM BR OVC015 FM150300 32007KT 4SM -TSRA BR OVC007CB FM150700 30010G17KT 4SM -RA BR OVC007=

622 FTUS44 KLCH 141730 TAFAEX TAF KAEX 141730Z 1418/1518 23012KT P6SM OVC015 FM142000 24013KT P6SM VCSH OVC015 TEMPO 1422/1502 -RA OVC007 FM150200 24010G17KT P6SM VCSH OVC007 FM150600 27010G17KT P6SM OVC007=

080 FTUS44 KLIX 141721 TAFBTR TAF KBTR 141721Z 1418/1518 22012KT P6SM BKN030 BKN050 FM150100 23011G20KT P6SM OVC020 TEMPO 1504/1508 OVC008 FM151000 26008KT P6SM OVC010 FM151700 27008KT P6SM OVC015=

979
FTUS44 KLIX 141721
TAFMSY
TAF
KMSY 141721Z 1418/1524 25010G20KT P6SM BKN030 BKN040 BKN120
FM150600 25011G23KT P6SM OVC025
TEMPO 1508/1512 OVC015
FM151200 27010KT P6SM OVC018
FM151900 28011G21KT P6SM BKN040=

000 FTUS44 KLZK 141724 TAFLIT TAF KLIT 141724Z 1418/1518 03008G20KT 6SM -SHRA BR OVC007 TEMPO 1418/1420 3SM TSRA BR BKN007 OVC015CB FM142000 36010G17KT 4SM -SHRA BR OVC012 FM150500 32008G15KT 5SM BR OVC015=

000 FTUS44 KLZK 141724 TAFPBF TAF KPBF 141724Z 1418/1518 03008KT 3SM -RA BR OVC006 FM150000 35010KT 5SM -SHRA BR OVC009 FM150500 32008G15KT 5SM BR OVC008 FM151500 30006G15KT 6SM BR OVC015=

000 FXUS64 KSHV 141729 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1129 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 .UPDATE... A few minor changes made to temperature and POP grids to account for current trends. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue develop on the northern and western side of an eastward moving surface low currently over north-central Louisiana. Temperatures will generally hold in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the region today with cloudy skies. A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect for most of East Texas and McCurtain County Oklahoma until 6 PM this evening as northerly winds of 15-20 mph with gusts from 25-30 mph expected through the early evening hours. /20/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 801 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/ AVIATION... For the 14/12Z terminal forecast will prevail IFR through most of the period with brief periods of MVFR with periods of showers and thunderstorms today and mainly showers overnight. Rains end before 15/12Z Saturday. Visibility restrictions will range from 1/4 statute miles to less than 3. There will be periods of higher visibilities equal to or higher than 6 statute miles. Wrap around cloud cover will linger through the period out beyond the end of the terminal forecast period. A tight pressure gradient between a large surface low over North Louisiana and surface high pressure over the Plains will produce strong and gusty Northerly winds of 15-25 knots with higher speeds mainly over East and Northeast Texas and Southeast Texas today and over much of the ArkLaTex overnight. Conditions to improve Saturday night. /06/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 536 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018/ SHORT TERM...Today Through Saturday/ This morning a large and tightly wound surface low pressure system was centered over North Louisiana and covered much of Gulf Coast States and expanded North into the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Lower Great Lakes area. The tight pressure gradient between this low and the surface high pressure system over the Western Central Plains and into the Pan Handles of Texas and Oklahoma and into West Texas will be producing strong and gusty Northerly winds over Southeast Oklahoma and much of East and Northeast Texas for today from around 8 AM until 6 PM CST. Have issued a lake wind advisory for this event and as the surface low shifts to the East those strong winds may shift into parts of Louisiana and South Arkansas this evening and could still affect parts of Southeast Oklahoma and Northeast Texas. The middle and upper level closed low was centered over Southeast Texas this morning and will be shifting to the Northeast into Western Mississippi and Southeast Arkansas and into the Tennessee Valley by early Saturday morning as the upper low takes a similar but slightly more Southeast track. Showers and thunderstorms will continue today along the occluded surface front extending from the surface low center to the East and Northeast and around the back side of the surface low with a cold front wrapping around its back side. Have trended to showers during the overnight hours which will be tapering off from Southwest to Northeast with most having ended by 6 AM Saturday morning. /06/ LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Friday Night/ Saturday Night, the closed upper level low shifts north and east into the Carolinas and we are left with weak ridging aloft across the Southern Plains. A trough develops across the Baja region during the day Sunday and begins to lift out into the Plains Monday into Monday Night with another upper level trough close on its heels moving into the the Plains by Tuesday. Timing discrepancies between the medium range progs with the ejection of this next midweek trough make the extended forecast a difficult concerning our next precipitation chances but we will continue to follow the ECMWF solution which is more progressive with next week`s trough. This will result in precipitation chances Tuesday Night through Wednesday Night before most of the lift in association with this trough moves north and east of our region Thursday into Friday. Look for moderating temperatures through much of next week ahead of the trough by the middle of next week when we should see a weak frontal passage. Temperatures will cool down slightly by the end of next week but nothing cold for the middle of December by any standards. /13/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 54 43 56 40 / 90 60 0 0 MLU 60 45 55 40 / 70 50 0 0 DEQ 57 40 56 35 / 100 60 0 0 TXK 56 41 56 38 / 100 70 0 0 ELD 56 44 56 38 / 100 70 0 0 TYR 49 39 57 38 / 70 20 0 0 GGG 54 40 56 40 / 80 30 0 0 LFK 49 42 58 39 / 60 20 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for OKZ077. TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>152. && $$ 20

000 FLUS44 KSHV 141727 HWOSHV Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1127 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-151200- Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette- Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto- Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn- Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp- Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk- Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine- 1127 AM CST Fri Dec 14 2018 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight... Areas of rain, and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms, will continue to develop this afternoon and spread south southwest near and on the backside of strong upper level storm system that will shift east northeast across Central Louisiana. This rain will begin to diminish from west to east this evening as this storm system rapidly pulls away from the region. However, a few of the stronger showers and isolated thunderstorms may produce small hail and brief heavy rainfall which may lead to minor flooding of low lying, poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday... Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend will commence this weekend through early next week, before isolated to scattered showers return to portions of East Texas and Southeast Oklahoma Tuesday night, and areawide Wednesday with the approach of an upper level disturbance. However, no hazardous weather is expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency managers, spotter networks, and amateur radio operators, should not be needed this afternoon or tonight. $$ 15