A Wintry Mix in the Northeast; Rain and High Elevation Snow Returns to California
A clipper system tracking across the U.S./Canadian border will bring snowfall and mixed precipitation across the Northeast. A modest atmospheric river associated with a Pacific system will bring lower elevation/coastal rain, high elevation snow/wintry mix, and gusty winds in California into the Intermountain West.
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536
FXUS64 KSHV 100640
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1240 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
- Above normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday before a
week cool front brings some slightly cooler, but still well
above normal temperatures through the rest of the week.
- Light rain is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly
across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and Southern
Arkansas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Cloud cover has increased across the region tonight, and we will
see cloudy skies throughout the day today and into tonight. With
the increased cloud cover and southerly winds, this morning will
be one of the more mild mornings we have had in a while. Afternoon
highs will remain unseasonably warm, with highs climbing into the
lower to upper 70s across the region, which is around 15-20
degrees above normal. Rain chances return to the area today as a
weakening upper-level disturbance moves to the northeast from
northern Mexico towards the Southern Plains. As moisture increases
ahead of this system, scattered showers may begin to develop this
afternoon across portions of southeast Oklahoma and adjacent
areas becoming more numerous later this evening and into the
overnight hours. Rainfall totals should remain light across the
region. While temperatures will cool off a tad, they will remain
above seasonable normals into the weekend.
Our next system moves into the region by this weekend. Models are
in better agreement that the bulk of the moisture will come
through the area during Saturday afternoon and into Saturday
evening. There still are some discrepancies with the exact timing
and location of the rainfall however. Looking at the amount of
instability, shear, etc, it looks like this system could bring
some strong thunderstorms to the area, which is something we will
need to continue to watch close in the coming days as we get
closer. /33/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
Only change for this TAF package was to delay the return of MVFR
ceilings for 2-3 hours across our terminal locations overnight and
into early Tuesday Morning. Still see these ceilings lifting
and/or scattering out by late morning into the afternoon with VFR
conditions returning. Mid cloud cover will return however with a
weak cu field continuing through the late afternoon and through
the end of the TAF period.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 60 74 52 / 0 30 20 10
MLU 76 59 71 50 / 10 30 30 0
DEQ 75 50 67 40 / 20 60 10 0
TXK 77 56 69 46 / 10 50 20 0
ELD 74 54 66 44 / 10 40 20 0
TYR 76 56 72 51 / 10 40 20 0
GGG 77 56 73 51 / 10 40 20 0
LFK 77 59 76 56 / 10 30 20 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...13
536
FXUS64 KSHV 100640
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1240 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
- Above normal temperatures will continue on Tuesday before a
week cool front brings some slightly cooler, but still well
above normal temperatures through the rest of the week.
- Light rain is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday, mainly
across northeast Texas, southeast Oklahoma, and Southern
Arkansas.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Cloud cover has increased across the region tonight, and we will
see cloudy skies throughout the day today and into tonight. With
the increased cloud cover and southerly winds, this morning will
be one of the more mild mornings we have had in a while. Afternoon
highs will remain unseasonably warm, with highs climbing into the
lower to upper 70s across the region, which is around 15-20
degrees above normal. Rain chances return to the area today as a
weakening upper-level disturbance moves to the northeast from
northern Mexico towards the Southern Plains. As moisture increases
ahead of this system, scattered showers may begin to develop this
afternoon across portions of southeast Oklahoma and adjacent
areas becoming more numerous later this evening and into the
overnight hours. Rainfall totals should remain light across the
region. While temperatures will cool off a tad, they will remain
above seasonable normals into the weekend.
Our next system moves into the region by this weekend. Models are
in better agreement that the bulk of the moisture will come
through the area during Saturday afternoon and into Saturday
evening. There still are some discrepancies with the exact timing
and location of the rainfall however. Looking at the amount of
instability, shear, etc, it looks like this system could bring
some strong thunderstorms to the area, which is something we will
need to continue to watch close in the coming days as we get
closer. /33/
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1113 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026
Only change for this TAF package was to delay the return of MVFR
ceilings for 2-3 hours across our terminal locations overnight and
into early Tuesday Morning. Still see these ceilings lifting
and/or scattering out by late morning into the afternoon with VFR
conditions returning. Mid cloud cover will return however with a
weak cu field continuing through the late afternoon and through
the end of the TAF period.
13
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1227 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 60 74 52 / 0 30 20 10
MLU 76 59 71 50 / 10 30 30 0
DEQ 75 50 67 40 / 20 60 10 0
TXK 77 56 69 46 / 10 50 20 0
ELD 74 54 66 44 / 10 40 20 0
TYR 76 56 72 51 / 10 40 20 0
GGG 77 56 73 51 / 10 40 20 0
LFK 77 59 76 56 / 10 30 20 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...13
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IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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