173
FXUS64 KSHV 202338
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
638 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
- Oppressively hot conditions will continue throughout much of
this coming week.
- Dry conditions will continue as well through at least midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
The early afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates a healthy
cu field that has developed over much of E TX/N LA, which should
continue to spread NNE into extreme NE TX/SW AR/SE OK through the
rest of the afternoon. Meanwhile, upper ridging was centered over
the Nrn Gulf, with a weak seabreeze having recently developed over
portions of extreme SE TX away from the ridge center. However,
mosaic radar imagery has shown that this convection has been
struggling to move much farther N away from the coast, although
the visible imagery depicts that some towering cu is trying to
develop farther N over portions of SE TX and along the Lower
Sabine Valley. Still can`t rule out very isolated -SHRA developing
this afternoon over portions of Deep E TX/Lower Toledo Bend
Country, with the cu field quickly diminishing by/shortly after
sunset. Even with the mostly clear sky overnight, light S winds
should maintain enough mixing such that temps will only slowly
fall into the mid/upper 70s.
Upper ridging remains progged to build N into the Lower MS Valley
this evening/overnight, becoming centered over much of LA Monday.
Drier air should also begin to mix down to the sfc as well, which
should allow for dewpoints to mix out a bit more than what has
been observed in recent days in the presence of the very tropical
air mass in place. With temps expected to climb another degree or
so with increasing subsidence beneath the ridge, heat indices
should again exceed 105 degrees over much of the region, and thus,
have extended the existing Heat Advisory for all but the Wrn
sections of E TX through 01Z Tuesday. However, some of these areas
particularly over portions of E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR may not
reach criteria giving the extent of slightly better mixing
expected.
A continued uptick in the heat will continue through midweek as
the ridging aloft begins to expand NNE and amplify before drifting
into the TN/OH Vallies, with the likelihood of heat headlines
continuing for portions of the region. However, the displacement
of the ridge center should allow for Erly waves to undercut the
ridge along the Gulf coast by Thursday, with the various
ensembles suggesting the potential for an increase in scattered
convection by Friday into next weekend, especially across N
LA/Lower E TX.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
A surface high in the northern gulf will allow for persistent
southerly flow across the ArkLaTex through the terminal forecast
period ending 22/00Z. South to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots
overnight will increase to 10 knots on Monday, diminishing to 5
to 10 knots after 21/20Z. Otherwise, with upper-level ridging
aloft, mainly dry conditions to persist areawide. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 98 78 99 77 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 97 76 98 75 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 96 72 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 99 79 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 97 75 97 73 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 96 77 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 96 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 95 75 96 74 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ097-112-126-137-138-
150>153-165>167.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
173
FXUS64 KSHV 202338
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
638 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
- Oppressively hot conditions will continue throughout much of
this coming week.
- Dry conditions will continue as well through at least midweek.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
The early afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates a healthy
cu field that has developed over much of E TX/N LA, which should
continue to spread NNE into extreme NE TX/SW AR/SE OK through the
rest of the afternoon. Meanwhile, upper ridging was centered over
the Nrn Gulf, with a weak seabreeze having recently developed over
portions of extreme SE TX away from the ridge center. However,
mosaic radar imagery has shown that this convection has been
struggling to move much farther N away from the coast, although
the visible imagery depicts that some towering cu is trying to
develop farther N over portions of SE TX and along the Lower
Sabine Valley. Still can`t rule out very isolated -SHRA developing
this afternoon over portions of Deep E TX/Lower Toledo Bend
Country, with the cu field quickly diminishing by/shortly after
sunset. Even with the mostly clear sky overnight, light S winds
should maintain enough mixing such that temps will only slowly
fall into the mid/upper 70s.
Upper ridging remains progged to build N into the Lower MS Valley
this evening/overnight, becoming centered over much of LA Monday.
Drier air should also begin to mix down to the sfc as well, which
should allow for dewpoints to mix out a bit more than what has
been observed in recent days in the presence of the very tropical
air mass in place. With temps expected to climb another degree or
so with increasing subsidence beneath the ridge, heat indices
should again exceed 105 degrees over much of the region, and thus,
have extended the existing Heat Advisory for all but the Wrn
sections of E TX through 01Z Tuesday. However, some of these areas
particularly over portions of E TX/SE OK/adjacent SW AR may not
reach criteria giving the extent of slightly better mixing
expected.
A continued uptick in the heat will continue through midweek as
the ridging aloft begins to expand NNE and amplify before drifting
into the TN/OH Vallies, with the likelihood of heat headlines
continuing for portions of the region. However, the displacement
of the ridge center should allow for Erly waves to undercut the
ridge along the Gulf coast by Thursday, with the various
ensembles suggesting the potential for an increase in scattered
convection by Friday into next weekend, especially across N
LA/Lower E TX.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
A surface high in the northern gulf will allow for persistent
southerly flow across the ArkLaTex through the terminal forecast
period ending 22/00Z. South to southwest winds 5 to 10 knots
overnight will increase to 10 knots on Monday, diminishing to 5
to 10 knots after 21/20Z. Otherwise, with upper-level ridging
aloft, mainly dry conditions to persist areawide. /05/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2025
Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. /15/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 98 78 99 77 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 97 76 98 75 / 10 10 0 0
DEQ 96 72 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 99 79 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 97 75 97 73 / 10 10 0 0
TYR 96 77 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 96 76 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 95 75 96 74 / 20 20 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for OKZ077.
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for TXZ097-112-126-137-138-
150>153-165>167.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...05
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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