National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
NWS Shreveport Aviation Weather Services
Local TAFs
Shreveport Regional (SHV) Monroe (MLU)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid

FTUS44 KSHV 222333
KSHV 222333Z 2300/2324 05009KT P6SM OVC009
FM231500 08008KT P6SM OVC013=

FTUS44 KSHV 222333
KMLU 222333Z 2300/2324 04009KT P6SM OVC015
FM230300 04008KT P6SM SCT007 OVC013
FM231500 06007KT P6SM OVC013=
Tyler (TYR) Longview (GGG)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KSHV 222333
KTYR 222333Z 2300/2324 04009KT 3SM BR OVC006
      TEMPO 2300/2304 1SM BR
     FM231000 07008KT P6SM OVC007
     FM231900 08007KT P6SM OVC012=
FTUS44 KSHV 222333
KGGG 222333Z 2300/2324 05006KT 6SM BR OVC005
      TEMPO 2300/2304 1SM BR OVC004
     FM230400 06007KT P6SM OVC007
     FM231500 08007KT P6SM OVC013=
Lufkin (LFK)
Tactical Decision Aid

FTUS44 KSHV 222333
KLFK 222333Z 2300/2324 04004KT P6SM OVC010
FM230600 06006KT P6SM OVC007
FM231900 09006KT P6SM OVC012=
Texarkana (TXK) El Dorado (ELD)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KSHV 222333
KTXK 222333Z 2300/2324 10004KT P6SM OVC060
     FM230700 07007KT P6SM OVC035
     FM231200 07007KT P6SM OVC015=
FTUS44 KSHV 222333
KELD 222333Z 2300/2324 05004KT P6SM SCT020 BKN060
     FM231200 04007KT P6SM BKN020
     FM231500 06007KT P6SM OVC020=
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Regional TAFs
Alexandria (AEX) Baton Rouge (BTR)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KLCH 222320
KAEX 222320Z 2300/2324 08005KT 3SM BR OVC003
     FM231600 07007KT P6SM OVC007=
FTUS44 KLIX 230202 AAC
KBTR 230202Z 2302/2324 05004KT P6SM -RA FEW005 BKN050
     FM230300 04005KT P6SM OVC003
     FM231400 07005KT 3SM BR BKN003
     FM231700 08007KT 6SM BR OVC008=
Lake Charles (LCH) New Orleans (MSY)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid

FTUS44 KLCH 230346 AAK
KLCH 230346Z 2304/2324 06005KT 4SM BR OVC005
FM230600 05007KT 2SM BR OVC003
TEMPO 2310/2314 1/2SM FG VV002
FM231500 05009KT 4SM BR OVC004
FM231600 07007KT P6SM OVC007=

FTUS44 KLIX 230157 AAG
KMSY 230157Z 2302/2406 04005KT 6SM BR BKN003 OVC015
FM230600 06005KT 5SM BR OVC008
FM231000 06006KT 6SM BR OVC003=
College Station (CLL) Dallas/Fort Worth International (DFW)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KHGX 230149 AAC
KCLL 230149Z 2302/2324 36012KT P6SM OVC004
     FM230500 01007KT 6SM BR OVC004
     FM230800 01005KT 3SM BR OVC003
     FM231100 03004KT 2SM BR OVC004
     FM231800 09006KT P6SM SCT006 OVC010
     FM232200 12007KT 6SM -DZ BR VCSH SCT008 OVC015=
FTUS44 KFWD 230257 AAS
KDFW 230257Z 2303/2406 03005KT P6SM SCT012 OVC045
      TEMPO 2305/2307 BKN012
     FM230700 06006KT 6SM BR OVC009
     FM231400 10007KT 5SM BR OVC009
     FM231700 12007KT P6SM OVC009
     FM232100 14008KT P6SM OVC012
     FM240300 15007KT 3SM BR OVC005=
Dallas-Love Field (DAL) Houston-Bush Intercontinental (IAH)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KFWD 230257 AAH
KDAL 230257Z 2303/2324 08005KT P6SM SCT012 OVC045
     FM230700 10007KT P6SM OVC009
     FM232100 14008KT P6SM OVC012=
FTUS44 KHGX 230150 AAF
KIAH 230150Z 2302/2406 00000KT P6SM FEW009 BKN022
     FM230400 02005KT 4SM BR OVC005
     FM230800 02004KT 1 1/2SM BR OVC004
     FM231600 08005KT 5SM BR SCT004 OVC006
     FM231900 10007KT 6SM BR SCT009 BKN015
     FM232100 10007KT 5SM -DZ BR VCSH SCT007 OVC012
     FM240300 11009KT 3SM -DZ BR OVC007=
Houston-Hobby (HOU)
Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KHGX 230351 AAJ
KHOU 230351Z 2304/2324 01007KT P6SM BKN009 OVC024
     FM230500 02005KT 3SM BR OVC007
     FM230700 02005KT 1 1/2SM BR OVC004
     FM230900 03005KT 3/4SM BR OVC003
     FM231600 07006KT 2SM BR OVC005
     FM232000 09007KT 5SM -DZ BR VCSH BKN007 OVC015=
Hot Springs (HOT) Little Rock (LIT)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KLZK 222338
KHOT 222338Z 2300/2324 07007KT P6SM SCT250
     FM230600 08006KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250
     FM231100 08007KT P6SM SCT060 BKN100
     FM231500 09007KT P6SM SCT030 OVC060=
FTUS44 KLZK 222338
KLIT 222338Z 2300/2324 06007KT P6SM SCT250
     FM230800 05007KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250
     FM231300 07007KT P6SM SCT060 BKN100
     FM231700 08007KT P6SM SCT030 OVC060=
Pine Bluff (PBF)
Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KLZK 222338
KPBF 222338Z 2300/2324 04007KT P6SM SCT250
     FM230600 04007KT P6SM SCT100 BKN250
     FM231100 04008KT P6SM SCT060 BKN100
     FM231500 06008KT P6SM SCT030 OVC060=
McAlester (MLC) Oklahoma City-Will Rogers (OKC)
Tactical Decision Aid Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KTSA 222336
KMLC 222336Z 2300/2324 06007KT P6SM SKC
     FM230900 09005KT P6SM BKN050
     FM231200 12009KT P6SM BKN020=
FTUS44 KOUN 222332
KOKC 222332Z 2300/2324 04011KT P6SM FEW150
     FM230600 08010KT P6SM OVC020
     FM231500 15011KT P6SM OVC020=
Tulsa International (TUL)
Tactical Decision Aid
FTUS44 KTSA 222336
KTUL 222336Z 2300/2324 05007KT P6SM FEW250
      TEMPO 2300/2301 05010G18KT
     FM231100 11010KT P6SM BKN060
     FM231600 15012G20KT P6SM BKN025=
NWS-Shreveport Aviation Forecast Discussion
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Flight Category Definitions
Category Ceilings And/Or Visibilities
VFR Greater than 3000 ft AND Greater than 5 SM
MVFR Greater than or equal to 1000 ft, but less than or equal to 3000 ft AND/OR Greater than or equal to 3 SM, but less than or equal to 5 SM
IFR Greater than or equal to 500 ft, but less than 1000 ft AND/OR Greater than or equal to 1 SM, but less than 3 SM
LIFR Less than 500 ft AND/OR Less than 1 SM
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Southern Plains Southern Mississippi Valley
Southern Plains radar loop Southern Mississippi Valley radar loop
Shreveport (SHV) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Shreveport (SHV) Base Velocity 0.5º
Shreveport Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Shreveport Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
Fort Polk (POE) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Fort Polk (POE) Base Velocity 0.5º
Fort Polk Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Fort Polk Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
Fort Smith (SRX) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Fort Smith (SRX) Base Velocity 0.5º
Fort Smith Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Fort Smith Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
Little Rock (LZK) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Little Rock (LZK) Base Velocity 0.5º
Little Rock Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Little Rock Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
Inola (INX) Base Reflectivity 0.5º Inola (INX) Base Velocity 0.5º
Inola Radar Base Reflectivity 0.5 degrees Inola Radar Base Velocity 0.5 degrees
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Latest Observed Sounding from Shreveport
RAP Vertical Wind Forecasts
Shreveport Regional Airport (SHV) Monroe Regional Airport (MLU)
RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Shreveport RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Monroe
Tyler Pounds Regional Airport (TYR) Longview-East Texas Regional Airport (GGG)
RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Tyler RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Longview
Lufkin-Angelina County Airport (LFK) Texarkana Regional Airport-Webb Field (TXK)
RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for Lufkin RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for TXK
El Dorado-South Arkansas Regional Airport (ELD)
RAP Vertical Wind Forecast for El Dorado
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Latest Area Forecast Discussion (AFD)
FXUS64 KSHV 222339

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
539 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

For the 23/00z TAFs, a few scattered showers will move eastward
across Northeast Texas, Southern Arkansas, and Northern Louisiana
early in the period. However, this activity is not expected to
affect the TAF sites. Flight conditions should generally fall into
the IFR/LIFR categories areawide as low ceilings and patchy fog,
including patchy dense fog, develops before 23/06z. Visibilities
should quickly improve after sunrise. Ceilings will be much slower
to lift, but MVFR flight conditions are expected at all TAF sites
after 23/18z.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 308 PM CST Fri Jan 22 2021/

SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Saturday night/

The leading edge of the drier sfc air continues to seep S across
Lower E TX and NCntrl LA this afternoon, just S of the I-20
corridor where dewpoints have fallen off into the upper 40s to
near 50 degrees. While the afternoon water vapor imagery indicates
a considerable wedge that has advected E across much of the region
this afternoon, a few isolated areas of light rain have
redeveloped across portions of E TX/N LA where weak elevated
isentropic lift remains atop the shallow cool air mass in place.
Even as this shallow air mass continues to settle S into SE TX ad
Scntrl LA tonight, the H925 flow will become E this evening and
then SE late tonight, thus ending the erosion of the back edge of
the stratocu across SW AR this evening, with this cloud cover
quickly returning back N over these area by or shortly after
daybreak Saturday. The global and hi-res short term progs are in
agreement with weak overrunning commencing over the area atop the
shallow cool air dome this evening, with even very light amounts
of QPF through the overnight hours over E TX/N LA along and S of
I-20. Given the very light QPF forecast amongst the majority of
the progs, have inserted slight chance pops tonight for these
areas, with this overrunning progged to gradually spread back to
the NE during the day Saturday. Thus, have added slight chance
pops for these areas given the overall agreement amongst the
various models with the very light QPF in the weak overrunning

Weak cold advection ongoing attm through tonight will result in
cooler min temps tonight, but the considerable stratus/stratocu
field should keep the extent of cold advection at bay, and thus
have continued the trend with temps a bit above the colder NBM,
with the coldest temps expected to be over SE OK/Nrn sections of
SW AR where the stratocu has temporarily cleared/scattered over
these areas this afternoon. Also continued the trend of max temps
Saturday cooler than the NBM given the extensive low stratocu
field and damp conditions.

The upper flow will begin to transition back to SW by Saturday
night well ahead of the upper troughing now digging through Cntrl
CA, which will wobble through the state Saturday before entering
the Desert SW Sunday. Weak PVA remains progged to increase
Saturday night within the SW flow, with sct SHRA increasing during
the evening across E TX, before spreading across the remainder of
the region overnight. This will be near and N of a warm front,
which will begin its Nwd advance across E TX/N LA Saturday night,
and into the Red River Valley and Srn AR Sunday. Variability still
exists amongst the progs with the placement/extent of QPF, and
thus have maintained high chance pops for much of E TX/NW LA/SW
AR/extreme SE OK, tapering pops to mid and low chance farther E
across Ncntrl LA/SCntrl AR. Min temps Saturday night will likely
be achieved during the evening, before temps slowly rise overnight
as the warm front lifts N into E TX/N LA.


LONG TERM.../Sunday through Friday/

By Sunday morning, a warm front along the coast and extending back
across east central Texas will quickly begin lifting back northeast
across our region. The warm front will bring increasing moisture
from the Gulf along with increasing showers, which will gradually
expand in coverage and intensity by Sunday afternoon with isolated
thunderstorms also developing. The warm front should clear the area
late in the day as warm air advection will push high temperatures
into the 60s to lower 70s on Sunday despite the thick cloud cover
and increasing convection throughout the day.

By Sunday night into Monday, expect convection to become even more
concentrated with increasing upper level support from a significant
shortwave trough pivoting east from the Desert Southwest into the
Southern Plains. Due to the unseasonably warm and moist atmosphere
in place ahead of the trough and accompanying cold front, look for
thunderstorms to become more numerous during this timeframe as the
lift and forcing ahead of the sfc and upper level features is near
peak intensity. The limiting factor still appears to be instability
in the lower levels and near the sfc, but mid-level lapse rates look
to be quite impressive at over 8C/km coupled with increasing bulk
shear. As such, the potential for at least some isolated strong to
severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out from Sunday night through
Monday morning. This threat, if it materializes at all, does appear
to be greatest along and north of the I-30 corridor with large hail
and damaging winds as the primary threats.

The upper level shortwave and cold front will quickly shift east of
the area by Monday afternoon, and this will allow for any lingering
convection to quickly come to an end. Dry conditions will resume for
Tuesday before another upper level trough ejects out of the Rockies
on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Moisture availability ahead of this
trough still looks to be quite limited with rain chances generally a
bit higher across our eastern half and lower farther to the west. An
upper level ridge will quickly build across the region on Thursday
and allow for some welcome sunshine through the end of next week.



SHV  46  54  50  68 /  20  20  50  80
MLU  44  52  49  68 /  20  20  30  70
DEQ  36  46  41  62 /  10  20  50  70
TXK  40  48  45  64 /  10  20  50  80
ELD  38  49  43  65 /  10  20  40  90
TYR  47  57  53  69 /  20  20  50  90
GGG  46  55  51  69 /  20  20  50  80
LFK  52  63  57  72 /  20  20  50  70





Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
FLUS44 KSHV 221633

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1033 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-
Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-
Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
1033 AM CST Fri Jan 22 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest
Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday...

Thunderstorm chances will increase once again by late this weekend
into early next week with the arrival of another strong cold front
and associated upper level storm system. The potential for severe
weather will continue to be monitored due to the unseasonably warm
air that will be in place ahead of this system. In addition, heavy
rainfall will also be possible. As such, the threat for localized
flash flooding could be possible given the already saturated soil


Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators and storm spotters will not be needed through tonight.





IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.