Heat and Fire Weather Concerns in the West; Excessive Rainfall Possible in the South-Central U.S.
Heat will build over the Intermountain West and the Southwest the next couple of days. Lightning from dry thunderstorms can create new fire starts and combined with gusty winds may cause a fire to rapidly grow in Oregon and northern California. Flash flooding will be possible in New Mexico and west Texas today, as well as parts of the southern and central Plains due to slow moving thunderstorms.
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784
FXUS64 KSHV 301747 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
- Cold front driven thunderstorms across Oklahoma will attempt to
move into the region late this evening, and through the early
overnight period.
- Dangerous heat, including triple digit heat indices, are
expected through the week, and the Fourth of July holiday
weekend.
- Rain chances become minimal by the end of the week, but return
by the end of the weekend, with amounts generally below an
inch.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Rather quiet across the Four State Region as we head into the
afternoon. That being said, temperatures are quickly climbing with
many of the 12 PM CDT obs holding temperatures in the upper 80`s,
and even some low 90`s at both SHV and TXK. To be expected by
this point, the afternoon field of cumulus will remain overhead as
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms focus across the
eastern and southern zones. To the north of the FA, a cold front
will drift southward through the day, allowing for convective
coverage to increase across central Oklahoma through the mid and
late afternoon. This linear complex will attempt to work southward
into SE Oklahoma and the I-30 vicinity around midnight. Hi-res
guidance has been consistent in its presentation that the complex
will gradually dissipate through the overnight hours, potentially
even prior to reaching the I-20 corridor. To combat some
uncertainty, elected to hold slight chance PoPs within the I-20
vicinity through the early AM hours.
Though the brief stint with the surface boundary to the north and
the parent upper level trough swinging across the Upper Midwest will
briefly tamper with the upper ridge overhead, the ridge will
continue to influence the local region through tomorrow afternoon,
again setting the stage for another hot day. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will return again as the seasonal diurnal
convection trend continues through the first half of the week,
with a focus along the stronger boundary forcing across the NE/E
zones, though this time of the year anyone could see a pop up
storm given lingering residual boundaries mixed with peak heating.
Regarding the heat, and with another hot afternoon expected
tomorrow, heat products may be needed as heat indices climb
towards or possibly in excess of 105 deg F.
The story through the extended forecast, including the Fourth of
July holiday weekend, will be the heat. Base NBM output is already
pushing towards some higher end values, with highs in the upper 90`s
for many. Given the heat and aforementioned humidity, the odds that
heat products will be needed through the holiday, and the upcoming
weekend are increasing. With the ridge influence allowing for a
somewhat attractive outdoor forecast for a holiday weekend, and with
hot temperatures in play, hydration, shade and frequent breaks will
be a must to avoid the risk of heat related illness. As it stands
now, PoPs look hard to come by for the end of the week until the
return of sea breeze based convection late Sunday afternoon.
KNAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the 30/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field will persist across the region through the
afternoon, diminishing shortly after sunset. However, scattered
convection has developed along an old outflow bndry over SE OK,
which will gradually progress SE into extreme SE OK/adjacent SW
AR by mid to late afternoon. These storms may drift SE into far SW
and Srn AR by early evening, before gradually diminishing by or
shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Have maintained VCTS in for TXK only
for this evening, although isolated weak seabreeze convection over
SE TX may advance inland into portions of Deep E TX, but low
confidence precludes VCTS mention at LFK attm. Scattered stratocu
should again develop over the area by 14-15Z Tuesday, with
isolated to widely scattered convection developing by mid and late
afternoon over portions of Srn AR/N LA and NE TX generally
along/N of I-20. SW winds 7-10kts this afternoon will become S and
diminish to 3-6kts after 00Z. /15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening
for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over Southeast
Oklahoma and portions of Southwest Arkansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 96 77 96 / 20 20 10 20
MLU 76 96 74 94 / 20 40 20 30
DEQ 71 91 72 93 / 40 20 10 20
TXK 76 95 75 96 / 30 20 10 20
ELD 74 93 72 93 / 20 30 10 20
TYR 75 95 75 95 / 10 20 0 10
GGG 75 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 20
LFK 74 96 74 96 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
784
FXUS64 KSHV 301747 AAA
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
- Cold front driven thunderstorms across Oklahoma will attempt to
move into the region late this evening, and through the early
overnight period.
- Dangerous heat, including triple digit heat indices, are
expected through the week, and the Fourth of July holiday
weekend.
- Rain chances become minimal by the end of the week, but return
by the end of the weekend, with amounts generally below an
inch.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1155 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Rather quiet across the Four State Region as we head into the
afternoon. That being said, temperatures are quickly climbing with
many of the 12 PM CDT obs holding temperatures in the upper 80`s,
and even some low 90`s at both SHV and TXK. To be expected by
this point, the afternoon field of cumulus will remain overhead as
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms focus across the
eastern and southern zones. To the north of the FA, a cold front
will drift southward through the day, allowing for convective
coverage to increase across central Oklahoma through the mid and
late afternoon. This linear complex will attempt to work southward
into SE Oklahoma and the I-30 vicinity around midnight. Hi-res
guidance has been consistent in its presentation that the complex
will gradually dissipate through the overnight hours, potentially
even prior to reaching the I-20 corridor. To combat some
uncertainty, elected to hold slight chance PoPs within the I-20
vicinity through the early AM hours.
Though the brief stint with the surface boundary to the north and
the parent upper level trough swinging across the Upper Midwest will
briefly tamper with the upper ridge overhead, the ridge will
continue to influence the local region through tomorrow afternoon,
again setting the stage for another hot day. Afternoon showers
and thunderstorms will return again as the seasonal diurnal
convection trend continues through the first half of the week,
with a focus along the stronger boundary forcing across the NE/E
zones, though this time of the year anyone could see a pop up
storm given lingering residual boundaries mixed with peak heating.
Regarding the heat, and with another hot afternoon expected
tomorrow, heat products may be needed as heat indices climb
towards or possibly in excess of 105 deg F.
The story through the extended forecast, including the Fourth of
July holiday weekend, will be the heat. Base NBM output is already
pushing towards some higher end values, with highs in the upper 90`s
for many. Given the heat and aforementioned humidity, the odds that
heat products will be needed through the holiday, and the upcoming
weekend are increasing. With the ridge influence allowing for a
somewhat attractive outdoor forecast for a holiday weekend, and with
hot temperatures in play, hydration, shade and frequent breaks will
be a must to avoid the risk of heat related illness. As it stands
now, PoPs look hard to come by for the end of the week until the
return of sea breeze based convection late Sunday afternoon.
KNAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
VFR conditions will continue through the 30/18Z TAF period. A
scattered cu field will persist across the region through the
afternoon, diminishing shortly after sunset. However, scattered
convection has developed along an old outflow bndry over SE OK,
which will gradually progress SE into extreme SE OK/adjacent SW
AR by mid to late afternoon. These storms may drift SE into far SW
and Srn AR by early evening, before gradually diminishing by or
shortly after 06Z Tuesday. Have maintained VCTS in for TXK only
for this evening, although isolated weak seabreeze convection over
SE TX may advance inland into portions of Deep E TX, but low
confidence precludes VCTS mention at LFK attm. Scattered stratocu
should again develop over the area by 14-15Z Tuesday, with
isolated to widely scattered convection developing by mid and late
afternoon over portions of Srn AR/N LA and NE TX generally
along/N of I-20. SW winds 7-10kts this afternoon will become S and
diminish to 3-6kts after 00Z. /15/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Jun 30 2025
Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and evening
for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms over Southeast
Oklahoma and portions of Southwest Arkansas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 96 77 96 / 20 20 10 20
MLU 76 96 74 94 / 20 40 20 30
DEQ 71 91 72 93 / 40 20 10 20
TXK 76 95 75 96 / 30 20 10 20
ELD 74 93 72 93 / 20 30 10 20
TYR 75 95 75 95 / 10 20 0 10
GGG 75 94 75 95 / 10 20 10 20
LFK 74 96 74 96 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...53
AVIATION...15
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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