000
FXUS64 KSHV 240224
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
924 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018
.UPDATE...
A few changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Increased POPs to
low end chance category across portions of southeast OK and
southwest AR, as showers and thunderstorms albeit struggling to
get going, has commenced across the said areas per latest radar
analysis. Computer models continue to hint at the locales north of
the Four-State Region to be most favorable for precip chances. If
an additional update is warranted, will of course do so.
Otherwise, tweaked the sfc temperature curve to reflect current
trends and subsequently tweaked the relative humidity values and
dewpoint temperatures.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/
AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, as southwest
winds back to more of a south-southeast flow by tonight, with
speeds dropping to below 10 kts. Will see the return of MVFR to
possibly IFR CIGS overnight at most if not all of the terminals.
Computer models hint at a cluster of -SHRA/-TSRA that could affect
locales north of ktxk possibly later this evening/early tonight
and again tomorrow morning. Confidence is not high enough to
insert a precipitation mention at this time, but will of course
amend as necessary. CIGS will improve to VFR criteria by mid-late
Sunday morning. South-southwest wind speeds will increase into
the 10-15 kt sustained range, with gusts of 15-20 kts during the
afternoon hours.
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018/
SHORT TERM...
The afternoon visible satellite imagery indicates that the old outflow
bndry from the SE OK/extreme NE TX convection earlier this morning has
begun to retreat back N to near the Red River of Srn OK/NE TX, and
into SW AR, indicative of the Nwd expanding cu field over these areas.
This also correlates well with the sfc theta-e analysis, with a W to
E tongue of higher theta-e air extending near and just S of the Red
River of NNE TX into much of SW AR, which has resulted in dewpoints
climbing into the upper 70s as of 20Z. Even with temps in the lower
90s attm over these areas, heat indices have climbed to 105-109
degrees over a small area between PRX and ELD. This bndry should
continue to lift back N this evening and gradually wash out, with a
quiet evening expected with much of the cu field diminishing shortly
after sunset. However, still watching the cu field over N TX/Srn OK
along the wrn fringe of the sfc theta-e field, which may be the target
area this evening for sct convection development, ahead of subtle
shortwave impulses that will traverse OK/N TX. The 20Z raob from KFWD
still depicts some weak CIN over N TX which has not allowed for much
in the way of vertical growth to the cu field given the moderate
instability that has developed. The 12Z HREF and GFS are overdone with
convection development late this afternoon over these areas, although
more robust development could occur per the NAM/HRRR consensus over
Cntrl/Srn OK and portions of Wcntrl TX, which would traverse E along
the residual theta-e axis overnight.
Have trimmed back pops to slight chance this evening for just
McCurtain Co. OK and Sevier/Howard Counties in SW AR along the theta-e
axis, and have trimmed pops back tonight to low chance for the NW
zones to respect the potential for mesoscale bndrys that may
develop/surge ESE from the Cntrl/Srn OK and N TX convection. However,
the relatively dry air mass above the bndry lyr and the proximity of
the flat ridging over the Lower MS Valley should inhibit this
convection from reaching much of the CWA, if at all. Needless to say,
believe the severe potential is quite low for our region late tonight.
Whatever residual convection still ongoing Sunday morning should
quickly diminish by midday, as the Lower MS Valley/SE CONUS ridge
begins to expand farther W and amplify N into the Mid-South and TN
Valley Sunday afternoon/night. Did maintain slight chance pops for the
NW zones Sunday morning before removing them thereafter as the heat
cranks up further areawide. Have trended max temps slightly higher
than the blends/MOS (and more of persistence), with dewpoints expected
to mix out a little better over SE OK/SW AR/extreme NE TX where they
failed to do so this afternoon due to the moisture pooling along the
weak sfc bndry. Thus, heat indices will range from 100-105 degrees the
next couple of days, and therefore will hold off an a Heat Advisory
attm. Unfortunately, these hot (and above normal temps) and dry
conditions will continue throughout much of this week with little if
any relief in sight as we continue through the remainder of June.
15
LONG TERM.../Monday through Saturday Night/
A broad east to west upper ridge axis anchoring in around 593 meters
across the sw usa eastward to the MS river valley. A weak frontal
boundary approaching from the west will likely wash out before
arriving Monday night with no change to hot and precip free
conditions expected. Aside from some half hearted attempt at sea
breeze showers mainly south of the cwa by mid week, overall pattern
suggesting an extended rain free period, and little in the way of
clouds for much of that period.
Temps to continue in mainly the middle 90s for daytime highs, with
temps to finally begin to creep into upper 90s given strength of
ridge. Overnight lows likewise, will remain in the mid to upper 70s
as it appears that trapped moisture underneath the ridge will likely
remain in place with no source of ventilation to lower the
dewpoints, which have edged upwards over the past few days. /07/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 95 78 95 / 10 10 0 0
MLU 76 94 75 94 / 0 10 0 0
DEQ 74 92 74 93 / 30 20 0 10
TXK 76 94 76 94 / 10 10 0 0
ELD 77 94 76 94 / 10 10 0 10
TYR 77 95 77 94 / 20 10 0 10
GGG 77 95 77 95 / 10 10 0 0
LFK 77 95 77 95 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
29/15/07
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