Flood Concerns in Parts of the East; Severe Weather for High Plains; Fire Weather in West
A stationary front will continue to produce thunderstorms and heavy rain that may result in flash flooding across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic today. Meanwhile, strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from Montana to the southern Plains. Finally, a large area of elevated fire weather concerns with red flag warnings in effect across the West.
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000
FXUS64 KSHV 061805
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
105 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail through the 18Z TAF pd. Can`t rule out
an isold shwr/tstm this aftn, but uncertainty will preclude
mention attm. Light e to sely winds will become light and vrbl
overnight, and generally continue through mid morning Friday. /12/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1111 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/
UPDATE.../Today/
Temps running in the low to mid 80s at most sites this morning,
well on track to reaching the fcst max temps. With nwly flow
aloft, a lingering 850 mb boundary and abundant low level moisture
still in place across our sw, a few aftn shwrs/tstms cannot be
ruled out. That said, ongoing temp/PoP fcst for today, as well as
other minor elements, appear to be on track. /12/
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020/
SHORT TERM.../Today through Friday/
Subsidence in the wake of the convection on Wednesday is causing
havoc with short term progs this morning as much of the guidance
suggests we should be dealing with scattered to numerous convection
attm.
The ingredients are still there so to speak in that we are still
dealing with northwest flow aloft even though this flow looks much
cleaner attm upstream of our region compared to 24 hours ago.
Moisture axis in the form of PWATS in excess of 1.5 inches exists
across our southwest half this morning and 850mb thetae ridging
resides in the same general vicinity of the moisture axis in the sfc
to 400mb layer with some resemblance of a sfc trough also oriented
near an AEX to TYR line. Over the last hour, we have begun to see
isolated convection in the vicinity of the Toledo Bend Reservoir but
well under the kind of coverage several progs are showing we should
be dealing with at this time. Will go with slight chance to low end
chance pops across the western 2/3rds for today. Have also warmed
temperatures up quite a bit compared to what we saw with the
plentiful cloud cover and rainfall on Wednesday with NBM temps
having a pretty good handle on this.
Overnight, despite the upper level anticyclone remaining in place
across the TX Hill Country with the ridge axis residing into Central
and NE TX, progs are hinting at a weakness rounding the ridge across
Northern and Northeastern OK this evening with this forcing progd to
move into our northwest zones late tonight. There is good consensus
in this occurring between latest CAMS as well as HREF precip
depiction progs but nothing suggests that any convection that does
develop and/or move into the Middle Red River Valley of NE TX/SE OK
and SW AR will come as far south as N LA. Will therefore keep pops
confined to our northern areas only for late tonight. Stayed with
warmer NBM guidance temps overnight with the exception of our
eastern most zones where drier air should allow overnight temps to
fall into the 60s.
For Friday, that drier air across our eastern most zones will
retrograde westward into the heart of our region and with the higher
PWAT airmass confined to our northern most zones in proximity of
whatever is left of the upper forcing our region had to contend with
earlier in the morning, kept pops confined to our northern most
zones again for Friday. Likewise, continued the trend of warmer
temperatures for Friday with afternoon readings more typical for
early August.
13
LONG TERM.../Friday Night through Wednesday Night/
An upper ridge will build over the region through the weekend before
weakening by early next work week. Subsidence from the ridge should
keep rain chances low through at least Sunday, but will contribute
to rising heat and humidity. Daytime high temperatures should warm
into the mid 90s by Saturday and Sunday. Combined with the humidity,
heat index values will likely rise above Heat Advisory criteria
across most of the area on Sunday. While Saturday should remain dry,
chances for diurnal sea breeze convection should return beginning
Sunday afternoon, but these chances will be very limited to Deep
East Texas and Central Louisiana.
Chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms should gradually
improve and spread northwest across the region as the upper ridge
weakens considerably on Monday. Increased low-level southerly flow
in response to a developing lee surface trough over the High Plains
will increase moisture across the region, and hopefully enhance the
coverage of diurnal convection. Despite the increase in moisture,
increased cloud cover from the showers and thunderstorms should be
enough to cool temperatures a few degrees early next week, and
hopefully keep heat index values below advisory criteria.
CN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 73 94 75 / 20 0 10 0
MLU 92 68 93 72 / 10 0 0 0
DEQ 89 70 90 72 / 20 20 30 0
TXK 88 71 92 73 / 20 10 20 0
ELD 90 68 92 71 / 10 10 10 0
TYR 95 75 96 76 / 20 0 0 0
GGG 94 73 95 75 / 20 0 10 0
LFK 95 74 96 74 / 30 0 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
12/13/CN
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
254
FLUS44 KSHV 061751
HWOSHV
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020
ARZ050-051-059-060-070-071-LAZ001>003-010-011-017-018-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-071800-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Miller-Lafayette-Caddo-
Bossier-Webster-De Soto-Red River-Sabine-Natchitoches-McCurtain-
Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-
Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-
San Augustine-
1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southwest
Arkansas, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and
northeast Texas.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible through this
afternoon While severe weather is not anticipated, some of the
storms could produce gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and
frequent lightning.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas
Friday morning. While Saturday should be dry, daily chances for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze
will return Sunday afternoon and continue through Wednesday across
Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. Rain chances will gradually
increase and spread farther to the northwest during the beginning
of the upcoming work week. Severe weather is not expected at this
time.
Increasing heat and humidity will lead to rising heat index values
this weekend. Heat indices may rise to between 105 and 109 degrees
across much of the area Saturday and Sunday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters is not anticipated through
tonight. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.
$$
ARZ061-072-073-LAZ004>006-012>014-019>022-071800-
Nevada-Columbia-Union-Claiborne-Lincoln-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-
1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2020
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana and
northwest Louisiana.
.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...
No hazardous weather is expected through tonight.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across
Southeast Oklahoma and adjacent portions of Southwest Arkansas
Friday morning. While Saturday should be dry, daily chances for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze
will return Sunday afternoon and continue through Wednesday across
Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. Rain chances will gradually
increase and spread farther to the northwest during the beginning
of the upcoming work week. Severe weather is not expected at this
time.
Increasing heat and humidity will lead to rising heat index values
this weekend. Heat indices may rise to between 105 and 109 degrees
across much of the area Saturday and Sunday.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Activation of emergency management personnel...amateur radio
operators...and storm spotters will not be needed through
tonight. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.
$$
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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