000
FXUS64 KSHV 271520
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1020 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
...New SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1014 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
An upper-level weakness along the eastern periphery of the upper
ridge will support a chance for diurnally driven convection across
mainly deep east Texas and north Louisiana later this afternoon.
Ongoing showers across southeast Oklahoma will gradually diminish
within the next couple of hours with dry conditions expected
through the remainder of the day across these areas. With a cooler
airmass in place, expecting afternoon highs to range from the mid
80s north of I-30 to the lower 90s across much of deep east Texas
and north Louisiana this afternoon. Current forecast is on track
at this time, no update needed. /05/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
Surface high pressure of 1023mb will continue to move away stretch
of the eastern seaboard. This will open the door for us to see the
muggy Gulf moisture laden air make a move back well inland with some
warmer lows for midweek back in the low to mid 70s. Also with this
Gulf air, will be seeing diurnal convection returning on our fringe
of parishes during Wednesday afternoon from deep east TX up toward
NE LA. Also the weakness on the northern Gulf coast that we talked
about being SE of New Orleans is there, and NHC has it pegged as a
trough of low pressure that will be moving west into the coastal
bend of TX with only a ten percent chance to become a gale or
better. It is well modeled in the long term consensus to open and
close around 589dam, while feeding very slowly inland toward N TX by
this weekend. This will be increase our PWATs with tropical air and
allow for decent convection each afternoon for more and more of our
counties each day going from Thursday into Saturday.
This low and it`s moisture will be sliding East across the Natural
State during Sunday as an area of high pressure still looks to hold
fast in the Great Lakes this weekend, but it will pool the moisture
in our neck of the woods into the holiday as well. Both the GFS and
the ECMWF are fairly similar on the low and the cold front
sandwiching over our general four state area. We really do need the
rainfall, and like most convection this time of year, may put a
damper on conditions with some gusty winds and heavy downpours, but
only briefly and then clearing out for a cooler finish to the day.
That beats hot and dry any day, especially considering our on going
drought conditions. Highs and lows to end the work week and get
through the holiday weekend will remain closer to average for July.
Now if we can just get some decent rain going.
/24/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2022
For the 27/12Z TAF period, mostly VFR conditions persist despite
a fair amount cloud cover this morning. However, some low stratus
and stratocu does continue to spread southward across our airspace
with patchy MVFR/IFR cigs affecting our eastern terminals at KMLU
and possibly KELD as well. Otherwise, look for the advancing cold
front to continue shifting south through the region this morning.
Convection has largely dissipated despite the presence of the sfc
boundary, but some redevelopment is likely today mainly south of
I-20 so have included VCTS at KLFK later in the period during the
hours of peak heating. Winds will generally maintain a N/NE fetch
with fropa as speeds average between 5-10 kts through the period
with some higher gusts near 20 kts through the daytime hours.
/19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 92 69 92 66 / 20 0 0 0
MLU 88 68 89 66 / 20 10 10 0
DEQ 87 63 87 59 / 10 0 0 0
TXK 88 65 89 64 / 10 0 0 0
ELD 86 63 86 60 / 10 0 0 0
TYR 94 69 94 67 / 20 10 0 0
GGG 92 68 93 66 / 20 10 0 0
LFK 95 71 94 68 / 40 20 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...19
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