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Overview

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Several days of scattered showers and thunderstorms preceded this event, which provided very wet antecedent conditions. In fact, the Tri-Cities area had already had significant flash flooding during the late afternoon of Sunday, July 13th, when ~3" of rain fell in 45 minutes. Numerous water rescues were performed in Colonial Heights and Petersburg on 7/13 due to the very high rain rates. Flash flood guidance was only 1-1.5"/hour in the Tri-Cities right before the big event (due to the rain on 7/14). 

A very weak frontal boundary was sagging south toward the area during the afternoon/evening on 7/14. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms initially developed to our north (near that boundary) and also to our west along higher terrain. The environment ahead of the boundary (across most of our area) was characterized by very weak deep-layer flow and anomalously high PW values on the order of 2.1-2.2". A few severe storms and also some flash flooding was observed during the evening across the VA Piedmont and northern neck (near Tappahannock). While the severe threat ended by the early overnight due to the loss of daytime heating, the flash flooding persisted through the night. The storms eventually reached the Richmond Metro/Tri Cities by late evening, prompting Flash Flood Warnings. While the initial storms weakened, additional storms developed after midnight and trained along the stalled boundary from roughly Farmville to the Tri Cities east to Prince George/Sussex Counties. These storms ended up producing localized amounts as high as 7-9" of rain. In fact, the Petersburg Airport reported 7.33" of rain. This prompted a rare Flash Flood Emergency for the City of Petersburg in addition to portions of Colonial Heights. Looking at the mesoanalysis, one of the reasons the storms maintained their strength through the early morning hours was that there was a 25 knot 925mb jet across central NC and southern VA. The nose of that low-level jet was located right along the stalled boundary near the Tri-Cities, with ~19C dew pts at 925mb advecting northward. So while the convection was elevated (thus reducing the severe threat), it was able to maintain itself while continuing to backbuild over the same areas, thus the very high localized rain amounts and severe flash flooding.

Severe flash flooding was observed in the Tri Cities, with the worst of the impacts being in Petersburg. The gauge at Lieutenant Run Creek at Bollingbrook (in Petersburg) crested 4 ft above its major flood threshold. Water levels there rose by 10 ft in just over 2 hours, which is very impressive. The flooding in Petersburg did significant damage to 5 homes and numerous businesses along Lieutenant Run.  Water was about 1 foot deep in homes while about 3 feet deep outside the houses on McKeever St.  Businesses along Wythe St and Bollingbrook Ave also saw significant flooding with water 3-4 feet deep inside some of the businesses. There were also numerous road closures across central and south central VA. A 3 mile stretch of Route 460 was closed in Prince George County for ~12 hours due to flooding. Also, a portion of I-85 in Mecklenburg County was closed during the evening of 7/15, as additional scattered storms later that day caused more flooding (but fortunately missed the Tri Cities).

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