Storm system to bring potential for heavy rainfall, flooding, and severe thunderstorms
A slow moving low pressure system will bring the threat for heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms Sunday into Monday. The main threat areas include the Mid South, Southeast U.S, and the southern Mid Atlantic.
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Warm conditions are expected for the first half of the upcoming work week. The warmest conditions are expected on Tuesday, especially for those locations west of the dryline (dashed yellow line). There will be a risk for grassfires across these areas west of the dryline (dashed yellow line) as temperatures soar into the low to mid 90s. The next chance for rain is expected on Wednesday ahead of a cold front.
Chances for thunderstorms will return late this week Thursday and Friday. A dryline is forecast to set up near U.S. Highway 281 each afternoon and early evening, but a strong capping inversion aloft will exist south of a warm front moving north into Oklahoma during the period. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible along and north of the warm front late Thursday, with less certainty south and along the dryline. Thunderstorms may form further south of the stalling front over the Red River, as an upper level trough approaches. If storms were to be able to break the cap east of the dryline both days, they could become strong to severe. There remains plenty of uncertainty with regards to the timing and placement of key features, along with severe storm ingredients. Details in the forecast should become more clear as week progresses. Continue to monitor future forecasts this week.