Overview
Low pressure began to develop along the coast of Georgia during the morning of 1/31 while ~1042mb Arctic high pressure was centered over the Plains. A piece of that high had already built over the northern Mid-Atlantic, ushering in very cold but also dry air from the N-NNE to the local area. An upper low then dove from the TN Valley to South Carolina during the day on 1/31 before becoming negatively tilted as it moved offshore of the South Carolina coast during the night of 1/31 and morning of 2/1. This allowed for the weak surface low to rapidly deepen about 100-150 miles off the Carolina coast from the afternoon of 1/31 to the morning of 2/1. In fact, it deepened an astounding ~30mb from the morning of 1/31 to morning of 2/1. An area of snow associated with lift from the upper low impacted western VA and west-central NC during the morning and through the day on 1/31. This area of snow largely missed the local area to the southwest. Another area of precipitation associated with the rapidly deepening coastal low broke out over eastern NC (initially south of our area) during the morning of 1/31. Temperatures were in the upper teens with very low dew points during the morning of 1/31 across the AKQ CWA, and there was a well-defined dry layer between 900 and 800mb that would have to be overcome before any precipitation reached the ground (see mesoanalysis section for details). Interestingly, there was widespread lift from 700-500mb across central and southern portions of the CWA through the event, but that low-level dry air proved to be very hard to overcome. Snow eventually overspread far southern VA and NE NC during the afternoon and evening, but struggled to make it north of a Lunenburg-Wakefield-Norfolk line. And even in southside Hampton Roads (including Norfolk and Chesapeake), that dry layer would remain there for several hours before snow finally started accumulating around 7-8 PM (there were radar echoes here for much of the afternoon as snow sublimated before reaching the ground). Also, mesoscale analysis noted that the main mid-level frontogenesis zone (in the DGZ), remained across NE NC, with sinking motion across much of SE VA on the cold side of the frontogenetic circulation. Snow quickly ended across SE VA by midnight but persisted across NE NC (especially near the Albemarle/Currituck Sounds) through 4-7 AM on 2/1.
The only part of our CWA to see 6"+ amounts was NE NC, where near blizzard conditions were observed from Elizabeth City to the coast. Winds gusted to 45-55 mph out of the north during the latter part of the event thanks to a tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the low. Ultimately, the swath of 6"+ amounts ended up 30-40 miles south of where a lot of the global models and ensembles were forecasting it to be as that dry air proved very hard to overcome.
Snow/Sleet Totals
Radar
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| 1 PM to 7 PM in 30 minute increments | 7 PM to 1 AM in 30 minute increments | 1 AM to 7 AM in 30 minute increments |
Storm Reports
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Wakefield VA 924 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...North Carolina... ...Bertie County... 1 ENE Aulander 8.0 in 0917 AM 02/01 Public Kelford 7.0 in 0926 AM 02/01 Broadcast Media ...Camden County... Riddle 8.5 in 1000 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 W Belcross 6.0 in 1140 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter Shiloh 4.5 in 0712 PM 01/31 Public ...Chowan County... 2 SW Saint Johns 7.4 in 0700 AM 02/01 CO-OP Observer Edenton 7.4 ESE 6.1 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Currituck County... 1 N Aydlett 10.5 in 1000 PM 01/31 Public Grandy 0.6 E 10.0 in 0600 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Point Harbor 8.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 Public Grandy 7.0 in 1045 PM 01/31 CO-OP Observer 1 N Moyock 5.0 in 0843 AM 02/01 Public 1 NW Moyock 5.0 in 0949 AM 02/01 Public 3 N Sligo 4.8 in 1230 AM 02/01 Public Moyock 3.5 in 0901 PM 01/31 Public ...Gates County... 1 ESE Gates 3.5 in 1100 PM 01/31 Public 2 WSW Easons Crossroads 3.0 in 0835 AM 02/01 Emergency Mngr ...Hertford County... Winton 6.0 in 0930 PM 01/31 Public Murfreesboro 5.5 in 0851 PM 01/31 Public 2 S Murfreesboro 5.3 in 0935 AM 02/01 Public Ahoskie 4.5 in 0801 PM 01/31 911 Call Center 1 N Winton 3.5 in 0758 PM 01/31 911 Call Center ...Northampton County... Severn 4.0 in 0910 PM 01/31 Public 3 W Severn 4.0 in 0952 PM 01/31 Public ...Pasquotank County... 3 NNW Elizabeth City 9.3 in 1130 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 2 SSW Burnt Mills 9.0 in 0200 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Elizabeth City 5.1 SSE 6.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 WNW Weeksville 6.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 Cocorahs 2 WSW Elizabeth City 6.0 in 1230 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 NE Elizabeth City 5.8 in 0800 AM 02/01 CO-OP Observer Elizabeth City 7.7 SSW 5.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Elizabeth City 0.8 NW 5.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 WSW Spences Corner 5.0 in 0941 AM 02/01 Public 1 ESE Weeksville 4.0 in 1130 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 3 WSW Spences Corner 3.0 in 0900 AM 02/01 Cocorahs ...Perquimans County... Hertford 5.2 SSE 9.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Hertford 6.0 SSE 8.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 NW Holiday Island 7.0 in 1200 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter Hertford 4.2 N 6.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 W Jacocks 5.0 in 1200 PM 02/01 Trained Spotter 1 NW Holiday Island 4.5 in 1100 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter ...Virginia... ...Accomack County... Chincoteague 0.6 SE T 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Brunswick County... Lawrenceville 1.2 SSW 1.8 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Alberta 5 N 0.3 in 0800 AM 02/01 COOP ...Chesterfield County... Chester 3.3 WSW T 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...City of Chesapeake... Chesapeake 6.7 NE 3.7 in 0716 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Great Bridge 3.0 in 0915 AM 02/01 NWS Employee Chesapeake 1.8 NE 2.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 NNW Hickory 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 SE South Norfolk 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Public 1 WNW Fentress 2.0 in 1040 PM 01/31 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Western Branch 1.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 Public ...City of Colonial Heights... Colonial Heights 0.3 ENE T in 1210 PM 02/01 COCORAHS ...City of Emporia... Emporia 1.3 SW 5.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...City of Franklin... Hunterdale 4.3 in 1030 PM 01/31 Trained Spotter Hunterdale 3.0 in 0600 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...City of Newport News... Newport News 0.9 S 1.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 WSW Beaconsdale 0.4 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Newport News 2.7 ESE 0.3 in 0600 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Newport News 5.8 N 0.3 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...City of Norfolk... 2 SE Norview 2.0 in 1000 PM 01/31 CO-OP Observer 1.6 SE Norview 2.0 in 1159 PM 01/31 COOP 2 S Norfolk International Ar 2.0 in 1019 PM 01/31 Public ...City of Portsmouth... Downtown Portsmouth 2.0 in 1052 PM 01/31 Broadcast Media Portsmouth 4.1 SSE 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 E Western Branch 2.0 in 1130 PM 01/31 Public Cradock 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Public 1 NE Churchland 1.3 in 0800 AM 02/01 Public ...City of Suffolk... 2 NW Kilby 4.2 in 1249 AM 02/01 Public 3 SSE Cleopus 3.0 in 0730 PM 01/31 Public Holland 3.0 in 1200 PM 02/01 Public 1 NNE Somerton 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 Trained Spotter 3 ESE Kings Fork 2.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 Public Suffolk 2.9 NNW 2.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Whaleyville 2.0 in 0819 PM 01/31 Public 1 NW Driver 1.8 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Suffolk 8.1 N 1.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Suffolk 13.9 NNE 1.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...City of Virginia Beach... 2 SW Princess Anne 4.0 in 0850 AM 02/01 Public 3 NE Mount Pleasant 3.3 in 0800 AM 02/01 Public Virginia Beach 9.8 NNE 3.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 N Princess Anne 3.0 in 0541 AM 02/01 Public Virginia Beach 6.0 WNW 2.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 1 SW Gallups Corner 2.5 in 0757 AM 02/01 Public 2 NE Kempsville 2.0 in 0941 PM 01/31 Broadcast Media Virginia Beach 2.0 in 0922 PM 01/31 Public 2 SSW Gallups Corner 2.0 in 0954 AM 02/01 Public Virginia Beach 3.1 ENE 1.6 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 N Sigma 1.6 in 0646 AM 02/01 Public Virginia Beach 8.5 N 1.5 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 WSW Gallups Corner 1.5 in 0838 PM 01/31 Trained Spotter ...City of Williamsburg... Williamsburg 1.4 ENE 0.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 0.3 SSW 0.3 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg T in 0621 PM 01/31 Public ...Gloucester County... James Store 1.5 WNW T in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Gloucester 3.9 ESE T in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Gloucester Point 0.6 S T in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Gloucester Courthouse 3.3 SS T in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Greensville County... 3 N Dahlia 4.0 in 0948 PM 01/31 Public Emporia 11.0 SW 3.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Purdy 2.0 in 1103 PM 01/31 Trained Spotter ...Isle of Wight County... Smithfield 1.3 SW 0.8 in 0630 AM 02/01 COCORAHS 2 NNW Benns Church 0.5 in 1100 PM 01/31 NWS Employee ...James City County... Jamestown 0.8 in 0830 PM 01/31 Public Williamsburg 2.9 SW 0.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 3.2 WNW 0.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 3.4 W 0.5 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 3.8 WSW 0.3 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 3.5 WNW 0.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 6.8 NW 0.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 6.5 NW 0.1 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 5.1 SE 0.1 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Williamsburg 8.8 NNW T in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Lancaster County... Urbanna 6.2 NNE T in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Lunenburg County... Victoria 0.9 N 0.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Mecklenburg County... 2 ENE Richardson 5.5 in 0915 PM 01/31 Public Bracy 5.0 E 2.0 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Middlesex County... Deltaville 1.0 NE T in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...New Kent County... 0.6 SW Eltham T in 1200 AM 02/01 COOP ...Prince George County... South Prince George 6.8 S 0.7 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Disputanta 6.3 NE 0.2 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Southampton County... 2 SSE Sunbeam 5.0 in 0946 PM 01/31 Public 3 N Newsoms 4.0 in 0949 PM 01/31 Public 3 NNE Riverdale 3.8 in 0946 PM 01/31 Public Sedley 3.7 N 1.3 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS Ivor 2.7 ESE 1.0 in 0700 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...Sussex County... 1 NW Wakefield 1.0 in 0700 PM 01/31 Official NWS Obs Wakefield 0.1 ENE 0.7 in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS ...York County... 2.1 N Williamsburg 0.1 in 1200 AM 02/01 COOP Williamsburg 3.4 ENE T in 0800 AM 02/01 COCORAHS &&
Environment
Insert synoptic summary.
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| WPC Surface Analysis from 7 PM on 1/30 to 1 PM on 2/1 in 3 hour increments | 500mb Analysis from 1/30 to 2/1 at 12z |
Near-storm environment summary.
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| Figure 4: Caption | Figure 5: Caption | Figure 6: Caption |
NAM Analysis Sounding Loops from 18z/1 PM on 1-31 to 12z/7 AM on 2-1.
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| Richmond, VA (KRIC) | Norfolk, VA (KORF) | Elizabeth City, NC (KECG) |
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