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Ida made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 4 Hurricane on Sunday, August 29th. Ida weakened to a tropical depression as it tracked northeast through northern/western Mississippi. Ida transitioned into an extratropical cyclone as it approached the Appalachians on Tuesday (8/31). Ida tracked to the east-northeast from the central Appalachians to southern New Jersey from the morning through evening hours on Wednesday, 9/1. Almost all of the widespread flooding/flash flooding impacts occurred near or to the northwest of Ida's track. A warm front remained just to our north on 9/1, and the entire Wakefield forecast area remained in the warm sector through the duration of the event (before the trailing cold front moved through Wednesday night). There were multiple strong (EF-2 to EF-3) tornadoes near that warm front just to our north and northeast. In our area, there was one EF-0 tornado in northeast Dorchester County, MD.

A broken line of showers and a few t-storms developed across central portions of the forecast area by midday. During the afternoon, these showers/storms strengthened as they moved into eastern VA and the Lower Eastern Shore (into an environment with higher instability thanks to daytime heating). Temperatures were generally in the 80s during the afternoon with mid 70s dew points. As with any remnant tropical system, it is important to watch for the potential for tornadoes. Surface winds were more out of the south than southeast in most of the AKQ CWA, with more backing of the winds from Dorchester County MD and especially near and north of a Washington D.C. to Dover, DE line (closer to the warm front). This yielded effective SRH values of 100-200 m2/s2 in our area (highest over the MD Eastern Shore). While this certainly signaled the potential for rotating storms, other environmental parameters (as well as the overall setup) were a bit less than ideal for a tornado outbreak in our area (LCLs were around 1000 meters AGL with no discernable surface boundaries nearby, no prominent mid-level dry air punch behind the storms, and only a marginal amount of low-level directional shear with winds more S than SE for most of the area). There were multiple storms from Caroline County to the VA Northern Neck that exhibited rotational velocities (Vrot) of around/just above 20 knots at ~5000 ft ARL, but no tornadoes were reported with these cells until after they crossed the Potomac and moved into an environment with slightly better low-level directional shear and lower LCLs. Lastly, with the fairly strong speed shear from the surface to ~700 mb, some of the storms that tracked across eastern VA during the afternoon were able to produce strong to severe winds (the KJGG AWOS recorded a 49 knot/56 MPH thunderstorm wind gust with one of these storms, which is not that common to see with an AWOS in our area). Several trees were downed from these severe storms. The tornado in Dorchester County, MD overturned several irrigation systems and caused a ~40 foot wide hole in the roof of a metal building.

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