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000
FLUS43 KAPX 201528
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1128 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099-211200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix-
1128 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 201625
SWODY1
SPC AC 201624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected through tonight.

...Central and western PA/NY this afternoon...
A surface cyclone in western PA has occluded and will weaken
steadily through the period while drifting northeastward, as the
associated midlevel low likewise weakens over the upper OH Valley.
A narrow zone of surface heating and residual low-level moisture now
across central PA will support some low-topped convection along the
surface wind shift/convergence axis as it shifts northward toward
western NY. However, forcing for ascent will diminish this
afternoon in conjunction with the weakening cyclone, and the window
of opportunity for sustained storms is small. Given strong
deep-layer southerly flow/shear and long hodographs, there will be
some conditional threat for low-topped supercells. Still, midlevel
lapse rates are poor and will diminish from south to north, and
vertical mixing of low-level moisture will offset surface heating
and limit the magnitude/depth of buoyancy (along with the poor lapse
rate profiles). Weakening of low-level shear is also expected
within the narrow zone where surface-based buoyancy develops. As
such, the overall potential for severe storms appears too marginal
to warrant any probabilities.

...Great Basin to the northern Plains through tonight...
An initial midlevel trough over northwestern AZ this morning will
eject east-northeastward toward the central High Plains overnight.
Farther north, a separate shortwave trough over OR will progress
inland over the Great Basin. Isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in
association with this trough, and the threat for additional isolated
thunderstorms will continue through late evening. An isolated
strong storm with gusty outflow winds and/or small hail cannot be
ruled out from southwestern ID to southern MT, but the overall
severe-storm threat is too limited to necessitate introduction of
wind/hail probabilities. Otherwise, a few elevated thunderstorms
may also form tonight across the northern Plains, where ascent and
moistening atop a tightening baroclinic zone will support weak
buoyancy in the mid levels.

..Thompson/Squitieri.. 04/20/2019

$$


311
ACUS02 KWNS 201720
SWODY2
SPC AC 201719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA....

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms with a potential for hail and strong
wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central Plains on
Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Central Plains...

A weak lead shortwave impulse will eject across the central Plains
ahead of the main western trough on Sunday. Boundary layer moisture
will increase ahead of a developing surface low over the central
High Plains and dewpoints will reach into the upper 50s to low 60s.
A cold front extended from southern MN into southwest NE during the
afternoon will drop southeast across the central and into the
southern Plains through the overnight hours.

As forcing increases across the region, midlevel capping should be
sufficiently weakened and isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface low and cold
front across northeast CO. With time, thunderstorms will develop
eastward along the cold front across portions of northwest into
central KS and south-central NE where instability will be maximized
(MLCAPE from 500-2000 J/KG) and midlevel lapse rates will be on the
order of 7.5-8.5 C/km. Despite weak to moderate instability, deep
layer shear will be modest, around 25-35 kt, marginally supporting
supercells and storm clusters, but stronger updrafts should be
fairly transient/short-lived. Storms will struggle to become
surface based given the weak elevated mixed layer and timing
(evening into overnight) and should remain elevated. As such, a
marginal risk for hail and possibly a few strong wind gusts will
accompany storms the develop from late afternoon into late tomorrow
night.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Leitman.. 04/20/2019

$$



000
NWUS53 KAPX 191041
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
641 AM EDT FRI APR 19 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0613 AM HEAVY RAIN EAST TAWAS 44.28N 83.48W
04/19/2019 M1.04 INCH IOSCO MI MESONET

MESONET STATION CW9703 EAST TAWAS.


&&

$$

SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 201733
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
133 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1122 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Plenty of sun-filled skies across the area this morning as even
the high clouds near Saginaw Bay, tied to Ohio Valley low
pressure, have greatly thinned in the last few hours. Would expect
these to fill in just a bit, with mostly sunny skies prevailing
elsewhere. All that sun already doing a number on temperatures,
and still expect readings during the afternoon to climb well up
into the 50s (coolest near Lake Huron), with a few locations
likely topping 60 degrees.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

High impact weather: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Really quiet in nrn Michigan tonight with very dry air and
relatively higher pressure sneaking in from the west. Skies were
clear and temperatures were cooling decently in most areas. This is
due to weakening N/NE winds in many areas, especially low lying
areas away from NE lower where the gradient remained a bit more
tightened. We typically get quite the range under these conditions.
Right now, we have readings ranging from the upper 20s in those low
lying areas, to the lower 40s in some coastal locations. There were
two areas of low pressure. One was lifting slowly north from the
Ohio valley and the other moving east through far nrn Ontario. The
one lifting from the Ohio valley, was resulting in plenty of showers
across the eastern part of the conus. Part of these showers were
pressing north toward the thumb of lower Michigan.

Not much in the way will occur today. The very dry air mass will
slowly drift in over nrn Michigan today and tonight. Very sunny
skies expected across most of nrn Michigan. Across portions of far
NE lower, some thicker cloud cover will arrive later today, but
latest trends suggest that there is very little chance for those
showers to reach the SE CWA. These clouds will slide east of NE
lower tonight, while weak low pressure works across upper Michigan.
The air mass will gradually moisten ahead of this low pressure, but
this will mainly occur in the mid and upper levels resulting in
increased cloud cover.

Highs today will range from the upper 50s and lower 60s in most
areas, to as low as the lower half of the 50s across a good chunk
of NE lower. Lows tonight will mostly be in the lower to middle 30s,
with some potential upper 20s in low lying areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...The overall pattern looks to be evolving
as expected for the next few days. The zonal flow just north of the
border(Canada) looks to continue based on the SREF/GFS/ECMWF 500 mb
patterns through 12z/Tues. So the details look like this...Sunday
morning, the moisture is returning along the zonal jet stream at 500
mb along with the thermal ridge nosing into Ontario/Lake Superior
and along the warm front that is setting up, that stretches back
into the Plains. Through the day, the pattern sinks south a bit, as
the 500 mb trough in the west begins to rotate into the Desert SW,
and the eastern 500 mb low is beginning to fill and move a bit NE
off New England. As the moisture returns along the warm front, the
chance for rain showers increases, but with the zonal flow, and the
lack of vigorous shortwaves, rain showers fairly scattered through
Sunday night and into Monday morning. The pattern and scattered
showers look to continue into Tuesday morning as the Desert SW low
continues to dig and rotate, and the eastern low moves off shore.

Primary Forecast Concerns...The showers look mainly scattered, but
the main concern would be if we could get any thunder. Models show
weak jet streaks at 500 mb with the peak winds around 35-40 knots
through the period, and little CAPE or elevated CAPE (MUCAPE between
50-150J/kg). So will don`t think thunder is likely, but there is a
small chance.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal.

The western 500 mb trough digs into the Desert SW while the
eastern low has departed the CONUS. This allows the jet stream to
sink south a bit, and allow for some drier air to settle into the
Upper Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning.
Thursday, the scattered showers are back as a 500 mb jet streak
noses into the Upper Great Lakes. However, the duration of the
showers is in dispute between the wetter GFS and the drier ECWMF.
The difference today is the ECMWF has moved the Desert SW low into
the Gulf States, and deepened it. This slows the pattern down as
the 500 mb shortwave moving through the Upper Great Lakes is
connected to the Gulf low. This keeps the energy with the 500 mb
low, than with the shortwave in the Great Lakes, and keeps us
drier than the GFS solution. By Friday, things dry out, but
another shortwave begins to move into the Upper Great Lakes as it
moves out of the 500 mb ridge in the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

VFR conditions through the period with just some passing high and
mid level clouds...with those especially on Sunday. No vis
restrictions with an extremely dry low level airmass. Northeast
winds, a touch gusty today, become light and variable tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2019

Low pressure in the Ohio valley will lift up through the eastern
Great Lakes through Sunday, when a cold front falls into northern
Michigan and stalls out for Sunday night when there will also be a
chance for showers. Advisory level NE winds will still impact Lake
Huron nearshore waters south of Alpena for today, before winds
become light and more variable with the incoming cold front.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LHZ348-349.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...JL
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...SMD


781
ACUS11 KWNS 200443
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200442
NCZ000-200615-

Mesoscale Discussion 0415
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2019

Areas affected...eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 200442Z - 200615Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...At least a marginal risk for isolated strong to damaging
wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will exist over a portion of
eastern NC next couple hours. Unless storms begin to show a more
substantial tendency for organization, a WW will probably not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...A band of storms has recently increased from the Gulf
Stream into a portion of southeast NC and appears to be developing
along a pre-frontal convergence boundary. Adjusted for surface
temperatures and dewpoints, RAP forecast soundings suggest the
storms are probably slightly elevated above a shallow surface stable
layer, and objective analysis indicates MLCAPE around 500 J/kg.
Storms remain embedded within very strong largely unidirectional
wind profiles with 55 kt 0-6 km shear. Based on current
north-northeast storm motions, 0-1 km storm relative helicity
remains around 150-200 m2/s2 despite strong low-level speed shear.
The marginal thermodynamic environment should remain a primary
limiting factor. Nevertheless, trends will continue to be monitored
for potential organization.

..Dial/Dean.. 04/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

LAT...LON 34037740 35367746 36227701 35977592 34597625 34037740




000
WGUS43 KAPX 182153
FLWAPX


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
553 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

...The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a flood warning
for the following rivers in ...

Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Recent heavy rainfall will cause the Rifle River near Sterling to
rise just above flood stage tonight. The river is forecast to fall
back below flood stage by Friday afternoon. An additional tenth of
an inch of rain is expected tonight through Wednesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...


Persons in the warned areas should take steps to protect property
from rising water levels.


The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement
on this developing situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-190952-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0002.190419T0000Z-190420T0000Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190419T0000Z.190419T0600Z.190419T1800Z.NO/
553 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2019

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Flood Warning for
The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Friday evening....
* At 5:30 PM Thursday the stage was 5.9 feet.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to
rise to near 6.4 feet through tonight. The river will
fall below flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at
River View Campground.


&&

FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Fri Sat Sun

Rifle River
Sterling 6 5.9 Thu 05 PM 6.4 5.5 4.6


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
4408 8384 4399 8379



$$



728
WGUS83 KAPX 200238
FLSAPX


Flood Statement
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1038 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

...The flood warning continues for the following rivers in
Michigan...

Rifle River near Sterling AFFECTING Arenac County

.Recent rainfall has pushed the Rifle River near Sterling to above flood
stage. The river level is forecast to remain above flood stage through
Saturday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Safety message...

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio...or local media outlets...for the
latest information concerning this flooding situation.

The National Weather Service in Gaylord will issue another statement
on this situation as new information becomes available.


&&

MIC011-201330-
/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-190420T1330Z/
/STRM4.1.ER.190418T2215Z.190419T1630Z.190420T0730Z.NO/
1038 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2019

The Flood Warning continues for
The Rifle River near Sterling.
* until Saturday morning.
* At 10:30 PM Friday the stage was 6.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by
early tomorrow.
* Impact...At 6.0 feet...High water begins to impact canoe livery at
River View Campground.


&&

FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 7AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME Sat Sun Mon

Rifle River
Sterling 6 6.4 Fri 10 PM 4.8 4.4 4.1


&&


LAT...LON 4399 8384 4407 8408 4416 8408 4416 8398
4408 8384 4399 8379



$$