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132
FLUS43 KAPX 192021
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
421 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-201000-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
421 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Gale force wind gusts will continue for portions of Lake Michigan
and Lake Huron tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Accumulating snowfall is possible Saturday afternoon and evening
across portions of eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan.
Slick spots may develop on some area roadways.

Gale force gusts are possible again Saturday and Saturday night
for portions of the Lake Michigan and Lake Huron.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



000
ACUS01 KWNS 191931
SWODY1
SPC AC 191930

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected over the U.S. today.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Some changes to the categorical (10 percent probability of) thunder
line have been made, mostly in an attempt to better account for
latest observational trends.

Across Florida, relatively warm layers aloft and weak/negligible
forcing for ascent probably will continue to minimize the risk for
thunderstorms. However, the initiation of an isolated thunderstorm
may not yet be out of the question through around 6-7 PM EDT across
parts of the central Peninsula, where boundary layer instability
(CAPE up to 1000 J/kg) has become locally maximized.

..Kerr.. 10/19/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018/

...Synopsis...
Large-scale trough amplification will occur through tonight over the
Great Lakes and Midwest. Prevalent cool/stable conditions will
relegate isolated thunderstorm potential to the southern tier of the
CONUS. Near a remnant baroclinic zone, the most probable area for a
few thunderstorms will be in the warm advection zone from the middle
TX coast northward, with only isolated thunderstorms expected
farther east along the Gulf Coast into northern FL. Other elevated
convection will be possible from northern Mexico into the TX Big
Bend vicinity.

$$


812
ACUS02 KWNS 191725
SWODY2
SPC AC 191725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Saturday through Saturday night.

...Synopsis...
Within one branch of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude
Pacific, large-scale ridging appears likely to persist across and
inland of the British Columbia/Pacific Northwest coast, while
downstream troughing prevails over eastern North America. One or
two embedded short wave troughs emerging from the northeast Pacific
may suppress the ridging across the Canadian Prairies into the
central Canadian/U.S. border area Saturday through Saturday night.
However, a vigorous short wave trough of Arctic origins is forecast
to dig southeast of the Upper Midwest, through the Mid Atlantic
Coast region by 12Z Sunday, and contribute to further amplification
of the larger-scale troughing. This will likely lead to continued
suppression of mid/upper subtropical ridging across the eastern Gulf
and south Atlantic coasts.

At the same time, within a branch of westerlies emanating from the
subtropical eastern Pacific, a broad mid-level low may continue to
evolve within larger-scale troughing near the California/northern
Baja coast.

This pattern is expected to maintain generally stable conditions now
present across much of the nation, but a few areas with low
probabilities for scattered thunderstorm activity may develop
Saturday into Saturday night.

...Lower Great Lakes into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau...
Strong mid-level cooling, associated with large-scale ascent and
cold advection (to less than -30 C at 500 mb), is forecast to
accompany the digging short wave trough. Despite relatively
cool/low moisture content boundary layer conditions ahead of the
associated reinforcing cold front, forecast soundings suggest that
daytime heating may contribute to sufficient steepening of low-level
lapse rates and CAPE to support low-topped convection capable of
producing lightning. This potential will be maximized during the
mid to late afternoon, and may include much of the upper Ohio Valley
and Allegheny Plateau, in addition to coastal areas downstream
(southeast) of the lower Great Lakes.

...Central/eastern Gulf Coast region...
Along/ahead of an initial surface front advancing southward across
the region, weak to moderate boundary layer CAPE may provide support
for scattered thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon, near the
southern periphery of the evolving cyclonic mid/upper flow. Given
the expected tendency for sustained convection to be undercut by the
cold front, in the presence of otherwise modest to weak shear, any
severe weather potential still appears negligible at this time.

...Parts of southern Arizona into the Colorado Valley...
Models indicate that a corridor of weak to moderate instability may
develop near the leading edge of the mid-level cooling associated
with the evolving upper low/trough. This may become sufficient to
initiate scattered thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night.
However, at this time, the environment still appears unlikely to
support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None

..Kerr.. 10/19/2018

$$



605
NWUS53 KAPX 191606
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1206 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1106 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE LELAND 45.02N 85.76W
10/19/2018 M42 MPH LMZ344 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XLEL, LELAND.

1135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAC ISLAND 45.87N 84.64W
10/19/2018 M41 MPH MACKINAC MI AWOS

AWOS STATION MCD, MACKINAC ISLAND.

0324 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.73W
10/19/2018 M40 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI BUOY

BUOY STATION MACM4, MACKINAW CITY.

0150 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 47 E OSCODA 44.30N 82.40W
10/19/2018 M40 MPH LHZ363 MI BUOY

BUOY STATION 45008, 28 ENE HURON CITY.


&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 191955
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
355 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Showery Weather Continues...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon analysis reveals a lead
short-wave trough advancing through the western Great Lakes this
afternoon. Secondary wave is diving down through Minnesota.
Surface low pressure is over eastern Ontario with cold front
trailing back through Wisconsin. Ahead of the front, round of
short wave, warm advection and upper jet divergence forced rain
showers continue to impact the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal.

Lead short-wave trough, narrow theta-e axis and strongest QG-
forcing for ascent will advance eastward out of the CWA through
early evening, with the upstream cold front swinging through the
region later in the evening. Greatest coverage of showers has
probably already come and gone although there will be additional
showers moving through ahead and along the front and as the
secondary short-wave moves through.

Push of colder air follows once again and we will see and eventual
transition back to lake effect showers overnight and heading into
Saturday. Largely rain showers anticipated through tonight, although
temp profiles do cool enough for a mix or possibly a complete
changeover to snow in the U.P.

Otherwise, winds have been gusty, but only modestly so in the 25
to 35 mph range. Winds will diminish some tonight, increasing
again on Saturday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Saturday through Monday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Brisk winds, turning much colder, and lake effect showers...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal snow accumulations possible
in some areas Saturday. Some gale force gusts possible on Lakes
Michigan and Huron at times Saturday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Anomalous deep mid/upper troughing will
dig into the Great Lakes region on Saturday, accompanied by a core
of much colder air aloft (1000-500mb thicknesses dropping to ~521
dam over northern Michigan). Strong cold air advection will occur
through the day behind a departing secondary cold front, with H8
temps falling to -8C to -10C by late afternoon. This will produce
delta Ts around 20 degrees, yielding plenty of lake-induced
instability to generate lake effect showers through the day. By
Saturday evening the upper trough will pivot off to the east with
rising heights as high pressure builds in from the west. That
surface high will spread through the Ohio Valley on Sunday, with
return flow and warm air advection developing ahead of an
approaching cold front poised to cross the area on Monday.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Rain showers changing to snow showers on
Saturday. Potential for gales on Saturday.

Quite an impressive mid/upper level trough progged to drop through
the Great Lakes Saturday morning, with H5 heights overhead around 3
standard deviations below the mean. Moisture will increase through
the lower levels with a mean 850-700mb RH at 90% or higher for many
areas through the day. Inversion heights will start out around 10
kft through about mid afternoon before dropping on the backside of
the upper trough, and gusty NW winds will provide plenty of upslope
forcing in the favored snowbelts. Thus, expect some vigorous lake
effect bands to develop Saturday morning and continue into the
afternoon before activity begins to wane in intensity/coverage by
late afternoon. The Grand Traverse Bay area and points downstream in
particular stand to see the most activity, as well as portions of
eastern Upper. Surface temperatures holding nearly steady or falling
through the day will lead to morning rain showers quickly
transitioning to snow, especially in the interior higher elevations.
Slightly drier air near the surface would also promote snow due to
wet bulbing effects, as would the more vigorous/intense bands of
precip. Given the impressive lake-induced instability that will come
into play, may also see some graupel mix in at times. Minimal
accumulations of less than an inch expected, mainly downwind of GTB
on elevated/grassy surfaces. Activity will rapidly diminish Saturday
night as winds become NNW and moisture strips out from the column.

Winds will also be a concern over some of the Great Lakes on
Saturday. 925mb winds of 30-35 knots over the waters should not have
much difficulty mixing down at times over portions of Lake Michigan
and Lake Huron, but to what extent in magnitude and areal coverage
is still a bit in question. It will be a raw day over land, too,
with NW winds gusting to around 30 mph in some areas and temps
falling through the 30s.

Temperatures will gradually moderate heading into Sunday and Monday
as highs climb back into the 40s and eventually some low 50s.
Partial sunshine expected both days as well.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

A quick moving shortwave trough will drop through the region Monday
night into Tuesday, with some lake enhancement possible as
temperatures cool behind a departing cold front. Precipitation
amounts look light for northern Michigan with this system. A
Canadian surface high then slides overhead through the second half
of the week, providing a stretch of quiet, seasonable weather
through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

...Showery Weather Continues...

Low pressure is over eastern Ontario with a cold front stretching
back through western Wisconsin. Showers and lowering MVFR CIGS
ahead of the front will continue to slide through lower Michigan
and eastern upper Michigan this afternoon into tonight. Behind the
front, colder air will spread back into northern Michigan bringing
another period lake effect rain showers changing to rain/snow
showers on Saturday.

Gusty SW winds this afternoon with winds veering northwest
tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 354 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018

Some gale force wind gusts will persist heading into the evening
hours. But, gustiness has not been as strong as anticipated.
Current gale warnings on Lakes Michigan and Huron run through this
evening, but we may be able to end those earlier.

Winds veer northwesterly overnight and Saturday with more gale
force gusts possible on Lake Michigan and Huron once again.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT Saturday night for
LHZ346>348.
GALE WARNING until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ345-349.
LM...GALE WARNING until midnight EDT tonight for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT Saturday night for
LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA


634
ACUS11 KWNS 162228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162228
NCZ000-SCZ000-170100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1587
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0528 PM CDT Tue Oct 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of NC/SC

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 162228Z - 170100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Strong/gusty winds may occur on an isolated basis through
the evening. Watch issuance is unlikely.

DISCUSSION...Glancing influence of large-scale ascent associated
with an upper-level jet over the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coupled with
modest low-level convergence along a stalled front should support
isolated to scattered convective development through the evening
across the southern half of NC and parts of SC. This generally
east-west oriented front will likely serve as a focus for
thunderstorms, with a couple attempts at convective initiation noted
recently near GSP in upstate SC. A meso-low noted on 22Z surface
analysis near FAY may also subtly enhance low-level convergence
along the front in southern NC.

Some cloud breaks to the south of the front have contributed to
temperatures in the low 80s at 2228Z. A moist-level airmass is also
present across the warm sector, with dewpoints generally in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Daytime heating and plentiful moisture are
supporting MLCAPE around 250-1000 J/kg, with poor mid-level lapse
rates limiting even greater destabilization. 40-50+ kt of
west-southwesterly mid-level flow is present across much of the
Carolinas, and a strengthening wind profile with height is
contributing to around 40-50 kt of effective bulk shear. Mid-level
rotation within thunderstorm updrafts will likely occur given this
degree of shear, and a couple transient supercells cannot be ruled
out. A small line segment or thunderstorm cluster will probably
consolidate along the front as it moves eastward through the
evening.

Even with nocturnal cooling commencing soon, already steepened
low-level lapse rates should encourage efficient momentum transfer
of convective downdrafts to the surface. Isolated strong/gusty winds
primarily capable of tree damage appear to be the main severe
threat, but very isolated hail may also occur. Regardless, the
thermodynamic environment will remain quite marginal, and watch
issuance is unlikely at this time.

..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 34358191 34878185 35328123 35558022 35557834 35157592
34857618 34577645 34587693 34367746 34007779 33817793
33837819 33767854 33437895 34358191