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215
FLUS43 KAPX 191617
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1117 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-201200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
1117 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



000
ACUS01 KWNS 191610
SWODY1
SPC AC 191609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1009 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginally severe thunderstorms may affect parts of
southwest Louisiana through early afternoon.

...Southwest LA...
A strong upper low moving across TX will continue to affect parts of
the western Gulf states with scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms. There is still a small opportunity for surface-based
convection this afternoon over southwest LA, where dewpoints will
rise into the lower 60s ahead of the primary cold front. If a storm
or two can intensify in this area, gusty winds could occur. The
threat should decrease by mid afternoon as the front moves through.

..Hart/Cook.. 12/19/2018

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 190618
SWODY2
SPC AC 190617

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 AM CST Wed Dec 19 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FLORIDA INTO
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from Florida into eastern North
Carolina Thursday.

...Southeastern US...

Very strong 12hr mid-level height falls are forecast to spread
across the northern Gulf basin Thursday as a 500mb speed max
intensifies to near 120kt and digs into the base of a pronounced
eastern US trough over the southern Gulf by 21/12z. In response to a
lead short-wave trough, a surface low is forecast to approach the FL
Big Bend region by early afternoon with a trailing cold front to
near the western FL Straits. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent
is expected to enhance frontal convection within a strongly sheared
environment. This low-latitude convection should encounter modestly
buoyant air mass as favorable trajectories across the Caribbean
should allow 70F surface dew points to advance ahead of the front
into the southern FL Peninsula. With time, deep south-southwesterly
flow is expected to force this air mass toward coastal NC; although
70F dew points will likely remain offshore through the period with a
more modified air mass likely inland.

Severe squall line is expected to develop along the front over the
Gulf of Mexico late day1 then progress across the FL Peninsula ahead
of the front as mid-tropospheric flow intensifies across this
region. There is some concern that a few supercells may evolve ahead
of the squall line but the primary storm mode should be linear.
Hail, wind, and a few tornadoes are possible with this activity.

During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will evolve over
the Carolinas into the Middle Atlantic. This will assist the
northward advance of a warm front inland ahead of the aforementioned
surface low that is expected to track across northern FL into
western NC during the evening hours. Very strong wind fields will
favor organized convection and there is increasing concern that
near-surface based supercells may evolve across eastern NC during
the overnight hours as the warm sector spreads north. Damaging winds
and a few tornadoes are possible.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight

..Darrow.. 12/19/2018

$$


788
NWUS53 KAPX 171746
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1246 PM EST MON DEC 17 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0512 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 E SAULT STE. MARIE 46.49N 84.30W
12/17/2018 M42 MPH CHIPPEWA MI BUOY

BUOY STATION LTRM4, 3 E SAULT STE. MARIE.

0418 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNW SAULT STE. MARIE 46.50N 84.37W
12/17/2018 M40 MPH CHIPPEWA MI BUOY

BUOY STATION SWPM4, 1 NNW SAULT STE. MARIE.

0417 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S SAULT STE. MARIE 46.47N 84.37W
12/17/2018 M41 MPH CHIPPEWA MI ASOS

ASOS STATION ANJ, SAULT STE MARIE -
MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

0447 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 SSE RUDYARD 46.19N 84.56W
12/17/2018 M39 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

MESONET STATION MC009, 3 SE RUDYARD.

0615 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSW ROGERS CITY 45.41N 83.81W
12/17/2018 M35 MPH PRESQUE ISLE MI AWOS

AWOS STATION PZQ, ROGERS CITY - PRESQUE ISLE
COUNTY ARPT.

0617 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 WNW PRESQUE ISLE 45.33N 83.58W
12/17/2018 M34 MPH PRESQUE ISLE MI MESONET

MESONET STATION MC053, 5 WNW PRESQUE ISLE.

0507 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NW PELLSTON 45.57N 84.80W
12/17/2018 M39 MPH EMMET MI ASOS

ASOS STATION PLN, PELLSTON - RGNL AIRPORT OF
EMMET COUNTY.

0524 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 NNW MUNUSCONG 46.28N 84.21W
12/17/2018 M41 MPH LSZ322 MI BUOY

BUOY STATION WNEM4, 2 NNW MUNUSCONG.

0618 AM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.73W
12/17/2018 M36 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI BUOY

BUOY STATION MACM4, MACKINAW CITY.

0501 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SSE KINROSS 46.25N 84.47W
12/17/2018 M38 MPH CHIPPEWA MI AWOS

AWOS STATION CIU, KINROSS - CHIPPEWA COUNTY
INTERNATIONAL ARPT.

0433 AM NON-TSTM WND GST DAFTER 46.37N 84.43W
12/17/2018 M47 MPH CHIPPEWA MI MESONET

MESONET STATION MC041, DAFTER.

0600 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 11 N BAYVIEW CAMPGROUND 46.60N 84.80W
12/17/2018 M40 MPH LSZ321 MI BUOY

BUOY STATION WDH7560, 10 NNW BAYVIEW
CAMPGROUND.

0232 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 W BAYSHORE 45.36N 85.18W
12/17/2018 M40 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

MESONET STATION MC019, 3 W BAYSHORE.

0454 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNW BAY MILLS 46.48N 84.63W
12/17/2018 M47 MPH CHIPPEWA MI BUOY

BUOY STATION PTIM4, 4 NW BAY MILLS.

1010 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
12/17/2018 M36 MPH ALPENA MI BUOY

BUOY STATION APNM4, 1 SSW ALPENA.

0100 AM HIGH SUST WINDS 19 ENE ALPENA 45.20N 83.10W
12/17/2018 M36 MPH LHZ362 MI BUOY

BUOY STATION WUR8857, 18 ENE ALPENA.


&&

$$

SWR




504
FXUS63 KAPX 191602
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1102 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1057 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

Filtered sun continues under a broad area of high and mid level
clouds...running well ahead of developing central Plains
troughing. Warm air advection within deep southwest flow regime
helping temperatures rise, with current readings already well into
the 30s, and even a few lower 40s. This overall trend will
continue, although forced moisture convergence may help erode the
dry lower and mid levels some this afternoon, perhaps bringing a
few sprinkles/very light showers to primarily eastern upper
Michigan. With skin temperatures now above freezing, do not expect
any freezing rain concerns. Temperatures will continue to warm,
with much of the area topping 40 degrees as we head through this
afternoon.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 248 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

High impact weather potential: Minimal. Outside shot at a little
light freezing rain in portions of NE lower.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Early this morning, a weak mid level trough in the Central Plains
was connected to more of a closed circulation spinning in TX, while
somewhat shallow/broad ridging stretched from the Great Lakes down
into the SE states. Weak shortwave energy was ejecting into into nrn
Michigan and resulting in a fairly good amount of higher level
cloud. At the sfc, high pressure was over much of the eastern CONUS,
while low pressure was moving into Central Canada. In between,
including nrn Michigan, the pressure gradient was decently tight,
resulting in continued gusty winds up to 20 mph.

Not a lot of exciting things to talk about through tonight. Some
stronger shortwave energy from western Canada will drop into the
troughing in the Central Plains down into the more closed
circulation from TX. This sharpens the overall troughing, and we do
start to see sfc troughing and a cold front start to move closer to
the western Great Lakes late this afternoon through tonight. Mid and
higher level cloud will be thickening over this, and there is even a
suggestion of some possible low level cloud that arrives. However,
there is a decently sized dry pocket of air between 2-8kft, while
overall forcing will be on the weak side of things. There continues
to be the idea that the dry pocket of air can be overcome enough for
a chance of light precipitation. For most of the region, the thermal
situation is warm enough for the precipitation to be in the form of
light rain. That said, low temperatures tonight might threaten at or
just below freezing in portions of NE lower to result in light
freezing rain. Not confident in that scenario, as the expectation is
for a solid mid and upper level deck of clouds to keep temperatures
from getting that cold. Something to watch for though.

The pressure gradient stays fairly tight for gusts into the upper
teens to lower 20 mph range, despite minimal mixing in stable near
sfc conditions.

Highs today will be around 40F/lower 40s, while lows tonight in the
low to mid 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

...Rain/snow shower chances Thursday into Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Pops and precipitation type.

The complex storm system with dying energy passing by to our north
and deepening low pressure moving by to our south and east looks to
unfold Thursday into Friday. Northern Michigan is kind of left in
between both systems so will continue with chance pops for rain
showers Thursday morning with high end chance to low end likely pops
Thursday afternoon as models are in general agreement about a
moisture push moving up from the south. There is even a chance for
some wet snowflakes to mix in with any rain later Thursday
afternoon. Cooler air behind a surface cold front moving through
Thursday evening will lead to more chance pops for a mix of rain and
snow showers Thursday night and mainly just snow shower chances
Friday (especially eastern zones) as marginally colder air advects
in from the northwest. Am not expected much in the way of snow
accumulation (generally an inch or less).

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

...A couple of chances for light snow...

High Impact Weather Potential...None expected.

Cooler air Saturday will give way to colder air Sunday into early
next week as a cold front moves across the region Saturday night.
This is good news for anyone wishing for a white Christmas. So with
the cold air in place and a short wave moving across the region
Sunday and warm advection/over running Tuesday, there will be a
couple of chances for mainly light snow. Unfortunately, extended
models vary on the placement and timing of these two weak systems.
In addition, it`s seemingly cold enough for lake effect snow
showers, though winds appear light and moisture is somewhat lacking.
Although a white Christmas is not a slam dunk, at least there is
still a chance across a majority of the area. Temperatures look to
be near climatological averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 541 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

Low pressure crossing central Canada and high pressure over the
eastern CONUS has continued to result in a tight enough pressure
gradient for some lower end gusty S/SW winds, which may continue at
times through tonight. This low pressure and associated cold front
approach the western Great Lakes tonight, resulting in a small
chance for light rain.

More LLWS will be possible tonight, if sfc winds can decouple
enough.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 248 AM EST Wed Dec 19 2018

Low pressure crossing central Canada and high pressure over the
eastern CONUS has continued to result in a tight enough pressure
gradient for advisory level winds for much of Lakes Michigan and
Huron. The gradient will remain tight through tonight, before the
low pressure relaxes winds as it pushes through the nrn Great Lakes
Thursday into Thursday night, which will also result in increasing
chances for rain. Current advisories will hold through tonight. Cold
advection Thursday night will lead to the next round of marine
headlines.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Thursday for LHZ348-349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-
344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MSB
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD



000
ACUS11 KWNS 170704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170703
MEZ000-NHZ000-171300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1714
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0103 AM CST Mon Dec 17 2018

Areas affected...southern and eastern Maine

Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation

Valid 170703Z - 171300Z

SUMMARY...Snow, perhaps mixed with freezing rain or sleet, will
remain possible through the overnight hours.

DISCUSSION...Frontogenesis in the 850-700-millibar layer within the
warm-conveyor belt has resulted in a band of heavy precipitation
along the southeast coast of Maine. This band will continue to pivot
northwest through the overnight hours. In the vicinity of this band,
surface temperatures have fallen below 32F, despite RAP forecasts
suggesting temperatures would remain near or above 32F. Modifying
the RAP soundings for the observed colder surface temperatures, wet
snow is likely, but given the strength of the warm-air advection
within the warm-conveyor belt, temperatures within the
850-700-millibar layer may approach, or even exceed, 0C. As such,
precipitation may mix with, or change to, freezing rain or sleet
overnight.

..Marsh/Goss.. 12/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

LAT...LON 44197086 45246936 45826711 44936676 44246739 43256962
43007082 44197086