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149
FLUS43 KAPX 211958
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
358 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-222000-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
358 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A small chance remains for isolated thunderstorms across portions
of Northern Lower Michigan through this evening. Severe storms
are not expected.

A few gale force wind gusts are possible on northern Lake
Michigan and northern Lake Huron this evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible both Friday and Saturday afternoons.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



761
ACUS01 KWNS 212004
SWODY1
SPC AC 212003

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0303 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds and possibly a tornado are expected across
the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians vicinity mainly until
9 pm EDT.

...Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Wind probabilities have been trimmed from the west across portions
of WV/eastern OH/western PA, to account for ongoing convective
trends. Some redevelopment remains possible along the cold front
with a threat of isolated damaging wind, but the primary severe
threat is expected to be with the convective band approaching
central PA/eastern WV/western MD. The threat for a brief tornado or
two remains along and ahead of this band, and also further southeast
into portions of MD/northern VA along an outflow boundary (where 2%
tornado probs have been extended), though the primary risk is still
expected to be damaging wind.

...Utah/Colorado...
Minor adjustments have been made to the 5% wind probabilities across
portions of UT/CO, based on ongoing convective trends. Severe wind
gusts are expected to be the primary hazard in this region, though
at least small hail will also be possible with the strongest cores.

...South-central High Plains...
No changes have been made to this area, see the previous discussion
below for more information.

..Dean/Dial.. 08/21/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018/

...Lower Great Lakes to Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic States...
Cloud cover has been slow to thin early today, but modest cloud
breaks are noted at late morning across the upper Ohio Valley
roughly coincident with the upper dry slot. A shortwave trough over
the Midwest will continue to dampen as it moves east towards the
Lower Great Lakes while an upstream impulse over the
Upper Midwest accelerates east. A surface cyclone will track from
southern Lake Michigan into southern Ontario. However, convergence
along the lead cold front should remain modest as an upstream front
eventually overtakes this boundary early Wednesday.

Cloud cover and 12Z RAOB-observed weak mid-level lapse rates are
still expected to keep buoyancy modest overall, generally
characterized by MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg amidst upper 60s to lower
70s F boundary-layer dew points.

With a broad swath of 30-40 kt mid-level southwesterlies, scattered
storms should develop into organized clusters across the central
Appalachians and upper Ohio Valley. A few supercells may also be
favored in the western PA/northern WV/western MD region where
stronger low-level southerlies should overlap the northern extent of
the modest buoyancy plume with a risk for isolated severe gusts and
a tornado. Otherwise, strong gusts producing scattered tree damage
should be the primary hazard, especially with southeast extent where
weaker low-level winds are expected.

...Southern Appalachians toward the Gulf Coast...
While stronger forcing for ascent/vertical shear will be focused to
the north of the region, thinning cloud cover and a moist
environment (70s F dewpoints) will allow for pockets of moderate
destabilization this afternoon. A few downbursts capable of
localized wind damage may occur this afternoon/early evening with
the strongest storms.

...South-central High Plains...
It still appears there will be a semi-focused potential for a couple
of supercells along with a small multicell cluster with convection
that forms off the Sangre de Cristos and Raton Mesa vicinity and
moves eastward. A confined corridor of moderate buoyancy will
overlap the fringe of modest mid-level westerlies. Isolated large
hail and locally strong wind gusts will be possible late this
afternoon through early/mid-evening. The need for a small Slight
Risk upgrade will continue to be reevaluated through the afternoon.

...Parts of Utah/Colorado...
Some strong thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the
region. A semi-strong belt of mid-level westerlies coincident with a
relatively moist air mass and diurnal heating should allow for some
additional storm intensification along with a greater areal coverage
through the afternoon. While locally heavy rainfall may be the most
common concern, a few storms could produce severe-caliber downburst
winds and possibly small hail.

$$



000
ACUS02 KWNS 211724
SWODY2
SPC AC 211723

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NEW ENGLAND...THE COASTAL CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday across
portions of New England, the coastal Carolinas/southeast Virginia,
south-central High Plains, and Intermountain West.

...Synopsis...
A deep upper trough will be in place over much of the East on
Wednesday, as a series of embedded shortwaves move through portions
of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. A surface low will
move northeastward across Quebec as a trailing cold front sweeps
through much of the East. Further west, an upper trough will move
slowly eastward across the Intermountain West as a low-amplitude
ridge remains in place over the southern Plains.

...Southeast ID...Eastern UT...WY...Northwest CO...
Steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient moisture are expected to
result in MLCAPE values of 500-1500 J/kg by afternoon across
portions of the Intermountain West, depending on elevation and the
extent of diabatic heating that can occur. As the upper trough
begins to eject eastward, midlevel flow in the base of the trough is
expected to increase, resulting in a corresponding increase in
effective shear into the 35-45 kt range, sufficient for organized
storm structures including the potential for a few supercells and/or
bowing segments, capable of locally severe hail and wind. Severe
probabilities have been confined to western WY for now, though there
is some potential for the threat to spread across the state through
the evening as initial convective development spreads eastward.

...South-central High Plains...
Similar to Tuesday, moist upslope flow along the southern fringe of
stronger midlevel westerlies will support a focused area of severe
potential across the south-central High Plains. Moderate instability
and sufficient effective shear will support a couple of supercells
and/or bowing segments capable of hail and locally severe wind
gusts.

...Carolinas northward into New England...
Ample moisture will be in place ahead of the cold front on Wednesday
afternoon from the eastern Carolinas northeastward through the
Mid-Atlantic into portions of New England. However, widespread early
day cloudiness will tend to limit the potential for significant
destabilization, and updrafts will struggle to intensify within an
environment characterized by only modest low-level convergence and
weak midlevel lapse rates. The highest relative threat still appears
to be across two areas: portions of New England where convergence
along the cold front may be somewhat stronger in closer proximity to
the surface low, and across eastern VA/NC/SC, where warmer boundary
layer temperatures will support somewhat greater buoyancy. Effective
shear of 30-40 kt will support some modestly organized storm
structures with the strongest updrafts, with localized damaging
winds being the primary threat.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Dean/Dial.. 08/21/2018

$$


000
NWUS53 KAPX 212255
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
655 PM EDT TUE AUG 21 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0608 PM HEAVY RAIN CLEAR LAKE STATE PARK 45.15N 84.19W
08/21/2018 M1.06 INCH MONTMORENCY MI MESONET

MESONET RAWS STATION ATAM4, CLEAR LAKE STATE
PARK. 24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

JZ



754
FXUS63 KAPX 211952
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
352 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

...Diminishing Showers Tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Short-wave circulation continues to
swing through SE lower Michigan and the thumb with surface low
pressure center over far southern Ontario. Associated deformation
forcing is pivoting up and out of NE lower Michigan with the
widespread rainfall diminishing across that area.

Meanwhile, surface analysis reveals a N-S low level inverted
trough/convergence axis along the northwestern edge of the
departing low which. Along with some noted terrain enhancement,
has lead to a narrow band of showers from eastern upper down into
NW and north-central lower Michigan over the last number of
hours, and rescued some of our previous forecast rain amounts.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal at this juncture. Precip timing
tonight. Gusty winds and cloud cover

Deformation forcing will continue to pivot out of NE lower Michigan
heading into the evening with widespread rainfall diminishing.
Low level convergence axis also slides eastward across NE lower
Michigan and out into Lake Huron this evening, but will likely
continue to focus some additional showers across NE lower Michigan
through mid evening or so. But the overall trend will be for
diminishing PoPs as we go through the evening.

Colder low level air overspreads the region later this evening
into the overnight on gustier northerly winds. Likely to see
another period of low level cloud cover spread into the region
with cooler air (and possibly some spotty drizzle). But drier air
is still slated to build into the region later overnight into
Wednesday morning, thinning out cloud cover. Will see if we can
get some lake response toward morning as H8 temps fall to around
+8C (water temps running in the lower 20C range).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Possible lake induced showers/clouds
with CAA behind system.

General troughing will exist over the eastern third of the CONUS
early on Wednesday. At the surface a low pressure system pulls off
to the east away from Michigan, allowing our pressure gradient
weaken. This will lead to dying winds that will shift to have less
of a northerly component throughout the day. A cooler pocket of air
at 850 mb (5 to 7 C) will move across Michigan behind this system.
Given Lake Michigan surface temperatures near 23 C we could see some
lake induced clouds and showers Thursday morning in northwest lower
and parts of eastern upper. However, any potential rain showers will
be battling quickly drying air as surface high pressure moves into
the Ohio Valley through the day. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s
in the slightly cooler air behind the departing system. On Thursday
conditions dry out...shortwave ridging and the surface high to our
south will help temperatures warm up to near 80. As this high slides
slowly east it`ll give way to the next system moving out of the
northern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

The next system approaches the Great Lakes from the Northern Plains
early on Friday, and will produce rain chances from Friday through
the weekend. We move into a more active weather pattern heading into
next work week, as a series of systems move near and through the
upper Great Lakes. Highs rebound into the low and mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 100 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Stacked low pressure is moving quickly through SE lower Michigan
this afternoon. "Wrap-around" precip with this system continues to
pivot through NE lower Michigan bringing APN some steadier
rainfall. Secondary thin line of showers within a low level
convergence axis is swinging across NW lower MI.

Showers will pivot through northern lower Michigan through the
afternoon resulting in overall MVFR conditions at the terminal
sites. Cooler air overspreads the region behind the departing
low, likely with a reinforcing push of lower (MVFR) cloud cover
this evening. But drier air will build into the region overnight
and may return the terminal sites to VFR before morning.

Gusty northerly winds develop through the afternoon and persist
tonight. Gusts of around 25 knots anticipated. Winds will diminish
on Wednesday.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM EDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Northerly winds are in the process of increasing across the region
with gusts of 15 to 25 knots becoming common. That will be the
trend through the balance of the afternoon, with gustiness
persisting through tonight and into Wednesday. A few gale force
gusts remain a possibility on northern Lake Michigan over the next
several hours. But small craft advisory conditions will be the
rule for many nearshore areas tonight and into Wednesday.

Winds diminish by later Wednesday and will remain on the lighter
side through the rest of the week.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT through Wednesday afternoon for MIZ020-
025-031.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Wednesday for LHZ346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ348-349.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 PM EDT
Wednesday for LHZ347.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-342-
344>346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ341.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT
Wednesday for LSZ321.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA



919
ACUS11 KWNS 212307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212306
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-220030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1339
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0606 PM CDT Tue Aug 21 2018

Areas affected...southeast PA...the WV Panhandle...northern VA...and
parts of MD

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346...

Valid 212306Z - 220030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 346
continues.

SUMMARY...An isolated strong, locally damaging wind gust is
possible, mainly across far northern VA into northern MD the next
hour or so. Otherwise, severe threat is expected to quickly diminish
this evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection across the region has generally been
sub-severe late this afternoon and weakening is expected into the
evening hours. Some stronger cells were evident across northern MD,
likely tapping into a local maximum in instability and shear. Some
strong to damaging wind gusts will continue to be possible with this
bowing segment the next hour or so. However, poor lapse rates,
quickly decreasing low-level shear and loss of daytime heating
leading to an increasingly stabilizing boundary-layer will limit
persistence of near-severe level storms. Given expected trends, a
downstream watch is not expected.

..Leitman.. 08/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 39587904 39657828 39817796 40347766 40647736 40727681
40527577 39997558 39037607 38507693 38287823 38367922
38737949 39587904




283
WGUS53 KAPX 152227
FFWAPX
MIC135-160130-
/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0004.180815T2227Z-180816T0130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
627 PM EDT WED AUG 15 2018

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Oscoda County in northern Michigan...

* Until 930 PM EDT.

* At 626 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have
already fallen, centered on and just north of Red Oak. Flash
flooding is expected to begin shortly.

* Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Red Oak.

Additional rainfall amounts of around an inch are possible in the
warned area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4469 8437 4481 8437 4475 8416 4465 8416

$$

JZ