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987
FLUS43 KAPX 100753
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
253 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
111200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-5NM East of
Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National
Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-Grand Traverse Bay
south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point
to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac
Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand
Traverse Light MI-Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-Manistee to
Point Betsie MI-Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to
Point Iroquois MI-St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E.
Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-
Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand
Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-
Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
253 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



000
ACUS01 KWNS 101232
SWODY1
SPC AC 101230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United States
today.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
In the wake of a prior cold front passage, a large area of surface
high pressure and related stability will preclude any thunderstorms
across the central/eastern CONUS today. An upper trough will move
over the western states through the period, but very weak to
negligible instability suggests overall thunderstorm potential
remains less than 10%.

..Gleason.. 12/10/2018

$$


334
ACUS02 KWNS 100501
SWODY2
SPC AC 100500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 PM CST Sun Dec 09 2018

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S.
Tuesday through Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate amplification within a strong mid/upper
jet spanning much of the mid-latitude Pacific during this period.
As this occurs, it still appears that a significant short wave
impulse emerging from this regime will dig inland across the Pacific
Northwest coast by Tuesday night. This is forecast to be
accompanied by strong mid-level cooling (including a 500 mb cold
pool around/below -30C), which may contribute to sufficient boundary
layer destabilization for isolated to widely scattered weak
thunderstorm activity across coastal areas of Washington and
northern Oregon into the western slopes of the northern Cascades
Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, a southerly return flow may begin to develop off the
western Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coastal areas.
However, in the wake of ongoing cooling/drying, boundary layer
modification over the Gulf is not expected to be sufficient to
support appreciable low-level moistening and destabilization during
this period.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None

..Kerr.. 12/10/2018

$$



000
NWUS53 KAPX 080147
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
847 PM EST FRI DEC 7 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0846 PM SNOW INDIAN RIVER 45.42N 84.62W
12/07/2018 M6.3 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI TRAINED SPOTTER

12 HOUR TOTAL ENDING AT 830 PM.


&&

$$

AJS



000
FXUS63 KAPX 101525
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1025 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1024 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Morning surface analysis reveals high pressure still draped from
the Central Plains through the Midwest and Ohio Valley region.
Low pressure over western Ontario with a trough/stationary
boundary stretching from eastern Lake Superior down through Lake
Huron. Area of warm advection/QG-forcing for ascent and enhanced
cloud cover is spreading into the northwestern Great Lakes, although
nothing much is occurring with this system at the moment.

Meanwhile, lake induced stratus remains draped across much of
lower Michigan and parts of the U.P. But unlike yesterday, there
are thin spots opening up across NW lower Michigan, which gives me
some optimism that perhaps we can see some sun today.

Rest of today, with backing winds, further subtle low level warm
advection and given that we do have some holes in the stratus and
a foothold for "heating" and mixing...I remain optimistic that we
will continue to see a thinning trend to the cloud cover as we go
through the afternoon. So, that`s where I`ll trend the forecast
and keep my fingers crossed.

Otherwise, quiet conditions through the afternoon. Aforementioned
surface low over Ontario will be skirting down through far eastern
Lake Superior/southern Ontario tonight and into SE Ontario/Lake
Huron for Tuesday. Might see a little bit of light precip with
this system. I`ll be looking at that closer for the afternoon
forecast.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

...Overall quiet and mainly cloudy conditions persist thru tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Large area of strong high pressure
remains centered from the Rockies thru the Plains and into the Great
Lakes region early this morning. A stationary front remains poised
just north of the Great Lakes region attached to an area of moisture-
starved low pressure centered over North Central Canada. Closer to
home...a large area of low clouds is holding over much of Michigan.
Some clearing is trying to take place around the Leelanau Peninsula
and Grand Traverse Bay...but low clouds are quickly filling back in.
Temps are generally holding in the mid to upper 20s attm.

As we head into today and tonight...that area of low pressure will
slide SE to Lake Superior by early evening and will then stall over
the Northern Great Lakes region thru tonight. Again...this system is
rather moisture-starved and relatively weak. Primary impact of this
system will be the arrival of colder air that will accompany it.
Persistent but shallow low level moisture will deepen just a bit as
this system slides thru the region. Colder air will activate the
lakes...providing enough over-lake instability to produce scattered
light lake effect snow showers and possibly some patchy freezing
drizzle for the typical snowbelt areas late tonight. Expect this
light precip will have little to no impact for our CWA.

Otherwise... expect overall conditions will remain mostly cloudy
today and tonight across our entire CWA. SE sections of our CWA may
see some breaks in the clouds this afternoon. High temps this
afternoon will reach into the lower 30s. Low temps tonight will cool
back into the low to mid 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

..Remaining rather cloudy with snow shower chances...

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Cloud cover and light precipitation
chances.

A weak northern stream short wave will bring small chances for light
precipitation Tuesday. This should be mainly in the form of light
snow showers as model soundings show cold air/moisture deepening.
Not much going on Tuesday night then another weak trough moving in
from the west later Wednesday will bring another chance for a little
light snow. Highs in the lower and mid 30s and lows in the upper
teens to mid 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

...Maybe some snow or mixed rain and snow...

High Impact Weather Potential...None expected at this time.

Still no big changes expected with the arctic air remaining to our
north. This leaves northern Michigan generally in a zonal flow aloft
with a system or two to possibly contend with. Extended model
guidance is still not in very good agreement so confidence in the
details is on the low side. The first trough moves in from the west
late Wednesday into Wednesday night followed by another one moving
up from the south Thursday night into Friday. Thermal profiles are
marginal on precipitation type for both systems but precipitation
looks to fall mainly in the form of light snow. It then looks quiet
to start off the weekend with ridging aloft. A weak northern stream
trough will then bring chances for mainly snow showers heading into
Sunday. Temperatures will be slightly above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 601 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Cigs will remain MVFR/low VFR thru the 24 hr TAF forecast period
as shallow low level moisture hangs over the region. Aside from
some patchy early morning fog/MVFR vsbys...overall vsbys will be
VFR thru tonight. Surface winds will remain from the SW AOB 10
kts.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Dec 10 2018

Winds and waves will reach SCA criteria in most of our Lake Michigan
nearshore areas this afternoon and tonight in advance of low
pressure swinging thru the Northern Great Lakes. Skies will remain
mostly cloudy during the first part of the work week. Scattered
light lake effect snow showers and patchy freezing drizzle are
possible late tonight into Tuesday.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST
Tuesday for LMZ342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...MR
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MR


370
ACUS11 KWNS 091734
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091734
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-092230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1705
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1134 AM CST Sun Dec 09 2018

Areas affected...portions of northern NC into southern WV and
central/southern VA

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 091734Z - 092230Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue for a few more hours across parts
of northwest NC and the higher terrain of southern WV and and
western VA. Heavier snowfall also will continue to spread northeast
into parts of central VA into early evening. A mix of snow and
freezing rain and/or sleet also is possible across north-central NC
into south-central VA the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Expansive area of moderate to heavy snowfall continues
across parts of NC, WV and VA early this afternoon. The surface low
is currently located just offshore the SC coast, and will continue
to shift northeast near the NC coast through this evening. midlevel
moisture wrapping around the low level cyclone and forcing for
ascent ahead of the approaching shortwave trough (currently over the
TN Valley) will maintain wintry precip into the afternoon. A dry
slot noted in WV imagery will continue to stream across NC and into
eastern VA and some warming will occur over this area. As a result,
snow may mix with freezing rain and/or sleet at times across
north-central NC into south-central VA.

Otherwise, cold air damming with a well-established cold conveyor is
evident in observations across the Piedmont. Moderate to heavy snow
will persist in this regime across the higher terrain and spread
northeast into parts of central VA through the afternoon. Snowfall
rates will generally be around 1 inch per hour, though heavier
bursts approaching 2 inches per hour are possible. Precipitation
will gradually wane from southwest (across NC) to northeast (WV and
parts of VA) late this afternoon into this evening.

..Leitman.. 12/09/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

LAT...LON 35917922 35728036 35938125 36128151 36458188 36858190
37438177 37808142 38068060 38447893 38507830 38447756
38297706 38097673 37747670 37307681 37017694 36487754
35917922