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539
FLUS43 KAPX 240705
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
305 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-251200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
305 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



000
ACUS01 KWNS 241551
SWODY1
SPC AC 241550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1050 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Valid 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are possible across northwest Texas and
vicinity during the evening and overnight. Isolated strong-severe
storms also may occur today over parts of southeast Florida.

...FL...
A moist and moderately unstable air mass is present today over south
FL, where dewpoints in the 70s and strong heating will contribute to
afternoon MLCAPE values over 1500 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms
have begun to form along a weak front sagging into the area, with
development likely to spread across the southeast FL peninsula
through the afternoon. Low-level flow is weak/veered, but deep
layer shear is sufficiently strong for a few strong to severe cells.
Gusty winds and perhaps hail are the main threats.

...TX...
Southerly winds have drawn 50s dewpoints back into parts of
west-central TX, where afternoon MLCAPE values over 1000 J/kg are
expected. 12z CAM solutions are consistent in the development of a
cluster of thunderstorms this afternoon in the LBB/MAF vicinity,
spreading eastward toward ABI this evening. Forecast soundings
suggest sufficient effective shear for a few rotating cells capable
of hail, but a rather quick transition to linear mode is expected
due to limited moisture and strong downdrafts. Weak low-level wind
fields and isolated storm coverage limit confidence in a more robust
severe event, so will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk area.

...Eastern NC...
A large shield of precipitation persists across eastern NC today,
with little destabilization expected through the afternoon. While
an occasional embedded rotating storm is possible, the overall
severe risk appears low.

West of the precipitation shield, mid-level dry air is spreading
into east-central NC. A narrow corridor of marginal CAPE is
expected to develop in this region, but weak forcing, limited
convergence, and moist-adiabatic lapse rates suggest that updrafts
will we rather weak. Therefore have removed the MRGL risk from
these areas.

..Hart/Kerr.. 04/24/2018

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 241716
SWODY2
SPC AC 241716

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTH TX...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms may develop along the
lower/middle Rio Grande Valley region of south Texas.

...South TX...

Upper ridging is expected to maintain its position across the Great
Basin/northern Intermountain region through the day2 period. As a
result, strong short-wave trough will dig southeast across the
central Plains into the lower MS Valley by 26/12z. In the wake of
this feature, pressure rises across the high Plains will force a
pronounced cold front into extreme northern Mexico/south-central TX
by 18z...then into the lower Valley region by early evening. Latest
guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will be noted ahead
of the surging cold front. Inhibition should weaken such that
convection will develop along the front and across higher terrain
west of the international border. Although the primary
moisture/instability axis will extend west of the Rio Grande River,
forecast storm motion suggests strong storms may cross the border
into the lower Valley. Several thunderstorm clusters, or perhaps a
few supercells, will propagate south-southeast within deep
northwesterly flow regime and for these reasons have added 5% severe
probs to portions of south TX. If it becomes more clear that strong
convection will propagate farther east then 15% severe probs may be
added to the lower Valley.

...Middle Atlantic/Southern New England...

Strong low-level warm advection will spread across southern New
England early in the period ahead of ejecting upper trough. Modified
warm sector will struggle to advance inland but large-scale ascent
and weak elevated instability suggest some of the stronger
convection could generate a few lightning strikes.

..Darrow.. 04/24/2018

$$


000
FXUS63 KAPX 241431
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1031 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Lower levels are moistening up a bit quicker than previously
thought with dewpoints in the upper 30s to mid 40s over the
southern part of the CWA where light rain showers have begun.
Behind this first band of precip dewpoints are into the upper 40s
to low 50s. Hi-Res models still indicate the most likely rain
will be south and east of a line extending from APN to around CAD
where the deeper moisture and best forcing coincide.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Some showers today in northern lower MI...

High impact weather potential: none.

A southern stream upper low is over the TN Valley early this
morning, while a digging northern stream shortwave is near the
Manitoba/Ontario border. These features will interact over the next
24 hours. Deeper moisture around the southern upper low will get
drawn northward ahead of the northern stream wave, at least until it
moves into northern MI very late tonight. At the surface, a col is
in place over northern MI thru midday, before high pressure starts
to fold across Superior and produce n to ne winds. Precip trends are
the main concern.

Cirrus has already made a northward push into northern lower MI. 00Z
APX raob still had an impressive amount of dry air below 450mb,
leftover from the last several days. Though the 1st showers are
starting to edge into far southern lower MI, it will take some work
to erode the pre-existing dry present in the mid- and low-levels in
northern MI. That said, current showers are taking the form of
deformation-forced bands around the outer edge of the upper low, and
this appears unlikely to change. This allows mid-level forcing to
become stationary for a period in early/mid afternoon (before the
bands start to pull out to the east). And this allows forcing more
time to act locally and overcome dry low-level air.

Except initial showers to sneak into the Saginaw Bay region toward
mid-morning. Gradual nw-ward progress will occur thru 3-4 pm, when
the primary shower band backs up to about an McBain-APN axis. A few
showers could still pop up nw of this over nw lower MI. By sunset,
primary shower band will have retreated back into ne lower MI, and
it will exit northern MI shortly after midnight.

Some models (like the Nam) show an abundance of low level moisture
swinging in from the nne overnight. This feels a bit overaggressive,
and typical of the models after even a light QPF event. That said,
will add a mention of some drizzle very late tonight in parts of ne
lower MI, and will keep the overnight much cloudier east of I-75
than west.

Max temps mid 50s to lower 60s, warmest in nw lower MI (especially
south of TVC). Min temps tonight in the 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Lingering showers diminish Wednesday; Drier/mild Thursday...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Southern branch closed upper level low continues
to spin across the lower Mississippi Valley early this morning with
a well-defined, northern stream wave (and attendant cold front)
dropping southeastward across Manitoba, which is expected to cross
northern Michigan Tuesday night into Wednesday. Brief mid-level
ridging returns across the region Wednesday night into Thursday
before a more potent system digs southeastward from
Alberta/Saskatchewan...likely impacting northern Michigan during the
Thursday night - Friday time frame.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Lingering PoPs Wednesday.

A somewhat slower decrease in deep layer moisture is anticipated
across the forecast area on Wednesday than was progged 24 hours ago.
24/00z GFS continues to be by far the quickest with drying while
much of the remainder of the 00z suite of guidance continues
moisture and precipitation chances, at least east of I-75, into
Wednesday morning. Wouldn`t be surprised to see western locales
Wednesday morning under plenty of sunshine while areas east of I-75
remain under clouds with a few scattered lingering showers before
precip diminishes entirely across the forecast area by late morning-
early afternoon. Tuesday night/ Wednesday`s associated cold front is
expected to result in a return to below normal temperatures, at
least briefly, with Wednesday afternoon`s highs topping out in the
40s for most.

Lots of sunshine and mild temperatures return Thursday as mid-level
ridging prevails aloft and surface high pressure drifts across the
Midwest/western Great Lakes. High temps climbing back into the 50s
for most with perhaps a few low 60 degree readings across sections
of northern lower.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

A relatively sharp cold front will drop down from Canada to kick off
the start of the extended period...with passage in the Thursday
night through Friday time frame. The precip will likely be all
liquid...but this front is looking like it may drag down enough cold
air that a few snowflakes shouldn`t be ruled out...particularly
should the precip line up with the diurnal cycle and occur at night.

Moisture may linger into Saturday, but a drying trend should
commence and continue right through the end of the end of the
forecast period. A temporary dip to cooler than normal readings can
be expected at the start of the period on Friday...but temperatures
will moderate through the second half of the weekend, back to
near-normal by Sunday/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 654 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Some showers today. Potential for much lower cigs very late
tonight.

Low pressure will gradually intensify as it nears the Mid-Atlantic
states today. We will be on the far outer edge of this system,
with some showers gradually moving in from the se. APN has the
best chance of getting wet for part of the afternoon/evening. APN
likely to go MVFR for a period.

Northerly breezes will pick up tonight, and that could bring much
lower cigs. Again, APN has the best shot of a borderline MVFR/IFR
deck.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 303 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Winds will be light for the 1st half of the day, but as high
pressure starts to work in from the nw, n to ne winds will
increase this afternoon into tonight. Advisory-level winds/waves
are expected in some tonight, mainly on Lake MI (Lake Huron gets
in on the act toward morning on Wednesday).


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT
Wednesday for LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TL
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ


827
ACUS11 KWNS 240040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 240039
GAZ000-240145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0287
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Areas affected...north-central and east-central GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 240039Z - 240145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of transient supercells are possible for the next
1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar data over the past couple of hours has shown a
couple of storms intermittently showing weak rotation (i.e., weak
supercells). A sharp gradient in buoyancy is evident per the 00Z
Atlanta and Charleston, SC RAOBs with around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE to 100
J/kg, respectively along the warm frontal zone. Conversely, much
stronger low-level shear was evident at Charleston but considerably
weaker at KCLX VAD and the Atlanta RAOB. The overlapping area in
between Charleston and Atlanta is also where the storms have been
most prone to exhibit weak cyclonic rotation (also with sidelobe
contaminated velocities). The expectation for the next few hours is
the possibility for an isolated gust may continue but diminishing
boundary-layer instability will likely lead to a lowering
strong/severe risk.

..Smith/Thompson.. 04/24/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...FFC...

LAT...LON 32088224 32998369 33198407 33638401 33578317 33188239
32718169 32088224