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000
FLUS43 KAPX 260709
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
309 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-271200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
309 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across parts of northern
Michigan on Tuesday and again Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

JZ


000
ACUS01 KWNS 260526
SWODY1
SPC AC 260525

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts are
expected across parts of the Southeast on Thursday afternoon and
evening.

...Eastern Alabama/Georgia/South Carolina/Central North Carolina...
An upper-level trough will move across the Southeast today as a 55
to 65 kt mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. At the
surface, a low will move from the central Gulf Coast States into
Georgia as a cold front advances eastward across the region. A
corridor of weak low-level moisture with surface dewpoints mostly in
the lower to mid 50s F will be in place ahead of the front by
afternoon. Surface heating and increasing low-level convergence near
the surface low should result in convective initiation across
central and northern Alabama around midday. Convective coverage is
expected to increase with thunderstorms moving across central and
northern Georgia and into South Carolina this afternoon. Storms
should eventually reach central North Carolina this evening. RAP
forecast soundings at 00Z from Atlanta, GA to Columbia, SC show
surface dewpoints in the mid 50s F, MLCAPE around 500 J/kg and 0-6
km shear of 35 to 45 kt. This may be enough for a few marginally
severe multicells. The primary threats should be for hail and strong
wind gusts.

..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/26/2018

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 260643
SWODY2
SPC AC 260642

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 AM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OREGON INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO...

CORRECTED FOR OUTLOOK GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of downburst winds and some
hail may occur from parts of eastern Oregon into southwestern Idaho
later Friday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

Upper pattern is forecast to be characterized by a synoptic upper
trough over the eastern U.S., a ridge over the Intermountain West
and a closed upper low moving into the Pacific Northwest region
Friday. A significant shortwave trough located within the base of
the eastern U.S. synoptic trough will advance through the Gulf Coast
region. A cold front will move off the Atlantic Seaboard early in
the period with trailing portion continuing through FL. Farther west
a cold front will advance through the Pacific Northwest and Great
Basin regions.

...Eastern Oregon through southwest Idaho and northern Nevada...

Model consensus is that another in series of vorticity maxima will
rotate through the closed upper low circulation and into northwest
NV and central to eastern OR near peak heating. Steep lapse rates
and deeply mixed boundary layers will support marginal instability
with MLCAPE from 300-500 J/kg. The development of more numerous
high-based convection should occur in response to the ascent
accompanying the vorticity maximum being favorably timed with
maximum afternoon and evening destabilization. Some of this activity
could produce a few instances of downburst wind and hail through mid
evening.

...Central through southern Florida...

A gradual moistening will occur across south FL through Friday as
the Gulf boundary layer modifies and surface winds return to
southwesterly, though models have trended drier, suggesting more
limited prospects for thunderstorms. Nevertheless, modest
instability is expected in pre-frontal warm sector with MLCAPE below
1000 J/kg. Upper forcing will remain weak during the day promoting a
shallow frontal circulation, but at least a few showers and isolated
thunderstorms might occur especially along the east coast where
frontal convergence will be augmented by the seabreeze circulation.
An upstream shortwave trough will move through the Peninsula
overnight, but the forcing with this feature will remain in
post-frontal zone.

..Dial.. 04/26/2018

$$


000
FXUS63 KAPX 260642
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Warming up nicely today, ahead of a cold front tonight...

High impact weather potential: none.

Ridge of high pressure extends from the southern plains, up thru the
western lakes, across eastern upper MI, and on to just south of
James Bay. There is a tiny bit of of cirrus wafting overhead,
otherwise skies are clear. The early morning is a bit chilly,
with temps in the mid 20s to lower 30s. However, no significant
barriers are expected to strong diurnal heating today. 850mb warm
advection is actually already underway on nw flow aloft, and that
will continue as the ridge passes and low-level winds back to the
wsw. Max temps will spike nicely in response, with highs today
from mid 50s to mid 60s. Skies will become partly cloudy with time
today, as cirrus and mid clouds increase.

Tonight, a digging shortwave will slow as it pushes into Lake MI and
eastern Superior. That will drive a cold front fairly quickly across
northern MI in the 1st half of the night, before the front slows and
weak cyclogenesis proceeds over Lake Huron. Lots of pre-frontal dry
to contend with; good model agreement that clouds and some showers
will be primarily post-frontal. Not expecting anything to reach far
western Chip/Mack Cos thru 00z/8pm. However, sct showers will expand
into eastern upper and nw lower MI (nw of a Lake City-Rogers City
line) by 06z/2am. Overnight, sct showers spread into ne lower MI,
while a drying trend takes place in eastern upper and and Lake MI
coast of nw lower. QPF could exceed 0.10" locally, but most places
will see less (and again overall pops will not exceed sct). With
colder air spilling back in behind the front, back edge of the
shower band could turn over to snow (not enough to amount to
anything). Min temps mainly in the low/mid 30s, with some upper
30s near Saginaw Bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

...Shower threat ends, but remains cool...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Brief upper level ridging across Michigan on
Thursday will quickly be replaced by shortwave troughing as several
perturbations arrive out of Canada Thursday night through Friday.
The initial trough is progged to extend from near James Bay
southwestward through International Falls into the central
plains...becoming draped overhead Thursday night. At the same time,
a secondary wave is expected to be positioned further northwest
across Manitoba/western Ontario...set to reinforce troughing through
the day Friday. A cold front attendant to the initial wave is set to
progress across northern Michigan from NE to SE Thursday night into
early Friday morning, along with a scattered shower threat and a
return to below normal temperatures to wrap up the work week. The
secondary wave may spark a few additional showers, but its biggest
impact will be continuing below normal through at least Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Diminishing PoPs Friday.

By the start of the period Friday morning, a cold front is expected
to be positioned across the southeastern portion of the forecast
area with scattered showers trailing along and behind the front.
Expectation is that locations west of I-75 and across eastern upper
will likely be precip-free by sunrise Friday with lingering showers
limited to areas east of I-75 before shifting east of the forecast
area entirely by mid-late Friday morning. A lack of long-lived deep
layer moisture/forcing along the front should limit the overall
coverage and intensity of lingering showers with many hard-pressed
to see appreciable rainfall before the shower threat ends.

Aforementioned secondary wave arrives Friday evening, perhaps
accompanied by additional scattered shower activity, this time
primarily across far west/southwestern locales as the bulk of precip
is expected to remain across southeastern WI/southern Lake Michigan.
Any lingering precip chances come to an end by Saturday morning with
increasing sunshine becoming the rule.

Below normal temperatures expected throughout the forecast period
with high temperatures both Friday and Saturday ranging from the mid
40s to near 50 degrees area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Upper level troughing quickly shifts east of the area on Sunday
becoming replaced by pronounced ridging aloft through the start of
next week. Nearly all guidance suggests an expansive area of high
pressure drifting from the plains into the Great Lakes by Sunday
with dry weather, lots of sunshine, and above normal temperatures
returning to start next week. Next threat for precip holds off until
later Tuesday, and more so Wednesday...perhaps even the first
springtime convection as a tap to Gulf of Mexico moisture opens
ahead of a system moving across the heart of the CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions expected under just a few passing high clouds
through today. Lower cigs arrive this evening, but look to remain
in VFR category. Light winds expected through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

Ongoing light nw winds will back sw-erly today and pick up by
afternoon. However, winds/waves should remain below advisory
criteria. A cold front goes thru tonight, with winds veering nw,
but again staying light enough to preclude any advisories.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...JZ


014
ACUS11 KWNS 252025
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252024
TXZ000-252230-

Mesoscale Discussion 0289
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Areas affected...parts of south Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252024Z - 252230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A severe storm or two -- with potential to produce hail
and/or locally damaging winds. WW is not anticipated at this time
due to anticipated limited coverage of risk.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a cluster of thunderstorms near
and west of the SAT area, along a cold front moving steadily
southward across south Texas. Other, stronger cells are ongoing
well west of the Rio Grande over northeast Mexico -- where much
greater instability is observed.

With that said, the eastern extension of the axis of stronger
instability extends just across the river into Laredo/Cotulla area,
south of the ongoing storms. As the front advances southward into
this area, a couple of more vigorous storms may develop. While
shear remains somewhat modest across the area -- only marginally
supportive of mid-level rotation, some risk for hail and or damaging
winds may evolve locally late this afternoon and early evening.

..Goss/Hart.. 04/25/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...

LAT...LON 28340028 28790019 29679882 29549815 29049810 27539903
27269959 28340028