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FLUS43 KAPX 241913

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
313 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible Tuesday through Wednesday.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit


ACUS01 KWNS 242002
SPC AC 242001

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z


Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms capable of severe
gusts and large hail are expected from the south-central High Plains
eastward through Oklahoma and Arkansas and into central Kentucky and
middle Tennessee.

The notable change from the previous outlook`s probability forecast
is to reduce severe probabilities (hail, wind, tornado) and result
in a categorical Slight (2) Risk from southeast CO through the TX
Panhandle and into western OK. An ongoing severe MCS over central
OK is continuing to the east-southeast during the mid afternoon.
Extensive cold-air outflow from the MCS has permeated the TX
Panhandle into northeast NM and southeast CO. The 19Z AMA RAOB
sampled a boundary layer much less unstable than short-term model
guidance depicted (even the 18Z RAP model struggled substantially
with a difference in 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE noted for a 1-hr forecast).
Given the inability for both convection-allowing and deterministic
guidance to reasonably capture the pervasiveness of the reduction in
theta-e, have opted to heavily lean on observed surface and special
RAOB upper-air data for an environmental expectation for later this
afternoon/evening. Models continue to show thunderstorms developing
near the higher terrain later today and moving southeast into the TX
Panhandle. The steep 700-500 lapse rates sampled above the boundary
layer and supercell-wind profiles will support a large hail risk
along with the potential for severe gusts.

Elsewhere, left the forecast largely unchanged except to include
low-wind probabilities in Upstate SC.

..Smith.. 06/24/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018/

A midlevel trough over the central Rockies will continue to progress
east-southeastward over CO today, and the trough will reach western
NE/KS overnight. This synoptic wave is preceded by a series of MCVs
from overnight convection across KS/OK/MO/AR, and associated
convective outflows.

...Southern High Plains this afternoon through early tonight...
The outflow and stabilization appears likely to limit the severe
storm threat for areas north of the ongoing convection across
northwest OK, given the reduction in lapse rates aloft and low-level
moisture per surface observations and the 12z soundings from DDC and
LMN. The outflow associated with the ongoing storms continues to
surge southward across northwest OK and the TX Panhandle, and should
consolidate with the prior outflow from the weakening MCS now over
AR. This will tend to result in a southward shift of the main
severe threat area to where the outflow eventually stalls at the
triple point with the lee cyclone and dryline. An influx of 68-72 F
boundary-layer dewpoints along the residual southern outflow and
surface heating, beneath steep midlevel lapse rates noted in the 12z
AMA sounding, will drive strong buoyancy (MLCAPE in excess of 4000

The convective outflow has overspread almost all of southeast CO,
where widespread low clouds may tend to slow surface heating.
Still, sufficient destabilization is expected to support severe
storm development this afternoon as forcing for ascent overspreads
the area with the approach of the midlevel trough and a reinforcing
frontal surge from the north. The initial storms should be
supercells capable of producing large hail, though upscale growth
into another convective cluster is expected by this evening, with an
attendant threat for damaging winds. The convective cluster should
subsequently develop east-southeastward toward the northern TX
Panhandle and western OK along the lingering outflow and buoyancy
gradient from the ongoing storms. A separate area of storm
development will be possible at the outflow/dryline intersection
(probably near or just north of PVW), where strong surface heating
and deep mixing will reduce convective inhibition and drive strong
buoyancy. This area will be along the southern fringe of the
stronger mid-upper flow and will rely on backed low-level flow along
the outflow to support supercells. Very large hail and damaging
winds will be possible with any storms that form along the boundary,
and a couple of tornadoes could also occur in the zone of enhanced
low-level shear and moisture on the cool side of the boundary, once
it slows its southward movement this afternoon.

...Western TN and vicinity...
The MCS across AR should continue to weaken today, though a
resultant MCV will continue to drift eastward through the afternoon.
Some destabilization will occur along a weak outflow boundary
across western TN, and in advance of the remnants of the AR
convection. There will be some chance for redevelopment of
strong/severe storms with the MCV this afternoon, and damaging gusts
will be the main threat.

...Mid Atlantic and vicinity this afternoon...
Scattered thunderstorms will form in a moist environment and in
association with embedded speed maxima progressing eastward from the
OH Valley toward the northern Mid Atlantic and southern New England.
Though lapse rates will remain rather poor, moderately strong
midlevel flow could support a few storms capable of some downward
momentum transfer and isolated strong/damaging gusts.


ACUS02 KWNS 241717
SPC AC 241717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


A few severe thunderstorms are possible across Iowa, northern
Missouri and western Illinois on Monday.

A mid-level shortwave trough over the north-central High Plains
midday Sunday will evolve into a closed low and migrate east through
the middle MO Valley and into the Upper Midwest by daybreak Tuesday.
A belt of strong mid-level flow will move through the base of the
trough over the lower MO Valley. An occluded surface low is
forecast over eastern NE with a warm frontal zone draped east into
the middle MS Valley. A myriad of convective outflow will serve as
an effective front over eastern KS/OK.

Farther west, a disturbance will move into the Northern Rockies with
attendant mid-level height falls overspreading the northern High
Plains primarily from Monday evening into the overnight.

---A low-confidence/highly conditional forecast remains unchanged
from the previous outlook.--- Scattered storms are likely to be
ongoing throughout the day along the advancing warm front, from MO
into IA and IL. While this may reduce instability, the air mass
will be very moist, and low-level shear will be enhanced along the
warm front. If instability develops similar to some model
depictions, the threat for a few supercells may materialize.
However, this potential outcome is highly conditional and is
somewhat dependent on the evolution of convective outflow prior to
the Day2 period and the quality of moisture/destabilization along
the boundary Monday afternoon. Other thunderstorms are possible by
afternoon ahead of the weak low, from near the NE/IA border across
IA. Marginal hail and locally damaging wind will be possible as
well. The potential for widespread precipitation does decrease
predictability for this scenario, and areal adjustments in future
outlooks are possible.

...Lower OH Valley into the Carolinas...
Models indicate ongoing storms Monday morning across KY and TN as
westerly 850 mb winds maintain moist/warm advection. This activity
may persist or regenerate later in the day downstream toward the
Carolinas, tracking along the front. Locally damaging wind or hail
will be possible.

One forecast scenario, partially depicted in model guidance,
involves an MCV over the Ozarks midday Sunday moving east into NC by
mid afternoon Monday. Enhanced flow in the mid levels associated
with this feature may augment the risk for severe thunderstorms in
the form of damaging gusts. If this possibility becomes increasing
probable, higher severe probabilities may be introduced in later

Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Smith.. 06/24/2018


NWUS53 KAPX 241620

1220 PM EDT SUN JUN 24 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

1219 PM HEAVY RAIN AU GRES 44.04N 83.69W
06/24/2018 U1.50 INCH ARENAC MI PUBLIC




FXUS63 KAPX 241906

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
306 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...Drying out and cooling off tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Cold front that pushed through earlier
this morning now sits well downstate as strong surface high pressure
centered over Hudson Bay continues to build into northern Michigan.
A significantly drier airmass associated with this high will
continue to progressively filter into the area through tonight.
Until then, afternoon PWATs still range from 1.1 to 1.4" from north
to south across the APX forecast area. Filtered sunshine has yielded
marginal instability across interior northern Lower, generally south
of M-72. There`s also some weak low level convergence south of Grand
Traverse Bay and a weak lobe of mid level vorticity dropping through
our southern counties this afternoon. These ingredients will
continue to provide a chance for isolated showers through the
remainder of this afternoon south of M-72 and generally west of
I-75. Very low chance for a rumble of thunder or two.

Heading into tonight, rising heights aloft will lead to increasing
subsidence. PWATs will tumble, dropping below 0.5" by daybreak
Monday across our northern counties. This is expected to scour out
most remaining cloud cover from north to south, leading to an
efficient radiational cooling setup overnight as the surface high
builds overhead. Temperatures expected to drop into the mid 40s
across eastern Upper and interior northern Lower with low to mid 50s
elsewhere. Winds will become calm or very light, which could
conceivably allow for some patchy thin radiation fog, but thinking
the big drop in low level moisture will generally prevent that from
happening in most areas. Wouldn`t completely rule it out for areas
that saw some rain in the last 24 hours, however.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

...Quiet Monday then showers/thunder chances return...

High Impact Weather Potential: Possible thunder Tuesday/Wednesday.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure centered over the eastern
Great Lakes will provide a mostly clear and pleasant Monday. Clouds
will be on the increase once again Tuesday as a low pressure system
over the the central Great Plains brings our next chances of rain
Tuesday through Wednesday as it tracks through the northern Great
Lakes. Thunder chances will increase throughout the day Tuesday as
the warm front associated with the aforementioned low pressure
system provides some additional lift. Have thunder in the forecast,
but not too impressed with the bulk shear values (only in the realm
of 20-30kts still). Best chances will be during the late evening
into Wednesday as a southwesterly low-mid level jet forms ahead of
the cold front associated with said system, along with increasing
ingredients for thunderstorm development. Shower chances will remain
through Wednesday as wrap around moisture lingers on behind the
departing system. Do not expect any storms to become severe at this
time. Expect embedded thunder in widespread rain that could produce
heavier bouts of rain and possibly some wind gusts to 30-40mph.

Highs Monday through Wednesday will generally be in the 70s, while
lows will drop into the mid 40s to low 50s Tuesday morning and only
drop into the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Rain showers/thunder remaining on the backside of the departing
system will diminish Thursday morning and high pressure will begin
to build over the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure centered
over the Ohio River Valley along with a very strong (2-3 standard
deviations greater than the mean for this time of the year) 500mb
height...currently progged at 595 decameters. There is a strong
signal that this could very well set up northern Michigan for a very
hot and humid Friday through Sunday...reaching into the 90s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Clouds are beginning to slowly erode early this afternoon with
only a few lingering pockets of MVFR cigs, otherwise generally
VFR. Very small chance for a few pop up showers this afternoon
in the vicinity of TVC and MBL. Otherwise high pressure with a
drier airmass is slowly building into the region from the north,
which will eventually scour out most remaining clouds later this
evening. Winds will become light and variable overnight as the
high builds overhead, but low levels should dry out enough to
prevent ground fog development. Dry with few clouds on Monday and
light winds turning easterly.


Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Winds and waves are forecast to remain below SCA criteria through at
least Thursday. Widespread rain/thunder chances will return Tuesday
through Wednesday night/early Thursday morning as a low pressure
system tracks through the northern Great Lakes region.





ACUS11 KWNS 242154
SPC MCD 242153

Mesoscale Discussion 0863
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018

Areas affected...Southeast Tennessee...northeast Georgia...southwest
North Carolina through central South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 242153Z - 242330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered storms will remain capable of producing a
few strong to marginally severe wind gusts through early evening. At
this time, overall threat does not appear sufficient for a WW.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered storms continue developing from the TN
Valley into western SC in association with what appears to be a
couple of MCVs. The atmosphere has become moderately unstable in
this region with latest objective analysis indicating 2000 J/kg
MLCAPE, but with modest (6-6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates).
Temperatures have warmed into the low to mid 90s supporting steep
low-level lapse rates, and storms are embedded within a 20-30 kt
westerly flow regime. The environment will continue to support
multicell clusters developing east and southeast next few hours. The
stronger storms may produce locally strong to marginally severe wind
gusts through early evening before weakening as the surface layer

..Dial/Grams.. 06/24/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 35968436 35498228 34418047 33638023 33108079 33308200
34718440 35968436