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280
FLUS43 KAPX 162008
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
308 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-171200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
308 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

There is the potential for ice jams to develop on area rivers.
Flooding may occur upstream from any ice jams that develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is the potential for ice jams to develop on area rivers.
Flooding may occur upstream from any ice jams that develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snow amounts to the National
Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



000
ACUS01 KWNS 161950
SWODY1
SPC AC 161948

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0148 PM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Showers with occasional/embedded lightning will be possible from
portions of Oregon and California into the Great Basin today.
Showers and a few thunderstorms may also evolve late tonight over
parts of the Tennessee Valley area.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Gleason.. 02/16/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019/

...Discussion...
As an upper trough over the Northeast pivots northeastward
into/across the Canadian Maritimes, a second/large trough over the
western states will gradually expand with time, with cyclonic flow
to encompass the entire western and central U.S. by the end of the
period.

At the surface, a baroclinic zone will linger west-to-east from the
Southeast to the southern Plains. A frontal wave is progged to
shift eastward out of the southern Plains and into the
mid-Mississippi Valley region during the second half of the period,
with warm advection ahead of the wave, and a cold air surge into the
southern Plains in its wake.

Widespread showers, and occasional/embedded lightning in some areas,
is expected across a large portion of the western U.S. today, as
cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates reside across the area
within the broadening upper trough. The greatest lightning risk
appears to exist from portions of California and Oregon into the
Great Basin.

Late tonight, increasing low-level warm advection across the
mid-Mississippi/Tennessee Valley region should result in elevated
convective development, and possibly a few embedded thunderstorms.

No severe weather is expected.

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 161723
SWODY2
SPC AC 161722

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Sat Feb 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the contiguous United
States on Sunday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A large-scale, positively tilted upper trough will persist over much
of the CONUS on Sunday. A couple elevated thunderstorms may occur
early in the period across parts of the TN Valley into the
Appalachians as low-level warm air advection strengthens ahead of a
weak mid-level impulse moving northeastward from the mid MS Valley
into the OH Valley. Very weak instability will preclude a severe
threat across this region. Other thunderstorms may form along a
southeastward-moving cold front across parts of the Southeast
through the day, although coverage should remain isolated at best
due to negligible large-scale ascent with neutral to slightly rising
mid-level height tendencies. Farther west, very isolated lightning
strikes may occur across portions of coastal northern/central CA
with cold mid-level temperatures beneath an upper trough. The
prospect for thunderstorms farther east across the Great Basin and
lower CO River Valley currently appears too limited for a general
thunderstorm area.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None

..Gleason.. 02/16/2019

$$


772
NWUS53 KAPX 151437
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
937 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0800 AM SNOW HULBERT 46.35N 85.15W
02/15/2019 E11.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

CORRECTS PREVIOUS SNOW REPORT FROM HULBERT.

0800 AM SNOW PICKFORD 46.17N 84.36W
02/15/2019 M10.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC



0800 AM SNOW 3 E CEDARVILLE 45.99N 84.30W
02/15/2019 M8.7 INCH MACKINAC MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-MC-3, CEDARVILLE 3.2
ESE.

0800 AM SNOW DRUMMOND ISLAND 45.99N 83.70W
02/15/2019 M8.5 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SINCE THURSDAY MORNING.

0700 AM SNOW 1 SSE SAINT IGNACE 45.86N 84.72W
02/15/2019 M8.0 INCH MACKINAC MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-MC-4, SAINT IGNACE.

0726 AM SNOW RABER 46.11N 84.09W
02/15/2019 M8.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

0800 AM SNOW BARBEAU 46.29N 84.28W
02/15/2019 E8.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC



0800 AM SNOW KINROSS 46.27N 84.48W
02/15/2019 M8.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC



0800 AM SNOW HESSEL 46.01N 84.42W
02/15/2019 M8.0 INCH MACKINAC MI PUBLIC



0800 AM SNOW 1 WNW ALLENVILLE 45.99N 84.84W
02/15/2019 M7.7 INCH MACKINAC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION MRAM4, MORAN.

0800 AM SNOW 2 W SAULT STE. MARIE 46.49N 84.40W
02/15/2019 M7.5 INCH CHIPPEWA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION SSMM4, SAULT STE
MARIE.

0800 AM SNOW CHEBOYGAN 45.64N 84.47W
02/15/2019 M7.0 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI PUBLIC

UPDATE STORM TOTAL SINCE THURSDAY MORNING.

0550 AM SNOW 2 S PETOSKEY 45.34N 84.97W
02/15/2019 M5.0 INCH EMMET MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-EM-8, 2 S PETOSKEY.

0723 AM SNOW CHEBOYGAN 45.64N 84.47W
02/15/2019 M5.0 INCH CHEBOYGAN MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SINCE THURSDAY MORNING.

0727 AM SNOW TROUT LAKE 46.19N 85.02W
02/15/2019 M5.0 INCH CHIPPEWA MI PUBLIC

STORM TOTAL SINCE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

0800 AM SNOW CHARLEVOIX 45.32N 85.27W
02/15/2019 M5.0 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION CHRM4, CHARLEVOIX.

0815 AM SNOW ROGERS CITY 45.42N 83.81W
02/15/2019 M4.5 INCH PRESQUE ISLE MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-PI-1, ROGERS CITY.

0700 AM SNOW 1 NW WATERS 44.91N 84.72W
02/15/2019 M4.2 INCH OTSEGO MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION APXM4, 9 SSW GAYLORD.

0700 AM SNOW 1 N ENGADINE 46.13N 85.57W
02/15/2019 M4.0 INCH MACKINAC MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ENGM4, ENGADINE MDOT.

0700 AM SNOW 1 ENE HARBOR SPRINGS 45.43N 84.98W
02/15/2019 M4.0 INCH EMMET MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-EM-5, HARBOR SPRINGS.

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW EAST JORDAN 45.19N 85.15W
02/15/2019 M3.7 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-CX-7, 2 NNW EAST JORDAN.

0700 AM SNOW 2 NNW EAST JORDAN 45.19N 85.15W
02/15/2019 M3.7 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI CO-OP OBSERVER

CO-OP OBSERVER STATION EJNM4, 2 NNW EAST
JORDAN.

0800 AM SNOW 2 SSW WEST BRANCH 44.25N 84.25W
02/15/2019 M3.2 INCH OGEMAW MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-OG-6, 2 SSW WEST BRANCH.

0700 AM SNOW 2 SSW ALPENA 45.05N 83.45W
02/15/2019 M3.1 INCH ALPENA MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-AP-1, 1 SSW ALPENA.

0700 AM SNOW 1 WSW IRONTON 45.26N 85.22W
02/15/2019 M3.0 INCH CHARLEVOIX MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-CX-4, IRONTON.


&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 162300
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
600 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 247 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

...A well deserved break...

High impact weather potential: None

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Shortwave ridging building overhead early
this afternoon, with a much more impressive surface high pressure
doing the same. Attendant deep layer drying doing its best to scour
out some of the lake lake induced strato-cu and flurries, with
plenty of breaks in the overcast developing across eastern upper and
the interior of northern lower Michigan. Overhead airmass is of
Canadian origin, with current temperatures in the teens and lower
20s running several degrees below normal for this time of year.

Surface ridging looks to remain in control of our weather tonight,
keeping any precipitation tied to ejecting western shortwave trough
well off to our southwest.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud and temperature trends.

Details: As mentioned, high pressure remains in control of our
weather tonight. Guidance derived soundings and satellite analysis
show very dry conditions remaining through the mid levels, with any
moisture relegated to very shallow lake moisture contribution and
through the upper levels with slow approach of that western system.
Steadily veering flow through a very shallow convective layer likely
to bring in some Lake Huron induced strato-cu into northeast lower
Michigan by later tonight. Can`t completely rule out a few flurries
falling from this cloud deck as the top of the moist layer reaches
the dendritic growth layer. Definitely not a big deal for sure. High
clouds will be on the increase elsewhere, taking longest to reach
eastern upper Michigan. Above cloud trends make for one tricky
temperature forecast, with any amount of prolonged clearing letting
temperatures free-fall. Gonna play it a bit conservatively, keeping
coldest readings (a few degrees below zero) across eastern upper
Michigan. Expect temperatures around zero to the single digits
elsewhere. Guess its as good a starting point as any.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: High pressure nosing into northern
Michigan early Sunday morning will gradually be shunted northward
throughout the day by a developing surface low expected to lift into
the Ohio Valley. While the bulk of snow shower activity is expected
to remain downstate with this system, conditions continue to look
marginally supportive for light lake effect snow showers in east-
northeasterly flow off of Lake Huron. Slightly cooler air returns
aloft behind the aforementioned system for Monday, although limited
moisture should preclude much in the way of sensible weather.
Somewhat better chances for light lake effect return late Monday
night into Tuesday as boundary layer winds and moisture become more
favorable in conjunction with a weak mid-level perturbation expected
to be crossing the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Low PoPs Sunday through
Tuesday.

Sunday`s system is still expected to pass by well to our south,
although will gradually bring better moisture into our southern
counties during the afternoon and evening. Limited forcing across
northern Michigan should limit the overall snow shower/flurry
coverage and intensity as PoPs continue to be limited to along and
south of M-55...mainly driven by weak diffluence ahead of the wave
and weak low-mid level warm air advection. Certainly doesn`t look
like anything impactful. Only other snow shower concern for Sunday
will be lake effect potential off of Lake Huron as east-
northeasterly low-level flow prevails ahead of the approaching
system. H8 temps near -13 C over northern Lake Huron should be
sufficient to drive a few disorganized snow showers into parts of
northeast lower by mid-late morning, continuing into the afternoon
hours. Generally weak wind fields and inversion heights less than
3kft suggest nothing impactful before lake effect support begins to
erode Sunday evening.

By Sunday night, the upper-level support driving the system through
the Ohio Valley gradually shears out and becomes absorbed into larger
scale parent troughing. Behind it, a slightly cooler airmass will
sag into the region from the north...evident by H8 temps falling to
near -16 C by 18z/Monday. Generally weak wind fields and anemic
moisture should preclude much in the way of widespread lake effect
snow showers during the day Monday, although suppose given
sufficient over-lake instability that a few light snow
showers/flurries will be possible in north flow locales early Monday
and then in NW/WNW flow snow belts as winds gradually back west-
northwesterly by evening. Again, nothing robust or widespread and no
impacts are anticipated.

A slightly uptick in moisture Monday night into Tuesday should be
enough to warrant PoPs downwind of Lake Michigan/Superior, although
forecast soundings continue to suggest sub 4kft inversions with
limited synoptic support. Overall, will continue with the inherited
theme of increasing PoP trends across parts of eastern upper and NW
lower late Monday night into Tuesday, but again with limited impact
as any new snow should remain under an inch.

High temperatures through the period ranging from the upper teens
north to the low-mid 20s near the M-55 corridor. Overnight lows
expected to be in the single digits above zero to the low teens
Sunday night before turning even colder Monday night, especially
away from the lakes where temperatures may fall to a couple degrees
on either side of zero.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 247 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulation light snow possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Next potential for widespread accumulating light snow arrives
Wednesday as a developing area of low pressure ejects lee of the
Rockies and treks toward the Great Lakes. Being 5 days out, the
typical uncertainties still exist with respect to timing, storm
track and resultant accumulations. Weak lake effect snow chances
linger beyond this system at various times Thursday through the end
of the forecast period early next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 600 PM EST Sat Feb 16 2019

High pressure will hold over Michigan thru tonight...providing dry
wx...partly to mostly cloudy skies and cold temps. Low pressure
developing over the Northern Plains will push eastward into the
Midwest. Northern edge of the associated moisture shield will push
toward Northern Michigan on Sunday...resulting mainly in an
increase in low cloud cover. Light/variable winds tonight will
become E/NE AOB 10 kts on Sunday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...MR


000
ACUS11 KWNS 141850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141850
CAZ000-142045-

Mesoscale Discussion 0104
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 PM CST Thu Feb 14 2019

Areas affected...Central California - particularly within the San
Joaquin Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 141850Z - 142045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated/briefly severe convection may occur through the
afternoon across the discussion area. A WW issuance is currently
not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A band of relatively persistent convection has
developed across portions of Calaveras and Tuolumne Counties in
California over the past hour. Within the pre-convective
environment, sunshine has allowed for surface warming, with 60s F
surface temperatures and mid 50s F dewpoints boosting MUCAPE values
into the 500 J/kg range. Additionally, terrain-related backing of
low-level flow beneath strong southwesterly mid-level winds aloft
have boosted 0-3 km SRH values to around 225 m2/s2 (based on latest
VAD data at HNX). The CAPE/shear combination suggests some
potential for convection in the discussion area to briefly rotate,
which may result in a very isolated threat for wind damage and
perhaps a brief tornado through at least 00Z. This threat will be
too localized/marginal for a WW issuance, although trends will
continue to be monitored throughout the afternoon.

..Cook/Hart.. 02/14/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...STO...

LAT...LON 37932104 38282090 38532041 38251990 37511934 37011918
36891908 36511916 36281936 36241979 36412026 36832081
37642108 37932104