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000
FLUS43 KAPX 220629
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
229 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099-231000-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix-
229 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday night through Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 220546
SWODY1
SPC AC 220545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND FROM OK INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening
from Oklahoma eastward across the Ohio Valley and into parts of the
mid-Atlantic and New England. Meanwhile, hail or wind, occasionally
reaching severe levels, will also be possible over the central and
northern High Plains area.

...Synopsis...

A couple of upper level troughs and associated surface cold fronts
will result in a few areas of strong, occasionally severe storms
today. The first trough will pivot eastward from the upper Great
Lakes to the Northeast. A band of stronger southwesterly deep-layer
flow will overspread much of the northeastern U.S. from around PA
northward while a surface cold front shifts eastward. The western
extent of the front will drop more slowly south/southeast across the
Midwest, extending from southern MO toward Chesapeake Bay by Friday
morning. Several weak shortwave impulses and remnant MCVs will float
through westerly flow from OK to the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the
southward-sagging front, aiding in the development of sporadically
strong thunderstorm clusters. Further northwest, a shortwave trough
will migrate eastward across the northern Rockies. A surface cold
front will progress eastward across MT/WY during the afternoon and
evening, while a surface trough strengthens southeasterly low level
flow in a moist upslope flow regime across the northern High Plains.
This will focus another area for strong storm potential during the
afternoon and evening across parts of the northern and central High
Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic and New England...

A warm and very moist airmass will reside ahead of the surface cold
front. Overall, west/southwesterly flow will be rather modest, with
the strongest flow residing over the Northeast. A corridor of modest
destabilization will overlap with this relatively stronger flow, and
a few fast moving storm clusters or line segments are possible from
PA northward through coastal ME. A few strong wind gusts could
accompany this activity, though the overall threat should remain
limited by poor midlevel lapse rates and in the absence of stronger
shear. Further south toward the Chesapeake and VA/NC Piedmont
vicinity, thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop in vicinity
of a lee trough as subtle shortwave impulses migrate across the
Appalachians. The airmass across this area will be very moist with
PW values greater than 2 inches forecast. Strong heating will result
in moderate destabilization and some strong gusts in wet microbursts
will be possible.

...Oklahoma toward the Ohio Valley...

Deep-layer westerly flow will remain weak across the region.
However, several shortwave impulses are forecast to migrate through
westerly flow while a myriad of outflow boundaries and MCVs from
prior convection influence thunderstorm development during the
afternoon. Steep lapse rates and moderate instability will be
sufficient for severe storms, but weak flow will limit overall
organization. Nevertheless a few strong to severe storms are
possible with strong downburst winds being the main threat. Should
an adequate cold pool develop, very steep low level lapse rates
could support a surging cluster/bow with an increased threat for
damaging wind, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding
higher probabilities.

...Portions of the Northern/Central High Plains...

Strong southeasterly upslope flow in the vicinity of a pre-frontal
lee trough will bring upper 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints across
the High Plains of MT/WY/CO. Strong heating and very steep midlevel
lapse rates will result in 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. While
southeast flow through around 2 km will be strong, mid and
upper-level flow will remain rather weak. Nevertheless, as forcing
increases with the approach of a surface cold front and the upper
trough, scattered thunderstorms are expected. A deeply mixed
sub-cloud layer will support strong downburst winds, especially as
clusters/line segments are favored. However, very steep midlevel
lapse rates also will support some potential for hail initially. In
the absence of stronger shear, will maintain Marginal risk.

Further west across the higher terrain of south-central into
southwest MT, a couple of storms could produce gusty winds and hail
as the cold front moves through during the early afternoon.

..Leitman.. 08/22/2019

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 220502
SWODY2
SPC AC 220501

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA INTO NORTH CAROLINA...AND OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts are possible Friday over parts of North
Carolina and southern Virginia, with hail and localized strong gusts
possible over the northern and central High Plains.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will move across the Northeast with
around 30 kt midlevel winds trailing across the Mid Atlantic. A
front will drift southward across VA during the day, providing lift
for storms, some capable of wind damage, from VA into NC. The
westward extension of this front will move into Plains, with
southeast surface winds maintaining 60s F dewpoints into the High
Plains. A compact shortwave trough will move from WY into the
Dakotas, providing cool air aloft and maximizing instability for a
few strong to severe storms capable of hail.

...Southern VA into NC...
Areas of thunderstorms may be ongoing Friday morning from eastern KY
across WV and into western VA in association with lift near the
right entrance region of the upper jet. Preceding this activity,
heating of a moist air mass will lead to around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE,
allowing ongoing activity to strengthen during the day. New
development is also likely eastward along the front. While this
boundary will be parallel to the upper flow, a southeastward
propagation is expected as storms merge outflows, with locally
damaging winds possible in an otherwise weak shear environment.

...Northern and central High Plains...
Temperatures aloft will become cool for this time of year with the
weak upper trough. Shear will not increase much, but southeast
low-level winds will maintain ample moisture into eastern WY and CO,
with isolated strong storms likely by late afternoon forming near
the Front Range. Additional storms are likely over the Black Hills.
Storms are generally expected to move east, within a narrow
north-south corridor of hail or marginal wind threat with capping to
the east.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Jewell.. 08/22/2019

$$


354
NWUS53 KAPX 182328
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
728 PM EDT SUN AUG 18 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0509 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WSW IRONTON 45.26N 85.22W
08/18/2019 M41 MPH CHARLEVOIX MI MESONET

MESONET STATION DW7501 CHARLEVOIX.


&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 220713 CCA
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

...A taste of fall with a few rain showers...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight analysis reveals a fairly
deep parent mid level low sliding eastward through Ontario into
Quebec with suppressed heights down through the Great Lakes. A
couple of short-waves noted rotating around the parent low. One
moving quickly across SE Ontario. But a second more substantial
wave/trough is dropping through northern Minnesota along with an
area of more substantial cloud cover.

At the surface, a large expanse of high pressure extends from
central Canada into the Midwest and edging into the Great Lakes.
NW flow with this system continues to pull substantially cooler
air into the region. Core of fairly chilly air (+4C H8) is poised
just north of Lake Superior and will be descending into the
northern lakes region through today.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Cloud trends as well as shower
chances...today and tonight.

Band of thicker high cloud cover has been streaming across the
southern half of the forecast area through the night but getting
suppressed southward in time. So it does appear that most of the
forecast area will start the day with mainly sunny skies. But,
upstream short-wave trough and area of moisture/clouds will be
skirting down through the region later this morning and through
the afternoon. Coupled with increasingly cool air aloft/daytime
heating and modest background larger scale forcing, we will see a
decent increase in cloud cover later this morning and especially
this afternoon. In addition, some high-res guidance solutions
hint at the possibility of a few showers in parts of NE Lower
Michigan, particularly down toward Saginaw Bay where temperatures
will be warmest and there is a signal for stronger low level
convergence to develop. With that in mind, I have introduced some
low end (isolated) showers to that area this afternoon.

Tonight...we lose the diurnal component to the cloud cover this
evening and any showers as well. However, one more "wing" of
vorticity will slide down through northern Michigan as core of
cool air (+3C to +6C H8 temps) makes it`s final push down into the
region by Friday morning. Enough to produce lake clouds and
probably some light lake induced rain showers over portions of NW
and NE Lower Michigan on a northerly mean low level flow. Have
added that to the forecast as well.

Elsewhere, a chilly night is in store with many areas dropping
through the 40s and likely some upper 30s for the cold inland
locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: A mid-level trough axis, attendant to
vertically stacked low pressure east of James Bay, will cross the
forecast area early Friday followed by increasing heights aloft
Friday evening through the upcoming weekend. Only potential
wrinkle to the short term forecast period arrives during the day
Friday in the form of a weak/subtle shortwave expected to round
the base of aforementioned larger scale parent troughing. This
wave, combined with plenty of over-lake instability, may prove to
be enough to kick of a few isolated to widely scattered showers
across parts of the forecast area. Otherwise, below normal
temperatures rebound a bit for Saturday with high pressure
becoming settled directly overhead, ultimately leading to tranquil
sensible weather conditions.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Below normal temperatures,
along with isolated to scattered showers Friday?

As was alluded to above, Friday`s focus will revolve around a subtle
mid-level perturbation that`s expected to ripple overhead around
the periphery of larger scale troughing. H8 temps progged to
range between +4 to 5 C is expected to lead to plenty of over-lake
instability as delta Ts range from 15-17 C. This increased
instability, along with pockets of weak synoptic support, may
prove to be enough to kick off a few isolated showers during the
day Friday, primary east of Interstate 75 across northern lower
Michigan. Lesser chances west of 75 & across eastern upper. Not
expecting much in the way of QPF - maybe a couple hundredths in a
few locations? Otherwise, just some increased cloudiness at times
with high temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s
across the forecast area...some 5-10 degrees below late August
normals.

Mid-upper level heights begin to rise Friday night through Saturday
with little in the way of sensible weather expected as high pressure
becomes centered squarely overhead. Lots of sunshine is expected
with chilly Friday night lows ranging from near 40 in the coolest
spots to the low 50s near the coasts before rebounding to the mid
70s across northern Michigan for Saturday`s high temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Scattered thunderstorms possible
early next week.

Quiet weather continues across northern Michigan to wrap up the
weekend before a more active pattern sets up across the midsection
of the country next week. Moisture and instability will be
increasing across the region Monday into Tuesday with accompanying
scattered shower and storm chances arriving across parts of northern
Michigan as early as Monday afternoon, but more so Monday night
through Tuesday. Lots of uncertainty at this point regarding
detailed timing, shower/storm coverage and intensity details, but
from a pattern recognition standpoint, it looks like a set up
featuring high shear/low CAPE as the majority of instability remains
displaced well to our south. Worth monitoring the details through
the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Secondary piece of short-wave energy will rotate down through
northern Michigan today. Along with ongoing cold advection and
daytime heating, expect sct-bkn VFR cloud cover to develop across
the region through the day. Some northwest wind gustiness will
also return. Heading into tonight, with colder air aloft, lake
clouds and some rain showers are a good possibility off Lakes
Michigan and Huron through the night, mainly impacting APN and
TVC.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 AM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019

Gusty NW winds are diminishing, but still into small craft
territory across parts of northern Lake Huron. Plan to trim the
advisories for Whitefish and St. Marys River with the early
morning issuance, but leave the NE Lower Michigan coastline
headlines intact through 8 am (as scheduled).

Some gustiness will be found on the lakes through the day, but
winds and waves should remain below small craft criteria. No
marine headlines anticipated at this time for the balance of the
nearshore forecast.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ346>348.
LM...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BA
SHORT TERM...MG
LONG TERM...MG
AVIATION...BA
MARINE...BA


000
ACUS11 KWNS 220045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220044
MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-220245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1831
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

Areas affected...southeast Kansas...southwest Missouri and extreme
northern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 220044Z - 220245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated downburst winds and some hail will remain
possible next couple hours as storms develop through southeast
Kansas and southwest Missouri early this evening. Due to the
expected short duration of the threat, a WW will probably not be
needed.

DISCUSSION...Storms that initiated along a quasistationary front
across east central KS have recently undergone an intensity increase
with isolated wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH reported during the
past hour. Based on latest objective analysis, storms are
approaching a corridor of stronger instability in warm sector with
temperatures around 90F and low 70s F dewpoints supporting 3000+
MLCAPE. Recent VWP from Wichita KS indicate veering winds in the
lowest 2 km and 30-35 kt sfc-6 km shear. Storms will continue
developing southeast this evening, primarily along and north of
convectively reinforced front. The downstream environment should
support mostly multicells, but possibly a couple transient supercell
structures with isolated damaging wind and hail possible through
03Z.

..Dial/Grams.. 08/22/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 37799768 38119588 38629357 37999308 37129467 36909663
37159752 37799768