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257
FLUS43 KAPX 181915
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
315 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ016>018-020>036-
041-042-086>088-095>099-191200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix-
315 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will occur through mid evening in parts of
eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan. No severe storms will
occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There are chances for thunderstorms late Saturday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$

JZ



400
ACUS01 KWNS 181653
SWODY1
SPC AC 181652

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
central and southern Great Plains in multiple rounds this afternoon
through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Mid-Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast.

...Kansas...
An MCV will continue to drift generally eastward across
western/central Kansas through the afternoon and evening. A trend of
thinning/increasingly scattered cloud cover should occur through the
afternoon, aided by a modest MCV-peripheral dry slot. Expectations
are for more of a southeasterly low-level wind component to
materialize across central Kansas by mid/late afternoon, while
enhanced mid-level winds otherwise spread eastward across the
southern half of Kansas. Thunderstorms should initially intensify
across central/south-central Kansas by mid-afternoon, with moderate
buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear/modest overall forcing
likely being conducive for semi-discrete supercells, at least for a
few hours duration. A few tornadoes will be possible aside from
severe hail/wind as storms spread east-southeastward toward and
across the I-35/I-135 corridor through late afternoon and
early/mid-evening.

...Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle to west/southwest Texas...
Timing of the peak/most-certain severe risk is a bit questionable
across parts of this region, but the potential exists for a
sub-regional corridor to be impacted by multiple rounds of severe
thunderstorms. At the very least, a conditional severe/supercell
risk will exist as early as mid/late afternoon across the Texas
Panhandle/Low Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma within a very
unstable environment. However, modest convergence and a tendency for
mid-level warming casts some uncertainty. At the very least, storms
are likely to move into/across the region later this evening with an
appreciable damaging wind/hail risk via one or more well-organized
clusters.

Farther south, a couple supercells should form over the higher
terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos with a primary risk of large hail.
Minor mid-level height rises suggest robust MLCIN will hold east of
the Pecos River, limiting the spatial extent of this threat. A
separate area of thunderstorms may form near the intersection of the
dryline and residual outflow boundary trailing from the central
Texas MCS. A deeply mixed boundary layer should support a few
supercells that might organize into a cluster this evening. Large
hail and severe wind should be the primary threats.

...CO Front Range/south-central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the Raton Mesa and
other parts of Southeast Colorado by peak heating as a minor
mid-level impulse in Utah crosses the southern Rockies. Amid 30-40
kt 500-mb westerlies, this activity should spread east and impinge
on richer boundary-layer moisture in the Texas Panhandle this
evening. At least on an isolated basis, supercells capable of large
hail and possibly some tornado/damaging wind risk can be expected as
storms spread east/southeastward.

...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva...
An area of organized severe potential is apparent across southeast
PA, NJ, northern MD, and DE ahead of an MCV/weak surface cyclone
currently over western PA. Here, some enlargement to low-level
hodographs in conjunction with moderate boundary-layer heating of
low 70s dew points should support a risk for a few supercells
capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds/some hail. Refer to
Mesoscale Discussion 1115 for additional short-term details.

...Central Gulf Coast to Carolinas...
A belt of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly flow will persist amid
afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. This should again foster a
threat for mainly locally damaging wind as numerous multicells occur
through this afternoon.

...Montana/Northern High Plains...
Isolated strong to severe semi-low-topped thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon into evening within a modestly
moist/unstable environment ahead of an
amplifying/southeastward-moving mid-level shortwave trough.
Well-mixed boundary layers could yield severe-caliber wind gusts
along with some localized/marginal hail potential.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 06/18/2019

$$



116
ACUS02 KWNS 181726
SWODY2
SPC AC 181725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL
TX TO THE OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms may occur Wednesday from parts of
north-central Texas into the Tennessee Valley.

...TX to OH Valley...

Central Rockies short-wave trough is forecast to turn east-southeast
across the central High Plains during the day1 period. This feature
should aid significant convection that may grow upscale into an MCS
late Monday. Remnants of one or more MCS-type complexes will
propagate downstream...perhaps into AR by the start of the day2
period. This forecast is predicated on an organized MCV evolving
from this complex. If so, strong boundary-layer heating is expected
along leading edge of cloud canopy/precip shield, possibly from
southern AR into western TN. Increased buoyancy ahead of the MCV
should result in renewed thunderstorm development by early afternoon
within an increasingly sheared regime ahead of the aforementioned
short wave. Large hail/damaging winds can be expected with organized
convection under this scenario.

Upstream across the Arklatex into the DFW Metroplex, trailing wind
shift should provide the low-level convergence for convective
development by late afternoon. Forecast soundings across
north-central TX exhibit extreme SBCAPE with more than adequate
shear for supercells. As temperatures warm into the lower-mid 90s
inhibition should weaken such that thunderstorms evolve. Subsequent
movement would allow this activity to move southeast toward northern
LA, perhaps back building through the Metroplex. Very large hail may
accompany this activity due to the expected shear/lapse rates and
storm mode.

...Northern WY to Black Hills...

Strong mid-level jet will approach northern WY during the late
afternoon. High-level diffluence should encourage sustained
convection along the WY/MT border that should propagate toward the
Black Hills during the evening hours. With LLJ expected to increase
over western SD this activity may linger well into the overnight
hours.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 5% - Slight
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% SIG - Slight

..Darrow.. 06/18/2019

$$



445
NWUS53 KAPX 151716
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
116 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0116 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE ELMIRA 45.05N 84.79W
06/15/2019 E1.40 INCH OTSEGO MI PUBLIC




&&

$$

JSL




982
FXUS63 KAPX 181913
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
313 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...Few showers possible tonight...

High impact weather potential: Minimal. Low chances for non-severe
thunderstorms into early this evening.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Subtle mid level wave and just as weak
surface trough making slow progress east into the western Great
Lakes early this afternoon. While overall forcing is weak and
disjointed at best, there is enough that when combined with limited
diurnal instability trends and modest deep layer moisture advection,
is drumming up a few showers and thunderstorms across the region.
Most concentrated activity so far is found across central upper
Michigan where lake breeze interaction has given a boost to surface
trough convergence. Otherwise, some filtered sunshine is being
experienced between passing mid/high level clouds and a diurnally-
driven cu field. Temperatures not too far off from what is
considered normal, with current readings in the upper 60s to middle
70s.

Expect mid level wave to dampen further with time as it heads east
tonight, with attendant surface trough axis doing the same.
Lingering limited forcing interacting on a disjointed moisture plume
looks to be just enough to keep at least an isolated shower threat
overnight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges tonight: Cloud and temperature
trends and addressing small chances for showers.

Details: "Best" shower coverage expected this afternoon and early
evening, centering on eastern upper (a bit better mid level support
and lake augmented enhanced surface convergence) and across
northeast lower (more lake induced convergence). Few hundred joules
of mixed layer cape looks to be just enough to support a few
isolated thunderstorms. Meager lapse rates and very limited
effective shear (not to mention those low cape values) precludes any
severe potential. Downward spiral of any instability this evening
will end the more organized shower activity and any thunder threat.
Still cannot completely rule out an isolated very light
shower/sprinkle for the overnight, but much of the area and most of
the time will remain dry. Plenty of clouds will keep conditions a
bit more mild than experienced the previous few nights, with lows
ranging from the upper 40s to middle 50s by morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

...Some showers lingering into Wed night...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Flattish 500mb troffing remains over the region initially, thanks to
a stationary upper low over central Quebec. Various ripples rotating
thru the region will interact with diurnal heating to produce precip
chances on Wed. By Friday though, shortwave ridging will build into
the western lakes region, in advance of another upper low over MT.
This will produce drier and warmer wx late this week.

For Wednesday/Wed night, a weak bubble of high pressure will build
into western Superior. Anticyclonic flow and somewhat drier low-
level air will be in place over nw sections vs the se. This will
result in higher pops in the se. Will need a mention of isolated
sprinkles/showers in the morning in portions of northern lower MI.
Lapse rates are not particularly steep, but there are multiple moist
layers present aloft. Overall, the pattern is similar to this
morning, when we had a few marauding sprinkles/showers still hanging
around. By afternoon though, diurnal heating will contribute to
instability and amp up the shower threat somewhat. Substantial
instability will be found downstate and points south; even the
always-moist Nam keeps SbCape values below 300j/kg. But with
differential heating boundaries and lake breezes to work off of,
that should be enough to get sct showers going, mainly se of an MBL-
TVC-Cheboygan line. Meager instability makes thunder unlikely, and
SPC keeps general thunder south of MBS. So will not mention thunder.
Some showers will linger into evening se of a CAD-Rogers line, and
even overnight toward Saginaw Bay. Plenty of cloud cover south of M-
32, just partly cloudy north.

Max temps mainly within a few degrees of 70f. Min temps mid 40s
north (with less cloud cover) to mid 50s se (more clouds).

Looks quieter for Thu and Fri, as heights build aloft (especially
Friday), and surface high pressure builds east from the western
lakes. Layered clouds will continue to be relatively abundant in
the se half of the forecast area Thu morning (and would not rule out
some stray raindrops in the far se), but that will thin in the
afternoon and evening. Some diurnal cu to deal with (especially
Thu), but we are gently capped off by 3C air at 725mb/8k ft on Thu.
Convective debris will return to nw lower MI Fri afternoon. Max
temps will gradually rebound, near 70 to the mid 70s Thu (warmest
eastern upper), mainly 70s on Friday. The beaches will be cooler
each day due to lake breezes. Min temps mid 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

500mb ridging dead overhead Saturday corresponds with strengthening
low-level return flow. A deteriorating MCS may make a run at
northern MI by late Friday night into Saturday. That sets the table
for a period of unsettled wx. Shower chances arrives in nw lower MI
Fri evening, with the best chances for rain Sat and Sat night. Hard
to see a window for us to get strongly unstable during the period,
too much cloud cover. But thunder chances are reasonable late
Saturday thru Sunday. Model differences are pretty massive by Sunday
and early next week, with the ECMWF bringing organizing low pressure
across the region, while the GFS is quieter as a baroclinic zone
settles to our south. As a compromise, small chances for
showers/storms persist into early next week, until we gain some
clarity. Max temps mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 212 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

VFR conditions expected through this evening, with cigs trending
lower overnight into Wednesday morning, likely producing MVFR to
IFR conditions. May see some reduced visibility with fog/mist
development later tonight into early Wednesday. A few showers are
possible, but limited coverage warrants no more than vicinity
wording at this time...and only at KAPN.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

A loose pressure gradient will reside over the Great Lakes
through Wednesday with no wind/wave concerns, until winds do
increase some out of the east Wednesday night into Thursday, when
low pressure is expected to cross the Ohio river valley. Attm, no
advisory speeds expected for this as well. There will be a weak
surface trough that will slowly cross nrn Michigan into Wednesday,
that is expected to bring scattered showers (possibly isolated non-
severe thunderstorms into early this evening).

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB



000
ACUS11 KWNS 181923
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181922
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-182045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1120
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Areas affected...Southeast Colorado...Northeast New
Mexico...Southwest Kansas...the Oklahoma Panhandle...and far
northern Texas Panhandle.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 181922Z - 182045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected through the
afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible.

DISCUSSION...A combination of low-level upslope flow and terrain
induced circulation has led to convective development over the
higher terrain of the Colorado Front Range and the Baton Mesa.
Through the afternoon, these storms are expected to move off of the
higher terrain into the Plains. Currently, this area is only weakly
unstable (500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), but additional heating through
the afternoon will lead to more moderate instability ~1500 J/kg.
Effective shear around 30 knots will support isolated supercell
structures. Mid-level lapse rates are around 7.5-8 C/km (per RAP
mesoanalysis) which will support a threat for large hail (especially
initially when storm mode will be more discrete) before the threat
becomes more of a damaging wind threat as storms congeal.

..Bentley/Guyer.. 06/18/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38980542 39000457 38770305 38160196 38130087 38050026
37250017 36690041 36130108 35860178 35900262 35950438
36690513 38490552 38980542