Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

748

ACUS01 KWNS 011947

SWODY1

SPC AC 011946



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0246 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025



Valid 012000Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA....



...SUMMARY...

Lines and/or clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms are likely

to impact parts of the Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes, parts of

the lower Mississippi Valley, and the southern Great Plains through

tonight.



...20z...

The broad and rather nebulous severe threat continues across much of

the central and eastern CONUS. Damaging wind and marginally severe

hail potential will continue across parts of the OH Valley ahead of

the intensifying band of thunderstorms this afternoon/evening.

Trimming was done behind the line over the lower Great lakes and

Midwest, where limited forcing for ascent, less buoyancy and weaker

vertical shear are in place. While an isolated stronger storm

remains possible, the lack of greater storm organization should

curtail higher severe potential through the remainder of today.



Farther south across the Mid MS and TN Valley, isolated strong to

occasionally severe storms will remain possible over a broad area

this afternoon. The warm and moist air mass will support some risk

for occasional strong, water-loaded downdrafts with damaging gust

potential. However, the coverage of severe storms appears low and

the SLGT has been removed.



Otherwise, the severe risk remains largely unchanged over parts of

the Southern Plains. Isolated storms, including a few supercells,

are possible over parts of central TX with a risk for damaging winds

and hail. High-based convection ongoing over southeastern CO should

continue to gradually grow upscale into this evening over parts of

the TX/OK Panhandles. Damaging gusts and some hail are possible. By

late tonight, an increasingly strong southerly low-level jet will

support the development of additional storms ahead of this complex.

Merging cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of damaging

gusts, hail and isolated tornadoes overnight across parts of central

OK and the Red River valley.



..Lyons.. 05/01/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025/



...OH Valley...

Morning water vapor imagery shows a progressive and large shortwave

trough moving across parts of MO/IL.  Forcing ahead of this trough

will lead to scattered thunderstorm development over eastern IN and

central KY, with storms spreading northeastward through the

afternoon and early evening.  Forecast soundings show deep and

moderately strong southwest flow aloft.  This coupled with

sufficient CAPE will pose a threat of organized lines/clusters of

storms capable of damaging wind gusts.  Activity is expected to

spread into western NY/PA during the early evening before weakening.





...Central TX...

A weak surface boundary extends from west-central LA westward into

central TX this morning.  Strong heating and ample moisture

along/south of the boundary will yield max CAPE values over 4000

J/kg by late afternoon.  Most 12z CAM solutions indicate at least

isolated intense convection forming in this corridor.  Those storms

that form will pose a risk of very large hail and damaging winds.

Other intense storms may form off the high terrain of northern

Mexico and build into parts of central TX this evening.



...TX Panhandle into OK...

A combination of strong heating and upslope low-level winds into the

Raton mesa will aid in the development of a cluster of thunderstorms

over southeast CO this afternoon.  This activity will track

southeastward into a progressively more moist/unstable air mass over

the TX panhandle and western OK, where a few more intense storms are

expected.  Cells and bowing structures will pose a risk of large

hail and damaging winds.  By late tonight, other storms are expected

to form ahead of this complex, affecting parts of central OK with a

risk of large hail.



$$






                

                        

446

ACUS02 KWNS 011729

SWODY2

SPC AC 011727



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1227 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON

INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND

CENTRAL KENTUCKY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from central

Texas to middle Tennessee and central Kentucky Friday afternoon into

early Friday night.  Large hail and damaging winds are the main

threats.



...Synopsis...

Downstream from a ridge over the Great Basin, a shortwave trough now

amplifying over the northern High Plains will continue southeastward

across KS/OK/MO/AR on Friday.  A separate/lead shortwave trough will

eject quickly northeastward from the Great Lakes to the Saint

Lawrence Valley.  The lead shortwave trough will be associated with

a weak surface cyclone across southeast QC and a trailing cold front

into the lower Great Lakes.  Farther southwest, the surface pattern

will likely be modulated by the effects of overnight convection from

D1 that will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from north

TX and southern/eastern OK into western AR.



...Central TX to middle TN...

Differential heating and outflow from the early convection will

reinforce a baroclinic zone during the day from north/central TX

into central AR.  Surface heating/destabilization in advance of the

remnant morning convection should result in re-invigoration of the

convection by early afternoon across parts of the Mid-South and TN

Valley, where the storm environment will favor clusters/line

segments capable of producing occasional wind damage and large hail.





Strong surface heating will occur south of the morning convection in

TX where afternoon MLCAPE will likely exceed 2000 J/kg.  The eastern

extension of an EML, effective bulk shear of 30-40 kt and stronger

flow aloft will favor a mix of supercells and multicell clusters

capable of producing large hail (2 to 3 inches in diameter with the

more persistent supercells).  There will also be some increase in

the threat for wind damage as storms consolidate into one or more

larger clusters and continue moving southeastward toward the TX

coast and south central TX into Friday night.



...Southern Appalachians to eastern NY...

The ejecting/lead shortwave trough will provide a glancing influence

across NY during the afternoon, where a weakly unstable warm sector

is expected.  Though buoyancy will not be particularly large (MLCAPE

generally less than 1000 J/kg), some enhancement to midlevel flow

(up to 40 kt) and steepened low-level lapse rates in the afternoon

could support isolated wind damage with cell/small clusters.

Farther south, flow aloft will be weaker, though stronger surface

heating/larger buoyancy will compensate.  Storm coverage is expected

to remain widely scattered (more probable closer to the higher

terrain/Blue Ridge), but thermodynamic profiles will favor

sufficiently strong downdrafts for isolated wind damage.



..Thompson.. 05/01/2025



$$






                

                        

547

NWUS53 KAPX 301325

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

925 AM EDT Wed Apr 30 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0206 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSE East Tawas        44.25N 83.46W

04/29/2025  M55 MPH          Iosco              MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XTAW Tawas Point.



0214 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Dafter              46.37N 84.43W

04/29/2025  M55 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MC041 Dafter T26.



1155 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 S Cathro              45.07N 83.57W

04/29/2025  M54 MPH          Alpena             MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KAPN Alpena - Phelps Collins

            Field.



1246 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSE Barton City       44.66N 83.59W

04/29/2025  M53 MPH          Alcona             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station BCYM4 Barton City.



0143 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Sault Ste. Marie    46.47N 84.37W

04/29/2025  M53 MPH          Chippewa           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KANJ Sault Ste Marie -

            Municipal Airport.



0240 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SE East Tawas         44.25N 83.45W

04/29/2025  M51 MPH          Iosco              MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station TAWM4 2 SE East Tawas.



0306 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 NNW Munuscong         46.28N 84.21W

04/29/2025  M51 MPH          LSZ322             MI   Buoy



            Buoy station WNEM4 West Neebish Island, MI.



0422 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE Au Sable          44.41N 83.32W

04/29/2025  M50 MPH          LHZ349             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XOSC Oscoda Light.



1201 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Pellston          45.57N 84.80W

04/29/2025  M49 MPH          Emmet              MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KPLN Pellston - Rgnl Airport Of

            Emmet County.



0107 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SW Wurtsmith Airfield 44.45N 83.40W

04/29/2025  M49 MPH          Iosco              MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KOSC Oscoda - Wurtsmith AFB.



0342 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Sault Ste. Marie    46.49N 84.30W

04/29/2025  M49 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station LTRM4 Little Rapids, MI.



0240 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SE Alpena             45.06N 83.42W

04/29/2025  M49 MPH          LHZ348             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station APNM4 1 SE Alpena.



1057 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNW Grayling          44.68N 84.73W

04/29/2025  M48 MPH          Crawford           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KGOV Grayling - Army Airfield.



1257 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Charlevoix        45.30N 85.27W

04/29/2025  M48 MPH          Charlevoix         MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KCVX Charlevoix - Municipal

            Arpt.



0142 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Rogers City             45.42N 83.81W

04/29/2025  M48 MPH          Presque Isle       MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station CW4114 Rogers City.



0354 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNW Sault Ste. Marie  46.50N 84.37W

04/29/2025  M48 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station SWPM4 S.W. Pier, MI.



1153 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NNE Leland            45.02N 85.76W

04/29/2025  M48 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XLEL Leland Harbor.



1110 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 W Bates               44.76N 85.52W

04/29/2025  M47 MPH          Grand Traverse     MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MC112 Mdot Site.



1240 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NNE Otsego Lake State 44.96N 84.67W

04/29/2025  M47 MPH          Otsego             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MC062 I75nsmm2765-Bdws.



0237 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE Roscommon County  44.35N 84.67W

04/29/2025  M47 MPH          Roscommon          MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KHTL Houghton Lake - Roscommon

            County Airport.



0355 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SE West Branch        44.25N 84.18W

04/29/2025  M47 MPH          Ogemaw             MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KY31 West Branch.



1133 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Traverse City      44.73N 85.57W

04/29/2025  M46 MPH          Grand Traverse     MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KTVC Traverse City - Cherry

            Capital Airport.



1206 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst Mackinaw City           45.78N 84.73W

04/29/2025  M46 MPH          Cheboygan          MI   Buoy



            Buoy station MACM4 Mackinaw City, MI.



1213 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSE Petoskey          45.36N 84.95W

04/29/2025  M46 MPH          Emmet              MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station AS614 Petoskey.



1232 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Mio                 44.68N 84.13W

04/29/2025  M46 MPH          Oscoda             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MMOM4 Mio.



1100 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SE Greilickville      44.79N 85.63W

04/29/2025  M46 MPH          LMZ323             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XELM Elmwood Township

            Marina.



1140 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 NNE Northport         45.21N 85.55W

04/29/2025  M46 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GTLM4 6 NE Northport.



1112 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 W Beaver Island       45.70N 85.57W

04/29/2025  M45 MPH          Charlevoix         MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KSJX Beaver Island.



0200 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WNW Metz              45.30N 83.85W

04/29/2025  M45 MPH          Presque Isle       MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MIHAW 2.1 NW Metz (MAWN).



0231 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 S Sid Town            44.38N 83.60W

04/29/2025  M45 MPH          Iosco              MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station SCKM4 Silver Creek.



1255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Rogers City       45.40N 83.82W

04/29/2025  M44 MPH          Presque Isle       MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KPZQ Rogers City - Presque Isle

            County Arpt.



0335 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 WNW Cheboygan         45.65N 84.52W

04/29/2025  M44 MPH          Cheboygan          MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KSLH Cheboygan - Cheboygan

            County Arpt.



0348 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NNW Bay Mills         46.48N 84.63W

04/29/2025  M44 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station PTIM4 Point Iroquois, MI.



0100 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 11 ESE Goetzville       45.99N 83.90W

04/29/2025  M44 MPH          LSZ322             MI   Buoy



            Buoy station DTLM4 De Tour Village, MI.



1205 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Mackinac Island     45.85N 84.63W

04/29/2025  M44 MPH          LHZ345             MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KMCD Mackinac Island.



0100 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 SSW Petoskey          45.33N 84.99W

04/29/2025  M43 MPH          Emmet              MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MIPKY 3.6 SW Petoskey

            (MAWN).



0143 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSE Kinross           46.25N 84.47W

04/29/2025  M43 MPH          Chippewa           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KCIU Kinross - Chippewa County

            International Arpt.



0236 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSE Alpena            45.06N 83.43W

04/29/2025  M43 MPH          Alpena             MI   Buoy



            Buoy station LPNM4 Alpena, MI.



0300 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 W Vogel Center        44.19N 85.13W

04/29/2025  M43 MPH          Missaukee          MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MIMCB 3.7 W Vogel Center

            (MAWN).



1200 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NE Bingham            44.88N 85.68W

04/29/2025  M42 MPH          Leelanau           MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MINWM 0.8 NE Bingham (MAWN).



0408 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 E Clear Lake State Pa 45.15N 84.19W

04/29/2025  M42 MPH          Montmorency        MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station ATAM4 Atlanta.



1122 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Cadillac            44.27N 85.42W

04/29/2025  M41 MPH          Wexford            MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KCAD Cadillac - Wexford Count

            Arpt.



1136 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 S Suttons Bay         44.96N 85.65W

04/29/2025  M41 MPH          Leelanau           MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station FW9533 Suttons Bay.



0117 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 5 SSW P H Hoeft State P 45.40N 83.92W

04/29/2025  M41 MPH          Presque Isle       MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station AV695 Rogers City.



1145 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NE Luzerne            44.64N 84.24W

04/29/2025  M40 MPH          Oscoda             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station FW1723 Luzerne.



0130 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 12 ESE Alpena           45.03N 83.19W

04/29/2025  M40 MPH          Alpena             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station TBIM4 12 E Alpena.



0140 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NE Whitefish Point    46.76N 84.97W

04/29/2025  M40 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station WFPM4 Whitefish Point.



0220 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SW Alpena             45.05N 83.47W

04/29/2025  M40 MPH          Alpena             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GW0478 Alpena.



1145 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSE Indian River      45.40N 84.61W

04/29/2025  M39 MPH          Cheboygan          MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station DVI03746 Indian River.



0255 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 N Cedarville          46.00N 84.36W

04/29/2025  M39 MPH          Mackinac           MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MC072 M-134-W At Cedarville

            - La 16.9.





&&



$$












                

                        

626

FXUS63 KAPX 011846

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

246 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cool and dampish into Friday.



- Increasing temperatures Sunday into next week, generally.



- Showers chances possible early in the week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025



Pattern/synopsis: 1003mb low pressure is over southern Lake MI.

The system lifts slowly/steadily ne-ward, and will be just off

the APN coast at midnight. Though the low departs ne-ward from

there, troffing lingers back across northern lower MI, and over

parts of Superior. Though the initial shortwave aloft lifts ne

out of MI this evening, a couple of secondary pieces of energy

will swing east across the area into Friday.



Forecast: Widespread rain will continue to lift north, across

and out of far northern lower/eastern upper MI this evening/

early overnight. Lots of low-level moisture lingers behind,

along with some steepish mid-level lapse rates. Drizzle and

spotty showers are thus occurring in the "dry slot". Chances for

legit showers will diminish from s to n this evening in

northern lower MI, though some DZ is a possibility even after

that, in the moist low-levels with plenty of cyclonic

curvature.



After lifting just north of upper MI tonight, the primary rain

band will drift back south into eastern upper MI Friday. It`s

shoved along by upper troffing moving slowly eastward. By far

the highest pops in the area Friday will be north of the Bridge.

To the south, cool nw flow off of Lake MI will maintain DZ and

small shower chances into nw and n central lower MI Friday.

Generally plenty of cloud cover; MBL/Frankfort might see some

sun in the afternoon, as well as ne lower MI south of H`ville.



Low temps tonight within a few degrees of 40f. Highs Friday from

the mid 40s north to the mid 50s se.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 247 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Upper low begins to cut off Friday night into the weekend across the

Ohio Valley as anomalous high pressure builds across the Plains.

Looks fairly reasonable now that this upper low plays a role on our

weather next week as it lifts/drifts northward and shoots some

moisture/deformation northward early next week. Thus, at least some

shower chances will emerge in the forecast early next week, probably

favoring areas along/south of M-32 (?) but there`s still quite a bit

of volatility with this pattern overall. There could be a day in

there with much lower temps than currently forecast, but that cannot

be said with confidence at this point. There`s still a possibility

this upper low is suppressed more than currently shown, and thus the

shower chances remain south, and temps remain quite warm. Tough to

side with one of these two solutions at this point. Overall though,

temperatures will be warming in a comparative sense into the early

portions of next week.



Beyond that, we still have a large, anomalous ridge building across

the center portions of the country, with the potential for energy to

slide in the vicinity or to the north mid week. The strength and

depth of this feature will impact the temperatures and any

precipitation chances. Think this feature will slide well to the

north, like the GFS and new ECMWF. Honestly, the upcoming

atmospheric pattern is so chaotic in the mid-upper levels though its

hard to discern or draw conclusions in the 5 to 7 day range. That

being said, increasing heights should influence northern MI with

some mild to warm afternoons.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu May 1 2025



The most widespread rain will continue to move northward, across

and eventually out of northern MI. Some sporadic showers remain

possible behind this main band, both tonight and Fri morning.

Cigs will continue to lower, and IFR cigs will be most common by

late today into tonight. LIFR will be possible at times.



Breezy east winds become north tonight.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for

     LHZ345>347.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for LHZ348.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-

     342.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JZ

LONG TERM...JLD

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

487

ACUS11 KWNS 012023

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 012022

PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-012145-



Mesoscale Discussion 0634

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0322 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025



Areas affected...western MD/eastern WV Panhandles into south-central

PA



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 012022Z - 012145Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A single, slow-moving supercell may persist for the next

couple hours with a threat of large hail and localized damaging

winds. Confidence is low in greater coverage/longevity for a

potential severe thunderstorm watch.



DISCUSSION...A supercell centered on Allegany County, MD has had the

most impressive observational structure per radar/satellite trends,

relative to other severe storms in the Upper OH Valley/Lower Great

Lakes region. This cell appears to be anchored near a slow-moving

warm front, likely ingesting a mesoscale ribbon of mid 60s surface

dew points southeastward along the WV/VA/MD border area. Given the

relatively confined region of this enhancement, with a substantially

drier air mass both to the northeast and south, the longevity of a

sustained supercell structure is questionable. However, it is

plausible that a localized severe hail/wind threat may continue for

the next couple hours.



..Grams/Hart.. 05/01/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...



LAT...LON   40187889 40417839 40357799 40057745 39807752 39557809

            39517888 39707911 40187889



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN