Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

812

ACUS01 KWNS 040101

SWODY1

SPC AC 040100



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0800 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026



Valid 040100Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING

ACROSS PART OF THE MID ATLANTIC INTO MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND ACROSS

PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong thunderstorm development, posing mainly a risk for

severe wind and hail, remains possible into the overnight hours

across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Upper Midwest into the Great

Lakes.



...01Z Update...



...Mid Atlantic...

A convectively generated or augmented mid-level perturbation

continues to migrate east-southeastward across the upper Ohio

Valley, toward the northern Mid Atlantic, along the southern fringe

of broadly cyclonic flow overspreading the Northeast.  This

continues to provide support for a clustering of stronger convective

development currently in a corridor across east central Ohio into

south central Pennsylvania.  Although this activity appears to have

waned some in intensity from earlier, updraft inflow emanating from

a more moist environment, along and south of a diffuse remnant

outflow boundary across the central Maryland through Delmarva

Peninsula vicinity, might reinvigorate activity later this evening

into the overnight hours.



...Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region...

Convective evolution into and through the overnight hours remains a

bit unclear.  An initial cluster of convection, supported by a short

wave impulse now progressing toward the Minnesota/Ontario border

vicinity and Lake Superior, is undergoing substantial weakening as

inflow becomes more stable to the cool side of a quasi-stationary

frontal zone, which roughly extends from the Red River Valley

through southern Great Lakes region.



Upstream, near the crest of building mid/upper ridging,

lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection is supporting scattered

renewed thunderstorm development across northwestern and west

central Minnesota.  Closer to the frontal zone, where the inflow

environment is characterized by moderate to strong instability,

there still appears potential for the evolution of a small

organizing cluster across the Brainerd MN vicinity through mid to

late evening.  As this progresses eastward, it is not clear that

this will be maintained overnight.  A strengthening southwesterly

low-level jet may focus additional upscale growing thunderstorm

development downstream, across parts of northeastern Wisconsin into

Lower Michigan, but, elevated to the cool side of the frontal zone,

it is not clear that the environment will support more than very

limited potential for severe hail and wind.



..Kerr.. 09/04/2026



$$






                

                        

039

ACUS02 KWNS 031657

SWODY2

SPC AC 031655



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1155 AM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF

THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...



...SUMMARY...

Widely scattered severe thunderstorms, mainly producing damaging

gusts, are expected across portions of the upper Ohio Valley into

the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday. More isolated severe storms

capable of severe winds and large hail may occur over parts of the

Midwest Friday afternoon into night.



...Synopsis...



A mid-level ridge over central North America will undergo

considerable amplification between troughs located over the western

CONUS and eastern Canada into the Northeast. Subtle disturbances

embedded within the broader-scale flow regime will focus

thunderstorm development, one of which will progress from the Great

Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic on Friday.



At the surface, a lee cyclone will develop over the northern High

Plains with an associated surface front stretching from the northern

Plains through the upper Midwest and Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic

coast. The specific location of that boundary by afternoon may be

affected by convective outflow associated with thunderstorm activity

tonight into Friday morning.





...Upper Ohio Valley to southern Mid-Atlantic...



There is good agreement across 12Z model guidance that thunderstorms

will be ongoing at 12Z Friday over portions of the Great Lakes ahead

of the mid-level disturbance mentioned above. A subset of those

storms may linger through the morning over the upper OH Valley with

an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.



By afternoon, daytime heating across the downstream air mass over

the southern Mid-Atlantic will combine with boundary-layer dewpoints

in the low/mid 70s to yield moderate instability with MLCAPE up to

2000-2500 J/kg. That destabilization process, in conjunction with

increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching

mid-level disturbance, will support intensification of any lingering

storms moving into the region from the northwest. Additional storms

are also possible along the effective surface front and lee trough.

The presence of 25-35 kt of west-northwest deep-layer shear will be

sufficient for episodic supercell and bowing structures with the

predominant hazard being damaging wind gusts into evening.



A modest areal expansion of the Slight Risk wind probabilities has

been applied to portions of the upper OH Valley given the scenario

described above.





...Midwest...



Owing to the proximity of the building mid-level ridge and resultant

capping for surface-based parcels, convective evolution remains

highly uncertain. The eastern extension of a steep mid-level lapse

rate plume will overlie lower/mid 70s dewpoints in the vicinity of

the surface front, supporting moderate to strong instability by

afternoon with MLCAPE of 3000-4000+ J/kg. The 12Z

convection-allowing and parameterized model guidance offers varying

scenarios with respect to the timing and location of storm

development from Friday afternoon through night. Deep-layer shear

will be weaker than previous days; however, the magnitude of

instability will be supportive of a conditional risk for large hail

and damaging winds with any surface-based storms that can develop.



Marginal Risk wind and hail probabilities will be maintained in this

forecast update due to the uncertainties mentioned above.



..Mead.. 09/03/2026



$$






                

                        

206

NWUS53 KAPX 032135

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

535 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0515 PM     Rain             1 SSW Manistee          44.23N 86.34W

09/03/2026  M3.63 Inch       Manistee           MI   Mesonet



            12 hour total. Mesonet station DW9113 Manistee.



0508 PM     Rain             4 S Empire              44.76N 86.06W

09/03/2026  M1.03 Inch       Benzie             MI   Mesonet



            12 hour total. Mesonet station SBDM4 Bear.



0453 PM     Rain             1 ESE Roscommon County  44.35N 84.67W

09/03/2026  M1.01 Inch       Roscommon          MI   ASOS



            12 hour total. ASOS station KHTL Houghton Lake -

            Roscommon County Airport.



0529 PM     Rain             1 SSW Lake Ann          44.71N 85.85W

09/03/2026  M0.99 Inch       Benzie             MI   Mesonet



            12 hour total. Mesonet station GW6471 LAKE ANN.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

212

FXUS63 KAPX 032336

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

736 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Shower/storm chances continue at various times through Friday

night. Locally heavy rain and a stronger storm or two possible.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 125 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Troughing progressing over the eastern

Great Lakes and southeast Canada will continue to slowly trek east

this afternoon through Friday. The associated ~1008 mb surface low

pressure centered over western Quebec will also weaken and follow

suit to the east through this time. Meanwhile, ridging will amplify

across the middle of the country late this week and hold through the

holiday weekend, building surface high pressure across Hudson

Bay/Ontario that will nose down into the Great Lakes by Saturday/

Sunday. Ridging may finally begin to fold overtop of the Great Lakes

region heading into the middle of next week as troughing works

across the west from the Pacific coast.



Forecast Details: Showers/storms continue to percolate across

southern reaches of the forecast area into mid-Michigan early

this afternoon. Not a ton of change to this through early

evening with the highest PoPs focused near and south of M-72.

While severe weather doesn`t appear to be a glaring threat,

suppose there`s enough support there for a low chance of a

stronger storm capable of producing gusty winds -- lining up

well with SPC`s latest D1 outlook. Primary concern continues to

be locally heavy rainfall. Areas that received 1-3.5"+ of rain

over the last several hours (far southwestern portions of the

CWA) will be most susceptible to potential localized flooding

concerns with any additional locally heavy downpours.



Expecting a break in shower/storm coverage mid-late evening, but

latest trends showing increased support for additional upstream

showers/storms to make inroads across parts of northern Michigan

tonight into Friday morning. While lots of uncertainty riddles this

time frame (partially hinging on how this afternoon/evening shake

out across the broader region), think that if precip is able to

survive into northern Michigan later tonight that`ll it`ll be

primary a locally heavy rain threat rather than a severe weather

threat. Probabilities for 1"+ of rain have increased over the last

several forecast cycles with even some low probabilities for 2"+

noted (these higher end chances maximized south of APX`s CWA).



While some shower/storm chances will linger Friday into Friday

evening, a general drying trend is anticipated heading into the

holiday weekend. Mostly sunny skies and largely precip-free

conditions anticipated Saturday - Monday with daily high

temperatures near to several degrees above early September normals.

Chances for a return to more active conditions look to hold off

until the Tuesday - Wednesday time frame next week.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 736 PM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026



No precip out there presently, but some patchy stratus is

bringing borderline MVFR/IFR cigs to nw lower MI, including TVC.

This should be a threat for a few more hours. Chance for

showers/TSRA will increase again tonight, especially late, and

especially for TVC/MBL. These sites have VCTS or TSRA mentioned

for a few hours. TVC/MBL/APN should all have periods of MVFR

cigs overnight into part of Friday. Light winds.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MJG

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

787

ACUS11 KWNS 040044

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 040044

MNZ000-040215-



Mesoscale Discussion 2225

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0744 PM CDT Thu Sep 03 2026



Areas affected...portions of west-central Minnesota



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 040044Z - 040215Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated supercells may pose a risk for all severe hazards

over the next 1-2 hours.



DISCUSSION...Two isolated supercells have recently developed in

close proximity to a surface low analyzed near the ND/SD/MN border.

While the northern supercell has since dissipated, recent HRRR/RRFS

solutions have captured this activity well and suggest that at least

an isolated supercell may persist east-southeastward over the next

1-2 hours before eventually weakening due to nocturnal low-level

stabilization. While the temporal aspect of this scenario remains

somewhat uncertain, a conditional risk for all severe hazards exists

in the short-term. Latest objective analysis depicts effective shear

of 50-60 kts overlapping an MLCAPE bullseye of 3500 J/kg as well as

steep low- and mid-level lapse rates, supportive of large to very

large hail (perhaps 2+ inches in diameter) and severe wind gusts.

Backed surface winds within the warm sector and modestly enhanced

low-level shear along a weak surface stationary/warm front will also

support the risk for perhaps a tornado. The overall severe risk is

expected to remain confined both spatially and temporally. Thus,

watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.



..Chalmers/Smith.. 09/04/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...



LAT...LON   46349604 46379579 46369507 46279467 46059441 45869440

            45739464 45759515 45879571 46059608 46239616 46349604



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN








                

                        

186

WGUS83 KAPX 031545

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1145 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026



MIC101-031845-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FA.Y.0044.260903T1545Z-260903T1845Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Manistee MI-

1145 AM EDT Thu Sep 3 2026



...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.



* WHERE...Southern Manistee County in northern Michigan...



* WHEN...Until 245 PM EDT.



* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 1145 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to

    thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin

    shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have

    fallen.

  - Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible over

    the area. This additional rain will result in minor flooding.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

    Manistee, Eastlake, Parkdale, Orchard Beach State Park, Wellston,

    Dublin and Star Crossing.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



&&



LAT...LON 4426 8634 4427 8633 4433 8629 4426 8591

      4416 8591 4417 8614 4418 8639 4421 8636

      4424 8635 4425 8635





$$



MJG