Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

183

ACUS01 KWNS 101631

SWODY1

SPC AC 101630



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1130 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026



Valid 101630Z - 111200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT

BASIN...AND WESTERN OREGON...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible

this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains

to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from

western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho,

and also across parts of north-central California.



...Southern High Plains/South-central Plains into the Ozarks...

Recent surface analysis places a low over the western TX Panhandle,

with a cold front extending east-northeastward from this low across

northwest and north-central OK, and far southeast KS, before

becoming oriented more northeastward across southern and central MO.

Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing in the vicinity of this

boundary, as well modest southeastward-progressing outflow, across

far southern KS and northern OK.



The cold front is forecast to trend more stationary throughout the

day as heights rise across the Plains and southerly low-level flow

persists across the southern Plains, with the outflow following this

trend as well. After 06Z, this stationary boundary will likely begin

shifting back northward into southern KS as warm front. Additional

thunderstorm development is possible amid low-level convergence near

both the stationary front and outflow as the airmass modestly

destabilizes this afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or

marginally severe hail is possible with the strongest storms, but

modest shear and buoyancy suggests most storms will be sub-severe.



Farther west, low-level convergence along a sharpening lee trough

may contribute to late afternoon thunderstorm development across the

southern High Plain, particularly northeast NM. High cloud bases and

steep low-level lapse rates support the potential for strong

downbursts with any deep/more persistent updrafts. Some interaction

with the western extent of the frontal zone is possible as well,

which could briefly enhance updrafts, contributing to a continued

potential for damaging gusts as well as isolated hail.



...North-central CA/western OR into the northern Great Basin...

Upper low currently centered just off the northern/central CA coast

is forecast to become more progressive and negatively tilted

throughout the day today. Mid-level moisture and ascent attendant to

this wave will support scattered thunderstorm development this

afternoon from central/northern CA and western OR into the northern

Great Basin and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft (i.e.

-20 deg C at 500 mb) and strong diurnal heating will result in steep

low/mid-level lapse rates and at least modest buoyancy across much

of the region.



A few areas (interior valley of central CA, Willamette Valley in OR,

and northern NV/southwest OR/southern ID) appear to have a slightly

higher potential for isolated strong to severe storms, largely a

result of more diurnal heating/higher afternoon temperatures.

Greater buoyancy combined with moderate/strong deep-layer shear will

support semi-organized cells/clusters, and perhaps even a few

supercells, may develop with an attendant threat of hail and

localized severe wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will be a bit weaker

across the interior valley of central CA but still sufficient for a

few organized storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local

terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and

possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado.



..Mosier/Squitieri.. 04/10/2026



$$






                

                        

770

ACUS02 KWNS 100523

SWODY2

SPC AC 100521



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST

NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be

possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on

Saturday.



...Southern/Central Plains...



Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday.

A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate

northeast through the period, along with several other lead

shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low

near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the

upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt

will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure

will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the

northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends

southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly

low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward

toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.



Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface

trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest

large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit

daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing

boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500

J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least

transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a

low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of

updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce

locally strong wind gusts.



Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the

central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during

the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate

capping will likely preclude much convective development within the

warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become

sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This

scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk.

Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of

eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally

strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.



...Central CA...



Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley

vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and

increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over

the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less

than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly

occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front

approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped

convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not

expected at this time.



...Great Basin vicinity...



Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during

the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves

over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel

lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well

mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic

profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could

support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears

limited.



..Leitman.. 04/10/2026



$$






                

                        

991

NWUS53 KAPX 101212

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

812 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0700 AM     Snow             3 WNW Fairview          44.74N 84.11W

04/10/2026  M3.0 Inch        Oscoda             MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-OD-4 Mio 5.6 NNE.





&&



$$












                

                        

281

FXUS63 KAPX 101044

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

644 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Rain and snow showers spread across Northern Michigan this morning.

Very light precipitation is expected north of the M-55 corridor.



-Warm weather builds this weekend into early next week

 accompanied by rounds of thunderstorms and heavy rain. Watching

 for increased potential of localized flooding.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 319 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026



Midlevel shortwave ridging continues to build today with its axis

centered over the American Rockies. Downstream heights will continue

to rise over the next several days, leading to a warmer Pacific air

mass influence across the Great Lakes Region. At the surface,

continued rain and snow showers driven by an established stationary

boundary bisecting Michigans Lower Peninsula will begin to depart

west this morning as high pressure centered over Wisconsin pushes

drier air into the CWA. While a few lingering rain showers remain

possible this afternoon, most areas will stay dry as subsidence

scours out moisture today and Saturday.



Conditions turn more active next week as 500mb troughing currently

over the Gulf of Alaska shifts and centers itself over the southwest

CONUS. This feature will influence the Midwest through the remainder

of the forecast period as embedded waves lift through the region,

delivering rounds of showers and storms beginning Sunday. Conditions

are favorable for heavy rain development and increasing concerns for

flooding across the CWA due to high QPF probabilities combined with

temperatures/dew points in the 60s causing rapid snowpack melting.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Rain and snow showers (today): The  majority of QPF associated with

this stationary boundary has already been observed overnight, but

the boundary will remain positioned over central Northern Lower this

morning. Only measurable precipitation is expected to remain south

of the M-72 corridor, with an additional tenth of an inch or less of

rainfall. High pressure building across the Midwest will quickly

start to influence the CWA today as model soundings depict moisture

quickly scouring aloft. The majority of the region will remain dry

this afternoon, but lingering low level moisture could produce one

or two showers favoring areas near Saginaw Bay.



Heavy rain and increasing flooding potential (next week): The main

focus over the next several day remains on the forecasted heavy rain

potential next week. Aforementioned shortwaves will lift across the

Midwest starting Sunday, with favorable dynamics to support

widespread precipitation. Highest QPF probabilities of over an inch

favor the Straits and Eastern Upper associated with the initial

stratiform precipitation, but strong convective-driven rainfall

across Northern Lower will deliver localized higher amounts. Latest

guidance depicts PWATs reaching climatological maximums for April,

profiles of long skinny CAPE, and deep warm cloud layers. Showers

this Sunday/Monday will have low cloud-layer shear, producing the

most QPF from single cells/clusters rather than from training

storms. Additional rounds of showers are expected through the

forecast period, especially Wednesday when another shortwave lifts

through the Great Lakes region. Multiple inches of total rain over

the course of a few days is likely. While this amount of rainfall is

typically not an issue for the CWA, the combination of high snow

water equivalent snowpack reports and expected rapid melting this

week will likely lead to high river levels and localized flooding.

Conditions will be monitored with future model runs and their

potential impacts to Northern Michigan.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 644 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026



Area of light mixed precip will soon move east of TVC/MBL and

eventually APN. Plenty of MVFR cigs expected today, but clouds

will thin heading into this evening, improving to VFR. A

light northerly breeze develops by afternoon.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...SJC

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

404

ACUS11 KWNS 100143

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 100142

MOZ000-KSZ000-100345-



Mesoscale Discussion 0372

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0842 PM CDT Thu Apr 09 2026



Areas affected...Portions of northeast Kansas



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98...



Valid 100142Z - 100345Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 98

continues.



SUMMARY...The potential for severe winds will likely increase over

the next few hours before diminishing later this evening.



DISCUSSION...A transition from semi-discrete supercells to

convective clusters is evident across northern KS in regional radar

imagery. MRMS data shows vertically integrated ice steadily

declining while velocity data from KTWS depicts a recent surge in

outflow from the leading supercells. Downstream VWP observations

show a steady increase in 0-2 km winds over the past hour as the

nocturnal jet begins to strengthen. This hints at increasing

isentropic ascent along the frontal boundary draped across northeast

KS, which will continue to support an uptick in thunderstorm

development in the coming hours. While severe hail will remain

possible in the short term, a transition to primarily a severe wind

threat is anticipated as thunderstorm coverage and cold pool

amalgamation increases - especially downstream from the most

organized cluster emerging over northern Riley/northwest

Pottawatomie counties. This activity will likely spread

east/southeastward along and north of the I-70 corridor towards the

KS/MO border. East and south of here, drier low-level conditions and

more meager buoyancy will likely limit the severe threat heading

into the overnight hours and mitigate the need for further watches.



..Moore.. 04/10/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...



LAT...LON   39469738 39589711 39809668 39859648 39879617 39789506

            39509498 39289513 38839586 38799617 38819643 39249743

            39369749 39469738



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN








                

                        

953

WGUS43 KAPX 040054

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

854 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026



...Forecast flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the

following rivers in Michigan...



  Manistee River near Sherman affecting Wexford County.



For the Manistee River...including Sherman...Moderate flooding is

forecast.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive

cars through flooded areas.



Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.



The next statement will be issued Saturday afternoon at noon EDT.



&&



MIC165-041600-

/O.CON.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-260407T1800Z/

/SHRM4.2.ER.260403T0220Z.260404T2137Z.260407T1200Z.NR/

854 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026



...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...



* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and moderate flooding is

  forecast. This approaches the flood of record.



* WHERE...Manistee River near Sherman.



* WHEN...Until early Tuesday afternoon.



* IMPACTS...At 16.0 feet, Flooding of property and homes adjacent to

  right bank of river along Ojibway Drive, Ottawa Drive, and

  Chippewa Drive 1 mile north of Sherman.  Flooding of N11 Road

  between W14 Road and W16 Road 1 mile northwest of Mesick.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 8:30 PM EDT Friday the stage was 15.6 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 14.0 feet.

  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours

    ending at 8:30 PM EDT Friday was 15.6 feet.

  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise to a crest of 16.1

    feet tomorrow afternoon. It will then fall below flood stage

    Tuesday morning.

  - Flood stage is 15.0 feet.

  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of

    16.0 feet on 03/18/1990.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4437 8573 4443 8577 4447 8564 4442 8561





$$



JPB






                

                        

355

WGUS83 KAPX 091955

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

355 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026



...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in

Michigan...



  Manistee River near Sherman affecting Wexford County.



MIC165-092100-

/O.CAN.KAPX.FL.W.0004.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/

/SHRM4.1.RS.260403T0220Z.260406T0330Z.000000T0000Z.NO/

355 PM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026



...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...



The Flood Warning is cancelled for

  the Manistee River near Sherman.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 3:30 PM EDT Thursday the stage was 14.6 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 14.0 feet.

  - Forecast...Minor flood stage is 15.0 feet. The river may rise

    back to near flood stage early Monday afternoon. Additional

    rises are possible thereafter.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4437 8573 4443 8577 4447 8564 4442 8561





$$