591

ACUS01 KWNS 230519

SWODY1

SPC AC 230518



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1118 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not expected.



...Discussion...



Large-scale pattern does not appear particularly favorable for deep

convection capable of generating lightning during the day1 period.

While very weak buoyancy may exist near the southern New England

coast, as a deep cyclone ejects northeast toward Nova Scotia, the

prospect for lightning appears too low to warrant 10 percent thunder

today.



Another region where very weak elevated instability is expected to

support shallow convection is across northwest WA early in the

period. Short-wave ridging will quickly spread across this region

and thunderstorms are not anticipated.



..Darrow/Wendt.. 02/23/2026



$$






                

                        

363

ACUS02 KWNS 230623

SWODY2

SPC AC 230621



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1221 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026



Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not expected across the US on Tuesday.



... Discussion ...



Fast, broad northwest flow will be in place across much of the US

upper-levels on Tuesday. Embedded within this flow, a strong

shortwave trough will move from the Northern Plains into the Great

Lakes. At the surface, a low will skirt the central US-Canada

border, ending up north of the Great Lakes. Despite impressive

kinematics associated with this trough/cyclone, limited moisture and

instability should preclude thunderstorm development.



A secondary low will develop southward from eastern Colorado into

Northwest Texas, within a broad lee trough stretching from north of

Montana southward into central Texas. This low will begin drawing

Gulf moisture northward into the central US. However, the lack of

focused surface convergence/large-scale ascent should preclude

precipitation/thunderstorms from developing on Tuesday.



Across the West, a strong atmospheric river will take aim across

portions of the Pacific Northwest into northern California as an

extremely positively tilted trough moves into the Pacific Northwest.

Forecast soundings across the area denote nearly saturated, moist

adiabatic temperature/dewpoint profiles, which should inhibit

sufficient instability for thunderstorm development.



..Marsh.. 02/23/2026



$$






                

                        

705

NWUS53 KAPX 221332

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

832 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0800 AM     Snow             East Jordan             45.16N 85.13W

02/22/2026  M2.7 Inch        Charlevoix         MI   Trained Spotter









&&



$$












                

                        

850

FXUS63 KAPX 230748

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

248 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Seasonably cold temperatures build today through tonight.



-Clipper System Tracks through the Great Lakes region Tuesday

evening through Wednesday. Several inches of accumulating snow

remain possible.



-Overall quiet and mild weather expected the remainder of the week



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 247 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: Surface low pressure over the Ontario

Peninsula will break down, moving whatever energy remains into the

Nor`easter currently riding up the east coast. A weak frontal

boundary will continue to progress southward today, resulting in cP

air returning to the Great Lakes through the midweek. Conditions

remain quiet today through Tuesday morning as midlevel shortwave

ridging supports high pressure across the CWA. Chances of snowfall

return this Tuesday as an Alberta clipper tracks through Michigan.



Latest ensembles depict the midlevel jet maxima over the U.S.

breaking down into a split flow pattern, causing the baroclinic zone

to shift southward this Wednesday. This will support somewhat mild

surface pattern across the Great Lakes region through the remainder

of the week as waves of energy track over the Northwoods. Slight

chances of precip will remain in the forecast at times, but no large

scale or impactful weather is expected through the end of the week

(after Tuesday).



Primary Forecast Concerns:



-Seasonably cold temperatures build today through tonight... Cold

 air advection will continue to pull Canadian air from the

 north today behind a weak frontal boundary. As a result,

 widespread daily high temperatures will remain several degrees

 below climatological normal. The majority of the CWA can expect

 highs in the teens before dropping to the single digits/near

 zero overnight tonight. Latest high-res guidance depicts more

 cloud cover than yesterday`s forecast, meaning overnight lows

 will fall solely from cold air advection rather than

 radiational cooling processes.



-Clipper System Tracks through the Great Lakes region Tuesday

evening through Wednesday. Several inches of accumulating snow

remain possible... Latest guidance depicts a faster tracking system

which is pretty conducive of a run-of-the-mill clipper. Warm air

advection will produce a light line of snow moving across the CWA as

early as Tuesday morning, but widespread moderate to heavy snow

showers spread early Tuesday evening. The dynamics of this system

remain somewhat ideal, featuring a surge of moisture through the low

and midlevel`s, combined with decent midlevel lapse rates that could

drive convective precipitation. Highest probabilities of snowfall

remain between 3-6 inches for most locations north of M-72. However,

WAA-driven southerly wind gusts in the upper 20s (kts) may support

some lake enhancement along the northern portions of Lake Michigan

and Huron, pushing accumulations in the range of Winter Storm

Warning criteria. In particular along US-2 where it is susceptible

to heavy drifting and blowing snow.



-Overall quiet and mild weather expected the remainder of the

 week... Probabilities of precip remain low beyond Wednesday as

 the southerly shift of the baroclinic zone keeps energy south

 of Michigan. Long range guidance depicts another clipper riding

 across Canada north of Lake Superior, extending some scattered

 showers into the upper peninsula Friday night. Too early to

 depict impacts at this moment as mild low-level temperatures

 introduce concerns for some mixed precip, but moisture

 associated with this system remains relatively starved and will

 keep QPF low.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1136 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026



Still some lingering MVFR to IFR producing lake clouds and snow

showers early this morning. Cloud bases will rise/scatter out

and snows will end through this morning, leaving behind VFR

conditions across the area. Gusty north-northwest winds today

become light this evening.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...SJC

AVIATION...MSB






                

                        

291

ACUS11 KWNS 230545

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 230545

MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-231045-



Mesoscale Discussion 0116

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1145 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026



Areas affected...New York City Vicinity into southern New England



Concerning...Blizzard



Valid 230545Z - 231045Z



SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue from the NYC

Metro vicinity into southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2

inches per hour are likely with localized 2+ inches per hour

possible. Greater rates will spread north with time. Blizzard

conditions will also become more prevalent, particularly near the

coast.



DISCUSSION...Over the past 5 hours, the surface cyclone off the

Mid-Atlantic coast has deepened approximately 9 mb per objective

analysis. Bands of moderate to heavy snow continue to pivot into the

NYC metro vicinity as well as southern New England. Moderate snow

observations are beginning to occur into Massachusetts. As the upper

trough continues to intensify and become more negatively tilted, the

surface cyclone will deepen further into Monday morning. A long

duration of at least moderate snowfall can be expected. Closer to

4-7 AM EST, a zone of very favorable ascent is expected to set up

over southern New England. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are

likely along with the potential for localized 2+ inches per hour.

Greater snowfall rates will also gradually shift northward as the

system slowly lifts northeastward.



Beyond significant snowfall rates, surface winds have already begun

to increase from the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Current

observations show winds gusting into the mid 30s to low 40s kts in

Long Island. This trend should continue over the next several hours.

Blizzard conditions will remain more likely near the coast, but

inland areas will become increasingly impacted by strong winds and

reduced visibility later this morning.



..Wendt.. 02/23/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...



LAT...LON   40447378 40557434 40767470 41187464 41617431 41777408

            42057317 42257271 42327212 42307140 41997061 41757033

            41347048 40447378