Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

169

ACUS01 KWNS 140432

SWODY1

SPC AC 140431



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1031 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible across southeast Florida and the

Keys today.



...Synopsis...



A large-scale upper trough will deepen and pivot eastward over the

eastern half of the CONUS today. An embedded shortwave within the

base of the large-scale trough will move across the eastern Gulf and

FL today. This will provide large-scale ascent atop a stalled

frontal boundary across the southern FL Peninsula. Adequate moisture

will support modest buoyancy. However, lackluster lapse rates/warm

temperatures through the midlevels will preclude strong-storm

potential, though a few lightning flashes will be possible.



..Leitman/Lyons.. 01/14/2026



$$






                

                        

490

ACUS02 KWNS 140506

SWODY2

SPC AC 140504



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1104 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not forecast.



...South Florida...



Pronounced upper trough will dominate the eastern CONUS during the

upcoming day2 period. Latest model guidance suggests a strong

surface front will have advanced across all but the southern most

part of the FL Peninsula by 15/12z, then quickly surge offshore

around 18z. At this time it appears the prospect for deep

convection, capable of generating lightning, will be minimal as poor

lapse rates and westerly flow ahead of the front do not look

favorable for thunderstorms. Forecast soundings depict weakly

buoyant profiles that rapidly stabilize by mid morning across the

southern Peninsula. Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10

percent.



..Darrow.. 01/14/2026



$$






                

                        

470

NWUS53 KAPX 111631

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1131 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1000 AM     Snow             4 NNE Honor             44.72N 85.99W

01/11/2026  M11.8 Inch       Benzie             MI   Public



            Public report. Called office with picture

            varification. Location is elevated compared

            to the town of Honor leading to locally

            higher total.



1131 AM     Snow             Lake Ann                44.72N 85.84W

01/11/2026  M9.0 Inch        Benzie             MI   Public







1129 AM     Snow             3 S East Jordan         45.12N 85.13W

01/11/2026  M8.0 Inch        Charlevoix         MI   Trained Spotter







1000 AM     Snow             Wellston                44.22N 85.96W

01/11/2026  M7.0 Inch        Manistee           MI   Trained Spotter







1000 AM     Snow             Central Lake            45.07N 85.26W

01/11/2026  M7.0 Inch        Antrim             MI   Public









&&



$$












                

                        

334

FXUS63 KAPX 140456

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1156 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Turning sharply colder with lake snows tonight into Wednesday

  night.



- Below normal temperatures with periodic chances for lake

  enhanced snows through the remainder of the extended.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



NOAM long-wave amplification continues to evolve this afternoon...

featuring deepening eastern troughing downstream of burgeoning

western ridging. Northern Michigan under the influence of the

former, with embedded shortwave trough and attendant surface low

working rapidly east across the northern Great Lakes. Area of mostly

light mixed precipitation associated with this wave, with mostly

light snow across eastern upper Michigan, and rain at times mixed

with snow across northern lower. A fairly mild day, driven by gusty

southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front...with current

readings ranging through the 30s.



Low pressure will continue to work off to the east as overhead

mid/upper level troughing only deepens with time...helped along by

arrival of rather vigorous shortwave trough digging south out of

Canada on Wednesday. This will bring much colder weather and a

return to lake-driven snows across the Northwoods by later tonight

through Wednesday.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Focus on lake snow evolution and temperature trends (give

you a hint....downward) tonight and Wednesday.



Details:



Modified Arctic cold front set to drop steadily south across the

area tonight...introducing much colder weather to northern Michigan

for Wednesday. Still looking at a light rain/snow mix heading

through this evening with marginal surface based temperatures.

Passage of the front will quickly signal the development of lake

processes as inversion level temperatures drop into the teens below

zero by sunrise Wednesday. Convective boundary layer flow veers

rapidly with the passage of the front, with intial west flow

becoming northwest by morning...veering further to north-northwest

during Wednesday (due north across eastern Lake Superior). Best lake

parameters arrive after flow becomes more northerly within intense

cold air advection regime. As mentioned, expect lake snows to

develop quickly once cold air advection increases. Snow showers will

especially target those favored north-northwest flow areas later

tonight and Wednesday across northwest lower Michigan, with pattern

recognition highlighting areas near and southwest of Grand Traverse

Bay for most accumulations. Flow quickly becomes too northerly off

Lake Superior...punting best snows into central upper Michigan

(although this will set up a connection to those northwest lower

snow belt locations). Decent lake parameters for sure, with above H8

centered convective depth and good synoptic moisture above that

inversion level....with lift centered in the favored dendritic

growth zone. Probably looking at several inches of snow by sunset

Wednesday in those favored northwest lower Michigan areas mentioned

above....with just minor accumulations elsewhere. However, even

those areas seeing less snow will experience some travel

difficulties with freezing of any lingering water on road surfaces

and gusty winds producing localized areas of blowing/drifting snow.



Other big story will be those temperatures, with temperatures

Wednesday likely slowly falling through the day...reaching the

single digits and teens through the afternoon. Gusty winds, up and

over 30 mph at times, will only make it feel considerably colder

     with wind chill values in the single digits either side of zero.

While definitely cold, nothing too out of ordinary for the middle of

January across the Northwoods.



&&



.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 202 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Definitely a period of more typical mid-January northern Michigan

weather, with overhead troughing supplying a direct connection to

reinforcing shots of modified Arctic Air through the extended.

Passing waves within a very favorable over-water thermal structure

supports periods of lake enhanced snow at times...some of which

could be locally significant.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Temperature trends and snow evolution through the period.



Details:



Lake snows will steadily diminish Wednesday night as drying occurs

through the convective cloud depth and inversion levels fall. Pretty

good agreement next shortwave and weak surface refection arrives

out of Canada later Thursday night into the start of the weekend.

While overall synoptic moisture contribution is a bit limited and

disjointed, a still very favorable over-water thermal environment

should no doubt help develop lake snows. Trends support a southwest

lake enhanced event to kick off later Thursday night into Friday

morning, with flow veering with time Friday into Friday

night/Saturday. Probably looking at several inches of additional

snow in some of our favored lake areas later Thursday night into

early Saturday, with much lighter accumulations elsewhere.

Definitely more details to work out in the coming days, so please

continue to monitor future forecasts...especially if you have travel

plans to end this week.



Simply more of the same thereafter with additional relatively

moisture starved clipper-type systems to occassionally drop

southeast out of Canada right through the start of next week. Each

wave will bring a reinforcing shot of modified Arctic air as well as

additional lake enhanced snow concerns. Otherwise, not seeing any

real significant widespread winter storms to affect our region. As

one would expect given the above described pattern, temperatures

will remain below normal...especially Thursday and again Sunday

through Tuesday when several areas will not get out of the teens for

high temperatures. Lows will be mostly in the single digits and

teens, with some below zero readings likely Wednesday night and

again early next week if skies clear and winds can go light.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1155 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026



Mainly MVFR CIGs currently in place across northern Michigan are

expected to continue for most areas through the issuance period. A

mix of light rain and snow showers will transition to lake effect

snow late tonight into Wednesday. This will bring the potential for

drops to IFR/LIFR VSBYs across many sites into Wednesday evening --

especially MBL and TVC. Current west-northwest winds will turn to

north-northwest on Wednesday with sustained speeds around 15 kts and

gusts to 25-35 mph.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for

     MIZ018.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 7 AM EST

     Thursday for MIZ020-025-026-031-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ086.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LHZ345-346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for LHZ347>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ341.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342-

     344>346.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ322.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...MSB

LONG TERM...MSB

AVIATION...DJC






                

                        

004

ACUS11 KWNS 111519

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 111519

NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-112015-



Mesoscale Discussion 0021

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0919 AM CST Sun Jan 11 2026



Areas affected...Parts of southwestern/south-central

NY...western/central PA...and far northern WV and western MD



Concerning...Snow Squall



Valid 111519Z - 112015Z



SUMMARY...Periodic snow squalls with bursts of heavy snow and

visibility reductions to 1/4 to 1/2 mile will be possible into this

afternoon.



DISCUSSION...Preceding a robust midlevel trough and within the

left-exit region of a 90-100-kt midlevel jet, a secondary cold front

is tracking eastward across parts of western NY, western PA, and far

northern WV. Mosaic radar data indicates a few loosely organized

snow squalls along the wind shift -- some of which have been

associated with visibility reductions to 1/4 mile and gusty winds.

Through the afternoon, cold midlevel temperatures accompanying the

trough will steepen low-level lapse rates (generating weak low-level

instability) amid 30-40 kt of unidirectional west-southwesterly flow

in the lowest 2 km (per regional VWP). This will support the

development of periodic snow-squall conditions spreading eastward

into the afternoon.



Given the lack of a stronger cold front/low-level frontogenesis,

these squalls may tend to be transient and generally be associated

with visibility reductions of 1/2. However, 1/4 mile visibility and

strong gusts will be possible with the stronger squalls that evolve,

as seen by the Delevan NY State mesonet web cam in northeast

Cattaraugus County NY at 1500-1515Z.



..Weinman.. 01/11/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...



LAT...LON   40847957 41447933 42217883 42807830 43147773 43177729

            43067649 42787614 42277584 41707596 41407639 41237689

            40837756 39407859 39147924 39297985 39627990 40847957








                

                        

686

WGUS43 KAPX 110432

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1132 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026



MIC011-111630-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FA.W.0001.260111T0432Z-260111T1630Z/

/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Arenac MI-

1132 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026



...FLOOD WARNING FOR AN ICE JAM IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM EST SUNDAY...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by an ice jam is occurring.



* WHERE...A portion of northern Michigan, including the following

  county, Arenac...specifically along the Rifle River, downstream

  from Melita Rd.



* WHEN...Until 1130 AM EST Sunday.



* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying

  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Depending on

  ice behavior, any release of the ice jam could result in sudden

  rises of water, leading to a rapid flooding situation.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 1125 PM EST, emergency management reported ongoing

    flooding in the Pinnacle Drive area.

  - Flooding impacts will continue.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

    Omer.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the

dangers of flooding.



Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law

enforcement and request they pass this information to the National

Weather Service when you can do so safely.



&&



LAT...LON 4399 8375 4399 8376 4399 8379 4399 8380

      4399 8381 4400 8381 4406 8391 4406 8402

      4409 8402 4409 8390





$$



FEF






                

                        

945

WGUS83 KAPX 111623

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1123 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026



MIC011-111633-

/O.CAN.KAPX.FA.W.0001.000000T0000Z-260111T1630Z/

/00000.0.IJ.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Arenac MI-

1123 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026



...FLOOD WARNING FOR AN ICE JAM IS CANCELLED...



The Flood Warning is cancelled for a portion of northern Michigan,

including the following area, Arenac.



Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.



&&



LAT...LON 4399 8375 4399 8376 4399 8379 4399 8380

      4399 8381 4400 8381 4406 8391 4406 8402

      4409 8402 4409 8390





$$



PBB