Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

422

ACUS01 KWNS 150037

SWODY1

SPC AC 150035



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0635 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



Valid 150100Z - 151200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late

tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe

thunderstorms are not expected.



...01z Update...



Early-evening satellite imagery depicts a notable upper trough off

the southern CA Coast. This feature is forecast to drop south

overnight as 500mb speed max digs into the base of the trough west

of the northern Baja Peninsula. Net result will be weak midlevel

height falls along the southern CA Coast through sunrise. While the

associated surface front will not surge inland until later in the

day2 period, weak midlevel buoyancy is expected to develop after 06z

which may prove sufficient for a few flashes of lightning within pre

frontal warm conveyor elevated convection.



..Darrow.. 11/15/2025



$$






                

                        

979

ACUS02 KWNS 141712

SWODY2

SPC AC 141710



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1110 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN

PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...



...SUMMARY...

Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind

gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late Saturday afternoon

through Saturday evening.



...Discussion...

Although smaller-scale developments remain uncertain, latest model

output offers little change to prior runs concerning the large-scale

pattern evolution Saturday through Saturday night.  It still appears

that a more progressive flow emanating from the northern

mid-latitude Pacific, including a prominent cyclone on its leading

edge, will begin to impinge on a blocked regime which has evolved

across parts of eastern North America into the Atlantic.  The

cyclone is likely to undergo considerable deformation and weaken,

but an emerging mid-level perturbation is forecast to dig across the

upper through lower Great Lakes region, accompanied by secondary

surface cyclogenesis.



Upstream, the westerlies may undergo notable amplification,

including building ridging across and east of the Canadian and

northern U.S. Rockies, as well as across parts of the central into

eastern northern mid-latitude Pacific.  In between the ridge axes,

models indicate that splitting troughing will progress across the

eastern mid-latitude Pacific.  With the approach of the digging

southern portion of this trough, an initially cut-off low offshore

of the southern California/northern Baja coast is forecast to

accelerate into the Southwest late Saturday through Saturday night.



...Upper Ohio Valley...

Within the warm sector of the developing surface low, modest

low-level moisture return is forecast.  Both NAM and Rapid Refresh

forecast soundings indicate that this will contribute to the

development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least weak

conditional and convective instability in the lowest 5-6 km AGL,

becoming focused ahead of a southward advancing cold front, across

parts of the mid into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau vicinity

by late Saturday afternoon.



Where the weak boundary-layer destabilization occurs, it appears

that a warm layer aloft may tend to suppress thunderstorm

development, and mid/upper forcing for ascent to overcome the

inhibition remains unclear due to model spread.  However, there does

appear a general consensus for a pocket of modest mid-level cooling

across eastern Ohio into the western slopes of the Allegheny

Mountains late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  This may

be accompanied by the development of a relatively compact band of

stronger showers and thunderstorms, in the presence of strengthening

lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (including 40-50 kt mean

west-northwesterly flow).  Perhaps aided by latent cooling in

downdrafts associated with melting small hail, this activity may

contribute to the downward transfer of stronger winds to the

surface, before weakening will crossing the Allegheny Mountains

Saturday evening.



...Southwest...

It still appears that a pocket of colder mid-level air,

characterized by 500 mb temperatures as cold as near or just below

-20 C, will finally spread inland late Saturday through Saturday

night.  These temperatures are generally on the warmer side compared

to cool season environments typically conducive to low-topped

convective capable of producing lightning across and inland of

Pacific coastal areas.  However, it is possible that low-level

moisture return emanating from the lower latitude eastern Pacific

and Gulf of California may compensate and contribute to

thermodynamic profiles at least minimally sufficient for

thunderstorms.  Even if this occurs, particularly near southern

California coastal areas, generally saturated profiles with very

weak CAPE, and low-level hodographs becoming modest to weak, seem

likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.



Otherwise, it might not be out of the question that preceding

elevated moisture return contributes to layers of weak conditional

instability minimally supportive of convection capable of producing

lightning across parts of the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley

vicinity.



..Kerr.. 11/14/2025



$$






                

                        

421

NWUS53 KAPX 101452

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

952 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0700 AM     Snow             1 NNE Grawn             44.68N 85.68W

11/10/2025  M9.5 Inch        Grand Traverse     MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-GT-30 Traverse City 6.1

            SW.



0749 PM     Snow             3 NW Boyne City         45.21N 85.00W

11/09/2025  M4.7 Inch        Charlevoix         MI   Public







0800 AM     Snow             1 SSE Petoskey          45.36N 84.95W

11/10/2025  M4.4 Inch        Emmet              MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station PTYM4 Petoskey NCMC.



0257 PM     Snow             3 NW Boyne City         45.21N 85.00W

11/09/2025  M4.2 Inch        Charlevoix         MI   Public









&&



$$












                

                        

483

FXUS63 KAPX 150009

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

709 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain chances tonight/Saturday with passing frontal boundaries.

Isolated thunder possibilities (not really)??



- Windy Saturday afternoon/night.



- Colder with lake convection developing Saturday night and

continuing into Monday.



- Moderating temperatures for midweek and possibly becoming

unsettled.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Progressive pattern in place across North

America; negative tilt long wave trough from eastern Canada into the

western Atlantic...with a short wave ridge moving into the Plains

and central Canada. Split Pacific trough along the west coast...

strong northern branch height falls (160m/12h) across Alberta/

Saskatchewan...southern branch upper low off the California coast.

987mb occluded low with the northern branch wave over

Saskatchewan...warm front extends southeast across the Midwest

and into the southeastern U.S.. 1025mb surface high over the mid

Atlantic with a ridge axis extending northwest across the Great

Lakes/northwest Ontario.



Short wave ridge axis crosses the upper Great Lakes tonight while

low level thermal/moisture ridge pokes in from the southwest. Pretty

impressive 850mb temperatures from +8C to +12C expected to advect

across northern Michigan tonight as the warm front makes its

way across...before upstream cold/occluded front sweeps across

the forecast area from late morning through about mid afternoon

Saturday.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Rain chances tonight/Saturday with passing frontal boundaries.

Isolated thunder possibilities (not really)??: Strong warm

advection ongoing east of the approaching warm front...

relatively dry upstream however with the result of the

isentropic ascent being mostly mid/high clouds across the area

at mid afternoon. But surface dew points in the 50s are working

northward into Illnois/Iowa...so the expectation is for better

low level moisture flux over the warm frontal surface and into

Lower Michigan during the overnight hours. The set up is rather

interesting just from a pattern perspective with a sharp low

level theta-e ridge undercutting steeper 700-500mb lapse rates

(7-7.5C/km). This leads to several hundred J/kg of elevated

CAPE across roughly the southeast half of the forecast area

during the overnight and morning hours of Saturday...but at the

same time there may not be enough moisture to overcome capping.

So the probability for some convective showers developing

Saturday morning across parts of northeast Lower/Lake Huron

looks to be too minimal to add to the forecast...but if there is

lightning on Lake Huron Saturday morning you heard it here

first. Does appear to be a pretty good signal for low clouds/

fog developing to the east of the warm front (dew points on the

warm side higher than air temperatures on the cool side)...and

perhaps enough cloud depth to support some drizzle. Best chance

for measureable precipitation will come with the cold front and

associated short wave passage Saturday.



Windy Saturday afternoon/night: Cold frontal passage during the day

Saturday will swing winds around to the west/northwest...and

become gusty with onset of cold advection/mixing and perhaps a

bit of an isallobaric boost at frontal passage. Gusts upward of

25-35mph likely across northern Lower...and 30-40mph across

eastern Upper (another consequence will be temperatures falling

through the 40s during the afternoon). Gusty winds likely to

continue Saturday night as CBL depth increases as 850mb

temperatures dive below zero.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 345 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Colder with lake convection developing Saturday night and continuing

into Monday: Post-cold frontal air mass will cool things down

rapidly Saturday afternoon/Saturday night...which will set the

stage for northwesterly flow lake convection. Probably starting

off as some rain showers or mixed rain/snow showers as surface

based warm layer erodes Saturday night. 850mb temperatures

dropping to around -10C on Lake Superior and -8C on Lakes

Michigan/Huron by Sunday morning...which will increase the CBL

depth probably into the 750-800mb range.  Have 2-4 inches

across eastern Upper for Saturday night through Sunday

afternoon...and so far an inch or less across northern Lower

where thermodynamics are not as impressive and surface

temperatures may be a bit marginal.  Will need to watch for a

two lake band coming off of Lake Superior and clipping parts of

Presque Isle/Alpena counties. Cold deep layer northwesterly flow

continues Sunday night into Monday...but high pressure starts

to build in Monday afternoon which weaken the low level flow and

also start to weaken the overlying thermodynamics. Expect lake

convection to wind down Monday night for the most part.



Moderating temperatures for midweek and possibly becoming

unsettled:  Southern branch upper low moving into southern

California this weekend will push inland for the start of next

week...which in turn brings higher heights into the eastern

half of the CONUS by Wednesday.  The result is expected to be a

slow moderation in temperatures for the latter half of the

week...mostly seasonable by Thursday and perhaps above normal by

the end of the week. This dovetails with the 6-10 day outlook

(Thursday-Sunday) which is showing some good probabilities for

above normal temperatures (as well as leaning toward above

normal precipitation which may arrive as soon as Thursday).



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 658 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2025



VFR conditions continue for most for a majority of the night,

with winds increasing aloft. Thus, LLWS possible at KTVC, KMBL,

and KAPN, 240 at 35 KTs. BR/FG also possible tonight, but should

largely remain across the interior. -RA/-SHRA moves in from the

west during the early portions of Saturday, with brief drops in

VSBYs possible, especially KCIU. CIGs decrease as well, LIFR

for KCIU, perhaps briefly across KPLN and KAPN, with IFR to LIFR

elsewhere through at least midday Saturday. Southwest winds

will shift northwest on Saturday, with 10-15G20-30KTs.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for

     LHZ345>349.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 5 PM EST Sunday

     for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for

     LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JPB

LONG TERM...JPB

AVIATION...JLD






                

                        

119

ACUS11 KWNS 101448

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 101447

MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-101945-



Mesoscale Discussion 2204

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0847 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025



Areas affected...northeast IL...northwest IN...and western Lower MI



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 101447Z - 101945Z



SUMMARY...Brief periods of moderate to heavy lake effect snow may

impact southeastern Lake Michigan vicinity through the day as the

snow back shift east/southeast.



DISCUSSION...A band of lake effect snow is oriented from western

Lower MI to northeast IL this morning. This band is expected to

pivot east/southeast over time as low-level winds shift to

northwesterly with time and eastward extent. Areas along the

southeastern shore of Lake Michigan will see periods of moderate to

heavy snow as the band progresses east/southeast through the day. A

lack of stronger frontogenesis should temper overall snowfall rates,

but brief periods of near 1 inch per hour rates will be possible.



..Leitman.. 11/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...



LAT...LON   42168810 42278801 42858751 43758691 44378651 44368617

            43878596 43048584 42508590 42088606 41678635 41408654

            41258690 41298744 41378780 41528789 41728807 41958813

            42168810