Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

669

ACUS01 KWNS 141612

SWODY1

SPC AC 141610



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1010 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



Valid 141630Z - 151200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms may impact parts of southern California late

tonight into early Saturday morning, but organized severe

thunderstorms are not expected.



...Discussion...

Within prevalent split upper flow over western North America, a

southern-stream closed low off the coast of California will slowly

approach with the parent trough taking on a more neutral/slight

negative tilt over time. Showers/some thunderstorms will increase

toward the coast late tonight through early Saturday with the

approach of a frontal band. Instability is forecast to remain very

weak, with poor lapse rates aloft. Nevertheless, low-topped

convection may occasionally reach levels sufficient for charge

separation and lightning flashes as it approaches the coast and

moves onshore across parts of southern California late tonight and

early Saturday. Low-level winds are expected to remain modest, but

south-southwesterly flow will strengthen with height through

mid/upper levels. While strong/gusty winds may occur in the higher

terrain, the overall severe threat should be limited by minimal

instability and weak low-level shear.



..Guyer/Smith.. 11/14/2025



$$






                

                        

979

ACUS02 KWNS 141712

SWODY2

SPC AC 141710



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1110 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025



Valid 151200Z - 161200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY

AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN

PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...



...SUMMARY...

Showers and a few thunderstorms may be accompanied by strong wind

gusts across parts of the upper Ohio Valley late Saturday afternoon

through Saturday evening.



...Discussion...

Although smaller-scale developments remain uncertain, latest model

output offers little change to prior runs concerning the large-scale

pattern evolution Saturday through Saturday night.  It still appears

that a more progressive flow emanating from the northern

mid-latitude Pacific, including a prominent cyclone on its leading

edge, will begin to impinge on a blocked regime which has evolved

across parts of eastern North America into the Atlantic.  The

cyclone is likely to undergo considerable deformation and weaken,

but an emerging mid-level perturbation is forecast to dig across the

upper through lower Great Lakes region, accompanied by secondary

surface cyclogenesis.



Upstream, the westerlies may undergo notable amplification,

including building ridging across and east of the Canadian and

northern U.S. Rockies, as well as across parts of the central into

eastern northern mid-latitude Pacific.  In between the ridge axes,

models indicate that splitting troughing will progress across the

eastern mid-latitude Pacific.  With the approach of the digging

southern portion of this trough, an initially cut-off low offshore

of the southern California/northern Baja coast is forecast to

accelerate into the Southwest late Saturday through Saturday night.



...Upper Ohio Valley...

Within the warm sector of the developing surface low, modest

low-level moisture return is forecast.  Both NAM and Rapid Refresh

forecast soundings indicate that this will contribute to the

development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by at least weak

conditional and convective instability in the lowest 5-6 km AGL,

becoming focused ahead of a southward advancing cold front, across

parts of the mid into upper Ohio Valley/Allegheny Plateau vicinity

by late Saturday afternoon.



Where the weak boundary-layer destabilization occurs, it appears

that a warm layer aloft may tend to suppress thunderstorm

development, and mid/upper forcing for ascent to overcome the

inhibition remains unclear due to model spread.  However, there does

appear a general consensus for a pocket of modest mid-level cooling

across eastern Ohio into the western slopes of the Allegheny

Mountains late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening.  This may

be accompanied by the development of a relatively compact band of

stronger showers and thunderstorms, in the presence of strengthening

lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields (including 40-50 kt mean

west-northwesterly flow).  Perhaps aided by latent cooling in

downdrafts associated with melting small hail, this activity may

contribute to the downward transfer of stronger winds to the

surface, before weakening will crossing the Allegheny Mountains

Saturday evening.



...Southwest...

It still appears that a pocket of colder mid-level air,

characterized by 500 mb temperatures as cold as near or just below

-20 C, will finally spread inland late Saturday through Saturday

night.  These temperatures are generally on the warmer side compared

to cool season environments typically conducive to low-topped

convective capable of producing lightning across and inland of

Pacific coastal areas.  However, it is possible that low-level

moisture return emanating from the lower latitude eastern Pacific

and Gulf of California may compensate and contribute to

thermodynamic profiles at least minimally sufficient for

thunderstorms.  Even if this occurs, particularly near southern

California coastal areas, generally saturated profiles with very

weak CAPE, and low-level hodographs becoming modest to weak, seem

likely to minimize the risk for severe weather.



Otherwise, it might not be out of the question that preceding

elevated moisture return contributes to layers of weak conditional

instability minimally supportive of convection capable of producing

lightning across parts of the Mojave Desert/lower Colorado Valley

vicinity.



..Kerr.. 11/14/2025



$$






                

                        

421

NWUS53 KAPX 101452

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

952 AM EST Mon Nov 10 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0700 AM     Snow             1 NNE Grawn             44.68N 85.68W

11/10/2025  M9.5 Inch        Grand Traverse     MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-GT-30 Traverse City 6.1

            SW.



0749 PM     Snow             3 NW Boyne City         45.21N 85.00W

11/09/2025  M4.7 Inch        Charlevoix         MI   Public







0800 AM     Snow             1 SSE Petoskey          45.36N 84.95W

11/10/2025  M4.4 Inch        Emmet              MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station PTYM4 Petoskey NCMC.



0257 PM     Snow             3 NW Boyne City         45.21N 85.00W

11/09/2025  M4.2 Inch        Charlevoix         MI   Public









&&



$$












                

                        

558

FXUS63 KAPX 141132

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

632 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



-High pressure leads to dry weather and anomalous warmth today.



-Quick-moving system zips through Saturday, bringing the next

 rain chances. Anomalous warmth prevails for one last day.



-Cooler with renewed lake effect snow chances Sunday and into Monday

 before we trend seasonable and less active through next week.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 209 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025



Pattern Synopsis:



Amplified ridge over central NOAM will continue to force a potent

longwave trough into Atlantic Canada, leading to surface high

pressure over the Ohio Valley maintaining meteorological order

through the day today and tonight, with dry and anomalously warm

conditions prevailing. A Pacific borne wave currently residing in

the Canadian Rockies will crest the ridge, zipping into the upper

Midwest via quick zonal WNW flow. Result will be an uptick in return

flow, drawing warmer and more moist air into the Great Lakes.

Antecedent dry conditions will lead to a lack of saturation, but as

a warm advection wing passes through Lake Superior, suppose there is

just enough to force an isolated shower aloft as a stable layer

holds beneath a budding inversion.



Forecast Details:



If you want a gem of a day to catch up on autumnal yardwork, today

is the day! Surface high pressure will lead to a minimal SSE flow,

with partly to mostly sunny skies prevailing. Highs today top out in

the mid 40s in the eastern Yoop, 47-52 across far NE lower, and 52

to 59 across the rest of the region.



As we head into tonight, dry conditions continue to prevail, but an

increase in mid level cloud along with an increasingly pinched

pressure gradient drumming up SSE return flow, anticipating an

anomalously mild night across the region, especially across NW

lower. Some early decoupling may lead to an evening dip in

temperatures across NE lower and eastern Yoop (could see temps fall

to the 33 to 37 range, especially inland)... but otherwise, sure

looks like a lot of the CWA settles in the upper 30s to mid 40s

elsewhere (warmest west of US 131 in NW lower). As far as rain

shower chances go, anticipating that anywhere from 95 to 99% of the

APX footprint holds dry. Only hiccup may be a light shower across

Chippewa County (esp. closer to Lake Superior) as a WAA wing

traverses Lake Superior. Soundings look unimpressive, but do showcase

some elevated lift and saturation. Not anticipating much out of any

showers that manage to form... ample dry layer in the low levels

likely hampers any precip as it falls, so will roll with slight

chance PoPs along and north of M-28, and dry elsewhere.



&&



.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 209 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025



Aforementioned shortwave trough digging into the Upper Midwest

traverses the region Saturday, forcing a cold front through the

region later in the day. This system, while Pacific borne, will

be moderated considerably by drier air stretching from Alberta

to the Great Lakes, limiting its potential for appreciable

precipitation. Anticipating limited instability with this

passage as well... so will likely see a narrow band of shallow

convection pretty much right along the front as it passes from

W to E through the late morning into the afternoon. Better

forcing will confine the more prevalent rains across eastern

upper. Nonetheless, this moisture starved system will serve as

nothing much more than a feature to crank up the winds and

eventually return a much more seasonable airmass. Would not be

surprised to see highs Saturday near daily records (low-to-mid

60s), but not expecting those to fall as highs generally settle

54 to 64 degrees. Most spots in northern lower probably see

0.10" or less of rain, with the eastern Yoop cashing in on

0.10-0.25" of rain.



In the wake of this system, sharply cooler NW flow builds into the

region, which should lead to temperatures returning back into the

30s to near 40 Sunday into Monday, as this feature digs into New

England and again leads to us positioning ourselves on the periphery

of a longwave troughing over eastern NOAM. Colder air aloft will

lead to lake effect snow potential, though it should be noted that

synoptic moisture leaves much to be desires. As a result,

anticipating the return of lake effect snows as overlake instability

builds Sunday and Monday... the issue is that with meager moisture,

there may not be enough to give the lake effect snowfall its usual

kick that it brings... so anticipating minor accumulations at best

across the NW lower snowbelts... though better moisture may lead to

higher amounts in any bands across the eastern Yoop... but still

rather minor (ceiling amounts for this would be 2-4" in any dominant

banding) Sunday into Monday. in addition to lake effect potential, it

will be quite breezy Sunday, with frequent 30 to 40mph gusts

possible, particularly in areas near the lakeshores north of M-72,

which should add a biting chill to this colder air intrusion.



Beyond this, the pattern relaxes as northern Michigan holds in the

neutral point of the pattern... sandwiched between the departing

longwave trough, and the next wave set to cut through the Corn Belt

/ northern Ohio Valley / lower Great Lakes... likely leaving

the region in a seasonably cool and somewhat drier regime to

close out next week... with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s

and lows in the 20s and lower 30s. Will have to watch a southern

stream wave toward the very end of the forecast period that may

make a run at the Great Lakes from the southwest, but details

and timing of this feature remain quite murky at this juncture.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 632 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025



Milder and relative dry airmass in place thru this evening. A

touch of fog has developed near Lake MI, and through this hasn`t

bothered MBL yet, PLN checked in with a BKN001 about an hour

ago. LIFR or worse is possible at PLN thru 14Z or so. Otherwise

VFR thru this evening. Clouds and winds will be increasing

tonight ahead of our next system. Have CIU seeing MVFR cigs

(with VCSH) after 15/10Z. Other places see low-end VFR

conditions, though with worse conditions expected beyond this

TAF period.



Relatively light winds today. South to sw breezes increase

tonight. Have LLWS late tonight at MBL/TVC.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for

     LHZ345>348.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for

     LHZ349.

     Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening for

     LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...HAD

LONG TERM...HAD

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

119

ACUS11 KWNS 101448

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 101447

MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-101945-



Mesoscale Discussion 2204

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0847 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025



Areas affected...northeast IL...northwest IN...and western Lower MI



Concerning...Heavy snow



Valid 101447Z - 101945Z



SUMMARY...Brief periods of moderate to heavy lake effect snow may

impact southeastern Lake Michigan vicinity through the day as the

snow back shift east/southeast.



DISCUSSION...A band of lake effect snow is oriented from western

Lower MI to northeast IL this morning. This band is expected to

pivot east/southeast over time as low-level winds shift to

northwesterly with time and eastward extent. Areas along the

southeastern shore of Lake Michigan will see periods of moderate to

heavy snow as the band progresses east/southeast through the day. A

lack of stronger frontogenesis should temper overall snowfall rates,

but brief periods of near 1 inch per hour rates will be possible.



..Leitman.. 11/10/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...



LAT...LON   42168810 42278801 42858751 43758691 44378651 44368617

            43878596 43048584 42508590 42088606 41678635 41408654

            41258690 41298744 41378780 41528789 41728807 41958813

            42168810