Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

410

ACUS01 KWNS 110542

SWODY1

SPC AC 110541



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1241 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025



Valid 111200Z - 121200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH...



...SUMMARY...

Strong thunderstorms accompanied by at least some risk for severe

wind and hail may impact parts of eastern New Mexico into the Texas

South Plains, as well as parts of eastern North Dakota into

northwestern Minnesota, late this afternoon and evening.



...Synopsis...

Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts an upper trough/vorticity

maximum settling into the southern/central High Plains. This feature

is expected to stall and weaken over the Plains over the next 24

hours with a gradual abatement of mid-level flow. To the north, a

pronounced mid-level wave is apparent over the Canadian

Rockies/Prairies. This feature will continue southeastward into the

northern Plains and upper Mississippi River Valley through tonight.

Strong/severe thunderstorm chances will largely be attendant to

these mid-level features.



...Southern High Plains...

05z surface observations across the southern Plains reveal a

composite frontal zone/outflow boundary draped from far northeast NM

through the TX/OK Panhandles and roughly along the OK/KS border.

This boundary will likely be displaced southward as a result of

early-morning convection, though precisely where this boundary

resides by peak heating is somewhat uncertain. Regardless,

thunderstorm development along this boundary is expected by late

afternoon/early evening. To the south of this boundary, easterly

winds on the northern periphery of a weak surface low over the

Permian Basin will maintain an upslope flow regime along the eastern

slopes of the Sacramento, Sandia Manzano, and Sangre de Cristo

Mountains. Modest westerly mid-level flow atop easterly low-level

winds should yield sufficient deep-layer shear for a few organized

storms, including a supercell or two. With time, upscale growth

and/or merging with additional convection developing along the

surface boundary will promote an increased threat for severe gusts

through early evening. While convection is expected northeastward

along much of the boundary from central OK into adjacent portions of

KS/MO, weaker mid-level winds with eastward extent casts doubt on

the potential for a robust severe threat (aside from occasional

strong wet downbursts).



...Red River Valley of the North...

Modest surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the central

Canadian Prairies over the next 24 hours as the mid-level wave

approaches the international border. An attendant cold front is

forecast to spread across the northern Plains through late afternoon

and will impinge on a plume of seasonal low-level moisture. While

mid-level lapse rates will remain modest (around 6-7 C/km), adequate

buoyancy should be in place for deep convection. 30-40 knot

mid-level flow should provide sufficient deep-layer shear for

organized storms, though the marginal thermodynamic environment will

likely be a modulating factor in overall storm intensity. Strong

frontal forcing should promote upscale growth through the evening

hours with an associated threat for damaging/severe winds.



..Moore/Darrow.. 08/11/2025



$$






                

                        

291

ACUS02 KWNS 110532

SWODY2

SPC AC 110531



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1231 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR EASTERN

WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the upper Great

Lakes region Tuesday.



...Synopsis and Discussion...

The main feature of interest will be a shortwave trough moving

across the upper MS Valley and across the Great Lakes, with

attendant cold front pushing east across Upper MI and WI through

00Z. Modest instability and lift along the front will likely result

in scattered afternoon thunderstorms over these areas.



While lapse rates will remain poor aloft, the combination of

strengthening deep-layer shear and frontal passage near peak heating

may yield a few stronger storms within an expected line across

eastern WI. Mean wind speeds in the lowest 3km will not be very

strong, nor will the mixed boundary layer be particularly deep.

However, isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail may occur as

cooling aloft overspreads the warmed air mass late.



Elsewhere, scattered storms will occur over the Southern Plains

beneath a weak midlevel disturbance, and over parts of the Midwest

and Southeast where low-level moisture will favor sporadic afternoon

development.



..Jewell.. 08/11/2025



$$






                

                        

146

NWUS53 KAPX 100124

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

924 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0830 PM     Rain             1 E Garnet              46.15N 85.27W

08/09/2025  M1.31 Inch       Mackinac           MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station REXM4 1 WNW Rexton. 12 hour

            total.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

716

FXUS63 KAPX 110641

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

241 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Showers, storms, and downpours focus on eastern upper and

  northwest lower through the morning. Primary concern is heavy

  rainfall.



- Additional shower and storm development anticipated this

  afternoon across the rest of northern lower. Primary concern

  is brief torrential rain, though a gustier storm is possible.



- More of the same, with warm conditions and periodic shower and

  storm chances into Tuesday.



- A bit less warm and humid Wednesday into Thursday, with more

  warmth, humidity, and rain chances building heading into next

  weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025



Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:



Longwave troughing over Ontario will continue to move north and

east, with a slowing north to south cold front draped from

western upper Michigan to roughly Jefferson City, MO continuing

its slow eastward advance. Here in northern Michigan, we will be

delicately placed between this feature and a ridge axis

advancing eastward through Ontario and Quebec. This will keep a

moist airmass throughout the region over the course of the

forecast period, which will bring rounds of showers and storms

to northern Michigan over the next 24 to 36 hours. Finer details

showcase a corridor of stronger LLJ flow, which is inducing

convection just off the Lake Michigan shore as of 06z Monday,

with a subtle eastward advance placing that activity across

northwest lower Michigan. There is also a pseudo-organized

mesolow approaching Green Bay, WI, which will drift north and

east the rest of tonight, passing through the region this

morning, bringing potential for a round of showers and thunder

across the Straits and the eastern Yoop. This feature will

likely throw a weak outflow boundary across the rest of the

region from west to east, which will bring about shower and

storm potential across the rest of northern lower (I.E., east of

US 131) as this area of convergence provides a source of lift

in an increasingly unstable airmass this afternoon.



Forecast Details:



Some concern regarding the convection across northwest lower the

rest of tonight. Latest mesoanalysis showcases a quickly moistening

profile (on the order of 2.0+ PWATs across southeast Wisconsin into

central Lake Michigan). This moist environment looks to overlap with

continued convective initiation across far eastern Lake Michigan,

slowly intruding across northwest lower with time. Considering such

a moist environment, along with echo training already noted over the

lake, this could turn into a setup for locally heavy rainfall,

possibly in the order of 1.50"+ in some of the shore locales from

Leelanau to Manistee counties by the time this feature departs this

morning. Lack of organization should prevent a more robust rain

outburst (and thus anything more than marginal flooding concerns).

Much of the same can be said for the mesolow as it traverses the

Straits into eastern upper... this feature should remain transient

enough to mitigate hydrologic concerns as well, though locally heavy

rainfall is certainly on the table.



Into later this afternoon, a weak wind-shift / outflow boundary will

provide a source of lift for storms across the rest of northern

lower. Activity will likely be widely scattered to isolated between

US 131 and I-75 before becoming a bit more widespread across

northeast lower. Again... some of this activity may present a brief

torrential rainfall threat, but all in all, this activity also looks

to be transient enough to prevent flooding concerns. As is a common

case with afternoon storms in northern Michigan... widespread severe

storms are not anticipated, but within any more robust updrafts,

certainly possible for some gusty winds. At this juncture, the warm

nature of the airmass and elevated hail layer, coupled with abysmal

shear (bulk shear again less than 20kts today) would make it

difficult to attain much more than some small hail in the most

robust of storms.



Looking into tonight, will have to watch how a more robust

convectively charged wave evolves as it lifts along the front from

Missouri into the Great Lakes late tonight. Some guidance wants to

bring this feature into northern Michigan, possibly complete with a

mesolow, which could bring about another round of nocturnal showers

and storms late tonight. More details to come.





&&



.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 241 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025



There is relief in the air for those weary of the heat and humidity

as we get to midweek, but we will have to contend with one more day

of humid weather and storm chances as we get through Tuesday. The

aforementioned cold frontal boundary will finally pass through the

region as a more defined area of longwave troughing passes through

northern Michigan Tuesday. Not much sticks out in regard to heavy

rain at this juncture, as any activity along the front will likely

hold transient enough once the front is forced through (accelerating

in the process). We will have to watch and see if any linear

convective segments can materialize on the front itself, which could

pose a severe threat, particularly across the western half of the

CWA given a potential evening / early overnight passage. In the wake

of this frontal passage, cooler and drier air briefly fills in, with

highs largely in the 70s and overnight lows generally 45 to 55

(coolest across the interior). The front won`t remain past us for

long... as another ridge builds and southerly return flow draws the

front (and the heat / humidity with it) back into northern Michigan,

and reintroducing shower and storm chances across the region this

upcoming weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...

Issued at 1245 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025



Scattered showers and storms will continue to track across parts of

northern Michigan tonight and may persist at times into Monday

afternoon -- primarily across northwest lower and eastern upper.

CIGs may drop to MVFR across these areas for a time late

tonight/Monday morning in association with showers/storms.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected across the remainder of

northern Michigan through the issuance period. Southwest winds

around 10 kts with gusts to around 20 kts are expected for most

areas on Monday.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...HAD

LONG TERM...HAD

AVIATION...DJC






                

                        

283

ACUS11 KWNS 110744

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 110743

OKZ000-KSZ000-110915-



Mesoscale Discussion 1928

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0243 AM CDT Mon Aug 11 2025



Areas affected...parts of southern KS into northern OK



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587...



Valid 110743Z - 110915Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 587

continues.



SUMMARY...Strong to severe gusts remain possible as storms shift

east across southern KS and northern OK the next couple of hours.



DISCUSSION...A well-organized bowing MCS will continue shifting east

the next few hours. The downstream airmass is modestly unstable,

with latest mesoanalysis data indicating around 1000-1500 J/kg

MUCAPE. Vertical shear also will remain somewhat modest, but

sufficient for organized convection, at least in the short term.

Measured severe gusts in southern KS over the past hour have been in

the 60-70 mph range, and this may persist another 1-2 hours given a

well defined rear-inflow jet and mature bowing MCS. With time,

gradual weakening is expected across southeast KS/northeast OK where

earlier and ongoing precipitation ahead of the MCS will likely limit

downstream severe, especially east of the I-35 corridor.



..Leitman.. 08/11/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...



LAT...LON   38359887 38449718 38069608 36689599 36209620 36169874

            36369934 37599944 38359887



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN








                

                        

522

WGUS53 KAPX 090003

FFWAPX

MIC129-090315-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0005.250809T0003Z-250809T0315Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

Flash Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

803 PM EDT Fri Aug 8 2025



The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a



* Flash Flood Warning for...

  Northwestern Ogemaw County in northern Michigan...



* Until 1115 PM EDT.



* At 803 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing

  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1 and 3 inches of rain

  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are

  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected

  to begin shortly.



  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.



  SOURCE...Radar.



  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban

           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as

           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.



* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

  Rose City, Rose Township and Clear Lake.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.



In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are

potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded

roads. Find an alternate route.



&&



LAT...LON 4432 8408 4435 8425 4440 8427 4446 8426

      4448 8414 4448 8411 4435 8402



FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED



$$



JLD






                

                        

212

WGUS83 KAPX 092031

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

431 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025



MIC033-092130-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FA.Y.0015.250809T2031Z-250809T2130Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Chippewa MI-

431 PM EDT Sat Aug 9 2025



...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.



* WHERE...A portion of eastern upper Michigan, including the

  following county, Chippewa.



* WHEN...Until 530 PM EDT.



* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.

  River or stream flows are elevated.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 431 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to

    thunderstorms. Minor flooding is ongoing or expected to begin

    shortly in the advisory area. Between 1 and 1.5 inches of

    rain have fallen.

  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are expected

    over the area. This additional rain will result in minor

    flooding.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

    mainly rural areas of Central Chippewa County

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are

potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded

roads. Find an alternate route.



Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where

you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become

killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or

creeks.



&&



LAT...LON 4648 8428 4652 8422 4652 8421 4652 8417

      4652 8416 4652 8415 4651 8412 4647 8415

      4643 8423 4646 8424 4646 8427





$$



ELD