Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

752

ACUS01 KWNS 170516

SWODY1

SPC AC 170514



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1214 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.



...Synopsis...

In the wake of a cold frontal passage, much of the CONUS will be too

dry and stable for thunderstorm development today. The front will

continue moving southward along the central/southern FL Peninsula,

where scattered storm development will be possible within a very

moist environment. Poor lapse rates and weak deep-layer shear should

limit organized severe potential, though localized strong gusts may

occur. Across the Southwest, sporadic lightning flashes may

accompany weak convection associated with a slow-moving mid/upper

low centered offshore of Baja California.



..Dean/Chalmers.. 10/17/2026



$$






                

                        

741

ACUS02 KWNS 170547

SWODY2

SPC AC 170545



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1245 AM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are not expected tomorrow (Sunday).



...Synopsis...

A mid-level ridge will remain over the central U.S. while a 500 mb

cut-off low meanders off of the Atlantic Coast and broad upper

troughing dominates the western CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). A

relatively cool and stable low-level airmass will overspread much of

the CONUS, inhibiting thunderstorm development. A few thunderstorms

may occur over the southern FL Peninsula, where the heating of

remnant low-level moisture will promote localized lift and buoyancy.

A couple of lightning flashes may also occur over portions of the

Desert Southwest, where cooler temperatures aloft and modest ascent

will accompany a weak mid-level impulse.



..Squitieri.. 10/17/2026



$$






                

                        

001

NWUS53 KAPX 170209

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1009 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0545 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 6 SSW Beaver Island     45.63N 85.61W

10/16/2026  M40 MPH          LMZ362             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station EW1109 Beaver Island.



0747 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Traverse City      44.73N 85.57W

10/16/2026  M39 MPH          Grand Traverse     MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KTVC Traverse City - Cherry

            Capital Airport.



0833 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Charlevoix        45.30N 85.27W

10/16/2026  M39 MPH          Charlevoix         MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KCVX Charlevoix - Municipal

            Arpt.



0620 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 N Bayview Campground  46.55N 84.77W

10/16/2026  M39 MPH          LSZ321             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station 4403587 6 N Bayview

            Campground.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

756

FXUS63 KAPX 170820

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

420 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy/windy this weekend with the start of a warming trend.



- Calmer conditions for Monday as the mild stretch continues

  into next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 420 AM EDT Sat Oct 17 2026



Pattern Synopsis: Full-latitude long wave trough encompasses the

eastern half of North America to start the weekend...bit of a split

in the trough with energy in the southern end expected to cause

mischief along the eastern seaboard over the coming days.  A broad

ridge (+2 sigma 500mb height anomaly) across the Great Basin/Rockies

and extending north into the Canadian Territories. What had earlier

this week been an amplified pattern across the Pacific basin...

anchored by upper lows over the Aleutians and north of Japan...is

flattening/becoming more zonal with a strong Pacific jet keeping

things progressive across North America.  Trough axis now east of

the upper Lakes so stronger north/northwest flow settling in aloft.

Low level thermal trough runs northeast-southwest from northeast

Ontario/Quebec across Michigan and into the mid Mississippi Valley;

-4C 850mb temperatures off the 0000Z APX/GRB soundings allowing for

north flow lake-induced cloud streets off the surrounding Lakes

along with some spotty showers (Inversion ~800mb/-7C at APX).

Low-mid level warm air advection already occurring across the upper

Midwest/Manitoba/northern Ontario which is spreading an As deck

toward Lake Superior.  0400Z surface analysis shows a 1039mb high

centered over the central/southern Plains with impressive ridging

for mid October extending all the way into northeast Mexico (+4 to

+5 sigma MSLP anomaly).  Surface ridge axis extends northeast from

the High into the upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes with increasing

anticyclonic flow.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Breezy/windy this weekend with the start of a warming trend: Another

round of the "Gales of October" setting up for the weekend...as

surface ridge axis shifts south and the pressure gradient ramps up

again...this time with a southwesterly wind component.  Unlike on

Friday...warm advection will suppress mixed layer depths so downward

momentum transfer will be less efficient.  For today...strongest

wind gusts expected north of a line from FKS-PZQ with gusts upwards

of 30mph.  Gusts to 35mph possible along the Lake Michigan shoreline

areas north of the Leelanau Peninsula...and along the south shore of

the Upper Peninsula.  Winds will remain gusty tonight due to

turbulent mixing...with overnight temperatures probably becoming

steady or rising a bit.  Gradient tightens up even more Sunday with

a cold front approaching the Lake Superior basin (which eventually

gets strung out before reaching Upper Michigan).  Though mixing

heights will be even shallower Sunday there is more momentum

available...thus more 25-35mph wind gusts across northern Lower

Michigan (gusts to 40mph near Lake Michigan)....and 30-40mph gusts

across eastern Upper.  Have re-jiggered marine headlines between

outgoing and incoming headlines. Have opted to go with a Small Craft

Advisory/Gale Watch combination for the Lake Michigan zones from

Point Betsie north...as well as through the Straits and the Straits

to False Detour Lake Huron zone.  Despite Gale Warnings already

being up for the open Lake Michigan waters for Sunday...would rather

deal with the two periods of small craft conditions at the onset and

separate out the gales which will be more prevalent Sunday.



Expect temperatures to return to near normal for this afternoon

(widespread 50s).  Sunday highs would have a lot of potential if we

could tap into 850mb temperatures at or above 12C...but mixing depth

too shallow for that (and that lack of mixing is why 850mb

temperatures are so warm). Expecting more highs in the 60s across

northern Lower...and from 55 to 60 above the Bridge.



Calmer conditions for Monday as the mild stretch continues into next

week:  Developing east coast system will bottle up the pattern for

the start of next week...but the big news for Monday will be less

wind as high pressure establishes itself across the Great Lakes.

Temperatures will remain above normal heading into the week with

minimal spread in temperature forecasts.  Highs in the 60s are

expected through the work week...with parts of northern Lower

flirting with 70-75 degree highs from Tuesday through Friday. The

threat for rain next week looks minimal at this point...and the 6 to

10 day forecast valid from Thursday through Sunday continues high

probabilities (70 to 80 percent) of above normal temperatures (and

below normal precipitation).  Not the best news for burgeoning

drought conditions across eastern Upper (Severe Drought per

latest Drought Monitor).



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1141 PM EDT Fri Oct 16 2026



N/NNW winds should continue to diminish thru 9-10z or so and could

turn light/vrb with offshore/land breezes possible at

TVC/MBL...before switching to SW/WSW after 12-15z...becoming gusty

again 15-25kts or a little better, esp for PLN/CIU. VFR conditions

likely to continue with clouds generally diminishing overnight...but

brief MVFR possible for MBL around 8-12z when a shower is possible;

VFR prevails thru the rest of the period at all sites, with SKC

possible, esp for MBL. Still wonder about patchy fog but not as

confident in this idea for taf sites with aggressive drying thus far

tonight.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT

     Sunday for LHZ345-346.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for LHZ345-

     346.

     Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM EDT

     Monday for LHZ347-348.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LHZ349.

     Gale Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for LMZ323-

     341-342-344-345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LMZ346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LMZ323-341-342-

     344-345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JPB

AVIATION...FEF






                

                        

545

ACUS11 KWNS 162134

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 162133

NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-162300-



Mesoscale Discussion 2382

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0433 PM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026



Areas affected...portions of the Mid Atlantic



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686...687...



Valid 162133Z - 162300Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 686, 687

continues.



SUMMARY...A broken band of low-topped thunderstorms with a history

of wind damage should continue eastward this evening. More stable

conditions to the east should slowly weaken the complex with time.



DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, regional radar imagery over the

Northeast/Mid Atlantic showed a broken band of low-topped

thunderstorms from southern NY to VA. portions of this line have a

history of wind damage across WW686. The environment downstream is

strongly sheared, but increasingly stable with SBCAPE decreasing

below 500 J/kg across southern New England. Slightly more buoyancy

is being observed farther south into the DelMarVa where more

clearing has been present. Trends over the last hour show northern

portions of the line have weakened and become less organized. This

trend is likely to continue as storms move into portions of WW687,

though the strength of the background wind field will still favor

isolated damaging gusts potential into this evening.



The greatest severe potential appears to be focused across

southeastern PA, into southern NJ and the Mid Atlantic Coast where

warmer and more unstable conditions will persist into the evening

hours. Isolated damaging gusts remain possible across WW687 before

convection weakens/moves offshore around 2-3z.



..Lyons.. 10/16/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...



LAT...LON   38837882 40337619 42027416 42027313 41897278 41567273

            40877320 38717500 38347738 38427802 38837882



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH