Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

387

ACUS01 KWNS 051952

SWODY1

SPC AC 051950



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0250 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025



Valid 052000Z - 061200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over portions

of the central and southern Plains late this afternoon and evening.



...20Z Update...

The only change with this update was a minor southward expansion of

the MRGL risk area into the OK/TX Panhandles. Here, the latest

surface observations indicate middle 50s dewpoints ahead of the

front, which should support sufficient surface-based buoyancy for an

isolated/brief strong-severe storm risk -- given 30-40 kt of

effective shear and a nocturnally strengthening LLJ. Marginally

severe hail and locally damaging gusts are the primary concerns with

any sustained storms this evening. Elsewhere, the forecast remains

on track. See the previous discussion below for details.



..Weinman.. 10/05/2025



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025/



...Upper Midwest into the Central Plains...

Within large-scale upper troughing over much of central Canada and

the western CONUS, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough over the

northern Plains will advance northeastward today into western

Ontario. At the surface, low pressure will similarly track

northeastward, while a cold front continues to advance

south-southeastward over the Upper Midwest and central Plains

through this evening. While mid 50s to low 60s surface dewpoints are

expected to be in place ahead of the front this afternoon, warm

temperatures/poor lapse rates aloft will hinder the development of

any more than weak instability. Current expectations are for

thunderstorms to develop late this afternoon/early evening along

much of the length of the front from western WI/southern MN

southwestward to western/central KS as a southerly low-level jet

gradually strengthens. Most of this activity will be quickly

undercut given enhanced mid-level flow aligned largely parallel to

the front. Even so, some potential for strong to locally severe

thunderstorms remains apparent across parts of KS into southeast NE

and southwest IA, where convection may have a better chance to

remain surface based for a couple of hours after initiation.

Isolated hail and severe gusts should be the main threat with this

activity before it eventually weakens later this evening.



...Central Gulf Coast States...

Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this morning offshore

from the central Gulf Coast in association with a weak

mid/upper-level trough over the northern Gulf. Modest low/mid-level

flow should limit thunderstorm organization, but occasional/weak

low-level rotation has occurred with cells south of the FL

Panhandle. With east-northeasterly low-level flow expected to

persist along the coast, overall severe potential over land appears

too low to include any severe probabilities.



$$






                

                        

068

ACUS02 KWNS 051703

SWODY2

SPC AC 051701



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1201 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025



Valid 061200Z - 071200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

The threat of severe storms appears low on Monday.



...Synopsis...

An expansive upper-level cyclone will move eastward across Canada on

Monday, with the southern periphery of the stronger winds aloft from

the far northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes. South of this

feature, a weakening positive-tilt wave will extend into the Great

basin, with a belt of moderate southwesterlies aloft from CO into

the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes.



At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched across the northern

Rockies and Plains, with another strong high affecting much of the

eastern states. In between these anticyclones, a relative surface

trough and wind shift will extend roughly from northern Lower MI

southwestward into KS and toward the TX Panhandle at midday, making

minimal eastward progress through Tuesday morning.



...From the southern High Plains into Lower MI...

Along the length of the boundary, surface heating along with

dewpoints mostly in the 60s F will lead to a marginally unstable

environment with SBCAPE averaging 500 to 1000 J/kg, with similar

elevated MUCAPE values on the cool side of the boundary. Effective

deep-layer shear will generally be at or below 30 kt, with

boundary-parallel flow.



A few strong storms may develop during the afternoon from northeast

NM in to northwest OK where heating will be strong. However, warm

profiles aloft suggest minimal hail potential. A few stronger cells

with strong gusts may also occur from northern IL into Lower MI, but

meager CAPE profiles suggest minimal severe risk.



..Jewell.. 10/05/2025



$$






                

                        

711

FXUS63 KAPX 051935

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

335 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy southwest winds and shower/storm chances Monday as a cold

front approaches from the northwest



- Cooler temperatures Tuesday through Friday, with frost/freeze

concerns Wednesday and Thursday morning



- Next chance for precipitation holds off until the

  weekend/early next week



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025



Surface observations depict southwest winds of 10 to 20 mph with

frequent gusts up to 20 to 30 mph over most of the U.P. and northern

lower this afternoon (with the exception of a few sheltered

locations). This, as well as satellite showing fair wx CU over most

of NW Lower, hints at mixing heights rising into the warm sector

this afternoon. Breezy south winds will continue into the night

tonight as a cold front approaches from the NE. As a result

overnight temperatures will remain warmer, especially over northern

lower where they will likely remain in the low 60s.



A line of stratiform rain with embedded showers will exist along the

front, which will be orientated from SW to the NE. A broad upper

trough will set up mid & upper level flow that is parallel to the

boundary. It will reach eastern upper Monday morning, and will

slowly move across northern lower towards Saginaw Bay throughout the

day tomorrow. Embedded thunder will be possible Monday afternoon

over parts of NE lower. Marginal instability exists along and ahead

of the boundary, where AM sunshine is able to heat the surface and

temps aloft are starting to cool. PWATs will start to push an inch

tomorrow late morning due to Pacific and Gulf moisture advection,

although northern lower MI will be on the fringes of the Gulf

moisture surge. Modest low level shear will be seen along the

boundary, with better mid level shear behind the boundary. Colder

air will lag behind the intial push of the boundary, keeping

instability over the lakes rather low until later Monday.



All of these details summarize to most areas seeing clouds and

times of light to moderate rain Monday (starting in the morning

for eastern upper and midday afternoon for northern lower).

Weak embedded storms will be possible over NE lower Monday

afternoon, producing mostly thunder and heavier rainfall - but

also holds the possibility for gusty outflow winds with the

strongest storms. Low chances for waterspouts due to very little

low level wind shear when the colder temperatures arrive (when

we have a little lake instability behind the front). Most

locations should see a trace to a quarter of an inch of rain

tonight through Monday night, with locations under storms seeing

up to a half inch in total.



There is moderate to high confidence that these features will remain

misaligned (non-stacked frontal passage - keeping it weaker, wind

shear and instability not overlapped, and the deepest moisture out

of reach - Pacific moisture running low by the time it reaches MI

and remaining on the fringes of the Gulf moisture). Not to mention

there is dry air near the surface that will need to be overcome.

Models remain fairly consistent with this outcome. The one place of

uncertainty lies in if a storm or two could form over the

central Lk Michigan coastal areas and reach the northern parts

of Saginaw Bay. Confidence in these being impactful storms

remain low, however slight shifts in timing could result in a

storm slightly stronger than anticipated over that southern part

of NE lower.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Issued at 325 PM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025



Clouds and rain will gradually move out Tuesday morning as surface

high pressure builds in. Another frontal push will be seen late

Tuesday, continuing partly cloudy skies into Tuesday night and

little to no chances for rain. A 1034 mb surface high pressure

will dominate over the Great Lakes region through the end of the

work week. The drier and cooler airmass will result in medium to

high chances for frost/freeze conditions over interior locations

of northern lower and eastern upper. Overnight low temperatures

could dip into the high 20s and low 30s in the coldest spots on

Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Higher confidence in cold

overnight lows for northern lower. Medium confidence in cold

overnight lowers for eastern upper, due to the low chances of

lake aggregate troughing generating some cloud cover. Otherwise,

temperature will start to warm this weekend.



Next notable chances for precipitation arrive this weekend, however

there is low confidence.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...

Issued at 1149 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025



VFR this afternoon through tonight with increasingly gusty

south-southwest winds. Strong low-level jet develops this

evening, spreading LLWS across much of the area tonight. Shower

chances and accompanying lower CIGs return Monday morning with

winds eventually veering northwesterly (and diminishing) toward

early Monday afternoon.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM EDT this evening for MIZ025-

     031-095.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for LHZ345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Monday for LMZ323-342-

     344>346.

     Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for LMZ341.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...ELD

LONG TERM...ELD

AVIATION...MJG






                

                        

957

ACUS11 KWNS 052051

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 052050

NEZ000-KSZ000-052315-



Mesoscale Discussion 2137

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0350 PM CDT Sun Oct 05 2025



Areas affected...southwest to northeast Kansas and far southeast

Nebraska



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 052050Z - 052315Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms should develop

this afternoon into the evening hours. Isolated severe hail or wind

reports may occur, a watch is not likely.



DISCUSSION...A surface front continues to slowly move south across

the area, with an increase in low clouds denoted behind/north of the

front. Along and to the south of the front, the airmass has become

weakly to moderately unstable with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg across

much of the highlighted area. Mid-level lapse rates remain poor

across the region, so the bulk of the current instability is driven

by diurnal heating of a somewhat moist airmass (dewpoint

temperatures between 55F and 60F) and steepening low-level lapse

rates. This is evident by an increase in cumulus clouds along and

south of the front.



The expectation is that a combination of weak warm-air advection

between 850-700 millibars, convergence along the front, a little bit

more surface heating, and (later) an increasing low-level jet will

result in convective initiation in the next 1-3 hours along the

length of the front in Kansas. Effective-layer shear profiles in

excess of 40 knots will be supportive of thunderstorm organization,

with perhaps even transient supercellular characteristics occurring.

However, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit the potential for

parcel acceleration upward and temper the overall severe threat.

That said, severe hail or wind reports will be possible with the

strongest storms, especially those before sunset.



With time this evening, thunderstorm coverage should increase in

response to an increasing low-level jet. These storms will most

likely be rooted in the 850-700 millibar layer and may initially

pose a threat for hail or wind before either moving across the

surface boundary to the cool side or the CAPE reservoir is depleted

on the warm side.



Given the overall limited space and time nature of the severe

threat, a watch is not likely.



..Marsh/Gleason.. 10/05/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...



LAT...LON   37240006 37180104 37720155 38750032 40389764 40739660

            40569606 40199593 38069883 37240006



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN