Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

016

ACUS01 KWNS 030555

SWODY1

SPC AC 030553



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1253 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026



Valid 031200Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL

NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered wind damage and large hail are expected from parts of

Nebraska into Iowa Friday. Isolated to scattered severe storms are

also possible extending eastward from the northern/central Plains

into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic.



...Synopsis...

The flow across the central US will modify today, becoming more

zonal as height rises begin across the southern Rockies. Upper-level

ridging will continue across the eastern US. A surface front will

extend across the northern High Plains into the Midwest and Upper

Great Lakes. Several clusters of thunderstorms are expected to

develop in the vicinity of this boundary. Additional scattered

thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northeast to

the Mid-Atlantic and across the Tennessee Valley and northern

Georgia.



...Northern/Central Plains...

Modest westerly flow will remain across the northern/central Plains

this afternoon, with a shortwave trough rotating through the flow

across the Dakotas into Minnesota by the evening. Scattered

thunderstorm activity is expected along and near a surface boundary

extending from the western Dakotas into the Upper Midwest. A

reservoir of moderate to strong instability will remain amid a plume

of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. Initially, a few supercells

are likely, particularly near the Black Hills in South Dakota and

across the central Dakotas. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts and

aforementioned steep lapse rates will support potential for large to

very large hail. Eventual upscale growth into one or more bowing

clusters is expected towards the evening, especially as forcing for

ascent increases with the shortwave and increasing low-level jet in

the evening. Potential will also increase for a few significant

gusts 75+ mph, particularly across northeastern Nebraska into

western Iowa.



Additional isolated supercell development will be possible near the

surface trough and dry line from western Kansas into the

Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Forcing will be weaker in this region, but

a few instances of large hail and severe wind will be possible.



...Midwest to the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the

Northeast/Mid Atlantic...

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity will be possible across the

Midwest into the Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley in the vicinity of

residual outflow from overnight activity. Deep layer shear/flow will

be relatively weak but a moderately unstable and moist air mass will

support potential for a few clusters which produce swaths of

damaging wind.



A corridor of more favorable mid-level flow around 40-50 kts will

exist along the periphery of the ridge across the Northeast to the

northern Mid-Atlantic. Deep layer shear around 30-40 kts may support

one or more organized clusters with damaging wind potential into the

afternoon/early evening.



...TN Valley and northern GA...

Widely scattered thunderstorm activity is expected across portions

of the Tennessee Valley into northern Georgia this afternoon. Flow

across the region will be negligible but a very moist and unstable

air mass amid steep low to mid-level lapse rates will support

potential for wet downbursts.



..Thornton/Moore.. 07/03/2026



$$






                

                        

297

ACUS02 KWNS 030535

SWODY2

SPC AC 030533



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1233 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON

INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID

ATLANTIC AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau

into Mid Atlantic and across the central Great Plains Saturday

afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts.  Large

hail is also possible across the Great Plains



...Discussion...

Models indicate that a remnant mid-level high, now centered near or

just east the southern Appalachians, will become suppressed by the

beginning of this period.  A new high may become a bit more

prominent upstream, near and to the lee of the southern Rockies,

with ridging also building to its northwest, from portions of the

eastern Great Basin through portions of the mid Missouri Valley.  To

the east of this ridging, weak initially zonal flow may transition

to a broadly cyclonic regime across the Upper Midwest and lower

Missouri into Ohio Valleys.  Stronger westerlies are likely to

remain confined to higher latitudes, but one embedded larger-scale

trough is forecast to dig across the Canadian Maritimes and New

England Saturday through Saturday night.



In lower levels, more substantive cooling/drying may overspread much

of northern New England during the day, and perhaps the Adirondacks

vicinity and portions of the upper Great Lakes by late Saturday

night.  However, this may be preceded by a diffuse/weak front,

perhaps augmented by convective outflow is some locations, advancing

southward across the Mid Atlantic, Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys

and central Great Plains through the period.



Along and south of the lead front/convective outflow, a

boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content may

again become characterized by large potential instability with

daytime heating.  This will probably become supportive of widely

scattered to scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at

least some severe weather risk.  The magnitude/areal coverage of

this potential remains uncertain, and will largely be influenced by

sub-synoptic developments that are of low predictability at this

extended time frame, as evidenced by sizable model spread still

apparent in latest model output, including convection-allowing

guidance.



...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...

Potential convective evolution remains uncertain, with forcing for

ascent to support thunderstorm development unclear.  However, there

appears some general consensus in model output that at least

scattered thunderstorm development will initiate in response to

daytime boundary-layer destabilization across the Allegheny Plateau,

as mid-level heights subtly begin to fall.  This is forecast to

develop eastward across the Mid Atlantic by early evening.



Given the degree of instability forecast, and possibly a belt of

convectively augmented flow (including 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb

layer) spreading east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio

Valley vicinity, there appears potential for one or two organizing

clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts to evolve.



...Central Great Plains...

Given the possible general tendency for larger-scale mid-level

height rises across the Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, and

spread evident in model output, convective potential for this period

remains uncertain.  However, lingering convectively generated or

augmented perturbations within evolving northwesterly mid-level flow

 could support widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm

development, including a few supercells by early Saturday evening.

This may be focused in moistening southeasterly low-level flow

across parts of northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska, and near

a zone of strengthening differential heating on the southwestern

flank of a stalled outflow boundary across western into central

Kansas.



Warm advection and convergence near the nose of a nocturnally

strengthening southerly low-level jet, with boundary-layer

decoupling across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into

southwestern Kansas, seems to offer the best support for a possible

upscale growing cluster, which could maintain a risk for large hail

and strong to severe surface gusts into Saturday night.



..Kerr.. 07/03/2026



$$






                

                        

644

NWUS53 KAPX 022242

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

642 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



1054 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     5 SSW Brethren          44.23N 86.06W

07/01/2026                   Manistee           MI   Trained Spotter



            Delayed report; time estimated from radar.

            Spotter 5 miles SSW of Brethren reported a

            large tree fell and took down a power pole,

            resulting in power outage. Power was

            restored the next evening.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

355

FXUS63 KAPX 030355

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1155 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Thunderstorm chances later this evening and tonight, and again on

  Friday. Severe thunderstorm chances are low at this time.



- Warm, humid weather continues through Friday before highs

  return close to average for the holiday weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 329 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026



Pattern Synopsis:



A jet max embedded in large-scale zonal flow over the Great Lakes

will work east tonight as low-amplitude upper-level ridging slides

more squarely over the Upper Midwest heading into the holiday

weekend. A boundary draped across the region tonight and Friday

looks to sag south into Saturday as high pressure centered over

Hudson Bay noses into the Great Lakes, and potentially may center

itself more firmly overhead early next week as additional ridging

folds over from the west.



Forecast Details:



Primary focus continues to be on the potential for thunderstorms

across northern Michigan. Latest observations and guidance have

continued to decrease confidence in severe thunderstorms

materializing across the area through tonight -- which will be much-

welcomed for many after several rounds of impactful storms yesterday

and last night. These thoughts are also echoed by the Storm

Prediction Center as much of the area has been pulled out of the

Marginal Risk (1/5) with the removal of the Slight Risk (2/5) across

our far southwest with the latest outlook update.



Rain/thunder chances appear they will largely hold off over the next

several hours. Latest radar imagery has shown a broader precip

shield across central Wisconsin weakening over the last hour, and is

unlikely to reach the shoreline of northern Michigan. Better chances

for showers and storms are expected to move in later this evening

and tonight as surface-based instability builds across the southern

half of Wisconsin through the day, providing a more supportive

environment for upstream convection to develop/travel across into

the lower peninsula -- likely at or after sunset for northwest

lower. As noted above, while a few strong storms capable of

producing gusty winds and hail are possible, chances are low at this

time.



Looking ahead to Friday, a similar situation presents itself. While

there`s uncertainty in how potential showers/storms evolve through

the day, best chances for scattered showers and storms look to move

in late afternoon and evening across northern Michigan --

potentially throwing a wrench into holiday plans across the area.

Once again, a few stronger storms tomorrow may be capable of

producing gusty winds/hail, but expectation is that storms will

largely remain sub-severe through tomorrow night.



For the Fourth, aforementioned high pressure may help rain/storm

chances hold off across northern Michigan and focus better chances

to our south -- and perhaps Sunday through the first half of next

week. Another warm and humid day is expected Friday, especially near

Saginaw Bay where heat indices may push into the mid to upper 90s.

That said, some relief is in store this weekend with highs in mid

70s to mid 80s expected Saturday and Sunday -- which are close to

average highs for the start of July.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 1155 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026



Showers at MBL/TVC overnight, perhaps expanding to the other

sites with time. Precip is still falling out of a mid-cloud

deck, and any restrictions should be brief. And any TSRA chances

are looking remote. Fog is unlikely due to increasing cloud

cover. Some cu flares up Friday, with APN having the best chance

at an afternoon shower/storm. Light winds.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DJC

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

180

ACUS11 KWNS 030727

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 030726

NEZ000-COZ000-030930-



Mesoscale Discussion 1464

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0226 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026



Areas affected...Parts of southwest NE and northeast CO



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 030726Z - 030930Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Isolated hail and strong to locally severe gusts are

possible overnight.



DISCUSSION...A band of storms has intensified early this morning

from northeast CO into southwest NE. Model-based soundings suggest

that this activity is based around 700 mb, with intensifying

low-level southerly flow from the KGLD VWP indicative of a

strengthening warm-advection regime. Steep midlevel lapse rates and

MUCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg will result in a hail threat with

the strongest updrafts, though modest deep-layer shear and a

generally linear storm mode may temper this potential to some

extent. Localized strong to severe gusts also cannot be ruled out,

given the presence of a relatively dry boundary layer and potential

for strong downdrafts.



Short-term guidance suggests that this band of storms will continue

to move north-northeastward with time, with an isolated severe

threat potentially spreading across the southern NE Panhandle and a

larger portion of southwest NE.



..Dean/Mosier.. 07/03/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...



LAT...LON   40320402 40610380 41200351 41210236 41120049 40890009

            40439990 40209994 40020055 40100121 40250187 40470256

            40270370 40320402



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN








                

                        

426

WGUS53 KAPX 291848

FFWAPX

MIC031-292145-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FF.W.0018.260629T1848Z-260629T2145Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/



BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

Flash Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

248 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a



* Flash Flood Warning for...

  West Central Cheboygan County in northern Michigan...



* Until 545 PM EDT.



* At 248 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing

  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 3.5 inches of

  rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 1 inch are

  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected

  to begin shortly.



  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.



  SOURCE...Radar.



  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban

           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as

           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.



* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...

  Mullet Lake and Riggsville.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.



In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are

potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded

roads. Find an alternate route.



Flooding is occurring or is imminent. It is important to know where

you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become

killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or

creeks.



Please report observed flooding to local emergency services or law

enforcement and request they pass this information to the National

Weather Service when you can do so safely.



&&



LAT...LON 4548 8473 4551 8473 4552 8473 4554 8473

      4558 8473 4557 8453 4551 8453



FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED



$$



NSC






                

                        

455

WGUS43 KAPX 292357

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

757 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



MIC009-029-302345-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FA.W.0015.260629T2357Z-260630T2345Z/

/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Antrim MI-Charlevoix MI-

757 PM EDT Mon Jun 29 2026



...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM EDT TUESDAY...



* WHAT...Small stream and river flooding caused by excessive

  rainfall is expected or occurring.



* WHERE...A portion of northern Michigan, including the following

  counties, Antrim and Charlevoix along the Jordan River.



* WHEN...Until 745 PM EDT Tuesday.



* IMPACTS...Flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying

  and flood-prone locations is imminent or occurring. Numerous roads

  remain closed due to flooding near or adjacent to the Jordan

  River. Streams and rivers continue to rise due to excess runoff

  from earlier rainfall. Expect many areas of slow moving or

  standing water.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 747 PM EDT, the Jordan River continues to rise due to

    heavy rainfall earlier on Monday.  Flooding is ongoing or

    expected to begin shortly in the warned area adjacent to the

    Jordan River. Locations that are not flooded at this moment

    may become inundated as the the river continues to rise.

  - Some locations that will experience flooding include...

    East Jordan and Chestonia.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts can become

unstable and unsafe.



In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are

potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded

roads. Find an alternate route.



&&



LAT...LON 4514 8514 4516 8514 4513 8512 4508 8508

      4507 8507 4506 8507 4505 8507 4506 8508

      4508 8509 4511 8512





$$



JLD






                

                        

103

WGUS83 KAPX 020923

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

523 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026



MIC019-055-079-089-020933-

/O.EXP.KAPX.FA.Y.0023.000000T0000Z-260702T0915Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Benzie MI-Grand Traverse MI-Kalkaska MI-Leelanau MI-

523 AM EDT Thu Jul 2 2026



...FLOOD ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...



The Flood Advisory has expired for a portion of northern Michigan,

including the following areas, Benzie, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska and

Leelanau.



The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a

threat.



&&



LAT...LON 4473 8619 4476 8609 4492 8607 4492 8599

      4495 8597 4498 8592 4496 8582 4486 8559

      4486 8548 4477 8555 4489 8542 4489 8538

      4483 8537 4482 8533 4476 8533 4471 8546

      4467 8619





$$



MSB