Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

524

ACUS01 KWNS 032002

SWODY1

SPC AC 032000



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0200 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026



Valid 032000Z - 041200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER

MS/TN VALLEYS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and

perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and

tonight from the Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into

the Mid Mississippi Valley.



...Ark-La-Miss this afternoon into the TN Valley overnight...

Only minor adjustments to the outlook to reflect eastward

progression since mid morning. The primary midlevel trough is

pivoting northeastward toward IA, while an embedded speed max in the

base of the trough moves eastward toward the Ark-La-Miss.  The

strongest storms have been focused in advance of the speed max and

along the north edge of the 70+ F boundary-layer dewpoints and

associated MLCAPE near or above 1000 J/kg (per mesoanalysis and the

18z LCH sounding).  A few supercell structures and bowing segments

have been observed across northwest LA and this activity is expected

to spread eastward to the Ark-La-Miss through this evening.

Low-level flow/shear has likely peaked already in the warm sector

with a little weakening expected into this evening as the primary

shortwave trough moves northeastward away from the richer low-level

moisture.  Still, there will be the potential for isolated wind

damage and a tornado or two with embedded circulations this

afternoon and continuing into tonight as weak buoyancy develops

eastward with additional moisture return toward the northwest AL

area.



...Mid MS Valley through this evening...

Buoyancy remains limited into the mid MS Valley as a result of poor

midlevel lapse rates and widespread clouds/rain.  There is a narrow

corridor of surface heating on the nose of the dry slot from

northern MO into southern IA, where an isolated/low-topped supercell

may occur.  Otherwise, embedded line segments with isolated wind

damage could occur into this evening, though the poor buoyancy

suggests this threat is on the lower margins for an outlook area.



..Thompson.. 11/03/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026/



... Synopsis ...



A midlevel cyclone over the southern Plains this morning will

continue to slowly deepen today as it lifts northeast toward the

upper Midwest. An associated surface cyclone over northeast Kansas

this morning will lift northeast into eastern Iowa during the day

before pivoting north then northwestward overnight as it occludes.

At the same time, an attendant surface baroclinic zone will push

east across the southern Plains today, with an appreciable moist

plume on the east side of the baroclinic zone.



Morning water vapor imagery shows a pronounced shortwave trough

entering the basal region of the longer-wave trough in which the

midlevel cyclone resides. As this shortwave trough exits the basal

region later today, it will take on an increasingly negative tilt

and southerly midlevel flow above the Lower and Mid-Mississippi

valleys will be sustained. In response to the evolving mid- and

upper-level kinematic fields, the low-level jet will be sustained

and move northeast, tied to the progress of the negatively tilted

trough.





... East Texas toward the Lower Mississippi Valley ...



Thunderstorms are ongoing this morning within the broad moist plume

ahead of the aforementioned baroclinic zone. Within this moist

plume, weak midlevel lapse rates and a modest low-level theta-e

airmass has held instability in check today -- generally less than

1000 J/kg. Given low-level moisture trajectories, widespread cloud

cover ahead of the advancing baroclinic zone, and weak lapse rates

upstream of the region, instability should not really recover much

today.



That said, low-level and large-scale forcing for ascent will

continue to support convection through the afternoon and into the

overnight hours. The strength of the kinematic fields will yield

some tornado/wind potential within the various convective bands --

especially where any low-level instability can develop.

Additionally, transient supercell or supercell-like thunderstorms

may develop ahead of the line within the broad warm-air advection

regime. These shallow, but rotating, thunderstorms will also pose at

least some potential for tornado/wind damage as well.



This threat should continue into the overnight hours across portions

of western Tennessee and western Kentucky, especially if a zone of

more discrete showers/thunderstorms can develop within the nocturnal

low-level jet.





... Mid-Mississippi Valley ...



As the surface-low deepens this afternoon and evening, strong

low-level wind fields will be maintained or even strengthen,

yielding ESRH on the order of 250-350 m2/s2. As strong southerly

midlevel flow is sustained in response to the approaching midlevel

shortwave trough, effective-layer shear in excess of 50 knots will

be maintained or overspread much of the region. This far north,

instability will be even more limited than compared to areas farther

south. However, convergence along the surface front and large-scale

ascent from the midlevel wave will support bands of forced

convection during the day and into the evening. The strong kinematic

fields may be sufficient to offset the meager buoyancy and support a

potential for isolated tornado/wind damage.



$$






                

                        

135

ACUS02 KWNS 031718

SWODY2

SPC AC 031716



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1116 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026



Valid 041200Z - 051200Z



...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms are unlikely on Wednesday.



...Southeast States...

A broad upper trough will continue to move slowly eastward across

the central/eastern states on Wednesday, with a potent shortwave

trough affecting the southern Appalachians.  Thunderstorms will

likely be ongoing at 12z Wednesday morning over middle TN and

northern AL, with activity persisting and moving eastward into parts

of east TN/GA/western Carolinas through the afternoon.  Strong flow

aloft may result in localized damaging wind gusts, but instability

will be very weak.  A small 5% wind area was considered for

northeast AL/northwest GA, but given the weak CAPE fields will defer

to later updates.



..Hart.. 11/03/2026



$$






                

                        

595

NWUS53 KAPX 291424

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1024 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0145 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SW Frankfort          44.63N 86.25W

10/29/2026  M40 MPH                             Lake Mesonet



            Wind gust at Frankfort Light.



&&



$$

FEF










                

                        

740

FXUS63 KAPX 031934

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

234 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mild temperatures through Wednesday, cooling closer to

  seasonal normals for the end of the week.



- Rain continues periodically through late week with occasional

  rumbles of thunder possible.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 234 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026



The upper level pattern this afternoon features deep troughing

over the central CONUS acquiring a slight negative tilt as it

lifts from the central Plains towards the Upper Mississippi

River Valley, with difluent flow out ahead of it over the Upper

Great Lakes. At the surface, an elongated trough spans from the

central Plains to Lake Superior, with rain showers ongoing

along and ahead of an associated frontal zone from Wisconsin

into Upper Michigan. As such, the bulk of precipitation over our

area today has been confined to the eastern U.P. while the

northern Lower has remained mostly dry. The best precipitation

chances will remain over the eastern U.P. and northwestern Lower

through into tonight as a surface low tracks from the eastern

Dakotas to western Lake Superior, with locations east of US-131

staying mostly dry into Wednesday morning. Expect fairly minimal

precipitation amounts through tonight as the best forcing

resides to the north and west, with a tenth to a quarter inch

of rain possible for the eastern U.P. and generally less than a

tenth across the northern Lower.



Northern Michigan remains in the warm sector through Wednesday,

allowing for another seasonably warm day with highs in the mid

to upper 60s across most of the area. Rain looks to spread back

into the area from the south and west in the afternoon as a

secondary surface low lifts into the Upper MS River Valley and

swings a front across Lower Michigan. Precipitable water values

will remain well above an inch, near the climatological max for

early November, into the afternoon. However, precipitation

amounts still look rather limited as the better forcing remains

displaced to the west through most of the day.



Showery weather persists into Thursday as the upper low

meanders over the Upper MS River Valley and then phases with a

northern stream shortwave crossing Hudson Bay, finally shifting

the trough eastward into the Great Lakes. High temperatures

will subsequently drop closer to seasonal norms in the 50s as

850 mb temps cool close to 0 C over the eastern U.P. and 3-5 C

over the northern Lower by Thursday evening. Cool and showery

weather lingers into Friday as the upper low remains over Lower

Michigan, with continued cold air advection dropping high into

the 40s for Friday afternoon. There is some indication of drier

weather for the weekend as troughing shifts eastward and

surface high pressure builds in from the west, allowing temps to

rebound back into the 50s by Sunday and early next week.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1257 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026



IFR/LIFR conditions persist for most sites through the first part of

the 18Z TAF period, with CIU being the most restricted (LIFR

anticipated till 12Z tomorrow) and APN being the least restricted

(MVFR lifting to VFR by ~21Z). This is thanks to system clouds &

moisture associated with elongated troughing stretched out across

the northwest edge of the CWA. In general, conditions should improve

at least one category (to MVFR/VFR) during the middle of the TAF

period prior to deteriorating tomorrow afternoon. With VIS less

of a concern, restrictions are driven by low CIGS with

accompanying -SH/- SHRA. All TAF sites include long-lived

periods of LLWS to 25-35 kt overnight tonight as a LLJ takes up

residence overhead. Surface winds tend to remain light during

this time as stability is not conducive to mixing.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LHZ349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for LMZ323-

     341-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MQT

AVIATION...MQT






                

                        

984

ACUS11 KWNS 031742

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 031741

LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-031915-



Mesoscale Discussion 2441

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1141 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026



Areas affected...east Texas...northwest Louisiana...and far southern

Arkansas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 031741Z - 031915Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...A weak tornado threat may continue across northwest

Louisiana and vicinity.



DISCUSSION...A few weak supercells have evolved out of the cluster

of storms this morning across east Texas and northwest Louisiana.

These storms are north of the greater instability, but are within a

zone of more favorable low-level shear. These storms have been

sufficiently strong for a few radar confirmed tornadoes, despite

very weak (<20 knot) vRot based on KSHV SRV data. Therefore, while

the overall environment seems to limit the overall ability for

strong low-level mesoscyclones to develop, there does seem to be

sufficient low-level shear and stretching to produce tornadoes with

any supercells that develop.



Expect additional supercell development this afternoon as

heating/destabilization increases. However, the low-level jet is

expected to weaken through the afternoon which may bring an end to

the seemingly perfect balance for a few tornado producing storms

this morning. Due to this uncertainty in the continuation of the

threat, a tornado watch is not expected. However, if this trend of

storms being efficient tornado producers continues, a watch may be

needed.



..Bentley/Marsh.. 11/03/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...



LAT...LON   31909453 32579414 33429370 33529322 33309256 32779246

            32149269 31419308 31109376 31329443 31529465 31909453



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH