Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

176

ACUS01 KWNS 041233

SWODY1

SPC AC 041231



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0731 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025



Valid 041300Z - 051200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE

EAST AND THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated damaging winds are possible across parts of the Northeast

to the southern Appalachians and Tennessee Valley from late morning

through the afternoon.  Isolated severe gusts are possible across

parts of the middle Missouri Valley late this afternoon into the

early evening.



...Southern Appalachians/TN Valley to the Northeast...

Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning

from the Lower Great Lakes southward into the southern Appalachians.

Water-vapor imagery shows a vertically stacked cyclone over Ontario

with a disturbance rotating through the basal portion of the larger

scale trough.  This mid-level feature will quickly move from the

upper OH Valley into the NY/central Appalachians by the late

afternoon.



Despite weak mid-level lapse rates, some diurnal heating ahead of

this activity should yield gradual intensification of thunderstorms

and increased storm coverage by late morning across parts of the

southern Appalachians.  Locally damaging winds and marginally severe

hail are possible, centered on the eastern TN vicinity.



Isolated to scattered multicell clusters and short-line segments may

also evolve in the afternoon from convection along/ahead of the cold

front and lee trough.  Weak MLCAPE and poor mid-level lapse rates

will temper convective vigor, with damaging wind potential locally

augmented to where pockets of deeper boundary-layer heating occur.



...Mid-MO Valley...

An intense mid-level speed max/shortwave trough will quickly move

from the southern part of the Prairie provinces into the mid MO

Valley by this afternoon, before moving into the southwest Great

Lakes by early Friday morning.  Some model spread exists on the

magnitude of destabilization immediately ahead of a cold front

forecast to sweep through the region late this afternoon into the

evening.  However, weak buoyancy appears likely to develop and

low-level lapse rates may become adequately steep to support a

narrow corridor of low-topped storms capable of isolated severe

gusts.



...KS...

An accelerating and sharpening cold front will sweep south across

the central High/Great Plains tonight. Undercut/elevated convection

should form to the cold side of this boundary early Friday morning.

Locally strong surface gusts may accompany this activity amid robust

low-level northerlies.



..Smith/Bentley.. 09/04/2025



$$






                

                        

694

ACUS02 KWNS 040602

SWODY2

SPC AC 040600



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0100 AM CDT Thu Sep 04 2025



Valid 051200Z - 061200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM

NORTHERN TEXAS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN OHIO...



...SUMMARY...

Strong thunderstorms will be possible from the southern Plains into

the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys during the afternoon into the

overnight hours. Isolated large hail and damaging winds may be

possible with the strongest storms.



... Synopsis ...



A seasonably strong/cold midlevel low will persist across Ontario,

with an attendant larger-scale trough persisting across much of the

eastern United States. A potent midlevel shortwave trough will be

across the Upper Great Lakes at the start of the period and will

quickly rotate around the upper low into Quebec through the period.

In its wake a midlevel ribbon of higher vorticity will be left

behind from Iowa northeast across Michigan.  Upstream from this, the

midlevel height field will begin to respond to another shortwave

trough rotating around the Ontario low.



At the surface, a surface low will quickly lift northeast from

northern Michigan through Ontario and into Quebec through the

forecast period. A cold from will extend southwest from this low and

will push south and east as the surface low lifts northeast.

Although somewhat diffuse initially, the temperature gradient across

the cold front will rapidly strengthen through the day.



... Ohio and Tennessee Valleys ...



Diurnal heating should allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the

80Fs and 90Fs across the region. Given surface dewpoint temperatures

in the mid 60Fs perhaps as far north as southern Ohio, this heating

will result in most-unstable CAPE values in excess of 2000 J/kg

across the area. The region will also be on the periphery of the

stronger midlevel flow, yield effective shear of around 40 knots.



Thunderstorms should develop by late afternoon in response to

increasing large-scale ascent associated with both differential

vorticity advection and frontal circulations. Given the degree of

instability and effective layer shear, initial thunderstorms may

exhibit supercellular structures. However, given the

temperature-dewpoint spreads on the order of 20F+ the expectation is

that thunderstorms should tend to favor upscale growth toward linear

segments. As such, thunderstorms may initially pose a hail threat,

especially across western Kentucky and Tennessee, but should

transition to more of a wind threat with eastward extent.



Across portions of Kentucky and southern Ohio, a short-window,

conditional tornado threat may evolve as thunderstorms develop in

the vicinity of the surface boundary. As thunderstorms interact with

or cross over the boundary, strong northeasterly surface winds will

enlarge low-level hodographs supporting at least some tornado

threat.



... Greater Arklatex Region ...



The surface cold front across the region is expected to strengthen

during the day as it slowly moves south. During the evening into the

overnight hours, strong warm-air advection on the nose of a

strengthening low-level jet may support thunderstorm development on

the cool side of the cold front. Despite surface temperatures in the

60Fs and low 70Fs, steep mid-level lapse rates atop the colder

surface layer may support isolated large hail.



..Marsh.. 09/04/2025



$$






                

                        

271

NWUS53 KAPX 032350

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

750 PM EDT Wed Sep 3 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0730 PM     Rain             4 NNE Honor             44.72N 85.99W

09/03/2025  M1.10 Inch       Benzie             MI   Trained Spotter



            12hr rainfall total from near Honor in

            Benzie county, through 730pm.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

019

FXUS63 KAPX 041053

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

653 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Periods of lake effect rain showers through the next several days



- Gusty winds and gales late tonight into Friday



- Cold temps hang on through the weekend



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025



PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:



Deep upper low swirling over northern Lake Superior attm (541dm at

500mb), with strong north to northwesterly flow in its wake across

much of the central US/Midwest. Plume of moisture along the

baroclinic zone (and it is very baroclinic, with surface temps in

the 60s ahead of it...and 40s behind it) from the surface low near

James Bay, down through the OH valley into the south central Plains

as a cold front. It then wraps back northward along the Rockies into

Saskatchewan...where another system is in the works with another

strong punch of PV dropping out of north central Canada. Cold high

pressure over the northern Plains attm...with broad area under the

influence of 0C isotherm at 850mb; -4C at 850 is just to our north

over Ontario.



Another lobe of PV swings through early today, dragging another

surface trough across the area. This should be quick-

moving...already swinging on out by 18z, though some subtle niblets

in its wake could keep things perturbed enough to squeeze out a

little more lake effect rain than expected this afternoon. Flow to

back more southwesterly today...ahead of another PV maxima digging

into the Northern Plains today. Expectation is for this to plow

across MN and WI tonight, knocking on our door by early Friday

morning, with a strengthening surface low to boot...which will bump

up southwesterly flow even more for tonight into Friday.



Primary Forecast Concerns through Tonight:



Periods of lake effect rain showers...Expect periods of lake effect

rain showers today as niblets pivot through...initially west-flow

oriented, but becoming southwest-flow oriented as we go into late

afternoon and tonight ahead of the next system. With moisture aloft

sneaking in late today/tonight, do have to wonder if it will be able

to seeder-feeder any better returns...though it is possible the mid-

level dry layer could be too firm to do much till the deeper

moisture through the column moves in late. For now, expecting

highest rainfall totals across the central and into eastern UP late

tonight, which attm appears to be closest to best forcing for

longest. Decent signals in probabilistic guidance again (40-50

percent) of at least an inch of rain in this region (potentially in

6-hrs) by Friday mid-morning. A few rumbles of thunder aren`t

impossible, as we`ll be cold enough to have ice nucleation, but

nothing dramatic by any means...though with winds aloft staying

generally weaker, waterspouts will remain a threat into tonight

before winds start to become too strong aloft in advance of the next

system.



Increasing winds...southwest winds should start to pick up late

tonight, particularly after 6z, as the low-level jet aloft swirls in

closer. Expect the first gales of the season, as winds aloft ramp up

to 35-45kts at 850mb late tonight. Probabilistic wind guidance

suggests high confidence in winds 25-35kts late tonight into Friday

morning; low but non-zero potential for gusts over 40-45kts during

the early morning hours, particularly near the Lake Michigan where

friction will be minimized. Low pressure should be a quick hitter,

already swinging northeastward by late morning/midday...which in

theory should allow gales to wind down on the Lake Michigan

waters/coast a bit quicker than points eastward...which should hold

onto stronger winds later in the day ahead of the front.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 414 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025



Days 2-3 (Friday-Saturday)...



Lobe of PV and attendant tightly-wound surface low drive across

northern Michigan early Friday...lifting northeastward into Ontario

through the day. Will expect strong southwest winds ahead of the low

to become strong west to northwest winds in its wake Friday

afternoon. Parade of PV maxima then look to swirl around the

perimeter of longwave troughing through the Upper Midwest and Great

Lakes Friday night through Saturday night...keeping things unsettled

through the end of the week.



Strong winds continue Friday...Some 30+kt winds could mix down to

the surface over land as well during the morning in particular...on

top of sustained winds likely running 15-25kts, highest closest to

the coast. Not impossible some areas could end up with a wind

advisory, as it will be close...and as mentioned above, there is low

but non-zero potential for gusts as high as 45kts near the Lake

Michigan coast during the morning hours. As for the Sunrise Side and

Lake Huron coast...currently think the strongest winds will hold off

till closer to 12z or later. Will be something to watch closely,

though, as there is still a bit of fine tuning of the low track to

be had, which could impact the position/timing of the strongest

winds.



Days 4-7 (Sunday-Wednesday)...



Attm...appears last lobe of PV swings through Sunday...with rising

heights generally expected going into late Sunday/Sunday night,

though upper low tries to make one last grab for the EUP as it heads

eastward going into Monday. Surface high pressure should generally

be on the increase for the start of next week, which has potential

to lead to some radiational cooling and frost/freeze potential for

any areas that manage to break out of the lake-induced cloud cover.

We may actually have a break in the action overall Monday...with the

expectation of southwesterly flow picking up across the central

US/Midwest going into midweek...as ridging currently looks to build

eastward toward us through the week. This suggests potential for us

to trend more toward normal again, temperature wise.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 653 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025



Mainly VFR thru this evening, with light lake effect rain

showers possible at times today (mainly PLN). Chilly air will

remain in the area. Some cu/stratocu will be seen, but mainly

VFR. Conditions will worsen late tonight, as an incoming

reinforcing cold front brings showers, lower cigs, and windier

conditions. MVFR conditions at PLN/CIU very late tonight. LLWS

possible at the very tail end of the TAF at TVC and perhaps

others.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through

     this evening for MIZ016-099.

MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for

     LHZ345>349.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM to noon EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342-

     344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for

     LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...FEF

LONG TERM...FEF

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

564

ACUS11 KWNS 040021

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 040020

KSZ000-040115-



Mesoscale Discussion 2029

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0720 PM CDT Wed Sep 03 2025



Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605...



Valid 040020Z - 040115Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 605

continues.



SUMMARY...Supercell capable of large to very large hail will

continue to move southward.



DISCUSSION...A supercell that has produced numerous large hail

reports including hail up to baseball size (2.75"). Recent reports

of winds 60-70 mph have been reported as well, suggesting potential

for wind driven hail. It appears this supercell will be sustained

downstream for the next hour or so, given the favorable environment

with ample MLCAPE, deep layer shear, and steep lapse rates. Hail 2-3

inches and gusts 60-70 mph will be possible. A second supercell is

also tracking southward behind the lead cell and will also be

capable of large hail and damaging wind.



..Thornton.. 09/04/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...ICT...



LAT...LON   37739768 37549759 37359746 37259735 37189712 37179679

            37269652 37529654 37829672 38079687 38369713 38319741

            38309766 38239787 37999779 37739768



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN