Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

981

ACUS01 KWNS 221936

SWODY1

SPC AC 221934



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0234 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026



Valid 222000Z - 231200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

NORTHWEST TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts are possible late

this afternoon into the evening in parts of the southern High

Plains.  A few brief tornadoes are also possible across the Mid

South.



...20z Update...



Only minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal (level 1 of 5)

risk across southwest Kansas based on the current location of the

surface cold front. Scattered thunderstorms will increase across the

southern High Plains late this afternoon into this evening, posing a

risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail.



Across the TN Valley vicinity, sporadic rotating storms may persist

another couple of hours and a brief tornado is possible. However,

the 30-40 kt low-level jet will continue to shift northward with

time and away from the axis of stronger instability. Otherwise,

sporadic gusty winds are possible through evening. For more short

term details, reference MCDs 825 and 826.



..Leitman.. 05/22/2026



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026/



...TX/OK...

A weak upper trough is moving across CO today, with the tail end of

large scale forcing spreading across the TX Panhandle.  At the

surface, southeasterly winds will maintain a moist air mass into the

region, where a dryline will become the focus for afternoon

thunderstorm development.  Weak mid-level winds of 20-30 knots

suggest that storms will be a mix of multicell and supercell

structures capable of large hail and damaging winds.  Merging

outflows are expected as activity spreads eastward into western OK

and eventually north TX tonight, with a continued risk of locally

damaging winds.



...Northeast NE/KS/Northwest OK...

A cold front is sagging southeastward into KS/NE, where a moist and

moderately unstable air mass will be present this afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of the front, with

a low-end risk of hail in the stronger cells.



...TN/MS/AL/GA...

A broad area of moderately strong southerly low-level winds are

present today over parts of the Mid-South and TN Valley, along with

a very moist air mass with dewpoints in the 70s.  Forecast soundings

show rather weak CAPE, but sufficient low-level shear for some

concern for tornadoes today.  There have been occasional

mesocyclones in the thunderstorms in this region, and that will

likely continue through the afternoon as the low-level jet shifts

northward into northern AL/middle TN.  Overall confidence in the

tornado threat suggests the threat remains Marginal, but a tactical

upgrade to portions of the area remains possible this afternoon.



$$






                

                        

544

ACUS02 KWNS 221730

SWODY2

SPC AC 221728



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1228 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026



Valid 231200Z - 241200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF

THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...TEXAS HILL COUNTRY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS

AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST...GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...PARTS

OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to potentially severe storms appear possible on

Saturday from the Raton Mesa vicinity into the Oklahoma and Texas

Panhandles and southward near the middle Texas Coast. Additional

severe thunderstorms will be possible in portions of central Georgia

and parts of the Upper Ohio Valley.



...Southern High Plains...

Moderate mid-level flow across the central Rockies will persist in

the wake of a shortwave trough lifting into the northern Plains.

Flow will generally weaken with southern extent into the High

Plains. Even so, moist southeasterly winds into the higher terrain

will promote effective shear around 35 kt. The main question will be

the quality of the moisture with convection expected to impact parts

of the region on Friday evening into the overnight. The most likely

scenario is that isolated storm development occur within the Raton

Mesa and evolves eastward/southeastward. Storms would be initially

supercells capable of large hail and severe winds. Shear does weaken

to the east so some clustering is possible as outflow interact.

Another possibility, though more uncertain, is that convection could

develop farther southeast along a remnant outflow boundary, but this

activity would likely move into an environment with weaker shear

quickly.



...Upper Ohio Valley...

A shortwave trough now in the Mid-South will lift northeast into the

Ohio Valley/Great Lakes on Saturday. A modest surface low, though

slowly weakening with time, will pull upper 60s F dewpoints into

parts of the region. Morning precipitation is expected to clear out

and allow for at least filtered surface heating. The enhanced 850 mb

winds, proximity to the warm front, and modest effective shear

(around 30 kt) could potentially support a stronger storm or two.

Though conditional, a brief tornado would be possible in this

environment.



...Georgia/South Carolina...

A weak shortwave trough will move into Georgia. Low 70s F dewpoints

and temperatures in the 80s F will support 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE

despite weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous storms

appear possible near the shortwave as well as along the wedge front

in South Carolina. Shear will be weak, but a few water-loaded

downbursts may produce damaging winds.



...Hill Country/South Texas/Middle Texas Coast...

A shortwave trough within the subtropical jet will approach the

region during the afternoon/early evening. A very moist (70+

dewpoints) airmass will be in place. Isolated to widely scattered

convection will be possible from the Rio Grande vicinity and perhaps

along the Gulf Breeze front. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and steep

low/mid-level lapse rates will support the threat of large hail and

severe winds.



..Wendt.. 05/22/2026



$$






                

                        

303

NWUS53 KAPX 182256

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

656 PM EDT Mon May 18 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0646 PM     Rain             1 SSE Barton City       44.66N 83.59W

05/18/2026  M1.40 Inch       Alcona             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station BCYM4 Barton City. 6 hour

            total.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

577

FXUS63 KAPX 222336

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

736 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Increasing shower chances and a cool start to the Holiday Weekend.



- Perhaps a few linger showers Sunday gives way to a warm and dry

Memorial Day.



- Trends support above normal temperatures continuing into at

  least Tuesday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 127 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:



Shortwave ridging centered southeast to northwest across the Great

Lakes early this afternoon...with its surface reflection centered

just to our northeast along the Ontario/Quebec border. Elevated

moisture plume spreading northeast within overhead ridging, part of

upper level southwest flow between that overhead ridging and dual

upstream shortwave troughs...one located over Missouri with the

other rotating across the Dakotas. Lack of low level moisture...as

evident by surface relative humidity values tanking below 30

percent...helping keep conditions dry despite some elevated returns

on regional radars. Still a bit on the cool side of normal as we

approach the last week of May, with current readings in the 50s and

60s.



Upstream shortwave troughs will continue their northeast journey,

with that Missouri wave eventually cutting up across lower Michigan

on Saturday. Nice tropical moisture feed with this wave, with the

main axis of this deep moisture advection slated to center off to

our south and east to kick off the Holiday weekend. Ridging expected

to build back overhead heading through the beginning of next week,

with growing evidence this becomes part of central NOAM centered

omega block... suggesting this upper level high may stayed locked in

across the western Great Lakes/northern Plains for several days.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Shower evolution tonight into Saturday followed by temperature

trends next week.



Details:



Deepest forcing and greatest deep layer moisture convergence largely

center both east (tied to Missouri wave) and west (Dakota wave) of

northern Michigan tonight and Saturday. Dprog`s/Dt`s of nearly all

available guidance is a southeast adjustment to main channel of

deepest subtropical moisture with that southern wave...focusing into

the southern and eastern Great Lakes. Still expecting some

deformation driven light rain to spread northeast...likely targeting

our southeast footprint for better rain chances later tonight into

Saturday. Not expecting much rain, with most areas receiving well

under a quarter of an inch. Those clouds and showers will again keep

temperatures several degrees below normal for Saturday, coolest

across northeast lower Michigan where gusty southeast winds of Lake

Huron will keep readings in the 50s. Perhaps a few light shower

again on Sunday as southern extent of that northern wave spreads

overhead. Again, any shower activity should remain minimal given

decaying forcing and a complete exit of deeper moisture well off to

our east.



Sure looks like summer makes an entrance into at least the beginning

stages of next week as that ridging/heat dome expands north...with

high temperatures returning into the 70s and 80 Monday and Tuesday.

Questions do enter the picture the second half of the week, with at

least some evidence for slight retrogression to long-wave features...

allowing northeast NOAM centered troughing (part of that omega block

mentioned earlier) to establish more influence on our weather. If

this occurs we can expect temperatures to be significantly cooler

than what is currently advertised in our forecast. Plenty of time to

see how this all unfolds in the coming days.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 636 PM EDT Fri May 22 2026



Cloud cover will thicken and lower thru this forecast period.

Cigs will reach MVFR at APN Sat morning, and IFR in the

afternoon. MVFR cigs reach the other TAF sites in the afternoon

(except staying VFR at TVC) Rain showers will eventually push

into ne lower MI on Saturday. Do have -SHRA reaching APN late

in the day. Breezy easterly winds thru the forecast.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement from Saturday morning through Saturday

     evening for MIZ017-018-024-030-036-042-088-096-097.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for LHZ345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for LHZ346>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Saturday for LMZ341-342.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...MSB

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

399

ACUS11 KWNS 222305

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 222305

TXZ000-230030-



Mesoscale Discussion 0829

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0605 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026



Areas affected...portions of the Lower Texas Coastline



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 222305Z - 230030Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...An isolated supercell will pose a risk for large hail,

damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a brief tornado. Watch issuance is

unlikely at this time.



DISCUSSION...An isolated supercell has recently developed along a

coastal sea breeze to the south of Corpus Christi. Nearby surface

observations indicate temperatures are in the mid/upper 80s with

dewpoints in the upper 70s F within this maritime air mass, with

warmer and marginally drier surface conditions observed inland of

the sea breeze. Coupled with steep mid-level lapse rates (as sampled

by the 18z CRP observed sounding), this is contributing to 3000-4000

(locally up to 4500) J/kg MLCAPE per latest objective analysis.

Strong westerly flow aloft associated with the subtropical jet is

supporting 40-50 kts of effective shear across South Texas, with

relatively straight hodographs favoring supercells capable of large

hail (perhaps to 2-3+" in diameter) and damaging/severe wind gusts.

A brief tornado also cannot be ruled out, especially should this

cell interact with the backed, southeasterly surface flow within the

moister maritime air mass.



It remains uncertain as to how long this cell will persist, but it

appears plausible that it could be maintained for at least another

hour or two. Bunkers right-motion suggests that a gradual motion to

the east-southeast may result in an offshore track; however, there

is potential for this cell to instead propagate southward along the

sea breeze. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time given the

expectation for the severe risk to remain isolated spatially and

temporally, but trends will continue to be monitored.



..Chalmers/Thompson.. 05/22/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...



LAT...LON   26929728 26769727 26679727 26599737 26589758 26669779

            26849792 27139791 27369779 27409754 27279733 26929728



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN