488

ACUS01 KWNS 200055

SWODY1

SPC AC 200053



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0653 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026



Valid 200100Z - 201200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not forecast across the U.S. today or tonight.



...DISCUSSION...

A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will remain in place across the

U.S. this evening and tonight. At the surface, a cold and dry

airmass within a large area of high pressure will be in place over

much of the nation. As a result, thunderstorms will not develop

across the continental U.S. through daybreak on Tuesday.



..Broyles.. 01/20/2026



$$






                

                        

031

ACUS02 KWNS 191707

SWODY2

SPC AC 191706



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026



Valid 201200Z - 211200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through

Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent.



...Discussion...

Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath

large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America

(across and east of the Rockies).  While little change in amplitude

is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an

initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia

and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening.  As a

developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of

this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it

appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical

eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central

Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night.



...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex...

It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing

lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late

Tuesday through Tuesday night.  This is likely to mainly emanate

from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a

modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels.  While

forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing

layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to

negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection

capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas

coastal areas.



..Kerr.. 01/19/2026



$$






                

                        

454

NWUS53 KAPX 200115

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

815 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0710 PM     Snow             2 ENE Maple City        44.86N 85.83W

01/19/2026  M7.4 Inch        Leelanau           MI   CO-OP Observer



            CO-OP Observer station MAPM4 Maple City 1 E.

            24-hr total ending 7pm.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

666

FXUS63 KAPX 192342

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

642 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Lake effect snow and cold tonight/Tuesday.



- More widespread mostly light snow Tuesday night/Wednesday but

  lake enhancement probable.



- Coldest air of the season to overspread the area starting

  Thursday night and continuing into Sunday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 342 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026



Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: We could probably put this discussion on

repeat this week.  Full-latitude long wave trough encompasses the

eastern two-thirds of North America...getting reinforced by short

wave energy coming over the top of a narrow but strong ridge along

the west coast (+2 to +3 sigma 500mb height anomaly).  A couple of

dynamic PV anomalies in the vicinity of the Great Lakes...one is

crossing southern Lower Michigan and heading to the lower Lakes...a

second is over northwest Ontario with impressively cold 500mb

temperatures (-45C at YPL this morning).  Winds shifting to the

northwest pulling colder air into the Midwest/Great Lakes with 850mb

temperatures below -20C.  Surface analysis shows an elongated area

of low pressure from the Ontario/Quebec border west into the Straits

of Mackinac...tight pressure gradient between this low and a 1035mb

high over the northern/central Plains.  Plenty of sub-zero cold all

the way down into northeast Iowa...with the cold air wrapping around

the upper Lakes and a developing lake aggregate thermal bubble

across Michigan/southern Ontario.



As mentioned above this pattern is going to be on repeat this week

with North American long wave trough stuck between blocking over the

central Pacific and extending into Alaska (-EPO) and a high-latitude

blocking ridge from Greenland to Scandinavia.  Short wave

disturbances will continue to move through the mean long wave

trough...keeping the cold pattern in place and likely reinforcing it

next weekend with a sub-498dam 500mb low passing north of the Great

Lakes Friday.  Surface low over the Straits today will pull away

this evening...with some lake aggregate troughing left behind as

short wave trough/PV anomaly over northwest Ontario rotates across

the upper Lakes tonight.  Next short wave trough digging in from the

northwest will scoop up a lee side low over the central High Plains

and pull it northeast into Lower Michigan Wednesday...a turn of the

boundary layer flow to a southerly component and resultant warm

advection will allow temperatures to moderate a bit for midweek.   A

short lived respite at that with a reinforcing push of much colder

air for the latter half of the week with increasing cyclonic flow

across the Great Lakes Thursday as sub-498dam 500mb low drops into

Ontario.  Coldest air looks to arrive Thursday night/Friday with a

1050mb Arctic high building into the Plains/Midwest with 1000-500mb

thickness at or below 486dam/850mb temperatures at or below -30C

Friday which is just absurdly cold.



Primary Forecast Concerns:



Lake effect snow and cold tonight/Tuesday: Transition to multi-band

northwest flow lake convection has already occurred...impressive

inversion heights reaching up toward 600mb.  Nice two lake band

enhanced by shoreline topography across central Upper extending into

the Grand Traverse Bay area at early afternoon...with time

anticipating that band will shift northward with backing boundary

layer flow later this afternoon which should spread the snow

accumulation potential out across northern Lower.  Off Lake Superior

decent looking band has been pushing toward Whitefish Bay...and

think that is going to intensity as it drifts into the Soo region

this evening enhanced by topographically forced frontogenesis as sub-

zero cold over the higher terrain east of Lake Superior bumps up

again lake induced thermal ridge.  As mentioned in this space

yesterday this should be the genesis of a three-lake band that

eventually reaches Lake Ontario.  Over time...expect drainage

flow/density current to push the colder air across the St. Mary`s

River and subsequently push the band back toward Whitefish Point.

Deep CBL extending up to 700mb...the only question is the colder

temperatures and the DGZ getting shoved lower and lower into the

cloud...resulting in more plates/columns and lower snow-to-liquid

ratios as a consequence.  Passing short wave trough may add in a

little seeder-feeder enhancement as well which won`t hurt the cause.

Overall additional snow amounts of 4-8 inches across parts of

western Chippewa county adjacent to Whitefish Bay...around 4 inches

in the vicinity of the Soo and will all depend on how things evolve

this evening.



Off Lake Michigan...will be losing the longer effective two-lake

fetch.  Like over Lake Superior there may be some seeder-feeder

enhancement during the first half of the night...but the shorter

fetch combined with synoptic subsidence overnight will result in a

lowering of the CBL depth.  Radar snowfall estimates through 1900Z

suggest a swatch of 1-3 inches since 1200Z across parts of Leelanau/

Grand Traverse/Missaukee/Kalkaska/Antrim counties today... heaviest

additional snowfall for tonight will be 2-3 inches for an area

bounded by M-33 to the east...and M-68/M-32 to the north and south.

Amounts less than 2 inches outside of that zone.



Winds will remain gusty tonight except along the St. Mary`s River

overnight...should trend down from during the day today but still

gusting over 20mph with some higher gusts along the northwest Lower

shoreline counties.  So some blowing/drifting snow will still occur

overnight.  Overall no changes to the ongoing snow headlines.  As

for temperatures...single digits above zero (mostly) for northern

Lower...and below zero across eastern Upper with coldest readings

along the St. Mary`s river where temperatures may bottom out around

-10F.  Will expand the Cold Weather Advisory to cover all zones...it

will be close enough most areas with some double digit below zero

wind chills already this afternoon (PLN/CIU/ANJ)...and it limits the

complaints.



More widespread mostly light snow Tuesday night/Wednesday but lake

enhancement probable:  Warm advection ahead of advancing surface low

and some dynamic short wave trough forcing will spread more

widespread snow across the forecast area starting later Tuesday

evening.  Lake convection during the day Tuesday will be swinging

around to the southwest as winds back...and looks like a pretty good

signal for a strong southwest snow band to set up along the

northwest Lower shoreline during the early morning hours of

Wednesday where several more inches of snow are possible (and can

envision needing another advisory type headline).  Snow chances will

linger through Wednesday as initial short wave trough departs and a

second one swings through Wednesday night.



Coldest air of the season to overspread the area starting Thursday

night and continuing into Sunday: Forecast trends are pushing the

next reinforcing shot of colder air into the upper Lakes starting

Thursday night...with Friday (in particular) and Saturday looking

very cold.  Probability for sub-zero highs remain above 60% across

eastern Upper for Friday...and 40-50 percent for Saturday. Certainly

looking at a good bet for more cold weather headlines Friday and

Saturday with minimum wind chills both days in the -15F to -30F

range (coldest above the bridge).



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 640 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026



WNW winds remain 10-15kts thru tonight with gusts to 25-35kts,

though some areas may see less gusts and more LLWS, around 1500ft,

esp away from lake effect areas (i.e., APN). Winds to back to W and

SW after 10-12z and stay SW, esp after 18z. MVFR to VFR cigs outside

of lake effect snow bands; inside snow bands, high chance of IFR,

medium chance LIFR, and expect sites to continue to bounce around

between VFR/IFR. If more intense band off Whitefish Bay is able to

nick CIU tonight, LIFR cigs/visbys could occur..but think this will

stay mostly toward ANJ. WNW flow bands tonight back to W and SW

Tuesday afternoon which should keep most impacts near Lake MI shore

again. BLSN to remain a problem and could drop visbys to IFR or less

at times, even outside of bands.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ016-020>022-

     025>027-031>033-086-099.

     Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM EST

     Tuesday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ017-018-

     023-028-029-034-035-041-087-088-095-096.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LHZ346>349.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST Tuesday for LMZ341.

     Gale Warning until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-342-344>346.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321.

     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for LSZ322.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...JPB

LONG TERM...

AVIATION...FEF






                

                        

027

ACUS11 KWNS 191650

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 191650

NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-192045-



Mesoscale Discussion 0028

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1050 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026



Areas affected...Pennsylvania into western New York



Concerning...Snow Squall



Valid 191650Z - 192045Z



SUMMARY...Occasional visibility reductions associated with

moderate/heavy snow showers and gusty winds may spread east across

parts of Pennsylvania and into western New York through the

afternoon.



DISCUSSION...A cluster of snow showers migrating across eastern OH

and western PA over the past few hours have yielded occasional

visibility reductions down to 1/4 mile per regional web cams and

ASOS observations. These visibility reductions are largely being

driven by moderate to heavy snowfall rates within shallow, but

convectively augmented, snow showers ahead of a progressive

mid-level wave evident in GOES imagery. Strong cold advection

through 850 mb will continue to support 25-35 mph wind gusts, which

will further contribute to periods of low visibility by blowing

falling snow and the antecedent snow pack in place across western

PA. As such, periods of snow squall conditions should spread

east/northeast through mid-afternoon in tandem with the upper wave

and the surging low-level cold air mass.



..Moore.. 01/19/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...



LAT...LON   40088011 40158059 40468072 41068072 41588055 41898026

            42797841 42867780 42807704 42447635 42117596 41627592

            41247586 40767613 40477662 40088011