Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

958

ACUS01 KWNS 011626

SWODY1

SPC AC 011624



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1124 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026



Valid 011630Z - 021200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM

SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE UPPER COAST OF TEXAS...AND THE CENTRAL

GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be

possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,

and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.



...Synopsis...

Late morning water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid-level shortwave

trough moving east across Far West TX and Chihuahua.  This upper

feature will move quickly east and weaken while moving into

increasingly confluent flow through the base of a larger-scale

eastern U.S. trough.  As a weak cyclone develops east along a

west-east draped front from south TX northeastward to the mouth of

the MS River, strengthening low to mid-level flow associated with

warm advection will overspread the northern Gulf of America into the

FL Panhandle tonight.



Strong to locally severe thunderstorm clusters have episodically

developed and moved east across south-central TX this morning

immediately downstream of the upper disturbance.  Localized

hail/wind may accompany the stronger storms through the mid-late

afternoon.  A shallow post-frontal stable layer near the surface and

weak instability lended confidence in removing low tornado

probabilities over TX this outlook update.  See MCD #632 regarding

short-term details.



Farther east, little in the way of destabilization is currently

depicted by the latest model guidance to the north of the front,

specifically from near Lake Pontchartrain eastward over the near

shore waters to the south of Mobile Bay and the western FL

Panhandle.  North of the boundary, a low risk for large hail will be

maintained as a couple of stronger elevated storms intensify later

this evening into the overnight and traverse eastward in tandem with

increasing large-scale ascent/strengthening flow fields.  Near and

immediately south of the front, have focused the tornado and wind

probabilities this outlook update to the proximity of surface-based

inflow parcels potentially being realized by organized storm modes.



..Smith/Chalmers.. 05/01/2026



$$






                

                        

920

ACUS02 KWNS 011713

SWODY2

SPC AC 011712



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1212 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026



Valid 021200Z - 031200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR SOUTHERN

GEORGIA...EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL

FLORIDA...



...SUMMARY...

Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into

northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.



...Synopsis...

A large upper trough will be present across much of the eastern U.S.

on Saturday. The mid-level jet will be intensifying through the

period, primarily north of a surface cold front. South of the cold

front, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints will be in place.



...Southern Georgia into central Florida...

Convection will be ongoing early Saturday morning. The intensity of

this early activity is not certain, though thunderstorms will be in

a highly sheared (55-65 kt effective) environment. An initial warm

layer around 700 mb may limit overall intensity before modest

cooling aloft occurs mid/late morning. At least filtered heating is

expected to occur south of the cold front. MLCAPE by the afternoon

of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible. With shear parallel to the cold

front, there is potential for the front to undercut some of the

convection. However, one or more organizing linear segments/clusters

could still occur along/south of the boundary. Wind damage would

likely be the primary hazard with this activity. Large hail is still

a possibility, but would be somewhat conditional on a discrete storm

mode. The tornado threat remains less certain. The low-level jet

will be strongest in the morning before lifting north and east

through the day. This would mean diurnal destabilization would be

out of phase with the strongest low-level wind field. While the

overall threat for a tornado or two appears low, there is a narrow

zone in North Florida where marginally stronger low-level shear and

boundary-layer destabilization may favorably align mid/late morning.

Uncertainty in the position of the boundary/low-level thermodynamics

is too high for an increase in tornado probabilities.



..Wendt.. 05/01/2026



$$






                

                        

103

NWUS53 KAPX 272352

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

752 PM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0742 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ENE Elberta           44.63N 86.20W

04/27/2026  M44 MPH          Benzie             MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KFKS Frankfort - Dow Memorial

            Field.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

981

FXUS63 KAPX 011722

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

122 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Widespread sub-freezing temperatures expected across northern

  Michigan away from the immediate lakeshores tonight.



- Cool temperatures continue through Saturday. After a brief

  warmup, below-average temperatures, precip chances, and

  possible frost/freeze concerns return for most of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026



Pattern Synopsis:



A closed mid/upper low centered south of James Bay and associated

expansive troughing will continue to churn in place through

Saturday, eventually lifting northeast into Sunday. Ridging and

associated surface high pressure will temporarily work in Saturday

night/Sunday morning before additional troughing punches overhead

Sunday night. Continued troughing appears it will bring an unsettled

pattern across the region through much of next week.



Forecast Details:



The main forecast concern continues to be expected sub-freezing

temperatures across a wide swath of northern Michigan tonight. As

has been the case the past two nights, cloud cover will make for a

tricky low temperature forecast. Current expectation is that daytime

cloud cover with shower activity will dissipate to a degree this

evening and early tonight. Forecast sounding profiles display

increasing low-level moisture across much of northwest lower with

time tonight, leading to higher confidence in some redevelopment of

cloud cover with help from northwest flow across the lakes. All in

all, current belief is that low temperatures will end up very

similar to last night for most areas -- widespread low 30s away from

the immediate lakeshores, upper 20s or possibly colder for low-lying

interior areas (especially if clouds clear out), and mid 30s near

the immediate lakeshores. With a majority of the area in lakeshore

counties forecast to dip near/below freezing tonight, all northern

lower counties have been included in the Freeze Warning tonight.



Otherwise, ongoing showers across parts of northern Michigan will

move east later this evening. As noted by the previous forecaster, a

few showers cannot be entirely ruled out again Saturday, but

expectation is that the dry low-level airmass working in will

provide a hostile enough environment that most areas stay dry.



Frost/freeze potential returns to parts of northern Michigan again

Saturday night, although the window for these conditions appears

narrow. Temperatures near freezing may be confined to an area along

and east of I-75 late Saturday evening/early Saturday night before

temperatures actually begin to warm into Sunday morning with

southwest low-level flow advecting a more mild airmass into the

Northwoods.



After a brief warm up into early this week with highs on Monday

reaching into the 60s, we look to plunge back into well below

average temps accompanied by precip chances through the remainder of

next week. Highs in the 40s and low 50s are expected most days with

another string of potential frost/freeze conditions overnight --

which would be around 10 degrees cooler than average for the start

of May.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...

Issued at 541 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026



Band of MVFR producing low cigs will exit KAPN quickly this

morning. Otherwise, looking at VFR conditions under relatively

higher based cumulus and other passing mid level clouds today,

with skies scattering out later today and tonight. Likely to see

a few non-impactful light rain and snow showers at times

today...especially at KAPN. Northwest winds become light/calm

tonight.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for

     MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-099.

     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for

     MIZ098.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DJC

AVIATION...MSB






                

                        

744

ACUS11 KWNS 011708

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 011707

LAZ000-011900-



Mesoscale Discussion 0633

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1207 PM CDT Fri May 01 2026



Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana into extreme

southern Mississippi



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 011707Z - 011900Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon across

much of southern Louisiana. A couple of stronger storms may bring

some potential for isolated severe hazards, including marginally

severe hail, severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado, to portions of

southeastern Louisiana.



DISCUSSION...Latest regional radar imagery depicts ongoing

thunderstorms along/south of the Louisiana coastline, with a

stronger core currently noted south of Vermilion Parish, ahead of a

subtle (and potentially convectively-enhanced) mid-level

perturbation analyzed over eastern Texas. This convection is located

in close proximity to the analyzed location of a surface stationary

front, with latest mesoanalysis depicting 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE south

of this boundary, with little buoyancy to its north. Strong

mid/upper level flow (60+ kts at 5 km AGL per the HDC VWP) and

effective bulk shear of 60+ kts will support the potential for

supercell structures, with Bunker`s motion favoring right-moving

supercell tracks along/parallel to the surface boundary. While weak

available buoyancy and marginal mid-level lapse rates (evident in

the 12z LIX observed sounding) are likely to limit the overall

severe potential, isolated marginally severe hail and strong wind

gusts (likely within the 40-50 mph range) are possible with stronger

cores that come onshore and/or persist on the cool side of the

boundary.



A brief tornado/waterspout may also be possible, especially along

and south of the surface boundary where organized storms may better

realize surface-based buoyancy. A gradual strengthening of low-level

southerly flow is anticipated with time later this afternoon/evening

ahead of a developing surface cyclone, and this should promote at

least some increase in low-level hodograph curvature and associated

tornado risk with time. Despite this, low-level shear is forecast to

remain modest at best. When coupled with the aforementioned

marginally-favorable thermodynamic environment, this is expected to

limit the overall severe threat. Trends will continue to be

monitored, but watch issuance is not expected at this time.



..Chalmers/Smith.. 05/01/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...



LAT...LON   29169149 29299180 29499185 29769123 29969031 30088919

            30058873 29938856 29058897 28868921 28858976 29009074

            29169149



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN








                

                        

809

WGUS43 KAPX 291437

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1037 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026



MIC031-047-080000-

/O.EXT.KAPX.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260508T0000Z/

/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Cheboygan MI-Emmet MI-

1037 AM EDT Wed Apr 29 2026



...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY, MAY 07...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by recent rain and snowmelt continues.



* WHERE...A portion of northern Michigan, including the following

  counties, Cheboygan and Emmet.



* WHEN...Until 800 PM EDT Thursday May 07.



* IMPACTS...Flooding is occurring following recent heavy rainfall

  and snowmelt. Roads and structures near lakes and rivers will

  continue to see high water levels with slow improvement expected

  into next week.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 1037 AM EDT, Flooding continues across the warned area,

    which encompasses a large portion of Emmet and Cheboygan

    counties.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads.



Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts may be unstable

and unsafe.



&&



LAT...LON 4543 8494 4549 8497 4549 8505 4558 8509

      4565 8485 4564 8468 4559 8461 4559 8458

      4563 8459 4564 8457 4560 8437 4553 8425

      4520 8425 4521 8473 4529 8473 4529 8486

      4535 8490 4537 8488 4540 8491 4543 8491





$$



JK






                

                        

127

WGUS83 KAPX 271529

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1129 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026



MIC031-047-300000-

/O.CON.KAPX.FA.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260430T0000Z/

/00000.0.RS.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Cheboygan MI-Emmet MI-

1129 AM EDT Mon Apr 27 2026



...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by recent rain and snowmelt continues.



* WHERE...A portion of northern Michigan, including the following

  counties, Cheboygan and Emmet.



* WHEN...Until 800 PM EDT Wednesday.



* IMPACTS...Flooding is occurring following recent heavy rainfall

  and snowmelt. Roads and structures near lakes and rivers will

  continue to see high water levels with slow improvement expected

  into next week.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 1128 AM EDT, flooding continues across the warned area,

    which encompasses a large portion of Emmet and Cheboygan

    counties.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads.



Stay away or be swept away. River banks and culverts may be unstable

and unsafe.



&&



LAT...LON 4543 8494 4549 8497 4549 8505 4558 8509

      4565 8485 4564 8468 4559 8461 4559 8458

      4563 8459 4564 8457 4560 8437 4553 8425

      4520 8425 4521 8473 4529 8473 4529 8486

      4535 8490 4537 8488 4540 8491 4543 8491





$$