361

ACUS01 KWNS 170444

SWODY1

SPC AC 170443



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1143 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorm probabilities appear less than 10 percent across the

U.S. today through tonight.



...Discussion...

Models indicate that blocking within the large-scale pattern will

remain prominent through this period.  This includes one notable

mid-level high, which may build further while slowly beginning to

shift inland of the southern California coast, into the Southwest.

As this occurs, large-scale ridging likely will be maintained across

the offshore mid-latitude Pacific through the Rockies, with at least

some expansion eastward across the Great Plains.



It appears that another mid-level high may attempt to form

downstream, within initially amplified large-scale ridging across

the western mid-latitude Atlantic, as a couple of significant short

wave perturbations emerge from lingering larger-scale troughing

initially across the Mississippi Valley through Atlantic Seaboard.

Both of the waves are forecast to rapidly accelerate within strong

southwesterly flow into the northern mid-latitude Atlantic.



As this occurs, a broad, deep and occluding surface cyclone is

forecast to migrate northeast of the eastern Canadian provinces,

with the trailing cold front advancing away from much of the

Atlantic Seaboard, while slowing/stalling across the Bahamas into

Caribbean. The center of cold surface ridging likely will shift from

near the northwestern Gulf coast into the Mid Atlantic vicinity

today through tonight, but models indicate that surface ridging will

be maintained to the southwest, across much of the Great Basin.



In association with this regime, dry and/or stable conditions are

likely to prevail across much of the U.S., with negligible risk for

thunderstorm activity today through tonight.



..Kerr.. 03/17/2026



$$






                

                        

549

ACUS02 KWNS 170434

SWODY2

SPC AC 170432



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1132 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026



Valid 181200Z - 191200Z



...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...



...SUMMARY...

Thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday.



...Synopsis...

A large upper trough will exist over the eastern states, with an

upper high prominently situated over the Southwest. High pressure

will cover most of the CONUS, with dry offshore flow from the East

Coast into the Gulf of America. As such, the pattern will offer

little potential for destabilization or thunderstorms. However,

relative moisture from the Bahamas into the FL Straits may support a

few weak oceanic thunderstorms, most likely just off the FL

Peninsula.



..Jewell.. 03/17/2026



$$






                

                        

743

NWUS53 KAPX 170938

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report...Summary

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

538 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0731 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 SE Traverse City      44.73N 85.57W

03/16/2026  M54 MPH          Grand Traverse     MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KTVC Traverse City - Cherry

            Capital Airport.



0840 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 7 NNE Northport         45.21N 85.55W

03/16/2026  M52 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GTLM4 6 NE Northport.



0633 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ENE Elberta           44.63N 86.20W

03/16/2026  M49 MPH          Benzie             MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KFKS Frankfort - Dow Memorial

            Field.



0806 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SE Greilickville      44.79N 85.63W

03/16/2026  M46 MPH          LMZ323             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XELM Elmwood Township

            Marina.



0752 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Charlevoix        45.30N 85.27W

03/16/2026  M45 MPH          Charlevoix         MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KCVX Charlevoix - Municipal

            Arpt.



0835 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 NNW Kewadin           44.97N 85.38W

03/16/2026  M45 MPH          Antrim             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station DVI02572 Elk Rapids.



1112 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 SSE East Tawas        44.25N 83.46W

03/16/2026  M45 MPH          Iosco              MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XTAW Tawas Point.



0535 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSE Kinross           46.25N 84.47W

03/16/2026  M44 MPH          Chippewa           MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KCIU Kinross - Chippewa County

            International Arpt.



0608 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 S Empire              44.76N 86.06W

03/16/2026  M43 MPH          Benzie             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station SBDM4 Bear.



0900 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 N Bates               44.82N 85.44W

03/16/2026  M43 MPH          Grand Traverse     MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MIWMT Williamsburg.



0754 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Pellston          45.57N 84.80W

03/16/2026  M41 MPH          Emmet              MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KPLN Pellston - Rgnl Airport Of

            Emmet County.



1000 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 S Elk Rapids          44.84N 85.41W

03/16/2026  M41 MPH          Grand Traverse     MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MIELK 3.5 S Elk Rapids

            (MAWN).



0625 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 WNW Glen Arbor        44.90N 86.00W

03/16/2026  M41 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station DVI07566 Glen Arbor.



1000 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ENE Norwood           45.25N 85.32W

03/16/2026  M40 MPH          Charlevoix         MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station MICLX Charlevoix.



0712 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 3 E Sault Ste. Marie    46.49N 84.30W

03/16/2026  M39 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station LTRM4 Little Rapids, MI.



0736 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 4 NNW Bay Mills         46.48N 84.63W

03/16/2026  M39 MPH          Chippewa           MI   Buoy



            Buoy station PTIM4 Point Iroquois, MI.



1039 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSE Gladwin           43.97N 84.48W

03/16/2026  M39 MPH          Gladwin            MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KGDW 1 SE Gladwin.



0415 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 SSW Rogers City       45.40N 83.82W

03/17/2026  M39 MPH          Presque Isle       MI   AWOS



            AWOS station KPZQ Rogers City - Presque Isle

            County Arpt.





&&



$$












                

                        

989

FXUS63 KAPX 170819

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

419 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Light lake effect snow and gusty winds continue this morning,

  combining with existing poor road conditions to create

  hazardous travel for some areas.



- Below freezing temperatures continue into the middle of the

  week, potentially complicating recovery efforts for hardest

  hit ice areas.



- Additional precip chances at times through this weekend.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 417 AM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026



Pattern Synopsis:



Impressive amplified longwave troughing centered over the Great

Lakes will begin to lift northeast today as the associated surface

cyclone treks across Quebec. Surface high pressure will build across

much of the Mississippi Valley today underneath subsidence on the

backside of said troughing, nosing into the Great Lakes late today

into tonight for a brief period. A second wave will punch over the

far northern Great Lakes on Wednesday, supporting a weak, elongated

system that looks to drag across the region during the second half

of the week. Additional waves embedded in large scale northwest flow

aloft may continue to work across the region through the weekend.



Forecast Details:



Recovery efforts will be in full force across northern Michigan

today as winter weather impacts begin to wind down across the area.

Mainly light lake effect snow will persist across northwest lower

and eastern upper Michigan this morning, along with gusty winds of

20-30 mph. The combination of light snow, winds, and existing poor

road conditions will still keep hazardous travel in place across

parts of the area this morning. Lake effect snow showers will be

shunted inland across much of the area this afternoon, potentially

leading to some lowered visibilities under any heavier showers.

Additional snowfall totals of 1-2" are expected across northwest

lower Michigan with less than 1" elsewhere.



Looking ahead, cold temperatures are expected to last through the

middle of the week, potentially complicating recovery efforts across

the areas hit hardest by freezing rain/damaging icing. These areas

may creep above freezing briefly on Wednesday, but much higher

confidence exists in a warm up on Thursday where afternoon

temperatures likely rise above 40 for those along the M-55 corridor.

Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s look to last through this weekend,

which would be close to average heading into the second half of

March. Otherwise, another round of light snow chances returns on

Wednesday, especially for those along the Lake Michigan shoreline.

Additional rain/snow chances will move into the Great Lakes as

aforementioned waves work across the region into next week, but no

major systems appear to be on the horizon.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 1046 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026



Lake effect snows and blowing snow continue...especially

targeting KTVC and KMBL with frequent vis drops to a quarter to

half of a mile. Slow improvement at these locations heading into

this morning as snow punts further inland and winds begin to

subside. Expect both KTVC and KMBL to trend to VFR during the

day. Improvement at the other taf locations...trending toward

VFR conditions through the morning. Gusty northwest winds will

gradually diminish today.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for

     MIZ016-017-020-021-025>027-031-032-099.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for

     MIZ086>088-095>098.

MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LHZ345>349.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LMZ323-341-342-

     344>346.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for LSZ321-322.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DJC

AVIATION...MSB






                

                        

123

ACUS11 KWNS 170255

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 170255

NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-170500-



Mesoscale Discussion 0282

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0955 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026



Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic region



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71...



Valid 170255Z - 170500Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 71

continues.



SUMMARY...Damaging winds remain likely over the next hour across

parts of the Mid-Atlantic, but a gradual weakening trend is expected

as a squall line moves into a more stable air mass.



DISCUSSION...Scattered reports of wind damage continue to filter in

as a shallow squall line pushes east across the Mid-Atlantic region.

Although most of this line will soon move offshore in the coming

hour or so, the northern portion of the line will continue to move

into NJ and perhaps far southern NY in the next few hours. Based on

recent velocity data and surface observations, damaging winds will

remain likely roughly over the next hour. With time, this band will

move into a cooler/drier air mass where temperatures are only in the

upper 50s (with pockets of low 60s). Based on the recent 00z OKX

RAOB and recent forecast soundings, these temperatures (coupled with

dewpoints in the low 50s) may be sufficiently cool to modulate

downward momentum flux to the surface within the convective

downdrafts. That said, the KOKX VWP continues to sample 70 knot

winds within the lowest 0.5 km, so an isolated damaging wind threat

may persist into southern NY as the line gradually weakens.

Confidence in the persistence of the damaging wind threat beyond the

next 1-2 hours is limited given the overall degradation of buoyancy

with northeastward extent; downstream watch issuance is not

expected.



..Moore.. 03/17/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...



LAT...LON   38007563 38877564 39687561 41087545 41337523 41557442

            41537402 41387357 41197321 40847303 40667305 40587336

            40467369 40267380 39977389 39657400 39147445 38717478

            38347496 38017510 37867521 37877539 37897550 38007563



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH








                

                        

344

WGUS43 KAPX 161513

FLWAPX



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

Flood Warning

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1113 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026



...The National Weather Service in Gaylord MI has issued a Flood

Warning for the following rivers in Michigan...



  Rifle River near Sterling affecting Arenac County.



For the Rifle River...including Sterling...Minor flooding is

forecast.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.



The next statement will be issued this evening, or as needed.this

evening at 1115 PM EDT.



&&



MIC011-170315-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FL.W.0002.260316T1615Z-260317T1500Z/

/STRM4.1.ER.260316T1615Z.260317T0000Z.260317T0900Z.NO/

1113 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026



...FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW MORNING...



* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.



* WHERE...Rifle River near Sterling.



* WHEN...Until late tomorrow morning.



* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, High water begins to impact canoe livery at

  River View Campground.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 10:30 AM EDT Monday the stage was 5.9 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.

  - Forecast...The river will rise above flood stage this

    afternoon to 6.3 feet this evening. It will then fall below

    flood stage late tonight to 3.7 feet early Friday morning. It

    will rise to 4.0 feet Sunday evening. It will then fall again

    and remain below flood stage.

  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.

  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of

    6.4 feet on 06/14/2010.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4406 8391 4406 8407 4416 8407 4411 8397

      4404 8379 4399 8381





$$



JZ






                

                        

627

WGUS83 KAPX 170212

FLSAPX



Flood Statement

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1012 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026



...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in

Michigan...



  Rifle River near Sterling affecting Arenac County.



For the Rifle River...including Sterling...Minor flooding is

occurring.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



Additional information is available at www.weather.gov.



The next statement will be issued later Tuesday morning.Tuesday

morning at 1015 AM EDT.



&&



MIC011-171415-

/O.EXT.KAPX.FL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-260318T0300Z/

/STRM4.1.ER.260316T1615Z.260317T0600Z.260317T2100Z.NO/

1012 PM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026



...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL LATE TOMORROW EVENING...



* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring and minor flooding is forecast.



* WHERE...Rifle River near Sterling.



* WHEN...Until late tomorrow evening.



* IMPACTS...At 6.0 feet, High water begins to impact canoe livery at

  River View Campground.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 9:30 PM EDT Monday the stage was 6.7 feet.

  - Bankfull stage is 4.5 feet.

  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours

    ending at 9:30 PM EDT Monday was 6.7 feet.

  - Forecast...The river will rise to 6.8 feet just after

    midnight tonight. It will then fall below flood stage

    tomorrow afternoon.

  - Flood stage is 6.0 feet.

  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of

    6.7 feet on 07/24/2010.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



&&



LAT...LON 4406 8391 4406 8407 4416 8407 4411 8397

      4404 8379 4399 8381





$$



MSB