Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

292

ACUS01 KWNS 140102

SWODY1

SPC AC 140100



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0800 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026



Valid 140100Z - 141200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and severe gusts are

expected this evening into tonight over parts of the central and

southern Plains into the Lower Missouri Valley. Isolated large hail

may also occur in the southern Great Lakes.



...Southern and Central Plains...

The latest water vapor imagery shows an anticyclonic flow pattern in

place over the eastern two-thirds of the nation, with southwesterly

mid-level flow from the Desert Southwest into the southern and

central Plains. At the surface, a cold front is located from near

the Oklahoma Panhandle northeastward into north-central Missouri. A

1007 mb low is analyzed over the northeastern Texas Panhandle.

Low-convergence is maximized along the front over the central

Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The convergence

axis extends southward into the Low Rolling Plains of northwest

Texas, where a cluster of storms is also ongoing. Ahead of the

convergence axis, surface dewpoints are in upper 60s and lower 70s F

over much of the southern and central Plains, which is contributing

to moderate instability, with the RAP estimating MLCAPE mostly in

the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range.



In addition to the instability,the WSR-88D VWP at Wichita, KS has

0-6 km shear near 35 knots with 40 to 45 knots of southwesterly flow

in the mid-levels. Some directional shear is present in the boundary

layer. This environment will support a threat for supercells with

cells that remain discrete. Supercells will be capable of large

hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Severe wind

gusts are expected to become the primary severe threat as the

primary mode becomes linear, later this evening.



Further south into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas, the latest

WSR-88D VWP at Frederick has about 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. The RAP

also has steep mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range.

This should support supercells with a potential for large hail and

severe wind gusts.



...Southern Great Lakes...

A minor shortwave trough appears to be moving into the western Great

Lakes early this evening. Ahead of this feature, thunderstorms have

developed over far southern Wisconsin. The storms will track

east-southeastward into the southern Great Lakes this evening into

the overnight. The RAP currently shows an axis of instability

analyzed from western Illinois northeastward into the southwestern

Great Lakes. Along and near this axis, RAP forecast soundings late

this evening have MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg with effective shear near

40 knots. This may be enough for an isolated large hail threat, with

the stronger elevated storms.



..Broyles.. 10/14/2026



$$






                

                        

077

ACUS02 KWNS 131732

SWODY2

SPC AC 131730



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NORTH

TEXAS...ACROSS OKLAHOMA...TO THE WESTERN OZARK PLATEAU...



...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms capable of mainly damaging wind gusts, isolated

hail and a tornado or two are possible across portions of the

southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau, and in the parts of the

upper Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and evening.



...Southern Plains to the Ozarks...

An upper low, initially over the Four Corners, is forecast move

eastward over the High Plains while southwesterly flow aloft

increases. A series of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima will

move along a cold front through the Mid-Atlantic, OH and mid-MS

Valleys, and into portions of the southern Plains. Western portions

of the front, modified by convection, may eventually stall and

perhaps retreat north Wed night in response to falling pressures

with a deepening lee low over eastern CO and the central Plains.



Scattered to numerous thunderstorms, in one or more clusters, are

likely to be ongoing from the mid MS valley into southern/eastern KS

and central OK at 12z Wed. The cold front will likely be reinforced

by the convection with the morning outflow potentially causing it to

sag slowly across central OK and the western Ozarks Plateau through

the day. To the south of the boundary, the air mass should remain

very moist (70s F dewpoints), with modest heating contributing to

weak to moderate diurnal destabilization. Large-scale ascent will

gradually increase as the upper low approaches, aiding in

thunderstorm redevelopment along the dryline across the TX

Panhandle/western OK, and within the broader warm sector by early

afternoon. Increasing deep-layer shear (40-50 kt) will be supportive

of a mix of organized supercells and lines/clusters. Damaging winds

are the most likely threat given modest low/mid-level lapse rates

and a mixed convective mode. However, isolated hail and perhaps a

tornado, are also possible with any more persistent supercells.



As the main upper low moves eastward into the evening/overnight, the

stalled surface front may gradually return northward as a warm front

across OK and KS. The air mass will remain very moist, aided by

further moisture advection associated with a developing 30-40 kt

low-level jet. As low-level warm air advection increases near the

boundary, storm redevelopment is possible through the

evening/overnight. Expanding low-level hodographs (ESRH 150-200

m2/s2) and the very moist PBL could support a tornado or two with

any supercells or linear clusters able to develop near the surface

low and warm front into early Thursday.



...OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic...

Daytime heating combined with boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid

60s to low 70s F is expected to contribute to pockets of moderate

instability with MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg by mid-late afternoon ahead

of the cold front. Thunderstorms ongoing over the mid MS valley, and

additional development from the aforementioned vorticity maxima, are

expected to increase in areal coverage along the front through the

afternoon. Steepening low-level lapse rates coupled with

strengthening west-southwesterly winds with height (yielding up to

35-40 kt of deep-layer shear) appear supportive of isolated damaging

wind gusts into evening.



..Lyons.. 10/13/2026



$$






                

                        

146

NWUS53 KAPX 132043

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

443 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0745 AM     Rain             3 ENE Kingsley          44.60N 85.48W

10/13/2026  M1.24 Inch       Grand Traverse     MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-GT-21 Kingsley 2.7 ENE.



0700 AM     Rain             2 SW Grawn              44.65N 85.70W

10/13/2026  M1.16 Inch       Grand Traverse     MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-GT-28 1 SW Grawn.



0439 PM     Rain             1 SSW Lake Ann          44.71N 85.85W

10/13/2026  M1.13 Inch       Benzie             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station GW6471 LAKE ANN.



0500 AM     Rain             4 S Traverse City       44.70N 85.60W

10/13/2026  M1.04 Inch       Grand Traverse     MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-GT-32 Traverse City 3.7

            S.



0700 AM     Rain             1 NNE Grawn             44.68N 85.68W

10/13/2026  M1.00 Inch       Grand Traverse     MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-GT-30 Traverse City 6.1

            SW.



1200 PM     Rain             5 S Benzonia            44.54N 86.11W

10/13/2026  M1.00 Inch       Benzie             MI   Cocorahs



            Cocorahs station MI-BZ-1 Benzonia 5.3 S.





&&



$$



FEF








                

                        

538

FXUS63 KAPX 140415

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1215 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rainy, windy, and cooler temperatures expected later Thursday

  into Friday.



- Milder second half of the weekend into early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026



Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:



Sfc high pressure begins to nose in from the west today and tonight

due to upstream ridging aloft. Thus, dry conditions will be more

common than not, although with the lingering low level moisture

would not be entirely surprised to patchy drizzle early, mainly near

Lake Michigan. That being said, probably not going to inject any

officially in the forecast due to the spotty nature, if it happens

at all. Northwest winds continue through the day today as well, as

we remain socked in with clouds. Does not look like a huge signal

for fog tonight either with high pressure shifting off to the

northeast of N MI across the Canadian Shield and the potential for

non-zero sfc winds, but we`ll see about that going forward. Although

relatively uneventful today and tonight, we can sniff the next

weather system(s) upstream.



By Thursday, two distinct features upstream will take aim at

northern MI. The first feature is an upper low emerging out of the

Southwest and Central Plains, that slowly moves northeast with time

on Thursday while weakening. Another more robust feature will be

diving out of Sask Canada down into the Upper Midwest and eventually

Great Lakes region. Southern stream piece of energy gets absorbed

into the more robust feature coming out of Canada, which will inject

some decent moisture into northern Michigan (~1.0-1.4" PWATs). With

the combined lift from the stout upper trough to the northwest and

the sfc reflection from the upper low to the southwest coupled with

this moisture, a steady and healthy rain is upon northern Michigan,

beneficial for areas within D1/D2 drought like the E UP. Current

guidance shows the potential for 0.50-1.0" of rain generally, with

~40-70% chance for 0.50" of rain or more across a chunk of our area.



As the two pieces of upper level energy merge/phase and the jet

stream aloft intensifies, the sfc reflection will follow suit off to

our east. Thus, pressure gradient will increase through the day on

Friday with 30 to 40 knot H850 winds overspreading the area late.

Little less impressive signal compared to yesterday, due to the way

the energies phase and location/timing of the low level jet, but

windy conditions are still expected on Friday, 30 to 40 mph

certainly still possible, potential for higher near the Lake

Michigan shoreline. We`ll see how this trends in the coming days.



Precipitation chances largely relinquish through the weekend and

into next week as heights fill back in across northern Michigan and

temperatures turn milder (60s again). Brief piece of energy well to

the north across Canada beats the ridging down to some degree late

weekend into early next week. The only consequence for northern

Michigan will be an increased pressure gradient due to a stout low

pressure system to the north. Thus, an increase in winds can be

expected once more, looks like mainly Sunday at this time.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 1129 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2026



Areas of stratus/fog cover much of northern MI, and that is

unlikely to change into well into Wednesday. Places that bust

out of the low clouds (like MBL earlier) are likely to see some

fog form. That said, MVFR conditions are already becoming more

common than IFR, and that trend continues Wednesday. Some VFR

conditions by evening. Light-ish nw breezes continue.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this

     evening for LHZ347-348.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...JLD

AVIATION...JZ






                

                        

912

ACUS11 KWNS 140158

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 140158

MOZ000-KSZ000-140400-



Mesoscale Discussion 2372

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0858 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026



Areas affected...portions of southern/eastern Kansas into northern

Missouri



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682...



Valid 140158Z - 140400Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682

continues.



SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk for primarily damaging/severe wind

gusts continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 682.



DISCUSSION...Scattered strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms

remain ongoing along a progressive surface cold front extending from

northern Missouri into south-central Kansas as of 0200 UTC. The

strongest of the ongoing thunderstorms is a convective cluster

progressing eastward across western Missouri that produced numerous

reports of damaging/severe wind gusts in the Kansas City metro area

over the past 1-2 hours. Latest high-resolution CAM guidance

suggests that this cluster may continue downstream for at least

another couple of hours, with 1000-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and 30-40 kts of

effective bulk shear helping to maintain some potential for

occasional damaging/severe wind gusts. However, increasing

convective inhibition and decreasing instability with eastward

extent suggest that the overall severe risk will decrease with time

as convection progresses eastward. Thus, a downstream watch is not

currently anticipated, but trends will continue to be monitored.



Farther southwest, scattered elevated thunderstorms remain ongoing

along the cool side of the convectively reinforced surface front.

While regional radar imagery has sampled occasionally stronger

velocity signatures within more robust cores (perhaps associated

with gravity wave processes), the elevated nature of the convection

and greater low-level stability on the cool side of the boundary

suggest that the overall severe risk has decreased, with any

lingering potential for damaging/severe wind gusts and marginally

severe hail likely to remain relatively isolated.



..Chalmers.. 10/14/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LSX...EAX...TOP...ICT...



LAT...LON   37569748 38409631 39209503 39559404 39869294 39899249

            39829220 39589210 39319217 39059286 38859362 38289499

            37339642 37149693 37059721 37129745 37259755 37409756

            37569748



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN