Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

453

ACUS01 KWNS 160538

SWODY1

SPC AC 160536



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025



Valid 161200Z - 171200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER

PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES

REGION....



...SUMMARY...

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday

afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the

Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states.



...Upper MS Valley...

A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into

western MN/IA.  00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced

upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into

parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon.  Strong heating

and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector

of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values

to around 2000 J/kg.  Present indications are that thunderstorms

will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread

eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening.  The

strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts.  Enhanced

vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two.



...WY/CO...

The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later

today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern

CO.  Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon

thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY,

with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon.

Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for

a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging

winds through the afternoon and early evening.



...NY/PA/WV...

Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak

mid-level jet max over southern IL.  This feature will track

northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by

Wednesday afternoon.  Forcing associated with this feature, combined

with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of

thunderstorms affecting the region.  Forecast soundings show rather

weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and

considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential.  Will

therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk

of scattered wind damage across this region later today.



..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025



$$






                

                        

433

ACUS02 KWNS 160540

SWODY2

SPC AC 160538



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025



Valid 171200Z - 181200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN

MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND

NORTHEAST...



...SUMMARY...

Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the

Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday.



...Northeast...



A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to

near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will

track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A

trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley

and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front,

a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from

around 1000-2000 J/kg.



While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the

Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for

isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to

remain north of the international border, but the cold front should

provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity.

However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some

early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm

development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further

south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk

(level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH

Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the

Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer

to the surface low, a tornado or two.



...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic...



A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the

southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into

southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected

ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid

80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward

extent, but any MCVs from prior day`s convection coupled with the

sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered

thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a

risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts.



Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of

WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A

similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak

shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts.



..Leitman.. 07/16/2025



$$






                

                        

820

NWUS53 KAPX 130109

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

909 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0832 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     1 NNE Leland            45.02N 85.76W

07/12/2025  M45 MPH          LMZ344             MI   Mesonet



            Mesonet station XLEL Leland Harbor.





&&



$$



JZ






                

                        

496

FXUS63 KAPX 160704

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



-Hot and humid today with scattered showers and thunderstorms,

 particularly across northern lower Michigan. Potential for

 torrential rainfall and gusty winds with these storms.



-Another round of showers and thunderstorms passes through the

 area, particularly in areas along and south of M-72. Potential

 for torrential rainfall, gusty winds, and a non-zero tornado

 risk.



-Drying out and turning quite cooler Thursday. Highs likely

 range from 65 to 75 degrees.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025



Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:



Departing area of surface high pressure will ease its influence

across northern Michigan as the next 24 to 30 hours trend more

active. Stationary frontal boundary currently stretching from Val

-d`Or, Quebec to North Platte, Nebraska. Zonal flow regime aligns

well with the front, with a series of waves riding the boundary...

all convectively charged... one over northeast Ontario, another

associated with repeated rounds of storms across the Wisconsin

Highlands and western upper Michigan, and another developing across

South Dakota and Nebraska. Strong area of surface high pressure in

Canada will move south and east with time, forcing the frontal

boundary south and east toward northern Michigan. Subtle diffuse

moisture boundary / wind shift draped across eastern Wisconsin,

turning southeast toward Muncie, Indiana and Columbus, Ohio.



This boundary will be drawn northward as large scale ascent

increases, leading to a surge in moisture content across the region.

Minimal forcing will lead to a disorganized convective mode in the

afternoon, consisting of pulse dominant convection in a moist (1.5+

PWATs) profile. Then, as the front works closer, an upstream wave

originating from the aforementioned South Dakota / Nebraska

convective complex works closer, bringing potential for a linear

convective mode to scrape parts of northern Michigan, aided by LLJ

acceleration (25 to 40 kts), moisture intrusion (PWATs swell as high

as 2.0 after 00z), and just enough lingering surface instability to

keep the potential for storm maintenance from coast to coast across

portions of lower Michigan, possibly impacting the southern few rows

of counties of the APX CWA.



Forecast Details:



There will be two distinct convective episodes across the region. As

far as outlooks go for today... northern Michigan (especially

northern lower) is squarely within a Marginal Risk for Excessive

Rainfall (via WPC) today, with a Slight Risk poking into the

southern CWA. Much of northern lower is in a Marginal Risk for

Severe Storms (via SPC), with a Slight Risk poking into Manistee

County.



Scattered showers and storms later this morning into the afternoon:

Starting off largely dry, with the best chances for a shower by

daybreak favoring eastern upper along the immediate surface

frontal boundary. Rapid destabilization anticipated as deeper

moisture surges into the region, leading to widespread surface

dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 across northern lower.

Surface temps quickly rise well into the 70s and into the 80s,

with the most aggressive CAMs initiating convection across the

SW CWA as early as 14z. Expecting scattered showers and storms

to continue blossoming across the region through the afternoon

with a pulse dominant mode. With the aforementioned surge in

PWATs coupled with weak upper flow and bulk shear of 15 to 20kts

through the afternoon, anticipating slow-moving, torrential rain

producing storms to be the rule this afternoon, especially

along/south of a Beulah to Rogers City line. Primary hazards

with this activity will be localized rainfalls in excess of

2.50" in a short time, which may lead to marginal flooding

concerns... along with some gustier winds from any updraft

collapses into the afternoon. Radar presentation will likely be

littered with thunderstorm outflow boundaries by the afternoon

as storms pulse up and down.



Potential for a line of storms tonight: Latest CAMs continue to lay

down the potential for a convectively charged wave to progress

eastward from NE/SD through Iowa and into Wisconsin by this

afternoon. Strength of this wave remains in question due to

convective contamination in guidance, but nonetheless, it sure looks

like shower and storm development should materialize across central

into eastern Wisconsin through the afternoon, congealing into a

linear segment (and potentially) a larger bow echo that looks to

cross Lake Michigan early this evening, moving into lower Michigan

with time as we move into the overnight. Waning instability should,

from a conceptual standpoint, lead to a lessening intensity of this

feature as it progresses eastward through lower Michigan. That being

said, reinforcing LLJ acceleration to as high as 40kts on the most

aggressive of CAMs suggest that convective maintenance is possible

at the nose of this increasing LLJ field due to the presence of some

elevated instability. General theme is that this convective complex

should pass somewhere along and south of M-72, with only increasing

potential the farther south one goes. It is possible that the

greatest risk for this complex of storms to pass holds just south of

the area, but where this feature occurs will likely only show its

cards until later in the afternoon.



As far as hazards with this particular feature goes, torrential

rainfall, possibly aided by some echo training due to slow

advancement of this feature, is on the table with PWATs as high as

2.0, and a classic warm rain profile. In the event this overlaps

some spots that get downpours this afternoon, another flooding risk

may arise as this setup can yield impressive rain totals of 2.00"+

with ease. In addition, anticipating that there will be potential

for some damaging winds with this feature, especially if a bookend

vortex on the north end of the line can get into the CWA.

Furthermore, with low LCLs in the moist atmosphere and shear

ballooning to 40 to 45kts, suppose there is an embedded tornado

threat as well if enough surface instability can be realized. In the

event this particular feature holds south of the CWA, this will

dramatically decrease potential for severe weather across the region.



So after all that... what else is in store across the region? North

of this possible complex of storms, efficient stratiform rains are

on the table, with potential for an additional 0.50"+ of rain,

generally south of M-32. From M-32 to the Bridge, it is entirely

possible that you land in "meteorological purgatory", an atmospheric

state characterized by perhaps some lighter passing showers and

plenty of dry time. This particular region will see the lowest

overall chances for rain tonight. North of the bridge, mid level

frontogenesis may lead to a band of stratiform rain that looks to

bisect eastern upper from SW to NE. Most spots in the eastern Yoop

probably see 0.25" or less outside of this main fronto-driven band,

but areas that land under this more efficient rain band could see

over 1.00" by daybreak Thursday.



Later tonight: Once the wave and associated frontal boundary clears

the area to the south and east later tonight, expecting shower and

thunder chances to decrease from NW to SE into Thursday morning,

with just some lingering showers gradually becoming confined to

northeast lower with time through Thursday morning, with dry and

sunnier conditions largely prevailing into the afternoon. Will have

to watch Canadian wildfire smoke trends in the wake of this passage,

but latest guidance is pessimistic toward higher concentrations of

smoke over the region, so thus perhaps the occasional haze is

possible through the day. A sharply cooler airmass will be in place

Thursday... and boy howdy is it sharp. Average highs this time of

year are generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Anticipating

daytime highs across the region to peak anywhere from 65 to 75...

warmest in Gladwin, Arenac and Iosco counties.





&&



.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025



Strong area of Canadian high pressure set to build through the

weekend, bringing with it quite the drop in humidity with slightly

below normal daytime highs into the weekend. As such, this will

likely allow those looking to give their air conditioners a break to

do so. With Thursday`s afternoon highs being so low, anticipating

quite the chill across the area Thursday night as winds decouple and

temperatures plummet into the 40s and 50s. Dry Friday with highs in

the low to upper 70s, overnight lows in the upper 40s into the 50s.

Another wave passes through this weekend, returning rain chances for

Saturday. High pressure returns into Sunday, with seasonable

temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Looking ahead to next week, return

flow looks to build in, which should draw in warmer and a little bit

more moist air to the region. Thus, expecting highs to peak back

into the low to upper 80s at times, with occasional shower and storm

chances not off the table, especially heading toward midweek.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...

Issued at 245 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025



Upstream convection is fading enough to maintain quiet

conditions in the forecast through tonight, with decreasing

winds and VFR for most. A few pockets of MVFR CIGs and VSBYs

try to develop during the morning, otherwise VFR. Shower and

storm chances increase Wednesday, especially in the afternoon,

(although some -SHRA possible in the morning) and thus, have

VCSH for most locations. Best chance for -TSRA Wed afternoon

will be APN. Winds NW to W, with lake breeze circulation

shifting winds to east at APN. Any TSRA could have brief gusty

winds and torrential rain through Wednesday night.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...HAD

LONG TERM...HAD

AVIATION...JLD






                

                        

751

ACUS11 KWNS 160345

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 160345

IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-160545-



Mesoscale Discussion 1683

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025



Areas affected...southeastern Nebraska...southwestern

Iowa...northeastern Kansas...northwestern Missouri



Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516...



Valid 160345Z - 160545Z



The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516

continues.



SUMMARY...The ongoing cluster of storms has been generally

weakening, but continues to promote strong surface gusts, which

could still sporadically approach or exceed severe limits.  This

will continue to spread southeastward through Midnight-2 AM CDT,

particularly across the southeast Nebraska vicinity.  It is not

clear that a new severe weather watch will be needed downstream, but

trends will continue to be monitored.



DISCUSSION...Notable surface pressure rises (2-4+ mb 2-hourly) have

been maintained within the cold pool on the southwestern flank of

the forward propagating convective system, supporting the

southeastward and southward advancement of the cold pool across the

Norfolk, Columbus, Grand Island, Hastings, Kearney and Lexington

vicinities of Nebraska.  The more intense leading edge of the

convection has become a bit more displaced above/to the cool side of

the gust front, and now appears generally focused within forcing

associated with warm advection, on the nose a strengthening

southerly low-level jet associated with nocturnal boundary-layer

decoupling.



However, with increasing inhibition associated with the

boundary-layer cooling, coupled with warmer mid-level temperatures

with southeastward extent across the Missouri Valley and central

Great Plains, it remains unclear how much longer near surface

updraft inflow will be sufficient to maintain vigorous thunderstorm

development.  Based on the latest objective analysis, a corridor of

better low-level moisture flanking the Missouri River vicinity might

promote the best potential for lingering stronger thunderstorm

development into 05-07Z time frame, which may be accompanied by a

continuing potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts.



..Kerr.. 07/16/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...



LAT...LON   40769781 41249726 41469664 41779617 42099594 41709482

            40689486 40239492 39579573 39949661 40029745 40139852

            40769781



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN








                

                        

241

WGUS83 KAPX 121411

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1011 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025



MIC019-055-089-121421-

/O.EXP.KAPX.FA.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-250712T1415Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Benzie MI-Grand Traverse MI-Leelanau MI-

1011 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025



...FLOOD ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 AM EDT THIS MORNING...



The Flood Advisory will expire at 1015 AM EDT this morning for a

portion of northern Michigan, including the following areas, Benzie,

Grand Traverse and Leelanau.



The heavy rain has ended. Flooding is no longer expected to pose a

threat.



&&



LAT...LON 4488 8568 4492 8550 4489 8545 4475 8552

      4465 8561 4468 8574 4475 8582





$$



MJG