484

ACUS01 KWNS 130102

SWODY1

SPC AC 130100



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0800 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026



Valid 130100Z - 131200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF

THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Severe storms capable of producing large hail and scattered severe

wind gusts will spread east-southeastward across parts of the

south-central High Plains into the overnight hours. Locally damaging

gusts will remain possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic tonight.



...South-central High Plains...

Between a broad large-scale trough over the northern CONUS and an

upper ridge over the southern Plains, water-vapor imagery indicates

a subtle/low-amplitude impulse tracking eastward across the

central/southern High Plains -- embedded within a belt of enhanced

midlevel westerly flow. This feature and accompanying 40-50 kt of

effective shear will maintain an upscale-growing cluster of storms

as is tracks east-southeastward across the southern/central High

Plains into the overnight hours. In the near-term, large hail and

locally severe gusts will be the main concerns, especially with the

more separated updrafts/supercell structures evolving along the

southern flank of the convective cluster in northeastern NM. With

time, strengthening outflow and a nocturnal low-level jet will

promote further upscale growth and scattered severe/damaging gusts.

See Severe Thunderstorm Watch #323 for more information.



...Mid-Atlantic...

A cluster of thunderstorms tracking east-southeastward across the

Mid-Atlantic will continue to weaken over the next couple hours as

the boundary layer nocturnally stabilizes toward the coast.



...Eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas/western Missouri...

Positive low-level theta-e advection at the nose of a strengthening

low-level jet will promote isolated thunderstorm development late in

the period. Steep midlevel lapse rates atop a statically stable

boundary layer will mostly favor elevated storms. Sufficient

deep-layer shear will support convective organization, and severe

hail will be possible with the stronger storms that evolve.



..Weinman.. 06/13/2026



$$






                

                        

134

ACUS02 KWNS 130517

SWODY2

SPC AC 130515



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026



Valid 141200Z - 151200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF

THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are

expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and

evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the

Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.



...Mid-Atlantic Region...



An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday

morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will

pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic.

Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead

impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the

afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to

around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced

flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during

the afternoon and evening.



Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee

of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay

vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture

return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints

should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing

cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate

destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across

eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted

with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat

less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.



Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within

lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the

Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the

afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main

concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also

will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage

probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in

subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased

to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.



Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the

afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio

Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area,

deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will

pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the

evening.



...Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex...



A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west

to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable

airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection

cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast

NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak

large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface

boundary will limit overall severe potential.



..Leitman.. 06/13/2026



$$






                

                        

509

NWUS53 KAPX 120702

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

302 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0229 AM     Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE Roscommon County  44.35N 84.67W

06/12/2026  M43 MPH          Roscommon          MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KHTL Houghton Lake - Roscommon

            County Airport.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

768

FXUS63 KAPX 130311

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1111 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Shower/storm chances this evening and again Saturday into

  Sunday morning. Localized heavy rainfall is primary threat.

  Low chances for severe storms Saturday.



- High Swim Risk possible south of Empire Saturday.



- Much cooler Sunday into early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 248 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026



Pattern Synopsis:



A closed mid/upper-level low will continue to churn south of Hudson

Bay through the weekend. An associated trough embedded in the main

flow currently overhead will lift northeast of the region tonight as

a second jet max punches over the Great Lakes on Saturday. At the

surface, a relatively weak/diffuse cold front draped across the

Midwest will drop northwest to southeast across the area in the

Saturday PM/Sunday AM timeframe. High pressure will temporarily

build in on the backside of troughing to start next week before the

pattern looks to become more active through the middle of next week.



Forecast Details:



A boundary/low-level convergence axis apparent in latest obs with

north winds near Sault Ste. Marie and southwest winds across other

portions of the eastern U.P. will likely be the focus for shower

development later this afternoon. Relatively steep lapse rates,

mixed-layer buoyancy on the order of several hundred J/kg, and deep-

layer shear around 35 kts will contribute to support localized

thunderstorm potential near Whitefish Bay into this evening. While

gusty winds and small hail is possible with any stronger cells,

severe storms are not expected at this time. Shower/storm chances

will wane late this evening into tonight.



The primary focus for the forecast period will be the rounds of

showers and storms that are expected to begin early Saturday morning

and continue at times into Sunday morning. Warm advection/large-

scale ascent over the aforementioned front draped across the Midwest

will provide sufficient forcing to support showers/storms well to

our west this evening. Current expectation is that this activity

will hold together as it tracks east over Lake Michigan late tonight

into early Saturday morning. While precise location is still

uncertain, multiple rounds of showers/storms appear likely to track

across northern Michigan between M-72 and the Straits throughout the

day -- perhaps raining a majority of the daylight hours across the

wettest corridor of northern Michigan. While severe weather

parameters appear favorable on the surface (sufficient buoyancy,

strong shear w/ 0-3km BWD ~60kts and 0-6km BWD ~70kts), belief is

that storm mode will largely inhibit severe chances on Saturday.

That said, a few strong storms capable of producing strong winds and

hail cannot be ruled out. Primary concern with storms will be the

threat for localized heavy rainfall in excess of 1" by Saturday

night -- with the potential for some areas to see closer to 2" under

training heavy showers/storms. Chances for showers/storms will

gradually work south with time later Saturday into Sunday as the

front moves across the area, leaving mostly dry conditions in place

to end the weekend. On top of shower/storm chances, gusty southwest

winds may keep a high swim risk in place at some Lake Michigan

beaches Saturday -- mostly likely from Empire south.



Much cooler temperatures will also move in behind the front with

highs mainly staying in the 60s on Sunday. Temperatures look to

gradually warm through the first half of next week, though most

areas will stay a few degrees cooler than mid-June averages. Rain

chances also look to hold off through Monday before returning by

Tuesday/Wednesday.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...

Issued at 1109 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026



Weak front will drive some higher based cumulus into the region

today. Showers are expected with these increasing clouds, with

current trends supporting the most widespread showers this

morning targeting KPLN, with these showers slowly settling

south through the afternoon. May see some embedded thunderstorms

as well, although confidence in coverage of storms remains low.

Given uncertainties, will continue with minimal impacts from

these showers with this taf cycle...keeping conditions VFR and

only vicinity thunder mention. Of course, any heavier showers

will likely result in brief periods of MVFR conditions. Winds

becoming gusty out of the southwest today, decreasing in speed

this evening.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for MIZ025-

     031-088.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DJC

AVIATION...MSB






                

                        

398

ACUS11 KWNS 130443

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 130442

MOZ000-KSZ000-130645-



Mesoscale Discussion 1116

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1142 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026



Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into southwest Missouri



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 130442Z - 130645Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely in the coming

hours across east/southeast Kansas, eventually spreading into

southwest Missouri through the early morning. Large hail will be the

primary hazard, but this threat should remain sufficiently isolated

and transient to preclude watch issuance.



DISCUSSION...Over the past 20-40 minutes, a pair of incipient

thunderstorms have emerged within a deepening cumulus field from

near Emporia, KS southward to the OK/KS border. This is likely due

to the recent uptick in the nocturnal jet and isentropic ascent

evident in the KVNX and KICT VWPs, which both show a gradual uptick

in low-level winds and ground-relative SRH over the past couple of

hours. This shallow convection may also be influenced by a subtle,

but discernible, mid-level wave migrating southeast out of eastern

NE/IA towards KS/MO.



Recent RAP analyses and forecast soundings depict nearly uncapped

most-unstable parcels between 850-800 mb, which aligns with the

layer of increasing isentropic ascent noted in VWP observations.

Consequently, it appears that additional thunderstorm development is

likely over the next 1-3 hours across eastern KS. Modest mid-level

lapse rates and somewhat weak forcing for ascent will likely yield

gradually intensifying storms, but effective shear on the order of

30-40 knots should promote a few stronger, more organized cells

capable of producing large hail (possibly as high as 1.25 to 1.75

inches in diameter).



This activity is forecast to spread east into southwest MO with

time, though continued storm development and eventual clustering may

further modulate the coverage and intensity of the severe threat.

Given these limitations, watch issuance is unlikely at this time.



..Moore/Gleason.. 06/13/2026



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...



LAT...LON   37009460 37069585 37109644 37249673 37589691 38069693

            38509668 38849632 39029560 38949472 38719418 38509372

            38079339 37769330 37299337 37069355 36989370 37009460



MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN








                

                        

880

WGUS83 KAPX 092330

FLSAPX



Flood Advisory

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

730 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026



MIC119-137-100230-

/O.NEW.KAPX.FA.Y.0006.260609T2330Z-260610T0230Z/

/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

Montmorency MI-Otsego MI-

730 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026



...FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM EDT THIS EVENING...



* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is expected.



* WHERE...A portion of northern Michigan, including the following

  counties, Montmorency and Otsego.



* WHEN...Until 1030 PM EDT.



* IMPACTS...Minor flooding in low-lying and poor drainage areas.



* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...

  - At 730 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain. Minor

    flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in the

    advisory area. Between 1 and 2 inches of rain have fallen.

  - Additional rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inches are

    expected over the area. This additional rain may result in

    minor flooding.

  - Some locations that may experience flooding include...

    Atlanta, Hillman, Briley Township, Canada Creek Ranch,

    Hetherton, Royston and Clear Lake State Park.

  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood

deaths occur in vehicles.



&&



LAT...LON 4509 8448 4515 8436 4519 8427 4520 8388

      4516 8388 4503 8388 4497 8437 4497 8440





$$



HAD