Flooding Continues in Arenac County Along the Rifle River

                        

501

ACUS01 KWNS 120552

SWODY1

SPC AC 120550



Day 1 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1250 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025



Valid 121200Z - 131200Z



...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO

TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...THE UPPER

MIDWEST...SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND

PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible

today into tonight, accompanied by potential for severe hail and

wind across parts of the Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, the Texas

coastal plains into lower Mississippi Valley and a small portion of

the northern Mid Atlantic.



...Discussion...

Split westerlies across the mid- and higher latitudes of the eastern

Pacific into North America include broad, weak troughing across the

northeastern Pacific into British Columbia and the Pacific

Northwest.  Models suggest that this cyclonic flow may undergo some

amplification later today through tonight, as an embedded short wave

perturbation pivots into the Pacific Northwest, to the south of a

slow moving low near/offshore of the northern British Columbia

coast.



Downstream, short wave ridging is forecast to shift across the

Canadian Prairies and east of the northern U.S. Rockies.  However,

it appears a residual belt of (relatively) stronger flow will linger

above a stalled frontal zone across parts of the middle Missouri

Valley, into a confluent regime across the northern Mid Atlantic, to

the south of large-scale mid/upper troughing across the eastern

Canadian provinces.



It appears that seasonably high moisture content will largely remain

confined to the southern mid- and subtropical latitudes, where

ridging will remain suppressed, but westerlies will remain modest to

weak.  One larger-scale trough within this regime is forecast to

slowly shift east of the southern Great Plains and northwest Gulf

coast, toward the Mississippi Valley today through tonight.



...Northern Rockies into Upper Midwest...

Despite seasonably modest boundary-layer moisture, models indicate

that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse will become sufficiently steep to

support at least pockets of mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg,

along/south of the stalled frontal zone across the Big Horns and

Black Hills vicinity into the Upper Midwest, and within lee surface

troughing across/northeast of the Cheyenne Ridge.  Aided by forcing

for ascent and shear associated with a couple of smaller scale

mid-level perturbations/speed maxima (40-50+ kt at 500 mb)

progressing through the belt of westerly flow, the environment may

become conducive to organized convective development this afternoon

and evening.  This may include widely scattered supercells and small

upscale growing clusters posing a risk for severe hail and wind.



...Northern Mid Atlantic...

The development of mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg

also appears possible with daytime heating of a moistening

boundary-layer, along the southern slopes of the higher terrain of

north central through northeastern Pennsylvania by late this

afternoon.  Although forcing for ascent to support thunderstorm

initiation remains unclear, deep-layer shear beneath the southern

fringe of seasonably strong westerlies will likely be conditionally

supportive of organized convection capable of producing severe hail

and wind, before the instability wanes late this evening.



...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...

Downstream of the large-scale mid/upper troughing developing inland

of the Pacific coast, models indicate a generally weak but difluent

downstream flow will prevail across the southern Rockies.  There is

a notable signal within the model output that forcing for ascent

will become supportive of widespread thunderstorm development along

the Front Range and Sangre de Cristo Mountains by mid to late

afternoon.  Although propagation off the higher terrain will

probably be initially slow, due to modest downstream

destabilization,  model forecast soundings indicate that a warm and

deeply mixed boundary layer will become supportive of a few strong

downbursts to the lee of the higher terrain.  Consolidating and

strengthening outflow may support strengthening surface cold pools

with a continuing risk of strong to severe gusts into portions of

the adjacent high plains through this evening.



...Texas Coastal Plains into lower Mississippi Valley...

An increase in thunderstorm development gradually continues across

and east of the I-35 corridor of central Texas, aided by forcing for

ascent associated with a short wave impulse progressing through the

weak larger-scale mid-level trough.  It appears that this will

continue into the Texas coastal plain, where inflow of seasonably

high moisture content characterized by sizable CAPE may support

considerable gradual further intensification through 12Z.



To differing degrees, the various model output suggests that this

may be accompanied by a developing lower/mid-tropospheric cyclonic

circulation, and associated augmentation of the wind fields, that

will tend to advect north-northeastward toward the Ozark Plateau/Mid

South today.  Preceded by a developing corridor of moderately large

CAPE with daytime heating, it is possible that the environment could

become conducive to organizing convection with potential to produce

strong to severe surface gusts, and perhaps potential for a couple

of brief tornadoes.



..Kerr/Squitieri.. 06/12/2025



$$






                

                        

694

ACUS02 KWNS 120519

SWODY2

SPC AC 120518



Day 2 Convective Outlook

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025



Valid 131200Z - 141200Z



...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN

MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...



...SUMMARY...

Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the

central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.



...Synopsis...

A shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest during the

day and into the northern Rockies late, with an upper ridge building

from northern Mexico into AZ/NM. Meanwhile, modest westerly flow

aloft will exist over the Northeast as a weak disturbance moves

across AR/MO and into the mid MS/Lower OH Valleys.



At the surface, low pressure will exist across the Great Basin with

a southwest flow regime south of the upper trough, with a lee trough

along the length of the High Plains. Increasing boundary layer

theta-e will spread into the High Plains via southeast winds,

resulting in an elongated area of scattered severe storm potential

during the afternoon and evening.



...MT into the central High Plains...

Strong heating will occur over much of west-central/southwest MT,

and extending into WY CO and NM, as well as western NE/KS/TX-OK

Panhandles, resulting in steep lapse rates. Meanwhile, southeast

surface winds will bring moisture northwestward into the High

Plains, with a large area of moderate instability developing.



Storms are expected to form by 21Z over western MT, with additional

storms into eastern WY/northeast CO. These will likely produce hail

and areas of damaging wind. Other isolated storms are likely all the

way south into eastern NM/western TX.



Elsewhere, strong instability and ample moisture may result in

scattered strong storms over much of MO, AR, LA, MS and vicinity,

though the likelihood of ongoing early storms and outflows results

in low predictability at this time. Locally strong gusts may occur.



..Jewell.. 06/12/2025



$$






                

                        

235

NWUS53 KAPX 092235

LSRAPX



Preliminary Local Storm Report

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

635 PM EDT Mon Jun 9 2025



..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...

..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

            ..REMARKS..



0618 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     6 S Cathro              45.07N 83.57W

06/09/2025  M41 MPH          Alpena             MI   ASOS



            ASOS station KAPN Alpena - Phelps Collins

            Field.





&&



$$



JZ








                

                        

507

FXUS63 KAPX 120443

AFDAPX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Gaylord MI

1243 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Mild on Thursday with mostly dry weather.



- Cooler with periods of showers and storms Friday into Saturday.



- Warming up Sunday into the middle of next week with additional

chances for showers and storms.



&&



.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025



A compact surface low tied to the base of a shortwave trough aloft

is now departing northern Lower MI into Lake Huron. Brief residence

of the warm sector allowed temperatures to climb into the mid 70s

to mid 80s in the south/east with gusty southwest winds to 25

to 30 mph. Cold air advection behind this wave is evident in

visible imagery by the SE-ward spread of stratocumulus into the

Straits. Also apparent in the NW flow is a plume of elevated

wildfire smoke tracking over Lake Superior. Some haziness can be

expected as this arrives, but available surface obs and recent

runs of hi-res smoke models indicate that the bulk of this

plume will remain aloft through tonight.



The inbound cold air will continue to work across the rest of the

CWA this evening with a boost from the dense, cold air over the 38F

surface of Lake Superior. Temps drop rapidly into the 50s by

around sunset, eventually settling into the lower 40s in the

eastern UP and upper 40s to lower 50s in northern Lower tonight.

The surface frontal boundary will stall near the Ohio border

with the elevated 850-700mb front lingering over central Lower

MI. Jet entrance region dynamics engage this portion of the

front overnight as the upper trough reaches the ON/QC border,

bringing scattered light showers after midnight - mainly south

of M-72. A stray rumble of thunder is possible if upstream

convection holds together, but increasing static stability will

limit this potential.



Waning influence from the departing jet streak leads to a dry period

Thursday as high pressure strengthens over northern Ontario. This

maintains a stable profile with light northerly boundary layer wind.

The eastern UP sees mostly sunny skies while south of the bridge

sees a higher cloud fraction as the mid-level frontal zone lingers

nearby. Highs in the mid 60s near the lakeshores with lower to mid

70s inland.



&&



.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025



The elevated frontal zone remains stalled across Lower Michigan into

this weekend as the Canadian high pressure slowly spreads across

Ontario and eventually into Quebec. The next mid-level shortwave

drops out of NE Manitoba across northern Ontario on Friday with a

flare-up in the resident jet leading to another period of entrance

region dynamics setting up over the area Friday into Friday night.

This is accompanied by height falls and PVA as a second shortwave

arrives from the northern Plains. Scattered to numerous showers with

embedded thunderstorms spread in from the Midwest Friday morning and

likely continue into parts of the latter half of the day, though

confidence decreases with time. Much of this precip is likely to

organize into a relatively narrow band as the inbound forcing

contracts into a focused corridor of fgen along the elevated front.

Forecast totals through Saturday morning currently sit between a

quarter and three quarters of an inch, with room for adjustment as

additional hi-res guidance becomes available. Temperatures are

progged to dip into the 50s and 60s for highs Friday and Saturday

given abundant cloud cover.



Another passing wave maintains potential for unsettled conditions

into parts of Saturday, but eventually height rises will begin to

favor drier conditions Sunday with temps rebounding toward seasonal

normals. The weak mid-level ridge shows signs of transitioning

to flat/zonal flow early week leaving the area susceptible to

additional passing waves and attendant chances for precip.

Forecast confidence in timing these chances is low with the

current package.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1239 AM EDT Thu Jun 12 2025



VFR conditions are expected across all TAF sites through the

issuance period. Passing mid/high clouds tonight will continue to

slide east, likely leaving mostly cloud-free skies into this

evening. Mainly light north winds between 5-10 kts will be in place

today.



&&



.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



SHORT TERM...DTX

LONG TERM...DTX

AVIATION...DJC






                

                        

278

ACUS11 KWNS 120715

SWOMCD

SPC MCD 120714

TXZ000-120945-



Mesoscale Discussion 1259

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK

0214 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025



Areas affected...parts of south-central and southeast Texas



Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely



Valid 120714Z - 120945Z



Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent



SUMMARY...Numerous storms with some transient supercells expected

through the early morning hours.



DISCUSSION...A modest strengthening of a southeasterly low-level jet

has resulted in widespread storm development across southeast Texas

over the past hour. Relatively warm temperatures aloft and moist

conditions through the column should be a limiting factor to large

hail. However, intense water loading within these updrafts could

result in some strong downbursts capable of strong to severe wind

gusts. In addition, small but strongly curved low-level hodographs,

as sampled by the KHGX VWP, will support some tornado threat. The

lack of stronger deep-layer shear will likely limit the overall

threat and thus the need for a watch.



..Bentley/Hart.. 06/12/2025



...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...



ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...



LAT...LON   28119666 28209701 29219877 29479892 29779845 30069772

            30589638 30769586 30699526 30529464 30099437 29659432

            29479438 29079480 28489569 28259625 28179643 28119666



MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN