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000
FLUS43 KAPX 190730
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
330 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-200730-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
330 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The Rifle River near Sterling in Arenac County is expected to
remain above flood stage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is the potential for patchy freezing drizzle early Thursday
morning across northern Michigan.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 191931
SWODY1
SPC AC 191929

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Valid 192000Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through early Wednesday.

...20z Update...

The ongoing forecast is on track and changes are not needed. See the
previous discussion below for more details.

..Leitman.. 03/19/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019/

...Florida Keys vicinity...
A few thunderstorms will be possible across the Straits of Florida
through the afternoon.

...Southern Rockies...
A shortwave trough over the Black Hills will move south into Kansas
through 12Z Wednesday. Scant boundary-layer moisture amid steep
low/mid-level lapse rates in conjunction with post-frontal upslope
flow along the adjacent High Plains may aid in isolated thunder
occurrence during the late afternoon to early evening.

...California...
A shortwave trough will approach the California coast through early
Wednesday. The onset of mid-level height falls should overspread the
Central Valley and western Sierra Nevada this evening where limited
buoyancy might support a few thunderstorms. Otherwise, very isolated
thunder may accompany the trough as mid-level lapse rates steepen
near the central/southern coast in the early morning.

...Eastern Kansas/western Missouri...
A thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the region this
afternoon near an advancing surface low and front, although
worst-case thermodynamic profiles will likely remain only marginally
conducive for lightning generation. Thus, a very low
coverage/probability (10 percent or less) of thunderstorms is
currently perceived.

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 191723
SWODY2
SPC AC 191722

Day 2 Convective Outlook RESENT 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected over portions of California into
the southwestern U.S. on Wednesday. Additional isolated
thunderstorms may develop near the North Carolina coast Wednesday
night into Thursday morning.

...CA/Southwest States...
A mid/upper level shortwave trough will move inland across CA toward
the Southwestern Deserts by Thursday morning. Steepening midlevel
lapse rates will overspread much of CA into the Great Basin as
strong height falls/cooling aloft spread eastward. As forcing for
ascent increases, isolated thunderstorms will be possible. Gusty
winds and perhaps small hail are possible if a robust/sustained
updraft develops, however, instability is forecast to be very weak
(less than 250 J/kg MLCAPE) and severe storms are not expected.

...Coastal NC...
Further east, another mid/upper level shortwave positioned over the
central Plains Wednesday morning will shift east/southeast to the
central Appalachians by Thursday morning. Cold air damming across
the NC/VA Piedmont will limit deeper surface moisture surge on low
level westerly flow off the Atlantic, with near 60F dewpoints
remaining confined to the Outer Banks/coastal vicinity. However, a
few thunderstorms will be possible in warm advection regime as
steeper lapse rates/stronger height falls overspread the region
ahead of the upper trough. Severe storms are not expected.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None

..Leitman.. 03/19/2019

$$


468
NWUS53 KAPX 150559
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
159 AM EDT FRI MAR 15 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

1040 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 3 SSE EAST TAWAS 44.25N 83.46W
03/14/2019 M41 MPH IOSCO MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XTAW, 2 SE EAST TAWAS.

1140 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 7 NNE NORTHPORT 45.21N 85.55W
03/14/2019 M40 MPH LEELANAU MI MESONET

MESONET STATION GTLM4, 6 NE NORTHPORT.

0959 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE TRAVERSE CITY 44.74N 85.58W
03/14/2019 M40 MPH GRAND TRAVERSE MI ASOS

ASOS STATION TVC, TRAVERSE CITY - CHERRY
CAPITAL AIRPORT.

1130 PM NON-TSTM WND GST MACKINAW CITY 45.78N 84.73W
03/14/2019 M39 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI BUOY

BUOY STATION MACM4, MACKINAW CITY.

1042 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE ROSCOMMON COUNTY 44.35N 84.67W
03/14/2019 M39 MPH ROSCOMMON MI ASOS

ASOS STATION HTL, HOUGHTON LAKE - ROSCOMMON
COUNTY AIRPORT.

0412 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 SE GREILICKVILLE 44.79N 85.63W
03/14/2019 M39 MPH LMZ323 MI MESONET

MESONET STATION XELM, GREILICKVILLE.


&&

$$






626
FXUS63 KAPX 191940
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
340 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

...Clouding up from north to south...

High impact weather potential...none.

High pressure sits off the mid-Atlantic coast, while low pressure is
digging into far nw Ontario. That low (at 1009mb) will approach the
northern tip of Lk Superior by morning. Associated cloud cover will
expand southward into northern MI tonight, though it is considerably
less certain that precip will make it here before 8 am.

Pleasant late-winter/early spring day out there, with a burgeoning
cu field over n central/ne lower MI, some standing-wave mid clouds
over upper MI, and patchy/thin cirrus over top of all that. Thicker
cloud cover was noted just north of Superior. The cu will dissipate
with loss of diurnal heating this evening. Those thicker clouds
upstream will start to push into eastern upper MI after 9-10pm, far
northern lower MI toward midnight, and the rest of the area
overnight. Increasing low- and mid-level isentropic ascent/theta-e
advection (primarily at and below 700mb) in the warm sector of the
approaching clipper is the primary forcing mechanism. This forcing
is broad but not strong, and in the low levels we are lifting
initially dry air. We start to approach deeper saturation in
eastern upper MI after 5-6am. This is generally a little
slower/drier than the going forecast, and the new forecast follows
that trend, bringing a chance of snow to eastern upper MI very
very late tonight. Better pops will await the arrival of a sharper
forcing mechanism, which occurs later on Wednesday.

Definitely an opportunity for some radiative cooling in northern
lower MI before we cloud up. On the other hand, the pressure
gradient is tightening, and our starting point this afternoon is
relatively warm. Will still go a bit below guidance in n central and
ne lower MI. But that still keeps min temps mild, mid 20s to
lower 30s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

...Mild temperatures early then colder Friday, seasonal late winter
precipitation...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minor, with slowly warming
temperatures Wednesday and wintry pcpn making for some possible
slippery roads early, with a period of freezing drizzle possible
early Thursday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges: Precipitation type and chances
through the period.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...There will be several chances for pcpn
across the northern Great Lakes through the forecast period as a
couple of features drop south across the Great Lakes through Friday.
Additionally, an upper trough and slightly cooler temperatures will
develop over the nrn Lakes Wednesday and Thursday, before a sharper
trough colder mid lvl temperatures dig into the Great Lakes Friday.

Precipitation chances increase rapidly across northern Michigan
Wednesday as a sfc and upper level trough drop south across Lake
Superior. Mid lvl qvectors (850/500mb) shows strong convergence
developing across nrn Michigan through early Wednesday with forcing
diminishing greatly during the evening as the clipper slowly pushes
east. Model soundings showing significant mstr through the column
for widespread pcpn across the entire forecast Wednesday. Pcpn type
will be a little difficult as model soudnings show freezing lvls
bouncing around 700ft north which would suggest a wintry mix into
the evening for east Upper and Tip of the Mitt. Model soundings show
freezing lvls around 2100ft over the srn cwa thru Wed aftn, before
dropping quickly below 500ft during the evening, suggesting a rain
event through the afternoon for the srn forecast area before
transitioning to a wintry mix in the evening.

There is still some minor concern for patchy freezing drizzle over a
portion of nrn Michigan early Thursday as model soundings show
drying in mid and upper lvls while abundant mstr lingers trapped in
low lvls. Some light pcpn is then expected late Thursday afternoon
as a weak boundary drops quickly over the state. Some minor lake
induced snows are possible in favored northernly flow snow belts
Thursday night as sfc-850mb winds trend n/nw and mid lvl temps drop
to -12c on the backside of an exiting clipper. Overall Friday looks
dry and colder (afternoon temps in the 30s) with model soundings
showing extremely limited mstr through much of the column while
850mb temps fall to near -14c.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Widely varying temperatures with limited chances for precipitation
through the period. The Great Lakes and upper Midwest will be
largely dominated by high pressure during the forecast period which
will limit pcpn chances into the beginning of next week. However,
there is a small chance for pcpn Sunday night, the result of a weak
boundary dropping south over the state. Mild temperatures are
expected through the weekend due to weak upper ridging, with a
return to colder temperatures early next week as mid lvl temps fall
back to -12c in developing upper trough.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Quiet/VFR into this evening. LLWS overnight near Lake MI. Lowering
cigs Wednesday.

Northern MI is between high pressure on the mid-Atlantic coast,
and low pressure dropping into far northern Ontario. That low will
move sse, reaching northern MI late Wednesday. VFR this afternoon
into tonight, though as the low gets closer, LLWS develops near
Lake MI thanks to stronger sw winds off the surface. Precip
chances arrive Wednesday from n to s, with PLN the most likely
site to see a rain-snow mix during this TAF period. Conditions
will become MVFR toward midday Wednesday at PLN, and will be
approaching TVC/MBL at the end of the TAF period.

S to sw winds, mostly light. Some lake breeze contributions this
afternoon.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019

Low pressure nearing far nw Ontario is diving southward, and will
approach Lake Superior Wed morning. Sw winds will increase ahead
of the low. Wind gusts will approach advisory levels in spots, but
waves will more definitely get there, mainly from Leland
southward. Advisories will be posted there late tonight and much
of Wednesday.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM EDT
Wednesday for LMZ344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...SR
LONG TERM...SR
AVIATION...JZ
MARINE...JZ



000
ACUS11 KWNS 152340
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152340
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-160145-

Mesoscale Discussion 0222
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CDT Fri Mar 15 2019

Areas affected...Parts of central Maryland....southeastern
Pennsylvania...northern New Jersey...southeastern New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152340Z - 160145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A narrow line of storms may be accompanied by some risk
for potentially damaging wind gusts through about 8-9 PM EDT across
the northern Mid Atlantic Coast region, mainly west and northwest of
the Greater Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.

DISCUSSION...An evolving narrow line of generally low-topped
thunderstorm activity appears to have formed within lee surface
troughing, in response to an area of enhanced mid/upper forcing for
ascent and and lower/mid tropospheric cooling spreading to the east
of the Allegheny mountains. The latest Rapid Refresh suggests that
a secondary surface low may be in the process of forming across the
northern Mid Atlantic coast region into southern New England by this
evening.

Peak boundary layer CAPE appears limited to around 500 J/kg or so,
and should begin waning with the onset of radiational surface
cooling during the next couple of hours. So current vigorous
convective intensities are not anticipated to be particularly
long-lived. However, strongly sheared, 40-50 kt mean southwesterly
flow in the convective layer could still support some increase in
potential for damaging convective gusts through 00-01Z, before
storms begin to weaken.

..Kerr/Hart.. 03/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40457579 41477391 41337356 40917368 40207481 39467617
39347667 39497699 39707688 40457579