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000
FLUS43 KAPX 221921
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
321 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-231930-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
321 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across portions of northern
Michigan at various times from Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 230101
SWODY1
SPC AC 230100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this evening
into the overnight from eastern Wyoming east through South Dakota.
A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over the
southern High Plains.

...Eastern WY east through SD and into southern MN/northern IA...
A mid-level low over the Interior West will move little through
early Wednesday morning while a ridge remains downstream over the
Plains. Widely scattered thunderstorms over the High Plains will
gradually weaken during the evening as boundary layer instability
diminishes. In the meantime, an isolated hail/severe gust risk will
accompany the stronger storms. By mid-late evening, a strengthening
southerly low-level jet over the central Plains and isentropic
ascent in the vicinity of a warm frontal zone will likely lead to
the development of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms. A
marginal hail risk may develop with this activity late tonight.

...Southeast NM and Far West TX...
Isolated thunderstorms this evening will likely pose a localized
wind/hail risk for the next 1-2 hours. The 00Z MAF RAOB exhibited
steep low-level lapse rates but weak flow in the mid levels and
modest lapse rates above the boundary layer suggest the overall risk
will be short-lived/limited to the early evening.

Elsewhere, a convective line over the central Appalachians will
continue to progress eastward this evening. Cooling temperatures
will result in increased convective inhibition and storm intensity
will probably diminish further over the next hour or so.

..Smith.. 05/23/2018

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 221731
SWODY2
SPC AC 221730

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND VA/NC REGION...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ACROSS MAINE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon
across the High Plains and eastern portions of Virginia/North
Carolina.

...Synopsis...
Upper low currently centered over the western Great Basin will
gradually shift northeastward toward the central Rockies today while
becoming even more progressive/open on Wednesday. By 12Z Thursday,
the resulting shortwave trough will likely extend from central
Alberta into northeast MT. In response to this upper system,
cyclogenesis is anticipated across southeast MT with the resulting
low tracking northward across eastern MT Wednesday night/early
Thursday morning.

Farther east, upper ridging initially extending from the Southeast
into the Canadian Prairie provinces will build throughout the day
with some minor eastward progression. At the surface, expansive area
of high pressure will drift from the mid MS/lower OH Valley
northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes.

...High Plains...
Surface lee troughing coupled with persistent southerly low-level
flow will continue to encourage moisture return across the Plains
and High Plains. Additionally, southwesterly mid-level flow will
advect steep mid-level lapse rates into the region with the
resulting airmass characterized by moderate instability (i.e. MLCAPE
around 1500 J/kg). Vertical shear will be fairly weak across
southern portions of the region while slightly stronger mid-level
flow will contribute to modestly higher values across the central
and northern High Plains.

Forcing for thunderstorm development is a bit more nebulous with the
strongest height falls moving through northern portions of the area
early in the period before diurnal destabilization. Primary forcing
for convective initiation across the majority of the High Plains
will likely be surface convergence along the lee trough. There is
some potential for an outflow boundary across SD, resulting from
early period, mostly elevated storms, to provide an additional area
of convergence and lift.

Confidence in the intensity and coverage of thunderstorms is still
too low to increase severe probabilities above 5%. At this point,
the two most probable locations for a potential increase in
probabilities appear to be across eastern MT where a developing warm
front may enhance low-level vertical shear and across far
southeastern WY and adjacent portions of southwest SD and the NE
Panhandle where the strong surface convergence is forecast to align
with relatively higher instability and shear.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Cold front extending southwestward from southern NJ across central
VA to middle TN is expected to shift southeastward throughout the
day. Temperatures ahead of the front will likely reach the mid-80s
amidst dewpoints in the upper 60s, which is supportive of airmass
destabilization and modest instability. Vertical shear supports a
predominately linear multicell mode with isolated damaging wind
gusts possible as a result of water loading within the strongest
updrafts.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: 5% - Marginal

..Mosier.. 05/22/2018

$$


927
FXUS63 KAPX 230155
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
955 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Strong high pressure remains centered over the Western Great Lakes
region...resulting in clear skies and light winds across our
entire CWA. Little will change as we head into the overnight
hours. Some locations may see some patchy fog development very
late tonight...especially along some lakeshore areas. Expect a
cool night across the Northwoods as overnight lows fall into the
low to mid 40s.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

...Cool, with a bit of fog tonight...

High impact weather potential: Not much. Perhaps some locally dense
fog?

Pattern synopsis/forecast: High pressure and increasingly dry air
continue to build into the Great Lakes region this afternoon. Skies
are clearing as a result, especially across eastern upper and
portions of northwest lower Michigan.

Not much change heading through tonight, as center of high pressure
drifts slowly just to our west, while deep layer dry flow continues
aloft. Above sets the stage for another round of dry weather and
seasonably chilly conditions.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends and
addressing potential for a bit of fog tonight.

Details: Skies expected to continue to clear heading through the
remainder of this afternoon and early evening, leaving behind mostly
clear skies for the overnight. Solar induced deeper mixed layer
where skies have cleared has scoured out some of the low level
moisture. Same cannot be said for areas along and south of M-72
where lingering clouds has resulted in surface dewpoints remaining
in the lower 50s. This does set the stage for some fog development
down that way tonight as lows drop well into the 40s (exceeding
cross-over temperatures). Continued dry air entrainment should
prevent fog from getting too out of hand, but wouldn`t be at all
surprised to see some locally dense fog in some of those sheltered
locations. Now, despite overhead high pressure and attendant
light/calm winds, airmass is not quite as chilly and low level
moisture is not quite as thin as some of our previous ones, so
thinking temperatures will remain "mild" enough to prevent frost
formation. Still, could see some of our traditional colder locations
making a run into the upper 30s, with readings generally in the 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

...Rain chances begin Thursday night...

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: A large area of high pressure along with upper
level ridging will continue to dominate northern Michigan`s weather
through Thursday and provide precipitation free weather and warm
temperatures. Early Friday morning precipitation chances return as
warm air along with Gulf moisture rides up the western periphery of
said upper level ridging. The best synoptic forcing and deeper
moisture will be north of M-72. Highs will be in the mid 70s to low
80s Wednesday and Thursday...while Friday will reach into the mid
80s (mid 70s over eastern upper). Of course temperatures will be
cooler along the lake shores once lake breezes form during the
afternoons with daytime heating. Lows will be in the upper 40s to
low 50s Thursday morning and mid to upper 50s Friday morning. Winds
will continue to remain on the light side through the forecast
period as high pressure is overhead and pressure gradients remain
relaxed.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Rain chances continue through the holiday weekend and into Monday as
long range models continue to agree on an several short waves
sweeping through at various times. Won`t be a washout weekend, but
will be partly to mostly cloudy with periodic rain showers and some
thunder. Thunder/rain chances appear the greatest during the
Saturday/Sunday timeframe as the upper level ridge moves off to the
east...allowing chances for the entire forecast area. Highs will be
in the mid 70s to near 80 (eastern upper only in the upper 60s to
low 70s). Lows will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 709 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

Strong high pressure and dry air thru the column will remain
over the Western Great Lakes region tonight thru Wednesday...
providing clear skies and light winds. Some lake fog is expected
to develop late tonight into early Wednesday...impacting locations
right along some of the lakeshores...especially around MBL.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018

A weak pressure gradient in high pressure will hold over the
region through Thursday, resulting in little to no chances for any
wind or wave issues. The gradient does tighten later Thursday
night into Friday ahead of the next low pressure and chance for
showers and ultimately a chance for Thunderstorms. While prolonged
periods of rain is not expected, at least some showers and
thunderstorms look to continue through much of the upcoming
holiday weekend.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...MR
MARINE...MB



000
ACUS11 KWNS 222325
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222324
VAZ000-MDZ000-230100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0496
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Tue May 22 2018

Areas affected...Southern MD and southeast VA

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 116...

Valid 222324Z - 230100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 116
continues.

SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out, though the
overall severe-weather threat across the remainder of WW 116 is
expected to undergo a further diminishing trend.

DISCUSSION...At 2315Z, mosaic radar imagery showed a line of storms
extending from Dorchester County, MD into far southern MD (St.
Mary`s County) and far southeast VA (James City County), with this
line moving east at 25 kt. The environment immediately downstream
is gradually stabilizing per objective analyses, while stronger
shear that would support organized storms is located north of these
storms in northern MD to DE. Given the slow storm motion,
unfavorable thermodynamics and kinematics, and the onset of diabatic
cooling stabilizing the boundary layer, parts or most of the
remainder of WW 116 could be canceled early.

..Peters.. 05/22/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON 37287795 37927705 38717661 38637609 37887599 37307627
37177671 37227740 37287795