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FLUS43 KAPX 232016

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
416 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
416 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday across parts of northern
Lower Michigan.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit


ACUS01 KWNS 231927
SPC AC 231926

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Valid 232000Z - 241200Z


Severe storms are not anticipated across the U.S. today.


Only minor adjustments have been made to previous forecast which
remains largely on track.

..Dial.. 09/23/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018/

A midlevel shortwave trough will move eastward from the northern
Rockies to the northern Plains through tonight. Associated lee
cyclogenesis will occur today across southeastern WY and the western
NE Panhandle, while a surface front remains quasi-stationary from
southern SD to western MN. Though low-level moisture return will
remain limited, there should be sufficient moistening near/above the
surface to support some elevated convection late tonight in the zone
of ascent focused along the front.

Otherwise, a slow-moving front will persist from east TX to the
Ark-La-Miss and the TN Valley. A tropical moisture plume coincident
with the front and a series of weak midlevel perturbations will
again support scattered thunderstorms, mainly this
afternoon/evening. Poor lapse rates and relatively weak vertical
shear will preclude any threat for organized severe storms.


ACUS02 KWNS 231723
SPC AC 231723

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1223 PM CDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z



A strong thunderstorm or two may impact portions of the Tennessee
and lower Ohio Valley Monday afternoon and evening, accompanied by a
marginal risk for severe weather.


A positive-tilt upper trough currently over the northern Rockies
will advance east through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley
region Monday. A weaker southern-stream shortwave trough now over
the lower MS Valley will move northeast through the TN and OH
Valleys. The northern-stream trough will be accompanied by a cold
front through the upper MS valley. Farther south, the western
portion of a quasi-stationary front now from the Carolinas westward
into the TN Valley will lift north as a warm front into the OH
Valley region.

...Tennessee into the Ohio Valley...

A modest southerly low-level jet is forecast to develop in response
to forcing associated with the southern-stream trough, and this
feature will migrate northward through the TN and OH Valleys. A
moist warm sector with low 70s F dewpoints will reside in warm
sector south of the warm front, but weak lapse rates with areas of
clouds and ongoing rain within plume of deep subtropical moisture
will limit destabilization potential. Nevertheless, at least weak
instability with 500 J/kg MLCAPE will exist, and low-level
hodographs will increase in size along the low-level jet axis,
though flow through a deeper layer will remain weak. This
environment may support at least a marginal risk for a couple of
transient rotating updrafts and northeast-moving bowing segments
with primary threats being locally strong wind gusts and a brief

...Upper Mississippi Valley region...

Overall severe potential in this region appears very limited.
Widespread clouds, weak lapse rates and limited low-level moisture
with dewpoints in the 50s F will result in very weak instability
with MLCAPE near or below 300 J/kg. Showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms should develop within the zone of deeper ascent along
the cold front from MN into eastern SD, and this activity will be
embedded within a kinematic environment favorable for severe storms
with sfc-6 km shear around 40-45 kt. However, the very marginal
thermodynamic environment is expected to limit the severe threat in
this region.

Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None

..Dial.. 09/23/2018


NWUS53 KAPX 221423

1023 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

09/21/2018 EMMET MI PUBLIC





FXUS63 KAPX 231950

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
350 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

...Cloud Cover Issues...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Weakening high pressure and wedge of dry
air remains across lower Michigan, with clear to partly cloudy skies
still dominant south of M-32. To the north, cold front and narrow
corridor of cloud cover across the U.P. continues to sag through
the Straits/northern Lake Huron and into the tip of the mitt. APX
radar fine line sagging through the tip of the mitt depicts the
front and/or marine boundary or both. Winds at Pellston, Cheboygan
and Rogers City have increased and turned easterly along with a
lower cloud deck getting into those areas off the lake. Earlier
showers across the EUP have finally come to and end.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Cloud trends tonight.

Front still expected to stall across the far northern part of the
CWA, before eventually pivoting back into Canada as a warm front
later tonight as low level flow increases from the SE. But main
forecast problem centers around cloud cover trends as guidance
continues to suggest a fair amount of stratus continuing to expand
across a portion of N/NE lower Michigan tonight, aided by
increasing easterly flow and very modest shallow instability over
northern Lake Huron. Guidance might be a bit overly agressive, but
I have trended the forecast a bit more cloudy tonight for the
N/NE part of the CWA.

Temperatures tonight...warmer, given additional cloud cover and
increasing low level flow.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Small craft advisory winds will
remain through Tuesday morning. Possibility of strong thunderstorms
Tuesday, though better chances currently remain to our south.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: By Monday morning, high pressure will be
to our east, with flow turning more southerly through the day as low
pressure lifts towards Hudson Bay. This will advect in a warmer,
more humid airmass for the beginning of the week. Arrival of the
cold front attendant to the low lifting towards Hudson Bay has
slowed a bit with the latest runs, looking now to be later Tuesday
night. After a warm start to the week, temperatures will drop
sharply behind the cold front, returning to near normal values
across the CWA.

Primary Forecast Concerns: The potential for any stronger storms
Tuesday remains the primary concern over the short term. It looks
like the better potential will remain to our south, and the latest
Day 3 outlook from SPC agrees with this, as a marginal risk just
barely clips into Gladwin and Arenac counties. It seems likely that
in the southerly flow, convective development to our south will
result in plenty of cloudiness overspreading northern lower and
limiting development of instability. The environment has continued to
be marginal as it is, with only low to moderate CAPE in some
guidance. So while the chances are low at this point, the magnitude
of shear in place (40-50kts) will warrant keeping a close eye on
things through the afternoon and as the front approaches. Better
instability isn`t too far away, and if it does manage to spread
further north we could see a few stronger storms.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

After high pressure moving through the region Wednesday, and most of
Thursday, the pattern will again be quite active through the
weekend. Several disturbances will bring sporadic rain chances from
Thursday night through Sunday. Temperatures will remain near to
slightly below normal.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 211 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Cold front and shallow colder airmass is sagging across the
Straits and into the tip of the mitt this afternoon bringing
shallow MVFR stratus. Guidance forecasts suggest MVFR cloud cover
will set up and persist through the tip off the mitt (including
PLN and APN) this afternoon through tonight before mixing out on
Monday. So, have trended those terminal forecasts to MVFR

TVC/MBL should stay safely VFR through the duration.


Issued at 350 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018

Low level easterly flow continues to increase and expected to veer
SE tonight. This will lead to small craft advisory winds and/or
waves for a good portion of the lakes at least through Monday
night. Weather remains overall quiet through Monday with rain
chances Monday night into Tuesday.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.



ACUS11 KWNS 212304
SPC MCD 212304

Mesoscale Discussion 1494
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0604 PM CDT Fri Sep 21 2018

Areas affected...Eastern Ohio...western and central
Pennsylvania...western and central New York

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386...387...

Valid 212304Z - 220100Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 386, 387

SUMMARY...Mainly a damaging wind threat continues with storms along
a cold front. Gradual weakening is expected as the boundary layer
cools, and storms begin moving into a less heated/more stable
airmass. A wider warm sector in western/central Pennsylvania may
allow for storms with isolated damaging wind gusts to continue east
of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0386, and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
issuance downstream may be necessary.

DISCUSSION...Earlier semi-discrete storms have recently congealed
into a squall line, from ROC, down to LCK, with the corridor of
strongest storms (with a history damaging wind gusts) located from
just west of BFD to PHD. These storms have organized in a kinematic
environment characterized by 50-60 knots of bulk effective shear,
with up to 250-300 m2/s2 effective SRH noted in northwest PA into
western NY. Despite the favorable shear environment, the airmass
downstream of the squall line (central PA to central NY) is more
stable, with surface temperatures mainly in the low 70s, owing to a
stratus deck which has limited insolation.

As such, the squall line is expected to traverse a more buoyant
airmass for the next few hours, characterized by surface
temperatures in the lower 80s and MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg. During
this time, storms may continue to produce damaging wind gusts and
perhaps exhibit transient low-level rotation (given the strong
low-level speed shear in place). Thereafter, a weakening trend is
expected given the cooler temperatures to the east and the
cooling/decoupling of the boundary layer overall.

The buoyant warm sector between the ongoing squall line and a more
stable airmass to the east is narrower in New York as opposed to
western and central Pennsylvania. Storms may continue past the
eastern bounds of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 0386 with at least an
isolated damaging wind threat and an additional Severe Thunderstorm
Watch issuance may become necessary in a few more hours.

..Squitieri/Grams.. 09/21/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 40098211 40668190 41428057 42487904 43337784 43817645
44247538 43967495 43417492 42097615 41227696 40377816
39947927 39978099 40098211

WUUS53 KAPX 210332

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1132 PM EDT THU SEP 20 2018

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
West central Chippewa County in eastern Michigan...
Northwestern Mackinac County in eastern Michigan...

* Until 1230 AM EDT.

* At 1132 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles south of
Corinne, or 18 miles northwest of Saint James On Beaver Island,
moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Brevort, Trout Lake, Hulbert, Corinne, Epoufette, Garnet,
Naubinway, Gilchrist, Eckerman, Engadine, Fibre, Rexton, Gould
City, East Lake, Batty Doe Lake, Garfield Township and Loon Lake.


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a


LAT...LON 4616 8467 4601 8504 4606 8518 4606 8524
4609 8533 4608 8538 4610 8543 4608 8545
4609 8552 4603 8560 4597 8565 4597 8587
4608 8587 4625 8569 4625 8524 4649 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 229DEG 35KT 4596 8570