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263
FLUS43 KAPX 141531
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1031 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-151200-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
1031 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report snowfall amounts to the National
Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord
Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$



000
ACUS01 KWNS 141234
SWODY1
SPC AC 141233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0633 AM CST Wed Nov 14 2018

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Discussion...

A quick moving midlevel trough in the northern branch of a split jet
will continue to move east into the Atlantic Ocean. In the trough`s
wake, a surface front is draped across the northern portion of the
Florida Peninsula. Farther west, a closed low within the southern
branch of the jetstream will deepen across Arkansas as it moves from
near Texarkana to near the Missouri Bootheel. As this midlevel low
deepens, a weak surface low should develop across the northeast Gulf
of Mexico this afternoon along the residual front. Although a truly
closed surface circulation may not develop, increasingly westerly
component of the low-level wind field on the cold side of the front
will allow it to begin moving east toward the Florida Peninsula.
This should increase low-level convergence along the front enough to
support a few thunderstorms across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and
eventually (potentially) across the northern Florida Peninsula. If
confidence in land-based thunderstorms across the northern Peninsula
increases, a small window for strong thunderstorms may exist as
modest instability and long, straight hodographs would support a
marginal severe wind threat. However, given the anticipated time of
day (late evening) and the bulk of the deep-layer flow parallel to
the front, confidence in this scenario remains too low for
probabilities.

Overnight, more robust surface cyclogenesis is expected to occur
along the residual front over the coastal waters of southeast
Georgia. In response to this cyclogenesis, the surface front should
begin to lift northwest, approaching coastal areas of the Carolinas
by Wednesday morning. Strengthening wind fields will result in a
strongly sheared warm sector to the southeast of the front, posing a
risk for supercell thunderstorms. However, at this time, it appears
the warm sector should remain offshore until after at least
12UTC/7AM EST on Thursday.

..Marsh.. 11/14/2018

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 140507
SWODY2
SPC AC 140507

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1107 PM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
NC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential will exist across eastern North Carolina Thursday.

...Eastern NC...

Latest short-range model guidance is in better agreement regarding
the evolution of an upper low as it migrates across the lower MS
Valley and ejects into the middle Atlantic by the end of the day2
period. Intense 12hr mid-level height falls will develop ahead of
this feature across the southern Appalachians during the day and
this should encourage a surface low to form off the SC coast, then
deepen as it lifts north-northeast off the NJ coast by 16/12z. This
scenario should allow modified maritime tropical air mass to
approach coastal NC ahead of the low, perhaps advancing inland such
that near-surface based buoyancy will develop within a strongly
sheared environment. Will maintain 5% severe probs for the
possibility of a few supercells developing across eastern NC. If a
true warm sector is able to move inland then the probability of
tornadoes will increase accordingly; otherwise, locally damaging
winds may be noted with this activity.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 5% - Marginal
Hail: <5% - None

..Darrow.. 11/14/2018

$$


414
NWUS53 KAPX 141245
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
745 AM EST WED NOV 14 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0700 AM SNOW 2 W SAULT STE. MARIE 46.49N 84.40W
11/14/2018 M7.6 INCH CHIPPEWA MI CO-OP OBSERVER

24 HR SNOWFALL. CO-OP SSMM4.


&&

$$






000
FXUS63 KAPX 141526
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1026 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Large area of strong high pressure is centered from the Western
Great Lakes thru the Mid Mississippi Valley into the Southern
Plains late this morning. Building subsidence and arrival of drier
air is leading to a steady diminishing trend in all remaining lake
effect snow showers across the Western Great Lakes...and expect
this diminishing trend will continue this afternoon. All precip
should come to an end by early this evening once the surface
ridge axis shifts east of Michigan and WAA begins ahead of our
next system. Have dropped remaining Winter Wx Advisory for
Chippewa county...with only an inch or less of additional snow
accumulation expect for the rest of the day.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...A well deserved break in the active weather coming...

High impact weather potential: Just some lingering light snow
accumulations this morning, especially across eastern upper Michigan.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Elongated trough axis and core of coldest
temperature anomalies on there way out, as large area of surface
high pressure builds into the region. Despite subtle warming aloft,
conditions remain more than cold enough to continue to drum up the
lake processes, with this especially being the case across Lake
Superior where maximized fetch length and enhanced low level
converge along lake aggregate troughing is helping compensate for a
lowering subsidence inversion and loss of that synoptic scale
support. The result, still some decent multi-bands rotating into
eastern upper Michigan, with transient snowfall rates likely
approaching an inch per hour at times. Further south, lake snow
intensity and organization on a notable downward trend across the
northwest lower lake belts, a result of a much shorter fetch and
complete disconnect from Lake Superior contribution.

Large scale features will continue to remain quite progressive today
and tonight, allowing mid level heights to rebound and upstream
surface high pressure to build directly across the Great Lakes. This
not only sets the stage for an end to the lake snows, but will
likely allow at least some areas to see quite a bit of sunshine by
this afternoon.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Additional snow accumulations
this morning and attendant headline concerns, especially across
eastern upper Michigan.

Details: High pressure to build rapidly into and through the region
today, exiting off to our east by this evening. This will put an end
to any meaningful lake snows as we head through the morning and
afternoon hours. Still looking like a short window early this
morning for some better bands to rotate into Chippewa county as lake
aggregate trough axis and attendant low level convergence is
maintained. May see another inch or two, particularly north of M-28.
Will leave inherited advisory as is for now, although would not be
surprised to see this headline cancelled a bit earlier than its
current 1 pm end time. Definitely not expecting much additional
accumulation across northwest lower Michigan, and plan is to expire
current set of headlines with, or shortly after, the forecast
package release.

Winds back to southwest this afternoon, with just enough very
shallow instability to perhaps drive a few flurries off Lake
Michigan into the Tip of the Mitt counties and eastern upper
Michigan. Otherwise, drying is rather aggressive, with definite
signs that shallow moisture tied to sinking subsidence inversion
will mix out heading through this afternoon. Always hesitant this
time of year to be too aggressive clearing skies, but gotta believe
skies will trend to partly cloudy, if not mostly sunny, through this
afternoon, especially the further south one goes. Development of
weak warm advection and increasing sunshine will help temperatures
recovery a bit, with highs today ranging from the upper 20s to lower
30s (these still are well below normal for this time of year).

Southwest flow only intensifies further tonight as high pressure
advances into New England by morning. Extremely dry low levels and
continued warming should limit any lake moisture contribution,
although wouldn`t be surprised to see some very shallow strato-cu
rotate off Lake Michigan into eastern upper. Moisture tied to
northeast moving southern stream wave looks to remain well off to
our south. Upshot to the above, a rather remarkably quiet night
across the northwoods. Maintenance of light southerly flow and that
deepening warm air advection will prevent temperatures from tanking
too much, with overnight lows in the upper teens to middle 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

...Quiet Thursday with light precipitation heading into Friday...

High Impact Weather Potential...Perhaps some light freezing drizzle
across a portion of northern Lower Thursday night, particularly
northeast Lower.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Surface ridging associated with high
pressure centered over the Northeast will provide fair weather over
northern Michigan on Thursday. A cutoff low lifting through the
Ohio Valley Thursday night will open up as it assimilates with a
system riding up the East Coast. Deformation banding on the backside
of this wave will spread into northeast Lower Thursday night, only
to be quickly displaced by a potent Clipper system on Friday. Colder
air will progressively wrap in behind this departing system Friday
afternoon.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Precip chances Thursday night into
Friday.

Models have been trending more towards deformation banding spreading
some light precipitation across northeast Lower Thursday evening.
Forecast soundings initially show a relatively shallow moist layer
just off the surface, especially northwest of the deformation axis.
This may lead to some freezing drizzle for a time Thursday night,
but not expecting this to produce any significant impacts. Low level
moisture still looks somewhat limited heading into Friday, but it
should be deep enough for light snow showers (minimal accumulations)
transitioning to rain showers as the clipper system moves through
and temperatures warm through the 30s. However, large scale lift is
unimpressive with this system, and so is QPF. Will limit most areas
to only chance PoPs. Not a strong influx of cold air behind the
departing wave, so lake influences will be minimal.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Models have been trending less impressive with regard to potential
lake effect snow this weekend, as the coldest H8 air is generally
progged to stay just to our north over Ontario. There will still be
some lake influence through the weekend into early next week,
particularly affecting eastern Upper with occasional showers
affecting northwest Lower. However, activity looks to be far from
robust. Another clipper system may brush northern Michigan on
Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 627 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

Gradual improvement across the taf locations today and tonight as
high pressure builds through the region. Ongoing relatively high
based lake induced clouds and light snow showers will scatter out
through the morning, leaving behind decreasing clouds from
southwest to northeast this afternoon. Mainly clear skies expected
tonight. Light winds through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EST Wed Nov 14 2018

After a brief reprieve today, southwest to south winds will
be on the increase tonight, with these gusty winds continuing right
through Thursday evening. Strongest winds will target northern Lake
Michigan and Whitefish Bay. Current trends support a high end small
craft advisory event, although wouldn`t completely rule out an
isolated gale force wind gust or two.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
Thursday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MR
NEAR TERM...MB
SHORT TERM...MK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MB
MARINE...MB


375
ACUS11 KWNS 131307
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131306
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-131700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1644
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0706 AM CST Tue Nov 13 2018

Areas affected...northeastern Vermont into western Maine

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 131306Z - 131700Z

SUMMARY...Snowfall rates will increase this morning to between 1-2
inches per hour across portions of northeastern Vermont into western
Maine.

DISCUSSION...Precipitation is ongoing across much of the Northeast
within a broad warm-air advection regime to the north of a
developing Mid-Atlantic cyclone and to the east of a midlevel
trough. Within this warm-air advection regime, strong frontogenetic
forcing in the lower troposphere is focused across southern New
England. This will lift northward later this morning as the surface
low moves northeast along the coast. Temperatures across northern
Vermont and into Maine should remain cold enough to support snow as
the predominant precipitation type through the day. Thus, as the
higher precipitation rates associated with the lower-tropospheric
frontogenetic forcing arrive, the result will be several hours of
1-2 inch per hour snowfall rates, with higher rates possible on
small space/time scales. Snowfall rates should begin to decrease
this afternoon as the low begins to move away from the area.

..Marsh.. 11/13/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...

LAT...LON 44167137 44307249 44917281 45787059 46936970 46196842
44836992 44167137