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FLUS43 KAPX 161932

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
332 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Emmet-
Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-
Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-
Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa-
Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac-
Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island-Beaver Island-Charlevoix-
332 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Through tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms across portions of
northern lower Michigan Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit


ACUS01 KWNS 170101
SPC AC 170100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Valid 170100Z - 171200Z



Severe thunderstorms are most likely across a large part of central
Texas through evening, wind damaging wind and hail the main threats.
Other severe storms are expected from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic State through early evening.

...Central Texas...
Widespread storms over northeast and east TX have cooled much of
that area, with an outflow boundary extending from central into
southeast TX as of 01Z. A moist and very unstable air mass remains
south of these boundaries and is currently fueling severe storms
from Irion to Kimble to Bell counties. Shear profiles remain weak
especially aloft, but large instability with steep lapse rates aloft
will support large hail initially, with isolated significant hail
reports possible. In time, numerous storms may congeal into an MCS
which will travel southeastward with a damaging wind threat.

For more information see mesoscale discussion 1099.

...Ohio Valley to the Delmarva...
Numerous storms currently exist along the Ohio River, mainly
oriented east-west along an outflow boundary and parallel to the
upper flow. The exception is a leading line segment which is moving
from eastern KY into WV, which is oriented more favorably for
damaging wind potential. The air mass downstream remains
sufficiently unstable to sustain these storms, although a gradual
weakening trend is expected into the evening.

Farther east, the IAD 00Z sounding shows a semi-favorable wind
profile for severe cellular storms capable of mainly hail, with
effective SRH around 150 m2/s2. A small time window exists in this
area for a few severe storms, but the threat will also decrease
through the evening here. If storms over WV can sustain into this
area, a few strong wind gusts will be possible.

..Jewell.. 06/17/2019


ACUS02 KWNS 161728
SPC AC 161728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Mid
Atlantic into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and mid Mississippi Valley
on Monday. Other strong to severe storms will also be possible over
portions of the southern/central High Plains.

...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...
Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the eastern U.S. on
Monday as a subtle shortwave trough moves eastward into the
Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front should be
located from northern Ohio extending eastward across Pennsylvania
with a moist airmass south of the boundary. Model forecasts suggest
that moderate instability will develop across much of Virginia and
Maryland where surface dewpoints will be in the upper 60s to near 70
F. Thunderstorms that initiate along the front around midday should
move east-southeastward into the stronger instability across the
Mid-Atlantic during the afternoon. NAM forecast soundings in
Maryland and northern Virginia have MLCAPE values peaking around
1500 J/kg in the late afternoon with 0-3 km lapse rates reaching the
7.5 to 8.0 C/km range. This combined with 30 to 35 kt of 0-6 km
shear should be sufficient for isolated damaging wind gusts. The
greatest potential for wind damage will be along the leading edge of
multicell line segments.

Further west across the Ohio and Mid Mississippi Valleys, some
destabilization is forecast to take place on Monday from southern
Illinois into southern Indiana and western Kentucky. As low-level
convergence increases along pre-existing outflow boundaries,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected by midday. Although
deep-layer shear is forecast to be marginal for severe storms,
low-level lapse rates should steepen enough for isolated strong wind

...Central and Southern High Plains...
An upper-level trough will be in place across the western U.S. on
Monday as zonal westerly flow remains over the southern and central
Rockies eastward into the High Plains. At the surface, a lee trough
will strengthen during the day as a mesoscale low develops across
southeastern Colorado. Low-level moisture is forecast to be
maximized from northeastern Colorado into Nebraska where surface
dewpoints should be in the mid 50s F. As surface temperature warm
during the day, thunderstorms will develop in the higher terrain and
move eastward into the lower elevations of northeastern Colorado.
Thunderstorms should also develop further to the northeast along a
zone of low-level convergence in western Nebraska. Forecast
soundings along the corridor at 00Z/Tuesday show SBCAPE values
reaching the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35
kt. This would be sufficient for a few severe storms associated with
the stronger multicells that move eastward across the central
Plains. Isolated large hail and wind damage would be the primary

Further south across the southern High Plains, convective
development is expected to remain isolated mainly due to the warmer
air aloft. However, steep low-level lapse rates could be sufficient
for few strong wind gusts with cells that can develop during the
late afternoon.

Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight

..Broyles.. 06/16/2019


NWUS53 KAPX 151716

116 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

0116 PM HEAVY RAIN 3 ESE ELMIRA 45.05N 84.79W
06/15/2019 E1.40 INCH OTSEGO MI PUBLIC




FXUS63 KAPX 170311

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1111 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Issued at 931 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Cool high pressure continues to build southward out of Canada into
Northern Michigan late this evening in the wake of a departing low
pressure system. Some light rain showers are still falling across
southern sections of our CWA along and south of M-55...but these
showers will be ending over the next couple of hours as subsidence
and drier air take over. Much of our CWA will become mostly clear
overnight...with the exception of our far southern CWA where some
bkn VFR cigs will remain overnight. Expect another cool night
across the Northwoods with overnight lows falling into the 40s.


.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Broad mid and upper level troughing
encompasses much of the northern Conus early this afternoon.
Subtropical moisture plume and active baroclinic axis now displaced
well to our south as weak surface high pressure builds into the
northern Lakes. Embedded weak shortwaves within broader troughing
responsible for a few showers across the western Great Lakes, with
one convectively enhanced wave (from much earlier upstream
thunderstorms) now cutting northern lower Michigan. Just enough
attendant forcing and moisture to kick off a few sprinkles/very
light showers, although the vast majority of the area remains dry
with just some passing mid level clouds. A somewhat cool afternoon
by mid June standards, with current temperatures mostly in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Of course, light east winds are resulting in a bit
cooler conditions near Lake Huron.

Earlier mentioned weak Canadian surface high expected to continue to
build south, likely to be centered right across our area by Monday
morning. Combine that with development of some mid level ridging
ahead of digging northern Plains wave...and a dry, seasonably chilly
night is in-store for the northwoods.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges tonight: Addressing any
lingering light shower potential the remainder of this afternoon and
overnight cloud/temperature trends.

Details: Any lingering light showers will come to an end by early
this evening. Development of those surface and mid level high
pressures will also help scatter out the clouds overnight, with
mostly clear (north) to partly cloudy (south) expected. Light/calm
winds and those clearing skies will help drive a decent nocturnal
temperature response, with lows by morning ranging from the middle
40s to lower 50s.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Slight chance of thunderstorms across
portions of northern lower Michigan Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Two cutoff upper-level lows are expected
to be evident across NOAM come the start of the period Monday
morning with the initial wave spinning across Quebec and the
secondary low trekking along the Manitoba/North Dakota border. This
secondary wave is expected to become sheared out as it shifts east,
but may provide enough lingering synoptic support for a few light
showers at times heading into Tuesday. Otherwise, mainly tranquil
sensible weather is expected through midweek as high pressure
remains in control across much of the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Low end shower chances.

Fairly tranquil conditions expected across northern Michigan Monday
as high pressure continues to gradually sag into the region from the
north. Partly sunny skies and light winds are anticipated as high
temps top out in the low-mid 70s...generally a couple degrees below
mid-June normals.

The aforementioned second wave near the Manitoba/ North Dakota
border will slowly become absorbed by larger scale parent energy
over Quebec late Monday into Monday night. However, lingering
forcing for ascent may be enough to kick off a few scattered showers
across eastern upper late Monday night into Tuesday morning,
although would expect most areas to remain dry. Perhaps a few
additional showers developing across interior northern lower due to
a combination of aforementioned lingering energy passing overhead
and lake breeze development expected off of both Lake Michigan and
Huron. The GFS is by far most bullish with the idea of shower
development, and will likely hinge on the amount of moisture able to
pool across area prior to enough lift arriving from the weakening
wave aloft and/or lake breeze development during the afternoon
hours. None the less, will introduce a slight chance of showers
Tuesday afternoon across inland northern lower. High temps Tuesday
topping out in the mid-upper 70s for most...cooler across eastern
upper and nearest the big lakes.

Perhaps a few showers and/or storms possible once again during the
day Wednesday, primarily inland once again given expected lake
breeze development once again. Perhaps a little bit of added forcing
nearby as low pressure slowly begins to creep toward the Great Lakes
from the mid-Mississippi Valley. High temps again in the 70s area-

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now.

Occasional shower chances continue at times through remainder of the
week into next weekend as several systems pass through the Great
Lakes and/or Ohio Valley. However, plenty of dry time is expected as
well, which will be not be well represented in the gridded forecast
as nearly every period will be littered with some sort of small
shower chance, while fully knowing that many locations may very well
stay completely dry through this time frame.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

High pressure and drier air will continue to build into Northern
Michigan overnight in the wake of departing low pressure. VFR
conditions are expected at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites
overnight thru Monday night as subsidence strengthens in an
increasingly dry airmass. Winds will remain under 10 kts and
generally from the NE over the next 24 hours.


Issued at 153 PM EDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Outside of a few passing light showers at times, no
significant marine concerns for the next several days. Light
pressure gradient will likely result in afternoon lake breeze
development the next few afternoons.





ACUS11 KWNS 170430
SPC MCD 170429

Mesoscale Discussion 1100
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 16 2019

Areas affected...TX Hill Country

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390...

Valid 170429Z - 170530Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 390

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts will probably focus
mainly over the TX Hill Country and the San Antonio/Hondo area
during the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic during the past hour has shown an
evolution towards upscale growth into a small cluster northwest of
San Antonio. Other smaller updrafts near Junction have exhibited a
weakening trend. Surface observations show temperatures in the
lower 80s degrees F near I-35 with a moisture-rich boundary layer.
Expecting a gradual lessening in hail potential with existing storm
activity as instability lessens during the late evening into the
early overnight. The risk for severe gusts will probably remain for
the next 1-2 hours with the storm cluster near San Antonio given the
supportive mesoscale environment.

..Smith.. 06/17/2019

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 30680001 29869976 29099927 29119831 29629828 29999872