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FLUS43 KAPX 170737

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
337 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
337 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

There is another chance for thunderstorms across all of northern
Michigan Friday and Saturday afternoons.


Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:



For more information visit


ACUS01 KWNS 171631
SPC AC 171630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z


Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds are possible over the
Northeast States through early evening. Scattered severe storms are
also expected across parts of the central High Plains during the
late afternoon and evening.

...Northeast States/southern New England...
Bands of east/northeastward-moving storms continue to intensify at
midday from eastern PA/southeast NY into southern New England within
a warm conveyor and zone of differential heating in advance of an
eastward-moving cold front. Weak mid-level lapse rates and modest
strength effective shear of 20-30 kt are still expected to limit the
overall magnitude of today`s severe. However, steep low-level lapse
rates and ample moisture content will nonetheless contribute to some
severe risk. Damaging winds including scattered downed trees will be
the most common hazard before storms weaken and/or move offshore by
early evening. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 1064/1065 for
additional details.

...Central High Plains...
Weak height falls and a moderate strengthening of west-northwesterly
winds aloft will occur across the region in advance of a shortwave
trough progressing from eastern ID/southern MT into WY. 30-40 kt
500-mb westerlies attendant to this feature will overspread much of
WY with mid-to-late afternoon storm initiation expected off the
higher terrain. In the presence of MLCAPE ranging from 1000-2000
J/kg, speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer should be
sufficient for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts
being the primary hazards. Some upscale growth may occur this
evening with storms spreading southeastward across the region with a
continued damaging wind/sporadic hail risk.

...KS/OK to the Ozarks/ArkLaTex...
The remnants of an overnight weakening MCS continue to spread
southeastward over southeast KS at midday. The related MCV may help
semi-focus afternoon-intensifying thunderstorms across eastern OK
into parts of the Ozarks and ArkLaTex. Microburts capable of
localized damaging winds are possible through the afternoon.

Farther west/northwest across portions of northern OK/far southern
KS, MCS-related outflow may gradually stall and modify across the
region this afternoon with a hot/well-mixed air mass to its south.
Although overall forcing will be weak, at least some severe risk,
including the possibility of a few transient supercells, may exist
particularly along the corridor of modified outflow presuming storms
redevelop. This region will be reevaluated this afternoon for any
need of a Slight Risk upgrade.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 07/17/2018


ACUS02 KWNS 171729
SPC AC 171728

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1228 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z


Severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Central
Plains on Wednesday, with a primary threat of large hail and locally
damaging wind.

A midlevel trough is expected to amplify on Wednesday as it moves
southeastward from the northern High Plains into portions of the
Upper Midwest by the end of the period. A surface low is expected to
track eastward across the southern Canadian Prairies, while a
secondary surface low may form across portions of the southern
Plains. Between the two lows, the surface pattern will be rather
nebulous across the central Plains, with a surface trough and
perhaps one or more outflow boundaries expected to be in place by
the afternoon.

...Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley...
A considerable amount of uncertainty remains regarding the severe
thunderstorm potential across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley
region on Wednesday, though a conditionally favorable environment
will likely develop across portions of this region during the
afternoon. For areas that are not disrupted by overnight convection,
light low-level southeasterly flow will maintain relatively moist
surface conditions, with sufficient heating to support moderate
instability (MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg) despite seasonably cool
conditions. Effective shear of 35-45 kt will favor some organized
storm structures, with a few supercells possible capable of large
hail and locally damaging wind. One or more clusters may eventually
evolve as well, posing a somewhat greater damaging wind risk
potentially lasting well into the evening. Confidence in any one
particular scenario is low, but the consensus of HREF guidance and
larger-scale environment forecasts favor a local maximum in the
severe threat across central NE into northern KS, where a Slight
Risk has been introduced.

...Ozarks Vicinity...
One or more thunderstorm clusters may be ongoing Wednesday morning
from southeast KS into the Ozarks. To the south and west of any
outflow boundaries related to such activity, a very moist and
strongly unstable (MLCAPE of 2500-3500 J/kg) environment is expected
to develop during the afternoon, with minimal convective inhibition
expected during peak heating. While deep-layer flow will not be
particularly strong, weak southeasterly low-level flow veering to
modest northwest flow aloft will support effective shear of 25-35
kt, sufficient for some organized storm structures. At least
isolated instances of severe wind and hail will be possible with the
strongest storms.

Tornado: 2% - Marginal
Wind: 15% - Slight
Hail: 15% - Slight

..Dean/Peters.. 07/17/2018


NWUS53 KAPX 161950

350 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

0330 PM HEAVY RAIN 1 W OSSINEKE 44.91N 83.45W




FXUS63 KAPX 171442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1042 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High pressure centered across northern Minnesota will be in
control of the weather across the region today into Wednesday.
However...there is some cloudiness moving in from the north per
GOES-16 visible satellite imagery. Plus it will be unstable enough
aloft to produce some cumulus clouds inland through mid-afternoon.
So went ahead and increased cloudiness some but only to partly
cloudy. Forecast highs in the lower and middle 70s look on track.
Lastly, it will be a bit breezy due to some wind aloft mixing
down to the surface.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Yesterday`s cold front continues to bring in cooler and less humid
air to nrn Michigan. PWATS have fallen to around 0.70", H8 temps
ranged from +9C in eastern upper, to the low teens toward Saginaw
Bay. At 925mb, temperatures ranged from 15C north to 17C south.
Skies were clear, outside of a band of mid level clouds in nrn lower
Michigan that was dissipating with time. These clouds were brought
on by a shortwave rotating through the Great Lakes, ahead of a dry
secondary cold front moving into nrn Michigan attm. Temperatures
have fallen into the mid and upper 50s. High pressure was centered
over srn Manitoba and was heading our way.

The aforementioned high pressure will continue to track toward nrn
Michigan, settling in almost overhead by daybreak Wednesday. NW
winds may be just a little gusty today, before going light/near calm
overnight. The continued cold advection will ultimately take H8
temperatures down to +8C/+9C most everywhere, while 925mb readings
will be +15C to +17C. With lake temperatures +19C/+20C, this results
in delta T`s that almost get to where lake clouds might be entering
the picture. Some hi-res guidance is actually hinting at this
occurring. There will at least be some moisture flux off the Great
Lakes to result in a shallow cu field, downwind of the Lakes. Doubt
anything will go mostly cloudy based on fcst soundings, so it`s
generally going to be mostly/partly sunny today with high
temperatures in the lower to mid 70s most areas, upper 70s in
downsloping region of NE lower. Lows tonight will fall to expected
mixed out dewpoints today, in the mid and upper 40s.


.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Wednesday through Thursday night

Wednesday will see the center of a Canadian high passing over nrn
Michigan. This will result in another quiet and dry day with mostly
sunny skies. Lake breezes should develop given the light surface
winds and overall light synoptic flow ahead of a shortwave ridge
poking over the great lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Winds
start to shift out of the south into Thursday as the shortwave ridge
axis passes overhead and the surface high pushes east. Warmer air
moves in for Thursday, with highs creeping back up into the low 80s.
Thursday also sees an upper level low moving from the northern
Rockies toward Lake Superior...with its associated surface low set
to track from the Dakotas toward the the UP on Friday. Moisture
increases rapidly Thursday night into Friday, bringing an increase
in cloud cover ahead of this next system.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Potential for rain throughout much of

An upper level jet around 80 knots will be positioned over the
northern Rockies late week, supporting the development of a potent
surface low in its left exit region. This system will bring good
rain chances from Friday through Sunday. Many things still need to
be pinned down with this sytem including intensity and exact track
of the low as it wobbles over Michigan. How long the low lingers
over the area will depend on how progressive the system is which in
turn depends on the strength/placement of the ridge off the Atlantic
coast...and whether or not the low phases with energy dropping down
out of canadian flow over Hudson Bay. Things dry out to start next
week as the low starts to slowly pull away from the area.
Temperatures should be seasonable in the mid to upper 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 647 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

High pressure in srn Canada will track SE and center itself over
nrn Michigan late tonight. NW winds behind yesterday`s cold
frontal passage will be just a little gusty today, before going
light/near calm overnight. Skies will be mostly clear over the TAF
period, but the cold advection is likely to draw moisture off the
Great Lakes and manifest itself into a shallow low end MVFR/VFR


Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Yesterday`s cold frontal passage have turned winds out of the NW,
while also still continuing to draw in much cooler air. The pressure
gradient is tight enough into this evening while there is some
shallow overlake instability, to result in lower end small craft
advisory winds over Whitefish Bay/St. Marys and most of the Lake
Huron nearshore waters. High pressure will settle in over the region
late tonight, before exiting east with a southerly return flow
developing Wednesday night through Thursday. No wind/waves issues
over this time.


LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ346>348.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.



ACUS11 KWNS 171720
SPC MCD 171720

Mesoscale Discussion 1066
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1220 PM CDT Tue Jul 17 2018

Areas affected...Far southeastern Kansas...southwest
Missouri...northeast Oklahoma...far northwest Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 171720Z - 171915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A line of strong to severe storms in southeast Kansas and
northeast Oklahoma will be capable of isolated strong/severe wind
gusts this afternoon. Overall threat coverage will likely remain
low. No WW is anticipated.

DISCUSSION...A line of strong/severe storms from Neosho County, KS
southward into Craig County, OK will continue to push eastward into
a modestly unstable environment with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Latest
KSGF VAD profile shows 25-30 kts of 0-6 km shear and, with the
increasing influence of an MCV to the west, the downstream
environment should remain marginally supportive of storm
organization. While further surface heating may somewhat hindered by
anvil cirrus overspreading much of the area, RAP forecast soundings
suggest that this line of storms should be sustained for a least a
few more hours with isolated convective downbursts possible. Given
the likelihood of the threat remaining isolated in nature, no WW is
anticipated at this time.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 07/17/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 37899557 37919468 37589355 37229316 36619337 36249343
36089358 36019413 36139477 36389512 36589565 37369588

WUUS53 KAPX 161822

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
222 PM EDT MON JUL 16 2018

The National Weather Service in Gaylord has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Central Alpena County in northern Michigan...

* Until 300 PM EDT.

* At 221 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Lakewood to near The Town Of Hubbard
Lake, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Alpena, Ossineke, The Town Of Hubbard Lake, Ossineke Township and
Devils Lake.


For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a


LAT...LON 4502 8327 4508 8338 4500 8347 4494 8344
4489 8334 4491 8333 4486 8333 4490 8377
4519 8338 4519 8332 4517 8336 4507 8331
4504 8327 4505 8322 4504 8323 4504 8320
4503 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 274DEG 21KT 4517 8329 4495 8358