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000
FLUS43 KAPX 152114
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
414 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-162115-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
414 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Freezing drizzle mixed with snow showers will expand across
northern Michigan this evening. This will lead to slick roads
overnight, especially across northern Lower Michigan. Please see
the winter weather advisory for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Accumulating lake effect snow is likely at times across the typical
snowbelts of eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan Thursday
night into the weekend.

Wind chill temperatures are expected to drop to well below zero
at times Saturday night into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and
rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be
made one of three ways:

Online: weather.gov/gaylord
Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord

Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


000
ACUS01 KWNS 151939
SWODY1
SPC AC 151938

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE COAST IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...SUMMARY...
A brief tornado and locally damaging wind gusts will be possible
between 2 to 8 pm PST from Santa Barbara to Los Angeles counties in
coastal southern California.

...DISCUSSION...
No changes are made to the outlook for this issuance.

..Broyles.. 01/15/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019/

...Southern California...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough located around 200 WSW of VBG will
reach Santa Barbara county late this afternoon before shifting
farther inland this evening. Convection along the coast downstream
of this wave will remain low-topped through at least early
afternoon. Thereafter, steepening mid-level lapse rates from west to
east along with further low-level moistening should support a period
of meager MLCAPE below 500 J/kg impinging on the coast. This will
yield potential for about a 6-h window of isolated thunderstorms.
Increasing speeds along with veering of the wind profile with height
should foster an enlarged hodograph with effective shear possibly
reaching 35-45 kt. This would support a risk for a supercell or two
capable of a brief tornado and locally damaging gusts near the
immediate coast.

$$


000
ACUS02 KWNS 151702
SWODY2
SPC AC 151702

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Tue Jan 15 2019

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are likely late Wednesday across parts of
northern and central California.

...DISCUSSION...
A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will move eastward into the
Mississippi Valley on Wednesday as a couple of shortwave troughs
move across the western U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough
will approach the West Coast. Strong large-scale ascent, steep
mid-level lapse rates and enhanced low-level flow ahead of the
trough will make conditions favorable for a few thunderstorms across
northern and central California Wednesday night. Instability will be
too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere across the CONUS,
thunderstorms are not expected.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None

..Broyles.. 01/15/2019

$$


000
NWUS53 KAPX 101418
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
918 AM EST THU JAN 10 2019

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0830 AM SNOW 3 ENE KINGSLEY 44.60N 85.48W
01/10/2019 M2.5 INCH GRAND TRAVERSE MI COCORAHS

COCORAHS STATION MI-GT-21, 2 ENE KINGSLEY.
24HR TOTAL THRU 7AM.

&&

$$

SWR



000
FXUS63 KAPX 152137
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
437 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

.NEAR TERM...(Through Tonight)
Issued at 407 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

...Slick travel and gusty winds tonight...

High Impact Weather Potential...Slick roads expected tonight as
light icing will likely be more widespread than last night across
northern Lower. Light snow will also cause slick travel.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...A near-saturated boundary layer has
allowed patchy light drizzle, freezing drizzle, and snow showers to
linger across a portion of northern Lower Michigan today, despite
very little in the way of forcing over the region. Drier air to the
north has kept eastern Upper largely precipitation-free up to this
point per surface observations. Expect this activity will expand
heading into the evening as the low levels moisten up a bit, likely
more than they did last night. This will occur out ahead of a
deepening surface low passing by just to the north of Lake Superior.
Forecast soundings show the top of the moist layer will continue to
flirt with the -10C isotherm for the next several hours until colder
air eventually invades late this evening, changing the light wintry
mix entirely over to snow showers. Expect conditions will
deteriorate pretty quickly after 7pm as the first wave of more
widespread precipitation arrives, quickly putting down a light glaze
of ice on untreated roads and other surfaces through around
midnight, especially across northwest Lower. Snow amounts will have
less impact, as we`re only looking at up to an inch across northern
Lower, slightly more across eastern Upper. But combined with already
slick roads and plummeting temperatures overnight, expect a rather
messy travel setup. Activity will transition to lake effect snow
showers late tonight, gradually diminishing in intensity heading
towards daybreak Wednesday.

Winds will be the other issue heading into tonight, and we`re
already starting to see them ramp up in the tightening pressure
gradient over our northwest zones. Gusts up to 30 mph will be
possible, likely a bit higher along the coasts and especially across
eastern Upper where the tightest pressure gradient will set up
around midnight. Aside from blowing snow and reduced visibility
concerns later tonight, this will occur as temperatures plummet well
into the teens, leading to a quick freeze up of any lingering
moisture on area roads. Perhaps even a few readings in the single
digits across eastern Upper. Wouldn`t rule out some isolated power
outages in the higher wind gust areas, but don`t expect snow and ice
to be a factor.

All these impacts considered, decided to hoist a winter weather
advisory for northern Lower tonight through the morning commute on
Wednesday due to the higher potential than last night for more
widespread slick travel. While forecast ice accumulations are low
(<0.1"), it doesn`t take much for this to cause travel impacts. The
greatest impact is expected to be across northern Lower, as eastern
Upper will be quicker to turn over to all snow with only light
accumulations expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 407 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

...Cold with some lake effect...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Pops and snow accumulations Thursday
night.

Perhaps a few lingering north northwesterly flow lake effect snow
showers Wednesday with only minor accumulations. Otherwise, surface
high pressure and associated drier air will move into the region
from the northwest diminishing activity. Another trough and
associated arctic cold front will then bring snow showers to the
region late Thursday into Thursday night with northwest and
eventually north northwest flow lake effect developing once again.
Accumulations are expected to be generally on the order of an inch
or two (again limited by the lack of moisture).

Colder Wednesday with highs ranging from the middle teens north to
the middle 20s south. Lows Wednesday night in the single digits
above zero. Not as cold Thursday with highs in the middle and upper
20s. Lows Thursday night ranging from the upper single digits to the
middle teens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 407 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

...Seasonably cold then brutally cold...

High Impact Weather Potential...Low to moderate for low wind chill
temperatures Saturday night and Sunday.

Lingering lake effect snow showers Friday, otherwise the story will
be the coldest air of the season which will dive into the Great
Lakes this weekend. Meanwhile, a strong southern stream wave will
pass by well to our south across the northern Tennessee
Valley/southern Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night. Model
trends have been slightly farther north with this system and far
southern counties of our forecast area could possibly get into the
northern fringe of the snow. In addition...there will likely be some
lake effect/lake enhancement Saturday out of the northeast with
northerly flow lake effect Sunday. The main limiting factor still
looks like a lack of moisture, though the Grand Traverse Bay region
stands to possibly get a few inches of snow Sunday into Sunday
night. Temperatures will go from cold to brutally cold with some
spots not rising above the single digits for highs Saturday and
Sunday. In addition, wind chill temperatures will plunge to well
below zero at times. Temperatures then look to slowly modify early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 122 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

Patchy light freezing drizzle and isolated snow showers still linger
across portions of northern Michigan with MVFR cigs, but the odds
are low for this impacting any terminal through this afternoon.
Low level moisture will increase a bit heading into late afternoon
ahead of a system dropping through Ontario. This will bring a
greater chance of freezing drizzle and snow showers this evening,
which will transition to lake effect snow showers overnight as
temperatures begin to drop. Cigs may briefly drop to IFR in some
spots overnight, but MVFR should be the general rule. SW winds
will ramp up this evening, becoming gusty overnight and veering to
the NW as the system passes by to our north. NNW winds will then
slowly diminish Wednesday morning, allowing for some lingering
light lake effect snow showers.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 434 PM EST Tue Jan 15 2019

A strengthening area of low pressure will pass by to the north of
Lake Superior this evening, driving a strong cold front through
the Upper Great Lakes. In response, the pressure gradient will
significantly tighten up over the region this evening, with
increasing southwesterly winds veering northwest as the front
pushes through. Gale force gusts will quickly develop early this
evening, lingering through much of the night before winds begin
to slowly diminish around daybreak Wednesday. High pressure then
builds in through Wednesday night.

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 10 AM EST Wednesday for MIZ016>036-
041-042.
LH...GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>348.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ349.
LM...GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
LS...GALE WARNING until 6 AM EST Wednesday for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MK
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...MK
MARINE...MK


000
ACUS11 KWNS 130855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130854
MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-131300-

Mesoscale Discussion 0019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0254 AM CST Sun Jan 13 2019

Areas affected...Central Virginia and Maryland...including southern
portions of the Washington D.C./Baltimore metro area

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 130854Z - 131300Z

SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snow now developing across parts of
central Virginia and Maryland is expected to persist through mid to
late morning, with rates (around or in excess of 1 inch per hour)
likely maximizing in the 6-10 AM EST time frame.

DISCUSSION...A broadly cyclonic 50-70+ kt 500 mb jet streak
continues to gradually develop eastward across the northern Gulf
Coast states, with its exit region now beginning to nose to the lee
of the southern Appalachians, toward the southern Mid Atlantic coast
through mid to late morning. It appears an associated broad area of
strong upward vertical motion will include a period of strengthening
lower/mid-tropospheric frontogenesis across Virginia and adjacent
portions of the Mid Atlantic.

Across central Virginia into adjacent portions of central Maryland,
where temperature profiles are expected to remain entirely below
freezing, models indicate that lift may begin to become maximized
within the favorable mixed-phase layer for dendritic ice crystal
growth by daybreak, and continue through mid to late morning. Aided
by relatively high precipitable water content (up to around .70
inches), one or more bands of heavy snow, at rates around or in
excess of 1 inch per hour, appear possible. Forecast soundings
suggest that this may persist for a 3-4 hour period at any
particular location, generally in a narrow corridor from the
vicinity of the Blue Ridge, north of Roanoke VA, east/northeastward
through southern portions of the Greater Washington D.C./Baltimore
Metropolitan Area.

..Kerr.. 01/13/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 38287888 38517861 38657841 38977644 38497624 37937809
37697891 37767939 38087930 38287888