National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Quick Links:
Latest Information
Weather Story
Latest Weather Story
Local Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Latest Watches/Warnings/Advisories
National Watches and Warnings
National Watches and Warnings
Regional Radar Loop
Latest Watches/Warnings/Advisories
Mesoscale Discussions
Current Mesoscale Discussions
Latest Weather Map
Latest Weather Map
Recreational Forecast
Expected Weekly Hazards
Weekly Hazards

Rip Currents/Water Temperatures/Beach Forecasts

All About Rip Currents Local Radar Information
Latest Beach/Surf Forecasts 
Latest Lake Water Temperatures
Latest Lake Water Temperatures


Severe Weather Outlooks
Day 1
Day 1 Forecast
Day 2
Day 2 Forecast
Day 3
Day 3 Forecast
Day 1 Wind/Hail/Tornado Threats
Day 1 Wind Threat
Day 1 Wind Threat
Day 1 Hail Threat
Day 1 Hail Threat
Day 1 Tornado Threat
Day 1 Tornado Threat
Days 2-8 Threats
Day 2 Combined Threats
Day 2 Combined Threats
Day 3 Combined Threats
Day 3 Combined Threats
Days 4-8 Outlook
Days 4-8 Outlook
More About Severe Weather Probabilities
Latest SPC Mesoanalysis Graphics


Storm Reports
Last 3 Hours
Storm Reports in the Last 3 Hours
Today's Reports
Today's Storm Reports
Yesterday's Reports
Yesterday's Storm Reports


Product Browser 

FLUS43 KAPX 211939

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
Issued by National Weather Service MARQUETTE MI
339 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
339 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.


Spotter activation is not anticipated.


For more information visit


ACUS01 KWNS 220100
SPC AC 220059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z


A few thunderstorms will continue this evening across parts of
central and northern California and the Great Basin.

Evening raobs, convective/lightning behavior, and latest satellite
and surface observations all confirm prior expectations for limited
heating, and thus meager CAPE to persist through the afternoon and
into the evening across the northern Central Valley of California.

Despite the limited CAPE, strong low-level and deep-layer shear is
indicated across the region. This has allowed a few
organized/rotating low-topped storms to evolve, in a narrow band
near and to the north of Sacramento. Radar-indicated updraft
circulations suggest that funnel clouds -- or perhaps a very
brief/weak tornado -- may occur over the next 1-2 hours until storms
diurnally weaken. However, very limited potential -- both in terms
of intensity and areal coverage -- does not appear to warrant
introduction of a risk area.

..Goss.. 03/22/2018


ACUS02 KWNS 211655
SPC AC 211654

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 AM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z


Isolated weak thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of
the West.

Eastern CONUS troughing will be slow to progress eastward, leading
to some amplification of the upper ridging across the Plains as a
shortwave trough moves across the Intermountain West. Surface
pattern east of the Plains will be dominated by high pressure and
offshore flow, leading to stable conditions. Lee troughing across
the High Plains will deepen, with the resulting tightening of the
surface pressure gradient supporting increased southerly winds
across the southern and central Plains. Some moisture return is
anticipated as a result, but given that moisture was scoured out
with the previous frontal passage, the better low-level moisture
(i.e. dewpoints in the low 60s) will remain across south TX.

Farther west, mean upper troughing will deepen throughout the day as
several shortwave troughs eject through the basal portion of the
mean trough. Forcing for ascent supported by these shortwaves as
well as resulting cool temperatures aloft will support enough
instability for isolated thunderstorms from the central CA coast
northeastward into the northern Rockies. Backed low-level flow may
support modest updraft rotation across portions of the Sacramento
Valley during the afternoon. However, limited instability is
expected to result in transient updraft strength, tempering the
overall severe potential. A couple of rotating storms are also
possible immediately along or off the OR coast Thursday evening.
Again, as with areas farther south, limited instability will
moderate any severe threat.

..Mosier.. 03/21/2018


FXUS63 KAPX 220312

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1112 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Issued at 1011 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Little to no adjustments to the forecast tonight. A slowly
departing higher level cloud shield will lead to a mostly
clear/clear skies, while sfc winds continue to lighten up (many
areas have gone calm already). Temperatures will tumble a little
faster with the clearing, and the developing good radiational
cooling conditions will lead to lows in the teens in most areas.
Low 20s in coastal areas of nrn lower.


.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Dry and seasonal conditions persist...

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Deep upper level trough remains over
the Great Lakes region; however, the heights are steadily on the
rise by midday Thursday. Closer to the surface high pressure
continues to influence the sensible weather over the region, and
keeping dry weather with slightly sub-seasonal temperatures for
Northern Lower Michigan and far eastern Upper Peninsula.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Cloud cover and overnight low temps,
leading into high temps Thursday.

The lack of a strong pressure gradient remains over the region,
which is resulting in light winds. Expect after sunset this
evening winds will further diminish to around 5 to 10 mph from the
north. Thin cirrus shield overhead tonight may help to keep
temperatures slightly warmer in a few spots, otherwise still
expect temps to fall into the teens across the interior locations
and lower 20s closer to the shoreline. Then temps Thursday will
rebound into the lower 30s, to slightly warmer across the
southeast forecast area where temps could push into the mid 30s.


.SHORT TERM...(Thursday night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Continued dry weather...

Primary Forecast Concern...Increasing clouds late Saturday but
continued dry.

Minimal changes from prior thinking with high pressure keeping a
lock on the region and providing minimal cloud cover until mid-
weekend. This coupled with a slightly cooler thermal gradient
overhead will keep surface temps in the 30s for the afternoon and
allow overnight lows to radiate into the teens across the
interwar to the 20s along the shoreline.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

...Warming trend with possible precip early next week...

Ensembles continue to demonstrate minimal spread amongst members
in the longer term periods, with a ridge pushing over the Great
Lakes region. This will keep a steady warming trend in the
forecast with highs approaching the mid/upr 40s to perhaps the 50s
Tue. A shortwave is progged to lift northeast towards the area
late Mon into Tue, with moisture steadily approaching from the
southwest. The best chance for precip appears to be Tue, but the
concern is on precip type. Presently temps may be warm enough to
support all rain; however, with a frontal boundary possibly
slipping through Tue aftn/eve, temps could transition precip over
to a rain or snow mix.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1112 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

VFR through the TAF period. Higher level cloud shield will
gradually depart east/thin out tonight. Light N/NW winds through
the period.


Issued at 340 PM EDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Light winds from the north/northeast, with waves subsiding to
less than 2 ft in most locations.




NEAR TERM...Beachler
SHORT TERM...Beachler
LONG TERM...Beachler

ACUS11 KWNS 220057
SPC MCD 220057

Mesoscale Discussion 0165
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Wed Mar 21 2018

Areas affected...Northeast New Jersey...New York City...Long
Island...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 220057Z - 220700Z

SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall will develop from northeastern New Jersey
northeastward into southern New England this evening. Snowfall rates
are expected to reach 1 inch per hour with locally higher rates in
some locations.

DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low
centered over the Mid-Atlantic region. A pronounced dry slot is
located off shore and is wrapping around the northeastern periphery
of the upper-level system. A deformation zone is located along the
leading edge of the dry slot from just off the New Jersey coast
northeastward to just near the southern coast of Long Island. This
band is being supported by a low-level speed max of 40 to 50 kt
which is just offshore from southern New England and oriented
parallel to the coast. In response, isentropic lift is maximized
across the MCD area and short-term model forecasts suggest that this
environment will be maintained this evening into the early overnight
period. Heavy snowfall with 1 inch per hour rates will be possible
from the Newark, New Jersey and New York City areas over the next 2
to 4 hours. This heavy snowfall will spread northeastward into
southern New England later this evening as the upper-level system
continues to east-northeastward drift. Snowfall rates could locally
exceed 1 inches per hour within the heaviest part of the band.

..Broyles.. 03/22/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 41747052 41237163 40717274 40177396 40287434 40567450
40937421 41687291 42297103 41747052