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000
FLUS43 KAPX 180834
HWOAPX

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
334 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-
042-190845-
Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
Oscoda-Alcona-Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-
Gladwin-Arenac-
334 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Accumulating snow is anticipated portions of northwest lower
Michigan Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

&&

For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord.

$$


847
ACUS01 KWNS 181631
SWODY1
SPC AC 181630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1030 AM CST Sun Nov 18 2018

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible over coastal south Texas, but
no severe weather is expected.

...TX coastal plain...
Thunderstorm potential today will be relegated to the TX coastal
plain and offshore waters through tonight. This will be near/ahead
of a southeastward-moving cold front that will begin to stall along
and off the coast by tonight. While a few weak/transient supercells
could occur off the lower/middle TX coast, weak lapse rates/buoyancy
inland along with modest strength low-level winds suggest that
severe potential will be negligible over inland areas.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 11/18/2018

$$



000
ACUS02 KWNS 180600
SWODY2
SPC AC 180559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 PM CST Sat Nov 17 2018

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Upper pattern, characterized by western CONUS ridging and eastern
CONUS troughing at the beginning of the period, is expected to
gradually shift eastward and undergo modest deamplification. Several
shortwave troughs will traverse the southern periphery of the
eastern CONUS troughing, helping to send a reinforcing push of cold
air into the central and eastern CONUS.

Consequently, cool and stable conditions will prevail across the
majority of the lower 48 states. The only exception is along the TX
and LA coasts where a stalled cold front may interact with modest
low-level moisture to support showers and thunderstorms. Meager
instability will preclude any severe threat.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado: <2% - None
Wind: <5% - None
Hail: <5% - None

..Mosier.. 11/18/2018

$$


749
NWUS53 KAPX 162044
LSRAPX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
344 PM EST FRI NOV 16 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0344 PM SNOW STERLING 44.04N 84.02W
11/16/2018 E6.0 INCH ARENAC MI TRAINED SPOTTER

24 HOUR TOTAL.


&&

$$

JZ




000
FXUS63 KAPX 181516
AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1016 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Morning composite analysis reveals broad westerly flow and a fairly
tight N-S thermal gradient in place across the Great Lakes,
associated upper jet streak stretches from the Midwest through New
England. Elongated surface high pressure sits across lower Michigan
north of a stalled front through the Ohio Valley to the Atlantic
coast. Further north, low pressure is over Hudson Bay with an arctic
boundary arcing down through Ontario north of Lake Superior. Upper
jet entrance region forcing along aforementioned thermal gradient
north of the stalled front continues to produce a narrow corridor of
snowfall across far southern lower Michigan into Ohio.

Here at home, still dealing with the final remnants of WSW flow lake
cloudiness and flurries across a good part of the CWA, especially
the tip of the mitt/Straits region. But dry air/subsidence does seem
to be getting the best of the lingering lake effect with thinning
cloud cover and diminishing returns on radar.

Rest of today should be relatively quiet overall with thinning/
diminishing cloud cover for most and temperatures clawing their way
to the upper 20s to lower 30s (still a good 10 degrees below
normal). Meanwhile, arctic boundary to the north will be pressing
down across Lake Superior to just north of the U.P. by evening and
eventually sagging down into and stalling through the Straits region
by morning. Clear signal for a thin line of snow to develop along
the front especially out across SE Ontario where stronger synoptic
forcing and steeper low level lapse rates will reside. Weaker signal
further west. But combined with Lake Superior instability, there may
be a thin line of enhanced snowfall pressing into northern Chippewa
county by late afternoon into the evening.

Tonight, as mentioned, arctic boundary looking to sag into and
stall through the Straits region. There will be another northern
stream short-wave dropping southeastward out of south-central
Canada and into the far western Great Lakes toward morning that
will begin to spread some light snowfall into northern Michigan.
Bigger forecast concern is degree of enhancement we see through
northern Chippewa county and in the vicinity of the stalled
boundary through the Staits/tip of the mitt due to enhanced low
level convergence and over lake instability. Will need to consider
whether or not there is enough there to warrant a headline
heading into Monday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Large/broad scale upper level troughing was seen across all but the
west coast early this morning, with one sheared out shortwave
pressing into the Central Plains and Southern Rockies, and another
one associated with a cold front pressing into Ontario. At the sfc,
high pressure in the heart of the country extended through the Great
Lakes and into much of the Atlantic coast. Satellite, RUC analysis
and radar all showing the dry air associated with this high
pressure. Radar returns in WSW low level flow was weak to say the
least (dry near sfc air and inversion heights between 3.5-4.0kft),
and skies were clearing outside this flow regime. Temperatures have
plummeted where it has cleared, with many areas in the single digits
to teens.

The sfc high pressure and dry air will sag south today, while the
Ontario shortwave works it`s way toward Quebec. This shove it`s cold
front southward and into Lake Superior. The WSW low level flow will
continue to provide some very light fluffy snows into at least this
morning, but fcst soundings suggest that the dry air may end the
white stuff (I`ll believe it when I see it). Low level winds veer
more west heading into this evening, with still not much in the way
of weather. However, the cold front itself will be associated with a
band of snow, which drops into Chippewa county by late this evening.
This could be an impressive "Snow Squall", as it does start to get
enhanced by deepening moisture ahead of an incoming shortwave.
Inversion heights climb to 6-6.5kft, and there is plenty of overlake
instability. At the same time, hi-res data even suggesting that
another area of low level convergence develops from far nrn lower
Michigan through far nrn Lake Huron. The LES environment isn`t as
impressive as up in Chippewa county, but another band of snow is
certainly possible. The shortwave and weak sfc reflection themselves
will bring system snow, driven by DPVA and WAA, but the total deep
layer -divQ does look to be weakening heading through the overnight
hours. Minimal snowfall today, but starting late tonight (and
through Monday), we may need a winter weather advisory for a handful
of counties across far northern/NW lower Michigan. Can see 1-2
inches there, and around Whitefish Point in Chippewa county.

Highs today will be in the upper 20s in eastern upper, to the lower
half of the 30s in nrn lower. Lows tonight will probably occur in
the evening, as the skies thicken in clouds through the night,
stabilizing the temperature drop. Readings will generally be in
the teens to lower 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating snow Monday.

Cyclonic flow within low amplitude troughing persists over the Great
Lakes region with ridging continuing in the west. A clipper system
drops through the northern plains sunday night and head towards the
upper Great Lakes on Monday. This system drags a cold front through
nrn Michigan on Monday, with a band of higher moisture and large
scale life near the front supporting synoptic scale snow. Overlake
instability with delta-T`s of 19 C will contribute to lake
enhancement through the day. Could see accumulations of 2-4"
across far NW/nrn lower Michigan, and when combined with Sunday
night`s snowfall (see near term discussion), we could be seeing
the need for a winter weather advisory. Low level winds veer
through the day, focusing the snow bands from the Straits region
southward through the day. By Monday evening the boundary should
be south of the CWA, ushering cold dry air out of Canada on
northerly winds. This will focus the best snowfall near and south
of Traverse Bay overnight. Tuesday will bring high pressure
sliding through the Ohio Valley and another clipper system lurking
through the southeastern Canadian Plains into Ontario. Between
these two, winds back to westerly then southwesterly through the
day Tuesday, focusing lake bands back northward with time, ahead
of the next fast moving clipper Tuesday night into Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Forecast concerns: Minimal.

Wednesday remains in cold cyclonic flow with more snow showers
possible. Heights start to rise early Thursday morning as the
western ridge starts to push eastward. 850 temperatures rise above
freezing for Thanksgiving day, as a warm front moves northward over
the area. Friday and Saturday could bring high temperatures in the
low and possibly mid 40s across most of the area. Another system
lifting out of the central Plains has the potential to bring some
snow-melting rain on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 631 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Lake effect clouds/showers diminishing today.

Strong high pressure in the northern plains is extending ridging
into lower MI. Lake effect clouds and very light lake snows continue
into nw and n central lower MI. The high pressure will gradually
work south through the day, allowing winds to increase and become
slightly gusty out of the W/SW, while ushering in somewhat less cold
air. That will erode lake effect from south to north. PLN may be
able to see a brief period of MVFR cigs/vsbys this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions for most of the period. It`s late this
evening and overnight when system snow and lake effect press into
PLN with MVFR CIGS and IFR/MVFR VSBYS. 1-2" possible. Snowfall rates
generally under an inch per hour. Snow ratios around 17:1.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Nov 18 2018

Winds are starting to increase over the Great Lakes, as an axis of
high pressure is sinking southward, and the pressure gradient t is
tightening ahead of a cold front in Canada. Advisory speeds expected
most all areas today into this evening. Winds subside with the
passing of low pressure later Sunday night through Monday, but
advisory level gusts are once again possible Monday night when this
low pressure departs.


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345-346.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LHZ347-348.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ341.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-342-
344>346.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BA
NEAR TERM...SMD
SHORT TERM...STJ
LONG TERM...STJ
AVIATION...SMD
MARINE...SMD


000
ACUS11 KWNS 160857
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160856
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-161500-

Mesoscale Discussion 1652
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0256 AM CST Fri Nov 16 2018

Areas affected...Portions of the Mid-Atlantic and New England

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 160856Z - 161500Z

SUMMARY...One area of heavy snow with rates in excess of 1 inch per
hour will develop northeastward across northern New England this
morning. Another area of moderate to locally heavy snow, with rates
up to 1 inch per hour, will move across eastern PA into southern New
England.

DISCUSSION...Within large-scale upper troughing encompassing much of
the central and eastern CONUS, a compact shortwave trough will
continue moving quickly northeastward over the Mid-Atlantic and New
England regions this morning. A deepening surface low associated
with this shortwave trough will likewise develop northeastward along
the coast of southern New England. A band of moderate to heavy snow
is occurring over western/northern NY, attendant to strong forcing
for ascent and a mid-level deformation zone immediately ahead of the
shortwave trough. Snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour will
likely continue for at least the next several hours as this band
develops into northern New England.

Across parts of central/eastern PA, northern NJ, southern NY, and
southern New England, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain have
all been observed recently as strong low-level warm air advection
has allowed for at least some melting of hydrometeors. However, a
quick transition back to mainly snow is likely from west to east
this morning as cold mid/upper-level temperatures embedded within
the core of the shortwave trough overspread these areas. Forecast
soundings from the NAM and RAP both suggest that there will be
sufficient wrap-around moisture remaining within the dendritic
growth zone and steepening mid-level lapse rates to support moderate
to locally heavy snow for a couple of hours. Snowfall rates up to 1
inch per hour may occur. This scenario is well supported by recent
high-resolution guidance, including most HREF members. A rapid
decrease in snowfall intensity/coverage will likely be noted from
west to east through the morning, as strong subsidence and mid-level
drying behind the shortwave trough passage suppress precipitation
potential.

..Gleason.. 11/16/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...
BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON 43667018 42917138 42457230 41937334 40907478 40407593
40217652 40257704 41037762 41687752 43387669 44457594
45047489 45087164 45387140 45447091 45837051 46087035
46257028 46417018 46566969 46536828 46286771 45706771
45216802 44626873 43996958 43667018