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FLUS43 KAPX 251519

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1019 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including
Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel-
5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including
Bois Blanc Island-
Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay
National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI-
Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to
Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge-
Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little
Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI-
Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI-
Manistee to Point Betsie MI-
Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI-
St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay-Chippewa-
Mackinac-Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Charlevoix-Leelanau-Antrim-
Otsego-Montmorency-Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-
1019 AM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

This hazardous weather outlook is for northern Lower Michigan...
eastern Upper Michigan...and adjacent nearshore waters of Lake
Michigan...Lake Huron and Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.

Ice jam flooding is occurring along portions of the Rifle and Au
Gres Rivers in Arenac County. See ongoing areal flood warning for
additional details.

Strong gusty winds, at times gusting to 40 to 50 mph, are expected
through early evening across Eastern Upper and Northern Lower
Michigan. See ongoing advisories for further details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.


Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather to the
National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways:




For more information visit


ACUS01 KWNS 251953
SPC AC 251951

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Valid 252000Z - 261200Z


A few storms capable of producing hail, localized wind damage or a
brief/weak tornado are possible across parts of Texas today, and
then across the central Gulf Coast region tonight.

Thunderstorms continue to form atop a surface stable layer over
southeast Texas this afternoon. Favorable effective shear, evidenced
by recent KEWX/KHGX VWP data and near-term forecast soundings, will
maintain a marginal hail threat into this evening. Indeed, MRMS
CAPPI and mid-level rotational products suggest occasional updraft
organization. Additionally, an isolated storm or two may continue to
pose a hail threat across the central Gulf Coast overnight.

In terms of the wind/tornado threat, with the glancing influence of
a mid-level impulse over the southern Plains and Mississippi Valley,
some weak/brief poleward surface theta-e advection is anticipated,
likely returning a maritime air mass to parts of the central Gulf
Coast. In turn, despite the earlier passage of a composite
outflow/cold front, adequate surface destabilization may occur
across coastal areas for a marginal wind/tornado threat overnight,
and only minor adjustments have been made to the ongoing outlook.

..Picca.. 02/25/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018/

...TX today...
Clusters of thunderstorms are affecting parts of central and
southeast TX this morning, ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough and
in region of low-level warm advection. Continued re-development in
this area will likely persist trough the afternoon, with sufficient
elevated CAPE and deep-layer shear to promote rotating cells capable
of hail. The risk of organized severe storms appears marginal.

...Western/Middle Gulf Coast tonight...
Later tonight, the low-level air mass is forecast to slowly recover
along the immediate Gulf Coast from southern LA into the FL
Panhandle. Most 12z model guidance is consistent in the development
of thunderstorms tonight along/north of the retreating warm front
over LA. These storms will track eastward in vicinity of the
boundary and move across parts of MS/AL/FL. While the overall
severe threat appears low, there is some risk of locally
gusty/damaging winds or a brief tornado.


ACUS02 KWNS 251700
SPC AC 251659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


Scattered thunderstorms are expected across portions of the
Southeast and Gulf Coast Monday. A few thunderstorms may develop
near the Bay Area later in the day, as well. Organized severe
weather is not expected.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
With most of the country under the influence of a broad mid-level
trough, relatively stable low/mid-level conditions are anticipated
in many locations. Nonetheless, as a sheared impulse traverses the
Mississippi and Ohio Valleys Monday, another round of convection is
likely to be ongoing to its south. These storms should be focused
near/along a stalled front stretching from southeastern Louisiana to
southern Alabama/Georgia. With the passage of the mid/upper system,
a weak surface wave is forecast to advance towards the Southeast US
coast through the day, with the attendant cold front slowly
accelerating into the northern Gulf. Along/ahead of the front and
weak surface low, scattered convection is likely, and an isolated
storm or two may briefly become strong early in the period, owing to
residual surface-based buoyancy and vigorous westerly mid-level
flow. However, the strongest flow will becoming increasingly
displaced from any substantive buoyancy, likely keeping the threat
of stronger, organized thunderstorms low.

Elsewhere, a notable northerly mid/upper jet maximum will drive
south along the Pacific Northwest coast Monday, favoring the
organization of a closed low that should pass over the Bay Area
during the afternoon and evening. Cold mid-level temperatures and
steepening lapse rates may support a few updrafts deep enough for
lightning production.

..Picca.. 02/25/2018


NWUS53 KAPX 251751

1251 PM EST SUN FEB 25 2018

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....





FXUS63 KAPX 252328

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
628 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

...Strong winds gradually diminish this evening...

High Impact Weather Potential...Strong winds continue thru early

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Occluded low center has pushed just
north of Lake Superior this afternoon...with the associated front
now NE of Lake Huron. All precip has come to an end across our
CWA...with some decrease in cloud cover gradually occurring over the
past couple of hours as high pressure and drier low level air begin
to build into the region. Tight pressure gradient in the wake of the
departing low continues to produce strong gusty W/SW winds across
the Western Great Lakes region...with some of the strongest winds
occurring across our CWA throughout the day. Ongoing CAA has held
temps mainly in the 30s all day.

Strong W/SW winds gusting to 40 to 50 mph will persist thru the
remainder of the afternoon...and will then gradually diminish
throughout the night as the low level pressure gradient loosens in
response to the upstream ridge axis building into Michigan. Local
surface obs are still reporting wind speeds reaching Wind Advisory
criteria across much of our CWA attm. Will certainly keep all Wind
Advisory headlines in tact...with the continued expectation that
wind speeds should fall below criteria by around 00Z this evening.

Otherwise...expect dry wx thru Monday with some partial cloud cover
tonight giving way to mostly sunny skies for the start of the work
week. Low temps tonight will cool into the mid 20s to around 30
degrees. High temps on Monday will range from the mid 30s in Eastern
Upper Michigan to the mid 40s near Saginaw Bay.


.SHORT TERM...(Monday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

...Remaining Mild...

Primary Forecast Concern...Pops Tuesday night.

High pressure pushes off to our southeast Tuesday which really pumps
in the mild air with lots of 50 degree+ readings across northern
lower expected. A short wave moves through the flow Tuesday night.
Although pops will be low at between 20 and 35 percent,
precipitation type is in question. A definite start as liquid with
the mild air lingering from during the day. Model soundings
overnight cool to near freezing from the surface up to about 3,000
feet or so. Therefore could end up with snow showers or even a
little freezing rain. Still too many questions about this possible
marginal "event" to get too excited about just yet. Wednesday looks
like northern Michigan is in transition between low pressure
developing across the Missouri River Valley and cooler air to the
north...leading to partly cloudy and still pretty mild.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 311 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Primary concern remains the storm system we have been looking at for
the Thursday/Friday timeframe. The anticipated southern shift has
continued over the past couple of runs, as both the upper level and
surface lows continue to weaken a bit. Some guidance has shifted far
enough south to take the precip out of Northern Michigan. I don`t
think it will end up completely missing us, but I wouldn`t be
surprised to see some more subtle adjustments over the next couple
of runs, and perhaps areas in eastern upper and across the tip of the
mitt not seeing much precip. Still expect any daytime precip to fall
as rain, with a transition to snow as overnight temperatures drop.
We could see another round of gusty winds as this system passes.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 616 PM EST Sun Feb 25 2018

Low pressure is quickly departing to the NE, while high pressure
is settling into the Ohio river valley over the TAF period. This
leaves nrn Michigan in a westerly flow regime tonight. The gusty
winds will gradually wind down into Monday morning as the low
pressure drives further away from the region. While drier air has
cleared all airports out, except PLN, the low level air mass will
get just cold enough for redevelopment of lake clouds coming into
NW lower. There could possibly be some MVFR at TVC/PLN for a time
tonight. Skies will start clearing late tonight through Monday,
with only some increased higher level cloud expected late Monday
night. This will be out ahead of the next low pressure and cold
front pushing into the western Great Lakes. A tightened pressure
gradient ahead of this system is also expected to bring more LLWS.


MI...WIND ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ008-015>036-041-




ACUS11 KWNS 250600
SPC MCD 250600

Mesoscale Discussion 0098
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

Areas affected...Texas coastal plain

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 250600Z - 250730Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Some thunderstorm activity developing across the region
could become fairly strong through the 2-4 AM CST time frame.
Overall, though, the severe weather potential seems limited, and a
watch is not currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorm development is underway near and
ahead of the weak surface front advancing into the Texas coastal
plain. This is being aided by forcing for ascent associated with
another low-amplitude short wave impulse crossing the lower Rio
Grande Valley, within the subtropical westerlies. Although
southerly low-level flow across the region is generally modest, with
speeds up to 30 kt generally confined to upper Texas coastal areas,
deep layer shear is strong. With layers of modestly steep lower/mid
tropospheric lapse rates contributing to CAPE up to around 1000 J/kg
(for moist boundary layer parcels with dew points in the upper 60s
to near 70), some of these storms could be accompanied by some risk
for severe hail into the 07-09Z time frame. Eventually, upscale
convective growth is possible along and just ahead of the front. As
this occurs, the risk for hail probably will decrease, but a few
locally strong wind gusts may accompany developing outflow.

..Kerr/Grams.. 02/25/2018

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON 29389792 29819689 30329548 30699453 30749369 29739370
29199540 28219685 28179780 29389792