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Nor'easter Bringing Dangerous Coastal Conditions to the Mid-Atlantic; Pacific Storm to Impact the Southwest U.S.

A Nor'easter well off the East Coast will slowly track north this week and may gain some subtropical characteristics. Strong onshore winds will bring flooding, dangerous marine conditions, and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A Pacific storm will bring gusty winds, severe thunderstorms, and mountain snow to portions of California and the Southwest U.S. through Thursday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261021_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 10/21 00Z 0.15 0217  49   7   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 01Z 0.17 0218  45   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 02Z 0.19 0219  42   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 03Z 0.22 0318  40   8   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 04Z 0.24 0417  40   7   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 05Z 0.25 0515  41   7   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 06Z 0.25 0613  44   6   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 07Z 0.23 0711  46   6   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 08Z 0.20 0709  46   5   5 0.00
Wed 10/21 09Z 0.15 0708  44   4   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 10Z 0.12 0507  40   3   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 11Z 0.11 0408  36   3   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 12Z 0.12 0408  34   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 13Z 0.12 0508  35   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 14Z 0.12 0507  36   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 15Z 0.11 0506  37   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 16Z 0.09 0406  37   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 17Z 0.09 0406  38   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 18Z 0.10 0505  40   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 19Z 0.08 0504  42   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 20Z 0.06 0503  42   3   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 21Z 0.05 0403  40   3   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 22Z 0.05 0403  38   3   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 23Z 0.05 0303  37   3   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 00Z 0.04 0203  34   4   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 01Z 0.03 0004  32   4   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 02Z 0.04 0006  29   6   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 03Z 0.03 0008  27  10   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 04Z 0.03 3510  25  12   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 05Z 0.04 0011  21  13   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 06Z 0.06 0012  19  14   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 07Z 0.05 0014  19  15   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 08Z 0.05 0016  18  16   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 09Z 0.05 0018  19  18   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 10Z 0.04 0020  24  18   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 11Z 0.04 0020  34  18   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 12Z 0.05 0020  43  24   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 13Z 0.05 0021  56  33   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 14Z 0.04 0021  71  37   5 0.00
Thu 10/22 15Z 0.02 3521  80  44   4 0.00
Thu 10/22 16Z 0.02 3522  86  40   4 0.00
Thu 10/22 17Z 0.04 3522  90  27   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 18Z 0.04 3524  87  17   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 19Z 0.05 0024  79  20   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 20Z 0.04 0025  69  23   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 21Z 0.03 0027  59  23   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 22Z 0.04 0030  53  17   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 23Z 0.08 0031  49  22   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 00Z 0.13 0032  49  27   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 01Z 0.21 0133  50  13   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 02Z 0.28 0133  51   4   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 03Z 0.30 0133  50   2  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 04Z 0.29 0131  52   2  -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 05Z 0.25 0129  54   4  -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 06Z 0.23 0128  56   3  -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 07Z 0.22 0129  53   3  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 08Z 0.20 0228  47   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 09Z 0.22 0228  42   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 10Z 0.20 0227  42   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 11Z 0.19 0227  45   3   0 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1