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Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.; Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.

Severe weather and flooding threats will continue for portions of the central U.S. through Thursday, focused from the central High Plains to the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Hot and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns for the Intermountain West, and dry thunderstorms may spark additional wildfires. Dangerous heat will build across the southern U.S. Friday into the weekend. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260624_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 06/24 18Z 4.01 3012  86  66   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 19Z 4.82 2915  84  61   9 0.01
Wed 06/24 20Z 4.62 2915  83  55  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 21Z 4.38 2916  80  49  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 22Z 4.28 2918  77  34  10 0.00
Wed 06/24 23Z 3.44 2920  76  33  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 00Z 2.91 2922  77  30  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 01Z 2.54 2923  78  32   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 02Z 1.60 2923  78  31   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 03Z 1.05 3021  79  30   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 04Z 0.78 3021  80  32   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 05Z 0.71 3020  78  30   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 06Z 0.64 3017  76  26   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 07Z 0.63 3017  75  24   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 08Z 0.56 3014  74  19   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 09Z 0.53 3013  73  21   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 10Z 0.55 2913  73  19   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 11Z 0.54 2913  73  19   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 12Z 0.50 2912  73  21   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 13Z 0.50 2909  73  20   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 14Z 1.04 2807  73  20   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 15Z 2.04 2806  72  19   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 16Z 2.43 2705  71  22  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 17Z 2.38 2604  70  26  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 18Z 2.40 2404  69  33  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 19Z 1.68 2204  69  33  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 20Z 1.70 2105  71  34  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 21Z 0.90 2006  73  34  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 22Z 0.63 2007  74  38  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 23Z 0.23 2007  73  49  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 00Z 0.12 1909  68  69  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 01Z 0.11 1811  67  74  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 02Z 0.07 1813  68  72  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 03Z 0.09 1815  71  79  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 04Z 0.12 1817  73  88  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 05Z 0.14 1819  76  88  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 06Z 0.28 1922  81  93  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 07Z 0.21 1923  87  95  11 0.06
Fri 06/26 08Z 0.20 1924  88  92  11 0.10
Fri 06/26 09Z 0.19 1924  90  82  11 0.07
Fri 06/26 10Z 0.13 1824  90  84  11 0.03
Fri 06/26 11Z 0.19 1920  92  73  11 0.03
Fri 06/26 12Z 0.29 2020  95  68  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 13Z 0.31 2117  93  63  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 14Z 0.31 2116  95  67  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 15Z 0.31 2114  96  66  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 16Z 0.33 2113  96  58  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 17Z 0.34 2112  95  47  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 18Z 0.43 2112  92  49  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 19Z 0.77 2111  88  62  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 20Z 1.03 2212  89  72  11 0.03
Fri 06/26 21Z 0.67 2217  91  67  12 0.12
Fri 06/26 22Z 0.70 2418  94  74  12 0.08
Fri 06/26 23Z 0.74 2619  92  68  11 0.08
Sat 06/27 00Z 0.80 2720  96  48  10 0.04
Sat 06/27 01Z 0.70 2820  96  41  10 0.02
Sat 06/27 02Z 0.57 2919  94  39  10 0.01
Sat 06/27 03Z 0.54 2918  96  40   9 0.01
Sat 06/27 04Z 0.51 2917  96  41   9 0.01
Sat 06/27 05Z 0.52 2817  95  37  10 0.02

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.81 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1