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Extreme Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.; Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the Great Basin and Southwest today, and exceptionally dry and windy conditions will promote rapid wildfire spread through the weekend. Scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260627_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 06/27 06Z 0.23 3009  84  64  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 07Z 0.22 3109  84  64  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 08Z 0.20 3109  84  65  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 09Z 0.17 3108  84  67  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 10Z 0.15 3106  84  70  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 11Z 0.15 3006  85  74  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 12Z 0.13 3005  86  76  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 13Z 0.12 3005  86  75  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 14Z 0.10 3104  85  70  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 15Z 0.09 3003  86  67  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 16Z 0.08 3002  87  65  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 17Z 0.08 3102  87  60  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 18Z 0.08 3102  86  57  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 19Z 0.08 3202  85  51  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 20Z 0.12 3203  85  49  12 0.02
Sat 06/27 21Z 0.10 3303  84  47  12 0.03
Sat 06/27 22Z 0.07 3403  84  47  12 0.01
Sat 06/27 23Z 0.06 3503  83  52  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 00Z 0.06 0002  82  49  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 01Z 0.08 0102  81  48  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 02Z 0.10 0102  79  48  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 03Z 0.08 0002  79  51  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 04Z 0.06 0002  80  53  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 05Z 0.07 0003  79  54  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 06Z 0.06 3503  78  55  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 07Z 0.06 3404  76  53  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 08Z 0.07 3405  73  45  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 09Z 0.05 3406  71  35  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 10Z 0.04 3507  70  27  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 11Z 0.02 3507  69  25  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 12Z 0.03 0007  70  24  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 13Z 0.05 0107  71  24  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 14Z 0.08 0206  71  25  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 15Z 0.10 0305  73  24  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 16Z 0.11 0204  75  23  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 17Z 0.08 0104  77  21  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 18Z 0.08 0004  79  19  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 19Z 0.09 3504  80  18  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 20Z 0.11 3404  80  15  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 21Z 0.11 3404  80  10  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 22Z 0.09 3405  79   9  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 23Z 0.07 3406  77   9  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 00Z 0.05 0008  76  10  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 01Z 0.07 0009  77  12  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 02Z 0.12 0109  75  11  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 03Z 0.13 0208  74  11  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 04Z 0.17 0308  72  13  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 05Z 0.15 0306  71  15  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 06Z 0.06 0204  69  17  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 07Z 0.02 0004  67  18  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 08Z 0.04 3405  67  20  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 09Z 0.05 3407  66  22  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 10Z 0.03 3508  64  23  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 11Z 0.04 0008  63  21  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 12Z 0.06 0108  63  20  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 13Z 0.08 0107  63  19  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 14Z 0.06 0105  66  21  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 15Z 0.08 0104  71  21  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 16Z 0.08 0002  73  21  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 17Z 0.13 0300  72  21  12 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.14 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1