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Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.; Dangerous Heat in the Southern and Western U.S.

Severe weather and flooding threats will continue for portions of the central U.S. over the next couple of days, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected. Dangerous heat will persist across the southern and western U.S. through mid-week. Hot and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns for the Intermountain West, where dry thunderstorms may spark additional wildfires. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260624_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 06/24 06Z 0.33 3315  80  57   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 07Z 0.35 3215  81  45   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 08Z 0.41 3217  85  41   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 09Z 0.43 3219  86  41   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 10Z 0.41 3218  85  38   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 11Z 0.43 3119  86  38   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 12Z 0.45 3119  88  37   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 13Z 0.51 3120  90  41   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 14Z 0.59 3119  90  47   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 15Z 0.78 3018  90  48   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 16Z 1.69 2918  92  47   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 17Z 1.61 2918  91  50   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 18Z 3.04 2916  88  49   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 19Z 6.54 2917  85  48   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 20Z 7.23 2917  82  50   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 21Z 6.87 2920  79  52   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 22Z 4.17 2920  77  49   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 23Z 3.09 2921  75  48   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 00Z 2.57 2921  75  45   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 01Z 1.89 2922  79  44   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 02Z 1.27 2921  81  40   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 03Z 1.09 2921  80  37   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 04Z 0.93 3022  78  35   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 05Z 0.80 3020  75  30   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 06Z 0.69 3019  74  27   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 07Z 0.59 3116  73  17   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 08Z 0.55 3014  72  11   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 09Z 0.50 3012  72  12   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 10Z 0.46 2910  71  19   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 11Z 0.40 2808  71  19   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 12Z 0.36 2707  72  20   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 13Z 0.35 2606  73  27   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 14Z 0.52 2506  75  27   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 15Z 1.25 2406  76  23   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 16Z 1.75 2405  75  27   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 17Z 1.59 2306  74  35  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 18Z 1.84 2208  73  46  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 19Z 1.66 2209  71  52  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 20Z 0.69 2210  68  57  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 21Z 0.50 2210  64  55  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 22Z 0.28 2109  59  63  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 23Z 0.27 2009  57  79  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 00Z 0.22 1910  62  92  10 0.00
Fri 06/26 01Z 0.12 1712  68  95  10 0.00
Fri 06/26 02Z 0.11 1715  75  99  10 0.01
Fri 06/26 03Z 0.13 1618  86  98  10 0.04
Fri 06/26 04Z 0.15 1722  91  96  10 0.14
Fri 06/26 05Z 0.26 1924  95  92  11 0.13
Fri 06/26 06Z 0.30 1926  97  94  11 0.12
Fri 06/26 07Z 0.52 2130  97  89  11 0.18
Fri 06/26 08Z 0.57 2227  93  85  11 0.06
Fri 06/26 09Z 0.64 2326  95  78  11 0.05
Fri 06/26 10Z 0.58 2323  96  51  11 0.02
Fri 06/26 11Z 0.56 2421  93  39  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 12Z 0.55 2420  92  35  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 13Z 0.53 2518  91  36  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 14Z 0.53 2517  91  46  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 15Z 0.52 2415  90  56  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 16Z 0.55 2414  88  64  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 17Z 0.65 2314  89  57  11 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.79 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1