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Excessive Rainfall and Tropical Storm in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

Excessive rainfall may produce considerable, potentially life-threatening, flooding across the lower Mississippi River Valley and central Great Lakes region through tonight. Tropical Storm Arthur will move northeastward along the Texas coast today and then move inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of Illinois and Indiana. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260617_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 06/17 12Z 0.21 2010  72  77   9 0.00
Wed 06/17 13Z 0.26 2010  68  69   9 0.00
Wed 06/17 14Z 1.00 2010  65  60   9 0.00
Wed 06/17 15Z 2.15 2008  62  54  10 0.00
Wed 06/17 16Z 2.09 2008  58  42  10 0.01
Wed 06/17 17Z 0.88 1907  57  37  10 0.01
Wed 06/17 18Z 0.77 1808  56  40  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 19Z 0.92 1809  54  53  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 20Z 0.68 1808  55  69  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 21Z 0.40 1708  58  74  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 22Z 0.31 1710  61  77  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 23Z 0.12 1714  65  84  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 00Z 0.12 1816  68  72  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 01Z 0.13 1818  69  46  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 02Z 0.32 1922  73  48  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 03Z 0.38 1924  81  61  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 04Z 0.25 1924  84  63  11 0.01
Thu 06/18 05Z 0.27 1924  86  71  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 06Z 0.29 2023  87  52  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 07Z 0.29 2022  88  69  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 08Z 0.31 2021  89  90  11 0.03
Thu 06/18 09Z 0.11 1820  88  91  11 0.02
Thu 06/18 10Z 0.10 1725  85  96  11 0.01
Thu 06/18 11Z 0.12 1732  82  96  12 0.01
Thu 06/18 12Z 0.07 1737  87  91  13 0.01
Thu 06/18 13Z 0.18 1842  92  93  12 0.02
Thu 06/18 14Z 0.08 1841  86  90  13 0.05
Thu 06/18 15Z 0.12 1840  96  94  13 0.17
Thu 06/18 16Z 0.14 1836  98  80  13 0.18
Thu 06/18 17Z 0.26 1934  97  71  13 0.06
Thu 06/18 18Z 0.36 1932  96  55  13 0.02
Thu 06/18 19Z 0.56 2030  94  59  14 0.01
Thu 06/18 20Z 1.89 2126  91  65  13 0.01
Thu 06/18 21Z 2.16 2325  90  52  13 0.07
Thu 06/18 22Z 1.33 2424  95  57  13 0.03
Thu 06/18 23Z 1.61 2528  88  63  12 0.06
Fri 06/19 00Z 1.47 2527  84  73  11 0.02
Fri 06/19 01Z 1.44 2528  84  60  10 0.01
Fri 06/19 02Z 1.31 2529  86  63   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 03Z 1.12 2529  89  63   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 04Z 1.03 2629  88  63   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 05Z 1.11 2630  91  75   8 0.00
Fri 06/19 06Z 1.09 2630  93  68   8 0.01
Fri 06/19 07Z 1.06 2630  94  66   8 0.01
Fri 06/19 08Z 0.91 2629  94  67   8 0.01
Fri 06/19 09Z 0.89 2631  94  70   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 10Z 0.93 2633  94  62   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 11Z 0.92 2733  93  50   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 12Z 0.97 2733  92  45   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 13Z 1.04 2732  92  41   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 14Z 1.20 2731  92  42   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 15Z 1.50 2729  90  46   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 16Z 2.55 2727  89  52   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 17Z 7.29 2625  87  53   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 18Z 10.15 2623  87  52   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 19Z 11.81 2623  85  47  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 20Z 12.53 2624  83  40  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 21Z 13.23 2625  79  38  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 22Z 11.02 2627  70  35  10 0.03
Fri 06/19 23Z 6.11 2629  75  41  10 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.96 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1