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Heat Builds in the West; Extremely Critical Fire Weather in the Northwest

A heat wave over the Southwest will intensify this week, peaking and expanding into the Intermountain West and northern High Plains this weekend. Critical to extremely critical fire weather conditions are forecast from the Northwest and the northern Great Basin this weekend. Particularly Dangerous Situation Red Flag Warnings have been issued. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260802_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 08/02 00Z 0.20 2106  76  28  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 01Z 0.18 2007  74  27  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 02Z 0.19 1909  74  32  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 03Z 0.24 2012  74  42  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 04Z 0.38 2014  75  53  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 05Z 0.52 2118  82  64  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 06Z 0.48 2120  87  68  15 0.01
Sun 08/02 07Z 0.41 2122  87  67  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 08Z 0.39 2122  85  69  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 09Z 0.45 2123  86  82  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 10Z 0.51 2222  88  80  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 11Z 0.51 2221  88  71  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 12Z 0.46 2219  87  68  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 13Z 0.41 2216  88  53  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 14Z 0.44 2116  92  50  14 0.00
Sun 08/02 15Z 0.43 2115  95  72  14 0.01
Sun 08/02 16Z 0.34 2115  93  83  14 0.03
Sun 08/02 17Z 0.38 2015  92  79  14 0.01
Sun 08/02 18Z 0.38 2017  92  70  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 19Z 0.45 2017  90  59  15 0.02
Sun 08/02 20Z 0.50 2017  88  56  15 0.03
Sun 08/02 21Z 0.51 2017  87  34  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 22Z 0.29 1917  81  33  15 0.00
Sun 08/02 23Z 0.24 1919  81  39  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 00Z 0.22 1920  78  60  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 01Z 0.20 1920  79  72  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 02Z 0.22 1921  78  83  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 03Z 0.18 1921  71  84  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 04Z 0.17 1921  65  90  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 05Z 0.18 1922  67  86  16 0.00
Mon 08/03 06Z 0.24 1923  76  74  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 07Z 0.21 1922  85  64  15 0.01
Mon 08/03 08Z 0.19 1922  86  89  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 09Z 0.17 1921  83  94  15 0.02
Mon 08/03 10Z 0.09 1821  80  90  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 11Z 0.08 1823  82  89  17 0.00
Mon 08/03 12Z 0.09 1825  87  84  17 0.01
Mon 08/03 13Z 0.15 1926  93  82  17 0.01
Mon 08/03 14Z 0.19 1927  96  80  17 0.01
Mon 08/03 15Z 0.26 1925  98  84  16 0.04
Mon 08/03 16Z 0.31 2023  98  79  17 0.15
Mon 08/03 17Z 0.36 2022  98  81  17 0.07
Mon 08/03 18Z 0.34 2020  96  85  17 0.13
Mon 08/03 19Z 0.41 1921  97  77  17 0.04
Mon 08/03 20Z 0.36 1921  96  63  17 0.05
Mon 08/03 21Z 0.61 2221  93  74  17 0.43
Mon 08/03 22Z 0.73 2523  94  37  15 0.37
Mon 08/03 23Z 0.84 2524  94  58  14 0.02
Tue 08/04 00Z 0.74 2623  96  68  13 0.04
Tue 08/04 01Z 0.60 2720  98  69  13 0.03
Tue 08/04 02Z 0.50 2919  98  67  13 0.05
Tue 08/04 03Z 0.50 3123  98  83  12 0.05
Tue 08/04 04Z 0.40 3330  98  85  11 0.07
Tue 08/04 05Z 0.30 3332  94  69  12 0.03
Tue 08/04 06Z 0.26 3431  87  33  12 0.01
Tue 08/04 07Z 0.23 3429  82   8  12 0.01
Tue 08/04 08Z 0.23 3426  80   2  12 0.01
Tue 08/04 09Z 0.28 3324  82   2  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 10Z 0.24 3322  73   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 11Z 0.21 3321  60   2  12 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 1.79 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1