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Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.; Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.

Severe weather and flooding threats continue for portions of the central U.S., with impactful flash flooding possible from southern Kansas to southwestern Missouri. Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Great Basin and Southwest on Friday, with dry and windy conditions through the weekend. Dangerous heat will increase across the southern and central U.S. this weekend. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260625_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 06/25 18Z 2.73 2306  79  50  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 19Z 2.50 2307  80  51  11 0.02
Thu 06/25 20Z 2.60 2309  79  56  11 0.04
Thu 06/25 21Z 1.64 2209  76  59  11 0.03
Thu 06/25 22Z 0.51 2209  74  62  11 0.03
Thu 06/25 23Z 0.31 2109  70  68  11 0.02
Fri 06/26 00Z 0.31 2109  68  80  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 01Z 0.28 2009  69  88  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 02Z 0.16 1909  72  94  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 03Z 0.10 1710  80  97  10 0.01
Fri 06/26 04Z 0.11 1713  85  97  10 0.03
Fri 06/26 05Z 0.14 1715  90  96  10 0.05
Fri 06/26 06Z 0.18 1717  95  95  10 0.09
Fri 06/26 07Z 0.12 1719  95  90  10 0.11
Fri 06/26 08Z 0.06 1719  96  89  10 0.06
Fri 06/26 09Z 0.09 1819  97  88  10 0.03
Fri 06/26 10Z 0.12 1920  98  83  10 0.03
Fri 06/26 11Z 0.22 2019  99  82  10 0.03
Fri 06/26 12Z 0.30 2116  97  78  10 0.03
Fri 06/26 13Z 0.35 2215  94  75  10 0.02
Fri 06/26 14Z 0.37 2214  97  69  10 0.01
Fri 06/26 15Z 0.35 2212  98  66  10 0.01
Fri 06/26 16Z 0.38 2410  98  64  10 0.01
Fri 06/26 17Z 0.44 2509  97  62  10 0.01
Fri 06/26 18Z 0.45 2608  96  58  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 19Z 0.45 2607  94  63  11 0.02
Fri 06/26 20Z 0.42 2607  93  66  11 0.12
Fri 06/26 21Z 0.43 2809  91  68  11 0.11
Fri 06/26 22Z 0.46 2812  92  68  11 0.11
Fri 06/26 23Z 0.41 2912  90  61  11 0.04
Sat 06/27 00Z 0.43 2912  91  53  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 01Z 0.41 2913  93  52  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 02Z 0.30 3010  92  47  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 03Z 0.30 2910  92  46  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 04Z 0.27 2909  93  48  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 05Z 0.26 3009  94  49  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 06Z 0.23 2908  92  51  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 07Z 0.21 3008  91  53  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 08Z 0.18 3007  92  54  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 09Z 0.16 3106  94  53  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 10Z 0.13 3105  93  55  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 11Z 0.07 3304  92  54  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 12Z 0.03 3503  91  53  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 13Z 0.05 3402  91  55  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 14Z 0.03 3301  91  57  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 15Z 0.04 3001  92  56  10 0.01
Sat 06/27 16Z 0.04 2900  93  56  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 17Z 0.06 2700  93  59  11 0.03
Sat 06/27 18Z 0.07 3001  93  58  11 0.04
Sat 06/27 19Z 0.06 3201  92  55  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 20Z 0.05 3502  91  52  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 21Z 0.05 3502  91  51  11 0.03
Sat 06/27 22Z 0.05 3502  91  52  11 0.03
Sat 06/27 23Z 0.06 0002  91  51  12 0.02
Sun 06/28 00Z 0.08 0303  91  50  12 0.02
Sun 06/28 01Z 0.07 0203  91  51  11 0.01
Sun 06/28 02Z 0.09 0303  91  52  11 0.01
Sun 06/28 03Z 0.10 0304  91  55  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 04Z 0.07 0204  91  56  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 05Z 0.06 0105  91  59  11 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 1.38 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1