National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

River Flooding Continues in East Florida; Rain and Thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast Thursday; Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico

Significant river flooding is forecast along the St. John’s and the Peace rivers through the end of the week as flood waters will be slow to recede. Periods of rainfall and thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday and Friday. In Puerto Rico, increased moisture in the Atlantic will produce heavy rainfall for the island. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261103_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 11/03 06Z 0.46 2814  59  86   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 07Z 0.45 2814  58  86   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 08Z 0.41 2812  56  87   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 09Z 0.34 2710  56  83  10 0.00
Tue 11/03 10Z 0.33 2610  58  90   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 11Z 0.36 2610  61  92   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 12Z 0.36 2510  63  94   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 13Z 0.37 2411  63  91   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 14Z 0.36 2311  61  94   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 15Z 0.35 2212  61  94   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 16Z 0.40 2215  63  90   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 17Z 0.46 2217  66  90   8 0.00
Tue 11/03 18Z 0.48 2217  69  96   8 0.00
Tue 11/03 19Z 0.48 2218  75  98   8 0.00
Tue 11/03 20Z 0.51 2221  81  96   8 0.01
Tue 11/03 21Z 0.62 2224  85  93   8 0.00
Tue 11/03 22Z 0.62 2325  91  87   9 0.01
Tue 11/03 23Z 0.65 2425  92  80   9 0.02
Wed 11/04 00Z 0.65 2525  94  76  10 0.01
Wed 11/04 01Z 0.68 2625  93  64  10 0.01
Wed 11/04 02Z 0.69 2624  91  60  10 0.01
Wed 11/04 03Z 0.73 2725  89  57  10 0.01
Wed 11/04 04Z 0.75 2625  87  55  10 0.01
Wed 11/04 05Z 0.78 2625  83  51  10 0.00
Wed 11/04 06Z 0.82 2526  83  48  10 0.00
Wed 11/04 07Z 0.78 2526  79  44  10 0.00
Wed 11/04 08Z 0.76 2526  72  43  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 09Z 0.81 2527  70  62  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 10Z 0.81 2627  70  72  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 11Z 0.82 2627  70  66  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 12Z 0.83 2528  70  67  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 13Z 0.79 2527  69  74  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 14Z 0.72 2626  66  74  12 0.00
Wed 11/04 15Z 0.64 2624  64  68  12 0.00
Wed 11/04 16Z 0.57 2521  61  65  12 0.00
Wed 11/04 17Z 0.51 2519  58  64  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 18Z 0.48 2518  55  54  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 19Z 0.44 2417  54  44  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 20Z 0.43 2416  57  44  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 21Z 0.44 2417  59  46  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 22Z 0.45 2418  61  47  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 23Z 0.46 2418  63  42  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 00Z 0.45 2419  63  44  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 01Z 0.41 2418  61  46  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 02Z 0.39 2418  57  51  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 03Z 0.38 2319  52  60  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 04Z 0.40 2320  48  64  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 05Z 0.42 2322  41  65  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 06Z 0.43 2224  37  50  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 07Z 0.48 2227  37  41  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 08Z 0.50 2328  39  36  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 09Z 0.48 2228  41  37  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 10Z 0.46 2228  43  40  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 11Z 0.47 2230  44  42  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 12Z 0.52 2232  48  55  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 13Z 0.56 2233  53  65  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 14Z 0.52 2232  65  68  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 15Z 0.49 2230  72  76  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 16Z 0.50 2229  84  90  12 0.00
Thu 11/05 17Z 0.55 2229  96  92  11 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.10 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1