National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold From 7 PM This Evening to 11 AM Friday

An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the Adirondacks with wind chills as low as 30 to 40 below zero expected. The Cold Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the Champlain Valley as well as the rest of northern New York and Vermont. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260130_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 01/30 06Z 0.75 2927  81  45 -24 0.00
Fri 01/30 07Z 0.76 2931  82  46 -24 0.00
Fri 01/30 08Z 0.66 3031  80  50 -24 0.00
Fri 01/30 09Z 0.58 3031  80  55 -23 0.00
Fri 01/30 10Z 0.52 3030  82  60 -23 0.00
Fri 01/30 11Z 0.45 3029  82  67 -22 0.00
Fri 01/30 12Z 0.43 3029  81  72 -22 0.00
Fri 01/30 13Z 0.40 3029  81  76 -21 0.00
Fri 01/30 14Z 0.36 3027  82  77 -21 0.00
Fri 01/30 15Z 0.33 3025  83  76 -20 0.00
Fri 01/30 17Z 0.30 3021  83  72 -18 0.00
Fri 01/30 18Z 0.31 3021  83  69 -18 0.00
Fri 01/30 19Z 0.35 3022  84  67 -18 0.00
Fri 01/30 20Z 0.36 3022  84  66 -18 0.00
Fri 01/30 21Z 0.36 3022  84  64 -17 0.00
Fri 01/30 22Z 0.34 3022  85  63 -17 0.00
Fri 01/30 23Z 0.31 3022  85  64 -16 0.00
Sat 01/31 00Z 0.28 3123  86  63 -16 0.00
Sat 01/31 01Z 0.25 3223  87  62 -16 0.00
Sat 01/31 02Z 0.22 3222  86  59 -16 0.00
Sat 01/31 03Z 0.20 3220  86  55 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 04Z 0.19 3219  85  51 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 05Z 0.18 3218  84  47 -14 0.00
Sat 01/31 06Z 0.18 3117  83  45 -14 0.00
Sat 01/31 07Z 0.18 3117  83  44 -14 0.00
Sat 01/31 09Z 0.19 3117  84  44 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 10Z 0.19 3117  84  43 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 12Z 0.17 3116  84  42 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 13Z 0.16 3115  84  41 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 14Z 0.15 3114  84  40 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 15Z 0.15 3113  84  39 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 16Z 0.15 3113  84  38 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 17Z 0.15 3112  84  38 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 18Z 0.14 3212  84  38 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 19Z 0.13 3212  83  36 -14 0.00
Sat 01/31 20Z 0.12 3312  84  36 -14 0.00
Sat 01/31 21Z 0.10 3311  84  38 -14 0.00
Sat 01/31 22Z 0.10 3313  83  38 -14 0.00
Sat 01/31 23Z 0.09 3315  83  38 -14 0.00
Sun 02/01 00Z 0.04 3514  83  37 -13 0.00
Sun 02/01 01Z 0.03 3512  84  39 -14 0.00
Sun 02/01 02Z 0.03 3511  82  38 -13 0.00
Sun 02/01 03Z 0.03 0011  77  36 -12 0.00
Sun 02/01 04Z 0.03 0011  75  35 -12 0.00
Sun 02/01 05Z 0.05 0112  73  31 -11 0.00
Sun 02/01 06Z 0.05 0114  69  29 -10 0.00
Sun 02/01 07Z 0.06 0114  66  28 -10 0.00
Sun 02/01 08Z 0.10 0214  64  29 -11 0.00
Sun 02/01 09Z 0.10 0215  61  29 -10 0.00
Sun 02/01 10Z 0.07 0116  58  27 -10 0.00
Sun 02/01 11Z 0.08 0117  56  23  -9 0.00
Sun 02/01 12Z 0.11 0219  58  22 -10 0.00
Sun 02/01 13Z 0.13 0219  58  21 -10 0.00
Sun 02/01 14Z 0.12 0218  56  18  -9 0.00
Sun 02/01 15Z 0.11 0218  53  16  -9 0.00
Sun 02/01 16Z 0.12 0219  51  15  -8 0.00
Sun 02/01 17Z 0.10 0219  52  13  -8 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1