National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Autumn Temperatures for Eastern Third of the Country; Developing Offshore Coastal Storm

Cooler and less humid conditions for most of the eastern third of the nation as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Otherwise, rather tranquil weather for most of the nation for the end of the weekend into the start of this week. We continue to monitor a developing coastal storm offshore of the Carolinas; Coastal flooding and beach erosion possible along portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261018_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 10/18 06Z 0.44 2914  73  60  -4 0.00
Sun 10/18 07Z 0.59 2916  72  61  -4 0.00
Sun 10/18 08Z 0.64 2817  74  64  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 09Z 0.59 2918  70  72  -2 0.00
Sun 10/18 10Z 0.52 2918  79  76  -2 0.00
Sun 10/18 11Z 0.51 3018  87  75  -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 12Z 0.49 2917  84  70  -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 13Z 0.48 2916  84  61   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 14Z 0.49 2916  85  50   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 15Z 0.47 2814  84  44   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 16Z 0.44 2713  80  42   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 17Z 0.43 2613  70  40   1 0.00
Sun 10/18 18Z 0.40 2513  57  39   2 0.00
Sun 10/18 19Z 0.35 2512  46  35   3 0.00
Sun 10/18 20Z 0.33 2512  42  31   4 0.00
Sun 10/18 21Z 0.33 2513  39  21   5 0.00
Sun 10/18 22Z 0.33 2614  38  13   6 0.00
Sun 10/18 23Z 0.32 2614  36  11   7 0.00
Mon 10/19 00Z 0.31 2614  32  11   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 01Z 0.30 2614  26  11   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 02Z 0.29 2613  20  13   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 03Z 0.29 2613  17  14   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 04Z 0.29 2613  17  16   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 05Z 0.28 2612  18  17   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 06Z 0.28 2512  19  17   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 07Z 0.29 2512  19  18   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 08Z 0.30 2513  18  18   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 09Z 0.31 2613  18  17  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 10Z 0.31 2613  17  17  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 11Z 0.31 2613  17  17  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 12Z 0.31 2713  16  17  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 13Z 0.29 2712  15  17  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 14Z 0.28 2612  15  18  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 15Z 0.27 2611  15  19  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 16Z 0.25 2611  15  19  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 17Z 0.24 2510  14  19  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 18Z 0.25 2610  14  19  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 19Z 0.27 2710  13  19  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 20Z 0.28 2811  14  19  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 21Z 0.29 2911  15  20  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 22Z 0.29 2912  18  20  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 23Z 0.26 3013  21  19  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 00Z 0.21 3113  26  17  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 01Z 0.18 3213  30  15  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 02Z 0.13 3313  35  14  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 03Z 0.10 3312  41  12  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 04Z 0.08 3413  44  11   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 05Z 0.05 3515  42  13   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 06Z 0.02 0017  41  17   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 07Z 0.05 0018  38  17   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 08Z 0.10 0119  35  15   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 09Z 0.11 0119  30  15   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 10Z 0.11 0120  22  13   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 11Z 0.12 0121  19  10   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 12Z 0.13 0121  19   5   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 13Z 0.13 0121  21   2   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 14Z 0.13 0120  24   2   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 15Z 0.14 0219  29   2   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 16Z 0.13 0217  35   3   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 17Z 0.12 0215  40   3   6 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1