National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

A wintry mix is expected late Thursday into Friday Morning for southern Vermont and portions of northern New York.

A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will spread northward late Thursday through Friday Morning, mainly in southern Vermont and portions of northern New York. Precipitation will likely start as snow for most before transiting to a wintry mix Thursday night. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch are expected. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260304_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 03/04 12Z 0.37 2918  69  17  -1 0.00
Wed 03/04 13Z 0.46 2922  65  12  -1 0.00
Wed 03/04 16Z 0.42 3020  54   8   0 0.00
Wed 03/04 17Z 0.41 2917  61   9   0 0.00
Wed 03/04 18Z 0.43 2916  65  11  -1 0.00
Wed 03/04 19Z 0.48 2816  67  14  -1 0.00
Wed 03/04 20Z 0.54 2718  64  17  -1 0.00
Wed 03/04 21Z 0.55 2718  62  19   0 0.00
Wed 03/04 22Z 0.54 2719  58  24   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 00Z 0.57 2720  59  31   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 01Z 0.55 2720  58  30   1 0.00
Thu 03/05 02Z 0.52 2719  57  28   1 0.00
Thu 03/05 03Z 0.50 2719  57  26   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 04Z 0.48 2718  56  24   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 05Z 0.45 2817  56  21   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 06Z 0.42 2816  57  20   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 07Z 0.36 2815  59  19   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 08Z 0.33 2914  63  20   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 09Z 0.28 2913  66  20   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 10Z 0.22 2910  68  21   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 11Z 0.16 2907  69  22   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 12Z 0.11 2805  71  23   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 14Z 0.07 2001  72  28   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 15Z 0.07 1602  74  29   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 16Z 0.06 1804  77  33   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 17Z 0.05 1704  77  34   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 18Z 0.05 1605  78  30   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 19Z 0.07 1607  80  27   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 20Z 0.08 1608  84  29  -1 0.00
Thu 03/05 21Z 0.10 1509  85  28   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 22Z 0.09 1510  85  30   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 23Z 0.10 1511  82  32   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 00Z 0.09 1512  82  38   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 01Z 0.11 1413  82  44   1 0.00
Fri 03/06 02Z 0.13 1415  83  51   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 03Z 0.13 1517  85  58   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 04Z 0.15 1419  86  64   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 05Z 0.17 1420  88  68   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 06Z 0.18 1421  91  72   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 07Z 0.18 1422  93  76   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 08Z 0.18 1523  94  80   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 09Z 0.18 1523  95  84   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 10Z 0.18 1522  95  89   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 11Z 0.17 1521  95  92   0 0.02
Fri 03/06 12Z 0.17 1520  95  94   0 0.03
Fri 03/06 13Z 0.17 1419  95  93   0 0.03
Fri 03/06 14Z 0.17 1419  95  90  -1 0.03
Fri 03/06 15Z 0.16 1519  94  83  -1 0.03
Fri 03/06 16Z 0.17 1519  93  74   0 0.02
Fri 03/06 17Z 0.16 1520  93  68   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 18Z 0.14 1521  93  65   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 19Z 0.14 1521  94  64   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 20Z 0.12 1620  94  68   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 21Z 0.12 1620  94  67   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 22Z 0.15 1523  93  57   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 23Z 0.12 1625  93  54   0 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.23 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1