
A Nor'easter well off the East Coast will slowly track north this week and may gain some subtropical characteristics. Strong onshore winds will bring flooding, dangerous marine conditions, and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A Pacific storm will bring gusty winds, severe thunderstorms, and mountain snow to portions of California and the Southwest U.S. through Thursday. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261021_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 10/21 00Z 0.15 0217 49 7 6 0.00
Wed 10/21 01Z 0.17 0218 45 8 6 0.00
Wed 10/21 02Z 0.19 0219 42 8 6 0.00
Wed 10/21 03Z 0.22 0318 40 8 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 04Z 0.24 0417 40 7 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 05Z 0.25 0515 41 7 6 0.00
Wed 10/21 06Z 0.25 0613 44 6 6 0.00
Wed 10/21 07Z 0.23 0711 46 6 6 0.00
Wed 10/21 08Z 0.20 0709 46 5 5 0.00
Wed 10/21 09Z 0.15 0708 44 4 6 0.00
Wed 10/21 10Z 0.12 0507 40 3 6 0.00
Wed 10/21 11Z 0.11 0408 36 3 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 12Z 0.12 0408 34 2 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 13Z 0.12 0508 35 2 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 14Z 0.12 0507 36 2 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 15Z 0.11 0506 37 2 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 16Z 0.09 0406 37 2 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 17Z 0.09 0406 38 2 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 18Z 0.10 0505 40 2 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 19Z 0.08 0504 42 2 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 20Z 0.06 0503 42 3 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 21Z 0.05 0403 40 3 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 22Z 0.05 0403 38 3 7 0.00
Wed 10/21 23Z 0.05 0303 37 3 7 0.00
Thu 10/22 00Z 0.04 0203 34 4 7 0.00
Thu 10/22 01Z 0.03 0004 32 4 8 0.00
Thu 10/22 02Z 0.04 0006 29 6 8 0.00
Thu 10/22 03Z 0.03 0008 27 10 8 0.00
Thu 10/22 04Z 0.03 3510 25 12 8 0.00
Thu 10/22 05Z 0.04 0011 21 13 8 0.00
Thu 10/22 06Z 0.06 0012 19 14 8 0.00
Thu 10/22 07Z 0.05 0014 19 15 7 0.00
Thu 10/22 08Z 0.05 0016 18 16 7 0.00
Thu 10/22 09Z 0.05 0018 19 18 7 0.00
Thu 10/22 10Z 0.04 0020 24 18 7 0.00
Thu 10/22 11Z 0.04 0020 34 18 7 0.00
Thu 10/22 12Z 0.05 0020 43 24 7 0.00
Thu 10/22 13Z 0.05 0021 56 33 6 0.00
Thu 10/22 14Z 0.04 0021 71 37 5 0.00
Thu 10/22 15Z 0.02 3521 80 44 4 0.00
Thu 10/22 16Z 0.02 3522 86 40 4 0.00
Thu 10/22 17Z 0.04 3522 90 27 3 0.00
Thu 10/22 18Z 0.04 3524 87 17 2 0.00
Thu 10/22 19Z 0.05 0024 79 20 2 0.00
Thu 10/22 20Z 0.04 0025 69 23 2 0.00
Thu 10/22 21Z 0.03 0027 59 23 2 0.00
Thu 10/22 22Z 0.04 0030 53 17 2 0.00
Thu 10/22 23Z 0.08 0031 49 22 1 0.00
Fri 10/23 00Z 0.13 0032 49 27 0 0.00
Fri 10/23 01Z 0.21 0133 50 13 0 0.00
Fri 10/23 02Z 0.28 0133 51 4 0 0.00
Fri 10/23 03Z 0.30 0133 50 2 -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 04Z 0.29 0131 52 2 -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 05Z 0.25 0129 54 4 -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 06Z 0.23 0128 56 3 -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 07Z 0.22 0129 53 3 -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 08Z 0.20 0228 47 1 0 0.00
Fri 10/23 09Z 0.22 0228 42 2 0 0.00
Fri 10/23 10Z 0.20 0227 42 2 0 0.00
Fri 10/23 11Z 0.19 0227 45 3 0 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.00 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1