National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Winter Storm Advisory in Rutland and Windsor County 1 AM through 7 PM Monday

A coastal low will bring strong winds and snow to southern Vermont tonight into Monday. For Rutland and Windsor Counties, snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected, along with wind gusts to 35 mph, which could result in poor visibility and blowing snow. Very difficult travel is expected across southern Vermont due to the combination of wind and snow, especially between mountain passes. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260222_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 02/22 06Z 0.12 1509  89  36  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 07Z 0.14 1511  89  40  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 08Z 0.12 1612  88  44  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 09Z 0.10 1612  85  52  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 10Z 0.10 1612  83  57  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 11Z 0.10 1612  81  67  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 12Z 0.10 1612  80  76  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 13Z 0.12 1512  80  80  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 14Z 0.15 1512  80  84  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 15Z 0.19 1413  79  87  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 16Z 0.25 1313  78  88  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 17Z 0.29 1313  76  91  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 18Z 0.34 1313  72  93  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 19Z 0.37 1314  69  90  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 20Z 0.38 1313  69  89  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 21Z 0.41 1213  70  86  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 22Z 0.48 1114  71  87  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 23Z 0.58 1017  73  87  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 00Z 0.63 1019  73  86  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 01Z 0.58 0920  69  80  -7 0.00
Mon 02/23 02Z 0.60 1021  70  73  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 03Z 0.64 1022  72  74  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 04Z 0.67 0923  73  62  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 05Z 0.70 0824  75  65  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 06Z 0.72 0824  74  73  -8 0.01
Mon 02/23 07Z 0.73 0825  73  82  -8 0.02
Mon 02/23 08Z 0.69 0726  70  82  -8 0.03
Mon 02/23 09Z 0.74 0628  71  85  -9 0.03
Mon 02/23 10Z 0.77 0629  78  85  -9 0.03
Mon 02/23 11Z 0.75 0531  83  85 -10 0.02
Mon 02/23 12Z 0.73 0532  78  85 -10 0.02
Mon 02/23 13Z 0.77 0532  70  85 -10 0.01
Mon 02/23 14Z 0.65 0432  73  84 -10 0.01
Mon 02/23 15Z 0.61 0431  79  85 -10 0.05
Mon 02/23 16Z 0.59 0330  88  85 -11 0.06
Mon 02/23 17Z 0.48 0330  89  85 -11 0.05
Mon 02/23 18Z 0.37 0231  90  86 -11 0.04
Mon 02/23 19Z 0.26 0132  91  86 -11 0.03
Mon 02/23 20Z 0.18 0033  91  86 -11 0.03
Mon 02/23 21Z 0.12 0033  91  86 -10 0.02
Mon 02/23 22Z 0.11 0034  91  86 -11 0.02
Mon 02/23 23Z 0.11 3536  91  86 -11 0.02
Tue 02/24 00Z 0.12 3537  91  87 -12 0.01
Tue 02/24 01Z 0.11 3537  90  86 -13 0.01
Tue 02/24 02Z 0.12 3536  90  85 -13 0.01
Tue 02/24 03Z 0.16 3534  90  85 -13 0.01
Tue 02/24 04Z 0.26 3430  92  82 -14 0.01
Tue 02/24 05Z 0.35 3429  91  78 -13 0.01
Tue 02/24 06Z 0.35 3330  91  78 -14 0.01
Tue 02/24 07Z 0.40 3330  92  75 -14 0.01
Tue 02/24 08Z 0.62 3328  96  82 -15 0.01
Tue 02/24 09Z 0.53 3227  95  84 -15 0.01
Tue 02/24 10Z 0.38 3226  91  70 -15 0.01
Tue 02/24 11Z 0.34 3224  90  67 -15 0.01
Tue 02/24 12Z 0.33 3123  89  75 -15 0.01
Tue 02/24 13Z 0.32 3123  87  61 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 14Z 0.32 3123  86  41 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 15Z 0.31 3121  85  37 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 16Z 0.35 3121  88  46 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 17Z 0.36 3019  88  57 -15 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.63 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1