
An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for all of northern New York and Vermont for Saturday into Sunday afternoon. Wind chills of 20 to 40 below zero are possible, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Prepare now for the extreme cold, especially if you plan to be outdoors. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260206_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 02/06 00Z 0.12 3006 58 17 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 01Z 0.09 3106 59 18 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 02Z 0.09 3105 63 20 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 03Z 0.05 3203 65 20 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 04Z 0.03 3302 63 21 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 05Z 0.04 0400 59 21 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 06Z 0.04 1602 55 20 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 07Z 0.03 1604 51 17 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 08Z 0.03 1707 52 13 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 09Z 0.02 1708 54 9 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 10Z 0.02 1809 55 6 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 11Z 0.03 1809 57 11 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 12Z 0.03 1811 61 29 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 13Z 0.03 1812 65 47 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 14Z 0.06 1914 68 58 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 15Z 0.09 1913 70 64 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 16Z 0.11 1912 71 73 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 17Z 0.11 2010 74 84 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 18Z 0.12 2008 78 87 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 19Z 0.15 2007 81 88 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 20Z 0.08 1907 83 90 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 21Z 0.05 1807 85 89 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 22Z 0.05 1808 85 86 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 23Z 0.07 1910 85 85 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 00Z 0.08 1910 86 88 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 01Z 0.11 1912 89 90 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 02Z 0.14 1912 92 87 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 03Z 0.16 1913 92 87 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 04Z 0.14 1913 92 87 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 05Z 0.13 1913 92 86 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 06Z 0.12 1913 91 85 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 07Z 0.11 1912 92 85 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 08Z 0.11 1911 91 84 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 09Z 0.12 2009 92 84 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 10Z 0.13 2106 92 84 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 11Z 0.15 2304 93 84 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 12Z 0.15 3106 92 82 -13 0.03
Sat 02/07 13Z 0.10 3310 89 82 -13 0.02
Sat 02/07 14Z 0.10 3414 88 82 -13 0.02
Sat 02/07 15Z 0.09 3415 87 82 -14 0.01
Sat 02/07 16Z 0.10 3315 85 82 -15 0.01
Sat 02/07 17Z 0.12 3316 84 83 -15 0.01
Sat 02/07 18Z 0.14 3317 84 83 -16 0.01
Sat 02/07 19Z 0.16 3319 83 83 -17 0.01
Sat 02/07 20Z 0.18 3321 84 82 -18 0.01
Sat 02/07 21Z 0.19 3323 85 80 -18 0.01
Sat 02/07 22Z 0.19 3325 86 78 -18 0.00
Sat 02/07 23Z 0.20 3326 86 75 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 00Z 0.20 3327 86 72 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 01Z 0.22 3328 85 72 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 02Z 0.21 3327 84 71 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 03Z 0.22 3226 84 73 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 04Z 0.21 3225 83 74 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 05Z 0.19 3224 82 74 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 06Z 0.20 3225 81 68 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 07Z 0.20 3225 81 63 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 08Z 0.22 3226 80 61 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 09Z 0.24 3227 78 57 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 10Z 0.25 3229 76 53 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 11Z 0.24 3229 73 42 -21 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.23 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1