National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Critical Fire Weather Conditions Expected for northern New York and the Champlain Valley Today

Red Flag Warnings have been issued for all of northern New York, outside of the High Peaks, and the Champlain Valley from 11 AM to 7 PM today. Critically low relative humidity values to 20 to 25 percent along with south winds gusting up to 30 MPH will lead to critical fire weather concerns. Should any fires start, weather and fuels will make fire containment difficult. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260428_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 04/28 12Z 0.07 1713  55   9   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 13Z 0.11 1615  56   9   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 14Z 0.12 1616  55   8   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 15Z 0.28 1617  56   7   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 16Z 0.72 1617  57   7   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 17Z 1.65 1616  58   7   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 18Z 3.34 1617  59   7   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 19Z 3.65 1617  61   7   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 20Z 3.08 1617  62   9   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 21Z 1.84 1617  64   8   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 22Z 0.87 1618  67   7   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 23Z 0.35 1620  70   7   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 00Z 0.18 1621  70   9   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 01Z 0.09 1721  70  15   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 02Z 0.06 1720  69  23   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 03Z 0.07 1820  70  33   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 04Z 0.11 1919  73  45   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 05Z 0.19 1919  76  61   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 06Z 0.25 2019  75  67   3 0.00
Wed 04/29 07Z 0.28 2020  71  75   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 08Z 0.29 2119  72  74   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 09Z 0.27 2117  74  66   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 10Z 0.19 2113  75  51   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 11Z 0.15 2110  79  37   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 12Z 0.11 2107  82  30   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 13Z 0.11 2108  83  30   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 14Z 0.09 2006  83  31   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 15Z 0.02 1806  81  31   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 16Z 0.08 1707  78  27   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 17Z 0.19 1807  76  34   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 18Z 0.47 1607  74  36   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 19Z 0.82 1608  73  42   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 20Z 0.73 1709  74  53   7 0.00
Wed 04/29 21Z 0.56 1709  77  69   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 22Z 0.30 1710  80  68   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 23Z 0.22 1611  81  61   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 00Z 0.30 1513  81  54   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 01Z 0.26 1516  82  53   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 02Z 0.25 1518  84  49   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 03Z 0.22 1520  85  45   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 04Z 0.15 1621  88  53   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 05Z 0.15 1623  90  53   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 06Z 0.16 1624  90  55   5 0.00
Thu 04/30 07Z 0.14 1625  90  55   5 0.00
Thu 04/30 08Z 0.13 1623  90  51   5 0.00
Thu 04/30 09Z 0.11 1622  90  55   5 0.00
Thu 04/30 10Z 0.12 1622  89  71   5 0.00
Thu 04/30 11Z 0.13 1622  88  77   5 0.00
Thu 04/30 12Z 0.15 1621  88  80   5 0.01
Thu 04/30 13Z 0.20 1519  87  92   4 0.01
Thu 04/30 14Z 0.26 1419  89  97   4 0.03
Thu 04/30 15Z 0.30 1418  92  98   2 0.05
Thu 04/30 16Z 0.30 1416  94  99   1 0.04
Thu 04/30 17Z 0.24 1412  98  99   1 0.05
Thu 04/30 18Z 0.12 1609  99  99   0 0.04
Thu 04/30 19Z 0.07 1808 100  99   0 0.06
Thu 04/30 20Z 0.18 2107  99  98   0 0.05
Thu 04/30 21Z 0.32 2408  99  96   0 0.03
Thu 04/30 22Z 0.45 2610  98  92   0 0.02
Thu 04/30 23Z 0.59 2814  98  87   0 0.02

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.41 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1