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Critical Fire Weather Conditions Possible Tuesday

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of northern New York and western Vermont from 11 AM to 7 PM Tuesday. Critically low relative humidity values to 20 to 25 percent, with south winds gusting up to 30 MPH will lead to critical fire weather concerns. Should any fires start, weather and fuels will make fire containment difficult. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260427_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 04/27 12Z 0.18 0803  69  41   4 0.00
Mon 04/27 13Z 0.20 0903  70  37   4 0.00
Mon 04/27 14Z 0.35 0903  71  32   4 0.00
Mon 04/27 15Z 0.71 0903  71  30   4 0.00
Mon 04/27 16Z 0.99 1002  71  30   4 0.00
Mon 04/27 17Z 1.12 1102  70  30   5 0.00
Mon 04/27 18Z 0.80 1401  69  30   5 0.00
Mon 04/27 19Z 0.72 1700  70  32   5 0.00
Mon 04/27 20Z 0.48 2600  71  37   6 0.00
Mon 04/27 21Z 0.38 0700  72  37   6 0.01
Mon 04/27 22Z 0.60 1003  69  26   6 0.00
Mon 04/27 23Z 0.46 1304  66  23   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 00Z 0.37 1406  65  20   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 01Z 0.32 1508  66  16   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 02Z 0.23 1610  64  14   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 03Z 0.06 1711  63  14   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 04Z 0.07 1710  60  11   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 05Z 0.07 1710  58  11   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 06Z 0.10 1712  58  10   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 07Z 0.23 1613  55  10   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 08Z 0.07 1713  54  10   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 09Z 0.09 1813  54   9   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 10Z 0.18 1614  54   8   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 11Z 0.19 1617  55   8   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 12Z 0.30 1519  57   8   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 13Z 0.28 1521  61   7   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 14Z 0.34 1521  64   7   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 15Z 0.38 1620  67   6   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 16Z 0.99 1619  67   6   3 0.00
Tue 04/28 17Z 1.47 1618  66   6   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 18Z 2.23 1617  63   6   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 19Z 2.29 1618  62   7   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 20Z 1.32 1617  64   8   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 21Z 0.83 1617  66  11   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 22Z 0.54 1619  69  47   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 23Z 0.37 1622  71  74   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 00Z 0.19 1623  70  89   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 01Z 0.07 1723  69  94   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 02Z 0.05 1823  70  94   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 03Z 0.11 1923  72  94   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 04Z 0.12 1922  75  92   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 05Z 0.15 1921  73  89   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 06Z 0.22 2022  71  85   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 07Z 0.32 2123  77  87   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 08Z 0.28 2120  88  80   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 09Z 0.17 2114  90  62   7 0.00
Wed 04/29 10Z 0.15 2112  91  50   7 0.00
Wed 04/29 11Z 0.15 2211  92  44   7 0.00
Wed 04/29 12Z 0.10 2108  91  35   7 0.00
Wed 04/29 13Z 0.04 1907  89  32   7 0.00
Wed 04/29 14Z 0.03 1808  89  29   7 0.00
Wed 04/29 15Z 0.02 1709  89  27   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 16Z 0.03 1710  87  30   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 17Z 0.04 1711  85  34   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 18Z 0.15 1712  83  34   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 19Z 0.45 1613  82  35   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 20Z 0.53 1615  83  37   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 21Z 0.30 1617  84  36   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 22Z 0.26 1621  86  33   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 23Z 0.28 1624  86  35   6 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.01 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1