National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall This Weekend in the Southern Plains and in South Florida; Bering Sea Storm in Alaska

A slow moving front will produce a threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather from New Mexico into the western High Plains through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is also expected this weekend in South Florida. The Bering Sea storm continues to bring heavy precipitation, strong winds, and minor to major coastal flooding through the weekend across western Alaska. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261023_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 10/23 12Z 0.09 0116  66   1  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 13Z 0.08 0116  64   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 14Z 0.10 0116  61   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 15Z 0.13 0115  56   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 16Z 0.14 0214  53   3   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 17Z 0.13 0212  49   4   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 18Z 0.13 0211  46   3   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 19Z 0.13 0210  43   2   2 0.00
Fri 10/23 20Z 0.11 0209  39   2   2 0.00
Fri 10/23 21Z 0.11 0309  34   2   3 0.00
Fri 10/23 22Z 0.09 0308  29   2   4 0.00
Fri 10/23 23Z 0.07 0207  25   2   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 00Z 0.07 0306  22   2   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 01Z 0.05 0304  20   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 02Z 0.04 0203  19   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 03Z 0.03 3402  18   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 04Z 0.05 3103  17   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 05Z 0.08 3004  16   2   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 06Z 0.10 3005  14   2   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 07Z 0.14 3007  13   2   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 08Z 0.16 3009  12   1   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 09Z 0.18 3110  12   1   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 10Z 0.18 3111  13   1   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 11Z 0.15 3211  15   1   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 12Z 0.13 3211  17   1   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 13Z 0.12 3310  16   1   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 14Z 0.10 3310  15   1   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 15Z 0.11 3209  15   3   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 16Z 0.12 3208  16   5   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 17Z 0.13 3108  15   5   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 18Z 0.15 3109  16   7   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 19Z 0.17 3110  15  10   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 20Z 0.17 3111  12  19   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 21Z 0.15 3211  11  28   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 22Z 0.14 3211  12  34   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 23Z 0.12 3311  15  40   5 0.00
Sun 10/25 00Z 0.10 3310  15  45   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 01Z 0.08 3308  14  47   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 02Z 0.07 3306  13  50   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 03Z 0.07 3205  12  52   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 04Z 0.08 3004  12  52   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 05Z 0.10 2905  12  48   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 06Z 0.11 2805  12  45   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 07Z 0.16 2707  13  48   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 08Z 0.17 2708  13  45   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 09Z 0.16 2807  12  42   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 10Z 0.15 2807  10  34   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 11Z 0.13 2806  10  31   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 12Z 0.13 2706  10  30   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 13Z 0.15 2707  10  30   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 14Z 0.17 2608  10  28   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 15Z 0.17 2508   9  27   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 16Z 0.18 2509  10  27   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 17Z 0.22 2510  11  28   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 18Z 0.23 2511   9  29   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 19Z 0.24 2511   7  28  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 20Z 0.26 2512   6  26  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 21Z 0.29 2513   5  22  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 22Z 0.34 2515   7  24  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 23Z 0.36 2516  10  27  10 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1