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Nor'easter Bringing Dangerous Coastal Conditions to the Mid-Atlantic; Pacific Storm Impacting the Southwest U.S.

A Nor'easter well off the East Coast will slowly track north this week and may gain some subtropical characteristics. Strong onshore winds will bring flooding, dangerous marine conditions, and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A Pacific storm is bringing gusty winds, severe thunderstorms, and mountain snow to portions of California and the Southwest U.S. through Thursday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261021_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 10/21 12Z 0.06 0603  47   2   5 0.00
Wed 10/21 13Z 0.06 0403  45   2   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 14Z 0.05 0304  43   2   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 15Z 0.06 0305  43   2   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 16Z 0.10 0406  44   2   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 17Z 0.11 0506  44   2   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 18Z 0.13 0805  45   2   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 19Z 0.12 0805  44   2   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 20Z 0.09 0803  43   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 21Z 0.07 0603  41   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 22Z 0.08 0703  37   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 23Z 0.07 0703  35   2   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 00Z 0.06 0503  35   2   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 01Z 0.04 0203  35   2   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 02Z 0.03 3505  34   2   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 03Z 0.02 3508  32   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 04Z 0.03 0010  29   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 05Z 0.05 0111  27   3   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 06Z 0.07 0112  25   5   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 07Z 0.08 0112  24   8   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 08Z 0.07 0114  24  10   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 09Z 0.07 0116  24  14   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 10Z 0.06 0019  23  16   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 11Z 0.07 0020  22  18   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 12Z 0.06 0021  24  20   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 13Z 0.06 0021  32  19   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 14Z 0.05 0021  43  18   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 15Z 0.03 0021  56  24   5 0.00
Thu 10/22 16Z 0.02 3522  69  24   4 0.00
Thu 10/22 17Z 0.05 3523  79  24   4 0.00
Thu 10/22 18Z 0.05 3523  85  29   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 19Z 0.05 3524  88  30   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 20Z 0.08 3525  87  29   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 21Z 0.06 3526  79  24   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 22Z 0.04 3527  68  21   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 23Z 0.05 0028  59  30   2 0.00
Fri 10/23 00Z 0.08 0028  57  34   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 01Z 0.16 0127  58  33   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 02Z 0.25 0227  57  22   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 03Z 0.30 0227  46  14   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 04Z 0.29 0227  46   6   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 05Z 0.24 0225  46   4  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 06Z 0.21 0125  47   3  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 07Z 0.20 0124  47   3  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 08Z 0.17 0124  46   3  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 09Z 0.18 0124  44   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 10Z 0.20 0225  42   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 11Z 0.22 0224  43   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 12Z 0.23 0223  40   3   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 13Z 0.24 0223  38   4   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 14Z 0.23 0322  37   4   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 15Z 0.22 0320  36   3   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 16Z 0.20 0318  35   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 17Z 0.18 0316  34   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 18Z 0.16 0214  31   2   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 19Z 0.13 0212  28   2   2 0.00
Fri 10/23 20Z 0.12 0212  25   2   3 0.00
Fri 10/23 21Z 0.11 0212  21   2   4 0.00
Fri 10/23 22Z 0.10 0211  19   2   4 0.00
Fri 10/23 23Z 0.10 0210  16   2   4 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1