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Extreme Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.; Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the Great Basin and Southwest today, and exceptionally dry and windy conditions will promote rapid wildfire spread through the weekend. Scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260628_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 06/28 00Z 0.07 3405  82  59  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 01Z 0.06 3406  80  58  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 02Z 0.03 0006  77  59  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 03Z 0.06 0106  74  59  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 04Z 0.09 0106  73  62  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 05Z 0.08 0106  73  66  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 06Z 0.04 0006  72  68  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 07Z 0.06 0006  71  56  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 08Z 0.06 0007  69  44  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 09Z 0.06 0008  68  38  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 10Z 0.06 0009  69  33  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 11Z 0.08 0010  70  29  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 12Z 0.11 0010  72  27  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 13Z 0.15 0109  76  28  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 14Z 0.20 0007  80  30  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 15Z 0.45 0005  82  31  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 16Z 0.65 3505  81  36  11 0.01
Sun 06/28 17Z 0.44 3504  78  41  12 0.03
Sun 06/28 18Z 0.38 3404  75  37  12 0.02
Sun 06/28 19Z 0.67 3304  74  32  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 20Z 0.94 3205  73  26  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 21Z 0.75 3307  72  21  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 22Z 0.44 3308  68  25  13 0.00
Sun 06/28 23Z 0.20 3308  61  22  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 00Z 0.11 3409  56  22  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 01Z 0.05 3509  56  21  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 02Z 0.06 0008  58  21  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 03Z 0.09 0008  59  22  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 04Z 0.11 3508  59  25  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 05Z 0.12 3507  60  25  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 06Z 0.17 0007  62  21  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 07Z 0.19 3507  63  19  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 08Z 0.18 3507  64  16  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 09Z 0.16 3407  65  13  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 10Z 0.16 3408  67  13  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 11Z 0.13 3508  68  10  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 12Z 0.14 3408  68  12  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 13Z 0.17 3406  70  12  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 14Z 0.28 3405  71  11  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 15Z 0.42 3304  71  10  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 16Z 0.76 3204  72  14  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 17Z 1.21 3104  71  16  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 18Z 1.37 3104  69  13  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 19Z 1.31 3004  65  10  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 20Z 1.36 3004  62   9  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 21Z 1.09 3005  59   8  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 22Z 0.53 2905  58   8  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 23Z 0.30 2904  61   9  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 00Z 0.29 2804  63   9  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 01Z 0.33 2704  66  12  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 02Z 0.39 2605  68  17  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 03Z 0.49 2607  70  20  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 04Z 0.58 2608  72  22  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 05Z 0.64 2609  74  22  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 06Z 0.66 2609  74  21  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 07Z 0.69 2610  76  17  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 08Z 0.69 2611  75  19  12 0.00
Tue 06/30 09Z 0.60 2610  74  25  12 0.00
Tue 06/30 10Z 0.54 2609  73  29  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 11Z 0.58 2610  74  33  13 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.08 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1