National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Frost Advisory for the Champlain Valley from midnight tonight to 7 AM Thursday

Temperatures in the Champlain Valley as low as 30 will result in frost formation that could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. Sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered. Take steps now to protect tender plants from the cold. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20250430_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 04/30 18Z 1.00 3115  64   4   0 0.00
Wed 04/30 19Z 0.70 3118  59   5   0 0.00
Wed 04/30 20Z 0.59 3117  59   6   0 0.00
Wed 04/30 21Z 0.55 3118  59   7   0 0.00
Wed 04/30 22Z 0.45 3118  55   7   1 0.00
Wed 04/30 23Z 0.35 3218  47   8   1 0.00
Thu 05/01 00Z 0.29 3219  40   9   2 0.00
Thu 05/01 01Z 0.28 3219  40  10   2 0.00
Thu 05/01 02Z 0.25 3217  42  10   1 0.00
Thu 05/01 03Z 0.18 3315  41  11   1 0.00
Thu 05/01 04Z 0.13 3312  37  12   2 0.00
Thu 05/01 05Z 0.16 3211  35  12   2 0.00
Thu 05/01 06Z 0.16 3109  29  13   2 0.00
Thu 05/01 07Z 0.15 3009  25  14   3 0.00
Thu 05/01 08Z 0.14 3008  21  15   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 09Z 0.15 2908  19  15   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 10Z 0.17 2908  18  15   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 11Z 0.15 2807  17  14   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 12Z 0.16 2808  17  13   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 13Z 0.14 2906  19  11   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 14Z 0.14 2805  21   9   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 15Z 0.12 2603  25   8   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 16Z 0.16 2503  29   6   3 0.00
Thu 05/01 17Z 0.34 2304  31   5   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 18Z 0.38 2104  30   5   4 0.00
Thu 05/01 19Z 0.46 2105  29   7   5 0.00
Thu 05/01 20Z 0.42 2106  28  14   6 0.00
Thu 05/01 21Z 0.32 2107  28  18   6 0.00
Thu 05/01 22Z 0.10 1908  28  15   7 0.00
Thu 05/01 23Z 0.06 1810  36  40   7 0.00
Fri 05/02 00Z 0.09 1813  44  74   7 0.00
Fri 05/02 01Z 0.07 1817  50  93   8 0.00
Fri 05/02 02Z 0.07 1819  58  94   8 0.00
Fri 05/02 03Z 0.11 1922  68  96   8 0.00
Fri 05/02 04Z 0.17 1927  82  96   8 0.02
Fri 05/02 05Z 0.27 2032  91  85   9 0.04
Fri 05/02 06Z 0.34 2036  90  85  10 0.02
Fri 05/02 07Z 0.36 2137  87  81  11 0.01
Fri 05/02 08Z 0.37 2139  90  86  11 0.02
Fri 05/02 09Z 0.36 2138  92  79  11 0.03
Fri 05/02 10Z 0.39 2137  93  86  11 0.01
Fri 05/02 11Z 0.43 2135  95  74  10 0.01
Fri 05/02 12Z 0.46 2133  96  89  10 0.01
Fri 05/02 13Z 0.52 2231  97  77  10 0.01
Fri 05/02 14Z 0.56 2327  97  54  10 0.02
Fri 05/02 15Z 0.61 2324  95  43   9 0.01
Fri 05/02 16Z 0.72 2323  90  38   9 0.00
Fri 05/02 17Z 1.66 2322  89  36   9 0.00
Fri 05/02 18Z 2.68 2321  88  37   9 0.00
Fri 05/02 19Z 2.51 2320  88  35  10 0.00
Fri 05/02 20Z 2.93 2320  89  35  10 0.00
Fri 05/02 21Z 4.05 2420  87  37  10 0.01
Fri 05/02 22Z 2.44 2422  90  47  10 0.01
Fri 05/02 23Z 1.39 2520  83  49  10 0.00
Sat 05/03 00Z 1.06 2520  85  66  10 0.00
Sat 05/03 01Z 0.98 2518  90  76   9 0.01
Sat 05/03 02Z 0.74 2517  91  75   9 0.00
Sat 05/03 03Z 0.62 2516  91  75   9 0.01
Sat 05/03 04Z 0.56 2516  90  78   9 0.01
Sat 05/03 05Z 0.50 2515  91  72   9 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.26 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1