
Significant river flooding is forecast along the St. John’s and the Peace rivers through the end of the week as flood waters will be slow to recede. Periods of rainfall and thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday and Friday. In Puerto Rico, increased moisture in the Atlantic will produce heavy rainfall for the island. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261103_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 11/03 06Z 0.46 2814 59 86 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 07Z 0.45 2814 58 86 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 08Z 0.41 2812 56 87 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 09Z 0.34 2710 56 83 10 0.00
Tue 11/03 10Z 0.33 2610 58 90 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 11Z 0.36 2610 61 92 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 12Z 0.36 2510 63 94 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 13Z 0.37 2411 63 91 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 14Z 0.36 2311 61 94 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 15Z 0.35 2212 61 94 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 16Z 0.40 2215 63 90 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 17Z 0.46 2217 66 90 8 0.00
Tue 11/03 18Z 0.48 2217 69 96 8 0.00
Tue 11/03 19Z 0.48 2218 75 98 8 0.00
Tue 11/03 20Z 0.51 2221 81 96 8 0.01
Tue 11/03 21Z 0.62 2224 85 93 8 0.00
Tue 11/03 22Z 0.62 2325 91 87 9 0.01
Tue 11/03 23Z 0.65 2425 92 80 9 0.02
Wed 11/04 00Z 0.65 2525 94 76 10 0.01
Wed 11/04 01Z 0.68 2625 93 64 10 0.01
Wed 11/04 02Z 0.69 2624 91 60 10 0.01
Wed 11/04 03Z 0.73 2725 89 57 10 0.01
Wed 11/04 04Z 0.75 2625 87 55 10 0.01
Wed 11/04 05Z 0.78 2625 83 51 10 0.00
Wed 11/04 06Z 0.82 2526 83 48 10 0.00
Wed 11/04 07Z 0.78 2526 79 44 10 0.00
Wed 11/04 08Z 0.76 2526 72 43 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 09Z 0.81 2527 70 62 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 10Z 0.81 2627 70 72 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 11Z 0.82 2627 70 66 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 12Z 0.83 2528 70 67 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 13Z 0.79 2527 69 74 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 14Z 0.72 2626 66 74 12 0.00
Wed 11/04 15Z 0.64 2624 64 68 12 0.00
Wed 11/04 16Z 0.57 2521 61 65 12 0.00
Wed 11/04 17Z 0.51 2519 58 64 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 18Z 0.48 2518 55 54 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 19Z 0.44 2417 54 44 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 20Z 0.43 2416 57 44 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 21Z 0.44 2417 59 46 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 22Z 0.45 2418 61 47 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 23Z 0.46 2418 63 42 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 00Z 0.45 2419 63 44 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 01Z 0.41 2418 61 46 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 02Z 0.39 2418 57 51 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 03Z 0.38 2319 52 60 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 04Z 0.40 2320 48 64 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 05Z 0.42 2322 41 65 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 06Z 0.43 2224 37 50 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 07Z 0.48 2227 37 41 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 08Z 0.50 2328 39 36 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 09Z 0.48 2228 41 37 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 10Z 0.46 2228 43 40 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 11Z 0.47 2230 44 42 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 12Z 0.52 2232 48 55 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 13Z 0.56 2233 53 65 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 14Z 0.52 2232 65 68 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 15Z 0.49 2230 72 76 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 16Z 0.50 2229 84 90 12 0.00
Thu 11/05 17Z 0.55 2229 96 92 11 0.01
Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.10 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1