National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Strong Winds Expected Tonight into Sunday Morning

A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of northern New York and northwestern Vermont from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM Sunday. South to southeast wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected, with locally higher gusts possible. Strong winds may break limbs or down trees, resulting in isolated power outages. Travel may be difficult for high profile vehicles. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260404_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 04/04 00Z 0.99 2437  84  21  10 0.00
Sat 04/04 01Z 1.33 2539  88  16   9 0.00
Sat 04/04 02Z 1.29 2639  96  15   9 0.01
Sat 04/04 03Z 1.36 2738  98  20   7 0.05
Sat 04/04 04Z 1.31 2837  97  21   5 0.04
Sat 04/04 05Z 1.22 2836  96  20   3 0.02
Sat 04/04 06Z 0.92 2933  92  20   2 0.01
Sat 04/04 07Z 0.59 3029  90  18   1 0.01
Sat 04/04 08Z 0.38 3125  89  16   1 0.01
Sat 04/04 09Z 0.23 3223  86  14   1 0.01
Sat 04/04 10Z 0.13 3419  81  12   2 0.00
Sat 04/04 11Z 0.09 3517  77  10   2 0.00
Sat 04/04 12Z 0.10 0115  73   9   3 0.00
Sat 04/04 13Z 0.13 0314  63   8   4 0.00
Sat 04/04 14Z 0.17 0513  56   7   4 0.00
Sat 04/04 15Z 0.19 0712  53   9   4 0.00
Sat 04/04 16Z 0.19 0911  52  15   4 0.00
Sat 04/04 17Z 0.19 1212  56  27   4 0.00
Sat 04/04 18Z 0.20 1314  59  41   4 0.00
Sat 04/04 19Z 0.24 1416  64  63   3 0.00
Sat 04/04 20Z 0.43 1420  67  70   2 0.00
Sat 04/04 21Z 0.58 1422  69  68   2 0.00
Sat 04/04 22Z 0.37 1526  68  73   3 0.00
Sat 04/04 23Z 0.22 1529  65  97   5 0.00
Sun 04/05 00Z 0.15 1632  67  97   5 0.00
Sun 04/05 01Z 0.12 1634  75  93   5 0.00
Sun 04/05 02Z 0.11 1635  79  90   5 0.00
Sun 04/05 03Z 0.08 1736  84  88   6 0.00
Sun 04/05 04Z 0.06 1737  91  88   7 0.01
Sun 04/05 05Z 0.05 1740  95  87   7 0.02
Sun 04/05 06Z 0.04 1843  96  79   8 0.02
Sun 04/05 07Z 0.05 1845  96  90   8 0.02
Sun 04/05 08Z 0.06 1846  96  81   9 0.04
Sun 04/05 09Z 0.09 1845  96  80   9 0.02
Sun 04/05 10Z 0.14 1944  97  89   9 0.04
Sun 04/05 11Z 0.20 1942  97  89   9 0.06
Sun 04/05 12Z 0.32 2039  98  93   7 0.10
Sun 04/05 13Z 0.41 2234  98  98   5 0.11
Sun 04/05 14Z 0.51 2331  98  97   4 0.12
Sun 04/05 15Z 0.63 2430  90  80   3 0.06
Sun 04/05 16Z 0.76 2529  87  39   2 0.01
Sun 04/05 17Z 0.87 2527  91  39   0 0.00
Sun 04/05 18Z 1.07 2526  91  28   0 0.01
Sun 04/05 19Z 2.00 2526  95  21  -1 0.01
Sun 04/05 20Z 3.64 2526  92  24  -2 0.00
Sun 04/05 21Z 7.72 2627  87  16  -2 0.01
Sun 04/05 22Z 9.18 2629  86  20  -4 0.00
Sun 04/05 23Z 3.28 2630  86  24  -5 0.00
Mon 04/06 00Z 2.19 2630  86  28  -5 0.00
Mon 04/06 01Z 2.16 2631  88  35  -6 0.00
Mon 04/06 02Z 1.88 2732  90  43  -7 0.00
Mon 04/06 03Z 1.78 2732  95  59  -8 0.01
Mon 04/06 04Z 1.60 2732  96  67  -8 0.01
Mon 04/06 05Z 1.38 2832  96  69  -8 0.01
Mon 04/06 06Z 1.30 2832  97  67  -8 0.01
Mon 04/06 07Z 1.36 2931  97  65  -8 0.01
Mon 04/06 08Z 1.58 2930  98  50  -9 0.01
Mon 04/06 09Z 1.52 3028  98  43 -10 0.01
Mon 04/06 10Z 1.37 3026  97  34 -10 0.01
Mon 04/06 11Z 1.07 3025  95  21 -10 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.90 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1