National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Extreme Heat Continues; Severe Thunderstorms into Upper Midwest; Strong Bering Sea Storm

Wildfires and poor air quality continue for the Pacific Northwest, Rockies and extended into the Plains. Severe thunderstorms possible for the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Monday along a frontal boundary. Another boundary will focus showers and thunderstorms for the eastern seaboard with localized heavy rainfall possible. For Alaska, a strong Bering Sea storm will bring winds and rainfall. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260803_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 08/03 00Z 0.15 1823  84  52  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 01Z 0.17 1825  82  59  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 02Z 0.16 1828  80  66  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 03Z 0.17 1928  76  75  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 04Z 0.17 1925  75  83  16 0.00
Mon 08/03 05Z 0.15 1925  74  81  16 0.00
Mon 08/03 06Z 0.11 1824  77  87  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 07Z 0.05 1824  88  96  15 0.03
Mon 08/03 08Z 0.10 1726  94  94  15 0.11
Mon 08/03 09Z 0.14 1728  95  92  16 0.18
Mon 08/03 10Z 0.22 1828  97  88  16 0.30
Mon 08/03 11Z 0.18 1927  97  85  16 0.11
Mon 08/03 12Z 0.22 1926  97  83  16 0.04
Mon 08/03 13Z 0.35 2025  97  84  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 14Z 0.40 2024  97  78  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 15Z 0.45 2023  98  80  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 16Z 0.44 2022  96  79  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 17Z 0.46 2022  92  76  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 18Z 0.63 2021  90  79  16 0.00
Mon 08/03 19Z 1.49 2020  92  82  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 20Z 0.59 2219  95  90  16 0.29
Mon 08/03 21Z 0.75 2424  90  56  15 0.38
Mon 08/03 22Z 0.83 2422  95  48  14 0.02
Mon 08/03 23Z 0.87 2524  97  41  13 0.04
Tue 08/04 00Z 0.77 2723  98  49  12 0.06
Tue 08/04 01Z 0.75 2926  98  74  12 0.07
Tue 08/04 02Z 0.69 3129  99  86  11 0.11
Tue 08/04 03Z 0.55 3231  98  91  11 0.10
Tue 08/04 04Z 0.55 3232  92  67  11 0.02
Tue 08/04 05Z 0.67 3232  90  28  10 0.01
Tue 08/04 06Z 0.83 3129  84   8  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 07Z 0.73 3228  79   6  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 08Z 0.57 3224  74   4  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 09Z 0.51 3222  71   4  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 10Z 0.47 3220  70   4  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 11Z 0.46 3119  67   3  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 12Z 0.43 3119  63   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 13Z 0.40 3118  60   3  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 14Z 0.37 3117  57   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 15Z 0.41 3115  60   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 16Z 0.46 3013  61   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 17Z 0.59 3011  62   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 18Z 0.58 2910  60   1  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 19Z 0.43 2808  56   1  14 0.00
Tue 08/04 20Z 0.29 2807  50   1  15 0.00
Tue 08/04 21Z 0.24 2706  45   2  15 0.00
Tue 08/04 22Z 0.21 2606  41   2  16 0.00
Tue 08/04 23Z 0.19 2506  38   3  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 00Z 0.21 2407  39   3  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 01Z 0.22 2308  39   2  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 02Z 0.24 2308  42   1  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 03Z 0.29 2310  50   1  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 04Z 0.34 2311  55   1  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 05Z 0.32 2410  54   1  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 06Z 0.29 2310  49   1  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 07Z 0.25 2310  49   1  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 08Z 0.27 2310  51   1  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 09Z 0.27 2310  54   1  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 10Z 0.30 2411  57   1  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 11Z 0.31 2410  62   1  14 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 1.94 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1