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Dangerous Heat Builds and Expands; Critical Fire Weather for the Southwest; Severe Thunderstorms for Plains and Midwest

Dangerous to record breaking heat will build across the center of the nation and slowly build eastward this week. Wildfire conditions remain critical for the Southwest and portions of the Great Basin through Monday. For the northern Plains and upper Midwest, severe thunderstorms with the potential for large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260629_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 06/29 00Z 0.17 3411  60  42  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 01Z 0.04 3513  54  42  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 02Z 0.11 0015  52  46  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 03Z 0.21 0115  55  49  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 04Z 0.27 0212  58  55  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 05Z 0.24 0309  61  60  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 06Z 0.20 0207  60  63  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 07Z 0.16 0106  60  57  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 08Z 0.14 3506  60  52  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 09Z 0.14 3506  60  46  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 10Z 0.12 0007  60  41  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 11Z 0.10 3508  60  35  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 12Z 0.11 3408  61  27  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 13Z 0.12 3407  65  20  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 14Z 0.14 3406  67  18  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 15Z 0.23 3304  67  19  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 16Z 0.31 3305  65  24  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 17Z 0.52 3205  63  33  13 0.01
Mon 06/29 18Z 0.99 3106  60  28  13 0.01
Mon 06/29 19Z 1.30 3105  56  22  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 20Z 1.30 3105  53  19  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 21Z 0.81 3105  51  24  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 22Z 0.44 3105  49  24  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 23Z 0.36 3005  48  21  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 00Z 0.41 3006  49  15  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 01Z 0.45 3005  52  12  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 02Z 0.52 2705  55  11  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 03Z 0.47 2505  57   9  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 04Z 0.57 2407  58  10  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 05Z 0.62 2409  60  13  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 06Z 0.71 2311  61  18  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 07Z 0.77 2413  61  22  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 08Z 0.74 2415  60  28  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 09Z 0.80 2416  60  40  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 10Z 0.79 2416  64  46  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 11Z 0.79 2517  69  51  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 12Z 0.79 2518  73  48  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 13Z 0.75 2418  77  40  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 14Z 0.83 2519  83  47  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 15Z 0.69 2517  90  91  13 0.02
Tue 06/30 16Z 0.35 2312  81  95  14 0.07
Tue 06/30 17Z 0.36 2313  83  95  14 0.01
Tue 06/30 18Z 0.39 2315  92  85  14 0.02
Tue 06/30 19Z 0.41 2216  91  75  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 20Z 0.51 2218  91  83  16 0.01
Tue 06/30 21Z 0.60 2221  95  84  16 0.01
Tue 06/30 22Z 0.62 2223  95  83  16 0.01
Tue 06/30 23Z 0.71 2325  94  91  16 0.01
Wed 07/01 00Z 0.68 2325  95  89  17 0.07
Wed 07/01 01Z 0.72 2327  95  79  17 0.14
Wed 07/01 02Z 0.73 2428  97  75  18 0.17
Wed 07/01 03Z 0.82 2529  98  69  18 0.08
Wed 07/01 04Z 0.84 2628  97  52  18 0.09
Wed 07/01 05Z 0.76 2826  97  39  18 0.07
Wed 07/01 06Z 0.69 2823  95  48  18 0.08
Wed 07/01 07Z 0.71 2724  89  67  18 0.20
Wed 07/01 08Z 0.65 2824  86  43  18 0.09
Wed 07/01 09Z 0.61 2823  91  26  18 0.01
Wed 07/01 10Z 0.65 2824  95  21  18 0.06
Wed 07/01 11Z 0.63 2924  96   9  18 0.04

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 1.28 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1