National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold Friday Night and Saturday

Cold temperatures and gusty winds will occur Friday night and Saturday. Temperatures between -10 and -20 with sustained winds between 5 and 15 mph will cause wind chills between -20 and -40 for most areas Friday night and Saturday morning. Stronger gusts will cause it to feel colder at times. Winds decrease on Saturday and temperatures rise modestly, raising wind chills into the -10 to -20 range. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260121_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 01/21 12Z 0.58 2624  73   2 -17 0.00
Wed 01/21 13Z 0.57 2524  68   2 -16 0.00
Wed 01/21 14Z 0.55 2524  67  24 -16 0.00
Wed 01/21 15Z 0.49 2421  65  56 -15 0.00
Wed 01/21 16Z 0.48 2421  61  70 -15 0.00
Wed 01/21 17Z 0.48 2321  55  82 -14 0.00
Wed 01/21 18Z 0.46 2222  49  87 -14 0.00
Wed 01/21 19Z 0.49 2123  49  87 -14 0.00
Wed 01/21 20Z 0.46 2124  62  88 -13 0.00
Wed 01/21 21Z 0.38 2027  66  88 -11 0.00
Wed 01/21 22Z 0.35 1931  86  89 -11 0.00
Wed 01/21 23Z 0.43 2036  89  90 -10 0.03
Thu 01/22 00Z 0.61 2040  88  93 -11 0.02
Thu 01/22 01Z 0.71 2141  87  87 -11 0.00
Thu 01/22 02Z 0.73 2142  92  91 -10 0.01
Thu 01/22 03Z 0.73 2140  96  89  -9 0.01
Thu 01/22 04Z 0.72 2137  96  92  -8 0.01
Thu 01/22 05Z 0.67 2134  96  91  -7 0.01
Thu 01/22 06Z 0.71 2234  97  88  -7 0.02
Thu 01/22 07Z 0.74 2233  96  93  -7 0.01
Thu 01/22 08Z 0.77 2332  96  70  -7 0.01
Thu 01/22 09Z 0.81 2332  96  50  -7 0.01
Thu 01/22 10Z 0.82 2331  95  59  -7 0.01
Thu 01/22 11Z 0.84 2331  95  75  -7 0.01
Thu 01/22 12Z 0.95 2333  94  81  -8 0.01
Thu 01/22 13Z 1.15 2434  95  86  -9 0.01
Thu 01/22 14Z 1.60 2434  91  76 -10 0.01
Thu 01/22 15Z 2.00 2532  93  49 -11 0.00
Thu 01/22 16Z 2.85 2528  92  49 -11 0.00
Thu 01/22 17Z 9.79 2525  87  46 -12 0.00
Thu 01/22 18Z 13.34 2523  83  41 -12 0.00
Thu 01/22 19Z 10.94 2423  83  45 -11 0.00
Thu 01/22 20Z 3.08 2424  88  37 -11 0.00
Thu 01/22 21Z 2.06 2427  92  53 -11 0.01
Thu 01/22 22Z 4.86 2531  81  53 -12 0.01
Thu 01/22 23Z 2.27 2631  84  41 -12 0.01
Fri 01/23 00Z 1.70 2630  81  38 -13 0.01
Fri 01/23 01Z 1.90 2631  84  37 -14 0.00
Fri 01/23 02Z 1.76 2631  82  41 -15 0.00
Fri 01/23 03Z 1.53 2532  84  45 -15 0.00
Fri 01/23 04Z 1.43 2631  86  43 -16 0.00
Fri 01/23 05Z 1.28 2629  84  39 -16 0.00
Fri 01/23 06Z 1.23 2629  88  40 -17 0.01
Fri 01/23 07Z 1.41 2628  83  39 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 08Z 1.17 2626  82  38 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 09Z 1.26 2525  90  40 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 10Z 1.39 2526  92  47 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 11Z 1.09 2526  87  52 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 12Z 0.93 2428  78  41 -16 0.00
Fri 01/23 13Z 1.10 2333  89  31 -16 0.00
Fri 01/23 14Z 1.76 2436  93  23 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 15Z 8.49 2534  92  19 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 16Z 14.25 2530  88  19 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 17Z 17.08 2627  69  17 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 18Z 16.31 2625  70  23 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 19Z 15.02 2624  74  30 -19 0.00
Fri 01/23 20Z 12.06 2623  75  39 -19 0.00
Fri 01/23 21Z 9.48 2723  75  49 -19 0.01
Fri 01/23 22Z 5.57 2723  77  58 -20 0.01
Fri 01/23 23Z 3.22 2825  79  60 -20 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.27 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1