National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Hazardous Coastal Conditions for the Mid-Atlantic; Storm System Approaching Southern Alaska

A Nor'easter will create hazardous marine and coastal conditions along the Mid-Atlantic coast through mid-week, with significant coastal flooding and beach erosion possible. Meanwhile, another strong storm system is forecast to bring high winds and heavy precipitation to portions of southern Alaska. Elsewhere, relatively benign weather is expected through the first half of the work week. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261019_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 10/19 00Z 0.29 2411  57  23   5 0.00
Mon 10/19 01Z 0.27 2512  50  22   7 0.00
Mon 10/19 02Z 0.24 2611  42  21   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 03Z 0.21 2610  35  21   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 04Z 0.18 2608  30  21   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 05Z 0.17 2708  28  21   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 06Z 0.15 2707  27  21   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 07Z 0.15 2707  27  21   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 08Z 0.15 2807  28  20   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 09Z 0.14 2807  28  20   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 10Z 0.12 2906  26  20   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 11Z 0.10 2905  24  21   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 12Z 0.11 2906  24  21   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 13Z 0.11 2905  23  20   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 14Z 0.12 2805  22  21   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 15Z 0.12 2806  21  22  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 16Z 0.12 2705  20  21  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 17Z 0.13 2706  19  19  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 18Z 0.13 2806  19  18  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 19Z 0.12 2906  19  17  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 20Z 0.12 3007  18  16  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 21Z 0.14 3008  17  16  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 22Z 0.13 3109  17  18  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 23Z 0.11 3210  21  19  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 00Z 0.10 3311  26  18   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 01Z 0.07 3312  29  16   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 02Z 0.04 3412  31  13   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 03Z 0.03 3513  34   9   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 04Z 0.03 3515  37   6   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 05Z 0.05 3517  44   6   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 06Z 0.08 0018  52   7   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 07Z 0.11 0020  57  11   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 08Z 0.16 0122  56  13   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 09Z 0.22 0124  49  13   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 10Z 0.23 0124  39  10   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 11Z 0.25 0225  34   8   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 12Z 0.26 0225  32   4   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 13Z 0.27 0225  31   2   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 14Z 0.26 0224  32   2   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 15Z 0.25 0222  33   2   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 16Z 0.21 0120  37   3   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 17Z 0.19 0119  45   4   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 18Z 0.18 0119  51   5   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 19Z 0.20 0118  53   5   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 20Z 0.20 0118  52   6   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 21Z 0.21 0119  51   7   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 22Z 0.21 0120  48   8   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 23Z 0.22 0221  44   8   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 00Z 0.23 0221  41   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 01Z 0.24 0221  39  10   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 02Z 0.25 0320  36  11   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 03Z 0.25 0319  34  13   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 04Z 0.25 0418  34  14   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 05Z 0.23 0415  34  15   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 06Z 0.20 0413  35  15   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 07Z 0.17 0412  35  14   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 08Z 0.15 0311  34  13   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 09Z 0.15 0311  30  11   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 10Z 0.16 0312  28   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 11Z 0.16 0312  28   7   8 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1