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Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.; Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.

Severe weather and flooding threats continue for portions of the central U.S., with impactful flash flooding possible from southern Kansas to southwestern Missouri. Extremely Critical fire weather conditions will develop across the Great Basin and Southwest on Friday, with dry and windy conditions through the weekend. Dangerous heat will increase across the southern and central U.S. this weekend. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260625_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 06/25 18Z 4.17 2208  78  36  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 19Z 4.01 2209  79  37  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 20Z 4.08 2311  77  43  11 0.02
Thu 06/25 21Z 2.68 2211  74  47  11 0.01
Thu 06/25 22Z 0.81 2211  72  50  11 0.01
Thu 06/25 23Z 0.47 2209  67  59  12 0.00
Fri 06/26 00Z 0.38 2109  66  84  12 0.00
Fri 06/26 01Z 0.33 2009  66  94  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 02Z 0.26 1810  71  98  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 03Z 0.09 1710  83  97  10 0.02
Fri 06/26 04Z 0.08 1714  90  96  10 0.04
Fri 06/26 05Z 0.13 1715  94  95  10 0.07
Fri 06/26 06Z 0.16 1818  96  93  10 0.10
Fri 06/26 07Z 0.10 1719  96  86  10 0.14
Fri 06/26 08Z 0.09 1718  98  86  10 0.08
Fri 06/26 09Z 0.17 1818  97  85  10 0.03
Fri 06/26 10Z 0.23 1920  98  83  10 0.02
Fri 06/26 11Z 0.37 2019  99  85  10 0.04
Fri 06/26 12Z 0.45 2218  97  73  10 0.04
Fri 06/26 13Z 0.50 2317  94  66  11 0.02
Fri 06/26 14Z 0.49 2215  97  60  10 0.01
Fri 06/26 15Z 0.45 2313  99  57  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 16Z 0.45 2411  98  59  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 17Z 0.51 2510  96  63  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 18Z 0.54 2509  95  58  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 19Z 0.52 2507  93  61  11 0.03
Fri 06/26 20Z 0.49 2408  92  66  12 0.14
Fri 06/26 21Z 0.50 2710  91  73  12 0.17
Fri 06/26 22Z 0.46 2813  91  73  12 0.16
Fri 06/26 23Z 0.36 3012  87  64  12 0.05
Sat 06/27 00Z 0.38 3013  89  56  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 01Z 0.39 2913  93  55  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 02Z 0.27 3010  91  49  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 03Z 0.28 2910  91  46  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 04Z 0.24 2909  93  47  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 05Z 0.22 3009  93  46  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 06Z 0.20 3008  92  45  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 07Z 0.19 3008  93  45  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 08Z 0.18 3007  94  45  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 09Z 0.17 3007  95  46  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 10Z 0.13 3006  96  49  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 11Z 0.07 3205  95  48  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 12Z 0.02 3404  94  47  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 13Z 0.04 3203  95  52  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 14Z 0.03 3302  94  54  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 15Z 0.05 2801  95  55  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 16Z 0.05 2701  95  55  11 0.03
Sat 06/27 17Z 0.07 2601  95  58  11 0.04
Sat 06/27 18Z 0.09 2802  95  54  11 0.04
Sat 06/27 19Z 0.07 3001  94  51  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 20Z 0.05 3302  93  48  11 0.03
Sat 06/27 21Z 0.05 3302  93  49  12 0.04
Sat 06/27 22Z 0.06 3402  93  50  12 0.04
Sat 06/27 23Z 0.06 3503  92  49  12 0.03
Sun 06/28 00Z 0.09 0203  92  48  12 0.03
Sun 06/28 01Z 0.09 0103  93  50  11 0.01
Sun 06/28 02Z 0.11 0304  92  51  11 0.01
Sun 06/28 03Z 0.13 0304  93  54  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 04Z 0.11 0205  94  56  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 05Z 0.10 0205  95  60  11 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.57 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1