National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Extreme Heat in the Southwest; Severe Weather in the Northern Plains; Heavy Rain in the East

Extreme heat continues across the Southwest as temperatures may top 120 degrees. The heat may expand across the West and south-central U.S. into the middle of the month. Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards today across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Rainfall could be locally heavy across the Eastern U.S. today. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260803_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 08/03 12Z 0.20 1817  97  93  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 13Z 0.26 1917  99  88  15 0.02
Mon 08/03 14Z 0.36 2018  99  76  15 0.01
Mon 08/03 15Z 0.46 2018  98  72  15 0.01
Mon 08/03 16Z 0.44 1918  98  64  16 0.01
Mon 08/03 17Z 0.51 2019  96  75  16 0.02
Mon 08/03 18Z 0.51 2118  97  93  16 0.21
Mon 08/03 19Z 0.77 2320  94  78  15 0.26
Mon 08/03 20Z 0.93 2420  92  35  14 0.00
Mon 08/03 21Z 1.26 2522  92  53  13 0.01
Mon 08/03 22Z 0.88 2623  97  75  13 0.03
Mon 08/03 23Z 0.77 2928  98  85  12 0.10
Tue 08/04 00Z 0.75 3032  98  95  10 0.11
Tue 08/04 01Z 0.63 3133  94  70  10 0.04
Tue 08/04 02Z 0.71 3134  88  19  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 03Z 0.56 3231  81   8  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 04Z 0.55 3229  81  10  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 05Z 0.66 3126  88   5  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 06Z 0.71 3026  87   4  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 07Z 0.69 3024  82   4  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 08Z 0.65 3022  78   5  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 09Z 0.61 3022  71   3  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 10Z 0.56 3023  63   3  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 11Z 0.52 3022  57   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 12Z 0.49 3021  54   1  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 13Z 0.45 3021  52   1  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 14Z 0.40 3019  50   2  14 0.00
Tue 08/04 15Z 0.36 3016  46   2  14 0.00
Tue 08/04 16Z 0.32 3014  44   1  14 0.00
Tue 08/04 17Z 0.30 2911  46   1  15 0.00
Tue 08/04 18Z 0.30 2809  50   1  15 0.00
Tue 08/04 19Z 0.28 2807  50   2  15 0.00
Tue 08/04 20Z 0.27 2707  51   3  15 0.00
Tue 08/04 21Z 0.24 2606  52   4  16 0.00
Tue 08/04 22Z 0.19 2605  53   5  16 0.00
Tue 08/04 23Z 0.15 2504  52   6  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 00Z 0.12 2204  50   7  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 01Z 0.17 2207  48   9  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 02Z 0.21 2208  43  11  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 03Z 0.19 2209  39  12  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 04Z 0.21 2309  37  12  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 05Z 0.22 2309  36  11  18 0.00
Wed 08/05 06Z 0.21 2409  35   8  18 0.00
Wed 08/05 07Z 0.22 2409  37   4  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 08Z 0.22 2509  41   2  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 09Z 0.22 2509  43   1  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 10Z 0.21 2508  44   2  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 11Z 0.21 2508  46   2  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 12Z 0.22 2408  46   1  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 13Z 0.25 2409  47   1  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 14Z 0.26 2409  46   1  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 15Z 0.29 2409  51   1  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 16Z 0.27 2308  54   2  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 17Z 0.24 2208  50   4  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 18Z 0.27 2210  49  10  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 19Z 0.30 2211  51  15  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 20Z 0.32 2112  53  30  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 21Z 0.32 2112  50  38  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 22Z 0.34 2212  45  41  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 23Z 0.36 2213  45  37  17 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.83 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1