National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Lake effect snow continues today, followed by extreme cold for the weekend, then heavy snow possible early next week.

An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for northern New York and Vermont this evening through Saturday morning. Dangerously cold wind chills of -20F to -40F are expected. In addition, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for southern St Lawrence County today. A lake effect band will produce additional snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches with highest amounts along and south of Route 3. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260123_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 01/23 06Z 1.13 2625  83  36 -15 0.00
Fri 01/23 07Z 2.53 2625  88  27 -16 0.00
Fri 01/23 08Z 3.73 2625  86  27 -16 0.00
Fri 01/23 09Z 1.83 2624  85  33 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 10Z 1.42 2623  86  35 -17 0.01
Fri 01/23 11Z 1.44 2623  88  44 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 12Z 1.25 2624  87  55 -17 0.01
Fri 01/23 13Z 1.26 2624  86  66 -17 0.01
Fri 01/23 14Z 3.93 2620  88  64 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 15Z 4.70 2519  88  67 -17 0.01
Fri 01/23 16Z 7.28 2518  86  62 -17 0.01
Fri 01/23 17Z 10.44 2620  81  60 -17 0.01
Fri 01/23 18Z 10.45 2621  79  57 -18 0.01
Fri 01/23 19Z 10.26 2622  80  55 -18 0.01
Fri 01/23 20Z 12.22 2623  75  59 -18 0.01
Fri 01/23 21Z 10.85 2724  78  61 -19 0.01
Fri 01/23 22Z 5.00 2825  82  71 -20 0.01
Fri 01/23 23Z 5.49 2926  76  69 -21 0.01
Sat 01/24 00Z 8.86 2828  67  45 -22 0.00
Sat 01/24 01Z 8.31 2830  73  55 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 02Z 14.03 2833  71  28 -25 0.00
Sat 01/24 03Z 10.45 2930  74  28 -26 0.00
Sat 01/24 04Z 2.79 3028  72  25 -26 0.00
Sat 01/24 05Z 4.35 3029  75  20 -27 0.00
Sat 01/24 06Z 4.26 3028  71  22 -28 0.00
Sat 01/24 07Z 1.54 3029  60  19 -29 0.00
Sat 01/24 08Z 0.79 3028  59  17 -28 0.00
Sat 01/24 09Z 0.51 3127  59  19 -28 0.00
Sat 01/24 10Z 0.43 3127  62  19 -27 0.00
Sat 01/24 11Z 0.37 3127  61  19 -26 0.00
Sat 01/24 12Z 0.33 3128  58  19 -25 0.00
Sat 01/24 13Z 0.32 3128  55  19 -25 0.00
Sat 01/24 14Z 0.30 3127  51  19 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 15Z 0.31 3126  48  19 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 16Z 0.32 3125  46  21 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 17Z 0.33 3124  47  21 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 18Z 0.34 3123  49  19 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 19Z 0.35 3022  53  16 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 20Z 0.37 3021  56  13 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 21Z 0.40 3020  57  13 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 22Z 0.40 3020  55  12 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 23Z 0.39 3020  53  11 -23 0.00
Sun 01/25 00Z 0.33 3020  50  11 -22 0.00
Sun 01/25 01Z 0.27 3120  48  13 -21 0.00
Sun 01/25 02Z 0.25 3120  46  14 -21 0.00
Sun 01/25 03Z 0.23 3120  42  14 -20 0.00
Sun 01/25 04Z 0.20 3119  37  13 -20 0.00
Sun 01/25 05Z 0.18 3118  33  10 -19 0.00
Sun 01/25 06Z 0.18 3117  31   9 -19 0.00
Sun 01/25 07Z 0.16 3116  29   9 -18 0.00
Sun 01/25 08Z 0.16 3115  29   9 -18 0.00
Sun 01/25 09Z 0.16 3114  28   9 -18 0.00
Sun 01/25 10Z 0.13 3111  26  10 -17 0.00
Sun 01/25 11Z 0.15 3011  25  12 -17 0.00
Sun 01/25 12Z 0.13 2908  25  15 -17 0.00
Sun 01/25 13Z 0.09 2906  23  19 -16 0.00
Sun 01/25 14Z 0.07 2905  22  27 -16 0.00
Sun 01/25 15Z 0.05 2502  22  45 -15 0.00
Sun 01/25 16Z 0.03 2002  24  65 -15 0.00
Sun 01/25 17Z 0.04 1904  27  81 -15 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.12 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1