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Dangerous Heat Builds and Expands; Critical Fire Weather for the Southwest; Severe Thunderstorms for Plains and Midwest

Dangerous to record breaking heat will build across the center of the nation and slowly build eastward this week. Wildfire conditions remain critical for the Southwest and portions of the Great Basin through Monday. For the northern Plains and upper Midwest, severe thunderstorms with the potential for large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary hazards. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260629_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 06/29 00Z 0.08 3410  60  43  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 01Z 0.07 3513  57  39  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 02Z 0.23 0115  52  37  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 03Z 0.38 0215  52  38  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 04Z 0.45 0314  55  45  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 05Z 0.40 0411  58  53  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 06Z 0.31 0309  57  61  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 07Z 0.22 0308  55  60  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 08Z 0.13 0106  55  57  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 09Z 0.12 0107  55  52  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 10Z 0.16 0108  57  44  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 11Z 0.13 0008  59  37  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 12Z 0.10 0008  60  25  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 13Z 0.10 0008  62  16  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 14Z 0.14 3506  65  13  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 15Z 0.25 3404  67  16  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 16Z 0.26 3304  65  25  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 17Z 0.38 3205  64  39  13 0.02
Mon 06/29 18Z 0.61 3205  61  33  14 0.01
Mon 06/29 19Z 0.64 3204  57  22  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 20Z 0.84 3205  54  17  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 21Z 0.56 3105  53  27  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 22Z 0.30 3104  52  29  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 23Z 0.26 3104  52  26  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 00Z 0.30 3005  54  17  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 01Z 0.38 2904  56  15  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 02Z 0.50 2705  58  16  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 03Z 0.49 2405  59  13  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 04Z 0.66 2307  60  12  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 05Z 0.74 2409  61  14  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 06Z 0.83 2411  61  18  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 07Z 0.86 2413  61  23  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 08Z 0.79 2415  59  27  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 09Z 0.82 2416  59  44  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 10Z 0.79 2416  65  51  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 11Z 0.77 2517  72  50  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 12Z 0.78 2519  79  46  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 13Z 0.72 2419  85  38  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 14Z 0.78 2519  87  44  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 15Z 0.71 2516  90  90  14 0.02
Tue 06/30 16Z 0.39 2312  82  93  14 0.05
Tue 06/30 17Z 0.40 2313  87  97  14 0.02
Tue 06/30 18Z 0.45 2314  95  87  15 0.03
Tue 06/30 19Z 0.49 2217  91  72  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 20Z 0.61 2218  89  78  16 0.00
Tue 06/30 21Z 0.68 2220  94  81  16 0.00
Tue 06/30 22Z 0.70 2222  94  83  16 0.00
Tue 06/30 23Z 0.79 2325  94  94  16 0.00
Wed 07/01 00Z 0.74 2326  94  88  17 0.06
Wed 07/01 01Z 0.83 2328  94  78  17 0.04
Wed 07/01 02Z 0.80 2330  97  80  18 0.05
Wed 07/01 03Z 0.91 2432  97  70  18 0.10
Wed 07/01 04Z 0.85 2630  97  42  18 0.10
Wed 07/01 05Z 0.74 2727  96  35  18 0.05
Wed 07/01 06Z 0.64 2823  93  52  18 0.08
Wed 07/01 07Z 0.67 2725  85  68  18 0.25
Wed 07/01 08Z 0.54 2822  83  42  19 0.09
Wed 07/01 09Z 0.59 2724  90  26  19 0.01
Wed 07/01 10Z 0.61 2825  94  11  18 0.01
Wed 07/01 11Z 0.58 2925  95   5  18 0.02

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.01 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1