
A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will spread northward late Thursday through Friday Morning, mainly in southern Vermont and portions of northern New York. Precipitation will likely start as snow for most before transiting to a wintry mix Thursday night. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to one inch and ice accumulations up to two tenths of an inch are expected. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260304_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 03/04 18Z 0.23 2809 75 1 0 0.00
Wed 03/04 19Z 0.28 2611 72 2 0 0.00
Wed 03/04 21Z 0.49 2617 61 7 0 0.00
Wed 03/04 22Z 0.50 2717 57 12 1 0.00
Wed 03/04 23Z 0.47 2716 56 17 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 00Z 0.44 2716 52 22 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 01Z 0.40 2715 48 25 2 0.00
Thu 03/05 02Z 0.39 2715 44 27 2 0.00
Thu 03/05 03Z 0.41 2716 44 28 2 0.00
Thu 03/05 05Z 0.37 2815 47 27 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 07Z 0.27 2812 52 16 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 08Z 0.24 2811 56 15 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 09Z 0.21 2809 60 15 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 10Z 0.18 2809 62 12 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 11Z 0.11 2906 64 11 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 12Z 0.05 3104 67 11 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 13Z 0.02 3302 69 11 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 14Z 0.03 1000 70 14 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 15Z 0.06 1104 71 15 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 16Z 0.08 1206 75 17 1 0.00
Thu 03/05 17Z 0.09 1308 77 18 0 0.00
Thu 03/05 18Z 0.10 1410 81 20 0 0.00
Thu 03/05 19Z 0.09 1412 84 22 0 0.00
Thu 03/05 20Z 0.09 1412 81 23 0 0.00
Thu 03/05 21Z 0.08 1412 76 24 0 0.00
Thu 03/05 22Z 0.08 1412 71 24 1 0.01
Thu 03/05 23Z 0.09 1412 70 25 1 0.01
Fri 03/06 00Z 0.11 1414 69 32 1 0.01
Fri 03/06 02Z 0.11 1417 75 53 1 0.01
Fri 03/06 03Z 0.12 1418 80 61 0 0.01
Fri 03/06 04Z 0.11 1417 85 69 0 0.01
Fri 03/06 05Z 0.11 1417 90 77 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 06Z 0.12 1419 93 88 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 07Z 0.10 1519 95 93 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 08Z 0.09 1518 96 97 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 09Z 0.08 1518 96 99 0 0.02
Fri 03/06 10Z 0.09 1518 95 97 0 0.03
Fri 03/06 11Z 0.10 1519 94 91 0 0.03
Fri 03/06 12Z 0.09 1519 95 85 0 0.03
Fri 03/06 13Z 0.10 1520 94 73 0 0.03
Fri 03/06 14Z 0.08 1520 94 66 0 0.02
Fri 03/06 15Z 0.08 1520 94 53 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 16Z 0.07 1519 94 49 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 18Z 0.03 1619 94 51 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 19Z 0.03 1718 95 58 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 20Z 0.03 1718 95 62 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 21Z 0.05 1721 94 55 0 0.00
Fri 03/06 22Z 0.07 1722 95 45 1 0.00
Fri 03/06 23Z 0.10 1823 96 40 1 0.00
Sat 03/07 00Z 0.13 1824 96 50 2 0.00
Sat 03/07 01Z 0.14 1825 97 39 2 0.00
Sat 03/07 02Z 0.16 1827 97 47 3 0.00
Sat 03/07 03Z 0.18 1929 97 39 3 0.00
Sat 03/07 04Z 0.19 1930 97 16 3 0.00
Sat 03/07 05Z 0.23 1930 97 29 3 0.01
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.23 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1