National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold Expected This Weekend

An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for all of northern New York and Vermont for Saturday into Sunday afternoon. Wind chills of 20 to 40 below zero are possible, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Prepare now for the extreme cold, especially if you plan to be outdoors. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260206_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 02/06 00Z 0.08 3105  58  21 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 01Z 0.05 3205  59  22 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 02Z 0.05 3204  63  22 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 03Z 0.02 3302  66  20 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 04Z 0.02 0101  64  18 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 05Z 0.03 0701  59  17 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 06Z 0.03 1302  54  15 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 07Z 0.02 1605  50  13 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 08Z 0.02 1608  53   9 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 09Z 0.02 1709  56   5 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 10Z 0.05 1809  58   4 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 11Z 0.05 1810  61  13 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 12Z 0.05 1811  64  41 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 13Z 0.07 1812  68  70 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 14Z 0.12 1914  72  84 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 15Z 0.14 1913  75  84 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 16Z 0.16 1911  76  86 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 17Z 0.17 1910  76  87 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 18Z 0.17 1908  77  86 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 19Z 0.25 1907  81  88 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 20Z 0.12 1807  84  91 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 21Z 0.07 1707  87  89 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 22Z 0.09 1808  87  85 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 23Z 0.11 1809  88  85 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 00Z 0.11 1810  89  88 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 01Z 0.14 1911  93  90 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 02Z 0.18 1912  94  87 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 03Z 0.21 1913  93  87 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 04Z 0.21 1913  92  87 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 05Z 0.20 1913  92  86 -11 0.02
Sat 02/07 06Z 0.19 1913  92  85 -11 0.02
Sat 02/07 07Z 0.17 1912  92  85 -11 0.02
Sat 02/07 08Z 0.17 1911  92  84 -11 0.02
Sat 02/07 09Z 0.17 2009  92  84 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 10Z 0.15 2006  92  84 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 11Z 0.14 2304  92  84 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 12Z 0.10 3204  92  83 -12 0.02
Sat 02/07 13Z 0.06 3408  90  82 -13 0.02
Sat 02/07 14Z 0.06 3512  88  82 -13 0.02
Sat 02/07 15Z 0.03 3414  87  82 -14 0.01
Sat 02/07 16Z 0.04 3415  86  82 -14 0.01
Sat 02/07 17Z 0.05 3415  84  83 -15 0.01
Sat 02/07 18Z 0.06 3317  84  83 -16 0.01
Sat 02/07 19Z 0.08 3319  83  82 -17 0.01
Sat 02/07 20Z 0.10 3322  83  81 -17 0.01
Sat 02/07 21Z 0.10 3323  85  80 -18 0.00
Sat 02/07 22Z 0.09 3325  85  77 -18 0.00
Sat 02/07 23Z 0.09 3327  85  74 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 00Z 0.09 3328  84  72 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 01Z 0.10 3329  84  72 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 02Z 0.11 3328  83  71 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 03Z 0.12 3327  82  73 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 04Z 0.12 3326  81  73 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 05Z 0.11 3326  81  73 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 06Z 0.12 3326  80  68 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 07Z 0.13 3326  79  62 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 08Z 0.14 3327  78  58 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 09Z 0.16 3229  76  54 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 10Z 0.16 3231  72  49 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 11Z 0.15 3331  69  33 -21 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.25 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1