National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Strong Winds Expected Tonight into Sunday Morning

A Wind Advisory is in effect for most of northern New York and northwestern Vermont from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM Sunday. South to southeast wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected, with locally higher gusts possible. Strong winds may break limbs or down trees, resulting in isolated power outages. Travel may be difficult for high profile vehicles. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260404_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 04/04 12Z 0.05 3513  79  15   4 0.00
Sat 04/04 13Z 0.09 0210  71  13   5 0.00
Sat 04/04 14Z 0.13 0409  66  11   5 0.00
Sat 04/04 15Z 0.14 0708  63  15   6 0.00
Sat 04/04 16Z 0.13 1108  65  25   5 0.00
Sat 04/04 17Z 0.14 1311  73  43   4 0.00
Sat 04/04 18Z 0.15 1414  81  54   3 0.00
Sat 04/04 19Z 0.21 1417  85  58   3 0.00
Sat 04/04 20Z 0.21 1520  90  71   2 0.00
Sat 04/04 21Z 0.19 1524  88  86   3 0.01
Sat 04/04 22Z 0.15 1525  80  95   5 0.00
Sat 04/04 23Z 0.12 1528  75  97   5 0.00
Sun 04/05 00Z 0.09 1629  85  89   5 0.02
Sun 04/05 01Z 0.05 1630  91  91   6 0.01
Sun 04/05 02Z 0.04 1731  94  82   7 0.01
Sun 04/05 03Z 0.04 1733  96  82   7 0.01
Sun 04/05 04Z 0.05 1736  97  88   8 0.01
Sun 04/05 05Z 0.05 1740  97  90   8 0.02
Sun 04/05 06Z 0.07 1742  97  83   8 0.03
Sun 04/05 07Z 0.10 1742  97  85   9 0.02
Sun 04/05 08Z 0.13 1840  97  85   9 0.03
Sun 04/05 09Z 0.19 1839  98  74   9 0.03
Sun 04/05 10Z 0.25 1939  98  64  10 0.04
Sun 04/05 11Z 0.36 2038  98  69   8 0.04
Sun 04/05 12Z 0.46 2233  98  92   7 0.12
Sun 04/05 13Z 0.48 2329  98  98   7 0.08
Sun 04/05 14Z 0.50 2328  97  91   7 0.07
Sun 04/05 15Z 0.57 2427  96  73   5 0.03
Sun 04/05 16Z 0.64 2526  96  70   3 0.02
Sun 04/05 17Z 0.74 2525  95  38   2 0.01
Sun 04/05 18Z 0.82 2524  93  22   0 0.01
Sun 04/05 19Z 1.09 2524  95  19   0 0.01
Sun 04/05 20Z 1.61 2622  94  23  -1 0.01
Sun 04/05 21Z 2.56 2622  91  20  -2 0.01
Sun 04/05 22Z 2.43 2624  90  21  -2 0.00
Sun 04/05 23Z 2.37 2627  92  19  -3 0.00
Mon 04/06 00Z 1.97 2629  93  20  -5 0.00
Mon 04/06 01Z 1.87 2730  91  24  -5 0.00
Mon 04/06 02Z 1.88 2729  92  28  -6 0.00
Mon 04/06 03Z 1.61 2730  94  36  -7 0.00
Mon 04/06 04Z 1.58 2731  95  38  -7 0.00
Mon 04/06 05Z 1.65 2732  96  46  -8 0.01
Mon 04/06 06Z 1.50 2832  95  55  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 07Z 1.30 2832  96  59  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 08Z 1.28 2831  96  50  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 09Z 1.48 2831  96  42  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 10Z 1.48 2930  97  39  -9 0.00
Mon 04/06 11Z 1.33 2928  96  43  -9 0.00
Mon 04/06 12Z 1.42 2926  97  51  -9 0.00
Mon 04/06 13Z 1.69 2823  97  57  -9 0.00
Mon 04/06 14Z 1.89 2822  96  68  -9 0.00
Mon 04/06 15Z 4.59 2821  94  72  -9 0.00
Mon 04/06 16Z 6.77 2821  91  73  -9 0.00
Mon 04/06 17Z 8.88 2720  87  73  -9 0.00
Mon 04/06 18Z 11.26 2720  84  71  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 19Z 8.96 2719  83  76  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 20Z 6.45 2719  86  79  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 21Z 5.87 2719  85  80  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 22Z 3.53 2819  84  79  -8 0.00
Mon 04/06 23Z 1.64 2818  89  80  -8 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.66 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1