
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of northern Vermont from 3PM today through 7AM tomorrow. Plan on slippery road conditions. Snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour are likely this evening, most likely between 6PM and 9PM today. This evening’s commute and possibly the Tuesday morning commute will be impacted by hazardous road conditions so be sure to use extra caution. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20251110_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 11/10 18Z 0.10 0903 100 85 2 0.00
Mon 11/10 19Z 0.09 0504 99 91 2 0.04
Mon 11/10 20Z 0.07 0206 99 98 2 0.07
Mon 11/10 21Z 0.04 3508 98 96 1 0.07
Mon 11/10 22Z 0.09 3209 98 96 0 0.09
Mon 11/10 23Z 0.19 3013 97 97 0 0.12
Tue 11/11 00Z 0.24 3118 94 91 -1 0.06
Tue 11/11 01Z 0.23 3118 91 73 -1 0.01
Tue 11/11 02Z 0.28 3018 94 54 -3 0.01
Tue 11/11 03Z 0.40 2921 95 32 -4 0.01
Tue 11/11 04Z 0.42 2920 96 19 -5 0.01
Tue 11/11 05Z 0.38 2916 97 10 -5 0.01
Tue 11/11 06Z 0.39 2815 96 7 -6 0.01
Tue 11/11 07Z 0.42 2816 95 5 -6 0.01
Tue 11/11 08Z 0.46 2716 94 6 -7 0.01
Tue 11/11 09Z 0.55 2717 95 9 -9 0.01
Tue 11/11 10Z 0.58 2717 95 14 -9 0.01
Tue 11/11 11Z 0.69 2617 96 20 -10 0.01
Tue 11/11 12Z 0.85 2618 96 26 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 13Z 1.04 2717 96 38 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 14Z 1.64 2818 96 50 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 15Z 2.50 2717 95 70 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 16Z 3.52 2716 95 88 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 17Z 3.17 2616 94 91 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 18Z 4.18 2618 94 87 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 19Z 3.72 2621 95 81 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 20Z 2.51 2723 94 75 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 21Z 1.43 2725 92 76 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 22Z 1.63 2728 91 75 -10 0.01
Tue 11/11 23Z 1.53 2831 91 71 -10 0.01
Wed 11/12 00Z 1.47 2831 91 61 -10 0.00
Wed 11/12 01Z 1.19 2831 84 66 -10 0.00
Wed 11/12 02Z 1.29 2830 86 70 -10 0.00
Wed 11/12 03Z 1.32 2830 89 36 -10 0.00
Wed 11/12 04Z 1.10 2828 90 20 -9 0.00
Wed 11/12 05Z 0.95 2828 89 20 -9 0.00
Wed 11/12 06Z 0.82 2828 86 25 -8 0.00
Wed 11/12 07Z 0.68 2725 80 26 -7 0.00
Wed 11/12 08Z 0.68 2724 80 26 -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 09Z 0.63 2622 84 28 -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 10Z 0.55 2619 88 64 -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 11Z 0.49 2518 87 85 -5 0.00
Wed 11/12 12Z 0.48 2417 82 88 -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 13Z 0.45 2315 91 90 -6 0.01
Wed 11/12 14Z 0.41 2215 94 91 -6 0.01
Wed 11/12 15Z 0.49 2214 94 91 -7 0.01
Wed 11/12 16Z 0.58 2312 94 89 -7 0.01
Wed 11/12 17Z 0.68 2311 93 86 -7 0.00
Wed 11/12 18Z 0.57 2311 91 89 -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 19Z 0.45 2311 89 93 -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 20Z 0.51 2413 93 92 -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 21Z 0.59 2415 95 91 -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 22Z 0.58 2516 95 90 -5 0.00
Wed 11/12 23Z 0.57 2617 94 88 -5 0.01
Thu 11/13 00Z 0.56 2517 95 86 -5 0.01
Thu 11/13 01Z 0.61 2618 96 84 -5 0.02
Thu 11/13 02Z 0.61 2718 96 82 -4 0.01
Thu 11/13 03Z 0.54 2717 96 82 -4 0.01
Thu 11/13 04Z 0.45 2714 96 86 -4 0.01
Thu 11/13 05Z 0.43 2613 97 91 -4 0.02
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.86 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1