
A Winter Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from until 7 PM Thursday for most of northern New York. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 8 inches are expected. Precipitation will initially start as rain before changing over to snow with sharply falling temperatures. Travel could be very difficult, including the Thursday commutes. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260115_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 01/15 12Z 0.03 1710 98 90 -1 0.00
Thu 01/15 13Z 0.08 1810 98 89 -1 0.01
Thu 01/15 14Z 0.22 2012 98 89 -2 0.01
Thu 01/15 15Z 0.41 2215 98 87 -2 0.01
Thu 01/15 18Z 0.59 2319 96 41 -4 0.02
Thu 01/15 19Z 0.54 2321 92 12 -5 0.02
Thu 01/15 20Z 0.69 2421 90 4 -8 0.01
Thu 01/15 21Z 0.73 2420 87 7 -10 0.01
Thu 01/15 22Z 1.43 2620 87 6 -12 0.01
Thu 01/15 23Z 2.53 2619 84 19 -13 0.01
Fri 01/16 00Z 2.89 2618 81 33 -14 0.01
Fri 01/16 02Z 3.73 2616 86 44 -15 0.00
Fri 01/16 03Z 3.05 2616 86 44 -16 0.00
Fri 01/16 04Z 2.06 2516 81 56 -16 0.00
Fri 01/16 05Z 2.49 2615 84 66 -17 0.00
Fri 01/16 06Z 2.53 2718 85 70 -18 0.00
Fri 01/16 07Z 3.15 2821 86 58 -19 0.00
Fri 01/16 08Z 4.27 2821 84 58 -20 0.00
Fri 01/16 09Z 1.48 2822 84 75 -20 0.01
Fri 01/16 10Z 1.02 2922 87 72 -19 0.01
Fri 01/16 11Z 0.76 2923 86 62 -19 0.00
Fri 01/16 12Z 0.62 2924 86 67 -18 0.00
Fri 01/16 13Z 0.55 2924 88 55 -17 0.00
Fri 01/16 14Z 0.50 2924 89 24 -16 0.00
Fri 01/16 15Z 0.45 2923 87 7 -15 0.00
Fri 01/16 16Z 0.47 2823 80 9 -14 0.00
Fri 01/16 17Z 0.43 2822 62 7 -13 0.00
Fri 01/16 18Z 0.40 2821 42 11 -12 0.00
Fri 01/16 19Z 0.41 2819 39 14 -11 0.00
Fri 01/16 20Z 0.38 2818 37 12 -11 0.00
Fri 01/16 21Z 0.35 2716 35 16 -10 0.00
Fri 01/16 22Z 0.39 2616 37 32 -10 0.00
Fri 01/16 23Z 0.34 2515 35 72 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 00Z 0.26 2313 31 93 -8 0.00
Sat 01/17 01Z 0.21 2113 28 91 -8 0.00
Sat 01/17 02Z 0.26 2116 39 95 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 03Z 0.27 2018 61 94 -8 0.00
Sat 01/17 04Z 0.34 2022 48 96 -8 0.00
Sat 01/17 05Z 0.59 2125 66 86 -11 0.00
Sat 01/17 06Z 0.52 2126 83 87 -10 0.00
Sat 01/17 07Z 0.52 2224 83 86 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 08Z 0.52 2322 75 60 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 09Z 0.50 2321 74 52 -9 0.01
Sat 01/17 10Z 0.49 2319 75 45 -9 0.01
Sat 01/17 11Z 0.48 2219 78 49 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 12Z 0.50 2318 79 65 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 13Z 0.54 2319 82 79 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 14Z 0.52 2319 90 83 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 15Z 0.50 2318 91 84 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 16Z 0.48 2316 90 75 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 17Z 0.55 2316 92 55 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 18Z 0.59 2317 92 56 -9 0.01
Sat 01/17 19Z 0.60 2316 90 57 -9 0.00
Sat 01/17 21Z 0.60 2215 89 71 -8 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.17 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1