National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Lake Effect Snow continues through friday, followed by extreme cold for the weekend.

An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for northern New York and Vermont from Friday evening through Saturday morning. Dangerously cold wind chills of -20F to -40F are expected. In addition, a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for southern St Lawrence County through Friday. A lake effect band will produce 3 to 9 inches of snow in the Advisory area, mainly along and south of Route 3. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260122_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 01/22 18Z 2.22 2421  91  79  -9 0.00
Thu 01/22 19Z 4.57 2527  94  71  -9 0.00
Thu 01/22 20Z 15.42 2531  86  62 -10 0.00
Thu 01/22 21Z 13.48 2634  74  66 -11 0.01
Thu 01/22 22Z 4.33 2729  73  46 -12 0.00
Thu 01/22 23Z 3.45 2627  76  55 -13 0.00
Fri 01/23 00Z 2.03 2623  79  70 -13 0.00
Fri 01/23 01Z 1.71 2622  88  71 -13 0.01
Fri 01/23 02Z 1.26 2623  89  44 -13 0.01
Fri 01/23 03Z 1.74 2525  92  37 -14 0.01
Fri 01/23 04Z 1.97 2527  91  26 -14 0.01
Fri 01/23 05Z 2.51 2627  88  24 -15 0.01
Fri 01/23 06Z 3.05 2726  86  20 -16 0.00
Fri 01/23 07Z 2.00 2725  82  21 -17 0.01
Fri 01/23 08Z 1.51 2624  84  22 -18 0.01
Fri 01/23 09Z 1.68 2624  87  19 -18 0.01
Fri 01/23 10Z 1.50 2622  87  22 -18 0.01
Fri 01/23 11Z 1.36 2621  87  26 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 12Z 1.20 2522  86  24 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 13Z 1.14 2524  89  40 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 14Z 1.47 2426  92  33 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 15Z 6.38 2525  93  46 -18 0.01
Fri 01/23 16Z 12.69 2625  85  55 -19 0.01
Fri 01/23 17Z 13.09 2724  75  58 -19 0.01
Fri 01/23 18Z 12.05 2721  73  59 -19 0.01
Fri 01/23 19Z 10.34 2721  73  64 -19 0.01
Fri 01/23 20Z 10.23 2721  74  69 -20 0.01
Fri 01/23 21Z 9.56 2723  74  68 -20 0.01
Fri 01/23 22Z 6.80 2823  76  71 -21 0.01
Fri 01/23 23Z 4.37 2823  76  68 -21 0.01
Sat 01/24 00Z 5.88 2827  70  59 -22 0.01
Sat 01/24 01Z 8.87 2834  68  54 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 02Z 9.52 2834  59  35 -25 0.00
Sat 01/24 03Z 7.72 2832  56  31 -26 0.00
Sat 01/24 04Z 3.99 2930  71  29 -26 0.00
Sat 01/24 05Z 2.00 3028  75  28 -27 0.00
Sat 01/24 06Z 2.45 3029  74  26 -27 0.00
Sat 01/24 07Z 1.22 3029  67  25 -28 0.00
Sat 01/24 08Z 0.94 3030  65  28 -28 0.00
Sat 01/24 09Z 0.56 3130  64  28 -27 0.00
Sat 01/24 10Z 0.42 3130  65  27 -26 0.00
Sat 01/24 11Z 0.36 3130  62  24 -25 0.00
Sat 01/24 12Z 0.32 3130  60  20 -25 0.00
Sat 01/24 13Z 0.30 3130  57  17 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 14Z 0.28 3128  53  15 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 15Z 0.28 3126  51  13 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 16Z 0.29 3124  50  12 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 17Z 0.31 3123  50  14 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 18Z 0.34 3021  51  16 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 19Z 0.39 3021  55  14 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 20Z 0.45 2920  59  10 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 21Z 0.46 2919  58  11 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 22Z 0.44 3020  54  11 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 23Z 0.37 3021  50   9 -22 0.00
Sun 01/25 00Z 0.29 3121  47   9 -21 0.00
Sun 01/25 01Z 0.23 3121  44   9 -20 0.00
Sun 01/25 02Z 0.21 3120  42   9 -20 0.00
Sun 01/25 04Z 0.20 3119  35  10 -19 0.00
Sun 01/25 05Z 0.18 3118  32  10 -18 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.20 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1