National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Extreme cold for the weekend, then heavy snow Sunday through Monday.

An Extreme Cold Warning is in effect for northern New York and Vermont this morning and remaining cold into the day. Dangerously cold wind chills of -20F to -40F are expected. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect across Vermont and northern New York starting 1 PM Sunday through 1 AM Tuesday. Total snow accumulations between 8 and 17 inches will create very hazardous conditions for travel. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260123_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 01/23 18Z 7.20 2618  82  57 -17 0.00
Fri 01/23 19Z 12.08 2621  80  65 -18 0.00
Fri 01/23 20Z 10.20 2823  75  76 -18 0.01
Fri 01/23 21Z 7.99 2923  75  78 -19 0.02
Fri 01/23 22Z 5.58 2924  77  79 -20 0.01
Fri 01/23 23Z 8.38 2924  71  77 -21 0.00
Sat 01/24 00Z 4.27 2825  72  68 -22 0.00
Sat 01/24 01Z 8.95 2931  69  62 -23 0.01
Sat 01/24 02Z 3.77 2832  57  33 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 03Z 12.41 2831  66  31 -25 0.00
Sat 01/24 04Z 8.94 2930  73  29 -26 0.00
Sat 01/24 05Z 5.74 3029  79  23 -27 0.00
Sat 01/24 06Z 3.98 3029  72  19 -28 0.00
Sat 01/24 07Z 0.84 3129  57  20 -29 0.00
Sat 01/24 08Z 0.58 3129  56  18 -28 0.00
Sat 01/24 09Z 0.46 3128  58  18 -27 0.00
Sat 01/24 10Z 0.40 3128  59  16 -27 0.00
Sat 01/24 11Z 0.36 3128  58  16 -26 0.00
Sat 01/24 12Z 0.33 3128  55  15 -25 0.00
Sat 01/24 13Z 0.31 3127  52  15 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 14Z 0.29 3126  50  16 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 15Z 0.29 3124  47  15 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 16Z 0.30 3123  43  16 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 17Z 0.32 3123  43  16 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 18Z 0.33 3123  46  16 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 19Z 0.35 3021  51  14 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 21Z 0.43 2919  56  10 -24 0.00
Sat 01/24 22Z 0.42 2920  53  10 -23 0.00
Sat 01/24 23Z 0.38 3021  50  10 -22 0.00
Sun 01/25 00Z 0.35 3021  48  11 -21 0.00
Sun 01/25 01Z 0.31 3022  45  10 -21 0.00
Sun 01/25 02Z 0.28 3021  43  11 -20 0.00
Sun 01/25 03Z 0.24 3120  39   8 -20 0.00
Sun 01/25 04Z 0.21 3118  36   7 -19 0.00
Sun 01/25 05Z 0.19 3117  33   6 -18 0.00
Sun 01/25 06Z 0.17 3115  30   6 -18 0.00
Sun 01/25 07Z 0.15 3114  30   6 -18 0.00
Sun 01/25 08Z 0.14 3112  31   9 -18 0.00
Sun 01/25 09Z 0.13 3010  32  11 -18 0.00
Sun 01/25 10Z 0.13 3009  31  17 -17 0.00
Sun 01/25 11Z 0.11 2907  29  28 -17 0.00
Sun 01/25 12Z 0.10 2806  27  41 -16 0.00
Sun 01/25 13Z 0.08 2604  25  57 -16 0.00
Sun 01/25 14Z 0.04 2102  24  75 -15 0.00
Sun 01/25 15Z 0.03 1904  26  86 -15 0.00
Sun 01/25 16Z 0.02 1706  30  88 -16 0.00
Sun 01/25 17Z 0.02 1707  45  87 -17 0.00
Sun 01/25 18Z 0.03 1608  73  88 -17 0.00
Sun 01/25 19Z 0.07 1409  84  88 -15 0.00
Sun 01/25 20Z 0.10 1411  85  87 -15 0.01
Sun 01/25 21Z 0.15 1416  85  89 -15 0.02
Sun 01/25 22Z 0.19 1319  85  91 -14 0.03
Sun 01/25 23Z 0.18 1422  85  94 -14 0.03
Mon 01/26 00Z 0.19 1425  85  94 -14 0.04
Mon 01/26 01Z 0.31 1329  86  95 -14 0.03
Mon 01/26 02Z 0.39 1332  86  94 -14 0.03
Mon 01/26 03Z 0.42 1233  86  92 -13 0.04
Mon 01/26 04Z 0.38 1231  86  92 -11 0.04
Mon 01/26 05Z 0.40 1231  86  92 -11 0.04

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.36 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1