National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Winter Storm Advisory in Rutland and Windsor County 1 AM through 7 PM Monday

A coastal low will bring strong winds and snow to southern Vermont tonight into Monday. For Rutland and Windsor Counties, snowfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches are expected, along with wind gusts to 35 mph, which could result in poor visibility and blowing snow. Very difficult travel is expected across southern Vermont due to the combination of wind and snow, especially between mountain passes. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260222_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 02/22 06Z 0.11 1510  95  45  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 07Z 0.13 1512  93  49  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 08Z 0.10 1513  90  54  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 09Z 0.08 1513  87  62  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 10Z 0.07 1513  86  68  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 11Z 0.06 1513  86  79  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 12Z 0.06 1513  86  89  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 13Z 0.09 1512  86  91  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 14Z 0.12 1412  85  94  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 15Z 0.15 1412  84  94  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 16Z 0.21 1313  83  91  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 17Z 0.25 1313  83  93  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 18Z 0.29 1314  79  95  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 19Z 0.33 1314  71  90  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 20Z 0.34 1214  69  89  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 21Z 0.40 1114  71  86  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 22Z 0.46 1016  71  86  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 23Z 0.56 1019  72  87  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 00Z 0.61 1022  72  87  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 01Z 0.61 0922  71  81  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 02Z 0.64 1023  74  73  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 03Z 0.70 0925  77  83  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 04Z 0.78 0826  79  75  -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 05Z 0.81 0826  81  77  -9 0.00
Mon 02/23 06Z 0.82 0825  82  85  -9 0.01
Mon 02/23 07Z 0.84 0726  87  85  -9 0.03
Mon 02/23 08Z 0.80 0627  86  85  -9 0.05
Mon 02/23 09Z 0.88 0630  88  86 -10 0.05
Mon 02/23 10Z 0.92 0531  89  85 -10 0.05
Mon 02/23 11Z 0.91 0534  90  86 -10 0.03
Mon 02/23 12Z 0.89 0434  74  85 -10 0.02
Mon 02/23 13Z 0.98 0435  72  85 -11 0.01
Mon 02/23 14Z 0.82 0433  83  86 -11 0.01
Mon 02/23 15Z 0.75 0332  90  85 -11 0.07
Mon 02/23 16Z 0.72 0332  90  85 -11 0.09
Mon 02/23 17Z 0.59 0232  91  85 -11 0.07
Mon 02/23 18Z 0.48 0133  91  86 -11 0.05
Mon 02/23 19Z 0.37 0134  91  86 -11 0.04
Mon 02/23 20Z 0.28 0035  92  85 -10 0.03
Mon 02/23 21Z 0.18 0035  92  85 -10 0.02
Mon 02/23 22Z 0.13 3535  91  86 -10 0.02
Mon 02/23 23Z 0.10 3536  92  85 -11 0.02
Tue 02/24 00Z 0.09 3536  92  86 -12 0.01
Tue 02/24 01Z 0.13 3537  91  86 -12 0.01
Tue 02/24 02Z 0.11 3536  90  85 -13 0.01
Tue 02/24 03Z 0.09 3534  90  85 -13 0.01
Tue 02/24 04Z 0.13 3432  92  81 -13 0.00
Tue 02/24 05Z 0.25 3330  91  76 -13 0.00
Tue 02/24 06Z 0.25 3330  90  75 -14 0.01
Tue 02/24 07Z 0.20 3330  91  73 -14 0.01
Tue 02/24 08Z 0.41 3329  96  80 -15 0.01
Tue 02/24 09Z 0.44 3227  95  82 -15 0.01
Tue 02/24 10Z 0.28 3226  90  74 -15 0.01
Tue 02/24 11Z 0.27 3224  90  71 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 12Z 0.28 3124  89  76 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 13Z 0.27 3124  88  54 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 14Z 0.27 3123  86  34 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 15Z 0.26 3122  85  34 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 16Z 0.31 3121  86  52 -15 0.00
Tue 02/24 17Z 0.33 3019  86  70 -15 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.76 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1