National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Winter Storm Watch in effect along the southern Greens in Vermont and Essex and Clinton Counties in New York 10 AM Friday through 10 AM Saturday

A warm front will approach Friday afternoon. A brief wintry mix or rain in warmer valleys is possible before a quick transition into moderate or heavy snow takes place during the Friday evening commute. 1 inch per hour snowfall rates are possible in northeastern New York and much of Vermont. Difficult travel is likely to be the main concern. Light snow will continue Friday night into Saturday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260219_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 02/19 06Z 0.21 0312  56  17  -6 0.00
Thu 02/19 07Z 0.30 0413  55   9  -6 0.00
Thu 02/19 08Z 0.21 0509  46   4  -6 0.00
Thu 02/19 09Z 0.14 0406  36   2  -5 0.00
Thu 02/19 10Z 0.12 0406  33   2  -5 0.00
Thu 02/19 11Z 0.13 0406  33   4  -5 0.00
Thu 02/19 12Z 0.10 0504  31   5  -5 0.00
Thu 02/19 13Z 0.10 0704  29   5  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 14Z 0.06 0802  28   6  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 15Z 0.06 0802  27   6  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 16Z 0.05 0902  29   7  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 17Z 0.06 1002  32   9  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 18Z 0.02 1502  38  15  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 19Z 0.02 1603  43  25  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 20Z 0.07 1903  49  39  -5 0.00
Thu 02/19 21Z 0.13 2105  53  54  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 22Z 0.14 2106  52  61  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 23Z 0.13 2206  47  45  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 00Z 0.12 2205  48  34  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 01Z 0.08 2104  55  26  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 02Z 0.08 2005  64  27  -4 0.00
Fri 02/20 03Z 0.14 2007  74  28  -4 0.00
Fri 02/20 04Z 0.20 2109  82  28  -5 0.00
Fri 02/20 05Z 0.27 2211  87  28  -5 0.00
Fri 02/20 06Z 0.18 2209  88  22  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 07Z 0.19 2210  90  20  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 08Z 0.15 2208  88  18  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 09Z 0.13 2207  86  16  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 10Z 0.05 1904  85  20  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 11Z 0.03 1805  85  24  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 12Z 0.03 1707  85  28  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 13Z 0.02 1707  83  30  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 14Z 0.03 1609  79  24  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 15Z 0.02 1711  78  24  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 16Z 0.02 1612  78  25  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 17Z 0.04 1713  78  35  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 18Z 0.03 1714  79  76  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 19Z 0.05 1514  90  93  -1 0.01
Fri 02/20 20Z 0.11 1417  95  96   0 0.04
Fri 02/20 21Z 0.15 1420  96  98   0 0.03
Fri 02/20 22Z 0.18 1421  96  98   0 0.05
Fri 02/20 23Z 0.21 1422  95  98  -1 0.10
Sat 02/21 00Z 0.22 1322  95  99  -1 0.15
Sat 02/21 01Z 0.26 1323  95  98  -2 0.09
Sat 02/21 02Z 0.30 1323  96  97  -3 0.07
Sat 02/21 03Z 0.31 1321  96  97  -4 0.05
Sat 02/21 04Z 0.34 1320  95  95  -6 0.06
Sat 02/21 05Z 0.33 1419  95  85  -7 0.03
Sat 02/21 06Z 0.22 1517  95  93  -7 0.03
Sat 02/21 07Z 0.07 1615  94  95  -7 0.03
Sat 02/21 08Z 0.06 1714  94  96  -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 09Z 0.10 1812  95  95  -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 10Z 0.14 1812  97  96  -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 11Z 0.14 1911  98  95  -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 12Z 0.14 1909  98  94  -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 13Z 0.18 2009  97  91  -7 0.03
Sat 02/21 14Z 0.20 2108  97  89  -7 0.03
Sat 02/21 15Z 0.22 2207  97  88  -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 16Z 0.26 2407  97  87  -7 0.01
Sat 02/21 17Z 0.24 2406  98  83  -7 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.94 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1