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Winter Weather Advisory in Effect This Evening into Wednesday Morning

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 8 PM Tuesday to 9 AM Wednesday for portions of northern New York. A cold rain today will likely change to a period freezing rain tonight. Slick travel conditions are possible, so be sure to slow down and use caution if traveling later today and especially overnight into Wednesday morning as temperatures further cool. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260331_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 03/31 00Z 1.21 2523  60  93   6 0.00
Tue 03/31 01Z 1.60 2626  67  80   6 0.00
Tue 03/31 02Z 1.47 2729  72  63   6 0.00
Tue 03/31 03Z 1.46 2729  73  51   6 0.00
Tue 03/31 04Z 1.22 2727  80  52   5 0.00
Tue 03/31 05Z 0.91 2723  84  77   5 0.00
Tue 03/31 06Z 0.68 2719  88  89   5 0.03
Tue 03/31 07Z 0.54 2516  90  93   5 0.02
Tue 03/31 08Z 0.43 2415  95  88   6 0.03
Tue 03/31 09Z 0.44 2416  97  84   6 0.03
Tue 03/31 10Z 0.43 2316  97  86   6 0.02
Tue 03/31 11Z 0.44 2319  98  96   6 0.02
Tue 03/31 12Z 0.53 2224  98  93   7 0.09
Tue 03/31 13Z 0.64 2226  98  99   7 0.12
Tue 03/31 14Z 0.82 2332  98  95   7 0.06
Tue 03/31 15Z 0.91 2434  98  88   8 0.07
Tue 03/31 16Z 0.83 2530  97  84   8 0.06
Tue 03/31 17Z 0.83 2529  98  67   8 0.02
Tue 03/31 20Z 0.77 2426  99  85   9 0.02
Tue 03/31 21Z 0.80 2427  99  75   9 0.03
Tue 03/31 22Z 0.75 2327  99  73   9 0.04
Tue 03/31 23Z 0.70 2227  98  71  10 0.03
Wed 04/01 02Z 0.87 2236  98  94  10 0.03
Wed 04/01 03Z 1.03 2240  98  94  10 0.02
Wed 04/01 04Z 1.23 2341  98  91  10 0.06
Wed 04/01 05Z 1.38 2337  96  98   9 0.10
Wed 04/01 06Z 1.39 2439  99  80   9 0.08
Wed 04/01 07Z 1.28 2537  98  76   9 0.18
Wed 04/01 08Z 1.11 2537  98  78   9 0.15
Wed 04/01 09Z 0.89 2634  98  68   8 0.23
Wed 04/01 10Z 0.64 2730  98  81   8 0.10
Wed 04/01 11Z 0.43 2826  98  70   7 0.04
Wed 04/01 12Z 0.32 2923  95  55   6 0.03
Wed 04/01 13Z 0.27 3023  91  37   5 0.03
Wed 04/01 14Z 0.24 3123  86  13   3 0.03
Wed 04/01 15Z 0.21 3124  77   6   2 0.03
Wed 04/01 17Z 0.20 3223  72  12   0 0.02
Wed 04/01 18Z 0.16 3221  72  14   0 0.01
Wed 04/01 19Z 0.11 3319  71  16  -1 0.00
Wed 04/01 20Z 0.06 3417  70  17  -2 0.00
Wed 04/01 21Z 0.04 3513  67  21  -1 0.00
Wed 04/01 22Z 0.05 0011  66  22  -1 0.00
Wed 04/01 23Z 0.08 0108  64  24  -1 0.00
Thu 04/02 00Z 0.10 0307  62  26  -1 0.00
Thu 04/02 01Z 0.13 0507  53  30   0 0.00
Thu 04/02 02Z 0.11 0805  46  34   0 0.00
Thu 04/02 03Z 0.11 1107  44  36   0 0.00
Thu 04/02 04Z 0.11 1309  49  38   0 0.00
Thu 04/02 05Z 0.08 1512  55  40   0 0.00
Thu 04/02 06Z 0.07 1514  61  42   0 0.00
Thu 04/02 07Z 0.06 1516  65  60   0 0.00
Thu 04/02 08Z 0.05 1617  66  75   0 0.00
Thu 04/02 09Z 0.04 1616  68  78   1 0.00
Thu 04/02 10Z 0.04 1616  72  96   1 0.00
Thu 04/02 11Z 0.04 1615  79  98   1 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.83 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1