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Extreme Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.; Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the Great Basin and Southwest today, and exceptionally dry and windy conditions will promote rapid wildfire spread through the weekend. Scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260627_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 06/27 06Z 0.15 3108  81  63  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 07Z 0.14 3208  81  63  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 08Z 0.12 3208  82  66  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 09Z 0.09 3207  81  69  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 10Z 0.08 3105  80  72  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 11Z 0.08 3105  80  76  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 12Z 0.08 3104  81  77  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 13Z 0.07 3104  82  73  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 14Z 0.05 3203  82  67  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 15Z 0.05 3002  85  64  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 16Z 0.05 3001  87  62  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 17Z 0.05 3101  88  58  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 18Z 0.05 3201  87  55  11 0.03
Sat 06/27 19Z 0.06 3201  87  50  12 0.02
Sat 06/27 20Z 0.10 3202  86  50  12 0.03
Sat 06/27 21Z 0.07 3302  86  46  12 0.04
Sat 06/27 22Z 0.04 3502  86  44  12 0.01
Sat 06/27 23Z 0.07 0103  86  50  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 00Z 0.08 0202  86  47  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 01Z 0.09 0402  85  47  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 02Z 0.11 0502  85  48  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 03Z 0.08 0402  85  49  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 04Z 0.07 0302  86  51  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 05Z 0.08 0203  87  53  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 06Z 0.05 0103  86  55  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 07Z 0.03 0003  84  55  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 08Z 0.03 3505  79  45  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 09Z 0.03 3505  76  35  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 10Z 0.02 3506  73  26  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 11Z 0.04 3507  71  25  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 12Z 0.07 0007  70  27  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 13Z 0.07 0106  70  26  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 14Z 0.10 0105  71  25  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 15Z 0.12 0204  73  21  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 16Z 0.14 0103  76  19  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 17Z 0.13 0003  78  15  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 18Z 0.08 3503  79  12  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 19Z 0.09 3504  79  13  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 20Z 0.08 3404  79  12  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 21Z 0.07 3404  80   8  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 22Z 0.05 3404  79   6  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 23Z 0.04 3405  78   8  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 00Z 0.11 0007  78   8  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 01Z 0.16 0009  79  12  12 0.01
Mon 06/29 02Z 0.23 0209  78   9  12 0.01
Mon 06/29 03Z 0.23 0209  76   7  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 04Z 0.25 0309  74   7  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 05Z 0.21 0407  75   8  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 06Z 0.11 0304  72  10  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 07Z 0.03 0004  70  12  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 08Z 0.03 3405  69  14  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 09Z 0.03 3406  67  16  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 10Z 0.03 3507  63  16  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 11Z 0.04 3508  61  15  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 12Z 0.08 0008  60  15  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 13Z 0.12 0107  60  14  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 14Z 0.12 0106  63  15  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 15Z 0.16 0105  68  16  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 16Z 0.13 0002  71  16  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 17Z 0.20 0301  70  14  12 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.21 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1