National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall This Weekend in the Southern Plains and in South Florida; Bering Sea Storm in Alaska

A slow moving front will produce a threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather from New Mexico into the western High Plains through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is also expected this weekend in South Florida. The Bering Sea storm continues to bring heavy precipitation, strong winds, and minor to major coastal flooding through the weekend across western Alaska. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261024_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 10/24 06Z 0.03 3204  23   2   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 07Z 0.07 3105  22   2   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 08Z 0.09 3106  21   1   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 09Z 0.11 3008  19   1   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 10Z 0.13 3109  18   1   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 11Z 0.13 3110  18   1   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 12Z 0.12 3110  19   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 13Z 0.13 3110  20   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 14Z 0.13 3110  21   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 15Z 0.13 3109  22   1   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 16Z 0.13 3009  23   1   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 17Z 0.14 3008  23   2   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 18Z 0.14 3008  23   3   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 19Z 0.13 3108  23   4   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 20Z 0.12 3109  23   7   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 21Z 0.10 3209  20  11   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 22Z 0.10 3208  17  16   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 23Z 0.09 3208  15  25   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 00Z 0.07 3208  15  34   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 01Z 0.06 3207  15  45   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 02Z 0.06 3105  15  51   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 03Z 0.10 2905  15  55   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 04Z 0.13 2806  17  58   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 05Z 0.13 2806  17  56   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 06Z 0.12 2906  15  49   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 07Z 0.12 2806  14  45   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 08Z 0.14 2706  14  46   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 09Z 0.16 2707  15  50   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 10Z 0.19 2809  14  51   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 11Z 0.17 2809  10  42   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 12Z 0.14 2907   7  34   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 13Z 0.13 2907   7  31   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 14Z 0.13 2806   6  27   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 15Z 0.14 2706   6  26   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 16Z 0.15 2606   8  30   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 17Z 0.16 2507   8  32   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 18Z 0.18 2508   8  36  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 19Z 0.20 2509   7  39  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 20Z 0.24 2510   7  36  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 21Z 0.28 2512   6  31  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 22Z 0.32 2514   5  27  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 23Z 0.32 2614   8  24  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 00Z 0.31 2614  10  21  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 01Z 0.30 2714  12  19  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 02Z 0.28 2713  11  18  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 03Z 0.28 2613   9  18  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 04Z 0.29 2613   7  17  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 05Z 0.30 2614  10  18  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 06Z 0.32 2615  11  20  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 07Z 0.34 2716   9  21  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 08Z 0.34 2716   8  21  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 09Z 0.34 2817   9  18  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 10Z 0.33 2917  13  19  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 11Z 0.33 2917  20  37  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 12Z 0.34 2917  23  36   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 13Z 0.34 2917  31  48   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 14Z 0.36 2917  43  67   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 15Z 0.39 2818  55  84   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 16Z 0.42 2920  84  93   8 0.00
Mon 10/26 17Z 0.39 2920  94  95   7 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.01 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1