National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Snow and Wintry Mix Across Northern Vermont Tonight

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of northern Vermont from 3PM today through 7AM tomorrow. Plan on slippery road conditions. Snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour are likely this evening, most likely between 6PM and 9PM today. This evening’s commute and possibly the Tuesday morning commute will be impacted by hazardous road conditions so be sure to use extra caution. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20251110_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 11/10 18Z 0.10 0903 100  85   2 0.00
Mon 11/10 19Z 0.09 0504  99  91   2 0.04
Mon 11/10 20Z 0.07 0206  99  98   2 0.07
Mon 11/10 21Z 0.04 3508  98  96   1 0.07
Mon 11/10 22Z 0.09 3209  98  96   0 0.09
Mon 11/10 23Z 0.19 3013  97  97   0 0.12
Tue 11/11 00Z 0.24 3118  94  91  -1 0.06
Tue 11/11 01Z 0.23 3118  91  73  -1 0.01
Tue 11/11 02Z 0.28 3018  94  54  -3 0.01
Tue 11/11 03Z 0.40 2921  95  32  -4 0.01
Tue 11/11 04Z 0.42 2920  96  19  -5 0.01
Tue 11/11 05Z 0.38 2916  97  10  -5 0.01
Tue 11/11 06Z 0.39 2815  96   7  -6 0.01
Tue 11/11 07Z 0.42 2816  95   5  -6 0.01
Tue 11/11 08Z 0.46 2716  94   6  -7 0.01
Tue 11/11 09Z 0.55 2717  95   9  -9 0.01
Tue 11/11 10Z 0.58 2717  95  14  -9 0.01
Tue 11/11 11Z 0.69 2617  96  20 -10 0.01
Tue 11/11 12Z 0.85 2618  96  26 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 13Z 1.04 2717  96  38 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 14Z 1.64 2818  96  50 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 15Z 2.50 2717  95  70 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 16Z 3.52 2716  95  88 -11 0.01
Tue 11/11 17Z 3.17 2616  94  91 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 18Z 4.18 2618  94  87 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 19Z 3.72 2621  95  81 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 20Z 2.51 2723  94  75 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 21Z 1.43 2725  92  76 -10 0.02
Tue 11/11 22Z 1.63 2728  91  75 -10 0.01
Tue 11/11 23Z 1.53 2831  91  71 -10 0.01
Wed 11/12 00Z 1.47 2831  91  61 -10 0.00
Wed 11/12 01Z 1.19 2831  84  66 -10 0.00
Wed 11/12 02Z 1.29 2830  86  70 -10 0.00
Wed 11/12 03Z 1.32 2830  89  36 -10 0.00
Wed 11/12 04Z 1.10 2828  90  20  -9 0.00
Wed 11/12 05Z 0.95 2828  89  20  -9 0.00
Wed 11/12 06Z 0.82 2828  86  25  -8 0.00
Wed 11/12 07Z 0.68 2725  80  26  -7 0.00
Wed 11/12 08Z 0.68 2724  80  26  -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 09Z 0.63 2622  84  28  -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 10Z 0.55 2619  88  64  -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 11Z 0.49 2518  87  85  -5 0.00
Wed 11/12 12Z 0.48 2417  82  88  -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 13Z 0.45 2315  91  90  -6 0.01
Wed 11/12 14Z 0.41 2215  94  91  -6 0.01
Wed 11/12 15Z 0.49 2214  94  91  -7 0.01
Wed 11/12 16Z 0.58 2312  94  89  -7 0.01
Wed 11/12 17Z 0.68 2311  93  86  -7 0.00
Wed 11/12 18Z 0.57 2311  91  89  -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 19Z 0.45 2311  89  93  -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 20Z 0.51 2413  93  92  -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 21Z 0.59 2415  95  91  -6 0.00
Wed 11/12 22Z 0.58 2516  95  90  -5 0.00
Wed 11/12 23Z 0.57 2617  94  88  -5 0.01
Thu 11/13 00Z 0.56 2517  95  86  -5 0.01
Thu 11/13 01Z 0.61 2618  96  84  -5 0.02
Thu 11/13 02Z 0.61 2718  96  82  -4 0.01
Thu 11/13 03Z 0.54 2717  96  82  -4 0.01
Thu 11/13 04Z 0.45 2714  96  86  -4 0.01
Thu 11/13 05Z 0.43 2613  97  91  -4 0.02

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.86 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1