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Autumn Temperatures for Eastern Third of the Country; Super Typhoon Approaching Guam

Cooler and less humid conditions for the eastern third of the nation as a cold slides off the east coast. Combination of dry and breezy conditions may result in spread of wildfires across the lower Mississippi Valley. In addition, fire weather conditions linger into portions of Southern California. For Guam, a super typhoon is approaching. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261017_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 10/17 12Z 0.54 3225  98   5  -5 0.00
Sat 10/17 13Z 0.59 3225  97   0  -6 0.01
Sat 10/17 14Z 0.55 3224  96   0  -7 0.01
Sat 10/17 15Z 0.59 3224  94   2  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 16Z 0.75 3222  90   5  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 17Z 0.87 3220  87   5  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 18Z 0.66 3119  81  12  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 19Z 0.71 3118  74  25  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 20Z 0.79 3117  74  29  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 21Z 0.61 3116  70  32  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 22Z 0.56 3118  64  27  -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 23Z 0.45 3120  57  32  -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 00Z 0.36 3121  50  38  -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 01Z 0.29 3220  47  52  -4 0.00
Sun 10/18 02Z 0.24 3219  44  52  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 03Z 0.24 3118  43  48  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 04Z 0.25 3118  44  58  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 05Z 0.25 3117  48  55  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 06Z 0.25 3116  51  51  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 07Z 0.28 3115  54  50  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 08Z 0.33 3015  55  50  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 09Z 0.36 3016  62  52  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 10Z 0.33 3016  67  52  -2 0.00
Sun 10/18 11Z 0.28 3014  69  52  -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 12Z 0.25 3012  70  51  -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 13Z 0.24 2911  69  47   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 14Z 0.22 2911  68  42   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 15Z 0.21 2910  66  39   1 0.00
Sun 10/18 16Z 0.22 2809  62  37   1 0.00
Sun 10/18 17Z 0.26 2710  56  34   2 0.00
Sun 10/18 18Z 0.26 2710  48  32   3 0.00
Sun 10/18 19Z 0.25 2810  42  35   4 0.00
Sun 10/18 20Z 0.23 2710  37  33   5 0.00
Sun 10/18 21Z 0.22 2710  33  25   6 0.00
Sun 10/18 22Z 0.23 2711  30  16   7 0.00
Sun 10/18 23Z 0.23 2812  26  12   7 0.00
Mon 10/19 00Z 0.22 2711  22  10   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 01Z 0.21 2610  18  12   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 02Z 0.21 2609  13  17   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 03Z 0.22 2610  11  23   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 04Z 0.23 2610  10  28   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 05Z 0.23 2611  12  32  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 06Z 0.23 2611  14  32  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 07Z 0.23 2611  17  30  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 08Z 0.23 2611  20  27  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 09Z 0.22 2711  20  26  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 10Z 0.22 2710  20  25  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 11Z 0.21 2710  19  24  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 12Z 0.20 2709  17  23  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 13Z 0.21 2809  16  23  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 14Z 0.20 2809  16  23  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 15Z 0.21 2809  15  22  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 16Z 0.20 2809  15  22  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 17Z 0.19 2808  15  21  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 18Z 0.19 2909  14  20  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 19Z 0.19 2909  13  20  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 20Z 0.18 3010  13  20  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 21Z 0.16 3110  14  19  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 22Z 0.13 3211  16  18  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 23Z 0.09 3310  18  18  10 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.02 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1