National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall Threat Continues in the Southwest on Monday; Record Warmth in the Plains and Midwest

Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel will persist over portions of the Great Basin and Southwest on Monday, bringing a potential heavy to excessive rainfall risk. Well above average and potentially record breaking temperatures will develop across the Plains and Midwest early this week, spreading into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast midweek. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261012_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 10/12 18Z 0.17 3112  84  59  11 0.00
Mon 10/12 19Z 0.27 3015  83  67  11 0.00
Mon 10/12 20Z 0.38 2918  88  73  10 0.01
Mon 10/12 21Z 0.45 2920  90  67  10 0.01
Mon 10/12 22Z 0.44 3021  92  66   9 0.01
Mon 10/12 23Z 0.41 3124  94  68   9 0.01
Tue 10/13 00Z 0.31 3222  96  63   8 0.01
Tue 10/13 01Z 0.25 3219  97  54   8 0.01
Tue 10/13 02Z 0.18 3216  97  63   7 0.01
Tue 10/13 03Z 0.09 3311  97  71   7 0.00
Tue 10/13 04Z 0.06 3407  97  95   7 0.01
Tue 10/13 05Z 0.07 0203  97  99   7 0.01
Tue 10/13 06Z 0.11 0803  98  99   7 0.05
Tue 10/13 07Z 0.17 1107  98  98   7 0.08
Tue 10/13 08Z 0.16 1311  98  98   7 0.06
Tue 10/13 09Z 0.10 1515  98  98   7 0.09
Tue 10/13 10Z 0.08 1519  97  96   7 0.07
Tue 10/13 11Z 0.06 1620  97  91   7 0.03
Tue 10/13 12Z 0.04 1720  97  98   8 0.02
Tue 10/13 13Z 0.05 1723  97  95   8 0.06
Tue 10/13 14Z 0.05 1725  98  98   8 0.03
Tue 10/13 15Z 0.04 1726  98  97   9 0.08
Tue 10/13 16Z 0.04 1729  98  98   9 0.05
Tue 10/13 17Z 0.05 1731  98  97  10 0.06
Tue 10/13 18Z 0.08 1732  98  88  11 0.09
Tue 10/13 19Z 0.10 1832  98  97  11 0.20
Tue 10/13 20Z 0.16 1831  98  99  12 0.14
Tue 10/13 21Z 0.24 1931  98  99  11 0.20
Tue 10/13 22Z 0.30 2027  98  85  12 0.11
Tue 10/13 23Z 0.36 2128  99  88  12 0.10
Wed 10/14 00Z 0.41 2228  98  90  13 0.14
Wed 10/14 01Z 0.47 2327  98  88  13 0.18
Wed 10/14 02Z 0.51 2327  99  89  13 0.18
Wed 10/14 03Z 0.56 2427  99  79  13 0.08
Wed 10/14 04Z 0.60 2427  99  83  14 0.07
Wed 10/14 05Z 0.72 2428  96  80  13 0.14
Wed 10/14 06Z 0.70 2427  99  79  14 0.09
Wed 10/14 07Z 0.79 2529  98  55  14 0.05
Wed 10/14 08Z 0.91 2530  97  28  13 0.05
Wed 10/14 09Z 1.02 2631  96  10  12 0.03
Wed 10/14 10Z 1.10 2630  95  15  11 0.02
Wed 10/14 11Z 1.17 2731  96  15  10 0.02
Wed 10/14 12Z 1.00 2731  96  28   9 0.02
Wed 10/14 13Z 0.79 2729  94  24  10 0.01
Wed 10/14 14Z 0.69 2729  92  19  10 0.01
Wed 10/14 15Z 0.66 2729  90  40   9 0.01
Wed 10/14 16Z 0.58 2827  88  52  10 0.01
Wed 10/14 17Z 0.62 2826  91  67   9 0.01
Wed 10/14 18Z 0.63 2826  92  64   8 0.02
Wed 10/14 19Z 0.64 2826  94  67   7 0.01
Wed 10/14 20Z 0.62 2826  95  75   6 0.01
Wed 10/14 21Z 0.60 2926  95  71   5 0.01
Wed 10/14 22Z 0.56 2926  96  61   5 0.01
Wed 10/14 23Z 0.53 3027  97  45   4 0.01
Thu 10/15 00Z 0.45 3127  96  26   4 0.01
Thu 10/15 01Z 0.37 3128  96  24   4 0.01
Thu 10/15 02Z 0.36 3229  95  20   3 0.01
Thu 10/15 03Z 0.39 3231  95   6   3 0.00
Thu 10/15 04Z 0.37 3231  95   1   2 0.01
Thu 10/15 05Z 0.39 3231  96   1   2 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 2.84 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1