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Nor'easter Bringing Dangerous Coastal Conditions to the Mid-Atlantic; Pacific Storm to Impact the Southwest U.S.

A Nor'easter well off the East Coast will slowly track north this week and may gain some subtropical characteristics. Strong onshore winds will bring flooding, dangerous marine conditions, and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A Pacific storm will bring gusty winds, severe thunderstorms, and mountain snow to portions of California and the Southwest U.S. through Thursday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261021_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 10/21 00Z 0.22 0217  51   7   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 01Z 0.24 0219  46   7   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 02Z 0.26 0319  43   8   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 03Z 0.30 0320  41   8   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 04Z 0.31 0418  41   8   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 05Z 0.30 0516  44   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 06Z 0.30 0714  47   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 07Z 0.26 0712  49   7   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 08Z 0.22 0810  50   6   5 0.00
Wed 10/21 09Z 0.17 0708  48   5   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 10Z 0.15 0608  43   4   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 11Z 0.15 0409  38   3   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 12Z 0.15 0409  37   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 13Z 0.16 0508  39   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 14Z 0.15 0508  40   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 15Z 0.12 0407  39   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 16Z 0.11 0307  38   2   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 17Z 0.12 0407  40   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 18Z 0.13 0606  42   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 19Z 0.10 0604  42   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 20Z 0.09 0404  41   2   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 21Z 0.08 0404  38   2   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 22Z 0.08 0504  36   3   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 23Z 0.07 0403  36   3   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 00Z 0.06 0204  33   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 01Z 0.05 0105  32   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 02Z 0.06 0106  31   4   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 03Z 0.05 0108  30   4   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 04Z 0.05 0010  29   5   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 05Z 0.08 0012  26   7   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 06Z 0.10 0113  23  10   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 07Z 0.10 0015  21  12   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 08Z 0.11 0017  19  14   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 09Z 0.11 0019  18  16   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 10Z 0.11 0021  16  17   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 11Z 0.12 0022  18  18   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 12Z 0.12 0022  29  17   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 13Z 0.11 0023  44  19   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 14Z 0.10 0022  61  25   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 15Z 0.09 0022  72  40   5 0.00
Thu 10/22 16Z 0.09 3522  82  51   4 0.00
Thu 10/22 17Z 0.11 3523  88  32   4 0.00
Thu 10/22 18Z 0.13 3524  90  12   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 19Z 0.14 3523  89  15   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 20Z 0.17 0026  73  24   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 21Z 0.16 0028  61  25   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 22Z 0.16 0030  55  17   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 23Z 0.19 0032  47  20   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 00Z 0.23 0033  47  28   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 01Z 0.29 0134  50  15   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 02Z 0.35 0134  53   4   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 03Z 0.42 0133  49   1  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 04Z 0.43 0131  51   1  -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 05Z 0.35 0129  52   3  -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 06Z 0.31 0128  56   3  -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 07Z 0.31 0129  52   3  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 08Z 0.30 0130  46   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 09Z 0.31 0230  38   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 10Z 0.30 0229  38   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 11Z 0.28 0128  43   2   0 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1