
A warm front will approach this afternoon. A brief wintry mix or rain in warmer valleys is likely before a quick transition into moderate to heavy snow takes place during the evening commute. 1-1.5 inch per hour snowfall rates are likely in northeastern New York and much of Vermont. Difficult to very difficult travel is likely this evening. Light snow will continue Friday night into Saturday. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260220_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 02/20 18Z 0.09 1515 82 87 -1 0.00
Fri 02/20 19Z 0.17 1419 90 92 0 0.02
Fri 02/20 20Z 0.19 1421 95 95 -1 0.06
Fri 02/20 21Z 0.21 1321 96 97 -1 0.10
Sat 02/21 00Z 0.36 1223 96 99 -3 0.10
Sat 02/21 01Z 0.34 1321 96 93 -4 0.13
Sat 02/21 02Z 0.29 1317 96 95 -5 0.17
Sat 02/21 03Z 0.22 1415 95 92 -6 0.12
Sat 02/21 04Z 0.14 1513 95 89 -6 0.12
Sat 02/21 05Z 0.06 1610 96 90 -6 0.06
Sat 02/21 06Z 0.05 1708 96 91 -7 0.03
Sat 02/21 07Z 0.06 1806 96 91 -7 0.03
Sat 02/21 08Z 0.12 2006 96 94 -7 0.03
Sat 02/21 09Z 0.21 2106 97 94 -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 10Z 0.26 2407 99 93 -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 11Z 0.26 2707 99 91 -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 12Z 0.24 2907 99 89 -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 13Z 0.21 3007 99 89 -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 14Z 0.19 3107 99 88 -7 0.02
Sat 02/21 15Z 0.12 3207 98 85 -7 0.01
Sat 02/21 16Z 0.08 3305 98 81 -8 0.01
Sat 02/21 17Z 0.07 3405 98 76 -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 18Z 0.07 3504 98 72 -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 19Z 0.07 3504 97 70 -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 20Z 0.05 3505 95 63 -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 21Z 0.05 0005 93 58 -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 22Z 0.08 0105 91 54 -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 23Z 0.14 0306 87 53 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 00Z 0.17 0407 79 53 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 01Z 0.18 0507 68 43 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 02Z 0.19 0707 65 34 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 03Z 0.17 0906 67 28 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 04Z 0.16 1007 64 25 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 05Z 0.16 1108 56 24 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 06Z 0.15 1209 54 26 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 07Z 0.15 1311 55 28 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 08Z 0.14 1412 54 29 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 09Z 0.14 1312 52 29 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 10Z 0.16 1312 50 29 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 11Z 0.20 1213 53 27 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 12Z 0.22 1214 57 25 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 13Z 0.26 1215 60 23 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 14Z 0.23 1316 63 29 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 15Z 0.23 1316 65 35 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 16Z 0.29 1215 64 34 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 17Z 0.32 1216 65 33 -7 0.00
Sun 02/22 18Z 0.36 1216 68 37 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 19Z 0.41 1216 74 37 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 20Z 0.46 1215 78 35 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 21Z 0.48 1115 80 33 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 22Z 0.47 1115 78 32 -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 23Z 0.47 1016 71 32 -7 0.00
Mon 02/23 00Z 0.49 0917 67 39 -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 01Z 0.50 0918 67 45 -8 0.00
Mon 02/23 02Z 0.49 0920 60 35 -7 0.00
Mon 02/23 03Z 0.49 0922 52 38 -7 0.00
Mon 02/23 04Z 0.52 0924 48 35 -7 0.00
Mon 02/23 05Z 0.55 0825 47 38 -7 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.11 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1