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Nor'easter Bringing Dangerous Coastal Conditions to the Mid-Atlantic; Pacific Storm to Impact the Southwest U.S.

A Nor'easter well off the East Coast will slowly track north this week and may gain some subtropical characteristics. Strong onshore winds will bring flooding, dangerous marine conditions, and beach erosion along the Mid-Atlantic coast. A Pacific storm will bring gusty winds, showers and thunderstorms, and mountain snow to portions of California and the Southwest U.S. Wednesday and Thursday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261020_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 10/20 18Z 0.17 0013  54   5   5 0.00
Tue 10/20 19Z 0.16 0015  55   5   5 0.00
Tue 10/20 20Z 0.17 0117  53   6   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 21Z 0.19 0119  49   6   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 22Z 0.24 0121  45   6   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 23Z 0.29 0221  41   6   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 00Z 0.30 0321  37   7   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 01Z 0.29 0319  34   7   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 02Z 0.29 0418  33   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 03Z 0.27 0415  34   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 04Z 0.24 0513  36   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 05Z 0.22 0611  37   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 06Z 0.20 0609  39   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 07Z 0.18 0608  40   8   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 08Z 0.16 0608  38   7   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 09Z 0.15 0608  38   7   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 10Z 0.14 0607  37   6   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 11Z 0.15 0608  35   5   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 12Z 0.14 0608  33   4   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 13Z 0.15 0508  32   4   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 14Z 0.14 0508  33   4   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 15Z 0.14 0608  34   4   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 16Z 0.12 0606  35   4   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 17Z 0.12 0506  33   3   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 18Z 0.11 0505  34   4   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 19Z 0.11 0505  33   3   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 20Z 0.12 0605  34   3   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 21Z 0.11 0605  33   3   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 22Z 0.10 0505  32   3   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 23Z 0.10 0406  32   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 00Z 0.10 0306  34   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 01Z 0.09 0208  33   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 02Z 0.10 0110  31   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 03Z 0.12 0212  29   3   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 04Z 0.13 0212  27   4   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 05Z 0.14 0115  24   6   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 06Z 0.15 0117  21   9   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 07Z 0.17 0119  19  11   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 08Z 0.19 0121  18  13   8 0.00
Thu 10/22 09Z 0.20 0122  17  15   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 10Z 0.20 0123  16  16   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 11Z 0.19 0124  20  17   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 12Z 0.20 0124  30  16   7 0.00
Thu 10/22 13Z 0.21 0124  49  17   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 14Z 0.20 0124  69  29   6 0.00
Thu 10/22 15Z 0.18 0024  78  44   5 0.00
Thu 10/22 16Z 0.13 0024  86  47   4 0.00
Thu 10/22 17Z 0.05 3524  90  33   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 18Z 0.04 3426  90  13   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 19Z 0.06 3527  77  15   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 20Z 0.07 3528  68  22   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 21Z 0.10 3530  70  20   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 22Z 0.14 3532  63  24   1 0.00
Thu 10/22 23Z 0.20 0033  54  33   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 00Z 0.23 0034  57  24   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 01Z 0.29 0035  58   6  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 02Z 0.37 0135  54   2  -1 0.00
Fri 10/23 03Z 0.35 0034  53   4  -2 0.00
Fri 10/23 04Z 0.30 0033  58   5  -3 0.00
Fri 10/23 05Z 0.28 0032  62   7  -3 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1