National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall This Weekend in the Southern Plains and in South Florida; Bering Sea Storm in Alaska

A slow moving front will produce a threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather from New Mexico into the western High Plains through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is also expected this weekend in South Florida. The Bering Sea storm continues to bring heavy precipitation, strong winds, and minor to major coastal flooding through the weekend across western Alaska. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261024_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 10/24 18Z 0.10 3106  36   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 19Z 0.07 3206  39   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 20Z 0.07 3205  39   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 21Z 0.08 3105  38   2   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 22Z 0.11 3106  38   2   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 23Z 0.13 3007  36   3   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 00Z 0.15 3008  35   3   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 01Z 0.12 3107  36   3   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 02Z 0.10 3106  35   3   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 03Z 0.09 3106  33   3   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 04Z 0.09 3005  31   3   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 05Z 0.12 2805  27   3   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 06Z 0.13 2806  21   3   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 07Z 0.13 2806  18   2   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 08Z 0.13 2806  17   2   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 09Z 0.13 2706  16   2   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 10Z 0.14 2706  16   3   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 11Z 0.15 2707  17   5   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 12Z 0.18 2708  18   7   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 13Z 0.19 2709  17   8   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 14Z 0.18 2708  14  10   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 15Z 0.16 2607  12  11   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 16Z 0.18 2608  13  10   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 17Z 0.19 2608  14   9   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 18Z 0.20 2609  14  12   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 19Z 0.22 2610  14  13   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 20Z 0.22 2510  13  12   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 21Z 0.24 2611  13  13  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 22Z 0.27 2612  15  14  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 23Z 0.28 2613  16  16  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 00Z 0.29 2613  17  16  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 01Z 0.30 2614  17  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 02Z 0.31 2615  15  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 03Z 0.32 2616  11  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 04Z 0.32 2616  11  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 05Z 0.35 2618  15  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 06Z 0.36 2718  15  13  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 07Z 0.33 2717  15  11  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 08Z 0.33 2817  19   9  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 09Z 0.34 2818  22  10  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 10Z 0.36 2919  28  13  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 11Z 0.36 2919  29  14  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 12Z 0.38 2919  37  33  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 13Z 0.41 2920  47  39   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 14Z 0.45 2922  63  56   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 15Z 0.46 2922  84  68   8 0.00
Mon 10/26 16Z 0.45 2923  94  84   8 0.01
Mon 10/26 17Z 0.40 3022  96  90   7 0.01
Mon 10/26 18Z 0.39 3021  91  90   6 0.01
Mon 10/26 19Z 0.43 3021  87  89   5 0.00
Mon 10/26 20Z 0.42 3020  84  90   4 0.01
Mon 10/26 21Z 0.40 3120  84  63   3 0.01
Mon 10/26 22Z 0.39 3123  86  33   3 0.01
Mon 10/26 23Z 0.35 3224  89  25   1 0.01
Tue 10/27 00Z 0.26 3224  84  23   0 0.01
Tue 10/27 01Z 0.18 3323  83  19   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 02Z 0.11 3423  80  16  -1 0.00
Tue 10/27 03Z 0.06 3423  78  14  -2 0.00
Tue 10/27 04Z 0.04 3423  74  16  -2 0.00
Tue 10/27 05Z 0.05 3424  71  16  -2 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.08 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1