National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Hazardous Travel for This Evening's Commute and Wednesday Morning's Commute in Locally Heavy Snow

Snow accumulations between 3 and 6 inches are expected across much of the area from 10 AM today to 7 AM Wednesday. Some locally higher amounts are expected in the northern Adirondacks. The heaviest snowfall rates are anticipated during this evening's commute. Plan on slippery road conditions. Roads, especially bridges and overpasses, will become slick. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260210_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 02/10 00Z 0.19 3221  53  69  -9 0.00
Tue 02/10 01Z 0.18 3222  56  68  -9 0.00
Tue 02/10 02Z 0.14 3222  55  70  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 03Z 0.11 3321  54  73  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 04Z 0.09 3319  54  79  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 05Z 0.09 3318  57  83  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 08Z 0.13 3215  84  89  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 09Z 0.13 3113  87  88  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 10Z 0.13 3112  85  87  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 11Z 0.13 3111  80  85  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 12Z 0.15 3010  72  82  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 13Z 0.13 2907  58  72  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 14Z 0.12 2706  43  58  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 15Z 0.14 2507  36  54  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 16Z 0.14 2307  33  47  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 17Z 0.14 2207  33  49  -5 0.00
Tue 02/10 18Z 0.17 2109  31  69  -5 0.00
Tue 02/10 19Z 0.19 2111  36  91  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 20Z 0.22 2013  63  94  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 21Z 0.12 1815  81  94  -5 0.00
Tue 02/10 22Z 0.09 1818  94  94  -3 0.00
Tue 02/10 23Z 0.15 1922  95  94  -4 0.00
Wed 02/11 00Z 0.19 1923  95  96  -3 0.01
Wed 02/11 01Z 0.33 2025  96  98  -5 0.07
Wed 02/11 02Z 0.41 2124  97  97  -5 0.10
Wed 02/11 03Z 0.42 2222  97  98  -4 0.09
Wed 02/11 04Z 0.41 2320  97  95  -4 0.06
Wed 02/11 05Z 0.39 2418  98  85  -4 0.06
Wed 02/11 06Z 0.37 2416  98  37  -5 0.05
Wed 02/11 07Z 0.40 2516  98  18  -5 0.03
Wed 02/11 08Z 0.47 2617  97   9  -5 0.02
Wed 02/11 09Z 0.50 2718  97  19  -6 0.02
Wed 02/11 10Z 0.54 2819  98  29  -7 0.02
Wed 02/11 11Z 0.55 2920  97  45  -8 0.02
Wed 02/11 12Z 0.51 3021  96  65  -8 0.02
Wed 02/11 13Z 0.54 3021  96  74  -9 0.02
Wed 02/11 14Z 0.58 3021  95  80 -10 0.01
Wed 02/11 15Z 0.62 3021  94  82 -10 0.01
Wed 02/11 16Z 0.74 3020  93  81 -10 0.01
Wed 02/11 17Z 1.48 3019  94  82 -11 0.01
Wed 02/11 18Z 2.73 3018  94  84 -11 0.01
Wed 02/11 19Z 2.61 3018  94  86 -11 0.01
Wed 02/11 20Z 1.75 3019  95  88 -11 0.01
Wed 02/11 21Z 0.92 3120  95  86 -11 0.01
Wed 02/11 22Z 0.69 3223  96  85 -12 0.01
Wed 02/11 23Z 0.57 3225  96  83 -13 0.01
Thu 02/12 00Z 0.42 3325  96  82 -13 0.01
Thu 02/12 01Z 0.34 3326  95  81 -12 0.01
Thu 02/12 02Z 0.34 3326  96  81 -12 0.00
Thu 02/12 03Z 0.26 3324  96  81 -12 0.01
Thu 02/12 04Z 0.19 3324  95  80 -12 0.01
Thu 02/12 05Z 0.17 3324  95  79 -12 0.01
Thu 02/12 06Z 0.14 3325  93  76 -12 0.01
Thu 02/12 07Z 0.12 3426  92  75 -11 0.00
Thu 02/12 08Z 0.12 3326  92  75 -12 0.00
Thu 02/12 09Z 0.14 3326  93  73 -12 0.00
Thu 02/12 10Z 0.15 3327  94  73 -13 0.00
Thu 02/12 11Z 0.18 3327  94  74 -13 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.75 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1