National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.; Dangerous Heat in the Southern and Western U.S.

Severe weather and flooding threats will continue for portions of the central U.S. over the next couple of days, with multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected. Dangerous heat will persist across the southern and western U.S. through mid-week. Hot and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns for the Intermountain West, where dry thunderstorms may spark additional wildfires. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260623_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 06/23 18Z 0.05 3509  94  29  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 19Z 0.05 3409  91  26  11 0.00
Tue 06/23 20Z 0.08 3508  90  33  11 0.01
Tue 06/23 21Z 0.06 3508  88  40  11 0.02
Tue 06/23 22Z 0.04 3408  87  39  11 0.00
Tue 06/23 23Z 0.08 3410  88  28  11 0.00
Wed 06/24 00Z 0.10 3412  90  32  11 0.00
Wed 06/24 01Z 0.16 3313  89  40  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 02Z 0.22 3316  90  42  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 03Z 0.22 3318  92  41  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 04Z 0.21 3319  90  36   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 05Z 0.17 3317  87  31   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 06Z 0.15 3317  86  33   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 07Z 0.11 3315  84  36   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 08Z 0.11 3314  84  28   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 09Z 0.13 3314  84  25   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 10Z 0.16 3314  85  19   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 11Z 0.22 3215  87  21   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 12Z 0.27 3215  88  26   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 13Z 0.37 3115  90  30   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 14Z 0.61 3115  90  35   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 15Z 1.51 3114  88  37   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 16Z 2.52 3014  90  29   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 17Z 1.91 3014  89  32   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 18Z 4.08 3013  86  33   8 0.01
Wed 06/24 19Z 6.37 2914  85  38   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 20Z 6.04 2913  83  38   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 21Z 5.27 2915  80  36   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 22Z 2.30 2914  75  24  10 0.00
Wed 06/24 23Z 2.28 2917  76  23  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 00Z 1.71 2919  77  23  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 01Z 1.11 2920  83  20   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 02Z 0.83 3021  82  21   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 03Z 0.65 3019  81  16   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 04Z 0.55 3018  77  15   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 05Z 0.53 3016  77  11   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 06Z 0.47 3015  76   8   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 07Z 0.45 3013  75   8   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 08Z 0.47 2912  76   9   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 09Z 0.43 2910  75  14   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 10Z 0.43 2909  75  17   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 11Z 0.43 2808  76  18   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 12Z 0.41 2708  76  25   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 13Z 0.43 2706  76  39   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 14Z 0.66 2505  76  43   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 15Z 1.13 2406  76  60   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 16Z 1.62 2406  75  66  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 17Z 1.40 2406  71  71  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 18Z 1.21 2305  66  57  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 19Z 0.81 2003  64  24  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 20Z 0.57 1904  64  17  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 21Z 0.27 2003  66  25  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 22Z 0.10 1605  69  51  12 0.00
Thu 06/25 23Z 0.13 1608  71  75  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 00Z 0.20 1610  73  93  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 01Z 0.22 1712  80  90  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 02Z 0.23 1814  83  86  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 03Z 0.31 1918  84  85  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 04Z 0.43 1920  88  90  11 0.04
Fri 06/26 05Z 0.36 1921  90  94  11 0.05

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.18 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1