National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

A wintry mix is expected late Thursday into Friday Morning for portions of southern Vermont and portions of northern New York.

A wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain will spread northward late Thursday through Friday Morning, mainly in southern Vermont and western Essex County in New York. Precipitation will likely start as a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet, before transitioning to mainly snow. Total snow and sleet accumulations up to two inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch are expected. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260305_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 03/05 12Z 0.07 2603  51  18   2 0.00
Thu 03/05 13Z 0.04 2702  50  19   2 0.00
Thu 03/05 14Z 0.02 0600  49  21   2 0.00
Thu 03/05 15Z 0.04 1303  51  22   2 0.00
Thu 03/05 16Z 0.11 1307  56  25   1 0.00
Thu 03/05 17Z 0.13 1309  60  25   1 0.00
Thu 03/05 18Z 0.13 1411  64  25   1 0.00
Thu 03/05 19Z 0.13 1412  70  28   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 20Z 0.15 1311  78  30   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 21Z 0.15 1312  83  32   0 0.00
Thu 03/05 22Z 0.11 1413  82  39   0 0.01
Thu 03/05 23Z 0.10 1413  80  49   1 0.01
Fri 03/06 00Z 0.13 1315  77  55   1 0.00
Fri 03/06 01Z 0.14 1316  79  62   1 0.00
Fri 03/06 02Z 0.14 1317  82  67   1 0.01
Fri 03/06 03Z 0.15 1318  85  70   1 0.01
Fri 03/06 04Z 0.14 1318  89  72   1 0.00
Fri 03/06 05Z 0.14 1317  91  72   1 0.01
Fri 03/06 06Z 0.13 1417  94  75   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 07Z 0.13 1417  96  74   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 08Z 0.13 1417  97  75   0 0.02
Fri 03/06 09Z 0.12 1417  96  73   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 10Z 0.12 1416  95  65   0 0.01
Fri 03/06 11Z 0.12 1416  95  56   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 12Z 0.11 1416  95  49   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 13Z 0.10 1415  95  43   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 14Z 0.08 1515  95  38   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 15Z 0.06 1515  95  34   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 16Z 0.04 1615  96  34   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 17Z 0.04 1614  96  31   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 18Z 0.04 1714  95  29   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 19Z 0.04 1714  94  27   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 20Z 0.04 1716  93  20   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 21Z 0.08 1817  94  33   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 22Z 0.12 1819  95  49   0 0.00
Fri 03/06 23Z 0.15 1821  95  59   0 0.00
Sat 03/07 00Z 0.18 1923  95  63   0 0.00
Sat 03/07 01Z 0.22 1925  95  52   0 0.00
Sat 03/07 02Z 0.25 1927  95  53   0 0.00
Sat 03/07 03Z 0.26 1928  95  48   1 0.00
Sat 03/07 04Z 0.24 1928  94  40   2 0.00
Sat 03/07 05Z 0.25 1929  94  18   3 0.00
Sat 03/07 06Z 0.28 2029  95  22   3 0.00
Sat 03/07 07Z 0.30 2029  95  45   4 0.01
Sat 03/07 08Z 0.33 2030  96  56   5 0.01
Sat 03/07 09Z 0.34 2032  97  81   5 0.02
Sat 03/07 10Z 0.39 2133  98  45   6 0.03
Sat 03/07 11Z 0.40 2132  97  84   7 0.04
Sat 03/07 12Z 0.41 2232  97  92   8 0.03
Sat 03/07 13Z 0.44 2231  97  92   8 0.02
Sat 03/07 14Z 0.45 2331  96  86   9 0.02
Sat 03/07 15Z 0.44 2330  95  80  10 0.01
Sat 03/07 16Z 0.46 2231  96  54  10 0.01
Sat 03/07 17Z 0.49 2233  95  35  10 0.01
Sat 03/07 19Z 0.54 2235  92  40  11 0.01
Sat 03/07 20Z 0.55 2335  91  70  12 0.00
Sat 03/07 21Z 0.55 2336  92  74  12 0.00
Sat 03/07 22Z 0.58 2238  94  59  12 0.01
Sat 03/07 23Z 0.67 2341  93  50  11 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.35 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1