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Showers and Thunderstorms from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley; Record Warmth in the Central U.S.

Heavy rain and widely scattered severe storms are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Unseasonable warmth will continue for a few more days across the Midwest, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic where several daily record highs could fall. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261015_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 10/15 00Z 0.67 3024  98  43   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 01Z 0.70 3128  98  29   3 0.01
Thu 10/15 02Z 0.54 3129  97  22   3 0.01
Thu 10/15 03Z 0.44 3229  96   7   3 0.01
Thu 10/15 04Z 0.45 3230  96   3   3 0.01
Thu 10/15 05Z 0.48 3232  97   1   2 0.01
Thu 10/15 06Z 0.42 3232  96   1   2 0.01
Thu 10/15 07Z 0.36 3232  94   2   1 0.01
Thu 10/15 08Z 0.24 3332  86   2   2 0.01
Thu 10/15 09Z 0.18 3330  77   2   2 0.01
Thu 10/15 10Z 0.11 3328  67   3   2 0.01
Thu 10/15 11Z 0.03 3427  61   3   3 0.01
Thu 10/15 12Z 0.02 3525  59   3   2 0.00
Thu 10/15 13Z 0.02 3523  58   3   2 0.00
Thu 10/15 14Z 0.03 3520  56   3   2 0.00
Thu 10/15 15Z 0.04 3517  53   3   2 0.00
Thu 10/15 16Z 0.06 0014  50   3   3 0.00
Thu 10/15 17Z 0.04 3511  47   3   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 18Z 0.02 3509  45   3   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 19Z 0.01 3507  46   4   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 20Z 0.02 3405  45   4   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 21Z 0.04 3204  44   4   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 22Z 0.04 3003  38   5   5 0.00
Thu 10/15 23Z 0.04 2802  34   5   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 00Z 0.03 2201  33   4   6 0.00
Fri 10/16 01Z 0.02 1804  35   4   6 0.00
Fri 10/16 02Z 0.02 1706  36   3   6 0.00
Fri 10/16 03Z 0.05 1810  38   4   6 0.00
Fri 10/16 04Z 0.09 1813  42  11   6 0.00
Fri 10/16 05Z 0.10 1817  46  17   6 0.00
Fri 10/16 06Z 0.16 1920  50  38   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 07Z 0.18 1924  47  78   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 08Z 0.21 1826  55  90   4 0.00
Fri 10/16 09Z 0.20 1827  69  96   4 0.00
Fri 10/16 10Z 0.15 1830  77  98   4 0.01
Fri 10/16 11Z 0.17 1835  80  99   3 0.03
Fri 10/16 12Z 0.19 1838  97  97   5 0.14
Fri 10/16 13Z 0.29 1841  98  94   6 0.12
Fri 10/16 14Z 0.39 1942  98  87   7 0.07
Fri 10/16 15Z 0.45 2040  98  91   9 0.08
Fri 10/16 16Z 0.52 2139  99  86  10 0.05
Fri 10/16 17Z 0.54 2236  99  81  12 0.04
Fri 10/16 18Z 0.57 2235  99  82  13 0.04
Fri 10/16 19Z 0.62 2233  98  89  13 0.03
Fri 10/16 20Z 0.71 2332  98  88  12 0.03
Fri 10/16 21Z 0.79 2334  98  82  12 0.02
Fri 10/16 22Z 1.05 2435  96  88  11 0.04
Fri 10/16 23Z 1.24 2434  95  91  10 0.05
Sat 10/17 00Z 1.43 2534  97  82   9 0.08
Sat 10/17 01Z 1.24 2729  96  66   6 0.05
Sat 10/17 02Z 0.78 2826  95  60   5 0.02
Sat 10/17 03Z 0.58 2927  96  47   2 0.02
Sat 10/17 04Z 0.54 3027  96  56   0 0.01
Sat 10/17 05Z 0.47 3125  95  42  -1 0.01
Sat 10/17 06Z 0.40 3226  95  42  -2 0.01
Sat 10/17 07Z 0.33 3226  95  41  -4 0.00
Sat 10/17 09Z 0.22 3328  93  41  -5 0.00
Sat 10/17 10Z 0.16 3428  91  40  -5 0.00
Sat 10/17 11Z 0.19 3428  92  38  -6 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.06 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1