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Critical Fire Weather Conditions Possible Tuesday

A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for all of northern New York and western Vermont from 11 AM to 7 PM Tuesday. Critically low relative humidity values to 20 to 25 percent, with south winds gusting up to 30 MPH will lead to critical fire weather concerns. Should any fires start, weather and fuels will make fire containment difficult. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260427_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 04/27 18Z 0.87 0800  52  46   7 0.00
Mon 04/27 19Z 0.78 0001  54  62   7 0.00
Mon 04/27 20Z 0.69 0301  57  69   7 0.00
Mon 04/27 21Z 0.45 0701  57  70   7 0.00
Mon 04/27 22Z 0.59 1002  58  65   7 0.00
Mon 04/27 23Z 0.11 1501  57  53   7 0.00
Tue 04/28 00Z 0.20 1303  57  28   7 0.00
Tue 04/28 01Z 0.26 1406  57  18   7 0.00
Tue 04/28 02Z 0.17 1509  57  16   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 03Z 0.05 1710  57  15   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 04Z 0.03 1610  57  13   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 05Z 0.04 1711  56  11   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 06Z 0.06 1711  56   9   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 07Z 0.13 1812  56   8   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 08Z 0.15 1813  57   6   6 0.00
Tue 04/28 09Z 0.09 1812  58   5   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 10Z 0.08 1713  58   5   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 11Z 0.05 1715  56   4   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 12Z 0.04 1617  55   4   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 13Z 0.05 1619  55   3   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 14Z 0.14 1619  58   3   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 15Z 0.36 1520  62   3   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 16Z 1.29 1519  65   4   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 17Z 1.96 1517  66   4   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 18Z 1.19 1617  65   6   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 19Z 1.88 1617  63   7   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 20Z 2.32 1517  63   6   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 21Z 1.10 1616  62  11   5 0.00
Tue 04/28 22Z 0.44 1618  63  62   4 0.00
Tue 04/28 23Z 0.15 1620  66  75   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 00Z 0.06 1720  68  86   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 01Z 0.09 1721  68  83   4 0.00
Wed 04/29 02Z 0.17 1821  71  80   3 0.00
Wed 04/29 03Z 0.20 1920  78  74   3 0.00
Wed 04/29 04Z 0.19 1919  77  68   3 0.00
Wed 04/29 05Z 0.24 1920  73  67   3 0.00
Wed 04/29 06Z 0.41 2022  75  62   3 0.00
Wed 04/29 07Z 0.34 2121  82  48   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 08Z 0.28 2118  85  41   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 09Z 0.28 2117  88  41   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 10Z 0.21 2113  89  34   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 11Z 0.19 2112  89  32   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 12Z 0.14 2110  89  25   7 0.00
Wed 04/29 13Z 0.12 2009  90  22   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 14Z 0.07 1810  89  18   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 15Z 0.05 1710  86  18   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 16Z 0.05 1610  82  25   6 0.00
Wed 04/29 17Z 0.10 1710  79  47   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 18Z 0.25 1609  76  67   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 19Z 1.35 1510  74  58   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 20Z 1.46 1511  75  54   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 21Z 1.99 1511  78  59   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 22Z 1.26 1413  81  52   5 0.00
Wed 04/29 23Z 0.35 1415  86  43   5 0.00
Thu 04/30 00Z 0.17 1416  88  42   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 01Z 0.15 1419  87  46   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 02Z 0.18 1422  82  43   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 03Z 0.20 1424  77  41   6 0.00
Thu 04/30 04Z 0.25 1429  89  42   6 0.01
Thu 04/30 05Z 0.30 1434  95  43   6 0.02

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.03 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1