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Heavy Rainfall Threat Continues in the Southwest on Monday; Record Warmth in the Plains and Midwest

Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel will persist over portions of the Great Basin and Southwest on Monday, bringing a potential heavy to excessive rainfall risk. Well above average and potentially record breaking temperatures will develop across the Plains and Midwest early this week, spreading into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast midweek. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261012_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 10/12 00Z 0.11 1819  97  99   7 0.00
Mon 10/12 01Z 0.13 1820  97  99   7 0.07
Mon 10/12 02Z 0.15 1920  98  99   8 0.11
Mon 10/12 03Z 0.17 2014  96  95   9 0.08
Mon 10/12 04Z 0.20 2311  95  94  10 0.03
Mon 10/12 05Z 0.22 2510  94  97  10 0.03
Mon 10/12 06Z 0.21 2710  95  94  10 0.04
Mon 10/12 07Z 0.17 2909  96  91  10 0.02
Mon 10/12 08Z 0.09 3209  97  84  10 0.01
Mon 10/12 09Z 0.06 3311  97  76   9 0.01
Mon 10/12 10Z 0.09 3315  98  64   8 0.01
Mon 10/12 11Z 0.11 3316  98  52   8 0.01
Mon 10/12 12Z 0.09 3314  96  31   9 0.01
Mon 10/12 13Z 0.09 3313  90  27  10 0.00
Mon 10/12 14Z 0.09 3315  85  27  11 0.00
Mon 10/12 15Z 0.09 3316  77  23  12 0.00
Mon 10/12 16Z 0.12 3216  72  21  12 0.00
Mon 10/12 17Z 0.16 3216  70  37  12 0.00
Mon 10/12 18Z 0.22 3116  72  66  12 0.00
Mon 10/12 19Z 0.29 3017  74  68  12 0.00
Mon 10/12 20Z 0.37 2919  83  65  11 0.00
Mon 10/12 21Z 0.41 3020  91  62  11 0.01
Mon 10/12 22Z 0.41 3021  93  68  10 0.01
Mon 10/12 23Z 0.36 3020  95  71  10 0.01
Tue 10/13 00Z 0.32 3119  97  82   9 0.01
Tue 10/13 01Z 0.26 3116  97  84   9 0.01
Tue 10/13 02Z 0.15 3213  97  85   8 0.00
Tue 10/13 03Z 0.10 3311  98  86   8 0.00
Tue 10/13 04Z 0.07 3308  97  93   8 0.00
Tue 10/13 05Z 0.04 3305  97  97   8 0.00
Tue 10/13 06Z 0.02 3201  98  99   8 0.00
Tue 10/13 07Z 0.05 1503  99  96   7 0.01
Tue 10/13 08Z 0.07 1507  99  92   7 0.03
Tue 10/13 09Z 0.05 1612  99  93   7 0.03
Tue 10/13 10Z 0.04 1617  98  88   7 0.04
Tue 10/13 11Z 0.03 1619  98  94   7 0.03
Tue 10/13 12Z 0.03 1622  97  98   8 0.05
Tue 10/13 13Z 0.04 1724  97  93   8 0.05
Tue 10/13 14Z 0.08 1827  98  96   9 0.04
Tue 10/13 15Z 0.11 1828  98  92   9 0.07
Tue 10/13 16Z 0.13 1831  98  91   9 0.06
Tue 10/13 17Z 0.19 1832  98  97   9 0.07
Tue 10/13 18Z 0.24 1931  98  92  11 0.12
Tue 10/13 19Z 0.23 1930  98  95  12 0.16
Tue 10/13 20Z 0.27 2029  97  94  13 0.03
Tue 10/13 21Z 0.31 2030  96  96  13 0.02
Tue 10/13 22Z 0.36 2130  96  89  14 0.01
Tue 10/13 23Z 0.42 2230  96  84  14 0.01
Wed 10/14 00Z 0.49 2331  98  72  14 0.03
Wed 10/14 01Z 0.52 2329  97  74  13 0.04
Wed 10/14 02Z 0.54 2329  99  65  13 0.03
Wed 10/14 03Z 0.59 2429  99  71  13 0.05
Wed 10/14 04Z 0.66 2530  99  67  14 0.07
Wed 10/14 05Z 0.71 2630  98  63  13 0.05
Wed 10/14 06Z 0.71 2627  97  73  13 0.03
Wed 10/14 07Z 0.76 2528  98  80  13 0.04
Wed 10/14 08Z 0.76 2627  98  51  13 0.07
Wed 10/14 09Z 0.80 2626  98  24  12 0.04
Wed 10/14 10Z 0.88 2627  98  16  11 0.04
Wed 10/14 11Z 0.82 2726  97  18  10 0.04

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.84 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1