National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall This Weekend in the Southern Plains and in South Florida; Bering Sea Storm in Alaska

A slow moving front will produce a threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather from New Mexico into the western High Plains through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is also expected this weekend in South Florida. The Bering Sea storm continues to bring heavy precipitation, strong winds, and minor to major coastal flooding through the weekend across western Alaska. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261025_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 10/25 18Z 0.15 2705  31   8   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 19Z 0.16 2706  31   9   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 20Z 0.17 2606  28  11   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 21Z 0.17 2507  24  13  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 22Z 0.20 2508  20  14  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 23Z 0.23 2510  19  13  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 00Z 0.27 2512  17  12  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 01Z 0.30 2613  19  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 02Z 0.33 2615  18  18  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 03Z 0.36 2717  15  17  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 04Z 0.34 2717  16  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 05Z 0.31 2716  15  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 06Z 0.28 2714  13  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 07Z 0.29 2714  13  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 08Z 0.30 2815  13  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 09Z 0.30 2814  13  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 10Z 0.31 2915  14  15  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 11Z 0.32 2915  17  17  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 12Z 0.35 2816  23  28  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 13Z 0.40 2819  34  56   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 14Z 0.45 2921  45  67   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 15Z 0.47 2922  59  76   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 16Z 0.48 2922  73  81   8 0.00
Mon 10/26 17Z 0.47 2921  87  88   8 0.00
Mon 10/26 18Z 0.45 2921  94  89   7 0.01
Mon 10/26 19Z 0.42 2920  95  89   6 0.01
Mon 10/26 20Z 0.41 3019  94  90   5 0.02
Mon 10/26 21Z 0.39 3019  95  92   4 0.02
Mon 10/26 22Z 0.40 3021  93  88   4 0.02
Mon 10/26 23Z 0.43 3124  93  86   3 0.01
Tue 10/27 00Z 0.39 3225  89  77   2 0.01
Tue 10/27 01Z 0.34 3227  88  78   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 02Z 0.23 3324  86  62   0 0.01
Tue 10/27 03Z 0.15 3322  83  47  -1 0.00
Tue 10/27 04Z 0.12 3321  83  27  -2 0.00
Tue 10/27 05Z 0.11 3322  80  13  -2 0.00
Tue 10/27 06Z 0.07 3422  76   8  -2 0.00
Tue 10/27 07Z 0.05 3422  72   4  -2 0.00
Tue 10/27 08Z 0.05 3422  65   1  -1 0.00
Tue 10/27 09Z 0.05 3422  60   1  -1 0.00
Tue 10/27 10Z 0.03 3422  54   3  -1 0.00
Tue 10/27 11Z 0.02 3423  47   5   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 12Z 0.02 3422  42   6   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 13Z 0.02 3520  42   7   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 14Z 0.01 3418  44   7   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 15Z 0.02 3416  44   7   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 16Z 0.03 3414  43   8   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 17Z 0.04 3412  42   9   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 18Z 0.04 3412  41   9   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 19Z 0.05 3312  39   8   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 20Z 0.06 3312  35   8   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 21Z 0.04 3412  29   8   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 22Z 0.05 3313  24   9   0 0.00
Tue 10/27 23Z 0.04 3413  19  10   0 0.00
Wed 10/28 00Z 0.02 3413  17  11   0 0.00
Wed 10/28 01Z 0.02 3411  17  14   1 0.00
Wed 10/28 02Z 0.02 3410  17  17   1 0.00
Wed 10/28 03Z 0.01 3409  16  20   1 0.00
Wed 10/28 04Z 0.01 3407  15  21   1 0.00
Wed 10/28 05Z 0.01 3406  15  20   2 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.11 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1