National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold Expected This Weekend

Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect across the region through 1 pm Sunday. Wind chills of 20 to 35 below zero are expected, especially this morning. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Use extra caution and dress appropriately if you plan to be outdoors. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260208_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 02/08 12Z 0.04 3420  75  65 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 13Z 0.04 3424  72  59 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 14Z 0.03 3425  70  62 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 15Z 0.03 3425  69  65 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 16Z 0.03 3426  69  65 -18 0.00
Sun 02/08 18Z 0.03 3427  64  31 -16 0.00
Sun 02/08 19Z 0.03 3426  64  20 -15 0.00
Sun 02/08 20Z 0.03 3426  65  43 -15 0.00
Sun 02/08 21Z 0.03 3426  65  52 -14 0.00
Sun 02/08 22Z 0.02 3427  61  42 -13 0.00
Sun 02/08 23Z 0.02 3428  56  45 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 00Z 0.02 3428  53  51 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 01Z 0.02 3429  51  51 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 02Z 0.02 3429  50  45 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 03Z 0.05 3429  56  41 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 04Z 0.07 3429  60  38 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 05Z 0.09 3330  60  33 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 06Z 0.11 3331  59  30 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 07Z 0.12 3332  59  28 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 08Z 0.10 3332  62  26 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 09Z 0.10 3333  64  25 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 10Z 0.09 3333  64  21 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 11Z 0.07 3433  62  16 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 12Z 0.07 3433  60  14 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 13Z 0.06 3433  59  12 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 14Z 0.05 3433  56  15 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 15Z 0.03 3432  52  28 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 16Z 0.03 3430  52  58 -10 0.00
Mon 02/09 17Z 0.04 3428  51  69 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 18Z 0.08 3427  50  65 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 19Z 0.09 3326  46  57 -10 0.00
Mon 02/09 20Z 0.10 3325  45  51 -10 0.00
Mon 02/09 21Z 0.11 3325  41  50  -9 0.00
Mon 02/09 22Z 0.10 3325  38  54  -8 0.00
Mon 02/09 23Z 0.07 3425  35  50  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 00Z 0.08 3325  35  42  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 01Z 0.07 3425  35  33  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 02Z 0.07 3324  33  35  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 03Z 0.07 3322  31  43  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 04Z 0.06 3420  30  60  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 05Z 0.06 3418  31  73  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 06Z 0.05 3416  35  77  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 07Z 0.06 3315  38  80  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 08Z 0.10 3215  39  82  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 09Z 0.07 3314  41  77  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 10Z 0.10 3213  42  78  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 11Z 0.08 3210  46  75  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 12Z 0.09 3208  47  71  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 13Z 0.10 3007  48  76  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 14Z 0.11 2806  49  77  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 15Z 0.10 2504  49  76  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 16Z 0.13 2306  51  78  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 17Z 0.12 2106  54  76  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 18Z 0.12 2008  56  69  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 19Z 0.04 1710  54  65  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 20Z 0.07 1812  56  92  -6 0.00
Tue 02/10 21Z 0.12 1813  58  92  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 22Z 0.04 1713  88  93  -9 0.00
Tue 02/10 23Z 0.05 1620  92  95  -8 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.01 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1