National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Showers and Thunderstorms from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley; Record Warmth in the Central U.S.

Heavy rain and widely scattered severe storms are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Unseasonable warmth will continue for a few more days across the Midwest, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic where several daily record highs could fall. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261015_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 10/15 06Z 0.22 3326  99   2   2 0.00
Thu 10/15 07Z 0.30 3329  98   3   1 0.01
Thu 10/15 08Z 0.28 3329  96   2   1 0.01
Thu 10/15 09Z 0.24 3329  94   1   1 0.01
Thu 10/15 10Z 0.13 3328  83   1   2 0.01
Thu 10/15 11Z 0.05 3427  65   2   3 0.01
Thu 10/15 12Z 0.02 3525  55   2   3 0.00
Thu 10/15 13Z 0.03 3523  51   2   3 0.00
Thu 10/15 14Z 0.02 3521  48   2   3 0.00
Thu 10/15 15Z 0.02 3517  47   2   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 16Z 0.02 3514  46   2   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 17Z 0.04 3511  46   3   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 18Z 0.04 0008  46   4   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 19Z 0.03 0006  46   4   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 20Z 0.02 3504  47   5   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 21Z 0.02 3303  47   5   4 0.00
Thu 10/15 22Z 0.01 3402  43   5   5 0.00
Thu 10/15 23Z 0.01 1200  40   7   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 00Z 0.02 1702  38   4   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 01Z 0.03 1707  40   7   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 02Z 0.06 1811  42   5   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 03Z 0.11 1914  46   5   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 04Z 0.14 1917  53   6   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 05Z 0.13 1819  54  11   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 06Z 0.14 1822  56  30   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 07Z 0.16 1823  62  56   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 08Z 0.14 1825  66  79   5 0.00
Fri 10/16 09Z 0.14 1830  70  93   4 0.01
Fri 10/16 10Z 0.16 1834  85  99   4 0.02
Fri 10/16 11Z 0.17 1836  96  99   6 0.12
Fri 10/16 12Z 0.24 1839  97  98   7 0.06
Fri 10/16 13Z 0.32 1941  98  98   7 0.18
Fri 10/16 14Z 0.41 1943  98  98   8 0.30
Fri 10/16 15Z 0.49 2043  99  95  10 0.10
Fri 10/16 16Z 0.53 2140  99  69  11 0.05
Fri 10/16 17Z 0.54 2135  99  82  12 0.04
Fri 10/16 18Z 0.59 2233  98  82  13 0.03
Fri 10/16 19Z 0.65 2231  98  74  13 0.02
Fri 10/16 20Z 0.81 2333  98  55  12 0.01
Fri 10/16 21Z 1.05 2334  97  41  11 0.02
Fri 10/16 22Z 1.23 2435  97  36  11 0.02
Fri 10/16 23Z 1.57 2535  96  44   9 0.05
Sat 10/17 00Z 1.73 2733  94  31   6 0.04
Sat 10/17 01Z 1.31 2729  91  45   4 0.01
Sat 10/17 02Z 1.04 2928  93  42   2 0.01
Sat 10/17 03Z 0.76 3028  96  34   0 0.01
Sat 10/17 04Z 0.72 3028  95  18  -2 0.01
Sat 10/17 05Z 0.64 3127  94  34  -3 0.01
Sat 10/17 06Z 0.64 3228  96  38  -4 0.00
Sat 10/17 07Z 0.70 3228  97  44  -5 0.01
Sat 10/17 08Z 0.61 3229  96  44  -6 0.01
Sat 10/17 09Z 0.42 3330  94  42  -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 10Z 0.43 3330  95  41  -6 0.01
Sat 10/17 11Z 0.43 3329  96  40  -6 0.01
Sat 10/17 12Z 0.42 3328  97  38  -7 0.01
Sat 10/17 13Z 0.43 3327  97  28  -7 0.01
Sat 10/17 14Z 0.42 3326  97  17  -8 0.01
Sat 10/17 15Z 0.35 3324  96  11  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 16Z 0.34 3223  95   7  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 17Z 0.42 3224  94   3  -9 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.24 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1