National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Extreme Heat in the Southwest; Severe Weather in the Northern Plains; Heavy Rain in the East

Extreme heat continues across the Southwest as temperatures may top 120 degrees. The heat may expand across the West and south-central U.S. into the middle of the month. Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail will be the primary hazards today across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest. Rainfall could be locally heavy across the Eastern U.S. today. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260803_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 08/03 18Z 0.77 2321  98  95  15 0.00
Mon 08/03 19Z 0.94 2524  98  91  14 0.07
Mon 08/03 20Z 1.03 2625  98  87  13 0.05
Mon 08/03 21Z 0.99 2726  98  91  12 0.06
Mon 08/03 22Z 0.91 2925  97  77  12 0.02
Mon 08/03 23Z 0.88 3027  97  63  11 0.02
Tue 08/04 00Z 0.78 3027  98  39  11 0.02
Tue 08/04 01Z 0.63 3128  95  52  10 0.02
Tue 08/04 02Z 0.37 3230  84  46  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 03Z 0.35 3229  77  23  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 04Z 0.58 3126  86  13  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 05Z 0.74 3026  83   3  10 0.00
Tue 08/04 06Z 0.73 2924  80   3  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 07Z 0.77 2924  74   4  11 0.00
Tue 08/04 08Z 0.74 2924  68   3  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 09Z 0.78 3025  66   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 10Z 0.77 3026  64   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 11Z 0.64 3025  59   2  12 0.00
Tue 08/04 12Z 0.54 3024  55   2  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 13Z 0.46 3022  53   2  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 14Z 0.43 3018  52   2  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 15Z 0.42 2914  52   2  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 16Z 0.41 2912  53   2  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 17Z 0.41 2809  56   2  13 0.00
Tue 08/04 18Z 0.46 2609  60   2  14 0.00
Tue 08/04 19Z 0.58 2608  62   2  14 0.00
Tue 08/04 20Z 0.55 2607  62   3  14 0.00
Tue 08/04 21Z 0.34 2606  61   3  15 0.00
Tue 08/04 22Z 0.25 2506  59   4  15 0.00
Tue 08/04 23Z 0.18 2505  54   4  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 00Z 0.16 2405  49   5  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 01Z 0.15 2305  46   6  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 02Z 0.18 2207  45   7  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 03Z 0.16 2207  44   8  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 04Z 0.16 2207  41   8  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 05Z 0.14 2206  37   8  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 06Z 0.15 2306  37   7  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 07Z 0.15 2406  38   6  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 08Z 0.15 2505  40   6  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 09Z 0.15 2505  43   6  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 10Z 0.16 2505  47   7  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 11Z 0.13 2504  45   7  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 12Z 0.13 2604  46   8  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 13Z 0.15 2605  51   9  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 14Z 0.16 2605  56   8  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 15Z 0.14 2304  57   6  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 16Z 0.15 2204  58   4  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 17Z 0.28 2206  59   2  15 0.00
Wed 08/05 18Z 0.43 2106  56   1  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 19Z 0.46 2208  51   1  16 0.00
Wed 08/05 20Z 0.33 2209  45   1  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 21Z 0.34 2309  44   2  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 22Z 0.38 2310  51   5  17 0.00
Wed 08/05 23Z 0.40 2411  59  12  17 0.00
Thu 08/06 00Z 0.40 2411  64  21  17 0.00
Thu 08/06 01Z 0.38 2410  67  26  17 0.00
Thu 08/06 02Z 0.34 2410  71  34  17 0.00
Thu 08/06 03Z 0.33 2410  73  49  17 0.00
Thu 08/06 04Z 0.32 2310  75  63  17 0.00
Thu 08/06 05Z 0.29 2311  77  73  17 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.26 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1