National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Severe Weather and Flooding Threat in the Central U.S. and Mid-Atlantic; Dangerous Heat in the West and Southern Plains

Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are expected across the central High Plains into parts of the central and southern Plains and in the the Mid-Atlantic today. Intense, dangerous heat will persist across the West, Southwest, and Southern Plains into the end of the week. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions expected in the Great Basin and Four Corners region. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260623_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 06/23 00Z 0.28 1416  93  99   8 0.00
Tue 06/23 01Z 0.29 1421  94  99   9 0.03
Tue 06/23 02Z 0.15 1520  96  93  10 0.03
Tue 06/23 03Z 0.05 1620  97  95  10 0.02
Tue 06/23 04Z 0.07 1719  98  98  11 0.03
Tue 06/23 05Z 0.11 1815  99  99  11 0.03
Tue 06/23 06Z 0.10 1910  99  98  11 0.03
Tue 06/23 07Z 0.07 1907  99  96  11 0.03
Tue 06/23 08Z 0.05 1804  99  95  11 0.03
Tue 06/23 09Z 0.05 1902  99  92  10 0.03
Tue 06/23 10Z 0.04 2801  99  86  10 0.01
Tue 06/23 11Z 0.05 3204  99  79  10 0.01
Tue 06/23 12Z 0.04 3407  99  70  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 13Z 0.04 3409  97  60  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 14Z 0.03 3409  95  40  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 15Z 0.03 3410  93  24  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 16Z 0.04 3411  90  15  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 17Z 0.04 3412  88  12  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 18Z 0.08 3412  86   8  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 19Z 0.11 3412  86   6  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 20Z 0.17 3312  86   6  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 21Z 0.15 3313  85   5  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 22Z 0.20 3314  86   6  10 0.00
Tue 06/23 23Z 0.18 3315  89   5  10 0.00
Wed 06/24 00Z 0.21 3318  93   7  10 0.00
Wed 06/24 01Z 0.24 3319  91  11  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 02Z 0.21 3318  88  10  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 03Z 0.15 3319  85  12  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 04Z 0.14 3321  90  15  10 0.01
Wed 06/24 05Z 0.10 3421  94  20   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 06Z 0.07 3420  94  22   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 07Z 0.06 3418  93  21   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 08Z 0.07 3417  91  21   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 09Z 0.14 3317  89  24   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 10Z 0.21 3217  87  27   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 11Z 0.29 3118  85  28   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 12Z 0.34 3118  87  30   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 13Z 0.38 3118  87  30   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 14Z 0.55 3118  86  34   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 15Z 1.06 3017  86  34   7 0.00
Wed 06/24 16Z 3.32 2915  86  37   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 17Z 5.10 2815  88  48   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 18Z 5.34 2815  86  44   8 0.00
Wed 06/24 19Z 5.87 2815  85  43   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 20Z 4.00 2816  85  40   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 21Z 3.35 2917  85  40   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 22Z 2.62 3018  83  41   9 0.00
Wed 06/24 23Z 1.31 3018  83  38   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 00Z 0.95 3019  83  39   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 01Z 1.12 3018  84  36   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 02Z 0.97 3018  88  36   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 03Z 0.84 3019  87  35   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 04Z 0.67 3019  84  38   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 05Z 0.49 3118  82  38   9 0.00
Thu 06/25 06Z 0.36 3217  79  38  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 07Z 0.31 3215  78  40  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 08Z 0.21 3313  77  39  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 09Z 0.17 3311  77  40  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 10Z 0.12 3307  76  39  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 11Z 0.10 3305  76  39  10 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.32 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1