
Significant river flooding is forecast along the St. John’s and the Peace rivers through the end of the week as flood waters will be slow to recede. Periods of rainfall and thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday and Friday. In Puerto Rico, increased moisture in the Atlantic will produce heavy rainfall for the island. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261103_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 11/03 06Z 0.40 2813 57 81 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 07Z 0.41 2813 56 81 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 08Z 0.36 2812 54 82 10 0.00
Tue 11/03 09Z 0.31 2710 54 80 10 0.00
Tue 11/03 10Z 0.32 2609 57 87 10 0.00
Tue 11/03 11Z 0.35 2610 61 88 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 12Z 0.39 2511 65 95 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 13Z 0.42 2412 64 94 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 14Z 0.41 2412 61 96 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 15Z 0.42 2313 59 95 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 16Z 0.47 2215 61 89 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 17Z 0.53 2317 64 87 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 18Z 0.55 2317 68 96 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 19Z 0.56 2218 74 98 8 0.00
Tue 11/03 20Z 0.62 2220 81 95 8 0.00
Tue 11/03 21Z 0.73 2323 83 91 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 22Z 0.68 2325 90 83 9 0.00
Tue 11/03 23Z 0.69 2425 91 77 10 0.01
Wed 11/04 00Z 0.65 2524 93 67 10 0.01
Wed 11/04 01Z 0.66 2624 93 53 10 0.01
Wed 11/04 02Z 0.63 2723 89 46 10 0.00
Wed 11/04 03Z 0.66 2624 86 44 10 0.00
Wed 11/04 04Z 0.68 2623 85 42 10 0.00
Wed 11/04 05Z 0.67 2523 83 40 10 0.00
Wed 11/04 06Z 0.72 2525 84 42 10 0.00
Wed 11/04 07Z 0.72 2525 78 41 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 08Z 0.71 2525 71 41 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 09Z 0.74 2526 69 60 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 10Z 0.74 2526 69 73 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 11Z 0.71 2526 70 69 11 0.00
Wed 11/04 12Z 0.71 2526 71 70 12 0.00
Wed 11/04 13Z 0.70 2526 67 74 12 0.00
Wed 11/04 14Z 0.65 2525 64 71 12 0.00
Wed 11/04 15Z 0.60 2523 61 65 12 0.00
Wed 11/04 16Z 0.54 2521 58 62 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 17Z 0.50 2519 53 61 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 18Z 0.48 2418 49 45 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 19Z 0.46 2418 49 40 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 20Z 0.46 2418 54 42 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 21Z 0.49 2419 58 44 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 22Z 0.51 2420 61 46 13 0.00
Wed 11/04 23Z 0.52 2421 63 40 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 00Z 0.49 2421 63 41 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 01Z 0.44 2419 59 43 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 02Z 0.42 2419 54 46 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 03Z 0.44 2420 50 51 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 04Z 0.48 2322 45 57 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 05Z 0.51 2324 39 57 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 06Z 0.53 2326 36 39 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 07Z 0.56 2328 38 30 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 08Z 0.55 2328 42 31 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 09Z 0.53 2228 45 34 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 10Z 0.52 2228 47 38 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 11Z 0.55 2230 47 41 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 12Z 0.61 2232 52 57 14 0.00
Thu 11/05 13Z 0.65 2234 58 66 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 14Z 0.61 2233 68 63 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 15Z 0.57 2230 74 76 13 0.00
Thu 11/05 16Z 0.58 2229 82 90 12 0.00
Thu 11/05 17Z 0.66 2229 96 92 11 0.01
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.04 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1