National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Lake Effect Snow Warning and Winter Weather Advisories in effect for southern St. Lawrence and Franklin Counties through 7 PM Friday

Lake effect snow showers will prevail through tonight, with total snow accumulations between 4 and 11 inches possible in the most persistent lake snow bands across portions of northern New York. Holiday travel be very hazardous at times, with poor visibilities in snow and blowing snow. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20251123_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 11/23 18Z 0.27 2209  97  87  -5 0.00
Sun 11/23 19Z 0.25 2209  97  93  -5 0.01
Sun 11/23 20Z 0.26 2209  98  93  -5 0.02
Sun 11/23 21Z 0.32 2210  99  93  -5 0.02
Sun 11/23 22Z 0.33 2310  99  94  -5 0.02
Sun 11/23 23Z 0.31 2510  98  87  -4 0.02
Mon 11/24 00Z 0.30 2710  98  74  -4 0.01
Mon 11/24 01Z 0.27 2810  96  62  -4 0.01
Mon 11/24 02Z 0.27 2910  95  72  -4 0.00
Mon 11/24 03Z 0.31 2912  95  72  -4 0.00
Mon 11/24 04Z 0.33 2913  96  72  -4 0.00
Mon 11/24 05Z 0.35 2913  97  74  -5 0.01
Mon 11/24 06Z 0.39 3015  96  76  -5 0.01
Mon 11/24 07Z 0.44 3016  96  76  -5 0.01
Mon 11/24 08Z 0.46 3018  97  81  -5 0.01
Mon 11/24 09Z 0.45 3119  98  81  -5 0.02
Mon 11/24 10Z 0.46 3121  97  76  -5 0.01
Mon 11/24 11Z 0.52 3123  97  66  -6 0.01
Mon 11/24 12Z 0.53 3123  97  52  -6 0.01
Mon 11/24 13Z 0.52 3123  97  46  -6 0.01
Mon 11/24 14Z 0.50 3123  96  50  -6 0.01
Mon 11/24 15Z 0.38 3121  94  47  -6 0.00
Mon 11/24 16Z 0.42 3120  94  18  -6 0.00
Mon 11/24 17Z 0.44 3017  94   2  -6 0.00
Mon 11/24 18Z 0.45 2916  90   2  -5 0.00
Mon 11/24 19Z 0.33 2916  78   8  -4 0.00
Mon 11/24 20Z 0.31 3017  67  11  -2 0.00
Mon 11/24 21Z 0.25 3017  56  22  -1 0.00
Mon 11/24 22Z 0.25 3017  44  32   0 0.00
Mon 11/24 23Z 0.27 2917  39  56   0 0.00
Tue 11/25 00Z 0.28 2916  33  70   0 0.00
Tue 11/25 01Z 0.30 2816  23  85   1 0.00
Tue 11/25 02Z 0.35 2817  18  91   1 0.00
Tue 11/25 03Z 0.36 2715  15  91   1 0.00
Tue 11/25 04Z 0.39 2517  14  93   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 05Z 0.48 2421  13  92   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 06Z 0.56 2426  15  91   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 07Z 0.62 2429  16  88   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 08Z 0.64 2529  15  86   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 09Z 0.65 2529  15  85   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 10Z 0.63 2528  16  90   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 11Z 0.60 2526  18  82   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 12Z 0.56 2524  23  64   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 13Z 0.52 2522  28  69   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 14Z 0.43 2518  29  82   2 0.00
Tue 11/25 15Z 0.39 2417  35  75   3 0.00
Tue 11/25 16Z 0.39 2419  38  65   3 0.00
Tue 11/25 17Z 0.41 2320  45  64   3 0.00
Tue 11/25 18Z 0.44 2321  47  71   3 0.00
Tue 11/25 19Z 0.42 2320  46  64   3 0.00
Tue 11/25 20Z 0.38 2319  48  60   4 0.00
Tue 11/25 21Z 0.36 2319  54  65   4 0.00
Tue 11/25 22Z 0.38 2319  54  61   4 0.00
Tue 11/25 23Z 0.38 2319  62  63   4 0.00
Wed 11/26 00Z 0.39 2319  73  65   3 0.00
Wed 11/26 01Z 0.39 2319  81  77   3 0.01
Wed 11/26 02Z 0.41 2320  85  94   3 0.01
Wed 11/26 03Z 0.38 2219  90  98   3 0.02
Wed 11/26 04Z 0.31 2117  94  98   3 0.01
Wed 11/26 05Z 0.24 2017  94  98   3 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.28 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1