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Hazardous Coastal Conditions for the Mid-Atlantic; Storm System Approaching Southern Alaska

A Nor'easter will create hazardous marine and coastal conditions along the Mid-Atlantic coast through mid-week, with significant coastal flooding and beach erosion possible. Meanwhile, another strong storm system is forecast to bring high winds and heavy precipitation to portions of southern Alaska. Elsewhere, relatively benign weather is expected through the first half of the work week. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261019_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 10/19 06Z 0.19 2709  48  19   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 07Z 0.19 2810  50  19   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 08Z 0.17 2909  47  18   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 10Z 0.12 3007  37  16   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 12Z 0.11 2905  34  17   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 14Z 0.11 2604  34  18   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 15Z 0.13 2505  33  17   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 16Z 0.15 2606  31  15   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 17Z 0.17 2707  29  13  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 18Z 0.17 2808  28  13  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 19Z 0.18 2909  24  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 20Z 0.17 2909  23  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 21Z 0.16 3010  22  16  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 22Z 0.16 3111  25  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 23Z 0.15 3213  31  14  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 00Z 0.14 3214  37  15   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 01Z 0.08 3316  40  16   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 02Z 0.03 3516  39  14   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 03Z 0.05 3516  40  11   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 04Z 0.07 3517  45  10   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 05Z 0.09 0019  51   9   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 06Z 0.12 0019  54  12   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 07Z 0.14 0119  50  17   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 08Z 0.16 0121  40  18   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 09Z 0.19 0122  33  14   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 10Z 0.22 0123  30  10   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 11Z 0.22 0124  28   5   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 12Z 0.23 0124  27   2   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 13Z 0.24 0224  27   3   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 14Z 0.24 0223  29   4   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 15Z 0.22 0222  31   5   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 16Z 0.19 0120  34   6   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 17Z 0.18 0119  41   6   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 18Z 0.19 0119  48   6   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 19Z 0.21 0119  51   6   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 20Z 0.22 0119  51   7   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 21Z 0.22 0120  49   8   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 22Z 0.25 0222  47   8   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 23Z 0.27 0223  42   8   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 00Z 0.29 0323  38   8   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 01Z 0.29 0322  36   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 02Z 0.29 0321  35   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 03Z 0.27 0419  34   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 04Z 0.26 0416  34   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 05Z 0.23 0514  34  10   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 06Z 0.19 0511  32   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 07Z 0.16 0410  28   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 08Z 0.17 0410  28   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 09Z 0.17 0410  29   9   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 10Z 0.17 0411  28   8   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 11Z 0.17 0511  28   8   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 12Z 0.17 0511  27   8   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 13Z 0.17 0510  28   8   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 14Z 0.17 0510  29   8   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 15Z 0.16 0609  31   8   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 16Z 0.16 0608  32   8   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 17Z 0.15 0708  33   8   8 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1