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Extreme Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.; Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.

Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop across the Great Basin and Southwest today, and exceptionally dry and windy conditions will promote rapid wildfire spread through the weekend. Scattered severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible across parts of the Ozark Plateau into lower Ohio Valley and parts of the northern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260628_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 06/28 00Z 0.03 3406  86  65  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 01Z 0.02 3405  85  63  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 02Z 0.07 0005  82  66  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 03Z 0.10 0105  79  68  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 04Z 0.10 0205  77  72  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 05Z 0.09 0105  76  76  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 06Z 0.06 0004  74  76  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 07Z 0.10 0106  71  63  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 08Z 0.09 0107  67  48  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 09Z 0.09 0008  64  41  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 10Z 0.11 0009  62  35  12 0.00
Sun 06/28 11Z 0.14 0110  64  30  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 12Z 0.19 0110  67  28  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 13Z 0.28 0209  72  29  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 14Z 0.41 0108  76  33  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 15Z 0.94 0106  78  31  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 16Z 1.16 0105  78  34  11 0.00
Sun 06/28 17Z 0.77 0003  76  43  12 0.03
Sun 06/28 18Z 0.33 3403  74  40  12 0.03
Sun 06/28 19Z 0.37 3304  75  39  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 20Z 0.47 3305  75  32  12 0.01
Sun 06/28 21Z 0.28 3306  73  23  13 0.01
Sun 06/28 22Z 0.21 3307  68  28  13 0.00
Sun 06/28 23Z 0.09 3307  61  26  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 00Z 0.03 3408  55  26  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 01Z 0.09 0008  54  20  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 02Z 0.13 0008  55  18  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 03Z 0.12 0008  53  19  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 04Z 0.08 0008  53  22  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 05Z 0.13 0008  53  22  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 06Z 0.16 0108  56  20  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 07Z 0.14 0108  58  20  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 08Z 0.13 0008  60  18  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 09Z 0.11 0008  63  14  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 10Z 0.09 3508  66  14  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 11Z 0.11 0008  68  11  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 12Z 0.08 3507  70  10  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 13Z 0.11 3506  72   9  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 14Z 0.30 3505  72   5  11 0.00
Mon 06/29 15Z 0.23 3403  73   5  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 16Z 0.31 3303  74  11  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 17Z 0.62 3103  73  13  12 0.00
Mon 06/29 18Z 0.86 3104  69   9  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 19Z 0.89 3004  65   6  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 20Z 0.98 3004  61   4  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 21Z 0.98 3006  58   5  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 22Z 0.42 3005  59   8  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 23Z 0.23 3004  62  11  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 00Z 0.23 2903  65  10  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 01Z 0.29 2704  69  15  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 02Z 0.38 2605  71  18  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 03Z 0.49 2507  73  21  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 04Z 0.62 2508  74  20  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 05Z 0.71 2509  76  21  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 06Z 0.74 2610  75  22  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 07Z 0.75 2511  77  20  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 08Z 0.72 2611  75  22  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 09Z 0.61 2611  74  27  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 10Z 0.55 2610  74  30  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 11Z 0.57 2611  74  32  13 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.09 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1