
Additional river rises are expected with minor and localized ice jam flooding possible late tonight into Thursday. Also, minor open water flooding is forecasted on the Ausable River and Otter Creek, with Action Stage possible on the Lamoille, Winooski and Missisquoi Rivers on Thursday. The threat for flooding ends by Thursday night. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260311_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 03/11 12Z 0.06 1625 84 86 9 0.00
Wed 03/11 13Z 0.06 1629 87 85 10 0.00
Wed 03/11 14Z 0.03 1730 83 78 11 0.00
Wed 03/11 15Z 0.06 1733 82 94 11 0.01
Wed 03/11 16Z 0.11 1834 82 93 11 0.02
Wed 03/11 17Z 0.17 1833 82 90 11 0.01
Wed 03/11 18Z 0.22 1935 80 79 11 0.00
Wed 03/11 19Z 0.26 1935 79 55 12 0.00
Wed 03/11 20Z 0.27 1934 79 74 12 0.00
Wed 03/11 21Z 0.32 1938 81 93 12 0.00
Wed 03/11 22Z 0.41 2039 91 86 11 0.01
Wed 03/11 23Z 0.50 2040 93 80 11 0.00
Thu 03/12 00Z 0.56 2041 93 85 12 0.01
Thu 03/12 02Z 0.62 2140 92 93 12 0.01
Thu 03/12 03Z 0.83 2238 96 94 10 0.01
Thu 03/12 04Z 1.03 2333 95 93 9 0.13
Thu 03/12 05Z 0.70 2325 87 86 10 0.14
Thu 03/12 06Z 0.76 2325 93 81 9 0.15
Thu 03/12 07Z 0.91 2328 97 64 8 0.01
Thu 03/12 08Z 0.92 2328 98 84 8 0.03
Thu 03/12 09Z 1.70 2631 98 88 4 0.04
Thu 03/12 10Z 0.92 2633 95 54 0 0.12
Thu 03/12 11Z 0.77 2731 89 56 -2 0.06
Thu 03/12 12Z 0.85 2731 89 41 -5 0.01
Thu 03/12 14Z 0.92 2829 89 6 -8 0.00
Thu 03/12 15Z 0.98 2827 89 12 -8 0.00
Thu 03/12 16Z 1.69 2727 92 4 -10 0.00
Thu 03/12 17Z 4.05 2826 91 3 -10 0.00
Thu 03/12 18Z 5.03 2826 89 11 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 19Z 3.61 2923 87 26 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 20Z 3.09 2921 87 16 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 21Z 2.30 2920 87 27 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 22Z 1.01 2919 87 37 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 23Z 0.87 3020 87 42 -12 0.00
Fri 03/13 00Z 1.02 2922 88 52 -12 0.00
Fri 03/13 01Z 1.22 2923 90 56 -12 0.00
Fri 03/13 02Z 1.25 2924 91 57 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 03Z 1.13 2923 92 55 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 04Z 1.05 2922 94 53 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 05Z 1.12 2923 95 54 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 06Z 1.07 2921 95 49 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 07Z 0.92 2919 95 35 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 08Z 0.83 2816 96 25 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 09Z 0.63 2814 94 7 -12 0.00
Fri 03/13 10Z 0.64 2714 93 3 -12 0.00
Fri 03/13 11Z 0.41 2612 87 2 -11 0.00
Fri 03/13 12Z 0.27 2509 77 4 -10 0.00
Fri 03/13 13Z 0.16 2108 66 8 -10 0.00
Fri 03/13 14Z 0.19 2011 56 12 -9 0.00
Fri 03/13 15Z 0.15 1814 45 22 -8 0.00
Fri 03/13 16Z 0.21 1915 44 60 -8 0.00
Fri 03/13 17Z 0.43 1918 48 87 -8 0.00
Fri 03/13 18Z 1.76 1821 59 90 -9 0.00
Fri 03/13 19Z 0.14 1726 93 88 -9 0.01
Fri 03/13 21Z 0.48 1932 94 87 -8 0.01
Fri 03/13 22Z 0.52 1931 91 73 -8 0.02
Fri 03/13 23Z 0.55 1931 90 90 -7 0.06
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.87 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1