National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold Expected This Weekend

An Extreme Cold Watch remains in effect for all of northern New York and Vermont for Saturday into Sunday afternoon. Wind chills of 20 to 40 below zero are possible, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Prepare now for the extreme cold, especially if you plan to be outdoors. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260205_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 02/05 18Z 0.33 3106  82  14 -14 0.00
Thu 02/05 19Z 0.33 3107  79  14 -13 0.00
Thu 02/05 20Z 0.20 3108  75  14 -13 0.00
Thu 02/05 21Z 0.18 3109  71  14 -12 0.00
Thu 02/05 22Z 0.14 3109  69  14 -12 0.00
Thu 02/05 23Z 0.13 3109  68  14 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 00Z 0.09 3208  68  15 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 01Z 0.06 3207  67  18 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 02Z 0.02 3406  67  21 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 03Z 0.02 3505  66  24 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 04Z 0.02 0101  65  24 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 06Z 0.04 1404  63  19 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 07Z 0.03 1504  59  17 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 08Z 0.01 1704  57  14 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 09Z 0.02 1709  61  10 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 10Z 0.03 1712  62   8 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 11Z 0.05 1811  63   8 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 12Z 0.11 1911  66   9 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 13Z 0.13 2011  72  14 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 14Z 0.14 2010  77  37 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 15Z 0.14 2108  77  66 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 16Z 0.10 2006  77  84 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 17Z 0.05 1806  80  87 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 18Z 0.07 1708  85  88 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 19Z 0.10 1808  88  87 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 20Z 0.08 1807  91  86 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 21Z 0.10 1907  91  84 -12 0.00
Fri 02/06 22Z 0.14 1907  90  83 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 23Z 0.17 2008  89  86 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 00Z 0.19 2009  91  89 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 01Z 0.20 2009  93  88 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 02Z 0.22 2010  93  89 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 04Z 0.20 2010  92  88 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 05Z 0.21 2010  92  87 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 06Z 0.20 2010  92  87 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 07Z 0.17 2009  92  86 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 08Z 0.15 2008  92  86 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 09Z 0.11 2006  92  86 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 10Z 0.09 2004  92  85 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 11Z 0.07 2102  92  84 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 12Z 0.06 2601  92  84 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 13Z 0.08 3204  92  83 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 14Z 0.06 3408  91  81 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 15Z 0.08 3411  89  81 -13 0.02
Sat 02/07 16Z 0.06 3514  89  81 -13 0.02
Sat 02/07 17Z 0.04 3415  86  82 -14 0.02
Sat 02/07 18Z 0.04 3416  85  83 -14 0.01
Sat 02/07 19Z 0.06 3318  84  83 -15 0.01
Sat 02/07 20Z 0.08 3321  84  81 -16 0.01
Sat 02/07 21Z 0.10 3323  84  82 -17 0.01
Sat 02/07 23Z 0.12 3327  85  79 -18 0.01
Sun 02/08 00Z 0.12 3328  84  74 -18 0.01
Sun 02/08 01Z 0.13 3328  83  69 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 03Z 0.15 3327  82  64 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 05Z 0.14 3326  80  65 -21 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.22 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1