National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold Expected This Weekend

Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories remain in effect across the region through 1 pm Sunday. Wind chills of 20 to 35 below zero are expected, especially this morning. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Use extra caution and dress appropriately if you plan to be outdoors. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260208_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 02/08 00Z 0.17 3321  80  59 -23 0.00
Sun 02/08 01Z 0.22 3225  81  57 -22 0.00
Sun 02/08 02Z 0.22 3226  80  55 -22 0.00
Sun 02/08 03Z 0.17 3326  77  55 -22 0.00
Sun 02/08 04Z 0.13 3326  78  55 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 05Z 0.12 3325  80  55 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 06Z 0.11 3324  79  58 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 07Z 0.10 3323  77  61 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 08Z 0.08 3323  76  64 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 09Z 0.07 3323  76  66 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 10Z 0.07 3323  77  67 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 11Z 0.07 3324  78  66 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 12Z 0.05 3425  78  65 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 13Z 0.03 3425  78  69 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 14Z 0.03 3425  76  68 -18 0.00
Sun 02/08 15Z 0.02 3425  76  52 -18 0.00
Sun 02/08 16Z 0.03 3425  75  49 -17 0.00
Sun 02/08 17Z 0.03 3425  74  52 -17 0.00
Sun 02/08 18Z 0.03 3424  71  36 -16 0.00
Sun 02/08 19Z 0.03 3425  65  35 -14 0.00
Sun 02/08 20Z 0.03 3425  64  42 -14 0.00
Sun 02/08 21Z 0.03 3426  64  46 -13 0.00
Sun 02/08 22Z 0.03 3427  64  44 -12 0.00
Sun 02/08 23Z 0.03 3528  65  47 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 00Z 0.03 3429  69  44 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 01Z 0.02 3429  68  33 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 02Z 0.03 3429  66  26 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 03Z 0.05 3429  63  27 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 04Z 0.07 3430  63  33 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 05Z 0.08 3331  61  38 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 06Z 0.10 3332  59  36 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 07Z 0.11 3333  63  32 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 08Z 0.11 3333  66  29 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 09Z 0.11 3333  65  25 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 10Z 0.11 3334  65  23 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 11Z 0.10 3334  64  21 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 12Z 0.07 3434  59  17 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 13Z 0.06 3435  57  13 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 14Z 0.05 3434  55  10 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 15Z 0.04 3432  53   8 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 16Z 0.06 3431  52  11 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 17Z 0.07 3429  49  22 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 18Z 0.11 3328  49  38 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 19Z 0.11 3328  47  52 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 20Z 0.12 3326  44  55 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 21Z 0.11 3325  41  49 -10 0.00
Mon 02/09 22Z 0.12 3326  40  48  -9 0.00
Mon 02/09 23Z 0.13 3326  37  52  -9 0.00
Tue 02/10 00Z 0.10 3325  34  54  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 01Z 0.08 3325  30  56  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 02Z 0.07 3424  24  57  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 03Z 0.06 3423  21  64  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 04Z 0.05 3420  19  61  -8 0.00
Tue 02/10 05Z 0.04 3418  17  61  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 06Z 0.08 3318  17  70  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 07Z 0.09 3317  17  67  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 08Z 0.12 3216  18  68  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 09Z 0.11 3214  18  70  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 10Z 0.12 3112  19  75  -7 0.00
Tue 02/10 11Z 0.10 3110  20  72  -7 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1