National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold Expected This Weekend

Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories are in effect across the region for this weekend. Wind chills of 20 to 40 below zero are possible, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Prepare now for the extreme cold, especially if you plan to be outdoors. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260207_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 02/07 00Z 0.10 1810  82  77 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 01Z 0.21 1912  85  79 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 02Z 0.30 2013  88  85 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 03Z 0.32 2112  89  87 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 04Z 0.36 2112  88  86 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 05Z 0.31 2111  89  85 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 08Z 0.14 2205  91  84 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 09Z 0.09 2103  91  83 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 10Z 0.07 2302  92  84 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 11Z 0.07 2802  92  84 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 12Z 0.07 3306  91  81 -13 0.01
Sat 02/07 13Z 0.14 3410  90  81 -14 0.02
Sat 02/07 14Z 0.07 3414  89  81 -15 0.03
Sat 02/07 15Z 0.07 3315  86  82 -16 0.02
Sat 02/07 16Z 0.09 3317  84  82 -17 0.01
Sat 02/07 17Z 0.11 3319  83  82 -18 0.01
Sat 02/07 18Z 0.12 3320  82  82 -18 0.01
Sat 02/07 19Z 0.12 3320  83  82 -19 0.01
Sat 02/07 20Z 0.13 3322  83  82 -19 0.01
Sat 02/07 21Z 0.14 3323  83  80 -20 0.01
Sat 02/07 22Z 0.13 3324  83  80 -20 0.00
Sat 02/07 23Z 0.13 3325  83  80 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 00Z 0.13 3325  83  80 -21 0.00
Sun 02/08 01Z 0.11 3325  83  79 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 02Z 0.09 3325  85  77 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 03Z 0.09 3324  85  75 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 04Z 0.08 3324  84  74 -20 0.00
Sun 02/08 05Z 0.07 3323  83  74 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 06Z 0.07 3323  83  76 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 07Z 0.08 3323  83  79 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 08Z 0.07 3324  81  81 -19 0.00
Sun 02/08 09Z 0.05 3424  79  82 -18 0.00
Sun 02/08 10Z 0.03 3425  80  80 -18 0.00
Sun 02/08 11Z 0.02 3426  81  79 -17 0.00
Sun 02/08 12Z 0.03 3526  81  80 -17 0.00
Sun 02/08 13Z 0.02 3527  76  67 -16 0.00
Sun 02/08 14Z 0.03 3527  68  44 -16 0.00
Sun 02/08 15Z 0.02 3526  64  29 -15 0.00
Sun 02/08 16Z 0.02 3426  64  42 -15 0.00
Sun 02/08 17Z 0.02 3426  62  38 -14 0.00
Sun 02/08 18Z 0.03 3426  60  46 -13 0.00
Sun 02/08 19Z 0.04 3426  59  39 -13 0.00
Sun 02/08 20Z 0.05 3428  57  31 -12 0.00
Sun 02/08 21Z 0.06 3430  53  31 -12 0.00
Sun 02/08 22Z 0.05 3431  50  35 -11 0.00
Sun 02/08 23Z 0.03 3431  47  31 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 00Z 0.03 3431  44  30 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 01Z 0.03 3431  44  22 -11 0.00
Mon 02/09 02Z 0.05 3430  49  32 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 03Z 0.07 3429  56  36 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 04Z 0.09 3329  65  33 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 05Z 0.11 3330  68  29 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 06Z 0.12 3330  67  29 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 07Z 0.11 3330  64  26 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 08Z 0.10 3331  63  19 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 09Z 0.09 3330  58   9 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 10Z 0.08 3329  56   4 -12 0.00
Mon 02/09 11Z 0.10 3329  53   8 -12 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.19 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1