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Risks of Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall in the Central U.S.; Fire Weather Concerns in Alaska and Southwest

An expansive storm system will bring widespread storms with a threat for flash flooding and severe weather to much of the central to eastern U.S. into early this week. Critical fire weather conditions are expected across interior Alaska this weekend. Elevated fire conditions also expected in the Southwest U.S.. Conditions will remain uncomfortably hot across the southern Plains and the Southeast. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260621_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 06/21 00Z 0.57 2913  92  80   9 0.00
Sun 06/21 01Z 0.64 2816  95  88   8 0.05
Sun 06/21 02Z 0.62 2918  95  91   8 0.08
Sun 06/21 03Z 0.66 2919  94  88   8 0.03
Sun 06/21 04Z 0.57 2918  92  91   8 0.01
Sun 06/21 05Z 0.54 2918  92  90   8 0.01
Sun 06/21 06Z 0.44 2916  87  86   8 0.00
Sun 06/21 07Z 0.45 2916  88  91   8 0.01
Sun 06/21 08Z 0.50 2816  91  88   8 0.01
Sun 06/21 09Z 0.43 2815  90  84   8 0.01
Sun 06/21 10Z 0.44 2816  89  78   8 0.00
Sun 06/21 11Z 0.44 2816  85  76   8 0.00
Sun 06/21 12Z 0.44 2917  88  75   8 0.00
Sun 06/21 13Z 0.43 2916  90  82   8 0.00
Sun 06/21 14Z 0.44 3014  92  77   8 0.00
Sun 06/21 15Z 0.77 2913  94  74   7 0.00
Sun 06/21 16Z 0.98 2812  96  79   8 0.00
Sun 06/21 17Z 0.75 2813  96  84   8 0.02
Sun 06/21 18Z 0.74 2813  95  82   8 0.03
Sun 06/21 19Z 0.81 2814  93  79   9 0.04
Sun 06/21 20Z 0.65 2914  91  67   9 0.02
Sun 06/21 21Z 0.80 2914  93  70   9 0.03
Sun 06/21 22Z 1.25 3014  90  71   9 0.02
Sun 06/21 23Z 0.70 3014  89  71   9 0.02
Mon 06/22 00Z 0.44 3013  89  64   9 0.02
Mon 06/22 01Z 0.49 3015  89  64   9 0.04
Mon 06/22 02Z 0.40 3014  87  60   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 03Z 0.29 3113  86  58   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 04Z 0.22 3111  83  58   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 05Z 0.19 3110  80  52   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 06Z 0.17 3108  78  51   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 07Z 0.18 3007  77  45   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 08Z 0.14 3006  76  39   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 09Z 0.15 2905  77  36   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 10Z 0.18 2805  77  34   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 11Z 0.21 2705  76  35   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 12Z 0.17 2804  72  35   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 13Z 0.09 2902  69  34   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 14Z 0.03 3000  71  32  10 0.00
Mon 06/22 15Z 0.09 1802  78  29   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 16Z 0.14 1804  83  28   9 0.00
Mon 06/22 17Z 0.24 1806  83  24  10 0.00
Mon 06/22 18Z 0.32 1908  82  28  10 0.01
Mon 06/22 19Z 0.27 1810  80  37  10 0.00
Mon 06/22 20Z 0.23 1910  87  74   9 0.02
Mon 06/22 21Z 0.11 1608  92  94   8 0.11
Mon 06/22 22Z 0.20 1412  91  96   8 0.10
Mon 06/22 23Z 0.28 1316  94  98   8 0.11
Tue 06/23 00Z 0.34 1318  93  99   8 0.11
Tue 06/23 01Z 0.36 1220  94  98   8 0.12
Tue 06/23 02Z 0.39 1222  95  97   9 0.10
Tue 06/23 03Z 0.35 1221  96  97   9 0.25
Tue 06/23 04Z 0.47 1225  97  95   9 0.22
Tue 06/23 05Z 0.42 1223  97  91   9 0.23
Tue 06/23 06Z 0.32 1318  97  94  10 0.16
Tue 06/23 07Z 0.24 1314  97  93  11 0.10
Tue 06/23 08Z 0.22 1310  98  93  11 0.07
Tue 06/23 09Z 0.16 1207  98  94  11 0.09
Tue 06/23 10Z 0.11 1404  98  92  11 0.07
Tue 06/23 11Z 0.10 1501  98  95  11 0.05

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 2.37 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1