National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Hot and Humid Conditions Today and Severe Thunderstorms This Evening

Hot and Humid conditions will occur today. Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the region from 11 AM to 8 PM for heat index values between 95 and 105 degrees. Take extra precautions when outside. Severe Thunderstorms are expected this evening after sunset, especially near the International Border. Damaging winds will be the main threat, with large hail and a tornado possible. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260714_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 07/14 12Z 0.53 2822  70  35  18 0.00
Tue 07/14 13Z 0.64 2825  69  31  18 0.00
Tue 07/14 14Z 0.66 2726  67  35  19 0.00
Tue 07/14 15Z 0.62 2724  69  32  19 0.00
Tue 07/14 16Z 0.63 2725  70  29  20 0.00
Tue 07/14 17Z 0.70 2725  75  23  20 0.00
Tue 07/14 18Z 0.80 2626  75  18  21 0.00
Tue 07/14 19Z 1.01 2625  76  14  21 0.00
Tue 07/14 20Z 2.96 2526  77  15  20 0.00
Tue 07/14 21Z 4.04 2527  78  15  20 0.00
Tue 07/14 22Z 4.31 2628  82  16  20 0.00
Tue 07/14 23Z 2.34 2630  83  25  20 0.00
Wed 07/15 00Z 1.77 2731  83  34  20 0.00
Wed 07/15 01Z 1.50 2733  86  42  19 0.00
Wed 07/15 02Z 1.22 2733  87  39  20 0.00
Wed 07/15 03Z 1.04 2834  89  40  20 0.00
Wed 07/15 04Z 0.92 2833  89  50  20 0.00
Wed 07/15 05Z 0.88 2933  93  62  19 0.00
Wed 07/15 06Z 0.72 2930  94  55  19 0.01
Wed 07/15 07Z 0.68 3028  94  75  18 0.02
Wed 07/15 08Z 0.59 3025  95  83  17 0.02
Wed 07/15 09Z 0.46 3122  96  92  16 0.05
Wed 07/15 10Z 0.23 3323  92  91  16 0.12
Wed 07/15 11Z 0.07 3420  84  70  15 0.01
Wed 07/15 12Z 0.21 3319  75  36  14 0.00
Wed 07/15 13Z 0.38 3220  64  16  14 0.00
Wed 07/15 14Z 0.56 3120  54  18  14 0.00
Wed 07/15 15Z 1.14 3119  56  20  14 0.00
Wed 07/15 16Z 3.55 3017  67  24  13 0.00
Wed 07/15 17Z 6.67 2920  72  44  13 0.00
Wed 07/15 18Z 8.47 3022  61  47  13 0.00
Wed 07/15 19Z 11.97 3023  58  44  13 0.00
Wed 07/15 20Z 9.49 2923  64  66  13 0.01
Wed 07/15 21Z 3.91 3027  67  61  13 0.02
Wed 07/15 22Z 0.93 3126  75  56  13 0.00
Wed 07/15 23Z 0.93 3125  72  51  13 0.00
Thu 07/16 00Z 1.07 3125  68  48  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 01Z 0.99 3126  64  39  13 0.00
Thu 07/16 02Z 1.08 3127  65  39  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 03Z 0.89 3127  67  29  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 04Z 0.67 3225  65  26  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 05Z 0.63 3223  64  24  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 06Z 0.66 3121  66  25  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 07Z 0.70 3120  68  30  11 0.00
Thu 07/16 08Z 0.69 3120  70  30  11 0.00
Thu 07/16 09Z 0.63 3120  70  35  11 0.00
Thu 07/16 10Z 0.62 3120  71  36  11 0.00
Thu 07/16 11Z 0.60 3020  68  42  11 0.00
Thu 07/16 12Z 0.65 3020  69  40  11 0.00
Thu 07/16 13Z 0.77 2921  69  38  11 0.00
Thu 07/16 14Z 1.13 2821  71  32  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 15Z 2.60 2721  74  32  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 16Z 11.57 2621  75  28  12 0.00
Thu 07/16 17Z 13.65 2622  74  25  13 0.00
Thu 07/16 18Z 11.69 2623  71  37  13 0.00
Thu 07/16 19Z 11.70 2624  69  46  13 0.00
Thu 07/16 20Z 12.06 2627  69  42  13 0.00
Thu 07/16 21Z 10.16 2631  62  44  14 0.00
Thu 07/16 22Z 3.41 2924  73  62  14 0.02
Thu 07/16 23Z 0.75 3224  81  74  12 0.11

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.39 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1