National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Wind Advisory in effect for portions of the Northern Champlain Valley through this Afternoon

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the northern Champlain Valley through 4 PM today for gusts up to 45 MPH. The strongest gusts will be focused on the southeast facing shores of Lake Champlain and western Chittenden county through noon today, then slowly weakening towards this evening. A few power outages may be possible with many trees still leafed out. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261016_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 10/16 06Z 0.23 1925  67  75   7 0.00
Fri 10/16 07Z 0.25 1928  70  96   7 0.00
Fri 10/16 08Z 0.25 1932  71  99   7 0.00
Fri 10/16 09Z 0.27 1936  89  97   7 0.02
Fri 10/16 10Z 0.37 1940  95  96   8 0.05
Fri 10/16 11Z 0.49 2043  98  98   9 0.08
Fri 10/16 12Z 0.61 2144  98  94  10 0.19
Fri 10/16 13Z 0.66 2142  98  93  11 0.08
Fri 10/16 14Z 0.66 2239  98  91  12 0.03
Fri 10/16 15Z 0.62 2235  98  90  13 0.04
Fri 10/16 16Z 0.60 2233  98  94  13 0.06
Fri 10/16 17Z 0.68 2334  98  97  13 0.21
Fri 10/16 18Z 0.73 2432  97  95  13 0.13
Fri 10/16 19Z 0.81 2432  97  97  12 0.08
Fri 10/16 20Z 0.91 2432  96  91  12 0.05
Fri 10/16 21Z 1.08 2433  95  83  11 0.05
Fri 10/16 22Z 1.26 2532  98  76  10 0.04
Fri 10/16 23Z 1.37 2731  98  74   9 0.07
Sat 10/17 00Z 0.97 2827  97  81   7 0.04
Sat 10/17 01Z 0.57 3026  96  81   4 0.03
Sat 10/17 02Z 0.60 3027  95  45   1 0.01
Sat 10/17 03Z 0.62 3128  95  39   0 0.01
Sat 10/17 04Z 0.52 3227  97  36  -1 0.01
Sat 10/17 05Z 0.43 3226  96  48  -2 0.01
Sat 10/17 06Z 0.38 3227  97  47  -2 0.01
Sat 10/17 07Z 0.32 3327  96  41  -3 0.01
Sat 10/17 08Z 0.30 3327  95  35  -3 0.01
Sat 10/17 09Z 0.32 3327  96  36  -4 0.01
Sat 10/17 10Z 0.31 3326  95  26  -5 0.01
Sat 10/17 11Z 0.25 3326  93   8  -5 0.01
Sat 10/17 12Z 0.24 3326  91   1  -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 13Z 0.23 3326  90   1  -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 14Z 0.22 3324  90   2  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 15Z 0.22 3324  84   3  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 16Z 0.19 3322  73   2  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 17Z 0.27 3320  67   3  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 18Z 0.48 3319  63   4  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 19Z 0.68 3320  60   3  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 20Z 0.86 3222  55   5  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 21Z 0.82 3222  61   7  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 22Z 0.70 3222  62  24  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 23Z 0.58 3224  56  23  -7 0.00
Sun 10/18 00Z 0.37 3225  48  17  -7 0.00
Sun 10/18 01Z 0.25 3324  38  22  -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 02Z 0.21 3324  33  25  -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 03Z 0.19 3323  33  14  -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 04Z 0.17 3322  37   3  -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 05Z 0.20 3321  45   3  -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 06Z 0.21 3320  53  16  -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 07Z 0.24 3320  57   8  -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 08Z 0.26 3219  60   4  -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 09Z 0.27 3218  58   2  -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 10Z 0.27 3217  54   7  -4 0.00
Sun 10/18 11Z 0.25 3116  48   9  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 12Z 0.24 3115  41  29  -2 0.00
Sun 10/18 13Z 0.26 3015  36  41  -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 14Z 0.26 3015  35  49  -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 15Z 0.24 3014  42  53   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 16Z 0.22 3012  47  48   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 17Z 0.20 3011  46  42   1 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.35 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1