National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Cold Weather Advisory in Effect for Portions of Northern New York Tonight

A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect from 1 AM to 8 AM Monday for portions of northern New York. Very cold temperatures temperatures and/or wind chills as low as 15 to 25 below zero are expected. The dangerously cold wind chills as low as 15 to 25 below zero could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260301_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 03/01 12Z 0.19 3213  87  88 -12 0.00
Sun 03/01 13Z 0.17 3217  85  72 -13 0.00
Sun 03/01 14Z 0.20 3217  77  53 -13 0.00
Sun 03/01 15Z 0.29 3118  73  43 -13 0.00
Sun 03/01 16Z 0.32 3120  72  42 -14 0.00
Sun 03/01 17Z 0.34 3120  70  30 -15 0.00
Sun 03/01 19Z 0.50 3119  70  30 -16 0.00
Sun 03/01 20Z 0.51 3119  74  38 -17 0.00
Sun 03/01 21Z 0.53 3119  77  47 -17 0.00
Sun 03/01 22Z 0.54 3119  80  53 -17 0.00
Sun 03/01 23Z 0.53 3020  78  59 -18 0.00
Mon 03/02 00Z 0.54 3021  74  53 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 01Z 0.47 3122  65  41 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 02Z 0.37 3122  55  29 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 03Z 0.31 3121  49  21 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 04Z 0.28 3121  47  16 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 05Z 0.27 3120  46  12 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 06Z 0.26 3119  44   9 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 07Z 0.26 3119  42   7 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 08Z 0.27 3119  40   6 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 09Z 0.28 3119  41   7 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 10Z 0.28 3018  42   8 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 11Z 0.31 3019  47   9 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 13Z 0.36 2920  55  18 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 14Z 0.36 2919  55  18 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 15Z 0.37 2918  52  19 -19 0.00
Mon 03/02 16Z 0.40 2917  46  19 -18 0.00
Mon 03/02 17Z 0.41 2917  40  17 -18 0.00
Mon 03/02 18Z 0.38 2916  39  14 -17 0.00
Mon 03/02 19Z 0.36 2914  41  14 -16 0.00
Mon 03/02 20Z 0.32 2912  41  12 -15 0.00
Mon 03/02 21Z 0.32 2812  41   9 -14 0.00
Mon 03/02 22Z 0.32 2712  42  15 -13 0.00
Mon 03/02 23Z 0.33 2613  42  33 -13 0.00
Tue 03/03 00Z 0.35 2515  43  50 -12 0.00
Tue 03/03 01Z 0.40 2418  39  50 -11 0.00
Tue 03/03 02Z 0.45 2422  33  62 -10 0.00
Tue 03/03 03Z 0.51 2425  26  58  -9 0.00
Tue 03/03 04Z 0.56 2528  29  57  -8 0.00
Tue 03/03 05Z 0.57 2529  29  55  -7 0.00
Tue 03/03 06Z 0.57 2530  27  55  -6 0.00
Tue 03/03 07Z 0.55 2529  29  55  -5 0.00
Tue 03/03 08Z 0.53 2527  29  53  -4 0.00
Tue 03/03 09Z 0.50 2526  30  50  -4 0.00
Tue 03/03 10Z 0.50 2526  30  46  -4 0.00
Tue 03/03 11Z 0.50 2426  30  42  -3 0.00
Tue 03/03 12Z 0.48 2425  29  37  -3 0.00
Tue 03/03 13Z 0.45 2424  34  29  -3 0.00
Tue 03/03 14Z 0.43 2424  40  23  -2 0.00
Tue 03/03 15Z 0.44 2325  49  16  -2 0.00
Tue 03/03 16Z 0.46 2326  61  14  -2 0.00
Tue 03/03 17Z 0.48 2326  77  12  -2 0.00
Tue 03/03 18Z 0.51 2327  88  13  -3 0.00
Tue 03/03 19Z 0.52 2326  93  17  -3 0.00
Tue 03/03 20Z 0.51 2326  95  34  -3 0.01
Tue 03/03 21Z 0.46 2324  96  38  -2 0.01
Tue 03/03 22Z 0.40 2321  96  61  -1 0.01
Tue 03/03 23Z 0.36 2320  96  91   0 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.04 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1