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Heavy Rain and Severe Thunderstorms in the Southwest; Coastal Flooding Along Portions of the Eastern Seaboard

A slow moving front will produce a threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather from the southwest into the western High Plains through the weekend. Heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding and gusty winds will be possible this weekend into early next week in portions of southern Florida. Coastal flooding impacts remain possible through the weekend along the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coasts Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261022_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 10/22 18Z 0.16 3416  74  55   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 19Z 0.24 3421  79  56   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 20Z 0.10 3427  83  42   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 21Z 0.06 3429  83  27   2 0.00
Thu 10/22 22Z 0.08 3530  74  21   3 0.00
Thu 10/22 23Z 0.18 0032  75  17   2 0.00
Fri 10/23 00Z 0.26 0032  79  19   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 01Z 0.28 0031  71  17   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 02Z 0.28 0129  61  14   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 03Z 0.29 0127  60  11   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 04Z 0.32 0126  63   4   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 05Z 0.38 0226  55   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 06Z 0.39 0225  47   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 07Z 0.37 0224  44   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 08Z 0.34 0223  41   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 09Z 0.31 0223  41   2   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 10Z 0.31 0225  40   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 11Z 0.34 0225  38   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 12Z 0.35 0225  32   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 13Z 0.33 0224  29   1   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 14Z 0.29 0221  31   3   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 15Z 0.25 0219  36   4   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 16Z 0.24 0216  38   3   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 17Z 0.22 0215  39   3   0 0.00
Fri 10/23 18Z 0.20 0213  40   2   1 0.00
Fri 10/23 19Z 0.17 0212  37   1   2 0.00
Fri 10/23 20Z 0.15 0212  34   1   3 0.00
Fri 10/23 21Z 0.14 0212  31   2   3 0.00
Fri 10/23 22Z 0.15 0213  25   2   4 0.00
Fri 10/23 23Z 0.15 0212  22   2   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 00Z 0.14 0211  19   3   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 01Z 0.12 0210  17   3   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 02Z 0.10 0208  14   3   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 03Z 0.07 0207  12   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 04Z 0.05 0105  10   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 05Z 0.03 0104  10   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 06Z 0.01 3504   9   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 07Z 0.04 3204   8   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 08Z 0.08 3106   8   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 09Z 0.10 3108   8   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 10Z 0.11 3210   8   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 11Z 0.10 3212   7   2   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 12Z 0.08 3312   8   2   4 0.00
Sat 10/24 13Z 0.06 3311   8   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 14Z 0.05 3310   8   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 15Z 0.05 3309   9   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 16Z 0.06 3309  12   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 17Z 0.07 3208  14   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 18Z 0.08 3208  16   2   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 19Z 0.09 3209  16   3   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 20Z 0.08 3310  15   5   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 21Z 0.06 3311  12  13   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 22Z 0.03 3410   9  23   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 23Z 0.02 3409   8  33   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 00Z 0.02 3409   8  47   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 01Z 0.02 3408   8  56   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 02Z 0.02 3406   9  56   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 03Z 0.04 3305   9  56   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 04Z 0.05 3104   8  56   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 05Z 0.07 3004   8  59   7 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1