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Excessive Rainfall and Tropical Storm in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

Excessive rainfall may produce considerable, potentially life-threatening, flooding across the lower Mississippi River Valley and central Great Lakes region through tonight. Tropical Storm Arthur will move northeastward along the Texas coast today and then move inland over southwestern Louisiana by tonight. An outbreak of severe thunderstorms is expected across portions of Illinois and Indiana. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260617_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 06/17 12Z 0.24 2009  70  71   9 0.00
Wed 06/17 13Z 0.35 2008  66  60   9 0.00
Wed 06/17 14Z 1.72 2008  62  51   9 0.00
Wed 06/17 15Z 2.93 2108  59  44   9 0.00
Wed 06/17 16Z 2.80 2007  57  30  10 0.00
Wed 06/17 17Z 1.77 1907  56  29  10 0.00
Wed 06/17 18Z 1.73 1808  54  35  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 19Z 1.98 1908  51  54  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 20Z 0.88 1707  52  71  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 21Z 0.29 1708  55  73  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 22Z 0.15 1711  60  82  11 0.00
Wed 06/17 23Z 0.30 1814  65  91  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 00Z 0.38 1816  70  70  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 01Z 0.32 1818  71  35  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 02Z 0.54 1922  76  41  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 03Z 0.55 2023  86  64  10 0.00
Thu 06/18 04Z 0.38 1923  86  64  11 0.01
Thu 06/18 05Z 0.40 2023  88  68  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 06Z 0.45 2122  93  42  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 07Z 0.43 2122  91  69  11 0.00
Thu 06/18 08Z 0.41 2118  90  90  10 0.04
Thu 06/18 09Z 0.14 1817  88  91  11 0.02
Thu 06/18 10Z 0.13 1825  87  95  12 0.00
Thu 06/18 11Z 0.16 1831  84  96  13 0.00
Thu 06/18 12Z 0.19 1836  87  87  14 0.01
Thu 06/18 13Z 0.45 1941  93  93  12 0.03
Thu 06/18 14Z 0.25 1840  81  88  14 0.03
Thu 06/18 15Z 0.33 1838  96  92  13 0.13
Thu 06/18 16Z 0.32 1833  98  78  13 0.23
Thu 06/18 17Z 0.47 1932  98  71  13 0.07
Thu 06/18 18Z 0.58 2030  96  60  14 0.02
Thu 06/18 19Z 0.87 2128  94  54  14 0.00
Thu 06/18 20Z 2.90 2224  88  61  14 0.01
Thu 06/18 21Z 2.93 2424  89  49  13 0.11
Thu 06/18 22Z 1.30 2422  94  55  13 0.01
Thu 06/18 23Z 1.60 2528  92  55  12 0.09
Fri 06/19 00Z 1.56 2527  88  76  11 0.03
Fri 06/19 01Z 1.23 2529  85  62  11 0.01
Fri 06/19 02Z 1.18 2529  85  65  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 03Z 1.01 2629  87  62   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 04Z 0.92 2629  86  63  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 05Z 0.99 2629  89  76   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 06Z 1.04 2630  91  66   8 0.01
Fri 06/19 07Z 1.05 2630  93  64   8 0.01
Fri 06/19 08Z 0.90 2630  93  64   8 0.01
Fri 06/19 09Z 0.86 2631  93  67   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 10Z 0.90 2633  92  62   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 11Z 0.87 2733  92  54   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 12Z 0.89 2733  91  49   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 13Z 0.95 2732  91  39   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 14Z 1.07 2731  90  36   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 15Z 1.44 2729  90  38   9 0.01
Fri 06/19 16Z 2.58 2727  90  45   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 17Z 8.08 2625  89  45   9 0.00
Fri 06/19 18Z 9.28 2623  88  47  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 19Z 10.14 2623  86  40  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 20Z 12.58 2624  84  29  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 21Z 13.72 2625  78  36  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 22Z 13.74 2627  62  25  10 0.00
Fri 06/19 23Z 7.50 2629  68  31  10 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.95 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1