
A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the northern Champlain Valley through 4 PM today for gusts up to 45 MPH. The strongest gusts will be focused on the southeast facing shores of Lake Champlain and western Chittenden county through noon today, then slowly weakening towards this evening. A few power outages may be possible with many trees still leafed out. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261016_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 10/16 06Z 0.23 1925 67 75 7 0.00
Fri 10/16 07Z 0.25 1928 70 96 7 0.00
Fri 10/16 08Z 0.25 1932 71 99 7 0.00
Fri 10/16 09Z 0.27 1936 89 97 7 0.02
Fri 10/16 10Z 0.37 1940 95 96 8 0.05
Fri 10/16 11Z 0.49 2043 98 98 9 0.08
Fri 10/16 12Z 0.61 2144 98 94 10 0.19
Fri 10/16 13Z 0.66 2142 98 93 11 0.08
Fri 10/16 14Z 0.66 2239 98 91 12 0.03
Fri 10/16 15Z 0.62 2235 98 90 13 0.04
Fri 10/16 16Z 0.60 2233 98 94 13 0.06
Fri 10/16 17Z 0.68 2334 98 97 13 0.21
Fri 10/16 18Z 0.73 2432 97 95 13 0.13
Fri 10/16 19Z 0.81 2432 97 97 12 0.08
Fri 10/16 20Z 0.91 2432 96 91 12 0.05
Fri 10/16 21Z 1.08 2433 95 83 11 0.05
Fri 10/16 22Z 1.26 2532 98 76 10 0.04
Fri 10/16 23Z 1.37 2731 98 74 9 0.07
Sat 10/17 00Z 0.97 2827 97 81 7 0.04
Sat 10/17 01Z 0.57 3026 96 81 4 0.03
Sat 10/17 02Z 0.60 3027 95 45 1 0.01
Sat 10/17 03Z 0.62 3128 95 39 0 0.01
Sat 10/17 04Z 0.52 3227 97 36 -1 0.01
Sat 10/17 05Z 0.43 3226 96 48 -2 0.01
Sat 10/17 06Z 0.38 3227 97 47 -2 0.01
Sat 10/17 07Z 0.32 3327 96 41 -3 0.01
Sat 10/17 08Z 0.30 3327 95 35 -3 0.01
Sat 10/17 09Z 0.32 3327 96 36 -4 0.01
Sat 10/17 10Z 0.31 3326 95 26 -5 0.01
Sat 10/17 11Z 0.25 3326 93 8 -5 0.01
Sat 10/17 12Z 0.24 3326 91 1 -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 13Z 0.23 3326 90 1 -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 14Z 0.22 3324 90 2 -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 15Z 0.22 3324 84 3 -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 16Z 0.19 3322 73 2 -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 17Z 0.27 3320 67 3 -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 18Z 0.48 3319 63 4 -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 19Z 0.68 3320 60 3 -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 20Z 0.86 3222 55 5 -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 21Z 0.82 3222 61 7 -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 22Z 0.70 3222 62 24 -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 23Z 0.58 3224 56 23 -7 0.00
Sun 10/18 00Z 0.37 3225 48 17 -7 0.00
Sun 10/18 01Z 0.25 3324 38 22 -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 02Z 0.21 3324 33 25 -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 03Z 0.19 3323 33 14 -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 04Z 0.17 3322 37 3 -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 05Z 0.20 3321 45 3 -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 06Z 0.21 3320 53 16 -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 07Z 0.24 3320 57 8 -6 0.00
Sun 10/18 08Z 0.26 3219 60 4 -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 09Z 0.27 3218 58 2 -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 10Z 0.27 3217 54 7 -4 0.00
Sun 10/18 11Z 0.25 3116 48 9 -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 12Z 0.24 3115 41 29 -2 0.00
Sun 10/18 13Z 0.26 3015 36 41 -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 14Z 0.26 3015 35 49 -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 15Z 0.24 3014 42 53 0 0.00
Sun 10/18 16Z 0.22 3012 47 48 0 0.00
Sun 10/18 17Z 0.20 3011 46 42 1 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.35 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1