National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Winter Storm Warnings in effect for Essex County in New York, and the southern Greens of Vermont, with Winter Weather Advisories elsewhere from 10 AM Friday through 10 AM Saturday

A warm front will approach Friday afternoon. A brief wintry mix or rain in warmer valleys is possible before a quick transition into moderate to heavy snow takes place during the Friday evening commute. 1-1.5 inch per hour snowfall rates are likely in northeastern New York and much of Vermont. Difficult travel is likely Friday Evening. Light snow will continue Friday night into Saturday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260219_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 02/19 18Z 0.10 1203  56  29  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 19Z 0.11 1304  57  32  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 20Z 0.04 1605  57  36  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 21Z 0.03 1704  56  40  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 22Z 0.05 1903  57  47  -4 0.00
Thu 02/19 23Z 0.07 1904  57  52  -4 0.00
Fri 02/20 00Z 0.03 1903  53  41  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 01Z 0.02 1603  52  21  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 02Z 0.02 1604  55  13  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 03Z 0.03 1805  57  11  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 06Z 0.02 1707  63   9  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 07Z 0.05 1809  66   9  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 08Z 0.02 1709  68   9  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 09Z 0.02 1609  69  10  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 10Z 0.03 1610  67  10  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 11Z 0.02 1712  65  11  -1 0.00
Fri 02/20 12Z 0.02 1615  64  11  -1 0.00
Fri 02/20 13Z 0.02 1716  63  10  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 14Z 0.02 1617  61  13  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 15Z 0.02 1617  62  22  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 16Z 0.02 1618  62  30  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 17Z 0.03 1618  66  61  -3 0.00
Fri 02/20 18Z 0.09 1516  79  91  -2 0.00
Fri 02/20 19Z 0.10 1518  92  94   0 0.00
Fri 02/20 20Z 0.14 1419  96  94   0 0.01
Fri 02/20 21Z 0.22 1322  95  97   0 0.04
Fri 02/20 22Z 0.30 1325  94  99  -1 0.08
Fri 02/20 23Z 0.37 1227  94  99  -1 0.08
Sat 02/21 00Z 0.37 1225  96  98  -2 0.07
Sat 02/21 01Z 0.36 1321  96  96  -4 0.05
Sat 02/21 02Z 0.38 1319  96  97  -5 0.09
Sat 02/21 03Z 0.42 1317  95  99  -7 0.16
Sat 02/21 04Z 0.37 1316  95  96  -7 0.11
Sat 02/21 05Z 0.27 1414  95  95  -8 0.07
Sat 02/21 06Z 0.13 1511  95  97  -8 0.03
Sat 02/21 07Z 0.06 1608  94  93  -8 0.02
Sat 02/21 08Z 0.04 1606  94  91  -8 0.02
Sat 02/21 09Z 0.05 1804  95  89  -8 0.02
Sat 02/21 10Z 0.11 2203  96  88  -8 0.01
Sat 02/21 11Z 0.11 2602  96  87  -8 0.01
Sat 02/21 12Z 0.09 2802  98  87  -8 0.01
Sat 02/21 13Z 0.07 2801  99  88  -8 0.01
Sat 02/21 14Z 0.06 3201  99  89  -8 0.01
Sat 02/21 15Z 0.06 0101  99  88  -8 0.01
Sat 02/21 16Z 0.08 0303  98  86  -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 17Z 0.14 0304  97  81  -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 18Z 0.12 0204  96  84  -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 19Z 0.15 0205  90  81  -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 20Z 0.20 0305  83  81  -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 21Z 0.28 0407  75  69  -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 22Z 0.37 0608  73  53  -8 0.00
Sat 02/21 23Z 0.37 0710  75  42  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 00Z 0.30 0810  63  29  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 02Z 0.28 1011  53  16  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 03Z 0.25 1010  56  13  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 04Z 0.22 1109  56  13  -8 0.00
Sun 02/22 05Z 0.19 1108  56  14  -8 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.91 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1