
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM Thursday for most of northern New York. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 7 inches are expected. Precipitation will initially start as rain before quickly changing over to snow with sharply falling temperatures. Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact Thursday commutes. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260114_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Wed 01/14 00Z 0.30 2025 67 54 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 01Z 0.37 2028 63 92 0 0.00
Wed 01/14 02Z 0.51 2032 63 95 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 03Z 0.75 2136 76 92 -3 0.00
Wed 01/14 04Z 0.57 2134 87 91 -1 0.03
Wed 01/14 05Z 0.68 2136 71 73 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 07Z 0.81 2233 69 77 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 08Z 0.80 2332 73 83 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 09Z 0.78 2331 76 69 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 10Z 0.73 2330 78 74 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 11Z 0.68 2328 80 65 0 0.00
Wed 01/14 12Z 0.66 2328 78 64 0 0.00
Wed 01/14 13Z 0.66 2328 78 56 0 0.00
Wed 01/14 14Z 0.65 2327 78 49 0 0.00
Wed 01/14 16Z 0.61 2324 78 42 0 0.00
Wed 01/14 17Z 0.67 2324 79 60 0 0.00
Wed 01/14 18Z 0.69 2223 79 79 0 0.00
Wed 01/14 19Z 0.74 2222 80 77 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 20Z 0.67 2221 80 84 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 21Z 0.62 2220 83 89 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 22Z 0.52 2118 87 93 -1 0.00
Wed 01/14 23Z 0.42 2117 92 96 -1 0.00
Thu 01/15 00Z 0.30 2015 96 94 -1 0.00
Thu 01/15 01Z 0.28 2017 97 94 -1 0.00
Thu 01/15 02Z 0.21 1918 98 94 0 0.01
Thu 01/15 03Z 0.14 1820 96 94 0 0.01
Thu 01/15 04Z 0.11 1821 91 93 0 0.03
Thu 01/15 05Z 0.09 1721 92 92 0 0.03
Thu 01/15 06Z 0.08 1719 96 95 0 0.03
Thu 01/15 07Z 0.05 1719 98 97 -1 0.01
Thu 01/15 08Z 0.07 1718 98 94 -1 0.01
Thu 01/15 09Z 0.16 1817 98 96 -1 0.02
Thu 01/15 10Z 0.21 1916 98 94 -1 0.04
Thu 01/15 11Z 0.22 1917 98 92 -1 0.04
Thu 01/15 12Z 0.18 1916 98 92 -1 0.03
Thu 01/15 13Z 0.28 1917 98 91 -2 0.04
Thu 01/15 14Z 0.37 2016 99 81 -2 0.03
Thu 01/15 15Z 0.50 2215 99 72 -3 0.01
Thu 01/15 16Z 0.53 2315 98 65 -4 0.01
Thu 01/15 17Z 0.48 2315 97 64 -4 0.02
Thu 01/15 18Z 0.41 2416 96 60 -5 0.02
Thu 01/15 19Z 0.40 2515 95 40 -7 0.02
Thu 01/15 20Z 0.51 2516 95 23 -9 0.02
Thu 01/15 21Z 0.85 2518 94 10 -11 0.01
Thu 01/15 22Z 1.05 2519 88 11 -13 0.01
Thu 01/15 23Z 2.45 2521 83 21 -14 0.01
Fri 01/16 00Z 3.47 2521 87 29 -16 0.01
Fri 01/16 01Z 4.29 2519 90 38 -16 0.00
Fri 01/16 02Z 2.47 2519 86 45 -17 0.00
Fri 01/16 03Z 2.33 2519 83 48 -17 0.00
Fri 01/16 04Z 1.63 2619 83 46 -18 0.00
Fri 01/16 05Z 2.54 2618 84 49 -19 0.00
Fri 01/16 06Z 4.36 2718 81 69 -20 0.00
Fri 01/16 07Z 4.09 2719 84 77 -20 0.00
Fri 01/16 08Z 5.20 2819 85 81 -21 0.01
Fri 01/16 09Z 5.30 2821 85 80 -21 0.01
Fri 01/16 10Z 3.63 2822 86 76 -21 0.00
Fri 01/16 11Z 2.60 2723 86 75 -21 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.52 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1