National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

River Flooding Continues in East Florida; Rain and Thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast Thursday; Heavy Rain in Puerto Rico

Significant river flooding is forecast along the St. John’s and the Peace rivers through the end of the week as flood waters will be slow to recede. Periods of rainfall and thunderstorms are expected across the Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday and Friday. In Puerto Rico, increased moisture in the Atlantic will produce heavy rainfall for the island. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261103_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 11/03 06Z 0.40 2813  57  81   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 07Z 0.41 2813  56  81   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 08Z 0.36 2812  54  82  10 0.00
Tue 11/03 09Z 0.31 2710  54  80  10 0.00
Tue 11/03 10Z 0.32 2609  57  87  10 0.00
Tue 11/03 11Z 0.35 2610  61  88   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 12Z 0.39 2511  65  95   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 13Z 0.42 2412  64  94   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 14Z 0.41 2412  61  96   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 15Z 0.42 2313  59  95   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 16Z 0.47 2215  61  89   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 17Z 0.53 2317  64  87   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 18Z 0.55 2317  68  96   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 19Z 0.56 2218  74  98   8 0.00
Tue 11/03 20Z 0.62 2220  81  95   8 0.00
Tue 11/03 21Z 0.73 2323  83  91   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 22Z 0.68 2325  90  83   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 23Z 0.69 2425  91  77  10 0.01
Wed 11/04 00Z 0.65 2524  93  67  10 0.01
Wed 11/04 01Z 0.66 2624  93  53  10 0.01
Wed 11/04 02Z 0.63 2723  89  46  10 0.00
Wed 11/04 03Z 0.66 2624  86  44  10 0.00
Wed 11/04 04Z 0.68 2623  85  42  10 0.00
Wed 11/04 05Z 0.67 2523  83  40  10 0.00
Wed 11/04 06Z 0.72 2525  84  42  10 0.00
Wed 11/04 07Z 0.72 2525  78  41  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 08Z 0.71 2525  71  41  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 09Z 0.74 2526  69  60  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 10Z 0.74 2526  69  73  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 11Z 0.71 2526  70  69  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 12Z 0.71 2526  71  70  12 0.00
Wed 11/04 13Z 0.70 2526  67  74  12 0.00
Wed 11/04 14Z 0.65 2525  64  71  12 0.00
Wed 11/04 15Z 0.60 2523  61  65  12 0.00
Wed 11/04 16Z 0.54 2521  58  62  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 17Z 0.50 2519  53  61  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 18Z 0.48 2418  49  45  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 19Z 0.46 2418  49  40  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 20Z 0.46 2418  54  42  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 21Z 0.49 2419  58  44  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 22Z 0.51 2420  61  46  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 23Z 0.52 2421  63  40  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 00Z 0.49 2421  63  41  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 01Z 0.44 2419  59  43  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 02Z 0.42 2419  54  46  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 03Z 0.44 2420  50  51  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 04Z 0.48 2322  45  57  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 05Z 0.51 2324  39  57  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 06Z 0.53 2326  36  39  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 07Z 0.56 2328  38  30  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 08Z 0.55 2328  42  31  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 09Z 0.53 2228  45  34  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 10Z 0.52 2228  47  38  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 11Z 0.55 2230  47  41  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 12Z 0.61 2232  52  57  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 13Z 0.65 2234  58  66  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 14Z 0.61 2233  68  63  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 15Z 0.57 2230  74  76  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 16Z 0.58 2229  82  90  12 0.00
Thu 11/05 17Z 0.66 2229  96  92  11 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.04 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1