National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Strong and gusty winds possible Sunday night and Monday

A High Wind Watch has been issued for portions of northern New York for Sunday night through Monday. South winds of 20 to 30 mph are expected with gusts up to 60 mph in the Watch area. Elsewhere, gusts up to 40 mph are possible. The strongest winds will occur between 2 AM Monday and 5 PM Monday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260314_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 03/14 18Z 2.92 2524  96  83  -7 0.00
Sat 03/14 19Z 5.66 2729  91  80  -7 0.03
Sat 03/14 20Z 10.29 2831  83  76  -8 0.01
Sat 03/14 21Z 5.54 2834  87  74  -9 0.01
Sat 03/14 22Z 3.76 2835  89  73 -10 0.01
Sat 03/14 23Z 1.67 2933  92  69 -10 0.01
Sun 03/15 00Z 1.50 2931  95  54 -10 0.01
Sun 03/15 01Z 1.47 2930  95  43 -11 0.01
Sun 03/15 02Z 1.22 3027  94  20 -11 0.01
Sun 03/15 03Z 1.20 3026  93   9 -11 0.01
Sun 03/15 04Z 0.86 3024  88  10 -12 0.00
Sun 03/15 05Z 0.56 3124  77   7 -11 0.00
Sun 03/15 06Z 0.43 3123  66   9 -10 0.00
Sun 03/15 07Z 0.34 3121  55  14  -9 0.00
Sun 03/15 08Z 0.28 3119  47  11  -8 0.00
Sun 03/15 09Z 0.23 3117  41  14  -8 0.00
Sun 03/15 10Z 0.16 3216  30  18  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 11Z 0.11 3213  23  21  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 12Z 0.06 3310  20  32  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 13Z 0.06 3105  22  71  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 14Z 0.05 2402  24  91  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 15Z 0.02 1703  25  94  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 16Z 0.04 1508  28  98  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 17Z 0.07 1613  38  98  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 18Z 0.07 1618  55  98  -7 0.00
Sun 03/15 19Z 0.03 1621  61  98  -6 0.00
Sun 03/15 20Z 0.05 1625  61  98  -5 0.00
Sun 03/15 21Z 0.06 1630  51  98  -4 0.00
Sun 03/15 22Z 0.04 1733  37  94  -2 0.00
Sun 03/15 23Z 0.10 1736  34  71  -1 0.00
Mon 03/16 00Z 0.15 1839  34  48   0 0.00
Mon 03/16 01Z 0.19 1842  29  53   0 0.00
Mon 03/16 02Z 0.20 1844  25  64   1 0.00
Mon 03/16 03Z 0.20 1846  25  72   2 0.00
Mon 03/16 04Z 0.19 1848  28  72   2 0.00
Mon 03/16 05Z 0.17 1848  55  51   3 0.00
Mon 03/16 06Z 0.13 1748  72  49   3 0.00
Mon 03/16 07Z 0.09 1748  87  56   3 0.01
Mon 03/16 08Z 0.05 1748  90  73   4 0.01
Mon 03/16 09Z 0.06 1649  94  71   6 0.02
Mon 03/16 10Z 0.11 1650  95  92   7 0.04
Mon 03/16 11Z 0.10 1651  95  98   7 0.14
Mon 03/16 12Z 0.03 1649  96  91   7 0.11
Mon 03/16 13Z 0.13 1746  97  46   8 0.03
Mon 03/16 14Z 0.22 1846  98  31   9 0.02
Mon 03/16 15Z 0.33 1945  98  19   9 0.02
Mon 03/16 16Z 0.37 1945  97  24   9 0.01
Mon 03/16 17Z 0.43 1944  95  23   9 0.01
Mon 03/16 18Z 0.46 1943  94  22  10 0.00
Mon 03/16 19Z 0.40 1942  95  31  10 0.00
Mon 03/16 20Z 0.34 1844  95  39  10 0.00
Mon 03/16 21Z 0.33 1846  95  68  10 0.00
Mon 03/16 22Z 0.29 1846  96  58  10 0.01
Mon 03/16 23Z 0.28 1847  96  48  10 0.01
Tue 03/17 00Z 0.33 1847  96  59   9 0.01
Tue 03/17 01Z 0.26 1842  96  84   9 0.01
Tue 03/17 02Z 0.27 1827  99  96   8 0.10
Tue 03/17 03Z 0.13 1730  97  92   8 0.12
Tue 03/17 04Z 0.21 1828  99  95   7 0.05
Tue 03/17 05Z 0.53 2621  97  96   0 0.10

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.94 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1