National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Freezing Rain Expected Today across New York and Grand Isle County in Vermont. Flooding Remains Possible Through Thursday.

Temperatures across northern New York and Grand Isle County in Vermont will drop below freezing today as rain moves into the region. A glaze up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain will be possible through this afternoon; locally higher near Massena, New York. Flooding remains possible through Thursday due to snow melt, ice jams, and widespread rainfall today and Thursday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260310_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 03/10 18Z 2.71 2316  53  40   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 19Z 1.92 2318  52  38   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 20Z 1.86 2420  55  37   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 21Z 1.68 2521  63  42   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 22Z 1.51 2622  75  39   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 23Z 0.98 2720  85  50   7 0.01
Wed 03/11 00Z 0.63 2718  91  37   7 0.01
Wed 03/11 01Z 0.55 2817  88  30   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 02Z 0.46 2817  86  32   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 03Z 0.34 2814  88  34   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 04Z 0.24 2811  90  33   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 05Z 0.18 2708  92  33   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 06Z 0.14 2506  93  71   8 0.00
Wed 03/11 07Z 0.10 2206  95  57   8 0.00
Wed 03/11 08Z 0.04 1808  96  68   8 0.00
Wed 03/11 09Z 0.02 1615  98  69   8 0.01
Wed 03/11 10Z 0.06 1622  98  57   8 0.02
Wed 03/11 11Z 0.06 1628  97  38   8 0.03
Wed 03/11 12Z 0.04 1731  97  44   9 0.03
Wed 03/11 13Z 0.06 1731  97  57   9 0.04
Wed 03/11 14Z 0.09 1732  97  68   9 0.02
Wed 03/11 15Z 0.11 1834  97  92  10 0.02
Wed 03/11 16Z 0.13 1835  95  91  10 0.03
Wed 03/11 17Z 0.24 1939  96  89   9 0.05
Wed 03/11 18Z 0.31 1940  94  44  10 0.03
Wed 03/11 19Z 0.33 2040  94  42  11 0.00
Wed 03/11 20Z 0.34 2037  90  51  12 0.00
Wed 03/11 21Z 0.33 2036  95  94  10 0.02
Wed 03/11 22Z 0.36 2039  97  94  10 0.05
Wed 03/11 23Z 0.46 2039  96  92  10 0.02
Thu 03/12 01Z 0.69 2144  98  95  11 0.04
Thu 03/12 02Z 0.87 2143  97  90  11 0.08
Thu 03/12 03Z 0.76 2138  97  86  12 0.05
Thu 03/12 04Z 0.84 2236  98  73  12 0.04
Thu 03/12 05Z 0.79 2331  98  78  11 0.18
Thu 03/12 06Z 0.85 2330  97  72  10 0.08
Thu 03/12 07Z 1.09 2430  98  73   8 0.07
Thu 03/12 08Z 1.38 2531  98  88   6 0.06
Thu 03/12 09Z 1.07 2631  96  88   2 0.06
Thu 03/12 10Z 1.06 2630  96  76  -2 0.09
Thu 03/12 11Z 1.24 2729  95  39  -5 0.05
Thu 03/12 12Z 1.18 2730  94  42  -7 0.01
Thu 03/12 13Z 1.37 2828  95  26  -9 0.00
Thu 03/12 14Z 1.70 2829  95  15 -10 0.00
Thu 03/12 15Z 2.03 2827  92   5 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 16Z 3.82 2925  91   3 -13 0.01
Thu 03/12 17Z 4.72 2924  89   6 -13 0.00
Thu 03/12 18Z 6.45 2923  88  14 -13 0.00
Thu 03/12 19Z 7.66 2922  88  20 -13 0.00
Thu 03/12 20Z 6.75 3023  87  24 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 21Z 4.58 3022  86  32 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 22Z 2.28 3020  87  38 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 23Z 1.28 3021  88  41 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 01Z 0.93 3023  89  45 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 02Z 0.88 3124  91  42 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 03Z 0.83 3123  93  42 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 04Z 0.79 3123  94  43 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 05Z 0.73 3122  94  43 -13 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.21 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1