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Autumn Temperatures for Eastern Third of the Country; Super Typhoon Approaching Guam

Cooler and less humid conditions for the eastern third of the nation as a cold slides off the east coast. Combination of dry and breezy conditions may result in spread of wildfires across the lower Mississippi Valley. In addition, fire weather conditions linger into portions of Southern California. For Guam, a super typhoon is approaching. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261017_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 10/17 06Z 0.54 3225  97  51  -2 0.00
Sat 10/17 07Z 0.60 3229  94  46  -4 0.00
Sat 10/17 08Z 0.60 3231  95  44  -4 0.00
Sat 10/17 09Z 0.66 3230  95  43  -5 0.00
Sat 10/17 10Z 0.63 3230  94  26  -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 11Z 0.61 3230  94   5  -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 12Z 0.67 3230  96   0  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 13Z 0.58 3228  96   1  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 14Z 0.57 3225  95   3  -8 0.01
Sat 10/17 15Z 0.53 3223  92   3  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 16Z 0.53 3222  84   3  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 17Z 0.45 3220  77   3  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 18Z 0.57 3219  71   6  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 19Z 0.67 3119  66  19  -8 0.00
Sat 10/17 20Z 0.58 3220  63  29  -7 0.00
Sat 10/17 21Z 0.43 3220  59  31  -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 22Z 0.36 3220  52  27  -6 0.00
Sat 10/17 23Z 0.35 3222  46  32  -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 00Z 0.32 3221  41  46  -5 0.00
Sun 10/18 01Z 0.27 3220  37  42  -4 0.00
Sun 10/18 02Z 0.23 3219  38  43  -4 0.00
Sun 10/18 03Z 0.19 3217  40  48  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 04Z 0.18 3215  42  48  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 05Z 0.23 3115  45  44  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 06Z 0.30 3015  48  51  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 07Z 0.37 3016  49  53  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 08Z 0.40 2915  49  56  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 09Z 0.40 2916  52  62  -3 0.00
Sun 10/18 10Z 0.35 3017  60  60  -2 0.00
Sun 10/18 11Z 0.33 3017  66  60  -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 12Z 0.30 3016  68  54   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 13Z 0.26 3015  68  48   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 14Z 0.24 3013  69  45   0 0.00
Sun 10/18 15Z 0.24 2911  67  42   1 0.00
Sun 10/18 16Z 0.25 2810  63  39   1 0.00
Sun 10/18 17Z 0.28 2710  53  35   1 0.00
Sun 10/18 18Z 0.29 2710  40  30   2 0.00
Sun 10/18 19Z 0.31 2711  35  27   3 0.00
Sun 10/18 20Z 0.32 2612  32  29   4 0.00
Sun 10/18 21Z 0.32 2713  30  29   5 0.00
Sun 10/18 22Z 0.30 2714  27  29   6 0.00
Sun 10/18 23Z 0.26 2712  24  33   7 0.00
Mon 10/19 00Z 0.24 2711  19  30   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 01Z 0.22 2710  14  26   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 02Z 0.22 2610  11  19   8 0.00
Mon 10/19 03Z 0.22 2610  10  15   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 04Z 0.23 2611  11  14   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 05Z 0.23 2511  13  15   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 06Z 0.23 2611  13  14  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 07Z 0.23 2611  14  15  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 08Z 0.24 2611  15  15  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 09Z 0.24 2612  16  15  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 10Z 0.24 2711  16  15  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 11Z 0.22 2710  15  16  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 12Z 0.20 2809  15  17  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 13Z 0.18 2808  14  18  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 14Z 0.17 2807  14  15  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 15Z 0.15 2807  14  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 16Z 0.14 2806  15  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/19 17Z 0.13 2805  16  16  11 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.01 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1