National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Freezing Rain Expected Tonight across New York and Grand Isle County in Vermont. Flooding Remains Possible Through Thursday.

Temperatures across northern New York and Grand Isle County in Vermont will drop below freezing tonight as rain moves into the region. A glaze up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain will be possible through Wednesday afternoon. Flooding remains possible through Thursday due to snow melt, ice jams, and widespread rainfall Wednesday and Thursday. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260310_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 03/10 12Z 0.57 2619  47  42   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 13Z 0.57 2619  46  41   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 14Z 0.57 2519  46  43   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 15Z 0.57 2518  48  47   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 16Z 0.56 2417  49  43   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 17Z 0.61 2416  49  43   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 18Z 0.66 2316  49  40   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 19Z 0.75 2318  50  46   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 20Z 0.87 2419  56  43   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 21Z 0.95 2520  67  41   8 0.00
Tue 03/10 22Z 0.99 2622  78  40   7 0.00
Tue 03/10 23Z 0.78 2621  87  40   7 0.01
Wed 03/11 00Z 0.60 2719  91  40   7 0.01
Wed 03/11 01Z 0.46 2716  93  42   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 02Z 0.36 2714  95  38   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 03Z 0.29 2712  97  41   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 04Z 0.24 2710  97  47   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 05Z 0.17 2607  98  83   7 0.00
Wed 03/11 06Z 0.11 2306  99  83   8 0.01
Wed 03/11 07Z 0.08 2007  99  84   8 0.01
Wed 03/11 08Z 0.06 1812  99  85   8 0.01
Wed 03/11 09Z 0.02 1717  99  86   8 0.03
Wed 03/11 10Z 0.03 1622  98  72   8 0.03
Wed 03/11 11Z 0.04 1627  98  55   8 0.03
Wed 03/11 12Z 0.03 1729  98  38   8 0.03
Wed 03/11 13Z 0.07 1730  98  38   9 0.03
Wed 03/11 14Z 0.11 1832  98  44   9 0.03
Wed 03/11 15Z 0.14 1833  97  56  10 0.03
Wed 03/11 16Z 0.18 1834  95  66   9 0.03
Wed 03/11 17Z 0.20 1935  94  41   9 0.01
Wed 03/11 18Z 0.20 1936  94  27   9 0.01
Wed 03/11 19Z 0.21 1937  94  55  10 0.01
Wed 03/11 20Z 0.24 1937  94  70  11 0.01
Wed 03/11 21Z 0.26 1939  93  86  11 0.01
Wed 03/11 22Z 0.29 1941  91  83  12 0.00
Wed 03/11 23Z 0.32 1941  96  90  11 0.03
Thu 03/12 00Z 0.36 2041  94  95  11 0.02
Thu 03/12 01Z 0.48 2041  95  87  11 0.01
Thu 03/12 02Z 0.59 2145  96  91  12 0.01
Thu 03/12 03Z 0.63 2046  96  77  12 0.02
Thu 03/12 04Z 0.77 2044  98  90  11 0.05
Thu 03/12 05Z 1.25 2336  98  58   9 0.09
Thu 03/12 06Z 1.21 2437  97  51   9 0.02
Thu 03/12 07Z 1.38 2434  99  74   7 0.04
Thu 03/12 08Z 1.29 2536  96  57   0 0.07
Thu 03/12 09Z 1.83 2639  89  30  -4 0.03
Thu 03/12 10Z 2.92 2637  87  17  -8 0.00
Thu 03/12 11Z 2.30 2636  92   3 -10 0.00
Thu 03/12 12Z 2.12 2638  94   1 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 13Z 8.02 2738  91   3 -12 0.01
Thu 03/12 14Z 15.15 2738  86   8 -13 0.00
Thu 03/12 15Z 14.52 2735  86  12 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 16Z 17.91 2832  86  17 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 17Z 16.36 2829  78  22 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 18Z 17.04 2827  74  28 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 19Z 15.67 2826  70  38 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 20Z 16.50 2826  72  41 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 21Z 15.02 2825  76  44 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 22Z 8.36 2824  82  49 -11 0.00
Thu 03/12 23Z 2.90 2824  86  56 -11 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.74 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1