
A Flood Watch has been issued until 8 AM Monday for most of northern and central Vermont, outside of Grand Isle County, for heavy rain. Rainfall between 1 to 2 inches, with locally up to 3 inches, will be possible through this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through. Flash Flooding will be possible if areas receive multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260615_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 06/15 00Z 0.82 2029 71 93 15 0.00
Mon 06/15 01Z 0.66 2028 72 90 15 0.01
Mon 06/15 02Z 0.52 2026 81 94 15 0.01
Mon 06/15 03Z 0.36 1924 86 84 15 0.03
Mon 06/15 04Z 0.47 2615 97 92 12 0.45
Mon 06/15 05Z 0.39 2514 93 87 12 0.33
Mon 06/15 06Z 0.35 2512 93 96 12 0.08
Mon 06/15 07Z 0.31 2710 97 99 11 0.16
Mon 06/15 08Z 0.35 2913 97 98 11 0.08
Mon 06/15 09Z 0.50 2917 97 98 10 0.07
Mon 06/15 10Z 0.43 3121 97 91 9 0.03
Mon 06/15 11Z 0.33 3121 92 84 9 0.01
Mon 06/15 12Z 0.38 3121 84 56 9 0.00
Mon 06/15 13Z 0.47 3021 80 39 8 0.00
Mon 06/15 14Z 0.53 3019 79 16 8 0.00
Mon 06/15 15Z 1.02 3017 83 10 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 16Z 4.14 2916 86 19 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 17Z 5.47 3015 86 18 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 18Z 4.08 3114 84 13 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 19Z 4.00 3113 81 8 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 20Z 3.92 3014 81 6 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 21Z 4.12 3014 83 6 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 22Z 2.62 3115 84 7 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 23Z 0.90 3115 84 8 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 00Z 0.49 3115 87 9 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 01Z 0.48 3016 90 9 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 02Z 0.50 3017 92 9 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 03Z 0.48 3018 95 12 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 04Z 0.43 3118 96 19 5 0.01
Tue 06/16 05Z 0.40 3118 96 24 4 0.01
Tue 06/16 06Z 0.37 3119 96 19 4 0.01
Tue 06/16 07Z 0.38 3120 96 9 4 0.01
Tue 06/16 08Z 0.34 3119 94 3 4 0.01
Tue 06/16 09Z 0.30 3218 92 2 4 0.01
Tue 06/16 10Z 0.25 3217 89 3 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 11Z 0.21 3216 83 8 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 12Z 0.17 3215 76 16 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 13Z 0.15 3213 69 26 7 0.00
Tue 06/16 14Z 0.14 3212 64 28 7 0.00
Tue 06/16 15Z 0.20 3209 63 30 7 0.00
Tue 06/16 16Z 0.83 3107 61 26 7 0.00
Tue 06/16 17Z 2.23 2906 57 30 8 0.00
Tue 06/16 18Z 3.24 2706 55 42 8 0.00
Tue 06/16 19Z 4.27 2607 58 39 9 0.00
Tue 06/16 20Z 3.92 2507 59 36 9 0.00
Tue 06/16 21Z 3.77 2407 61 25 9 0.00
Tue 06/16 22Z 2.73 2308 64 19 9 0.00
Tue 06/16 23Z 1.09 2310 66 8 9 0.00
Wed 06/17 00Z 0.82 2312 67 15 9 0.00
Wed 06/17 01Z 0.91 2315 70 22 9 0.00
Wed 06/17 02Z 1.00 2416 71 21 9 0.00
Wed 06/17 03Z 0.96 2416 71 31 9 0.00
Wed 06/17 04Z 0.85 2516 75 25 9 0.00
Wed 06/17 05Z 0.80 2515 77 33 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 06Z 0.70 2414 78 32 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 07Z 0.67 2413 79 30 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 08Z 0.58 2411 81 24 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 09Z 0.58 2312 83 30 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 10Z 0.54 2212 82 28 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 11Z 0.37 2109 80 21 8 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.32 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1