National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Heavy Rainfall This Weekend in the Southern Plains and in South Florida; Bering Sea Storm in Alaska

A slow moving front will produce a threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather from New Mexico into the western High Plains through the weekend. Heavy rainfall is also expected this weekend in South Florida. The Bering Sea storm continues to bring heavy precipitation, strong winds, and minor to major coastal flooding through the weekend across western Alaska. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261024_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sat 10/24 12Z 0.14 3008  22   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 13Z 0.17 3010  20   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 14Z 0.15 3111  22   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 15Z 0.12 3110  24   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 16Z 0.11 3108  26   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 17Z 0.10 3107  28   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 18Z 0.11 3006  30   1   5 0.00
Sat 10/24 19Z 0.11 3006  30   2   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 20Z 0.13 2906  28   2   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 21Z 0.15 2907  25   3   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 22Z 0.16 3008  22   4   6 0.00
Sat 10/24 23Z 0.14 3008  22   7   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 00Z 0.13 3109  26   9   6 0.00
Sun 10/25 01Z 0.10 3108  27  12   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 02Z 0.10 3107  27  12   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 03Z 0.10 3106  25  13   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 04Z 0.09 3106  20  14   7 0.00
Sun 10/25 05Z 0.09 3005  17  16   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 06Z 0.08 2904  14  19   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 07Z 0.09 2704  13  24   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 08Z 0.13 2706  14  28   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 09Z 0.16 2607  14  32   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 10Z 0.19 2609  15  34   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 11Z 0.20 2709  14  34   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 12Z 0.19 2709  13  33   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 13Z 0.18 2809  10  32   8 0.00
Sun 10/25 14Z 0.18 2708   7  29   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 15Z 0.18 2708   7  26   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 16Z 0.19 2609   8  24   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 17Z 0.21 2609  10  24   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 18Z 0.21 2609   9  25  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 19Z 0.23 2510   9  25  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 20Z 0.25 2511   9  27  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 21Z 0.27 2612   9  25   9 0.00
Sun 10/25 22Z 0.28 2612  10  25  10 0.00
Sun 10/25 23Z 0.28 2612  10  24  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 00Z 0.29 2613  11  21  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 01Z 0.30 2614  12  19  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 02Z 0.32 2616  13  17  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 03Z 0.33 2616   9  16  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 04Z 0.33 2616   8  15  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 05Z 0.35 2617  10  14  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 06Z 0.35 2718   9  12  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 07Z 0.34 2717   9  12  11 0.00
Mon 10/26 08Z 0.35 2817  10  13  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 09Z 0.35 2918  13  12  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 10Z 0.34 2918  20  39  10 0.00
Mon 10/26 11Z 0.36 2918  28  22   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 12Z 0.38 2919  34  36   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 13Z 0.41 2921  46  48   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 14Z 0.44 2922  55  55   9 0.00
Mon 10/26 15Z 0.47 2923  71  75   8 0.00
Mon 10/26 16Z 0.46 2923  89  84   8 0.00
Mon 10/26 17Z 0.46 2923  94  92   7 0.01
Mon 10/26 18Z 0.44 3023  95  91   7 0.01
Mon 10/26 19Z 0.43 3022  89  92   6 0.00
Mon 10/26 20Z 0.44 3022  88  87   5 0.00
Mon 10/26 21Z 0.44 3021  86  70   4 0.01
Mon 10/26 22Z 0.40 3122  81  60   4 0.01
Mon 10/26 23Z 0.33 3224  81  65   3 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.05 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1