National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold Expected This Weekend

An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for all of northern New York and Vermont for Saturday into Sunday afternoon. Wind chills of 20 to 35 below zero are possible, especially Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Prepare now for the extreme cold, especially if you plan to be outdoors. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260205_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 02/05 12Z 0.23 3013  79   8 -13 0.00
Thu 02/05 13Z 0.22 3116  82   4 -14 0.00
Thu 02/05 14Z 0.20 3116  82  19 -13 0.00
Thu 02/05 15Z 0.17 3215  78  27 -13 0.00
Thu 02/05 16Z 0.15 3112  68  17 -12 0.00
Thu 02/05 17Z 0.16 3112  60   8 -12 0.00
Thu 02/05 18Z 0.17 3112  53   7 -11 0.00
Thu 02/05 19Z 0.17 3112  47   7 -11 0.00
Thu 02/05 20Z 0.15 3111  44   8 -11 0.00
Thu 02/05 21Z 0.13 3111  42   8 -11 0.00
Thu 02/05 22Z 0.09 3210  41   7 -10 0.00
Thu 02/05 23Z 0.06 3209  41   7  -9 0.00
Fri 02/06 00Z 0.04 3308  43   8  -9 0.00
Fri 02/06 01Z 0.02 3407  46   9 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 02Z 0.01 3404  46  10 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 03Z 0.01 0400  47  11 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 04Z 0.03 0601  43  11 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 05Z 0.03 1302  40  11 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 06Z 0.02 1604  35   9  -9 0.00
Fri 02/06 07Z 0.02 1706  32   8  -9 0.00
Fri 02/06 08Z 0.04 1806  33  12  -9 0.00
Fri 02/06 09Z 0.05 1906  33  25  -9 0.00
Fri 02/06 10Z 0.06 1907  35  41 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 11Z 0.06 1908  36  69 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 12Z 0.05 1809  39  83 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 13Z 0.04 1809  42  80 -10 0.00
Fri 02/06 14Z 0.07 1810  48  81 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 15Z 0.09 1910  53  67 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 16Z 0.09 1909  58  42 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 17Z 0.11 1908  61  34 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 18Z 0.16 2007  63  53 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 19Z 0.21 2006  67  69 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 20Z 0.16 2005  68  76 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 21Z 0.11 1906  72  87 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 22Z 0.11 1907  76  92 -11 0.00
Fri 02/06 23Z 0.13 1908  80  89 -11 0.00
Sat 02/07 00Z 0.17 1910  86  91 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 01Z 0.17 1910  91  87 -12 0.00
Sat 02/07 02Z 0.21 2011  92  86 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 03Z 0.25 2011  93  88 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 04Z 0.31 2112  92  87 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 05Z 0.28 2112  92  88 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 06Z 0.23 2111  92  87 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 07Z 0.20 2109  91  87 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 08Z 0.16 2008  91  87 -11 0.02
Sat 02/07 09Z 0.11 1907  91  86 -11 0.02
Sat 02/07 10Z 0.05 1805  91  85 -11 0.01
Sat 02/07 11Z 0.02 1704  91  85 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 12Z 0.02 1603  92  85 -12 0.01
Sat 02/07 13Z 0.05 2700  92  84 -12 0.02
Sat 02/07 14Z 0.04 3405  91  82 -13 0.02
Sat 02/07 15Z 0.09 3408  90  81 -13 0.02
Sat 02/07 16Z 0.07 3411  89  81 -13 0.01
Sat 02/07 17Z 0.04 3413  86  82 -14 0.01
Sat 02/07 18Z 0.06 3315  85  83 -15 0.01
Sat 02/07 19Z 0.07 3317  84  83 -15 0.01
Sat 02/07 20Z 0.08 3319  83  83 -16 0.01
Sat 02/07 21Z 0.09 3321  83  83 -17 0.01
Sat 02/07 22Z 0.10 3323  83  82 -18 0.01
Sat 02/07 23Z 0.10 3325  83  79 -19 0.01

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.27 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1