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Dangerous Heat in the East; Critical Fire Weather in the Southwest

Dangerous, record-breaking heat will intensify across most of the central and eastern U.S this week. Heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees. Heat is likely to continue across the eastern U.S. through the Independence Day holiday weekend. Critical fire weather conditions will continue today and likely Tuesday across portions of the Four Corners and northern High Plains. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260629_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 06/29 12Z 0.06 3511  73  34  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 13Z 0.13 0011  74  36  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 14Z 0.22 0009  76  39  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 15Z 0.51 0008  76  44  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 16Z 0.79 0006  73  47  13 0.02
Mon 06/29 17Z 0.68 0006  71  55  13 0.03
Mon 06/29 18Z 0.35 3506  69  59  13 0.03
Mon 06/29 19Z 0.20 3506  67  52  14 0.01
Mon 06/29 20Z 0.36 3306  66  41  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 21Z 0.36 3306  66  34  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 22Z 0.15 3305  63  38  14 0.00
Mon 06/29 23Z 0.09 3305  59  36  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 00Z 0.06 3405  54  20  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 01Z 0.04 3504  52   9  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 02Z 0.07 3401  53   5  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 03Z 0.21 2702  54   6  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 04Z 0.61 2704  55   9  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 05Z 0.77 2705  57  10  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 06Z 0.69 2706  58  13  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 07Z 0.60 2706  58  12  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 08Z 0.53 2706  59  15  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 09Z 0.59 2508  59  20  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 10Z 0.59 2608  60  28  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 11Z 0.60 2508  61  34  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 12Z 0.48 2407  61  38  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 13Z 0.61 2407  65  52  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 14Z 1.17 2309  71  56  13 0.00
Tue 06/30 15Z 2.00 2208  77  54  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 16Z 2.39 2210  78  65  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 17Z 1.38 2208  76  57  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 18Z 0.62 2106  73  73  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 19Z 0.30 1907  72  84  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 20Z 0.37 1910  70  89  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 21Z 0.33 1914  73  78  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 22Z 0.46 2015  80  74  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 23Z 0.50 2018  80  84  16 0.00
Wed 07/01 00Z 0.62 2121  87  85  16 0.00
Wed 07/01 01Z 0.72 2224  91  71  17 0.00
Wed 07/01 02Z 0.81 2328  95  55  17 0.01
Wed 07/01 03Z 0.88 2331  98  43  17 0.02
Wed 07/01 04Z 0.99 2434  98  38  17 0.04
Wed 07/01 05Z 0.96 2533  96  45  18 0.06
Wed 07/01 06Z 0.90 2631  95  62  18 0.14
Wed 07/01 07Z 0.77 2628  94  60  18 0.18
Wed 07/01 08Z 0.83 2630  95  32  18 0.11
Wed 07/01 09Z 0.58 2826  79  19  19 0.02
Wed 07/01 10Z 0.59 2826  91  15  19 0.00
Wed 07/01 11Z 0.54 2823  93  17  19 0.01
Wed 07/01 12Z 0.49 2822  90  17  20 0.01
Wed 07/01 13Z 0.43 2820  89  26  21 0.01
Wed 07/01 14Z 0.40 2819  86  28  21 0.01
Wed 07/01 15Z 0.38 2817  83  27  21 0.00
Wed 07/01 16Z 0.38 2917  77  21  22 0.00
Wed 07/01 17Z 0.38 2817  75  17  22 0.00
Wed 07/01 18Z 0.37 2916  72  17  23 0.00
Wed 07/01 19Z 0.37 2915  71  16  23 0.00
Wed 07/01 20Z 0.39 2814  74  31  23 0.00
Wed 07/01 21Z 0.39 2814  75  51  23 0.00
Wed 07/01 22Z 0.40 2713  77  36  23 0.00
Wed 07/01 23Z 0.44 2614  81  26  22 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.71 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1