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Severe Weather and Flooding Threats for the Central U.S.; Fire Weather Concerns for the Western U.S.

Severe weather and flooding threats will continue for portions of the central U.S. Rounds of heavy rainfall may cause impactful flash flooding in parts of southern Kansas and Missouri. Hot and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns for the Intermountain West, and dry thunderstorms may spark additional wildfires. Dangerous heat will build across the southern U.S. Friday into the weekend. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260625_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 06/25 12Z 0.17 2904  76  56  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 13Z 0.18 2703  75  54  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 14Z 0.41 2604  75  55  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 15Z 0.84 2404  73  54  10 0.00
Thu 06/25 16Z 1.79 2305  71  52  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 17Z 2.66 2306  70  57  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 18Z 3.29 2206  70  68  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 19Z 2.40 2106  70  77  11 0.00
Thu 06/25 20Z 2.03 2107  70  82  12 0.00
Thu 06/25 21Z 1.59 2107  68  79  12 0.00
Thu 06/25 22Z 0.99 2107  66  80  12 0.00
Thu 06/25 23Z 0.60 2208  69  85  12 0.00
Fri 06/26 00Z 0.40 2212  78  93  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 01Z 0.18 1912  76  92  11 0.02
Fri 06/26 02Z 0.17 1814  75  93  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 03Z 0.26 1917  78  91  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 04Z 0.34 1918  87  96  11 0.02
Fri 06/26 05Z 0.25 1917  92  97  10 0.09
Fri 06/26 06Z 0.21 1917  93  95  10 0.13
Fri 06/26 07Z 0.25 1919  95  92  11 0.16
Fri 06/26 08Z 0.31 2019  96  92  10 0.03
Fri 06/26 09Z 0.32 2018  93  86  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 10Z 0.28 2017  94  86  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 11Z 0.36 2018  96  91  10 0.14
Fri 06/26 12Z 0.36 2215  96  67  11 0.02
Fri 06/26 13Z 0.40 2315  95  75  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 14Z 0.38 2413  94  81  11 0.01
Fri 06/26 15Z 0.36 2411  93  62  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 16Z 0.38 2310  94  39  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 17Z 0.50 2311  94  33  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 18Z 0.71 2410  92  48  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 19Z 1.02 2412  89  51  11 0.00
Fri 06/26 20Z 0.81 2411  91  60  12 0.07
Fri 06/26 21Z 0.69 2512  93  64  12 0.16
Fri 06/26 22Z 0.61 2916  90  63  11 0.31
Fri 06/26 23Z 0.39 3015  85  54  12 0.05
Sat 06/27 00Z 0.34 3013  87  30  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 01Z 0.31 3012  90  30  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 02Z 0.29 2910  92  35  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 03Z 0.27 2810  93  34  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 04Z 0.28 2810  92  37  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 05Z 0.25 2910  91  34  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 06Z 0.22 3010  91  35  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 07Z 0.21 3010  92  39  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 08Z 0.15 3109  91  40  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 09Z 0.11 3208  89  41  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 10Z 0.11 3207  89  41  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 11Z 0.08 3206  88  46  11 0.00
Sat 06/27 12Z 0.09 3104  90  48  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 13Z 0.12 2904  92  51  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 14Z 0.10 2703  94  50  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 15Z 0.08 2502  96  48  10 0.00
Sat 06/27 16Z 0.08 2501  96  47  10 0.01
Sat 06/27 17Z 0.08 2601  94  46  10 0.02
Sat 06/27 18Z 0.05 2601  93  46  11 0.02
Sat 06/27 19Z 0.04 2601  92  43  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 20Z 0.05 2401  91  43  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 21Z 0.08 2302  92  44  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 22Z 0.05 2200  90  48  11 0.01
Sat 06/27 23Z 0.04 0101  91  60  11 0.03

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 1.47 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1