
A Flood Watch has been issued until 8 AM Monday for most of northern and central Vermont, outside of Grand Isle County, for heavy rain. Rainfall between 1 to 2 inches, with locally up to 3 inches, will be possible through this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through. Flash Flooding will be possible if areas receive multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20260614_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 06/14 06Z 0.53 2414 70 65 13 0.00
Sun 06/14 07Z 0.68 2418 67 66 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 08Z 0.71 2420 69 66 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 09Z 0.77 2323 80 67 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 10Z 0.78 2326 77 70 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 11Z 0.77 2426 75 62 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 12Z 0.75 2424 80 40 13 0.00
Sun 06/14 13Z 0.77 2522 87 34 13 0.00
Sun 06/14 14Z 0.74 2518 86 30 13 0.00
Sun 06/14 15Z 1.04 2416 84 41 13 0.00
Sun 06/14 16Z 2.54 2216 84 53 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 17Z 1.40 2118 82 67 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 18Z 1.52 2023 81 37 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 19Z 3.18 2123 76 32 15 0.00
Sun 06/14 20Z 3.53 2221 80 44 16 0.07
Sun 06/14 21Z 3.40 2119 81 63 16 0.01
Sun 06/14 22Z 1.06 2122 86 54 16 0.04
Sun 06/14 23Z 0.78 2121 78 48 16 0.09
Mon 06/15 00Z 0.56 2021 77 51 16 0.03
Mon 06/15 01Z 0.52 1925 78 65 16 0.05
Mon 06/15 02Z 0.59 1927 87 77 15 0.12
Mon 06/15 03Z 0.59 2028 93 84 15 0.20
Mon 06/15 04Z 0.98 2233 95 86 14 0.40
Mon 06/15 05Z 0.77 2226 93 89 13 0.20
Mon 06/15 06Z 0.53 2123 96 93 13 0.18
Mon 06/15 07Z 0.48 2219 99 96 12 0.44
Mon 06/15 08Z 0.53 2817 99 96 11 0.18
Mon 06/15 09Z 0.36 3121 96 89 10 0.06
Mon 06/15 10Z 0.47 3122 94 71 9 0.01
Mon 06/15 11Z 0.47 3121 93 54 9 0.01
Mon 06/15 12Z 0.50 3020 92 30 8 0.01
Mon 06/15 13Z 0.59 3021 92 19 7 0.01
Mon 06/15 14Z 0.68 3019 90 20 7 0.01
Mon 06/15 15Z 1.21 3018 92 15 6 0.01
Mon 06/15 16Z 1.76 3018 92 14 6 0.01
Mon 06/15 17Z 2.85 3016 89 12 6 0.00
Mon 06/15 18Z 4.20 3014 89 13 6 0.00
Mon 06/15 19Z 3.36 2913 89 15 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 20Z 2.83 2913 91 17 6 0.00
Mon 06/15 21Z 2.39 2915 89 20 6 0.00
Mon 06/15 22Z 1.73 2916 89 20 6 0.00
Mon 06/15 23Z 1.24 2917 91 19 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 00Z 1.01 2919 93 14 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 01Z 0.80 2921 92 13 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 02Z 0.60 3021 94 10 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 03Z 0.61 3022 94 8 5 0.01
Tue 06/16 04Z 0.50 3121 94 6 5 0.01
Tue 06/16 05Z 0.43 3121 93 4 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 06Z 0.35 3120 92 3 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 07Z 0.29 3219 91 2 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 08Z 0.28 3217 91 3 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 09Z 0.24 3215 90 2 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 10Z 0.23 3113 90 3 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 11Z 0.19 3111 90 9 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 12Z 0.17 3109 89 13 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 13Z 0.15 3006 87 13 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 14Z 0.19 2705 86 20 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 15Z 0.40 2605 85 32 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 16Z 1.18 2505 82 39 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 17Z 1.63 2505 76 41 6 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 2.16 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1