
Remnant moisture from Tropical Storm Rachel will persist over portions of the Great Basin and Southwest on Monday, bringing a potential heavy to excessive rainfall risk. Well above average and potentially record breaking temperatures will develop across the Plains and Midwest early this week, spreading into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast midweek. Read More >
Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20261012_1800
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 10/12 18Z 0.17 3112 84 59 11 0.00
Mon 10/12 19Z 0.27 3015 83 67 11 0.00
Mon 10/12 20Z 0.38 2918 88 73 10 0.01
Mon 10/12 21Z 0.45 2920 90 67 10 0.01
Mon 10/12 22Z 0.44 3021 92 66 9 0.01
Mon 10/12 23Z 0.41 3124 94 68 9 0.01
Tue 10/13 00Z 0.31 3222 96 63 8 0.01
Tue 10/13 01Z 0.25 3219 97 54 8 0.01
Tue 10/13 02Z 0.18 3216 97 63 7 0.01
Tue 10/13 03Z 0.09 3311 97 71 7 0.00
Tue 10/13 04Z 0.06 3407 97 95 7 0.01
Tue 10/13 05Z 0.07 0203 97 99 7 0.01
Tue 10/13 06Z 0.11 0803 98 99 7 0.05
Tue 10/13 07Z 0.17 1107 98 98 7 0.08
Tue 10/13 08Z 0.16 1311 98 98 7 0.06
Tue 10/13 09Z 0.10 1515 98 98 7 0.09
Tue 10/13 10Z 0.08 1519 97 96 7 0.07
Tue 10/13 11Z 0.06 1620 97 91 7 0.03
Tue 10/13 12Z 0.04 1720 97 98 8 0.02
Tue 10/13 13Z 0.05 1723 97 95 8 0.06
Tue 10/13 14Z 0.05 1725 98 98 8 0.03
Tue 10/13 15Z 0.04 1726 98 97 9 0.08
Tue 10/13 16Z 0.04 1729 98 98 9 0.05
Tue 10/13 17Z 0.05 1731 98 97 10 0.06
Tue 10/13 18Z 0.08 1732 98 88 11 0.09
Tue 10/13 19Z 0.10 1832 98 97 11 0.20
Tue 10/13 20Z 0.16 1831 98 99 12 0.14
Tue 10/13 21Z 0.24 1931 98 99 11 0.20
Tue 10/13 22Z 0.30 2027 98 85 12 0.11
Tue 10/13 23Z 0.36 2128 99 88 12 0.10
Wed 10/14 00Z 0.41 2228 98 90 13 0.14
Wed 10/14 01Z 0.47 2327 98 88 13 0.18
Wed 10/14 02Z 0.51 2327 99 89 13 0.18
Wed 10/14 03Z 0.56 2427 99 79 13 0.08
Wed 10/14 04Z 0.60 2427 99 83 14 0.07
Wed 10/14 05Z 0.72 2428 96 80 13 0.14
Wed 10/14 06Z 0.70 2427 99 79 14 0.09
Wed 10/14 07Z 0.79 2529 98 55 14 0.05
Wed 10/14 08Z 0.91 2530 97 28 13 0.05
Wed 10/14 09Z 1.02 2631 96 10 12 0.03
Wed 10/14 10Z 1.10 2630 95 15 11 0.02
Wed 10/14 11Z 1.17 2731 96 15 10 0.02
Wed 10/14 12Z 1.00 2731 96 28 9 0.02
Wed 10/14 13Z 0.79 2729 94 24 10 0.01
Wed 10/14 14Z 0.69 2729 92 19 10 0.01
Wed 10/14 15Z 0.66 2729 90 40 9 0.01
Wed 10/14 16Z 0.58 2827 88 52 10 0.01
Wed 10/14 17Z 0.62 2826 91 67 9 0.01
Wed 10/14 18Z 0.63 2826 92 64 8 0.02
Wed 10/14 19Z 0.64 2826 94 67 7 0.01
Wed 10/14 20Z 0.62 2826 95 75 6 0.01
Wed 10/14 21Z 0.60 2926 95 71 5 0.01
Wed 10/14 22Z 0.56 2926 96 61 5 0.01
Wed 10/14 23Z 0.53 3027 97 45 4 0.01
Thu 10/15 00Z 0.45 3127 96 26 4 0.01
Thu 10/15 01Z 0.37 3128 96 24 4 0.01
Thu 10/15 02Z 0.36 3229 95 20 3 0.01
Thu 10/15 03Z 0.39 3231 95 6 3 0.00
Thu 10/15 04Z 0.37 3231 95 1 2 0.01
Thu 10/15 05Z 0.39 3231 96 1 2 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 2.84 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1