Significant Weather Page - Flood Threat

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FLUS43 KJKL 240725
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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

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325 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight could bring
locally heavy rainfall where they are most persistent, leading to the
possibility of localized minor flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times through the period, with a
potential for locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

GREIF

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FXUS63 KJKL 241422
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1022 AM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Localized heavy rainfall may occur with showers & thunderstorms
today.

- Wet weather will last through most of the upcoming week, but
some drying may occur by next weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1022 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

Have incorporated trends from the latest model runs into today`s
forecast, with the greatest emphasis for precip being this
afternoon in our northern and western counties.

UPDATE Issued at 730 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 450 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a large area of relatively weak low
pressure over the Ohio Valley while stronger area of high
pressure is located east of the Appalachians. This is keeping the
pattern fairly locked in place with a stalled front to the east
and another west of Kentucky - all supporting a pooling of
moisture and instability through eastern Kentucky. As a result,
we are still dealing with a cluster of occasional CG producing
thunderstorms lifting northeast through the western part of the
JKL CWA even during this typical diurnal convective minimum in
the middle of the night. This slow, but at least progressive,
cluster of showers and storms has been able to leave behind some
excessive rainfall with a couple of Flood Advisories for the
western Cumberland Valley. Satellite shows these colder cloud tops
steadily lifting north with a weakening trend, though additional
activity appears to be developing in its wake. The local sfc
pattern has left skies mostly cloudy but did leave enough clear
patches to allow for patchy fog - locally and briefly dense. The
moist air mass in place also makes for quite high humidities and
consequently dewpoints are close to temperatures. These are
holding in the mid 60s, amid light and variable winds - away from
that thunderstorm cluster.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in pretty
good agreement aloft, through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict eastern Kentucky caught between strong
5h ridging off-shore of the Southeast Coast while dynamic
troughing is found to the northwest - through the Upper Midwest.
This longwave pattern is supporting a steady stream of southwest
mid-level flow through Kentucky with plenty of embedded energy
impulses. The latest of these waves is moving into the state to
the west in conjunction with the 5h trough line shifting east
toward the area. The moist and active southwest mid-level flow
continues tonight even as the main trough axis passes through the
Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley. The periodic energy that
moves through the flow will continue to be sustained by a
developing 5h trough over eastern Texas through Memorial Day and
beyond. Given the continued good agreement among the models, the
NBM was used as the starting point for the short term grids with
little changes needed. The main adjustments to the initialization
included adding higher resolution timing and placement details
for the PoP grids through Monday evening from the latest CAMs
guidance.

Sensible weather features a continuation of our humid and
unsettled weather with periodic showers and thunderstorms plaguing
the area through rest of the Memorial Day weekend - messing up
cookouts and other outdoor activities. The heavier activity will
likely be scattered around enough to forgo a flood watch, but
definitely some localized high water issues could develop where
training of the convective cells occur. Expect the ongoing
scattered showers and occasional thunderstorms to expand in
coverage through the morning with a trend toward more thunder into
the afternoon. Thereafter, much of the deeper moisture appears to
temporarily shift southeast into and through the night as a sfc
boundary shifts that direction. This will limit the convection to
our far southeast towards dawn Monday, but will likely work back
northwest during the day as weak high pressure to the north lifts
out of the area. Despite the high PoPs through the short term
period, the QPF does not appear to be too concentrated per the
CAMs consensus with daily lulls probably enough to prevent any
more than isolated and localized flood concerns. However, this
certainly primes the area with this pattern seemingly remaining
in place for a while and especially should a stronger, more
definitive, boundary develop or move into the area - providing a
distinct focusing and lifting mechanism for the convection.

The changes to the NBM starting point again mainly consisted of
including PoP and thunder details from the latest CAMs guidance
through Monday. As for temperatures and dewpoints, they were not
adjusted much given the moist air mass - but did shave the highs
back toward modeled hourly temps each afternoon and likewise
brought the lows up a tad at night as the high dewpoints limit
nightly temperature drops.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

The main change to the extended forecast this morning was to
add in a touch of terrain distinction to nighttime temperatures
Monday night into Tuesday morning where some very limited and
temporary drying is expected. Also, the rain making pattern this
week continues to keep a rain axis overhead or nearby. However,
there is indications that we may at least briefly get to dry out
over the next weekend.

The previous long term discussion follows:

The forecast period starts with a surface low moving eastward out of
the Ohio Valley. This surface low is progged to drag a cold front
through the area first thing Monday morning. This will provide
showers and storms early in the day, followed by a lull in activity
for the afternoon. However, by late afternoon, a surface wave moving
through the Deep South is forecast to eject north and lift a warm
front through the CWA. Showers and storms are expected to increase
in coverage Monday afternoon and persist through the overnight hours
before the front stalls as a stationary boundary, oriented west to
east across the Commonwealth for Tuesday.

This wavering boundary is forecast to stall Tuesday and remain the
focus for shower and thunderstorm development throughout most of
next week. Forecast PWs, driven by stout moisture advection,
alongside skinny CAPE soundings, continue to hint at efficient
rainfall production along this boundary. This supports a forecast
total QPF ranging from over 1.25 inches in the Bluegrass/I-64
corridor to up to 2.00 inches farther south toward the Tennessee
border. These numbers will certainly fluctuate depending on
convective activity and where mesoscale bands or heavier rainfall
set up. However, long-term guidance does hint at a breakdown of this
wet and stormy pattern late in the week as the stationary front
drops south as a cold front, bringing an end to the precipitation.
Lastly, temperatures are forecast to remain rather seasonal with
highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the low to
mid 60s. Once the front sags south, temperatures will cool a few
degrees, with lows dropping into the 50s.

In summary, an active and unsettled weather pattern will dominate
the region into next week as a stationary boundary stalls across the
Commonwealth. Seasonal temperatures will remain overhead, but
persistent rainfall, which will be heavy at times, could bring an
increasing threat for river and flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2026

Conditions were primarily VFR at TAF issuance outside any ongoing
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage of the convective
activity should generally increase through the day, with renewed
flight category reductions. However, forecast confidence on
details and timing is less than ideal at this time. Winds will be
light and variable, outside of any thunderstorms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...VORST/GREIF
AVIATION...GREIF