Significant Weather Page - Flood Threat

721
FLUS43 KJKL 200700
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-210700-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
300 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms could develop this evening across northeast
parts of the area.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon in southern parts of
the area and then across the entire area Sunday night into Monday
morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

GREIF/MARCUS

505
FXUS63 KJKL 200550 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
150 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures steadily warm through the end of the week, climbing
into the 70s on Friday/Saturday and towards the 80s on Sunday.

- A passing disturbance will bring chances for showers and perhaps
a thunderstorm to northern and eastern portions of the forecast
area on Friday evening/night.

- Expect gusty winds of 25 to 35 mph on Friday afternoon ahead of
that system.

- A better-defined cold front on Sunday night will bring more
widespread shower and thunderstorm chances and a noticeable
cooldown to the area. Strong storms cannot be ruled out.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 135 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids.
These minor adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers
along with a freshening of the SAFs and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 549 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026

No big changes to the forecast needed for this update, but did
update forecast to reflect latest obs and trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 227 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026

Early afternoon surface analysis reveals surface high pressure
centered over South Carolina, exerting a broad influence across much
of the eastern CONUS, including eastern Kentucky. To the west, a
surface low is tracking into northern Missouri, while to the north,
a 1011 mb surface low is dragging a cold front through the Great
Lakes. Despite these features, eastern Kentucky remains firmly under
the influence of the surface high, which is providing dry weather,
ample sunshine, and warming temperatures.

Surface high pressure will continue to dominate through the
remainder of the day, leading to dry conditions and temperatures in
the low to mid-60s. This pattern is being reinforced by upper-level
height rises occurring this afternoon and continuing through the
overnight hours. Tonight will feature clear skies and light winds, a
combination that will facilitate a ridge-valley temperature split;
sheltered valleys are expected to drop into the mid-30s, while
ridges are forecast to remain in the low to mid-40s. While eastern
Kentucky remains quiet tonight, a clipper system will dive out of
Manitoba and into the northern Great Lakes.

By Friday morning, this feature is progged to move into the Great
Lakes, placing the forecast area within the warm sector.
Temperatures are forecast to climb into the low to mid-70s,
accompanied by increasing surface winds as a LLJ moves into the
area. HREF probabilities for wind gusts greater than 30 mph are
between 50% to 60% across the heart of the CWA, but the forecast
utilizes an NBM mix weighted toward the 90th percentile for winds
through Friday afternoon. Along with the wind, chances for showers
and thunderstorms will increase as the associated cold front dives
southeast. Forecast soundings ahead of the front indicate limited
CAPE, but 45 to 50 knots of effective shear may compensate for the
lack of instability. Given these ingredients, the SPC has placed
most of the region in a Day 2 Marginal Risk, with all hazards
possible. However, the primary limiting factors are potential cloud
cover and a lack of deep moisture, both of which are reflected in
the lower instability values. Showers and storms will persist
through Friday night before tapering off toward the end of the
period.

The forecast period will be characterized by initial dry weather due
to high pressure, followed by increasing showers and storms Friday
night as a cold front tied to a Great Lakes clipper dives through
the region. Temperatures throughout the period will trend well above
seasonal averages.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 435 PM EDT THU MAR 19 2026

The period begins with an upper level ridge centered in the
southwest Conus extending across a good portions of the Rockies
and into the Southern Plains and sections of the Central to
Northern Plains as well. Meanwhile a broad trough should be in
place from eastern Canada to sections of the Great Lakes and
Northeast to east of the southeast U.S. coast. This leaves the
OH Valley in NW or WNW flow aloft to begin the period with a
shortwave trough shifting across the Southern Appalachians at
dawn on Saturday with a shortwave moving from the mid MS Valley to
Lower OH Valley. A weakening cold front/baroclinic zone will be
over eastern KY as the period begins.

Ahead of a series of shortwaves moving form the Pacific and around
the southwest Conus ridge an area of low pressure should begin to
take shape further west along the baroclinic zone in the Dakotas
while boundary should tend to lift back northeast out of eastern
KY. This should result in the region begin the warm sector.
However, the shortwave initially entering the Lower OH Valley
should track toward the Southern Appalachians/Southeast on
Saturday and may result in a few sprinkles or a stray shower near
the VA or TN border. Following that shortwave, the upper ridge
flattens as well as the pattern overall briefly with more of a
zone flavor on Sunday. Locally across the Commonwealth/Southern
Appalachians, mid level height rises are anticipated at 500 mb.
Meanwhile a ridge of sfc high pressure should remain from the Gulf
to northeast of the Bahamas while the shortwave/shortwaves moving
around the ridge progress from the western Conus to the Central
Conus Saturday night to Sunday. The upper trough axis reaches the
Upper to mid MS Valley by Sunday evening, nearing the Great Lakes
at that point as well as the OH Valley. West southwest flow will
increase on Sunday and be gusty between high pressure to the
southeast and the cold front associated with the shortwave trough
and sfc waves or waves that should be approaching the Commonwealth
from the west and northeast as Friday progresses. Recent Winter
systems have been windier and gustier than the NBM deterministic
at this time range that what ends up being realized and it is very
likely that considering the EC runs and ENS means as well as
BUFKIT momentum transfer from the 12Z GFS that sustained winds
and gusts will be higher during peak heating compared to NBM
deterministic and upward adjustments were made. This also helped
with messaging and DSS for potential extensive prescribed burn
plans across the area.

Temperatures trend higher for Saturday with the westerly flow and
slight uptick in low level moisture offsetting the temperature
increase and resulting similar min RH as compared to Friday. For
Saturday, highs are forecast to range through the 70s, with
departures of 15 to 20 degrees above normal. Moisture will not
increase much and min rh may be the lowest of the next 4 days for
most areas on Sunday afternoon, especially nearer to the WV
border. The lowest humidities both days should be in areas from
the Pottsville Escarpment/Daniel Boone NF to just west and
northwest of the Cumberland Mountains along the VA border. RH
could trend lower both days though it may be more probable on
Sunday despite a modest increase in low level moisture and
forecast highs may need to be increased. The forecast highs for
Sunday of 82 at both KJKL and KLOZ would tie the record high for
the date at both sites from back in 2012 and are on the order of
25 or more degrees above normal for this time of year. GFS and EC
MOS is actually warmer than the current forecast at both
locations, so the records for both sites may be broken in the
return flow on Sunday.

Convection Sun evening to Monday should focus mainly east of
I-75 per the guidance consensus. AI guidance with that system
based on ENS and the GFS continues to hint at the potential for a
few strong to severe storms possible, but timing and the degree of
moisture and instability are uncertain. A marginal risk for severe
storms may ultimately result as per SPC Day 4 to 8 outlook. Low
pops well into Monday from the NBM may be overdone as recent
deterministic guidance has much more clearing areawide by midday
or Monday afternoon with sfc high pressure building from the
Central Conus into the Great Lakes and OH Valley. 1000-500 mb
layer RH from recent GFS and ECMWF runs drops to the 25 to 40
percent range by Monday afternoon so drying and clearing should
occur quite quickly behind the boundary from what rain that
manages to fall. The high results in north to east winds later
Monday to Tuesday and temperatures nearer to or a few degrees
above normal. By Wednesday, return flow may bring temperatures
back to near 10 degrees above normal with even higher departures
of 15 degrees or more above normal for Thursday. Disturbances in
WNW to NW flow aloft should result in periodic increases in clouds
from Tue to Thu and perhaps minimal chances for showers from Tue
night to Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT FRI MAR 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF
forecast. A weak cold front approaches from the northeast late
this afternoon, and may also result in increasing cloud coverage,
but should remain in the mid to high range through 00Z Saturday.
Then, the front and any associated rain or storm chances could
briefly impact the KSYM or KSJS terminals (and possibly KJKL)
toward the end of the TAF period. There remains a large amount of
uncertainty with this system as far as coverage and extent, with
many models still painting a drier and more benign solution. As
for winds: look for them to be light and variable into mid morning
before picking up from the south to southwest at 10 to 15 kts
with gusts as high as 20 kts in the afternoon - diminishing to
light after sunset.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW/GREIF