Winter Weather Update

422
FLUS43 KJKL 080249
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
949 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-090300-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
949 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Thunderstorms are possible in some places at times from Monday night
to Wednesday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

GEERTSON

392
FXUS63 KJKL 080326
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1026 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers will linger into Sunday morning with a cold frontal
passage.

- Behind the cold front, a very modest and brief cool-down will
take place to start the week, followed by a return to
unseasonably warm weather.

- A stronger cold front will bring more showers and thunderstorms
around mid-week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1026 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

The back edge of the steadier showers stretches from Paintsville
to Jackson to Williamsburg at update time. This activity should
continue dropping southeast and exit into Virginia by around
midnight. The actual cold front (now stretching from Toledo, OH
to Louisville, KY to Memphis, TN) will continue to sag southeast
and likely generate additional light showers beginning as early as
1-2 AM in the I-64 corridor and spreading southeast across the
remainder of the forecast area through daybreak. Additional
rainfall amounts will be light, on the order of a few hundredths
up to one tenth inch.

UPDATE Issued at 718 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

The leading edge of the area of showers has crossed into Virginia,
leaving the air mass over eastern Kentucky stabilized, thus ending
the threat for any severe weather. Expect lingering light to
perhaps moderate showers to slowly diminish from northwest to
southeast through 5Z while temperatures hold in the mid 50s to
lower 60s. Additional showers, mainly light, are expected later
in the night with the actual cold front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 415 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

A cold front extends from MI southwest to TX at mid afternoon.
An area of showers and thunderstorms has progressed southeast well
ahead of the front and is entering the JKL forecast area from the
northwest. Temperatures ahead of the convective precip soared into
the upper 70s to mid 80s in eastern KY. With the mixing from the
heating, dew points have generally not climbed out of the mid to
upper 50s in most places, limiting instability from what it could
have been with somewhat higher dew points. Shear from wind fields
aloft is strong enough that when combined with the modest
instability, there is some concern for severe wx. To this point,
none of the storms in or near our area have taken off to a point
to need warnings, and are peaking below severe levels. However,
they will continue to be monitored. There has been some localized
training of cells which radar shows have left behind 1"+ rain in a
short period in a narrow corridor in our far northwest. With that
history, can`t rule out some isolated hyrdo issues.

The leading portion of the convection will progress southeast into
VA by around 7 or 8 PM. Rain will persist behind the leading edge
for a while before largely tapering off for a time. The actual
cold front will be passing through overnight and additional shower
development to some extent is expected near the front. However,
shear and instability will be reduced by then and strong
convection won`t be an issue. Any lingering showers taper off
Sunday morning and surface high pressure then builds in from the
west with decreasing clouds.

High pressure will be overhead to start Sunday night and then slip
to our southeast by morning. The clear skies and light winds will
allow for good radiating and cooling to start the night. Weak warm
air advection should return by dawn. This is expected to give us
at least modest ridge/valley temperatures differences.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

Next week starts off with a warm front southwest of the region which
is expected to progress northward through Monday. This will lead to
increased clouds heading into the early evening. With little or
light cloud cover prior, and light southerly winds, ridge valley
splits will probably set up across the CWA prior to showers and
storms spreading north overnight. While temperatures during the day
are expected to range in the low to upper 70s under mostly sunny
skis, temperatures at night are expected to cool into the low to mid
50s in valleys, and upper 50s to near 60 along ridgetops.

As this warm front pushes north, and eventually stalls over the
Great Lakes region, the forecast area will remain south of it,
benefiting from a deep moisture return and warm southwesterly flow.
This will support scattered shower chances, and temperatures in the
mid to upper 70s through Tuesday. With overcast skies and southerly
flow, temperatures may remain elevated in the low to mid 60s through
Tuesday night.

Tuesday evening heading into Wednesday, an upper level low in the
Southwest ejects northeast into the Central Plains. While this
occurs a northern stream digs into the Ohio Valley. These two
streams will phase Wednesday. With warm and humid conditions, good
forcing, and marginal instability showers and storms are expected
ahead of a strong cold front. This strong cold front will move
through Eastern Kentucky, with the greatest threat being damaging
wind gusts. During the day Wednesday, temperatures will likely hang
out around 80 or warm a few degrees into the 80s. After the cold
front moves through the area early Wednesday evening, temperatures
plummet into the upper 30s to low 40s.

Thursday, showers and perhaps a wintry mix move out of the area
during the morning with chances decreasing drastically by late
morning. The warning area will be under west-northwest flow and CAA.
This will lead to little daytime heating, and temperatures reaching
the mid 40s to upper 50s. Thursday nigh will likely hover around 32
for the low in the wake of the departing trough.

Friday and Saturday presently look to remain under quasi-zonal flow
and with isolated shower chances with high temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s, and lows in the mid 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026

An area of primarily showers (and a few isolated instances of
thunder) was crossing eastern Kentucky at TAF issuance. Mainly
VFR conditions were occurring, through briefly worse conditions
were noted under the heaviest activity. This activity should
depart into VA by 4-5Z. A second area of mainly light showers
will accompany a cold front passing from northwest to southeast
late tonight and early Sunday, bringing widespread MVFR to IFR
ceilings. On Sunday, improvement to VFR is forecast by the end of
the period for all but the far southeastern airfields (PBX, BYL,
I35, 1A6). Southwest winds 5 to 10 kts this evening will veer W-NW
behind the frontal passage at around 5 kts or less between 7Z
north of I-64 to as late as 14Z along the KY-VA border.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GEERTSON