Winter Weather Update

698
FLUS43 KJKL 020520 AAA
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
120 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030530-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
120 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...The rest of the night.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Thursday through Saturday,
mainly during the afternoon hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

GEERTSON/GREIF

386
FXUS63 KJKL 020540 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
140 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent and breezy southwesterly winds will continue
advecting a warmer-than-average and seasonably moist air mass
into eastern Kentucky through the remainder of the work week.

- Expect several consecutive days with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s, and mild overnight temperatures bottoming in the 50s
and 60s.

- Look for daily chances for showers and storms until a stronger
cold front moves through the region later this weekend.

- Any showers and storms will provide some needed rainfall across
portions of eastern Kentucky.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 120 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast with mainly just
the inclusion of the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky grids
and lowered PoPs to 14% or less through dawn. These adjustments
have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with a freshening
of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 1105 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026

Quiet weather is still expected across most of eastern Kentucky
through the overnight. However, a stalled boundary near I-64
could continue to be the focus for on and off showers (perhaps a
rumble of thunder) through the early morning hours, primarily near
and north of the Mountain Parkway. It will be mild everywhere
with widespread low temperatures in the lower to middle 60s (upper
50s in the northern cooler spots).

UPDATE Issued at 757 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026

Convection is gradually diminishing this evening with the loss of
diurnal heating. Once convection ends south of the Mountain
Parkway later this evening and overnight further north, quiet
conditions can be expected through the remainder of the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 418 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026

The latest surface analysis reveals a broad area of surface high
pressure centered off the Eastern Seaboard. To the north, a series
of surface waves with trailing cold fronts extends from New England
southwestward into the Oklahoma Panhandle and northwestward toward
the Pacific Northwest. Locally, the region remains within the warm
sector ahead of a cold front currently positioned from southern Ohio
through southern Indiana and into southern Illinois. Within this
warm sector, widespread south to southwesterly winds prevail, with
temperatures currently in the upper 70s to lower 80s. While areas
impacted by earlier shower and thunderstorm activity saw
temperatures drop into the upper 60s, these locations are quickly
warming back into the 70s. Although the bulk of the stronger storms
have moved to the east, the next round of activity is developing to
the northwest and tracking quickly toward the area.

Through the rest of the afternoon, showers and storms tied to the
aforementioned cold front will continue to develop and dive
southeast toward the JKL CWA. Even though a good portion of the
forecast area was worked over by earlier convection, SPC
mesoanalysis continues to show recovery, with supportive severe
indices in areas previously untouched. Across the Bluegrass and
south to the Tennessee border, SBCAPE has climbed to 1,500 J/kg,
with higher values toward the Cumberland Plateau. Similarly, MUCAPE
is upwards of 2,000 J/kg, and a tongue of DCAPE reaching 900 J/kg
exists where convection has not yet occurred. Effective bulk shear
remains limited, with values collectively under 35 knots across the
CWA. Given these parameters and the presence of a co-located surface
boundary, a watch has been issued in collaboration with SPC and will
run through 8 PM tonight. Convection is forecast to wane during the
overnight hours as skies clear. This clearing, combined with
antecedent moisture from Wednesdays convection, will likely promote
widespread and locally dense river valley fog

Thursday brings another day of high pressure while the region
remains within the warm sector. Southerly winds are forecast to pick
up again tomorrow afternoon. Similar to Wednesday, showers and
thunderstorms are progged to develop in the afternoon; however,
severe weather indices appear meager. Consequently, the SPC has
placed the entire CWA under a general thunderstorm risk. Activity is
expected to taper off in the evening, leading to a mostly quiet
night to end the forecast period.

The period will be highlighted by repeating showers and storms
alongside well above average temperatures. Highs each day are
forecast to climb into the 80s, while overnight lows will only dip
into the lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026

The models remain in good agreement with amplified flow
carrying through early next week. A closed low will move from the
northern/central Rockies to the Upper Midwest Friday into Saturday,
before reaching southeastern Canada by early Sunday. Northern stream
energy moving in from south central Canada will help reinforce mean
troughing east of the Mississippi River into early next week, while
a ridge axis is positioned from the northern Rockies through the
Desert Southwest. Model spread increases more notably thereafter, as
additional eastern Pacific energy moves onshore, with varying timing
and amplitude differences affecting downstream details.

Sensible weather will feature a continuation of the well above
normal temperatures, along with more diurnally influenced convection
across the area Friday into Saturday. Highs will top out in the low
to mid 80s, with lows in the 50s and 60s for Friday night. The main
cold front looks to move through Saturday night, allowing for a more
widespread rainfall across the area. Temperatures will cool off to
the 40s and 50s by early Sunday morning, with readings warming about
10 degrees during the day on Sunday under brisk west northwest
winds. As skies clear out Sunday night, temperatures will dip into
the 30s, with a potential for frost, as winds calm. Mainly dry
weather with near to slightly below normal temperatures will hold on
through the middle of next week, with additional nights of potential
at least valley frost if trends hold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT THU APR 2 2026

VFR conditions prevailed at all TAF sites at the 06Z issuance.
Widespread, locally dense river fog is possible in sheltered
valleys overnight but will likely not impact any terminals and mix
out toward 14Z. Gusty southerly winds then ramp up late this
morning/afternoon. Some more LLWS from the south southwest at up
to 45 kts will show up this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...JKL
AVIATION...GEERTSON/GREIF