746
FLUS43 KJKL 200109
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
909 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-201100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
909 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

A few thunderstorms are possible on Monday afternoon into Monday
night, mainly over south central and southeast Kentucky. There is
also a potential for thunderstorms at times from Tuesday through
Wednesday. Some of the thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night
could be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. However,
tornadoes and large hail can`t be ruled out. Some of the
thunderstorms could also bring heavy rainfall on Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

$$

HAL

521
FXUS63 KJKL 200656 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
256 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A significant cold front could produce multiple rounds of
thunderstorms on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Those storms will be
capable of severe weather and excessive rainfall.

- Mainly dry weather is expected from Wednesday night to Friday
with temperatures averaging about 5 degrees below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1107 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

Satellite imagery reveals fog developing in valleys where rain
occurred in the southern portion of the forecast area. There are
some low clouds present. They appear chaotic and not dominant at
this point, but it remains to be seen how things evolve. Have
reduced forecast sky cover in the south in the very near term.
Temperatures are slower to fall than was forecast (especially in
our northeast), and minor adjustments have been made for this, but
without altering the morning lows at this point.

UPDATE Issued at 903 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

The last of the precip is almost gone, and will fade out shortly.
The main question will become the timing and extent of fog
development during the night. There is potential for a low cloud
deck to affect mainly our southern counties overnight, which would
affect fog potential. With light winds in a moist surface air
mass beneath dry mid-upper levels, fog is favored should low
clouds not inhibit it.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

The latest surface analysis across the CONUS shows a 992 mb surface
low over the Canadian Maritimes, with a trailing cold front draped
across the Atlantic Seaboard. This cold front is presently moving
from north to south through the CWA. Along and ahead of the front,
showers and thunderstorms have developed and are slowly moving
south. To the north, surface high pressure is starting to build into
the northern portions of the area. Temperatures across the CWA range
from the mid 80s north of the Mountain Parkway to the lower 80s
south of the Mountain Parkway, where thicker cloud cover and
precipitation have occurred.

Through the remainder of the afternoon, the front will continue to
drop south through the region, with showers and thunderstorms
remaining present through sunset before dissipating due to waning
instability. The environment ahead of the front remains potent for
pulse thunderstorms, as upwards of 3000 to 3500 J/kg of SBCAPE
exists even with widespread cloud cover. Coupled with 700 to 1000
J/kg of DCAPE and PW values ranging from 1.5 to 2.0 inches, this
combination will favor thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rainfall and gusty outflow winds. The primary limiting factor for
organized severe weather remains a lack of sufficient wind shear, as
effective bulk shear magnitudes are less than 20 knots. Nonetheless,
once sunset arrives, convective activity will dissipate. Clearing
skies overnight will then favor the development of locally dense
river valley fog and in locations that received rainfall Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Monday brings another day with shower and thunderstorm potential as
a potent upper-level trough begins to dive southeastward out of
southern Canada. The forecast surface low will move into the
northern Great Lakes, lifting a warm front northeastward through the
Ohio Valley. As this occurs, Sundays cold front will return
northward across the area as a warm front. This will initiate WAA,
triggering the development of showers and thunderstorms and allowing
temperatures to warm into the mid to upper 80s. Forecast soundings
ahead of and behind the lifting front show a gradual change in the
thermodynamic profile of Eastern Kentucky. Increasing CAPE and PW
values confirm a robust moisture-rich WAA regime entering the
region; however, wind shear continues to remain the missing
ingredient for organized severe storms. Like Sunday, showers and
thunderstorms will dissipate after sunset, giving way to clearing
skies and another night of potential for locally dense river valley
fog.

A cold front moving south through the area today is triggering pulse
thunderstorms capable of heavy rain and gusty winds, fueled by high
instability but limited by weak wind shear. Activity will diminish
after sunset, leading to clearing skies and patchy river valley fog
overnight. On Monday, the front lifts back north as a warm front
ahead of an incoming Canadian upper-level trough, bringing a return
of warmer temperatures, high moisture, and another round of
unorganized, afternoon thunderstorms that will fade by Monday
night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026

The extended forecast period will start out active as Mondays warm
front lifts north through the area, bringing an increase in shower
activity overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Along with the
potential for early morning shower and thunderstorm activity, an MCS
is forecast to track southeastward toward the CWA from the southern
Great Lakes. The 18Z CAMs suite is starting to resolve this feature
at the far end of the forecast cycle. Model soundings ahead of the
approaching MCS depict a highly potent thermodynamic environment
capable of supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with damaging
wind gusts serving as the primary threat.

The 12Z NAM forecast sounding reveals MLCAPE values exceeding
2500 J/kg, effective bulk shear around 50 knots, and ESRH values
near 175 m2/s2. Additionally, 0 to 3 km shear vectors of
approximately 30 knots oriented orthogonal to the forecast UDCZ
indicate that the MCS will propagate into an environment highly
favorable for maintaining convective organization, where damaging
wind signatures and brief spin-up tornadoes are possible. However,
uncertainty remains due to meager low and mid-level lapse rates,
which may act as a limiting factor for deeper updraft
acceleration. As well as, the potential for ongoing shower and
thunderstorm activity that could overwork the atmosphere and
atmospheric recovery doesnt occur. Nonetheless, the area is under
a SPC Day 3 Enhanced Risk for much of the area and areas not in
the Enhanced area are in the Slight Risk category.

In addition to the severe weather risk, an elevated hydrologic
threat is forecast to develop. The southern flank of the MCS is
expected to become the focus for training thunderstorms. Deep
moisture will be in place with forecast precipitable water (PW)
values exceeding 2.00 inches. This exceptional moisture profile will
support highly efficient rainfall rates over already saturated
soils, increasing the risk for flash flooding. Furthermore, ensemble
probabilities indicate that integrated water vapor transport will
approach the 99th percentile of climatology. In collaboration with
the Weather Prediction Center, the Day 3 Slight Risk Excess Rainfall
Outlook has been expanded to encompass the entirety of the JKL CWA.

As the forecast MCS and the actual cold frontal squall line exit the
area through the day Wednesday, surface high pressure will gradually
build into the region. This will usher in a period of dry weather
and slightly below seasonal temperatures through late Friday
afternoon. Extended guidance then suggests that the next low
pressure system will bring a return of shower and thunderstorm
chances beginning late Friday evening and persisting through the
remainder of the weekend.

The extended period opens with a high-impact weather setup as a
potent MCS and cold frontal squall line moves into an unstable,
highly sheared environment on Tuesday. This system brings a distinct
threat of damaging winds, brief tornadoes, and flash flooding. A
cold front cleans out the area Tuesday night, introducing a cooler
and drier high-pressure regime from Wednesday through Friday
afternoon before another storm system brings renewed rain chances
for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT MON JUL 20 2026

At issuance time, a mixture of low clouds/stratus as well as fog
was over the south near a stalled boundary while further north
valley fog had formed and there also a few passing low and mid
clouds there as well. In some areas the fog and or stratus was
resulting in IFR or lower reductions. Further fog and or stratus
development during the first 6 hours of the period is the main
aviation concern. South of a KJKL to KSJS line, recent trends and
guidance support reductions to near or below airport mins for a
few hours through 14Z with KSME and KLOZ expected to be affected.
KSJS and KJKL should eventually have MVFR to IFR reductions as
fog lifts into those areas. At this point, VFR is expected to
remain throughout the entire period for KSYM and KIOB. Fog and any
low clouds should dissipate between 12Z and 15Z, giving way to
prevailing VFR conditions through the remainder of the period.
With the boundary lingering over the area isolated to scattered
showers and storms may affect locations generally south of a KSME
to KLOZ to KJKL to KLOZ line after 16Z. Winds will be light and
variable outside of any storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...JP