Winter Weather Update

495
FLUS43 KJKL 092037
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
437 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111-112-
114-116-101100-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Elliott-
Morgan-Wolfe-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley-Clay-
437 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible. Where they are most persistent, heavy
rainfall could lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times through the period. Where they
are most persistent on Wednesday morning, heavy rainfall could lead
to flash flooding. Heavy rainfall is also possible on Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to report any occurrences of flooding through
Wednesday morning.

$$

KYZ088-107-109-110-113-115-117>120-101100-
Harlan-Johnson-Magoffin-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
437 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible, and could bring locally heavy rainfall
leading to isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times through the period. Some of them
could produce heavy rainfall on Wednesday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected.

$$

HAL

393
FXUS63 KJKL 100030 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
830 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected at times through
Wednesday morning. Slow storm motions and a very moist
atmosphere will support torrential downpours and a flash flood
risk.

- Lower rain chances and more sun on Thursday will only serve to
make things more uncomfortable, with maximum heat indices of 95
to 100 for most places.

- A cold front brings widespread rain back to the region on
Friday, with a risk of strong storms and heavy rainfall.

- Somewhat drier air arrives for the weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 830 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

00Z sfc analysis shows high pressure well off to the southeast of
the state while lower pressure and a frontal system is noted to
the north. This has placed eastern Kentucky in the midst of a
warm and humid flow of air through the lower atmosphere making for
sticky conditions. All it took was an impulse traveling by aloft
to trigger rounds of storms for the region through the day,
though we now appear to be entering a lull for the second part of
the evening. However, most models, including recent CAMs continue
to suggest a renewed threat for storms and a possible inbound MCS
from the northwest into the Bluegrass region after midnight. Have
tailored the PoPs and thunder chances for this idea with this
update. Currently, temperatures are running in the low to mid 70s
most places. Meanwhile, amid light and variable winds, dewpoints
are generally in the uncomfortable low to mid 70s - indicating
high PW air. All the reason for the continued Flood Watch for the
western half of the JKL CWA which has been hit a bit harder these
past 48 hours. Have updated the forecast for those PoP
adjustments and also to to add in the latest obs and trends for
the T/Td/Sky grids. These minor adjustments have been sent to the
NDFD and web servers along with a freshening of the zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 521 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

A series of weak shortwave troughs aloft interacting with warm and
very moist air flowing into the region from the southwest is
resulting in showers and thunderstorms at times. One round
brought flooding heavy rainfall to portions of central Kentucky
this morning and then moved/developed eastward into the JKL
forecast area, but without the excessive rainfall. Clouds and rain
during the day prevented significant heating/destabilization over
the northern portion of the forecast area, limiting additional
thunderstorm development this afternoon. The most significant
development this afternoon has been in southern Kentucky to the
south of this morning`s activity. So far in JKL`s area, it has
been progressive enough not to be a hydro concern. The most
intense storms have been over south central and western KY south
into TN and are sinking southeastward, probably missing the JKL
forecast area this evening. Earlier, there were some models
suggesting this activity could have been a bit further northeast.

However, additional showers and thunderstorms are anticipated
during the night. Activity currently over east central IL should
expand and move/develop east southeast as the next shortwave
interacts with the moist southwesterly low level inflow with PWs
near 2 inches. Models bring this round into and through the JKL
forecast area overnight and on Wednesday morning with a potential
for training and locally very heavy rainfall. Exactly where the
axis of heaviest rain occurs is still uncertain, with some model
spread present. The western portion of the forecast area looks to
be most at risk, with the north/south location less certain. A
Flood Watch was issued for all but the far eastern part of the
area and remains in effect for tonight and Wednesday morning.

The nocturnal convection lasting into Wednesday will initially
slow diurnal surface based destabilization. The wave will also be
departing eastward and geopotential heights will be building over
our area in its wake on Wednesday afternoon. This should limit
additional development, but a bit of an uptick can`t be ruled out
in the afternoon and early evening. This should largely die out
during the night and clouds also decrease as drying aloft occurs.
With wet ground, this could set us up for fog being more
prevalent than usual by Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

The forecast period will begin with the area positioned within the
warm sector of a surface wave migrating through central Canada. The
upper-level trough and its associated surface low are forecast to
eject northeastward through the day Wednesday, slowly meandering
eastward. By the start of the extended period, the center of the low
will remain in Canada, while its associated cold and warm fronts
will extend into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, respectively.
This synoptic setup places the forecast area in the warm sector
ahead of the approaching cold front. Consequently, this will bring
an increasing 20 to 40% chance of showers and thunderstorms to the
area on Thursday, primarily focusing across the eastern two-thirds
of the CWA. As instability wanes toward the evening, thunderstorm
activity will decrease, giving way to partly cloudy skies. Areas
that receive rainfall and clearing skies could experience locally
dense river valley fog through Friday morning. Temperatures within
the warm sector are projected to climb into the upper 80s to lower
90s, before dipping into the upper 60s to lower 70s overnight.

Friday brings the approach of the cold front along with heightened
chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.
Probability of precipitation maximizes at 80% across much of the
area. Forecast soundings ahead of Fridays cold front indicate that a
potent thermodynamic environment could exist. Although forecast
vertical wind shear values remain meager, steep lapse rates combined
with both MUCAPE and MLCAPE exceeding 2,500 J/kg will be present.
Furthermore, DCAPE approaching 900 J/kg points toward a pulse
thunderstorm environment capable of producing gusty outflows.
Precipitable water values approaching 1.90 inches also lend credit
to heavy rainfall potential. This combination of factors has
prompted a Day 4 SPC 15% severe weather outlook alongside a Day 4
WPC Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall. Once frontal passage
occurs, skies will clear and weak surface high pressure will build
into the area by early Saturday morning. Pre-frontal daytime
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s, but
weak CAA behind the front will allow overnight lows to drop into the
low to mid-60s Friday night.

Surface high pressure will firmly build into the region behind the
front for Saturday into very early Sunday. Daytime highs are
forecast to start in the low to mid-80s on Saturday, climbing a few
degrees higher by Sunday, while overnight lows range from the low to
mid-60s each night. Unfortunately, this weak surface high pressure
will be pushed out of the area late Saturday night as a secondary
cold front drops southeastward into the region. This next system
will bring increasing shower and storm chances beginning Sunday
morning and persisting through the end of the period. Under the
influence of these persistent rain chances and subsequent cloud
cover, temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be notably cooler,
averaging about 10 to 15 degrees cooler than Saturday and Sunday.

The area will experience warm temperatures and a few storms on
Thursday before a strong cold front arrives on Friday, bringing a
high chance of heavy rain and strong, gusty thunderstorms. High
pressure will bring a brief stretch of dry and pleasant weather for
most of the weekend. However, a second cold front will move into the
region late Saturday night, causing rain chances to return on Sunday
and bringing much cooler temperatures for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT TUE JUN 9 2026

Conditions were mostly VFR at the start of the period, with some
spots of LIFR to MVFR from lingering convective patches for
eastern parts of the aviation forecast area - though currently waning.


These widely varying conditions are expected to persist through
the period, with showers and thunderstorms, at times. After a few
hours of a lull late this evening, the greatest potential for
additional showers and thunderstorms arrives early overnight and
lingers into Wednesday morning for our northern and central
terminals. However, confidence in the timing/location is just
medium at best, as reflected by plenty of PROB30 and TEMPO groups
in the TAFs through 18Z Wednesday. Then quieter weather should
prevail for a bit starting that afternoon. Winds will be less than
10 kts through the period - away from any storms.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>087-104-106-108-111-112-114-116.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF