Winter Weather Update

600
FLUS43 KJKL 190713
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
313 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-200715-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-
Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-
Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
313 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight. An
isolated severe storm producing damaging winds could occur along and
north of Interstate 64.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms are possible at times from Wednesday through Monday.
An isolated severe storm or two, capable of producing damaging winds
and hail, is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, mainly toward
the Big Sandy Basin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

CMC

988
FXUS63 KJKL 190702
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
302 AM EDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very warm and mainly dry weather will persist through this
afternoon.

- Showers and thunderstorms enter the forecast later today and
tonight, with active weather expected to continue through the
upcoming holiday weekend.

- The switch to an active and wetter pattern yields temperatures
closer to normal readings, and is likely to bring widespread
rainfall that is likely to provide at least temporary relief
from developing and ongoing drought conditions.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026

Upper ridging will gradually get nudged southeast through
Wednesday as a cold front reaches the area and begins to stall
near or over the area Wednesday afternoon. This stalling, or at
least slowing down, of the cold front occurs as the upper flow
becomes parallel to the cold front orientation.

PoPs gradually increase from the west through Wednesday as the
front approaches. Most if not all of the forecast area will stay
dry today with the ridging trying to hold tough to the east and
southeast while the front slowly makes progress, with highest
chances at showers or a thunderstorm in the Bluegrass region.
Chances for rain increase into the evening and overnight as mid-
level heights begin to gradually fall, as shortwaves move up the
Ohio River Valley, mostly but not completely skirting Eastern
Kentucky. If a storm, or storms, were to reach the forecast area
late this afternoon into this evening, there is sufficient shear
and possibly instability to support an isolated severe storm in
the Bluegrass region.

The front reaches the CWA from the northwest late Wednesday
afternoon, with a mid-level speed max of 35 to 45 kts developing
during the day just north of the area possibly providing enough
shear for an isolated strong to severe storm in the afternoon
should sufficient instability exists, which looks likely at this
time. The SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook expands the Marginal
Risk into far eastern parts of the forecast area, but future
outlooks may extend that further into the forecast area based on
the forecast evolution and placement of this mid-level speed max.

Highs will again threaten records in the upper 80s to lower 90s
today, but temperatures will begin to trend lower as humidity and
rain chances increase from the west and northwest for Wednesday,
with current forecasts suggesting lower to mid 80s across the
area, warmest in the Upper Big Sandy Basin where rain is likely to
hold off the longest into the afternoon.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026

If the long term period could be summarized with just one word, it
would be wet. The period will open Wednesday night with broad
ridging over the southeastern US and troughing over the Hudson Bay.
This will leave Kentucky in a regime of generally weak southwesterly
flow aloft. With broad ridging over the southeastern CONUS, the
surface cold front that passed through during the day on Wednesday
will struggle to continue it`s forward momentum through into the Mid-
Atlantic coastal states. Instead, it`s currently poised to stall
over the periphery of the ridge (TN area to the Mid-Atlantic)
Wednesday night and Thursday, before lifting into Kentucky again as
a warm front on Friday.

This pattern will bring multiple rounds of rain to the forecast
area. As such, WPC has introduced multiple Marginal (Level 1 of 4)
Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the forecast area; one for our
entire area Wednesday and Wednesday night (though expect most of the
rain to fall during the day Wednesday in the short term portion of
the forecast), another for the Lake Cumberland area on Thursday, and
a third for our entire forecast area again on Friday. QPF does not
look overly impressive on any given day; LREF guidance shows the
chance of exceeding 0.5 of rain on any given day is low to moderate
(maxing out at around 50% on Wednesday). However, this does not
account for enhanced rain rates in any thunderstorms that do
develop. If storms track over the same area for multiple days in a
row, isolated instances of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out.
This is especially true closer to the KY/TN border, which will feel
the greatest impacts of the stalling front. However, it should also
be mentioned that the Lake Cumberland Region is in a moderate to
severe drought - so any higher rain amounts that fall here will
likely be beneficial.

Thursday looks to be the coolest day of the period. Following the
frontal passage, CAA via postfrontal winds will keep maxTs generally
below normal, with a defined thermal gradient over our forecast area
as the front stalls. Currently, the NBM is outputting highs in the
upper 60s to low 70s for the north and upper 70s for the southern
CWA. The previous forecast package noted that the NBM had 80s in the
southern CWA, which appeared to be an outlier compared to other
guidance given the frontal passage, and had to be manually lowered -
so it`s good to see the latest NBM has corrected this issue. After
the front lifts northward again on Friday, flow will become more
southerly across much of eastern KY, and temperatures will begin
another warming trend accordingly. The NBM`s highs on in the upper
70s and low 80s may be slightly overdone given that rain is likely
going into Friday afternoon (80-90% chance), but will see how this
continues to trend as we move forward in time.

Unfortunately (for outdoor activities) or fortunately (for drought
relief), this weekend also looks to be quite wet. The boundary will
remain planted north of the CWA across the Ohio Valley, keeping much
of Kentucky in the warm sector with good moisture advection. This
will pair with a slow-moving upper level trough over the central
CONUS (strengthening SW flow into the Commonwealth), in addition to
potential embedded impulses moving across. The combination will
result in rain chances from Saturday through Monday, peaking during
the afternoon when heating/mixing/instability will be at it`s max.
Temperatures during this 3-day period will be fairly steady-state,
if not increasing slightly each day as southerly flow continues.
Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s, while overnight low will
be in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE MAY 19 2026

VFR conditions under times of high clouds will prevail through
the period. The one caveat will be some valley fog between 04Z and
13Z with local MVFR and IFR reductions that are not expected to
affect any of the TAF sites. Look for some cumulus to again
develop Tuesday afternoon between 4 and 6 kft agl. A PROB30 group
has been added for the end of the TAF period at KIOB to account
for the low potential for shower and thunderstorm activity which
will be approaching the area toward the end of the TAF period
Tuesday night.

Light and variable winds will be the rule for the remainder of the
overnight period, with southwesterly LLWS impacting western and
northern TAF sites between 07z and ~13z. Winds will increase from
the south to southwest at 5 to 12 kts again with some gusts up to
20 kts for Tuesday afternoon. These winds will diminish near
sunset, but more exposed sites will keep a light southwest wind
around 5 kts or so through the end of the TAF period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...FAGAN/JMW
AVIATION...CMC