Read the Hazardous Weather Outlook (click to read)
155 FLUS43 KJKL 072133 HWOJKL Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 433 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 KYZ058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-081200- Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne- McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe- Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher- Martin-Pike- 433 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible into tonight. A few storms could produce strong to damaging wind gusts through early this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible in some places at times from Monday night to Tuesday night, and again Wednesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed through early this evening. $$ KYZ044-050>052-081200- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan- 433 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible into tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Thunderstorms are possible in some places at times from Monday night to Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected. $$ HAL
Read the Area Forecast Discussion (click to read)
829 FXUS63 KJKL 072115 AFDJKL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 415 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorm will occur this afternoon into tonight near and ahead of a cold front. - Behind the cold front, a very modest and brief cool-down will take place to start the week, followed by a return to unseasonably warm weather. - A stronger cold front will bring more showers and thunderstorms around mid week. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 415 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026 A cold front extends from MI southwest to TX at mid afternoon. An area of showers and thunderstorms has progressed southeast well ahead of the front and is entering the JKL forecast area from the northwest. Temperatures ahead of the convective precip soared into the upper 70s to mid 80s in eastern KY. With the mixing from the heating, dew points have generally not climbed out of the mid to upper 50s in most places, limiting instability from what it could have been with somewhat higher dew points. Shear from wind fields aloft is strong enough that when combined with the modest instability, there is some concern for severe wx. To this point, none of the storms in or near our area have taken off to a point to need warnings, and are peaking below severe levels. However, they will continue to be monitored. There has been some localized training of cells which radar shows have left behind 1"+ rain in a short period in a narrow corridor in our far northwest. With that history, can`t rule out some isolated hyrdo issues. The leading portion of the convection will progress southeast into VA by around 7 or 8 PM. Rain will persist behind the leading edge for a while before largely tapering off for a time. The actual cold front will be passing through overnight and additional shower development to some extent is expected near the front. However, shear and instability will be reduced by then and strong convection won`t be an issue. Any lingering showers taper off Sunday morning and surface high pressure then builds in from the west with decreasing clouds. High pressure will be overhead to start Sunday night and then slip to our southeast by morning. The clear skies and light winds will allow for good radiating and cooling to start the night. Weak warm air advection should return by dawn. This is expected to give us at least modest ridge/valley temperatures differences. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday) Issued at 245 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026 Next week starts off with a warm front southwest of the region which is expected to progress northward through Monday. This will lead to increased clouds heading into the early evening. With little or light cloud cover prior, and light southerly winds, ridge valley splits will probably set up across the CWA prior to showers and storms spreading north overnight. While temperatures during the day are expected to range in the low to upper 70s under mostly sunny skis, temperatures at night are expected to cool into the low to mid 50s in valleys, and upper 50s to near 60 along ridgetops. As this warm front pushes north, and eventually stalls over the Great Lakes region, the forecast area will remain south of it, benefiting from a deep moisture return and warm southwesterly flow. This will support scattered shower chances, and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s through Tuesday. With overcast skies and southerly flow, temperatures may remain elevated in the low to mid 60s through Tuesday night. Tuesday evening heading into Wednesday, an upper level low in the Southwest ejects northeast into the Central Plains. While this occurs a northern stream digs into the Ohio Valley. These two streams will phase Wednesday. With warm and humid conditions, good forcing, and marginal instability showers and storms are expected ahead of a strong cold front. This strong cold front will move through Eastern Kentucky, with the greatest threat being damaging wind gusts. During the day Wednesday, temperatures will likely hang out around 80 or warm a few degrees into the 80s. After the cold front moves through the area early Wednesday evening, temperatures plummet into the upper 30s to low 40s. Thursday, showers and perhaps a wintry mix move out of the area during the morning with chances decreasing drastically by late morning. The warning area will be under west-northwest flow and CAA. This will lead to little daytime heating, and temperatures reaching the mid 40s to upper 50s. Thursday nigh will likely hover around 32 for the low in the wake of the departing trough. Friday and Saturday presently look to remain under quasi-zonal flow and with isolated shower chances with high temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s, and lows in the mid 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) ISSUED AT 147 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026 VFR conditions prevailed at the start of the period. Scattered thunderstorms were getting ready to enter the far northwest portion of the forecast area northwest of KIOB and KSYM. An area of more widespread showers and thunderstorms was further to the west and north. Southwesterly winds were gusting 20-30 kts most places. The area of showers/thunderstorms will transition southeastward this afternoon and evening, with coverage increasing over eastern KY, and IFR or worse conditions expected at times in the heavier showers/thunderstorms. Some of them could also bring strong wind gusts, but the widespread gustiness of the afternoon will subside this evening. After the heavier precip moves through, lighter showers should linger into the evening. As this happens, a deterioration to generalized low end MVFR or IFR conditions is also expected, lasting through the night. On Sunday, improvement to VFR is forecast by the end of the period northwest of a line from KSME to KSJS. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GINNICK AVIATION...HAL |
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