Area Forecast Discussion 
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ
 

-- Highlight Changed Discussion --

000
FXUS61 KPHI 031158
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
658 AM EST MON MAR 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL HEAD EAST AND OUT TO SEA LATE
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY THEN ITS PRIMARY CENTER SHIFTS TO MAINE BY THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST AND EAST FRIDAY.
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS THEN EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THAT FRONT
NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
645 AM: ADVISORY TRIMMED AND SNOW WITH DRAWN FROM THE FORECAST NEAR
AND N OF I78. AMOUNTS CUT BACK ELSEWHERE. WSW...MAPS AND PRODUCTS
UPDATED. DRY AIR (DEWPOINTS AT OR BELOW 5F CUTS OFF THE SNOW).

WE HAVE KEPT THE GREATEST TOTALS OVER THE DELMARVA AND TRIMMED
TOTALS ACROSS THE NRN AREAS. MUCH OF THE DEL VALLEY WILL STILL
HAVE MODERATE AMTS OF SNOW WITH HEAVY TRAVEL IMPACTS THIS MORNING.
WE WILL RETAIN REMAINING WSW FLAGS AS THEY ARE FOR NOW...WITH AN
EMPHASIS ON TRAVEL IMPACTS IN ALL AREAS. TEMPERATURES DROPPED
QUICKLY ONCE THE SNOWS BEGAN AND A LAYER OF ICE IS BENEATH THE
SNOW.

SNOW WILL END FROM N/W TO S/E TODAY WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SNOW. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
NORTH AS THE ARCTIC AIR SETTLES IN. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY NOT
RISE MUCH TODAY...INSTEAD MOSTLY HOLDING STEADY EARLY THEN FALLING
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL START THE DAY MOSTLY IN
THE TEENS...BUT DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT READINGS LATE. WIND CHILL
READINGS ABOUT 10 COLDER OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NE PA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED
OFFSHORE BY EARLY TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE FAIR WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLR
SKIES. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS OVERNIGHT. LOWS
WILL BE SUB-ZERO OVER THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ AND IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE BETWEEN -10 AND -15
ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE SRN POCONOS AND 0 TO -10
ELSEWHERE. THESE WIND CHILL VALUES ARE JUST SHORT OF WSW (WIND
CHILL) ADVISORY CRITERIA. WE WILL NOT ISSUE AND WSW PRODUCTS FOR
THIS NOW...BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT IT MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON IF
WINDS END UP BEING HIGHER...OR TEMPS FCST BECOMES LOWER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
500MB: RELATIVELY INNOCUOUS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE VERY
COLD AIRMASS MODIFIES. THEN A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS FOR A TIME LATE
THIS WEEK AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
USA...SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WEEKEND SHORT WAVE MOVING EWD FROM THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES...AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY...15 BELOW
NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO NORMAL OR A BIT ABOVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE POSSIBLY COOLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS...MOSTLY 00Z/3 GFS MOS GUIDANCE TUE-WED NIGHT AND
THEN 0543Z/3 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE THAT WAS MODIFIED USING ECMWF OP
GUIDANCE.


THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY AND MOST OF WEDNESDAY...DRY WITH VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD
COVER.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL BRUSH WITH THE SE
USA LOW? QUITE UNCERTAIN. SINCE THE HIGH BECOMES STRONG NEAR MAINE
BY THURSDAY...ENOUGH ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDINESS WITH POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF LIGHT MIXED PCPN.

FRIDAY...FOR NOW LOOKS DRY WITH THE SE USA LOW HEADING SEAWARD.

NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE MAY DEVELOP ON THE COLD FRONT PASSING
THRU THE REGION WHICH WOULD COMPLICATE MATTERS...SO HAVE A LOW CHC
OF PCPN.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE WINTER STORM IS PRESENTLY AFFECTING THE SRN TAF SITES THE
GREATEST WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN VFR AT KABE...WHILE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT
KTTN AND KRDG. WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF VERY POOR CONDITIONS
AT ALL THE TERMINALS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KTTN-KRDG THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. VARYING CONDITIONS AT
KTTN,KPNE AND KRDG WILL BECOME VFR SOONER WHILE MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS REMAIN AT KABE. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS EXPECTED. SOME BLOWING SNOW MAY BECOME AN ISSUE
LATER...BUT WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE 06Z TAFS FOR NOW. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING NORTH WIND.


OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR OCNL CIGS AOA 10000 FT.
LIGHT WIND.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING WITH A
SMALL CHANCE OF IFR CONDS IN SPOTTY PCPN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AT
NIGHT? WIND BECOMING NE G 10-15 KT. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVG.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE. NE WIND. CONFIDENCE BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO THE SOUTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WHILE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG FOR THE WATERS TODAY ACROSS ALL
WATERS...AND TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE OCEAN WATERS. NO CHANGES WILL
BE MADE ATTM. SNOW/RAIN WILL BE ON THE WATERS THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DEL/SRN NJ/DEL BAY AREAS...LIGHTER
AMOUNTS FURTHER NORTH. FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS FROM OFF MANASQUAN INLET TO OFF FENWICK ISLAND DUE TO
NORTHERN WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FEET.
LIGHT TO MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE
HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ON OUR OCEAN WATERS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE FOLLOWING HAS BEEN DEVELOPED FROM MANY RESOURCES OVER THE
PAST WEEK OR SO.

KABE...THE CURRENT 38 CONSECUTIVE DAYS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WILL
PROBABLY EXTEND TO AT LEAST 45 DAYS (FRIDAY MARCH 7TH) WHICH WOULD
EQUAL THE 4TH LONGEST CONSECUTIVE DAY STREAK WITH SNOW ON THE
GROUND SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN ALLENTOWN IN 1923.

KABE CONSECUTIVE DAY RANKING
1. 78 DAYS ENDING MARCH 22 1994.
2. 59 DAYS ENDING MARCH 13 1978
3 TIE 49 DAYS ENDING FEB 12 1977 AND FEB 19 1925
4. 45 DAYS ENDING MARCH 4 1936
5. 43 DAYS ENDING FEB 2 1970


RECORD LOWS (POR EQUAL PERIOD OF RECORD)

    MARCH 3   MARCH 4
(AT 1159PM?)

ACY 5-2009    3-2009    POR 1874
PHL 10-1886   7-1943    POR 1872
ILG 9-2009/1925  5-1943 POR 1894
ABE 8-1950/1925  3-1943 POR 1922
TTN 5-1868       1-1868 POR 1865
GED 9-2009       6-2009 POR 1948
RDG 9-2009/1980/1925  7-1943 AND 1913   POR 1869
MPO -2 2003      -6-1943                POR 1865

SEASONAL SNOWFALL RANKINGS AS OF 1 AM EST 3/3/14

PHL 59.5 #3  OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1884
1. 78.7 2009-2010
2. 65.5 1995-1996
3. 59.5 2013-2014
4. 55.4 1898-1899

ABE 66.9 #4 OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1922

1. 75.4 1993-1994
2. 71.4 1995-1996
3. 67.2 1966-1967
4. 66.9 2013-2014
5. 65.2 1960-1961

ILG 48.4 #4  OFFICIAL RECORDS BACK TO 1894
1. 72.8 2009-2010
2. 49.5 1957-1958
3. 48.8 1906-1907 (MISSING DAYS IN THE DATABASE FOR THIS SEASON)
4. 48.4 2013-2014
5. 46.1 2002-2003

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR PAZ070-071-102-
     104.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ101-
     106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR NJZ017>020-026-
     027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016-
     021>025.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     NJZ013>015.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001-
     002.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     450.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA/DRAG 657AM
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...