Decision Support Page for Cape May County

Forecast Discussion

521
FXUS61 KPHI 021815
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
215 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Widespread fog will develop tonight with patchy dense fog
likely around daybreak Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.Stationary boundary south of the Delmarva Peninsula will lift
north as a warm front late tonight through Friday morning.
Conditions warm up Friday afternoon.

2.A warm front lifts north of the region Saturday before a cold
front crosses the region Sunday, bringing a few rounds of
showers and thunderstorms before ushering in more seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Stationary boundary south of the Delmarva
Peninsula will lift north as a warm front late tonight through
Friday morning. Conditions warm up Friday afternoon.

High pressure remains over eastern Canada, and onshore flow
keeps a relatively cold for this time of the year airmass over
the area for the rest of the day and through tonight. This high
will move over the Canadian Maritimes this evening before
departing Friday morning. Meanwhile, low pressure over the
Midwest will lift to the north and east tonight into south-
central Canada. This low will track across southern Canada on
Friday. A stationary boundary extend out from this low and lies
across the Mid-Atlantic, just south of the Delmarva Peninsula.
As low pressure lifts to the north and east, then eventually to
the east, that stationary boundary will begin to lift north as a
warm front late tonight. The warm front does not look to clear
the northern zones until late Friday afternoon.

In terms of sensible weather, conditions remain cloudy, cool,
and foggy for the rest of the day and into tonight. Another weak
boundary out ahead of that low will lift north through the
northern half of the forecast area, and this may touch off some
showers with minimal QPF. With increasing low level moisture and
a strong inversion up to around 950 mb, fog and stratus is
likely to develop. The true surge in low level moisture arrives
with the passage of the main warm front Friday morning. However,
it does not look as if the inversion will break until sometime
Friday afternoon. As a result, conditions will remain cloudy and
foggy through much of Friday morning, and it will take some
time for temperatures to warm up. Look for temperatures to
remain in the 40s and 50s for most of the morning, not really
warming up until skies clear out and the inversion breaks late
Friday afternoon. There could even be some patchy dense fog just
after sunrise as well, and a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed
for a few hours Friday morning. Strong warm air advection will
be underway late Friday afternoon. and highs will be well in the
70s.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A warm front lifts north of the region Saturday
before a cold front crosses the region Sunday, bringing a few
rounds of showers and thunderstorms before ushering in more
seasonable temperatures.

A warm front is expected to lift north through the region on
Saturday as low pressure begins to shift northeastward out of
the Great Lakes region. Scattered showers will be possible in
the vicinity of the front through the day Saturday, with highest
chances across northern parts of the area. There may be enough
elevated instability to allow for a few rumbles of thunder.
Otherwise, much warmer temperatures will surge into the region,
highs on Saturday rising into the mid 70s to low 80s outside of
the Poconos and near the coast, where mid 60s are expected. Lows
Saturday night look to generally be in the 40s and 50s, but may
remain above 60 in parts of Delmarva.

There will likely be a relative lull in shower chances early
Sunday with the region in the warm sector ahead of a cold front
that will sweep across the region by Sunday afternoon. High
temperatures on Sunday will be highly dependent on the timing of
the frontal passage which remains somewhat in question, but
there should be enough time for most of NJ southward into
Delmarva to rise into the low-mid 70s. Widespread showers and
scattered thunderstorms are expected along and just ahead of the
cold front. As of right now, any severe weather threat looks
quite limited with the primary limiting factor being the degree
of destabilization, with meager instability at best depicted in
model guidance. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible given
rich moisture in place, and PWATs around 1.5", which is well
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. However, given
that this is expected to be a fast moving system, flash flooding
is not currently expected to be a concern. Total rainfall
amounts look to be in the neighborhood of 0.5", though locally
higher amounts could occur in heavier showers or storms. Breezy
conditions are likely on Sunday even outside of any showers and
storms with southwesterly winds gusting 25-35 mph ahead of the
front, with similar westerly winds behind it.

In the wake of the cold front, temperatures are expected to
return to near or even slightly below normal, with highs mostly
in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s through mid-week. A slow
warm up may begin Thursday and beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Mostly IFR CIGs in low stratus with patchy MVFR
VSBYs in BR. CIGs may lift to MVFR (1000 to 1500 ft) from time
to time prior to 00Z, mainly at KABE-KTTN-KPNE-KPHL. E winds 10
to 15 kt with 20 to 25 kt gusts. Moderate confidence.

Tonight...CIGs lower to LIFR prior to 06Z. MVFR to IFR VSBYs in
BR for most of the night. VSBYS will drop to less than 1SM just
before 12Z. E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming LGT/VRB after 09Z.
Moderate confidence.

Friday...Low CIGs and VSBYs for much of the morning, with VSBYS
less than 1SM and CIGs less than 500 ft. Conds improve by 18Z,
and should be VFR by 21Z. S winds 5 to 10 kt in the morning,
increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after 18Z.
Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Friday night...Primarily VFR. A few showers during the evening
could lead to brief sub-VFR conditions.

Saturday through Saturday night...Sub-VFR conditions are
possible at times in showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms.

Sunday...Sub-VFR expected with a period of showers and storms.
Gusty winds likely through the day Sunday.

Sunday night...Conditions improve to VFR after the evening
hours.

Monday through Tuesday...Primarily VFR. There is a slight
chance (around 20%) for a few showers Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the ocean waters
from Sandy Hook NJ to Great Egg Inlet, NJ, but has been extended
to 6 am Friday. Though winds will diminish this evening, seas
will remain elevated for much of tonight.

E winds 15 to 20 kt with 25 to 30 kt gusts with 6 to 8 ft seas
where the SCA is in effect, with winds diminishing to around 10
kt tonight. Seas subside to 3 to 5 ft. Outside of the SCA, E
winds range from 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt with 2 to 4
ft seas. Winds diminish to 5 to 10 kt tonight.

On Friday, winds turn S 5 to 10 kt in the morning, increasing
to 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt possible late. Seas 2 to 4 ft,
possibly building to 3 to 5 ft late. A new SCA may be needed
for late Friday.

Fog will be developing on the waters tonight, with VSBYs from 1
to 3 NM, and VSBYs may even be less than 1 NM Friday morning. A
Marine Dense Fog Advisory may be needed in the morning. VSBYs
should improve Friday afternoon.

Outlook...

Friday night...SCA conditions likely in the evening hours.
Southwest winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, decreasing to
around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3-6 feet
decreasing to 2-4 feet.

Saturday...No marine headlines currently anticipated with winds
under 25 kt and seas under 5 feet.

Saturday night through Sunday...SCA conditions likely with
gales possible. Southerly winds Saturday night will increase to
15-25 kt with gusts to 30-35 kt. Winds will become southwesterly
on Sunday. Seas 4-8 feet.

Sunday night through Monday...Lingering SCA conditions likely.
Winds quickly subside to below 25 kt. Seas remain elevated near
5 feet through Monday morning before decreasing below 5 feet by
Monday afternoon.

Monday night through Tuesday...No marine headlines currently
anticipated with winds under 25 kt and seas under 5 feet.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for ANZ450>452.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cooper/MPS
AVIATION...Cooper/MPS
MARINE...Cooper/MPS

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Data at: 0000 UTC 03 Sep 2023

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