Atmospheric River to Begin to Impact the Northwest U.S.; Gusty Winds in the Northeast U.S.

A strong atmospheric river moving into northern California later Tuesday will bring a threat for moderate to heavy rainfall and flooding, gusty to high winds, and mountain snows for parts of the Northwest U.S. through at least Wednesday. Gusty winds and isolated rain and snow showers will continue in the Northeast U.S. Tuesday behind a cold front. Read More >

Overview

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KDIX radar loop from 3:14pm through 4:08pm EDT showing the development of the Mercer County Tornado. The tornado reached a peak intensity of EF2.

Environment
Warnings
Storm Reports
LSR
Tornado
Radar

Meteorological Environment/Setup

Synoptic Overview at 12z 21 Feb 2023 (courtesy of SPC)


Figure 1: 250-mb analysis	Figure 2: 300-mb analysis	Figure 3: 500-mb analysis


Figure 4: 700-mb analysis	Figure 5: 850-mb analysis	Figure 6: 925-mb analysis

Synoptic Overview at 00z 22 Feb 2023 (courtesy of SPC)


Figure 7: 250-mb analysis	Figure 8: 300-mb analysis	Figure 9: 500-mb analysis


Figure 10: 700-mb analysis	Figure 11: 850-mb analysis	Figure 12: 925-mb analysis

Surface Maps (courtesy of WPC)


Figure 13: 12z surface map	Figure 14: 15z surface map	Figure 15: 18z surface map


Figure 16: 21z surface map	Figure 17: 00z surface map

Observed and Forecast Soundings


Figure 18: 12z Sterling, VA sounding	Figure 19: 12z Wallops Island, VA sounding	Figure 20: 12z Upton, NY sounding


Figure 21: 00z Sterling, VA sounding	Figure 22: 00z Wallops Island, VA sounding	Figure 23: 00z Upton, NY sounding

Preliminary Storm Reports


Figure 1: National Preliminary Reports 12z 21 Feb 2023 to 12z 22 Feb 2023	Figure 2: Zoomed Preliminary Reports for the same period.	Figure 3: Evolution of SPC outlooks leading into this event, beginning with an initial indication of severe weather potential on the Day 4 outlook for Feb 21.

Watches, Warnings, and Advisories Issued

Click here for a county warning area zoomable archive of the warnings/advisories issued for the 21 Feb 2023 event.

Preliminary Local Storm Reports

NWUS51 KPHI 220302
LSRPHI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1002 PM EST TUE FEB 21 2023

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NW ELSINBORO TWP      39.57N 75.53W
02/21/2023  M42 MPH          ANZ430             NJ   MESONET          

            LOCUST AVENUE MESONET IN SOUTH JERSEY 
            REPORTED 42 MPH GUST. 

0330 PM     HAIL             LAWRENCEVILLE           40.30N 74.73W
02/21/2023  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR   

             

0330 PM     HAIL             LAWRENCEVILLE           40.30N 74.73W
02/21/2023  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             NJ   PUBLIC           

             

0330 PM     HAIL             PENNINGTON              40.33N 74.79W
02/21/2023  E1.00 INCH       MERCER             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER  

             

0339 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N EDINBURG            40.27N 74.62W
02/21/2023                   MERCER             NJ   BROADCAST MEDIA  

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTS LARGE TREES DOWN ON 
            DUNBAR DRIVE AND CONOVER ROAD IN WEST 
            WINDSOR, NJ. POSSIBLE TORNADO. 

0340 PM     HAIL             1 NE HAMILTON SQUARE    40.23N 74.64W
02/21/2023  E0.50 INCH       MERCER             NJ   TRAINED SPOTTER  

             

0340 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON SQUARE         40.23N 74.65W
02/21/2023  E0.75 INCH       MERCER             NJ   PUBLIC           

             

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE LAWRENCE TWP      40.28N 74.71W
02/21/2023                   MERCER             NJ   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS 

            ROUTE 1 CLOSED AT INTERSECTION OF FRANKLIN 
            CORNER ROAD DUE TO POWER LINES DOWN. 

0340 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PENNINGTON              40.33N 74.79W
02/21/2023                   MERCER             NJ   NWS EMPLOYEE     

            NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTS DAMAGE ON QUAKERBRIDGE 
            ROAD. POSSIBLE TORNADO. 

0344 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 1 WSW FORTESCUE         39.23N 75.19W
02/21/2023  M41 MPH          ANZ430             NJ   MESONET          

            FORTESCUE MESONET REPORTED 41 MPH GUST AT 
            3:44 PM. 

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PENNINGTON              40.33N 74.79W
02/21/2023                   MERCER             NJ   PUBLIC           

            POSSIBLE TORNADO IN QUAKER BRIDGE. REPORT OF 
            TREES AND WIRES ON A CAR. 

0430 PM     WATER SPOUT      2 SE SPRING LAKE HEIGHT 40.14N 74.02W
02/21/2023                   ANZ450             NJ   BROADCAST MEDIA  

            BROADCAST MEDIA PASSED ALONG A VIDEO FROM 
            SEA GIRT OF A WATERSPOUT OFFSHORE. TIME 
            ESTIMATED VIA RADAR. 

0455 PM     HAIL             1 NNE TOMS RIVER        39.96N 74.19W
02/21/2023  E1.00 INCH       OCEAN              NJ   PUBLIC           

            PUBLIC REPORTED QUARTER SIZE HAIL IN TOMS 
            RIVER. 


&&

$$

Public Information Statement - Tornado

NOUS41 KPHI 222053
PNSPHI
NJZ015-230900-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
353 PM EST Wed Feb 22 2023

...NWS Damage Survey for 02/21/23 Tornado Event ...

Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front developed rotation
over Mercer County. In addition to wind damage and hail reports, 
a tornado occurred in Mercer County.

.Lawrence Township and West Windsor Township Tornado...

Rating:                 EF-2
Estimated Peak Wind:    110-115 mph
Path Length /statute/:  5.8 miles
Path Width /maximum/:   200 yards
Fatalities:             0
Injuries:               0

Start Date:             February 21, 2023
Start Time:             3:35 PM EST
Start Location:         Lawrence Township, Mercer County, NJ
Start Lat/Lon:          40.2785/-74.7028

End Date:               February 21, 2023
End Time:               3:41 PM EST
End Location:           West Windsor Township, Mercer County, NJ
End Lat/Lon:            40.2701/-74.5931

Sporadic minor tree damage was observed west of Interstate 295. A
continuous path of tree damage was observed near Lawrence Station
Road, particularly in a housing development along Fountayne Lane.
Additional tree damage and damage to roofing occurred in a housing 
development at Lawrence Square. Estimated maximum wind speeds in 
this area were 105 to 115 mph. In a straight line from this 
damage, there was roofing damage at a residence and a commercial 
building as well as additional tree damage along Quaker Bridge 
Road. Tree damage continued at a park across the street and 
through the 2nd and 11th holes at the adjacent golf course. 
Additional sporadic tree damage occurred in residential areas east 
of the golf course in West Windsor Township. The last tree damage 
was observed near the intersection of Old Trenton Road and Village
Road.

The National Weather Service would like to extent our 
appreciation to New Jersey State Police, Mercer County Office of 
Emergency Management, and Lawrence Township Police Department for 
their help with the survey.


&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

Brudy/Lee/Johnson