Tampa Bay Area, FL

Weather Forecast Office

Winter Outlook 2026-27 and ENSO's Effect on Our Weather

Very Strong El Niño Expected to Continue through the Upcoming Winter
The outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for the upcoming winter of 2026-27 is saying that very strong El Niño conditions are favored to continue through winter into next spring. Based on this, the overall forecast for West Central and Southwest Florida for the upcoming winter (December, January, and February) is below. West Central and Southwest Florida Winter 2026-27 Outlook: Temperatures: The temperature forecast for West Central and Southwest Florida for the upcoming winter is for near normal temperatures as can be seen in the Climate Prediction Center Winter Outlook graphics below. However, if you take a closer look within the "Local Temperature" tab below, you'll notice that historically there have been some month-to-month differences, with December tending to average near to slightly above normal, while January and February tend to average below normal during a strong/very strong El Niño. Rainfall: Above normal rainfall is expected as the jet stream should be further south, and therefore positioning the storm track be across the southern U.S. This aligns with the long-term trend of above normal winter rainfall across our area during an El Niño phase. Consequently, as low-pressure systems and associated cold fronts move across the region, drought conditions will likely improve as we progress through the winter. Severe Weather: With the jet stream and storm tracks farther south in this phase, storminess tends to increase. This leads to more severe weather events during a Very Strong El Niño compared to other ENSO phases. Freezes: There will likely be a few freezes across the region, especially the Nature Coast. This has more to do with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) than the ENSO phase. The AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is limited to a couple of weeks. More local information about how the AO affects the weather across the Florida peninsula can be found at Arctic Oscillation: Impacts on West Central and Southwest Florida.
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CPC Outlook for Winter 2026-27:
With a Very Strong El Niño expected during the upcoming Winter the overall forecast for West Central and Southwest Florida is for near normal temperatures and above normal rainfall as can be seen in Winter Outlook graphics below. This fits the long term trend across our area during an El Niño phase of near normal temperatures during the Winter with rainfall during these months usually above normal. Bouts of severe weather are also more likely during a Very Strong El Niño, so it could be an active winter into early spring across the Florida peninsula. There will also likely be a few freezes across the region, especially the Nature Coast, but prolonged cold weather is not anticipated at this time. Residents of West Central and Southwest Florida should remain informed of potential weather events this upcoming winter and early spring and stay tuned to local media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for the latest weather information. Outlook graphics for the entire U.S. and localized graphics for the NWS Tampa Bay forecast area are below.
CPC U.S. Outlook Graphics for Winter 2026-27:


CPC NWS Tampa Bay Outlook Graphics for Winter 2026-27:

ENSO State:
ENSO Phase Meter		Tropical Pacific SST Anomalies
Link to CPC ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

What is ENSO? El Niño and La Niña are the warm and cool phases of a recurring climate pattern across the tropical Pacific—the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or “ENSO” for short. The pattern shifts back and forth irregularly every two to seven years, bringing predictable shifts in ocean surface temperature and disrupting the wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics. These changes have a cascade of global side effects.		ENSO Cross Section over Pacific Ocean

Though ENSO is a single climate phenomenon, it has three states, or phases, it can be in. The two opposite phases, “El Niño” and “La Niña”, require certain changes in both the ocean and the atmosphere because ENSO is a coupled climate phenomenon. “Neutral” is in the middle of the continuum.
El Niño: A warming of the ocean surface, or above-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, cloudiness and rainfall tend to become reduced with a corresponding increase in the average surface pressure. In the central and eastern part of the tropical Pacific Ocean cloudiness and rainfall increases with a corresponding drop in the average surface pressure. The low-level surface winds, which normally blow from east to west along the equator (“easterly winds”), instead weaken or, in some cases, start blowing the other direction (from west to east or “westerly winds”). La Niña: A cooling of the ocean surface, or below-average sea surface temperatures (SST), in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Over Indonesia, cloudiness and rainfall tend to increase with a corresponding drop in average surface pressure. Meanwhile cloudiness and rainfall decreases over the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean with a corresponding rise in average surface pressure. The normal easterly winds along the equator become even stronger. Neutral: Neither El Niño or La Niña. Often tropical Pacific SSTs are generally close to average. However, there are some instances when the ocean can look like it is in an El Niño or La Niña state, but the atmosphere is not playing along (or vice versa).
ENSO Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

So what is the criteria for an “El Niño” or “La Niña” to be declared officially?
El Niño criteria:
Average sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region (see image below) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean were at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) warmer than average (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) in the preceding month, and the anomaly has persisted or is expected to persist for 5 consecutive, overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., DJF, JFM, FMA, etc), and the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific exhibits one or more of the changes commonly associated with El Niño:
El Niño Flow Chart
La Niña criteria:
Average sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region (see image below) of the equatorial Pacific Ocean (5°N-5°S, 120°W-170°W) were at least 0.5°C (0.9°F) cooler than average in the preceding month, and an average anomaly of at least -0.5°C has persisted or is expected to persist for 5 consecutive, overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., DJF, JFM, FMA, etc), and the atmosphere over the tropical Pacific exhibits changes commonly associated with La Niña, including one or more of the following:
La Niña Flow Chart
ENSO Regions:
Location of the parts of the tropical Pacific used for monitoring sea surface temperature. As noted in the above criteria the Niño 3.4 region (red box in graphic below) is the area monitored to determine the ENSO phase.
ENSO Regions
Other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation can also play a role in determining winter weather.

ENSO Effect on U.S. Winter Weather Patterns:
The ENSO pattern in the tropical Pacific can be in one of three states: El Niño, Neutral, or La Niña. El Niño (the warm phase) and La Niña (the cool phase) lead to significant differences from the average ocean temperatures, winds, surface pressure, and rainfall across parts of the tropical Pacific. Neutral indicates that conditions are near their long-term average.

During an El Niño Winter the southern tier of Alaska and the U.S. Pacific Northwest tend to be warmer than average, whereas the U.S. southern tier of states—from California to the Carolinas—tends to be cooler and wetter than average. Meanwhile La Niña typically brings above-average precipitation and colder-than-average temperatures along the northern tier of the U.S., along with below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures across the South. An analysis of the 300 millibar (≅30,000 feet) wind speeds, the appoximate location of the jetstream, during the different ENSO phases depicts rather well how the location of the jetstream shifts with the stronger winds (red areas in image below) further south during El Niño and further north during La Niña.
300 mb Wind Speeds during different ENSO phases
However, there are other climate patterns, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation (AO), that can also play a role in determining winter weather. For example, the AO influences the number of arctic air masses that intrude into the U.S., but its predictability is limited to a couple of weeks. More local information about how the AO effects the weather across the Florida peninsula can be found at Arctic Oscillation: Impacts on West Central and Southwest Florida

ENSO History:

We had Moderate La Niña ENSO conditions the last two winters with temperatures averaging slightly below to slightly above normal, while rainfall was below normal (more details about these seasons can be found at 2025_26 and 2024_25.) Before this, a strong El Niño occurred during the winter of 2023-24.

Following is a graph of the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), using the 1991–2020 base period [3 month running mean of ERSST.v6 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5°N–5°S, 120°–170°W) with average tropical mean (20°N–20°S) SST anomalies subtracted. The difference is then adjusted so the variance equals the original Niño 3.4 index]. More details about the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) can be found here.

The winters labeled on the graph had a strong or very strong El Niño or La Niña event.

Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) in the Niño 3.4 Region

The following table lists the ENSO category for every winter since 1950.



The image below depicts the Percent of Normal Precipitation and Departure from Normal Temperature for each strong/very strong El Niño case since 1950 across the southeast U.S.

ENSO Local Temperature:

With the average storm track farther south during El Niño, temperatures tend to average slightly below normal thanks to increased cloud cover and rain, which keep daytime high temperatures cooler. This is in contrast to La Niña where we usually see less stormy weather, drier air, and more fair weather days. This drier air leads to warmer daytime and slightly cooler nighttime temperatures, resulting in overall slightly above-average temperatures across the area for the winter.

What plays a larger role in controlling temperatures across Florida during the winter and early spring is the Arctic Oscillation (AO) as we saw back in early 2010. This oscillation shifts on a monthly and sometimes weekly basis, and typically is not included in long term forecasts. For more details about the AO and its effect on West Central and Southwest Florida visit Arctic Oscillation: Impacts on West Central and Southwest Florida.

Below are graphs comparing the temperatures during the different ENSO phases at some of the official reporting sites across the area.

Graph Legend

Another way to see this is by viewing the Box and Whisker Distribution Plots* for the three climate zones across the Florida peninsula shown below:


Northern Florida Peninsula	Central Florida Peninsula	Southern Florida Peninsula
*To better understand these plots visit the following CPC web page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/info.php

ENSO Local Rainfall:

During El Niño the Florida peninsula typically experiences stormier conditions in the winter and early spring. Cold fronts move across the region nearly every week, and a stronger, more southerly jet stream leads to more widespread and above-average rainfall.

Conversely, La Niña typically brings below-normal rainfall to the Florida peninsula. With the jet stream positioned further north, the storm track shifts toward the Midwest and Northeast.

As shown in the graphics below, rainfall totals during our typical dry season average much higher during El Niño winters than during La Niña winters.

Graph Legend

Another way to see this is by viewing the Box and Whisker Distribution Plots* for the three climate zones across the Florida peninsula shown below:


Northern Florida Peninsula	Central Florida Peninsula	Southern Florida Peninsula
*To better understand these plots visit the following CPC web page: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ENSO/box_whiskers/info.php

ENSO Local Severe Weather:

During the El Niño phase of the ENSO, especially a Very Strong El Niño, the Florida peninsula typically experiences more stormy conditions during the winter and early spring. Cold fronts will move across the region and with the jet stream further south and stronger we tend to see a higher number of severe weather events. When we look at the data since the winter of 1969-70, we see that Very Strong El Niño events produce more than double the number of severe weather events (tornadoes, severe wind, and severe hail) across our county warning area compared to all other ENSO categories. On a side note, there is data available back in the 1950's and 1960's, but the number of reports is very low and unrepresentative.

Graph Legend

NWS Tampa Bay
County Warning Area WFO Tampa Bay County Warning Area

WFO Tampa Bay Average Number of Severe Weather Events per Cool Season by ENSO Category

Tornadoes:

Severe Wind:

Winds of 58 mph (50 knots) or stronger.
Damaging winds, often called “straight-line” winds to differentiate the damage they cause from tornado damage. Strong thunderstorm winds can come from a number of different processes. Most thunderstorm winds that cause damage at the ground are a result of outflow generated by a thunderstorm downdraft. Damaging winds are classified as those exceeding 50-60 mph.

Severe Hail:

Hail stones can grow as large as grapefruit in supercell thunderstorms, but it only takes a hail stone being one inch in diameter, or roughly the size of a U.S. quarter, to be considered severe. However, before January 5, 2010, the definition of severe hail was 3/4 inch in diameter, or roughly the size of a penny.

ENSO Local Freezes:

Freezing temperatures are possible into Central and South Florida during any winter no matter what the ENSO phase is that year. During El Niño conditions the likely cause of freezing temperatures is advection of cold air dragged southward behind low pressure systems that pass across the state. This is unlike La Niña conditions where the main cause is radiational cooling under clear skies and calm winds.

Long term averages indicate three to six days of freezing temperatures each winter across inland portions of Central Florida with only about one freeze over Southwest Florida. Farther north across the Nature Coast many more days of freezing temperatures occur with some locations such as Inverness and Bushnell having on average around 12 days, while farther north near Chiefland there are as many as 20 days with temperatures falling to or below 32° each winter. Overall, the difference in the number of days with freezing temperatures each winter is not that much between the ENSO phases as seen in the graphics below, but more dependent on the phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO). For more details visit Arctic Oscillation: Impacts on West Central and Southwest Florida.

Graph Legend

ENSO Local Sky Cover:

Sky cover, or the amount of clouds, varies from day to day, but there are some trends depending on the phase of ENSO. During El Niño conditions we tend to have more cloudy days and less sunny (clear) days thanks to the jetstream being stronger and further south bringing storm systems across our area. During a La Niña winter the jetstream is usually further north and therefore the storm systems tend to track well to our north with less clouds and more sunshine. A breakdown of the average number of days in the different categories, clear (0/10 to 3/10), partly cloudy (4/10 to 7/10), and cloudy (8/10 to 10/10), shows how there are more cloudy days during El Niño and more clear (sunny days) during La Niña.

The following tables list the number of days in each sky cover category since the winter of 1970-71 at Tampa.
Link to 1970-2000 Table		Link to 2001-2025 Table