Heat Wave Expands to the East Coast; Flash Flooding Likely in the Central Plains into the Midwest; Severe Thunderstorms in the Northeast

Dangerous, prolonged heat is ongoing in the Mid-South to Mid-Mississippi Valley and heat expands into the Northeast for a brief period today. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding due to heavy rains are forecast from northeast Kansas to much of Indiana. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of New England, northern Mid-Atlantic, and North Dakota. Read More >

First CG Lightning Convective Environment Browser

This study focused on the NWS Tampa Bay County Warning Area. NOAA RAP model analysis data was used to partition events into nine NWS Tampa Bay flow regimes (below left) based on 1200 UTC mean vector wind in the red box on the below right image. These regimes were the same ones used to create the Florida Summer Thunderstorm Climatology web pages. First Cloud-to-Ground (CG) and non-CG (null) events were identified for May-September (2012-2021) using USPLN lightning data between 1200 and 2359Z. Composite soundings display the mean and 25th/75th percentile vertical temperature and dewpoint profiles and composite mean convective parameters for first CG events in each regime one hour before a first CG event and at 1800 UTC for non-CG (null) events. Environmental parameter distributions use box-and-whisker plot approach for first CG events at -1 h and non-CG events at 1200 and 1800 UTC
Flow Regimes	Regime Analysis Box
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