Overview
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All images on this page can be expanded with a single left click and returned to original size with a second left click. During the week of December 12, 2022, a powerful winter storm system moved eastward across the United States. Blizzard conditions developed in the Northern Plains, and a severe weather outbreak occurred across Texas, Oklahoma, and into the southeast United States. On December 15th, this storm system arrived in the vicinity of the Florida peninsula. Ushered along by the sharp change in temperature, a cold front moved into the region. Ahead of this front, a line of storms developed over the Gulf - bringing with it two EF1 tornadoes, an EF0 tornado, and some damaging wind gusts. |
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Infrared Satellite
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Radar Loop 12/15/2022
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Tornadoes
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Tornado - near Masaryktown
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Tornado - Pasadena → Kenneth City
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Tornado - North Port
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The Enhanced Fujita (EF) Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories:
| EF0 Weak 65-85 mph |
EF1 Moderate 86-110 mph |
EF2 Significant 111-135 mph |
EF3 Severe 136-165 mph |
EF4 Extreme 166-200 mph |
EF5 Catastrophic 200+ mph |
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Photos
Pasco County → Hernando County EF-1 Tornado:
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| Photo Credit: NWS Tampa Bay | Photo Credit: NWS Tampa Bay | Photo Credit: NWS Tampa Bay |
Pinellas County EF-1 Tornado:
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| Photo Credit: NWS Tampa Bay | Photo Credit: NWS Tampa Bay |
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| Photo Credit: NWS Tampa Bay | Photo Credit: NWS Tampa Bay |
Sarasota County EF-0 Tornado:
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| Photo Credit: City of North Port Emergency Management |
Radar
Pasco County → Hernando County - December 15, 2022:
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KTBW WSR-88D Radar 0.5° elevation: Reflectivity, Velocity, Differential Reflectivity, & Correlation Coefficient |
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Pinellas County - December 15, 2022:
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KTBW WSR-88D Radar 0.5° elevation: Reflectivity, Velocity, Differential Reflectivity, & Correlation Coefficient |
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Sarasota County - December 15, 2022:
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KTBW WSR-88D Radar 0.5° elevation: Reflectivity, Velocity, Differential Reflectivity, & Correlation Coefficient |
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Rainfall:
The entire region saw some rain as the squall line moved through, with many areas from around Tampa Bay north into the Nature Coast receiving over 2 inches. Further south amounts were lower, but still between 0.50 and 1.00 inch.
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Environment
By 12Z (7 AM EST) on the 15th, the responsible upper-level low was negatively tilted over the High Plains. At 250 mb (≈34,000 ft), a region of fast-moving winds rounded the base of this trough axis. While the core of the fastest winds remained to the north, winds of 40 to 70 knots were observed across West Central and Southwest Florida. A setup like this is often favorable for severe weather with upper-level divergence.
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| Fig 1: 250 mb Analysis from 7 AM EST December 15, 2022 |
However, the system was also showing signs of weakening. At 500 mb (≈18,000 ft), a similar pattern was observed, suggesting that the upper-level low was becoming vertically stacked. Vertically stacked features like these often stall, gradually reducing the risk for severe weather. However, elevated wind speeds remained evident aloft, along with subtle height falls, and cooler temperatures. These combined ingredients supported large-scale ascent in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
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| Fig 2: 500 mb Analysis from 7 AM EST December 15, 2022 |
Down closer to the surface at 850 mb (≈5000 ft), a low-level SSW flow was advecting in warmer and increasingly moist air ahead of the advancing front. This moisture and warmer air was piling up on the warm side of the boundary, and provided additional support for the development of storms. Winds also remained on the stronger side, around 35 knots.
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| Fig 3: 850 mb Analysis from 7 AM EST December 15, 2022 |
The 12Z (7 AM EST) weather balloon data summarized the state of the atmosphere well. A southerly surface flow was present with a pronounced veering wind profile (clockwise turning of winds with height), through the first 700 mb (the first 3 km or 10000 ft). With such a flow, warm air advection (a large-scale forcing mechanism for ascent) was present. There was also sufficient low-level moisture, noted by the dew point depression of only 1 degree at the surface. This trend continues off the surface, with a fairly close proximity of the temperature/dew point lines through the same first 3 km.
With the winds veering around 90 degrees through this layer, sufficient directional shear and low-level helicity can be inferred. The calculated Storm Relative Helicity in this sounding shows nearly 400 m2/s2 present, which is more than ample to support supercells and subsequently tornadoes. Not only was the low-level shear conducive, bulk shear values of 50+ knots supported longevity in convective updrafts.
There was but one limiting factor in all this: instability. The data shows only Surface-Based Convective Available Potential Energy (SBCAPE) of 116 J/kg. Environmental lapse rates were also weak, coming in well below the standard 6.8°C/km at just over 5°C/km. However, the forecasted surface-based CAPE with anticipated daytime heating indicated this would change. Several recent research publications show that even in an environment with low instability, the other favorable conditions can overcome these limitations without issue. This setup has been termed, a “high shear, low CAPE” environment, and is often the setup for severe weather across the southeast U.S. and Florida. So while the parent system may have been weakening, the stage was set for severe weather across the region ahead of the approaching cold front.
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| Fig 4: NWS Tampa Bay Upper Air Sounding from 7 AM EST December 15, 2022 |
Text Products
Tornado Watch issued at 807 AM EST
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 591 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 807 AM EST THU DEC 15 2022 FLC015-017-027-049-053-055-057-075-081-101-103-105-115-119-152100- /O.NEW.KTBW.TO.A.0591.221215T1307Z-221215T2100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH 591 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 14 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL FLORIDA HARDEE POLK SUMTER IN NORTHERN FLORIDA LEVY IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DESOTO HIGHLANDS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA CHARLOTTE IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA CITRUS HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH MANATEE PASCO PINELLAS SARASOTA THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ARCADIA, AVON PARK, BAYSHORE GARDENS, BEVERLY HILLS, BOWLING GREEN, BRADENTON, BRANDON, BRONSON, BROOKSVILLE, BUSHNELL, CEDAR KEY, CHIEFLAND, CITRUS SPRINGS, CLEARWATER, DADE CITY, ENGLEWOOD, FANNING SPRINGS, FLORAL CITY, HERNANDO, HOLIDAY, HOMOSASSA SPRINGS, HUDSON, INVERNESS, JASMINE ESTATES, LAKE PANASOFFKEE, LAKELAND, LAND O LAKES, LARGO, LECANTO, NEW PORT RICHEY, NORTH PORT, PALMETTO, PLACID LAKES, PORT CHARLOTTE, PUNTA GORDA, SARASOTA, SEBRING, SOUTH VENICE, SPRING HILL, ST. PETERSBURG, TAMPA, THE VILLAGES, VENICE, WAUCHULA, WILDWOOD, WILLISTON, WINTER HAVEN, ZEPHYRHILLS, AND ZOLFO SPRINGS.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued at 1008 AM EST
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Warning National Weather Service Tampa Bay Area Ruskin FL 1008 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 The National Weather Service in Ruskin has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Western Pasco County in west central Florida... Southwestern Hernando County in west central Florida... * Until 1045 AM EST. * At 1008 AM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from near Weeki Wachee Gardens to 6 miles west of Jasmine Estates, moving northeast at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Spring Hill, New Port Richey, Weeki Wachee, High Point, Jasmine Estates, Weeki Wachee Gardens, New Port Richey East, Shady Hills, Hudson and Moon Lake. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 PM EST for west central Florida. For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a building. && LAT...LON 2864 8242 2827 8254 2819 8286 2857 8272 TIME...MOT...LOC 1508Z 244DEG 29KT 2851 8269 2833 8278 HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75IN TORNADO...POSSIBLE WIND THREAT....RADAR INDICATED MAX WIND GUST...60MPH $$ TBW
Tornado Watch issued at 117 PM EST
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 591 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 117 PM EST THU DEC 15 2022 FLC017-053-075-101-103-119-151930- /O.CAN.KTBW.TO.A.0591.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 591 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS N FLORIDA THIS CANCELS 6 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL FLORIDA SUMTER IN NORTHERN FLORIDA LEVY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA CITRUS HERNANDO PASCO PINELLAS THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BEVERLY HILLS, BRONSON, BROOKSVILLE, BUSHNELL, CEDAR KEY, CHIEFLAND, CITRUS SPRINGS, CLEARWATER, DADE CITY, FANNING SPRINGS, FLORAL CITY, HERNANDO, HOLIDAY, HOMOSASSA SPRINGS, HUDSON, INVERNESS, JASMINE ESTATES, LAKE PANASOFFKEE, LAND O LAKES, LARGO, LECANTO, NEW PORT RICHEY, SPRING HILL, ST. PETERSBURG, THE VILLAGES, WILDWOOD, WILLISTON, AND ZEPHYRHILLS. && GMZ830-850-853-151930- /O.CAN.KTBW.TO.A.0591.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 591 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS THIS CANCELS THE FOLLOWING ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TAMPA BAY WATERS COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM && FLC015-027-049-055-057-081-105-115-152100- /O.CON.KTBW.TO.A.0591.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/ TORNADO WATCH 591 REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 8 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL FLORIDA HARDEE POLK IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DESOTO HIGHLANDS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA CHARLOTTE IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HILLSBOROUGH MANATEE SARASOTA THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ARCADIA, AVON PARK, BAYSHORE GARDENS, BOWLING GREEN, BRADENTON, BRANDON, ENGLEWOOD, LAKELAND, NORTH PORT, PALMETTO, PLACID LAKES, PORT CHARLOTTE, PUNTA GORDA, SARASOTA, SEBRING, SOUTH VENICE, TAMPA, VENICE, WAUCHULA, WINTER HAVEN, AND ZOLFO SPRINGS. $$
Tornado Watch issued at 217 PM EST
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 591 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 217 PM EST THU DEC 15 2022 FLC057-152030- /O.CAN.KTBW.TO.A.0591.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH 591 FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN FLORIDA THIS CANCELS 1 COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA HILLSBOROUGH THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BRANDON AND TAMPA. && FLC015-027-049-055-081-105-115-152100- /O.CON.KTBW.TO.A.0591.000000T0000Z-221215T2100Z/ TORNADO WATCH 591 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN FLORIDA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL FLORIDA HARDEE POLK IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DESOTO HIGHLANDS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA CHARLOTTE IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA MANATEE SARASOTA THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ARCADIA, AVON PARK, BAYSHORE GARDENS, BOWLING GREEN, BRADENTON, ENGLEWOOD, LAKELAND, NORTH PORT, PALMETTO, PLACID LAKES, PORT CHARLOTTE, PUNTA GORDA, SARASOTA, SEBRING, SOUTH VENICE, VENICE, WAUCHULA, WINTER HAVEN, AND ZOLFO SPRINGS. $$
Tornado Watch expiration at 403 PM EST
WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 591 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL 403 PM EST THU DEC 15 2022 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ALLOWED TORNADO WATCH 591 TO EXPIRE FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IN FLORIDA THIS ALLOWS TO EXPIRE 7 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL FLORIDA HARDEE POLK IN SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA DESOTO HIGHLANDS IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA CHARLOTTE IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA MANATEE SARASOTA THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ARCADIA, AVON PARK, BAYSHORE GARDENS, BOWLING GREEN, BRADENTON, ENGLEWOOD, LAKELAND, NORTH PORT, PALMETTO, PLACID LAKES, PORT CHARLOTTE, PUNTA GORDA, SARASOTA, SEBRING, SOUTH VENICE, VENICE, WAUCHULA, WINTER HAVEN, AND ZOLFO SPRINGS. $$
Storm Reports
Map:
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Text Listing:
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
854 PM EST THU DEC 15 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1045 AM TSTM WND DMG MASARYKTOWN 28.43N 82.46W
12/15/2022 HERNANDO FL BROADCAST MEDIA
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.
1100 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 WSW NEW PORT RICHEY 28.24N 82.73W
12/15/2022 M44 MPH PASCO FL MESONET
MESONET STATION 1616W FSWN PASCO NEW PORT
RICHEY.
1101 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 7 NW PALMETTO 27.60N 82.65W
12/15/2022 M41 MPH GMZ830 FL MESONET
MESONET STATION XSKY SKYWAY FISHING PIER.
1115 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 ENE MASARYKTOWN 28.45N 82.37W
12/15/2022 HERNANDO FL PUBLIC
REPORT OF A POLE BARN DESTROYED, ROOF DAMAGE
TO A HOUSE, AND A FEW LARGE OAK TREES
SNAPPED AT THE BASE VICINITY AYERS ROAD AND
CULBREATH RD.
1125 AM FUNNEL CLOUD 2 W LAND O LAKES 28.22N 82.49W
12/15/2022 PASCO FL TRAINED SPOTTER
LASTED ABOUT 5 MINUTES.
1135 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 4 NNW BELLEAIR 27.99N 82.83W
12/15/2022 M46 MPH PINELLAS FL MESONET
MESONET STATION FW1789 CLEARWATER BEACH.
1136 AM MARINE TSTM WIND 3 NNW BELLEAIR 27.98N 82.83W
12/15/2022 M49 MPH GMZ853 FL BUOY
BUOY STATION CWBF1 CLEARWATER BEACH PIER 60.
1153 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 NNE PAGE PARK-PINE MA 26.58N 81.87W
12/15/2022 M40 MPH LEE FL ASOS
ASOS STATION KFMY FORT MYERS.
1153 AM TSTM WND GST 2 SE SOLANA 26.92N 82.00W
12/15/2022 M40 MPH CHARLOTTE FL ASOS
ASOS STATION KPGD PUNTA GORDA.
1153 AM TSTM WND GST 2 NNE MASARYKTOWN 28.47N 82.45W
12/15/2022 M43 MPH HERNANDO FL ASOS
ASOS STATION KBKV BROOKSVILLE.
1203 PM TORNADO 2 SSE KENNETH CITY 27.79N 82.71W
12/15/2022 PINELLAS FL EMERGENCY MNGR
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF A POSSIBLE TORNADO NEAR
16TH AVE N AND 55TH ST N. AT LEAST TWO
BUILDINGS DAMAGED.
1203 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 N GULFPORT 27.78N 82.72W
12/15/2022 PINELLAS FL NWS EMPLOYEE
LARGE TREE DOWNED ONTO HOME CAUSED ROOF
DAMAGE AND PARTIAL ROOM COLLAPSE IN BACK OF
HOUSE. P
1228 PM HEAVY RAIN 3.6 ESE SPRING HILL 28.43N 82.51W
12/15/2022 M2.74 INCH PASCO FL PUBLIC
1-HOUR RAIN TOTAL.
1239 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 6 E SAINT PETERSBURG 27.77N 82.57W
12/15/2022 M56 MPH GMZ830 FL MESONET
MESONET STATION XTAM TAMPA BAY CUT J.
0138 PM MARINE TSTM WIND 1 S WHITFIELD 27.40N 82.57W
12/15/2022 M45 MPH MANATEE FL ASOS
ASOS STATION KSRQ SARASOTA BRADENT.
0315 PM TSTM WND DMG 2 NW NORTH PORT 27.07N 82.21W
12/15/2022 SARASOTA FL EMERGENCY MNGR
EM RELAYED PICTURES OF LARGE TREE DOWNED
NEAR LANAI OF HOME AND ADDITIONAL LANAI
DAMAGE SEPARATE FROM THE DOWNED TREE.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1213 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1024 AM TSTM WND DMG 1 NNE WEEKI WACHEE ACRE 28.50N 82.59W
12/15/2022 HERNANDO FL BROADCAST MEDIA
DELAYED REPORT: GAS STATION AWNING PARTIALLY
PEALED BACK. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1218 PM EST FRI DEC 16 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1155 AM TSTM WND DMG 2 W LUTZ 28.13N 82.50W
12/15/2022 HILLSBOROUGH FL BROADCAST MEDIA
DELAYED REPORT: SEVERAL HOMES IN LUTZ
COMMUNITY RECEIVED DAMAGE TO POOL CAGES AND
FENCES. SOME SHINGLES WERE PEELED OFF ROOFS.
RADAR DATA AND DAMAGE PATTERNS SUGGEST THIS
WAS CAUSED BY A STRONG WIND GUST RATHER THAN
A TORNADO. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
648 PM EST SAT DEC 17 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1145 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 NW CARROLLWOOD 28.10N 82.57W
12/15/2022 HILLSBOROUGH FL PUBLIC
DELAYED REPORT. METAL ROOF OF A BARN TORN
OFF. PIECES OF SIDING REMOVED FROM SEVERAL
HOMES. NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AND SNAPPED. LIMB
OF AN OAK TREE FELL ON AND DAMAGED A CAR.
16000 BLOCK OF COPELAND FARMS ROAD IN
ODESSA.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1106 AM EST MON DEC 19 2022
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0315 PM TORNADO 2 NW NORTH PORT 27.07N 82.21W
12/15/2022 SARASOTA FL EMERGENCY MNGR
CORRECTS PREVIOUS TORNADO REPORT TO ADD EF
RATING AND WIND SPEED. EM, MEDIA, AND PUBLIC
ALL RELAYED PICTURES AND VIDEO OF LANAI
DAMAGE AND ADDITIONAL PICTURE OF A LARGE
TREE DOWNED NEAR THE LANAI. RADAR INDICATES
BRIEF ROTATION AND VIDEOS SUPPORT A TORNADO
DESIGNATION. ESTIMATED EF-0 STRENGTH WITH
WINDS OF 85 MPH.
Public Information Statement National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 124 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022 ...PRECIPITATION REPORTS OF 2 INCHES OR MORE LAST 12 HOURS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Hernando County... 1.1 NW Lacoochee 2.95 in 0100 PM 12/15 HADS Spring Hill 2.80 in 0115 PM 12/15 CWOP 5 SSE Royal Highlands 2.25 in 0115 PM 12/15 AWS ...Hillsborough County... Odessa 2.53 in 0115 PM 12/15 CWOP 1.4 NE Temple Terrace 2.26 in 0100 PM 12/15 HADS 1.9 N Thonotosassa 2.09 in 0100 PM 12/15 HADS ...Pasco County... Land O Lakes 3.00 in 0118 PM 12/15 CWOP 1 SE Spring Hill 2.77 in 0115 PM 12/15 AWS Holiday 2.58 in 0117 PM 12/15 CWOP 3.9 SE New Port Richey 2.53 in 1230 PM 12/15 HADS Land O Lakes 2.52 in 0115 PM 12/15 CWOP Land O Lakes 2.52 in 0115 PM 12/15 CWOP San Antonio 2.02 in 0115 PM 12/15 CWOP ...Pinellas County... 2.5 W Oldsmar 4.38 in 0100 PM 12/15 HADS Clearwater 2.74 in 0115 PM 12/15 CWOP Seminole 2.31 in 0115 PM 12/15 CWOP Tarpon Springs 2.22 in 0103 PM 12/15 CWOP Safety Harbor 2.09 in 0120 PM 12/15 CWOP Tampa 2.09 in 0116 PM 12/15 CWOP 2.0 E Dunedin 2.03 in 1215 PM 12/15 HADS 2.5 W Oldsmar 2.00 in 1245 PM 12/15 HADS Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.
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