| So When Does It Usually Cool Off Across West Central and Southwest Florida in the Autumn? |
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Astronomically speaking autumn began at 3:21 PM EDT Wednesday September 22, but across West Central and Southwest Florida the temperatures will remain anything but fall-like. We will continue to have rather high humidity with dew points in the middle 60's to middle 70's, along with high temperatures in the mid 80's to lower 90's. During most years we do not see the first shot of cooler drier air until the middle of October, albeit usually is rather short lived lasting only a day or two, with the real cool down not occurring until November. A good way to examine the timing of the first cool down is by looking at overnight low temperatures. The overnight low temperatures are highly dependent on a few factors, not the least being the amount of moisture in the air near the ground measured by looking at the dew point, the amount of cloud cover, and winds. In general overnight low temperatures cannot fall below the dew point, therefore if the dew points are still in the middle 60's to middle 70's then the overnight low temperatures will also be in the mid 60's to mid 70's unless a cool front moves through during the night. So to see when the first cool front moves across the region we’ll take a look at the long-term (since consistent records began) average dates when low temperatures fall below different thresholds at some locations. Examining the tables and maps below we do see that the long-term average date of the first real cool down appears to be during mid-October. This is when temperatures generally fall into the mid 50's across inland portions of the Nature Coast and below 60 degrees elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida. The only exception is near the coast where the water keeps temperatures higher and these areas take longer to fall below 60 degrees, as seen at St. Petersburg. |
| Click on a "Site" name below for detailed graphs at each location. |
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Another way to look at when it may cool down is to take a look at the graphs of the average (based on 1991-2020 Normals) and record low temperatures during the autumn at sites across the region. We can see from the graphs below that during some years the first cool down has occurred as early as mid-September when temperatures have fallen into the upper 40's across northern portions of the Nature Coast to the lower 60's south. However, looking at the average lows we see that for the most part it takes until November before low temperatures fall into the mid 50's north to lower 60's south on a consistent basis. Also on these graphs we can see that on a few rare occasions there has been a freeze across portions of the Nature Coast during the second half of October, with areas further south during November. |
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As a side note, for those who miss or would like to see where the foliage has begun to change color across the United States, visit the USDA Forest Service web site listed below. https://www.fs.usda.gov/visit/fall-colors And for an idea of the approximate time of peak fall foliage see the image below:  For more local climate information, visit our web site at https://www.weather.gov/tampabay and go to the Climate and Past Weather drop down menu above the weather forecast graphics. |
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