| Autumn Began on September 22nd, So When Does It Usually Cool Off 🍂 across West Central and Southwest Florida? 🍂 |
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| Updated September 14, 2026 | ||
Astronomically speaking, autumn began at 8:05 p.m. EDT on Tuesday September 22nd. Across West Central and Southwest Florida, however, the temperatures will be anything but fall-like. High humidity, with dew points in the mid 60s to mid 70s, along with high temperatures in the mid 80s to lower 90s typically persists well into October. The first shot of cooler drier air is usually rather short lived - lasting only a day or two. The real cool down does not usually occur until November. A good way to examine the timing of the first cool down is by looking at overnight low temperatures. Low temperatures are highly dependent on a few factors, not the least being the amount of moisture in the air near the ground, along with the amount of cloud cover and winds. The amount of moisture is determined by looking at the dew point. In general, overnight low temperatures cannot fall below the dew point. Therefore, if dew points are still in the middle 60s to middle 70s, then the overnight low temperatures are also likely to be in the mid 60s to mid 70s unless a cool front moves through during the night. To illustrate when the first cool front typically moves across the region, the long-term mean dates of specific low temperature thresholds (since consistent records began) are detailed below. Based on the tables and maps below, the long-term mean date for the first arrival of cooler, drier air is mid-October. This is when temperatures generally fall into the mid 50s across inland portions of the Nature Coast and below 60 degrees elsewhere across West Central and Southwest Florida. The only exception are coastal areas, where the warm water keeps temperatures higher and therefore these areas take longer to fall below 60 degrees. |
| Click a "Site" name in the tables below to view a detailed graph for that location. |
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Another way to examine when temperatures may cool down is to look at the graphs of the average (based on 1991–2020 Normals) and record low temperatures during autumn at sites across the region. As shown in the graphs below, the first cool-down has occurred as early as mid-September in some years, with temperatures dropping into the upper 40s across northern portions of the Nature Coast and the lower 60s further south. However, the normal lows indicate that it typically takes until November for low temperatures to consistently fall into the mid-50s north to lower 60s south on a consistent basis. Additionally, these graphs show that on rare occasions, a freeze has occurred across portions of the Nature Coast during the second half of October, and in areas further south during November. For an interpretation of the graphs, please click the small graph to the right. |
Interpretation of Graphs  |
As a side note, for those who miss or would like to see where the foliage has begun to change color across the United States, visit the USDA Forest Service web site listed below. https://www.fs.usda.gov/visit/fall-colors And for an idea of the approximate time of peak fall foliage see the image below:  For more local climate information, visit our web site at https://www.weather.gov/tampabay and go to the Climate and Past Weather drop down menu above the weather forecast graphics. |
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