Latest PA Weather Summary:
000 AWUS81 KCTP 060849 RWSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-062300-
Regional Weather Summary National Weather Service State College PA 449 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
Areas of fog blanket portions of Pennsylvania to start the day today. The fog may be locally dense before it dissipates by mid to late morning. A few peeks of sunshine are expected through mostly cloudy skies this afternoon, especially in the north. Showers and a few thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into this evening south of Interstate 80. Today will be much warmer than the past couple days, with most areas warming into the lower to mid 70s.
Scattered showers and storms will remain possible across the southern tier of Pennsylvania tonight, and then spread from west to east across the Commonwealth late Tuesday into Tuesday night as a warm front crosses the area. Lows tonight will range from the upper 40s across the north to near 60 degrees near the Maryland border. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the 70s to near 80.
Another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely Wednesday night into Thursday as an area of low pressure moves out of the Ohio Valley. A cooling trend will set in for late in the week and should last through Mother`s Day weekend, along with lingering showers behind the late week storm system.
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Latest Forecaster's Discussion:
000 FXUS61 KCTP 061111 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 711 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024
.SYNOPSIS... A slow moving cold front will bring scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms across south central PA this afternoon. The front will come back north as a warm front late Tuesday through Tuesday night, bringing more widespread showers and storms. The most widespread rainfall will occur Wed night into Thursday, followed by scattered showers lingering for Friday and the weekend.
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.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Widespread fog has developed across central PA overnight, with a handful of obs reporting quarter mile vsby. A dense fog advisory remains in effect through 10 AM for the lower Susq Valley north through Schuylkill County, where PennDOT RWIS obs have recorded vsby under 1000 ft on portions of Interstate 81. Daytime heating will mix out the low level moisture and lead to dissipation of the fog by mid morning in most areas.
A weak cold front pushing eastward through the area has a few showers along it early this morning. As it moves south of Interstate 80 this afternoon, it will tap into enough moisture and instability to support more numerous showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as the front approaches the Maryland border. The highest chance for a few lightning strikes will be across the Laurel highlands, where MLCAPE is progged to reach 750-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, enough dry air will nudge into northern PA for a few peeks of sunshine.
Temperatures will rise into the mid 70s for much of central PA this afternoon, which will feel noticeably warmer than this past weekend.
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.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Most model guidance shows the convective activity along the southern tier waning tonight with the loss of daytime heating, but isolated to scattered light rain showers will likely persist. Some fog is possible tonight as well, though confidence in fog is not as high as it was last night. Low temps will range form the mid 40s along the NY border to around 60F in the southern tier, with the north to south gradient in moisture playing a large role in overnight cooling.
Upper level ridging over PA indicates warmer conditions are likely Tuesday with highs reaching the upper 70s to near 80F. A warm front lifting out of the Ohio Valley and a 500mb short wave trough will result in increasing clouds with a PM shower/tsra, primarily across the western counties. Showers and a few storms will overspread the area Tuesday night.
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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Unsettled weather will continue into the extended period. Wednesday looks to be another warm day, with ensemble mean 850mb temps of 16C suggesting max temps well into the 80s across the Lower Susq Valley.
The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms continues to be focused on Wed night into Thursday, with a deepening upstream trough and sfc low pressure riding up the Ohio Valley and across the area. The SPC highlights our area in a MRGL risk for severe weather during this time frame, on the periphery of a SLGHT-ENH risk area over the Ohio Valley.
The surface low and deepest moisture is progged to shift east of the area Thursday night. However, falling heights ahead of the upper trough will likely support scattered diurnal convection Friday through Sunday, along with a downward trend in temperatures.
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.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A moist southeast flow off of the Atlantic Ocean will maintain stratus over Central PA tonight with widespread IFR/LIFR cigs and ridgetop fog. Improving flying conditions look likely Monday as high pressure builds into the region from the Grt Lks, causing winds to shift from southeast to north. Latest forecast soundings and ensemble prob charts support a transition to MVFR during early afternoon and potentially VFR by late in the day. Low pressure lifting up the Ohio Valley could spread showers and reduced cigs into the southern tier of PA Monday evening.
Outlook...
Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible southern tier of PA. Isold evening tsra impacts possible W Mtns.
Wed...AM low cigs/tsra possible.
Thu...Rain/low cigs likely.
Fri...Showers/low cigs possible, mainly AM.
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.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for PAZ057>059- 065-066.
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SYNOPSIS...Colbert NEAR TERM...Colbert SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Colbert LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Evanego/Colbert AVIATION...Fitzgerald/RXR
Latest Public Information Statement:
000 NOUS41 KCTP 251342 PNSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-260139-
Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 939 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024
To: Subscribers: -NOAA Weather Wire Service - Emergency Managers Weather Information Network -NOAAPort Other NWS Partners and NWS Employees From: Greg Schoor, Chief Marine, Tropical and Tsunami Services Branch
Subject: Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) Mosaic Testing on April 25, 2024 Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) in the
National Weather Service (NWS) Southern and Eastern Regions will commence with Hurricane Threats and Impacts (HTI) threat grid mosaic testing on Thursday, April 25. Testing will begin at approximately 1500 UTC. Test activities will take approximately 1 hour; however, NWS dissemination systems may take up to an hour and a half to purge all test data. All test data is expected to be cleared by 1730 UTC.
For the test, HTI grids will be created for hurricane Wind Threat, Storm Surge Threat, Flooding Rain Threat, and Tornado Threat at each participating WFO. Those grids are stitched together into storm- scale HTI graphics. The HTI Mosaic graphics are available in Keyhole Markup Language (KML) format on the following webpage: https://www.weather.gov/hti
The mosaics are also available through the National Digital Forecast Database and on web pages hosted by the Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) affected by the tropical cyclone. These webpages use the following URL format, where “wfo” should be replaced with the 3 digit identifier for the WFO of interest:
NWS Eastern Region WFOs: https://www.weather.gov/wfo/tropical#hti
NWS Southern Region WFOs: https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=wfo#hti
More details on HTI can be found in the Product Description Document: https://www.weather.gov/media/srh/tropical/PDD_HTI.pdf
Periodic software and hardware testing in preparation for tropical cyclone events will continue during the remainder of 2024.
For more information, please contact: Jonathan Guseman Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service Office State College, PA jonathan.guseman@noaa.gov
National Public Information Statements are online at: https://www.weather.gov/notification/
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