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000
AWUS81 KCTP 202057
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-211100-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
357 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

High pressure across the southeast states will keep mainly dry
conditions across Pennsylvania. A few clouds will drift across
the sky tonight before a slowly thickening cloud cover moves into
the commonwealth during Sunday.

Lows tonight will be milder than in recent nights, with lows
ranging from the lower 30s across the north and east, to the mid
to upper 30s across the south and west. Highs Sunday will be held
in the 40s over the east as cooler air slides in from New England.
The rest of the state will see temperatures warm into the 50s.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


000
FXUS61 KCTP 210318
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1018 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Moisture will creep into the western mountains tonight.
Temperatures will rise above normal today and stay there through
mid-week. A cold front will move through the area later Monday
night and early Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Quiet and mild mid January evening in progress. Clear skies will
give way to increasing clouds after midnight, with readings
dropping to near or just below freezing across the north before
that happens and then rising. It appears that increasing cloud
cover will allow temperatures to rise above freezing again
before any light drizzle or a few wet snowflakes develop over
the northwest mountains by 09z, so concern for freezing
precipitation remains low. Eastern areas have already decoupled,
as evidenced by KIPT and KSEG which are sitting at 30F and 28F
respectively at this hour. Clouds will increase there in the pre
dawn hours with temperatures steady or slowly rising after 2 or
3 am.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
The risk of ice jam flooding will continue over the weekend and
into early next week. See the hydro section for more details.

Clouds do creep in from the SW tonight, but it seems like the
models are very aggressive in dropping the wrn counties into the
crud. The closest low clouds are clouds around 3kft over far srn
WV and ern KY. Nighttime stratification should assist the
upslope in making the forecast low clouds appear. Will, however,
be less aggressive with the influx of clouds. Will continue to
mention the possibility of FZDZ in the grids. but the temps may
be just above freezing as the clouds and drizzle materialize. As
the clouds arrive I would expect the temps to go up a bit, too.
So, no advy at this point. Will allow later shifts to futher
assess the situation.

By sunrise, about half of the area should be overcast and clouds
will creep eastward, but mixing will keep the bases higher to
the east of the Alleghenies. No need for POPs until the
afternoon when continued influx of moisture and upslope into the
eastern ridges makes it possible for a drip or two to fall
there. Maxes will likely be challenged by the clouds. Will keep
them a little lower than guid.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Another January thaw will bring a period of relatively mild
weather to Central PA through early next week. Temperatures are
not expected to be as warm as the previous thaw (late last
week), but departures should reach +10 to +15 degrees above
average for mid to late January, peaking Monday in the NW and
Mon into Tues in the SE. The progressive pattern will keep the
cool down during the middle/late part of next week rather brief
before temperatures moderate/trend warmer into next weekend.

The start of warm advection Sunday night and Monday ahead of a
strengthening Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes cyclone will
impinge on a retreating thermal gradient between I-80 and I-90.
Forecast soundings indicate moisture will be rather shallow
initially with areas of light rain confined mainly to the
western and northern parts of the area. Elsewhere expect low
clouds to develop with pockets of drizzle/mist and fog.

As the cyclone approaches, Monday will see the light showers
retreat to the north with the warm front (thermal boundary).
The most likely period for widespread rain is Monday night into
early Tuesday along/ahead of south-southwesterly LLJ axis and
cold/occluded front. A weak secondary low may form in the lee
of the Appalachians and support a period of enhanced rainfall
over the eastern 1/2 of PA Tuesday morning. At this time, the
total rainfall forecast for early next week does not appear to
be as heavy as Jan. 11-12.

Winds look rather blustery from later Tuesday into Wednesday on
the backside of the low pressure system as colder air filters
back in. Snow showers are likely downwind of Lake Erie into Wed
night. Dry wx with moderating temperatures Thu-Fri under high
pressure. Some showers may sneak into the NW Sat as weaker low
pressure system lifts across the Great Lakes, with better
chances for rain with another low on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MVFR stratocu/stratus deck should form or move into the
western zones tonight. This deck will become IFR at BFD and JST,
and there will likely be some --RA and/or DZ at both sites.
Clouds could lower to IFR UNV and AOO, but those latter two
airfields will have a bit of a downslope and this should help to
keep it dry and just MVFR at UNV/AOO/IPT.

The gusty wind will diminish with loss of heating and as the low
to our north slides to the NE.

As the moisture pools and builds over the area, the threat of DZ
could spread into the Poconos. SCT SHRA also possible over the
nrn mtns on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sun PM...SCT SHRA - mainly in the north. Otherwise MVFR S and
IFR N.

Mon...Reduced flight categories with rain showers associated
with an approaching cold front - mainly N. Improvement expected
from S-N thru the day.

Tue...VFR w/SCT MVFR in SHRA.

Tues PM-Wed...IFR SHSN NW. MVFR/VFR SE.

Thurs...No sig wx.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Main concern is watching water levels rise on Susq downstream on
Harrisburg. Marietta gage /MRTP1/ continues its slow rise as ice
builds up downstream. Gage above action stage and there is some
minor flood concerns in Wrightsville ongoing. The Flood Watch
for this area has been extended through the weekend, set to
expire Monday afternoon. With milder temperatures there is
potential for ice movement, as well as slow ice
deterioration/thinning with time. All areas near rivers and
streams that have significant ice buildup should monitor water
levels closely for the next several days.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for PAZ065-066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...Lambert/Ceru
HYDROLOGY...