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Latest PA Weather Story:


052
AWUS81 KCTP 271000
RWSCTP

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
600 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

A southerly flow will bring warm weather to all of Pennsylvania
today with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Morning
clouds across eastern Pennsylvania will give way to brightening
skies, while an approaching cold front brings increasing clouds
and the chance of thunderstorms across the western part of the
state this afternoon.

The cold front will push through Pennsylvania tonight,
accompanied by a dying line of showers and thunderstorms. Low
temperatures will range from around 50 in the west, to around 60
in the east.

High pressure will build into the commonwealth Friday, bringing
fair and warm weather. Skies should range from partly to mostly
sunny and highs should range from the upper 60s near the Lake Erie
shore, to the low 80s across the Lower Delaware Valley.

$$


Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


156
FXUS61 KCTP 271130
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
730 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will
dominate our weather through Monday. A front will weaken as it
moves into the ridge late today, triggering thunderstorms. Then
ridge will build westward over the weekend. We will be on the
warm, moist western side of the ridge most of the weekend. A
classic dirty warm up with warm moist air and potential diurnal
thunderstorms. Alas, a strong trough should bring cooler drier
weather to the region for the second part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
GOES-16 3.9-11.2um loop at 09Z showing stratus becoming more
extensive over eastern Pa, as boundary layer cools. It looks
like most of the region east of the Allegheny divide will begin
the day either cloudy or foggy. Model soundings/SREF prob charts
suggest patchy low clouds could linger until midday over the
eastern half of the state. Eventual clearing and very warm air
at 850mb should result in temps rising to near 80F this
afternoon.

Main forecast issue remains the potential of a few strong to
severe tstorms this evening associated with arrival of a
weakening cold front. All guidance timing convection into the
western counties between 21Z-00Z. Model soundings showing fairly
impressive shear, both 0-6km and 0-1km. However, only modest
low level moisture return ahead of front and thus marginal CAPE
values expected. SPC has placed roughly the western half of Pa
in a marginal risk this evening. Given the strong winds aloft
and borderline CAPE, expect isolated damaging wind gusts to be
the greatest threat, rather than large hail. Not sure how much
weight to place on 00Z NAEFS, which is indicating a high
probability of STP>1 across the north-central counties as front
comes through around 00Z, suggesting a brief tornado can`t be
ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Diminishing frontal showers/storms should push through eastern
Pa after dark, as CAPE diminishes and bulk of large scale
forcing with parent shortwave lifts north of the region.

A dry and slightly cooler Friday is expected, as surface ridging
builds in behind cold front. 850 hPa temps remain above normal
across the Lower Susq Valley, where readings could again push
80F. Model RH profiles support a mostly sunny forecast for most
of the area Friday. Some increasing mid level cloudiness appears
likely across the northwest counties during the afternoon, as
WAA aloft spreads in ahead next shortwave working across the
Grt Lks.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak shortwave passing across southern Ontario/Quebec is
progged to push a shallow cold front through Pa Saturday. Timing
of this front will favor diurnally-driven convection across the
southern counties, where pre-frontal heating could potentially
push temps into the mid 80s based on model 850mb temps near 15C.
A cold air damming scenario expected Sunday, as dying frontal
boundary slips south of the border and sfc high over New England
directs a cool southeast flow into central/eastern Pa. Have
nudged max temps several degrees below National blend guidance
Sunday. Much warmer/unstable airmass west of the mountains could
lead to PM tstorms across western Pa, potentially affecting our
western counties.

Max POPS during the extended period remain centered on
Monday/May 1st associated with passage of a potent cold front.
A severe weather threat may evolve downstream from the OH
Valley into the Mid Atlantic late Monday before temperatures
decline to near normal behind the cold front for next Tuesday
and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

GOES-16 shows the low clouds than spread westward across PA
overnight. This feature is associated with a strong gradient in
the potential temperature field. This marine front is stuck sort
of north-south along the mountains. Mainly MVFR/IFR to east of
it and VFR to the west. This low cloud boundary should erode
west to east this AM restoring VFR to KUNV and KIPT before KMDT
and KLNS.

Winds a few thousand feet up are over 20kts. When we mix in the
15 to 18 UTC timeframe winds will get a bit gusty.

The frontal system to our west is in Ohio and KY. It is forecast
in most models to bring showers and thunderstorms to western
areas in the 20 to 22 UTC timeframe and later as one moves east.
Initially, there could be some strong storms with this front.
But they should weaken as they move into eastern areas mainly
after 0000 to 0200 UTC.

Any rain and low-level moisture will triggers some low clouds
and patchy fog. Most likely to the east, closer to the front and
higher moisture values. Some pretty moist air still stuck in SE
PA in the 0600 UTC timeframe Friday AM. Much drier to the west.
Mainly VFR behind the front in west MVFR/IFR in east especially
southeast.

Friday looks like shortly after sunrise the dry air should make
for a great flying day. VFR should dominate.

The chance of showers and rain increases Friday night into
Saturday.

Outlook...

Fri...No significant weather.

Sat-Sun...A few showers possible. Mainly dry with VFR
conditions for much of the time.

Mon...Breezy with showers and thunderstorms likely with FROPA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Grumm
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Grumm/Steinbugl