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Latest PA Weather Story:


000
AWUS81 KCTP 100230
RWSCTP

REGIONAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
930 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

LINGERING SNOW AFFECTING EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA WILL GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY...USHERING IN
COLDER AIR AND KICKSTARTING LAKE EFFECT AND TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THE UPPER TEENS IN THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS TO AROUND 30 DEGREES IN PHILADELPHIA.

LAKE EFFECT AND TERRAIN ENHANCED SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
PRIMARILY WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE COMMONWEALTH WILL BE LEFT WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW LINGERING
FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 20 DEGREES IN THE
LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE MID 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.

$$

EVANEGO


Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


000
FXUS61 KCTP 100614
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
114 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
U.S. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A CONSTANT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING IN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON AS WELL AS CREATE A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SNOW BELT AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
1 AM UPDATE...
SNOW STILL FALLING LIGHTLY OVER ADAMS CO AND SURROUNDING THERE BY
A FEW MILES. WINDS NOW FROM THE WEST AND FORCING CONTINUES TO
WANE. WILL ONLY LINGER SNOW FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HRS THERE AND THE FAR
ERN ZONES. OTHERWISE...THE UPSLOPE HAS BEGUN. THERE IS A SHORT
BREAK FOR THE NW AND EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE COUDS THERE. THESE
WON/T LAST VERY LONG OVER THE NW BUT SHOULD SLIDE TO THE EAST AND
PERHAPS WIDEN THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE CENTRAL COS.


PREV...
SNOW HAS CONTINUED TO SHRINK IN COVERAGE SO THE BULK OF THE
HEADLINES FROM THE LAURELS EASTWARD HAVE BEEN DROPPED. HEADLINES
HAVE BEEN CONTINUED FOR THE LAURELS WHERE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
UPSLOPE SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.

THE MAIN CHANGE FOR THE NEAR TERM WAS TO UPGRADE THE WATCH FOR
WARREN COUNTY TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING...AND TO ERECT A LAKE
EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE NEIGHBORING MCKEAN WITH INDICATIONS
POINTING TO A LONG PERIOD OF FAVORABLE OVER-LAKE FLOW. A LAKE
MICHIGAN CONNECTION IS MADE TO DEVELOP UNDER HIGHLY-FAVORABLE
TEMPERATURE/LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR
THE USUAL SNOW BELT AREAS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS AND
HEAVIER SNOW SQUALLS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM THE AIR WILL DRY OUT AS IT TYPICALLY DOES IN
THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LITTLE MORE
THAN FLURRIES.

LOW TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
ON WED...THE LAKE EFFECT IN THE NW SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY
FAVORING NWRN WARREN COUNTRY AS THE WSW FLOW FAVORS MOST OF THE
BANDED SNOWS SLIDING INTO NY STATE.

TEMPS WILL DROP OFF QUITE QUICKLY LATE WED AS REGION RECEIVES A
GLANCING BLOW OF -20C 850MB AIR. MINS MAY GET INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ON THE HILL TOPS OF THE ALLEGHENIES AND LAURELS AS WIND
CHILLS GO BELOW ZERO IN A STIFF BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*IMPACT WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS: SNOW SQUALLS POSSIBLE WITH ARCTIC
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT-EARLY SATURDAY; FRIGID TEMPERATURES/DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS FOR VALENTINES WEEKEND.

POLAR VORTEX DIVES FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY-SUNDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEP A `MILDER` TROUGH PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE
NORTHEAST CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.

THE FIRST SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES ON THURSDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT
AND UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF THURSDAY NIGHT. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE FAVORED NORTHWEST
SNOWBELT AND HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE ALLEGHENIES/LAUREL
HIGHLANDS.

THE COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE 2015-16 WINTER SEASON REMAINS POISED
TO ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND...AS A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR DELIVERS A SHORT
DURATION COLD OUTBREAK TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. SNOW SQUALLS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES OF -20 TO -25 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
ARE FCST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RANGE FROM AROUND 0F IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
VALLEY TO -10F IN THE NORTHWEST ALLEGHENIES. THE FRIGID TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS /-10 TO -25 BELOW ZERO/ WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK FOR FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

A SLOW MODERATION (WARMING TREND) IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT WITH A POTENTIAL OVERRUNNING/WAA TYPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

06Z TAFS SENT.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF I 80. THE DRIER FLOW IS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST...WHICH WILL SIGNAL AN END TO MOST OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS...OUTSIDE OF THE LAKE AND TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTED REGIONS. SNOW
WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES AS THE EVENING
CONTINUES...CIGS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT AS
WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES A BIT OVERNIGHT CIGS WILL IMPROVE AS WELL
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. LOWER SUSQ WILL IMPROVE TO VFR WITH
CENTRAL MTNS HOLDING ON TO AN MVFR DECK. WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME SNOWFLAKES IN THE AIR WITH UPSLOPE FLOW
KEEPING MAINLY IFR CIGS IN PLACE. EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE TOWARD
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...

WED...MAINLY IFR IN SNOW WRN AIRSPACE. MVFR-VFR CIGS
CENTRAL/EAST.
THU-SAT...MVFR IN -SHSN W MTNS. VFR ELSEWHERE.
SUN...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ005.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ004.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...STEINBUGL
AVIATION...CERU/MARTIN/RXR