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Tropical Storm Watch in Effect for North Carolina Coast

The National Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the North Carolina coast. NHC is also monitoring Tropical Depression 9, which is entering the Gulf of Mexico. Read More >

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Latest PA Weather Story:


000
AWUS81 KCTP 290137
RWSCTP

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
937 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

A cold front will drop southeastward across Pennsylvania overnight.
A few showers and thunderstorms remain possible, but this activity
should tend to diminish as the night progresses. Low temperatures
will range from the low 60s in the northwest mountains to the upper
60s across southwestern and southeastern Pennsylvania.

The front will stall along or just south of the Mason-Dixon line on
Monday, resulting in some lingering clouds and a slight chance for a
shower or thunderstorm across far southern Pennsylvania. Farther to
the north, skies should become mostly sunny. High temperatures will
range from the upper 70s along the Lake Erie shoreline to the low 90s
in the Philadelphia area.

Tuesday will be mostly sunny and warm, before a stronger cold front
approaches the commonwealth on Wednesday accompanied by another
chance for showers and storms.

$$

Evanego

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


683
FXUS61 KCTP 290330
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1130 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will sag slowly south tonight and Monday
morning. High pressure will bring another period of warmer than
normal and mainly dry weather for Monday into Wednesday. A
cold front will move across the commonwealth Wednesday followed
by a refreshingly cooler airmass with low humidity Thursday
through Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
02Z radar loop shows diminishing convection over western Pa along
axis of deep moisture/instability ahead of approaching shortwave.
Expect overall coverage/intensity of convection to continue to
wane overnight, as blyr cools/stabilizes. Latest guidance
indicates dwindling convection will accompany a weak cold front,
as it pushes south into the state late tonight. It still appears
the se counties will remain dry overnight, as the cold front is only
progged to make it to about I-80 by dawn.

Lows generally in the 60s will average some 10-15 deg above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
The weak cold front will stall along or just south of the Mason/Dixon
Line Monday afternoon providing the low level convergence to help
focus what will be isolated to scattered convection during the
afternoon over southern PA. Low PWAT air mass working in behind
the front should result in abundant sunshine over much of the
region Monday. Even across the south, expect decreasing cu by late
aftn, as the front clears the area and drier air arrives.

High temps Monday will vary from near 80 across the NW Mountains
to around 90 in the southern valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended period looks like it will feature a transition from
a persistent upper-level ridge over the eastern United States to
a weak upper-level trough by mid to late week. As a result,
above-normal temperatures through the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe
will transition to near or a little below normal by the end of the
period.

A weakening cold front will push slowly SE through the
Commonwealth tonight and early Monday Sunday night into Monday
morning accompanied by isolated to scattered
showers/thunderstorms. The frontal boundary is expected to wash
out near or just south of the Mason/Dixon line during the day
Monday. Abundant low-level moisture, mesoscale convergence and
some orographic lift/heating via the east to NE low level flow
regime across the mountains of SW PA will focus the best chance
for showers and scattered thunderstorms there Monday afternoon.

Monday night through Wed morning looks to be dry with generally
light wind and just the possibility of patchy early morning valley
fog.

Medium range guidance agrees with a second-stronger cold front
pushing SE across the area Wednesday afternoon or early Thursday,
with a renewed chance for showers and thunderstorms.

This front will be followed by a cool-down for the end of next
week. Max temps should be mainly in the 70s Thursday into the
weekend over the northern and western higher terrain, with low
to mid 80s elsewhere as an upper trough amplifies from central
Quebec...to the Mid Atlantic Piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Still some showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
area.

03Z TAFS sent.

Earlier discussion below.

Several hours of showers and storms, before things taper
off. MDT and LNS not likely to see anything.

Main issue late will be fog and low clouds, especially in
areas that saw rain, such as UNV.

Did bring in lower conditions to IPT. They had no showers
so far, but as skies clear late, low level moisture could
result in the typical BKN004 CIGS there.

Conditions should improve by 14Z, as slightly less humid
air works in from the north.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy AM fog, then VFR.

Wed...Sct PM TS impacts possible.

Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/La Corte
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Martin