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Latest PA Weather Story:


888
AWUS81 KCTP 011347
RWSCTP

REGIONAL WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
945 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AS WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
RIDE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LARGE
CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE COMMONWEALTH...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM AROUND 50 DEGREES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO
THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT...AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LINGERS NEARBY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S
TO LOW 50S STATEWIDE.

MONDAY WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUE...AS THE FRONT
ATTEMPTS TO SLIP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS
TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PIEDMONT.

$$

EVANEGO


Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


000
FXUS61 KCTP 011910
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
MODERATING TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...FOLLOWED BY SOME COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS
LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION OCCUR IN THE CLEARING AND INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
ALONG A BOUNDARY LAID DOWN BY RECENT RAINS. SIGNIFICANT WIND SHIFT
OVER NW PA...PERHAPS SOMETHING OF A LAKE BREEZE COMBINED WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM. NO LTG AS OF 245 PM...BUT A FEW PIXELS OF >50DBZ
SHOWING UP IN THE TALLER CELLS NEAR KDUJ.

STABILITY IS LOWEST IN THE WEST AND 500+ CAPES SHOWING UP THERE AS
WELL. ORGANIZATION IS SO HAPHAZARD THAT IT ONLY CHC-LOW LIKELY
POPS ARE ON ORDER IN THE WEST. SOME OF THE MESO MDLS WEAKEN THE
CONVECTION AND SLIDE IT SOUTH THIS EVENING...SO HAVE FOLLOWED
SUIT. BUT THAT NORTHERN WIND SHIFT/BOUNDARY MAY FLARE UP BEFORE
TOO LONG AND ALSO MAKE SHOWERS/TSRA THERE.

OVERALL...THE LOWEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
AFTER THE EVENING CONVECTION WEAKENS AND/OR DIES OFF
COMPLETELY...THE CONVECTION OVER OH/SRN IN MAY GEL INTO AN MCS
AND ROLL ACROSS OUR NORTHERN HALF/TWO- THIRDS. A SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE TROUGH/ VORT MAX IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POSSIBLE MCS...SO
THE LIKELIHOOD OF IT PRODUCING DECENT/CONSISTENT RAIN IS HIGH EVEN
IF THE TS DIES OFF BEFORE/AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE CWA. SOME 0.5
INCH AMOUNTS WILL PROBABLY HAPPEN UP THERE. LIGHTER RAIN WILL
PROBABLY FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER...BUT IT COULD BE NIL AS
WELL...SO POPS ARE AOB 50 PCT ALONG THE MD BORDER. THE DAY TIME ON
MONDAY WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE IF ANY CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP AS
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH AND SOME MEAGER HEATING
HAPPENS. HOWEVER...THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR SEEMS TO HAPPEN
JUST AS WE ARE WARMING UP. WHAT ARE CURRENTLY WARM MAX TEMPS COULD
BUST AS WELL...IF THE CLOUD COVER IS MORE PERSISTENT THAN
EXPECTED. WINDS COULD GET GUSTY /20S/ OVER THE LAURELS AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY. OVERALL...THE AFTERNOON LOOKS MORE- DRY THAN THE
MORNING. THE ONLY CHC TS IS ACROSS THE NE IN THE EARLY MORNING AND
WAY FAR IN THE SOUTH. BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOW IN THE AFTN IN THE
SOUTH TO MAKE ANY MENTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RAIN WILL COME TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY MONDAY AS MAIN WAVE LIFTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND. 48-HOUR FORECAST RAINFALL TOTALS ENDING 00Z
TUESDAY ARE AROUND 1.00 NORTH TO 1.25 INCHES SOUTH...WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER THE WESTERN ALLEGHENIES AND SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES
WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT.
THE FCST RAINFALL SHOULD HELP THE AREA RECOVER FROM /60-90+ DAY/
DEFICITS GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF -2.00 TO -4.00 INCHES. THE
LATEST DROUGHT MONITOR NOW HAS OVER HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA IN
ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ CONDITIONS WITH A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE
DROUGHT /D1/ CONDITIONS FOCUSED OVER BEDFORD COUNTY.

A PERIOD OF IMPROVING/DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...BEFORE ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURES
RIDES NE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING CFRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BRING MORE
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO THE SE HALF OF THE STATE. INTO THE MID OR LATE
MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.

THE PATTERN TURNS QUITE UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE AND SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL CHUNKS OF ENERGY DIG SE AND CARVE OUT A
DEEP...SLOW MOVING COLD TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND LLVL TEMPS GET COLD ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT A MIX OR CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS OF PENN
LATE WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BASED ON A BLEND OF THE 00Z EC/00Z
GFS AND GEFS. DID FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON THE WED NIGHT-FRI PERIOD
WITH THE UPPER CLOSED LOW AND SURFACE LOW STACKING...WHICH WILL
ALSO BE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIEST RAIN THIS PERIOD. OTHERWISE IT
LOOKS LIKE A CLOUDY AND WET WEEK WITH PERIODS OF GENERALLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION AND RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES VS. SEASONAL
CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHRA COVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MTNS VCTY IPT-UNV-FIG. SOME THUNDER
WILL BE POSSIBLE SHORTLY IN JST. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED THE MENTION
THERE FOR NOW. HOWEVER...DEEPER CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP NEAR BFD
AND DROP S LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING AND THEN A CLUSTER OF TS WILL
LIKELY PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN PA IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT.
CIGS WILL BE LOW FOR MUCH

A GENERAL/POORLY ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY OVER WRN
PA WILL WILL FINALLY SLIDE TO THE SE AND ALLOW DRIER/COOLER AIR TO
COME DOWN FROM THE NW ON MONDAY AFTN. CIGS/VIS WILL BE POOR FOR
MUCH OF THE TIME TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE...RA LOWERED CIGS/VIS...MAINLY SE.

WED-THU...SCT SHRA.

FRI...NO SIG WX.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
AVIATION...DANGELO