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Latest PA Weather Summary:

257
AWUS81 KCTP 142128
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-151130-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
528 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Skies will vary between mostly clear and mostly cloudy tonight as
a cold front approaches the area. Expect dry conditions for most
of the commonwealth, with the exception being a slight chance of
light rain showers near the Lake Erie shoreline before sunrise.
Low temperatures will range from around 40 degrees in the
Northwest Alleghenies to the mid 50s in Philadelphia.

A push of much drier air behind the cold front will bring
widespread sunshine to the Commonwealth by Wednesday afternoon.
Northerly winds will gust 20 to 30 mph, highest in eastern
Pennsylvania. Frost and freeze conditions are expected starting
Wednesday night, but will be more widespread Thursday night as
temperatures reach their lowest point for the week.

Temperatures will trend warmer for the end of the week and into
the weekend, with high temperatures Saturday and Sunday reaching
into the 60s and 70s. The next chance of rain is on Sunday ahead
of a cold front.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

542
FXUS61 KCTP 150230
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1030 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry conditions through Thursday, with temperatures tipping
slightly below climatological averages.
* Above average temperatures begin Friday and continue into the
weekend, with increasing rain chances this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Some fog is forming in the valleys in the N due to the light
wind and clear sky. Have added fog into many of the usual
valleys in the CWA. But, it shouldn`t get widespread since there
should be an increase in clouds and decrease in dewpoints. There
could also be perhaps a bit more wind as the cold front moves
through. Otherwise, those clouds in the far E are going away,
just a little slower than earlier expectations.

Prev...
Skies have cleared save for some patches of low clouds in the
far NW and the very back edge of clouds from earlier today in
the far E. The cold front is extremely dry, and tough to find.
The drier air as judged by mid-40 dewpoints are in Canada, but
even a couple of spots in the CWA are dipping into the 40s, now.
No moisture pooling and barely clouds over wrn NY and LE lend
high confidence to a dry forecast as the front passes through
tonight.

Prev...
Clearing skies are expected overnight, with radiational cooling
across the western half of the forecast area with high
confidence, allowing for low temperatures into Wednesday
morning dipping into the upper 30s to lower 40s. Slightly more
uncertainty with regards to the cold frontal passage timing
across southeastern Pennsylvania, thus cooling might not be as
efficient with low temperatures into the lower 50s. These low
temperatures will generally be above-average for the middle of
October across all of central Pennsylvania.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Relatively cool temperatures are progged through the middle
part of the week behind the cold front, with dry air allowing
for no precipitation mentions through Thursday. Cool overnight
periods will bring about frost/freeze concerns, mainly Thursday
night into Friday, across the Lower Susquehanna Valley where
seven zones remain in the growing season (see latest PNSCTP for
update on growing season). Confidence on frost/freeze concerns
across the Lower Susquehanna Valley warrants continued mentions
in the HWO and will need to be monitored over the next few
forecast cycles for headline decisions.

Daytime dryness will peak on Thursday with room for downside to
minRH in the 25-35% range. 20-25 mph wind gusts particularly
over the eastern portion of the area could create some concern
for fire weather partners depending on how quickly dead fine
fuels can cure post the cool/wet/dank Columbus Day and weekend
rainfall.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Little change in the long-term forecast cycle for the Tuesday
afternoon update. Departing high pressure will allow for mostly
dry conditions through Saturday; however, a slight increase in
moisture has been progged by some model guidance Saturday
morning, allowing for slight chances of precipitation to be
introduced in this timeframe. Better chances for precipitation
comes on Sunday and into the beginning of next week.

Previous Discussion, Issued 3:51 AM EDT 10/14/2025:
Mild trend ramps through the weekend with max temps 65-75F
behind an increasing southerly return flow on the backside of
departing sfc high pressure. Latest model data continues to
favor dry/rain-free wx through Saturday.

Strong upper trough and well defined frontal system should tap
Gulf moisture moving east of the Mississippi River. This system
will most likely bring rain/showers to CPA Sunday through Sunday
night/early Monday. Timing could easily shift +/- 12hr with GFS
and EC showing their typical fast/slow bias at this range, but
overall the models are in pretty good agreement showing the
frontal rainfall on Sunday transitioning to a cooler, breezy
post-frontal NW flow to begin next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions have returned to all central PA TAF sites except
for LNS, still hanging onto MVFR stratus at 00z Wed. The back
edge of this cloud deck is expected to move through LNS by
01-02z.

After a brief period of mainly clear skies this evening, high
clouds increase in coverage once again overnight ahead of an
approaching shortwave and sfc cold front. Most sites will
remain VFR, but model soundings suggest a period of restrictions
with lower cigs at BFD and JST in upslope flow coming off Lake
Erie. The 23z LAMP guidance gives JST a ~60 pct chc of IFR conds
and ~45 pct chc of LIFR conds around sunrise. LIFR conds are
much less likely at BFD, but there is a 30-50 pct chc of IFR
conds.

Skies clear out during the day on Tuesday and VFR conditions
will return area-wide. Winds will be out of the northwest at 5
to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible in the afternoon at
MDT and LNS.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR, still breezy.

Fri-Sat... VFR

Sun...Restrictions possible in SHRA. Low probability of a
thunderstorm over northwest PA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NPB
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/NPB
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/NPB
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/NPB
AVIATION...Colbert/Bauco

Latest Public Information Statement:

833
NOUS41 KCTP 140620
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056-058-141030-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
220 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

...Growing Season Ended For Much of Central Pennsylvania...

Based on a combination of the number of days past the median
first freeze date and observed freezing to sub-freezing
temperatures on October 10th, the growing season has ended for
the following counties:

McKean
Potter
Tioga
Sullivan
Lycoming
Warren
Elk
Cameron
Clearfield
Cambria
Somerset
Clinton
Centre
Blair
Bedford
Huntingdon
Fulton
Mifflin
Union
Snyder
Northumberland
Montour
Columbia
Schuylkill
Juniata
Perry

Frost and freeze headlines will no longer be issued for the
counties listed above until the start of the next growing season
in April and May 2026.

$$
MRS