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Latest PA Weather Story:

AWUS81 KCTP 011451

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
1045 AM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

A cold front will push southeast from the Great Lakes today,
bringing an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms across
Pennsylvania. The best chance of thunderstorms will be this
afternoon across the eastern half of the state. High temperatures
today will range from the low 70s across the northwest mountains,
to the mid 80s across the southeast piedmont.

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms will end from west to east
this evening with the passage of the front. Low temperatures
overnight will range from the lower 50s over the northern mountains
to the lower 60s across southern Pennsylvania.

High pressure will build in for Saturday and Sunday...supplying fair
weather and near average temperatures. A warm front approaching from
the Ohio Valley could potentially threaten southern Pennsylvania
with rain for the 4th of July.


Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

FXUS61 KCTP 012035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
435 PM EDT FRI JUL 1 2016

A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across
Central Pa this evening. High pressure will then build over the
northeast conus over the weekend. A warm front will lift slowly
northeast from the Ohio Valley early next week. This front should
bring an increasing chance for showers Monday afternoon through
Tuesday especially across the southern part of Pennsylvania.


Cancelled the watch as the storms moved to the east. Cold front is
generating some showers and isolated thunder as it moves through
the NE. NAM doing well on the timing and placement at this point.
All of these showers are heading into the 50-something dewpoint
air and away from the thin ribbon of higher moisture. This should
cause them to diminish in coverage and size/intensity.

Severe Watch Box #314 in effect for several Lower to Middle Susq
Valley Counties...valid until 10 PM (but will be cleared several
hours earlier than that as the remainder of this box extends far
to the south and east of our area).

A potent mid lvl shortwave will sweep across the region late this
afternoon. Diurnal heating of an increasingly humid air mass
across eastern PA invof a strengthening llvl lee trough across the
area east of the Susquehanna River aided in the development of
sct-numerous showers and sctd strong to locally svr tsra. Latest
1830z meso analysis shows sfc based lifted indices of -4 to -5 and
MU capes of 1500-2000 j/kg across the mid and lower Susq Valley.

Moderately strong deep layer shear will continue to support the
chc for some organized storm structure with the potential for
localized gusty wind and nickle to quarter sized hail across our
extreme SE zones through 2030Z. Storms should move from about
240-260 deg at 25-35 kts.

A second chance of shra/tsra will accompany passage of the actual
sfc cold front across the nw mtns this aftn and the rest of
central Pa and the Susq Valley this evening/early tonight.
However, below avg PWATs will likely result in only isold to sct
coverage. Highest /likely/ Pops will be reserved for the eastern
counties early this aftn as mentioned above.


The risk of lingering showers/tsra will end from northwest to
southeast this evening with passage of cold front and arrival of
low pwat air mass. Mostly clear skies and slightly blw avg temps
will follow for late tonight and Saturday, as sfc high builds over
the state. Low temps tonight will vary from the u40s in the cool
spots of the the lower 60s in the SE metro areas. Highs
Saturday will vary from about 70s across the highest terrain of
the north and around 80F in the Susq Valley.


Abnormally dry airmass accompanying dome of high pressure will
support high confidence in fair/dry weather Sat night and Sunday
with seasonal temperatures and comfortable humidity.

Forecast issues continue to center around potential rain risk
early next week associated with frontal wave of low pressure
evolving eastward along quasi-stationary boundary draped
near/along the Ohio River and I-64/70 corridors. The deterministic
models agree that a convective complex should be entering the
lower OH Valley by early Monday. From this point (around 04/12z)
on the EC and CMC favor a slightly stronger/northern wave versus
the GEFS, which keeps the bulk of QPF south of the PA/MD border.
The model timing of pcpn also remains an issue given the small
scale nature of the feature at longer ranges.

Until the models can converge on a common solution, will maintain
continuity and make very minor changes to the forecast for early
next week. NDFD grids utilized a multi-model ensemble blend of
NBM/EC/WPC. The most likely outcome still calls for dry wx in most
of central PA through July 4th, although southern Pa stands the
best chance for rain Monday.

In the longer range, NAEFS and ECENS both showing rising heights
across the ne conus during next week, as center of subtropical
ridge migrates from the sw states to the se states. ECENS mean 8h
temps rise to arnd 20c by late week, suggesting we will see max
temps nr 90F at that time.


A cold front over the Great Lakes will push southeast across
central Pa this evening.

At 1830z, conditions primarily VFR will continue across
practically all of the central ridge and valley region of PA
through dusk...with just a few spots in the lower Susq Valley
invof KLNS ocnly dipping to MVFR in the ceiling category.

A second chance of shra/tsra will accompany passage of the cold
front across the nw mtns through late this aftn...and the rest of
central Pa this evening. However, below avg PWATs will likely
result in only isold to sct coverage, and kept mention to
isolated to scattered SHRA/VCTS for now.


Sat and Sun...No sig wx expected.

Mon...Chance of showers/reduced cigs, mainly south and in the
afternoon and at night.

Tue...Slight chance shower/tstm with minimal impacts.

Wed...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers and localized MVFR south.




NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir/Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner