Latest PA Weather Summary:
000 AWUS81 KCTP 182234 RWSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-191245-
Regional Weather Summary National Weather Service State College PA 634 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
Areas west of I99 and north of I80 will have multiple rounds of snow flurries/showers through Thursday. The southeast will have variable cloudiness, but will generally stay dry through the same period. Colder then normal temperatures through Wednesday morning will be more uncomfortable with gusty west to northwest winds.
Snow accumulation will be confined to the higher elevations of the northern and western mountains. Just a few inches of snow will build up over the next few days in the lake effect snow belt with just an occasional dusting to an inch in the Laurel Highlands and northern Alleghenies.
Lows tonight will be below freezing everywhere across the Commonwealth, running between the lower 20s in the northwest to the lower 30s in the piedmont region. Highs on Tuesday will be slightly milder running from the mid 30s across the northern tier counties to the mid 40s across the southern tier counties. Expect milder temperatures on Wednesday before turning colder again Thursday
$$
Latest Forecaster's Discussion:
000 FXUS61 KCTP 190312 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1112 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS... An amplifying upper level trough will drift across Pennsylvania tonight, followed by a reinforcing shortwave and associated cold front Wednesday. High pressure is likely to build over the area Thursday. A weak northern stream shortwave is likely to affect the area late Friday, as a more significant southern stream shortwave and associated surface low passes south of the state.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/... Water vapor loop at 03Z shows a deep upper level trough pushing over Central PA. Large scale subsidence behind the exiting trough should result in breaking clouds east of the mountains tonight, while lake-enhanced orographic snow showers persist across the Allegheny Plateau. Near term model guidance indicates the plume of best lake moisture will shift from the NW Mtns this evening to the Laurel Highlands late tonight. Progged inversion heights are fairly low and the airmass remains dry outside of lake bands, so overnight accumulations will be light. Latest ensemble mean qpf supports overnight accums ranging from a dusting over most of the Alleghenies, to around an inch over the Laurel Highlands.
A well mixed boundary layer and only weak cold advection suggest temperatures will fall slowly tonight, with daybreak readings ranging from the mid 20s over the higher terrain of the Alleghenies, to the low 30s in the Lower Susq Valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Latest guidance continues to track a clipper across the Northern Grt Lks Tuesday. Backing flow ahead of this feature should result in a break in the lake effect activity early Tuesday. However, warm advection along the attendant low level jet is likely to support some light snow across primarily the N Mtns Tuesday. Latest ensemble mean qpf indicates accumulations of less than an inch are likely. Temperatures will edge up a bit Tuesday under warm advection regime, but plenty of cloud cover should still result in max temps several degrees below average, ranging from the 30s over the N Mtns, to the low and mid 40s in the southern valleys.
The best isentropic lift shifts north of the border Tuesday night. However, residual low level moisture ascending the Allegheny Plateau should result in a few lingering snow showers overnight in that part of the state, with clearing skies expected downwind (east) of the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... The passage of the trailing cold front Wednesday should be accompanied by scattered rain/snow showers, a few of which could survive into the Susq Valley, due to strong forcing ahead of the upper level shortwave. Steep lower tropospheric lapse rates indicate the potential of some heavier snow squalls across the N Mtns. Deep cold advection and passage of a strong isallobaric couplet signal a period of gusty northwest winds behind the cold front late Tuesday. Latest Bufkit soundings support gusts in the 30-40mph range late Tuesday into Tue evening. Fair, but still cool, weather appears likely Thursday, as the trough lifts out and surface ridging builds in from the Grt Lks. Thursday night looks quite cold, as the surface high settles over the state.
Medium range guidance suggests a period of light precipitation is likely Friday PM associated with warm advection ahead of a weak northern stream shortwave. Thermal profiles point to mainly rain, but the N Mtns could be cold enough for a light snow accumulation. Most guidance keeps a more significant southern stream shortwave well south of the area. However, there remains a small chance of phasing of two branches of the jet, resulting a heavier rainfall across Eastern PA Friday night into Sat.
Fair and cool weather looks likely the second half of next weekend, as upper troughing exits the east coast and high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks. Rising heights noted in the model guidance early next week, but a cold air damming signature with strong high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes suggests the warmup will be tempered.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Mainly VFR will continue into Tuesday across much of the central and SE PA airspace under varying amounts of stratocu based AOA 3500 ft AGL.
There will be occasional to persistent MVFR across PA`s northern and western mtn airfields tonight and even some brief periods of MVFR Cigs at KUNV and KAOO in -SHSN this into this evening.
West-northwest winds will be moderately gusty this evening and tonight for all TAF sites.
A dual or multi-layered cloud shield (mainly VFR) will spread across the region Tuesday as the low level flow backs a bit more to the west-southwest, helping to confine most of the snow showers across the far NW zones, with generally mostly cloudy skies and breezy and dry conditions elsewhere.
Outlook...
Tuesday-Saturday...Periodic snow showers and reductions, primarily across the higher terrain of northern and western PA. This will be enhanced by reinforcing shots of unseasonably cold air and gusty W/NW winds. West to northwest wind gusts could peak in the 35 to 40 mph range on Wednesday.
&&
.CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins on Tuesday March 19 at 11:06 PM EDT.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner CLIMATE...Steinbugl
Latest Public Information Statement:
000 NOUS41 KCTP 181015 PNSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-190415-
Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 615 AM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024
The National Weather Service has declared March 18th through March 22nd to be Flood Awareness Week in Pennsylvania.
Today`s topic: Flood Preparedness.
Is flooding really that big of a deal?
Flooding causes more damage in the United States than any other weather related event, an average of 5.2 billion dollars per year over the past 20 years. Flooding can occur in any of the 50 states or US territories during any time of the year. Flooding is a coast-to-coast threat to some part of the United States and its territories nearly every day of the year. If you know what to do before, during, and after a flood you can increase your chances of survival and better protect your property. For instance, it is vital to know what to do if you are driving and reach a flooded road. Here you will find an interactive flood map, information describing the different types of flooding, and educational material. You will also learn how the National Weather Service keeps you aware of potentially dangerous flooding situations through alerts and warnings.
Learn how to better protect yourself and your family by reading our flood survivor stories. If you, or someone you know, have been a victim of a flood, please share your story so we can prevent others from becoming a victim. When you write, please note that NWS has permission to use your story and, if possible, let us know the town and state you were in and the year the event took place.
How can I find out if I am in danger from a flood?
Local news, television, and social media are all good ways to receive flood alerts and flooding information. NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards is one of the best ways to receive warnings from the National Weather Service. NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards is a nationwide network of radio stations broadcasting continuous weather and river information directly from local NWS offices. The AHPS web page identifies where river flooding is occurring with a transition to the NWPS website upcoming on March 27th. After this transition, you can find this information at water.noaa.gov. The AHPS webpage will become inactive on May 26, 2024.
Is there anything I can do to prepare for a flood?
Information on how you can reduce potential flood damage and what to include in a family disaster plan can be obtained from the American Red Cross. The NWS works with, and relies on, strategic partners involved in floodplain management, flood hazard mitigation, and flood preparedness to reduce the loss of life and property due to floods.
When flooding threatens, listen to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite media outlet for warnings and statements. These warnings and statements contain information about specific locations that will be impacted and the impacts that are expected due to the flooding.
Another way to be prepared before flooding occurs in your area is by obtaining flood insurance.
Why do I need flood insurance? Flood losses are not covered by your homeowners insurance policy. Local flooding can happen in all parts of the country at almost any time of the year. Flooding causes more damage in the United States than any other weather related event, averaging 5.2 billion dollars per year over the past 20 years.
How do I obtain a flood insurance policy? You can purchase national flood insurance from private insurance companies and agents. Currently, there are over 100 insurance companies that sell national flood insurance coverage through some sixty- thousand independent insurance agents.
If a seller of a property has flood insurance coverage on the building, that policy can be assigned to the buyer at the time of closing. If a mortgage company requires flood insurance as a condition of the loan, the lender may escrow flood insurance premiums, making it easy to ensure that you will not get caught without flood insurance when a flood threatens your home.
Who can purchase flood insurance? Anyone in a community that participates in the National Flood Insurance Program can purchase building and...or contents coverage, with a few exceptions. Coastal barrier resources system areas, otherwise protected areas, and buildings principally below ground or entirely over water are not eligible for national flood insurance.
You can find out if you can get flood insurance at the flood smart.gov website. Just fill out the flood risk profile for the location you are concerned about.
Topics for the rest of flood awareness week: Tuesday: Turn Around Don`t Drown. Wednesday: Flood Information. Thursday: Flooding Causes and Severity. Friday: Flood alerts.
$$
|