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Latest PA Weather Summary:

000
AWUS81 KCTP 280903
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-282315-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
503 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

High pressure will supply fair weather to Pennsylvania today.
However, an approaching storm will spread thickening clouds into
the western part of the state. Highs will range from the mid 50s
over the Pocono Mountains, to the mid 60s across the southwest
part of the state.

Expect thickening clouds tonight, with rain arriving over the
southwest counties, as low pressure approaches from the Ohio
Valley. Lows will range from around 40 degrees over the northeast
corner of the commonwealth, to around 50 in the southwest.

Rain will slowly overspread the rest of the state from the
southwest on Friday, reaching the northeast counties toward
evening. Highs will range from the upper 40s over the central
mountains, to near 60 in the southwest and southeast corners of
the state.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

000
FXUS61 KCTP 281129
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
729 AM EDT Thu Oct 28 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will move in slowly from the Mid Mississippi
Valley late this week, bringing wet weather Friday and
Saturday. Scattered showers could linger into Halloween,
especially over the Alleghenies. The outlook for the start of
November leans toward near to below average temperatures and
precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early morning satellite imagery shows fairly extensive valley
fog across the central mountains of Pa. Latest HREFV3 and LAMP
guidance indicate the fog may take until 14Z-15Z to burn off in
some locations.

Upper level ridging building over the state will ensure dry
weather today. However, a moistening southeast flow, combined
with orographic forcing, could produce developing stratus across
the Laurel Highlands and south central mountains by mid to late
afternoon.

High temps today may be slightly cooler than Wednesday, due to
the southeast flow off the Atlantic, but anywhere from 2-6F
warmer over portions of the Allegheny Plateau that remained
cloudy Wednesday. Partly to mostly sunny skies should result in
mixing to 900mb based on model soundings, which supports max
temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Guidance remains in agreement with timing and track of upper low
lifting out of the Mississippi Valley. The associated low level
jet and plume of anomalous pwats is progged to lift north across
the region Friday, overrunning a wedge of cool/stable air linked
to high pressure north of New England. Rain should overspread
the southwest counties late tonight and spread slowly northeast
through the day. The most significant rain appears likely to
fall Friday afternoon and evening with the passage of low level
jet. In general, model guidance supports a 1 to 1.5 inch
rainfall for most, with local amounts in excess of 2 inches
likely where the southeast flow is forced to ascend the
ridgetops of south-central Pa. Fortunately, southern Pa has been
relatively dry recently and even the wettest HREF members fall
short of 3-4 inch FFH guidance. Further north, the ground
remains quite wet north of KIPT, where some minor flooding is
more likely.

Gusty winds are expected to accompany passage of powerful low
level jet Friday, primarily over the Laurel Highlands and the
southeast part of the forecast area, where model soundings
indicate gusts of 35-40kts are possible. Have undercut NBM highs
Friday, due to its warm bias in cold air damming scenarios.

Lingering lighter rain associated with low level easterly flow
will continue through Saturday, especially over the Alleghenies, as
vertically stacked low slowly pushes into the state from Ohio.
Latest guidance indicates the southeast portion of the forecast
area could break into the warm sector ahead of approaching low,
resulting in a few bright spots in the overcast and temperatures
rising to around 60F. Elsewhere, low clouds and intermittent
light rain should cap temps near 50F along the spine of the
Alleghenies.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A trend toward drier and brighter conditions appears likely
Sunday into Monday, as the upper low lifts out and surface
ridge builds in from the Ohio Valley. As cloudiness decreases,
diurnal temperature swings will widen, resulting in moderating
highs and decreasing overnight lows.

By mid next week, models indicate another system and cold front
approaching the Commonwealth. There is some model disagreement
on the timing of arrival of the system; the GFS is quite fast in
bringing this system in during the midweek, whereas the Euro is
slower and brings the system in for the end of the week.
Regardless of when it arrives, models indicate that it will be
mostly a soaking rain event. However, there is some chance of
the northern mountains seeing their first snowflakes of the
season with this system, as temperatures will be on the decline
starting on Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SDhort term will focus on the lifting of the patchy fog. Expect
this to be gone by 14Z. VFR will prevail with higher clouds
increasing from the west threough the day.

-RA will develop late overnight but only reach KJST-KAOO by 12Z.Winds
will increase ovewrnight from the southeast with gusts to near
20KTS at times.

Outlook...

Fri...Widespread rain with lower CIGS and visibilities.

Sat...Widespread lower CIGS and light rain.

Sun...Slow improvement in conditions.

Mon...No Sig Wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record high temperature was set in Harrisburg on Monday.
The temperature reached 76 degrees, which broke the old
record of 75 degrees set in 1963.

A warm October so far.

October 2021 will be remembered for its persistent warmth
& lack of cold nights. As we approach the end of the month,
let`s contextualize the record-setting warmth:

RECORD WARMEST LOWEST OCTOBER TEMPERATURES
(The temperature never fell below this value in October)

CURRENT RECORD OCT 2021 SO FAR
Harrisburg: 43F (1984) 43F (10/24)
Williamsport: 38F (1971) 39F (10/19)
State College: 38F (2014) 39F (10/24)


RECORD HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE
(Average of all the highs and lows in the month of October)

CURRENT RECORD OCT 2021 (THRU 10/26)
Harrisburg: 64.4F (2007) 63.6F (RANKS 2ND MONTH-TO-DATE)
Williamsport: 59.4F (2007) 60.7F (RANKS 3ND MONTH-TO-DATE)
State College: 59.2F (2007) 60.7F (RANKS 2ND MONTH-TO-DATE)

RECORD HIGHEST AVERAGE LOW TEMPERATURE
(Average of all the low temperatures in the month of October)

CURRENT RECORD OCT 2021 TO DATE (DIFF FROM RECORD)
Harrisburg: 53.6F (1984) 55.3F (+1.7F)
Williamsport: 50.1F (2007) 52.3F (+2.2F)
State College: 49.8F (2007) 52.2F (+2.4F)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Banghoff/Gutierrez
AVIATION...RXR/Tyburski
CLIMATE...Martin

Latest Public Information Statement:

000
NOUS41 KCTP 271935
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-281945-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
335 PM EDT Wed Oct 27 2021


...NWS Damage Survey for October 21, 2021 Thunderstorm Wind Event
near Lake Altoona in Blair County PA...


.Lake Altoona Microburst...

Estimate Peak Wind: 80-90 mph
Maximum Path Width: 50 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: October 21, 2021
Start Time: 9:52 PM
Start Location: Near Lakeside Dr. in Altoona
Start Lat/Lon: 40.489825 / -78.452128

End Date: October 21, 2021
End Time: 9:54 PM
End Location: Near Lakeside Dr. in Altoona
End Lat/Lon: 40.490841 / -78.450632

The National Weather Service in State College, PA has confirmed that
a microburst occurred near Lake Altoona in Blair County, PA between
9:52PM and 9:54PM on October 21, 2021. Residents of Lakeside Drive
reported storm damage to the NWS after the event. Damage was confined
to a small area. Trees were snapped and uprooted. Based on the storm
survey, estimated peak winds were between 80 and 90 mph.


&&

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$