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Latest PA Weather Summary:


000
AWUS81 KCTP 031004
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-040015-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
604 AM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

An area of high pressure at the surface will drift into eastern
PA by this afternoon, as an upper level trough of low pressure
approaches from the Ohio Valley.

Aside from some areas of valley fog along the larger streams and
rivers in northern PA early this morning, mainly clear skies and
quite cool temperatures were found across the northern mountains
where readings were in the 40s, with a veil of hig clouds and
readings in the 50s across the southeast half of the state.

Predominantly fair and dry weather will continue through the rest
of this week with a slow uptick in humidity beginning on
Wednesday.

A stray afternoon shower or thunderstorm is possible over the
Laurel Highlands this afternoon and evening, and there may be a
rogue, afternoon pop-up shower or thunderstorm Wednesday
afternoon. However, the vast majority of places will see very
little or no rainfall over the next several days.

Wednesday will be a bit warmer with afternoon highs ranging from
the mid 70s north to the lower 80s across the southeast, which
will be a few degrees shy of normal in most locations.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


456
FXUS61 KCTP 031055
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
655 AM EDT Tue Aug 3 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A plume of deep tropical moisture will remain along and just
east of the Carolina and Mid Atlantic Coast through the rest of
this week, while an upper level trough slides slowly east across
the Commonwealth and weakens. Expect relatively tranquil
weather to continue across the region through at least Saturday,
though a few light and spotty showers can`t be ruled out. Look
for seasonable temperatures and mainly dry weather. Warmer and
more unsettled weather is expected by late in the weekend as a
weak frontal boundary moves southeast from the Great Lakes
region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1020 mb sfc high pressure over Central PA early today was
creating an early Autumn-like feel with temps in the mid 40s to
lower 50s across Northern and Central PA respectively, while
readings settled into the mid 50s in the SE.

Nighttime Microphysics RGB Sat imagery shows a plume of high
clouds streaming NE across the Scent Mtns and Lower Susq Valley,
while mainly clear skies an quite cool temps covered the NW half
of the state with some deeper/river valley fog that formed over
the past few hours as the air water temp exceeded 20 degrees F.

Look for high-based and low-end altocu to advect north from the
Virginias later this morning through this evening as the flow in
that layer back with the approach of a mid/upper level trough.
Some Meso-B lift in response to a compact area of diff positive
vorticity advection heading NE up the Ohio Valley this afternoon
and evening will help to vertically grow the clouds just enough
to create some isolated-scattered showers across primarily our
SW zones.

The greatest amount of sunshine will be found across the NW
mtns, after the river valley fog burns off by around 13Z.

Max temps today will be in the low-mid 70s across the higher
terrain of the north and west and near 80F in the southern
valleys.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Weakening upper trough lifting ENE acrs the region tonight (with
weak sfc high pressure building in) will maintain variable
amounts of high-based stratocu with light wind and comfortable
temps and humidity for mid Summer.

Afternoon temperatures Wed will warm by a few degrees compared
to today.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Look for a transition to warmer and more humid pattern with
some increase in daily rain chances is the overall trend in the
extended period.

An upper level trough and closed low over the Ohio River Valley
will transition out of the area by later in the week. This
feature is now being progged more progressively, shunting the
richest deep layer moisture off of the mid Atlantic Coast well
east of the Piedmont region. The shortwave responsible for
kicking the aforementioned upper trough eastward eventually
reaches the area by Saturday, creating the chances of afternoon
showers and storms into Saturday evening. For the weekend into
next week, a subtropical ridge will build over the Eastern half
of the US. Temperatures, humidity, and chances of showers and
storms will increase Sunday and into next week. Model 850 temps
beginning Monday afternoon will be quite warm at +20C, and
surface temps could be well above 90 for our SE Valleys. This
added with the increase in tropical humidity will make for a hot
and uncomfortable second week in August.

Diurnal showers and storms will be possible through the entire
long range period. PWATS will be higher this weekend into next
week, so downpours and locally heavy rain may be a concern.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Satellite imagery early Tue morning shows fog and low clouds in
some of the river valleys across central PA. This includes IPT,
where LIFR cigs are observed at 11z. Low clouds and fog should
quickly dissipate by 12-13z.

VFR conditions prevail again today, with increasing high clouds
throughout the day. Winds will be light and variable. A few
stray SHRA are possible in the SW / JST. With calm winds
tonight, patchy fog will again develop, particularly if
radiative cooling is enhanced in areas of clearing skies.

Outlook...

Wed-Sat...Mainly a chance of an afternoon SHRA or TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
July 2021 ranked as the 10th wettest at Williamsport (4.64"|
+2.35") 9th wettest at Harrisburg (8.00"|+3.26") and 3rd
wettest at Bradford (4.16"|+2.59").

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Wagner
AVIATION...Colbert/Gutierrez
CLIMATE...


Latest Public Information Statement:


000
NOUS41 KCTP 022030
PNSCTP
PAZ024-030000-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
347 PM EDT Mon Aug 2 2021


...NWS Damage Survey for 07/29/2021 Tornado near Nanty Glo...

The National Weather Service in collaboration with the Cambria County
Department of Emergency Services confirms an EF-0 tornado
occurred just north of Nanty Glo from approximately 6:10 PM EDT
through 6:11 PM EDT on Thursday, July 29, 2021.

.Nanty Glo Tornado...

Rating: EF-0
Estimated Peak Wind: 70 mph
Path Length /statute/: 350 feet
Path Width /maximum/: 15 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: July 29, 2021
Start Time: 6:10pm
Start Location: West side of Blacklick Valley High School football field
Start Lat/Lon: 40.480300/-78.838300

End Date: July 29, 2021
End Time: 6:11pm
End Location: East side of Blacklick Valley High School football field
End Lat/Lon: 40.480200/-78.837100

A tornado developed on the western side of the Blacklick Valley
High School football field and moved southeast across the field
before lifting on the eastern side of the football field. The
tornado displaced small bleachers and knocked over a portable
toilet. A few trees around the football field were snapped.

&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

Wagner