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Latest PA Weather Summary:

154
AWUS81 KCTP 152240
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-161245-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
640 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

With the exception of a few stray, slow moving downpours across
the higher terrain of central and western PA early this evening,
overall conditions will remain dry tonight. Patchy fog is
expected to develop overnight into Wednesday morning. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 60s in the north to the low
70s in the southwest and southeast.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast
for Wednesday and Thursday. Localized areas may pick up 2 to 3
inches or more of rainfall, which could result in flash flooding.
Daytime high temperatures will be mainly in the 80s to near 90
degrees. Lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

527
FXUS61 KCTP 160017
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
817 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
Wednesday afternoon and evening
* Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain forecast
through late week
* Heat risk builds Wednesday and likely peaks on Thursday with
potential for heat indices to exceed 100 degrees

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Very isolated and weakly forced airmass/terrain induced
convection mainly over the Allegheny "rim" this afternoon
should quickly dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime
heating.

Crumbling cumulus gives way to mainly clear skies tonight with
areas of fog/stratus are set to redevelop into early Wednesday
morning. It will be muggy with min temps 65-75F or 5 to 10
degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Fog/low stratus mix out shortly after sunrise giving way to a
mix of sun and clouds into the afternoon. Key message for
tomorrow centers around an elevated risk of excessive rainfall
and potential for flash flooding.

Return flow pattern continues to set the stage for rounds of
enhanced thunderstorms capable of producing very heavy rainfall
on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Given impressive
thermodynamics (MUCAPE >2000 J/kg), exceptional to near daily
record moisture availability (PW 1.5-2.2") and strong llvl
convergence signal, localized rainfall rates of 2"/hr are
probable and could quickly produce point totals of 2-4" in some
areas during the afternoon and evening. This will likely result
in instances of flash flooding particularly in areas recently
inundated by heavy rain over the past 24 to 48hrs. A watch will
likely be needed in the next 1-2 forecast cycles with growing
confidence based on recent trends in the hires/CAM guidance. The
heavy rain threat should taper off into Wednesday night.

While vertical shear will remain quite limited, SPC did expand
the MRGL risk over central PA to account for potential isolated
strong water-loaded wind gusts that could occur in the most
intense storm cores.

Building heat and increasing dewpoints are expected through
midweek with a peak in Heatrisk on Thursday afternoon. A heat
advisory may be needed for portions of south central and
southeast PA including the mid and lower Susquehanna Valley.

Additional PM thunderstorms with the potential for heavy
rainfall are likely on Thursday as a cold front pushes to the
southeast from the Lower Great Lakes. Minimum QPF signal over
the southeast half of the CWA may be related to capping and warm
temps aloft that would limit convective initiation/coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Signal in the latest suite of model guidance suggests that we
could be in for a bit of a drier and less humid stretch of wx
heading through the end of the week/start to the weekend. Sfc
cold front stalls just south of the MD line Saturday then
returns back to the north as a warm front by Sunday. So on
balance, Friday and Saturday could be dry in most places for the
majority of the time. Unsettled conditions are likely into
early next week with scattered thunderstorms. Typical max/min
temps near the historical avg for mid to late July with the
largest departures from climo normals vs. nighttime lows.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The rest of this evening should remain mostly quiet. There are a
few rain showers lingering across the state, but these showers
are mostly stationary and the probability of any restrictions
due to them remains less than 30 percent. Skies overnight will
remain mostly clear to scattered high clouds in some spots.
Winds tonight will remain calm with recent model soundings
showing little to no winds in the lowest 1km. Given the moist
atmosphere and calm winds fog is expected to impact most
airfields overnight tonight. Any fog that does develop will be
patchy in nature and quickly lift around sunrise.

For Wednesday, a weak upper level trough in combination of
high dewpoints and heating will result in the increasing
chance of shower and storms across the area after late morning.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the region by Wednesday afternoon and evening. The timing of
these storms will be difficult to nail down given the nature of
the surface convergence that will be driving them, but most
airfields will see periods of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
These storms may linger into at least early Thursday morning,
until a weak cold front drops south and east of the area.

Outlook...

Thu...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.

Fri-Sat...Mainly dry.

Sun...Showers and storms likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bowen

Latest Public Information Statement:

346
NOUS41 KCTP 151316
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-160116-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
916 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER 3 INCHES...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Columbia County...
BERWICK 5.29 in 0907 AM 07/15 CWOP
Berwick 4.72 in 0905 AM 07/15 AWS

...Lancaster County...
MOUNT JOY 7.59 in 0907 AM 07/15 CWOP
MOUNT JOY 7.39 in 0910 AM 07/15 CWOP
Columbia 6.39 in 0901 AM 07/15 CWOP
Mountville 0.5 NW 6.00 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Marietta 2.5 N 5.74 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Columbia 4.48 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Manheim 3.82 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Lancaster 5.8 WNW 3.81 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Mount Joy 3.59 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Landisville 0.8 WSW 3.54 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Safe Harbor 3.14 in 0800 AM 07/15 COOP

...Lycoming County...
Jersey Shore 6.1 SSE 3.58 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS

&&

**METADATA**
:7/15/2025,0905 AM, PA, Columbia, Berwick, , , 41.0614, -76.2364, RAIN, 4.72, Inch, AWS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0907 AM, PA, Columbia, BERWICK, , , 41.0642, -76.2387, RAIN, 5.29, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0800 AM, PA, Lancaster, Safe Harbor, , , 39.9244, -76.3911, RAIN, 3.14, Inch, COOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Landisville 0.8 WSW, , , 40.0913, -76.4254, RAIN, 3.54, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Mount Joy, , , 40.1133, -76.4993, RAIN, 3.59, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Lancaster 5.8 WNW, , , 40.0634, -76.4072, RAIN, 3.81, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Manheim, , , 40.1673, -76.4545, RAIN, 3.82, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Columbia, , , 40.0472, -76.499, RAIN, 4.48, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Marietta 2.5 N, , , 40.0927, -76.5586, RAIN, 5.74, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Mountville 0.5 NW, , , 40.0462, -76.4408, RAIN, 6, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0901 AM, PA, Lancaster, Columbia, , , 40.0518, -76.4751, RAIN, 6.39, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0910 AM, PA, Lancaster, MOUNT JOY, , , 40.1177, -76.5377, RAIN, 7.39, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0907 AM, PA, Lancaster, MOUNT JOY, , , 40.1093, -76.4942, RAIN, 7.59, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lycoming, Jersey Shore 6.1 SSE, , , 41.1246, -77.2058, RAIN, 3.58, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
MRS