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Latest PA Weather Story:

000
AWUS81 KCTP 151626
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-160630-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
1126 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

A stretch of below normal temperatures and generally dry weather
will persist through the weekend. A cold front will pass through
tonight, ushering in another cold high pressure system for
tomorrow.

While still colder than average, today will be milder than the
past few days, with temperatures ranging from the mid 30s in the
north to near 50 in southern Pennsylvania.

Daytime temperatures will drop back into the 30s and low 40s for
this weekend. A coastal storm may pass close enough to bring light
rain or a wintry mix to the eastern half of Pennsylvania Sunday
night and Monday, but forecast confidence is low at this time.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

117
FXUS61 KCTP 152011
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
311 PM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A moisture-starved cold front will drop southeast across the
region late today and tonight.

Another area of high pressure will move north of Lake Ontario
Saturday. The clock-wise flow around this high will feed cold
air into Pennsylvania on a brisk northeast wind.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
Weak low level troughing around the Gr Lakes is helping support
a small sliver of low clouds. Satellites shows these melting
away very slowly. There may be a light snow shower or flurry
under these clouds, but most locations will remain dry.

A weak cold front will slide SE through the CWA with little
fanfare other than some light flurries later today. NW PA will
have the best chance for a flurry.

The weak cold front will push south of the state tonight,
followed be yet another cold high pressure area. Sfc wind that
could gust between 15-20 mph at times, will veer through the
north then become northeasterly on Saturday.

Aside from a few flurries along, and in the wake of the front,
conditions will continue to be dry with abundant sunshine and
clear skies over the region to the south of the I-80 corridor.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will build north of the region Saturday, making
for a bright but chilly day in most areas with a brisk NE
breeze.

Max temps Saturday will run some 10-15 deg below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Not as cold but below-average temperature bias
*Monitoring potential for light wintry mix into early next week

A cold start to the period with the largest departures from
normal (-5 to -15 degrees) expected Saturday night and Sunday.
There is downside risk to minT AM Sunday with mainly clear skies
and very low dewpoints in the single digits. Would not be
surprised to see single digits lows in the usually colder spots
across the northern tier. Looking ahead to next week, expect
temperatures to gradually trend milder but with a below-normal
bias. The latest long term temperature outlooks favor below
average readings through the end of the month.

There remains some variability in the model guidance (low
confidence forecast) concerning the precipitation pattern next
week. The first period should come Sunday night into Monday
night as upstream trough energy takes on negative tilt moving
across the Appalachians before tracking up into the Northeast.
Model consensus supports a modest increase in POPs via NBM with
potential for rain/ice/snow over eastern portions of the CWA in
between the departing coastal low and approaching upper level
energy. Reiterating low confidence here especially with light
ice accumulation added to forecast per WPC/NBM blend. Need to
monitor the winter wx risk with potential travel impact to the
Monday morning commute.

There will likely be 2 more northern stream waves to contend
with around Wednesday and Friday. The midweek system has the
look of a fast-moving clipper followed by a brief period of lake
effect/upslope snow. The late week system is more of a
deepening frontal wave tracking through the Great Lakes and
dragging a strong cold front through the area Friday. Cold,
gusty northwest flow behind the late week system would
invigorate the lake effect machine. Overall predictability
trends lower with time so expect changes in the forecast going
forward.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest satellite shows MVFR ceilings hanging tough over the far
NW. These will more than likely remain in place into Saturday.
Elsewhere generally VFR conditions will continue over the
remainder of the region.

The wind will generally be light and variable coming around to
the N and NE by Saturday and becoming gusty.

.Outlook...

Fri...Perhaps a snow shower and brief restrictions at KBFD, but
otherwise mostly VFR.

Sat-Wed...No Sig Wx.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...La Corte
NEAR TERM...La Corte
SHORT TERM...La Corte
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...La Corte

Latest Public Information Statement:

791
NOUS41 KCTP 151212
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-160000-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
712 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2019

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

This week has been Winter Weather Awareness Week for Pennsylvania.

Each day we have featured a different educational message concerning
the dangers and safety concerns associated with winter weather.

Today`s Message:

FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA.

Very cold weather can be a health hazard. However by dressing
properly, you can safely spend time outdoors enjoying what the area
has to offer in the form of winter recreation, whether it be skiing,
snowmobiling, ice skating, or just taking in the winter scenery.

Very cold temperatures can rob your body of life sustaining warmth,
especially when combined with a strong wind. The combination of cold
temperatures and wind is known as the wind chill. The wind chill is
based on the rate of heat loss from exposed skin. As the wind speed
increases, the rate of heat loss from your body also increases. A
temperature of 20 degrees above zero with a wind can feel like a
bitter cold 6 degrees when the wind blows at 15 miles an hour.

Frostbite can occur when your fingers, cheeks, ears, toes, or even
the tip of your nose is exposed to sub-freezing temperatures for a
prolonged period of time. If any portion of your body becomes numb
due to the cold, go indoors immediately and slowly warm the affected
area to avoid tissue or nerve damage.

Hypothermia is potentially even more dangerous. This health hazard
is defined as the lowering of the body temperature below 95 degrees.
Warning signs of hypothermia include uncontrollable shivering,
memory loss, slurred speech, and disorientation. If not treated
immediately by keeping the person warm and seeking medical help,
hypothermia can be fatal.

Hypothermia can affect anyone, but the elderly are the most
susceptible. Over half the fatalities due to exposure from the cold
occur to people over 60 years of age. Young children are also
susceptible.

Be sure to dress properly for the cold. Always wear several layers
of warm, loose fitting clothing. These layers help to retain your
body heat better than one heavy layer, and they can be removed to
avoid perspiration and subsequent chill. The outer layer of clothes
should also be water repellent.

Don`t forget to wear a hat since a significant loss of body heat
occurs through your head. Also, mittens are better than gloves at
protecting your fingers from the extreme cold.


$$
Colbert