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Latest PA Weather Story:


000
AWUS81 KCTP 180834
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-182245-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
434 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

Sunshine is in store for most of the state today as high pressure
builds in. There will be some morning flurries across the north
before it begins to clear out there. It will be chilly, with
highs ranging from around 40 in the north to the lower 50s in the
cities along the Susquehanna River.

A widespread frost will occur over almost all of the state
tonight as high pressure slides just to the south. Temperatures
will drop to around 30 over the Poconos and north-central
counties. Much of the rest of the state will get very close to
freezing. Only the Philadelphia metro area and Erie lake shore
will stay close to 40 degrees.

Friday looks mostly sunny with just high cirrus clouds moving in
from the west. High temperatures will be in the 50s. The next
chance of rain arrives Friday night.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


764
FXUS61 KCTP 181057
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
657 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will nose in from the west today and slide to the
south of the state tonight and Friday. A slight warm up will
occur before a couple of cold fronts move through over the
weekend. Colder than normal temperatures but mainly dry weather
are expected for the first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
Last lake effect streamer making a decent radar return is
dissipating over Tioga and Sullivan Cos. Only flurries for the
rest of the morning. Clouds still pretty extensive, but high-
based and should be getting squashed by subsidence and pushed
N/NE by the backing llvl flow. Not much of an update needed.

Prev...
Lake effect is breaking up as the high pressure and associated
subsidence works in from the west. However, the cold advection
will continue and cross-lake fetch will still be directed into
NW PA until mid-day. So, expect sct SHSN to diminish to flurries
before dying this morning. Clouds over the NW will also be on
the decrease through the day, but sunshine will be the rule
elsewhere. Maxes will be in the l50s in the Susq valley but
around 40F in the nrn mtns. The wind will be much lighter than
yesterday, but still noticeable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The center of the high pressure dome will slide to our south
through the short term. The wind will die off in the valleys
overnight, but stay up a few mph on the higher elevations. The
sky will be clear and allow for nearly ideal radiational
cooling. The SE half of the forecast area is still considered to
be in the growing season, so the need for frost/freeze headlines
appears tonight. The min temps will vary widely, as the
outlying and valley locations will drop quickly and likely be
below freezing. But, the higher elevations (with the puff of
wind they may keep all night), and the urban areas will probably
not get to/below freezing. The patchwork of frost/freeze
headlines were smoothed a bit to make it more palatable. The
normal cold sink of THV will likely go below freezing. But,
temps do not look to be that low immediately surrounding that
site. Expect most of the south-central mountains to stay barely
above freezing, especially in the more-populous areas.

Friday looks great after the frosty start. A light SWrly wind
and good warm advection aloft will help the maxes get about 10F
higher than today. Clouds will be tough to find in the morning,
but cirrus will slide in from the OH valley. Any light rain will
hold off until close to midnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
*A taste of winter Saturday Night-Sunday. Blustery winds, snow
showers, reduced visibility with some accumulation in the
higher elevations

Light rain showers are fcst spread into central PA Friday night
into Saturday. QPF is less than 0.25 inch through 00Z Sunday.

A more potent shot of cold air will be accompanied by gusty
winds and snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Light snow
accumulation seems likely in the NW snowbelt and higher
elevations of the Allegheny Plateau down into the Laurel
Highlands (along/west of US-219). Wind chills in the low 30s NW
to low 40s SE on Sunday will make it feel more like early
December than late October. Conditions should improve into
Monday as high pressure migrates eastward from the Mid MS
Valley. Tuesday-Wednesday look seasonably cool and mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Streamers of mid-level clouds at 3000-5000 ft continue to work
in from the NW as robust flow continues early this morning as
high pressure builds in from the west. MVFR cigs will likely
impact the NW mtns intermittently through the mid morning with a
flurry or two still possible, while a gradual decrease in cloud
cover likely elsewhere as drier air continues to work in.

Surface winds have settled down to around 10 mph in most places,
though higher on the ridgetops. Mixing will bring winds back up
to 10-20 mph from mid morning into mid afternoon, with
gradually diminishing winds late today into tonight.

Mainly clear skies tonight as the wind will die off in the
valleys but stay up a few mph in the higher elevations as it
gradually turns to the SW. On Friday, cirrus will slide in from
the Ohio Valley during the day followed by lowering ceilings
Fri night with a chance for light rain developing mainly after
midnight.

.Outlook...

Thu-Fri...No sig wx expected.

Sat...AM low cigs/LLWS likely W Mtns. Scattered showers and
areas of mainly MVFR cigs as a cold front pushes SE across the
PA airfields.

Sun...SHSNRA/cig reductions likely NW Mtns before dawn through
the day. Breezy NW wind.

Mon...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ045-046-
049>053-058-059.
Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-056-057-063>066.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...RXR


Latest Public Information Statement:


000
NOUS41 KCTP 151130
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042-151600-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
730 AM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

October 15 marks the end of the 2018 growing season for the
following counties: Warren, McKean, Potter, Tioga, Elk, Cameron,
Clearfield, Cambria, Somerset, Sullivan, northern Lycoming,
northern Clinton and northern Centre.

Therefore, we will no longer be issuing frost-freeze headlines
for these counties until the next growing season begins in the
spring of 2019.

$$

CJE