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Latest PA Weather Summary:

784
AWUS81 KCTP 150755
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-152200-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
355 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

High pressure will make a noticeably cooler and less humid day
today with partly to mostly sunny skies across the Commonwealth. Highs
will range from near 60 degrees in the Northwest Alleghenies to
the upper 70s in the lower Delaware Valley. Those values will be 5
to 15 degrees below normal for mid June. A northwest breeze of 10
to 15 MPH could make it feel even cooler.

Tonight, it will get rather chilly for mid-June. Mainly clear
skies and light wind will help the temperatures drop into the 40s
and lower 50s. Only Philadelphia and Erie will stay close to
normal lows in the mid to upper 50s.

The wind will be out of the southwest on Tuesday, which should
help it warm up 5 to 10 degrees warmer than today. Highs will be
in the 70s under partly to mostly sunny skies.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

505
FXUS61 KCTP 151051
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
651 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably pleasant start to the week with low humidity and
no rainfall

2) Severe thunderstorm risk for Thursday 6/18

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably pleasant start to the week with low
humidity and no rainfall

Dry and sub-normal temperature airmass is sliding overhead.
Dewpoint at BFD is already into the 40s. NW wind across all the
CWA should help dewpoints lower everywhere, but there could be
some fog around sunrise, especially in the more-clear spots
(S/E). However, the expected wind could keep the fog at bay.
Doesn`t hurt to mention patchy fog at least. Really would be
better for fog if the wind would slacken. The clouds will
continue to decrease this morning, but diurnal heating and the
passage of a weak shortwave trough aloft will help increase the
clouds slightly for the aftn. Maxes will be 5F to 15F below
normals today, barely getting into the 60s over the NW and the
highest elevations of the Laurels. The SE will have subsidence
to help them warm up slightly better w.r.t. the potential temps
vs the rest of the CWA. Maxes there = M70s. Mins tonight will be
pretty chilly for mid-June, 44-54F across the CWA and wind could
go calm. That could make a little river valley fog in the N.
Tonight, it will be the dryness of the airmass that could keep
fog from forming (vs the wind this morning). Will hold off on
mentioning fog for tonight. Later shifts can refine. Temps
bounce up 5-10F on Tues, with sky cover similar to today. A
couple of really nice days.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Severe thunderstorm risk for Thursday 6/18

The nose of a very strong, 40+ KT swrly 850 mb jet 50+ KT at 700
mb (both being 3+ sigma on the standardized anomaly scale), the
the right entrance region of a 100 KT 250 mb jet and PWATS
around 1.5 inches (with the potential of a EML surging in from
the west ahead of a strong sfc cold front) will bring the ideal
synoptic setup for a severe weather outbreak here in the CWA. As
always, even with the moisture and shear present, such strong
forcing could produce plenty of clouds and early day convection.
That would stabilize the atmos and decrease the potential for
significant afternoon severe weather. It does look a little more
possible that Wed night/Thurs morning convection could
delay/impact the destabilization for Thurs. Without a strong
trend, changes to Day4 are not necessary. We`ll be monitoring
this potential for severe weather closely.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR conditions remain at JST as of 10Z Monday; however, expect
rapid clearing of the low-level deck with high confidence in VFR
conditions prevailing after 14Z based on a consensus of
HREF/NBM model guidance. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are virtually
certain (> 90% confidence) with low-level cloud decks generally
around or above 4,000ft AGL. Main aviation concern throughout
the entire TAF package will be breezy northwesterly winds that
could allow for some crosswind component at AOO/UNV/IPT/LNS
between 15Z-22Z Monday before winds begin to become lighter
overnight. Current guidance outlines low (< 30%) potential for
fog formation given low-level dry air filtering in with the
passage of the cold front.

Outlook...

Tue...Mostly VFR with isolated -SHRA/-TSRA possible.

Wed...Higher chances for -SHRA/-TSRA, restrictions more likely.

Thu...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.

Fri...Showers ending.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Beaty

Latest Public Information Statement:

054
NOUS41 KCTP 121459
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-130259-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1059 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

...MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX REPORTS FROM JUNE 11TH 2026...

Location Heat Idx. Time/Date Provider
Harrisburg Intl Airport 102 F 0256 PM 06/11 ASOS
Capitol City Airport 102 F 0356 PM 06/11 ASOS
Mifflin County Airport-RVL 102 F 0135 PM 06/11 AWOS
Lancaster Airport 101 F 0353 PM 06/11 ASOS
Selinsgrove 101 F 0453 PM 06/11 ASOS
York Airport 100 F 0353 PM 06/11 ASOS
Lock Haven Airport 100 F 0219 PM 06/11 AWOS
Williamsport Airport 99 F 0554 PM 06/11 ASOS
Altoona-Blair County Airport 95 F 0453 PM 06/11 AWOS
State College Regional Airport 95 F 0353 PM 06/11 AWOS
Bedford Airport 93 F 0315 PM 06/11 AWOS
Joe Zerbey Airport 92 F 0455 PM 06/11 AWOS
Clearfield Airport 91 F 0254 PM 06/11 ASOS
Wellsboro Airport 91 F 0535 PM 06/11 AWOS
Johnstown Airport 86 F 0354 PM 06/11 ASOS
Bradford Airport 86 F 1253 PM 06/11 ASOS
Somerset Airport 85 F 0355 PM 06/11 AWOS

&&

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
MRS