All Text Forecasts

Forecaster's
Discussion:

County-by-County
Forecast:

Daily Co-operative Station
Observation Summary:

Public Information
Statement:

All NWS State College Text Statements/Forecasts:

Latest PA Weather Summary:

116
AWUS81 KCTP 170702
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-172115-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
302 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A weak system moving across the Great Lakes will continue to
bring a few showers and thundershowers across the Commonwealth
this morning, with shower/thunderstorm activity ending west-to-
east through the afternoon. Otherwise, expect a mix of clouds and
sun with mainly dry conditions & a southwesterly breeze of 10 to
15 mph. Afternoon highs will range from the upper 70s across the
Allegheny Plateau to the mid 80s over southeastern Pennsylvania.

Clouds will increase this evening as a more potent low pressure
system approaches from the Midwest, bringing a band of showers
with embedded thunderstorms & increasingly breezy conditions
overnight. These showers and storms will weaken as they move
eastward into more stable air, though gusty winds will remain
possible with this activity as it weakens. Lows will range from
the upper 50s across the Northern Tier to the upper 60s by the
Philadelphia and Pittsburgh metro areas.

Drier air will filter in behind this system on Thursday, allowing
for sunshine to break out midday. However, it will be unusually
breezy for mid-June, with westerly winds gusting in excess of 30
mph. These gusts may blow around unsecured outdoor objects and
cause spotty power interruptions.

In the wake of this system, seasonable temperatures and mainly
dry conditions will return to close out the week.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

932
FXUS61 KCTP 170850
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
450 AM EDT Wed Jun 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Decrease in severe threat across much of southeastern
Pennsylvania Thursday afternoon/evening.
* Increasing potential for gradient winds on Thursday reaching
close to Wind Advisory criteria across N/W PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of showers and thunderstorms through Thursday
evening bring some excessive rainfall tonight into Thursday
morning and severe threat Thursday afternoon/evening.

2) Gusty winds, some of which approaching 40-50 mph, expected
across the northwestern half of the Commonwealth on Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of showers and thunderstorms through
Thursday evening bring some excessive rainfall tonight into
Thursday morning and severe threat Thursday afternoon/evening.

Current radar (as of 4:30AM EDT) outlines a line of gusty
showers with an isolated thunderstorm generally along a line
north/south of UNV. Recent observations at JST/AOO/FIG outline
maximum wind gusts between 30-35kts and there remains not very
much in the way of instability in place so generally expect
these showers to gradually dwindle as they progress eastward and
out of our forecast area around sunrise. In terms of
appreciable rainfall, fast movement of these showers will likely
make the ground wet but not expecting large-scale rainfall
exceeding 0.05" this morning.

Focus will begin to shift towards the MCS and associated cold
front that is expected to bring widespread severe weather the
portions of central Illinois and the progression of this feature
this evening as it tracks closer to the Commonwealth. Recent
HRRR/RAP model guidance outlines that the bulk of convective
activity will be west of the region before intensity begins to
ramp down as it reaches the OH-PA border during the late evening
hours. Thus, it looks that the severe threat for our western
zones will likely be muted compared to previous concerns, but
still should be monitored in the near-term as some model
solutions could weaken this feature slightly more than what will
be observed. The main concern with respect to this feature in
out area; however, will be the prospect heavy rainfall threat
across portions of NW PA. PWATs reaching potentially exceeding
1.50" across portions of NW PA with more recent HREF ensemble
guidance in the one area of central PA that has relatively low
FFGs. That being said, FFGs here do still remain over one inch
and with forecast rainfall (even PMMs) not exceeding one inch,
it looks as if the flooding concern is fairly low.

The period of most interest to many that have been following
the forecast will likely be the Thursday afternoon and evening
timeframe. In terms of the severe threat, SPC has downtrended
much of the area from a Slight (Level 2/5) to a Marginal (Level
1/5) risk for severe weather. Initial look at guidance points
towards timing of the cold front that has lowered the overall
severe threat with a faster progression and much more cloud
cover from remnant shower/storm activity mentioned in the
previous paragraph. This line of showers and thunderstorms will
likely be the main driver for the Marginal Risk across much of
the region. Further southeast, a slightly more complicated
forecast is in play, with the cold frontal passage moving
quicker and potentially limiting the prospect of thunderstorms
forming ahead of the cold front. In fact, model soundings across
the region also look remarkably dry, thus we might have little
coverage in thunderstorms in general Thursday afternoon/evening.
That being said, there will still be ample shear in place
across the region, thus if a thunderstorm does get going with
sufficient instability, we cannot rule out that scattered
strong-to-severe thunderstorm that will bring down some damaging
wind potential across the area. This corridor in SE PA is also
highlighted by the most recent HREF probability for severe
winds; however, this guidance will also outline the threat has
decreased across much of the region.

---------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Gusty winds, some of which approaching 40-50
mph, expected across the northwestern half of the Commonwealth
on Thursday.

Anomalously strong surface low-pressure stationed across
southern Ontario moving into Quebec will bring a fairly tight
pressure gradient across much of central Pennsylvania Thursday
morning and into the evening hours. Closest approach based on
more recent deterministic model guidance brings increased
winds/gusts ~03Z Thursday and likely continuing throughout the
day across much of the region. Recent NBM QMD 24-hour maximum
wind gusts brings the southeastern half of the Commonwealth in
the 35-40 mph with much of the northwestern half of the
Commonwealth closer to the 45-55 mph range. Given that this
model guidance does tend to do slightly better than base NBM
forecast gusts in this set-up have decided to increase gusts
well above NBM model guidance in this timeframe. There remains
some potential for Wind Advisory considerations for zones along
the Allegheny Front with respect to potential wind gusts
Thursday; however, lower confidence and marginal gusts
approaching criteria will be make it to where mentions in the
HWO suffice this cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak shortwave moving northeastward across the Great Lakes
will continue to bring scattered showers and thundershowers over
the Commonwealth through Wednesday afternoon. Although VFR will
prevail, brief MVFR/IFR visibility restrictions are possible in
the heaviest showers (for example, 04:37Z observation at KBFD
showed 2 1/2 SM visibility in SHRA). Modest CAPE within the
mixed-phase zone (~50 J/kg of CAPE between -10C and -30C) will
support occasional lightning in the strongest cells, with
mentions to be handled by TEMPOs wherever confidence in
lightning is higher.

Shower activity will generally wane between 14Z-18Z Wednesday,
with a SCT-BKN VFR cumulus deck in place during the afternoon.
A few diurnally driven showers/thundershowers may develop
(PROB30) between 17Z-21Z over the eastern terminals
(KIPT/KMDT/KLNS) as the shortwave continues exiting the region,
though most areas will remain dry. Otherwise, southwest winds
will increase to around 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts
likely during the day.

High clouds will filter overhead Wednesday evening ahead of a
potent low pressure system moving across the Great Lakes. A
band of -SHRA/-RA will overspread much of the Commonwealth from
west to east overnight, followed by the passage of a decaying
MCS. While the MCS will be weakening as it encounters more
stable air across central Pennsylvania, it will be coincident
with an unseasonably strong nocturnal LLJ (~65 kts at 850 mb,
above the 99th percentile for this time of year). As such, a
period of LLWS concerns + southerly ridgetop wind gusts are
likely overnight, along with the potential for gusty winds to be
transported within the weakening MCS.

Outlook...

Wed...Higher chances for -SHRA/-TSRA, restrictions more likely
late. High probability (90+ percent) for LLWS Wed night into
Thursday morning as the axis of an anomalously strong
south/southwesterly LLJ slides east across the Commonwealth.

Thu...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.

Fri...Showers ending.

Sat-Sun...Chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the
north and west.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Beaty
KEY MESSAGES...Beaty
DISCUSSION...Beaty
AVIATION...Teare

Latest Public Information Statement:

371
NOUS41 KCTP 162156
PNSCTP
PAZ066-170200-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
556 PM EDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...NWS Damage Survey for 06/14/2026 Tornado Event...

Multiple rotating thunderstorms moved across Central Pennsylvania
the evening of Sunday June 14th. One of these storms produced an
EF1 tornado near Kirkwood in Lancaster County.

..Kirkwood Tornado...

Rating: EF1
Estimated Peak Wind: 100 mph
Path Length /statute/: 2.87 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 30 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 06/14/2026
Start Time: 09:32 PM EDT
Start Location: 5 SE Quarryville / Lancaster County / PA
Start Lat/Lon: 39.8365 / -76.1133

End Date: 06/14/2026
End Time: 09:37 PM EDT
End Location: 3 NW Mount Vernon / Lancaster County / PA
End Lat/Lon: 39.8463 / -76.0609

Survey Summary:
A storm survey team from The National Weather Service office in
State College confirmed an EF-1 tornado near Kirkwood in
Lancaster County. Maximum winds of 90-100 mph snapped several
tree trunks and large limbs. The damage began on Wesley Rd
between Puseyville Rd and Noble Rd in Little Britain Township at
approximately 9:32 PM EDT on Sunday, Jun 14. Over the next
5 minutes, the tornado continued into Colerain Township,
producing sporadic damage including damage to trees on Noble Rd
near White Rock Rd and damage to power poles on Kirkwood Pike
near Morrison Mill Rd.

&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0.....65 to 85 mph
EF1.....86 to 110 mph
EF2.....111 to 135 mph
EF3.....136 to 165 mph
EF4.....166 to 200 mph
EF5.....>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in
NWS Storm Data.


$$
Colbert