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Latest PA Weather Summary:

573
AWUS81 KCTP 300805
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-302215-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
405 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

An increasing warm and humid airmass will work to the east and
north into the Keystone state today into Tuesday. This will result
in showers and storms at times, some with heavy rain and perhaps
gusty winds.

More in the way of drier weather and less humid conditions will
work into the region for the second half of the week, as a series
of cold fronts move across the Keystone state.

High temperatures today will well into the 80s. Lows tonight will
be in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Highs on Tuesday will be a few
degrees cooler, as extensive cloud cover prevails. Highs will
range from the 70s across the mountains, to the 80s elsewhere on
Tuesday.

$$

Martin

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

078
FXUS61 KCTP 300601
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
201 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Mainly clear to partly cloudy night with patchy valley fog
possible across CPA.
* Stormy pattern resumes Monday-Tuesday with a renewed risk of
strong to severe storms and locally heavy downpours
* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely
through midweek with high confidence of nice wx on the 4th

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Showers and storms have struggled to make it across the MD
boarder this afternoon, leaving the area with mostly clear skies
heading into this evening.

Any lingering Cu will fade as the sun sets with a mainly clear
to partly cloudy night ahead. There will be some fog in the
valleys from the predawn hours through daybreak Monday. Fog may
be limited to some extent by increasing mid and high clouds as
WAA pattern ramps up over the Ohio Valley downstream of 500mb
trough moving into the Upper Midwest. Lows tonight will feel
similar to last night with near 70F likely across the Lower
Susquehanna Valley to low 60s in the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
*Stormy End to June/Start of July moving into the 2H of 2025

A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley regions on Monday. A cold front will
accompany the Midwest mid-level trough and should reach western
PA by 12Z Tuesday.

In advance of the cold front, plenty of moisture/instability
will be present to support at least scattered thunderstorms by
peak heating. Given the presence of weak/modest vertical wind
shear, a few of the storms could become strong to locally
severe. Strong boundary-layer heating is fcst with 2000+ J/kg
of tall/thin SBCAPE) amid weak (<30kt) 0-6km deep layer wind
shear. This environment will support wet downburst potential
and a couple of damaging wind gusts are possible Monday
afternoon and evening. SPC has all of CPA in a level 1/5 MRGL
svr tstm risk for D2.

The aforementioned mid-level trough will shift east from the
Great Lakes to the Northeast on Tuesday. Moderate mid-level flow
will overspread much of the region. At the surface, a cold
front will move east across PA and will be the primary focus
for severe thunderstorm potential Tuesday afternoon/evening.

Stronger shear profiles will be present on D3 and this may
result in greater storm organization/intensity including the
potential for a few supercells capable of producing large hail
and damaging wind gusts. SPC will expand the level 1 MRGL svr
risk for D3, but we would not be surprised to see an future
upgrade to SLGT or level 2/5 given the more robust shear
profiles.

Max/min temps will be seasonably warm/muggy for late June and
early July in the 80-90/60-70F range to start the week. Temps
will cool off a bit on Tuesday/Tuesday night behind the front
over the north/west Alleghenies.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* Expect a drier and more comfortable stretch of weather for
Wed-Sat.
* Increasing confidence in nice/dry weather on July 4th.

There is growing confidence in a drier and more comfortable
stretch of weather from midweek into the first weekend of July.
Expanding on the drier/comfortable stretch, we are talking
specifically about: 1) little to no rainfall and 2) noticeably
lower heat and humidity.

A moisture-starved cold front will provide the "best" chance of
rain Thursday PM, but overall we expect the majority of the
time to be dry during the Wed-Sat period.

Max/min temps will be close to the historical average during
the first week of July. There are signals for heat and humidity
to ramp upward by the end of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lone shower in south central PA died shortly after Midnight.
However the edge of the higher dewpts not much further south
and also to our west, once one gets into OH.

NAM shows showers and storms will try to work in from both
the southeast and west toward mid to late aft. Highest chc
of thunder will be mainly west of a BFD, JST line.

Did not make any big changes to the earlier TAF fcst.

CIGS likely to be rather high with showers and storms this
afternoon, but would would lower down by mid to late evening.

Earlier discussion below.

Predominantly VFR conds are expected to continue overnight,
although there is low confidence that some spots could see the
development of fog/low clouds during the predawn hours. High
and mid level clouds may help to limit fog development.

Scattered SHRA/TSRA impacts are expected Monday afternoon and
evening, and have added a PROB30 group to several TAF sites Mon
aftn/eve to highlight the potential for brief restrictions.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...PM showers & t-storms likely; areas of fog & low
clouds overnight.

Wed...AM fog, then VFR.

Thu...Primarily VFR; stray PM shower/t-storm possible.

Fri...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Bowen
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl/Evanego
AVIATION...Martin/Evanego

Latest Public Information Statement:

425
NOUS41 KCTP 232112
PNSCTP
PAZ034-240115-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
512 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

...NWS Damage Survey for the June 17, 2025 York Road Tornado - Update...

.York Road Tornado...

Rating: EF1
Estimated Peak Wind: 95 mph
Path Length /statute/: 1.1 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 175 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 06/17/2025
Start Time: 06:09 PM EDT
Start Location: 2 WNW Barnes Gap / Bedford County / PA
Start Lat/Lon: 39.7869 / -78.363

End Date: 06/17/2025
End Time: 06:11 PM EDT
End Location: 1 NNW Barnes Gap / Bedford County / PA
End Lat/Lon: 39.7831 / -78.3436

Survey Summary:
The National Weather Service in State College has confirmed an EF-
1 tornado in southeastern Bedford County during the evening hours
of June 17, 2025. Maximum winds were estimated at 95 mph.

The tornado began just northeast of the intersection of Robinsonville
Road and Sideling Hill Creek Road, causing tree damage as it
continued to parallel Sideling Hill Creek Road. Multiple softwood
and hardwood trees were snapped and uprooted along both sides of
upper York Road, with power line poles and wires being knocked
down near a residence on upper York Road. There were also
multiple uprooted softwood and hardwood trees along lower York
Road. The tornado first crossed upper York Road and then crossed
Shreveport Road northeast of the intersection with York Road. The
tornado then crossed the East Branch of Sideling Hill Creek,
producing additional tree damage before dissipating west of
Browning Road.

We would like to thank local emergency management, utility
companies, and storm spotters who provided information regarding this
storm damage.

&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0.....65 to 85 mph
EF1.....86 to 110 mph
EF2.....111 to 135 mph
EF3.....136 to 165 mph
EF4.....166 to 200 mph
EF5.....>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in
NWS Storm Data.


$$

ADE/JCG/NPB