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Latest PA Weather Summary:

359
AWUS81 KCTP 040942
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-042345-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
542 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

A ridge of high pressure stretched across Eastern
Pennsylvania early today will maintain dry weather
through at least early this afternoon.

Patches of clearing through the high clouds, along with
light wind and moderately high surface dewpoints
will lead to locally dense fog in many of the Central and
Northern Valleys through about 10 AM today.

A weak cold front will push gradually southeast
across the state today. A preceding surface trough will
focus moisture across the Susquehanna Valley and points
east this afternoon and evening, leading to isolated
to scattered showers and maybe even a few stray
thunderstorms. High temperatures this afternoon will
be mainly in the low to mid 70s across the bulk of the
state, except for the Greater Pittsburgh and Philly
areas where the mercury will climb into the upper 70s.

Areas of clouds will linger tonight but it will be
generally dry. Lows tonight will vary from the mid 40s
over the Northwest Mountains to the Upper 50s in the
larger Southeast Metro Areas.

High pressure will build east and become centered
over the state on Saturday, bringing abundant sunshine
and comfortable temperatures with low humidity and
excellent visibility to start the first weekend of
October. Highs will range through the 60s over the
Northern and Western Mountains to the mid and upper
70s across the Southeast Piedmont region.

Most of Sunday will be dry, though clouds will be on
the increase Sunday afternoon and a southerly breeze
will freshen with gusts into the mid teens.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

428
FXUS61 KCTP 041147
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
747 AM EDT Fri Oct 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
* Locally dense valley fog will occur throughout Central and
Northern PA through 10 AM today; Clouds and a stray shower or
thunderstorm possible over east-central PA later today into
early tonight along and ahead of a weak cold front.
* A great start to the first weekend of October; rain showers
return from NW->SE later Sunday through Sunday night as a
stronger cold front pushes through.
* Drying out and cooling down next week with a frost risk
beginning early Tuesday and continuing each night/early
morning through Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High clouds streaming NE across the Central Appalachians
and Mid Atlantic Region (above a ridge of sfc high pressure
over eastern PA) had enough thin spots in them to allow for
fairly strong radiational cooling to a near zero T/Td spread
in many locations - ranging from the mid to upper 40s over the
Central and Northern Mtns to the low and mid 50s in the Susq
Valley.

The presence of the moderately high dewpoints over our eastern
zones (and the formation/approach of a lee trough and a weak
cold front later this afternoon along with the left exit region
of a 70 kt southern stream upper jet) will promote the
development of isolated to scattered mid afternoon to evening
SHRA/TSRA across mainly the Susq Valley and points east.

0-1KM ML CAPE climbs to several hundred J/KG per the 06Z NAM
which is about 40-50 percent of the instability that we saw on
the 00Z run. This reduced CAPE may be the result of more
extensive and longer-lasting stratus/stratocu that have
advected NNE over the Scent Mtns and Susq Valley early today.

HREF shows these clouds persisting into the mid afternoon but
slowly breaking up, while much of the Central Mtns and Laurel
Highlands should turn mostly sunny for the late morning through
late afternoon (between the lee trough and approaching cold
front).

Temps to start the day will range from mid/upper 40s over the
Northern Mtns to mid 50s along the MD border (+5-10F above the
historical average for early October).

Warm advection preceding the cold front should push temps into
the low to mid 70s this afternoon with the largest anomalies
over the Allegheny Plateau, where the most sunshine is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure and an associated low-pwat airmass is progged to
build southeast into PA Saturday, providing the region with
mostly sunny skies and excellent visibility.

Ensemble mean 850mb temps in the 7-9C range support highs
ranging from the mid 60s over the N Mtns, to the mid 70s in the
Lower Susq Valley. Have undercut NBM dewpoints Sat afternoon
based on model soundings, which show very dry air above a weak
inversion.

Fair and seasonable weather appears likely into the second half
of this weekend, as surface high pressure builds across the
state. We`ll continue to slightly undercut NBM min temps
Saturday night, when conditions favor efficient radiational
cooling directly under the surface high. This will also be
favorable for morning fog across typical fog prone areas across
the Commonwealth through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Increasing clouds ahead of the next chance of showers are
expected Sunday night as a cold front approaches central
Pennsylvania. This forecast continues to outline the best
chances for rainfall in the overnight period into Monday morning
across the northern tier and the Laurel Highlands. Rainfall is
expected to continue with a east/northeasterly progression
throughout the Monday morning hours. Instability continues to
look fairly limited to the earliest hours Sunday night across
the western highlands along with the Lower Susquehanna Valley,
so have retained SChc of thunderstorms in this period. Storm
chances decrease closer to daybreak on Monday, so have limited
precipitation mentions to just showers this forecast cycle.

Enhanced westerly flow in the wake of the cold front will allow
for lingering showers across mainly NW PA throughout the day on
Monday. Guidance does outline high pressure beginning to build
into the area late Monday and into the mid-week allowing for
drier conditions to prevail for the bulk of central PA although
have retained low-end SChc PoPs across NW PA on Wednesday with
enhanced westerly flow continuing throughout the period.

High pressure influencing the area will allow for clear/mostly
clear skies which does promote undercutting NBM MinTs Tuesday
and Wednesday nights. The combination of clear skies, light
winds,and cooler temperatures start to bring the first concerns
of frost into the forecast across N PA. Have introduced frost
mentions on Tuesday night given a slightly more favorable set-
up for frost formation while limiting mentions on Wednesday
night due to more uncertainty, but given similar environmental
set-up, subsequent forecast packages may need to introduce
frost mentions for this period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Fog concerns will be concentrated throughout the Central Valleys
of PA through about 13Z where visbys will be locally below 1/4SM
with low/very low IFR cigs. Further away from the epicenter of
the fog, 1/2SM-2SM vsbys in fog will be common with low end MVFR
cigs and patchy dense fog with lower cigs.

Vsbys and Cigs will improve by 14z, with the best conditions
developing across the Central Mtns and Laurel Highlands for the
late morning and afternoon. Stratus/stratocu deck between
010-020 will be tough to burn off even into early this afternoon
ahead of a north/south lee trough that will be over the Susq
Valley after 16Z.

The clouds in the east should become scattered-bkn in the
18-20Z Friday timeframe with isolated to scattered convection
developing.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun PM...Patchy AM Valley Fog; otherwise, VFR prevails.

Sun PM-Mon...SHRA moves in west-to-east, some TSRA possible.

Tue-Wed...VFR, no sig wx.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Total precipitation for the month of September was 1.11 inches
at Williamsport (-3.65" below average) which ranks as the 11th
driest on record.

The average temperature for the month of September was 63.1
degrees at Bradford (+4.2F above average) which ranks as the
warmest September on record.

Harrisburg (MDT) consecutive days streak of measurable rain
ends at 9 with only a trace recorded yesterday 10/2. This ties
the record for longest such stretch set from April 7-15, 1893
and matched May 15-23, 1893 and July 28-August 5, 1971.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...NPB/Bowen
AVIATION...Lambert/Gartner/Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff

Latest Public Information Statement:

648
NOUS41 KCTP 221715
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-230515-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
115 PM EDT Sun Sep 22 2024

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Adams County...
New Oxford 1.3 SSE 2.65 in 0730 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
1 SE New Oxford 2.56 in 0200 AM 09/22 Trained Spotter
New Oxford 0.8 SE 2.56 in 0730 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
HANOVER 2.49 in 1228 PM 09/22 CWOP
Abbottstown 2.0 N 1.85 in 0800 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Abbottstown 2.4 N 1.82 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
York Springs 2.5 N 1.63 in 0703 AM 09/22 COCORAHS

...Cambria County...
Johnstown Airport 1.04 in 1154 AM 09/22 ASOS

...Cumberland County...
Carlisle 7.2 SSW 2.03 in 0800 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
MOUNT HOLLY SPRINGS 1.30 in 1221 PM 09/22 CWOP

...Dauphin County...
1 NW Rutherford Heights 3.61 in 0100 AM 09/22 Public
1 SW Rutherford Heights 2.44 in 0100 AM 09/22 Public
Middletown 2.9 NW 2.31 in 0800 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Harrisburg Intl Airport 2.20 in 1225 PM 09/22 ASOS
Middletown 0.9 N 1.96 in 0811 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
2 NW Progress 1.47 in 1220 PM 09/22 AWS
Manda Gap 1.45 in 1218 PM 09/22 RAWS
Hummelstown 1.41 in 1225 PM 09/22 CWOP
Harrisburg 1.40 in 1220 PM 09/22 CWOP
1 WNW Skyline View 1.16 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
HUMMELSTOWN 1.09 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
Hummelstown 0.6 WNW 1.06 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Harrisburg 1.02 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
Linglestown 0.7 NNE 1.01 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS

...Lebanon County...
Indiantown Run 1.16 in 1213 PM 09/22 RAWS
Lebanon 4.8 N 1.08 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS

...Lycoming County...
Slate Run 2.30 in 1200 PM 09/22 COOP
WILLIAMSPORT 1.59 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP

...Northumberland County...
1 WSW Northumberland 4.46 in 1045 PM 09/21 Public
Hawi 2.31 in 1215 PM 09/22 CWOP
0.6 SW Sunbury 2.10 in 0930 AM 09/22 COOP

...Perry County...
Duncannon 1.01 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP

...Potter County...
4 NE Denton Hill State Park 2.00 in 0715 PM 09/21 Trained Spotter
Germania 1.21 in 1221 PM 09/22 CWOP

...Schuylkill County...
Valley View 0.5 W 1.00 in 0600 AM 09/22 COCORAHS

...Snyder County...
Port Trevorton 1.80 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
Selinsgrove 2.6 WNW 1.57 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Selinsgrove 1.52 in 1153 AM 09/22 ASOS

...Sullivan County...
LOPEZ 1.33 in 1226 PM 09/22 CWOP

...Union County...
Lewisburg 2.52 in 0600 AM 09/22 COOP
LEWISBURG 1.66 in 1229 PM 09/22 CWOP
1.1 NW Milton 1.29 in 1130 AM 09/22 HADS
LEWISBURG 1.07 in 1226 PM 09/22 CWOP

...York County...
Valley Green 1.62 in 0635 AM 09/22 Public
Valley Green 0.8 ENE 1.62 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
Valley Green 1.47 in 1230 PM 09/22 AWS
East Berlin 3.4 ESE 1.46 in 0600 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
York Airport 1.44 in 1153 AM 09/22 ASOS
2 E Codorus 1.44 in 1220 PM 09/22 AWS
Mount Wolf 1.0 SE 1.39 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
York Haven 2.3 WNW 1.37 in 0800 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
York 1.35 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
Hanover 1.3 SSE 1.25 in 0528 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
THOMASVILLE 1.22 in 1220 PM 09/22 CWOP
Mount Wolf 1.21 in 1230 PM 09/22 CWOP
York 1.19 in 1215 PM 09/22 CWOP
York 3.4 NE 1.00 in 0700 AM 09/22 COCORAHS
&&

**METADATA**
:9/22/2024,0703 AM, PA, Adams, York Springs 2.5 N, , , 40.0447, -77.1231, RAIN_24, 1.63, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Adams, Abbottstown 2.4 N, , , 39.9192, -76.9894, RAIN_24, 1.82, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0800 AM, PA, Adams, Abbottstown 2.0 N, , , 39.9131, -76.9895, RAIN_24, 1.85, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1228 PM, PA, Adams, HANOVER, , , 39.7913, -77.0437, RAIN_24, 2.49, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0200 AM, PA, Adams, 1 SE New Oxford, , , 39.854014554539, -77.04503805721, RAIN_24, 2.56, Inch, Trained Spotter, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0730 AM, PA, Adams, New Oxford 0.8 SE, , , 39.854, -77.046, RAIN_24, 2.56, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0730 AM, PA, Adams, New Oxford 1.3 SSE, , , 39.8463, -77.0437, RAIN_24, 2.65, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1154 AM, PA, Cambria, Johnstown Airport, , , 40.3167, -78.8333, RAIN_24, 1.04, Inch, ASOS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1221 PM, PA, Cumberland, MOUNT HOLLY SPRINGS, , , 40.1185, -77.193, RAIN_24, 1.3, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0800 AM, PA, Cumberland, Carlisle 7.2 SSW, , , 40.1125, -77.2774, RAIN_24, 2.03, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Dauphin, Linglestown 0.7 NNE, , , 40.3523, -76.7894, RAIN_24, 1.01, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Dauphin, Harrisburg, , , 40.3255, -76.8838, RAIN_24, 1.02, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Dauphin, Hummelstown 0.6 WNW, , , 40.2711, -76.7233, RAIN_24, 1.06, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Dauphin, HUMMELSTOWN, , , 40.307, -76.7038, RAIN_24, 1.09, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Dauphin, 1 WNW Skyline View, , , 40.3468, -76.7435, RAIN_24, 1.16, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1220 PM, PA, Dauphin, Harrisburg, , , 40.3315, -76.7282, RAIN_24, 1.4, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1225 PM, PA, Dauphin, Hummelstown, , , 40.3185, -76.6908, RAIN_24, 1.41, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1218 PM, PA, Dauphin, Manda Gap, , , 40.411, -76.711, RAIN_24, 1.45, Inch, RAWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1220 PM, PA, Dauphin, 2 NW Progress, , , 40.3131, -76.8636, RAIN_24, 1.47, Inch, AWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1225 PM, PA, Dauphin, 2 NW Progress, , , 40.3131, -76.8636, RAIN_24, 1.47, Inch, AWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0811 AM, PA, Dauphin, Middletown 0.9 N, , , 40.2132, -76.7316, RAIN_24, 1.96, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1225 PM, PA, Dauphin, Harrisburg Intl Airport, , , 40.2, -76.7667, RAIN_24, 2.2, Inch, ASOS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0800 AM, PA, Dauphin, Middletown 2.9 NW, , , 40.2349, -76.7617, RAIN_24, 2.31, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0100 AM, PA, Dauphin, 1 SW Rutherford Heights, , , 40.251229544310185, -76.78387923185517, RAIN_24, 2.44, Inch, Public, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0100 AM, PA, Dauphin, 1 NW Rutherford Heights, , , 40.28, -76.78, RAIN_24, 3.61, Inch, Public, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Lebanon, Lebanon 4.8 N, , , 40.4099, -76.4158, RAIN_24, 1.08, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1213 PM, PA, Lebanon, Indiantown Run, , , 40.459, -76.617, RAIN_24, 1.16, Inch, RAWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Lycoming, WILLIAMSPORT, , , 41.244, -77.034, RAIN_24, 1.59, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1200 PM, PA, Lycoming, Slate Run , , , 41.4686, -77.5681, RAIN_24, 2.3, Inch, COOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0930 AM, PA, Northumberland, 0.6 SW Sunbury, , , 40.8544, -76.7925, RAIN_24, 2.1, Inch, COOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1215 PM, PA, Northumberland, Hawi, , , 40.8972, -76.7948, RAIN_24, 2.31, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/21/2024,1045 PM, PA, Northumberland, 1 WSW Northumberland, , , 40.8936, -76.8062, RAIN, 4.46, Inch, Public, Storm total rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Perry, Duncannon, , , 40.4745, -76.9665, RAIN_24, 1.01, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1221 PM, PA, Potter, Germania, , , 41.6578, -77.6733, RAIN_24, 1.21, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/21/2024,0715 PM, PA, Potter, 4 NE Denton Hill State Park, , , 41.8051, -77.7755, RAIN, 2, Inch, Trained Spotter, Storm total rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0600 AM, PA, Schuylkill, Valley View 0.5 W, , , 40.6437, -76.5485, RAIN_24, 1, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1153 AM, PA, Snyder, Selinsgrove, , , 40.8167, -76.8667, RAIN_24, 1.52, Inch, ASOS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, Snyder, Selinsgrove 2.6 WNW, , , 40.8173, -76.9097, RAIN_24, 1.57, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, Snyder, Port Trevorton, , , 40.6763, -76.9013, RAIN_24, 1.8, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1226 PM, PA, Sullivan, LOPEZ, , , 41.457, -76.3387, RAIN_24, 1.33, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1226 PM, PA, Union, LEWISBURG, , , 40.9665, -76.9152, RAIN_24, 1.07, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1130 AM, PA, Union, 1.1 NW Milton, , , 41.0186, -76.8653, RAIN_24, 1.29, Inch, HADS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1229 PM, PA, Union, LEWISBURG, , , 40.962, -76.8912, RAIN_24, 1.66, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0600 AM, PA, Union, Lewisburg, , , 40.9486, -76.8783, RAIN_24, 2.52, Inch, COOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, York, York 3.4 NE, , , 39.995, -76.6807, RAIN_24, 1, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1215 PM, PA, York, York, , , 39.9895, -76.6525, RAIN_24, 1.19, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, York, Mount Wolf, , , 40.06, -76.7283, RAIN_24, 1.21, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1220 PM, PA, York, THOMASVILLE, , , 39.9132, -76.9233, RAIN_24, 1.22, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0528 AM, PA, York, Hanover 1.3 SSE, , , 39.7954, -76.9713, RAIN_24, 1.25, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, York, York, , , 40.027, -76.6242, RAIN_24, 1.35, Inch, CWOP, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0800 AM, PA, York, York Haven 2.3 WNW, , , 40.1184, -76.7581, RAIN_24, 1.37, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, York, Mount Wolf 1.0 SE, , , 40.0488, -76.6948, RAIN_24, 1.39, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1153 AM, PA, York, York Airport, , , 39.9167, -76.8833, RAIN_24, 1.44, Inch, ASOS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1220 PM, PA, York, 2 E Codorus, , , 39.8019, -76.775, RAIN_24, 1.44, Inch, AWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0600 AM, PA, York, East Berlin 3.4 ESE, , , 39.9132, -76.9233, RAIN_24, 1.46, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,1230 PM, PA, York, Valley Green, , , 40.1511, -76.7955, RAIN_24, 1.47, Inch, AWS, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0635 AM, PA, York, Valley Green, , , 40.1572, -76.793, RAIN_24, 1.62, Inch, Public, 24 hour rainfall,
:9/22/2024,0700 AM, PA, York, Valley Green 0.8 ENE, , , 40.1612, -76.7791, RAIN_24, 1.62, Inch, COCORAHS, 24 hour rainfall,

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$