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Latest PA Weather Story:


000
AWUS81 KCTP 181515
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-190515-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
1015 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

Dry and tranquil weather will continue in Pennsylvania through
midweek. Expect a mild trend into the second half of the week with
high temperatures on Friday forecast to be 10 to 20 degrees above
average for late December.

A late-week storm will bring more rain to the Keystone State
Thursday night through Friday. Heavy rain is possible across the
eastern part of the Commonwealth and could result in small stream
flooding.

Gusty winds behind the late-week storm will direct colder air
back into Pennsylvania for the weekend. Rain may mix with or
change to snow over the western half of Pennsylvania Friday night. Lake-
effect snow showers should bring a light accumulation to the
northwest snowbelt and higher elevations of the western
Alleghenies Friday night into Saturday.

The soaking to potentially heavy rain followed by gusty winds and
lake-effect snow may cause pre-Christmas travel delays. A weak
system may bring light snow to some parts of Pennsylvania on
Christmas Eve.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


208
FXUS61 KCTP 181525
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1025 AM EST Tue Dec 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...

Incoming high pressure will bring dry weather with bright sunny
days and seasonable temperatures through the middle of the
week. An approaching storm system will bring another soaking
rainfall Thursday and Friday. Colder conditions will arrive
late Saturday and continue through the early part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

The stratocu clouds are melting away smartly with most of the
forecast area already enjoying a bright late autumn day.
The partly to mostly sunny skies will continue today with
seasonable high temperatures ranging from near 30 north to
around 40 south.

Tonight will be mainly clear and calm as sprawling sfc high
tracks south of the region and off of the Mid Atlantic coast by
12z Wednesday. Mins will drop to the mid teens north and the
lower 20s south thanks to ideal radiational cooling conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Moderation expected on Wednesday in return southwest flow around
west side of large offshore ridge axis. High clouds may increase
late in the day over western and southwestern areas, but another
unusually bright December day is expected overall with plenty of
sun in most areas. Highs will range through the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
*Late-week rainstorm followed by colder air and lake effect
snow over the weekend that could result in limited pre-
Christmas travel disruptions.

Wednesday night will be fair and a bit milder than normal.
Things start going down hill on Thursday with the expected
approach of a new sprawling storm system. Pretty good signal
developing for a widespread soaking/potentially heavy rainfall
for central PA. The rain will begin to overspread the area by
the second half of Thursday and continue through Friday. The
GEFS shows a plume of tropical moisture surging up the eastern
seaboard ahead of the storm. While the deepest moisture is
progged to stay offshore, models bring a slug of heavy rain into
central PA as the low heads up the spine of the Appalachians
Thursday night into Friday. GEFS shows a high likelihood of at
least an inch of rain over almost all of the CWA.

The low will move up into eastern Canada over the weekend
followed by a colder and blustery northwest flow that will
support lake effect and terrain-enhanced snow showers mainly
over the usual western and northern higher elevation locations.
Expected snow accumulation look to be limited and confined
to the favored snowbelts and normal upslope areas. Improving
conditions are forecast by the end of the weekend.

Looking ahead to Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, there are
differences between the ECMWF which shows a potent
shortwave/Alberta Clipper type low that would be accompanied by
a fairly widespread light snow (white Christmas???), while the
GFS has a flatter fast upper flow with a much weaker shortwave.
This is a very low confidence part of the extended forecast and
needs to be monitored as the forecast evolves over the next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

JST seems to be the lone holdout with a ceiling below 3000` as
of mid morning, but even there we expect improvement to VFR by
around mid day. NW winds between 10-20kt today will diminish to
10kt of less by late afternoon into the overnight.

.Outlook...

Wed...VFR/No sig wx expected.

Thu...VFR early, then rain and sub-VFR conditions Thursday
night.

Fri...Rain ending Friday night as snow showers west. Gusty
winds Friday night.

Sat...Gusty winds, along with occasional restrictions in snow
showers, especially northern and western terminal sites.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DeVoir/La Corte
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
SHORT TERM...DeVoir/Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...DeVoir/La Corte
AVIATION...La Corte/Steinbugl


Latest Public Information Statement:


000
NOUS41 KCTP 180032
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-181229-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
729 PM EST Mon Dec 17 2018

...PEAK WIND GUSTS ACROSS CENTRAL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

Location Speed Time/Date Lat/Lon

...Pennsylvania...

...Bedford County...
Bedford Airport 37 MPH 0235 PM 12/17 40.10N/78.51W
Everett 30 MPH 0230 PM 12/17 40.01N/78.36W

...Blair County...
Altoona Airport 41 MPH 0125 PM 12/17 40.30N/78.32W
Blair Helibase 31 MPH 0116 PM 12/17 40.44N/78.42W

...Cambria County...
Johnstown Airport 39 MPH 0632 PM 12/17 40.32N/78.83W
2 N South Fork 32 MPH 0155 PM 12/17 40.40N/78.80W

...Centre County...
1 WSW Zion 35 MPH 0233 PM 12/17 40.91N/77.68W
2 NNE State College 34 MPH 0140 PM 12/17 40.83N/77.85W
1 ENE Millheim 32 MPH 0114 PM 12/17 40.90N/77.46W

...Clearfield County...
Clearfield Airport 31 MPH 0218 PM 12/17 41.05N/78.41W

...Columbia County...
Knoebels Grove 31 MPH 0136 PM 12/17 40.89N/76.52W

...Cumberland County...
New Cumberland 30 MPH 0230 PM 12/17 40.23N/76.88W

...Dauphin County...
Rockville 44 MPH 0555 PM 12/17 40.33N/76.90W
Harrisburg Int`l Airport 40 MPH 0242 PM 12/17 40.19N/76.76W
1 NNE Harrisburg 30 MPH 0218 PM 12/17 40.30N/76.87W
Manda Gap 30 MPH 0318 PM 12/17 40.41N/76.71W

...Elk County...
3 ESE Saint Marys 31 MPH 0215 PM 12/17 41.41N/78.50W
3 NW Saint Marys 30 MPH 0701 PM 12/17 41.47N/78.59W

...Franklin County...
Scotland 36 MPH 0135 PM 12/17 39.95N/77.59W
1 WNW Rouzerville 31 MPH 0543 PM 12/17 39.74N/77.55W

...Lancaster County...
Lancaster Airport 37 MPH 0307 PM 12/17 40.12N/76.30W
New Holland 30 MPH 0206 PM 12/17 40.09N/76.10W

...Lebanon County...
Muir Airfield Ft. Indiantown 38 MPH 0156 PM 12/17 40.43N/76.57W
1 ESE Palmyra 33 MPH 0310 PM 12/17 40.30N/76.58W
2 SW Kleinfeltersville 32 MPH 0240 PM 12/17 40.29N/76.30W
1 NW Cornwall 30 MPH 0115 PM 12/17 40.29N/76.42W

...Lycoming County...
Williamsport Airport 35 MPH 0232 PM 12/17 41.24N/76.92W

...McKean County...
Bradford Airport 38 MPH 0553 PM 12/17 41.80N/78.64W

...Perry County...
3 ESE Shermansdale 32 MPH 0346 PM 12/17 40.32N/77.12W

...Schuylkill County...
1 E Tower City 33 MPH 0526 PM 12/17 40.59N/76.53W

...Snyder County...
Penn Valley Airport 33 MPH 0352 PM 12/17 40.82N/76.86W

...Somerset County...
2 NW Wellersburg 36 MPH 0133 PM 12/17 39.76N/78.87W
Seven Springs 31 MPH 0141 PM 12/17 40.02N/79.28W

...Tioga County...
2 NNE Leonard Harrison State 35 MPH 0135 PM 12/17 41.73N/77.40W

...York County...
Capital City Airport 36 MPH 0230 PM 12/17 40.22N/76.85W
York Airport 30 MPH 0109 PM 12/17 39.92N/76.87W
&&

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

CJE