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Latest PA Weather Summary:

336
AWUS81 KCTP 230151
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-231600-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
951 PM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

High pressure over the Great Lakes area late this evening will
provide the Keystone state with another cool night. Low
temperatures will range from the lower to mid 50s across the
north, to the lower 60s across the south.

Dry weather is expected to prevail Wednesday into Thursday,
as the high pressure system slowly drifts to the east. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be in the 80s, but will warm well
into the 80s to lower 90s on Thursday. High temperatures on Friday
will range from the 80s across the north and west, to the mid 90s
across the southeast. Humidity levels will be on the rise, as one
heads into Thursday. Low temperatures Wednesday night and Thursday
night will be mainly in the 60s, with the warmest readings across
the southeast. Lows Friday night may fail to drop below 70 degrees
in many spots. The greatest chance of heat risk will be on Friday,
with the maximum heat index forecast to reach or exceed 100 degrees
in the south central and southeastern parts of Pennsylvania.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms be possible early Friday
across the northwest, and more area wide late Friday and over the
weekend. The highest chance of showers and storms over the last
weekend in July will be during the later afternoon and early
evening hours.

$$

Martin

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

109
FXUS61 KCTP 230518
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
118 AM EDT Wed Jul 23 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Still rain-free on Wed, but humidity will be on the rise.
* Hot and humid mid summer conditions ramp up through late week
with some heat risk for the SE, peaking Friday afternoon
* Rounds of thunderstorms are probable Friday through the last
weekend of July; remaining hot and unsettled into next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
Most of the cu have dissipated. Still just a little lingering
over the SW/SC mtns and Poconos. The on-shore flow is not
strong tonight, so we had low confidence in bumping the cloud
cover up (perhaps as high as the NAM does), but did nudge sky up
slightly to the SE of UNV. Did add a mention of valley fog to
the nrn valleys where it did form last night since RH values
should be higher tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warmer and more humid on Wednesday; add 5-10 degrees to max
temps (low to mid 80s) and 10+ degrees to dewpoints (60-65F) as
SSWly return flow transports warmer and more humid conditions
into CPA. Odds for rain in the NBM stay below 10% through
Wednesday night; however HREF (and other individual CAMs) try
to crank out some spotty light precip over the eastern portion
of the CWA mainly to the south/east of the I81 corridor. This
may be more of a cloud cover vs. actual rain shower signal.

Model and ensemble data show a building heat dome/594+dm 500mb
ridge expanding over the area by 12Z Thu. This will translate
into a return of warmer than average mid summer heat with max
temps fcst in the mid 80s to low 90s Thursday afternoon. Max
heat index values are forecast to reach the mid to upper 90s in
the central valleys Thu afternoon.

A stray airmass/terrain induced thundershower is possible
beneath the upper level ridge Thu afteroon, but odds favor a
continuation of dry wx across the vast majority of CPA due to
warm temps aloft/effective capping inversion. An elongated cold
front pressing southeastward from the Lower Great Lakes favors
an increase in precip probs over the far NW zones late Thu night
into early Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Heatrisk ramps to level 3 of 4 (major) across most of CPA
Friday with heat index values fcst to reach/exceed 100 degrees
across the central and eastern valleys particularly along and
southeast of the I99/US220 corridor. We continue to highlight
the elevated risk of heat impacts in the HWO and partner IDSS
briefings. A heat advisory may also be issued in the next 24-36
hours.

Higher/max POPs are on Friday and over the last weekend in
July. Latest model trends indicate the front could stall out
over CPA as several mid level/convectively enhanced shortwave
impulses translate eastward from the Ohio Valley. This suggests
a few rounds of storms will be possible in a ring of fire/MCS?
synoptic setup. The large scale pattern transitions into more of
a NWly/cyclonic flow as a mean upper trough becomes established
carving out from Hudson Bay southward across the northeastern
quadrant of the CONUS. This favors more unsettled wx into next
week with hot temps perhaps trending a bit cooler into month-
end.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Some low clouds are beginning to form over eastern PA, but
confidence in overall extent of these clouds tonight is low.
MVFR ceilings appear most likely at AOO and MDT based on model
RH profiles, but it would not be too surprising if MVFR ceilings
end up being more widespread than currently shown in the TAFs.
Ceilings will rise to VFR by mid-morning and VFR conditions are
then expected through the rest of the 06Z TAF period.

Outlook...

Thu...Mainly dry. Perhaps a shower or storm across the
west late.

Fri...Mainly dry and hot, with isolated to scattered TSRA and
brief restrictions possible each afternoon/evening.

Sat-Sun...Mainly dry, not as hot, with isolated to scattered
TSRA and brief restrictions possible each afternoon/evening.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco

Latest Public Information Statement:

346
NOUS41 KCTP 151316
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-160116-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
916 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER 3 INCHES...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Columbia County...
BERWICK 5.29 in 0907 AM 07/15 CWOP
Berwick 4.72 in 0905 AM 07/15 AWS

...Lancaster County...
MOUNT JOY 7.59 in 0907 AM 07/15 CWOP
MOUNT JOY 7.39 in 0910 AM 07/15 CWOP
Columbia 6.39 in 0901 AM 07/15 CWOP
Mountville 0.5 NW 6.00 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Marietta 2.5 N 5.74 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Columbia 4.48 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Manheim 3.82 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Lancaster 5.8 WNW 3.81 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Mount Joy 3.59 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Landisville 0.8 WSW 3.54 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Safe Harbor 3.14 in 0800 AM 07/15 COOP

...Lycoming County...
Jersey Shore 6.1 SSE 3.58 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS

&&

**METADATA**
:7/15/2025,0905 AM, PA, Columbia, Berwick, , , 41.0614, -76.2364, RAIN, 4.72, Inch, AWS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0907 AM, PA, Columbia, BERWICK, , , 41.0642, -76.2387, RAIN, 5.29, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0800 AM, PA, Lancaster, Safe Harbor, , , 39.9244, -76.3911, RAIN, 3.14, Inch, COOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Landisville 0.8 WSW, , , 40.0913, -76.4254, RAIN, 3.54, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Mount Joy, , , 40.1133, -76.4993, RAIN, 3.59, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Lancaster 5.8 WNW, , , 40.0634, -76.4072, RAIN, 3.81, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Manheim, , , 40.1673, -76.4545, RAIN, 3.82, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Columbia, , , 40.0472, -76.499, RAIN, 4.48, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Marietta 2.5 N, , , 40.0927, -76.5586, RAIN, 5.74, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Mountville 0.5 NW, , , 40.0462, -76.4408, RAIN, 6, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0901 AM, PA, Lancaster, Columbia, , , 40.0518, -76.4751, RAIN, 6.39, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0910 AM, PA, Lancaster, MOUNT JOY, , , 40.1177, -76.5377, RAIN, 7.39, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0907 AM, PA, Lancaster, MOUNT JOY, , , 40.1093, -76.4942, RAIN, 7.59, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lycoming, Jersey Shore 6.1 SSE, , , 41.1246, -77.2058, RAIN, 3.58, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
MRS