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Latest PA Weather Summary:


500
AWUS81 KCTP 120933
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-122345-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
533 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Warmer and more humid conditions are expected today across the
Commonwealth with high temperatures in the 80s statewide.

Locally heavy thundershowers will impact southeast Pennsylvania
today and especially tonight. The heavy rainfall may result in
isolated flooding particularly in urban corridors and other
places that can experience rapid runoff.

The hot and humid pattern resumes this weekend and ramps up early
next week with excessive heat most likely Monday and Tuesday
across portions of south central and southeastern Pennsylvania.

The heat should be suppressed to the south by the second half of
next week with more seasonable temperatures returning to the
Keystone State next Thursday into the weekend.

$$

MRS


Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


045
FXUS61 KCTP 121116
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
716 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
*Much needed/locally heavy rain confined to far southeast PA
from this afternoon into early Saturday
*Hot and humid pattern resumes this weekend and peaks early next
week with max heat index 100-105F in south central PA Mon & Tue

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Areas of fog (locally dense particularly in the northern tier)
will give way to a mostly sunny to partly cloudy start today
with daybreak temps in the 60-70F range.

Model consensus supports a warmer and more humid day in CPA with
highs in the 80s. While weak high pressure provides mainly dry
wx over the northwest 1/2 to 3/4 of the forecast area, the same
cannot be said for the far southeast zones/eastern portion of
the Lower Susquehanna Valley where a frontal zone lifting
northwest from the Delmarva will be a focus for locally heavy
thundershowers this afternoon through tonight. Rich tropical
moisture interacting with the boundary will support heavy rain
rates 1-2 in/hr and spot QPF amounts of 2+ inches based on the
HREF PMM/LPMM.

Abnormally dry/moderate drought conditions over the Lower Susq
suggests flooding potential is rather low, but some urban
corridors will be susceptible given multiple rounds of slower-
moving storms.

Can`t rule out a shower as far west as the Allegheny Front, but
max POPs are squarely focused on the southeastern part of the
CWA along/east of the boundary. There remains a high likelihood
of a sharp gradient of rainfall totals on the north and western
side of the front (west of I83/I81) due to the rapid dropoff in
deep layer pwats. Expect another night of above climo min temps
in the low 60s/70s or +5-10F above the historical average for
early/mid July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Hot and humid pattern resumes this weekend and ramps up into
early next week. Forecast max heat index values reach 95-100F
over most of south central PA during the afternoon Sat & Sun.

Thundershowers associated with the aforementioned frontal zone
should push to the east by Saturday afternoon. However, with an
upper level trough remaining over the Great Lakes combined with
the sweltering heat and humidity, isolated to scattered diurnal
convection remains possible through peak heating. There are also
some hints in the model QPFs that an upstream convective system
may make a run at reaching the Keystone State later Sunday/Sunday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*Excessive heat risk Monday and Tuesday

Little change in the upper air pattern is forecast in the long
term period, with weak relative troffing over the eastern US
and a building ridge over the western half of the CONUS. This
looks to support unsettled but continued warm weather over our
region, with maybe several chances for much needed rainfall.
Hope I didn`t just jinx it. Mon and Tue will see increasing
daily chances for mainly scattered convection, increasing from
northwest to southeast. Showers and storm look to become
widespread by Wednesday as the main front crosses the state.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At sunrise, widespread fog and low clouds were observed across
northern Pennsylvania, with patchy fog across the Laurel
Highlands and the central mtns.

Vsbys should improve quickly this morning, as the mid-July sun
eats away at any lingering fog. Clouds will slowly increase
from southeast to northwest through the day, as a frontal
boundary drifts northwestward from the Mid-Atlantic coast.
Expect scattered SHRA/TSRA to develop across the Lower Susq
Valley this morning and continue this aftn. Cigs could dip to
MVFR at LNS and MDT by sunset this evening.

Widespread low clouds/fog are expected to develop tonight
thanks to a moist southeasterly flow, with a 50-80% chc of IFR
conds developing across the area. SHRA/TSRA remain possible
across SE PA.

Outlook...

Sat...Scattered SHRA/TSRA continue across primarily SE PA.
Otherwise, becoming predominantly VFR.

Sun...A late-day SHRA/TSRA is possible across the west.
Otherwise, predominantly VFR.

Mon-Tue...Scattered SHRA/TSRA possible areawide.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The duration of warm nights is noteworthy -- Harrisburg has not
dropped below 70 degrees since July 3rd. Here are the longest
stretches with temperatures at or above 70 on record at Harrisburg.

# OF DAYS DATES YEAR
17 7/19-8/04 2020
13 8/16-8/28 2021
13 7/13-7/25 2010
12 7/18-7/29 2022
12 7/17-7/28 1999
12 7/20-7/31 1940
11 8/04-8/14 1977
10 8/10-8/19 2016
10 7/14-7/23 2013
10 8/01-8/10 1968
10 7/21-7/30 1898
9 12 times, most recently 7/3-7/11/2020
8 7/04-?? 2024
.................................................

Low temps are forecast to be >=70 for at least the next 5-6
days which should put this streak in the top 3 warmest runs on
record at Harrisburg.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir
AVIATION...Evanego
CLIMATE...Steinbugl/Banghoff


Latest Public Information Statement:


542
NOUS41 KCTP 020153 CCB
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-022315-

Public Information Statement...Corrected
National Weather Service State College PA
952 PM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...NWS Damage Survey for 06/29/24 Downburst Event...

.Overview...
NWS State College meteorologists have confirmed that a downburst
occurred late Saturday afternoon, June 29th, 2024 in northern
Dauphin County. Maximum wind speeds were estimated to be between 75
and 95 mph.

...Millersburg Downburst...

Peak Wind /Estimated/: 75-95 mph
Path Length /statute/: 3 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 1.2 miles
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: June 29, 2024
Start Time: 5:38PM EDT
Start Location: Millersburg /Dauphin County/ PA
Start Lat/Lon: 40.54390 / -76.95261

End Date: June 29, 2024
End Time: 5:42PM EDT
End Location: Millersburg /Dauphin County/ PA
End Lat/Lon: 40.54562 / -76.90943

Survey Summary:
A line of severe thunderstorms began to produce wind damage in the
town of Millersburg at the Millersburg Area High School, located
just off North Street. A press box structure located above and just
behind a set of metal bleachers adjacent to the school`s athletic
field was blown off its supporting metal beams/foundation and
largely destroyed. A small ticket office on the other side of the
field was blown off its unsecured cement foundation pad and was
heavily damaged when it impacted a long length of bleachers next to
the field.

The line then continued eastward and produced sporadic wind
damage within several residential areas across Millersburg along
and East of Route 25. The damage consisted mostly of downed large
branches, as well as a few snapped and/or uprooted softwood and
hardwood trees.

The last observed area of storm damage in Millersburg was near
Landfill Road, where a few more more trees were snapped, or had
significant limb damage. The storm appeared to weaken farther to
the east, as no more damage points were observed.

We would like to thank the Dauphin County Emergency Management
Agency, Upper Paxton Township Fire/EOC officials, the local area
Skywarn Spotter and HAM Operator networks for their assistance.
We`d also like to thank members of the public who reported storm
related impacts.

&&

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$

Evans/Jurewicz