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Latest PA Weather Summary:


777
AWUS81 KCTP 100147
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-101600-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
947 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

Rain will continue to move from west to east across central
Pennsylvania through tonight. Low temperatures tonight will range
from the 30s across the Alleghenies, to the 40s elsewhere. Far
southeast Pennsylvania will be a bit milder, with lows near 50
degrees.

Following the wet conditions through tonight, drier weather will
take shape through Thursday, outside of scattered showers across
northern PA on Tuesday. High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday
will be mainly in the 50s, while portions of the Susquehanna
Valley warm into the low 60s. Cool temperatures will continue
through at least the middle of the week.

$$


Latest Forecaster's Discussion:


000
FXUS61 KCTP 100302
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1102 PM EDT Sun May 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A soaking rain, along with some higher elevation wet snow over
the northern tier, will continue into this evening, as a storm
system tracks near the Mason Dixon line. Precipitation will
taper off and end later tonight.

The early part of the work week will continue to feature below
normal temperatures for mid May. Monday looks dry, but we could
see a few showers on Tuesday, especially north of Interstate 80.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Radar still showing the steadiest rain falling across northern
Pa late this evening in region of strong fgen forcing north of
of surface low. A stripe of 1.25-1.75" liquid equivalent
precipitation is still foreseen near and north of I-80, but no
hydro impacts are expected, due to pretty dry antecedent
conditions.

Across the Lower Susq Valley, where very little if any rain has
fallen, still expect a good chance for showers late this evening,
as nose of low level jet lifts across the area.

Expect rain to taper off from west to east between 03Z-06Z, as
surface low tracks along the Mason Dixon Line, then exits southeast
Pa by around 07Z. Residual low level moisture and upsloping flow
could yield some lingering drizzle over the higher terrain of
the Alleghenies until almost dawn.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Fair and cool conditions are expected Monday, as surface ridge
and low-pwat air mass build into the region. Broken stratocu
will probably linger for a time in the morning, particularly
over the northern tier and close to the Allegheny Front.
However, we should see increasing sunshine and a gusty breeze in
the afternoon, especially for the downslope areas of the
Susquehanna Valley. Dry air aloft and a weak inversion support
undercutting NBM dewpoints by several degrees.

All areas should easily mix to at least 850mb, where ensemble
mean temps of around 2C translate to expected highs from the mid
50s over the northwest mountains, to the mid 60s over the Lower
Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
*Cool pattern for early May continues through midweek
*Primary frost/freeze risk Thursday morning
*Moderating temperatures by next weekend

Reinforcing shortwave drives another surge of chilly air into
the region on Tuesday. We trended cooler on MaxT and increased
POPs with scattered showers expected in the afternoon. Cold
pocket aloft (-20 to -25C @500mb) could be supportive of small
hail similar to Saturday afternoon 5/8. Still breezy and much
colder than climo with MaxT departures of -10 to -20F below
average.

High confidence of fair and cool weather on Wednesday. High
pressure and low pwat air mass move into CPA Wednesday night,
setting up what looks like the coldest temps Thursday morning.
All zones will be active in the growing season with the
potential for a large area of frosty conditions.

Latest ensemble means and GFS runs have been trending toward the
theme of recent ECMWF/CMC runs which favor a suppressed southern
tier storm track and greater influence of high pressure.
Therefore, we continued to trend POPs lower on Thursday with dry
wx now the prevailing forecast.

A couple of shortwaves will return low chance showers to the
forecast by the end of the week and into the weekend. However,
the key takeaway by this time will be (after a rather cool start
to May) warmer temps on the horizon trending toward seasonal
averages (60s/70s).

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain will continue over the next 3 to 6 hours across the region,
then diminish overnight from west to east. Expect IFR conditions
at most terminals overnight except for MDT and LNS where a
period of MVFR is expected. As drier air moves in from the west
we should see improving conditions Monday morning with MVFR to
eventual VFR conditions Monday but with a gusty northwest wind.


Outlook...

Mon...Poor conditions early. Improving west to east in the
late morning/afternoon with gusty northwest winds.

Tue...Mainly dry, but still breezy.

Wed...Dry weather expected with VFR conditions.

Thu...Increasing clouds.

Fri...A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Jurewicz
NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Travis/Gutierrez

Latest Public Information Statement:


000
NOUS41 KCTP 062102
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-071200-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
502 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021

...NWS Damage Survey for Elk County Tornado Event on May 4th...

.Overview:
The National Weather Service confirms that a tornado occurred
in Elk County at approximately 2:51 pm on May 4, 2021.

.Weedville Tornado...

Rating: EF1
Estimated Peak Wind: 90 mph
Path Length /statute/: 0.60 miles
Path Width /maximum/: 125 yards
Fatalities: 0
Injuries: 0

Start Date: 05/04/2021
Start Time: 02:51 PM EDT
Start Location: 3 NW Force / Elk County / PA
Start Lat/Lon: 41.3053 / -78.5175

End Date: 05/04/2021
End Time: 02:52 PM EDT
End Location: 3 NNW Force / Elk County / PA
End Lat/Lon: 41.3067 / -78.5061

Survey Summary:
The National Weather Service confirms that a tornado occurred in
Elk County at approximately 2:51 pm on May 4, 2021. Photo
evidence shows tree damage concentrated along a narrow area along
Old Byrnedale Rd and Route 255 about 2.5 miles NNW of Weedville,
PA. Several trees were uprooted or snapped. This is likely near
the end of the damage path, based on weakening low level rotation
and updraft strength observed by radar. Video evidence from
Weedville shows a rapidly rotating funnel approximately 0.5 miles
WSW of Route 255. A ridge line obstructed the view of the ground
beneath the funnel. However, a radar-indicated tornado debris
signature supports the idea that the tornado was likely on the
ground and lofting debris at the time. The path start and end
points, path width, and tornado strength are preliminary
estimates and will be adjusted as necessary if new evidence of
damage is found.


&&

EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the
following categories:

EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph
EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph
EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph
EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph
EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph
EF5...Violent...>200 mph

NOTE:
The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to
change pending final review of the event and publication in NWS
Storm Data.

$$