All Text Forecasts

Forecaster's
Discussion:

County-by-County
Forecast:

Daily Co-operative Station
Observation Summary:

Public Information
Statement:

All NWS State College Text Statements/Forecasts:

OR -- CLICK ON THE IMAGE BELOW TO USE THE NWS MOBILE WEB APP

Latest PA Weather Summary:

275
AWUS81 KCTP 202051
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-211100-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
451 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Clouds will continue to increase the remainder of afternoon. Low
temps for tonight will range from the mid 50s across the southwest
to the mid 40s in the north east. Rain will begin over southwest
PA Tuesday evening, then spread from southwest to northeast
overnight and continue into Wednesday and Thursday. Many spots in
the state will receive over an inch of rain during this time with
some getting two to three inches.

There is the potential for some isolated flash flooding to occur
in areas where significant rainfall has already been observed over
the past week.

The clouds and rain will make for very chilly days on Wednesday
and Thursday, with temperatures not getting out of the 50s each
day across most of the state. This is some 10 to 15 degrees below
seasonal normal for late May.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

119
FXUS61 KCTP 210311
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1111 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Cool and wet stretch of weather through late week with periods
of soaking rain and potential flooding through Thursday
* The precipitation pattern turns more showery Friday into
Memorial Day weekend
* Daytime temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below the
historical average for late May through Saturday with no signs
of a major warmup on the horizon

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Rain is already beginning to overspread the western portions of
Pennsylvania as of 00Z. Rainfall will remain relatively light
given weak vertical forcing along a surface trough ahead of the
main low, which is moving across central Illinois. The heavier
rain is still expected to arrive in the southwest during the
early morning hours just before sunrise as the warm front ushers
in a plume of moisture and southeasterly flow.

Previous Discussion...
Clouds will continue to increase from the Ohio Valley through
the evening. Main focus will shift to a widespread soaking to
potentially flooding rain event starting early Wednesday
morning.

Hires model data indicates a signal locally heavy rain (1-1.5")
focused into the eastern slopes of the Laurel Highlands between
06-12Z Wed. Moist upslope flow and low level moisture flux to
do not look as impressive as the recent flooding event, but
certainly enough to cause runoff problems given highly sensitive
soil and very saturated terrain. We were keen to hoist a flood
watch in collaboration with LWX and PBZ for Somerset and Bedford
Counties starting 09Z/5AM Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Soaking rain overspreads central PA from southwest to northeast
Wednesday morning. Timing of the rain and cloud cover will make
for a very cool/raw/soggy day by late May standards and a gusty
southeast wind will definitely add to the chill factor. Daytime
max temps in the 50s are 10 to 20 degrees below the historical
average.

Hires model signal for some convectively enhanced rain is
focused over western and southwestern PA tomorrow afternoon with
point amounts around 2" possible based on the HREF 3hr PMM. The
eastern 3/4 of central PA will be very stable in classic CAD
signature sfc pattern, so we are not expecting any heavy rain
over this area on Wed. The Flood watch continues until 09Z
Thu/5AM and captures any additional heavy rain that may fall
across the Laurel Highlands.

Broad cyclonic flow and cool air aloft will continue frequent
rain showers through Thursday. There may be some locally
enhanced rainfall on Thu where FGEN banding sets up. It will be
a very cool and wet stretch through the short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Northwesterly flow in the wake of the departing low pressure
system will allow for cooler than average temperatures to take
hold for the end of the week and throughout the Memorial Day
weekend. A secondary area of surface low pressure is progged by
model guidance to form off the Mid-Atlantic Coast late
Thursday/early Friday will quickly pull northeast of the area,
allowing for conditions to begin to dry out late Friday night.
Any lingering rainfall on Friday is expected to generally light
and taper off southwest-to-northeast.

Enhanced northwesterly flow Saturday and Sunday will bring a
return to shower chances with upslope and lake-enhanced showers;
however, as low-level flow begins to decrease later in the
evening, gradually will see shower activity shut off with
lingering precipitation generally expected to be light. Guidance
has trended drier on Sunday, with chances for any shower
activity limited to the evening hours. The next batch of
precipitation is expected to begin drifting north into central
Pennsylvania on Monday and into Tuesday, promoting rain chances
once again for the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Current radar (as of 8:00pm EDT) outlines first showers entering
SW PA with ceilings starting to trend downwards. Radar returns
at this point might continue to be elevated due to low-level dry
air but generally expect rain to begin in the 01-03Z timeframe
at JST/AOO. Ceilings at onset are expected to remain VFR through
04Z before deteriorating conditions across southwest PA
overspread northeast into Wednesday morning. Widespread light
to moderate rain showers will bring reduced cigs and visibility
to all airfields during the day tomorrow.

Recent guidance does outline widespread IFR conditions with
high confidence after 12Z Wednesday and throughout the end of
the TAF period. LIFR conditions cannot be ruled out at
BFD/JST/AOO/UNV; however, recent guidance has trended away from
these conditions prevailing, so have lower confidence this cycle
and have limited these mentions to the AFD. Thunderstorm
potential at JST/AOO will be possible during the
afternoon/evening; however, confidence also remains too low at
this time for mentions in the 00Z TAF cycle.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...Ocnl SHRA/TSRA.

Sat & Sun...Still a chance of a shower.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Flood watch issued for Somerset and Bedford Counties from
5AM-5AM Wed-Thu.

7 fcst points are projected to exceed action/caution stage over
the next couple of days.

Confluence is the most likely to reach/exceed minor flood stage,
but is currently forecast to crest a foot or so below at this
time. Juniata basin points are probably the next most vulnerable
followed by the West Branch Susq and then middle to lower
Susquehanna Basin tribs.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 5 AM EDT Wednesday through late Wednesday
night for PAZ033-034.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Bowen
LONG TERM...NPB
AVIATION...Banghoff/NPB
HYDROLOGY...Dangelo/Steinbugl

Latest Public Information Statement:

450
NOUS41 KCTP 201307
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-210107-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
907 AM EDT Tue May 20 2025

...MINIMUM TEMPERATURE REPORTS FOR MAY 20TH...

Location Temp Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Cameron County...
Doll Hill 36 F 0450 AM 05/20 RAWS

...Centre County...
South Philipsburg 33 F 0652 AM 05/20 CWOP
Spring Mills 34 F 0600 AM 05/20 CWOP
PORT MATILDA 34 F 0606 AM 05/20 CWOP
2 SW State College 35 F 0620 AM 05/20 CWOP
Bald Eagle State Park 35 F 0625 AM 05/20 MESOWEST
Pennsylvania Furnace 36 F 0613 AM 05/20 CWOP
Zion 36 F 0558 AM 05/20 CWOP
Rock Springs 36 F 0630 AM 05/20 MESOWEST

...Clearfield County...
2 ENE Clearfield 35 F 0640 AM 05/20 PADOT
1 SSE S.b. Elliot State Park 35 F 0640 AM 05/20 PADOT
Clearfield Airport 35 F 0754 AM 05/20 ASOS
ROCKTON 36 F 0659 AM 05/20 CWOP
Grampian 36 F 0600 AM 05/20 COOP
Kennedy Preserve 36 F 0508 AM 05/20 RAWS

...Clinton County...
3 NE Mccall Dam State Park 36 F 0405 AM 05/20 PADOT

...Elk County...
Kersey 30 F 0633 AM 05/20 CWOP
Saint Marys 33 F 0615 AM 05/20 CWOP
Ridgway 33 F 0625 AM 05/20 AWS
Saint Marys 34 F 0500 AM 05/20 CWOP
St Marys 36 F 0455 AM 05/20 AWOS

...Huntingdon County...
Petersburg 36 F 0645 AM 05/20 DAVIS

...McKean County...
Smethport 32 F 0520 AM 05/20 CWOP
Smethport 32 F 0430 AM 05/20 CWOP
Kinzua Bridge State Park 33 F 0435 AM 05/20 MESOWEST
2 WSW Mount Jewett 35 F 0505 AM 05/20 PADOT
Kane 36 F 0610 AM 05/20 AWS

...Potter County...
3 W Denton Hill State Park 35 F 0710 AM 05/20 PADOT
Cherry Springs State Park 35 F 0415 AM 05/20 MESOWEST
Ulysses 36 F 0355 AM 05/20 DAVIS
Germania 36 F 0752 AM 05/20 CWOP

...Somerset County...
CENTRAL CITY 36 F 0629 AM 05/20 CWOP

...Sullivan County...
3 NE Laporte 33 F 0425 AM 05/20 PADOT
LOPEZ 33 F 0323 AM 05/20 CWOP
DUSHORE 35 F 0426 AM 05/20 CWOP
Laporte 36 F 0558 AM 05/20 COOP
Sullivan County School Distr 36 F 0444 AM 05/20 MESOWEST
3.4 E Muncy Valley 36 F 0500 AM 05/20 HADS

...Tioga County...
Mansfield 34 F 0700 AM 05/20 CWOP
Westfield 35 F 0745 AM 05/20 CWOP
Liberty 35 F 0745 AM 05/20 CWOP
Tioga 2 35 F 0315 AM 05/20 MESOWEST
5 SW Blossburg 36 F 0740 AM 05/20 PADOT
Wellsboro 36 F 0245 AM 05/20 CWOP

...Warren County...
Grand Valley 31 F 0700 AM 05/20 CWOP
Kinzua 35 F 0522 AM 05/20 RAWS
Warren 35 F 0545 AM 05/20 MESOWEST
Tidioute 36 F 0700 AM 05/20 AWS

&&

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
MRS