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Latest PA Weather Story:

000
AWUS81 KCTP 201441
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-210445-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
1041 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

A nearly stationary frontal boundary will continue to bring
periods of light to moderate rain to western and central portions
of the Commonwealth today. Rain will be steadiest early and
become more scattered as the afternoon progresses. Across the
east, it will stay dry with cloudy skies this morning giving way
to some breaks of sunshine in the afternoon. Highs will range from
the mid 50s in the rainy northwest to the mid 70s amidst the
peeks of sunshine in the southeast.

Temperatures will trend higher and become unseasonably mild
into Wednesday and Thursday thanks to southerly winds and partly
sunny skies. Temperatures will be in the 70s both Wednesday and
Thursday. Although a few rain showers are again possible in the
northwest on Wednesday, Thursday will be dry across the
Commonwealth.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

620
FXUS61 KCTP 201531
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1131 AM EDT Tue Oct 20 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Periods of rain will plague the northwest Alleghenies through
midweek. Expect a mild stretch of above average temperatures to
last into the weekend followed by a brief, seasonable cool down
on Sunday. Dry weather is forecast Thursday and Friday with an
increasing chance of rain showers over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar loop shows another batch of light rain tracking northeast
along and north of quasi-stationary frontal boundary located
roughly just south of a line from KAFJ to KELM. Max POPs for the
rest of today remain centered across the NW/NC Alleghenies. 16Z
temps already pushing 70F in the far lower Susq. Valley while
readings are holding steady in the low-mid 50s north of the
front across the northwest 1/3 of the CWA. MaxT expected to
reach the low-mid 70s across the southeast zones which is about
+15F above normal.

The frontal boundary should hang up near or just north of I-80
and pivot back to the north as a warm front tonight. Spotty
light rain should be confined to the northern tier this evening
into early tonight. Model guidance shows an uptick in QPF
across Lake Erie in the 06-12Z window with max POPs shifted into
the far NW mtns. Much of the CWA should stay dry late tonight
into early Wed. morning - however expect areas of fog and patchy
drizzle to develop across the Susquehanna Valley. MinT
continues to make a series of higher-lows with very mild
overnight temps in the 50-60F range (+15-20F above average for
mid/late October).

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday may start damp in the east and far north, but clouds
should break up and leave a pt sunny day for the srn half of the
CWA. The north may go back downhill after some initial clearing
as a low pressure center passes to our north and drags yet
another weak, low-moisture front in from the NW. There could be
enough instability develop to make a rumble or two of thunder
across the nrn tier depending on just how much sun/warmth they
get. Expect 70s for maxes almost everywhere, but it may stay a
little cooler in the nrn mtns and Poconos where the most clouds
will be found.

The last gasp of the dying cold front will be over the Allegheny
Front and middle Susq Valley Wed night. Will paint only slight
chc/isold PoPs there. Mins will be a tiny bit cooler than Tues
night over the NW on the poleward side of the front (u40s) and
a little milder in the SE (u50s) thanks to clouds and a warmer
start to the night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Medium range guidance continues to forecast essentially the
same pattern of upper-level troughing over the Northern Plains
and an anomalous upper-level ridge just off of the East Coast
into early next week. Dying cold fronts pushing in form the Grt
Lks will bring a chance of showers Wednesday PM and again late
Friday or early Saturday. Kept the best chance of showers
focused across the northwestern counties, closest to large-scale
forcing associated with upstream trough.

Deep southerly flow and a plume of above average PWATs support
above normal nighttime temps. Ensemble mean 850 temps continue
to trend well above normal Wed-Friday, with widespread highs in
the 70s likely. Cooler conditions appear likely behind cold
front next weekend. The latest NAEFS and ECENS indicate a cold
front passage next Tuesday, likely preceded by a return of very
warm conditions Monday and accompanied by a round of showers
either Monday night or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 11z, LIFR conditions continued at BFD with both low
stratus and vis reductions in -RA and BR. Elsewhere, generally
VFR conditions were noted in the central mountains, and IFR/MVFR
in the Susq Valley with low clouds within the marine layer.
The Susq valley will likely improve to VFR by around noon.
However, the cold front will push through BFD, keeping them in
IFR or LIFR conditions through much of the day and into Tue
night.

The marine layer will likely bring a return to IFR cigs and vsby
in the Susq valley after 06z Wed.

Expecting more in the way of dry weather and VFR conditions for
Wednesday into Thursday if not longer, as much warmer air at the
surface and aloft works into the region.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night...Low cigs psbl Tue night ern 1/2.

Wed...AM low cigs psbl ern 1/2. MVFR with showers likely NW.

Thu-Fri...AM low cigs psbl ern 1/2.

Sat...Passing showers likely with fropa.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Colbert

Latest Public Information Statement:

891
NOUS41 KCTP 181452
PNSCTP
PAZ036-057-059-063-181900-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1052 AM EDT Sun Oct 18 2020

...PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...

After another chilly night, the growing season has ended for another
swath of counties in central Pennsylvania. Those counties include:
Franklin, Cumberland, Dauphin and Lebanon counties.

Now that the growing season has ended for these counties, we will not
be issuing frost-freeze products for them again until the next growing
season begins in the Spring of 2021.

$$