Latest PA Weather Summary:
000 AWUS81 KCTP 191002 RWSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-200015-
Regional Weather Summary National Weather Service State College PA 602 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
Following one of the warmest starts to March on record, a brisk and chilly winter-like pattern will bring rounds of snow showers for the first few days of Spring. Spring officially begins today at 11:06 p.m.
Scattered snow showers and flurries this morning will dwindle before giving way to light snow developing later today across the northern tier of the Commonwealth. High temperatures this afternoon in the mid 30s to mid 40s will be 5 to 10 degrees warmer than yesterday across the western half of the Keystone State, but still 5 to 10 degrees below average for mid to late March.
Another round of snow showers on Wednesday will be accompanied by gusty winds and possibly a few snow squalls. Snow showers and breezy conditions will diminish through Thursday.
Temperatures should bottom Thursday into Thursday night and trend seasonably milder over the weekend and into next week. A period of rain (or wet snow at higher elevations) is likely Friday night into Saturday morning.
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MRS
Latest Forecaster's Discussion:
000 FXUS61 KCTP 191023 AFDCTP
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 623 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
.SYNOPSIS... A weather season mismatch across central PA this week with a brisk and chilly winter-like pattern bringing rounds of snow showers for the first few days of Spring. Temperatures should bottom Thursday night and trend seasonably warmer over the weekend and into next week. A period of rain (or wet snow at higher elevations) is likely Friday night into Saturday morning.
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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Expect ongoing CAA/lake effect snow showers and flurries to continue to fade/dwindle this morning as the llvl wind trajectory backs or shifts from the NW to SW in advance of a clipper low pivoting eastward just north of Lake Superior. Most of the higher terrain in the western and northern Alleghenies should wake up to a fresh coating of snow.
As the lake effect connection tapers off, low-mid lvl warm advection and isentropic lift should generate some light snow developing across the northern tier based on the latest hires ensemble guidance. WPC/NBM qpf amounts favor <1 inch along and to the north of US-6.
The brief shift in the llvl wind trajectory to a WAA regime will help temperatures trend higher by as much as 10 degrees day/day over the Laurel Highlands. Despite the neutral to positive 24hr maxTchange, fcst highs ranging from the mid 30s in the northern tier to mid 40s in the lower Susquehanna Valley are still 5 to 10 degree below daily climo.
Snow showers are most likely to linger over the western Alleghenies tonight into AM Wed. as a progressively colder westerly flow ramps up into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover and active breeze will hold temps in the 30s tonight across the majority of the area or about +5F above climo give or take.
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.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... -A winter-like pattern for the first full day of Spring 2024-
The passage of the cold front trailing the aforementioned clipper low early Wednesday should be accompanied by scattered rain/snow showers. A few of the showers could survive into the Susq Valley, due to strong forcing ahead of the upper level shortwave. Steep lower tropospheric lapse rates indicate the potential of some heavier snow squalls across the north central mtns and we added chance SW+ to the wx grids. The snow squall parameter fcst from CIPS deterministic models is also generally supportive of a squall risk Wednesday with timing and marginal air/road temps suggesting sharp visby reductions as the primary impact. We continue to highlight the snsq threat in the HWO.
Deep cold advection and passage of an isallobaric/pressure rise couplet signal the strongest northwest wind gusts Wednesday afternoon/evening. Peak bufkit mtum transfer and ensemble data indicate peak gusts 35-45 mph range or just shy of advisory criteria.
The cold NW flow continues into Thursday with snow showers and flurries downwind of Lake Erie and over the Alleghenies gradually diminishing by Thursday night as high pressure builds into the area. Temps likely bottom on Thursday with daytime highs 10 to 20F below average and what could be the coldest night until next winter (teens and 20s).
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.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Medium range guidance suggests a period of light precipitation is likely Friday PM associated with warm advection ahead of a weak northern stream shortwave. Thermal profiles point to mainly rain, but the N Mtns could be cold enough for a light snow accumulation. Most guidance keeps a more significant southern stream shortwave well south of the area. However, there remains a small chance of phasing of two branches of the jet, resulting a heavier rainfall across Eastern PA Friday night into Sat.
Fair and cool weather looks likely the second half of next weekend, as upper troughing exits the east coast and high pressure builds in from the Grt Lks. Rising heights noted in the model guidance early next week, but a cold air damming signature with strong high pressure over the Canadian Maritimes suggests the warmup will be tempered.
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.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Isolated snow showers continue to slide across the norther and western sites with wind gusts out of the NW. West- northwest winds will be moderately gusty today and tonight for all TAF sites. The occasional snow shower will continue to impact the western sites (Mainly BFD and JST) throughout the day and into the afternoon.
A dual or multi-layered cloud shield (mainly VFR) will spread across the region Tuesday as the low level flow backs a bit more to the west-southwest, helping to confine most of the snow showers across the far NW zones, with generally mostly cloudy skies and breezy and dry conditions elsewhere.
VFR is expected to be predominiate throughout tonight as well anywhere outside of the NW. The wind gusts could decrease for a couple hours tonight, but are expected to pick up again tomorrow.
Outlook...
Tuesday-Saturday...Periodic snow showers and reductions, primarily across the higher terrain of northern and western PA. This will be enhanced by reinforcing shots of unseasonably cold air and gusty W/NW winds. West to northwest wind gusts could peak in the 35 to 40 mph range on Wednesday.
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.CLIMATE... Astronomical Spring (vernal equinox) begins today at 11:06 PM EDT.
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.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None.
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SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl NEAR TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Steinbugl LONG TERM...Fitzgerald AVIATION...Bowen CLIMATE...Steinbugl
Latest Public Information Statement:
000 NOUS41 KCTP 191032 PNSCTP PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046- 049>053-056>059-063>066-200400-
Public Information Statement National Weather Service State College PA 632 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024
...PENNSYLVANIA FLOOD AWARENESS WEEK 2024...
The National Weather Service has declared March 18th through March 22nd to be Flood Awareness Week in Pennsylvania.
Today`s topic: Turn Around Don`t Drown.
Turn Around Don`t Drown is a NOAA National Weather Service campaign to warn people of the hazards of walking through or driving a vehicle through flood waters.
Why is Turn Around Don`t Drown so important?
Each year, more deaths occur due to flooding than from any other severe weather hazard. The main reason is that people underestimate the force and power of water. More than half of all flood related deaths result from vehicles being swept downstream. Many of these deaths are preventable.
What can you do to avoid getting caught is this situation?
Follow these safety rules: Monitor the NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite news source for vital weather information.
If flooding occurs, get to higher ground. Get out of areas subject to flooding, such as dips, low spots, canyons, and washes.
Avoid areas already flooded...especially if the water is flowing fast. Do not attempt to cross flowing streams.
Road beds may be washed out under flood waters. Never drive through flooded roadways.
Turn Around Don`t Drown.
Do not camp or park your vehicle along streams and washes, particularly during threatening conditions.
Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize flood dangers.
Topics for the rest of flood awareness week: Wednesday: Flood Information. Thursday: Flooding Causes and Severity. Friday: Flood alerts.
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