.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ceilings gradually lower from south to north through the night,
though most sites should remain VFR through at least 06Z. After
that point, rain will begin to move in from the southwest ahead
of the remnants of Isaias. The rain has already reached JST and
AOO and will overspread the rest of Central PA through early 
morning. Ceilings will initially fall to MVFR as rain begins, 
but quick deterioration to IFR is expected for all TAF sites. 

IFR conditions should persist through the rest of the TAF period
with a steady, soaking rainfall continuing for much of the day.
As the rain tapers off during the evening, model soundings 
suggest that we will see enough instability develop for some 
lightning to occur near MDT and LNS. A PROB30 for TSRA has been
added for MDT and LNS. Confidence is increasing on a few of
these storms late tonight having enough instability to produce
lightning. 

Strong winds aloft will create some concern for LLWS tonight,
particularly at BFD and JST. Periods of wind shear are possible
farther to the east as well, but confidence is a little lower
than it is for the western TAF sites. The potential for these
winds to mix down to the surface is uncertain, with model 
soundings suggesting that relatively stable conditions should 
limit gusts to around 25 knots for much of the day on Sunday.
The best chance for gusts stronger than that (potentially up to
35 knots) will be late tonight into early Monday morning at 
JST.

Outlook...

Mon...Partial clearing.

Tue...VFR favored, though a FROPA may bring restrictions in
-SHRA. AM fog possible.

Wed...AM ceiling restrictions possible from post-frontal 
stratocu, with VFR otherwise favored. Slight chance of -SHRA due
to lingering moisture behind front.

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