Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low-to-mid level clouds continue streaming into western 
Pennsylvania this morning and will continue to filter into the 
region this morning. For the 12Z TAF package, recent model 
guidance continues to point towards gradual deterioration across
much of central Pennsylvnaia's airspace after 15Z Friday as a 
quick-moving system brings rainfall and lower ceilings to the 
region throughout much of the day. Initial restrictions likely 
remain MVFR based on the bulk of model guidance at all 
airfields; however, southeastern airfields (MDT/LNS) likely 
experience very short durations (if any) of MVFR restrictions 
due to low-level dry air in place. Given that recent HREF 
probabilities and GLAMP model guidance aren't the most keen on 
MVFR mentions at MDT/LNS, have continued to leave these out for 
the 12Z TAF package with moderate (~50-60%) confidence.

Northwesterly flow with ample low-level moisture as rainfall 
tapers off this evening will bring in the potential for IFR-to- 
LIFR conditions at BFD/JST after 00Z Saturday based on most 
recent RAP model soundings, thus have continued to be slightly 
more aggressive with lower ceilings in the 12Z TAF package with 
moderate confidence on restriction timing. Further east, chances
for IFR conditions remain too low for mentions in the TAFs; 
however, will need to continue to monitor UNV/IPT closest for 
precipitation chances, as if rainfall does track over these 
areas (especially later in the afternoon and/or evening), 
chances for low ceiling development will increase considerably, 
especially between 00Z-12Z Saturday. Model guidance does 
indicate some clearing towards the end of the 12Z TAF package at
all airfields; however, have kept main improvements at all 
airfields outside of BFD/JST where model guidance tends to clear
out low-level clouds too quickly in this environmental set-up.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly VFR, restrictions possible in SCT PM -SHRA. 

Sun...SHRA moves in late; otherwise, VFR expected.

Mon...SHRA potential increases during PM hours, some TSRA 
possible across N/W PA. Restrictions possible.

Tue...SHRA becomes more widespread, TSRA chances expand across 
much of central PA. Restrictions possible.

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