Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect snow bands continue across mainly NW PA (BFD) this
morning with some potential in these bands at JST/AOO/UNV 
through 12Z Wednesday. Low (~30%) chance of long-duration
restrictions at AOO/UNV outside of snow bands so have trended
towards recent GLAMP guidance given current radar trends that
also are in fair agreement with HREF model guidance. BFD is 
likely to experience longer durations of IFR conditions 
throughout much of the 06Z TAF package as winds become more 
favorable for a longer duration of lake effect snow showers, 
especially after ~21Z Wednesday. Most likely window of any MVFR 
conditions at BFD will prevail in the 12-18Z Wednesday timeframe
with low (~30%) confidence at this juncture. Further
southeast at MDT/LNS, high (~80-90%) confidence in VFR
conditions prevailing through the 06Z TAF package.

The main thing of note in the 06Z TAF package remains the
potential for snow squalls across the northwestern half of the
forecast area after 00Z Thursday. Cold frontal passage will
bring increased probabilities for locally heavy snowfall, with 
visibility likely to drop below 1/4SM in the heaviest snow 
squalls. Direct impact at the airfields remain uncertain at this
time and there remains some uncertainty with respect to timing;
however, have decided to include mentions in the 06Z TAF 
package due to high impacts at airfields if these conditions are
to develop. Presence of low-level wind shear will increase just
ahead of and along the cold frontal passage; however, lower 
(~20%) confidence on this aspect keeps mentions out of the 06Z 
TAF package, but will be something to monitor over the next 
couple of forecast cycles.

Outlook...

Thu...Chance of snow showers.

Fri...Mainly dry. Slight chance of a snow shower at BFD and
perhaps JST.

Sat...Still a chance of a snow shower early at BFD, then VFR.

Sun...Mainly VFR.

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