.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The timing/extent of lowering cloud ceilings has continued to 
be delayed as dry antecedent air (T/Td spreads around 5-10 
degrees C) has limited boundary layer saturation. The HRRR/RAP 
models continue to be favored for timing vs. other guidance 
(e.g. NAM/NAM3KM and LAMP, which have been lagging behind the
trend). As such, IFR mentions were removed at KBFD with LAMP 
probabilities for IFR dropping below 30%, and with MVFR 
prevailing at KBFD/KJST through 16Z-17Z Wednesday due to onshore
flow (KBFD) and upslope westerly winds (KJST). Otherwise, 
scattered rain showers will continue to move eastward across 
Central PA and exit our area through 16Z as a weak low pressure 
moves across the region.

Prevailing VFR is likely (80-90% chance) after 18Z as W/NW 
winds aloft advect drier air over the region. With that said, a 
few showers may develop where the low pressure center passes 
overhead in the afternoon, with a PROB30 for P6SM -SHRA included
at KIPT between 19Z-23Z based on HREF PoPs during that 
timeframe.

Overnight (after 06Z), fog development becomes a concern due to 
largely cloud-free skies and light winds, particularly across 
the southeastern airfields (KMDT/KLNS). For KMDT/KLNS, light 
easterly flow on the backside of the low pressure that brought 
us rain showers earlier today will keep low-level moisture in 
place, increasing the chances for visibility restrictions due to
mist/fog. Confidence for fog (around 30%) is higher at KLNS 
given their proximity to the coast, with less confidence at 
KMDT. Moreover, upslope winds at KJST may contribute to low 
clouds developing after 06Z, with restrictions to IFR possible 
(40% chance) at the site.

Outlook... 

Thu...VFR. Partly cloudy and rainfree.   

Fri...Light rain possible. VFR to MVFR. 

Sat-Sun..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions.

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