Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Some of the least certain terminal forecasts I have ever made,
even during lake effect snows. The possibility, but not
certainty, of convection exists throughout the entire TAF 
period for almost all sites. Pointing out a few more-likely 
times are the best I could do at this point. After a patch of 
SHRA/TSRA affects IPT this aftn, it could slide S into MDT/LNS, 
but it is not more than a 40% chc of getting to those two sites.
Most guidance then develops convection over western PA and 
sliding into the airspace over Central PA before 22Z. That 
possible area of SHRA/TSRA could (50%) last into the late 
evening while inching eastward. A significant push of forcing 
moves in from NY toward 03Z. The batch of convection it will 
fire up has been fairly consistent with previous guidance and 
would drop into a pool of very low stability and high moisture. 
These SHRA/TSRA would certainly drop into BFD and then IPT-UNV. 
They could survive into the southern half of the airspace for 
the post- sunrise hours. I would have put more/lower visby fog 
into the terminals if I thought it would clear out after the sun
sets. Still mentioned a period of fog for the western terminals
later tonight. 

Outlook...

Thu...Scattered-Numerous SHRA/TSRA with brief restrictions 
possible; morning fog.

Fri...Scattered SHRA/TSRA SW. VFR elsewhere after morning fog.

Sat-Mon...VFR favored; morning fog possible.

&&