Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR prevails this afternoon with SCT/BKN (4-5kft) cumulus and a
high cirrus deck (25kt) the main clouds. Some afternoon showers
are possible, but they look to remain fairly isolated without 
any prevailing restrictions. Tonight sees a calming of the winds
before things become flow becomes more easterly tonight ahead 
of a warm frontal passage tomorrow. 

The main story remains showers and thunderstorms tomorrow as a 
midlevel disturbance moves through the region. Showers will move
west to east and could be heavy at times given anomalously high
moisture in place. This means the more robust activity lends
itself to visibility and ceiling restrictions tomorrow morning 
and afternoon. Current thinking has mostly MVFR restrictions 
the last 6-8 hours of the TAF period associated with the precip,
but areas where heavier showers develop could lower those 
further. 

Thunderstorms that pose a risk for damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes are also possible tomorrow but chances are highest
later in the afternoon. Regardless, introduced some PROB30s into
LNS and MDT to account for earlier timing as there is some
uncertainty on a narrow thunderstorm time window. Sites like
AOO, UNV, and IPT may see -TSRA in some capacity as well so 
will be reassessing those sites for increased confidence in 
future TAF packages. However, but the best lineup of of 
instability and forcing at this time looks to be at MDT and LNS.

Wind shear should also be discussed as a strong 850mb jet will
overspread the Commonwealth in the morning hours Monday, which 
may lead to some LLWS >35kts. Guidance picked out JST as the 
most likely site to see LLWS >35kts for this TAF package.
However, BFD, AOO, UNV, and IPT should watch for future LLWS 
mentions as the track of the low and warm front appear further
to the north in this morning's guidance. 


Outlook...

Mon...Restrictions likely with a few periods of rain/or showers
and thunderstorms.

Tue...Lower chances of showers, mainly VFR.

Wed...Mainly VFR, watching for precipitation chances though in 
the evening/overnight.

Thu...Restrictions possible in another round of
evening/overnight.

Fri...Restrictions possible in another round of daytime/evening 
showers.

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