Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It appears that dry conditions will prevail overnight for most, 
with the bulk of model guidance keeping ceilings above VFR. The
main concern for the rest of tonight will be LLWS at eastern 
TAF sites as surface winds decrease to less than 10 knots while 
winds at 2000 feet remain around 40 knots.

Rainfall appears to be more widespread after 15Z with the 
the nor'easter closer to the NJ Coast. This will bring a higher
potential for lower ceilings and visibilities across much of 
the region. Ceilings and visibility should deteriorate 
throughout the day, with IFR conditions possible at nearly 
every airfield by 00Z Monday. Any showers will be quite 
efficient and therefore could result in visibilities dropping 
below 3 statute miles (categorical IFR). There remains some 
uncertainty with how quickly ceilings will lower, but the 
combination of reduced visibility when showers are most numerous
and lowering ceilings after showers weaken/dissipate give 
confidence in a lengthy period of restrictions Sunday afternoon 
through the overnight hours.
 
The location of the Nor'easter will also lead to wind gusts 
exceeding 20-25kts across all of central Pennsylvania on Sunday;
slightly stronger gusts are likely at KMDT and KLNS (up to 35kts
possible).

Outlook...

Mon...MVFR restrictions persist in with lingering scattered
showers.

Tue...Gradual improvement, MVFR lingers at higher elevations
(BFD, JST) in a typical northwest flow pattern.

Wed...Sunshine returns, mostly VFR.

Thu...Chance of showers late PM, some restrictions possible.

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