.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds have started to decrease slightly across the forecast 
area this evening, which will promote fairly expansive low cloud
and/or fog formation across central Pennsylvania. Based on the 
12Z HREF 25th/50th percentile members outline all airfields 
outside of IPT with IFR-to-LIFR conditions. Main reason for 
leaning towards these members remains to be ample low-level 
moisture currently in place across the entire region and based 
on rainfall that has occurred across the area earlier. Recent 
GLAMP guidance hones onto this trend, thus moderate-to-high 
(60-80%) confidence in these conditions with timing being the 
main uncertainty at this time. GLAMP guidance remains fairly 
sparse in mentions at IPT; however, have included lower ceilings
due to current dew point depressions ~6F and heaviest rainfall 
along the I-80 corridor but slightly lower (~40-60%) confidence.

Fog/low cloud begin to mix out fairly quickly after sunrise on 
Sunday, with the bulk of IFR/LIFR mentions out by 15Z Sunday 
with light winds below 10 knots. Main concern in the later half 
of the TAF package will be some potential for SHRA/TSRA across 
mainly the southern half of the forecast area after 18Z. The 00Z
TAFs go against GLAMP guidance to include some mentions at all 
airfields outside of BFD/IPT with low-to-moderate (30-50%) 
confidence given the scattered nature expected of SHRA/TSRA. The
most recent HREF 1-hr lightning guidance does indicate lower 
(less than 30%) probabilities for TSRA, so have kept mentions 
out at this time. 

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...AM fog; otherwise VFR. Trending hotter with isold PM 
t-storms psbl. High density altitude concerns possible.

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