.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mostly MVFR being observed in the early afternoon except for BFD
at IFR. Guidance appears to have been too pessimistic this
morning for many sites as the widespread IFR flight conditions
haven't manifested quite yet. The rest of the afternoon, up
until around 23Z-01Z, has conditions straddling the line
between low MVFR and high IFR with ceilings around 1000ft at all
sites except BFD which is expected to stay mostly IFR. JST,
UNV, and IPT are the sites where MVFR has the highest signal to
persist before the evening rain comes in. Pre-rain IFR
developing seems more likely at AOO, MDT, and LNS.
As another round of showers moves through this evening into the
overnight as a small upper level disturbance moves through. Signal
remains high for widespread IFR/LIFR to develop. The shower
activity will start in the western sites around 23Z or so and
spread eastward in the hours after. IFR ceilings are expected to
accompany this activity into the morning. IFR visibilities and
LIFR ceilings are currently expected in some capacity overnight
at each site. As the rain moves out, any remaining LIFR will
give way to IFR in the morning with MVFR looking to develop
around the end of the TAF period. As a weak surface low passes
to the northwest and a high builds in behind it, winds will
shift from an easterly/southeasterly pattern to a more
northerly one towards the end of the TAF period
Outlook...
Tue...Possible morning fog/low visibility, then VFR.
Wed-Thu...Mainly VFR, some scattered SHRA could bring
restrictions.
Fri...Mainly VFR, skies mostly clear
&&