Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR ceilings currently being observed across the western 
terminals (BFD/JST/AOO/UNV) are likely to continue throughout 
much of the near-term, with localized IFR conditions in lake 
effect and upslope snow showers (BFD/JST) through 24/06Z with 
moderate (~50-60%) confidence in these occurring but most 
uncertain with respect to exact timing of the restrictions at 
BFD/JST. Outside of the slightly more aggressive forecast with 
respect to IFR conditions, have also outlined some lowering of 
the low-level cloud deck through 24/06Z at BFD/JST in the near- 
term based on recent HREF model guidance. On the topic of HREF 
model guidance, this forecast package has leaned heavily towards
a GLAMP/HREF blend given observational trends compared to 
initialization on top of HREF model guidance typically handing 
cloud cover across central Pennsylvania slightly better in the 
near-term. This has led to the most change in the previous 
forecast package with respect to ceiling timing/height, 
especially at AOO/UNV. Overall, model guidance is in very low 
agreement with respect to VFR/MVFR ceilings at UNV/AOO 
throughout the overnight period; however, have decided to lean 
towards the HREF solution of some scattering out of the low- 
level deck and slight improvements towards VFR flight conditions
after 24/03Z with low-to-moderate (~30-40%) confidence. 
Alternative solution would mainly be MVFR ceilings persisting 
across AOO/UNV throughout 24/12Z; however, based on recent model
guidance and current observational trends this looks like the 
lower probability solution at this time.

After 24/12Z, high (~90-100%) confidence in VFR conditions at 
all airfields outside of BFD/JST based on a consensus of all 
model and ensemble guidance. Pesky low-level ceilings at the 
aforementioned terminals almost always overstays its welcome and
recent NBM/GLAMP model guidance has also honed in on this 
solution, thus have continued MVFR mentions throughout the 
morning hours, with RAP model soundings outlining best 
approximate timing for ceilings lifting between 24/16Z and 
24/20Z with high (~80%) confidence in VFR conditions at all of 
central Pennsylvnaia's airfields after 24/20Z and into the end 
of the 00Z TAF package. Reprieve will be short-lived; however, 
as slightly after the end of the 00Z TAF package, clipper system
tracking to the north will likely bring in restrictions with 
early signs outlining BFD/JST most likely for restrictions, 
followed by AOO/UNV/IPT, and lowest probabilities for 
restrictions at MDT/LNS. More details on that to come with the 
06Z TAF issuance, where the first mentions of lower ceilings and
visibilities might be needed.

Outlook...

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at 
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in rain/snow showers.

Sat...Mainly dry with VFR conditions possible.

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