Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
04Z/11PM EST Update: Lack of wind at IPT has promoted low 
ceilings and visibilities which will likely continue until wind 
begins to increase at the airfield. Lower confidence on when 
this will occur and the extent of improvement. Elsewhere, 
forecast generally remains on track with slightly improving 
conditions.

Previous Discussion, Issued 7:34 PM EST 12/23/2025:
Low ceilings persist across all airfields outside of
the Lower Susquehanna Valley sites (MDT/LNS), where 
HREF/RAP/GLAMP model guidance outline higher probabilities in 
low-end MFVR ceilings occurring for a two-to- three hour window 
stationed between 00Z-05Z Wednesday. Thus, have added mentions 
in the near-term before improving by 06Z Wednesday. Elsewhere, 
gradual improvement in ceilings overnight is progged by a 
combination of RAP/GLAMP model guidance, especially in the 
06Z-12Z Wednesday timeframe. There is high (~70-80%) confidence 
on improving conditions with main uncertainty coming with 
respect to timing of the improvement. By 12Z Wednesday, all 
model guidance points towards widespread VFR conditions outside 
of BFD/JST, where GLAMP/RAP model guidance outlines restrictions
lifting after 15Z Wednesday with moderate- to-high (60-80%) 
confidence.

Recent PIREPs near HMZ/UNV have outlined the presence of LLWS 
across central Pennsylvania, thus have continued mentions in the
00Z TAF package with high (~90%) confidence through 06Z. LLWS 
will be on a decreasing trend overnight, with LLWS concerns 
largely expected to diminish by 12Z Wednesday. Gusty winds are 
expected overnight with 20-30kt gusts expected across much of 
the forecast area, with locally higher gusts 30-35kt across the 
higher elevations surrounding JST/AOO. Winds will gradually 
diminish after 12Z Wednesday as surface low pressure drifts 
further east of the area and allows for less of a pressure 
gradient driving these gusty winds.

Outlook...

Thu...Scattered rain showers, some FZRA possible mainly central
and SW PA. Restrictions possible.

Fri-Sat AM...Widespread -SN developing, possibly changing to 
sleet or a brief period of -FZRA late Friday. Restrictions 
probable.

Sat PM-Sun...Rain with -FZRA possible across higher elevations.
Restrictions possible.

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