.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not a lot of change for the 00Z TAF package. Main changes
were to slow showers and lower conditions down by an hour
or two in spots, and edge CIGS down later Sunday across some of
the areas like the southeast.
While models have lower dewpoints (around 3 degrees) for later
Sunday now, than 2 days ago, one is still looking dewpoints
around 70 degrees over the southeast. enough for lower conditions,
heavy rain, and a perhaps some strong storms. As an example,
starting to see more in the way of showers forming over western
Ohio. Also had some interesting bands of CU outside the office
at mid to late aft.
More information below.
Widespread VFR conditions and generally expected through 06Z
Sunday with high (~70-80%) confidence. In the near-term, main
concern will be low-end VFR to high-end MVFR CIGs; however,
coverage will likely remain scattered in the lowest levels due
to some remaining low-level dry air in place across the region.
After 06Z Sunday, a lower-level deck ~5000-10000ft AGL likely
begins to enter the region based on a consensus of HREF/NBM
model guidance with an approaching system. Shower activity
likely remains west of BFD/JST until closer to the ~09Z-10Z
Sunday timeframe, where a rapid deterioration is progged by
virtually all model guidance. SHRA will continue west-to-east,
producing widespread IFR-to-LIFR conditions to all TAF sites
outside of MDT/LNS by 14Z Sunday with fairly high (~60-70%)
confidence at this time. A combination of GLAMP/HREF/RAP model
guidance outlines that BFD/JST could show initial signs of
improvement in the 17-19Z Sunday window; however, confidence
remains too low for inclusion in the 18Z TAF cycle. In terms of
TSRA, there will be some chances for TSRA to be observed at
JST/AOO between 11Z-14Z Sunday; however, confidence remains too
uncertain for even a PROB30 at this juncture due to lack of
instability and time of day considerations.
Further southeast, an interesting TAF cycle with southeasterly
winds prevailing at MDT/LNS for an extended period of time after
sunset this evening. This set-up does raise some signal for
lower ceilings at MDT/LNS closer to sunrise (generally between
08Z and 12Z Sunday). Some hi-res model guidance does indicate
this potential, and recent GLAMP runs have warmed up to the idea
of this occurring, thus have penciled in some MVFR CIGs at LNS
that could trend lower. MDT likely struggles to get sub-VFR
conditions in this timeframe; however, as they historically have
a hard time getting BR/FG in this set-up. The bulk of model
guidance also does indicate that MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are more likely
with SHRA activity, and have trended this way in the most
recent TAF package with slightly lower (~40-50%) confidence.
Outlook...
Mon-Tue...VFR most of the time. Chance of showers/tstm Monday.
Wed-Thu...Afternoon showers or a TSRA with brief restrictions
possible. Otherwise, VFR.
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