.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Timing of flight restrictions has continued to be delayed due 
to dry antecedent air mass (T/Td spreads around 10 degrees C) 
ahead of showers associated with low pressure moving across the 
Great Lakes. The HRRR/RAP models were favored for timing of 
boundary layer saturation over other guidance (e.g. NAM/NAM3km) 
as its recent runs have been more representative with timing of
lowering ceilings at KBFD. A period of IFR at KBFD remains 
possible (40-50% chance) between 13Z-16Z, though the likelihood 
& timing of IFR will be better resolved as the low clouds on 
model guidance materialize over the next 6 hours. On the other 
hand, while the HRRR was used for timing of initial MVFR, I 
favored a HRRR/NAM blend at KJST where westerly upslope flow may
result in MVFR stratocumulus between 13Z-18Z Wednesday. 
Likelihood of MVFR ceilings decreases with south & east extent, 
remaining borderline (20% chance) for our central terminals 
(KUNV/KIPT) with the HRRR trending drier, then unlikely (<20% 
chance) over our southeastern terminals (KMDT/KLNS). 

Prevailing VFR is likely (80-90% chance) after 18Z as W/NW 
winds aloft advect drier air over the region. With that said, a
few showers may develop where the low pressure center passes 
overhead in the afternoon, with a PROB30 for P6SM -SHRA included
at KIPT between 19Z-23Z. 

Lastly, LLWS mentions were included at KJST/KAOO through 
11Z-13Z with 850 mb winds between 40-50 kts. These concerns will
diminish after 13Z as daytime heating mixes out the boundary 
layer and weakens the nocturnal LLJ.

Outlook... 

Thu...VFR. Partly cloudy and rainfree.   

Fri...Light rain possible. VFR to MVFR. 

Sat-Sun..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions.

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