NWS All NOAA
State College, PA
Weather Forecast Office
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions across the western terminals; however, expect some deterioration towards MVFR as a low-level cloud deck gradually shifts east-southeastward based on most recent ECONUS Nighttime Microphysics imagery. This transition to MVFR is well agreed upon in model guidance at BFD/JST; however, slightly more uncertainty with regards to AOO/UNV given the inconsistencies in recent RAP/NBM/HREF model guidance. Have trended MVFR slightly quicker at UNV given the low-level cloud deck appears to be right on the doorstep while pushing mentions at AOO back considerably given the extent of low-level dry air. Light snow will be possible at BFD through 06Z Saturday; however, coverage remains the most uncertain aspect of the near-term. Further east, fog across the Lower Susquehanna Valley has promoted LIFR conditions at LNS/MDT, which look likely to continue through ~03-05Z with high (~80-90%) confidence before VFR conditions prevail through the end of the TAF period. Gusty winds currently are being observed at all airfields and look likely to continue through ~12Z Saturday. All model guidance points towards lower winds/gusts after 12Z Saturday and into the end of the TAF period. Outlook... Sun-Mon...Potential for restrictions in snow showers. Tue...No significant weather expected. Wed...Potential for restrictions in light rain/snow showers. &&
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