Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Western airfields remain at borderline MVFR-to-VFR conditions 
this morning, with BFD/JST likely to persist with long-duration 
MVFR conditions for the entire 12Z TAF package. The main 
uncertainty with regards to the 12Z TAF package will be timing 
of lake effect and upslope snow showers that have not been very 
well-resolved in recent model guidance. This forecast package 
has trended back on near-term mentions given current radar 
returns and some low-level dry air at JST before model guidance 
does increase at JST after 11/20Z. Mentions continue throughout 
much of the TAF period; however, do want to highlight some 
period where snow lifts off of the airfield and prevails VFR 
with some periods likely prevailing IFR with slightly heavier 
snow reducing visibilities.

Another aspect of the forecast will be gusty winds throughout 
much of the TAF package across all airfields. A secondary 
frontal passage will bring about a subtle wind shift with the 
main impact at terminals coming with stronger wind gusts. Wind 
gusts above 20kts are virtually certain at all airfields after 
11/15Z; however, have hedged slightly earlier on this forecast 
package. Most uncertainty with respect to winds comes across the
eastern airfields, where model guidance does indicate that 
gusty winds could hold off until later this morning/early 
afternoon before increasing more. Airfields at most risk for 
gusts exceeding 30kts will be at JST/AOO; however, cannot rule 
out these conditions at UNV/BFD as well this afternoon mainly 
between 11/15Z and 12/00Z.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Sub-VFR most likely at KBFD and KJST with periods of 
snow showers. 

Fri-Sat...Improving conditions late week into the weekend

Sun...Monitoring potential for winter weather on Sunday. Most
likely restrictions are in southern PA at this time.

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