Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered lake effect and upslope snow showers are lingering 
across the northern and western terminals of central 
Pennsylvania this morning (all but MDT/LNS) with reductions in 
visibility over the next couple of hours. General rule of thumb 
will remain MVFR in these snow showers based off of recent 
observations at BFD/JST/UNV; however, model guidance has 
indicated brief drops to IFR cannot be entirely ruled out at 
BFD/JST through 12/15Z. Probabilities outline BFD as the most 
likely candidate for reaching IFR thresholds based on visibility
in locally heavier snow showers. Snow shower coverage is 
expected to decrease through 12/18Z with moderate-to-high 
(60-70%) confidence in no snow shower mentions. 

Despite no shower mentions after 12/18Z, all model guidance 
continues to indicate low-level clouds continuing at BFD/JST 
through 13/12Z, thus giving high confidence in MVFR ceilings in 
this timeframe. Recent NBM/GLAMP model guidance has trended 
towards IFR conditions after 13/06Z, especially at BFD which is 
backed by increased low-level moisture in recent RAP model 
soundings. Elsewhere, ceilings at AOO/UNV will rise quickly as 
snow showers diminish after 12/15Z. Model guidance does 
indicate some increased low-level moisture at UNV/IPT which 
could allow for MVFR ceilings to work their way back into the 
airfield after 13/00Z, with more uncertainty after 13/06Z and 
into the end of the 12Z TAF period.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Improving conditions late week into the weekend

Sun-Mon...Monitoring potential for winter weather on Sunday and
Monday. Most likely restrictions are in southern PA at this 
time.

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