Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is likely to prevail through 00Z Saturday with flight 
restrictions limited to SHRA across Central PA tomorrow morning 
& afternoon.

Clouds will increase between 02Z-07Z Friday as a shortwave 
approaches from the northwest, with conditions remaining dry 
through the night. An initial round of scattered showers is 
expected between 12Z-17Z Friday along a narrow NNW/SSE boundary 
over Central PA (closest to KBFD/KIPT/KUNV), where milder/moist 
air from the southwest meets & rises over cooler/drier air from 
the northeast. Most of these showers will move across the drier 
side of this boundary, with VFR favored for these showers given 
low-level dry air (T/Td spreads around 10 degrees C). 

A second round of scattered showers will develop across this 
boundary in the afternoon (18Z-24Z), driven by instability 
developing on the mild/moist side (HREF mean SBCAPE around 500 
J/kg). Visibility restrictions will be more likely with these 
showers given the diurnally driven instability in place, with 
brief gusty winds also possible given the inverted-V profile in 
place (primarily KJST/KAOO/KUNV). For our other sites, spottier 
shower coverage is expected due to greater distance from the 
frontal boundary & less moisture being available on the drier 
side, though visibility restrictions to 5-6SM are possible. 
Moreover, a few thundershowers may develop given the 
instability, though the low-topped nature of these showers (HRRR
modeled cloud top temperatures warmer than 
-30 degrees C) precludes TSRA mentions at this time.


Outlook... 

Sat-Sun..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions.

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings 
lower and showers move in.

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