Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Not a lot of change for the 00Z TAF package. Main changes 
were to slow showers and lower conditions down by an hour
or two in spots, and edge CIGS down later Sunday across some of
the areas like the southeast. 

While models have lower dewpoints (around 3 degrees) for later 
Sunday now, than 2 days ago, one is still looking dewpoints 
around 70 degrees over the southeast. enough for lower conditions,
heavy rain, and a perhaps some strong storms. As an example, 
starting to see more in the way of showers forming over western 
Ohio. Also had some interesting bands of CU outside the office 
at mid to late aft.

More information below.

Widespread VFR conditions and generally expected through 06Z 
Sunday with high (~70-80%) confidence. In the near-term, main 
concern will be low-end VFR to high-end MVFR CIGs; however, 
coverage will likely remain scattered in the lowest levels due 
to some remaining low-level dry air in place across the region.

After 06Z Sunday, a lower-level deck ~5000-10000ft AGL likely 
begins to enter the region based on a consensus of HREF/NBM 
model guidance with an approaching system. Shower activity 
likely remains west of BFD/JST until closer to the ~09Z-10Z 
Sunday timeframe, where a rapid deterioration is progged by 
virtually all model guidance. SHRA will continue west-to-east, 
producing widespread IFR-to-LIFR conditions to all TAF sites 
outside of MDT/LNS by 14Z Sunday with fairly high (~60-70%) 
confidence at this time. A combination of GLAMP/HREF/RAP model 
guidance outlines that BFD/JST could show initial signs of 
improvement in the 17-19Z Sunday window; however, confidence 
remains too low for inclusion in the 18Z TAF cycle. In terms of 
TSRA, there will be some chances for TSRA to be observed at 
JST/AOO between 11Z-14Z Sunday; however, confidence remains too 
uncertain for even a PROB30 at this juncture due to lack of 
instability and time of day considerations.

Further southeast, an interesting TAF cycle with southeasterly 
winds prevailing at MDT/LNS for an extended period of time after
sunset this evening. This set-up does raise some signal for 
lower ceilings at MDT/LNS closer to sunrise (generally between 
08Z and 12Z Sunday). Some hi-res model guidance does indicate 
this potential, and recent GLAMP runs have warmed up to the idea
of this occurring, thus have penciled in some MVFR CIGs at LNS 
that could trend lower. MDT likely struggles to get sub-VFR 
conditions in this timeframe; however, as they historically have
a hard time getting BR/FG in this set-up. The bulk of model 
guidance also does indicate that MVFR CIGs/VSBYs are more likely
with SHRA activity, and have trended this way in the most 
recent TAF package with slightly lower (~40-50%) confidence.

Outlook... 

Mon-Tue...VFR most of the time. Chance of showers/tstm Monday.

Wed-Thu...Afternoon showers or a TSRA with brief restrictions 
possible. Otherwise, VFR.

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