Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail this afternoon as mid-high clouds overspread 
the region ahead of a weak low pressure system over the Ohio 
Valley. A quasi-stationary front to our south will maintain 
drier air across our area through this evening (SPC Mesoanalysis
shows PWATs generally <=1.0"), with any shower/thunderstorm 
activity favored south of the Mason-Dixon line where greater 
moisture is in place. Otherwise, westerly winds of around 10 kts
this afternoon will trend light/variable this evening as the 
boundary layer decouples.

Ceilings will lower west to east tonight as the system 
approaches, with scattered -RA/-SHRA moving in after midnight. 
Intermittent IFR visibility restrictions are possible in the 
steadiest showers (PWATs increase to around 1.5" overnight, 
improving rainfall efficiency), though most showers will be 
light with VFR-MVFR favored. Confidence is low regarding the 
northern extent & onset of this activity as a result of drier 
air near the surface to start, with the HRRR bringing patches of
steadier rain farther north (KBFD/KIPT) & most other guidance 
farther south. Patchy fog and/or low ceilings may also develop 
across high elevations if cloud cover is lower (via radiational 
fog) or showers increase low-level moisture (via low stratus).

The more organized batch of rain overnight will give way to 
scattered showers heading into Saturday afternoon, with low- 
moderate confidence in timing of this transition. Slower 
recovery from flight restrictions is expected where showers 
linger into the daytime & where more rain falls, with quicker 
recovery favored where conditions remain drier overnight 
(particularly KBFD/KIPT).

Outlook...

Sun-Wed...AM fog; otherwise VFR. Trending hotter with isold PM 
t-storms psbl.

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