Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The first round of rain associated with a Mesoscale Convective 
Vortex will be moving out of our eastern zones by 20Z.

All attention then turns to a fast moving LEWP with several
distinct bow echoes and likely 65+ kt wind gusts racing east to
the PA/OH state line ATTM. 

The storms should maintain their strength as the surge east 
along a llvl instability max with an orthogonal mid-level wind 
max helping to accentuate wind gust potential across roughly the
SW half of the of the CWA.

Timing of the likely strong bow echo(es)is 21Z at KJST, 22Z at
KAOO and 2220Z at KUNV. Westerly sfc wind gusts of 40 KTS or
greater likely. 

Instability as measured ne way by Mixed Layer CAPE was very
minimal and just a few hundred J/KG at 18Z - to the east of a 
KBFD to KUNV and KMRB line (where the sfc warm front is ATTM). 

The airmass is notably cooler and more stable (temps in the 60s) 
across the Susq Valley and points east. Therefore the
aforementioned storms will likely lose a decent amount of punch
by the time they reach the RT 11/15 corridor. 

Areal coverage and intensity of the convection will gradually
decrease this evening and the warm front will stay pretty much
in place tonight and stay as the focus for briefly heavier
rainfall rates.

Late tonight, mainly IFR CIGS and MVFR vsbys will occur along
with generally isolated SHRA/TSRA. 


Outlook... 

Mon-Tue...VFR most of the time. Chance of showers/tstm Monday.

Wed-Thu...Afternoon showers or a TSRA with brief restrictions 
possible. Otherwise, VFR.

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