Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Per the last discussion, clouds will gradually overspread our
area from SW to NE late tonight into early Saturday as a 
disturbance approaches from the Tennessee Valley. Confidence 
remains low in overnight fog given increasing cloud cover, with
VFR conditions favored through the night.

Transport of plentiful moisture (PWATs of around 1.5-2") ahead 
of the disturbance will contribute to lowering cloud ceilings 
through the day on Saturday, beginning around the Alleghenies 
(KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV) where S/SE flow may enhance cloud cover 
through upslope. Farther east (KIPT/KMDT/KLNS), VFR is favored 
for much of the daytime given the disturbance's slow eastward 
progression, with ceiling restrictions to mainly MVFR/IFR 
favored later in the evening and overnight. 

Isolated showers are possible throughout the day on Saturday
given ample moisture, with more numerous showers possible along
the Alleghenies during the afternoon/evening due to upslope 
flow & convergence along the ridgeline. Given the moist 
environment, locally heavy rainfall with intermittent visibility
restrictions (mainly MVFR-IFR) may accompany these showers. 
Later in the evening and through the night, showers are expected
to congeal into a band of heavy showers and embedded 
thunderstorms as the disturbance begins to cross over the area.
Embedded thunderstorms appear more likely at KBFD/KJST/KAOO 
where MUCAPE may rise to ~1000 J/kg, with lowering chances 
heading eastward.

Overnight, low stratus and areas of fog may develop and/or 
persist in the wake of this band of showers and storms,
particularly near KBFD/KJST where skies may clear before 
sunrise & contribute to development of radiation fog.

Outlook...

Sun...Early MVFR/IFR and moderate rainshowers across the state.
Additional SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon.

Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for 
afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

Tue...Mainly VFR with a few showers possible over NW PA.

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