Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A tricky forecast is in store for the next 24 hours given the
complexity of the of the two converging systems over central 
PA. The short wave from today is still providing enough lift to 
promote rain development over northern Pennsylvania. Rain is 
expected to continue over northern air sites for the next few 
hours 00-04Z before a break during the early morning hours. The
second system, which is the slow moving coastal low that has 
been mentioned during the last few TAF packages, continues to 
move north along the Mid-Atlantic coast. We expect to see 
deteriorating cigs and vsby with widespread restrictions 
overnight as low level moisture increases from this low. By 06z 
Sun, the chance for IFR conditions approaches 60-70% for most 
airfields. Low level wind shear from a strengthening east- 
southeasterly low level jet will develop late Sat night across 
the Susq Valley and points east. 

A break in the rain is expected Sunday morning, but cigs are not
likely to improve above MVFR due to the moisture influence from
the southeast keeping cloud ceilings low. As the low progresses
northward rain coverage will begin expanding from the southeast
towards the northwest. The Lower Susquehanna Valley could see 
prolonged rain beginning as early as 18Z, and rain will likely
persist well into Monday morning. 

Outlook...

Sun...Rain mainly for central and eastern airfields. Widespread
IFR Cigs and MVFR VSBYS with areas of LIFR possible. Some
improvement late possible in the NW. NE wind gusts of 20-30 kts
possible in the southeast.

Mon...Still breezy in NE flow with rain chances continuing
across the east.

Tue...A little less breezy as the wind switches to North and
skies begin to clear.

Wed...A chance for restrictions mainly early/north with cold
front, otherwise VFR.

Thu...VFR.

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