.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overnight, the highest confidence for flight restrictions is 
across the Northern Tier (KBFD), where IFR to potentially LIFR 
ceilings are likely (60-70% chance) on the cool side of a weak 
frontal boundary which has passed through. For KIPT and our 
Allegheny Front sites (KAOO/KUNV), flight restrictions are less
certain due to the impact of transient cloud cover. At 05Z, 
KIPT briefly dipped down to 1SM with clear skies overhead, 
followed by a rebound to VFR as a BKN035 cloud deck moved 
overhead. The HRRR and 3km NAM suggest that the weak frontal 
boundary will cross KIPT between 07-08Z, with visibilities 
improving to VFR thereafter due to boundary layer mixing and
continued cloud cover. Across the Lower Susquehanna Valley 
(KMDT/KLNS), lighter cloud cover, calm winds, and mild/moist 
air may lead to low stratus and fog development through 12Z, 
with the LAMP showing moderate to high (40-70%) probabilities 
for IFR/LIFR, particularly at KLNS. 

By 18Z Saturday, VFR is expected areawide, especially across 
our southern terminals (KJST/KAOO/KMDT/KLNS), with a low 
(20-30%) chance for MVFR to linger through 18Z across our 
northern terminals (KBFD/KUNV/KIPT). Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms are expected to develop across central PA between
18Z-00Z, with the HREF depicting an axis of confluence across 
KAOO/KUNV/KIPT, which may serve as a focal point for 
development within an environment of SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg. 
For this reason, PROB30s for -TSRA were introduced at these 
terminals.

Between 00Z-06Z Sunday, flight restrictions are possible as 
low-level moisture transport increases ahead of an approaching 
cold front, with ceilings down to MVFR being the most probable
at this time. Moreover, a backdoor cold front may push into the
Lower Susquehanna Valley (KMDT/KLNS) after 00Z, potentially 
extending as far west as KUNV by 03Z, which could reinforce 
MVFR flight restrictions at these terminals.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms 
ahead of and along a strong cold front.

Mon...Breezy and cooler with MVFR N/W and VFR elsewhere, with 
scattered rain/snow showers possible.

Tue...Mainly VFR with a few rain/show showers.

Wed...VFR.

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