Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions prevail as of 25/00Z; however, 
deterioration is progged by all model guidance at all airfields 
for at least some portion of the 00Z TAF package. A clipper 
system will bring gradually lowering ceilings west-to-east over 
the next couple of hours, with snowfall expected across all of 
the western terminals (BFD/JST/AOO/UNIV/IPT) with moderate-to- 
high (~60-80%) confidence. Restrictions at BFD have been brought
up slightly to match most recent HREF model guidance, which 
appears to be tracking slightly better with respect to cloud 
cover/radar returns at this time. The main uncertainty with 
respect to snow onset will be across AOO/UNV/IPT where there 
will be a battle between low-level dry air and mid-to-upper 
level forcing. At this time, think snow mentions will initially 
be limited before becoming more favorable after 25/03Z. Recent 
GLAMP/HREF/NBM model guidance outlines BFD/JST having the most 
favorable conditions for longer durations of IFR; however, have 
penciled in mentions at AOO/UNV/IPT for more targeted timing of 
IFR restrictions. Mentions of restrictions based on visibility 
have been limited at MDT/LNS based on recent model guidance 
which outlines there will be a couple hour period of snow; 
however, visibility restrictions look slightly limited.

Winds will begin to increase between 25/00Z and 25/06Z with 
moderate (~50-60%) confidence. All model guidance points to wind
gusts staying below 25kts throughout the TAF period with many 
terminals resting between 20-25kt peak winds overnight and 
through 25/18Z before potential for winds to slacken become more
plausible. Some LLWS concerns remain at BFD/JST and have 
retained mentions, while a secondary area across SE PA (MDT/LNS)
will be possible (~30-40%) but lower confidence predates 
mentions in the 00Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Thu...Low potential (~20-30%) for snow showers across southern 
Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable.

Fri-Sat...Dry conditions with VFR probable.

Sun...Low potential (~30%) for snow showers across NW PA. 
Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable.

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