Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued widespread deterioration of Cigs and Vsbys is 
expected as we head through this Sunday morning (between 
09Z-14Z Sunday) with snowfall expected to gradually increase
in intensity based on all model guidance. 

The biggest uncertainty will actually remain at BFD, where 
recent HREF model guidance is tending to hold mentions slightly 
back; however, given the atmospheric set-up have leaned slightly
towards NBM/GLAMP model guidance for onset timing of snow at 
BFD. Snow will remain light throughout much of the 00Z TAF 
period; however, IFR conditions are being progged by the bulk of
model guidance, and see no reason to stray from this at this 
juncture. Locally heavier snowfall will be possible across 
southern terminals (JST/AOO/MDT/LNS) towards the end of the TAF 
package with enhanced forcing, thus some potential for LIFR 
conditions between 20Z Sun and 00Z Mon with low-to-moderate 
(30-50%) confidence. The bulk of restrictions will be based on 
visibility based on recent GLAMP/NBM model guidance; however, 
will highlight that low ceilings (between 500-1000ft AGL) are 
also expected across much of central Pennsylvania as snowfall 
begins across central Pennsylvania.

Winds will remain light throughout a majority of the TAF 
package; however, a slight increase is progged by recent 
GLAMP/NBM model guidance, thus have started to increase winds 
between 18Z Sun and 00Z Mon with high (~70-80%) confidence this 
cycle. Best signals for gusty winds come after 00Z Monday, thus 
will need to continue to monitor trends in upcoming model 
guidance for gusty winds.

Outlook...

Mon...Widespread IFR restrictions in snow. Gusty winds late 
Monday.

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at 
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Thu...Scattered rain and snow showers, restrictions 
possible.

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