.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Scattered showers across much of central Pennsylvania with a 
more organized cluster closer to MDT/LNS expected to continue 
moving eastward across the area this morning. Recent observation
within the precipitation shield about to impact MDT/LNS suggest
not as low ceilings compared to when these showers tracked over
JST/AOO with slightly drier low-level air in place across 
southeastern Pennsylvania. Recent GLAMP/NBM model guidance 
trended towards low-end VFR and this seems like the leading 
solution (~60-70% confidence); however, cannot completely rule 
out some brief MVFR restrictions at MDT/LNS through ~14-15Z with
IFR unlikely at this time.

Recent HREF probabilities for precipitation markedly increase 
across W PA closer to 15Z, with recent guidance also outlining a
fair amount of instability. This trend outlines a pretty good 
shot of some thunderstorms, especially in the 16Z-22Z timeframe 
moving west-to-east across the forecast area. Greatest concern 
with respect to TSRA will be coverage which continues to warrant
PROB30s at this time due to just the low confidence in these 
storms impacting the airfields directly. In the FWIW category, 
it does appear at this time that highest potential is generally 
UNV/IPT/MDT/LNS but strongest returns could stray with not the 
best run-to-run consistency in model solutions. As precipitation
tapers off, will need to watch for patches of clearing for some
IFR/LIFR potential overnight, as winds do trend downward; 
however, too low of confidence to tank airfields more than MVFR 
at this juncture. Recent NBM/HREF guidance paints the western 
terminals (BFD/JST) as the highest probability for IFR/LIFR 
restrictions, which coupled with RAP model soundings warrants 
some lowering of ceilings after 06Z Wednesday due to ample low- 
level moisture in place.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions possible in scattered -SHRA/-TSRA.

Fri...Restrictions expected as FROPA brings line of -TSRA.

Sat...Mainly VFR.

Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions possible as FROPA 
brings chance of -SHRA/-TSRA later in the day.

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