Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Warm frontal boundary extending from the Eastern Finger Lakes
region, south through the Western Poconos and SE PA will meander
a bit to the south and west over the next 24 to 48 hours. This
airmass boundary will provide an avenue to a few rounds of
showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms to track southeast
along. 

The most likely places to see fog/low CIGS through the mid
morning hours today will be at IPT and to a lesser degree at 
MDT/LNS. 

BFD could see brief periods of MVFR ceilings early today, but 
IFR seems unlikely. 

Any fog or stratus will quickly mix out in the 12-13Z period.
Attention will then turn towards afternoon convection. 

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected 
for the mid afternoon to early evening hour today, but there 
remains uncertainty as to the exact timing and placement given 
the lack of any larger-scale, deep-layer forcing and the 
presence of the subsiding, thermally indirect branch (right exit
region) of a 40-50 kt mid/upper level jet max embedded in the 
NW flow.
 
Some guidance would suggest storms in the northwest as early as 
15Z and others suggest convection may not arrive until 23Z. 
Overall, expect the potential for brief periods of active 
convection at all terminals across central PA this
afternoon/evening, with a hedge toward the airfields across the
eastern third of PA. Brief reductions to visibilities and 
ceilings to low end MVFR or IFR are possible in the 18Z Tue-02Z
Wed period.

Outlook...

Tue-Fri...Scattered SHRA/TSRA with brief restrictions possible;
morning fog possible.

Sat...SHRA/TSRA trending less likely as cold front moves
southward across the Commonwealth; morning fog possible.

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