Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Gradual improvements to VFR continue across central Pennsylvania
this afternoon as post-frontal stratocumulus slowly mix out.
By around 00Z Tuesday, most of the area should have recovered 
to VFR. However, areas of fog and low stratus are likely to 
develop tonight, particularly across the Northern Tier (KBFD) 
and upwind of the Alleghenies (KJST). The GLAMP is more
optimistic, with prevailing VFR overnight for all of our 
forecast terminals except KBFD, though I leaned towards the more
pessimistic HREF/REFS guidance as low clouds scatter out and
low-level moisture lingers from yesterday's rainfall. On the 
other hand, downsloping may keep KAOO free of fog and low 
stratus concerns, as indicated by the GLAMP/HREF/REFS.

Overnight fog and low stratus will have mixed out regionwide by
15-16Z Tuesday, where S-SW flow will pick up to around 10-15 
kts ahead of a progressive low pressure system sliding across 
the Great Lakes. Scattered showers, and perhaps a few 
thunderstorms (MUCAPE of around 500 J/kg), may move across the 
Northern Tier (KBFD) during the morning and afternoon as the 
system passes to our north. Otherwise, little to no 
precipitation is expected elsewhere across our area, as 
supported by upper-level suppression under the right-exit region
of a jet streak.

Outlook...

Wed...Restrictions from low ceilings and -SHRA possible as the
front moves southward across the Commonwealth.

Thu...A period of VFR is favored behind the front, with a chance
for restrictions and -RA later on Thursday as the front 
oscillates back northward.

Fri...Scattered -SHRA and isolated -TSRA could bring 
restrictions across the region with cold FROPA. W-NW winds may
gust up to around 25-35 kts behind the front.

Sat...Localized restrictions possible early due to post-frontal
stratocumulus and lake-effect -SHRA/-SHSN, primarily across the
Northern Tier. Otherwise, VFR prevailing with NW-NNW wind gusts
up to around 25-35 kts possible regionwide.

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