Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A corridor of locally heavy showers associated with a passing 
trough will gradually press eastward across central 
Pennsylvania overnight and into Sunday morning. Organized 
shower activity is expected to be east of our area by around 
12Z, though spotty additional showers may be possible given
abundant moisture in place (PWATs of around 1.5-2" around 
daybreak, particularly across the Susquehanna Valley). Moreover,
periods of IFR to locally LIFR are likely areawide through 
Sunday morning given low-level moisture and light winds in 
place. Lightning cannot be ruled out in any stronger showers 
that develop overnight, with MUCAPE values of around 500-750 
J/kg across central Pennsylvania, though deep warm cloud layer 
and tall/skinny CAPE profile will favor rainfall efficiency.

Slow improvements to flight conditions are expected through 
Sunday afternoon as low-level moisture lingers behind the main 
swath of shower activity. Cloud cover will gradually break up 
heading into the afternoon, with a period of clearing possible 
ahead of a cold front which will be approaching from the NW. 
This cold front may spark a line of late-afternoon showers with 
embedded thundershowers over NW PA (KBFD), with any 
thunderstorms trending towards showers as the front moves over 
KJST/KAOO/KUNV/KIPT in the evening, with only spotty light 
showers expected as the front passes over KMDT/KLNS overnight. 
Flow will shift from westerly to northwesterly behind the front,
with post-frontal winds of around 5-10 kts helping to mitigate 
against fog development, though scattered stratocumulus may 
bring intermittent MVFR to perhaps IFR ceilings (primarily for 
upslope/intermountain terminals, KBFD/KJST/KUNV/KIPT).

Outlook...

Sun...Early MVFR/IFR and moderate rainshowers across the state.
Additional SHRA/TSRA in the afternoon.

Mon...Primarily VFR conditions, with some potential for 
afternoon SHRA/TSRA.

Tue-Thur...Mainly VFR with a showers possible over NW PA.

&&