.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Patchy MVFR ceilings (KMDT/KLNS) and localized fog (mainly
KIPT, with patchy BR/FG around KMDT/KLNS as well) will persist
over eastern Pennsylvania this morning as a cold front slowly
presses eastward. A compact shortwave moving over the Great
Lakes will reinvigorate convection ahead of the front this
morning, mainly along the I-95 corridor, though a few showers
may move across KLNS before drier air moves in for the
afternoon. While thunder cannot be ruled out at KLNS (10%
chance), MUCAPE trending towards 0 J/kg around the onset of
these showers precludes thunder mentions at this time. For KMDT,
drier air filtering in behind the front will limit shower
activity, with PoPs of around 10-20%. Brief MVFR visibilities
will be possible with these showers, primarily at KLNS, with
restrictions otherwise unlikely.
Otherwise, surface winds today will continue to trend westerly
behind the front, with cloud bases lowering as the shortwave
approaches from the northwest. Ceiling restrictions will be most
likely at KBFD/KJST within this common upslope/lake flow setup,
primarily around and after 18Z Friday, with lower chances east
of the Alleghenies. A few light showers will be possible as
well, mainly over KBFD closer to the center of the shortwave.
Additionally, brief periods of VFR may occur at KBFD/KJST
between roughly 00Z and 06Z Saturday as a dry slot wraps around
the center of the shortwave before low-level moisture flows
back in.
Outlook...
Sat-Mon...Breezy with showers and sub-VFR ceilings possible
over the NW 1/2 of the airspace. Max gusts 20-25kt.
Tue...Mainly VFR with westerly winds gusting up to around 20-25
kts during the daytime.
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