Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Active period for the next 24 hrs as a cold front moves through
from N to S. TSRA just N of BFD as a shortwave trough is passing
over LE. The front seems to be near DTW and through YYZ, 
marching steadily but slowly southward. Have placed VCTS at BFD
starting at 20Z, but TS could (50%) arrive before, then have a 
couple hour break before more TS threatens. Have timed TS thru 
each site with a rough 3 hr window. LLWS threatens most sites 
for 4-6 hrs before the front moves through with the worst WS at 
JST with wind field around 50KT FL020. Some of the TS will 
contain hail and make significant downdrafts as they move 
through. The storm motion will be more west to east, likely 
riding along the front. Not dissimilar to a few days ago. 

The strong llvl winds will keep moisture flowing over the front
and make numerous SHRA and a few TSRA behind the front. Cigs 
probably (60%) lower to IFR across the N at BFD shortly aft 00Z,
and remain in place for most of the night. Drying N wind will 
help many other sites stay MVFR behind the front when it is not 
raining. The drier air and wind will also keep BR from becoming 
FG. The highest chance for IFR will be at BFD and JST. The 
morning should help all sites improve to VFR and be there for 
the rest of the day. 

Outlook...

Fri...Gusty AM wind diminishing aftn. Otherwise VFR. 

Sat-Sun...VFR.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...NMRS SHRA. TSRA poss W.

&&