Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Current satellite outlines river valley fog slowly expanding 
across central Pennsylvania, which is likely to continue 
through 12Z Tuesday. In the near-term BFD/UNV/IPT will once 
again be the main airfields of concern although cannot one-
hundred percent rule out that fog makes a run towards AOO as 
well over the next couple of hours. Recent GLAMP guidance 
continues to outline IFR/VLIFR conditions closer to sunrise 
(between 09Z-12Z Tuesday) along with NBM model guidance. 
Generally think a brief period of MVFR is the most likely 
solution with airfields that experience fog more often in this 
set-up (BFD/UNV/IPT) potentially having a brief period of IFR 
conditions.

Any fog Tuesday morning likely mixes out quickly with VFR 
conditions likely (> 90% chance) by 14Z Tuesday. Recent HREF 
ensemble guidance outlines a scattered-to-broken high-level 
cloud deck filtering in later this morning and continuing 
through the end of the 06Z TAF package. Fairly high (~70-80%) 
confidence (~90%) on there being some higher level clouds, but 
generally all ceilings should remain above 20,000ft AGL through 
the end of the TAF package.

Outlook...

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible 
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Fri...VFR prevails with drier conditions across all of central 
Pennsylvania.

Sat...Primarily VFR conditions, some potential for afternoon 
SHRA/TSRA but uncertainty remains high.

&&