Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions continue as of 25/06z, with low-level
dry air preventing snow aloft from reaching the ground. An 
exception to this was at KBFD, where IFR conditions were 
observed between 04z-05z as a band of snow briefly overcame the 
dry air, with a quick recovery to VFR as the band moved away 
from the airport. 

Nevertheless, gradually lowering ceilings and light snow are 
still expected to progress west-to-east over the next couple of 
hours, with snowfall expected across all of the western 
terminals (BFD/JST/AOO/UNV/IPT) with moderate-to-high (~60-80%) 
confidence. The main change with this TAF package was to delay 
the onset of snow by an hour or two, which was based on 
observational data & recent NAM/HRRR guidance. KBFD and KJST 
still appear most likely to observe IFR restrictions through the
morning due to snow, with the NAM/RGEM suggesting snow showers 
continuing through at least 15z. An embedded shortwave moving 
across the Great Lakes later this afternoon/evening might refuel
snow showers over KBFD/KIPT, and to a lesser extent, KJST. 
Additionally, the NAM/GFS show elevated Snow Squall Parameter 
values over the Allegheny Plateau and Northern Tier between 
18z-06z, signaling at the chance for more flight restrictions 
later today. While the latest HRRR is sparse with snow shower 
coverage during that time period, other mesoscale guidance 
(NAM/RGEM/WRFs) reflect this enhanced potential, though timing 
and coverage remains uncertain.

Some LLWS concerns remain at BFD/JST/AOO over the next 6 hours 
as a LLJ passes overhead. A secondary area across SE PA 
(MDT/LNS) will be possible (~30-40%), though mentions in the TAF
were left out due to the lower likelihood. Diurnal mixing will 
allow for wind gusts to mix to the surface in the afternoon, 
though the core of the LLJ will have pushed east of the region 
by that time, with 15-25 kt wind gusts expected during the day.

Outlook...

Wed...IFR restrictions most likely in snow showers across 
KBFD/KJST/KIPT, with MVFR restrictions more likely elsewhere.

Thu...Low potential (~20-30%) for snow showers across southern 
Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable.

Fri-Sat...Dry conditions with VFR probable.

Sun...Low potential (~30%) for snow showers across NW PA. 
Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable.

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