Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc warm front lifting toward PA this afternoon, but probably 
won't come through, stalling just south of the state. Radar
painted with small patches of very light RA flowing overhead,  
coming out of rather thin mid and lower decks. For now, 
everyone is VFR except for JST (and DUJ just to our W) where 
some heavier returns are showing up on the radar. A gradual 
lowering of the ceilings will lead to IFR at most sites for 
tonight. BFD/JST are certain to drop to IFR and have a 60% chc 
of LIFR for several hours in the late night and daytime Sunday. 
While HREF/RRFS are not as bullish on poor flying conditions, 
MOS has it pegged. Going to lean on MOS cigs and vsbys very much
for the whole valid period. Most guidance does bring a 30-35KT 
LLJet up and across the CWA tonight, driving the rain. It will 
also get low enough and just fast enough to perhaps make some 
LLWS. Since the directional shear will be high, that bumps me 
into including some LLWS at all but JST and AOO tonight. It 
should wane toward morning. While there is a small chc for deep
convection and thunder at JST/AOO, we'll keep away from 
mentioning it for the time being. However, Sunday will be a 
rainy day with widespread MVFR for everyone and occnl IFR at the
higher terminals. The steadier moderate rain tapers off and 
moves to the south Sun night. But, some --RA and lower MVFR and
IFR ceilings will last much of Sun night and Mon, esp across 
the higher elevs. Slightly higher cloud decks are expected for 
LNS and MDT.


Outlook...

Tue-Thu...Restrictions possible from -SHRA/BR and low ceilings,
mainly S.

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