Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A system of low pressure drifting across the Great Lakes today
and tonight will bring a period of gusty winds to the region. 
Sustained southwest winds 15 to 25 mph will gusts to 40 mph 
this afternoon ahead of a cold front. A line or two of showers 
or thundershowers associated with the cold front late this 
afternoon into the evening may produce stronger wind gusts up to
60 mph at KBFD. The cold front moves into the northwest (BFD) 
by 22z Wed to 00z Thu and well southeast of the area by sunrise 
on Thursday. Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible behind the 
cold front in W to NW flow. MVFR ceilings and lingering showers 
are expected at KBFD into tonight and brief restrictions are 
also possible at KJST. 

There remains some uncertainty as to the duration of MVFR
ceilings at KBFD tonight into Thursday. Periodic restrictions
from -SHRA are expected as lake effect showers drift southeast
from Lake Erie, but models still disagree about the duration of
MVFR ceilings. Best case scenario, VFR ceilings will prevail
from midnight onward. In the most pessimistic case, MVFR
ceilings will be the predominant feature through midday
Thursday. Have opted to split the difference with this TAF
package, prevailing VFR by daybreak/12Z/7AM at KBFD.

Winds will gradually taper off during the day on Thursday in a
typical northwest flow pattern. High pressure support calm winds
and VFR conditions by Thursday evening.

Outlook... 

Thu...MVFR cigs/showers giving way to VFR by Thursday night. 

Fri...Windy FROPA with MVFR/showers likely west to east Friday
afternoon through Friday night. 

Sat...MVFR/showers lingering NW early. Becoming breezy/LLWS 
late.

Sun...Windy FROPA, MVFR/showers changing from rain to snow or
mix by Sunday night over the western and central terminals.

Mon...Blustery and cold, MVFR/IFR ceilings at KJST and KBFD in
lake effect/upslope snow. Restrictions possible at other
airfields if clouds/snow penetrate farther southeast.

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