Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

505
FXUS61 KCTP 152342
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
642 PM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor adjustments to forecast snow accumulation for tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain and wet snow later today into tonight with limited
minor accumulation most likely (C-1") over east-central PA

2) Mid-February thaw continues for most of this week with
temperatures remaining above the historical average

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain and wet snow later today into tonight with
limited minor accumulation most likely (C-1") over east-central
PA

Latest guidance as well as trends in radar imagery and temp obs
continue to point to mostly light rain as precip begins across
south central PA this afternoon, with snow at higher elevations.
As temps cool tonight, precip will likely become mostly snow
where precip is still falling (Susq Valley and east) with a
wet/slushy (low SLR) accumulation of between a coating and 1
inch in that area area. Highest chance (25 pct) for more than 1
inch of snow in central PA would be eastern Schuylkill Co.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mid-February thaw continues for most of this
week with temperatures remaining above the historical average

Stretch of above average warmth for mid February continues
through most of this week with highs in the 40s to lower 50s. A
seasonable cool down is likely by next weekend.

After mainly dry start to the week, rounds of precip are likely
Wednesday and again Friday into the weekend. Rain is the
dominant ptype with some mixed precip potential primarily over
the northern tier.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain continues to move over the eastern half of our airspace,
bringing reductions in visibility and ceilings to MDT and LNS.
Elsewhere is experiencing lowering ceilings and the beginnings
of fog development where rain occurred earlier today.
Temperatures across the southeast are still above freezing and a
transition to snow looks less likely as we move through the
early evenings, but the best possibility for snow remains at
LNS. Confidence is high in IFR ceilings across the entire area
tonight, with any site that saw rain today likely to develop fog
as well as temperatures cool.

Any snow and rain will be out of the area by early Monday
morning, but lower ceilings and visibilities will linger into
Monday morning. In fact, IFR ceilings could linger at BFD/JST
into Monday afternoon. Brightening skies will build in on
Monday, with dry conditions prevailing. VFR will return to all
sites east of JST/BFD by 18Z Monday.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...Persistent low clouds/vis overnight, slow improvement
each afternoon

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

Thu-Fri...Sct -RA, restrictions possible

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bowen

Forecaster's
Discussion: