Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

076
FXUS61 KCTP 210430
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1130 PM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased confidence in plowable snowfall across much of
central Pennsylvania Sunday-Monday. Winter Storm Watches have
been issued for the Laurel Highlands and parts of the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Ice jam risk continues into the weekend, but no significant
flooding expected.

2) Plowable snowfall increasingly likely on Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Ice jam risk continues into the weekend, but no
significant flooding expected.

Cooler air moves in this evening as winds become westerly,
allowing for a few snow showers over the north and west.

The ice jam threat continues into the weekend as daytime highs
in the 30s and 40s will support additional ice breakup. The
threat for significant flooding is low as we are not
anticipating any significant rainfall. Flooding would likely be
localized and minor.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Plowable snowfall increasingly likely on Sunday
and Monday.

Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure
developing off the east coast on Sunday as a potent upper trough
moves offshore. While there are still some differences in the
exact track of the surface low after it develops, largely due to
differences in the timing of when/where the phasing of the northern
and southern branches of the jet stream occurs, most of the 12Z
guidance has continued the recent northwest trend that has been
observed over the last few model cycles. This would likely
bring heavy snowfall into portions of the Lower Susquehanna
Valley. The WPC Winter Storm Outlook continues to tick higher,
with much of the eastern half of the forecast area now seeing a
50 to 80 percent chance of seeing snowfall exceed warning
criteria. We have issued a Winter Storm Watch for portions of
the Lower Susquehanna Valley where we currently have the highest
confidence in seeing 4 to 6 inches of snowfall.

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall
forecast:
* There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the eventual
track of the low. A more westerly track will favor heavier
snowfall over parts of Central PA while an easterly track may
shift the heaviest snow to the east of our area.
* As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of
enhanced frontogenesis to develop in the western periphery of
the system. Much of this banding will likely set up east of
the CWA, but could still clip our eastern zones.
* Multiple models continue to show a snow band associated with
an area of low level convergence within an inverted trough
extending northwestward from the coastal low. While this type
of band is more likely to set up somewhere in central PA, it
will likely be narrow with a widely varying snowfall totals
on either side of the band.

A prolonged period of upslope snow is also anticipated in the
Laurel Highlands as flow behind the surface low becomes
northwesterly. Most guidance continues to show a 48 hour period
from early Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning where
snow should fall, with 4 to 8 inches of snow expected along the
ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties. As a result, we have
issued a Winter Storm Watch for those two counties as well.

Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over
the rest of Central PA, so please stay up to date with the
latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR conditions across the western terminals; however, expect
some deterioration towards MVFR as a low-level cloud deck
gradually shifts east-southeastward based on most recent ECONUS
Nighttime Microphysics imagery. This transition to MVFR is well
agreed upon in model guidance at BFD/JST; however, slightly more
uncertainty with regards to AOO/UNV given the inconsistencies
in recent RAP/NBM/HREF model guidance. Have trended MVFR
slightly quicker at UNV given the low-level cloud deck appears
to be right on the doorstep while pushing mentions at AOO back
considerably given the extent of low-level dry air. Light snow
will be possible at BFD through 06Z Saturday; however, coverage
remains the most uncertain aspect of the near-term. Further
east, fog across the Lower Susquehanna Valley has promoted LIFR
conditions at LNS/MDT, which look likely to continue through
~03-05Z with high (~80-90%) confidence before VFR conditions
prevail through the end of the TAF period.

Gusty winds currently are being observed at all airfields and
look likely to continue through ~12Z Saturday. All model
guidance points towards lower winds/gusts after 12Z Saturday
and into the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Sun-Mon...Potential for restrictions in snow showers.

Tue...No significant weather expected.

Wed...Potential for restrictions in light rain/snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ024-025-033-
034.
Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through late
Monday night for PAZ024-033.
Winter Storm Watch from late Saturday night through Monday
afternoon for PAZ057>059-064>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert/Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: