Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

News Headlines

Winter Navigation

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

248
FXUS61 KCTP 251924
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY
224 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No major changes to the forecast. Low potential (~20%) for a
gusty snow shower for northern Central PA later this afternoon
into evening timeframe.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) System to pass just to the south of the area; may bring
rain/snow mix to southern Central PA

2) End-of-February warm-up before a system brings next chance
for widespread light accumulating snowfall for the area

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: System to pass just to the south of the area; may
bring rain/snow mix to southern Central PA

Though still doesn`t look like much, a weak system is expected
to pass just to the south of the area along a flat trough.
Overall looks pretty benign, with a chance for rain/snow mix for
southern Central PA through the day on Thursday. Chances for
freezing rain are very low, since temperature profiles in
modeled soundings don`t have an indication of a warm nose within
a cold profile. Another consideration would be if precipitation
even pushes that far north at all. Multiple newer CAM runs
indicate precipitation staying south of the PA-MD line. For now,
general low chances were kept for any rain/snow mix potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2: End-of-February warm-up before a system brings
next chance for widespread light accumulating snowfall for the
area

Surface high pressure and warm air advection bring an end-of-
February warm-up to the area, thanks to a developing low
pressure system far north in Canada, which will not have impact
to this area. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the
high-40s/low-50s Friday and the low- to mid-50s Saturday.
Although a change of pace from winter as a whole, whether
welcomed or otherwise, one thing to be mindful of would be the
thermal implications to river ice, which will continue to be
monitored. Otherwise, precipitation- free until Saturday
evening/Sunday.

The warm-up will be short-lived as a Canadian surface high
pressure and associated mid-upper level trough move towards the
area late weekend. We start to see bigger differences in
guidance going out this far, where differences in timing and
overall placement of some shortwaves off of this trough will
move into the area. The most consistent items to note with
global guidance are the few shortwaves propagating off of this
trough, one on Sunday and another on Monday, which could bring
widespread lighter snowfall across the area.

We return to a more zonal/slight trough pattern heading into
early next week, with a couple of weak shortwaves moving
through, likely towing along lighter intensity precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MVFR/Fuel-alt ceilings are expected to continue over the next
few hours, before clouds scatter out and conditions improve to
VFR levels this afternoon. However, a shortwave moving across
the Great Lakes later this afternoon/evening might refuel snow
showers over KBFD bringing the return of at least MVFR
restrictions for a time. Confidence is lower in spotty snow
showers and restrictions around KIPT, KJST and KUNV, but can`t
be ruled out.

Winds will be becoming westerly this afternoon and west to
northwesterly later in the TAF period. Wind gusts of 20 to 25
knots are expected through the afternoon before starting to ease
later this evening.

Outlook...

Thu...Low potential (~20-30%) for snow showers across southern
Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable.

Fri-Sat...Dry conditions with VFR probable.

Sun...Low potential (~30%) for snow showers across NW PA.
Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable.

Monday...Low potential (~20-30%) for snow showers across the
area, may cause restrictions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...NWS Binghamton
KEY MESSAGES...NWS Binghamton
DISCUSSION...NWS Binghamton
AVIATION...NWS Binghamton

Forecaster's
Discussion: