Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

842
FXUS61 KCTP 161831
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
231 PM EDT Thu Apr 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Revised dewpoints downward and temps upward a bit over the S
for this aftn and evening.
* Freezing/sub-freezing temps look even more likely Monday and
Tuesday mornings.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) MRGL severe threat across the NW this evening.

2) Dry, windy conditions this afternoon and early evening make
a risk of rapid wildfire spread. Risk decreases Friday.

3) Heat and humidity decrease but remain above normals due to
the arrival of some cooler air and NW winds.

4) Cold front brings precipitation and a break from summer heat
late this weekend. Freezing temps likely or even certain for
Monday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: MRGL severe threat across the NW this evening.

2 PM Update...
Good sunshine over all the CWA, and temps a little higher than
forecast, but dryness of the airmass has lead to minimal CAPE.
Only small cu have formed over the ridges of the NW half of the
CWA. We still expect the approach of a trough from the west to
kick off SHRA/TSRA as we get closer to 4-5PM. But, the current
crop of SHRA in CLE CWA is weak and we haven`t seen any CGs yet.
Some of the severe storm parameters have gotten "better"/less-
favorable for severe wind gusts to occur. The one plus would be
the dry soundings which could allow for efficient momentum
transfer and downdraft CAPE. But, we may not realize CAPE past
500J/kg in the NW. Shear is still high (50KT). So, we`ll hold
to the current forecast which matches the SPC MRGL risk of
wind/hail.

Prev...
A midlevel shortwave trough will move out of the Midwest this
afternoon toward Lake Erie by this evening. Although this will
result in height falls locally, the upper level jet streak
associated with the trough will weaken with time. All things
considered, subtle large scale ascent collocated with 250-750
J/kg of CAPE and little to no CIN should result in a line of
convection late this afternoon into this evening approaching the
Laurel Highlands up through the northwest mountains. One of the
limiting factors for severe potential is midlevel lapse rates
that are not very steep. Nonetheless, DCAPE of 400-500 J/kg and
storm motions 35-40 kts with little CIN warrants at least a MRGL
risk for severe wind gusts.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry, windy conditions this afternoon and early
evening make a risk of rapid wildfire spread. Risk decreases
Friday.

Dewpoints have dropped slightly lower than expected - thus far -
and may drop more, esp over the S. Temps also running a little
higher than forecast (1-2F). The result is that much of the srn
tier is AOB 30pct RH and some locations may eventually dip into
the teens. The wind is on track. The fine fuels and wind speeds
are not critical enough to warrant a fire weather watch/red
flag warning. Conditions improve tomorrow (Fri) as wind
decreases and temps cool and dewpoints lower a little. Thus, the
RH should be higher on the whole for the srn tier.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Heat and humidity decrease but remain above
normals due to the arrival of some cooler air and NW winds.

The trough coming through tonight and a weak cold front on
Friday will knock temps down 5-10 degrees between today and
tomorrow, but they will still be well above normal. We go up a
few degrees on Saturday as southerly flow increases ahead of an
approaching cold front.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 4: Cold front brings precipitation and a break from
summer heat late this weekend. Freezing temps likely or even
certain for Monday night.

The next round of showers and storms will come along and ahead
of a cold front Sat - Sat night. SPC has introduced a SLGT
severe weather outlook for eastern OH and western PA Sat, with
the MRGL risk area clipping our western zones. The showers will
probably linger in the Se half of the area Sunday morning
despite the front clearing our zones by 12Z. The significant
cold front ushers in much, much colder air beginning Sat night.
In fact, there could even be some snow showers on Sunday. While
it will be getting near freezing in the NW half of the CWA
Sunday night/Mon AM. Sunday night may be too windy for frost
to form, but some places will get down to freezing anyway, which
could necessitate a freeze warning being issued at some point.
Most certain time frame for sub-freezing temps is Monday
night/Tues AM. Latest forecast (as of Thurs aftn) drops temps
just a deg more than last cycle for everyone = down below 32F,
and as cold as 20 in the northern tier.

Temps rebound Tue afternoon and remain mild into the middle of
next week. But, colder air could sneak back in from the N/NE in
the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers across northwest PA may make a close approach
to BFD this morning, but mainly dry conditions are expected for
most of Central Pennsylvania into the early afternoon. Patchy
fog will continue to cause periods of IFR/LIFR restrictions at
BFD and IPT before dissipating by 14Z. VFR conditions are
then expected for the rest of the day under varying amounts of
mid and high clouds. Winds will be out of the west-southwest at
10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible. Similar to the
past few days, expect showers and thunderstorms to develop
during the afternoon and evening over western PA. BFD, JST, UNV,
and IPT will once again be most likely to see any thunderstorms.

There is a stronger signal in model guidance for low clouds to
develop Thursday night over northern and western PA than there
has been the past few nights. Ceilings likely drop to MVFR at
BFD and JST after 03Z with further reduction to IFR expected.
AOO, UNV, and IPT may also see MVFR ceilings develop.

Outlook...

Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible, transition to SHSN
across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday
morning.

Mon...Lingering SHSN possible early across N PA with
restrictions possible; otherwise, dry conditions with VFR
prevailing.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MDT and IPT both had high temps of 87F on Wed Apr 15, which ties
the record at MDT (set in 1941) and breaks the record of 86 at
IPT (set in 1994). IPT also broke the Apr 15 record for warmest
daily low temp, where 58F broke the record of 57F set in 2023.

Record high daily mins are possible again today and tomorrow.
Here`s a look at the records as they stand right now, with a *
indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the
record.

Record High Daily Max / Daily Min...

For Harrisburg:
April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941)
April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002)

For Williamsport:
April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023)
April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Colbert

Forecaster's
Discussion: