Fire Weather Concerns for a Large Part of the Central U.S.; Severe Weather in the Central Plains

Dry and windy conditions will bring widespread fire weather concerns to the northern/central Plains and portions of the Southwest into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible over the central Plains today into this weekend. Rain and high elevation snow is expected over parts of the Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region through Saturday. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

052
FXUS61 KCTP 141025
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
625 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Leaned cloudier & cooler with more shower activity today
* Lowered max temps Sunday-Wednesday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Significant summerlike temperature surge ramps through early
next week; highest temperatures of the year so far

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant summerlike temperature surge ramps
through early next week; highest temperatures of the year so far

Scattered to numerous rain showers expected today beneath the
anomalously deep/cold upper level low. Coldest day of the week
(maybe until the Fall?) with max temps in the 45-60F range or
10 to 25 degrees below the historical average for mid May. NW
wind will pick up through the day with 20-30 mph gusts adding
to the late Spring chill. As the upper low pulls away, expect
weather conditions to improve/dry out on Friday with daytime
highs rebounding +10-20 degrees vs. Thursday.

After a cool start to May, a significant summerlike warmup is on
the horizon for this weekend through early next week. This
large scale pattern shift should deliver a rather sudden warm
surge with max temps projected to reach well into the 80s and
even lower 90s. Daily record highs may be challenged based on
the current fcst Monday and Tuesday. Max temps were adjusted
lower by a few degrees due to a known systematic bias correction
issue identified in the NBM during the shoulder seasons.

There may be some potential Heatrisk considerations looming for
early next week. This stems not only with the forecast high
temperatures and increased humidity, but also from an acclimation
perspective.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Winds across the eastern part of central PA have picked up
some amd shifted to the west. This has resulted in most of
the real low CIGS and fog being gone. Widespread SC clouds,
feel and look more like fall than spring as of 6 AM here.

More information below.

Not much on radar in our area as of Midnight, but strong
cooling aloft will result in the upper level low cutting
off over our area toward sunrise.

This will result in CU development with showers shortly
after the sun is up, along with lower CIGS today. The
wrap around moisture around the upper level low will
likely linger into early Friday morning, perhaps later
into the day on Friday.

Conditions will improve by Saturday, as the low moves away
from the area and high pressure builds into the area.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR likely.

Sat-Mon...VFR is likely much of the time, although brief
restrictions are possible with isolated afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record max temperature for May 18-19:

5/18 5/19
Harrisburg 94 in 1962 95 in 1962
Williamsport 95 in 1962 96 in 1996
Altoona 91 in 1962/1996/2017 92 in 1996
Bradford 85 in 1962 85 in 1962
State College 92 in 1962 92 in 1934/1996

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: