Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

871
FXUS61 KCTP 101549
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1149 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Continued increasing confidence in widespread frost and
freezing temperatures for Tuesday AM, but decreased
confidence in frost for the north tonight/Mon AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A cold front, with a few rain showers along it and rainfall
amounts generally just a few to several hundredths of an inch
of rainfall, will slide across the Southeastern Half of the
state this afternoon. Frost is possible, but not likely
tonight/Monday morning across the Northern Mountains of
Pennsylvania.

2) Higher frost/freeze risk for Monday night/Tuesday morning
over the western and central Alleghenies.

3) Energetic system moves through mid-week

4) Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer temps for
beyond day 7.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front, with a few rain showers along it
and rainfall amounts generally just a few to several hundredths
of an inch of rainfall, will slide across the Southeastern Half
of the state this afternoon. Frost is possible, but not likely
tonight/Monday morning across the Northern Mountains of
Pennsylvania.

A cold front was nearly bisecting pennsylvania from Southwest to
Northeast late this morning and will push to our south by late
this afternoon. Some light showers along and just ahead of this
front will bring a few to several hundredths of an inch of
rainfall.

Will likely have to adjust hourly and max temps down by up to
several deg F across portions of the Middle Susq Valley and
Central Mtns where a thick shield of layer clouds will persist
through much of the afternoon followed by weak llvl cold
advection.

Clearing will occur behind the front, but mid-high clouds will
stream over the southern half or more of the area for tonight.
There should also be a patch of lower clouds sliding into the
nrn tier for the second half of the night. That patch of clouds
may be just enough to keep frost from forming in the nrn tier
tonight/Mon AM. The other checkboxes will be filled in on the
frost checklist with wind diminishing/calming by morning and the
colder/drier airmass settling in. Confidence in frost forming
in the north tonight is only about 60pct. So, we`ll hold off on
issuing a frost advisory for the time being and allow further
evaluation by later shifts. In any case, temps will cool into
the mid 30s in the north, but only the mid 40s in the south.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Higher frost/freeze risk for Monday night/Tuesday
morning over the western and central Alleghenies.

Almost a slam dunk for a widespread frost for more than half the
CWA tomorrow night (N and W) - and a freeze across the nrn
mtns. Dewpoints will be 25-30F - just low enough to allow the
temps to be able to drop, but not too dry to keep frost away.
Confidence in frost is near 100 pct, but for freeze is about 49
pct. Due to increasing confidence, frost advy and freeze
warnings seem likely, but the consensus among the regional
offices on this (midnight) shift was to allow at least one more
forecast cycle for that to happen.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Energetic system moves through mid-week

A digging/compact upper low will drop across the Upper Great
Lakes Tuesday and bring SHRA into western PA Tuesday night.
There is a wide range of possible paths for the sfc low to take.
Current guidance moves a triple point through the state sometime
between Wed aftn and Thursday morning. However, model spread is
high and confidence is low for details. Using a broad-brushed
approach, we`ll paint categorical 80+ PoPs during the daylight
Wed for everyone and lower them somewhat and slide them east for
Wed night and Thursday. At this point, the WAA doesn`t look
particularly strong in advance of the system. So, we`ll keep
max temps rather similar (60s) for Tues-Wed-Thurs. TS returns to
the forecast Wed-Wed night. However, the coolness could/should
negate worries for widespread severe wx. Moisture feed is
questionable with high pressure cutting off much of the
potential feed from the Gulf. QPF through the mid-week period
looks less than an inch total, and closer to half of an inch
average area-wide. No threat for flooding.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 4: Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer
temps for beyond day 7.

Thicknesses/heights seem to rebound for the weekend. But,
moisture/energy continues to come over the western/central U.S.
upper ridge. Uncertainty in details (esp precip possibilities)
is high as the spread in the mass fields over the weekend is
rather high. Eventually, a sfc high is expected to park over
Bermuda and direct warm/summery air in for next week (days 7+).

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A swath of layered low/mid level clouds with areas of MVFR CIGS
and brief MVFR Vsbys in -shra will occur across the SE half or
so of state this afternoon as a cold front advances to the
southeast.

MVFR CIGS will likely linger through early this evening at KJST
as the shallow cooler/moist air is orographically
lifted/saturated across the ridges of the Laurel Highlands.

Conditions will be MVFR in all areas before midnight.

Light west winds in the east will veer around to the northwest
with the passage of the cold front. NW Winds elsewhere this
afternoon will have minor gusts into the mid teens.

Wet by Wednesday with lower conditions again.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR conditions expected to prevail.

Wed...Restrictions possible with rain.

Thu...Lingering clouds and showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambert/Martin

Forecaster's
Discussion: