Fire Weather Concerns; Record Warmth Spreads

The Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley continue with warm and dry conditions. Any fires that initiate could spread quickly. The warm temperatures will expand across the Southern Plains into the Southwest where numerous records are expected through the weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front will move southward across the northern Plains and Great Lakes region where some snow will develop this weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

738
FXUS61 KCTP 010718
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
218 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Precip arrival pushed later Mon night; maybe even dry most of
the night
* Freezing rain threat for all the area Tues

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations likely
Tuesday

2) Periods of rain with temperatures very much above normal
Wed onward

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Wintry mix with light freezing rain accumulations
likely Tuesday

Large 1040hPa high pressure dome slides over the NErn US
Monday, pressing very dry air into the state. The W-E frontal
boundary will be very far to the south of the state Monday, but
warm/moist air will overrun the dome. Precip is expected to get
right up to the Mason-Dixon Line on Monday, and bubble north
into the CWA later Monday night. There could be a small patch
of --SN slide thru the Laurels and South-Central Mtns on Monday.
But, there is a near-consensus for the timing of precip onset
to be a few hours slower on these latest runs. NAM having
troubles staying with the pack; as it is bringing light precip
up well north/faster then any other model on Mon night. We`ll
follow with the bigger group for now, and expect precip to
arrive in the S around sunrise Tues. Temps will be very close to
freezing at that time in the S and a few degs colder over the
central and northern 2/3rds of the CWA. While current wind dir
progs have it mainly srly on Tuesday, the big high may keep the
dry/cooler air wedged up against the mtns, and keep the wind
light and more from the E/SE. That would result in cold air
damming and raise the risk of temps staying below freezing
longer into the day, esp for the NErn third of the CWA. With the
strong WAA aloft, the light mix of precip will turn to all
liquid fairly quickly (before noon) in the SW half of the CWA,
with the rest of the CWA becoming all liquid by 21Z. With the
sfc temps cold to start, there is a 3-6hr window of possible ZR
and ice accretions. Again, the current QPF thru noon Tues is
pretty light (0.10-0.20"). So, any ice accretions should be
below warning criteria (0.25" S, 0.50" N). As it looks now, this
could eventually necessitate an advy for the ZR, and all of the
CWA is at risk for a thin glaze. But, at this range, we`ll just
advertise it here in the discussion. Sfc temps are the most
challenging thing for this situation, and will be the most
likely thing to bust/change the forecast. Without a high
certainty in the temps and the changing timing of the precip
onset, confidence is too low to do more than just mention it
here in the discussion and in the HWO (which we have been for a
couple of days). It should turn to all plain rain before
sunset Tues, even in the NE. Those areas that do get ice in the
AM won`t have any left in the aftn as temps rise and melt it.

---------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of rain with temperatures very much
above normal Wed onward

Big sfc high parks off the East Coast and directs plenty of warm
and moist air up into the state for the rest of the week and
weekend. Temps are slated to be very much above normal. The W-E
frontal boundary does become pretty stationary, but wavy, over
the CWA for that time frame, though. There is a possibility of a
small surge of cooler air sliding down from the NE (backdoor
cold front) Friday-ish. But, by then, the temps will be so warm
that no threat exists for any wintry precip. It should all be
plain rain. The wavy front will be the pathway for repeated shot
of forcing and consistent lift. So...it should be a wet time.
But, that`s not so bad, considering some of the area is still in
drought.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Light snow is beginning to enter northwest PA and will spread
eastward through the night. IFR visibility is likely at BFD in
snow, while the potential for visibility restrictions at other
sites is uncertain due to the fact that low level dry air may
make it hard for any precip to reach the ground. Regardless of
whether or not any precip falls, ceilings will lower to MVFR at
BFD, JST, AOO, UNV, and possibly IPT as the snow pushes east.

Skies clear out from northwest to southeast during the day as
high pressure builds in from the north. VFR conditions are
expected for all of Central PA after 16Z, continuing through the
end of the 06Z TAF period. A few low clouds may try to develop
after 00Z near BFD, but the very dry airmass moving into the
region should limit their extent.

Outlook...

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...Restrictions likely in wintry mix changing to rain.

Wed-Thu...Restrictions possible in periods of rain.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Bauco

Forecaster's
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