Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

090
FXUS61 KCTP 230020
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
720 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Cold Weather Advisory and Extreme Cold Watch issued for
Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills expand from
northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into Saturday morning

2) Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow accumulation and
widespread moderate to major winter storm impacts Saturday
night through Sunday night/AM Monday

3) Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures and sub-zero
to dangerous wind chills expected next Monday through Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Frigid temperatures and dangerous wind chills
expand from northwest to southeast Friday afternoon into
Saturday morning

Following a relatively mild afternoon, arctic air is poised to
return to the forecast area - filtering in from northwest to
southeast through Friday night. High confidence in -10 to -20F
wind chills across all of CPA Friday afternoon into early
Saturday morning approaching extreme cold criteria in the
Laurel Highlands. Frigid arctic air will remain in place prior
to the onset of the winter storm/heavy snowfall this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for double digit heavy snow
accumulation and widespread moderate to major winter storm
impacts Saturday night through Sunday night/AM Monday

Double-digit snowfall and widespread moderate to major winter
storm impacts are becoming more likely across most of CPA
Saturday night through Sunday night/AM Monday. As northern and
southern branches of the jet stream interact and merge, pronounced
WAA and accompanying 850-700mb fgen response will drive
deep ascent into a rapidly moistening column thanks to IVT
above the 90th climatological percentile. This phase transition
along with favorable jet dynamics will spell an impressive
snowfall for most of the area with rates >1"/hr likely. As
secondary low pressure develops offshore (in a Miller B type
evolution), banded structures within the WAA zone may pivot over
the area Sunday night/AM Monday. Latest odds for >10" are better
than 50/50 over most of the area peaking 70-85% range across the
south central and eastern portions of the CWA. The arctic air
would favor a dry, fluffy snowfall over the weekend and be more
prone to blowing/drifting impacts.

We still can`t rule out some mixing with sleet/zr at the peak
of warm air advection aloft, and this trend will need to be
monitored as it could cut down on max snowfall. NBM wx grids did
begin to introduce a slight chance of ip/zr along the southern
tier later Sunday into Sunday night.

Please continue to check for the latest forecast as it evolves
and details become more clear. Now is the time to prepare. Think
snow blowers, re-arranging travel plans to avoid travel during
the storm, what to do in case of a power outage, etc. Remember
it will be very cold before, during and after the storm. Never
run a generator indoors due to carbon monoxide.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Arctic blast persists with frigid temperatures
and sub-zero to dangerous wind chills expected next Monday
through Wednesday

A prolonged stretch of frigid temperatures continues next week
through the end of January. Sub-zero to dangerous wind chills
will also persist with the most likely timing for another round
of cold wx headlines (-10 to -20F wind chills) Monday night
through Tuesday morning. Given the prolonged nature of the
bitter cold, we may begin to see more infrastructure impacts
(frozen pipes) by next week.

Occasional lake effect/upslope snow showers are likely next week
under a very cold cyclonic flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mostly clear skies are expected across the forecast area
overnight outside of BFD/JST and MDT/LNS which will likely
experience cloud cover overnight based on most recent HREF model
guidance. Across southwestern Pennsylvania (JST), highest
probabilities for cloud cover come between 23/00Z-04Z with more
dry air in place further east, which will limit cloud cover at
AOO with high (~70-80%) confidence. Cloud cover currently across
western New York will continue to gradually shift southward and
get into BFD after 23/01Z and is likely to continue through the
rest of the 00Z TAF package, with MVFR conditions becoming more
likely after 23/09Z. Recent model guidance does indicate some
scattering out of the low-level (below 3000ft AGL) cloud deck at
BFD with a period of VFR conditions in the 23/10Z-13Z
timeframe; however, low (~20%) confidence in this solution at
this juncture. Cloud cover is also progged by the bulk of model
guidance to begin filtering into southeastern Pennsylvania after
23/09Z, thus have included mentions in VFR ceilings at MDT/LNS
with moderate-to-high (~60-80%) confidence.

Gusty to breezy winds are expected to continue overnight with
some periods of relatively lighter winds progged by recent
GLAMP/HREF model guidance. The 00Z TAF package has increased
winds and gusts slightly higher than previous forecasts based on
current observations with winds expected to stay stead and/or
increase overnight across the area ahead of a moisture-starved
Arctic Front passage across central Pennsylvania expected early
Friday morning. Gusty winds are expected with high (~80-90%)
confidence after the passage of this Arctic Front with gusts
between 20 and 30 knots expected area wide.

Outlook...

Sat...Dry most of the day, then SN begins to enter south-to-
north late spreading across region and intensifying overnight.
Widespread IFR likely Sat night.

Sun...Impactful snow storm continues with widespread IFR
restrictions, LIFR possible.

Mon...Storm lifts to the NE and cold northwest flow takes over,
bringing snow showers and continued restrictions to the NW, and
improving conditions to the SE.

Tue...Lake effect snow across NW PA with restrictions possible;
otherwise, dry and breezy.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
afternoon for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053.
Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
morning for PAZ024-033.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for PAZ036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...NPB

Forecaster's
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