Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

533
FXUS61 KCTP 160535
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
135 AM EDT Sat May 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Hottest temperatures of the year so far forecast early next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Hottest temperatures of the year so far forecast
early next week

An anomalous upper ridge building over the east-central U.S.
will deliver summerlike conditions over the weekend through the
first part of next week. Max temps are on track to peak in the
mid 80s to lower 90s Monday and Tuesday and could challenge
daily records in some locations. Manual adjustments were made
to lower NBM maxT by a few degrees due to a known systematic
bias correction issue identified during the shoulder seasons.
This should also keep max heat indices under 100F for the most
part. However, heat risk impacts will continue to be monitored
given the quick ramp-up in heat and limited acclimation time.

A cold front accompanied by showers/t-storms brings relief next
Wednesday into Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to cool down
back to historical/climo averages for late May for the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Mainly clear skies will prevail through Saturday morning as
high pressure sets up off the Mid-Atlantic coast. VFR clouds
will increase west to east as a shortwave tracks across the
northern periphery of this high pressure & its concurrent ridge
Saturday afternoon/evening, bringing scattered showers with
any flight restrictions looking to be brief and unlikely
outside of any locally heavier showers. A few thunderstorms may
develop across the Allegheny Plateau (KBFD/KJST) where the HREF
mean MUCAPE values are around 100 J/kg. As precipitation
progresses eastward, height rises and increasingly stable
conditions will result in a downtrend in activity.

As the shortwave exits our area during the evening, ridging
will continue to build across the region, resulting in residual
low-level moisture becoming trapped beneath a subsidence
inversion. As a result, MVFR/IFR restrictions are expected to
develop after 22Z-23Z Saturday across the Allegheny Plateau
(KBFD/KJST), with lesser confidence in evening/overnight flight
restrictions east of the Alleghenies due to downsloping flow and
less antecedent moisture.

Outlook...

Sun-Tue...Mainly VFR. Patchy A.M. fog. Isolated P.M. shower or
t-storm possible.

Wed...Restrictions probable through Wednesday night with
showers/storms along CFROPA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record max temperature for May 18-19:

5/18 5/19
Harrisburg 94 in 1962 95 in 1962
Williamsport 95 in 1962 96 in 1996
Altoona 91 in 1962/1996/2017 92 in 1996
Bradford 85 in 1962 85 in 1962
State College 92 in 1962 92 in 1934/1996

Please note: State College Co-operative observations are a
24-hour summary taken once per day around 7 AM (7AM-7AM).
Therefore, a max temp occurring in the daylight or late in the
day is usually reported in the _next_ day`s observation. Also,
the same min temp may be reported on two consecutive days if the
min occurs at observation time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Teare
CLIMATE...Dangelo/Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: