Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

944
FXUS61 KCTP 220050
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
750 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Impactful winter weather is now likely for all of central
Pennsylvania. Confidence continues to increase with time.
* Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for the Laurel
Highlands and the Lower Susquehanna Valley where confidence is
highest on significant snowfall amounts.
* A new Winter Storm Watch has been issued for portions of
central Pennsylvania where snow is likely but confidence is
lower on total amounts.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy snowfall over the Lower Susq Valley and Western
Poconos is increasingly likely on Sunday and Monday.

2) A high degree of uncertainty remains with expected snowfall
over the rest of central PA.

3) Ice jam risk continues into the weekend, but no significant
flooding is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heavy snowfall over the Lower Susq Valley and
Western Poconos is increasingly likely on Sunday and Monday.

Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure
developing off the east coast on Sunday as a potent upper trough
digs southeast from the Great Lakes region and amplifies across the
Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic Coast. The latest 12Z
guidance continues to come into agreement on the position and
strength of the coastal low along the New Jersey coast. This
deep center of low pressure will bring ample moisture and cold
into the region for winter storm conditions Sunday night into
Monday.

This system will bring heavy snowfall into portions of the
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The WPC Winter Storm Outlook continues
to tick higher, with much of the eastern half of the forecast
area now seeing a 50 to 80 percent chance of seeing snowfall
exceed warning criteria. We have issued a Winter Storm Warning
for portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley where we currently
have the highest confidence in seeing 6 to 10 inches of
snowfall.

A prolonged period of upslope snow is also anticipated in the
Laurel Highlands as flow behind the surface low becomes
northwesterly. Most guidance continues to show a 48 hour period
from early Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning where
snow should fall, with 8 to 12 inches of snow expected along
the ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties. As a result, we
have issued a Winter Storm Warning for those two counties as
well. The enhanced wind gusts on the back side of this low
pressure system could allow for gusts up to 40 mph in the
Laurels, and brief periods of blizzard like conditions are not
out of the question.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A high degree of uncertainty remains with
expected snowfall over the rest of central PA.

Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over
the rest of Central PA, with the trickiest part of the forecast
stems from the potential for quasi-stationary north/south band
of heavy snow (lasting several hours or more) along the axis of
an inverted llvl trough and leading edge of the lower/deeper DGZ
that will be situated from the Scent Mtns to somewhere between
KUNV/KSEG and KIPT later Sunday afternoon/Sunday night.

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall
forecast:
* There is still some uncertainty regarding the eventual track
of the low. A more westerly track will favor heavier snowfall
over parts of Central PA while an easterly track may shift the
heaviest snow to the east of our area.
* As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of
enhanced low to mid level frontogenesis and UVVEL to develop
in the western periphery of the system. Much of this banding
will likely set up east of the CWA, but could still develop
across parts of our central and eastern zones.
* Multiple models continue to show a snow band associated with
an area of low level convergence within an inverted trough
extending northwestward from the coastal low. While this type
of band is more likely to set up somewhere in central PA, it
will likely be narrow with a widely varying snowfall totals
on either side of the band.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Ice jam risk continues into the weekend, but no
significant flooding expected.

Cooler air moves in this evening as winds become westerly,
allowing for a few snow showers over the north and west.

The ice jam threat continues into the weekend as daytime highs
in the 30s and 40s will support additional ice breakup. The
threat for significant flooding is low as we are not
anticipating any significant rainfall. Flooding would likely be
localized and minor.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions outside of BFD where the low-level
cloud deck has continued to allow for MVFR conditions. Current
satellite is showing some erosion of the low-level deck;
however, an approaching area of low-to-mid level clouds are
expected to gradually swing over BFD and could allow for a
continuation of MVFR ceilings based on a combination of HREF and
GLAMP model guidance. This low-to-mid level deck will continue
pushing eastward throughout the area this evening and into the
overnight hours.

Rapid and widespread deterioration is expected overnight and
into Sunday morning (between 06Z-14Z Sunday) with snowfall
expected to gradually overspread the area in this timeframe
based on all model guidance. The biggest uncertainty will
actually remain at BFD, where recent HREF model guidance is
tending to hold mentions slightly back; however, given the
atmospheric set-up have leaned slightly towards NBM/GLAMP model
guidance for onset timing of snow at BFD. Snow will remain
light throughout much of the 00Z TAF period; however, IFR
conditions are being progged by the bulk of model guidance, and
see no reason to stray from this at this juncture. Locally
heavier snowfall will be possible across southern terminals
(JST/AOO/MDT/LNS) towards the end of the TAF package with
enhanced forcing, thus some potential for LIFR conditions
between 20Z Sun and 00Z Mon with low-to-moderate (30-50%)
confidence. The bulk of restrictions will be based on visibility
based on recent GLAMP/NBM model guidance; however, will
highlight that low ceilings (between 500-1000ft AGL) are also
expected across much of central Pennsylvania as snowfall begins
across central Pennsylvania.

Winds will remain light throughout a majority of the TAF
package; however, a slight increase is progged by recent
GLAMP/NBM model guidance, thus have started to increase winds
between 18Z Sun and 00Z Mon with high (~70-80%) confidence this
cycle. Best signals for gusty winds come after 00Z Monday, thus
will need to continue to monitor trends in upcoming model
guidance for gusty winds.

Outlook...

Mon...Widespread IFR restrictions in snow. Gusty winds late
Monday.

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Thu...Scattered rain and snow showers, restrictions
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from 5 AM EST Sunday through Monday
afternoon for PAZ017>019-025>028-034>036-042-049>053.
Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 1 AM EST Tuesday for
PAZ024-033.
Winter Storm Warning from 5 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for
PAZ056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bowen
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Bowen
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Bowen
AVIATION...Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: