Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Pennsylvania Flood Awareness Week | March 16-20, 2026

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

261
FXUS61 KCTP 190530
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
130 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added discussion about front timing on Sunday and its impact
on observed high temperatures.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures start a steady climb today with a couple chances
for light precipitation through Friday.

2) Cold frontal passage Sunday should make widespread rain
showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow across the
north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start a steady climb today with a
couple chances for light precipitation through Friday.

High pressure will reside overhead today and start to slide to
the east tonight. A warm front is expected to generate meager
lift, but the western mountains and that lift may squeeze out a
little light snow there tonight. Most everyone else should just
be cloudy. Any accumulations will be less than an inch, and that
would be most possible (40%) over Warren/McKean/Elk counties.
The 8H temps rise about 6C through the day, and help us get
about 8F warmer than Tuesday.

A compact Clipper will drop down from WI/MI, and generate a
meager attempt at generating precip Thursday aftn and evening.
Most models have temps warm enough at that time to keep it rain,
but the NE may have a mix/elevation snow. Still, the QPF is
<0.10, so any eventual accums on the grassy areas will be <1".
The PoPs will be highest (30s) in the N and SW. We may want to
eventually bump these PoPs up, but model consensus in precip
occurrence is low at this time. Add 8-10F onto maxes from Wed.

The atmosphere tries one more time to make light precip before
the start of the day Saturday (starting late Fri). This one
looks like the best chance (60-70 PoPs) of these three
attempts at precip. Despite dropping down from farther north
than the previous attempt, the sfc low deepens more, and the tap
of moisture from the S will be better, too. Generally <0.25"
QPF is seen as it crosses PA late Friday and Friday night.
Again, temps will be plenty warm enough for all rain. Since it
will be more energetic than Thursday`s shot, there will be a
slight/chc for TS across the SW. But, no worries for severe at
this time. Maxes should be another 6-10F warmer than the day
before.

----------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold frontal passage Sunday should make
widespread rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow
across the north.

Most of Sat will be dry outside of a lingering morning SHRA in
the east. Temps warm a little more with 50-55F numbers across
the northern tier and 55-65F elsewhere. A couple of places in
the southern tier could take a run at 70F on Sunday before a
cold front brings clouds and numerous SHRA. Timing and
orientation of the front is a little unclear at this time, but
most models agree on the cold air getting into PA before the end
of the night/Monday morning. As Sunday approaches, it is likely
that temperatures across the south will trend higher, while
temperatures in the north could end up a bit lower. In the most
optimistic case, highs in the upper 70s are possible in the
south (Canadian GEM). A faster frontal passage could keep temps
stuck in the 50s there (as depicted by the GEFS).

By Monday morning temps should be in the 20s across the north.
That drastic change will take place while precip may be falling
Sunday night. So, there should be some mix/snow at the end of
the precip. It should be generally minor, with probs of 3"+ of
snow 20pct in the far N and nil elsewhere. It is also worth
noting that Wednesday morning`s low temperatures (upper single
digits to mid 20s) may be the coldest we experience until
November. Barring another accumulating snow followed by a
stretch of clear nights, such cold temperatures will be tough to
achieve based on the expected pattern upcoming.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Overcast skies tonight with light winds will be the story for
the beginning of this TAF package. Overall ceilings should
remain VFR with broken to overcast clouds between 5,000 and
10,000 ft. The usual spots of lower cloud heights are being
observed at BFD and JST. These two sites will largely remain
MVFR through today and into tonight. Occasional isolated
snowshowers off Lake Erie could cause additional restrictions at
BFD, but confidence in these impacts remains less than 50%.

Clouds will remain overcast throughout the day today thanks to
a weak passing warm front bringing just enough moisture to
prevent any scattering of the cloud deck. Persistent MVFR is
expected over western Pennsylvania, while elsewhere clouds
should remain borderline VFR near 4,000 ft. Conditions outside
of lake effect snow will remain dry through Friday.

Outlook...

Thu PM...Lingering MVFR ceilings north and west.
Fri..Mainly VFR.
Friday Night...Restrictions in rain showers.
Sat-Sun...Mainly VFR.
Sun Night - Mon...Cold front passage, restrictions in rain; some
wintry mix possible across the north.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bowen

Forecaster's
Discussion: