Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

173
FXUS61 KCTP 100944
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
544 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added chance showers/t-showers across central and northwest
zones this afternoon and evening
* Discussed conditional threat for tornadoes tomorrow (Wed)

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Spring-like weather continues through tomorrow with
temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday.

2) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some
storms may be severe with damaging winds along with the
possibility of a few tornadoes.

3) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the
week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Spring-like weather continues through tomorrow
with temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday.

As heights continue to build over the eastern U.S. Tue-Wed,
temps in central PA may challenge daily records as they surge
+20-30 degrees above the historical average. With highs in the
upper 60s-70s and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more
like an average day in mid May than mid March. See the climate
section for more information on possible records.

Clouds will be on the increase through the day as moisture
advects in from the west. In some places, dewpoints are progged
to increase 20-30 degrees in just 6 hours between morning and
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/thundershowers are
possible this afternoon and evening during the peak of diurnal
heating, with increased sfc moisture and modest lapse rates
aloft creating just enough instability for convection.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
tomorrow. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds along
with the possibility of a few tornadoes.

A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night into Thursday,
as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front,
numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated during
the daytime and evening on Wednesday. The SPC Day 2 (Wednesday)
Slight Risk area now includes practically all of central PA, an
expansion vs yesterday`s D3 Slight Risk. There is still
considerable uncertainty regarding the extent to which
destabilization can occur on Wed, especially with quite a bit of
cloud cover in the forecast and morning shower activity. Most
likely scenario is 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across portions of
central PA, highest from I-80 southward.

With winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it
wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the
ground. In contrast with the system over this past weekend,
there will be more shower activity during the day on Wednesday
but also a more moist airmass in place before storms arrive, and
no cool air damming signal over east central PA. Given the very
strong low level winds and Gulf moisture connection, the
resultant 850 mb moisture flux is progged to be about as strong
as it can be this time of year across western PA.

While damaging straight line winds will be the primary threat
with Wednesday`s convection, the SPC D2 outlook also includes
CIG1 hatching over the Laurel Highlands and western PA, meaning
the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than
the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do
develop in that area on Wed, they could be strong.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the
end of the week and weekend.

As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front
cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front
may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to
snow Wed night into Thu. Gusty winds will also accompany the
system, with gusts of 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday.

Trending toward the longwave pattern that we saw most of the
winter, with cooler conditions on the east coast. Weather
systems will be moving fast so a lot of day to day variation
likely.

Periodic shortwaves in the prevailing upper level pattern will
lead to chances for precipitation as well as strong winds every
few days from this weekend into early next week. At this point,
the storm track favors the primary corridor of precipitation
passing north of the area. With overnight lows within a few
degrees of the freezing mark forecasted, precipitation type will
be largely dependent on what time of day it moves through. But
as of this time, no significant systems or appreciable
precipitation are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06z update... A cloud mass pushing into northwest PA early this
morning (on the leading edge of strong moisture advection) is
expected to bring the onset of MVFR restrictions at KBFD. We
expect these cloud bases to elevate slightly this afternoon,
with largely VFR conditions anticipated at KBFD by 16-18z.

Also, with the wind flow just above the boundary layer already
notably increasing early this morning along the Alleghenies, a
period of LLWS is expected at both KBFD and KJST.

Although not strictly mentioned in the terminal forecast, the
combination of approaching maritime moisture from the Delmarva
coast and optimal radiating conditions will produce a low
(10-20%), but non-zero probability of fog at KLNS early this
morning. We`ll watch this situation closely.

Elsewhere through the daylight hours today, unrestricted/VFR
conditions are anticipated.

This evening, with strong moisture advection continuing across
western and northern PA especially, lower ceilings will become
more widespread in these areas. There is reasonably high
confidence (50-70%) in the onset of IFR conditions at KBFD, with
less confidence at KJST (only 20-30%).

Outlook...

Wed-Wed night...Restrictions likely in more numerous showers
and some thunder.

Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers,
with restrictions possible.

Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow
showers most likely at KBFD and KJST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across
Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s.

RECORD TEMPERATURES
TUE 3/10 WED 3/11
MAX T MIN T MAX T
Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025)
Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025)
Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021)
State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986)
Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Jurewicz
CLIMATE...Banghoff

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