Critical fire weather conditions are forecast for the Southern Plains and portions of Florida through Thursday, as gusty winds and dry conditions return to the region. A Pacific storm system will bring strong winds and low elevation rain to much of the West Coast and central Great Basin, and heavy high elevation mountain snow to the Sierra-Nevada through Wednesday. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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867 FXUS61 KCTP 211514 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1114 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Forecast overwhelmingly consistent. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Trending warmer through the week with a few chances for showers. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending warmer through the week with a few chances for showers. A weak warm front will move into western NY, western PA late today. A few showers will be possible, but with the no real moisture feed from the gulf, amts will be light. The front slips to southern PA late Wednesday, so there will be a drying trend into Thursday. Thursday looks rain-free as high pressure noses down from Canada. A pattern change has shut down the high end severe weather pattern for central PA for now. Typical of spring and fall, looking at cutoff lows. By late week, we are between one low to the west, and one near the coast. Complex pattern, forecast could change some over the next several forecast cycles. Overall a cooler pattern than what we have had the last 6 weeks. May has feature cold conditions the last few years, including last May. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR flying continues through the afternoon as high pressure migrates eastward off the Mid Atlantic coast. Low level wind flow from 170-220 degrees will increase with gusts up to 20kt across the western terminals KBFD/KJST. LLWS is possible late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Scattered rain showers/isolated t-storm will spread from northwest to southeast along a frontal boundary tonight into early Wednesday morning. Sub-VFR cigs are likely near and particularly behind the front with >70% odds for MVFR restrictions across the most of airspace between 06Z-18Z Wed. Outlook... Thu...VFR. Partly cloudy and rainfree. Fri...Light rain possible. VFR to MVFR. Sat..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions. && .CLIMATE... Preliminary data outlines that multiple record low temperatures have been set and/or tied this morning across central Pennsylvania for April 21st: Low temperature this morning of 29 degrees in Harrisburg will break the previous record of 30 degrees set back in 1956. Low temperature this morning of 24 degrees in Altoona will break the previous record of 26 degrees set back in 1956. Low temperature this morning of 25 degrees in Williamsport will tie the previous record of 25 degrees set back in 1925. This data is preliminary, the evening climate will be issued near 5 PM this evening which will provide more official data. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Martin KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Martin DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Martin AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Beaty |
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