Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

898
FXUS61 KCTP 302326
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
726 PM EDT Thu Apr 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Frost Advisory expanded and Freeze Warning issued for the
western Alleghenies and northern mountains late tonight into
early Friday morning

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and unsettled pattern to end April and start May with
shower chances and frost/freeze risk through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool and unsettled pattern to end April and
start May with shower chances and frost/freeze risk through the
weekend

Several disturbances rotating around a persistent upper level
closed low centered over Ontario and Quebec will help to
reinforce broadly deep troughing across the eastern U.S. through
much of next week. This pattern will keep conditions cool and
unsettled at times as multiple frontal systems move through. In
addition to shower chances, the fronts will bring reinforcing
surges of cool air, keeping temperatures near to below seasonal
averages. Chilly nighttime lows will also lead to frost and
freeze concerns Thursday-Saturday night, particularly now that
the growing season is now active across all CPA zones.

Upper level flow briefly becomes more zonal tonight and weak
ridging develops below 700 mb behind a disturbance bringing
scattered showers to the region this afternoon, which should
help to clear out much of the cloud cover over the region. This
combined with light winds should be supportive of radiational
cooling and temperatures should fall into the 30s across all of
central PA. While there could still be a few clouds over the
northwest, confidence in frost and freeze conditions has
increased. As a result, the Frost Advisory has been expanded a
tier of counties to the east, and was upgraded to a Freeze
Warning for Elk, McKean, and Potter Counties.

The next shortwave rotating through the broad upper trough will
bring a round of showers to the region during the day tomorrow,
but we again expect to see enough clearing overnight for frost
and freeze concerns to develop. The coldest night across
northern and western parts of the forecast area will be Saturday
night with a freeze almost certain, but there is some
uncertainty regarding the southeastward extent of frost as
there will be a rather tight pressure gradient across the region
due to a developing area of low pressure off of the coast.

Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week, but
all guidance indicates that unsettled weather will continue with
multiple chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain is slowly exiting the region this afternoon with a few
isolated showers still present across the state. These will
dwindle over the next hour or so with clouds and skies clearing
by 06Z. The only terminal that has a potential for MVFR or IFR
conditions overnight will be BFD. Elsewhere should remain VFR
overnight with high confidence. Winds will continue to be
moderately gusty (high teens to low 20s (KTS)) for a few more
hours this evening before calming by 06Z everywhere.

Another round of rain will move across the area on Friday, with
accompanying MVFR ceilings expected at BFD and possible (50%)
at IPT, UNV, JST, and AOO. Rain showers will eventually make it
towards the south east, but coverage will be isolated at best.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Mainly VFR with brief restrictions possible in
showers.

Sun...Restrictions possible northwest in -RA and possibly some
-SN.

Mon... Models hinting at another low pressure wave to our west,
precip may lead to restrictions, particularly in the west.

&&

.CLIMATE...
*Daily record rainfall of 1.18 inches at KJST yesterday 4/29
breaking the previous record of 1.13 inches set back in 1964
*Despite a cool end to the month, April 2026 will end as one of
the warmest on record

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for
PAZ004-011-012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Friday for
PAZ005-006-010.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Bauco
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: