Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

521
FXUS61 KCTP 140531
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
131 AM EDT Tue Apr 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increased rain chances and thunder probs especially along
US-322/I-80 corridor based on latest radar trends and hires
model/ensemble guidance

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Bullish signal for rounds of showers and t-storms near the
US-322/I-80 corridor into late tonight

2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues
through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and
Thursday.

3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during
the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely
occurring across northern and western PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Bullish signal for rounds of showers and
t-storms near US-322/I-80 corridor into late tonight

Bullish signal via newest CAMS is confirmed by ongoing radar
trends showing a notable uptick on showers and storms tracking
WNW-ESE near US-322/I-80 corridor along what appears to be a
diffuse llvl convergence or outflow boundary. Despite
sunset/time of day, temps remain quite mild for this time of
year and storm intensities have been neutral to positive
(stronger) on the margin with even some small scale bowing type
features/structures. Odds continue to favor sub severe storms
capable of locally strong max wind gusts ~40kt.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the
week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty
southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer
than normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good
agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western
CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf
states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable
warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s
across central PA from Tuesday onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the
region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows
both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than
our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30
deg F above normal).

Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and
60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will
feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms
expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and
west.

In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run
from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low
pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set
up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled
weather in place across northwest PA in particular.

LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning,
keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally
north/west of the region today.

For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over
much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as
a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the
state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence
noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of
an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week,
continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything
yet!

The probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest
PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see
more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the
southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The best chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms for the
rest of the night will be at BFD, with the bulk of the activity
expected to remain north of UNV and west of IPT. VFR conditions
are favored at all TAF sites through 12Z this morning, but there
is a low chance of MVFR ceilings at BFD and JST. The better
chance for MVFR ceilings at BFD will come after 12Z.

The next round of showers and thunderstorms is expected for the
afternoon and evening. PROB30s for -SHRA/-TSRA have been
included at all TAF sites to highlight this threat. There is
still some uncertainty regarding the timing and coverage of
these storms, so this part of the forecast will need to be
refined with upcoming TAF issuances. These storms will be
capable of producing strong wind gusts, potentially in excess of
40 knots. Winds outside of thunderstorms will be out of the
west-southwest at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots
likely. Another round of showers and storms appears likely to
move into the region from the northwest after 06Z Wednesday.

Surface winds will decrease to less than 10 knots after sunset,
but winds around 2000 feet will strengthen to around 40 knots
over southwestern PA. This will bring a period of LLWS to JST
and AOO.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible
in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
north and west.

Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco

Forecaster's
Discussion: