Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

251
FXUS61 KCTP 081118
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
618 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures tonight into Monday morning have trended down and
will bring some concern for Cold Weather Advisories with the
ridge and valley region likely the only region to experience
near-zero wind chills. The mid-week system has also trended
slightly drier in the most recent forecast package, mainly due
to lack of moisture available for precipitation mentions.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frigid wind chills to begin Sunday morning with one more
bitterly cold night possible across central Pennsylvania tonight
into Monday morning.

2) Warming trend interrupted by potential mid-week system that
will bring next chances for precipitation across central
Pennsylvania.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Frigid wind chills to begin Sunday morning with
one more bitterly cold night possible across central
Pennsylvania tonight into Monday morning.

Cold air remains in place this Sunday morning; however, wind
gusts have shifted to mainly eastern Pennsylvania where a
pressure gradient still remains with the departing area of low
pressure across the northern Atlantic. This has allowed for wind
chills across northeastern Pennsylvania to trend the coldest
with recent observations at KN38/KZER outlining wind chills near
-20F this morning. At this point, only see a couple more degree
drop across the region ahead of sunrise before temperatures
begin to increase. No changes to the Extreme Cold Warning this
cycle and remains on track to expire at 10AM EST this morning.

The more interesting portion of this forecast package comes
with regards to minimum temperatures/wind chill forecast tonight
into Monday morning, where recent model guidance outlines some
potential for radiational cooling across mainly western
Pennsylvania as high pressure in the Bluegrass Region of
northern Kentucky gradually shifts into northwestern
Pennsylvania. Clear skies and light winds appear most likely
across the western half of the CWA which typically promotes
radiational cooling and undercutting of NBM model guidance.
Across the eastern half, there is moderate (~50-60%) confidence
in clear skies; however, a slight breeze remains possible as
while the pressure gradient shifts further east, recent guidance
does not outline an entirely quick eastward movement.

As alluded to above, there remains a couple failure modes with
regards to radiational cooling overnight that could limit wind
chills/temperatures reaching Cold Weather Advisory across much
of central Pennsylvania:
* The potential prospect of a scattered cloud deck that allows
for less radiational cooling across NW PA that could limit
radiational cooling prospects.
* There remain two camps with respect to temperatures with the
colder ECMWF/NAM guidance versus relatively warm GFS/HRRR
model output, leading to higher uncertainty in the forecast.
* Considerations on how low dewpoints get overnight, which
could lead to a slightly higher temperature forecast.

Given all of the above considerations this morning and after
collaboration with WFO BUF/CLE/PBZ/LWX, have decided to hold off
on Cold Weather headlines this cycle to get another suite of
model guidance that could limit the weight of some of these
considerations. Despite having no headlines out at this time,
best bet is to expect cold temperatures across central
Pennsylvania for another evening, so make plans of action with
respect to checking vulnerable populations, whether they are
your neighbors, family, or friends given the longer duration of
cold weather and make any considerations for outdoor pets into
Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warming trend interrupted by potential mid-week
and end of week system that will bring next chances for
precipitation across central Pennsylvania.

A warming trend emerges on Monday, where temperatures are
expected to rebound closer to climatological averages for the
second week of February. This warming trend is expected to be
interrupted for the middle of the week as an area of surface
low pressure tracks north of the area. Recent ensemble guidance
has continued to trend relatively dry as despite any forcing
that will be available, the overall column remains fairly dry,
effectively canceling out any chances for precipitation with
respect to the middle of the week system. Recent NBM
probabilities outline overall less than 20% of measurable
precipitation across all of central Pennsylvania, with highest
chances across the northern tier Wednesday into Thursday. Have
decided to continue rolling with NBM model guidance this cycle
given the remaining uncertainty, but looking closer to a drier
mid-week for those across the region. Precipitation chances have
trended slightly upward for the a potential system across
central Pennsylvania next weekend; however, still a lot of
uncertainty this far out so have rolled with NBM model guidance
outlining highest chances mainly north/west of the Allegheny
Front into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR ceilings stick around at BFD and JST into the afternoon
while the rest of the area will be VFR. High pressure building
into Central PA from the west this afternoon and evening will
allow for skies to clear out and winds to decrease to 5 to 10
knots. While VFR conditions are favored at all TAF sites tonight,
some guidance does show low level moisture becoming trapped
beneath a subsidence inversion across western PA. If this were
to occur, low ceilings or even some fog could develop at BFD and
JST.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...No sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Mixed precipitation possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...NPB
KEY MESSAGES...NPB
DISCUSSION...NPB
AVIATION...Bauco

Forecaster's
Discussion: