Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Pennsylvania Fire Weather Awareness Week | March 23-27, 2026

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

499
FXUS61 KCTP 271032
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
632 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor near term adjustments to T/Td/PoP/QPF grids to align
with radar trends

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Considerable cool down into the last weekend of March
followed by resurgence of Spring warmth to kick off April

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Considerable cool down into the last weekend of
March followed by resurgence of Spring warmth to kick off April

Steady light to moderate anafrontal rain will push south of
US-22 and the PA Turnpike early this morning. Hires model data
shows the rain moving along and to the south of the MD line
after 18Z/2PM. Latest MRMS and mesonet data confirm max
rainfall amounts will be in the 1.50-2.50" range in the Laurel
Highlands. Hydro data shows 1-3ft rises on larger rivers in the
Allegheny Basin with 3-4ft rises on smaller streams and creeks
in the Conemaugh Basin. Still can`t rule a couple of localized
runoff or minor inundation issues early today over the Laurels.

A raw northerly wind/low level CAA will direct noticeably
cooler air into CPA today with daytime highs in the 35-55F range
(north to south) or 25-35 degrees lower than Thursday.

Benign weather pattern expected for much of the weekend thanks
to seasonably strong sfc high pressure migrating eastward from
the Midwest. Passage of upper level trough late tonight into
early Saturday could trigger some lake enhanced showers over the
northern tier, but the sensible weather on the whole will be
chilly and uneventful to start the last weekend of March.

All model signals point to a resurgence of Spring warmth to
close out the month and kick of April. However, the rebound in
temperatures appears to coincide with an increasingly unsettled
and potentially wet weather pattern leading up to Easter weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of light to moderate rain with MVFR to low end VFR vsbys
will continue across southern PA through the mid morning hours
before ending/drifting south of the Mason/Dixon line.

Colder low level air pushing south into PA will lead to
lowering CIGs (into the MVFR/IFR range) this morning before
enough dry air moves in to mix out the cloud deck to SCT strato
cu clouds this afternoon into tonight with widespread VFR.

Northerly winds will gust into the 20s (MPH) before gradually
decreasing during the midday and afternoon hours.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun...VFR.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...NMRS SHRA. TSRA poss W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A daily record rainfall of 0.58 inches was set at Altoona
yesterday. This broke the previous record of 0.57 inches set
back in 1978.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Dangelo
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: