Severe Thunderstorms and Critical Fire Weather Wednesday

Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts are the primary hazard. Gusty winds and low relative humidity will contribute to critical fire weather conditions across parts of the northern Great Plains and Great Basin Wednesday. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

264
FXUS61 KCTP 130151
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
951 PM EDT Tue May 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Warmed temps a little overnight due to the clouds.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Midweek moisture with potential for gusty to locally severe
thunderstorms precedes unseasonably cool/very chilly Thursday

2) Significant summerlike weekend warmup ramps into early next
week with the highest temperatures of the year so far

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Midweek moisture with potential for gusty
t-storms precedes unseasonably cool/very chilly Thursday

Added 1-4F to the overnight temps due to the lowering/thickening
clouds, mainly NW of AOO-UNV-IPT. Also made cloud grids a little
darker. Thus far, just saw a few sprinkles in wrn NY state and
NErn OH. Should do the same in PA very soon. PoPs/Wx/QPF all
doing well in the near term. Not enough confidence to make any
other changes to the grids attm.

Prev...
A seasonably strong upper level trough will carve out over
Great Lakes Wed-Thu and eventually close off over northern Mid
Atlantic before ejecting off the New England coast by the end
of the week. The upper trough and its associated sfc low and
trailing cold front will bring wet weather to CPA for midweek
with periods of rain/showers and perhaps a few gusty t-storms
focused over the southwestern quadrant of the CWA Wednesday
afternoon.

SPC has expanded a level 1/5 marginal severe t-storm risk over
this area with the 1730UTC D2 update. Increasing low-level
convergence near the front will lead to scattered thunderstorm
development, with additional storms forming due to topographic
forcing over the Allegheny Mtns. Ahead of the front, low to
mid-level lapse rates are forecast to steepen by midday/early
afternoon, lending the potential for several stronger storms
capable of an isolated risk for wind damage and localized severe
gusts.

While all of CPA will get wet, rainfall amounts will remain
on the light side with fcst QPF through 8AM Friday ranging
between 0.10-0.50 inch. This won`t even put a dent in the
moderate/D1 to severe/D2 drought conditions across far south
central PA.

Scattered showers linger into Thursday which will be the coldest
day of the week. Max temps will be unseasonably cool and quite
chilly for mid May with highs in the 45-60F range or 10 to 20
degrees below the historical average (frequent 20-25 mph wind
gusts will only add to the chill).

Conditions will dry out on Friday with daytime highs rebounding
+10-20 degrees vs. Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant summerlike weekend warmup ramps into
early next week with the highest temperatures of the year so far

After a cool start to May, guidance continues to signal a
significant warmup on the horizon for this weekend into early
next week. This large scale pattern shift should deliver a
rather sudden and perhaps long-awaited midsummer warm surge with
max temps projected to reach into the 80s and even low 90s.

There may be some potential heatrisk considerations not only
with the forecast high temperatures - but also from an
acclimation perspective after coming off a pretty cool stretch
of weather over the past 10-15 days. Probabilistic heat risk
shows >50% odds for moderate or higher across south central PA
Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00z update... High confidence remains (90+%) in the maintenance
of VFR conditions through the pre-dawn hours Wednesday. Clouds
will be slowly lowering and thickening in the meantime as a deck
moves in from the northwest, but restrictive ceiling
bases/visibilities are not expected.

Early Wednesday, an area of showers and lower ceilings is
expected to enter northwest PA and impact KBFD. At this point,
IFR restrictions seem probable (60-70%) as early as 10Z before a
brief lifting in ceilings before lowering later in the morning
and early afternoon for thunderstorms.

Elsewhere across central PA, isolated-scattered showers are
anticipated Wednesday morning after 12-15z. Forecast remains on
track that these won`t be widespread or robust enough to
preclude any restrictions in the terminal forecasts. After these
initial showers, there will be a break in precipitation cloud
bases continue to lower with MVFR possible across TAF sites in
the afternoon. After 19Z-20Z, thunderstorms become a concern
for TAF sites; brief visibility restrictions possible as storms
move further east towards the end of the TAF period, may reflect
this in future forecasts.

Another aspect to be cognizant of early Wednesday morning is
low-level wind shear, as the flow out of the SW increases to
35-45 kt just above the boundary layer. Confidence is highest in
BFD, JST, LNS, and MDT.

Gusts Wednesday will range in the 20-25kt range. Stronger
thunderstorms may provide briefly higher gusts.

Outlook...

Thu...Lingering clouds and showers with restrictions north/west
and improvement southeast.

Fri...VFR likely.

Sat and Sun...VFR is likely much of the time, although brief
restrictions are possible with isolated afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Lambrech

Forecaster's
Discussion: