Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

702
FXUS61 KCTP 110126
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
926 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* McKean/Potter upgraded to Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory
expanded to Northern Centre County tonight based on updated
forecast with slight decrease in expected temperatures.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Collaborated with surrounding WFOs to post a Frost
Advisory/Freeze Warning for the NW Mtns late tonight/early
Monday and a Freeze Watch for the Laurels, Central and Northern
Mtns Monday night/early Tuesday.

2) Energetic, northern stream system moves through mid-week
with more widespread clouds occasional showers 9maybe even a few
wet snow flakes on the higher ridge tops of the Laurels and
Northern Mtns.

3) Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer temps for
beyond day 7.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Collaborated with surrounding WFOs to post a Frost
Advisory/Freeze Warning for the NW Mtns late tonight/early
Monday and a Freeze Watch for the Laurels, Central and Northern
Mtns Monday night/early Tuesday.

A cold front will clear southeast PA overnight ushering in
clearing skies. Some mid- high clouds will stream over the
southern half or more of the area for tonight, but mostly clear
skies are expected farther north. There could be a few patches
of lower, strato cu clouds sliding into the nrn tier (at the
leading edge of anomalously cooler air aloft) around daybreak,
which may be just enough to limit widespread/thick frost from
forming in the nrn tier tonight/Mon AM. However, it`s too close
of a call to not hoist a Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning and
caution growers to protect sensitive crops and flowering
vegetation.

Temps will cool into the low-mid 30s in the north, but only the
mid 40s in the south. Some of the latest guidance indicates
upper 20s lows are possible along and north of US-6 in McKean
and Potter Counties. As such, we upgraded to a Freeze Warning
for those counties tonight.

There will be a higher frost/freeze risk for Monday
night/Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies.
Dewpoints will be 25-30F - just low enough to allow the temps
to be able to drop, but not too dry to keep frost away.
Confidence in frost is near 100 pct, but for freeze is about 49
pct. Due to increasing confidence, frost advy and freeze
warnings seem likely, but will make upgrade decisions in the
next couple forecast cycles.

------------------------------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: Energetic, northern stream system moves through
mid-week with more widespread clouds occasional showers 9maybe
even a few wet snow flakes on the higher ridge tops of the
Laurels and Northern Mtns.

A digging/compact upper low with colder temps aloft that Sunday
night/Monday`s trough will drop across the Upper Great Lakes
Tuesday and bring SHRA into western PA by Wednesday AM.

There is a wide range of possible paths for the sfc low to
take. Current guidance moves a triple point through the state
sometime between Wed aftn and Thursday morning. However, model
spread is high and confidence is low for details. Using a broad-
brushed approach, we`ll paint categorical 80+ PoPs during the
daylight Wed for everyone and lower them somewhat and slide them
east for Wed night and Thursday. At this point, the WAA doesn`t
look particularly strong in advance of the system. So, we`ll
keep max temps rather similar (60s) for Tues-Wed-Thurs. TS
returns to the forecast Wed-Wed night. However, the coolness
could/should negate worries for widespread severe wx. Moisture
feed is questionable with high pressure cutting off much of the
potential feed from the Gulf. QPF through the mid-week period
looks less than an inch total, and closer to half of an inch
average area-wide. No threat for flooding.

Lastly, the wet bulb zero level descends to under 2 KFT AGL
across the Central and Western Mtns later Wed night and Thurs,
and its not out of the question to have some wet snow flakes
flying at that time (mainly 06-15Z Thu).

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer
temps for beyond day 7.

Thicknesses/heights seem to rebound for the weekend. But,
moisture/energy continues to come over the western/central U.S.
upper ridge. Uncertainty in details (esp precip possibilities)
is high as the spread in the mass fields over the weekend is
rather high. Eventually, a sfc high is expected to park over
Bermuda and direct warm/summery air in for next week (days 7+).

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front exiting the area to the southeast still has just a
few lingering -RA over southeast PA. All forecast location are
VFR and should remain so through the forecast period.

Gusty winds over the southeast will diminish through sunset.

High resolution short term models do indicate an isolated -SHRA
possible Monday afternoon but probabilities too low (<20%) to
feel confident placing this in any specific location.

Winds will increase Monday afternoon with a few gusts to
15-20KTS.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR conditions expected with generally clear skies.

Wed...Restrictions possible with rain.

Thu...Lingering clouds and showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for PAZ004-010>012-017-
018-037-041-042.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for PAZ005-006.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Tyburski

Forecaster's
Discussion: