Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

345
FXUS61 KCTP 180001
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
701 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Trended lower with afternoon temperatures today & Thursday with
cold air damming in place.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter this week

2) Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night into Friday

3) Mixed/wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday and
plowable snow possible on Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter
this week

Following one of the coldest first 2 weeks of February on
record, mild weather for this time of year will be in place this
week with daily max/min temperature anomalies running 10-20
degrees above the historical average. Conditions will feel more
like early Spring than late Winter. Depending on the time of
arrival and coverage of precipitation later this week, daytime
temps may not get as quite as warm as currently forecast, but
will still be above normal.

The transition to a milder pattern this week is accompanied by
low clouds and fog as stagnant, warmer air moves over the
colder/snow covered ground. Elevated dewpoints (higher than
32F) continue to erode lingering snow piles and that trend
should persist through Friday. Fog development is likely again
tonight, especially across southeast PA where a Dense Fog
Advisory will most likely be needed. Additional fog concerns are
likely each day this week owing to persistent moisture influx
and a lack of strong forcing/winds.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night into
Friday

Following one of the driest first 2 weeks of February on
record, much needed periods of rainfall are likely on Wednesday
and again Thursday night into Friday. Total QPF during the mid
to late week period ranges between 0.50 to 1.00 inches with the
highest amounts shaded toward the NW portion of the fcst area.
While we do not expect the rainfall to cause flooding, the
warmer temperatures and increased flows on rivers and streams
should increase the risk of ice jams at least on the margin.

A few rumbles of thunder are possible in northwest PA on
Wednesday afternoon and evening as a shortwave trough moves
through the Great Lakes. Warm advection underneath of
sufficient lapse rates could produce a few thunderstorms, with
the preferential region being west of the Allegheny front up
into the northwest mountains. No severe weather is expected at
this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mixed/wintry precipitation Thursday night into
Friday and plowable snow possible on Sunday

Model guidance continues to indicate a overrunning wintry/icy
mix on the leading edge of returning precip late Thursday night
into Friday. This would impact travel conditions for the Friday
morning commute. We may begin to message the risk of slippery
travel in the HWO. Marginal temperatures will be the main
forecast challenge. If the cold wedge holds on a little longer,
the icing threat in the Endless Mountains/Poconos could ramp up
whereas a warmer solution would mitigate much concern.

There is an emerging risk of plowable snow on Sunday, although
the specifics on the strength and track of the associated low
pressure/coastal system are still very uncertain. A majority of
deterministic and ensemble guidance (with the exception of the
European models) depict a deepening coastal low with potential
for significant snow along the Atlantic Coast. Such a track
would keep the heaviest snow east of our area, but continue to
monitor the forecast this week!

Guidance signals continue to favor a seasonably colder end to
the weekend and start to the last week of February. The cool
down appears to be transitory and not long lasting heading into
the second half of next week/end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Still some mid clouds at sunset, but mainly just high clouds.
The combination of stale air, light winds and nearly clear skies
will make for fog, as temperatures drop off quickly. I hit the
fog a bit sooner and harder than the 18Z TAF package had.

Things will slowly improve Wednesday morning with the visbility
as winds pick up some and rain moves into the area. However CIGS
may be slow to come up, before going back down later in the day.

Overall would expect a wide range of conditions overnight,
given high chance of having sites drop down to IFR conditions.

Earlier discussion below.

While this lower cloud deck erodes, mid-to-high level clouds
will move across the Commonwealth as a low pressure system
approaches, with VFR ceilings dropping to MVFR as these rain
showers move across the northern two-thirds of the Commonwealth
tomorrow morning. An exception would be KBFD, where IFR ceilings
are expected with these showers.

Moreover, a downtrend in visibility is expected across the
Lower Susquehanna Valley this evening as a result of favorable
radiational cooling conditions and moisture advection ahead of
the approaching system. As a result, IFR/LIFR visibilities are
expected to develop over KLNS and KMDT after 00z. There is
lower confidence in terms of persistent IFR/LIFR fog across
KBFD, KIPT, KUNV, and KAOO, though NBM model guidances suggests
reduced visibilities around or temporarily over these airports,
resulting in mentions of VCFG or brief MVFR visibilities.

Outlook...

Thu...Dry early, then rain later in the day with restrictions
possible.

Fri...Rain with restrictions likely. Some snow may mix in over
northern PA.

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.

Sun...Potential for restrictions in snow showers.

&&

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Martin/Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: