Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

News Headlines

Seasonal Snowfall Map for Winter 2025-2026

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

864
FXUS61 KCTP 030729
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
329 AM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* A few to several KT increase in surface winds/gusts for this
afternoon and again on Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread frost and freeze early today.

2) Temperatures trend warmer today through the first few days of
the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring widespread
showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1:

Widespread frost and freeze early today.

Several areas of thick stratocu/low end altocu clouds earlier
in the overnight slowed the radiational cooling, but a clearing
trend is accelerating during the predawn hours and temps are
dipping by about 2 deg F/hour shortly after the onset of the
clearing.

The clearing and decreasing NW breeze will allow for
temperatures to fall into the 20s and 30s, leading to
widespread frost and freeze concerns.

Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings are in effect for all of
Central Pennsylvania through 9 am Sunday.

KEY MESSAGE 2:

Temperatures start to trend warmer today through the first few
days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

After the nip in the air today with highs still 5-10 deg F below
normal, expect to see high temperatures jump into the 60s and
70s on Monday and Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly
flow develops out ahead of the next, slow-moving cold front.

A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80
degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will
impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday,
especially across northwest PA.

The higher chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on
Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the aforementioned cold front.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late
in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns
developing.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Very high (> 90%) confidence in widespread VFR conditions
continuing through 06Z Monday. Low-level cloud deck in the
6000-8000 ft AGL range will likely continue slowly drifting
southeastward in the near-term but no extensive lowering of the
deck is expected with light winds overnight. Low-level clouds
show some potential for a return throughout the day tomorrow
with increasing gusts between 15 to 20 kts area wide with higher
elevation terminals (BFD/JST) possibly pushing upwards of 25
kts during the afternoon hours. Similar pattern tomorrow with
skies slowly clearing out and a decrease in winds; however,
decrease in winds are expected based on all model guidance to
not be as drastic as tonight.

Outlook...

Mon...Scattered -SHRA develop across wrn PA, and some thunder
is possible by Monday PM.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE;
restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ035-036-
049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: