Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

882
FXUS61 KCTP 161054
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
554 AM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Snow has ended across east-central PA. While most places saw
less than 1 inch of snow, we did get a couple of reports of
2-3 inches in Schuylkill County.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dense Fog Advisory for west-central PA through 11 AM Mon.

2) Mid-February thaw still on tap.

3) Late-Feburary cold snap taking shape.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Dense Fog Advisory for west-central PA through
11 AM Mon.

Several ASOS and RWIS obs less than or equal to 1/4 SM vsby
mainly west of I-99. We`ll wait on cues to decide if the
advisory needs to be expanded eastward. At this point, the
chance has decreased to less than 50% as stratus has been slow
to break up.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mid-February thaw still on tap.

Temps really not any milder Monday vs Sunday. So the warm up
starts on Tues. A minor warm front will pass through Monday
evening/early night and a weak shortwave aloft running through
at the same time could make a few sprinkles across the nrn mtns
and Poconos.

Thicknesses get thicker on Tues-Wed. Maxes get up to the m50s in
the S and m40s N. Then, a complex/wavy mostly-east-to-west front
starts to waggle around PA later Tues night. That will allow a
low pressure area and associated moisture to slide in from the
WNW and rain on much of the area. The srn tier where they need
the rain the most could miss out, as most of the rain will be
across the nrn half to 2/3rds of the CWA. Despite a bit of
cooling aloft, it should dry out on Thursday, and temps will get
back into the 50s just like on Wed.

Another wave of warm advection ensues toward Friday. Depending
on timing of precip arrival, there could be some mixed precip
for the NE half or so of the area as we head into the weekend.
----------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Late-Feburary cold snap taking shape.

The warm spell isn`t here for the long haul. Temps get cooler
on Sat and likely continue downhill on Sun. Another shot of
precip is possible late in the weekend, and much of that could
be snow per blended temps at that range. We`ll probably be back
to slightly below normal temps on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Not a lot of change for the 12Z TAFS planned. Dense fog not as
widespread as it could be, as little clearing took place
overnight. Most locations have some low clouds and fog as of 530
AM, but widespread dense fog has been confined mainly to the
dense fog advisory area which includes AOO and JST.

Still holding onto some clearing later this afternoon, as the
moisture is not real deep (00Z sounding just to our west), but
rather mild air aloft may limit mixing, so potential exist for
conditions to be slow to improve today.

Earlier discussion below.

Area of wet snow and light rain associated with a weak low
moving off the coast, is now pulling out of our area.

Main issue overnight into at least early Monday morning will
be low clouds with patchy dense fog. Expect fog to be most
dense in areas that have a bit of clearing, given snow cover.
Overall expect a wide range of conditions both over space and
time.

Conditions should slowly improve after sunrise, but with cold
air at low levels and inversion in place, improvement may be
limited with the high pressure building into the area.

Weak low pressure systems will bring some spotty precipitation
to the region at times throughout the week, mainly across
the north. Temperatures will be on the mild side, more like
mid March, so rain will be more likely than other types of
precipitation.

Outlook...

Tue...Patchy fog possible early, then mainly dry.

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

Thu...Dry early, then rain later in the day with
restrictions possible.

Fri...Rain lingers, restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for PAZ017-024-
025-033-034.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin

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