Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

049
FXUS61 KCTP 151224
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
724 AM EST Sun Feb 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor adjustments to forecast snow accumulation for tonight

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain and wet snow later today into tonight with limited
minor accumulation most likely (C-1") over east-central PA

2) Mid-February thaw continues next week with temperatures
remaining above the historical average

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain and wet snow later today into tonight with
limited minor accumulation most likely (C-1") over east-central
PA

The majority of the 15/00Z and overnight guidance favors
somewhat less to later (timing) interaction between the
northern and southern stream shortwaves as they translate
eastward from the Great Lakes/Deep South this afternoon to the
NJ/DE and Carolina coast by 12Z Monday. That said, the model
envelope (global to regional to hires CAMs) has been very
sensitive to fluctuations in the strength of the northern stream
wave and therefore would not rule out ongoing shifts in
projected snow placement and amounts even as the event begins to
unfold later today. In this type of scenario where uncertainty
remains elevated even inside of 24 hours, we have to lean on
the probability signal and hedge to the most likely outcome -
which remains a wet/slushy (low SLR) minor impact snowfall
range between a coating and 1 inch focused over the eastern
periphery of the forecast area. Other factors to consider are
elevation and temperature profile uncertainty in an environment
where the boundary layer will start off rather warm ~40F with
snow rates <0.5 in/hr not likely to achieve maximum wet bulb
cooling.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mid-February thaw continues for most of next
week with temperatures remaining above the historical average

Stretch of above average warmth for mid February continues
through most of next week with highs in the 40s to lower 50s.
A seasonable cool down is likely by next weekend.

After mainly dry start to the week, rounds of precip are likely
Wednesday and again Friday into the weekend. Rain is the
dominant ptype with some mixed precip potential primarily over
the northern tier.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High clouds over most of the area now, with some lower clouds
at JST. Most areas VFR, but some fog at LNS for a few more
hours, given lack of wind.

A mix of rain and some wet snow will work eastward today,
as a weak low tracks south of PA. Thus expect conditions
to lower to MVFR and IFR conditions later this afternoon,
and linger overnight.

Any snow and rain will be out of the area by Monday morning,
but lower CIGS could linger for a while on Monday.

Much of the week will be milder than in recent times, but also
will feature some showers from time to time.

Outlook...

Mon...Low clouds linger much of the day. IFR expected NW.

Tue...Mainly VFR.

Wed-Thu...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for PAZ057-059-
063-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin

Forecaster's
Discussion: