Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

616
FXUS61 KCTP 031859
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
259 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints and raised wind gusts slightly for the rest
of the afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures trend warmer today through the first few days
of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that will bring
widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start to trend warmer today through
the first few days of the upcoming week, ahead of a system that
will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms for Wednesday
and Thursday.

After the nip in the air today with highs still 5-10 deg F below
normal, expect to see high temperatures jump into the 60s and
70s on Monday and Tuesday as a moderately gusty southwesterly
flow develops out ahead of the next, slow-moving cold front.

A few locations across south-central PA may even push the 80
degree mark Tuesday afternoon. Scattered-numerous showers will
impact the region (mainly the NW 1/2 of PA) on Tuesday,
especially across northwest PA. The higher chance for showers
and thunderstorms looks to be on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of
a slow-moving cold front.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front for late
in the upcoming week, with potential frost/freeze concerns
developing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Very high (> 90%) confidence in widespread VFR conditions
continuing through 12Z Monday. HREF model guidance outlines
another day where a scattered-to-broken low-level cloud deck
across much of the region. Winds will be the main aviation
concern today with maximum wind gusts generally between 20-25
knots this afternoon before trending down late this evening
(after 20Z Sunday) and throughout the rest of the TAF package.
Precipitation chances increasing heading into Mon night, which
could bring restrictions to central Pennsylvania`s terminals.

Outlook...

Mon...Scattered -SHRA develop across wrn PA, and some thunder
is possible by Monday PM.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE;
restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco
AVIATION...Beaty/RXR

Forecaster's
Discussion: