Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

227
FXUS61 KCTP 120247
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1047 PM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Dry stretch of weather continues tonight into Thursday
* Gradual increase in afternoon and evening thunderstorms
through late week; conditional severe storm risk Thursday PM
* More humid with rounds of rain showers and locally heavy
thunderstorm downpours through Father`s Day weekend

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
All is well. More cirrus moving in, but no substantial changes
are in store with the late evening update.

Prev...
Only a patch of cirrus moving across the round state ("hi" in
the middle) toward the best state. That shouldn`t have an effect
on the temps. Dewpoints fairly dry, and without rain earlier,
we probably won`t experience any valley fog tonight. But, the
dewpoints are slated to rise into the 60s on Thurs across most
of the CWA, except over the far nrn tier of counties as the
boundary gets into northern PA and lies west to east.

Prev...
18UTC visible satellite loop shows smoke has shifted along and
southeast of I95, so we removed the haze from the fcst. We also
increased sky cover a bit this afternoon based on the fair wx cu
field (greatest coverage from the Coal Region into the
Poconos/northeast PA). Cu crumbles through sunset with mainly
clear skies tonight with low temps +5-10F above climo/warmer
than last night (this morning) in the 60-65F range. There is not
much of a fog signal overnight, but we wouldn`t rule some in a
few spots with light wind and dewpoints starting to tick higher.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly sunny on Thursday with max temps peaking for the week in
the 80-90F range.

We are monitoring a possible increase in severe storm probs for
Thursday afternoon and evening; we spoke with the SPC concerning
a categorical upgrade to MRGL (level 1) severe storm risk. The
last 2 runs of the HREF indicate moderate destablization
overlapping with favorable deep layer shear on the southern
periphery of stronger west-northwest flow aloft. Limiting
factors at this stage include displacement of best lift (well to
the north) and weak convergence along the southward moving cold
front - which reduces confidence to some extent. We would
anticipate at least a MRGL risk on day 1 if a stronger signal
for robust development emerges with time.

PWATs continue to trend higher into Friday ~1.5" with a good
signal for scattered showers and storms particularly across
south central PA into the Susquehanna Valley. Cloud cover and
weak low passing by to the southeast could limit instability
over most of the area with the synoptic setup favoring some
locally heavy/slow moving downpours. Cloudy and foggy conditions
expected Friday night with some scattered rain showers hanging
around into Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
10 PM Update...
Rainy period for the long term with a constant string of waves
coming out of the plains and lower OH Valley. Zonal flow just
north of the state, but a wavy pattern for the southern states.
Being on the northern edge of these waves near a frontal
boundary could spell trouble in the form of heavy rain due to
the repeated SHRA/TSRA, but the moisture feed seems to not be as
deep as it could be with the west to east ridge poking into FL.

Prev...
Heavy rain/FF threat appears to peak on Saturday with better
large scale forcing and sustained high pwat/unstable environment.
WPC has the entire area in a MRGL risk ERO for D4. We still
don`t think it will be raining all day, but frequent intervals
of showers with some slower moving heavy t-storm downpours are
likely to impact parts of CPA. It appears the +RA risk shifts a
little farther south on Sunday with core upper level energy and
sfc low pressure passing through the central Appalachians into
VA/NC. This pattern evolution with more of an moist east to
southeast flow leads to a cloudy/cooler start to next week
before max temps trend higher back into the upper 70s to mid 80s
by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conds likely to continue tonight under high pressure.
Marginal LLWS is expected across the northern airfields (BFD,
UNV, IPT) mainly between 03z and 12z as W to NW flow at 2000 ft
increases to 35-40 kts with the approach of a weak cold front.

The cold front could provide enough convergence to act as an
initiating boundary for isolated convection Thu afternoon and
evening, but the chc of restrictions at any given TAF site is
sub 30 pct, so it has been left out of the TAFs for now. Max chc
for SHRA/TSRA will be north of Harrisburg.

Outlook...

Fri...Scattered showers & storms.

Sat-Mon...Showers & storms from time to time, least
likely during the early part of each day.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin/Colbert

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