Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

916
FXUS61 KCTP 161854
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
154 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Dense fog has dissipated, but low clouds remain stubborn
across parts of central PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter this week

2) Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night and Friday

3) Mixed/wintry precipitation potential for late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter
this week

Following one of the coldest first 2 weeks of February on
record, mild weather for this time of year will be in place this
week with daily max/min temperature anomalies running 10-20
degrees above the historical average. Conditions will feel more
like early Spring than late Winter. Depending on the time of
arrival and coverage of precipitation later this week, daytime
temps may not get as quite as warm as currently forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night and
Friday

Following one of the driest first 2 weeks of February on
record, much needed periods of rainfall are likely on Wednesday
and again Thursday night into Friday. Total QPF during the mid
to late week period ranges between 0.50 to 1.00 inches with the
highest amounts shaded toward the NW portion of the fcst area.
While we do not expect the rainfall to cause flooding, the
warmer temperatures and increased flows on rivers and streams
should increase the risk of ice jams at least on the margin.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mixed/wintry precipitation potential for late
week

An overrunning/cold air damming pattern setup may be in place
for late in the week. This suggests an increased risk for mixed
and wintry precipitation which is being signaled by the latest
NBM. Details are not yet clear, but the Friday morning commute
may be impacted.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Clouds have been very slow to break up this afternoon and MVFR
or IFR ceilings are still being reported over most of the
region as of 18Z. Slow improvement is expected through the rest
of the afternoon, with cloud bases eventually rising to
borderline MVFR/VFR for all TAF sites. These improved flight
conditions will be brief as most guidance shows low clouds and
fog redeveloping overnight. This should bring IFR or LIFR
ceilings to most, if not all, of Central PA once again. The
extent of visibility restrictions is highly uncertain, but BFD,
JST, and LNS currently have the highest chance of seeing IFR
visibility tonight. That being said, there is a 40-50 percent
chance of all other TAF sites seeing visibility drop to IFR as
well.

A low pressure system passing to our north tonight will bring a
few rain showers to northern PA. While we expect most airfields
to remain dry, there is around a 15 percent chance of a brief
shower at BFD and IPT.

Outlook...

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

Thu...Dry early, then rain later in the day with
restrictions possible.

Fri...Rain with restrictions likely. Some snow may mix in over
northern PA.

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco

Forecaster's
Discussion: