Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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256 FXUS61 KCTP 150320 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1120 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Bumped snow amounts into the 0.5-0.9 inch range across the northwest mountains tonight * Slight Expansion of D3 (Monday) ENH risk (30% wind prob) into the Lower Susq Valley && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A warm front aloft will produce a quick moving band of snow north of Interstate 80 late tonight into the predawn Sunday. Generally a coating in the NW mountains, but can`t rule out a 1 inch report. 2) After a lull tonight and early Sunday, gusty winds return Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon or early evening. 3) Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply colder temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some snow possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front aloft will produce a quick moving band of snow north of Interstate 80 late tonight into the predawn Sunday. Generally a coating in the NW mountains, but can`t rule out a 1 inch report. At 11 PM Sat, radar was picking up on virga across eastern PA and much of PA with some east-west banding depicted between 5000 and 7000 feet AGL. This banding is on the leading edge of warm advection aloft. Between late tonight and early Sunday morning, hires guidance depicts 850-700 hPa frontogenesis in this area of warm advection (stronger to the west), as the temperature gradient tightens into a more well defined warm front ahead of the same system that will drive a strong cold front through the region on Monday. Both the 00z NAM and HRRR show an area of 0.5-1.0" of snow falling in a few hours (mostly 3A-6A Sun) across the northwest. Favored these numbers over lower NBM guidance given the forcing. Either way, impacts are expected to be minimal with accumulation of an inch or less falling while most people are asleep. KEY MESSAGE 2: After a lull tonight and early Sunday, gusty winds return Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon or early evening. By mid to late afternoon Sunday, as a high pressure ridge axis shifts offshore and a significant storm tracks from the Plains towards the Upper Midwest, a return S-SE flow will start to increase across PA. As this occurs, we also expect lower stratus clouds to begin to overspread much of the region, along with periods of light rain and drizzle Sunday night. Monday continues to be a period of high focus, as model consensus zeroes in on the potential for significant convective development. At this early juncture, confidence is quite high on the synoptic-scale evolution (the approach of a negatively tilted upper-trough, an associated sharp cold front, and impressively strong wind fields at all levels). More uncertainty still has to be dealt with, though, in terms of smaller-scale factors, such as: exact timing of the cold frontal passage, potential for a pre-frontal trough, whether any breaks develop in the overcast conditions that should prevail to start the day (which would enhance instability)?, and convective mode (will any discrete cells form ahead of a probable intense squall line?). Bottom line, though, ultimately we have increasing levels of confidence in high wind producing thunderstorms Monday afternoon, with the best potential for damaging gusts and tornadoes near and south of I-80, as well as east of I-99. Please stay tuned for later updates over the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGE 3: Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply colder temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some snow possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in. On Monday evening, once the surface cold front pushes through, colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the potential for a quick 1-3" of snow in some areas Monday night, particularly over the higher terrain and northern sections of the state. Again, this will come down to smaller details, so it is advised that you stay tuned for later forecast updates. Tuesday looks windy and much colder, with temperatures a good 25-35 degrees lower than what will be experienced on Monday (highs no better than the upper 20s-mid 30s in many locales). Wednesday should be less harsh, but still quite chilly for mid- March, with highs in the 30s-lower 40s for much of central PA. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected at most Central PA airfields through the night with the exception of BFD where light snow showers may bring a period of IFR visibility between 07Z and 10Z. LLWS will be a concern overnight and through the day on Sunday at both BFD and JST as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet moves in from the southwest. A brief period of wind shear is possible at AOO as well during the morning, before surface winds begin to increase. The low-level jet strengthens and moves eastward Sunday evening, resulting in very strong LLWS at all airfields into Monday. After a VFR start to the day, expect low clouds to gradually move in from the south during the late morning and early afternoon. MVFR ceilings will first develop at AOO, MDT, and LNS before 00Z Monday, and will reach the other sites by 03Z. Expect ceilings to lower further to IFR overnight. Outlook... Mon...Very strong LLWS will occur before a VERY strong cold fropa. Pre-frontal SHRA/TSRA with IFR possible. Then turning blustery and colder. Mon night...Snow possible (eastern terminals) behind a departing cold front with MVFR/IFR restrictions across much of Central PA. Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN northwest. IFR possible at BFD and JST. Wed...Warm fropa. -SN or -RA possible northwest. Thu...Sct showers over northern PA with restrictions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Jurewicz/Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Jurewicz/Colbert DISCUSSION...Jurewicz/Colbert AVIATION...Bauco |
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