Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Pennsylvania Flood Awareness Week | March 16-20, 2026

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

478
FXUS61 KCTP 171802
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
202 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Reintroduced isolated to scattered snow showers across much of
the area today.
* Additional details about conditional threat for flash freeze
on area roadways this afternoon.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Continued blustery with occasional snow showers today over
Central PA. A few locally heavier squalls are also expected
this afternoon.

2) An active but generally dry weather pattern ensues for the
second half of the week with a gradual warm up into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued blustery with occasional snow showers today over
Central PA. A few locally heavier squalls are also expected
this afternoon.

A strong upper trough and embedded shortwave will continue to
generate scattered to numerous snow showers today across Central
PA. Steep low level lapse rates lend to high confidence in
periods of snow for much of the area. Instability will continue
to increase this afternoon, despite temperatures staying quite
cold (highs in the 20s in the north & Laurels, mid 30s
southeast). While temps will be unfavorable for snow to stick
in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, subfreezing temperatures
likely persist for most locations north and west of I-81 and a
coating to two inches of additional accumulation is possible
this afternoon (most spots will see less than 1 inch).

The biggest potential concern today will be a low risk of high
impact flash freezing. The March sun angle and partly cloudy
skies means road temperatures will soar into the 40s and 50s
this afternoon. With air temperatures below freezing for most of
the area, any persistent bands of moderate snowfall on high-
speed interstates could pose a risk of flash freeze (snow melts
on contact with the warm road surface and then refreezes as the
road cools to the air temperature). Thus far (through 130PM),
we`ve seen multiple road weather stations drop ~20F degrees as
snow showers/squalls moved across, but the duration of snow was
not long enough to create a flash freeze (minimum road temp only
got into the mid 30s).

Most hi-res guidance depicts scattered snow showers persisting
through dinner time tonight and the current Special Weather
Statement remains in effect until 6PM. Snow shower activity will
wane after sunset as winds also taper off.

KEY MESSAGE 2: An active but generally dry weather pattern
ensues for the second half of the week with a gradual warm up
into the weekend.

Heights rise tonight, but the general/broad upper trough sticks
just to our west until Wed night. A bit of WAA late Wed and
early Thurs could make --SN over the wrn hills, but only o/o of
1" or so. PoPs are low attm, but see them rising as we get more
confidence in a very minor accum for the west.

Tues maxes will be ~15F below normal. Wed just a few degrees
milder, but still well below normals. The warm air does start
to make a noticeable difference on Thurs, with maxes popping up
~10F from Wed, getting back to normals. A moisture-deprived
Clipper moving across later Thursday/Thursday night could make a
mix of RA/SN for the N/NE, esp if a passage/timing during the
nighttime occurs, but there is a higher prob of precip being RA
in the S/SW. Amounts are expected to be very light, and are only
worth 30-40 PoPs at this range. Another shot or two of upper
energy will visit Fri/Sat. They are also lacking any decent
moisture. It will also be warmer for those potential light
precip-makers.

The warmness will only last until Sun, as a cold front should be
dropping down from the N/NW. We`ll go back 10F or so below
normals for the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18z update... Scattered to numerous snow showers will produce
periodic IFR restrictions at KBFD and KJST into early evening,
with at least some potential for similar conditions at KUNV. By
later this evening, as the snow showers diminish in coverage and
ultimately dissipate, conditions should improve to VFR.

Otherwise, largely unrestricted/VFR conditions are anticipated
through Wednesday.

Gusty surface winds out of the W-NW into early evening, will
diminish tonight, then be fairly light on Wednesday (5 kt or
less).

Outlook...

Wed... VFR.
Thu-Sun...VFR to MVFR with ocnl light rain or snow.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Jurewicz

Forecaster's
Discussion: