Isolated severe thunderstorms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are possible Monday across parts of the Southeast U.S. Elevated to critical fire weather including gusty winds and low relative humidity is forecast Monday over much of the northern Great Plains. Above normal temperatures in the Southeast and Southwest U.S. will bring moderate to isolated major HeatRisk Monday. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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502 FXUS61 KCTP 110517 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 117 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * McKean/Potter upgraded to Freeze Warning & Frost Advisory expanded to Northern Centre County tonight based on updated forecast with slight decrease in expected temperatures. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Collaborated with surrounding WFOs to post a Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning for the NW Mtns late tonight/early Monday and a Freeze Watch for the Laurels, Central and Northern Mtns Monday night/early Tuesday. 2) Energetic, northern stream system moves through mid-week with more widespread clouds occasional showers 9maybe even a few wet snow flakes on the higher ridge tops of the Laurels and Northern Mtns. 3) Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer temps for beyond day 7. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Collaborated with surrounding WFOs to post a Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning for the NW Mtns late tonight/early Monday and a Freeze Watch for the Laurels, Central and Northern Mtns Monday night/early Tuesday. A cold front will clear southeast PA overnight ushering in clearing skies. Some mid- high clouds will stream over the southern half or more of the area for tonight, but mostly clear skies are expected farther north. There could be a few patches of lower, strato cu clouds sliding into the nrn tier (at the leading edge of anomalously cooler air aloft) around daybreak, which may be just enough to limit widespread/thick frost from forming in the nrn tier tonight/Mon AM. However, it`s too close of a call to not hoist a Frost Advisory/Freeze Warning and caution growers to protect sensitive crops and flowering vegetation. Temps will cool into the low-mid 30s in the north, but only the mid 40s in the south. Some of the latest guidance indicates upper 20s lows are possible along and north of US-6 in McKean and Potter Counties. As such, we upgraded to a Freeze Warning for those counties tonight. There will be a higher frost/freeze risk for Monday night/Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies. Dewpoints will be 25-30F - just low enough to allow the temps to be able to drop, but not too dry to keep frost away. Confidence in frost is near 100 pct, but for freeze is about 49 pct. Due to increasing confidence, frost advy and freeze warnings seem likely, but will make upgrade decisions in the next couple forecast cycles. ------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 2: Energetic, northern stream system moves through mid-week with more widespread clouds occasional showers 9maybe even a few wet snow flakes on the higher ridge tops of the Laurels and Northern Mtns. A digging/compact upper low with colder temps aloft that Sunday night/Monday`s trough will drop across the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday and bring SHRA into western PA by Wednesday AM. There is a wide range of possible paths for the sfc low to take. Current guidance moves a triple point through the state sometime between Wed aftn and Thursday morning. However, model spread is high and confidence is low for details. Using a broad- brushed approach, we`ll paint categorical 80+ PoPs during the daylight Wed for everyone and lower them somewhat and slide them east for Wed night and Thursday. At this point, the WAA doesn`t look particularly strong in advance of the system. So, we`ll keep max temps rather similar (60s) for Tues-Wed-Thurs. TS returns to the forecast Wed-Wed night. However, the coolness could/should negate worries for widespread severe wx. Moisture feed is questionable with high pressure cutting off much of the potential feed from the Gulf. QPF through the mid-week period looks less than an inch total, and closer to half of an inch average area-wide. No threat for flooding. Lastly, the wet bulb zero level descends to under 2 KFT AGL across the Central and Western Mtns later Wed night and Thurs, and its not out of the question to have some wet snow flakes flying at that time (mainly 06-15Z Thu). ------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer temps for beyond day 7. Thicknesses/heights seem to rebound for the weekend. But, moisture/energy continues to come over the western/central U.S. upper ridge. Uncertainty in details (esp precip possibilities) is high as the spread in the mass fields over the weekend is rather high. Eventually, a sfc high is expected to park over Bermuda and direct warm/summery air in for next week (days 7+). && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... After many cloudy and wet days, high pressure building into the area will bring mainly dry weather to central PA into Tue, along with plenty of sunshine. While there could be a brief shower this afternoon across the north and east, the airmass is on the dry side. Thus mainly looking at high base clouds at times this afternoon, as strong May sun and abnormally cold air aloft results in some clouds. Winds will pick up a bit after late morning, but will weaken by early this evening. Outlook... Tue...VFR conditions expected with generally clear skies. Wed...Restrictions possible with showers. Thu...Lingering clouds and showers. Fri...Clearing. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-010>012- 017-018-037-041-042. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-033-037-041-042. Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ005-006. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Martin |
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