Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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969 FXUS61 KCTP 260718 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 318 AM EDT Sun Apr 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Drizzle gradually ending, but persistent low clouds and fog on the ridges remain overnight and conditions slowly improve on Sunday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Cloudy/foggy/drizzly overnight. 2) More seasonable/cooler end to what has been one of the warmest April`s to date; much below normal temperatures possible to start May along with renewed frost/freeze risk. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Cloudy/foggy/drizzly overnight. Front from the west rode right up over the cold wedge. CAD too thick and has fended off attempts to break it down. Maybe morning and mixing will help, but clearing from subsidence isn`t expected to reach most of the CWA (maybe does in the far NW) before sunrise. Precip still ahead of schedule and only low clouds and patchy drizzle expected after maybe another 2 hours. Have added mentions of fog on the higher elevations, as well. -------------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: More seasonable/cooler end to what has been one of the warmest April`s to date; much below normal temperatures to start May along with renewed frost/freeze risk. Most sites are tracking top 5-10 warmest April-to-date. The much above normal to near-record warmth over the past 3-4 weeks is expected to fizzle out through month-end with increasing confidence in below normal temperatures into early May. This late Spring setback will also feature a renewed frost/freeze risk for a growing season that started weeks in advance of the climatological/historical average. Monday will feature the best day to dry out for outside work, and temperatures near normal. More wet conditions for later Tuesday into Wednesday, as the next frontal system moves in. Things dry out for later in the week, but temperatures will be well below normal. Frost and even freeze potential for the north if not central zones. Models show signal well out into longer time frames to cutoff an upper level low over or nearby the lower Great Lakes area, keeping the colder than normal temperatures over the area. This would also support frequent chances for rain, especially across the east and south now. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A low pressure system moving across the Mid-Atlantic will maintain IFR ceilings/visibilities across the region through 12Z Sunday, with only drizzle remaining for the rest of this evening. Pockets of LIFR driven by low clouds are expected to stick around the Northern Tier (KBFD) and along the Allegheny Mountains (KJST/KAOO/KUNV) through the early morning. After 12Z Sunday, as the low pressure moves farther offshore, high pressure over Southern Canada will nose into the region and shift winds to be more northwesterly, ultimately bringing in drier continental air from the northwest. Regionwide improvements to MVFR are expected between 15Z-17Z Sunday, with improvements to VFR being likely (80% chance) after 18Z-19Z Sunday. Outlook... Mon...VFR likely. Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings lower and showers move in. Wed...Restrictions likely with rain expected regionwide. Thu...VFR/MVFR favored as rain ends west to east. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Martin/RXR KEY MESSAGES...Martin/RXR DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Martin/RXR AVIATION...Bowen/Teare |
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