Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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871 FXUS61 KCTP 101549 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1149 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Continued increasing confidence in widespread frost and freezing temperatures for Tuesday AM, but decreased confidence in frost for the north tonight/Mon AM. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A cold front, with a few rain showers along it and rainfall amounts generally just a few to several hundredths of an inch of rainfall, will slide across the Southeastern Half of the state this afternoon. Frost is possible, but not likely tonight/Monday morning across the Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania. 2) Higher frost/freeze risk for Monday night/Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies. 3) Energetic system moves through mid-week 4) Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer temps for beyond day 7. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front, with a few rain showers along it and rainfall amounts generally just a few to several hundredths of an inch of rainfall, will slide across the Southeastern Half of the state this afternoon. Frost is possible, but not likely tonight/Monday morning across the Northern Mountains of Pennsylvania. A cold front was nearly bisecting pennsylvania from Southwest to Northeast late this morning and will push to our south by late this afternoon. Some light showers along and just ahead of this front will bring a few to several hundredths of an inch of rainfall. Will likely have to adjust hourly and max temps down by up to several deg F across portions of the Middle Susq Valley and Central Mtns where a thick shield of layer clouds will persist through much of the afternoon followed by weak llvl cold advection. Clearing will occur behind the front, but mid-high clouds will stream over the southern half or more of the area for tonight. There should also be a patch of lower clouds sliding into the nrn tier for the second half of the night. That patch of clouds may be just enough to keep frost from forming in the nrn tier tonight/Mon AM. The other checkboxes will be filled in on the frost checklist with wind diminishing/calming by morning and the colder/drier airmass settling in. Confidence in frost forming in the north tonight is only about 60pct. So, we`ll hold off on issuing a frost advisory for the time being and allow further evaluation by later shifts. In any case, temps will cool into the mid 30s in the north, but only the mid 40s in the south. ------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 2: Higher frost/freeze risk for Monday night/Tuesday morning over the western and central Alleghenies. Almost a slam dunk for a widespread frost for more than half the CWA tomorrow night (N and W) - and a freeze across the nrn mtns. Dewpoints will be 25-30F - just low enough to allow the temps to be able to drop, but not too dry to keep frost away. Confidence in frost is near 100 pct, but for freeze is about 49 pct. Due to increasing confidence, frost advy and freeze warnings seem likely, but the consensus among the regional offices on this (midnight) shift was to allow at least one more forecast cycle for that to happen. ------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 3: Energetic system moves through mid-week A digging/compact upper low will drop across the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday and bring SHRA into western PA Tuesday night. There is a wide range of possible paths for the sfc low to take. Current guidance moves a triple point through the state sometime between Wed aftn and Thursday morning. However, model spread is high and confidence is low for details. Using a broad-brushed approach, we`ll paint categorical 80+ PoPs during the daylight Wed for everyone and lower them somewhat and slide them east for Wed night and Thursday. At this point, the WAA doesn`t look particularly strong in advance of the system. So, we`ll keep max temps rather similar (60s) for Tues-Wed-Thurs. TS returns to the forecast Wed-Wed night. However, the coolness could/should negate worries for widespread severe wx. Moisture feed is questionable with high pressure cutting off much of the potential feed from the Gulf. QPF through the mid-week period looks less than an inch total, and closer to half of an inch average area-wide. No threat for flooding. ------------------------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 4: Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer temps for beyond day 7. Thicknesses/heights seem to rebound for the weekend. But, moisture/energy continues to come over the western/central U.S. upper ridge. Uncertainty in details (esp precip possibilities) is high as the spread in the mass fields over the weekend is rather high. Eventually, a sfc high is expected to park over Bermuda and direct warm/summery air in for next week (days 7+). && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A swath of layered low/mid level clouds with areas of MVFR CIGS and brief MVFR Vsbys in -shra will occur across the SE half or so of state this afternoon as a cold front advances to the southeast. MVFR CIGS will likely linger through early this evening at KJST as the shallow cooler/moist air is orographically lifted/saturated across the ridges of the Laurel Highlands. Conditions will be MVFR in all areas before midnight. Light west winds in the east will veer around to the northwest with the passage of the cold front. NW Winds elsewhere this afternoon will have minor gusts into the mid teens. Wet by Wednesday with lower conditions again. Outlook... Mon-Tue...VFR conditions expected to prevail. Wed...Restrictions possible with rain. Thu...Lingering clouds and showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Lambert/Martin |
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