Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

788
FXUS61 KCTP 191208
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
708 AM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Dense Fog Advisory expanded into the Lower Susquehanna Valley

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cloudy and foggy today with rain spreading south to north by
tonight; elevated ice jam risk continues into the weekend

2) Mixed/wintry precip remains possible overnight into Friday
morning across the higher terrain of north/east central PA

3) Reminder that it`s still winter with potential for
accumulating snow Sunday followed by a brief cold spell with
brisk winds Monday and Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cloudy and foggy today with rain spreading south
to north by tonight; elevated ice jam risk continues into the
weekend

Low clouds and fog will be prevalent again today as CAD pattern
sets up across CPA. This will again introduce several degrees
of downside risk daytime max temps.

Downstream of strengthening surface low tracking from Kansas to
Lake Michigan, surging WAA on 850mb SW flow will send plume of
high pwats and accompanying light to moderate precip from south
to north later today/tonight into Friday. Forecast rainfall
totals are in the 0.25-0.75" range through 00Z Saturday.

With the expected rainfall and ongoing snowmelt through the end
of the week, the risk of ice jams will remain elevated.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mixed/wintry precip remains possible overnight
into Friday morning across the higher terrain of north/east
central PA

The location and orientation of the retreating banana high
appears only marginally conducive for wintry precip later
tonight into Friday morning. The higher terrain ridges over the
northern and eastern portions of the forecast area remain most
susceptible for mixed precip. The latest ptype output suggests
more of a mixed precip evolution (rain/sleet/snow) with sfc
temps largely above the freezing at the onset. Freezing rain is
still possible, but coverage should be limited with the best
odds for an ice glaze =>0.01" over the interior north central
mtns in Potter/N. Lycoming and Tioga Counties as well as along
the northeast periphery of the CWA in higher elevations of
Sullivan and Schuylkill Counties. The marginal boundary layer
thermal profiles and weak/retreating position of the high
suggests any wintry precip may be relatively short-lived and
provide limited/low impact having difficulty accumulating on
roads. We will the allow dayshift to assess the setup one more
time and make a final call on a winter wx advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Reminder that it`s still winter with potential for
accumulating snow Sunday followed by a brief cold spell with
brisk winds Monday and Tuesday

There remains a strong potential for a low pressure system off
the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday intensifying into a nor`easter by
Monday. However, the track of the low remains uncertain with
plenty of variability in the model guidance. The ECMWF and the
UKMET remain farther south and offshore as it exits the coast,
whereas the GFS is closest and has the greatest impacts to the
Mid-Atlantic region. Low confidence forecast with northern and
southern stream phasing differences still to be resolved. It
seems that even with a more suppressed and eastward track, the
associated upper trough and inverted trough axis may be able to
provide sufficient forcing/lift to produce a broad area of
accumulating snow. This will continue to be monitored closely.

Confidence is much higher in a reality check back to winter
temperatures as a brisk northerly wind behind the departing
nor`reaster directs a much colder Canadian airmass back into the
region. Max temps on Monday and Tuesday will be 5 to 15 degrees
below the historical average. The cold spell won`t last long
with a moderating trend commencing through midweek as low level
winds turn more southwesterly.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low stratus clouds and dense fog was found on the cool side of
a sinuous stationary surface frontal boundary that extended from
near KBFD to KFIG, KAOO and KCBE at 11Z. Widespread IFR through
VLIFR conditions were noted in this shallow/moist cool airmass.

On the warm western side of this front, more in the way of high
based, generally MVFR to VFR clouds were found.

Some slight improvement in these conditions will occur late
this morning and this afternoon, but most airfields will be
IFR to low-end MVFR w/respect to CIGS and MVFR based on VSBYS.

For this Thursday afternoon, some parts of south central PA
have a very low probability of observing thunder followed by a
shield of rain moving northeast across much of the SW half of PA
by mid evening, and overspread the rest of Ncent and NE PA later
this evening and overnight.

Though probabilities for TSRA were low enough to keep out of
TAFs. Some elevated instability will be present, but overall
confidence is low for thunder reaching the airspace.

Conditions lower again tonight with widespread IFR CIGS and
VSBYS and periods of rain and drizzle.

Outlook...

Fri...Rain with restrictions likely. Some snow may mix in over
northern PA.

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.

Sun...Potential for restrictions in snow showers.

Mon...Potential for restrictions in snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert

Forecaster's
Discussion: