Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

News Headlines

Summer and Fall 2026 Student Volunteer Applications Due March 15th

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

394
FXUS61 KCTP 051133
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
633 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Dense Fog Advisory (DFA) expanded to include remainder of the
Mid Susquehanna Valley and extended end time to 7AM/1200UTC

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of dense fog/low visibility could make driving
conditions hazardous early this morning

2) Periods of beneficial rainfall precede the first severe
weather risk of 2026 into the first weekend of March

3) Warmest temperatures since late Fall 2025 poised to arrive
Saturday and early next week prior to modest to seasonable cool
down into mid-month

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of dense fog/low visibility could make
driving conditions hazardous early this morning

ASOS/AWOS/RWIS observations showing marginal improvement in
visibility coincident with the onset of light/moderate rain.
Expect fog to become more locally dense than widespread through
12Z with visby below 500ft in some spots.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of beneficial rainfall precede the first
severe weather risk of 2026 into the first weekend of March

On the heels of one of the driest winters on record, periods of
beneficial rain (primarily thought tonight, but also on
Saturday) are expected to bring some relief/marginal improvement
particularly to D1-D2 drought conditions in central and eastern
PA. Forecast rainfall totals over the next 24hrs ending 7AM
Friday will range between 0.75-1.50 inches.

The first marginal and slight risk convective outlooks of 2026
including a portion of CPA have been issued by SPC for Saturday
March 7th. The greatest tstm wind-damage threat will likely
be in the late afternoon in the warm sector across western PA
as a low-level jet consolidates and strengthens across the
upper Ohio Valley. Increasingly limited instability with eastern
extent should reduce the threat into the eastern portion of the
Commonwealth.

Frontal showers crossing CPA into Saturday night should exit
the CWA by Sunday morning - followed by 2-day stretch of dry wx
lasting at least through next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmest temperatures since late Fall 2025 poised
to arrive Saturday and early next week prior to modest to
seasonable cool down into mid-month

The infamous, temp-busting cold air damming pattern (complete
with plenty of low clouds and periods of rain/drizzle) Thu & Fri
will delay the arrival of April to May-like temps until
Saturday with a resurgence of mid Spring warmth projected to
ramp up next Monday into Wednesday. Temps will take a modest dip
on Sunday behind a cold front with a more pronounced/relative
(reverting closer to climo) cool down forecast by the end of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions continue this morning as an area
of rain continues to push eastwards across Central PA. A
relative minimum in the coverage of rain is expected later this
morning, but IFR conditions should continue over most of the
region. The exception may be at JST and AOO, where a lot of the
guidance suggests a period of MVFR or VFR may occur. That being
said, the LAMP continues to show persistent IFR at those two
sites as well and the current forecast leans closer to that
solution.

Additional rounds of steady rainfall will move through the area
this afternoon and evening. Some thunder cannot be ruled out at
JST and AOO as weak elevated instability develops, but
confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF yet.
Expect another night of IFR conditions at all TAF sites.

Outlook...

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible,
especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and
east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds
could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

Mon...Restrictions possible as low-level moisture increases.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for PAZ006-012-
018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco

Forecaster's
Discussion: