Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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173 FXUS61 KCTP 100944 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 544 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Added chance showers/t-showers across central and northwest zones this afternoon and evening * Discussed conditional threat for tornadoes tomorrow (Wed) && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Spring-like weather continues through tomorrow with temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday. 2) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes. 3) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week and weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Spring-like weather continues through tomorrow with temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday. As heights continue to build over the eastern U.S. Tue-Wed, temps in central PA may challenge daily records as they surge +20-30 degrees above the historical average. With highs in the upper 60s-70s and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more like an average day in mid May than mid March. See the climate section for more information on possible records. Clouds will be on the increase through the day as moisture advects in from the west. In some places, dewpoints are progged to increase 20-30 degrees in just 6 hours between morning and afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/thundershowers are possible this afternoon and evening during the peak of diurnal heating, with increased sfc moisture and modest lapse rates aloft creating just enough instability for convection. KEY MESSAGE 2: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes. A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night into Thursday, as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front, numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated during the daytime and evening on Wednesday. The SPC Day 2 (Wednesday) Slight Risk area now includes practically all of central PA, an expansion vs yesterday`s D3 Slight Risk. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the extent to which destabilization can occur on Wed, especially with quite a bit of cloud cover in the forecast and morning shower activity. Most likely scenario is 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across portions of central PA, highest from I-80 southward. With winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the ground. In contrast with the system over this past weekend, there will be more shower activity during the day on Wednesday but also a more moist airmass in place before storms arrive, and no cool air damming signal over east central PA. Given the very strong low level winds and Gulf moisture connection, the resultant 850 mb moisture flux is progged to be about as strong as it can be this time of year across western PA. While damaging straight line winds will be the primary threat with Wednesday`s convection, the SPC D2 outlook also includes CIG1 hatching over the Laurel Highlands and western PA, meaning the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do develop in that area on Wed, they could be strong. KEY MESSAGE 3: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week and weekend. As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to snow Wed night into Thu. Gusty winds will also accompany the system, with gusts of 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday. Trending toward the longwave pattern that we saw most of the winter, with cooler conditions on the east coast. Weather systems will be moving fast so a lot of day to day variation likely. Periodic shortwaves in the prevailing upper level pattern will lead to chances for precipitation as well as strong winds every few days from this weekend into early next week. At this point, the storm track favors the primary corridor of precipitation passing north of the area. With overnight lows within a few degrees of the freezing mark forecasted, precipitation type will be largely dependent on what time of day it moves through. But as of this time, no significant systems or appreciable precipitation are expected. && .AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 06z update... A cloud mass pushing into northwest PA early this morning (on the leading edge of strong moisture advection) is expected to bring the onset of MVFR restrictions at KBFD. We expect these cloud bases to elevate slightly this afternoon, with largely VFR conditions anticipated at KBFD by 16-18z. Also, with the wind flow just above the boundary layer already notably increasing early this morning along the Alleghenies, a period of LLWS is expected at both KBFD and KJST. Although not strictly mentioned in the terminal forecast, the combination of approaching maritime moisture from the Delmarva coast and optimal radiating conditions will produce a low (10-20%), but non-zero probability of fog at KLNS early this morning. We`ll watch this situation closely. Elsewhere through the daylight hours today, unrestricted/VFR conditions are anticipated. This evening, with strong moisture advection continuing across western and northern PA especially, lower ceilings will become more widespread in these areas. There is reasonably high confidence (50-70%) in the onset of IFR conditions at KBFD, with less confidence at KJST (only 20-30%). Outlook... Wed-Wed night...Restrictions likely in more numerous showers and some thunder. Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers, with restrictions possible. Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow showers most likely at KBFD and KJST. && .CLIMATE... Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s. RECORD TEMPERATURES TUE 3/10 WED 3/11 MAX T MIN T MAX T Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025) Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025) Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021) State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986) Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert AVIATION...Jurewicz CLIMATE...Banghoff |
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