Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

251
FXUS61 KCTP 020251
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1051 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Frost Advisory expanded one row of counties eastward early
Friday evening

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and unsettled pattern to start May with shower chances
and a frost/freeze risk each night through the weekend, mainly
across Central and Northern PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool and unsettled pattern to start May with
shower chances and frost/freeze risk each night through the
weekend, mainly across Central and Northern PA.

Several disturbances rotating around a broad, persistent upper
level closed low centered over Ontario and Quebec will help to
reinforce broadly deep troughing across the eastern U.S. through
much of next week. This pattern will keep conditions cool and
unsettled at times as multiple frontal systems move through. In
addition to shower chances, the fronts will bring reinforcing
surges of cool air, keeping temperatures near to below seasonal
averages.

The first of these disturbances aloft and weak low pressure at
the surface lift out of PA later tonight, bringing an end to the
light to moderate showers we have seen over the past several
hours. As drier air moves in and skies at least partially clear,
light winds will likely allow for frost and freeze conditions
to develop. We have issued Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories
for roughly the northwestern two-thirds of the forecast area
that are in effect from midnight through 9 am Sunday. There
could also be patchy fog given the wet ground.

The lowest temperatures of this current cool spell will be
Saturday night and early Sunday with frost or freeze conditions
across all of the CWA except for more patchy coverage in the
Lower Susquehanna Valley and adjacent South-Central Counties of
PA where low temps will be in the mid-upper 30s. There is still
some uncertainty regarding the southeastward extent of frost as
there will be a rather tight pressure gradient across the region
due to a developing area of low pressure off of the coast.

Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week, but
all guidance indicates that unsettled weather will continue with
multiple chances for rain next week, with the highest PoPs Wed-
Thu. Latest guidance also suggests a potential return of
frost/freeze conditions by Thursday and Friday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Main area of light rain sliding eastward into the Susq Valley
late this evening as an upper level wave and attendant weak
surface frontal boundary slide across PA. Behind that, scattered
showers persist with generally MVFR ceilings through the next
several hours, dipping to IFR at BFD/JST. Then clouds begin to
clear out toward sunrise, which may lead to patchy fog given wet
ground and light winds.

Winds will shift from a prevailing southwesterly flow to a more
northwesterly one across the state by daybreak. Prevailing
winds will mostly be in the single digits (5-10 kts) with some
scattered gusts in the teens possible (10-15 kts). After
daybreak tomorrow across most TAF sites, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail. JST may have the most trouble removing low
level clouds into the morning.

Outlook...

Sat PM...Restrictions possible in SCT PM -SHRA.

Sun...SHRA moves in late; otherwise, VFR expected.

Mon...SHRA potential increases during PM hours, some TSRA
possible across N/W PA. Restrictions possible.

Tue...SHRA becomes more widespread, TSRA chances expand across
much of central PA. Restrictions possible.

Wed...Scattered SHRA remain. Restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ004>006-010>012-
017-018-024-033-037.
Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ019-025>028-
034>036-041-042-045-046-049-050-056.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...RXR

Forecaster's
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