Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

222
FXUS61 KCTP 130835
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
435 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of rapid
wildfire spread may be need again for late this morning and
this afternoon across Southern PA.

* Increased wind gusts by a few knots for this afternoon and
Tuesday afternoon as a few upper level disturbance as associated
LLVL wind maxes move across New York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across
southern PA once again today.

2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues
through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and
Thursday.

3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during
the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely
occurring across northern and western PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused
across southern PA once again today.

Notably warmer temps and higher dewpoints (relative to early
Sunday morning) have advected NE into the Commonwealth with a
large amount of cloud cover aiding in the milder overnight
readings.

A low to mid level wind max moves across the region today with
the highest 850 mb wind speeds of 55-60 kts occurring over the
Northern Mtns of PA between 12-15Z. This wind max and a sfc warm
front lifting across the CWA will help to generate a few (mainly
brief and light showers) that will move quickly east across the
area this morning.

Afterward, subtle/flat ridging aloft and low-mid level speed
divergence will lead to a significant lull in the showers for
the afternoon, with warm temps and a gusty SW wind in the mid
20s to low 30s (KTS). Min RHs in the 30s (Percent) will occur
across the South (where the worst drought conditions and driest
fine fuels persist). Although Min RHs will be nearly 10 percent
higher than Sunday, the other elements will still be conducive
to rapid fire spread where ignition occurs.

A Special Weather Statement will be issued once again for much
of the southern third of the CWA.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the
week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty
southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer
than normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good
agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western
CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf
states up the eastern seaboard.

This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs
ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday
onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the
region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows
both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than
our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30
deg F above normal).

Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and
60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will
feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms
expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and
west.

In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run
from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low
pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set
up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled
weather in place across northwest PA in particular.

LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning,
keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally
north/west of the region today.

For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over
much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as
a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the
state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence
noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of
an upper level jet max.

If you have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the
forecast - no need to cancel anything yet!

The prob for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA.
Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more
rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast
part of our CWA will see less rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for all central PA airfields
through the rest of the night under increasing mid and high
level clouds. Model soundings from the RAP and HRRR continue to
suggest the potential for patchy fog or low clouds to form near
MDT and LNS prior to sunrise, but confidence remains too low to
include any restrictions in the TAFs. Low level wind shear will
remain a concern into the morning as a 40 to 50 knot low-level
jet traverses the region.

Ceilings will lower to MVFR at BFD this morning as light rain
moves in from the west. These showers will weaken/dissipate with
eastward extent as they move into a drier air mass. Ceilings
should return to VFR at BFD behind these showers. Winds increase
during the late morning/early afternoon, with gusts between 20
and 30 knots likely.

Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this
afternoon, but confidence is low on where they actually set up.
Some models suggest that the focus will largely be to the north
of UNV, while other models, particularly the HRRR and RRFS,
indicate that the majority of the showers and storms may be to
the south. PROB30s for -SHRA have been included at all TAF sites
for now due to the lingering uncertainty, but this will need to
be refined with future TAF issuances.

Low clouds should develop once again at BFD after 00Z, with
ceilings likely falling to MVFR. Brief periods of IFR are
possible as well. The rest of the TAF sites should see VFR
conditions continue with decreasing low-level cloud cover. Winds
will decrease to around 10 knots after sunset.

Outlook...

Tue-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible
in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
north and west.

Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Bauco

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