Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

694
FXUS61 KCTP 100933
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
533 AM EDT Sun May 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Continued increasing confidence in widespread frost and
freezing temperatures for Tuesday AM, but decreased
confidence in frost for the north tonight/Mon AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Rain will sink to the south this morning, and leave a mostly
dry late morning and afternoon. Frost is possible, but not
likely tonight/Monday morning.

2) Frost/freeze risk Monday night/Tuesday morning over the
western and central Alleghenies

3) Energetic system moves through mid-week

4) Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer temps for
beyond day 7.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain will sink to the south this morning, and
leave a mostly dry late morning and afternoon. Frost is
possible, but not likely tonight/Monday morning.

Showers moving through the CWA this morning will continue to
fragment further. Weak cold front will push the showers off to
the south this morning. Showers will probably redevelop in the
afternoon with the fropa over the SE third of the area. TS is
still possible in the far SE this aftn, but a 20 PoP might be
overdoing it due to limited CAPE. By noon, the dewpoints will
be into the 30s in the NW and this drying will continue to
expand SE in the aftn as the new airmass moves in.

Clearing will occur behind the front, but mid-high clouds will
stream over the southern half or more of the area for tonight.
There should also be a patch of lower clouds sliding into the
nrn tier for the second half of the night. That patch of clouds
may be just enough to keep frost from forming in the nrn tier
tonight/Mon AM. The other checkboxes will be filled in on the
frost checklist with wind diminishing/calming by morning and the
colder/drier airmass settling in. Confidence in frost forming in
the north tonight is only about 60pct. So, we`ll hold off on
issuing a frost advisory for the time being and allow further
evaluation by later shifts. In any case, temps will cool into
the mid 30s in the north, but only the mid 40s in the south.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze risk Monday night/Tuesday morning
over the western and central Alleghenies

Almost a slam dunk for a widespread frost for more than half the
CWA tomorrow night (N and W) - and a freeze in the nrn mtns.
Dewpoints will be 25-30F - just low enough to allow the temps to
be able to drop, but not too dry to keep frost away. Confidence
in frost is near 100 pct, but for freeze is about 49 pct. Due
to increasing confidence, frost advy and freeze warnings seem
likely, but the consensus among the regional offices on this
(midnight) shift was to allow at least one more forecast cycle
for that to happen.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Energetic system moves through mid-week

A digging/compact upper low will drop across the Upper Great
Lakes Tuesday and bring SHRA into western PA Tuesday night.
There is a wide range of possible paths for the sfc low to take.
Current guidance moves a triple point through the state sometime
between Wed aftn and Thursday morning. However, model spread is
high and confidence is low for details. Using a broadbrushed
approach, we`ll paint categorical 80+ PoPs during the daylight
Wed for everyone and lower them somewhat and slide them east for
Wed night and Thursday. At this point, the WAA doesn`t look
particularly strong in advance of the system. So, we`ll keep
max temps rather similar (60s) for Tues-Wed-Thurs. TS returns to
the forecast Wed-Wed night. However, the coolness could/should
negate worries for widespread severe wx. Moisture feed is
questionable with high pressure cutting off much of the
potential feed from the Gulf. QPF through the mid-week period
looks less than an inch total, and closer to half of an inch
average area-wide. No threat for flooding.

------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 4: Warmup for the weekend? More certain is warmer
temps for beyond day 7.

Thicknesses/heights seem to rebound for the weekend. But,
moisture/energy continues to come over the western/central U.S.
upper ridge. Uncertainty in details (esp precip possibilities)
is high as the spread in the mass fields over the weekend is
rather high. Eventually, a sfc high is expected to park over
Bermuda and direct warm/summery air in for next week (days 7+).

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Just a few more hours of showers, then clearing with lots
of sun today. Conditions should trend up today, as the
showers move out of the area.

LNS had dense fog and low CIGS early on, then the winds shifted
more to the west and the fog went away. Now the winds are nearly
calm, with some fog, but also a mid deck. Also IPT has some
lower CIGS but a mid deck as well.

Anyway, expect conditions to improve quickly today.

Wet by Wednesday with lower conditions again.

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR conditions expected to prevail.

Wed...Restrictions possible with rain.

Thu...Lingering clouds and showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Martin

Forecaster's
Discussion: