Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

260
FXUS61 KCTP 130033
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
833 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The wind advisory has been expanded into McKean County.
* Placed up to 2 inches of snow across the northern tier Fri-
Fri night due to the Clipper.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) The deep low pressure of an unusually strong Alberta Clipper
will pass to our north on Friday and Friday night. Expect
strong winds Friday afternoon and evening for most of Central
PA, and a coating of snow for the northern mountains.

2) A warm front on Sunday will bring warmer and more humid air
that will linger into early Monday before a strong cold front
brings a period of rain Monday followed by colder, drier air
and gusty winds again late Monday into Tuesday.

3) Potential for another round of strong winds again Monday
into next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: The deep low pressure of an unusually strong
Alberta Clipper will pass to our north on Friday and Friday
night. Expect strong winds Friday afternoon and evening for most
of Central PA, and a coating of snow for the northern
mountains.

After consultation with BUF, we`ve expanded the wind advisory
for tomorrow/night into McKean County. It might be tough to
squeeze out gusts of 50 MPH over the rest of the nrn tier and
central mountains. Probabilities are fairly low for 45+MPH
gusts north, but a certainty (80-100%) for the Laurels,
Clearfield and nrn Centre Co. The strongest winds/gusts for the
nrn tier may not occur until a little later in the evening and
through the nighttime hours (later than the Laurels/rest of the
area as the system departs.

The Clipper will make some snow across the nrn tier, too. HREF
probabilities are high for - and many deterministic models drop
1-2 inches of snowfall over the northern two tiers of zones. The
temps during the middle of the day and the amount of sun
received before-hand in the central mtns will have a big say in
how much can actually stick. Temps are most favorable across the
north, and especially in the AM and again after the cold front
passes (lake effect) for snow to build up in the north. Again,
1-2" amounts are most likely for the top tier of PA, and T-1"
for the other counties down south to the I-80 corridor. Happy
Valley may get a slushy coat of less then half of an inch, but
melting and vert temp profiles indicate a mix or even just rain
in the aftn here, locally.

Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s Friday night into early
Saturday, a big change from the recent warm weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A warm front on Sunday will bring warmer and
more humid air that will linger into early Monday before a
strong cold front brings a period of rain Monday followed by
colder, drier air and gusty winds again late Monday into
Tuesday.

Guidance favors a Great Lakes Cutter track for the next system
Sunday into Monday. This would result in a corridor of warmer
air pushing in ahead of the system, with highs rising back into
the upper 40s and 50s Sunday, and perhaps even the low 60s to
start the day Monday. Very strong winds are likely on Monday-Mon
night, too, due to the very tight pressure gradient. Much
colder air pushes back in behind the cold front later Monday
with cold temps sticking around into the middle of next week.
Latest NBM guidance shows highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on
Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees below average. A return to near
normal maxes appears likely on Thursday/Fri.

KEY MESSAGE 3: While the airmass for Monday not likely to
be as unstable as what we just had yesterday (Wed) the
combination of very strong dynamics and a deep low tracking
to our north and west, would expect some strong wind gust next
Monday, lingering into Tuesday, as abnormally cold air is
advected southward into central PA, behind the cold front,
as noted in the section above.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Gusty winds will gradually decrease through the evening and
skies will clear out, providing VFR conditions across the region
into Friday morning. Mid and high clouds associated with a
clipper system move in from the west just before sunrise and
will spread eastward through the morning. The warm front
associated with this system will track through the region during
the late morning and early afternoon, bringing light snow
showers to BFD and IPT. Model RH profiles from the RAP and NAM
suggest MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely at BFD as these
snow showers move through, though the LAMP continues to show IFR
conditions developing. This appears to be an outlier.
Additional rain and snow showers are expected ahead of a cold
front during the late afternoon and evening. These appear more
likely to result in IFR restrictions at BFD. All other sites
should remain VFR, though IPT may see ceilings drop to MVFR late
in the 00Z TAF period.

Wind gusts increase through the morning as a very tight
pressure gradient sets up across Central PA. Winds out of the
south- southwest will gust as high as 40 to 45 knots at BFD,
JST, and AOO, while all other sites will see gusts in the 25 to
35 knot range. LLWS concerns develop by 00Z Saturday at MDT and
LNS as the surface winds decrease slightly and winds 2000 feet
above the surface remain in the 40 to 50 knot range. Surface
winds at all other TAF sites will remain too high through the
end of the 00Z TAF period to include LLWS for now, but wind
shear may be a concern farther to the north and west Friday
night into Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Sat...Becoming VFR.

Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of
PA. Restrictions possible.

Mon...Cold frontal passage. Pre-frontal SHRA/TSRA with IFR
possible. Then turning blustery and colder. Post-frontal IFR or
low-MVFR cigs expected (90%) across the west, and IFR possible
N/W (60%).

Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN NW. IFR poss (40%).

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
The KCCX is back up as of late afternoon work is done for the
day.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 2 AM EDT Saturday for
PAZ004-005-010-017-018-024-025-033-034.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert/Martin
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert/Martin
AVIATION...Bauco
EQUIPMENT...Martin

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