Active Spring Like Pattern Across the Eastern Half of the Country

The second storm will track across central and eastern portion of the country this weekend. Heavy wintry precipitation will affect the northern Plains to the upper peninsula of Michigan. Severe thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the cold front, where very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible from the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys to southern Plains. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

127
FXUS61 KCTP 040652
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
252 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Confidence for a non-diurnal temp trend on Sunday is high.
* Added mentions of gusty winds/small hail to the thunderstorms
on Sat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures near record levels on Saturday, mainly in the
south, ahead of a strong cold front which will pass through on
Easter morning.

2) Colder next week but warming up again by week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures near record levels on Saturday,
mainly in the south, ahead of a strong cold front which will
pass through on Easter morning.

A weak trough/front over the area tonight will move northward
and allow much warmer air in for Saturday. Maxes in the 70s N
and 80-85F S. Clouds in the morning will mix away before popping
up in another life in the afternoon heating. Shear of 30KTs or
so in the north and 20 in the south, but CAPE progged in the S
will beat that up north. Scattered thunderstorms may develop
ahead of the approaching cold front and could produce damaging
winds or a tornado. SPC upgraded northwest PA to a Slight Risk
for Saturday and that risk may need to be expanded eastward if
confidence in prefrontal development in the Susquehanna Valley
continues to increase.

The warm air will linger into the nighttime. But, by Sunday
morning, a strong cold front will be crossing the CWA from NW-
SE. The precip along the front will still have some
instability, so we left mentions of thunder in there. Temps on
Easter Sunday will be headed downward, losing 6-8F through the
whole day. Not a terrible rate, especially when it starts out
very mild (in the SE half). The band of rain/showers along the
front should be off to the SE of the CWA in the afternoon. Hold
onto your bonnets, as there will be some gusts into the 20s as
the cold air moves in. Lows Sunday night U20s N, U30s S.

---------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Colder next week but warming up again by week`s
end.

From a precipitation perspective, scattered rain and/or snow
showers are possible Monday and Tuesday. A trough crossing the
Great Lakes will slide across PA during the Monday-Tuesday time
frame and should generate some SHSN. Temps will only be
favorable for an accumulation during the overnight periods.
Tuesday will be the coldest day with maxes not out of the 30s in
the nrn tier counties and only near 50F in the far S. Wednesday
morning will be the coldest under high pressure with mins below
freezing everywhere. This will occur about 3 days before the
climatological average date of the last freeze, so we`ll be
right on track. Thursday morning could be that cold, too, but
that depends on just how fast the high slides to the east. For
now, we`ll hang with the NBM/WPC guidance mins then (30s). The
outlook trends warmer for the end of work week with some showers
in the north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overnight, the highest confidence for flight restrictions is
across the Northern Tier (KBFD), where IFR to potentially LIFR
ceilings are likely (60-70% chance) on the cool side of a weak
frontal boundary which has passed through. For KIPT and our
Allegheny Front sites (KAOO/KUNV), flight restrictions are less
certain due to the impact of transient cloud cover. At 05Z,
KIPT briefly dipped down to 1SM with clear skies overhead,
followed by a rebound to VFR as a BKN035 cloud deck moved
overhead. The HRRR and 3km NAM suggest that the weak frontal
boundary will cross KIPT between 07-08Z, with visibilities
improving to VFR thereafter due to boundary layer mixing and
continued cloud cover. Across the Lower Susquehanna Valley
(KMDT/KLNS), lighter cloud cover, calm winds, and mild/moist
air may lead to low stratus and fog development through 12Z,
with the LAMP showing moderate to high (40-70%) probabilities
for IFR/LIFR, particularly at KLNS.

By 18Z Saturday, VFR is expected areawide, especially across
our southern terminals (KJST/KAOO/KMDT/KLNS), with a low
(20-30%) chance for MVFR to linger through 18Z across our
northern terminals (KBFD/KUNV/KIPT). Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop across central PA between
18Z-00Z, with the HREF depicting an axis of confluence across
KAOO/KUNV/KIPT, which may serve as a focal point for
development within an environment of SBCAPE around 1000 J/kg.
For this reason, PROB30s for -TSRA were introduced at these
terminals.

Between 00Z-06Z Sunday, flight restrictions are possible as
low-level moisture transport increases ahead of an approaching
cold front, with ceilings down to MVFR being the most probable
at this time. Moreover, a backdoor cold front may push into the
Lower Susquehanna Valley (KMDT/KLNS) after 00Z, potentially
extending as far west as KUNV by 03Z, which could reinforce
MVFR flight restrictions at these terminals.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms
ahead of and along a strong cold front.

Mon...Breezy and cooler with MVFR N/W and VFR elsewhere, with
scattered rain/snow showers possible.

Tue...Mainly VFR with a few rain/show showers.

Wed...VFR.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here are the warmest high and low temperatures recorded for
April 4th at area climate sites:

SITE LOW HIGH
Harrisburg 60/1974 | 82/1999
Williamsport 62/1981 | 84/1921
Altoona 61/1974 | 80/1950
Bradford 50/1981 | 72/1981
State College 57/1999 | 81/1910

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Teare
CLIMATE...Banghoff

Forecaster's
Discussion: