Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

088
FXUS61 KCTP 111131
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
731 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor changes to SPC outlook limited to expanding the tornado
and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley,
but degree of instability remains uncertain.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today,
starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this
afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along
with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is
realized.

2) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the
week into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection.
Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with
damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if
enough instability is realized.

A cold front will sweep through tonight into Thursday, as an
upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front, numerous
showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated today and this
evening. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area continues to include
practically all of central PA with minor changes limited to
expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

The main uncertainty with respect to the severe threat
continues to be instability with recent HREF model guidance
indicating considerable cloudiness across much of the area with
multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation.
Probabilities of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the most recent
HREF top out in the 40-70 pct range across southwestern and
south central PA this afternoon and early evening. Generally
less than a 40 pct chance north of I-80. That said, with winds
of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it wouldn`t
take much to bring some damaging winds down the ground.

While damaging straight line winds will be the most common
threat with today`s convection, the SPC D1 outlook also
maintains CIG1 hatching over much of southern Pennsylvania,
meaning the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater
than the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes
do develop across southern PA, they could be strong. This is
supported by 250-300 m2/s2 effective SRH and LCLs near 1000 m
this afternoon and early evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the
end of the week into early next week.

As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front
cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front
may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to
snow Wed night into Thu. Given the limited precip and warm
ground, not expecting snow accumulation. NW winds will gust
30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday. Winds will get weaker
as the day progresses on Thursday.

The next system will be a potent Clipper moving across the Great
Lakes on Friday. This will likely bring a band of rain and snow
showers across mainly the north, but otherwise more of a wind
producer than a precip maker. Wind gusts in the 40-50 kt range
are possible Fri afternoon into Friday night as the pressure
gradient tightens. Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s
Friday night into early Saturday, a big change from the recent
warm weather.

Guidance favors a Great Lakes Cutter track for the next system
Sunday into Monday. This would result in a corridor of warmer
air pushing in ahead of the system, with highs rising back into
the upper 40s and 50s. Much colder air and gusty winds push back
in behind the cold front Monday night with chilly temps around
through the middle of next week. Latest NBM guidance shows highs
stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees below
average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
An area of convection ahead of an approaching cold front is
moving into the western third of the state this morning. Timed
-TSRA and -SHRA over the western airfields right at the begining
of the forecast with less coverage over the central and east
early.

Pre-frontal line of storms looks to cross the state through the
mid-afternoon through early evening from west to east. Expect
LLWS in TSRA gusts. The actual front will cross the region
toward the end of the forecast period with a brief period of
heavy rain showers and a wind shift to the northwest.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers,
with restrictions possible.

Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow
showers most likely at KBFD and KJST.

Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of
PA. Restrictions possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 530 PM, some new records.

Altoona temperature estimated at 78 for the high today, old
record of 72 degrees set in 1986.

Bradford high of 70 broke the old record of 66 degrees set
in 1986.

Williamsport high of 77 broke the old record of 71 degrees
set in 1977.

Harrisburg high of 80 broke the old record of 79 degrees
set in 2016.

Earlier info. below.

Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across
Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s.

RECORD TEMPERATURES
TUE 3/10 WED 3/11
MAX T MIN T MAX T
Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025)
Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025)
Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021)
State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986)
Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Beaty
AVIATION...Tyburski
CLIMATE...Banghoff

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