Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

818
FXUS61 KCTP 241904
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
304 PM EDT Fri Apr 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers/isolated t-storm likely near and southwest of US-322
this afternoon

2) Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of April with
periods of rain tapering off early Sunday

3) More seasonable end to what has been one of the warmest
April`s on record

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers/t-storm likely near and southwest of
US-322 this afternoon

Focus remains on a NW/SE channel of elevated instability
(925-850 mb LIs of -1 to -2C) this afternoon/early this evening
that will support the development and SE mvmt of showers/sct
low-topped TSRA near a KBFD to KFIG/KUNV and KHGR line through
the rest of this afternoon and into this during the early to
mid afternoon hours. The axis of this convection is progged to
likely shift slowly east this evening with a weakening trend in
the SHRA/TSRA after 00Z Sat as it encounters relatively
cooler/more stable air acrs the Susq Valley.

Although CAPE is thin/weak, a few gusty (below SVR limits) a few low-
topped TSRA are expected through 23Z.

Previous...

HREF/RRFS show rain showers or an isolated t-storm developing
this afternoon within llvl convergence zone (located near or
just to the SW of US-322) associated with a backdoor cold front.
Any t-storm is expected to be non severe given weak instability
and shear profiles. A couple of slow moving downpours are
possible as PW values gradually tick higher through the evening
to ~ 1 inch. Hires models signal a relative decrease in shower
coverage into tonight with max POPS over the northern and
western periphery of the CWA by 12Z Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Noticeably cooler start the last weekend of
April with periods of rain tapering off early Sunday

Weak area of low pressure slides east-southeastward from the
thumb of lower MI to the southern Delmarva/VA Tidewater region
Saturday. Passage of upper level trough and moist east/southeast
llvl flow will help support periods of rain into Saturday night
with total QPF amounts generally in the 0.25-0.75" range. CAD
pattern will result in a 24hr maxT change on the order of 15 to
20 degrees to the downside vs. Friday. Rainfall will be of the
beneficial variety particularly across the far south central and
southeastern zones were moderate /D1/ to severe /D2/ drought
conditions exist. Rain ends in time to salvage the second half
of the last weekend of April 2026. High pressure building in
Sunday night could introduce a frost risk in some parts of the
area early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 3: More seasonable end to what has been one of the
warmest April`s on record

Most sites are tracking top 5-10 warmest April-to-date through
the 23rd. The much above normal warmth is expected to fizzle
out through month-end as the pattern shifts cooler on the
margin with more seasonable days and nights near or slightly
below the historical average heading into May.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A round of scattered-numerous showers will occur along an
elevated, nearly stationary boundary this afternoon and early
this evening (18Z-24Z) from near KBFD to KUNV and KHGR, driven
relatively weak instability (HREF mean SBCAPE around 500 J/kg).

Brief visibility restrictions will be more likely with these
showers given the diurnally driven instability in place, with
brief gusty winds also possible given the inverted-V profile in
place (primarily KJST/KAOO/KUNV).

A second boundary in the form of a back door cold front will
and enhanced uvvel beneath the right entrance region of a nwrly
jet max will create showers (even a few periods of steady,
moderate rain) across the Ncent Mtns and portions of the Mid
Susq Valley late today into Saturday.

For our other sites, spottier shower coverage is expected due
to greater distance from the frontal boundary & less moisture
being available on the drier side, though visibility
restrictions to 5-6SM are possible. Moreover, a few
thundershowers may develop given the instability, though the
low-topped nature of these showers (HRRR modeled cloud top
temperatures warmer than -30 degrees C) precludes TSRA mentions
at this time.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun..Widespread low cigs (IFR to Low MVFR) in Periods of
rain. LLWS at Central and Eastern Airfields on Saturday.

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings
lower and showers move in.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Bowen/Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: