Hawaii and Guam Concerns; Record Warmth Spreads Eastward; Heavy Snow for Sierra-Nevada; Severe Weather for the Plains

A very active spring pattern with tropical concerns across the Pacific. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Hawaii this weekend. Meanwhile we continue to monitor a developing typhoon that may affect Guam into early next week. For the Lower 48, heavy snow for mountains of California this weekend, increase threat for severe thunderstorms next week for the Plains and record warmth spreads east. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

227
FXUS61 KCTP 111038
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
638 AM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor adjustments in the form of increased wind and gusts
Sunday and slightly lower Min RHs today and Sunday. Confidence
continuing to increase in a significant warmup next week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fire weather concerns will still be at play to start the
weekend (mainly across the Lower Susq Valley and Scent PA where
very little to no rain fell late Friday/overnight with the
passage of a weak cold front). Wind gusts will be much lighter
today and from the northwest, but will turn to the south and
increase into the 20s (MPH) on Sunday.

2) Much warmer temperatures expected next week, with the
highest chance for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over
northern and western sections of the Commonwealth.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns will still be at play to start
the weekend (mainly across the Lower Susq Valley and Scent PA
where very little to no rain fell late Friday/overnight with the
passage of a weak cold front). Wind gusts will be much lighter
today and from the northwest, but will turn to the south and
increase into the 20s (MPH) on Sunday.

Weak to somewhat moderate llvl pressure gradient, ahead of SFC
high pressure over Lower Michigan, will bring notably lighter
wind speeds than Friday (which saw 30s and 40s (MPH) gusts
across the Laurel Highlands and NW Mtns. Gusts will climb into
the low to mid 20s across the Susq Valley and points east today,
but will top out in the mid to upper teens elsewhere. A
gradual decrease in wind is expected for the mid to later
afternoon.

Near or sub-30% RH values are possible across the Central and
South-Central Mtns today thanks to downslope flow off the
Alleghenies and a weakening/lowering subsidence inversion with
very dry air aloft (capable of being tapped by any vertical
mixing AOA 3 KFT AGL).

On Sunday, isolated showers could impact the far northern tier,
as some south/southwesterly moisture return develops in the
emerging warm air advection pattern. Most areas, though, will
see no rain drops at all.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Much warmer temperatures are on tap for the
upcoming workweek, with the best chance for hit and miss
showers and thunderstorms Monday with a warm front and
specifically over northern and western sections of the
Commonwealth.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good
agreement that a mean upper-level trough will set up shop across
the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold
from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will likely
set the stage for a notable warming trend, with daily highs
ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday
onward.

Drought impacted sections of south- central and southeast PA
are not likely to see much in the way of rainfall next week.

However, there is a lot of spread in model solutions as one
gets further out in time, so more in the way of rainfall and a
return to much colder weather could occur as one heads into late
next weekend or early the week later. Also the early green up
of fruit trees etc. if temperatures swing to far back the other
way after a bit of summer heat, this could lead to damage. Been
a Spring for frequent temperature swings.

----------------------------------------------------------

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR/low-end VFR ceilings will continue to improve to VFR as
skies clear out through the morning, giving way to mainly clear
skies for the rest of the TAF period. North-northwest winds
will be sustained around 10 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots
possible. Gusts may approach 25 knots at MDT and LNS. Winds will
become lighter during the evening, decreasing to less than 5
knots after sunset.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR anticipated.

Mon-Wed...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible
in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
north and west.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Bauco

Forecaster's
Discussion: