Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

261
FXUS61 KCTP 221726
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1226 PM EST Thu Jan 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect from 10PM Saturday
through 1PM Monday for all of Central PA. Heavy snow is
expected with significant accumulation possible.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few stronger snow showers are possible this morning in
northwest PA as a cold front ushers in gusty west winds this
afternoon.

2) Increasing odds for heavy snow and moderate to major winter
storm impacts Saturday night through Sunday. Winter Storm
Watches have been issued.

3) Arctic blast with frigid temperatures and sub-zero to
dangerous wind chills expected from late week through the
weekend into the first part of next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A few stronger snow showers are possible this morning
in northwest PA as a cold front ushers in gusty west winds this
afternoon.

A couple distinct lines of snow showers have moved through the
area overnight and one last round is expected this morning. The
snow squall parameter remains elevated in northwestern PA
through 10 AM Thu. A vort max traversing southern Michigan will
arrive during the morning commute (6AM-10AM) to produce heavy
snow showers with brief, localized reductions in vsby to less
than 1/4 mile, mostly in the advisory area. Snow Squall Warnings
may be needed.

Along and behind the cold front, gusty west winds are expected
with gusts of 30-40mph expected. Few isolates gust over 45mph
are possible with BUFKIT soundings showing deep mixing to 4-5kft
that would tap into 40 - 50kt winds aloft. Opted to just include
wind wording in the ongoing Winter Weather Advisories on account
of marginal confidence in sporadic instances of 40+ kt wind
gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing odds for heavy snow and major winter
storm impacts Saturday night through Sunday. Winter Storm
Watches may be needed shortly.

Confidence continues to increase in the potential for heavy
snow and major winter storm impacts across central PA this
weekend. As is often the case, the primary model uncertainty
differences center around the interaction between the northern
and southern branches of the jet stream which will ultimately
steer the storm track and associated placement of winter wx/max
snowfall. More than half of ensemble members have at least 6
inches of snow falling across northern tier, and an even higher
percentage - more than 80% - have at least 6 inches fall across
the southern tier. More than half of ensemble members show a
foot of snow or more south and east of I-80/I-99.

The arctic air would favor a dry, fluffy snowfall over the
weekend and be more prone to blowing/drifting impacts. Can`t
rule out some mixing with sleet at the peak of warm air
advection aloft, especially if the storm is more amplified like
the CMC/UKMET have suggested. A Winter Storm Watch is now in
effect for the whole area from 10PM Saturday through 1PM Monday.
Although modifications to snowfall (and perhaps sleet) amounts
are a guarantee, confidence is increasing in significant
snowfall across all of Central PA.

Please continue to check for the latest forecast as it evolves
and details become more clear. Now is the time to prepare. Think
snow blowers, re-arranging travel plans to avoid travel during
the storm, what to do in case of a power outage, etc. Remember
it will be very cold during and after the storm. Never run a
generator indoors due to carbon monoxide.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Arctic blast with frigid temperatures and sub-
zero to dangerous wind chills expected from late week through
the weekend into the first part of next week

An initial shot of Arctic air will arrive on Friday and will be
reinforced behind the departing weekend storm into next week.
Temperatures in southeast PA will reach the middle 30s Friday
afternoon and then plummet ~30 degrees by Saturday morning as
Arctic air pours in. The frigid temperatures will continue
through the end of January and Central PA will likely not see
temperatures rise above freezing again until early February (at
the earliest).

Sub-zero to dangerous wind chills are most likely Friday night
into Saturday morning (preceding the winter storm) and again
Monday night into Tuesday morning. Cold wx advisory or extreme
cold warnings may be needed.

Given the prolonged nature of the cold, we may begin to see
more infrastructure impacts (frozen pipes, for instance) by next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly clear skies will persist through this afternoon and into
the first part of this evening with a majority of the snow
shower activity lifted off to the north and east. Winds will
remain gusty, with most sites seeing gusts of 20 to 30 knots.
Some guidance suggests the potential for gusts to approach 40
knots at JST, AOO, and UNV during this afternoon. Winds
decreases in the evening, and VFR conditions are expected for
most of the area. MVFR ceilings likely redevelop at BFD before
sunrise and at JST in the early afternoon hours on Friday.

Friday will likely see mainly benign weather. Medium to high
clouds will develop over the region and temperatures will
remain cold into Friday night. There is the outside potential
for BFD to see some lake effect snow Friday afternoon, but
confidence is low on if/when impacts could occur.

Fri...Gusty W wind. Lake effect BFD (ocnl IFR). Mainly MVFR
elsewhere.

Sat...Dry most of the day, then SN begins to enter south-to-
north late spreading across region and intensifying overnight.
Widespread IFR likely Sat night.

Sun...Impactful snow storm continues with widespread IFR/MVFR
restrictions.

Mon...Storm lifts to the NE and cold northwest flow takes over,
bringing snow showers and continued restrictions to the NW, and
improving conditions to the SE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-037-041-042.
Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Monday
afternoon for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for PAZ019-025>028-034-035-045-046-049>053.
Extreme Cold Watch from Friday evening through Saturday
morning for PAZ024-033.
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday
for PAZ036-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Bowen

Forecaster's
Discussion: