Critical Fire Weather in the Plains; Unseasonably Warm in the Southwest and Southern U.S.

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend across the Southwest and southern U.S., with more than 100 record or near record maximum temperatures forecast through the rest of the week and over the weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist across the Plains and Southeast U.S. this weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

998
FXUS61 KCTP 281854
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
254 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Little in the way of notable changes to the previous forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temps rebound nicely Sun while dewpoints barely keep up.
Temps continue to rise, with a big jump for Tue.

2) A cold front moves through later in the week, stalls over
VA/NC. High PoPs for days 4-7.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temps rebound nicely Sun while dewpoints barely
keep up. Temps continue to rise, with a big jump for Tue.

High pressure moves off to the southeast tonight. Wind dies down
tonight, and turns southerly for Sunday, helping push max temps up
significantly (12-20F biggest gains in the NW) vs Sat. The drying
wind and already-low dewpoints will nudge us to consider fire
weather products. However, fine fuels are still not favorable
enough to warrant an SPS and certainly not a RFW at this time.
If the fuel moistures do drop a bit more, we may want to issue
an SPS to highlight those concerns for Sunday.

Rain/showers are possible over the nrn half of the state on
late Monday and Monday night as a warm front pushes through.
Temps will jump significantly again on Tues (10-15F over Mon)
with a sustained SWrly wind brining in the heat. Maxes could
near 80F in the S and 70F in the nrn mtns.
-------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front moves through later in the week,
stalls over VA/NC. High PoPs for days 4-7.

Sfc low forms in the midwest and passes to our N Tues night,
dragging a cold front down from the NW into PA on Wed. The front
then stalls over VA/NC and turns back around as a warm front.
The ensuing pattern of a deep flow of Gulf moisture will keep
PoPs high into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail through the entirety of the TAF period
with high pressure in control. Northwesterly winds sustained 10-15
kts with gusts of 20-25 kts will continue this afternoon and
taper off toward sunset.

Scattered fair weather cumulus will fall apart tonight as well as
the center of high pressure drifts over the state. A deck of
mid-high level clouds will overspread the region tonight and
remain overhead through Sunday. Winds shift around to southerly
late tonight into Sunday with gusts perhaps 15-20kts Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sun PM...VFR

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc TSRA west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss. Cold fropa.

Thu...Sct to numerous SHRA, wintry mix possible north.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff

Forecaster's
Discussion: