Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

476
FXUS61 KCTP 041905
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
305 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints and increased wind gusts Tuesday afternoon
* Added frost for Thursday night

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fickle first full week of May with early warm surge followed
by rain and then return of chilly/cooler weather

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Fickle first full week of May with early warm
surge followed by rain and then return of chilly/cooler weather

Mild afternoon in progress with gusty wind from the southwest
helping to boost temps into the 65-75F range.

Hires model data still brings showers/elevated thunder into the
area later this evening from west to east which may continue
overnight. Best precip signal is over the western Alleghenies.

Tuesday will be the warmest day of the week with highs likely
reaching the lower 80s across the southeast portion of the CWA.
Some fire weather concern given breezy conditions with low RH,
but latest coordination with DCNR partners indicates Spring fire
season is largely ended for areas to the south of I80 due to
very warm April accelerating greenup.

Best odds for widespread rain are with a cold front progressing
south and east Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Total
rainfall by 8AM Thursday ranges from 0.25-0.50" across the
drought-stricken southeast to 1-1.5" across the NW mtns where
the largest precip surplus exists.

Temperatures once again turn cooler behind the front with
showery conditions for later in the week. There will also be a
renewed potential for frost/freeze conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through the rest of the day with
scattered clouds between 5000 and 7000 feet. Southwesterly wind
gusts of 20 to 30 knots will continue into the early evening,
before tapering off after sunset.

A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet moving in tonight will bring LLWS
concerns to much of Central PA. For now, we have kept wind shear
out of the TAFs at IPT, MDT, and LNS, with the strongest part of
the jet expected to remain west of those sites. The LLJ will
also provide enough lift for scattered showers and thunderstorms
to develop over western PA after 00Z. All airfields except MDT
and LNS have at least a 30 percent chance of seeing rain from
these showers and storms tonight. Widespread restrictions appear
unlikely, though brief visibility drops will be possible in any
thunderstorms.

Showers decrease in coverage after sunrise on Tuesday, giving
way to mainly dry conditions for the rest of the morning. MVFR
ceilings may develop at BFD, though the rest of Central PA
should remain VFR. Expect southwesterly wind gusts increase to
20 to 25 knots by 15Z.

Outlook...

Tue PM...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE;
restrictions possible.

Wed-Thu...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

Fri-Sat...Scattered SHRA remains possible, restrictions
possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Multiple low temperature records were set or tied across
central Pennsylvania for May 3rd:

Altoona observed a low temperature of 31 degrees, breaking the
previous record of 32 degrees set in 1957.

Johnstown observed a low temperature of 29 degrees, which ties
the previous record of 29 degrees set in 1941.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...Beaty/Lambrech

Forecaster's
Discussion: