Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

256
FXUS61 KCTP 150320
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1120 PM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Bumped snow amounts into the 0.5-0.9 inch range across the
northwest mountains tonight
* Slight Expansion of D3 (Monday) ENH risk (30% wind prob) into
the Lower Susq Valley

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A warm front aloft will produce a quick moving band of snow
north of Interstate 80 late tonight into the predawn Sunday.
Generally a coating in the NW mountains, but can`t rule out a
1 inch report.

2) After a lull tonight and early Sunday, gusty winds return
Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the potential for strong
to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon or early evening.

3) Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply colder
temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some snow
possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A warm front aloft will produce a quick moving
band of snow north of Interstate 80 late tonight into the
predawn Sunday. Generally a coating in the NW mountains, but
can`t rule out a 1 inch report.

At 11 PM Sat, radar was picking up on virga across eastern PA
and much of PA with some east-west banding depicted between 5000
and 7000 feet AGL. This banding is on the leading edge of warm
advection aloft. Between late tonight and early Sunday morning,
hires guidance depicts 850-700 hPa frontogenesis in this area
of warm advection (stronger to the west), as the temperature
gradient tightens into a more well defined warm front ahead of
the same system that will drive a strong cold front through the
region on Monday. Both the 00z NAM and HRRR show an area of
0.5-1.0" of snow falling in a few hours (mostly 3A-6A Sun)
across the northwest. Favored these numbers over lower NBM
guidance given the forcing. Either way, impacts are expected to
be minimal with accumulation of an inch or less falling while
most people are asleep.

KEY MESSAGE 2: After a lull tonight and early Sunday, gusty
winds return Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the potential
for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon or early
evening.

By mid to late afternoon Sunday, as a high pressure ridge axis
shifts offshore and a significant storm tracks from the Plains
towards the Upper Midwest, a return S-SE flow will start to
increase across PA. As this occurs, we also expect lower stratus
clouds to begin to overspread much of the region, along with
periods of light rain and drizzle Sunday night.

Monday continues to be a period of high focus, as model
consensus zeroes in on the potential for significant convective
development. At this early juncture, confidence is quite high
on the synoptic-scale evolution (the approach of a negatively
tilted upper-trough, an associated sharp cold front, and
impressively strong wind fields at all levels). More uncertainty
still has to be dealt with, though, in terms of smaller-scale
factors, such as: exact timing of the cold frontal passage,
potential for a pre-frontal trough, whether any breaks develop
in the overcast conditions that should prevail to start the day
(which would enhance instability)?, and convective mode (will
any discrete cells form ahead of a probable intense squall
line?). Bottom line, though, ultimately we have increasing
levels of confidence in high wind producing thunderstorms Monday
afternoon, with the best potential for damaging gusts and
tornadoes near and south of I-80, as well as east of I-99.
Please stay tuned for later updates over the next couple of
days.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply
colder temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some
snow possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in.

On Monday evening, once the surface cold front pushes through,
colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier
precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable
upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around
moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the
potential for a quick 1-3" of snow in some areas Monday night,
particularly over the higher terrain and northern sections of
the state. Again, this will come down to smaller details, so it
is advised that you stay tuned for later forecast updates.

Tuesday looks windy and much colder, with temperatures a good
25-35 degrees lower than what will be experienced on Monday
(highs no better than the upper 20s-mid 30s in many locales).

Wednesday should be less harsh, but still quite chilly for mid-
March, with highs in the 30s-lower 40s for much of central PA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected at most Central PA airfields
through the night with the exception of BFD where light snow
showers may bring a period of IFR visibility between 07Z and
10Z. LLWS will be a concern overnight and through the day on
Sunday at both BFD and JST as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet
moves in from the southwest. A brief period of wind shear is
possible at AOO as well during the morning, before surface winds
begin to increase. The low-level jet strengthens and moves
eastward Sunday evening, resulting in very strong LLWS at all
airfields into Monday.

After a VFR start to the day, expect low clouds to gradually
move in from the south during the late morning and early
afternoon. MVFR ceilings will first develop at AOO, MDT, and
LNS before 00Z Monday, and will reach the other sites by 03Z.
Expect ceilings to lower further to IFR overnight.

Outlook...

Mon...Very strong LLWS will occur before a VERY strong cold
fropa. Pre-frontal SHRA/TSRA with IFR possible. Then turning
blustery and colder.

Mon night...Snow possible (eastern terminals) behind a
departing cold front with MVFR/IFR restrictions across much of
Central PA.

Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN northwest. IFR possible at BFD and
JST.

Wed...Warm fropa. -SN or -RA possible northwest.

Thu...Sct showers over northern PA with restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Jurewicz/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Jurewicz/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Jurewicz/Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco

Forecaster's
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