Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

330
FXUS61 KCTP 112028
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
428 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added all the rest of our counties south of I-80 to the
tornado watch.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Threat for severe weather into this evening still exists,
but cloud cover has thus far kept things tame. Flooding threat
limited, mainly by spottiness of the expected convection.

2) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the
week into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Threat for severe weather into this evening still exists,
but cloud cover has thus far kept things tame. Flooding threat
limited, mainly by spottiness of the expected convection.

We expanded the tornado watch all the way to the east. Storms
are moving fast and many are exhibiting rotation. Also,
expanding the current watch was a faster and easier option than
making a whole new watch (whether SVR or TOR). Still a bit of
CIN left in the SE and dewpoints slightly lower. But, heating
has popped THV to 80F and HGR to 81F, other SE sites will
continue to heat until TSRA reach there.

Previous...
Severe threat continues. The sun sunshine is busting through
across the southern third, but it remains mainly stable with
mainly the warm advection bumping temps up elsewhere. SVR watch
now to the OH-PA border, but we do expect it to be extended east
in the next 2-3 hrs. But, we will need destabilization to make
the storms grow tall enough to generate the wind/tornado threats
we are expecting. The shear remains very high for PA for any
time of year with bulk shear of 50-60KTs. It should be maximized
in the early aftn over much of the area and be higher over the
east for the evening hours. While the shear is high, the CAPE is
not across the N.

A cold front is approaching from the NW and will sweep through
tonight into Thursday as an upper trough approaches the region.
We will remain in the warm sector for the rest of today and
early tonight. Frontal passage is expected around 02Z in the far
NW and 08Z in the far SE. Temps drop precipitously, with
widespread 30s by Thurs morning.

The flooding threat is highest where recent and
overnight/morning rain has wettened the soil. WPC has
highlighted the SW portion of the CWA for being most at-risk for
flash flooding. The rainfall out of the morning showers/storms
was highly efficient, and some 1+" pixels have been seen on the
radar estimates already today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the
end of the week into early next week.

As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front
cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front
may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to
snow Wed night into Thu. Given the limited precip and warm
ground, not expecting snow accumulation. NW winds will gust
30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday. Winds will get weaker
as the day progresses on Thursday.

The next system will be a potent Clipper moving across the Great
Lakes on Friday. This will likely bring a band of rain and snow
showers across mainly the north, but otherwise more of a wind
producer than a precip maker. Wind gusts in the 40-50 kt range
are possible Fri afternoon into Friday night as the pressure
gradient tightens. Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s
Friday night into early Saturday, a big change from the recent
warm weather.

Guidance favors a Great Lakes Cutter track for the next system
Sunday into Monday. This would result in a corridor of warmer
air pushing in ahead of the system, with highs rising back into
the upper 40s and 50s. Much colder air and gusty winds push back
in behind the cold front Monday night with chilly temps around
through the middle of next week. Temps may even fall on Monday
with strong cold advection - resulting in morning lows. Latest
NBM guidance shows highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday,
some 15-20 degrees below average.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Multiple rounds of SHRA/TSRA ongoing with a wider shield of rain
over the NW (FIG/BFD) at 17Z. Some embedded thunder is
occurring and shear in the lowest 5kft is strong. While the
shear of 30-40KT is there, the nearly constant gusts could and
sometimes does preclude mentions of LLWS in the terminals. But,
we`ll work it into the TAFs for this package for planning
purposes. The WS will be maximized in the 3-4hrs before fropa
this evening (23-03Z at BFD, 00-04Z at UNV/JST/AOO/IPT, and
04-08Z in MDT/LNS). The cold front moving through this evening
(NW) and overnight (rest) will turn the wind to the W and
eventually NW Thurs morning. A brief appearance of lake effect
SHSN is expected at BFD later tonight, but we`ll only mention
vcsh at this point with most of the SHSN staying in NY. JST
could (due to upslope flow at the end of the precip) also have
visby lower as some snow could mix in at the end of the precip
tonight. It is not out of the question (30% chc) that MDT/LNS
could even have some SN mix in, but sfc temps will be in the
L40s as it tries to do so.

Outlook...

Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers,
with restrictions possible.

Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow
showers most likely at KBFD and KJST.

Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of
PA. Restrictions possible.

Mon...CFROPA. Turning blustery, gusty. Pre-frontal SHRA/TSRA
with IFR possible. Post-frontal clouds likely (70%) IFR or low
MVFR west.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for PAZ017-024-025-
033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert
AVIATION...Dangelo

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