
A cold front lingering over Florida will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the state and a flash flooding threat to the east coast over the next couple of days. Fire weather concerns are expected in portions of the Florida panhandle into southeastern Georgia. A Kona Low is expected to bring strong winds, widespread heavy rainfall, and flooding concerns to Hawaii through the weekend. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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763 FXUS61 KCTP 071058 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 658 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Freeze Warning issued for late tonight into Wednesday morning * Freeze Watch issued for Wednesday night into Thursday morning && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Brief surge of cold air is accompanied by passing rain/snow showers early today followed by Freeze headlines tonight and Wednesday night 2) Warming trend ramps up into late week with low humidity and little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Brief surge of cold air is accompanied by passing rain/snow showers early today followed by Freeze headlines tonight and Wednesday night Reinforcing shot of cold air aloft will deliver lake enhanced rain/snow showers early today across the northern tier. Tight pressure gradient between compact sfc low exiting the New England coast and 1036mb high migrating eastward across the Ohio Valley will result in breezy conditions with wind gusts 25-35 mph. Today will likely be one of/if not the coldest days until Fall with max (wind-chilled) apparent temps between 20-40 degrees from NW to SE. Favorable radiational cooling under the strong anticyclone will help foster one of/if not the coldest nights until Fall with min temps ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s. Freeze warnings were issued for the recently activated/early onset growing season counties based on a very warm March-early April period and GDD tracking indices. Freeze watch was also hoisted for Wednesday night with fcst min temps closer to/but still below the freezing mark. KEY MESSAGE 2: Warming trend ramps up into late week with low humidity and little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend An increasingly milder southwest flow will transport warmer air back into CPA by the second half of the week through the upcoming weekend. A pair of weak cold fronts bring minimal rain chances with dry conditions expected most of the time. The overall lack of rain won`t help improve drought conditions across the southeast part of the forecast area and may also bring an uptick in wildfire risk. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Scattered rain/snow showers continue over the Allegheny Plateau and Central Mountain regions this morning as a shortwave trough moves across the Great Lakes, though coverage is trending downward as a high pressure builds in from the west. VFR prevails at most terminals with the exception of KBFD and KJST, where lake- enhanced showers (KBFD) and upslope WNW winds (KJST) have kept cloud ceilings around MVFR, with temporary IFR observed in the steadier snow showers. Northwesterly winds will continue to increase regionwide this morning as the shortwave passes to our north, with wind speeds of 15-20 kts gusting to around 25 kts expected. Rain/snow shower coverage will gradually diminish through 18Z as high pressure brings in a colder/drier air mass, characterized by precipitable water values around 1.5 SD below climo. High confidence (>80%) in VFR across all terminals after 18Z as the shortwave moves off the New England coast and high pressure dominates. After 06Z, the LAMP highlights a low chance (20%) of visibility restrictions at KBFD/KJST as the high pressure moves overhead, with clearing skies and diminishing winds hinting at favorable conditions for radiational fog. At this time, visibilities were kept at P6SM during this timeframe given the low probabilities, but this possibility will continue to be monitored. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR. Fri...Chance of rain showers especially in the western airspace. Sat...Restrictions poss early N/W, then trending VFR. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Steinbugl |
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