Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

931
FXUS61 KCTP 041133
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
633 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Expanded Dense Fog Advisory (DFA) to the western Alleghenies
and I-81 corridor in Lebanon and Schuylkill Counties
* Lowered max temperature forecast for today

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Areas of dense fog/low visibility could make driving
conditions hazardous this morning

2) Periods of beneficial rainfall expected into the first
weekend of March

3) Warmest temperatures since late Fall poised to arrive in the
coming days

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Areas of dense fog/low visibility could make
driving conditions hazardous this morning

Low clouds and areas of dense fog will continue low visibility
and locally hazardous driving conditions early this morning.
DFA was expanded along the western Alleghenies (ridgetops) and
I-81 corridor in Lebanon and Schuylkill Counties where road obs
show minimum vis around 500ft with speed restriction btwn exits
138 and 89. SPS also issued for slippery spots and black ice
over the Endless mtns where air/road temps are hovering around
32F. Expect a gradual improvement in visibility through midday
with breaks of sun most likely over the northern tier by the
afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of beneficial rainfall expected into the
first weekend of March

On the heels of one of the driest winter seasons on record,
periods of beneficial rain are expected into the first weekend
of March. Light rain lingers over the southern tier today before
a more robust moisture surge returns widespread rain to CPA
overnight through Thursday. QPF for Friday looks pretty light
and spotty at this time, so bulk of total rainfall fcst in the
0.75-1.25" range is expected tonight and Thursday. The next best
chance for rain would be Saturday-Saturday night with another
probable dry stretch Sunday into next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmest temperatures since late Fall poised to
arrive in the coming days

Persistent and amplified Southeast U.S./Atlantic centered upper
ridging will promote a significant springtime warming trend into
the second week of March. Fcst max and min temperatures will be
15-30 degrees above the historical average Sat-Wed and may
challenge daily records.

CAD pattern looks to delay the ramp-up in springtime warmth to
some extent on Friday, although fcst highs are still 15-25F
above the historical average along the western periphery of the
CWA. Saturday continues to signal as the the warmest day out of
the next 5 as we manage to break into the warm sector.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue for all TAF sites into the
morning with expansive low stratus and fog. VFR conditions will
return to BFD and IPT by late morning as a brief shift to
northwesterly flow aloft brings drier air overhead. Recent model
runs have shown conditions improving to MVFR or possibly even
VFR at UNV, MDT, and LNS for the afternoon, though confidence in
this is low as some guidance keeps these sites solidly IFR
through the entire TAF period.

The low clouds look to be more stubborn for JST and AOO, with
those sites likely remaining IFR or LIFR through the day on
Wednesday. The LAMP even keeps visibility below 1/2SM through
12Z Thursday, but this might be a little pessimistic.

Any improvements will be short-lived, with IFR conditions
expected to return area-wide tonight as low clouds and fog
expand once again.

Most of the region will be dry on Wednesday, but a few showers
could move across southern PA during the afternoon. These would
be most likely to impact JST and AOO, though they could reach
as far east as MDT. Widespread rain returns to the region after
06Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions likely with widespread rain associated with a
warm front.

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible,
especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and
east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds
could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033-058-059.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco/Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: