Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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222 FXUS61 KCTP 130835 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 435 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread may be need again for late this morning and this afternoon across Southern PA. * Increased wind gusts by a few knots for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as a few upper level disturbance as associated LLVL wind maxes move across New York. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. 2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. Notably warmer temps and higher dewpoints (relative to early Sunday morning) have advected NE into the Commonwealth with a large amount of cloud cover aiding in the milder overnight readings. A low to mid level wind max moves across the region today with the highest 850 mb wind speeds of 55-60 kts occurring over the Northern Mtns of PA between 12-15Z. This wind max and a sfc warm front lifting across the CWA will help to generate a few (mainly brief and light showers) that will move quickly east across the area this morning. Afterward, subtle/flat ridging aloft and low-mid level speed divergence will lead to a significant lull in the showers for the afternoon, with warm temps and a gusty SW wind in the mid 20s to low 30s (KTS). Min RHs in the 30s (Percent) will occur across the South (where the worst drought conditions and driest fine fuels persist). Although Min RHs will be nearly 10 percent higher than Sunday, the other elements will still be conducive to rapid fire spread where ignition occurs. A Special Weather Statement will be issued once again for much of the southern third of the CWA. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer than normal temperatures through the upcoming week. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and west. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning, keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally north/west of the region today. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything yet! The prob for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected for all central PA airfields through the rest of the night under increasing mid and high level clouds. Model soundings from the RAP and HRRR continue to suggest the potential for patchy fog or low clouds to form near MDT and LNS prior to sunrise, but confidence remains too low to include any restrictions in the TAFs. Low level wind shear will remain a concern into the morning as a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet traverses the region. Ceilings will lower to MVFR at BFD this morning as light rain moves in from the west. These showers will weaken/dissipate with eastward extent as they move into a drier air mass. Ceilings should return to VFR at BFD behind these showers. Winds increase during the late morning/early afternoon, with gusts between 20 and 30 knots likely. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, but confidence is low on where they actually set up. Some models suggest that the focus will largely be to the north of UNV, while other models, particularly the HRRR and RRFS, indicate that the majority of the showers and storms may be to the south. PROB30s for -SHRA have been included at all TAF sites for now due to the lingering uncertainty, but this will need to be refined with future TAF issuances. Low clouds should develop once again at BFD after 00Z, with ceilings likely falling to MVFR. Brief periods of IFR are possible as well. The rest of the TAF sites should see VFR conditions continue with decreasing low-level cloud cover. Winds will decrease to around 10 knots after sunset. Outlook... Tue-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert KEY MESSAGES...Lambert DISCUSSION...Lambert AVIATION...Bauco |
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