Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
|
951 FXUS61 KCTP 131902 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of rapid wildfire spread may be need again for late this morning and this afternoon across Southern PA. * Increased wind gusts by a few knots for this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon as a few upper level disturbance as associated LLVL wind maxes move across New York. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. 2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely occurring across northern and western PA. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across southern PA once again today. After a few light showers drifted across the region this morning, a mostly dry afternoon is underway.Subtle ridging aloft and low-mid level speed divergence will help suppress most of the showers for the afternoon, with warm temps and a gusty SW wind in the mid 20s to low 30s (KTS). Min RHs in the 30s (Percent) will occur across the South (where the worst drought conditions and driest fine fuels persist). Although Min RHs will be nearly 10 percent higher than Sunday, the other elements will still be conducive to rapid fire spread where ignition occurs. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect until 7PM for much of the southern third of the CWA. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer than normal temperatures through the upcoming week. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30 deg F above normal). Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and west. In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning, keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally north/west of the region today. For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything yet! The probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Widespread VFR conditions as of 18Z are likely to continue throughout much of the evening hours. Widely scattered showers are mainly expected across portions of northwestern Pennsylvania in the near-term; however, low-level dry air has trended slightly drier than recent model guidance. Given these observational trends have pulled back mentions this afternoon compared to previous TAF sets; however, there remains a low (~20%) chance of -SHRA at JST through 00Z Tuesday with slightly higher chances at BFD. Increasing low-level moisture overnight (mainly focused in the 06-12Z Tuesday timeframe will bring about increasing odds for sub-VFR conditions at BFD/JST. Recent HREF paints highest probabilities in sub-VFR conditions at BFD where recent model guidance does begin to tank ceilings towards IFR/LIFR thresholds between 08-12Z. The main driver for IFR/LIFR conditions at BFD will be if there is any rainfall, which would bring increasing odds for low cloud development. Recent GLAMP guidance has latched onto a light rain shower solution, so have come closer in line with this thinking for the 18Z TAF cycle. Fog formation at MDT/LNS (~08-12Z Tuesday) looks slightly less likely than previous packages; however, have retained chances with low (~30%) confidence. A better chance for rain comes to central Pennsylvania closer to 12Z Tuesday and into the end of the TAF package with slightly better forcing and moisture returns, especially across the northwestern terminals (BFD/JST/UNV/IPT) after sunrise. Rain is generally expected to be light and not bring a lot in the way of restrictions but have included mentions for this rain potential towards the end of the TAF package. Outlook... Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff AVIATION...Beaty |
|
All NWS State College Text Statements/Forecasts:
|
|||