Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

601
FXUS61 KCTP 040616
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
116 AM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Posted fog advisory for the NW
* Lowered max temps significantly in the east for Friday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of much-needed rain expected from Wednesday through
the first weekend of March; wet pattern favored into next week
with above-normal rainfall likely.

2) Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up from late
week into the second week of March. However, temps may be lower
than guidance on Friday, especially in eastern PA.

3) Fog is expected to get worse and expand into more of the CWA
by sunrise.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of much-needed rain expected from
Wednesday through the first weekend of March; wet pattern
favored into next week with above-normal rainfall likely.

On the heels of one of the driest winter seasons on record (see
climate section), periods of much needed rainfall are expected
from Wednesday through the first weekend of March. The wet
pattern is favored to last into the second week of March based
on the latest CPC 6-10/8-14 day precip outlooks. Surges of
Pacific and Gulf moisture interacting with wavy or slow moving
frontal zones is projected to deliver total rainfall amounts
between 1 and 3 inches across CPA through next Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant springtime warming pattern ramps up
from late week into the second week of March. However, temps
may be lower than guidance on Friday, especially in eastern PA.

Persistent and amplified Southeast U.S./Atlantic centered upper
ridging will promote a significant springtime warming trend
from late week into the second week of March. Fcst max and min
temperatures will be 15-30 degrees above the historical average
Sat-Tue and may challenge daily records. Fri is a big if on
temps - mainly in the east. Deep easterly flow behind an
expected backdoor (moving down from the NE) cold front could
keep us much cooler than guidance. This has been a
concern/forecast challenge for a few days, and after
collaboration with our neighbors we`ve made a move to lower
forecast max temps 4-6F over the east. We should get milder
(hot) on Sat with good SWrly flow pushing the front back to the
NE.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Fog is expected to get worse and expand into
more of the CWA by sunrise.

Moisture is increasing while temps cool a bit overnight, and is
an excellent setup for fog to get dense again by morning. The
fog in the NW has already become dense, and HREF/HRRR/SREF
progs all show a very high probability of low visibility.
MAV/MET guidance also keep visby down at BFD thru 15Z. A little
skeptical that the 1/4SM or less fog will last that long, but
it`s a certainty for the next 8 hrs at least. Later shift will
probably have to expand the advy, but not enough confidence to
post for anyone else just yet. They just improved a bit, anyway.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR/LIFR conditions will continue through the night with
expansive low stratus and fog. A few showers will be possible
into the early morning, especially south of UNV.

VFR conditions will return to BFD and IPT by late morning as a
brief shift to northwesterly flow aloft brings drier air
overhead. Recent guidance has shown ceilings rising to MVFR at
UNV, MDT, and LNS for the afternoon as well. The low clouds look
to be more stubborn for JST and AOO, with those sites likely
remaining IFR through the day on Wednesday. These improvements
will be short-lived, with IFR conditions expected to return
area-wide Wednesday night as low clouds and fog expand once
again.

Most of the region will be dry on Wednesday, but a few showers
could sneak into southern PA during the afternoon. These would
be most likely to impact JST and AOO, though they could reach as
far east as MDT. Widespread rain returns to the region after
06Z Thursday.

Outlook...

Thu...Restrictions likely with widespread rain associated with a
warm front.

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible,
especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and
east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds
could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ004>006-
010-011-017-024-033-058-059.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco/Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: