Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

951
FXUS61 KCTP 131902
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
302 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Special Weather Statement for an elevated risk of rapid
wildfire spread may be need again for late this morning and
this afternoon across Southern PA.

* Increased wind gusts by a few knots for this afternoon and
Tuesday afternoon as a few upper level disturbance as associated
LLVL wind maxes move across New York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused across
southern PA once again today.

2) Another impressive warm up begins today and continues
through the week; near- record warmth on tap for Wednesday and
Thursday.

3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during
the upcoming week, with the greatest amount of rainfall likely
occurring across northern and western PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk of wildfire spread will be focused
across southern PA once again today.

After a few light showers drifted across the region this
morning, a mostly dry afternoon is underway.Subtle ridging
aloft and low-mid level speed divergence will help suppress most
of the showers for the afternoon, with warm temps and a gusty
SW wind in the mid 20s to low 30s (KTS). Min RHs in the 30s
(Percent) will occur across the South (where the worst drought
conditions and driest fine fuels persist). Although Min RHs will
be nearly 10 percent higher than Sunday, the other elements
will still be conducive to rapid fire spread where ignition
occurs.

A Special Weather Statement remains in effect until 7PM for
much of the southern third of the CWA.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the
week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty
southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of much warmer
than normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good
agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western
CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf
states up the eastern seaboard. This will bring a notable
warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s
across central PA from Tuesday onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the
region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows
both Wednesday and Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than
our average highs this time of year (or an incredible 25 to 30
deg F above normal).

Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and
60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will
feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms
expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and
west.

In general for the workweek ahead, the storm track will run
from SW to NE across the Great Lakes, with several waves of low
pressure drifting into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set
up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled
weather in place across northwest PA in particular.

LLJ will lift across far northern PA western NY this morning,
keeping the main focus for any significant convection generally
north/west of the region today.

For Tuesday, SPC has expanded the MRGL Risk for SVR TSRA over
much of the Northern Half of PA for the afternoon and evening as
a 35 to 40 kt WSW LLVL wind max advects across that part of the
state during peak heating with broad upper level diffluence
noted in the westerly flow AOA 500 mb on the southerly flank of
an upper level jet max. If you have outdoor plans this week,
continue to monitor the forecast - no need to cancel anything
yet!

The probability for showers/storms will be highest in northwest
PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see
more rain, while drought- stricken locations across the
southeast part of our CWA will see less rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions as of 18Z are likely to continue
throughout much of the evening hours. Widely scattered showers
are mainly expected across portions of northwestern
Pennsylvania in the near-term; however, low-level dry air has
trended slightly drier than recent model guidance. Given these
observational trends have pulled back mentions this afternoon
compared to previous TAF sets; however, there remains a low
(~20%) chance of -SHRA at JST through 00Z Tuesday with slightly
higher chances at BFD.

Increasing low-level moisture overnight (mainly focused in the
06-12Z Tuesday timeframe will bring about increasing odds for
sub-VFR conditions at BFD/JST. Recent HREF paints highest
probabilities in sub-VFR conditions at BFD where recent model
guidance does begin to tank ceilings towards IFR/LIFR
thresholds between 08-12Z. The main driver for IFR/LIFR
conditions at BFD will be if there is any rainfall, which would
bring increasing odds for low cloud development. Recent GLAMP
guidance has latched onto a light rain shower solution, so have
come closer in line with this thinking for the 18Z TAF cycle.
Fog formation at MDT/LNS (~08-12Z Tuesday) looks slightly less
likely than previous packages; however, have retained chances
with low (~30%) confidence. A better chance for rain comes to
central Pennsylvania closer to 12Z Tuesday and into the end of
the TAF package with slightly better forcing and moisture
returns, especially across the northwestern terminals
(BFD/JST/UNV/IPT) after sunrise. Rain is generally expected to
be light and not bring a lot in the way of restrictions but have
included mentions for this rain potential towards the end of
the TAF package.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible
in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
north and west.

Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

Sat...Restrictions in SHRA early, drier conditions late.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff
AVIATION...Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: