Critical Fire Weather in the Plains; Unseasonably Warm in the Southwest and Southern U.S.

Unseasonably warm temperatures continue through the weekend across the Southwest and southern U.S., with more than 100 record or near record maximum temperatures forecast through the rest of the week and over the weekend. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist across the Plains and Southeast U.S. this weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

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FXUS61 KCTP 281040
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
640 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Little in the way of notable changes to the previous forecast
for this weekend as a large area of high pressure drifts over
the Commonwealth tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Much below normal high temperatures today followed by a
gradual warmup beginning Sunday and peaking on Tuesday.

2) Plenty of clouds with periods of showers Monday through
Tuesday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Considerable cool down into the last weekend of
March followed by resurgence of Spring warmth to kick off April

A sprawling area of surface high pressure (1040 MB) over the
midwestern states early today will drift east and reach the
Eastern Seaboard by daybreak Sunday.

Northwest flow at the surface and aloft will combine with a
subtle mid-upper level trough to bring some areas of bkn strato
cu through early this afternoon, especially across the northern
and western mtns where a few flurries are possible as the
shallow clouds will be nestled within the favorable thermal
ribbon for dendritic growth.

A benign weather pattern is expected for much of the weekend
thanks to seasonably strong sfc high pressure migrating eastward
from the Midwest. The passage of an upper level trough late
tonight into early Saturday could trigger some lake enhanced
showers over the northern tier, but the sensible weather on the
whole will be chilly and uneventful to start the last weekend of
March.

Moderately gusty northwest wind (low to mid 20s KTS) will occur
through today as the well mixed layer grows to around 6 kft agl
and taps some relatively stronger wind within the upper half of
this layer.

Based on the recent widespread rainfall and discussion with the
PA BOF personnel, fire weather concerns are quite limited.

That being said, low RH values below 30 percent this afternoon
and the gusty NW wind could support a few wildfires, especially
across our eastern zones, as finer fuel moisture will be the
lowest where the least amount of rain (AOB 0.50 inch) occurred
Thursday/Thursday night.

The Bureau of Forestry indicates that fuels (leaves/grasses/etc.)
are moist enough to prevent significant fire weather concerns,
but please use caution if planning to burn any debris this
weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Plenty of clouds with periods of showers Monday
through Tuesday night

As we head into the upcoming week, all model signals point to a
resurgence of Spring warmth to close out the month and kick off
April. An anomalous ridge of high pressure will shift from the
western US to the east coast and bring a prolonged stretch of
southwesterly flow. This will support temperatures in the 60s
and 70s for the middle of next week. As the western US ridge is
replaced by a deep trough, a resurgence of deep layer moisture
from the Gulf region will bring a fairly active/rainy/stormy
pattern in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic through Easter
weekend. Warm & wet looks like the theme for Central PA for the
first couple weeks of April. Spring growth should commence with
haste over the next few weeks.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak trough of low pressure at the surface and aloft will
drift SE across the region this morning. This weather feature
will accompanied and followed by variable amounts of strato cu
clouds (possibly dipping into upper end MVFR range at KBFD and
KJST with a few flurries).

Elsewhere, widespread VFR conditions will prevail through this
current 12Z TAF period.

Northwesterly winds in the wake of the aforementioned trough
will increase to 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts. Breezy
conditions will last much of today.

Skies trend toward SKC by 21z Sat with wind decreasing tonight
as the center of high pressure drifts over the state.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR. Winds shift to S-SW as an area of high pressure moves
east and off the Mid Atlantic Coast.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc TSRA west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss. Cold fropa.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: