Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

965
FXUS61 KCTP 121741
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
141 PM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Special Weather Statement in effect for locations south of
I-80 through 6PM for an elevated risk of rapid wildfire
spread.
* Increased wind gusts each of the next several afternoons as a
series of upper level disturbance move across New York.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Elevated risk of wildfire spread once again today across
primarily the Southern third to half of PA.

2) Warm up begins today and continues through the week; near-
record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

3) Several periods of showers and thunderstorms expected during
the upcoming week, especially in the north and west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated risk of wildfire spread once again today
across primarily the Southern third to half of PA.

High pressure continues to drift off the East Coast this
afternoon as upper level ridging builds in and surface pressure
decreases ahead of an approaching surface low drifting across
the Upper Midwest. Clouds will continue to increase as a warm
front pushes Northeast from the Ohio Valley.

Southeast to South winds will also increase today with gusts in
the low to mid 20s (MPH). The wind will combine with min RHs as
low as the upper 30s and the persistently dry fine fuels across
the southern third to half of the state to create an elevated
threat for wildfire spread. A Special Weather Statement remains
in effect until 6PM Sunday for locations south of I-80 in
Central PA.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins today and continues through the
week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

LLVL warm advection kicks in today with a moderately gusty
southerly flow ushering in a prolonged period of warmer than
normal temperatures through the upcoming week.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good
agreement showing a mean upper-level trough across the western
CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf
states up the eastern seaboard.

This will bring a notable warming trend, with daily highs
ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday
onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the
region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows
Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs
this time of year. Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows
in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F
mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Several periods of showers and thunderstorms
expected during the upcoming week, especially in the north and
west.

The storm track for the week ahead will run from SW to NE across
the Great Lakes, with multiple waves of low pressure drifting
into Ontario, CA. A frontal boundary will set up generally west
to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place
across northwest PA in particular.

A few shortwaves ejecting from the mean Central/Western US
trough will likely bring and increase in the chance for severe
weather, which is well supported by some of the NCAR Ensemble
guidance that highlights an elevated severe threat Tuesday (NW),
Wednesday (all of PA) and Thursday (southeast PA). Sufficient
uncertainty exists right now such that the details of
timing/location/intensity of severe weather remain fuzzy. If you
have outdoor plans this week, continue to monitor the forecast -
no need to cancel anything yet!

The prob for showers/storms will be highest in northwest PA.
Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more
rain, while drought- stricken locations across the southeast
part of our CWA will see less rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for all central PA airfields
through this evening and overnight under increasing mid and
high level clouds. A few showers may develop this afternoon over
northern PA ahead of a warm front, but limited moisture and
weak forcing should keep them pretty isolated. The best chance
for rain (around 20 percent) will be at BFD. Winds will be out
of the south at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible.

A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will move in from the west after
00Z Monday, bringing a period of LLWS to all TAF sites. This
will also usher in better low-level moisture, allowing ceilings
to gradually lower through the night. Light rain will overspread
northwest PA before dawn on Monday and overspread the area
through the day. MVFR ceilings are favored at BFD by mid
morning and could reach JST/UNV/IPT toward the end of the 18Z
TAF package. As rain showers encounter drier air and
downsloping winds with southeastward extent, they will
weaken/dissipate. Brief MVFR visibilities are possible, but
widespread/persistent restrictions from rain are not likely.

Recent guidance suggests the potential for low clouds to develop
over the Lower Susquehanna Valley tonight as light southeasterly
flow develops. This may lead to MVFR ceilings at IPT, MDT and
LNS, but confidence remains too low to prevail any restrictions.

Outlook...

Mon...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially northern
and western TAF sites.

Tue-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible
in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
north and west.

Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the
afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff/Stoudt
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff/Stoudt
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco/Stoudt

Forecaster's
Discussion: