Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

311
FXUS61 KCTP 072324
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
724 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Frost Advisory issued tonight for the western and northern
Alleghenies

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonably cool and mainly dry end to the week with areas of
frost tonight into early Friday morning

2) Wet weather - but not a total washout - for Mother`s Day
weekend; monitoring frost freeze risk Monday night/AM Tuesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Seasonably cool and mainly dry end to the week
with areas of frost tonight into early Friday morning

Most locations stay dry through the end of the week with a
couple of passing showers or sprinkles over the northern
portion of the forecast area. Daytime highs Thu/Fri are 5-10F
below the historical average for early May. Diurnal/instability
cu field should fade this evening and give way to initial
clearing before some clouds try to return by the predawn hours
Friday. The cloud coverage could limit areas of frost which are
most likely to be found across the western and northern
Alleghenies where min temps are fcst in the low-mid 30s. Patchy
frost is also possible farther to the east/downwind of the
Allegheny Front especially in the usually colder sheltered
rural valleys between I99/US220 and I81.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Wet weather - but not a total washout - for
Mother`s Day weekend; monitoring frost freeze risk Monday
night/AM Tuesday

Model signals point toward a wet start to Mother`s Day weekend
with zone of steady light rain early Saturday tapering to
showers by Saturday night. Hires output suggests a WSW-ENE
oriented band of rain focusing over the northern half of the CWA
Saturday morning. Additional showers are likely Sunday into
Sunday night although the exact timing is still unclear.
Initial read favors late Sunday through Sunday night/early
Monday with more rain breaks or intermittent periods of
rain/showers for the second half of Mother`s Day weekend.
Daytime highs this weekend are projected to warmup a bit into
the 60-75F range Sunday afternoon. While we have high confidence
for rain at times this weekend, we don`t expect a total washout.
Total rainfall amounts through Sunday evening are generally
0.25" or less in most places. A dry-out period likely follows
as rain exits CPA by Monday night with another frost/freeze
risk to manage into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Scattered showers have developed over northwestern PA and will
continue to expand eastward through the rest of the evening.
These showers are most likely to impact BFD and IPT, though
they could make a close approach to UNV. VFR conditions are
favored over all of Central PA for much of the night, though
MVFR ceilings likely develop at BFD close to sunrise. VFR
conditions should return area-wide by early afternoon.

Expect additional showers to develop during the morning over
western PA. These should increase in coverage through the
afternoon, potentially bringing light rain to most of the
region. At this point all airfields except MDT and LNS have at
least a 30 percent chance of seeing showers on Friday. While no
restrictions have been included in the TAFs for now, brief
visibility drops to MVFR will be possible with the rain. Model
soundings shows some weak instability during the afternoon, so a
lightning strike cannot be completely ruled out.

Outlook...

Sat...Restrictions possible in rain and fog.

Sun...VFR favored early, with restrictions becoming more likely
in the afternoon as another cold front moves SE. SHRA with
isolated TSRA possible as cold front passes through.

Mon-Tue...VFR conditions expected to prevail.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033-037-041-042.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Bauco

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