Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

959
FXUS61 KCTP 240003
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
803 PM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered temps Saturday by 5F across much of Central and
Eastern PA, pegged sky cover at 100 pct and removed the
mention of thunder under llvl CAD regime with periods of
steady light to moderate rain and drizzle in between.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers likely and a thunderstorm possible Friday (Central
and NW Mtns).

2) Periods of rain area-wide Fri night-Sat night does not look
heavy. Sunday now looking dry.

3) Several more shots at rain follow for the new week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers likely and a thunderstorm possible Friday
(Central and NW Mtns).

Sfc warm/Q-stnry front extended from KYNG to KIDI and SE to
around KHGR at 18Z Thu.

This boundary will be lifting northward through the western and
southern counties of PA as a warm front on Friday, and will
help to generate scattered SHRA/TSRA, mainly in the afternoon
near and to the west of RT 219 where MU CAPE of up to around 750
J/KG is possible based on the latest HREF.

Most models produce convection, and confidence is high.
Clearfield county (and points just to the North and East (along
a fairly sharp, quasi-stnry 925-850 mb boundary) seems like it
would be the most-likely place to get 2 or more SHRAs.

PWAT barely gets near 1" by the end of the day. Best
instability will be around there. Point amounts may near 0.25",
but chc for more than that is very low. Light easterly wind to
the east of the warm front could keep the temps there down 4-7F
vs Thurs.

------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of rain/drizzle area-wide Fri night-Sat
night does not look heavy. Sunday now looking dry.

Main change for this period was to lower temps (by about 5 deg
F) acrs central and eastern parts of the CWA within a regime of
low-level CAD.

MCS looks likely to drop down from the Upper Great Lakes Friday
night, but the 8H jet looks weak. Timing looks more-solid,
now, with the bulk of the rain in the second half of Fri night
and early Sat. Some models/members linger precip much of Sat
with the big upper low over nrn New England
retrograding/wobbling westward slightly. Energy dropping
southeast could still provide enough lift to trigger sct
SHRA/TSRA Sat - mainly in the east.

There could be a little briefly heavy rain from TSRA, but the
overall QPF for Fri night into Sat night is 1" or less.
Everything is grown across the southern 2/3rds of the CWA. Even
the N is seeing a little color on the hills. Therefore, there
is no threat for flooding. Overall, Sat looks 10F cooler than
Fri on the whole, with the E cooler (50s) vs W (60s).

Upper ridging builds in on Sun with a drying trend continuing
amongst the preponderance of solutions. Lag is about the only
thing keeping a 20 PoP in for Sun for now. Overall, it looks
like the sky will brighten Sun with maxes in the 60s.

------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Several more shots at rain follow for the new
week.

Upper low to our NE finally slides east and allows a brief visit
from dry weather later Sun-Mon. The upper ridge is weak and
breaks down quickly, though and moisture from the west rolls in
Mon night/Tues. The pattern looks favorable for at least two
shots of rain with two cold fronts mid-week. Timing and details
are uncertain, though. Neither front looks like a significant
transition, and temps stay seasonable. Many places in Central
PA would welcome additional rainfall, esp the S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR is likely to prevail through 00Z Saturday with flight
restrictions limited to SHRA across Central PA tomorrow morning
& afternoon.

Clouds will increase between 02Z-07Z Friday as a shortwave
approaches from the northwest, with conditions remaining dry
through the night. An initial round of scattered showers is
expected between 12Z-17Z Friday along a narrow NNW/SSE boundary
over Central PA (closest to KBFD/KIPT/KUNV), where milder/moist
air from the southwest meets & rises over cooler/drier air from
the northeast. Most of these showers will move across the drier
side of this boundary, with VFR favored for these showers given
low-level dry air (T/Td spreads around 10 degrees C).

A second round of scattered showers will develop across this
boundary in the afternoon (18Z-24Z), driven by instability
developing on the mild/moist side (HREF mean SBCAPE around 500
J/kg). Visibility restrictions will be more likely with these
showers given the diurnally driven instability in place, with
brief gusty winds also possible given the inverted-V profile in
place (primarily KJST/KAOO/KUNV). For our other sites, spottier
shower coverage is expected due to greater distance from the
frontal boundary & less moisture being available on the drier
side, though visibility restrictions to 5-6SM are possible.
Moreover, a few thundershowers may develop given the
instability, though the low-topped nature of these showers (HRRR
modeled cloud top temperatures warmer than
-30 degrees C) precludes TSRA mentions at this time.

Outlook...

Sat-Sun..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions.

Mon...VFR likely.

Tue...VFR early, with restrictions west to east as ceilings
lower and showers move in.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Teare

Forecaster's
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