Fire Weather Issues; Pacific System Moving Inland

Dry fuels, strong winds and dry weather will continue to bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions to the areas of the Plains, Midwest and Southeast today. A Pacific storm system will bring low elevation rain and heavy high elevation mountain snow to California through early week, expanding into the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and southern California on Tuesday. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

588
FXUS61 KCTP 200943
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
543 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added discussion about record number of 80+ F degree days
across the area so far this year.
* Freeze Warnings in effect for all of Central PA tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread damaging frost/freeze threat across all of
central Pennsylvania tonight into Tuesday morning.

2) Drier conditions in the early to middle part of the week may
result in a marginal increase in risk of wildfire spread.

3) Trending warmer through the week with only occasional chances
for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread damaging frost/freeze threat across all of
central Pennsylvania tonight into Tuesday morning.

Confidence is /very/ high in a widespread freeze tonight into
Tues morning due to a combination of high pressure nearby, light
wind, and 8H temps in the -5 to -10C range overhead. Lows will
range from the upper teens in the typical cold spots across the
northwest mountains to near 30 in the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

The growing season has been activated for all but four zones
(Tioga/Sullivan/Potter Counties and Northern Lycoming County)
across central Pennsylvania as of 04/18/2026, see the latest
Public Info Statement for those details. A Freeze Warning is in
effect for all the zones with active growing season.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Drier conditions in the early to middle part of
the week may result in a marginal increase in risk of wildfire
spread.

Today will see lower dewpoints work into the area along with
gusty northwest winds. A few light snow showers are likely
across the northern tier as a shortwave moves overhead and
steepens lapse rates, but no accumulation is expected.
Typically such dry air (RH values dropping into the upper 20s to
lower 30s percent) and gusty winds (20 to 25 mph) would lead to
an elevated risk of wildfire spread, but rainfall over the
weekend and chilly temperatures (highs in the upper 30s to low
50s) will largely mitigate concerns today.

The combination of low RH, gusty winds, and some sunshine today
should help cure fuels to some extent. Factoring in slightly
warmer temperatures on Tuesday (highs in the 50s to low 60s)
could lead to a slight uptick in wildfire risk. Though winds
will be comparatively lighter on Tuesday compared to Monday.
The bottom line with all of this is to just use caution if you
plan to burn debris or handle any equipment. Only YOU can
prevent wildfires.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Trending warmer through the week with only occasional
chances for precipitation.

High pressure will be south of PA starting Tuesday and
continuing through the end of the week. As a result, westerly or
southwesterly flow rotating around the north side of surface
high pressure will usher in increasingly mild temperatures.
Friday is progged to be the warmest day as temperatures rise to
near 80F in the southwest corner of our forecast area and into
the middle 60s F in the northeast.

A fairly moisture-starved low pressure system will drift
across the region on Wednesday, bringing scattered rain
showers. There is not much upper level support for thunderstorms
at this point, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled
out. QPF should generally remain below a tenth of an inch and
Wednesday will certainly not be a washout. The second half of
the week looks rainfree as high pressure again takes over. The
next considerable chance for rain returns on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Combination of upper level trough and unseasonably cold
westerly/upslope flow will bring MVFR to low end VFR cigs and
scattered rain/snow showers across most of the airspace this
morning through the afternoon. Very brief MVFR to IFR visibility
restrictions are possible in the passing showers. It will be
breezy especially during the afternoon with sfc wind gusts
20-25kt from 270-330 degrees. High pressure building across the
airspace will return widespread VFR conditions and decrease
winds later tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Scattered rain showers/isolated t-storm possible
mainly Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon.

Thu-Fri...Increasing odds for rain showers Friday-Friday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A very warm March and April has resulted in a record number of
80 degree days so far this year at several climate sites.

Altoona recorded a high temperature of 80F on Saturday. It was
the 7th 80+ degree day so far this year. Year to date, that
shatters the previous record of 4 days with Max T >= 80F at the
site, which occurred in 1976, 1977, and 1998.

March 22: 83F (daily record)
April 04: 80F (daily record)
April 13: 80F
April 14: 81F
April 15: 84F (daily record)
April 16: 85F
April 18: 80F

SITE YTD IN 2026 PREVIOUS RECORD
Altoona 7 4 (1976, 1977, 1998)
Harrisburg 8 6 (1945)
State College 6 6 (2010)

Williamsport has recorded 5 day with MaxT >= 80F, which falls
shy of the existing record of 7 such days through April 18,
2010.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-005-
010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-045-046.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
PAZ004-005-010>012-017-018.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Banghoff

Forecaster's
Discussion: