Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

452
FXUS61 KCTP 230629
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Winter Weather Advisory replaces Winter Storm Warning for
Bedford, Blair, and Clearfield Counties as storm total snow
forecast ticks down areawide

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the western edge
of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm impacts
central PA.

2) Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout the coming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the
western edge of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm
impacts central PA.

Rain turned to snow across the lower Susq valley around 5 PM.
Since sunset, accumulation rates have been near 0.5"/hr in
some of the snow bands across portions of the Lower Susq Valley
and farther north towards Schuylkill Co. A secondary band in
central PA, located within an inverted trough, has been
producing snowfall at rates of 0.25-0.5"/hr.

Expect similar intensities through about 2-3 AM as easterly
isentropic ascent at midlevels is maximized. Still a medium
chance (40-70 pct) that 1"/hr rates push into far eastern
Lancaster County between midnight tonight and sunrise on Monday,
but by and large the heaviest snow bands will miss our CWA to
the east. Storm total snow (which includes snow that fell and
subsequently melted this AM) is expected to range from 4-8" from
Schuylkill Co south into Lancaster County and southeastern York
County, with locally higher amounts possible in northeast
Lancaster County and the higher terrain of Schuylkill County.
Totals of 3-8" still expected in the higher terrain of the
central ridge and valley region intersected by the north-south
oriented snow band in the inverted trough. Lower amounts at
lower elevations and on paved surfaces. Much of the accumulation
is over by sunrise Monday, with lighter snow continuing through
the morning in spots.

A third area of higher snowfall is expected in the Laurel
Highlands where northwest flow on the back side of the coastal
low will support a prolonged period of upslope snow into early
Tuesday morning. Total snowfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches are
expected along the ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties.

Wind gusts increase to 30 to 40 mph overnight, leading to
blowing and drifting snow, particularly in Lancaster County.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout
the coming week.

A clipper system tracking to our north Tuesday night and
Wednesday will bring light to moderate snow to parts of the
region. An initial wave of snow is likely as warm advection
overspreads the area with additional snow showers and
potentially a few snow squalls possible along the cold front as
it moves through during the afternoon.

Most model guidance shows a stronger low pressure system moving
through the region Thursday night and Friday, but details remain
uncertain. Rain or a mix of rain and snow would be favored for
much of Central PA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR/IFR conditions will continue in snow bands and snow
showers through this morning, with locations east of the
Alleghenies improving to VFR during the afternoon as snow
diminishes and ceilings raise due to diurnal mixing.

Along and west of the Alleghenies, MVFR/IFR conditions are
expected as rounds of upslope and lake effect snow showers bring
ceiling and visibility restrictions. Snow showers will
gradually taper off during the evening as drier air moves into
the region, though MVFR ceilings could linger as mixing heights
lower with the loss of daytime heating.

Otherwise, gusty northwesterly winds are expected statewide
through Monday night, with peak wind gusts generally between 20
to 30 kts. These winds could result in blowing/drifting snow.

Outlook...

Mon...MVFR/IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, otherwise improving to VFR with gusty northwesterly
winds.

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in rain/snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ005-006-010-011-017-025-034-037-041-046-051>053.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ012-
018-019-026>028-035-036-042-045-049-050-056>059-063>066.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: