Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

168
FXUS61 KCTP 231727
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1227 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Focus shifting to tail end of winter storm, with light to
moderate synoptic snow showers tapering off this morning
while scattered lake effect and upslope snow showers move in
from the west later today.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light to moderate snow tapers off/exits east after sunrise
with gusty northwest winds ushering in lake effect/upslope snow
showers for the rest of the day.

2) Turning breezy and colder through Tuesday in the wake of the
Nor`easter.

3) Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout the coming
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light to moderate snow tapers off/exits east after sunrise
with gusty northwest winds ushering in lake effect/upslope snow
showers for the rest of the day.

There are two main areas of snowfall affecting Central PA early
this morning associated with the big coastal storm: the first
is a quasi-stationary deformation band that has parked over the
mainstem Susquehanna River valley overnight. This area of snow
has weakened considerably as of this forecast update, though
pockets of 0.5" per hour snowfall rates remain possible through
sunrise, especially south of I-81. The second area of snow is
located within an inverted trough that covers much of the
Central Mountains from I-80 down to the Mason-Dixon line between
I-99 and US-15. This batch of snow has been producing snowfall
at rates of 0.25-0.5"/hr and has also shown some signs of
weakening with recent radar scans.

Mid and upper level winds will continue to veer over the next
few hours, basically shutting off the easterly moisture
advection and bringing an end to the synoptic snow showers. Storm
total snow (which includes snow that fell and subsequently
melted Sunday morning) is still on target to range from 4-8"
from Schuylkill Co south into Lancaster County and southeastern
York County, with locally higher amounts possible in northeast
Lancaster County and the higher terrain of Schuylkill County.
Totals of 3-8" expected in the higher terrain of the central
ridge and valley region intersected by the north-south oriented
snow band in the inverted trough. Lower amounts at lower
elevations and on paved surfaces.

As deep layer winds shift to northwesterly by late morning, a
classic lake effect/upslope regime will build into Central PA.
Cool temperatures aloft will supply enough instability to
support scattered showers/squalls in northwest to southeast
oriented lake effect snow bands. Additional snow accumulation
is possible from these lake effect/upslope bands, especially
west of I-99 and north of I-80. The tallest ridges in Cambria
and Somerset County will cash in on significant snowfall, with 8
to 12 inches possible through Tuesday morning. A plume of lake
effect moisture is already directing a steady stream of snow
showers into Somerset County this morning and veering winds will
shift that band a bit farther norther later today.

The Snow Squall Parameter lights up across south central PA
this afternoon, highlighting some instability and the potential
for heavier bursts of snow. Overcast skies should limit the risk
for flash freeze conditions and more significant impacts from
snow squalls. We`ll continue to message the threat for lake
effect snow showers and ramp up wording to emphasize snow
squalls if conditions trend more concerning later today.

2) Turning breezy and colder through Tuesday in the wake of the
Nor`easter.

As the Nor`easter bombs out off the east coast, a tightening
pressure gradient over Pennsylvania will cause wind gusts
increase to 25 to 35 mph today, leading to blowing and drifting
snow, particularly in southeast PA. The heavy and wet nature of
the snow could mitigate the blowing and drifting potential to
some extent, but motorists should be alert for changing
conditions today and tonight, even if no snow is falling.

By this evening, a surge of colder air will move into
Pennsylvania. Low temperatures by Tuesday morning will range
from the single digits along and north of US-6 to near 20 south
of the PA Turnpike. Add in some lingering gusty winds and wind
chills will drop into the single digits above and below zero.
Northerly flow again on Tuesday will ensure cold advection
continues and temperatures remain well below average for this
time of year. A bit more in the way of sunshine will be a small
consolation for highs in the 20s and 30s, which are -10 to -15
below normal.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout
the coming week.

A clipper system tracking to our north Tuesday night and
Wednesday will bring light to moderate snow to parts of the
region. An initial wave of snow is likely as warm advection
overspreads the area with additional snow showers and
potentially a few snow squalls possible along the cold front as
it moves through during the afternoon on Wednesday. There is
increasing confidence in at least a plowable snowfall along and
north of I-80.

Most model guidance then shows a stronger low pressure system
moving through the region Thursday night and Friday, but details
remain uncertain. Rain or a mix of rain and snow would be
favored for much of Central PA. Prevailing zonal flow aloft should
mitigate a major system like we experienced on Sunday. Early
indications are that the rain-snow line will set up from west to
east. The big question yet to be answered is will that rain-snow
line set up south of the Mason-Dixon line (all snow for PA),
along I-76 or I-80 (snow north, rain south), or north of PA (all
rain for PA)?

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Pesky low MVFR ceilings are continuing to hang on for much of
the area as low level moisture continues to stick around. A few
lingering bands of snow are also present over central and
eastern PA which have brought visibilities down over MDT. These
snow showers will likely diminish before 00Z. There is some
possibility for improvements to VFR across the region for the
remainder of this afternoon, but confidence overall remains low
with the current cloud decks struggling to break up. If
improvement does occur it will not last long. Loss of daytime
heating will allow for lowering of ceilings again into tonight.
Tuesday afternoon should see some scattering out of clouds
across the southern tier of the state and the return of partly
sunny skies.

Gusty northwesterly winds are expected statewide through
tonight, with peak wind gusts generally between 20 to 30 kts.
Blowing/drifting snow is possible due to these gusty winds,
though the extent of blowing/drifting might be limited by the
wet character of the snow that`s fallen.

Outlook...

Mon...MVFR/IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, otherwise improving to VFR with gusty northwesterly
winds.

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in rain/snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Bowen

Forecaster's
Discussion: