Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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304 FXUS61 KCTP 232237 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 637 PM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor updates to PoPs with snow showers this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Lake effect and upslope snow showers across northern and western Pennsylvania through the evening hours. Heavier snow showers possible across mainly the northern tier of Pennsylvania. 2) Next window for steady, widespread rain is with a cold frontal passage Thursday and into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Lake effect and upslope snow showers across northern and western Pennsylvania through the evening hours. Heavier snow showers possible across mainly the northern tier of Pennsylvania. Chilly northwest flow across the region combined with a weak mid-upper disturbance will produce lake effect and upslope snow showers across the favored lake effect regions and Laurels. Lake effect snow at this time appears to be more of the classic streamers as opposed to the cellular nature of snow showers last week so highest confidence in any precipitation is north/west. Recent SNSQ Parameter from the NAM/GFS outlines some heavier snow showers/squalls will be possible across the northern tier later this afternoon and evening, with more cellular snow showers possible at that time. This also aligns fairly well with recent HREF model guidance indicating a thin axis of SBCAPE, highest mainly along and north of the US-6 corridor of northern PA. KEY MESSAGE 2: Next window for steady, widespread rain is with a cold frontal passage Thursday and into Friday. A cold front is progged to cross the region Thursday night. SPC D4 15% outlook stretches as far east as Cleveland, and the WPC ERO for the same day does paint a MRGL risk into western PA. Will continue to monitor for an increase in both threats as the event gets closer in time, largely dependent on the timing of the cold front, with the threats potentially increasing if the front were to arrive during the evening instead of overnight. Ahead of the cold front, temps are expected to rise into the 60s to near 70 Thursday afternoon. Behind the front, temps fall roughly 20 degrees day-over-day into Friday. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Slow impovement expected overnight, as very cold air remains under a strong inversion. Main change was to slow down the break up of the clouds some. For Tuesday into Wednesday, finally looking at some dry and mainly VFR conditions. Winds not real strong either. Earlier discussion below. Scattered lake effect snow showers will continue through the afternoon and evening, potentially bringing periods of light snow to all TAF sites except MDT and LNS. Northwesterly wind gusts of 20 to 30 knots will begin to die down after 00Z. MVFR ceilings have been very persistent today, but recent satellite trends indicate that more breaks in the clouds are beginning to form over southern PA. Ceilings will rise to MVFR from southeast to northwest, with all TAF sites expected to be VFR after 06Z Tuesday. High pressure moving through the region will provide VFR conditions under mainly clear skies with light winds for Tuesday. Outlook... Wed...Light rain may brush the northern tier. Thu-Friday...Showers becoming more widespread with perhaps a thunderstorm. Restrictions likely. Fri PM...Breezy with light rain exiting the southern tier. Sat...VFR. && .CLIMATE... For March 22nd, Harrisburg tied the daily record high (80) and Altoona set a new daily record high (83). The previous record highs were 80 (1938) and 81 (1966). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert/Beaty KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Beaty DISCUSSION...Colbert/Beaty AVIATION...Martin/Bauco CLIMATE...Steinbugl |
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