Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

378
FXUS61 KCTP 130943
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
543 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The Wind Advisory has been expanded across the northern tier
where confidence is highest in strong winds overnight.
* Slight increase in snowfall amounts at higher elevations along
and north of US-6 today and tonight.
* SPC upgraded southeast PA to a Slight Risk of severe weather
on Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong winds expected this afternoon and overnight for most
of Central PA along with a coating to a few inches of snow for
the northern mountains.

2) Gusty winds return Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with a
temperature roller coaster and potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong winds expected this afternoon and
overnight for most of Central PA along with a coating to a few
inches of snow for the northern mountains.

The deep low pressure of an unusually strong Alberta Clipper
will pass to our north today and tonight. As it does, it will
bring some light to moderate precipitation, mainly along and
north of I-80, along with gusty winds. During the afternoon,
southerly winds will bring the best chance for gusts > 45mph
along our western zones (along and west of the I-99/US-15
corridor). There could be some stronger wind gusts in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley also, but not enough confidence to hoist an
Advisory there at this point. Once the Clipper passes to our
east, winds will shift to come out of the west and could pack
quite a punch overnight. The strongest winds are expected north
of I-80, which is where we`ve expanded the Wind Advisory
through Saturday morning. Wind gusts approaching or even
exceeding 45 mph are possible across the rest of Central PA,
too, so we may need to expand the Advisory there later today.
The wind should taper off by mid morning on Saturday with
Clipper pulling off the Atlantic Coast.

The Clipper will make some snow across the northern tier, too,
today and tonight. HREF probabilities and deterministic guidance
have a similar idea - generally a couple inches across the
northern tier with a coating possible basically down to I-80.
The temps during the middle of the day and the amount of sun
received before- hand in the central mtns will have a big say in
how much can actually stick. Temps are most favorable across
the north, and especially in the AM and again after the cold
front passes (lake effect) for snow to build up in the north.
Again, 1-3" amounts are most likely for the top tier of PA, and
T-1" for the other counties down south to the I-80 corridor.
Happy Valley may get a slushy coat of less then half of an inch,
but melting and vert temp profiles indicate a mix or even just
rain in the aftn here, locally.

Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s Friday night into early
Saturday, a big change from the recent warm weather.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Gusty winds return Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with a
temperature roller coaster and potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

A warm front will lift through PA on Sunday, perhaps bringing
some light snow accumulation across the northern tier.
Pennsylvania will be firmly in the warm sector ahead of a
rapidly-deepening low pressure system Sunday and Monday.
Southwest winds ahead of this system should help temperatures
rebound nicely for the second half of the weekend with highs
rising back into the upper 40s and 50s Sunday, and soaring into
the 60s on Monday. Dewpoints could approach 60F by Monday
afternoon, which is usually conducive for severe weather this
time of year.

As the surface low moves northeast through the Great Lakes, it
will rapidly deepen aided by a potent upper level trough. This
will support gusty southwest winds starting Sunday night and
continuing until the front passes through on Monday afternoon.
Ahead of this front, the warm sector should support a threat of
severe weather on Monday from the Carolinas northward into
southeast PA. The cold front will almost certainly bring a line
of showers and thunderstorms across the whole state, but the
best instability will be across southeast PA where the Storm
Prediction Center has drawn a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for
Monday. Scattered storms are possible out ahead of the cold
front and then a QLCS is a strong possibility owing to the
combination of a strong pressure fall/rise couplet, 50-70kt
850mb winds, and anomalous low-level shear. Model soundings and
hodographs depict a potent environment that could also produce
some tornadoes embedded within the QLCS. Cold front timing will
be critical for the most likely corridor of severe weather. A
faster progression would lessen the threat in southeast PA,
while a slower arrival could extend the threat farther west into
more of central PA.

After the cold front moves through, much colder air will push
back in later Monday. Accompanying the cold will also be more
gusty west winds. Similar to the current system, Wind Advisories
may be needed Monday night into Tuesday. Cold temps will stick
around into the middle of next week. Latest NBM guidance shows
highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees
below average, and 30 to 40 degrees colder than on Monday. A
true temperature roller coaster! Temperatures are progged to
moderate later next week, getting back to near average by
Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Winds have calmed over the last several hours and skies are now
mostly clear around the region save for some mid level stratus
over JST, providing VFR conditions across the region into
Friday morning. Mid and high clouds associated with a clipper
system move in from the west just before sunrise and will spread
eastward through the morning. The warm front associated with
this system will track through the region during the late
morning and early afternoon, bringing light snow showers to BFD
and IPT. Model RH profiles from the RAP and NAM suggest MVFR
ceilings and visibility are likely at BFD as these snow showers
move through, though the LAMP continues to show IFR conditions
developing. This appears to be an outlier. Additional rain and
snow showers are expected ahead of a cold front during the late
afternoon and evening. These appear more likely to result in IFR
restrictions at BFD. All other sites should remain VFR, though
IPT may see ceilings drop to MVFR late in the 00Z TAF period.
Overall confidence in impactful snowshowers outside of BFD is
low (<30%).

Wind gusts increase through the morning as a very tight
pressure gradient sets up across Central PA. Winds out of the
south- southwest will gust as high as 40 to 45 knots at BFD,
JST, and AOO, while all other sites will see gusts in the 25 to
35 knot range. LLWS concerns develop by 00Z Saturday at MDT and
LNS as the surface winds decrease slightly and winds 2000 feet
above the surface remain in the 40 to 50 knot range. Surface
winds at all other TAF sites will remain too high through the
end of the 00Z TAF period to include LLWS for now, but wind
shear may be a concern farther to the north and west Friday
night into Saturday morning.

Outlook...

Sat...Becoming VFR.

Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of
PA. Restrictions possible.

Mon...Cold frontal passage. Pre-frontal SHRA/TSRA with IFR
possible. Then turning blustery and colder. Post-frontal IFR or
low-MVFR cigs expected (90%) across the west, and IFR possible
N/W (60%).

Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN NW. IFR poss (40%).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
PAZ004-005-010-017-018-024-025-033-034.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday
for PAZ006-011-012-037-041-042.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen

Forecaster's
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