Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

236
FXUS61 KCTP 091126
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
626 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Continued to lower temperatures from NBM model guidance for
this morning based on radiational cooling across the entire
forecast area. Increasing precipitation mentions Tuesday and
into Thursday morning given low-level warm-air advection,
mentions mainly limited to slight chance outside of the northern
tier. Wind/gusts increased Tuesday-Thursday given relatively
tight surface pressure gradient.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Bitter cold continues this morning before a warming trend
emerges into the middle of the week.

2) Increasing chances of rain/snow showers on Tuesday, with the
chance for post-frontal snow showers west of the Alleghenies
Tuesday night through Wednesday.

3) Initial signals for potential accumulating snowfall across
much of central Pennsylvania this weekend, impacts not certain
at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Bitter cold continues this morning before a
warming trend emerges into the middle of the week.

Current temperatures have trended below NBM guidance so have
continued using the NBM10pct/MAV model guidance approach in the
near-term under ideal radiational cooling conditions across much
of central Pennsylvania. A light breeze has continued across
portions of the Laurel Highlands and eastern Pennsylvania, which
has allowed for less surface cooling; however, this has allowed
for wind chills to hover near/below 0F across much of the area
this morning. A couple more hours of cooling likely knocks a
couple more degrees down ahead of sunrise, so current forecast
remains mostly on track with no changes to the Cold Weather
Advisory, set to expire at 9AM EST.

All model guidance points towards a moderating trend for the
beginning of the week, with temperatures trending closer to
seasonal averages for the second week of February. Influence of
high pressure over the region likely allows for fairly decent
surface heating today; however, snow cover currently on the
ground could limit MaxTs reaching their full potential. Recent
HREF model guidance and RAP model guidance outline fair
agreement with respect to a layer of mid-to-high level clouds
limiting radiational cooling, which will assist in keeping MinTs
tonight much more tolerable than this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increasing chances of rain/snow showers on
Tuesday, with the chance for post-frontal snow showers west of
the Alleghenies Tuesday night through Wednesday.

An approaching shortwave passing through the region will lead a
slight increase in precipitation mentions across northwestern
and northern portions of central Pennsylvania late Tuesday
evening and into Wednesday afternoon. Cold air advection with
decent saturation in the lower levels of northern Pennsylvania
will lead to a slight uptick in precipitation mentions, highest
across the northern tier of Pennsylvania where *slightly* more
moisture will be available. Use of slightly in the previous
sentence is due to there being not a lot of available moisture
despite the ample lift in place; however, a slight uptick in
low-level moisture across the northern tier does promote
mentions (SChc) of at least some precipitation in this
timeframe.

In terms of precipitation types, model guidance continues to
outline a 850mb warm nose that could result in a brief period of
mixed precipitation before lower temperatures into Tuesday
night allows for snow to prevail as the predominant
precipitation type as the cold front passed through the region.
Main concern with precipitation would be colder temperatures
filtering into the region once again behind a cold frontal
passage, which could allow for any moisture on roadways to
freeze and lead to slick conditions. Gusty winds are also
expected with cold frontal passage as a fairly tight pressure
gradient, leading to an increase in winds/gusts from NBM model
guidance this cycle.

Some potential for lake effect snow showers will be possible
Wednesday afternoon and into the evening hours, despite much of
Lake Erie having an extensive amount of ice cover. Why lake
effect when Lake Erie is covered in ice? The aforementioned low-
level saturation and cold air advection would be the main
driver with respect to continuing lake effect snow showers
despite a frozen Lake Erie. Ice cover will allow for lower
snowfall totals; however, with many locations receiving less
than one inch of accumulation Wednesday afternoon-evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Initial signals for potential accumulating
snowfall across much of central Pennsylvania this weekend,
impacts not certain at this time.

Recent ENS/GEPS ensemble guidance has increased on the
potential for measurable snowfall across all of central
Pennsylvania with regards to an upcoming weekend system.
Deterministic ECMWF guidance has outlined a low pressure
stationed over the central Plains racing northeastward late
Saturday night into early Sunday morning which would be the main
driver with respect to precipitation. Recent GFS model guidance
initially showed some agreement with EC model guidance;
however, tracks a weaker area of low pressure further south with
limited precipitation mentions with an area of high pressure
over the region blocking any precipitation mentions for the
area. Another complicating factor with respect to the weekend
system will be temperatures, where rain could potentially be a
more dominant precipitation type and could limit snowfall
potential that ENS ensemble guidance is keying in on at this
time. Still a lot of uncertainty with respect to this system,
but still something to continue to monitor over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure over the region will allow for VFR conditions
under mainly clear skies this morning. Mid and high clouds
increase from the west during the afternoon ahead of an area of
low pressure that will track to our north on Tuesday. Moisture
will be very limited with this system, but a few snow showers
are possible across northwest PA in the early morning as a warm
front moves through. Ceilings gradually lower through the night,
but should remain VFR through 12Z Tuesday for all TAF sites.

Outlook...

Tue...Scattered rain/snow showers.

Wed-Thu...Small chance for some very light mixed precipitation,
mainly across the north. Trace amts.

Fri...Small chance for some very light snow across the south.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A record low temperature has preliminarily been set at Bradford
Regional Airport this morning (02/09) where as of 5AM EST, the
lowest temperature overnight in five-minute observations has
reached -12F. This would break the old record of 1F set back in
1963.

A record low temperature has preliminarily been set at Altoona
Blair County Airport this morning (02/09) where as of 5AM EST,
the lowest temperature overnight in five-minute observations has
reached 0F. This would break the old record of 1F set back in
1979.

The preliminary climate reports for these sites will be sent
out at 5PM this evening.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...NPB
KEY MESSAGES...NPB
DISCUSSION...NPB
AVIATION...Bauco
CLIMATE...NPB

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