Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

896
FXUS61 KCTP 080336
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1036 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe thunderstorm threat has ended for tonight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe threat has ended for tonight. A cold front later
tonight will bring a broken line of showers.

2) Significant early springtime warm-up expected into midweek
with a threat of severe weather on Wed followed by a cooldown to
end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe threat has ended for tonight. A cold
front later tonight will bring a broken line of showers.

Lingering showers across south central PA in advance of the cold
front continue to weaken in more stable air. The cold front
itself is still back over Ohio/Lake Erie as of 10 PM Fri. It
will push southeastward through central PA later tonight and
early into Sunday with a broken line of showers. Behind the
cold front on Sunday, morning clouds will give way to a sunny
afternoon with high temps in the 50s and 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant early springtime warm-up expected
into midweek with a threat of severe weather on Wed followed by
a cooldown to end the week.

Cool wedge pattern finally breaks down and allows for a
significant springtime warming from Sunday into the middle of
next week. Dry and breezy conditions on Monday could lead to
the first elevated risk of wildfire spread for the year, mainly
across the Lower Susq Valley, where soil moisture is lowest.

As heights build over the eastern US Tue-Wed, temps in central
PA may challenge daily records as they surge +20-30 degrees
above the historical average. With highs in the upper 60s-70s
and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more like an
average day in mid May than mid March.

A cold front will sweep through on Wednesday and Thursday as an
upper trough becomes negatively tilted. This will bring a threat
for severe weather on Wednesday, with a Slight Risk of severe
weather highlighted by SPC across northwest PA. As the base of
the trough swings through, a sharp temperature drop in the wake
of the cold front may result in any lingering postfrontal precip
changing over to snow Wed night into Thu. Gusty winds will also
accompany the system, with gusty southwest winds ahead of it
and brisk northwest winds behind it.

Remember, time to swing the clocks forward to EDT tonight.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wide range of conditions will prevail overnight with some
showers and low conditions at times. Expect conditions to
improve on Sunday, as the cold front moves southeast of the
area, and much drier advects in.

Overall most of Sunday into Monday will feature a return
to seeing the sun again, and VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Mon...A dry day with mainly VFR conditions.

Tue...Mainly dry again, with showers possible later in the day.

Wed...Restrictions likely in showers.

Thu...Windy and colder. Rain and snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Colbert/Martin

Forecaster's
Discussion: