Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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593 FXUS61 KCTP 160023 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 823 PM EDT Wed Apr 15 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Tweaked timing on convection this evening && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Severe threat over the northwest part of the CWA this evening. Much lower threat Thurs. 2) Dry, windy conditions Thurs may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. 3) Summer-like heat and humidity into Thursday. 4) Cold front brings precipitation and relief from summer heat late this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe threat over the northwest part of the CWA this evening. Much lower threat Thurs. Morning convection helped to raise dewpoints slightly, but they have started to lower with deeper mixing in between shots of forcing. Gusty SWrly wind is topped by Wrly flow in mid levels. The forecast soundings/profiles do support CAPE rising to 1000-1500 J/kg this afternoon and evening over the NW. Forcing from a short wave trough will arrive late in the day, and help flare some deep convection. Shear is close to 45KTs at BFD around 6 PM. Most num guid develops storms over nrn OH and slides it into Warren Co around 5 PM. Mid level flow of 60+ KTs, too. Fast moving storms with multi-cellular or even super- cellular mode are expected. Coverage is expected to increase through 8 or 9 PM before struggling to hold together and push too far S of I-80. An isolated storm or two could pop S of there, but we`ll have lots of CINH to erase for that to happen. The storms should start to wane as we lose heating and the trough passes to the east late this evening/early tonight. The threat for severe wx should be done by 10 or 11 PM. A weak boundary will likely lay out W-E right thru the middle of the CWA as they die off. The wet areas will probably develop some fog overnight. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry, windy conditions Thurs may lead to a increased risk of rapid wildfire spread. South of the boundary mentioned above will be dry as the drought conditions beget more drought for the southern third of the CWA. Dewpoints will drop into the lower 50s or even upper 40s over the southern half of the CWA, especially in the Laurels and south-central mountains. At the same time, the heat of Wed will be replicated. The resulting RHs will get into the 20s over the s-c mtns. Gradient winds will be 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts during the afternoon there, too. While the fine fuels are not dry enough to warrant a fire weather watch/red flag warning, the wind and low RH may warrant a mention more than here in the discussion. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Summer-like heat and humidity into Thursday. The main, wavy front will be laying out to our north for the next day and a half. Deep mixing here in the warm sector has already pushed temps well above normal, with 3 PM temps already near records in many spots and even higher than normal high temperatures in July. Expect this to repeat Thursday (tomorrow). The possibility of clouds and some morning fog across the nrn tier could hold them just a deg or two below what we see right now. The earlier boundary Additional showers/storms are expected Thurs in just about the same timing and location as this evening. The mid-level winds will not be as strong, though. So, the threat for severe weather is not as great nor as widespread as this evening - staying confined to the far NW. SPC MRGL is appropriate. ----------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 4: Cold front brings precipitation and relief from summer heat late this weekend. Low pressure rolls to the east along the main front to our N Thursday night. Fri looks mainly dry and 5-10F cooler, but Saturday holds the next chc for SHRA/TSRA. The bigger change will come later in the weekend as a significant cold front ushers in much, much colder air. In fact, Monday night could hold a freeze or frost for most of the CWA. New fcst takes everyone down AOB 32F. Monday will be 10-12F colder than Sunday as the big high pressure area floats in from central Canada. Day 6-7 look warmer again as we get into a SW flow due to the high sliding rather quickly east. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR is likely (70-80% chance) to prevail across most terminals tonight, though periods of at least MVFR restrictions may impact northern PA (KBFD/KIPT) through 12Z due to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Widespread VFR is likely (80-90% chance) from 12Z-21Z Thursday during a lull in rain/thunderstorm activity, with another round of scattered showers with perhaps a few thunderstorms reaching our western (KBFD/KJST) and central (KAOO/KUNV) airfields thereafter. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have congealed across northwestern PA this evening and are expected to impact KBFD between 01Z-03Z with a TEMPO for 4SM TSRA with gusts to around 23 kts, and to impact KIPT between 02Z-04Z with less confidence (PROB30 for 4SM -TSRA) given waning instability after sunset. While thunderstorms will remain possible across the Northern Tier (primarily KBFD) through 09Z as instability lingers, gradually stabilizing conditions with the loss of daylight limits wording to a PROB30 at this time. Widespread VFR is likely (80-90%) across most of our airfields after 12Z Thursday, though the LAMP has a low chance (20-30%) for MVFR ceilings around 2500-3000 ft at KBFD. Given that southwesterly winds will be increasing regionwide as a low pressure moves across the Great Lakes & daytime sunlight mixes out the boundary layer, I leaned toward NBM 75th percentile ceilings, which ultimately suggests VFR. After 21Z, a broken line of showers and thunderstorms will develop across western PA, with the HREF suggesting that this line will reach KBFD/KJST between 21Z-24Z, with lesser impacts at KAOO/KUNV/KIPT after 23Z as the line weakens upon encountering drier air. Outlook... Fri...Restrictions possible early, then improving to VFR in the afternoon. Sat-Sun...Restrictions in SHRA possible, transition to SHSN across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday morning. Mon...Lingering SHSN possible early across N PA with restrictions possible; otherwise, dry conditions with VFR prevailing. && .CLIMATE... Record high daily maxes and mins are possible this week as summerlike warmth visits the region. Here`s a look at the records as they stand right now, with a * indicating that the forecast is equal to or greater than the record. Record High Daily Max / Daily Min... For Harrisburg: April 15: 87* (1941) / 61* (2023) April 16: 89 (2002) / 63* (1941) April 17: 91 (2002) / 60* (2002) For Williamsport: April 15: 86 (1994) / 57* (2023) April 16: 90 (2002) / 55* (2023) April 17: 91 (2002) / 58* (1896) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Colbert DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Colbert AVIATION...Teare CLIMATE...Colbert |
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