Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

994
FXUS61 KCTP 240001
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
701 PM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Laurel
Highlands; all other winter headlines have been cancelled

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy with an additional 1-3 inches of snow over the Laurel
Highlands through early tonight

2) Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation Tuesday
night into the Wednesday morning commute

3) Mixed/wintry precip likely Thursday into Thursday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy with an additional 1-3 inches of snow
over the Laurel Highlands through early tonight

Seasonably cold NWly/upslope flow on the backside of mature
Nor`Easter blizzard will continue to drive lake/terrain
enhanced snow showers across the western Allegheny Plateau into
the Laurel Highlands into tonight. Expect an additional 1-3" of
snow through early tonight with the highest amounts on the
ridgetops and summits to the west of US-219.

Gusty winds 25-35 mph will produce some areas of blowing and
drifting snow before gradually subsiding into Tuesday. Wind
chills will drop into the negative single digits over the
western and northern mtns overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation
Tuesday night into the Wednesday morning commute

A clipper system tracking from northern MN through MI into
Upstate NY will bring warm advection snow Tuesday night through
Wednesday morning. Lake and orographically enhanced snow showers
likely continue to impact the western Allegheny mtns Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening. The best odds for plowable
(>2") snowfall is along and north/west of the I99/I80 corridor.
The snow and slippery road conditions would likely impact the
Wednesday morning commute and may result in travel/school
delays.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mixed/wintry precip likely Thursday into Thursday
night

Late week system tracking across the Mid-South toward the
Northeast U.S. has the potential to bring a broader area of
mixed/wintry precip Thursday-Thursday night. A band of sleet or
freezing rain is possible in the transition zone between snow
and plain rain. The details (ptypes, amounts) are still highly
dependent on the low track, with the best odds for plowable snow
across the northern tier (near and north of I-80) and best
chance for ice/rain from the PA Turnpike south to the MD line.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR ceilings currently being observed across the western
terminals (BFD/JST/AOO/UNV) are likely to continue throughout
much of the near-term, with localized IFR conditions in lake
effect and upslope snow showers (BFD/JST) through 24/06Z with
moderate (~50-60%) confidence in these occurring but most
uncertain with respect to exact timing of the restrictions at
BFD/JST. Outside of the slightly more aggressive forecast with
respect to IFR conditions, have also outlined some lowering of
the low-level cloud deck through 24/06Z at BFD/JST in the near-
term based on recent HREF model guidance. On the topic of HREF
model guidance, this forecast package has leaned heavily towards
a GLAMP/HREF blend given observational trends compared to
initialization on top of HREF model guidance typically handing
cloud cover across central Pennsylvania slightly better in the
near-term. This has led to the most change in the previous
forecast package with respect to ceiling timing/height,
especially at AOO/UNV. Overall, model guidance is in very low
agreement with respect to VFR/MVFR ceilings at UNV/AOO
throughout the overnight period; however, have decided to lean
towards the HREF solution of some scattering out of the low-
level deck and slight improvements towards VFR flight conditions
after 24/03Z with low-to-moderate (~30-40%) confidence.
Alternative solution would mainly be MVFR ceilings persisting
across AOO/UNV throughout 24/12Z; however, based on recent model
guidance and current observational trends this looks like the
lower probability solution at this time.

After 24/12Z, high (~90-100%) confidence in VFR conditions at
all airfields outside of BFD/JST based on a consensus of all
model and ensemble guidance. Pesky low-level ceilings at the
aforementioned terminals almost always overstays its welcome and
recent NBM/GLAMP model guidance has also honed in on this
solution, thus have continued MVFR mentions throughout the
morning hours, with RAP model soundings outlining best
approximate timing for ceilings lifting between 24/16Z and
24/20Z with high (~80%) confidence in VFR conditions at all of
central Pennsylvnaia`s airfields after 24/20Z and into the end
of the 00Z TAF package. Reprieve will be short-lived; however,
as slightly after the end of the 00Z TAF package, clipper system
tracking to the north will likely bring in restrictions with
early signs outlining BFD/JST most likely for restrictions,
followed by AOO/UNV/IPT, and lowest probabilities for
restrictions at MDT/LNS. More details on that to come with the
06Z TAF issuance, where the first mentions of lower ceilings and
visibilities might be needed.

Outlook...

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in rain/snow showers.

Sat...Mainly dry with VFR conditions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: