Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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378 FXUS61 KCTP 130943 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 543 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * The Wind Advisory has been expanded across the northern tier where confidence is highest in strong winds overnight. * Slight increase in snowfall amounts at higher elevations along and north of US-6 today and tonight. * SPC upgraded southeast PA to a Slight Risk of severe weather on Monday. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Strong winds expected this afternoon and overnight for most of Central PA along with a coating to a few inches of snow for the northern mountains. 2) Gusty winds return Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with a temperature roller coaster and potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong winds expected this afternoon and overnight for most of Central PA along with a coating to a few inches of snow for the northern mountains. The deep low pressure of an unusually strong Alberta Clipper will pass to our north today and tonight. As it does, it will bring some light to moderate precipitation, mainly along and north of I-80, along with gusty winds. During the afternoon, southerly winds will bring the best chance for gusts > 45mph along our western zones (along and west of the I-99/US-15 corridor). There could be some stronger wind gusts in the Lower Susquehanna Valley also, but not enough confidence to hoist an Advisory there at this point. Once the Clipper passes to our east, winds will shift to come out of the west and could pack quite a punch overnight. The strongest winds are expected north of I-80, which is where we`ve expanded the Wind Advisory through Saturday morning. Wind gusts approaching or even exceeding 45 mph are possible across the rest of Central PA, too, so we may need to expand the Advisory there later today. The wind should taper off by mid morning on Saturday with Clipper pulling off the Atlantic Coast. The Clipper will make some snow across the northern tier, too, today and tonight. HREF probabilities and deterministic guidance have a similar idea - generally a couple inches across the northern tier with a coating possible basically down to I-80. The temps during the middle of the day and the amount of sun received before- hand in the central mtns will have a big say in how much can actually stick. Temps are most favorable across the north, and especially in the AM and again after the cold front passes (lake effect) for snow to build up in the north. Again, 1-3" amounts are most likely for the top tier of PA, and T-1" for the other counties down south to the I-80 corridor. Happy Valley may get a slushy coat of less then half of an inch, but melting and vert temp profiles indicate a mix or even just rain in the aftn here, locally. Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s Friday night into early Saturday, a big change from the recent warm weather. KEY MESSAGE 2: Gusty winds return Sunday afternoon through Tuesday with a temperature roller coaster and potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening. A warm front will lift through PA on Sunday, perhaps bringing some light snow accumulation across the northern tier. Pennsylvania will be firmly in the warm sector ahead of a rapidly-deepening low pressure system Sunday and Monday. Southwest winds ahead of this system should help temperatures rebound nicely for the second half of the weekend with highs rising back into the upper 40s and 50s Sunday, and soaring into the 60s on Monday. Dewpoints could approach 60F by Monday afternoon, which is usually conducive for severe weather this time of year. As the surface low moves northeast through the Great Lakes, it will rapidly deepen aided by a potent upper level trough. This will support gusty southwest winds starting Sunday night and continuing until the front passes through on Monday afternoon. Ahead of this front, the warm sector should support a threat of severe weather on Monday from the Carolinas northward into southeast PA. The cold front will almost certainly bring a line of showers and thunderstorms across the whole state, but the best instability will be across southeast PA where the Storm Prediction Center has drawn a Slight Risk (Level 2 out of 5) for Monday. Scattered storms are possible out ahead of the cold front and then a QLCS is a strong possibility owing to the combination of a strong pressure fall/rise couplet, 50-70kt 850mb winds, and anomalous low-level shear. Model soundings and hodographs depict a potent environment that could also produce some tornadoes embedded within the QLCS. Cold front timing will be critical for the most likely corridor of severe weather. A faster progression would lessen the threat in southeast PA, while a slower arrival could extend the threat farther west into more of central PA. After the cold front moves through, much colder air will push back in later Monday. Accompanying the cold will also be more gusty west winds. Similar to the current system, Wind Advisories may be needed Monday night into Tuesday. Cold temps will stick around into the middle of next week. Latest NBM guidance shows highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees below average, and 30 to 40 degrees colder than on Monday. A true temperature roller coaster! Temperatures are progged to moderate later next week, getting back to near average by Thursday/Friday. && .AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Winds have calmed over the last several hours and skies are now mostly clear around the region save for some mid level stratus over JST, providing VFR conditions across the region into Friday morning. Mid and high clouds associated with a clipper system move in from the west just before sunrise and will spread eastward through the morning. The warm front associated with this system will track through the region during the late morning and early afternoon, bringing light snow showers to BFD and IPT. Model RH profiles from the RAP and NAM suggest MVFR ceilings and visibility are likely at BFD as these snow showers move through, though the LAMP continues to show IFR conditions developing. This appears to be an outlier. Additional rain and snow showers are expected ahead of a cold front during the late afternoon and evening. These appear more likely to result in IFR restrictions at BFD. All other sites should remain VFR, though IPT may see ceilings drop to MVFR late in the 00Z TAF period. Overall confidence in impactful snowshowers outside of BFD is low (<30%). Wind gusts increase through the morning as a very tight pressure gradient sets up across Central PA. Winds out of the south- southwest will gust as high as 40 to 45 knots at BFD, JST, and AOO, while all other sites will see gusts in the 25 to 35 knot range. LLWS concerns develop by 00Z Saturday at MDT and LNS as the surface winds decrease slightly and winds 2000 feet above the surface remain in the 40 to 50 knot range. Surface winds at all other TAF sites will remain too high through the end of the 00Z TAF period to include LLWS for now, but wind shear may be a concern farther to the north and west Friday night into Saturday morning. Outlook... Sat...Becoming VFR. Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of PA. Restrictions possible. Mon...Cold frontal passage. Pre-frontal SHRA/TSRA with IFR possible. Then turning blustery and colder. Post-frontal IFR or low-MVFR cigs expected (90%) across the west, and IFR possible N/W (60%). Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN NW. IFR poss (40%). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ004-005-010-017-018-024-025-033-034. Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ006-011-012-037-041-042. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen |
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