Heavy Snow and Disruptive Ice in the Upper Midwest; Severe Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains

A late season winter storm will produce a combination of heavy snow and disruptive ice starting this evening in the Northern Plains and moving into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by tonight continuing through Thursday. Severe thunderstorms will likely produce severe wind gusts, large hail, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall across the southern and central Plains into the morning. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

343
FXUS61 KCTP 020504
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
104 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Severe weather threat has ended for today. A few heavier
showers and thundershowers may continue to produce briefly
gusty winds below severe limits.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Severe weather threat has ended for today. A few heavier
showers and thundershowers may continue to produce briefly gusty
winds below severe limits.

2) Big temperature swings and periods of rain/thunderstorms
continue through Easter weekend into the first full week of
April.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Severe weather threat has ended for today. A few
heavier showers and thundershowers may continue to produce
briefly gusty winds below severe limits.

Heaviest rain is lining up along the I-80 corridor late this
evening. A few stronger showers and thundershowers have produced
wind gusts estimated 40-50 mph, but not much lightning at this
time signaling reduced instability. Clearfield County will need
to be monitored for additional rainfall as daily estimates are
near 1.50 inch and this spot has been hit with multiple rain
events in the past couple weeks.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Big temperature swings and periods of
rain/thunderstorms continue through Easter weekend into the
first full week of April

Thursday will be noticeably colder than the past few days. CAD
pattern behind east/southeast low level flow will drive
cool/moist air (highs 50-60F) into the eastern half of the
forecast area while downslope along and west to the Allegheny
Front sends temps into the 70-80F range in western PA. Big temp
swing #2: A major surge of warmth for early April returns to CPA
into Easter weekend with max temps fcst to approach and
potentially break daily records Friday and Saturday, April 3-4
(see climate section). A more intermittent, limited coverage
rainfall pattern is likely Friday into early Saturday.

Big temp swing #3 arrives Easter Sunday into Monday as a strong
cold front shifts eastward across the Appalachians to the
Atlantic coast. Rain and thunderstorms should accompany the cold
front across CPA on Sunday followed by noticeably cooler air.
A severe storm threat may develop depending on the degree of
pre-frontal destablization. Low temps Sunday night (Monday
morning) will be -15 to -20 degrees cooler than Saturday night
(Sunday morning).

The cooldown lasts into early next week (first full week of
April) with max temps fcst below the historical average Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A very strong push of cold and dry air pushed into the area
late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a gusty wind. The
cold air is not real deep, mainly pulled in by a low center
that formed just south of PA. This has resulted in a very
tight temperature gradient. Not many cases of such a sharp
drop in the temperature with a front. Normally the cold air
this side of the mountains takes time to work into the area.

Anyway, the main change I am working on for the 06Z TAF package
is to edge off the fog some, main thing will be low clouds that
will likely linger under the frontal inversion. With the dry
air in place and the bulk of the steady shower activity moving
out of the area early this morning, hard to see much in the way
of widespread fog.

After today, a strong southwest flow of warm air moves back
into the area for Friday into the first part of the weekend.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...VFR conditions and dry for much of the time, but some
showers and storms at times, as a frontal system will be nearby.

Sun...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms ahead
of a strong cold front.

Mon...Breezy and cooler with MVFR N/W, VFR elsewhere.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record max temperatures for April 3rd and 4th:

SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4
Harrisburg 86/1963 | 82/1999
Williamsport 83/1963 | 84/1921
Altoona 81/1963 | 80/1950
Bradford 80/2010 | 72/1981
State College 79/1963 | 81/1910

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Colbert/Bauco
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: