Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Pennsylvania Flood Awareness Week | March 16-20, 2026

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

707
FXUS61 KCTP 180700
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
300 AM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added mention of --SN to tonight over the far western zones
* Max temps were bumped up 3-5F Fri & Sat

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Temperatures start a steady climb today with a couple chances
for light precipitation through Friday.

2) Cold frontal passage Sunday should make widespread rain
showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow across the
north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Temperatures start a steady climb today with a
couple chances for light precipitation through Friday.

High pressure will reside overhead today and start to slide to
the east tonight. A warm front is expected to generate meager
lift, but the western mountains and that lift may squeeze out a
little light snow there tonight. Most everyone else should just
be cloudy. Any accumulations will be less than an inch, and that
would be most possible (40%) over Warren/McKean/Elk counties.
The 8H temps rise about 6C through the day, and help us get
about 8F warmer than Tuesday.

A compact Clipper will drop down from WI/MI, and generate a
meager attempt at generating precip Thursday aftn and evening.
Most models have temps warm enough at that time to keep it rain,
but the NE may have a mix/elevation snow. Still, the QPF is
<0.10, so any eventual accums on the grassy areas will be <1".
The PoPs will be highest (30s) in the N and SW. We may want to
eventually bump these PoPs up, but model consensus in precip
occurrence is low at this time. Add 8-10F onto maxes from Wed.

The atmosphere tries one more time to make light precip before
the start of the day Saturday (starting late Fri). This one
looks like the best chance (60-70 PoPs) of these three
attempts at precip. Despite dropping down from farther north
than the previous attempt, the sfc low deepens more, and the tap
of moisture from the S will be better, too. Generally <0.25"
QPF is seen as it crosses PA late Friday and Friday night.
Again, temps will be plenty warm enough for all rain. Since it
will be more energetic than Thursday`s shot, there will be a
slight/chc for TS across the SW. But, no worries for severe at
this time. Maxes should be another 6-10F warmer than the day
before.

----------------------------------
KEY MESSAGE 2: Cold frontal passage Sunday should make
widespread rain showers perhaps ending as a brief period of snow
across the north.

Most of Sat will be dry outside of a lingering morning SHRA in
the east. Temps warm a little more with 50-55F numbers across
the northern tier and 55-65F elsewhere. A couple of places in
the southern tier could take a run at 70F on Sunday before a
cold front brings clouds and numerous SHRA. Timing and
orientation of the front is a little unclear at this time, but
most models agree on the cold air getting into PA before the end
of the night/Monday morning. Mon morning temps should be in the
20s N. That drastic change will take place while precip may be
falling Sunday night. So, there should be some mix/snow at the
end of the precip. It should be generally minor, with probs of
3"+ of snow 20pct in the far N and nil elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Largely unrestricted/VFR conditions are anticipated through
Wednesday. Tonight will see mostly clear skies across all of
the central Pennsylvania outside of the far northwest where lake
effect winds keep clouds overhead at BFD. These ceilings could
be MVFR to IFR at times, but largely expect VFR to prevail.
Gusty surface winds out of the W-NW into early evening, will
diminish tonight, then be fairly light on Wednesday (5 kt or
less).

Clear skies expected for most of today with high pressure taking
control of the Mid-Atlantic region. The next chance for
restrictions and precipitation will come on Thursday as a
surface trough drifts across the region bringing light rain and
a few snow showers to PA.

Outlook...

Thu-Sun...VFR to MVFR with ocnl light rain or snow.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Bowen

Forecaster's
Discussion: