Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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777 FXUS61 KCTP 231057 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 657 AM EDT Mon Mar 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Decreased thunderstorm chances throughout the rest of the overnight period. * Slight decrease in freezing rain/drizzle potential, isolated slick spots still possible for the Monday morning commute. * Full-sail changes to precipitation forecast through the evening hours with lake effect snow showers. * Introduced some wording for the potential for snow squalls, mainly north of the I-80 corridor, this afternoon/evening. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Rain continues overnight as temperatures drop across all of central Pennsylvania. Light freezing rain brining a glaze of ice possible across northeastern Pennsylvania. 2) Lake effect and upslope snow showers possible across northern and western Pennsylvania late this morning through the evening hours. Heavier snow showers/squalls possible across mainly the northern tier of Pennsylvania. 3) Next window of increased precipitation chances comes with another cold frontal passage Thursday and into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain continues overnight as temperatures drop across all of central Pennsylvania. Light freezing rain brining a glaze of ice possible across northeastern Pennsylvania. Recent KCCX radar outlines a shield of rain with isolated thunderstorms across portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley as of 07Z/3am EDT. Previous model guidance runs tried to indicate some potential for re-firing of convection across out southern tier counties over the next couple of hours; however, this is beginning to look more unlikely. In terms of instability, recent Mesoanalysis parameters outline extremely little to work with to get some organized thunderstorm activity with more stable air in place. Given this, have trended back thunderstorm mentions over the next couple of hours, eliminating all mentions by 5AM EDT. Surface-based LIs also highlight a brief window across portions of south-central PA over the next couple of hours, so this slightly gives higher confidence in this line of thinking. Keeping a window this wide for thunderstorms might even be to optimistic for those wanting a couple rumbles of thunder overnight; however, there remains a non-zero chance that cannot be one hundred percent ruled out. Based on current observational/radar trends, the potential for freezing rain/drizzle might be slightly decreasing across portions of NE PA over the next couple of hours, too. Ample low- level moisture observed in recent RAP soundings cannot eliminate this threat entirely either, thus we`re continuing to monitor these trends for any potential concerns for the Monday morning commute. One area of concern could be with respect to wet surfaces beginning to freeze as temperatures continue to drop overnight into Monday morning. Observations are trending slightly cooler than previous forecasts, so we`re looking at areas mainly north of I-80 for isolated slick spots due to wet surfaces freezing over the next couple of hours. Roadway temperatures across the northern tier continue to remain largely above freezing; however, noticing portions of Tioga, Lycoming, and Potter counties starting to trend closer to the freezing mark where we might start seeing concerns as we get closer to sunrise. Mentions continue in the HWO, at this juncture an SPS ahead of travel this morning appears to be the course of action. KEY MESSAGE 2: Lake effect and upslope snow showers possible across northern and western Pennsylvania late this morning through the evening hours. Heavier snow showers/squalls possible across mainly the northern tier of Pennsylvania. As the cold front continues to drop south of the region (the cause for the cooler temperatures that could bring isolated slick spots for the morning commute), northwesterly flow begins to become more uniform across much of the forecast area. This opens the door for lake effect snow showers across the favored lake effect regions of our forecast area. Based on this set-up, full sail changes to NBM PoPs much of Monday are warranted. At this time, onset timing based on recent hi-res model/ensemble guidance tends to be mid-to-late morning as (current) northerly flow begins to get the slight westerly component it needs to push showers into portions of Warren, McKean, and Potter counties. This will simultaneously allow for some potential for upslope snow showers across the Laurels in the same timeframe; however, less confident on upslope showers down that way. Once the aforementioned lake effect snow showers begin later this morning, expect these to linger around through much of the day for select areas north of I-80. Lake effect snow at this time appears to be more of the classic streamers as opposed to the cellular nature of snow showers last week so highest confidence in any precipitation mentions the further north/west you go in the forecast area. Recent NAM model guidance outlines potential for these showers to extend further down and suggest as far south as AOO/RVL might be in play, but this is a lower confidence solution at this time and will need to be refined closer to the time. Recent SNSQ Parameter from the NAM/GFS outlines some heavier snow showers/squalls will be possible across the northern tier within these lake effect streamers and these cannot be completely ruled out especially north of I-80. This also aligns fairly well with recent HREF model guidance indicating a thin axis of SBCAPE, highest mainly along and north of the US-6 corridor of northern PA. A brief window does exits; however, where I-80 could be in play generally during the afternoon/evening hours. Further timing and intensity refinement will likely come in future forecast packages based on current observational/radar trends, but will bear watching given the slight uptick in SNSQ parameter over previous model cycles. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Rain is exiting the southeast airspace as colder NNW flow ramps up from 310-360 degrees. LIFR/IFR cigs should trend to MVFR and eventually low end VFR. Sfc wind gusts 25-35kt are possible this afternoon. Don`t think the models are bullish enough on rain/snow showers developing downwind of Lake Erie this afternoon across the western Alleghenies and have included some prelim -shsn at KBFD and KJST. High pressure slides over CPA Tuesday and should provide widespread VFR. Outlook... Wed-Thu...Light rain may brush the northern tier. Thu night-AM Friday...Rain with restrictions likely. Fri PM...Breezy with light rain exiting the southern tier. && .CLIMATE... For March 22nd, Harrisburg tied the daily record high (80) and Altoona set a new daily record high (83). The previous record highs were 80 (1938) and 81 (1966). && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Beaty KEY MESSAGES...Beaty DISCUSSION...Beaty AVIATION...Steinbugl CLIMATE...Steinbugl |
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