Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

221
FXUS61 KCTP 132243
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
643 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* The Wind Advisory has been expanded a bit further into parts
of the Middle and Lower Susquehanna Valleys, as well as the
Poconos, through early Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Strong winds expected through tonight and into Saturday
morning for most of Central PA, along with a coating to a few
inches of snow for the northern mountains.

2) Gusty winds return Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with a
temperature roller coaster, and potential for strong to severe
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Strong winds expected through tonight and into
Saturday morning for most of Central PA, along with a coating
to a few inches of snow for the northern mountains.

A potent upper-level disturbance will track across upstate NY
late this afternoon, and eventually through southeast Canada
tonight and early Saturday. As it does so, a trailing surface
cold front will cross the Commonwealth through this evening.

Most of our near-term guidance is suggesting that a band of rain
and snow showers will form along the above mentioned cold front
later this afternoon, and quickly cross PA this evening. For
areas north of I-80, where temperatures are colder, a quick
burst of snow is foreseen, which could sharply reduce
visibilities and produce locally slick roads. We will be
monitoring the far northern tier of the state for any flash
freeze/snow squall potential into the evening. Farther south,
where surface temperatures are milder, just a brief shot of
gusty rain showers are anticipated.

Late tonight and into Saturday, strong westerly winds are still
expected. Isallobaric forcing and a deeper layer of steep lapse
rates in the lower part of the atmosphere points to the
strongest gust potential (perhaps as high as 45-55 mph) across
the Laurel Highlands and also areas near and north of I-80.
However, even a bit farther to the southeast into parts of the
Susquehanna Valley and the Pocono plateau, occasional gusts
could eclipse 45 mph, thus the above mentioned expansion of the
Wind Advisory. Winds should gradually subside Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening, as the pressure gradient relaxes.

A relatively brief period of cold advection crossing Lake Erie
and interacting with downstream terrain will produce periods of
snow for the northern snow belt areas (Warren, McKean, and parts
of Potter counties). Current expectations are for 1-3" of snow
locally, mostly over the higher terrain and north of US-6.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Gusty winds return Sunday afternoon through Tuesday,
with a temperature roller coaster, and potential for strong to
severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening.

Another potent disturbance will emerge out of the Plains states
on Sunday, eventually tracking through the Great Lakes and the
northeastern states by early next week. A strong cold front tied
to the main surface wave is expected to slice through the
Commonwealth Monday afternoon and evening.

Strengthening S-SW flow in the expanding warm sector will
overspread PA later Sunday and into Monday, with gusty
conditions again returning.

We continue to monitor the potential for strong-severe
thunderstorms along and just ahead of the aforementioned cold
frontal passage later Monday afternoon into the early evening
hours. We have high confidence at this early stage that it will
relatively warm for mid-March, as well as strongly sheared.
However, smaller scale and less predictable factors like cloud
cover/associated instability, as well as convective mode
(discrete vs. linear, or a combination thereof), still need to
be worked out, and probably won`t really be known until we head
into Monday. Stay tuned for later forecasts/updates.

We also have relatively high confidence that it will remain
windy and turn sharply colder later Monday night and Tuesday.
Some areas may see a 30+ degree temperature difference on the
negative side for Tuesday, as compared to Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Early evening update. Adjusting TAFS for gusty winds associated
with strong mixing of winds aloft downward, as the evaporation
of precipitation aloft occurs and in line with strong pressure
falls.

Will adjust more for the 00Z TAFS.

Earlier discussion below.

Potent/energetic system moving through will be ramping up the
wind speeds and gusts shortly. Some have already gusted near
40kt (JST AOO). Despite the gustiness, we have included mentions
of LLWS for tonight. While we don`t regularly include LLWS
mentions when gusts are almost as high as the shearing layer, we
felt it importnat to highlight them this time to bring some
extra attention to the wind forecast for the next 24 hrs. Strong
srly flow now will switch to the west as the cold front moving
through OH at 18Z arrives and passes thru PA. The clouds/visbys
are all VFR at the moment, but BFD is expected to dip to IFR for
a few hours - or at least parts of hours - for two periods:
later this aftn and then again after midnight. The reductions
are not certain with cross-lake flow very strong and mostly
straight westerly. That will likely keep much of the SHSN up in
wrn NY. Other than BFD`s problems, the wind will be just about
the only flying-condition trouble elsewhere. While some MVFR
(bkn-ovc030) clouds re-establish themseleves across many
terminals overnight, they will be gone in the morning. The wind
will be slowing in the morning, too. But, gusts will remain in
the 20s for most sites for the entire day Sat even as upper
heights rise and sfc high nears. Sat night, the ridge will be
overhead, and wind should finally die off. But...another storm
system will move toward the state from the northern Plains.

Then, Sun: Low clouds creep in from the S. MVFR cigs certain
(90%), IFR possible (50%). Rain and snow showers possible across
the northern half of PA as a warm front lifts thru. LLWS
certain (80%).

Outlook...

Mon...VERY strong cold fropa. Pre-frontal SHRA/TSRA with IFR
possible. Then turning blustery and colder. Post-frontal MVFR
cigs for most of the area. IFR likely N/W (60%) due to clouds
and/or SHSN.

Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN NW. IFR poss (50%) at BFD, (30%) JST.

Wed...Warm fropa. -SN or -RA poss (30%) NW.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ004-005-010-
017.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ006-011-012-018-
019-026>028-035>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for PAZ024-025-033-034.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ064>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Jurewicz
KEY MESSAGES...Jurewicz
DISCUSSION...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Dangelo/Martin

Forecaster's
Discussion: