Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

399
FXUS61 KCTP 101219
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
719 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Holding off on any winter weather advisories for possible ice
accums for E/NE this evening-SW later tonight
* Lowering confidence in winter storm during Sun-Mon timeframe

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light precip possible later today and this evening, with
light post-frontal snow showers and gusty winds over the
Alleghenies later tonight through Wednesday night.

2) Lowered confidence in occurrence of precipitation Sun-Mon.
Confidence in timing of possible precip is slightly higher.
Confidence in precip types/amounts remain low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light precip possible later today and this
evening, with light post-frontal snow showers and gusty winds
over the Alleghenies later tonight through Wednesday night.

Wave passing overhead is finally dropping some -SN over BFD, JHW
and ERI, but it has taken many hours to have it break through
the uber-dry air in the llvls. The wave will be slow to slide
east, so we have kept the low-end PoPs over the nrn tier through
the morning. But, by 18Z it looks like it will be to our east.

The next wave will have meager moisture aloft but the llvls will
have been moistened up by this first wave and srly wind. Temps
get into the 40s for the first time in what seems like a very
long time for the SWrn half of the CWA. The temps in the NW
when the cold front arrives will be mild enough to have the
precip melt to rain before hitting the ground. But, the moisture
is rather meager. So, there is still a big question as to the SE
extent/reach of precip. PoPs not even worth 50pct over any of
the CWA even at this close range. The highest number will be
over Somerset Co this evening. Low confidence (20-30 PoPs)
over the eastern CWA are more-worrisome, as CAD and lower
daytime temps, esp in the NE mtns, could end up generating ZL/ZR
if precip manages to get to the ground there tonight. With such
low confidence in occurrence of measurable precip, let alone
freezing precip, we`ll hold off on a winter wx advy for freezing
rain at this point. Similarly, after the front passes thru the
SW, there could also be a patch or two of ZL/ZR in the Laurels
(which would be later tonight and early Wed). Have continued
mentions of freezing precip, but very low confidence will lead
us to hold off on any WWA products there, too. Dayshift may get
a better handle on these issues. Any impacts would likely be very
minor due to the patchiness of any ZL/ZR. A mention will be made
in the HWO, though.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Lowered confidence in occurrence of
precipitation Sun-Mon. Confidence in timing of possible precip
is slightly higher. Confidence in precip types/amounts remain
low.

Key message pretty much spells it out. Some aspects of the
forecast for a storm for Sun-Mon are looking more-likely while
others are trending less likely. All of the numerical guidance
continue to develop a storm associated with the eventual
eastward translation of a closed low currently off the NorCal
Coast. The Cali low drops southward as it opens a bit, and
takes a turn to the east after reaching the Baja Peninsula.
The trough swings east over the srn US, and eventually develops
a sfc low as Gulf moisture is incorporated. Timing and
occurrence are fairly well-agreed-upon at that point. Mud gets
thrown onto the crystal ball as divergence in track of the low
and depth/residence of the cold air over the ern US are seen in
the latest deterministic forecasts.

If precip gets into PA, the hints are still there that the air
will be cold enough in PA to have some snow at first, but not a
slam dunk certainty. As alluded to, the GFS and ECMWF, and
ECMWF-AI latest (00Z) runs are keeping the low track flatter.
That would make much, if not all, of the precip miss PA to the
south. But, ensemble means from both sides of the pond and nord
de la frontiere make precip well into PA with the CMCE mean
pushing the most QPF into PA - and much farther north. PoPs in
National Blend seem much more certain (60-70 PoPs) of precip
occurrence over (all of) PA than this recent trend of
drier/flatter track. Without a longer time for this trend
(rather than just one run), we`ll roll with the NBM for the
time being as swings either way are absolutely expected at this
range (DAY 6). Will continue to keep an eye for a more
consistent/longer trend to make tweaks to Sun-Mon.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period,
with high (~80%) confidence in these conditions continuing
through 10/20Z. The main area of concern for lower conditions
would be at BFD between 10/12Z and 10/14Z, where there is a low
(~20%) probability in light snow reaching the ground and
bringing drops towards MVFR visibilities. Given this is a low
probability, retained mentions out of the 12Z TAFs. Ceilings
will generally remain above 5,000ft AGL in the aforementioned
timeframe, with some periodic breaks outlined in more recent
HREF/GLAMP model guidance.

After 10/20Z, increasing confidence in MVFR-to-IFR conditions
through the end of the 12Z TAF package at all airfields outside
of MDT/LNS, as increasing low-level moisture and lift allowed
for precipitation mentions across NW PA (BFD). Precipitation
gradually fills in SW to NW throughout the rest of the TAF
period, with most areas outside of BFD/IPT experiencing rain as
the predominant precipitation type. More recent HREF model
guidance indicates a period of SHRA/SHSN with IPT will bring
higher potential for FZRA mentions given slightly warmer air
aloft. Recent model guidance has trended drier so did hone in
one more certain timeframe and shifted mentions at AOO/UNV back
towards PROB30s this cycle. Precipitation mentions fall off
area wide after 11/06Z at the latest; however, ample low-level
moisture could lead to DZ/FZDZ mentions at JST between 11/06Z
and 11/12Z. Signals for LLWS concerns continue to maximize
across much of W PA & SE PA between 10/16Z and 11/03Z based on
recent NAM model guidance so have indicated these conditions in
the newest 06Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Sub-VFR most likely at KBFD and KJST with periods of
snow showers.

Fri-Sat...Improving conditions late week into the weekend;
monitoring potential for winter weather by Sunday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
New records set on February 9th:

* Bradford set a new record low temperature of -19 degrees,
breaking the old record of -12 degrees set in 1963.

* Altoona set a new record low temperature of -3 degrees,
breaking the old record of 1 degree set in 1979.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Beaty
CLIMATE...Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: