Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

047
FXUS61 KCTP 190319
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1019 PM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added thunder to the far NW until Midnight.

* Dense fog advisory for central and north central PA until
9 AM Thursday.

* Still a threat of light freezing rain in the Endless
Mountains late Thursday night into early Friday, although it
looks more spotty in nature at this point.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Early Spring-like pattern continues through late week with
periods of rain, areas of dense fog, and elevated ice jam risk

2) Ice glaze possible late Thursday night into Friday morning
across the Endless Mountains of north-central and northeast PA

3) Seasonably colder to close out the weekend into early next
week, with some potential for accumulating snow from Sunday
into Sunday night

4) Dense fog overnight for north central and central PA

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Early Spring-like pattern continues through late
week with periods of rain, areas of dense fog, and elevated ice
jam risk

A few showers over the area this evening, mainly across the
east. Area of storms over southwestern Ontario, north of the
warm front. Watching temperatures along the NY, PA, NJ border
areas, given tight temperature gradient. I did not expect much
rainfall during the day on Wed, but observed amounts will not
much of anything, less than even .25 inches at BFD.

Overnight and Thursday morning.

Added thunder to the far NW until Midnight, based on nearby
obs and radar.

AOO and JUST into the warmer air with a bit of wind as of mid
evening.

Earlier information below.

Main issue will be extensive low clouds and fog, some dense
at times into Thursday morning. Much of Thursday may turn out
to be like today, extensive cloud cover and still some fog later
in the day.

For later Thursday.

Showers work into the southwest late in the afternoon.

From late in the day Thursday, through Thursday night, and into
early Friday, another spoke of upper-level energy will encroach
on PA, along with renewed low-level warm and moist advection.
As a result, we expect an area of rain (mostly light) to
translate across the region. Although the mid-levels of the
atmosphere are expected to stay warm and support rain drops as
the hydrometeor type, surface temperatures could drop to near
the freezing mark late Thursday night into early Friday over the
Endless Mountains (particularly areas north and northeast of
Williamsport). As a a result, we`re continuing to monitor these
areas for the potential of at least patches of freezing rain.

Given the expectation of some rainfall and continued snowmelt
through the end of the week, we`ll remain vigilant of the ice
jam risk.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Ice glaze possible late Thursday night into
Friday morning across the Endless Mountains of north-central and
northeast PA

As mentioned in the above section, a period of steady rainfall
and near 32f surface temperatures are foreseen later Thursday
night and early Friday across the Endless Mountains. From this
early vantage point, it seems that the higher elevations would
stand the best chance of seeing light ice accretions (we`re
talking 0.1" or less). Although an eventual Winter Weather
Advisory remains in the cards, we want to see higher confidence
in sub-freezing boundary layer conditions before issuing.

A slow climb in surface temperatures is expected by Friday
afternoon, with even the colder spots in the Endless Mountains
likely above freezing by early afternoon. Steadier rain should
also be tapering off by then, as the latest upper wave pushes
northeast of the Commonwealth.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Seasonably colder to close out the weekend into
early next week, with some potential for accumulating snow from
Sunday into Sunday night

There is high confidence in the influx of colder air from Sunday
into early next week, as a larger-scale and progressive upper-
level trough drops into the eastern CONUS.

As this pattern evolves, cyclone development appears likely
along the east coast Sunday into Monday. Although the track and
intensity of the surface storm center still differ from model to
model, there appears to be reasonable model consensus that an
upper low will close off and deepen as it pivots across the
Commonwealth. The result could be a period of snow for portions
of PA from Sunday into Sunday night, with early indications
favoring the Alleghenies for potentially several inches of
snowfall.

Since we`re still a number of days out and significant
uncertainty remains, please stay tuned to the latest forecast
updates over the coming days.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Observations across central and north central
PA show the more extensive dense fog there, so a dense fog
advisory until 14Z (9 AM). The southwest areas like JST have a
gusty wind and are up in the 50 degree range. While fog is
across the rest of the area, like last night, no trend toward
going dense at this point. Will continue to monitor.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low clouds and reduced visibilities will continue to stick
around for this evening and through Thursday morning. light
winds and shallow moisture suggests fog redevelopment overnight,
with widespread MVFR/IFR visibilities expected. LIFR has
already been observed over portions of central PA with fog
present near UNV and IPT. Periods of LIFR fog may also be
observed across areas such as the Lower Susquehanna Valley early
in the morning, along the lines of how last night`s fog
progressed.

Thursday afternoon, some parts of south central PA have a very
low probability of observing thunder with the rain showers
moving through during afternoon and evening, though
probabilities were low enough to keep out of TAFs. Some elevated
instability will be present, but overall confidence is low for
thunder reaching the airspace. There will be a brief period of
improving conditions on Thursday as ceilings will raise to MVFR
or low end IFR, but with additional rain expected to arrive
these improvements will not last long.

Outlook...

Thu...Dry early, then rain later in the day with restrictions
possible.

Fri...Rain with restrictions likely. Some snow may mix in over
northern PA.

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.

Sun...Potential for restrictions in snow showers.

Mon...Potential for restrictions in snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for PAZ004>006-
010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Jurewicz/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Jurewicz/Martin
DISCUSSION...Jurewicz/Martin
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen/Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: