Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

565
FXUS61 KCTP 301219
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
719 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Cold Weather Advisory issued 7PM this evening to 10AM Saturday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Prolonged hazardous cold threat continues into the weekend
2) Windy start to February
3) Accumulating snow possible Wednesday 2/4

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Prolonged hazardous cold threat continues into
the weekend

The peak of the cold is approaching with record challenging
minimum temperatures this morning and tonight/AM Saturday. We
would not be surprised to see a few local observations
(overnight minimum temperatures or wind chills) getting close
to extreme cold criteria. Additional Cold Weather Advisories are
probable for Saturday night. We are into the late innings of
the prolonged hazardous cold event which will come to an end by
Groundhog Day. Temperatures are forecast moderate a bit next
week, but it will still be cold for this time of year with
highs remaining below the freezing mark in most of CPA.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Windy start to February

As the storm pulls away from the coast on Sunday, the tightening
pressure gradient will result in wind gusts of 25-35 mph across
the area. A brisk and cold start to February.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Accumulating snow possible Wednesday 2/4

NBM/NBMv5 are signaling a broad area of light snow accumulation
(1-3") on Wednesday Feb. 4th. GEFS/EPS and their respective AI
ensembles show slight differences with the north/south QPF
placement and timing/speed that can be expected with a
developing low pressure system at this range. We will continue
to track this system, but wanted to highlight the potential for
minor winter weather/travel impacts around the middle of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Similar to the previous 2 few mornings, a northwest flow
carrying thin, cold stratocu clouds from limited moisture being
picked up from the partially ice-covered Great Lakes.

Much of this cloud layer resides within the favorable thermal
zones for dendritic snow growth, so flurries will occur at
times.

The most likely locations for this and ocnl mvfr cigs and vsbys
will be BFD and JST (where the base of the subsidence inversion
climbs to between 6-7 kft agl tonight), but also possible at
UNV and AOO. Further east, higher cloud bases will occur with
less of a chance for this activity.

Otherwise, look for VFR conditions today through tonight.

Another chance of more thin clouds with flurries again tonight.

The upcoming weekend continues to look mainly dry, but expect
winds to pick up on Sunday, as an intense coastal low deepens
to the east of the Delmarva and Carolina Coast.

Like several Monday`s so far this season, warm advection may
result in some light snow later Monday into early Tue.

Outlook...

Sat...Periods of generally light lake effect and upslope snow
showers remain possible across N/W PA, with restrictions
possible; otherwise, chilly and breezy areawide.

Sun...Around a 10 to 20 percent chance of light snow at
LNS early, otherwise dry. Becoming windy, esp. at MDT
and LNS.

Mon...Increasing clouds, with a slight chance of light
snow late across the north and west.

Tue...Perhaps some patchy light snow early at BFD and
JST, but mainly dry.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Daily record-challenging temperatures possible to close out
January:

01/30 Daily Record Minimum Max temps
MDT: 13 in 1934
IPT: 12 in 1934
AOO: 11 in 1966
BFD: -1 in 1977
STC: 12 in 1977

01/30 Daily Record Minimum temps
MDT: 2 in 1934
IPT: -6 in 1948
AOO: -3 in 2019
BFD: -14 in 1965
STC: -10 in 1977

01/31 Daily Record Minimum temps
MDT: 2 in 1948
IPT: -14 in 1948
AOO: -4 in 2019
BFD: -13 in 2019
STC: -9 in 1948

State College has a very good shot of tying the second longest
run (7) of consecutive days with max temp <= 20F (1/25-1/31).
The last time this occurred was post-Christmas 2017 (12-28-2017
to 01-03-2018). The longest run of 10 days occurred in January
1893 from the 11th-20th.

Top 3 coldest last week/7 days of January (mean temp 1/24-1/31)
for State College

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST
Saturday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: