Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

News Headlines

Pennsylvania Severe Weather Awareness Week | April 13-17, 2026

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

969
FXUS61 KCTP 180147
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
947 PM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Increasing confidence in damaging frost/freeze Monday &
Tuesday morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Warmer than average temperatures and dry weather expected
through at least early afternoon Saturday.

2) A cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms (some
could be severe in western PA) later Saturday

3) A damaging frost/freeze is likely Monday and Tuesday
morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Warmer than average temperatures and dry weather
expected through at least early afternoon Saturday.

As the surface high moves to the east tonight with SW flow
developing aloft once again, 850 temperatures get back to 5-10C
above average. At the sfc, winds will veer from N early tonight
to E and S by daybreak. Easterly flow will advect a marine layer
into the Lower Susq Valley, with a stratus deck likely to begin
the day Saturday. However, much of the guidance has this
stratus deck burning off by the afternoon. High temps on Sat
range from the upper 60s to low 70s in the northeast to the low
80s in the southwest.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front will bring showers and
thunderstorms (some could be severe in western PA) later
Saturday

A strong cold front moves in late in the day Saturday bringing
a threat of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
overnight. Timing of the front moving through PA is early
evening through the overnight hours from west to east. Given the
later timing of the front, western PA has the better chance of
seeing stronger thunderstorms with better instability from day
time heating. SPC has highlighted a marginal risk (1/5) for
State College and west, with the slight risk (2/5) expanded to
include almost everywhere west of Altoona.

Looking at forecast soundings in western PA, dry air in the low
levels helps lead to high cloud bases with an inverted V
sounding below the LCL heights. CAPE is tall and skinny but with
some curvature to the hodographs, some isolated supercells are
possible if cells can remain discrete which will be tough given
the strength of the cold front so some hail is possible but will
be isolated. There is a slight risk (2%) of tornadoes in NW PA
where there is better low level moisture and better surface
based instability but LCLs are a little high. Strong wind gusts
will be the primary concern with the high LCLs, steep low level
lapse rates, as well as some dry air in the mid levels that can
entrain into updrafts and lead to stronger downdrafts. The
threat for severe thunderstorms falls off quick after dark as
those low level lapse rates go away with overnight cooling.
Temperatures fall off overnight and into Sunday as a much colder
air mass moves into place for early next week.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: A damaging frost/freeze is likely Monday and
Tuesday morning.

The significant cold front ushers in much colder air beginning
Saturday night. In fact, there could even be some snow showers
on Sunday as 850 mb temperatures fall to near -10C. While it
will be getting near freezing in the NW half of the CWA Sunday
night/Mon AM, Sunday night may be too windy for frost to form.
Some places will get down to freezing, which will necessitate a
Freeze Warning being issued at some point. The most likely time
frame for sub-freezing temps areawide is Monday night/Tuesday
AM. On Monday morning, freezing temperatures are most likely
along, north, and west of the I-99/I-80 corridor. On Tuesday
morning, freezing conditions are favored down to the I-81
corridor with frost conditions southeast of there.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
All sites VFR as of 01z Sat. A marine layer moving in from the
east late tonight could bring some MVFR or IFR cigs to MDT, LNS,
and even IPT after 9Z and lasting until 15-17z before
scattering out. Otherwise to the west of the marine layer,
clouds are expected to be scattered with high bases. Showers
and thunderstorms will start to impact western airfields by
20-23Z. Lightning activity will wane as storms continue moving
east after 00Z Sun. However periods of showers will continue
into Sat night. Winds will shift and become NW later Sat night
with gusts to 20-30 kts.

Outlook...

Sun...Restrictions in -SHRA possible mainly N/W, transition to
SHSN across higher elevations overnight Sunday night into Monday
morning.

Mon...Lingering -SHSN possible early N/W; otherwise, dry
conditions with VFR prevailing.

Tue...Dry with VFR conditions prevailing early, rain showers
possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

Wed...NW flow with potential restrictions and a chc of -SHRA
N/W

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Colbert
DISCUSSION...Colbert/BGM
AVIATION...Colbert/BGM

Forecaster's
Discussion: