Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

753
FXUS61 KCTP 082342
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
642 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Cold Weather Advisory issued for most of the area tonight
into early Monday morning

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) One more bitter cold night before frigid conditions ease for
the second week of February

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: One more bitter cold night before frigid
conditions ease for the second week of February

One of the coldest late January-early February periods on record
is [thankfully] about to come to an end. To cap it off, we will
have to endure one more bitter cold night/early Monday morning.

This time around, cold wx headlines are triggered based on a mix
of minimum air temperatures (west-central PA) and minimum wind
chills (east-central PA). The floor for min temps around KBFD
is in the -20 to -25F range based on traditional GFS/MAV MOS
guidance. We employed a hedged approach (blending base NBM with
5-10%tile and MAVMOS) taking into account some factors (clouds
or a light breeze) that may prevent "elite" radiational cooling
from playing out. That being said, we still felt leaning colder
was the best bet under clear skies/calm winds with snow on the
ground and 1030mb high settling right over NW PA by 12Z Monday.
Cold weather advisory is in effect from 10PM tonight to 9AM
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure will result in a very cold night, as skies
will be clear and winds will continue to weaken overnight.

The big question will be if there will be short time near
sunrise Monday where some haze and fog will build up near the
ground, given really strong radiation cooling. Sites across
the east such as IPT, MDT, and LNS may keep just enough wind
to prevent any formation. I added in UNV, and AOO to have some
fog late. The higher chance to see fog and hz build up will
be at BFD and JST, where the temperature can drop below the
fcst dewpoint. Observed soundings the last 2 days had the
coldest air in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere being
right on the ground.

After the sun comes up, would expect conditions to improve
with just some mid and high clouds, given warm advection.

Outlook...

Tue...No sig wx.

Wed-Thu...Small chance for some very light mixed precipitation,
mainly across the north. Trace amts.

Fri...Small chance for some very light snow across the south.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST
Monday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-
042-045-046-049>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin/Tyburski

Forecaster's
Discussion: