Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

326
FXUS61 KCTP 110757
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
257 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Forecast remains highly consistent

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Patches of ice may glaze over the Laurel Highlands this
morning, and result in locally hazardous travel conditions

2) Winter weather threat for Sun-Mon timeframe continues to
trend very slightly lower.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patches of ice may glaze over the Laurel Highlands
this morning, and result in locally hazardous travel conditions

Temps are dropping in the wake of a cold front, both at the sfc
and in the low clouds over the W. Model soundings portray a
thermal profile in the shallow clouds which would be mainly/all
supercooled water this morning. With sfc temps now dipping near
32F, we could see some patches of -ZL/ZR as the orographic lift
helps wring out some of that moisture as the air ascends the
Laurels and the tops of the highest spots on the Allegheny
Plateau this AM. Will hold onto the Winter Weather Advisory for
the Laurels, and continue to only mention patches elsewhere in
the wrn mtns. A kicker/help for any precip this AM/early aftn is
a secondary front poised to cross the mtns from N-S from just
before sunrise in the N to mid-morning S. Then, the thermal
profile will get cold enough for SHSN instead. Cross-lake flow
will make a deposit of 1-2" over the highest terrain of the
Laurels and and inch or so in the far NW. Otherwise the wind
gets stronger after the second FROPA - likely generating some
gusts up near 40KT on the highest ridges (mainly the Allegheny
Front/Babcock Mtn. We`ll hold off on a wind advy at this point,
but are mentioning the gusty winds in the WSW for the Laurels
where the wind will be strongest/gustiest.
---------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Winter weather threat for Sun-Mon timeframe
continues to trend very slightly lower.

A wave of low pressure is set to develop/deepen over the desert
SW and TX on Fri-night. The upper feature which is expected to
drive this development is still off the CA coast. Thus, upper
air sampling/initialization is not infused with any actual
sounding data. Old forecaster once told me to not trust anything
still over the Pacific at model runtime. Advances in model init
with sat data and better first-guesses have improved our long-
range forecasting since then (along with the extinction of the
dinosaurs). Yet, I can`t shake the large amount of doubt that
this upper low/trough brings to a forecast for >3000SM away and
~5 days in the future.

While many deterministic model solutions now take all of the
precip associated with the low to the south of PA, all of the
ensemble systems continue to keep a relatively high (50-60pct)
chc of measurable precip falling over PA sometime Sun into Mon.

Thus, the main message here is that a winter storm - or at
least a meager amount of light precip - remains possible.
Progged temps on Sat night and Sun morning look sub-freezing
over all of the forecast area as a high pressure/cold dome
moving down from the N/NE could make a wedge of CAD. However,
Sunday may hold a warming up to 35F N and 42F S. So, arrival
time of (any) precip would be key to (any) precip type. With so
much uncertainty, we`ve only shown a slight nudge downward in
PoPs Sun-Mon by about 10-15pct from the previous model cycle,
leaning toward the drier forecast that the deterministic model
solutions continue to trend toward.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mixed bag of VFR-to-MVFR conditions will continue across
western Pennsylvania through 11/12Z with restrictions mainly in
the form of low ceilings. At this point, continues to look like
MDT/LNS are least likely to experience MVFR conditions, but any
restrictions would likely occur between 11/09Z and 11/12Z Wed.
A period of IFR ceilings is possible at KBFD and KJST over a
similar timeframe with a slight increase in low-level moisture.
Lake effect/upslope snow showers will develop Wednesday
afternoon and could bring IFR/LIFR visibility if they move over
any airfields. KBFD and KJST are the most likely locations to
experience restrictions.

LLWS will also continue as a moderately strong southwesterly
LLJ passes overhead. Once the front passes through, winds will
shift to the northwest and become gusty. Gusty WNW winds in
excess of 30 kts will be likely mainly after 10-12Z Wednesday
with some periods of light snow/snow showers - focused across
the Western Mtns of PA. Wind gusts elsewhere will at least be in
the mid to upper 20KT range.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Sub-VFR most likely at KBFD and KJST with periods of
snow showers.

Fri-Sat...Improving conditions late week into the weekend

Sun...Monitoring potential for winter weather on Sunday. Most
likely restrictions are in southern PA at this time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: