Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

557
FXUS61 KCTP 151950
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
350 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Wind Advisory extended through 11 AM Monday across the
northern tier along with Elk & Cameron Counties.
* Slight uptick in snow totals across far NW PA including
potential lake effect snow showers into the middle of the
week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds continue through Monday morning ahead of a cold
frontal passage.

2) A strong cold front will bring an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, with damaging winds
and a few tornadoes as the primary threats.

3) Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply colder
temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some snow
possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty winds continue through Monday morning
ahead of a cold frontal passage.

Current observations across portions of central Pennsylvania
outline highest wind gusts reaching between 30-40 mph range with
the bulk of model guidance indicating wind gusts to increase
this evening and into Monday morning with an ever tightening
pressure gradient across Pennsylvania overnight. Have continued
to increase wind gusts in the near-term as NBM wind gusts appear
too low given current observational trend, pushing much of
northern/western Pennsylvania above Wind Advisory criteria. The
main changes to headlines this cycle was to tack on a couple of
hours onto the Wind Advisory across the northern tier, where
HREF model guidance continues to outline a favorable environment
for continued wind gusts Monday morning with probabilities in
exceeding Wind Advisory criteria over 50-60% in this timeframe.
Some gusty winds will remain possible on Monday; however,
looking at some potential for severe thunderstorms for areas
south/east of the current advisory, thus have continued to keep
wind headlines out of these areas given this severe threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front will bring an Enhanced Risk
of severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon and evening, with
damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats.

Monday continues to be a period of high focus, as model
consensus zeroes in on the potential for significant convective
development. At this early juncture, confidence is quite high on
the synoptic-scale evolution (the approach of a negatively
tilted upper-trough, an associated sharp cold front, and
impressively strong wind fields at all levels). More uncertainty
still has to be dealt with, though, in terms of smaller-scale
factors, such as: exact timing of the cold frontal passage,
potential for a pre-frontal trough, whether any breaks develop
in the overcast conditions that should prevail to start the day
(which would enhance instability)?, and convective mode (will
any discrete cells form ahead of a probable intense squall
line?). Bottom line, though, ultimately we have increasing
levels of confidence in high wind producing thunderstorms Monday
afternoon, with the best potential for damaging gusts and
tornadoes near and south of I-80, as well as east of I-99.

The Storm Prediction Center has continued with their Enhanced
Risk (Level 3 out of 5) for Monday during the afternoon update,
with very little changes across central Pennsylvania. The
primary threat for Pennsylvania appears to be a line of storms
along a cold front, progged to cross the region between 2PM and
8PM on Monday. Within the line, embedded supercells could
support concentrated tornadic winds in the midst of a
potentially expansive area of damaging wind gusts. A slight
notable model difference that has been observed with more
recent guidance is (potentially) a slightly less progressive
pattern which could unlock more time for the forecast area to be
unlocked in the warm sector. This could allow for slightly more
convection ahead of the cold frontal passage; however, there
still remains some uncertainty with regards to this solution so
urging to continue to monitor trends for severe weather across
much of the forecast area on Monday.

QPF will be 1 to 1.5" for locations east of the I-99/US-15
corridor, and isolated 2" amounts are possible at higher
elevations in Schuylkill and Sullivan County. Antecedent dry
conditions should preclude any major flooding concerns, but
ponding on roadways is a real possibility. If you have outdoor
plans on Monday afternoon and evening, be sure to monitor the
weather and consider changing your plans.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Following Monday storminess, a period of sharply
colder temperatures is expected through mid-week, with some
snow possible Monday night, as the cold air first builds in.

On Monday evening, once the surface cold front pushes through,
colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier
precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable
upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around
moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the
potential for a quick 1-3" of snow in some areas Monday night,
particularly over the higher terrain and northern sections of
the state. Again, this will come down to smaller details, so it
is advised that you stay tuned for later forecast updates.

Tuesday looks windy and much colder, with temperatures a good
25-35 degrees lower than what will be experienced on Monday
(highs no better than the upper 20s-mid 30s in many locales).
Scattered snow showers/squalls with moisture sourcing from the
Great Lakes will traverse the region and could lead to brief
reductions in visibility and a quick accumulation of snowfall on
untreated surfaces.

Temperatures will trend back to near average by Friday with
occasional chances for rain or snow, but no significant
accumulation is expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Currently VFR across all of central Pennsylvania, with high
(~80-90%) confidence in these conditions continuing through 00Z
Monday as a shield of low-level clouds across southeastern
Pennsylvania is expected to stay ~4000-5000ft AGL. Recent HREF
model guidance has started to indicate some presence of low-
level moisture increasing after 00Z Monday across southern
Pennsylvania, with -RA possible. Highest chances appear to be
over E PA (MDT/LNS, lower probabilities at IPT/AOO/JST). This
TAF cycle has introduced higher confidence in shower potential
across E PA based primarily on HREF model guidance which is
tracking fairly well with GLAMP model guidance. This cycle also
introduced PROB30 grounds for convection ahead of the cold
front at MDT/LNS along with along the front at JST; however,
more mentions will potentially be needed in future TAF cycles.

LLWS is almost certain (~90-100%) in the near-term and
throughout much of the TAF package based on most recent NBM
model guidance with the presence of a LLJ across the region.
Chances for LLWS begin to decrease later in the 18Z TAF package;
however, have kept mentions in towards the end due to lower
confidence at this time.

Outlook...

Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN northwest. IFR possible at BFD/JST.

Wed...Warm fropa. -SN or -RA possible northwest.

Thu...Sct showers over northern PA with restrictions possible.

Fri...PM Showers move in from W PA, restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT Monday for PAZ004>006-010-011-
037.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for PAZ012-041-042.
Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for PAZ017-018-024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Beaty
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Beaty
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Beaty
AVIATION...Beaty

Forecaster's
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