Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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248 FXUS61 KCTP 251924 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 224 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No major changes to the forecast. Low potential (~20%) for a gusty snow shower for northern Central PA later this afternoon into evening timeframe. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) System to pass just to the south of the area; may bring rain/snow mix to southern Central PA 2) End-of-February warm-up before a system brings next chance for widespread light accumulating snowfall for the area && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: System to pass just to the south of the area; may bring rain/snow mix to southern Central PA Though still doesn`t look like much, a weak system is expected to pass just to the south of the area along a flat trough. Overall looks pretty benign, with a chance for rain/snow mix for southern Central PA through the day on Thursday. Chances for freezing rain are very low, since temperature profiles in modeled soundings don`t have an indication of a warm nose within a cold profile. Another consideration would be if precipitation even pushes that far north at all. Multiple newer CAM runs indicate precipitation staying south of the PA-MD line. For now, general low chances were kept for any rain/snow mix potential. KEY MESSAGE 2: End-of-February warm-up before a system brings next chance for widespread light accumulating snowfall for the area Surface high pressure and warm air advection bring an end-of- February warm-up to the area, thanks to a developing low pressure system far north in Canada, which will not have impact to this area. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the high-40s/low-50s Friday and the low- to mid-50s Saturday. Although a change of pace from winter as a whole, whether welcomed or otherwise, one thing to be mindful of would be the thermal implications to river ice, which will continue to be monitored. Otherwise, precipitation- free until Saturday evening/Sunday. The warm-up will be short-lived as a Canadian surface high pressure and associated mid-upper level trough move towards the area late weekend. We start to see bigger differences in guidance going out this far, where differences in timing and overall placement of some shortwaves off of this trough will move into the area. The most consistent items to note with global guidance are the few shortwaves propagating off of this trough, one on Sunday and another on Monday, which could bring widespread lighter snowfall across the area. We return to a more zonal/slight trough pattern heading into early next week, with a couple of weak shortwaves moving through, likely towing along lighter intensity precipitation. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... MVFR/Fuel-alt ceilings are expected to continue over the next few hours, before clouds scatter out and conditions improve to VFR levels this afternoon. However, a shortwave moving across the Great Lakes later this afternoon/evening might refuel snow showers over KBFD bringing the return of at least MVFR restrictions for a time. Confidence is lower in spotty snow showers and restrictions around KIPT, KJST and KUNV, but can`t be ruled out. Winds will be becoming westerly this afternoon and west to northwesterly later in the TAF period. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected through the afternoon before starting to ease later this evening. Outlook... Thu...Low potential (~20-30%) for snow showers across southern Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable. Fri-Sat...Dry conditions with VFR probable. Sun...Low potential (~30%) for snow showers across NW PA. Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable. Monday...Low potential (~20-30%) for snow showers across the area, may cause restrictions. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...NWS Binghamton KEY MESSAGES...NWS Binghamton DISCUSSION...NWS Binghamton AVIATION...NWS Binghamton |
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