Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

894
FXUS61 KCTP 010957
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
557 AM EDT Fri May 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Frost Advisory expanded and Freeze Warning issued for the
western Alleghenies and northern mountains late tonight into
early Friday morning. Another 2 rounds of Frost/Freezing
conditions will occur late tonight/early Sat and late Sat
night and early Sunday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cool and unsettled pattern to end April and start May with
shower chances and a frost/freeze risk each night through the
weekend, mainly across Central and Northern PA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cool and unsettled pattern to end April and
start May with shower chances and frost/freeze risk each night
through the weekend, mainly across Central and Northern PA.

Several disturbances rotating around a broad, persistent upper
level closed low centered over Ontario and Quebec will help to
reinforce broadly deep troughing across the eastern U.S. through
much of next week. This pattern will keep conditions cool and
unsettled at times as multiple frontal systems move through. In
addition to shower chances, the fronts will bring reinforcing
surges of cool air, keeping temperatures near to below seasonal
averages.

The first of these disturbances aloft and weak low pressure at
the surface will drift east across the Commonwealth today. This
weather feature will bring periods of light rain late this
morning through early this evening.

Temperatures will be cold enough just 1 to 2 thousand feet above
ground to allow wet snowflakes to mix in at times at elevations
above 2000 feet MSL.

Rainfall amounts will be between one-tenth and one-quarter of an
inch with the highest amounts occurring across the Northern
Mountains of PA.

Another cold night is on tap with partial clearing, a relatively
light northwest wind and areas of frost and freezing temperatures
over the Northern Mountains. The lowest temperatures of this
current cool spell will be Saturday night and early Sunday with
frost or freeze conditions across all of the CWA except for
perhaps the Lower Susquehanna Valley and adjacent South-Central
Counties of PA where low temps will be in the mid-upper 30s.

There is still some uncertainty regarding the southeastward
extent of frost as there will be a rather tight pressure
gradient across the region due to a developing area of low
pressure off of the coast.

Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week, but
all guidance indicates that unsettled weather will continue with
multiple chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low-to-mid level clouds continue streaming into western
Pennsylvania this morning and will continue to filter into the
region this morning. For the 12Z TAF package, recent model
guidance continues to point towards gradual deterioration across
much of central Pennsylvnaia`s airspace after 15Z Friday as a
quick-moving system brings rainfall and lower ceilings to the
region throughout much of the day. Initial restrictions likely
remain MVFR based on the bulk of model guidance at all
airfields; however, southeastern airfields (MDT/LNS) likely
experience very short durations (if any) of MVFR restrictions
due to low-level dry air in place. Given that recent HREF
probabilities and GLAMP model guidance aren`t the most keen on
MVFR mentions at MDT/LNS, have continued to leave these out for
the 12Z TAF package with moderate (~50-60%) confidence.

Northwesterly flow with ample low-level moisture as rainfall
tapers off this evening will bring in the potential for IFR-to-
LIFR conditions at BFD/JST after 00Z Saturday based on most
recent RAP model soundings, thus have continued to be slightly
more aggressive with lower ceilings in the 12Z TAF package with
moderate confidence on restriction timing. Further east, chances
for IFR conditions remain too low for mentions in the TAFs;
however, will need to continue to monitor UNV/IPT closest for
precipitation chances, as if rainfall does track over these
areas (especially later in the afternoon and/or evening),
chances for low ceiling development will increase considerably,
especially between 00Z-12Z Saturday. Model guidance does
indicate some clearing towards the end of the 12Z TAF package at
all airfields; however, have kept main improvements at all
airfields outside of BFD/JST where model guidance tends to clear
out low-level clouds too quickly in this environmental set-up.

Outlook...

Sat...Mainly VFR, restrictions possible in SCT PM -SHRA.

Sun...SHRA moves in late; otherwise, VFR expected.

Mon...SHRA potential increases during PM hours, some TSRA
possible across N/W PA. Restrictions possible.

Tue...SHRA becomes more widespread, TSRA chances expand across
much of central PA. Restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-011-012-
017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
Freeze Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ005-006-010.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert
AVIATION...Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: