A very active spring pattern with tropical concerns across the Pacific. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Hawaii this weekend. Meanwhile we continue to monitor a developing typhoon that may affect Guam into early next week. For the Lower 48, heavy snow for mountains of California this weekend, increase threat for severe thunderstorms next week for the Plains and record warmth spreads east. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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893 FXUS61 KCTP 120532 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 132 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Threat for elevated risk of wildfire spread has diminished since afternoon. * Nudged temperatures down tonight with high pressure overhead, calm winds, and dry air in place; widespread frost likely in northern/eastern PA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Diminishing winds & cloud-free skies overnight, with frost north & east. 2) Warm up begins on Sunday and continues through the week; near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. 3) Unsettled weather expected next week, with several waves of showers and thunderstorms especially in the north and west. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Diminishing winds & cloud-free skies overnight, with frost north & east. Overnight, high pressure moves across New York ushering in clear skies, calm winds, and efficient radiational cooling. Have issued a Frost Advisory for temperatures falling below 36F in portions of the Mid and Lower Susquehanna Valley where the growing season is active and confidence is highest in frost formation. Locations along and north of I-80 should be prepared for frost/freeze conditions tonight as well, despite the growing season not officially being active yet (and thus no Frost/Freeze products will be issued yet). ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins on Sunday and continues through the upcoming week. Near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. High pressure moves east and a warm/moist southwest flow will develop Sunday afternoon. That influx of warm/moist air will usher in a prolonged period of warmer-than-average temperatures through the upcoming week. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement that a mean upper-level trough will set up shop across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will likely set the stage for a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs this time of year. Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather expected next week, with several waves of showers and thunderstorms especially in the north and west. The storm track for next week will be centered across the Great Lakes, with multiple waves of low pressure drifting into Ontario. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across northwest PA in particular. A few shortwaves along the prevailing trough could locally enhance the chance for severe weather, which is well supported by some of the NCAR Ensemble guidance that highlights an elevated severe threat Tuesday (NW), Wednesday (all of PA) and Thursday (southeast PA). Shower and storm chances will be highest in northwest PA. Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more rain, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast will see less rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are expected for all Central PA airfields through the 06Z TAF period. Mid and high clouds will increase through the morning and a few showers may develop over northern Pennsylvania ahead of a warm front during the afternoon. The site with the best chance of seeing any rain will be BFD, though the dry air mass in place along with the fact that the best forcing will remain to our north will keep the probability of rain below 30 percent. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots possible. A 40 to 50 knot low-level jet will move in from the west after 00Z Monday, bringing a period of LLWS to all TAF sites. This will also usher in better low-level moisture, allowing ceilings to gradually lower through the night. MVFR ceilings will be possible at BFD by 12Z Monday. Outlook... Mon...Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially northern and western TAF sites. Tue-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the north and west. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for PAZ027-028- 049>052-056-057-059-066. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Martin KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff/Martin DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff/Martin AVIATION...Bauco |
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