Fire Weather Concerns in the Intermountain West into the Plains

Anomalously warm, dry and breezy conditions will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Intermountain West into the Plains though early this week. Another elevated risk is possible across the central Appalachians. A rapid warm-up is in the forecast beginning Monday across the central and eastern U.S.. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

910
FXUS61 KCTP 291851
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
251 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*No significant changes to the previous forecast

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Mild week ahead as the calender flips to April with passing
showers and periods of rain leading up to Easter Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild week ahead as the calender flips to April
with passing showers and periods of rain leading up to Easter
Sunday

Max temps this afternoon recovering +10-20 degrees into the
50-60F range from yesterday`s chilly daytime highs (coldest
until Fall?) Enjoy a partly sunny and fairly pleasant to
moderately breezy rest of the day with low humidity.

Evolving WAA pattern favors a gradual uptick in the chance of
rain early this week. HREF mean suggests some passing light rain
showers could arrive as early as Monday morning in the western
mtns, with a better rain/QPF signal emerging over the northern
tier on Tuesday. Forcing appears rather nebulous for tomorrow
aside from a couple of weak disturbances aloft. Cold front
trailing quick moving sfc low tracking from WI to ME on Tuesday
supports best odds for rain late Tuesday/Tuesday night over
northern PA which is located on the southern edge of SPC D3
MRGL risk.

The aforementioned cold front becomes quasi-stationary and
pivots over CPA on Wed as the pattern amplifies upstream across
the western and central U.S. later this week. This sets up CAD
signature for Thursday with sfc low tracking through the Lower
Great Lakes. Trailing front tied to this low also wavers over
PA late in the week and links up with a 3rd Upper Midwest sfc
low to keep rain chances in the forecast for Easter weekend.
Overall, the pattern to close out March and begin April 2026
looks be on the mild side of climo with periods of rain. Max
rainfall/QPF footprint extends from the mid MS Valley through
the eastern Great Lakes with northwest PA most likely to pick up
>1" over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mid clouds are breaking a bit, but more high clouds are on their
way. Still, VFR conditions prevail until early Monday. Sfc
winds will gust to 15-20KT, highest in the SE. Then, a swrly
lljet of 35-45KT builds. Not only will it create LLWS on Mon
(mainly W), but it will bring in moisture for the lowest 6kft of
the atmos. The moisture will pile up against the Laurels and
Alleghenies (JST/BFD). IFR cigs are poss (40%) at BFD during the
day on Monday, but it will take a while to dip that low, if
they do. Other locations should (90%) stay well above IFR cigs.
An isold patch or two of --RA is possible W out of the thicker
clouds in the W and perhaps at MDT/LNS, too, in the morning as a
upper wave passes overhead.

Outlook...

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc (20%) -TSRA, mainly west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss (40%). CFROPA late day or early
night.

Thu-Fri...Sct to numerous SHRA. MVFR likely (70%).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Dangelo

Forecaster's
Discussion: