Showers and Thunderstorms for the Eastern Third of the Country; Fire Weather Concerns; Flooding Issues for the Great Lakes Region

Showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of a cold front for the eastern third of the country. The rainfall for the Great Lakes region could prolong the ongoing flooding. Much cooler weather will filter in behind this cold front along and east of the Rockies. Where the rain is needed, the Southern High Plains, critical fire weather concerns through this weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

714
FXUS61 KCTP 181928
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
328 PM EDT Sat Apr 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Issued Freeze Watches for Mon and Tue mornings

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to central
Pennsylvania into early Sunday morning. Some storms could be
severe across western Pennsylvania through the evening. Flash
flooding possible across northern Pennsylvania.

2) Frost/freeze potential across northern/western Pennsylvania
Sunday night into Monday morning. Widespread damaging
frost/freeze threat extends across all of central Pennsylvania
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

3) Marginal fire weather concerns this afternoon ahead of the
cold front. Drier conditions early this week into the middle of
the week will fuel multiple days of marginal fire weather risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms to
central Pennsylvania into early Sunday morning. Some storms
could be severe across western Pennsylvania through the evening.
Flash flooding possible across northern Pennsylvania.

Radar is back to normal.

No significant changes from the previous thinking on both severe
and flash flooding. Threat is mainly wind, but early cells in
advance of a main line of showers/storms are spinning. Some
pre-storm gusts in NW PA were into the 30s and 40s. Meadville
G49KT.

Prime time for severe weather will be between 4 pm and 9 pm.
After sunset, the system slows down and training of cells may
occur, but mainly behind the (ana)front. They will be grabbing
moisture from 1.2" PWATs, though.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frost/freeze potential across northern/western
Pennsylvania Sunday night into Monday morning. Widespread
damaging frost/freeze threat extends across all of central
Pennsylvania Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Confidence is /very/ high in a widespread freeze Monday
night/Tues morning. High pressure, light wind and 8H temps in
the -5 to -10C range overhead.

Not quite so high confidence for the night before. Also, the
freeze Sun night- Mon morning would mainly be from AOO-UNV-IPT
north. Frost worries are low for the other half of the CWA,
mainly because of the wind, but also some cloud cover.

The growing season has been activated for all but four zones
(Tioga/Sullivan/Potter Counties and Northern Lycoming County)
across central Pennsylvania as of 04/18/2026, see the latest
Public Info Statement for those details.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Marginal fire weather concerns this afternoon
ahead of the cold front. Drier conditions early this week into
the middle of the week will fuel multiple days of marginal fire
weather risk.

Sneaky fire weather day across the southwestern zones of
central Pennsylvania (Somerset, Bedford, Fulton) with marginal
minimum relative humidities and gusty winds ahead of a cold
frontal passage. The rain moving in should allow a rise in
dewpoints and RH.

Looking into the beginning of next week, relative humidities
dip down closer to the ~30% critical threshold with Monday
outlining the best potential for some post-frontal gusty winds.
We`ll likely need to see where wetting rain falls over the next
24 hours and reassess fuel moistures into the beginning of next
week; however, Monday will be a day to watch going forward due
to gusty winds and marginal RHs. Tuesday will also be a notable
day to watch in the fire weather realm with current forecast
outlining RHs dipping below 30% in spots; however, less wind to
contend with so that`s where further evaluation of fuels will
become increasingly important after rainfall exits the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A strong cold front will move across the region overnight with
some showers and storms. Most of the storms will be across the
west through early evening, as dewpoints not real high with
the airmass to the east, thus thunder left out of the east.

Conditions will lower overnight, as winds shift to the northwest
and colder air works into the area. Much of the shower activity
will be just behind the cold front.

Showers will taper off and CIGS will come up Sunday morning.
The main issue on Sunday will be gusty winds, which will persist
into Monday.

Outlook...

Mon...Lingering -SHSN possible early N/W; otherwise, dry
conditions with VFR prevailing.

Tue...Dry with VFR conditions prevailing early, rain showers
possible during the afternoon and evening hours.

Wed...NW flow with potential restrictions and a chc of -SHRA
N/W.

Thu...Clearing.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for
PAZ004-005-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-045-046.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for PAZ004-005-010>012-017-018.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Beaty
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Beaty
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Beaty
AVIATION...Martin

Forecaster's
Discussion: