Critical Fire Weather Conditions in the Southern Plains; Showers and Thunderstorms Linger Over Florida

A cold front will linger over Florida through Tuesday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms, and potential flash flooding concerns. Showers and thunderstorms will be most widespread across eastern and central Florida. Gusty winds and dry conditions will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions across the southern Plains and southern Rockies through Monday. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

382
FXUS61 KCTP 060814
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
414 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints on Tues and Wed
* Increased wind gusts on Tues

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow likely across the northern tier Monday/Monday
night.

2) Much colder first half of the week but warming up again at
week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow likely across the northern tier
Monday/Monday night.

Cloud cover across the CWA will continue to thin and clear out
this morning, but clouds upstream will be arriving and spreading
across the area from W to E through the rest of the day.

The moisture-poor system moving in across the Great Lakes will
generate numerous SHSN over the northern half of the state and
in the Laurel Highlands. Dry air in the llvls will limit the
QPF, too. Sfc temps are expected to get into the 40-45F range
in the nrn tier in the aftn, so the p-type may be a mix, and
melt any snow that initially lays down. Meager CAPE over the NW
could generate a briefly heavier spot of precip/snow here and
there. HREF members, GFS, and NAM all generate a heavier shower
or two in the Laurels and perhaps into the central mountains.
Temps should be a little milder than in the northern tier, but
the very highest hill tops may get a thin coating tonight/Tues
AM. Overall, the accums could be an inch or so in the nrn tier
and perhaps a dusting in the Laurels and Alleghenies.

---------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Much colder the first half of the week but
warming up again at week`s end.

Tuesday morning mins will be cold enough for frost over all of
the area, but wind of 10-15 G 20-25KT should keep that from
happening. Still, a great portion of the CWA will be <=32F Tues
AM. Tues will be the coldest day as the cold front associated
with the system passes before or around sunrise and a secondary
front should move across during the daytime. Wind will also pick
up as the dry, heavy air moves in. Model profiles show that we
may be able to mix down gusts into the 30s on the ridge tops
and in the downslope of the Lower Susq, and 20s elsewhere. RH
will dip to 30-40pct.

Wednesday morning will be the coldest this week due to the
center of the sfc high being right overhead. Morning mins will
be well below freezing everywhere. Even the Lower Susq will get
into the L-M20s. The start of the growing season (date of the
normal last spring freeze) is not until the 11th there. So, we
probably won`t be issuing frost/freeze products for that
morning. But, collaboration with our neighboring WFOs will weigh
heavily on that decision.

It then warms up to about 5F below normal maxes on Wed as the
sfc high slides to our E and S and the wind turns to come out of
the S and we should be sunny. Dry air will still be in place,
and the RH will certainly drop into the 20s for everyone as the
temperatures warm but dewpoints don`t keep up. Thursday looks
much warmer, jumping 8-15F over Wed`s numbers (greatest gains
will be over the NW). PoPs stay pretty low as the sfc high
noses back into the Deep South. That will help to keep moisture
from the Gulf from getting to us. Temps rise another 10F on
Friday. Moisture makes it all the way around the periphery of
the high on Fri, and a front dropping in from Canada could make
a couple of SHRA in the NW. But, these may dry up before
reaching S of the Turnpike and I-81.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Early March-like weather pattern expected over the next 36-48
hours with reinforcing surges of unseasonably cold air. This
will promote an uptick in rain and snow shower activity through
Tuesday before high pressure arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The result will be intermittent rounds of rain and
snow showers with occasional drops in visibility to MVFR/IFR.
BKN-OVC ceilings will be fairly stable in the low VFR to solid
MVFR range. Timing of visibility drops are difficult at this
point so opted to use prevailing VFR to MVFR -shra/-shsn for
now across the western and central terminals (outside of
KMDT/KLNS) with highest odds for more frequent IFR visibility
restrictions in shsn at KBFD. Wind is also a little tricky to
time with 20-30kt gusts from 290-320 likely fading some today
and shifting more to a 270 degree component before increasing
later tonight into Tuesday.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR.

Fri...Chance of rain showers especially in the western
airspace.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: