Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
429 FXUS61 KCTP 060001 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 801 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... * Warming trend into the first weekend of July with hot/humid conditions expected to peak Sunday and Monday * Isolated t-storms possible over the Allegheny/Laurel ridgetops and near the Erie lake breeze Saturday afternoon and evening; daily chances for showers and t-storms next week && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/... By and large, another pleasant summer day is in store for today. Temps will be a bit warmer than yesterday, with highs ranging from the low 80s in the northern mountains to near 90 in the south central valleys. PoPs are between 10 and 20 pct this afternoon across the Allegheny/Laurel ridgetops and in the vicinity of the Erie lake breeze boundary. Dewpoints will be getting well into the 60s over far NW PA. Just a little kick needed at the sfc (usually the lake breeze and/or terrain can do that) and CAPE in the 500-1000 range should be enough for isolated, slow moving showers and storms. A cap/warm layer around 12kft should prevent any convection from becoming severe, and even keep lightning flash rates on the low side. && .SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... With more moisture in places tonight, expect overnight lows to be warmer than the past few nights, with temps expected to be in the 60s early Sunday morning. The afternoon will be just a few degrees warmer compared to Saturday, and still looks rain free for now as CPA will be in the squeeze play subsidence zone between approaching cold front to the west and TC Chantal near the Carolina coast. Beneath the axis of the Upper Level Ridge shifting east across the Commonwealth Sunday, mid level temps will warm to around +10C, likely preventing any convection, except for perhaps one or 2 isolated cells over the ridgetops. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PoPs increase into Monday and Tuesday as a relatively weak northern stream upper level trough arrives and taps into some tropical moisture off the East Coast. With more moisture in place, heat index values Monday afternoon will climb into the 90s for most valley locations south of the northern tier. It will also be quite muggy overnight with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s (NW to SE) Monday night. Temps will fall a few degrees into Tue as showers and storms stick around. A cold front will likely push through the area during the day Tuesday. PoPs drop into the 20-40 pct range on Wed as heights briefly rise over the area, but most model guidance still shows enough instability for at least a few isolated showers and storms. PoPs rise again Thursday with the approach of another shortwave trough. The forecast for Friday and the weekend is more uncertain, with some guidance suggesting a break in the unsettled pattern, and others suggesting active weather continues. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Still some high level clouds and a few Cu early this evening. With fading heating, expect any lower clouds to crumble with dry and VFR conds overnight. Highest chc of a shower or storm remains vicinity of BFD for another hour or two, but no higher than a 20 percent chance. The airmass still rather dry for early July, so not much chc of fog tonight. Sunday a bit more in the higher dewpoints, but the chc of a shower or storm look to still be very low. Main chc for any showers and storms will be from late Monday into Thursday as dewpoints increase and weak systems act on the moisture. Outlook... Sun...VFR. Mon-Thu...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly aftn/eve. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Colbert NEAR TERM...Colbert/RXR SHORT TERM...Colbert/RXR LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert AVIATION...Martin/Gartner |
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