
A strengthening storm system will bring impactful weather to the much of Central U.S. over the next couple of days, including heavy snow in the northern Rockies, Critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Plains, and increasing severe weather chances from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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663 FXUS61 KCTP 221906 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 306 PM EDT Wed Apr 22 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Lowered today`s dewpoints by up to several degrees F. * Potential for faster timing with the exit of the main batch of showers Saturday morning/midday based on 12Z Model Consensus, though would like to see 2 cycles in a row better supporting this trend. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Much warmer than recent days this afternoon and even warmer Thursday and Friday. Numerous light showers this morning, many more on Friday. 2) Wet start to the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Much warmer than recent days this afternoon and even warmer Thursday and Friday. Showers Friday into Sat morning. A weak north/south sfc trough was pushing across Central PA this mid afternoon. Very limited within the low-mid level thermal trough could touch off a few isolated/very brief rain showers from KUNV to KELM and points east through 23Z. The wind becomes light northerly this evening after the passage of the trough. For tonight clear to partly cloudy with patchy fog late, mainly across the NW Mtns and portions of the mid and lower Susq Valley. Thursday looks dry and much warmer, jumping about 10F over today. Everyone but the far NErn mtns will be in the 70s. An 80F is not out of the question close to the MD border. This warmth and associated deep mixing should help dewpoints/RHs get a little lower than NBM guidance. Min RH should be close to 30 pct if not lower Thurs. NAM is an outlier with much higher dewpoints and cloud cover and slightly cooler temps in the west. Have discounted for now. The front that passes through late today/early tonight will return northward over western PA on Friday. ------------------------------------ KEY MESSAGE 2: Wet start to the weekend. The lift over the front and daytime instability will generate sct SHRA/TSRA in the western half of the CWA on Friday. The cold air tries to hang on over the east and may even back in a bit as the upper low over New England presses southward along the coast. This will keep the warm front in place or nudge it to the west as a backdoor cold front. The energy diving down from the N/NW and perhaps an enhanced LLJet will bring in more moisture, and generate more SHRA/TSRA Fri night. Sat looks pretty wet for everyone with numerous SHRA/TSRA. QPF in the 0.5-1.00" range is a solid forecast for many Fri night and Sat. The bulk of the 12Z guidance has trended about 6 hours faster and a bit drier for the precip Sat morning, but will wait to see another model run before making significant changes to the current running forecast for that 12 hour period (12Z Sat - 00Z Sun). Some model divergence is seen for Sunday, though. Confidence is low in how fast the precip moves through. So, Sunday may hold sct SHRA, and PoPs in the 20-35% range are being kept for the time being. Next storm system approaches for Tues, resulting in a medium confidence and medium to high PoPs. Will leave those high PoPs in for now, but model/EPS difference exists on evolution of the storm/mass fields. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Widespread VFR is for the about the first half of the 18Z TAF cycle as W/NW winds at the SFC and aloft advect drier air over the region. With that said, a few brief showers may develop near a weak north/south trough as it pushes east across Central and Eastern PA late this afternoon. Prob 30 for -SHRA included at KIPT between 19Z-23Z based current Sat/Radar trends and some high res model guidance. Overnight (after 06Z), fog development becomes a concern due to largely cloud-free skies and light winds, particularly across the southeastern airfields (KMDT/KLNS) and near KBFD. For KMDT/KLNS, light easterly flow on the backside of the low pressure that brought us rain showers earlier today will keep low-level moisture in place, increasing the chances for visibility restrictions due to mist/fog. Confidence for fog (around 30%) is higher at KLNS given their proximity to the coast, with less confidence at KMDT. Moreover, upslope winds at KJST may contribute to low clouds developing after 06Z, with restrictions to IFR possible (40% chance) at the site. Outlook... Thu...VFR. Partly cloudy and rainfree. Fri...Light rain possible. VFR to MVFR. Sat-Sun..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions. && .CLIMATE... A handful of record lows were set/tied on Tues morning (April 21st): Harrisburg`s 29 broke the previous record of 30 degrees set back in 1956. Altoona`s 24 broke the previous record of 26 degrees also set back in 1956. Williamsport tied it`s record of 25 degrees set back in 1925. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo AVIATION...Lambert/Teare CLIMATE...Dangelo/Beaty |
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