Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns in Hawaii; Severe Weather this Weekend in the Plains; Pacific Storm in the West

A storm system near the Hawaiian Islands is expected to bring periods of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and isolated strong to severe thunderstorms through Friday. Several rounds of severe thunderstorms are forecast to impact parts of the Great Plains into the Midwest this weekend into next week. Moderate to heavy rainfall and high elevation snow is expected this weekend over California and Oregon. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

696
FXUS61 KCTP 100824
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
424 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Minor adjustments to the forecast to account for patchy fog
and low clouds over the Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Patchy fog and low clouds this morning for the southeast; a
cold front brings light rain to the region this afternoon and
evening.

2) Fire weather concerns continue through Saturday with low
relative humidities and gusty winds. Little precipitation will
exacerbate drought across southern Pennsylvania.

3) Mainly dry weather expected this weekend; significant
warming trend into next week, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Patchy fog and low clouds this morning for the
southeast; a cold front brings light rain to the region this
afternoon and evening.

Moist southeasterly flow continues to bring patchy fog and low
clouds into southeast PA this morning. The HREF suggests that
these clouds could expand as far northwest as Williamsport by
sunrise, but they should struggle to make it any farther than
that. These clouds will stick around through mid-morning before
dissipating for the afternoon.

After a mainly dry start to the day, rain chances will increase
across northwest PA this afternoon ahead of a cold front. Weak
elevated instability may support a few lightning strikes over
Warren and McKean counties, but the rest of the region should
remain too stable for thunder. The showers will spread
southeastward through the afternoon and into the evening,
weakening the farther southeast they progress. Expected
rainfall amounts range from a quarter to a third of an inch in
the northwest, to no more than a few drops in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Fire weather concerns continue through Saturday
with lower relative humidities and breezy winds. Little
precipitation will exacerbate drought across southern
Pennsylvania.

Dry air above a weak inversion should mix down to the surface
this afternoon across much of Central PA. resulting in minimum
RHs in the 20 to 30 percent range. The driest conditions today
are expected over the southwestern portion of the area, where
the HREF suggests a reasonable minimum for RH could be as low as
15 percent. An SPS for fire weather may be needed later this
morning.

While most of the region should see at least some rain over the
next 24 hours, the Lower Susquehanna Valley looks to remain
almost completely dry. As a result, that area will be the focus
for fire weather concerns on Saturday. RH values should once
again fall to the 20 to 30 percent range, though winds will not
be as gusty as they will be today. These lower winds may help to
somewhat limit the fire weather concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mainly dry weather expected this weekend;
significant warming trend into next week, with scattered showers
and thunderstorms.

High pressure building into the region behind today`s cold front
will support mainly dry conditions with cooler temperatures
through the weekend. Patchy frost is possible Sunday morning as
temperatures fall into the low to mid 30s, though the best
radiational cooling conditions may remain across areas where the
growing season is not active yet as the center of the high sits
to our north.

A significant warming trend is expected for next week, with
temperatures climbing into the 70s and 80s for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Multiple disturbances tracking through will bring
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers (within a narrow east/west plume of slightly higher
moisture) moved out of the KBFD recently and conditions will be
VFR through the mid afternoon, prior to the approach of a cold
front.

The poorest flying conditions in the near term will be across
the the Lower Susq Valley airfields where a light SE flow in the
lowest 1.5 KFT AGL will transport a shallow layer of low end
MVFR and IFR clouds NWWD across that region and possibly as far
north as the KIPT area for a few hours during the mid morning
(10-13Z).

A return to VFR should follow late this morning (and remain for
all Central PA airfields), though some model guidance hints
that the low CIGS at KLNS may hold tough through about 16Z today
before mixing out as low level winds veer about 30 degrees to a
southerly direction.

Gusty winds will develop again this afternoon across the entire
area, perhaps gusting as high as 25 or 30 knots at KBFD, and
KJST.

By the afternoon hours today, another round of rain will
begin to encroach on northwest PA, with lowering clouds ahead of
the rain. Restrictions should arrive at KBFD between 20-22Z
with subsequent lowering to IFR ceilings. Additional
restrictions are expected at KJST, KAOO, KUNV, and KIPT along
and behind the front, but any impacts will occur after 00Z
(beyond the current TAF period).

Outlook...

Friday Night...Lingering restrictions northwest

Sat...Restrictions possible early, then trending VFR.

Sun...Mainly dry. Maybe a shower near the NY border.

Mon-Tue...Chance of showers, mainly N/W later in the day.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Bauco/Beaty
DISCUSSION...Bauco/Beaty
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff

Forecaster's
Discussion: