Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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688 FXUS61 KCTP 251150 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA Issued by National Weather Service Binghamton NY 650 AM EST Wed Feb 25 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Added Northern Centre County to Winter Weather Advisory * Extended end time of Winter Weather Advisory from 7AM to 9AM for the north central mountains && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation for later tonight into the Wednesday morning commute 2) Increased uncertainty with snow/mixed precip potential Thursday 3) Mild end to February/meteorological winter -- but does March come in like a lion with another wintry system early next week? && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation for later tonight into the Wednesday morning commute A clipper system tracking across the Upper Great Lakes will bring a quick-hitting shot of snow primarily across the western and northern Alleghenies late tonight through Wednesday morning. Warm advection ahead of the surface low will combine with left exit region jet dynamics into favorable DGZ to produce 1-3" totals over the higher terrain with C-1" southeast of I99/I80. Bulk of the accumulating snowfall will likely fall within a 4-8 hour window with light snow/flurries after 12Z Wed across the Allegheny Plateau and Laurel Highlands. The snow and slippery road conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute in some areas and may result in travel/school delays. KEY MESSAGE 2: Increased uncertainty with snow/mixed precip potential Thursday Overall, the 2/24 00Z & 12Z model trends have been bearish on the margin concerning snow/mixed precip potential for Thursday. A southeastward QPF shift in the deterministic GFS, NAM, and ECMWF is quite evident in the 12Z runs with NBM QPF matching closer with AIGFS and WPC to AIGEFS. The uncertainty is likely tied to shortwave differences in the fast quasi-zonal flow and strong temperature gradient across the northern half of the CONUS. POPs and snowfall were reduced via baseline foundational NBM which accounts for the bearish trends and implies lower forecaster confidence. It`s not out of the question the southeastward shift reverses in future cycles, but for now the signal is considerably weaker than this time yesterday. KEY MESSAGE 3: Mild end to February/meteorological winter -- but does March come in like a lion with another wintry system early next week? Regardless of the outcome on Thursday, Friday and Saturday continue to shape up quite well as we close out the month of February/meteorological winter on a nice warming trend. Saturday looks like the warmest day with max temps in the low 40s to mid 50s running +5-10 degrees above the historical average. But does March come in like a lion? Uncertainty exists regarding the potential for overrunning winter precip early next week as Pacific energy/moisture catches up to retreating arctic high pressure. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A round of snow that has been making its way across the area this morning continues to push to the east with lingering visibility restrictions primarily for KJST and KAOO over the next hour or two. MVFR/Fuel-alt ceilings are expected scatter and improve to VFR levels this afternoon. However, a shortwave moving across the Great Lakes later this afternoon/evening might refuel snow showers over KBFD bringing the return of at least MVFR restrictions for a time. Confidence is lower in spotty snow showers and restrictions around KIPT, KJST and KUNV, but can`t be ruled out. Additionally, the NAM/GFS show elevated Snow Squall Parameter values over the Allegheny Plateau and Northern Tier between 18z-06z, signaling at the chance for more flight restrictions later today. Winds will be becoming westerly this afternoon and west to northwesterly late in the TAF period. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots are expected through the afternoon before starting to ease later this evennig. Outlook... Thu...Low potential (~20-30%) for snow showers across southern Pennsylvania. Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable. Fri-Sat...Dry conditions with VFR probable. Sun...Low potential (~30%) for snow showers across NW PA. Elsewhere, dry with VFR conditions probable. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033. Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ006- 012-018-037-041-042. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED... KEY MESSAGES... DISCUSSION... AVIATION... |
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