Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
|
191 FXUS61 KCTP 261636 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 1236 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Did add a mention of localized severe storms with strong winds late this afternoon and early evening, mainly for northwest and north-central PA. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Noticeable warmup this afternoon will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening, followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup this afternoon will precede rain and thunderstorms this evening, followed by a chilly/raw cool down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March. Strong warm and moist advection is well underway this afternoon across the Commonwealth, with temperatures climbing into/through the 70s in many locations. With surface dew points also on the rise (should reach the 50s by late afternoon, at least across northwest PA), we will destabilize the environment, to the tune of 300-600 j/kg of MLCAPE by later in the day. Shear profiles will also be strengthening, as 925-700 mb flow increases markedly into the early evening. Buoyancy and shear profiles alluded to above will create an environment supportive of at least isolated severe thunderstorms from roughly 4-9 pm, as a strong cold front pushes from north- south across the state. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat, with areas north of US-22/I-78 having the most risk. One good thing with this system is the probability of 0.5-0.75" rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible, particularly across the Alleghenies. Given long-term dryness in many parts of the state, such rainfall is certainly welcome. Later tonight and early Friday, the front should make its way south of the Mason-Dixon line, with strong low-level cold advection ensuing. As a result, Friday will be a much chillier day, with afternoon high temperatures a good 25-35 degrees lower than on Thursday, along with a stiff N-NW breeze. For much of the weekend, uneventful weather is foreseen, as a large surface high pressure system builds into the eastern states to bring dry weather. Temperatures will start out chilly on Saturday, with daytime highs only in the 30s and 40s across central PA. Sunday will begin a moderating trend, once the aforementioned high pressure system pushes off the east coast, and winds shift into the S and SW. && .AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions will prevail beneath a shield of mid and high clouds, based AOA 8000 FT AGL, that will continue to stream SE across PA today. The main concern in the near-term (through 14Z) will be LLWS concerns with the axis of a 40-45kt swrly 850mb LLJ shifting slowly east across the region during the early to mid morning hours today. The potential for sub-VFR conditions will begin at BFD this afternoon. Conditions there will steadily deteriorate to IFR later this afternoon and stay mainly IFR to LIFR into tonight. A cold front will gradually approach the area and is expected to be stationed east-to-west just north of the PA-NY border around 00Z Friday. Another period of LLWS will occur late today through the first half of tonight as a second WSW LLJ moves over Central PA ahead of the cold front. Showers and scattered storms will be focused along the front; however, recent hi-res model guidance does indicate some storms ahead of the front and have outlined these in PROB30s at BFD given slightly higher confidence. Further south, SHRA will be introduced in the TAFS prior to 00Z Friday at IPT/JST prior while model guidance suggests that this precip will begin at UNV/AOO in the 00Z-01Z Friday timeframe. Further SE (MDT/LNS) showers will reach the region around 02-03Z Friday. Outlook... Fri...-SHRA become more widespread with a slight chance of TSRA. Restrictions likely. Sat-Sun...VFR. Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions possible && .CLIMATE... Record high temperatures for March 26th: Harrisburg 80 in 1921 Williamsport 78 in 1939 Altoona 79 in 1998 Bradford 73 in 2007 State College 76 in 1949 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Jurewicz KEY MESSAGES...Jurewicz DISCUSSION...Jurewicz AVIATION...Lambert CLIMATE...Steinbugl |
|
All NWS State College Text Statements/Forecasts:
|
|||