Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

047
FXUS61 KCTP 221243
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
743 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* A significant and widespread winter storm will bring heavy
snow amounts to a large portion of Central Pennsylvania today
into Monday.
* Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded and now cover the
Central and Southern Mountains, the Laurel Highlands and the
Lower Susquehanna Valley.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Heavy snowfall is expected today into Monday over
practically all of the Southeast half of Pennsylvania.

2) A high degree of uncertainty remains with expected snowfall
over the rest of northern PA.

3) Ice jam risk continues into the weekend, but no significant
flooding is expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Heavy snowfall is expected today into Monday
over practically all of the Southeast half of Pennsylvania.

Confidence continues to increase in an area of low pressure
rapidly developing off the east coast today as a very dynamic upper
trough digs southeast from the Great Lakes region and amplifies
across the Central Appalachians and Mid Atlantic Coast. The
latest 00z Sunday guidance continues to come into good agreement
on the position and strength of the coastal low as it
strengthens/bombs out as its heads from the Outer Banks late
this morning NNE to about 125NM east of KSBY this evening.

GEFS Ensemble Plumes and their respective anomalies of various
parameters show a well-defined inverted trough over Central PA
today, extending NWWD from the aforementieond coastal low.

This trough is at the western edge of a highly anomalous East
to NErly LLJ (falling into the minus 4-5 sigma u-component of
the wind at 925 and 850 mb). Increasing upper level diffluence
ahead of the digging upper trough will support gradual
enhancement of snowfall rates across all of Central PA today
with snowfall rates within these quasi north/south bands of snow
exceeding 1 inch per hour (possibly over 2 inches at times in
heavy CSI bands across our far eastern CWA.

A complicating feature that will enhance and extend significant
impacts from this storm will be the increasingly strong NNE to
NNW wind - that will gust over 30 mph tonight (and likely over
40 mph) on Monday. This will lead to significant/extensive
blowing and drifting snow with localized near whiteout
conditions possible.

Previous disc...

This deep center of low pressure at the surface and aloft will
bring ample moisture and cold air into the region for winter
storm conditions tonight into Monday.

This system will bring heavy snowfall into portions of the
Lower Susquehanna Valley. The WPC Winter Storm Outlook continues
to tick higher, with much of the eastern half of the forecast
area now seeing a 50 to 80 percent chance of seeing snowfall
exceed warning criteria. We have issued a Winter Storm Warning
for portions of the Lower Susquehanna Valley where we currently
have the highest confidence in seeing 6 to 10 inches of
snowfall.

A prolonged period of upslope snow is also anticipated in the
Laurel Highlands as flow behind the surface low becomes
northwesterly. Most guidance continues to show a 48 hour period
from early Sunday morning through early Tuesday morning where
snow should fall, with 8 to 12 inches of snow expected along
the ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties. As a result, we
have issued a Winter Storm Warning for those two counties as
well. The enhanced wind gusts on the back side of this low
pressure system could allow for gusts up to 40 mph in the
Laurels, and brief periods of blizzard like conditions are not
out of the question.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A high degree of uncertainty remains with
expected snowfall over the rest of northern PA.

Significant uncertainty still remains regarding snowfall over
the rest of North-Central, NW PA and the Middle Susq Valley
considering the likelihood for a quasi-stationary nearly
north/south band of heavy snow (lasting several hours or more)
along the axis of an inverted llvl trough and leading edge of
the lower/deeper DGZ that will be situated from the Scent Mtns
to somewhere between KUNV/KSEG and KIPT later Sunday
afternoon/Sunday night.

A couple of things to keep in mind regarding this snowfall
forecast:
* As the low quickly deepens off the east coast, expect areas of
enhanced low to mid level frontogenesis and UVVEL to develop
in the western periphery of the system. Much of this banding
will likely set up just east of the CWA, but could still
develop across parts of our central and eastern zones.
* Multiple models continue to show a snow band associated with
an area of low level convergence within an inverted trough
extending northwestward from the coastal low. While this type
of band is more likely to set up somewhere in central PA, it
will likely be narrow with a widely varying snowfall totals
on either side of the band.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Ice jam risk continues into the weekend, but no
significant flooding expected.

Cooler air moves in this evening as winds become westerly,
allowing for a few snow showers over the north and west.

The ice jam threat continues into the weekend as daytime highs
in the 30s and 40s will support additional ice breakup. The
threat for significant flooding is low as we are not
anticipating any significant rainfall. Flooding would likely be
localized and minor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Continued widespread deterioration of Cigs and Vsbys is
expected as we head through this Sunday morning with snowfall
expected to gradually increase in intensity based on all model
guidance.

The biggest uncertainty will actually remain at BFD, where
recent HREF model guidance and obs have pointed twd lighter
snowfall rates and higher end MVFR conditions through 15Z.

Afterward, IFR conditions are being progged by the bulk of
model guidance.

Locally heavier snowfall rates are expected across southern
terminals (JST/AOO/MDT/LNS) as we head through the TAF package
with enhanced deep layer forcing, thus some potential for LIFR
conditions between 20Z Sun and 00Z Mon with low-to- moderate
(30-50%) confidence.

The bulk of restrictions will be based on visibility based on
recent GLAMP/NBM model guidance; however, will highlight that
low ceilings (between 500-1000ft AGL) are also expected across
much of central Pennsylvania as the low pressure area along the
coast intensifies with the approach of an amplifying,
increasingly neg tilt trough digging SE across the Glakes
today/tonight.

Winds will remain light throughout the first half of this
current 12Z TAF package; however, a steady increase in
wind/gusts from the NNE to NNW will occur tonight into Monday
leading to frequent blowing and drifting of the snow and reduced
vsbys.

Outlook...

Mon...Widespread IFR restrictions in snow. Gusty winds late
Monday.

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Thu...Scattered rain and snow showers, restrictions
possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ005-006-
010-011-037-041-046-051>053.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for PAZ012-017>019-
025>028-034>036-042-045-049-050-056>059-063>066.
Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Bowen
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Colbert/Bowen
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Colbert/Bowen
AVIATION...Lambert/Beaty

Forecaster's
Discussion: