Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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516 FXUS61 KCTP 270600 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 100 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No major changes made to the forecast at this time. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Dry weather Friday and Saturday with warmer temperatures. Snow showers possible Saturday night into early Sunday. 2) We continue to watch for the potential of additional wintry weather early next week and rain into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Upper level trough across the Northeast US is rotating eastward today as a weak surface trough in the Mid Atlantic tracks east and northwest flow across the eastern Great Lakes keeps lake clouds just north of the PA/NY border. A more dominant surface high builds in tonight and tomorrow with rising heights aloft contributing to synoptic scale subsidence and mostly clear skies. As the long wave trough moves east and the next short wave drops into the central Canadian Plains the weak ridge in between will amplify over the Great Lakes as it moves into the Northeast. The air mass associated with the ridge will be noticeably warmer with 850mb temps 0 to +2 deg C...allowing surface temperatures on Friday to climb into the low to mid 40s across north-central PA and into the upper 40s and lower 50s in central and southern PA. Temperatures are expected to remain mild overnight Friday into Saturday...only dropping into the lower to mid 30s. The relative warmth will persist on Saturday with afternoon highs into the mid to upper 40s north...and mid to upper 50s south. A stronger amplification of the synoptic trough over central and eastern Canada will occur Saturday and eventually drop south Sat night. Colder air will arrive with this trough and bring temperatures back into the 20s and 30s, along with a low chance of snow showers late Sat night into Sunday morning. The best chance (30-50 pct) of snow will be across the northern tier of central PA. No significant/impactful snow is expected at this time. KEY MESSAGE 2: The long wave trough remains mostly in place across the region Sunday night into Monday night, but uncertainty arrives with the wave pattern to the south that may bring additional rounds of precipitation to the region. A couple waves move in from the central US and attempt to brush the southern fringes of the cold air mass during this time with some potential episodes of rain/snow, but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the north- south extent of these waves. There is high confidence in the overall pattern becoming warmer by the middle to latter part of next week. Several short waves may move across the region during this time as well, which would likely bring rain (rather than snow) to the region. Will need to monitor this potentially significant pattern shift as this could prove impactful to the break up of river ice and lead to an increased threat of ice jams. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR ceilings and visibilities are expected across much of central Pennsylvania through 06z Saturday as a high pressure moves across the region. Friday afternoon, light SW winds are expected near the high pressure center in southeastern PA, with SW winds around 10kts with gusts possibly to 15-20 kts toward northwestern PA. In the evening/overnight hours on Friday, a weak cold front will approach the Commonwealth, though prevailing dry air will limit precipitation coverage. A chance for brief rain showers with this frontal passage is possible around or after 06z Saturday, primarily at KBFD, with largely dry conditions expected elsewhere. Otherwise, a mention of LLWS was added to KBFD around 06z Saturday as a southwesterly LLJ approaches the airport during that time. Outlook... Fri...VFR expected, with a chance of rain showers across northwestern PA overnight. Sat...Restrictions possible with rain/snow showers, mainly across northern PA. Sun...Restrictions possible with rain/show showers. Monday...Restrictions possible with rain/snow showers. Tuesday...Restrictions possible with light rain/snow. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Martin KEY MESSAGES...Martin DISCUSSION...Martin AVIATION...Teare |
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