Showers and Thunderstorms for the Eastern Third of the Country; Fire Weather Concerns; Flooding Issues for the Great Lakes Region

Showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of a cold front for the eastern third of the country. The rainfall for the Great Lakes region could prolong the ongoing flooding. Much cooler weather will filter in behind this cold front along and east of the Rockies. Where the rain is needed, the Southern High Plains, critical fire weather concerns through this weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

551
FXUS61 KCTP 191658
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1258 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added discussion about possible snow Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few showers to linger into this afternoon.

2) Snow possible tonight into Monday morning as colder air
settles in.

3) Freeze potential across northern/western Pennsylvania
tonight into Monday morning. Widespread damaging frost/freeze
threat extends across all of central Pennsylvania Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

4) Drier conditions in the early to middle part of the week may
result in a marginal increase in risk of wildfire spread.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A few showers to linger into this afternoon.

Some showers this afternoon, mainly across the east, just
behind the cold front.

Cooling aloft with some afternoon heating has resulted in
some showers across the far west over the mountains. Time
of day should keep most everything in the form of rain.

In addition, winds not that strong yet, dewpoints still mainly
in the 30s. Monday will have a much different feel to it.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Snow possible tonight as colder air settles in.

Cooling aloft and a secondary cold front will result in some
late season snow showers across the north and west.

Most of the snow will be over with shortly after sunrise on
Monday, as much drier air is advected into cental PA. Amounts
will be mainly a dusting to an inch over the higher hilltops.

Cooling aloft could result in a heavier squall early Monday,
as we get some heating, but the advection of very dry air
will likely offset the cooling aloft, thus think squall
potential remains low.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Freeze potential across northern/western
Pennsylvania tonight into Monday morning. Widespread damaging
frost/freeze threat extends across all of central Pennsylvania
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Confidence is /very/ high in a widespread freeze Monday
night/Tues morning due to a combination of high pressure
nearby, light wind, and 8H temps in the -5 to -10C range
overhead.

The setup for tonight is a bit less favorable, which means
freezing temperatures are unlikely southeast of the I-99/I-80
corridor. Farther west and north, a Freeze Warning is now in
effect. Despite lows in the middle 30s for the rest of the CWA,
sufficient winds and some cloud cover will limit the potential
for frost, thus precluding any Frost Advisory issuance.

The growing season has been activated for all but four zones
(Tioga/Sullivan/Potter Counties and Northern Lycoming County)
across central Pennsylvania as of 04/18/2026, see the latest
Public Info Statement for those details.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 4: Drier conditions in the early to middle part of
the week may result in a marginal increase in risk of wildfire
spread.

Monday will see lower dewpoints work into the area, as any
showers taper off. Also gusty winds pick up during the day.

Relative humidities dip down closer to the ~30% critical
threshold with Monday outlining the best potential for some
post-frontal gusty winds. With rainfall and cooler temperatures,
this may limit the risk of fire concerns.

Tuesday will trend warmer with slightly lower RH values, but
winds are not expected to be quite as gusty.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As daybreak approaches, cigs over the western highlands
(BFD/JST) and the Lower Susq Valley (MDT/LNS) were flirting
with IFR conds. Elsewhere, predominantly MVFR conds were
observed.

A cold front will pull east of the Susq Valley this AM, with
scattered rain showers persisting beyond sunrise. A few wet
snowflakes could even mix in across the NW mtns as colder air
returns behind the departing front.

Gradual improvement is expected today, with lingering -SHRA
finally pulling east of the region by midday. Cigs should
eventually rise to VFR at all TAF sites by aftn as drier air
returns.

Models suggest that a quick-moving wave of low pressure could
bring a period of -SHSN to primarily N/W PA (BFD/JST) this
evening into tonight. A few wet snowflakes or sprinkles could
even make it farther to the southeast during the early morning
hours on Monday.

Outlook...

Mon...Linger -SHSN possible N/W; otherwise, becoming VFR.

Mon night-Tue...Generally VFR.

Tues night-Wed AM...Scattered -SHRA possible.

Wed PM-Thu...Improving conds.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Monday for
PAZ004-005-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-045-046.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for PAZ004-005-010>012-017-018.
Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning
for PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert/Martin
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert/Martin
AVIATION...Evanego

Forecaster's
Discussion: