
A late season winter storm will produce a combination of heavy snow and disruptive ice starting this evening in the Northern Plains and moving into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes by tonight continuing through Thursday. Severe thunderstorms will likely produce severe wind gusts, large hail, a few tornadoes, and heavy rainfall across the southern and central Plains into the morning. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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556 FXUS61 KCTP 020750 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 350 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... *Lowered max temps across central and eastern portions of the area today due to classic springtime CAD pattern && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Big temperature swings continue through Easter weekend with the best odds for widespread rainfall late Saturday night and Sunday morning && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Big temperature swings continue through Easter weekend with the best odds for widespread rainfall late Saturday night and Sunday morning Big temp swing #1 occurs today with max temps +/- 25 degrees vs. yesterday in the NW & SE corners of the forecast area. This temperature swing is brought to you by a classic springtime CAD pattern. Hires model data showers scattered showers developing by late this afternoon with max thunder probs along and west of the Allegheny Front/US-219 where instability will maximized. Big temp swing #2: A major surge of warmth for early April returns to CPA into Easter weekend with max temps fcst to approach and potentially break daily records Friday and Saturday, April 3-4 (see climate section). Intensity of scattered convection will coincide with peak heating and a few loosely organized storms cannot be rule out particularly on Saturday PM. Rainfall totals through Saturday night are >1" across the NW zones where 1-2+ inches have already fallen in the past 72hr. Big temp swing #3 arrives Easter Sunday into Monday as a strong cold front shifts eastward across the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast. Band of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms will accompany the cold front across CPA with max POPs late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Timing of cold FROPA does not appear to be favorable to support a severe t-storm risk at this time. Temp trends may go neutral to non-diurnal during the afternoon on Easter Sunday preceding a chilly start to next week. Highs are below the historical average Mon-Wed likely reaching a nadir on Tuesday/Tuesday night. Widespread sub freezing temps are fcst Tuesday night or a few days before the climatological growing season gets underway in the Lower Susquehanna Valley. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A very strong push of cold and dry air pushed into the area late Wednesday afternoon and evening, with a gusty wind. The cold air is not real deep, mainly pulled in by a low center that formed just south of PA. This has resulted in a very tight temperature gradient. Not many cases of such a sharp drop in the temperature with a front. Normally the cold air this side of the mountains takes time to work into the area. Anyway, the main change I am working on for the 06Z TAF package is to edge off the fog some, main thing will be low clouds that will likely linger under the frontal inversion. With the dry air in place and the bulk of the steady shower activity moving out of the area early this morning, hard to see much in the way of widespread fog. After today, a strong southwest flow of warm air moves back into the area for Friday into the first part of the weekend. Outlook... Fri-Sat...VFR conditions and dry for much of the time, but some showers and storms at times, as a frontal system will be nearby. Sun...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front. Mon...Breezy and cooler with MVFR N/W, VFR elsewhere. && .CLIMATE... Daily record max temperatures for April 3rd and 4th: SITE APRIL 3 APRIL 4 Harrisburg 86/1963 | 82/1999 Williamsport 83/1963 | 84/1921 Altoona 81/1963 | 80/1950 Bradford 80/2010 | 72/1981 State College 79/1963 | 81/1910 && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Steinbugl AVIATION...Martin CLIMATE...Steinbugl |
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