Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

799
FXUS61 KCTP 050542
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1242 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Posted and now expanding a dense fog advisory for much of the
area.

* Keeping with the trend of holding temps down vs NBM for Friday
over much of the area, and have also done so for Thursday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fog tonight is getting worse now, but may improve toward
sunrise as the rain moves across.

2) Periods of beneficial rainfall expected into this weekend.

3) Warmest temperatures since late last Fall poised to arrive
areawide by Saturday. But, cool air will probably hang on Thurs
and Fri.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Fog tonight is getting worse now, but may
improve toward sunrise as the rain moves across.

High moisture in/on the ground and air have again begun to drop
visibilities, especially across the higher terrain early
tonight. But, the fog is also getting thick in many valley
locations in the SE, now, too. We have posted and now expanded a
dense fog advisory for much of Central PA. We are not entirely
confident in how long to run the advisory. The fog may
dissipate/visbys improve as the rain to our west moves in and
spreads across most of the area and even starts to taper off.
We`ll limit the run of the advy to 09Z for the time being, but
could easily see the mid shift having to expand and extend the
advy.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of beneficial rainfall expected into
this weekend.

On the heels of one of the driest winters on record, periods of
beneficial rain are expected into this weekend. Patchy light
rain will linger across southern PA today, before a more robust
moisture surge spreads widespread steadier rain into central PA
overnight through Thursday. Rainfall of 0.75-1.25" is expected
through Thursday evening.

PoPs and QPF for Friday look comparatively low. The next good
chance for widespread rainfall will arrive Saturday into
Saturday night, ahead of and accompanying a cold frontal
passage.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Warmest temperatures since late last Fall poised
to arrive areawide by Saturday. But, cool air will probably
hang on Thurs and Fri.

Cold air damming will delay the arrival of the warm air for
much of central PA until Saturday. We have continue to bump
temps down from NBM middle of the road numbers for Friday, and
we`ve done similarly for Thursday, now, too. The cloud cover,
mainly light but deep easterly flow in this damming scenario
make it tough to scour out the cooler air. The western hills may
get up closer to NBM maxes for Thurs and Fri, but we`ve brought
temps down a deg or two there, too. However, the persistent and
amplified upper level ridging over the Southeast U.S./Western
Atlantic will (eventually) provide a significant springtime
warming trend Saturday. Fcst max and min temperatures will be
15-30 degrees above average on Saturday.

Even with a cold frontal passage Sat night, it should remain
unseasonably mild into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/LIFR ceilings and visibility will continue at all Central
PA TAF sites through the day on Thursday and into Friday.
Multiple rounds of rain will move through the region over the
next 24 hours, with most guidance keying in on two periods of
steadier rainfall. The first is beginning now and will continue
into the early morning. After a relative minimum in shower
coverage for the late morning and early afternoon, expect
another round of rain to move through for into the evening.
Pockets of weak elevated instability embedded within these waves
could result in rumbles of thunder, though MUCAPE values look
too meager (0 to 200 J/kg) for prevailing thunderstorms at any
one site.

Outlook...

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible,
especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and
east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds
could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

Mon...Restrictions possible as low-level moisture increases.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
PAZ006-012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-049-050-056>059-
063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Evanego
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Evanego
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Evanego
AVIATION...Bauco/Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: