Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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452 FXUS61 KCTP 230629 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 129 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Winter Weather Advisory replaces Winter Storm Warning for Bedford, Blair, and Clearfield Counties as storm total snow forecast ticks down areawide && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the western edge of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm impacts central PA. 2) Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout the coming week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Light to moderate snow continues tonight as the western edge of the precip shield from a strong coastal storm impacts central PA. Rain turned to snow across the lower Susq valley around 5 PM. Since sunset, accumulation rates have been near 0.5"/hr in some of the snow bands across portions of the Lower Susq Valley and farther north towards Schuylkill Co. A secondary band in central PA, located within an inverted trough, has been producing snowfall at rates of 0.25-0.5"/hr. Expect similar intensities through about 2-3 AM as easterly isentropic ascent at midlevels is maximized. Still a medium chance (40-70 pct) that 1"/hr rates push into far eastern Lancaster County between midnight tonight and sunrise on Monday, but by and large the heaviest snow bands will miss our CWA to the east. Storm total snow (which includes snow that fell and subsequently melted this AM) is expected to range from 4-8" from Schuylkill Co south into Lancaster County and southeastern York County, with locally higher amounts possible in northeast Lancaster County and the higher terrain of Schuylkill County. Totals of 3-8" still expected in the higher terrain of the central ridge and valley region intersected by the north-south oriented snow band in the inverted trough. Lower amounts at lower elevations and on paved surfaces. Much of the accumulation is over by sunrise Monday, with lighter snow continuing through the morning in spots. A third area of higher snowfall is expected in the Laurel Highlands where northwest flow on the back side of the coastal low will support a prolonged period of upslope snow into early Tuesday morning. Total snowfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches are expected along the ridges of Cambria and Somerset Counties. Wind gusts increase to 30 to 40 mph overnight, leading to blowing and drifting snow, particularly in Lancaster County. KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple chances for rain and snow throughout the coming week. A clipper system tracking to our north Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring light to moderate snow to parts of the region. An initial wave of snow is likely as warm advection overspreads the area with additional snow showers and potentially a few snow squalls possible along the cold front as it moves through during the afternoon. Most model guidance shows a stronger low pressure system moving through the region Thursday night and Friday, but details remain uncertain. Rain or a mix of rain and snow would be favored for much of Central PA. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MVFR/IFR conditions will continue in snow bands and snow showers through this morning, with locations east of the Alleghenies improving to VFR during the afternoon as snow diminishes and ceilings raise due to diurnal mixing. Along and west of the Alleghenies, MVFR/IFR conditions are expected as rounds of upslope and lake effect snow showers bring ceiling and visibility restrictions. Snow showers will gradually taper off during the evening as drier air moves into the region, though MVFR ceilings could linger as mixing heights lower with the loss of daytime heating. Otherwise, gusty northwesterly winds are expected statewide through Monday night, with peak wind gusts generally between 20 to 30 kts. These winds could result in blowing/drifting snow. Outlook... Mon...MVFR/IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at BFD/JST, otherwise improving to VFR with gusty northwesterly winds. Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere. Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in rain/snow showers. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ005-006-010-011-017-025-034-037-041-046-051>053. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ012- 018-019-026>028-035-036-042-045-049-050-056>059-063>066. Winter Storm Warning until 1 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ024-033. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Colbert/Bauco DISCUSSION...Colbert/Bauco AVIATION...Teare |
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