Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

698
FXUS61 KCTP 201932
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
332 PM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Cloudy and muggy with occasional rain tonight into Thursday
* Gradual clearing Thursday night followed by warmup Friday into
the weekend as Hurricane Erin tracks into Atlantic Canada
* Strong thunderstorm potential Sunday followed by a refreshing
taste of Fall into the last week of August

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Narrow band of showers will exit the lower Susquehanna Valley
this afternoon. Lack of instability has kept rain rates in check
and with the dry antecedent conditions and fairly progressive
cell motions, feel the excessive rain/short term flooding threat
is very low/limited. Breaks in the clouds suggest best odds for
pop up t-storm is along the Allegheny Front. Otherwise, cloudy
and muggy/humid conditions this evening through tonight. Hires
models continue to show some pockets of light rain overnight
into Thursday morning. Low cloud cover/sub 1kft stratus will
blanket the area overnight with some ridgetop fog and patchy
drizzle/mist. Low temps very close to last night in the 55-65F
range or +3-9F above climo from east to west.

&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Low cloud cover will be tough to dislodge/erode on Thursday, but
we do anticipate some gradual clearing into Thursday night.
Hires model output shows some bands of light rain showers
drifting from NE to SW across the forecast area. Based on
expected cloud cover and recent verification, we were keen to
trim max temps by a few degrees across the board for Thursday.
PW values trend considerably lower Thursday night into Friday
which is a strong signal for relatively cooler and less humid
conditions. Min temps should be about 5F lower vs. Wed. night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ridging sfc and aloft builds into the area on Friday and brings
a nice warmup to start the second to last weekend of August.

Sunday could be problematic from a potential severe t-storm
standpoint with best overlap of CAPE/shear that we`ve seen in
quite some time. We will continue to risk manage, but may be
front-running a future SPC outlook. We`ll have to see how
conditions evolve.

Longer range model and ensemble data continues to show an upper
trough amplifying over the Eastern U.S. next week. This will
support a substantial cool down and refreshing taste of Fall.
The cool cyclonic flow may even generate some lake effect clouds
showers over NW PA. Otherwise, it looks like a mainly dry end to
August with below normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low MVFR to IFR cigs this afternoon will lower to widespread
IFR/LIFR tonight into early Thursday morning. High confidence in
IFR conditions with some sites possibly lowering AOB airfield
minimums. There will be some pockets of light rain/fog/mist and
drizzle beneath the overcast stratus layer. Expect IFR to MVFR
conditions to persist through Thursday with some clearing
likely from north to south Thursday night into Friday.

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...VFR. AM fog possible.

Sun...T-storms likely.

Mon...Sct rain showers/lower cigs downwind of Lake Erie.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Steinbugl

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