Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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919 FXUS61 KCTP 280724 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 224 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Snowfall amounts continue to trend downward for Saturday night into Sunday morning. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026. 2) Light rain and snow Saturday night/Sunday morning. 3) Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Mild end to February/meteorological winter 2025-2026 Another mild day is in store to close out the month, with high temperatures this afternoon expected to range from the mid 40s across the northern tier to around 60 along the Maryland border. A few rain showers are possible this morning across northern PA ahead of a moisture-starved cold front, though the bulk of the precipitation should remain to our north. Otherwise, expect a mainly dry day. KEY MESSAGE 2: Light rain and snow Saturday night/Sunday morning. A wave of low pressure is expected to develop tonight along a stalled frontal boundary to our south and will bring light precipitation to Central PA into Sunday morning. Accumulating snow will largely be confined to areas north of I-80, though snowfall amounts continue to trend downward (generally a coating to 2 inches). Model soundings suggest that areas farther to the south may struggle to see saturation reach into the dendritic growth zone, potentially leading to light rain or freezing drizzle being the predominant weather types. A light glaze of ice appears possible for areas south of I-80 and north of the turnpike. KEY MESSAGE 3: Wintry mix likely Tuesday followed by periods of rain with temperatures trending above average for early March March comes in more like a lion vs. lamb, but just a short wintry roar before springlike conditions take over. Modified arctic high migrating southeast from the Great Lakes now provides a chilly and dry day on Monday. This setup favors CAD/overrunning wintry mix scenario for Tuesday as moisture spreads north/east into retreating cold sector. Despite its magnitude 1040mb, the high appears somewhat transient which suggests a progressive wintry mix to rain ptype transition from SW to NE by later Tuesday into Tuesday night. Timing will likely shift around, but the main themes from next Wednesday through the first weekend of March will be increasingly mild with periods of rain. A sizable and springlike warming trend appears to have staying power based on the 6-10/8-14 day CPC temp outlooks. && .AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... There could (50%) be a brief period of light rain with MVFR cigs at KBFD between 09-13Z as a sfc cold front tracks eastward from the Lower Great Lakes. Patchy fog may develop again tonight, with the highest likelihood in the central ridge and valley region (AOO to UNV) and southeast PA (MDT and LNS). Still not enough confidence to prevail any restrictions, but may need to reduce cigs/vis if confidence increases. LLWS still mentioned at BFD and JST in the warm advection pattern ahead of the cold front. Have dropped those mentions after 12/13Z. Did not mention LLWS at KIPT for the time being since the gusty srly wind is currently making it over the ridge and mixing down to the sfc. If (40%) the wind decouples, we`ll start to mention it - but it should only be a concern until 14Z at the latest when the wind shift/cold front comes along there. The rest of the day will be a great day to fly with a light, veering wind for most locations. BFD may hold onto an MVFR cig until mid-day, but no IFR cigs in store. The next surge of moisture comes later Sat night as a low pressure area forms just to our south. It could (30-50%) produce IFR cigs later Sat night. We`ve started to hint at some lower clouds moving in for the tail end of this 06Z package. The first place that might have some precip would be BFD just before midnight local (010500Z), and if it gets briefly heavy, it could (40%) become IFR, but not (10%) LIFR. Light snow accums are expected N of I-80, and the chilly lower cloud deck elsewhere may also lead to some de-icing being necessary. Outlook... Sun...Restrictions possible in rain/snow north & fog southeast early. Mon...VFR likely. Tue...Restrictions likely in wintry mix changing to rain. Wed...Restrictions possible in periods of rain. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bauco DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bauco AVIATION...Dangelo/Banghoff |
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