Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

385
FXUS61 KCTP 110223
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
923 PM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Winter Weather Advisory issued for parts of Central PA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Ice glaze in east-central PA this evening and over the Laurel
Highlands late tonight into Wednesday could result in locally
hazardous travel conditions

2) Continuing to monitor the potential for winter weather on
Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Ice glaze in east-central PA this evening and
over the Laurel Highlands late tonight into Wednesday could
result in locally hazardous travel conditions

Hires model guidance continues to indicate light fzra and ice
glaze potential with occluded fropa over east central PA this
evening into early tonight. Later tonight into Wednesday, focus
shifts to the Laurel Highlands where fcst soundings favor a
relatively prolonged period of freezing drizzle as moisture
peels away aloft and low level upslope flow increases. Both
hazards are somewhat marginal in nature with very minor to spotty
ice amounts and coverage. However, it does not take much ice to
cause slippery spots especially on bridges and overpasses. We
coordinated with BGM, PHI, LWX, and PBZ on winter wx advisories
to cover the potential for locally hazardous travel.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Continuing to monitor the potential for winter weather on
Sunday.

Over the next few days, a closed low currently off the NorCal
Coast will drop southward as it opens a bit, and take a turn to
the east after reaching the Baja Peninsula. The trough swings
east over the srn US, and eventually develops a sfc low as Gulf
moisture is incorporated. Timing and occurrence are fairly well-
agreed- upon at that point. Mud gets thrown onto the crystal
ball as divergence in track of the low and depth/residence of
the cold air over the ern US are seen in the latest
deterministic forecasts.

If precip gets into PA, the hints are still there that the air
will be cold enough in PA to have some snow at first, but not a
slam dunk certainty. As alluded to, the GFS and ECMWF, and
ECMWF-AI latest runs are keeping the low track flatter. That
would make much, if not all, of the precip miss PA to the south.
But, ensemble means from both sides of the pond and nord de la
frontiere make precip well into PA with the CMCE mean pushing
the most QPF into PA - and much farther north. The latest NBM
guidance has trended lower with PoPs, which matches recent
trends in guidance. The best chance for precipitation is
currently across southern PA. Additional shifts/modifications
are likely and we will continue to keep an eye for a more
consistent/longer trend to make tweaks to this weekend`s
forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR clouds have moved into western PA this evening, with a deck
of low-end VFR clouds moving across the rest of the area. A
cold front is bringing some light rain across the region. There
is a low probability of some spotty light precip falling (in
the form of some -FZRA) at IPT between 02 and 03Z and for
locations along and east of US-15 where a Winter Weather
Advisory remains in effect until 05Z.

LLWS will also continue just ahead of this frontal boundary as
a moderately strong Swrly LLJ passes overhead. Once the front
passes through, winds will shift to the northwest and become
gusty. Gusty WNW winds in excess of 30 kts will be likely mainly after
10-12Z Wednesday with some periods of light snow/snow showers -
focused across the Western Mtns of PA. Wind gusts elsewhere
will at least be in the mid to upper 20KT range.

MVFR will develop from west to east overnight. KMDT and KLNS are
least likely to experience MVFR, but any restrictions would
likely occur between 09Z and 14Z on Wednesday. A period of IFR
ceilings is possible at KBFD and KJST over a similar timeframe. Lake
effect/upslope snow showers will develop Wednesday afternoon
and could bring IFR/LIFR visibility if they move over any
airfields. KBFD and KJST are the most likely locations to
experience restrictions.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...Sub-VFR most likely at KBFD and KJST with periods of
snow showers.

Fri-Sat...Improving conditions late week into the weekend

Sun...Monitoring potential for winter weather on Sunday. Most
likely restrictions are in southern PA at this time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM EST Wednesday for
PAZ024-033.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for PAZ042-
053-058-059.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff
AVIATION...Lambert/Banghoff

Forecaster's
Discussion: