Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

491
FXUS61 KCTP 101134
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
734 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added chance showers/t-showers across central and northwest
zones this afternoon and evening
* Discussed conditional threat for tornadoes tomorrow (Wed)

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Spring-like weather continues through tomorrow with
temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday.

2) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms tomorrow. Some
storms may be severe with damaging winds along with the
possibility of a few tornadoes.

3) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the
week and weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Spring-like weather continues through tomorrow
with temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday.

As heights continue to build over the eastern U.S. Tue-Wed,
temps in central PA may challenge daily records as they surge
+20-30 degrees above the historical average. With highs in the
upper 60s-70s and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more
like an average day in mid May than mid March. See the climate
section for more information on possible records.

Clouds will be on the increase through the day as moisture
advects in from the west. In some places, dewpoints are progged
to increase 20-30 degrees in just 6 hours between morning and
afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers/thundershowers are
possible this afternoon and evening during the peak of diurnal
heating, with increased sfc moisture and modest lapse rates
aloft creating just enough instability for convection.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms
tomorrow. Some storms may be severe with damaging winds along
with the possibility of a few tornadoes.

A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night into Thursday,
as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front,
numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated during
the daytime and evening on Wednesday. The SPC Day 2 (Wednesday)
Slight Risk area now includes practically all of central PA, an
expansion vs yesterday`s D3 Slight Risk. There is still
considerable uncertainty regarding the extent to which
destabilization can occur on Wed, especially with quite a bit of
cloud cover in the forecast and morning shower activity. Most
likely scenario is 500-1000 J/kg of SBCAPE across portions of
central PA, highest from I-80 southward.

With winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it
wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the
ground. In contrast with the system over this past weekend,
there will be more shower activity during the day on Wednesday
but also a more moist airmass in place before storms arrive, and
no cool air damming signal over east central PA. Given the very
strong low level winds and Gulf moisture connection, the
resultant 850 mb moisture flux is progged to be about as strong
as it can be this time of year across western PA.

While damaging straight line winds will be the primary threat
with Wednesday`s convection, the SPC D2 outlook also includes
CIG1 hatching over the Laurel Highlands and western PA, meaning
the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than
the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do
develop in that area on Wed, they could be strong.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the
end of the week and weekend.

As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front
cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front
may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to
snow Wed night into Thu. Gusty winds will also accompany the
system, with gusts of 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday.

Trending toward the longwave pattern that we saw most of the
winter, with cooler conditions on the east coast. Weather
systems will be moving fast so a lot of day to day variation
likely.

Periodic shortwaves in the prevailing upper level pattern will
lead to chances for precipitation as well as strong winds every
few days from this weekend into early next week. At this point,
the storm track favors the primary corridor of precipitation
passing north of the area. With overnight lows within a few
degrees of the freezing mark forecasted, precipitation type will
be largely dependent on what time of day it moves through. But
as of this time, no significant systems or appreciable
precipitation are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12z update... An expansive cloud shield (on the leading edge of
the strongest moisture advection aloft) has made it about as far
east as the Alleghenies this morning, but is having trouble
pushing downstream of the higher ridges. Thus, we have the
highest confidence (60-80%) in persistent MVFR/fuel alternate
restrictions at KBFD.

Elsewhere through the daylight hours today and right into this
evening, unrestricted/VFR conditions are anticipated.

One potential fly in the ointment could be the development of
widely separated showers late in the day into the early evening.
If such showers move over an airfield, brief restrictions
(most likely MVFR/fuel alternate) could occur. However, due to
the hit and miss nature and probable brief duration,
restrictions will not be mentioned at this juncture.

A more cohesive area of showers and lower conditions should
overspread western and central PA during the pre-dawn hours.
Confidence in IFR restrictions is fairly high (60-80%) at KBFD,
less at KJST (20-30%), and quite low elsewhere.

Outlook...

Wed-Wed night...Restrictions likely in more numerous showers
and some thunder.

Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers,
with restrictions possible.

Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow
showers most likely at KBFD and KJST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across
Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s.

RECORD TEMPERATURES
TUE 3/10 WED 3/11
MAX T MIN T MAX T
Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025)
Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025)
Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021)
State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986)
Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Jurewicz
CLIMATE...Banghoff

Forecaster's
Discussion: