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Heavy Rainfall Continues in Florida; Critical Fire Weather in the Southeast; Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns in Hawaii

Thunderstorms and periods of heavy to excessive rainfall will continue over Florida through Thursday. Gusty winds and low humidity will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions from central Georgia into north-central North Carolina Wednesday. A Kona Low is expected to bring strong winds, widespread heavy rainfall, and flooding concerns to the island chain through the weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.


853
FXUS61 KCTP 080205
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1005 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Forecast is high-confidence in near term

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Clear skies and light wind with Freeze headlines tonight and
again for Wednesday night

2) Warming trend ramps up into late week with low humidity and
little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Clear skies and light wind with Freeze headlines
tonight and again for Wednesday night

The sky is entirely clear over the CWA at 10 PM EDT. All is
going as planned. Only a few high clouds will try to move in
from the west overnight.

Prev...
With high pressure moving overhead, winds will quickly subside
and veer to the north tonight. Favorable radiational cooling
under the strong anticyclone with PWATS less than 0.4 of an inch
across the entire CWA will help foster one of/if not the
coldest nights until Fall with min temps ranging from the mid
teens to mid 20s.

Freeze warnings are in effect for late tonight through the mid
morning hours Wed for the recently activated/early onset
growing season counties based on a very warm March-early April
period and Growing Degree Days (GDD) tracking indices.

A Freeze Watch remains in effect for Wednesday night with fcst
min temps closer to/but still below the freezing mark.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warming trend ramps up into late week with low
humidity and little to no precipitation forecast through the
upcoming weekend

An increasingly milder southwest flow will transport warmer air
back into CPA by the second half of the week through the
upcoming weekend.

A pair of weak cold fronts brings minimal rain chances across
the bulk of the CWA, except for the NW Mtns late Thursday
through late Friday, where its close proximity to the
anticipated slow-moving boundary will bring locally over 0.25
of an inch of QPF from several rounds of showers. Mainly dry
conditions expected most of the time elsewhere.

The overall lack of rain won`t help improve drought conditions
across the southeast part of the forecast area and may also
bring an uptick in wildfire risk.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Skies have cleared across all of central PA prior to 00z Wed.
Winds are generally light from the NW with a few gusty spots
like IPT and ZER. Gusts are expected to subside by 01-03z with
winds going calm in most locations as high pressure moves
overhead. After 06Z, the LAMP indicates a low chance (20%) of
visibility restrictions at KBFD, with clear skies and
diminishing winds hinting at favorable conditions for
radiational fog. At this time, vsbys were kept at P6SM during
this timeframe given the low probabilities and large T/Td
spreads, but this possibility will continue to be monitored.
Some vicinity valley fog is a more likely outcome with any vsby
restrictions at BFD being brief.

By 15z Wed, the axis of high pressure will move to our east,
resulting in winds veering around to the N and then E/SE. Winds
will remain on the light side in the east, but some gusts to 20
kts will be possible in the afternoon across the Laurel
Highlands and NW mountains. Skies are expected to remain clear.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR.

Fri...Chance of -SHRA especially in the N/W.

Sat...Restrictions poss early, then trending VFR.

Sun...Chance of afternoon -SHRA in the NW.

&&


.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for PAZ026>028-035-036-
049>052-056-057-059-063>066.
Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert
CLIMATE...Steinbugl


 

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