Severe Thunderstorms in the Central Plains; Heavy Rainfall in the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys; Critical Fire Weather in the Southwest

Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail, severe wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across the central Plains. Heavy rain will pose a flash flood threat across portions of the Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Hot, dry and windy conditions will continue to bring a critical fire weather threat from the Southwest into the Great Basin. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

174
FXUS61 KCTP 081731
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
131 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Adjusted sky cover this morning based on visible satellite
trends over NJ into southeast PA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat risk through late week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing heat risk through late week

Seasonably warm and dry conditions today will be replaced by
building heat and humidity through late week along with an
increasing threat for localized heavy downpours/thunderstorms.

Thursday is projected to be the hottest day of the week with
fcst max heat index values most likely reaching advisory
criteria thresholds east of the Allegheny Mtns. Max temps are
fcst to approach daily records in a few locations Thu/Fri. The
early season/mid-June sweltering heat should slowly ease by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR-MVFR stratocumulus deck this afternoon will continue to
slowly mix out & scatter, with VFR favored regionwide by
21Z-23Z Monday as the boundary layer decouples. Otherwise, winds
will continue to trending southerly as a high pressure centered over
New Jersey drifts off the coast.

Anticyclonic flow around the departing high will bring drier,
land-modified air (PWATs mainly between 0.50-0.75") across the
eastern 2/3rds of the Commonwealth overnight. A moisture
gradient will set up along the Alleghenies, with PWATs around
1.50" just westward where high pressure influence has been
weaker.

The warm/moist air will continue creeping eastward as
the high pressure loses influence over our area, with even a few
showers (coverage <30%) possible across our western terminals
(primarily KBFD/KJST/KAOO/KUNV) between 09Z Tuesday through the
end of the 18Z TAF period. Flight restrictions are not expected
with these showers, though briefly steady rain may occur given
the moisture in place. Lightning may also be possible,
especially heading into the afternoon, though the tall/skinny
low-CAPE (<500 J/kg) profile will favor rainfall efficiency over
lightning production.

Outlook...

Tue...VFR favored outside of isolated morning fog. Restrictions
possible in -SHRA/-TSRA late.

Wed-Sat...Restrictions possible in -SHRA/-TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: