Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

334
FXUS61 KCTP 140423
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1123 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Continued to refine PoPs and ptype for Sunday
* PoPs have risen for the latter half of next week

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Sunday precipitation looks like mostly rain, but some
of the higher elevations could get a very thin, slushy accum.

2) Thaw next week comes with a high chance for precip, mainly
rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Sunday precipitation looks like mostly rain, but
some of the higher elevations could get a very thin, slushy
accum.

Small shortwave trough pushing across the upper Great Lakes will
help to draw precip just a little farther north than prev fcst
had going for Sun-night.

Models now in high agreement that up to 0.15" of liquid should
fall along the MD border Sunday aftn/evening. The measurable
precip is also progged to get up to at least Route 22. Temps in
mid-day will initially be mild enough for rain, but dynamic
cooling/wet-bulbing could lower the freezing level to allow some
snow to reach the hill tops, esp in Schuylkill Co and perhaps
even Blue Mtn and South Mtn. So, they could see the rain turn to
snow, but the QPF is low. So, no problems are expected with just
a thin, slushy accum over just the hill tops.

----------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Thaw next week comes with a high chance for
precip, mainly rain.

After a couple of days of warm-up, a baroclinic zone looks like
it will sink south into PA. It will then waggle back and forth,
never straying too far. The temps during that period may dip
into the 30s across the N/NE at times, so there is some mention
of RA/SN mix for days 6-8, but most of the area is expected to
have temps warm enough to keep it rain.

Maxes should get into the 50s in the S for Tues-Thurs, and at
least 40F in the cold hollows of the N. At least one of those
nights should stay above 32F for (almost) everyone, too.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Skies will begin this evening relatively clear. However, high
clouds are advancing on PA from the NW with the approach of a
fast- moving and weak bump in the mid levels. This feature
should increase and lower the clouds and make isolated light
SHSNs tonight VCTY BFD. But, the main effects to aviation will
occur after the sfc trough associated with the shortwave passes.
Clouds will (90% chc) lower to IFR at BFD and borderline MVFR
at everybody else except MDT and LNS and IPT. IPT is just about
the only other spot which could see any snowflakes, but we are
not expecting a reduction is vsby with any of those at IPT.

Winds should go mainly calm early tonight; however, as the
disturbance moves overhead it could cause a few hours of LLWS
across the western terminals. Winds will pick up slightly on
Sat behind the front. Clouds should break up some for the SE
half of the area on Sat aftn. BFD and JST don`t lose the low
clouds. On Sunday a system will roll south of PA, but spread
some -SN/RA into the southern tier. IFR possible (50%) JST-MDT-
LNS in -SN/RA Sun aftn & evening. MVFR expected (100%).
Elsewhere, IFR cigs/visby unlikely (30%).

Outlook...

Sun...Low clouds with scattered rain/snow mix over the area.

Mon...Low clouds linger much of the day. IFR expected NW.

Tue...Mainly VFR.

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Dangelo/Bowen

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