Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

401
FXUS61 KCTP 200208
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
908 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Watching trends on radar etc. in regard to fast moving weather
systems into the weekend.
* Flood Watch for ice jams issued for southwest PA tonight into
Friday.
* Winter Weather Advisory for light ice accumulation issued for
Sullivan and Schuylkill County late tonight into Friday
morning.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cloudy and foggy overnight into Friday with fast moving
bands of rain. Ice jam risk continues into the weekend.

2) Mixed/wintry precip remains possible overnight into Friday
morning across the higher terrain of north/east central PA.

3) Reminder that it`s still winter with potential for
accumulating snow Sunday followed by a brief cold spell with
brisk winds Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Cloudy and foggy overnight into Friday with
fast moving bands of rain. Ice jam risk continues into the
weekend.

First batch of rain weaken as it moved east, heaviest now
south of our area. Some bright banding on the radar earlier
with this batch, so use caution with pcpn estimates.

CAD continues with a very slow drop in temperature. Will
continue to monitor obs for temperatures and fog. Similar
to last night in this regard.

Main area that got the heavier rain earlier was JST, around
a half inch. So far rivers not a problem.

With the expected rainfall and ongoing snowmelt through the end
of the week, the risk of ice jams will remain elevated. A Flood
Watch remains in effect until 1PM Friday for southwest PA
(Blair, Bedford, Cambria, Fulton, Huntingdon, and Somerset
Counties) where the risk for ice jams is highest.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Mixed/wintry precip remains possible overnight
into Friday morning across the higher terrain of north/east
central PA.

Been watching temperatures across southeast NY state and
NW New Jersey. Much of the pcpn has been south of where the
colder air is. Next batch of rain likely to be more to the
northwest than what we had earlier, and might not reach into
the northeast part of the CWA much before sunrise.

Earlier discussion below.

The location and orientation of the retreating banana high
appears only marginally conducive for wintry precip later
tonight into Friday morning. The higher terrain ridges over the
northern and eastern portions of the forecast area remain most
susceptible for mixed precip. The latest ptype output suggests
more of a mixed precip evolution (rain/sleet/snow) with sfc
temps largely above the freezing at the onset. Freezing rain is
still possible, but coverage should be limited with the best
odds for an ice glaze =>0.01" over the interior north central
mtns in Potter/N. Lycoming and Tioga Counties as well as along
the northeast periphery of the CWA in higher elevations of
Sullivan and Schuylkill Counties. The marginal boundary layer
thermal profiles and weak/retreating position of the high
suggests any wintry precip may be relatively short-lived and
provide limited/low impact having difficulty accumulating on
roads.

We hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for Sullivan and Schuylkill
County where confidence in cold enough temperatures and light
enough precipitation for ice accretion is highest. Farther west
through Northern Lycoming, Tioga, Northern Clinton, and Northern
Centre County, ridgetop ice accretion is possible if
temperatures trend a bit lower than currently expected. Higher
rainfall rates will limit the efficiency of ice accretion there
and confidence in any impacts is sufficiently low at this time
to preclude Advisory issuance.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Reminder that it`s still winter with potential for
accumulating snow Sunday followed by a brief cold spell with
brisk winds Monday and Tuesday.

Main chance for snow on Sunday would be more from the inverted
trough, still a ways out to pinpoint location and amts of snow
with such a feature. Upper level low dynamics might be the key
for our area as well.

Earlier discussion below.

There remains a strong potential for a low pressure system off
the Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday intensifying into a nor`easter by
Monday. However, the track of the low remains uncertain with
plenty of variability in the model guidance. The ECMWF and the
UKMET remain farther south and offshore as it exits the coast,
whereas the GFS is closest and has the greatest impacts to the
Mid-Atlantic region. This is a low confidence forecast at this
time with northern and southern stream phasing differences
still to be resolved. It seems that even with a more suppressed
and eastward track, the associated upper trough and inverted
trough axis may be able to provide sufficient forcing/lift to
produce a broad area of accumulating snow. Confidence in
accumulating snowfall continues to increase, but significant
details remain TBD as it relates to the potential for
significant snowfall.

Confidence is much higher in a reality check back to winter
temperatures as a brisk northerly wind behind the departing
nor`reaster directs a much colder Canadian airmass back into the
region. Max temps on Monday and Tuesday will be 5 to 15 degrees
below the historical average. The cold spell won`t last long
with a moderating trend commencing through midweek as low level
winds turn more southwesterly.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Widespread IFR-to-LIFR conditions are expected as moisture
continues to flow overtop a cool/moist airmass overnight, with
lower visibilities expected where precipitation is falling
through 20/15Z. Localized areas of light freezing rain or sleet
is possible across northern Pennsylvania overnight; however,
have continued to keep mentions out of the 00Z TAF package due
to lower confidence with respect to FZRA at IPT. Further south
and east, very high (~90-100%) confidence in rain being the main
precipitation type through 20/20Z. Some potential exists after
20/20Z at BFD for SHSN; however, low (~30%) probability warrants
only mentions of PROB30s this cycle.

Guidance continues to struggle with respect to recovery
tomorrow; however, recent GLAMP/NAM model guidance continues to
outline IFR conditions across much of the region, with HREF/NBM
model guidance also trending in that direction. Thus, slightly
higher confidence compared to the earlier TAF packages, but
still would only describe confidence as moderate (~40-50%) for
the 00Z TAF cycle.

High confidence in LLWS thresholds being met overnight across
the western terminals, with the presence of an 850mb LLJ. More
recent HREF guidance has tracked back on the strength of this
LLJ, but based on recent NBM/NAM model guidance, seems like
LLWS concerns at BFD/JST/AOO/UNV seem well-founded. Further
east, slightly lower confidence, so have continued to leave out
of the TAF package at this time.

Outlook...

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.

Sun-Mon...Potential for restrictions in snow showers.

Tue...No significant weather expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Banghoff/Martin
AVIATION...Beaty/Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: