Critical Fire Weather for a Large Part of the Central U.S.; Areas of Severe Thunderstorms

Gusty to high winds and low relative humidity will bring elevated to critical fire weather across large parts of the Great Plains and more localized parts of the Great Basin and central Rockies Thursday into Friday. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible over the central Plains Thursday into this weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

032
FXUS61 KCTP 140433
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1233 AM EDT Thu May 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Thunderstorms still moving through the final 3 counties of the
CWA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Line of storms with cold front exiting the area. Unseasonably
cool Thursday. Thunderstorms may contain gusty winds and small
hail.

2) Significant summerlike warmup ramps into early next week
with the highest temperatures of the year so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Line of storms with cold front exiting the area.
Unseasonably cool Thursday. Thunderstorms may contain gusty
winds and small hail.

Very scattered severe reports from this evening`s storms. The
last of the storms are exiting the area headed toward Philly.
Most notable among the reports were a 44KT gust at MUI, a 46KT
gust at CXY (sub-severe gusts), numerous trees down in/near
Harrisburg, and a steeple off a church in New Bloomfield. See
LSRs for some details. Despite the expectation of the CIN
ruining the storm environment in the Lower Susq, the front gave
enough lift to overcome that limitation. A couple of showers
will linger over the far SE until midnight as we just got our
last shower of the night here in Happy Valley.

The rest of the night will hold just isold --SHRA in the upslope
areas of the western hills under the base of the upper trough.
8H temps dip just below 0C late in the morning, but air temps
should remain in the m-u30s at their coldest. So, if there is a
flake mixed in with the rain showers, it may not even make it to
the ground.

Previous...
Scattered showers linger into Thursday beneath the upper low.
Thursday will be the coldest day of the week. Max temps will be
unseasonably cool and quite chilly for mid May with highs in the
45-60F range or 10 to 20 degrees below the historical average
(frequent 20-25 mph wind gusts will only add to the chill).

Conditions will dry out on Friday with daytime highs rebounding
+10-20 degrees vs. Thursday.

----------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant summerlike warmup ramps into early
next week with the highest temperatures of the year so far.

After a cool start to May, guidance continues to signal a
significant warmup on the horizon for this weekend into early
next week. This large scale pattern shift should deliver a
rather sudden warm surge with max temps projected to reach well
into the 80s and even lower 90s. Daily record highs may be
challenged based on the current fcst Monday and Tuesday.

There may be some potential Heatrisk considerations looming for
early next week. This stems not only with the forecast high
temperatures, but also from an acclimation perspective
especially after a rather cool stretch of weather during the
first half of May. Probabilistic Heatrisk shows >50% odds for
moderate or higher levels across south central PA with fcst
heat index values starting to exceed 95F Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Not much on radar in our area as of Midnight, but strong
cooling aloft will result in the upper level low cutting
off over our area toward sunrise.

This will result in CU development with showers shortly
after the sun is up, along with lower CIGS today. The
wrap around moisture around the upper level low will
likely linger into early Friday morning, perhaps later
into the day on Friday.

Conditions will improve by Saturday, as the low moves away
from the area and high pressure builds into the area.

Outlook...

Fri...VFR likely.

Sat-Mon...VFR is likely much of the time, although brief
restrictions are possible with isolated afternoon/evening
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low temperature of 25 degrees was tied (1963) at
Bradford yesterday.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: