Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

049
FXUS61 KCTP 160905
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
505 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Wind Advisories extended across northern PA and issued east of
US-15 to account for gusty pre-frontal winds this afternoon.
* Added details about timing of multiple rounds of
showers/storms this afternoon.
* Issued Winter Weather Advisory for Laurels & Northwest
Mountains tonight for a thump of snow behind the cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Gusty winds continue through this afternoon ahead of a cold
frontal passage.

2) Multiple rounds of showers and storms will bring an Enhanced
Risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening, with
damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats.

3) Sharply colder temperatures arrive this evening with a thump
of heavy snow possible across the west, and the chilly weather
hangs around through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Gusty winds continue through this afternoon ahead of
a cold frontal passage.

An impressive wind field continues to overspread Pennsylvania
this morning and gusty south winds are expected throughout the
day. Locations to the north and west of any steep terrain will
continue to experience the strongest wind gusts during the day
today, with sustained winds of 15 to 25mph and gusts 30 to 45
mph expected. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the northern
tier through early this afternoon, and then a Wind Advisory will
go into effect for locations east of US-15 this afternoon
through the evening. Note that gusty winds are expected across
the entire area today and any showers or storms will tap into a
very strong wind field aloft, bringing locally enhanced wind
gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Multiple rounds of showers and storms will bring an
Enhanced Risk of severe weather this afternoon and evening,
with damaging winds and a few tornadoes as the primary threats.

The Storm Prediction Center has continued with their Enhanced
Risk (Level 3 out of 5) today. There appear to be two distinct
rounds of rain that will cross the region. The first will be a
pre-frontal line of storms that are currently crossing eastern
Ohio and will get into our western counties (Warren/Somerset)
between 9 and 10AM. As this line moves across the Commonwealth,
it will encounter increasing amounts of instability
(500-1000J/kg of MLCAPE) and intensify. The line is not
currently producing any lightning, but lighting activity should
commence by late this morning as it crosses the I-99 corridor.
Damaging winds will be the primary threat with this line of
storms, but a favorable low level wind profile with ~200 m2/s2
of 0-3km SRH will be sufficient for tornadoes along any portions
of the line that develop kinks or discrete elements with
embedded supercells.

The second round of concern is when the surface cold front
crosses the region. Although most of the instability will be
absorbed by the first batch of storms, a potent isallobaric
pressure fall/rise couplet will provide plenty of lift to
produce a narrow cold frontal rainband. With 50+ kt winds just
above the surface, it won`t take much to mix down strong to
damaging winds. This line of rain and winds likely won`t have
any lightning with it, but the wind will pack a punch as cold
air pours in behind it. The cold front and associated damaging
wind threat will clear our eastern counties by 10 or 11PM.

QPF will be 1 to 1.5" for locations east of the I-99/US-15
corridor, and isolated 2" amounts are possible at higher
elevations in Schuylkill and Sullivan County. Antecedent dry
conditions should preclude any major flooding concerns, but
ponding on roadways is a real possibility. If you have outdoor
plans on Monday afternoon and evening, be sure to monitor the
weather and consider changing your plans.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Sharply colder temperatures arrive this evening
with a thump of heavy snow possible across the west, and the
chilly weather hangs around through midweek.

This evening, once the surface cold front pushes through,
colder air should rush in. At issue is how much steadier
precipitation will linger behind the boundary. Given favorable
upper jet placement and the probability that some wrap-around
moisture will get steered into the Commonwealth, there is the
potential for a quick 1-4" of snow in western portions of the
state. HREF probabilities of 1" per hour snowfall rates are
impressive and a several hour period of thumping snow are
possible in the Laurels and northwest mountains. The latest WPC
Winter Storm Outlook, which depicts probabilities of Winter
Storm Warning level snowfall amounts, paints 30-50%
probabilities from Somerset north to Warren/McKean/Potter
County with a few pixels over 50% in McKean County. Although
Warning level amounts are unlikely, the combination of favorable
lift, heavy snow rates, and onset after sunset lead to
confidence in at least Advisory level amounts/impacts. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect from 21Z/5PM today through 06Z/2AM
Tuesday for the northwest counties. The Advisory will continue
through Tuesday afternoon (in collaboration with PBZ and LWX)
in Cambria and Somerset County for lingering upslope snow
showers.

Tuesday looks windy and much colder, with temperatures about
25-35 degrees lower than today`s highs (highs no better than
the upper 20s-mid 30s in many locations). Gusty winds will keep
wind chills in the teens and twenties all day. Scattered snow
showers/squalls with moisture sourcing from the Great Lakes will
traverse the region and could lead to brief reductions in
visibility and a quick accumulation of snowfall on untreated
surfaces. Temperatures will moderate this week and trend back
to near average by Friday with occasional chances for rain or
snow, but no significant accumulation is expected at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low clouds have expanded over much of the area most of the
terminals in our area are now seeing IFR ceiling. Model
soundings suggest that a few hours of LIFR ceilings will also be
possible at some sites, but confidence is low in that
occurring. Scattered showers will develop overnight and may lead
to visibility restrictions developing as well, MDT and LNS are
already observing rain and restrictions related to it. The main
concern tonight into Monday morning is LLWS with a 50 to 75
knot low level jet moving into the region. Ceilings rise to MVFR
during the morning and LLWS concerns decrease by early
afternoon as surface winds begin to pick up.

Our focus then shifts to a line of thunderstorms that will
develop over west-central PA in the early afternoon ahead of a
very strong cold front. Showers will first approach JST and AOO
around 15Z, though the threat for thunder at these sites is
relatively low. They will strengthen as they move eastward into
a more unstable environment, reaching UNV by 17Z. IPT, MDT, and
LNS should see the line of thunderstorms move through in the 18
to 21Z timeframe. These thunderstorms will be capable of
producing wind gusts in excess of 50 knots (possibly greater
than 60 knots at MDT and LNS), as well as a few tornadoes.

Winds will be out of the southeast ahead of the cold front,
sustained around 15 knots with gusts to 30 knots possible. A few
gusts to 40 knots will remain possible at BFD through the rest
of the evening. Winds quickly become westerly behind the front
and will remain gusty, with gusts to 35 knots likely. Much
colder air moves in behind the front and will change any precip
to snow for Monday night.

Outlook...

Tue...Blustery. Sct SHSN northwest. IFR possible at BFD/JST.

Wed...Warm fropa. -SN or -RA possible northwest.

Thu...Sct showers over northern PA with restrictions possible.

Fri...PM Showers move in from W PA, restrictions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ004>006-
010>012-037-041.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT
Tuesday for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018.
Wind Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ017-018-024-
033.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM EDT
Tuesday for PAZ024-033.
Wind Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for PAZ042.
Wind Advisory from noon today to 11 PM EDT this evening for
PAZ051>053-057>059-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Beaty
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Beaty
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen

Forecaster's
Discussion: