Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

News Headlines

Pennsylvania Fire Weather Awareness Week | March 23-27, 2026

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

207
FXUS61 KCTP 251856
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
256 PM EDT Wed Mar 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints this afternoon across N/W PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Noticeable warmup on Thursday will precede rain and
thunderstorms Thursday night, followed by a chilly cool down
for the end of the week into the last weekend of March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup on Thursday will precede rain
and thunderstorms Thursday night, followed by a chilly cool
down for the end of the week into the last weekend of March.

Partly to mostly cloudy today/tonight into Thursday and rain-
free most of the time, although the odds of a passing rain
shower do marginally increase late tonight through Thursday
afternoon.

Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the work week, with
fcst max temps +10-20 degrees above the historical average. A
bit more sunshine could push temps a few degrees higher than
currently forecasted maxes. Daily record highs seem out of
reach, but could get close at a few sites (see climate section).

The best signal for rain continues to be 00-12Z Friday, as a
strong cold front moves southeastward across PA. Heavy rain and
severe storm risks are primarily focused over the Ohio Valley
into the Midwest. The D2 MRGL risk SWO and ERO does clip the
western periphery of the forecast area as training showers and
storms could extend downstream into western PA. However, odds
are that increasing stability with eastern extent and fast storm
motions should reduce the severe/flood risk to the east of the
Alleghenies.

Behind the cold front, a gusty N/NW wind will help to deliver a
24hr maxT change of -15 to -30 degrees for Friday. The early
Spring temperature roller coaster reaches a nadir Friday night
with lows Saturday morning bottoming in the teens/20s. This will
be followed by a rather chilly start the last weekend of March.
The cool down will be brief, however, with moderating temps
expected to start the month of April.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Widespread VFR conditions are prevailing over Pennsylvania this
afternoon. Skies are partly sunny to mostly cloudy, but ceilings
remain above 10 KFT AGL. Air across the northwest has been drier
than expected, and any chances of possible rain showers this
evening remain minimal (<20%). Winds have also begun to pick up
over the area, but gusts should generally remain less than
20kts.

LLWS will impact all airfields beginning early this evening,
around and after 00Z Thu. The LLWS should continue through about
12Z Thursday. A cold frontal system is expected to arrive
Thursday afternoon and progress over the state throughout the
evening. Rain chances will begin over the western terminals of
BFD and JST around 18Z tomorrow, and rain will become more
widespread by 00Z. Expect lowering ceilings and flight
conditions as the rain moves over PA.

Outlook...

Thu-Friday...Showers becoming more widespread with perhaps a
thunderstorm. Restrictions likely.

Fri PM...Breezy with light rain exiting the southern tier.

Sat-Sun...VFR.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions possible

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for March 26th:

Harrisburg 80 in 1921
Williamsport 78 in 1939
Altoona 79 in 1998
Bradford 73 in 2007
State College 76 in 1949

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Evanego
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Evanego
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Evanego
AVIATION...Bowen
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: