Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

248
FXUS61 KCTP 170830
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
330 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*Dense Fog Advisory expanded to Lebanon County

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter this week

2) Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night into Friday

3) Mixed/wintry precipitation Thursday night into Friday and
plowable snow possible on Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Feeling more like early Spring than late Winter
this week

Following one of the coldest first 2 weeks of February on
record, mild weather for this time of year will be in place this
week with daily max/min temperature anomalies running 10-20
degrees above the historical average. Conditions will feel more
like early Spring than late Winter. Depending on the time of
arrival and coverage of precipitation later this week, daytime
temps may not get as quite as warm as currently forecast, but
will still be above normal.

The transition to a milder pattern this week is accompanied by
low clouds and fog as stagnant, warmer air moves over the
colder/snow covered ground. The lower Susquehanna Valley has
been socked-in and also experiencing poor air quality due to the
inversion and very weak sfc flow/calm wind. 07Z observations
indicate a blend of shallow stratus and fog with visibility
generally 1-3 miles. Schuylkill County (and vicinity) is a
common exception in this pattern due to elevated terrain and
often times more prone to locally dense fog particularly along
the I-81 corridor. RWIS data indicates dense fog with visibility
around 500ft (~1/10th of a mile) has also backed into Lebanon
County at the I-81/I-78 interchange and therefore we expanded
dense fog advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Periods of rain Wednesday, Thursday night into
Friday

Following one of the driest first 2 weeks of February on
record, much needed periods of rainfall are likely on Wednesday
and again Thursday night into Friday. Total QPF during the mid
to late week period ranges between 0.50 to 1.00 inches with the
highest amounts shaded toward the NW portion of the fcst area.
While we do not expect the rainfall to cause flooding, the
warmer temperatures and increased flows on rivers and streams
should increase the risk of ice jams at least on the margin.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mixed/wintry precipitation Thursday night into
Friday and plowable snow possible on Sunday

Model guidance continues to indicate a overrunning wintry/icy
mix on the leading edge of returning precip late Thursday night
into Friday. This would impact travel conditions for the Friday
morning commute. We may begin to message the risk of slippery
travel in the HWO.

There is an emerging risk of plowable snow on Sunday, although
the specifics on the strength and track of the associated low
pressure/coastal system are still very uncertain. Continue to
monitor the forecast.

Guidance signals continue to favor a seasonably colder end to
the weekend and start to the last week of February. The cool
down appears to be transitory and not long lasting heading into
the second half of next week/end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A few to several Deg C of warm advection streaming in from the
West-Northwest (within the 2-5 kft AGL layer) will create broad
scale, gentle upward vertical motion across the bulk of PA.

This will help to maintain plenty of layered clouds with low
bases (IFR to LIFR CIGS with IFR to MVFR VSBYs) across much of
Central PA through this morning.

Conditions should be mainly VFR at KJST and KAOO for the bulk of
the TAF period. However, periods of MVFR CIGS are expected
there.

Conditions today will be slow to improve with VFR not likely
area wide. The best chance for VFR will be over the southeast at
MDT and LNS after 18Z.

Outlook...

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

Thu...Dry early, then rain later in the day with
restrictions possible.

Fri...Rain with restrictions likely. Some snow may mix in over
northern PA.

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ058-059.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert

Forecaster's
Discussion: