Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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246 FXUS61 KCTP 241205 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 705 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Laurel Highlands until 9 AM today; A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for tonight and Wednesday morning across the Northern and Western Mountains of PA && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Breezy with an additional 1-2 inches of snow over the Laurel Highlands this morning 2) Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation for tonight into the Wednesday morning commute 3) Mixed/wintry precip likely Thursday into Thursday night && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy with an additional 1-2 inches of snow over the Laurel Highlands this morning. Seasonably cold NWly/upslope flow will continue through the mid morning hours today on the backside of mature Nor`Easter blizzard. Orographic lift with nearly orthogonal flow to the ridges of SW PA will be focused within the DGZ zone that occupies most or all of the several kft thick layer of clouds. This highly efficient snow production machine with work with this otherwise limited and shallow moisture to yield another 1 to 2 inches of fluffy snow - with the greatest accums occurring on the ridges to the west of RT 219. Gusty winds 25-35 mph will produce some areas of blowing and drifting snow before gradually subsiding later this morning. Wind chills will be in the negative single digits over the western and northern mtns early today. KEY MESSAGE 2: Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation Tuesday night into the Wednesday morning commute A clipper system tracking from northern MN through MI into Upstate NY will bring an initial short round of dynamically driven, moderate snow during the first half of tonight as the thermally indirect circulation cell and left exit region of a 140-150 kt jet max becomes focused over northern and western PA. UVVEL associated with this feature will occur within a fairly deep, svrl KFT that will fall right within the DGZ. Much or all of the snow associated with this event will likely fall within just a 4-6 hour period with lingering lighter snow/flurries after 12Z Wed when the cloud deck become lower, much more shallow and warmer well beneath the layer holding the DGZ. Limited lake and orographically enhanced snow showers will likely continue to impact the western Allegheny Mtns Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, and the recently issued Wint Weather Advisory runs until 18Z Wed for that part of the CWA. The best odds for plowable (>2") snowfall is along and north/west of the I99/I80 corridor. The snow and slippery road conditions would likely impact the Wednesday morning commute and may result in travel/school delays. KEY MESSAGE 3: Mixed/wintry precip likely Thursday into Thursday night Late week system tracking across the Mid-South toward the Northeast U.S. has the potential to bring a broader area of mixed/wintry precip Thursday-Thursday night. Latest model guidance shows quite a bit of spread on the location, type and amount of QPF associated with this feature, so we`ll handle the details of this event gradually and in a generalized manner until they become clearer. A band of sleet or freezing rain is possible in the transition zone between wet snow and plain rain. The best odds for plowable snow are, as expected, across the northern tier (near and north of I-80) and best chance for ice/rain from the PA Turnpike south to the MD line. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Cold air aloft, shallow low-level moisture, and northwesterly winds continue to fuel lake-effect/upslope snow showers across KBFD and KJST this morning, with KUNV and KAOO occasionally observing -SN as well. A resurgence in these snow showers occurred around 10z, bringing a brief period of IFR visibilities to KAOO. The NAM and RGEM have been handling the longevity of these snow showers relatively well, and are depicting that these snow showers will slowly taper off through 15z. Periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities are occurring with these snow showers, which will continue until these snow showers taper off later this morning and early afternoon. An MVFR cloud deck persists across much of the Northern Tier and near the Alleghenies, which will raise and break up as the day progresses. During the daytime, sunlight will help to raise cloud ceilings and break up this deck of clouds via surface heating and boundary layer mixing. VFR is likely across all airports by the afternoon/evening, with KBFD and KJST expected to improve more gradually due to their proximity to the lakes. The forecast becomes complex between 00z and 12z as a clipper system moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast, bringing a round of snowfall along the leading edge of the system. Model guidance suggests a period of MVFR to IFR visibilities late tonight and through tomorrow morning for most of our airports, with lower confidence in prevailing IFR across KMDT and KLNS as the greatest lift looks to be north of those airports. Outlook... Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere. Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in rain/snow showers. Sat...Mainly dry with VFR conditions possible. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST Wednesday for PAZ006-012-037-041-042. Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ024- 033. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl AVIATION...Teare |
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