Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Pennsylvania Fire Weather Awareness Week | March 23-27, 2026

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

470
FXUS61 KCTP 261834
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
234 PM EDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Did add a mention of localized severe storms with strong winds
late this afternoon and early evening, mainly for northwest
and north-central PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Noticeable warmup this afternoon will precede rain and
thunderstorms this evening, followed by a chilly/raw cool down
for the end of the week into the last weekend of March.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Noticeable warmup this afternoon will precede rain and
thunderstorms this evening, followed by a chilly/raw cool down
for the end of the week into the last weekend of March.

Strong warm and moist advection is well underway
this afternoon across the Commonwealth, with temperatures
climbing into/through the 70s in many locations. With surface
dew points also on the rise (should reach the 50s by late
afternoon, at least across northwest PA), we will destabilize
the environment, to the tune of 300-600 j/kg of MLCAPE by later
in the day. Shear profiles will also be strengthening, as
925-700 mb flow increases markedly into the early evening.

Buoyancy and shear profiles alluded to above will create an
environment supportive of at least isolated severe thunderstorms
from roughly 4-9 pm, as a strong cold front pushes from north-
south across the state. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
threat, with areas north of US-22/I-78 having the most risk.

One good thing with this system is the probability of 0.5-0.75"
rainfall, with locally higher amounts possible, particularly
across the Alleghenies. Given long-term dryness in many parts of
the state, such rainfall is certainly welcome.

Later tonight and early Friday, the front should make its way
south of the Mason-Dixon line, with strong low-level cold
advection ensuing. As a result, Friday will be a much chillier
day, with afternoon high temperatures a good 25-35 degrees lower
than on Thursday, along with a stiff N-NW breeze.

For much of the weekend, uneventful weather is foreseen, as a
large surface high pressure system builds into the eastern
states to bring dry weather. Temperatures will start out chilly
on Saturday, with daytime highs only in the 30s and 40s across
central PA. Sunday will begin a moderating trend, once the
aforementioned high pressure system pushes off the east coast,
and winds shift into the S and SW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Active period for the next 24 hrs as a cold front moves through
from N to S. TSRA just N of BFD as a shortwave trough is passing
over LE. The front seems to be near DTW and through YYZ,
marching steadily but slowly southward. Have placed VCTS at BFD
starting at 20Z, but TS could (50%) arrive before, then have a
couple hour break before more TS threatens. Have timed TS thru
each site with a rough 3 hr window. LLWS threatens most sites
for 4-6 hrs before the front moves through with the worst WS at
JST with wind field around 50KT FL020. Some of the TS will
contain hail and make significant downdrafts as they move
through. The storm motion will be more west to east, likely
riding along the front. Not dissimilar to a few days ago.

The strong llvl winds will keep moisture flowing over the front
and make numerous SHRA and a few TSRA behind the front. Cigs
probably (60%) lower to IFR across the N at BFD shortly aft 00Z,
and remain in place for most of the night. Drying N wind will
help many other sites stay MVFR behind the front when it is not
raining. The drier air and wind will also keep BR from becoming
FG. The highest chance for IFR will be at BFD and JST. The
morning should help all sites improve to VFR and be there for
the rest of the day.

Outlook...

Fri...Gusty AM wind diminishing aftn. Otherwise VFR.

Sat-Sun...VFR.

Mon...SCT -SHRA with restrictions poss, mainly W.

Tue...NMRS SHRA. TSRA poss W.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures for March 26th:

Harrisburg 80 in 1921
Williamsport 78 in 1939
Altoona 79 in 1998
Bradford 73 in 2007
State College 76 in 1949

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Jurewicz
KEY MESSAGES...Jurewicz
DISCUSSION...Jurewicz
AVIATION...Dangelo
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: