A very active spring pattern with tropical concerns across the Pacific. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Hawaii this weekend. Meanwhile we continue to monitor a developing typhoon that may affect Guam into early next week. For the Lower 48, heavy snow for mountains of California this weekend, increase threat for severe thunderstorms next week for the Plains and record warmth spreads east. Read More >
Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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537 FXUS61 KCTP 101714 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 114 PM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Any forecast changes were very small compared to previous updates, with confidence continuing to increase in a significant warmup next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Fire weather concerns will still be at play to start the weekend, although wind gust potential is expected to decrease with time on Saturday. 2) Much warmer temperatures are foreseen next week, with the best chance for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over northern and western sections of the Commonwealth. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Fire weather concerns will still be at play to start the weekend, although wind gust potential is expected to decrease with time on Saturday. A notable low-level moisture gradient is in place this afternoon across central PA, with a cooler, more moist marine- layer type environment in place up the Susquehanna Valley (depicted by a low-level inversion in the 950-925 mb layer). In the meantime, a warmer, better mixed environment is in place farther north and west (depicted by inverted-v type profiles). Dry, breezy conditions through late afternoon along the Allegheny front and in parts of the ridge and valley region (RH 20-30% and localized 15-20 mph gusts) will continue to produce somewhat favorable conditions for brushfire spread, and this is well highlighted by the present Special Weather Statement. As we head into this evening, a cool front is still expected to slide southeastward across the state. In many respects, this front has displayed ana-front characteristics, with most of the support for forced lift behind the actual boundary. A band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm should accompany the frontal passage across northern PA. Given waning upper-level support, shower activity should diminish with southward extent, with little if any rainfall anticipated along the Mason-Dixon line. For the most part, rain-free weather is expected this weekend, as a weak surface ridge builds in behind the aforementioned cool front. Given low-level dry advection and still some isallobaric forcing early Saturday, we could briefly see near or sub-30% RH values during the midday hours, along with locally breezy conditions (gusts 15-20 mph). However, on Saturday afternoon, as the lower-level pressure gradient relaxes, winds should slacken with time. On Sunday, isolated showers could impact the far northern tier, as some southwesterly moisture return develops in the emerging warm air advection pattern. Most areas, though, will see no rain drops at all. ---------------------------------------------------------- KEY MESSAGE 2: Much warmer temperatures are foreseen next week, with the best chance for hit and miss showers and thunderstorms over northern and western sections of the Commonwealth. On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good agreement that a mean upper-level trough will set up shop across the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will likely set the stage for a notable warming trend, with daily highs ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday onward. Unfortunately, with the brunt of the forced lift and moisture advection staying well to the north and west of the Commonwealth, drought impacted sections of south-central and southeast PA are not likely to see any real relief next week. ---------------------------------------------------------- && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR/unrestricted conditions will continue this afternoon in a dry pre-frontal environment. Tonight, as a surface cool front drops southward across the Commonwealth, we expect a period of restrictive conditions in lower clouds and light showers. IFR restrictions are most probable at KBFD and KJST, with fuel alternate-MVFR restrictions more likely at KIPT, KUNV, and KAOO. It appears much less likely that lower clouds or shower activity will make it all the way into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, so we anticipate a continuation of VFR/unrestricted conditions at KMDT and KLNS. Saturday, the air mass should dry out with time, so we generally expect decreasing cloud cover and increasing probabilities of VFR by/after 15z. Outlook... Sun...VFR anticipated. Mon-Wed...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Jurewicz KEY MESSAGES...Jurewicz DISCUSSION...Jurewicz AVIATION...Jurewicz |
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