Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA
This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA
See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.
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478 FXUS61 KCTP 171802 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 202 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Reintroduced isolated to scattered snow showers across much of the area today. * Additional details about conditional threat for flash freeze on area roadways this afternoon. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Continued blustery with occasional snow showers today over Central PA. A few locally heavier squalls are also expected this afternoon. 2) An active but generally dry weather pattern ensues for the second half of the week with a gradual warm up into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Continued blustery with occasional snow showers today over Central PA. A few locally heavier squalls are also expected this afternoon. A strong upper trough and embedded shortwave will continue to generate scattered to numerous snow showers today across Central PA. Steep low level lapse rates lend to high confidence in periods of snow for much of the area. Instability will continue to increase this afternoon, despite temperatures staying quite cold (highs in the 20s in the north & Laurels, mid 30s southeast). While temps will be unfavorable for snow to stick in the Lower Susquehanna Valley, subfreezing temperatures likely persist for most locations north and west of I-81 and a coating to two inches of additional accumulation is possible this afternoon (most spots will see less than 1 inch). The biggest potential concern today will be a low risk of high impact flash freezing. The March sun angle and partly cloudy skies means road temperatures will soar into the 40s and 50s this afternoon. With air temperatures below freezing for most of the area, any persistent bands of moderate snowfall on high- speed interstates could pose a risk of flash freeze (snow melts on contact with the warm road surface and then refreezes as the road cools to the air temperature). Thus far (through 130PM), we`ve seen multiple road weather stations drop ~20F degrees as snow showers/squalls moved across, but the duration of snow was not long enough to create a flash freeze (minimum road temp only got into the mid 30s). Most hi-res guidance depicts scattered snow showers persisting through dinner time tonight and the current Special Weather Statement remains in effect until 6PM. Snow shower activity will wane after sunset as winds also taper off. KEY MESSAGE 2: An active but generally dry weather pattern ensues for the second half of the week with a gradual warm up into the weekend. Heights rise tonight, but the general/broad upper trough sticks just to our west until Wed night. A bit of WAA late Wed and early Thurs could make --SN over the wrn hills, but only o/o of 1" or so. PoPs are low attm, but see them rising as we get more confidence in a very minor accum for the west. Tues maxes will be ~15F below normal. Wed just a few degrees milder, but still well below normals. The warm air does start to make a noticeable difference on Thurs, with maxes popping up ~10F from Wed, getting back to normals. A moisture-deprived Clipper moving across later Thursday/Thursday night could make a mix of RA/SN for the N/NE, esp if a passage/timing during the nighttime occurs, but there is a higher prob of precip being RA in the S/SW. Amounts are expected to be very light, and are only worth 30-40 PoPs at this range. Another shot or two of upper energy will visit Fri/Sat. They are also lacking any decent moisture. It will also be warmer for those potential light precip-makers. The warmness will only last until Sun, as a cold front should be dropping down from the N/NW. We`ll go back 10F or so below normals for the first part of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 18z update... Scattered to numerous snow showers will produce periodic IFR restrictions at KBFD and KJST into early evening, with at least some potential for similar conditions at KUNV. By later this evening, as the snow showers diminish in coverage and ultimately dissipate, conditions should improve to VFR. Otherwise, largely unrestricted/VFR conditions are anticipated through Wednesday. Gusty surface winds out of the W-NW into early evening, will diminish tonight, then be fairly light on Wednesday (5 kt or less). Outlook... Wed... VFR. Thu-Sun...VFR to MVFR with ocnl light rain or snow. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for PAZ004>006-010>012-017-018-024-033. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo/Banghoff DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Banghoff AVIATION...Jurewicz |
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