Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

607
FXUS61 KCTP 181159
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
659 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Freezing rain threat increased slightly late Thursday night
into early Friday morning over the north central ridges into
the Coal Region/Poconos/Endless Mtns

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Early Spring-like pattern continues through late week with
periods of rain, areas of dense fog, and elevated ice jam risk

2) Ice glaze possible late Thursday night into Friday morning
across the north central ridges into the Endless Mtns/Poconos
and Coal Region

3) Seasonably colder to close out the weekend into early next
week with uncertain wintry impacts

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Early Spring-like pattern continues through late
week with periods of rain, areas of dense fog, and elevated ice
jam risk

Mild weather for this time of year will remain in place through
late week with daily max/min temperature anomalies running
10-20 degrees above the historical average. Conditions will feel
more like early Spring than late Winter. Max temps still have
some downside risk (verifying cooler than fcst) with persistent
low clouds and onset/timing of precip occurring in the morning
or early in the day.

The transition to a milder pattern this week is accompanied by
low clouds, areas of dense fog, and poor air quality as
stagnant, warmer air moves over the colder/snow covered ground.
Melting snow is also helping to increase residual low level
moisture. DFA continues until 10AM for York and Lancaster
Counties; so far the 06-08Z obs do not favor an expansion of the
DFA.

Following one of the driest first 2 weeks of February on
record, much needed rainfall arrives today and again Thursday
night into Friday. Total QPF during the mid to late week period
ranges between 0.50 to 1.00 inches with the highest amounts
shaded toward the NW portion of the fcst area. While we do not
expect the rainfall to cause flooding, the warmer temperatures
and increased flows on rivers and streams will result in an
elevated risk of ice jams.

SPC continues to highlight the NW Alleghenies with a general
t-storm outlook for today. HREF data shows a narrow zone of
marginal instability spreading eastward from the Upper Ohio
Valley this evening within a region of warm air advection. Any
storms that can develop are expected to remain sub-severe; it`s
been a while since we`ve had a t-storm so this is more of a
callout or heads up that you may see a flash of lightning or
hear a rumble of thunder in this part of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Ice glaze possible late Thursday night into
Friday morning across the north central ridges into the Endless
Mtns/Poconos and Coal Region

After a brief break or lull on Thursday, another round of precip
is expected to spread across the forecast area Thursday night
through Friday. A strengthening storm system in the Midwest will
direct a plume of above normal moisture/pwats into a somewhat
weak CAD pattern signature forming over central PA. This will
set the stage for a potential overrunning wintry to icy mix
set up over the interior north central ridges into the Endless
Mtns and Coal Region. Ice glaze chances >=0.01" are 30-50% over
these areas with lower probs in the 10-30% range for >=0.10
inch. Any ice accumulation would impact the early morning
commute on Friday and a winter wx advy may be needed. However,
sfc temps continue to look rather marginal hovering around the
freezing mark which reduces forecaster confidence on the margin.
If the cold wedge holds longer like the NAM would suggest, then
odds for ice impacts would rise substantially.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Seasonably colder to close out the weekend into
early next week with uncertain wintry impacts

Another break in the action/drying trend for Saturday. We have
high confidence in progressively lower temperatures and colder
trend Sunday through early next week. Max temps on Tuesday are
likely to be 5 to 15 degrees below the historical average. The
cool down appears to be transitory and not long lasting with a
gradual warm-up heading into month-end.

There is a growing potential for a coastal low/nor`easter by
Sunday and early Monday for the East Coast. That said, when it
comes to winter weather impacts for central PA, confidence
remains very low given the ongoing uncertainty in the storm
track. FWIW the 18/00Z guidance has trended a little more in
the direction of the ECMWF which has been more suppressed with
the intensifying offshore low. The GFS has really backed off
from a snowstorm over the past 3 runs. Continue to monitor the
forecast as details begin to unfold over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Shallow cool and moist airmass in place across all of the
Central PA airfields with a light east-southeast sfc wind.

Increasing wind aloft from the west-southwest will overrun a
slow moving frontal boundary that extended from near Chicago
and Cleveland southeast to Morgantown WVA and Central VA.

This low level jet will enhance lift over the boundary and lead
to periods of rain/showers across all airfields today into
tonight accompanied by IFR to ocnl LIFR CIGS and IFR to MVFR
vsbys in -RA/BR, focused over the northern 1/2 to 2/3rds of PA.

Mainly VFR cloud bases and MVFR to VFR vsbys this morning,
before both CIGS and VSBYS gradually lower to MVFR/IFR this
afternoon. These conditions will persist through most or all of
this 06Z TAF cycle.

A fairly long period of LLWS this afternoon through at least
this evening as the aforementioned LLJ moves overhead.

Outlook...

Thu...Dry early, then rain later in the day with restrictions
possible.

Fri...Rain with restrictions likely. Some snow may mix in over
northern PA.

Sat...Lingering rain and snow showers.

Sun...Potential for restrictions in snow showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for PAZ065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert

Forecaster's
Discussion: