Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

696
FXUS61 KCTP 100556
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
156 AM EDT Tue Mar 10 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Added more details about Wednesday`s severe threat.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Spring-like weather continues through Wednesday with
temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday.

2) A strong cold front accompanying a potent upper trough will
bring showers and thunderstorms Wed followed by rain/snow
showers, gusty winds, and sharply colder temperatures into
Thursday.

3) Settling into a cooler pattern for the end of the week and
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Spring-like weather continues through Wednesday
with temperatures approaching record warmth Tuesday & Wednesday.

High pressure gave the region a nice early Spring day, with highs
just a few degrees below record levels. Many of the records
today were set in 2016. As noted yesterday, March 2012 featured
very warm temperatures. Temperatures came up over 40 degrees in
many locations from overnight lows.

Very dry air in place early could result in some spots dropping
quickly off to 5 to 10 degrees lower from nearby areas early
tonight. Dewpoints fcst to climb late, will monitor, have spot
fcst to go out Tuesday morning.

Earlier discussion below.

As heights continue to build over the eastern U.S. Tue-Wed,
temps in central PA may challenge daily records as they surge
+20-30 degrees above the historical average. With highs in the
upper 60s-70s and lows in the 50s (Tue night), it will feel more
like an average day in mid May than mid March. See the climate
section for more information on possible records. A few isolated
to scattered light showers are possible on Tuesday, with enough
cold air aloft to create lift despite the big dome of high
pressure.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front accompanying a potent upper
trough will bring showers and thunderstorms Wed followed by
rain/snow showers, gusty winds, and sharply colder temperatures
into Thursday.

Will continue to monitor SPC outlooks, minor shifts from day
to day so far for Wed. Thermal ridge gets east of the area
later in the day, not the best for central PA. Also timing of
the cold front will be a big factor.

Earlier discussion below.

A cold front will sweep through Wednesday night into Thursday,
as an upper trough approaches the region. The SPC Day 3
(Wednesday) Slight Risk area includes much of central PA south
of I-80 and west of the Susq River. There is still considerable
uncertainty regarding the extent to which destabilization can
occur on Wed, especially with quite a bit of cloud cover in the
forecast. Nonetheless, with winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km
of the atmosphere, it wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging
winds down the ground. In contrast with the system over the
weekend, there will be more shower activity during the day on
Wednesday (limits instability) and a much warmer & more moist
airmass in place before storms arrive (more favorable for
storms). The net result may be something comparable to last
weekend, though the likelihood of strong storms across Central
and Eastern PA is a bit higher overall.

As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front
cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front
may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to
snow Wed night into Thu. Temperatures ahead of the front will
remain in the 60s to near 70F Wednesday night and will drop into
the 25-45F range by Thursday morning. Gusty winds will also
accompany the system, with gusty southwest winds ahead of it and
brisk northwest winds behind it. A strong pressure gradient may
result in the need for a Wind Advisory Thursday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Settling into a seasonably cooler pattern for
the end of the week and weekend.

Trending toward the longwave pattern that we saw most of the
winter. Regardless of this, weather systems will be moving fast
so a lot of day to day variation likely.

Earlier discussion below.

Periodic shortwaves in the prevailing upper level pattern will
lead to chances for precipitation every few days from this
weekend into early next week. At this point, the storm track
favors the primary corridor of precipitation passing north of
the area. With overnight lows within a few degrees of the
freezing mark forecasted, precipitation type will be largely
dependent on what time of day it moves through. But as of this
time, no significant systems or appreciable precipitation are
expected.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06z update... A cloud mass pushing into northwest PA early this
morning (on the leading edge of strong moisture advection) is
expected to bring the onset of MVFR restrictions at KBFD. We
expect these cloud bases to elevate slightly this afternoon,
with largely VFR conditions anticipated at KBFD by 16-18z.

Also, with the wind flow just above the boundary layer already
notably increasing early this morning along the Alleghenies, a
period of LLWS is expected at both KBFD and KJST.

Although not strictly mentioned in the terminal forecast, the
combination of approaching maritime moisture from the Delmarva
coast and optimal radiating conditions will produce a low
(10-20%), but non-zero probability of fog at KLNS early this
morning. We`ll watch this situation closely.

Elsewhere through the daylight hours today, unrestricted/VFR
conditions are anticipated.

This evening, with strong moisture advection continuing across
western and northern PA especially, lower ceilings will become
more widespread in these areas. There is reasonably high
confidence (50-70%) in the onset of IFR conditions at KBFD, with
less confidence at KJST (only 20-30%).

Outlook...

Wed-Wed night...Restrictions likely in more numerous showers
and some thunder.

Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers,
with restrictions possible.

Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow
showers most likely at KBFD and KJST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across
Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s.

RECORD TEMPERATURES
TUE 3/10 WED 3/11
MAX T MIN T MAX T
Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025)
Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025)
Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021)
State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986)
Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025)

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff/Martin
KEY MESSAGES...Banghoff/Colbert/Martin
DISCUSSION...Banghoff/Colbert/Martin
AVIATION...Jurewicz
CLIMATE...Banghoff

Forecaster's
Discussion: