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Heavy Rainfall in Florida; Critical Fire Weather in the Southeast; Heavy Rain and Flooding Concerns in Hawaii

Thunderstorms and periods of heavy to excessive rainfall will continue over Florida through Thursday; and will begin to impact the central Plains today. Dry and gusty conditions will promote elevated to critical fire weather conditions in the Southeast. A Kona Low is expected to bring strong winds, widespread heavy rainfall, and flooding concerns to the island chain through the weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.


250
FXUS61 KCTP 081633
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1233 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Upgraded the Freeze Watch to a Freeze Warning for the current
active growing season counties.
* Adjusted dewpoints and RH to reflect Fire Weather concerns
tomorrow and Friday

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Frost/freeze conditions and marginal uptick in wildfire
spread risk into late week

2) Little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming
weekend with temperatures trending above the historical average
into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost/freeze conditions and marginal uptick in
wildfire spread risk into late week

Temperatures this afternoon will reach the low to mid 50s across
our region with plenty of sunshine and clear skies allowing for
moderating temperatures. These clear skies will also allow for
efficient radiational cooling tonight, and one more night of
freezing temperatures is expected. Lows Thursday morning could
once again dip into the upper 20s across the Lower Susquehanna
Valley, and low 30s are anticipated west of the central
mountains.

The freeze watch for late tonight into early Thursday morning
has been upgraded to a freeze warning. This warning will be in
effect from midnight tonight until 9 AM Thursday morning.

A marginal uptick in wildfire spread risk is probable into late
week as fuel moisture levels cure/drop closer to or below the
key 10% threshold (per DCNR fire weather partner coordination).
While minimum RH values will be largely below 30% for Thursday
given high pressure and dry air in place overhead. Marginal wind
gusts near 20mph will also bring some concern for wildfire
spread. A special weather statement may be issued later to
address these concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Little to no precipitation forecast through the
upcoming weekend with temperatures trending above the historical
average into next week

An increasingly milder south to southwest flow will transport
warmer air back into CPA through the end of the week. Forecast
max temps on Friday are +15-20 degrees higher than today (4/8).
Following a minor (5-10F) setback on Saturday, another warm
surge is projected into early next week.

A pair of weak cold fronts should bring some limited rainfall
largely confined to the NW Alleghenies Thursday night through
Friday night. Total QPF range is 0.10-0.50 inches. Little to no
rainfall is expected across the southeastern half of CPA in the
D0-D2 drought areas.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon into the overnight
hours and right into Thursday.

High pressure over the area will result in clear skies into
Thursday, as temperatures moderate closer to normal levels on
Thursday. The airmass over the area is abnormally cold and dry
to start, so not expecting any fog tonight, even in spots like
LNS and MDT. A nice break from the recent stormy and wet cycle.
Dewpoints about as low as one has this time of year, and not
seeing any signal for low level moisture off the big pond,
so even LNS and MDT should not have fog tonight.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR.

Fri...Chance of -SHRA especially in the N/W.

Sat...Restrictions poss early, then trending VFR.

Sun...Mainly dry. Maybe a shower near the NY border.

Mon...Chance of showers, mainly north and west later in the day.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for
PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bowen
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Bowen
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Bowen
AVIATION...Martin


 

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