Critical Fire Weather in the Plains; Severe Thunderstorms in the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes

Anomalously warm, dry and breezy conditions will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Intermountain West into the central and southern Plains today. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the upper Mississippi River Valley to the Great Lakes tonight through the day Tuesday. Damaging gusts, hail, and heavy rainfall are likely. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

913
FXUS61 KCTP 301122
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
722 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
*No significant changes to the previous forecast

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Anomalously warm temperatures ahead for much of this week
and as we head into April with passing showers and periods of
rain leading up to Easter Sunday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Anomalously warm temperatures ahead for much of this week
and as we head into April with passing showers and periods of
rain leading up to Easter Sunday

Evolving WAA pattern will bring much above normal temperatures
along with a gradual uptick in the chance of rain early this
week. Max/min departures will peak Tuesday/Tuesday night at
around +20 deg F and +30 deg F respectively just ahead of a
southward moving cold front.

A weak mid/upper level trough drifting east from the Ohio Valley
will generate plenty of layered clouds and some passing light
rain showers today. However, rainfall duration and amounts will
be minimal with a few hundredths of an inch or less.

The better rain/QPF signal develops Tuesday/Tuesday night and
will be focused over the northern tier on Tuesday, in closest
proximity to a slowly southward drifting cold front.

This frontal boundary will likely support the greatest chc for
rain this week, esp over northern PA Tuesday afternoon and
evening, within the southern portion of SPC`s D2 MRGL risk
area.

The fairly zonal flow across the Northern Tier of the U.S.,
Glakes and Northern New England won`t allow for much southward
push of this airmass boundary and the cold front becomes quasi-
stationary and pivots over CPA on Wed as the pattern aloft
amplifies upstream.

This will lead to CAD signature for Thursday as a strong,
1040+ mb sfc high slides over SE Quebec/Maine.

Another sfc low tracking through the Lower Great Lakes will push
its swd trailing cfront toward the Commonwealth late in the
week. But this boundary will also waver over the region and link
up with a 3rd Upper Midwest sfc low to maintain the chance for
rain in the forecast for Easter weekend.

Overall, the pattern to close out March and begin April 2026
looks be well on the mild side of climo with periods of rain.
Max rainfall/QPF footprint extends from the mid MS Valley
through the eastern Great Lakes with northwest PA most likely to
pick up >1" over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions with varying amounts of layered mid and high
cloud cover will continue across most or all of the Central PA
airfields into early this afternoon.

The main impact to departure and FAP through 13-14Z today will
be widespread LLWS with peak speeds within the layer from the
WSW (~240 deg) at 30-40 kts.

This moderately strong low level jet will bring in moisture for
the lowest 6kft of the atmos. The moisture will pile up against
the Laurels and Alleghenies (JST/BFD). IFR cigs are poss (40%)
at BFD during the late afternoon/night tonight.

Elsewhere to the SE of the Alleghenies (across the Central Ridge
and Valley region and Susq Valley) conditions should only dip to
low VFR or possibly into the upper end of MVFR.

A few isolated patches of light rain are possible out of the
thicker clouds/lower bases today - mainly across the Western
Mtns and perhaps at MDT/LNS, too.

LLWS returns this evening (and continues through the night at
all airfields) after boundary layer vertical mixing subsides
and another southwesterly LLJ moves in from the Ohio Valley.

Outlook...

Tue...Chance -SHRA, slight chc (20%) -TSRA, mainly west.

Wed...NMRS SHRA with TSRA poss (40%). CFROPA late day or early
night.

Thu-Fri...Sct to numerous SHRA. MVFR likely (70%).

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert

Forecaster's
Discussion: