Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

410
FXUS61 KCTP 100143
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
843 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Decreased MaxT (today) and MinT (tonight) given expansive
cloud cover across the northern tier.
* Slightly cooler trend to the forecast for the latter half of
the week, details still to be ironed out ahead of the
potential first accumulating snowfall of the season.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Tranquil weather expected with above-average temperatures
expected through Wednesday evening.

2) Potential for the first accumulating snowfall of the season,
especially across the Laurels and the northern tier of
Pennsylvania.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Tranquil weather expected with above-average
temperatures expected through Wednesday evening.

A stretch of dry weather is expected to continue through
Wednesday as a surface ridge works into the region. This will
also supply the region with above-average temperatures through
Wednesday evening. The main weather concern will continue to be
breezy winds through Wednesday given the low pressure system in
western Quebec and high pressure across the Lower Ohio Valley
bringing a tightening pressure gradient across the region.
Maximum wind gusts (30-40 mph across the highest elevations of
the Laurels) will be occurring during the afternoon hours today
and tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Potential for the first accumulating snowfall of
the season, especially across the Laurels and the northern tier
of Pennsylvania.

The main focus of the forecast period will be the potential for
the first accumulating snowfall across portions of central
Pennsylvania in the latter half of the week. Initially, chances
for precipitation begin to ramp up Wednesday morning ahead of an
approaching low pressure system moves into the region from the
Mid-Ohio Valley. Temperatures at onset are expected to be in the
mid-to-upper 30s across the northern tier and likely continue
to trend warmer throughout the daytime. It is expected that
temperatures will trend cooler after sunset; however, current
forecast outlines lowest temperatures remaining above freezing
given the considerable cloud cover across the region. If
anywhere is to observe some wet snowflakes overnight Wednesday
night into Thursday, it would likely be across McKean County;
however, confidence remains too low so have retained rain
mentions in this forecast cycle.

All ensemble guidance points towards colder air working into
the region Thursday night into Friday, which could bring the
first accumulating snowfall to portions of central Pennsylvania.
During the daytime hours on Thursday, temperatures at 850mb
range from +2 to +4C before trending closer to the -3C to -5C
range, outlining the extent of cooler air is working into the
region with this system. This will likely allow for a transition
to outright snow showers Thursday evening across portions of
northwestern Pennsylvania and the Laurel Highlands where
temperatures are expected to be much cooler than surrounding
locations. Gradual mixing will likely continue into sunrise on
Friday with areas generally north/west of the I-80/I-99 corridor
experiencing some potential for snow for the Friday morning
commute. There remains a bit of uncertainty with respect to the
daytime forecast of Friday with more recent NBM model guidance
trending slightly cooler compared to previous runs. This has led
to a slight increase in the snowfall footprint compared to the
previous forecast cycle. As this low pressure shifts further
east, breezy northwesterly flow begins to take hold on the
region late Friday and into Saturday which is expected to begin
producing lake-enhanced snow showers downwind of the Great
Lakes. Forecast could change with respect to this depending on
the exact wind direction; however, additional snow showers will
be possible for the first half of the weekend.

Given the set-up late Thursday through the first half of the
weekend and the uncertainties still in play with respect to the
snowfall/rain forecast, we urge folks to continue to monitor the
forecast. Given the signal for colder air in the region and
given the climatology across the region, some portions of the
area (most likely in the higher elevations of the Laurels and
across the northern tier of Pennsylvania) are likely to see some
snowflakes with this approaching system. The first accumulating
snowfall across the region typically catches folks off guard,
but keep in mind that we`re getting into the middle of November
where it will only become more likely that accumulating snowfall
will occur across the region. Take time to look over winter
plans, whether it is for your home and/or car as we continue to
transition into winter across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 01z Tue, stratocu was still present over much of central
PA with cigs ranging from IFR at BFD to low end VFR at UNV, IPT,
MDT, and LNS. A warm front pushing east overnight will lead to
the retreat of the stratocu into New York State through 09z. Gradient
slackens and sfc wind backs overnight. Eastern sites go light.
Low level jet may be just strong enough as the warm front moves
across the area to make LLWS for 3-6 hrs at the 4 western
terminals. A quick-moving shortwave trough zips by Tuesday,
picking up the wind again, but they should not be quite as gusty
as today/Monday. Very similar conditions with variable clouds -
mainly VFR - are expected Tues & Wed.

Outlook...

Wed PM-Thu...Conditions deteriorating to IFR and spotty LIFR
clouds, -RA, FG.

Fri...IFR clouds. -SHRA turning to -SHSNRA. LIFR, mainly N & W.
Gusty NW flow.

Fri PM...-SHSN, occnl IFR NW. -SHRA, MVFR SE. Gusty NW wind.

Sat...Improving, but still gusty with MVFR clouds BFD/JST. VFR
elsewhere.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Beaty
KEY MESSAGES...Beaty
DISCUSSION...Beaty
AVIATION...Dangelo/Colbert

Forecaster's
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