Pacific Storm System Across the West; Fire Weather Concerns in the Southeast

A Pacific storm system will bring strong winds and low elevation rain to much of the West Coast, and heavy high elevation mountain snow to the Sierra-Nevada through Wednesday. Fire weather concerns will continue into Tuesday across the Mid-South and Southeast as gusty winds and dry conditions persist. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

737
FXUS61 KCTP 210837
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
437 AM EDT Tue Apr 21 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Forecast overwhelmingly consistent.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Trending warmer through the week with a few chances for
precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Trending warmer through the week with a few
chances for precipitation.

Surface high pressure is continuing to slip SE. A weak low
attached to a weak front will approach from the northwest this
afternoon and evening, causing the pressure gradient to
tighten. The resulting SSWrly wind will bring in slightly milder
air. The dewpoint will try to increase very slightly today,
battling the dry air in place. Some lift will push the meager
moisture up over the dry/cooler air in place/overhead. An
isolated SHRA may show up on radar late this aftn in the N, but
it won`t be heavy enough to make anything wet. The low will make
a bee line for BFD overnight, and should provide enough lift to
kick off more showers and many of those will make things wet.
The SHRA will work from N to S, but will, sadly for the
drought-stricken southern tier, be dissipating as they near the
Mason-Dixon Line. QPF is only one to two tenths at most. Many
places will get less than a tenth. The low will pass overhead on
Wed, but much of the moisture will be displaced to the east at
that point. Therefore, the PoPs are relatively low for Wed
considering a front will be moving through during the daytime.
The PoPs will be be highest in the SW where enough instability
could be present to make a rumble of thunder. We did consider
dropping the PoPs even more than the small decrease the new
guidance gave us. Drought does beget drought. Will hold close to
guidance for the time being.

Thursday looks rain-free as high pressure noses down from
Canada. The next system splits away from a very mature cyclone
over the upper plains to bring us a generous slug of moisture
and a couple bouts of showers starting Friday and lasting much
of Sat. It will be more humid and create much more rain than
Wednesday, perhaps much of it from an MCS dropping down from the
Upper Great Lakes. PoPs from NBM guidance do linger quite late
into Sunday vs GFS and EC, which are much more similar with the
system in their respective 00Z deterministic packages. Most
places get into the 70s Thurs and Fri, but drop back near
normals (maxes in the 60s) for the weekend.

The big upper low circulating over ND & srn Canada will finally
slide eastward a bit as we start the new week. That will help
drive moisture and either a N-S front or a more developed low
through in the first part of the new week. Worth higher PoPs for
Tues either way.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Widespread VFR flying continues through the afternoon as high
pressure migrates eastward off the Mid Atlantic coast. Low level
wind flow from 170-220 degrees will increase with gusts up to
20kt across the western terminals KBFD/KJST. LLWS is possible
late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Scattered rain showers/isolated t-storm will spread from
northwest to southeast along a frontal boundary tonight into
early Wednesday morning. Sub-VFR cigs are likely near and
particularly behind the front with >70% odds for MVFR
restrictions across the most of airspace between 06Z-18Z Wed.

Outlook...

Thu...VFR. Partly cloudy and rainfree.

Fri...Light rain possible. VFR to MVFR.

Sat..Periods of rain with MVFR to IFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning until 11 AM EDT this morning for PAZ004-005-
010>012-017-018.
Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for PAZ019-024>028-
033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo
AVIATION...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: