Showers and Thunderstorms Persist of Florida; Unsettled Pattern Returns to Hawaii

A cold front lingering over Florida will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the state and a flash flooding threat to the east coast over the next couple of days. Fire weather concerns are expected in portions of the Florida panhandle into southeastern Georgia. A Kona Low is expected to bring strong winds, widespread heavy rainfall, and flooding concerns to Hawaii through the weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

763
FXUS61 KCTP 071058
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
658 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Freeze Warning issued for late tonight into Wednesday morning
* Freeze Watch issued for Wednesday night into Thursday morning

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Brief surge of cold air is accompanied by passing rain/snow
showers early today followed by Freeze headlines tonight and
Wednesday night

2) Warming trend ramps up into late week with low humidity and
little to no precipitation forecast through the upcoming weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Brief surge of cold air is accompanied by
passing rain/snow showers early today followed by Freeze
headlines tonight and Wednesday night

Reinforcing shot of cold air aloft will deliver lake enhanced
rain/snow showers early today across the northern tier. Tight
pressure gradient between compact sfc low exiting the New
England coast and 1036mb high migrating eastward across the
Ohio Valley will result in breezy conditions with wind gusts
25-35 mph. Today will likely be one of/if not the coldest days
until Fall with max (wind-chilled) apparent temps between 20-40
degrees from NW to SE.

Favorable radiational cooling under the strong anticyclone
will help foster one of/if not the coldest nights until Fall
with min temps ranging from the mid teens to mid 20s. Freeze
warnings were issued for the recently activated/early onset
growing season counties based on a very warm March-early April
period and GDD tracking indices. Freeze watch was also hoisted
for Wednesday night with fcst min temps closer to/but still
below the freezing mark.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warming trend ramps up into late week with low
humidity and little to no precipitation forecast through the
upcoming weekend

An increasingly milder southwest flow will transport warmer air
back into CPA by the second half of the week through the
upcoming weekend. A pair of weak cold fronts bring minimal rain
chances with dry conditions expected most of the time. The
overall lack of rain won`t help improve drought conditions
across the southeast part of the forecast area and may also
bring an uptick in wildfire risk.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Scattered rain/snow showers continue over the Allegheny Plateau
and Central Mountain regions this morning as a shortwave trough
moves across the Great Lakes, though coverage is trending
downward as a high pressure builds in from the west. VFR
prevails at most terminals with the exception of KBFD and KJST,
where lake- enhanced showers (KBFD) and upslope WNW winds (KJST)
have kept cloud ceilings around MVFR, with temporary IFR
observed in the steadier snow showers.

Northwesterly winds will continue to increase regionwide this
morning as the shortwave passes to our north, with wind speeds
of 15-20 kts gusting to around 25 kts expected. Rain/snow shower
coverage will gradually diminish through 18Z as high pressure
brings in a colder/drier air mass, characterized by precipitable
water values around 1.5 SD below climo.

High confidence (>80%) in VFR across all terminals after 18Z as
the shortwave moves off the New England coast and high pressure
dominates. After 06Z, the LAMP highlights a low chance (20%) of
visibility restrictions at KBFD/KJST as the high pressure moves
overhead, with clearing skies and diminishing winds hinting at
favorable conditions for radiational fog. At this time,
visibilities were kept at P6SM during this timeframe given the
low probabilities, but this possibility will continue to be
monitored.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR.

Fri...Chance of rain showers especially in the western
airspace.

Sat...Restrictions poss early N/W, then trending VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Wednesday for
PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.
Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
morning for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>052-056-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Teare
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: