Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

494
FXUS61 KCTP 022336
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
736 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories issued for all of central
PA from 11pm tonight through 9am Sunday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight.

2) Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of next week
ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Widespread frost and freeze expected tonight.

Clearing skies and decreasing winds will allow for temperatures
to fall into the 20s and 30s tonight, leading to widespread
frost and freeze concerns. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings
have been issued for all of central Pennsylvania and are in
effect from 11 pm tonight through 9 am Sunday. There was some
question about whether or not winds would stay elevated enough
over parts of southeast PA to preclude frost development, but it
appears there will be enough potential for frost to include
them in the advisory as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Temperatures trend warmer for the beginning of
next week ahead of a system that will bring widespread showers
and thunderstorms for Wednesday and Thursday.

A warming trend begins tomorrow that continues through the
middle of the week. Expect to see high temperatures in the 60s
and 70s on Monday and Tuesday as southwesterly flow develops out
ahead of the next frontal system that will move through the
region. A few locations across south-central PA may even
approach 80 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Scattered showers will
be possible on Tuesday,especially across northwest PA, but the
better chance for showers and thunderstorms looks to be on
Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slow moving cold front.
Temperatures once again turn cooler behind this front, with
potential frost/freeze concerns developing once again to end the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00z update... VFR/unrestricted conditions are primarily expected
through the day on Sunday, as the air mass trends drier over
time across PA. The only potential exception is across the
Allegheny mountains this evening, with patchy lower clouds and
spotty light showers still in place. These lower conditions
would mainly impact KJST, and only through 02-03z.

Surface winds become light (3-5 kt or less) overnight and early
Sunday, then pick up and become gusty Sunday afternoon out of
the W-NW (gusting around 20 kt at times).

Outlook...

Mon...Scattered -SHRA develop across wrn PA, and some thunder
is possible by Monday PM.

Tue...SHRA/TSRA becomes more widespread from NW to SE;
restrictions possible.

Wed...SHRA/TSRA continue; restrictions likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033-034-037-041-042-045-046.
Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Sunday for
PAZ035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Bauco
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Bauco
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Bauco
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Evanego

Forecaster's
Discussion: