Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

623
FXUS61 KCTP 050047
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
747 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Kept max temperatures on Friday a bit cooler than model
guidance, especially across eastern zones, due to the expected
presence of a backdoor cold front.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Periods of beneficial rainfall expected into this weekend.

2) Warmest temperatures since late last Fall poised to arrive
areawide by Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Periods of beneficial rainfall expected into
this weekend.

On the heels of one of the driest winters on record, periods of
beneficial rain are expected into this weekend. Patchy light
rain will linger across southern PA today, before a more robust
moisture surge spreads widespread steadier rain into central PA
overnight through Thursday. Rainfall of 0.75-1.25" is expected
through Thursday evening.

PoPs and QPF for Friday look comparatively low. The next good
chance for widespread rainfall will arrive Saturday into
Saturday night, ahead of and accompanying a cold frontal
passage.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warmest temperatures since late last Fall poised
to arrive areawide by Saturday.

Cold air damming will delay the arrival of the warm air for much
of central PA until Saturday. However, the persistent and
amplified upper level ridging over the Southeast U.S./Western
Atlantic will (eventually) provide a significant springtime
warming trend by Saturday. Fcst max and min temperatures will
be 15-30 degrees above average on Saturday.

Even with a cold frontal passage Sat night, it should remain
unseasonably mild into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities are underway across most
of our sites this evening as mild, saturated air aloft overruns
cool, moist air at the surface, forming an area of persistent
low clouds and fog. This will expand into the Northern Tier as
moisture flows into the region ahead of an approaching low
pressure system, with a deterioration to LIFR conditions
expected overnight.

Rounds of rain and showers associated with the approaching
system will move west to east across Pennsylvania through
tomorrow evening, with the HREF depicting a wave of steadier
rain during the overnight and early morning hours, and another
wave of steadier rain in the afternoon and through the evening.
Pockets of weak elevated instability embedded within these waves
could result in rumbles of thunder, though MUCAPE values look
too meager (0 to 200 J/kg) for prevailing thunderstorms at any
one site. A relative lull is expected between these waves during
the late morning and early afternoon, though scattered rain
showers are still expected.

Outlook...

Fri...Stationary front across the region. Restrictions possible,
especially across central/eastern airfields.

Sat...Restrictions remain possible, especially in the north and
east. VFR most likely from KJST south and west, where winds
could get gusty in the warm sector. Afternoon/evening showers
and thunderstorms likely with cold FROPA.

Sun...Trending towards VFR.

Mon...Restrictions possible as low-level moisture increases.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Evanego
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Evanego
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Evanego
AVIATION...Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: