Fire Weather Issues; Pacific System Moving Inland

Dry fuels, strong winds and dry weather will continue to bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions to the areas of the Plains, Midwest and Southeast today. A Pacific storm system will bring low elevation rain and heavy high elevation mountain snow to California through early week, expanding into the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and southern California on Tuesday. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

578
FXUS61 KCTP 201920
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
320 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* No significant changes with this late morning update

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Widespread damaging frost/freeze threat across all of
central Pennsylvania tonight into Tuesday morning.

2) Dry conditions through Tuesday may result in a marginal
increase in risk of wildfire spread.

3) Trending warmer through the week with only occasional chances
for precipitation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A second and final round of a widespread
damaging frost/freeze will occur across all of Central
Pennsylvania tonight into Tuesday morning.

A near certainty of a widespread freeze tonight into Tues
morning as a result of a large area of sfc high pressure
drifting overhead and producing optimal conditions for
radiational cooling of the ground via clear skies, anomalously
low PWAT air of just 0.2-0.3 of an inch, light wind, and 8H
temps in the -5 to -10C range overhead.

Lows will range from the upper teens in the typical cold spots
across the northwest mountains to near 30 in the Lower
Susquehanna Valley.

The growing season has been activated for all but four zones
(Tioga/Sullivan/Potter Counties and Northern Lycoming County)
across central Pennsylvania as of 04/18/2026, see the latest
Public Info Statement for those details. A Freeze Warning is in
effect for all the zones with active growing season.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dry conditions through Tuesday may result in a
marginal increase in risk of wildfire spread.

For the rest of today, we`ll see lower dewpoints work into the
area along with gusty northwest winds. A few light snow showers
are likely across the northern tier and Endless Mtns of Ncent
PA as a shortwave moves overhead and steepens lapse rates, but
no accumulation is expected. Typically such dry air (RH values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s percent) and gusty
winds (20 to 25 mph) would lead to an elevated risk of wildfire
spread, but rainfall over the weekend and chilly temperatures
(highs in the upper 30s to low 50s) will largely mitigate
concerns today.

The combination of low RH, gusty winds, and some sunshine today
should help cure fuels to some extent. Factoring in slightly
warmer temperatures on Tuesday (highs in the 50s to low 60s)
could lead to a slight uptick in wildfire risk. Though winds
will be comparatively lighter on Tuesday compared to Monday.
The bottom line with all of this is to just use caution if you
plan to burn debris or handle any equipment. Only YOU can
prevent wildfires.

-----------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Trending warmer through the week with only occasional
chances for precipitation.

High pressure will be along the Delmarva Coast by Tuesday
afternoon. West or southwesterly flow rotating around the north
side of surface high pressure will usher in increasingly mild
temperatures. Friday is progged to be the warmest day as
temperatures rise to near 80F in the southwest corner of our
forecast area and into the middle 60s F in the northeast.

A fairly moisture-starved weak cold front will drift across the
region on Wednesday, bringing plenty of clouds and scattered
rain showers. There is not much upper level support for
thunderstorms at this point, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot
be ruled out - mainly across the Laurel Highlands.

Rainfall will generally average below a tenth of an inch and
Wednesday will certainly not be a washout. The second half of
the week looks rainfree as high pressure again takes over. The
next considerable chance for rain returns Friday night into
Saturday, though there are notable timing differences between
the faster GFS and slower EC members.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The combination of the coldest air within an upper level trough
and unseasonably cold westerly/upslope flow will bring MVFR to
low end VFR cigs. Scattered rain/snow showers will be
concentrated mainly across across the northern tier counties of
the state.

Very brief MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions are possible in
the passing snow showers INVOF of KBFD (to perhaps KIPT for
the mid to late afternoon hours).

It will be breezy through the afternoon with sfc wind gusts
20-25kt from 290-320 degrees. High pressure building across the
airspace will return widespread VFR conditions (SKC-SCT250) and
decrease winds later tonight into early Tuesday. Milder air
aloft pushing in from the west will transport a thick layer of
non-precipitating, mid-level clouds very late tonight (West)
and by the mid morning hours Tuesday across the far east. The
clouds will lower to a low VFR stratocu deck Tuesday
afternoon/night with some showers scattered about, but more
numerous across the SW third of the state with isolated TSRA
possible.

Outlook...

Tue night-Wed...Scattered rain showers/isolated t-storm
possible.

Thu...VFR. Partly cloudy and rainfree.

Fri-Sat...Increasing odds for rain showers Friday into Sat.
Periods of IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS...with the lowest conditions
Friday night and Sat morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A very warm March and April has resulted in a record number of
80 degree days so far this year at several climate sites.

Altoona recorded a high temperature of 80F on Saturday. It was
the 7th 80+ degree day so far this year. Year to date, that
shatters the previous record of 4 days with Max T >= 80F at the
site, which occurred in 1976, 1977, and 1998.

March 22: 83F (daily record)
April 04: 80F (daily record)
April 13: 80F
April 14: 81F
April 15: 84F (daily record)
April 16: 85F
April 18: 80F

SITE YTD IN 2026 PREVIOUS RECORD
Altoona 7 4 (1976, 1977, 1998)
Harrisburg 8 6 (1945)
State College 6 6 (2010)

Williamsport has recorded 5 day with MaxT >= 80F, which falls
shy of the existing record of 7 such days through April 18,
2010.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for
PAZ004-005-010>012-017-018.
Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Tuesday for
PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Steinbugl
CLIMATE...Banghoff

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