Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Renaming of Heat-related Watches & Warnings

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

517
FXUS61 KCTP 031054
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
654 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Scattered storms this afternoon and very early evening as a
cold front moves through. Some may make gusty winds and hail.
* Drier/less humid/more comfortable conditions are likely for
Independence Day.
* Trending warmer and more humid but rain-free this weekend
* Hot and unsettled weather returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Earlier convection is gone. River valley fog in the nrn
mtns should go away soon, too. Good forcing crosses the lower
lakes later this morning and enters nrn PA in the afternoon,
rekindling deep convection. Severe parameters aren`t shabby,
with CAPE into the 1000-2000J/kg range ahead of and along the
cold front. Deep layer shear of 40-50KTs at the peak could be
enough to make some supercells, but mostly clusters. However, we
will be under the descending area of the curved jet max at 5H.
That is the ingredient which could keep the convection
suppressed somewhat. SPC has continued the Day1 Outlook exactly
as the old Day2 = most of the CWA is in the MRGL risk area with
a SLGT risk barely touching the far eastern two cos. Will
continue to mention TS with small hail and gusty winds. The
worst of the storms will likely be off to our east.

Some lingering SHRA will last until just after sunset in the SE,
but it`s only worth a 20 PoP for isolated coverage. After the
front passes, which will be mid aftn in the N, and early evening
in the S, the air will dry out with sfc dewpoints into the 50s
by sunrise Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday looks like a stellar Independence Day. No risk of any
precip, and humidity getting very low during the afternoon. Have
strayed from the NBM dewpoints for Fri and Sat aftns, with
Friday being the largest deviance. Light N wind and good
sunshine Fri. Very dry air just above the sfc in the AM and
mixing to ~5kft in the aftn could drop dewpoints into the 40s
across the Allegheny Plateau and M50s in the SE. That may not be
enough of a move, but will start with that. Maxes on Friday of
U70s to M80s are very seasonable, and we`ll probably see a few
degs of uptick in temps Sat aftn. High pressure will provide a
dry time for both days. A little fog will be had in the valleys
since it gets close to 50F in the nrn mtns Fri AM, but the dry
airmass will work against it. Dewpoints are going to be low
enough on Sat AM that there won`t be much, if any, fog. Then,
the wind turns Swrly, and humidity levels start to creep upward
during the long holiday weekend, but no rain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Compared to previous guidance, today`s model runs have slowed
down with the arrival of precip associated with a shortwave
trough late Sunday. Most of the day looks hot and mostly sunny
with highs in the upper 80s. PoPs increase into Monday as the
trough arrives. Monday should be the hottest day with L90s SE
of the Allegheny Front. Forecast uncertainty increases Tuesday
and Wednesday, as several ensemble members show showers/storms
lingering as the front slows down, while much of the
deterministic guidance has drier air pushing in.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Skies are mainly clear this evening over Central PA and VFR
conditions are expected through the first half of today. Patchy
valley fog will formed overnight, but the coverage of fog is
sparse and will quickly dissipate into the early morning.

The main focus through the 12Z Friday will be a shortwave that
will traverse the region and bring isolated showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the area this afternoon. The
surface cold front associated with this upper level shortwave
will move in during the afternoon and will trigger a few
thunderstorms over eastern PA. This cold front will be largely
moisture starved; however, given the instability in the eastern
portion of PA it is possible isolated to scattered storms may
cause some impacts. These thunderstorms will have the best
chance of impacting IPT, MDT, and LNS, while areas farther to
the west likely remain dry. Confidence still remains low on
development and coverage of afternoon convection.

Outlook...

Fri-Sun...AM fog possible; otherwise VFR.

Mon-Tue...Thunderstorms developing in the afternoon.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Dangelo
LONG TERM...Colbert
AVIATION...Bauco/Bowen

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