Showers and Thunderstorms Persist of Florida; Unsettled Pattern Returns to Hawaii

A cold front lingering over Florida will continue to bring showers and thunderstorms to the state over the next couple of days. Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are possible along the east coast of Florida. A Kona Low is expected to bring strong winds, widespread heavy rainfall, and flooding concerns to the Hawaiian Islands Tuesday through the weekend. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

281
FXUS61 KCTP 070136
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
936 PM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Lowered dewpoints on Tues and Wed
* Increased wind gusts on Tues
* Coordinated with WFOs PHI and LWX and bumped up the start of
the growing season by several days due to the numerous days of
well above normal temps the past few weeks, resulting in a
Freeze Watch being posted for late Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning across Scent PA and the Lower Susq Valley.
Issued a Public Info Statement this morning with the details.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light snow likely across the northern tier tonight into
Tuesday morning with a coating to one inch in some spots.

2) Much colder for the first half of the week but warming up
again at week`s end.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light snow likely across the northern tier
tonight into Tuesday morning with a coating to one inch in some
spots.

The moisture-challenged system moving in across the Great Lakes
will generate numerous SHSN over the northern half of the state
and in the Laurel Highlands.

Meager CAPE over the NW could generate a briefly heavier spot
of precip/snow here and there. HREF members, GFS, and NAM all
generate a heavier shower or two in the Laurels and perhaps into
the central mountains. Temps should be a little milder than in
the northern tier, but the very highest hill tops may get a thin
coating tonight/Tues AM. Overall, the accums could be an inch
or so in the nrn tier and perhaps a dusting in the Laurels and
Alleghenies.

---------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Much colder the first half of the week but
warming up again at week`s end.

Tuesday morning mins will be cold enough for frost over all of
the area, but wind of 10-15 G 20-25KT and sub-30F dewpoints
should keep that from happening.

Still, a great portion of the CWA (not in the early stages of
the newly adjusted growing season) will be <=32F Tues AM. Tues
will be the coldest "Day" in this current cold spell as the
cold front associated with the system passes before or around
sunrise and a secondary front should move across during the
daytime. Wind will also pick up as the dry, heavy air moves in.
Model profiles show that we may be able to mix down gusts into
the 30s on the ridge tops and in the downslope of the Lower
Susq, and 20s elsewhere. RH will dip to 30-40pct.

Wednesday morning will be the coldest this week due to the
center of the sfc high being right overhead. Morning mins will
be well below freezing everywhere. Even the Lower Susq will get
into the L-M20s. The start of the growing season (date of the
normal last spring freeze) is not until the 11th there. So, we
probably won`t be issuing frost/freeze products for that
morning. But, collaboration with our neighboring WFOs will weigh
heavily on that decision.

It then warms up to about 5F below normal maxes on Wed as the
sfc high slides to our E and S and the wind turns to come out of
the S and we should be sunny. Dry air will still be in place,
and the RH will certainly drop into the 20s for everyone as the
temperatures warm but dewpoints don`t keep up. Thursday looks
much warmer, jumping 8-15F over Wed`s numbers (greatest gains
will be over the NW). PoPs stay pretty low as the sfc high
noses back into the Deep South. That will help to keep moisture
from the Gulf from getting to us. Temps rise another 10F on
Friday. Moisture makes it all the way around the periphery of
the high on Fri, and a front dropping in from Canada could make
a couple of SHRA in the NW. But, these may dry up before
reaching S of the Turnpike and I-81.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A brisk, early March-like weather pattern will occur over the
upcoming 36-48 hours with reinforcing surges of unseasonably
cold air.

This will promote an uptick in snow showers tonight into early
Tuesday before high pressure arrives later Tuesday into
Wednesday drying things out and bringing light wind. Expect
occasional drops in visibility to MVFR/IFR across the N/W. Brief
drops to LIFR possible at BFD in heavier snow showers. Cigs
will lower in the 6z-12z time frame particularly across the same
area (primarily MVFR, but a 30 pct chc of a few hours worth of
IFR cigs at JST and BFD).

Winds will be lightest before 05z but will pick up in intensity
thereafter in the wake of a cold front with NW wind gusts of
20-30 kts expected late tonight and much of the day on Tue.

Conditions will likely trend to VFR for all TAF sites by mid to
late afternoon Tuesday as high pressure builds in. This will
also result in the wind getting weaker toward 00z Wed.

Outlook...

Wed-Thu...VFR.

Fri...Chance of rain showers especially in the western
airspace.

Sat...Restrictions poss early N/W, then trending VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning
for PAZ036-057-059-063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Lambert/Colbert

Forecaster's
Discussion: