Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

593
FXUS61 KCTP 070319
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1019 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Stratiform snow has largely come to an end. Focus turns to
brief window for snow squalls on the Arctic front followed by
upslope snow in the Laurels, then the arrival of truly frigid
air by Sat AM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Brief window for heavier snow squalls in the Laurels around
midnight, followed by upslope snow continuing later into the
night as NW flow increases

2) Blustery and frigid with dangerous wind chills overnight
through Sunday morning; coldest weekend of winter

3) Moderating temperatures during the middle part of next week
may be accompanied by some mixed precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Brief window for heavier snow squalls in the
Laurels around midnight, followed by upslope snow continuing
later into the night as NW flow increases.

The line of snow squalls moving through Pittsburgh at 11 PM has
had a history of 1/4 mi vsby, thundersnow, and wind gusts in
excess of 40 kts. This line is located on the Arctic front
denoted by a wind shift and moderate T/Td gradient, although
the core of the truly frigid air is still way up in Canada.

Snow squalls will be possible mainly in Somerset Co, but
potentially clipping Cambria and Bedford counties, from approx
1030 PM through 1230 AM. Following the snow squalls, NW flow up
against the ridges of the Laurels will result in a few to
several hours of upslope snow. A higher- end winter weather
advisory remains in effect for Cambria and Somerset Counties
based on a combination of snow, wind, and blowing snow preceding
the extreme cold.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Blustery and frigid with dangerous wind chills
overnight through Sunday morning; coldest weekend of winter

Prepare for the coldest weekend of winter with wind chills 20 to
35 below zero expected early Saturday morning. We expanded the
extreme cold warning to include the remainder of the CWA. The
magnitude of the incoming arctic airmass is contextualized by
near-record to record low 850mb temps for this time of year.
Sounding climatology from KPIT also signals the coldest air
aloft at 850mb on record below -22C.

The lowest wind chills occur early Saturday morning, but remain
below zero through Saturday afternoon before dropping back to
double digits below zero Saturday night into early Sunday
morning.

A very tight pressure gradient across the region behind the
arctic front will support wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range
on Saturday. Strong pressure rises behind the front will lead to
gusts as high as 55 mph during the morning over the Laurel
Highlands. A Wind Advisory has been issued for most of Central
PA from 12AM through 10 PM Saturday. Winds remain gusty on
Sunday, but should stay below advisory strength.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Moderating temperatures during the middle part
of next week may be accompanied by some mixed precipitation

For those looking for a break in the persistent cold pattern,
incoming data continues to indicate a relative moderation in
temperatures (read: not as cold) during the Tue/Wed/Thu period
next week. However, this "warmup" may be accompanied by a bout
of mixed precipitation (rain/ice/snow) around midweek. Details
of the precip pattern remain very uncertain with higher confidence
in at least 1 or 2 days of near to slightly above normal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Arctic front approaching the region will allow -SHSN to
continue through 06Z then diminish except for the upslope
locations. Winds will increase and become gusty overnight.

Winds will ramp up even more on Saturday, and continue into
Sunday. Gusts to 35kts will be common in all locations through
the day from 300-310 direction. MVFR for the upslope areas
during the day with good VFR across the remainder of the state -
albeit windy and cold. Gusty winds will continue through the end
of this forecast period.

Outlook...

Sun...-SN/MVFR poss W. VFR E. Windy.

Mon-Tue...No sig wx.

Wed...Mixed precipitation possible.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record low max temperatures in jeopardy Saturday 2/7:

MDT 9 in 1895
IPT 10 in 1895
AOO 14 in 1967
BFD 9 in 1962
STC 8 in 1895

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Cold Warning from 1 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024-025-033-034-037-041-042-045-
046.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM EST Saturday for PAZ012-027-
028-036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EST Saturday for PAZ017>019-024>026-
033>035.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for PAZ024-033.
Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 10 AM EST Sunday
for PAZ026>028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066.
Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for PAZ057-059-
063-065-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin/Tyburski
CLIMATE...Steinbugl

Forecaster's
Discussion: