Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

925
FXUS61 KCTP 141034
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
534 AM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Expanded coverage of light snow/flurries early this morning
south of I-80 from the central ridge/valley region through
the middle and lower Susquehanna Valley
* Increased chances on the margin for wet snow accumulation late
Sunday and Sunday night over south central/southeast PA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) With a short-term predictability barrier still to be
resolved, there are increased chances for wet snow on the
margin late Sunday/Sunday night for south central/southeast PA

2) Welcomed warmup/thaw picks up some steam next week with an
active precip pattern Wednesday into the second-to-last weekend
of February

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: With a short-term predictability barrier still to
be resolved, there are increased chances for wet snow on the
margin late Sunday/Sunday night for south central/southeast PA

Recent trends in the model guidance (perhaps toward their AI
counterparts) shows a northward creep of the precipitation
shield associated with a strong southern stream shortwave and
associated surface low tracking from the Lower MS Valley to the
Outer Banks of NC. This is due to more interaction with a
stronger (run/run) northern stream shortwave coming into western
PA Sunday night. The eventual northern stream energy is coming
onshore the Pacific NW this morning, and once over land should
be better assimilated/initialized in subsequent short term and
hires model runs.

The other tricky aspects of the fcst include: relatively warm
boundary layer/road temps, precip rates/banding, onset timing,
elevation, and wet bulb effects. Without going to far into the
weeds, the key takeaway for this cycle is that odds have
increased on the margin for accumulating wet snowfall across
south central and particularly southeast PA Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night. The largest % chance increase is for areas
to the east of I-81 with WPC, RRFS, and NBM showing low to
moderate chances (30-50%) of snowfall totals >1 inch. The
official NDFD fcst initialized off of the 14/01Z NBM is likely a
bit too low at this point and would anticipate/front-run an
uptick in POPs and snow amounts to be more in the C-1" range
with the next cycle. There is the potential for additional
changes to this forecast in the next 12-24 hours so continue to
monitor especially for possible early Monday morning commute
impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Welcomed warmup/thaw picks up some steam next
week with an active precip pattern Wednesday into the second-to-
last weekend of February

Max/min temperatures over the next 7 days (2/14-2/20) are
forecast to be above the historical average for mid/late
February. To better contextualize the welcomed warmup/thaw: in
some areas, a 7-day run of positive temp departures from normal
has not happened since late September 2025!

Surface low over the western High Plains by Tuesday should track
eastward across the Dakotas/Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes
by Thursday. A broad area of stratiform precip is fcst to the
north and east of the low track near a low level baroclinic
zone or temperature gradient with cold air closer to the
Canadian border. There may be southward flex of strong arctic
high that sends a weak backdoor front into PA; but outside of
that scenario (increasing the odds for mixed precip especially
over northern PA) the dominant ptype from midweek into the
weekend looks like rain. An organized low pressure system is
expected to develop across the Midwest and Ohio Valley to close
out the work week. 12-24hr precip signals are maximized on
Wednesday and Friday next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Not a lot of change for the 12Z TAF package. The area of
light snow showers and flurries is nearly out of our area
as of 530 AM. Been adjusting the TAF for BFD some overnight.

Earlier discussion below.

Weak frontal system has pushed snow showers into northern
PA as of late evening. BFD came down below 2 miles, but now
up a bit. Models not quite as far south and east with this
as obs and radar show at the current time.

Anyway, looking at mainly VFR conditions today, away from
BFD.

Issue early on will be LLWS across the west.

Skies clear out later today, especially in areas that are
east of the mtns.

Lower clouds could linger in BFD into tonight.

Winds will weaken by sunset, as a weak high pressure builds
into the area.

Outlook...

Sun...Low clouds with scattered rain/snow mix over the area.

Mon...Low clouds linger much of the day. IFR expected NW.

Tue...Mainly VFR.

Wed...IFR -RA/cigs N, MVFR -RA/cigs elsewhere.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Martin

Forecaster's
Discussion: