Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

426
FXUS61 KCTP 112337
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
637 PM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Issued a Special Weather Statement for generally light snow
accumulations occurring over a 24 to 30 hour period across
the Northwest Mountains and Laurel Highlands.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Light upslope and lake enhanced snow showers will bring a few
inches of total snow accumulation (with locally as much as 4 or
5 inches along the summit of Laurel Ridge and Mount Davis in
Somerset County) late today through Thursday, mainly across
Warren and Mckean Counties and the Laurel Highlands.

2) Winter weather threat for Sun-Mon timeframe continues to
trend very slightly lower.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Light upslope and lake enhanced snow showers will
bring a few inches of total snow accumulation (with locally as
much as 4 or 5 inches along the summit of Laurel Ridge and Mount
Davis in Somerset County) late today through Thursday, mainly
across Warren and Mckean Counties and the Laurel Highlands.

Vertically growing/cooling boundary layer (with the upper half
of the cloud layer falling within the DGZ this evening through
Thursday) will initially compete/be offset by large scale
subsidence beneath the left entrance region of an upper level
jet.

Rather steady, albeit light snow will develop across primarily
the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands late this afternoon and
evening, continuing overnight. FLurries or more brief, isolated
snow showers will occur across the Ncent Mtns and Central Ridge
and Valley region, where a light coating to one half of an inch
is possible on the higher terrain near and just to the NW of the
I-99 and Route 220 corridors.

Based on this larger scale subsidence aloft and the lack of any
significant cross-haired signature within the cloud layer on
model time-height cross sections ala BUFKIT, we feel that the
snow will be slow to accumulate with rates under 1/2 inch per
hour.

Otherwise, the wind stays gusty for the rest of this afternoon
and tonight - likely generating some gusts up near 40KT on the
highest ridges (mainly the Allegheny Front/Babcock Mtn). We`ll
continue hold off on a wind advy at this point.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Winter weather threat for Sun-Mon timeframe
continues to trend very slightly lower.

A wave of low pressure is set to develop/deepen over the desert
SW and TX on Fri-night. The upper feature which is expected to
drive this development is still off the CA coast. Thus, upper
air sampling/initialization is not infused with any actual
sounding data. Old forecaster once told me to not trust anything
still over the Pacific at model runtime. Advances in model init
with sat data and better first-guesses have improved our long-
range forecasting since then (along with the extinction of the
dinosaurs). Yet, I can`t shake the large amount of doubt that
this upper low/trough brings to a forecast for >3000SM away and
~5 days in the future.

While many deterministic model solutions now take all of the
precip associated with the low to the south of PA, all of the
ensemble systems continue to keep a relatively high (50-60pct)
chc of measurable precip falling over PA sometime Sun into Mon.

Thus, the main message here is that a winter storm - or at
least a meager amount of light precip - remains possible.
Progged temps on Sat night and Sun morning look sub-freezing
over all of the forecast area as a high pressure/cold dome
moving down from the N/NE could make a wedge of CAD. However,
Sunday may hold a warming up to 35F N and 42F S. So, arrival
time of (any) precip would be key to (any) precip type. With so
much uncertainty, we`ve only shown a slight nudge downward in
PoPs Sun-Mon by about 10-15pct from the previous model cycle,
leaning toward the drier forecast that the deterministic model
solutions continue to trend toward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Northwest flow over the region continues to produce scattered
lake effect snow showers west of UNV. MVFR ceilings will persist
at BFD, JST, and AOO through the night, gradually expanding to
UNV as well. There is a low chance for MVFR ceilings to reach
IPT for a brief period later tonight, but with the LAMP showing
VFR conditions prevailing and the HREF only suggesting a 40-50%
chance of MVFR, we will keep VFR conditions in the TAF for now.

Snow showers increase in coverage through the night as a
shortwave rotates through the region. While MVFR conditions are
favored at BFD and JST, brief periods of IFR are possible in any
snow showers that move directly over the airfield.

Northwest winds sustained at 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 25 to
30 knots will remain likely through the night. There is low-end
potential for LLWS for airfields south of UNV as wind at 2000
feet will be around 40 knots, but with surface winds not
expected to remain above 10 knots, we will hold off on including
any mentions of wind shear.

Ceilings at AOO and UNV quickly rise to VFR during the morning,
while BFD and JST likely remain MVFR through the 00Z TAF period
with continuing snow showers. Some guidance does show the
potential for MVFR ceilings to redevelop at UNV and IPT during
the afternoon, but continued VFR appears to be the more likely
outcome

Outlook...

Fri-Sat...Improving conditions late week into the weekend

Sun-Mon...Monitoring potential for winter weather on Sunday and
Monday. Most likely restrictions are in southern PA at this
time.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Dangelo
AVIATION...Bauco

Forecaster's
Discussion: