Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

246
FXUS61 KCTP 241205
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
705 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for the Laurel
Highlands until 9 AM today; A Winter Weather Advisory has
been issued for tonight and Wednesday morning across the
Northern and Western Mountains of PA

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Breezy with an additional 1-2 inches of snow over the Laurel
Highlands this morning

2) Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation for tonight
into the Wednesday morning commute

3) Mixed/wintry precip likely Thursday into Thursday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Breezy with an additional 1-2 inches of snow
over the Laurel Highlands this morning.

Seasonably cold NWly/upslope flow will continue through the mid
morning hours today on the backside of mature Nor`Easter
blizzard.

Orographic lift with nearly orthogonal flow to the ridges of SW
PA will be focused within the DGZ zone that occupies most or all
of the several kft thick layer of clouds. This highly efficient
snow production machine with work with this otherwise limited
and shallow moisture to yield another 1 to 2 inches of fluffy
snow - with the greatest accums occurring on the ridges to the
west of RT 219.

Gusty winds 25-35 mph will produce some areas of blowing and
drifting snow before gradually subsiding later this morning.
Wind chills will be in the negative single digits over the
western and northern mtns early today.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Quick-hitting minor to plowable snow accumulation
Tuesday night into the Wednesday morning commute

A clipper system tracking from northern MN through MI into
Upstate NY will bring an initial short round of dynamically
driven, moderate snow during the first half of tonight as the
thermally indirect circulation cell and left exit region of a
140-150 kt jet max becomes focused over northern and western PA.

UVVEL associated with this feature will occur within a fairly
deep, svrl KFT that will fall right within the DGZ.

Much or all of the snow associated with this event will likely
fall within just a 4-6 hour period with lingering lighter
snow/flurries after 12Z Wed when the cloud deck become lower,
much more shallow and warmer well beneath the layer holding the
DGZ.

Limited lake and orographically enhanced snow showers will likely
continue to impact the western Allegheny Mtns Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday evening, and the recently issued Wint
Weather Advisory runs until 18Z Wed for that part of the CWA.

The best odds for plowable (>2") snowfall is along and
north/west of the I99/I80 corridor. The snow and slippery road
conditions would likely impact the Wednesday morning commute and
may result in travel/school delays.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Mixed/wintry precip likely Thursday into Thursday
night

Late week system tracking across the Mid-South toward the
Northeast U.S. has the potential to bring a broader area of
mixed/wintry precip Thursday-Thursday night.

Latest model guidance shows quite a bit of spread on the
location, type and amount of QPF associated with this feature,
so we`ll handle the details of this event gradually and in a
generalized manner until they become clearer.

A band of sleet or freezing rain is possible in the transition
zone between wet snow and plain rain. The best odds for
plowable snow are, as expected, across the northern tier (near
and north of I-80) and best chance for ice/rain from the PA
Turnpike south to the MD line.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Cold air aloft, shallow low-level moisture, and northwesterly
winds continue to fuel lake-effect/upslope snow showers across
KBFD and KJST this morning, with KUNV and KAOO occasionally
observing -SN as well. A resurgence in these snow showers
occurred around 10z, bringing a brief period of IFR visibilities
to KAOO. The NAM and RGEM have been handling the longevity of
these snow showers relatively well, and are depicting that these
snow showers will slowly taper off through 15z. Periods of MVFR/IFR
visibilities are occurring with these snow showers, which will
continue until these snow showers taper off later this morning
and early afternoon.

An MVFR cloud deck persists across much of the Northern Tier and
near the Alleghenies, which will raise and break up as the day
progresses. During the daytime, sunlight will help to raise
cloud ceilings and break up this deck of clouds via surface
heating and boundary layer mixing. VFR is likely across all
airports by the afternoon/evening, with KBFD and KJST expected
to improve more gradually due to their proximity to the lakes.

The forecast becomes complex between 00z and 12z as a clipper
system moves across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast,
bringing a round of snowfall along the leading edge of the
system. Model guidance suggests a period of MVFR to IFR
visibilities late tonight and through tomorrow morning for most
of our airports, with lower confidence in prevailing IFR across
KMDT and KLNS as the greatest lift looks to be north of those
airports.

Outlook...

Tue...MVFR-IFR restrictions possible in snow showers at
BFD/JST, largely VFR elsewhere.

Wed-Fri...Restrictions possible in rain/snow showers.

Sat...Mainly dry with VFR conditions possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
Wednesday for PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033.
Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM EST
Wednesday for PAZ006-012-037-041-042.
Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for PAZ024-
033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Steinbugl
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Steinbugl
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Steinbugl
AVIATION...Teare

Forecaster's
Discussion: