Hawaii and Guam Concerns; Record Warmth Spreads Eastward; Heavy Snow for Sierra-Nevada; Severe Weather for the Plains

A very active spring pattern with tropical concerns across the Pacific. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact Hawaii this weekend. Meanwhile we continue to monitor a developing typhoon that may affect Guam into early next week. For the Lower 48, heavy snow for mountains of California this weekend, increase threat for severe thunderstorms next week for the Plains and record warmth spreads east. Read More >

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

027
FXUS61 KCTP 111723
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
123 PM EDT Sat Apr 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Special Weather Statement for elevated risk of wildfire spread
in effect for southern counties this afternoon.
* Nudged temperatures down tonight with high pressure overhead,
calm winds, and dry air in place; widespread frost likely in
northern/eastern PA.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Abundant sunshine with diminishing winds & cloud-free skies
today; frost tonight north & east.

2) Warm up begins on Sunday and continues through the week;
near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

3) Unsettled weather expected next week, with several waves of
showers and thunderstorms especially in the north and west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Abundant sunshine with diminishing winds & cloud-free skies
today; frost tonight north & east.

High pressure is building in quickly this afternoon as evidenced
by a rapidly collapsing deck of stratocumulus this morning.
Gusty northwest winds will continue to taper off this afternoon
as heights rise and a boundary layer inversion strengthens.

Near or sub-30% RH values are possible across the Central and
South-Central Mtns today thanks to downslope flow off the
Alleghenies. A Special Weather Statement is in effect for
counties across the south that didn`t get much rain on Friday
night.

Overnight, high pressure moves across New York ushering in
continued clear skies, calm winds, and efficient radiational
cooling. Have issued a Frost Advisory for temperatures falling
below 36F in portions of the Mid and Lower Susquehanna Valley
where the growing season is active and confidence is highest in
frost formation. Locations along and north of I-80 should be
prepared for frost/freeze conditions tonight as well, despite
the growing season not officially being active yet (and thus no
Frost/Freeze products will be issued yet).

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Warm up begins on Sunday and continues through the week;
near-record warmth on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.

High pressure moves east and a warm/moist southwest flow will
develop Sunday afternoon. That influx of warm/moist air will
usher in a prolonged period of warmer-than-average temperatures
through the upcoming week.

On the large-scale, our ensemble prediction systems are in good
agreement that a mean upper-level trough will set up shop across
the western CONUS, with downstream upper ridging taking hold
from the Gulf states up the eastern seaboard. This will likely
set the stage for a notable warming trend, with daily highs
ranging from the 70s-mid 80s across central PA from Tuesday
onward.

The latest forecast brings near-record temperatures across the
region Wednesday morning through Friday morning, with lows
Thursday morning forecast to be warmer than our average highs
this time of year. Highs in the 70s and 80s will accompany lows
in the 50s and 60s. Dewpoints will start to approach the 60F
mark, so it will feel a bit humid but not overly uncomfortable.

----------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: Unsettled weather expected next week, with
several waves of showers and thunderstorms especially in the
north and west.

The storm track for next week will be centered across the Great
Lakes, with multiple waves of low pressure drifting into
Ontario. A frontal boundary will set up generally west to east
across New York and keep unsettled weather in place across
northwest PA in particular. A few shortwaves along the
prevailing trough could locally enhance the chance for severe
weather, which is well supported by some of the NCAR Ensemble
guidance that highlights an elevated severe threat Tuesday (NW),
Wednesday (all of PA) and Thursday (southeast PA).

Shower and storm chances will be highest in northwest PA.
Locations that have been wet lately will continue to see more
rain, while drought-stricken locations across the southeast will
see less rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF period with clear
skies today/tonight and increasing high clouds on Sunday. North-
northwest winds will be sustained around 10 knots with gusts of
15 to 20 knots possible. Gusts may approach 25 knots at MDT and
LNS. Winds will become lighter during the evening, decreasing
to less than 5 knots after sunset.

Clouds will increase on Sunday as temperatures begin to increase
from southwest to northeast. A few light showers are possible,
especially across the northern tier.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR anticipated.

Mon-Thu...VFR most of the time, but brief restrictions possible
in hit and miss showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the
north and west.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EDT Sunday for PAZ027-028-
049>052-056-057-059-066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Banghoff
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff
AVIATION...Banghoff/Bauco

Forecaster's
Discussion: