Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

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Renaming of Heat-related Watches & Warnings

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

429
FXUS61 KCTP 060001
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
801 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Warming trend into the first weekend of July with hot/humid
conditions expected to peak Sunday and Monday
* Isolated t-storms possible over the Allegheny/Laurel ridgetops
and near the Erie lake breeze Saturday afternoon and evening;
daily chances for showers and t-storms next week

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 PM THIS EVENING/...
By and large, another pleasant summer day is in store for today.
Temps will be a bit warmer than yesterday, with highs ranging
from the low 80s in the northern mountains to near 90 in the south
central valleys. PoPs are between 10 and 20 pct this afternoon
across the Allegheny/Laurel ridgetops and in the vicinity of the
Erie lake breeze boundary. Dewpoints will be getting well into
the 60s over far NW PA. Just a little kick needed at the sfc
(usually the lake breeze and/or terrain can do that) and CAPE
in the 500-1000 range should be enough for isolated, slow moving
showers and storms. A cap/warm layer around 12kft should prevent
any convection from becoming severe, and even keep lightning
flash rates on the low side.

&&

.SHORT TERM /9 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
With more moisture in places tonight, expect overnight lows to
be warmer than the past few nights, with temps expected to be in
the 60s early Sunday morning. The afternoon will be just a few
degrees warmer compared to Saturday, and still looks rain free
for now as CPA will be in the squeeze play subsidence zone
between approaching cold front to the west and TC Chantal near
the Carolina coast. Beneath the axis of the Upper Level Ridge
shifting east across the Commonwealth Sunday, mid level temps
will warm to around +10C, likely preventing any convection,
except for perhaps one or 2 isolated cells over the ridgetops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PoPs increase into Monday and Tuesday as a relatively weak
northern stream upper level trough arrives and taps into some
tropical moisture off the East Coast. With more moisture in
place, heat index values Monday afternoon will climb into the
90s for most valley locations south of the northern tier. It
will also be quite muggy overnight with lows in the mid 60s to
low 70s (NW to SE) Monday night.

Temps will fall a few degrees into Tue as showers and storms
stick around. A cold front will likely push through the area
during the day Tuesday. PoPs drop into the 20-40 pct range on
Wed as heights briefly rise over the area, but most model
guidance still shows enough instability for at least a few
isolated showers and storms. PoPs rise again Thursday with the
approach of another shortwave trough. The forecast for Friday
and the weekend is more uncertain, with some guidance suggesting
a break in the unsettled pattern, and others suggesting active
weather continues.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Still some high level clouds and a few Cu early this evening.
With fading heating, expect any lower clouds to crumble with dry
and VFR conds overnight. Highest chc of a shower or storm
remains vicinity of BFD for another hour or two, but no higher
than a 20 percent chance.

The airmass still rather dry for early July, so not much
chc of fog tonight.

Sunday a bit more in the higher dewpoints, but the chc
of a shower or storm look to still be very low.

Main chc for any showers and storms will be from late Monday
into Thursday as dewpoints increase and weak systems act on the
moisture.

Outlook...

Sun...VFR.

Mon-Thu...Potential for showers and thunderstorms, mainly
aftn/eve.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Colbert
NEAR TERM...Colbert/RXR
SHORT TERM...Colbert/RXR
LONG TERM...Lambert/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin/Gartner

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