Latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

Here is the latest Area Forecast Discussion for Central PA

This text statement is the latest forecast reasoning from the NWS in State College, PA

See the links at the bottom of the page for previous issuances/versions of the statement as well as our other text statements.

602
FXUS61 KCTP 260541
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1241 AM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Several bands of moderate to heavy snow to move across this
evening with heaviest snow across the north and west.
* Painted a distinct area of SNPL or all PL over the Lower Susq
Valley and southern tier counties further west through Bedford
Cty through early this evening with additional amounts only an
inch or two SE of a KHGR to KMDT and KMUI line.
* Collaborated with KCLE, KPBZ and KLWX to post an Extreme Cold
Watch for the Laurel Highlands and Clearfield County from 00Z
Tues through 18Z Tuesday.
* Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect through 1 PM Monday
with significant snowfall expected across all of central
Pennsylvania.
* Storm total snowfall increased to 12 to 16 inches for much of
Central and Northern PA, with locally up to 18-20 inches
across parts of the NW and NCENT Mtns, where yet another
shortwave aloft and left exit region of an associated jetlet will
focus snow there longer overnight.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A major, long duration winter storm will continue impact all
of central Pennsylvania bringing widespread travel impacts
across the Commonwealth through Monday morning.

2) Frigid temperatures and breezy-to-gusty winds will bring bitterly
cold wind chills in the wake of the winter storm and continue
throughout much of the upcoming week. Periods of snow showers
expected in this timeframe.

3) The cold lingers through the end of January into the first
few days of February.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: A major winter storm will continue to impact all
of central Pennsylvania, bringing widespread travel impacts
across the Commonwealth through Monday morning.

While the bulk of the area did get a break in the heavier snow,
the western most low center is resulting in several bands of
moderate to heavy snow as of mid evening, which will persist
over the next few hours. Not seeing reports of sleet with these
bands, as cooling at mid levels should continue this evening
and overnight.

Much of the area has had upwards of 8 to 12 inches of snow so
far, with several more inches expected across the north and
western areas of central PA overnight.

Earlier discussion below.

The entire depth of the Atmos will cool down to below 0C around
or shortly after 00Z as the LLJ and primary area of stronger
UVVEL races off to the NE, leaving periods of light snow through
the first half of the overnight in the SE and lingering 0.25 to
0.50" per hour snow across the Northern and Western Mtns as a
fast moving shortwave aloft and left exit region of its
associated jetlet moves quickly NE from the lower/middle Ohio
River Valley.

Wrap around snow showers across the NW Mtns and Laurel Highlands
in the wake of the low pressure system on Monday will continue
to allow for light snow before the system begins shifting north
and east of the region.

- Travel is expected to be hazardous through Monday morning,
we`re highlighting this in our WSW`s (no changes this cycle)
that travel will be "extremely difficult to impossible".
- Impacts are likely to continue into Monday morning with most
locations across central Pennsylvania likely to observe over
12" of snow. Accumulations will be less across southeastern
Pennsylvania; however, 8-10" of snowfall will still be
difficult for travel purposes.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Frigid temperatures and breezy-to-gusty winds
will bring bitterly cold wind chills in the wake of the winter
storm and continue throughout much of the upcoming week. Periods
of snow showers expected in this timeframe

Very high confidence in cold air settling into the region in
the wake of the aforementioned winter storm with 850mb
temperatures in the -15C to -20C range through Saturday. The
most recent NBM forecast outlines the Monday night into Tuesday
morning as one of the coldest period of the week. Digging into
the why for this; 850mb temperatures across the entire region
right around -20C, some potential clearing across the
southeastern half of the forecast area, breezy-to-gusty winds
with a fairly tight pressure gradient across central
Pennsylvania is more than supportive of widespread negative wind
chills across the region with widespread Cold Weather Advisory
and potentially Extreme Cold criteria being met across the
Laurel Highlands and all of north-central Pennsylvania. A very
similar setup will be in place Thursday night into Friday
morning, so we`re looking at these two nights for the most
potential for Extreme Cold mentions; however, a longer duration
of cold temperatures are expected with much of the area not
reaching above the freezing mark in the current forecast (runs
through Sunday 02/01). The main concern with pushing out any
products right now for Monday night would be timing with respect
to the incoming winter system. Want to make sure the cold
weather products do not get drowned out with the current high-
end Winter Storm Warning we have out, so will message it in the
Additional Details of the WSW & HWO and will likely issue
headlines where they would get more visibility.

Cyclonic flow aloft will allow for continued mentions for
upslope snow showers across the Laurels and NW Alleghenies
throughout the week. In terms of the favored lake effect regions
of northwestern Pennsylvania, current ice coverage on Lake Erie
outlines a fair amount of ice coverage which will limit
mentions with cold temperatures likely allowing for a shutoff
across the region. Any Lake Huron connections will still be fair
game at this point, so will need to keep monitoring potential
along that front but looks like until we get a solid warm up the
Lake Erie lake effect machine will be slowing down for the near
future.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Overall no warm up expected as we head into
early Feb. Also some risk of another coastal storm as we head
into Feb. Still a long ways out to call this one. The main thing
will be the cold weather over the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The steady snow has pulled well east of central PA as of 06z
Monday. However, some lingering -SHSN remain possible
overnight, especially across the western highlands (BFD/JST).

IFR cigs were observed at JST at 06z, with generally MVFR cigs
elsewhere. Expect similar condition to persist overnight, with
BFD possibly seeing cigs dip to IFR by daybreak.

A breezy W/NW wind will develop overnight and continue into the
daylight hours on Monday. Gusts of 20-25 kts are possible.

Cigs should improve to VFR southeast of the Allegheny Front
during the daylight hours on Monday. The Lower Susq Valley
(LNS/MDT) should see improvement first, with the central mtns
(IPT/UNV/AOO) eventually following suit.

Occasional -SHSN will persist into the daylight hours across
the western highlands, although cigs should slowly improve to
MVFR by late morning or early afternoon.

Outlook...

Tue-Fri...Lake effect and upslope snow showers remain possible
across N/W PA with restrictions possible; otherwise, chilly and
breezy.

&&

.CLIMATE...
The winter system impacting the central/eastern United States
will be bringing significant snowfall to all of central
Pennsylvania, with the bulk of snowfall expected to fall on
Sunday, January 25th. This section provides some context on the
magnitude of snowfall based on some records at the two long-
standing climate sites across central Pennsylvania; Harrisburg
International Airport (KMDT) and Williamsport Regional Airport
(KIPT) which have periods of records dating back to 1888 and
1895, respectively. The current forecast for Harrisburg does not
break the top five one-day snowfall records; however, forecast
does bring snowfall accumulations towards exceeding the record
snowfall for January 25th in Harrisburg. Current forecast for
Williamsport will be pushing close to the top five one-day
snowfall accumulations and will also be pushing close to the
snowfall record for January 25th.

New info...

As of 530 PM, the 9.2 inches of snow at Williamsport tied the
record of 9.2 inches set in 1958.

As of 530 PM, the 11.0 inches of snow at Harrisburg broke the
record of 5.4 inches set in 1988.

Earlier info...

Top 5 One Day Snowfall (All Year)
KMDT:
1. 26.4" on 01/23/2016
2. 24.0" on 02/11/1983
3. 20.3" on 03/13/1993
4. 19.8" on 01/07/1996
5. 19.7" on 01/16/1945

KIPT:
1. 23.0" on 02/22/1902
2. 20.0" on 02/19/1972
3. 19.6" on 01/13/1964
4. 18.3" on 03/14/2017
T5. 16.0" on 02/04/1926
T5. 16.0" on 02/14/1914

Record Snowfall for January 25th:
KMDT: 5.4" in 1988
KIPT: 9.2" in 1958

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066.
Extreme Cold Watch from this evening through Tuesday afternoon
for PAZ017-024-033.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Martin/NPB
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Martin/NPB
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Martin/NPB
AVIATION...Evanego/RXR
CLIMATE...Martin/NPB

Forecaster's
Discussion: