National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

 


000
FXUS62 KILM 270203
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1003 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEK...BRINGING TYPICAL LATE MAY HUMIDITY AND WARMTH. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM TUESDAY...THE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED
WEST OF FLORENCE QUICKLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. WITH A DECENT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT AND 1 OR 2 OF THESE COULD MOVE ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 67 TO 70
DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST AS MID LEVEL RIDGING
MAINTAINS ITS GRIP ON THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WE MAINTAIN THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON A DIURNAL BASIS WITH
THE BEST CHANCES INLAND. THE MET GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE A LITTLE
HIGHER REGARDING THE NUMERICAL NUMBERS BUT IT SEEMS DURING
CONVECTIVE SEASON THESE NUMBERS ARE QUITE VOLATILE FROM CYCLE TO
CYCLE. THE NAM MODEL ITSELF IF MORE BULLISH ON ACTIVITY FOR
WEDNESDAY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
KEEPING HUMIDITY LEVELS VERY SUMMER-LIKE. PATCHES OF MOISTURE WILL
TRAVEL WEST AS WAVES ORIGINATING FROM MID TO UPPER LOW SPINNING WAY
OUT IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION.
THESE SPIKES IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW THE EASTERLY RETURN
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND
MAY PRODUCE SOME INCREASED CLOUDS OR POSSIBLE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME IT LOOKS LIKE UPPER RIDGE WILL REGAIN
STRENGTH OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE EXPECT INCREASED SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT AND VERY SHALLOW...IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY OR JUST CLOUDS OVER
LOCAL WATERS AND ALIGNED WITH SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND EACH
DAY. ALSO...AS RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
SPILL OVER THE TOP INITIALLY. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME CIRRUS PASSING
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OVERALL EXPECT HOT AND HUMID
WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S MAINTAINING WARM OVERNIGHT
TEMPS AND DAY TIMES HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90. THE ONE SHORE
FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PUSHING WELL INLAND
AND THEREFORE EXPECT BEST CHC OF ANY SHOWERS TO DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND AND MAINLY IN THE WATERS OVER NIGHT. MAY SEE INCREASED SHWR
ACTIVITY COME NEXT WEEK AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH INCREASED
CONVERGENCE AND ENHANCED LEE SIDE TROUGHING.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS/LIGHT PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.

WITH GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS...INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF MVFR ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS VARYING CIG HEIGHTS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA. THOUGH MAIN AREA OF SHRA/TSRA WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF OUR
AREA TONIGHT...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY DOES DEPICT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP VCTS/VCSH
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS AREAS OF
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS TO QUIET DOWN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH A CHANCE FOR MVFR AS LOW CIGS AND
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG AFFECT THE AREA. ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUES...WITH WINDS INCREASING TO AOB 12 KTS BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ANTICIPATE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AGAIN...THOUGH GIVEN
LOWER CONFIDENCE AS TO EXACT TIMING...HAVE KEPT VCSH IN GOING TAF
ATTM.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...TYPICAL EARLY SUMMER PATTERN WITH MORNING FOG
POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND MAINLY AFTERNOON ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...WINDS CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO THE
SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN AROUND 3 FEET.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
SHORT LIVED AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS ONTO LAND.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS
WELL WITH BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURE. SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME UPTICK ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
VIA THE SEABREEZE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE STEADY STATE WITH 2-3
FEET WITH A FEW MEANDERING FOUR FOOTERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER
WATERS. WAVE SPECTRUM WILL BE MOSTLY SHORTER PERIOD WIND WAVES.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL PROVIDE PERSISTENT ON
SHORE WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PREDOMINANTLY EASTERLY FLOW
AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF HIGH. WITH A RATHER SLACK GRADIENT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO BE DOMINATED BY SLIGHTLY LONGER PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE AND NOTICEABLY WIND CHOP DUE TO
SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL MAINLY REMAIN 2 TO 4 FT IN
PERSISTENT EASTERLY PUSH AROUND ATLANTIC RIDGE...WITH UP TO 9 SEC
PERIODS.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SGL