National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

 


000
FXUS62 KILM 310715
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL
BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN TODAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER
THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GUIDANCE ILLUSTRATE
A DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME ADVECTING NORTH FROM THE EASTERN
GOMEX AND WESTERN ATLANTIC...WHERE THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA NOW
RESIDE. PRECIPITATION IS FINALLY FILLING IN THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE PUSHES NE UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AS IT LOOKS LIKELY THAT EVERY PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST SOME PRECIP TODAY...FEEL 100 POPS
ARE WARRANTED. HAVE RETAINED HEAVY RAIN WORDING FOR TODAY BASED ON
HIGH P/W CONTENT AND STRENGTH OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. LOOKING
AT EVENT TOTALS BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1 INCH...DEPENDING ON
LOCATION...WITH THE COASTAL COUNTIES BEING FAVORED FOR THE HIGHER
TOTALS BASED ON TRAJECTORY OF PRECIP SHIELD. PRECIP WILL LIFT FROM
SW TO NE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE EXITS AREA AND
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE GIVES US LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY...WELL BELOW
NORMAL DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION. LOWS TONIGHT
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHAT WAS ONCE LOOKING LIKE A RATHER UNSETTLED
PERIOD NOW SEEMS RATHER CONVECTION CHALLENGED AS THE STREAM OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. I HAVE WALKED BACK POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH THE BEST CHANCE FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING VIA A SHORTWAVE MOVING IN THE MEAN FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST. I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES UPWARD SLIGHTLY DUE TO THE
DRIER SCENARIO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...DECENT POPS WILL RESIDE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS VERY SLOWLY. THE TROUGH
WEAKENS FOR THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE WEAK SURFACE PATTERN FROM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO
ACQUIRE MORE DEFINITION IN THE FORM OF A WEDGE EVENT. IT APPEARS THE
BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SETUP POOLS TOWARD THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED FOR DEEP CONVECTION AT THIS
TIME AND MAY BE LIMITED TO JUST SHOWERS AND OR LIGHT RAIN AND
DRIZZLE. I ADJUSTED THE WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT ONLY ISOLATED
THUNDER ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A STRETCH. TEMPERATURES COOL A LITTLE
FOR THE WEEKEND COMPARED TO THE SEASONAL NORMALS WE SHOULD SEE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR/IFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS...LOWER
CIGS...AND AREAS OF FOG AFFECT THE AREA. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATER ON MONDAY.

LATEST RADAR DEPICTS SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OBSERVATIONS SEEING A MIXTURE OF VFR/MVFR
SHRA ACTIVITY...LOW CIGS AND AREAS OF FOG. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAINFALL INCREASING AS THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN INCREASINGLY BECOMES SATURATED. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT. AFTER DAYBREAK...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT OF CONDITIONS TO MVFR/AREAS OF VFR IN THE MORNING
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AOB 10 KTS WITH GUSTS
ALONG THE COAST UP TO 18 KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS. BY
AFTERNOON EXPECT VFR WITH LINGERING CLOUDS...TAPERING OFF OF -SHRA
ACTIVITY...AND SOUTHEAST WINDS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST
WILL GIVE US UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
INTERMITTENT SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS. A BIT BETTER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR
SC WATERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
APPROACHING THE WATERS WILL BE KICKING UP WINDS JUST ENOUGH TO
BUILD 4 TO 6 FT SEAS. ELSEWHERE SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3 TO 5 FT
RANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS ARE EXPECTED UNDER A VERY
WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. MOSTLY DICTATED BY THE SEA
BREEZE...EXPECT A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION MOST OF THE TIME WITH SPEEDS
OF TEN KNOTS OR LESS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT MAY
DEVELOP WITH THE LAND BREEZE EACH MORNING. SEAS WILL REFLECT THE
WEAK WIND FIELDS AND CONTINUE IN A 1-3 FOOT RANGE.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...EXCELLENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS...TEN KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR AMZ254-256.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL