National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

 


000
FXUS62 KILM 231215
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
815 AM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool
high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin
Friday afternoon through the weekend, as a low pressure system
slowly approaches from the west. This system will bring a chance
of rain late in the weekend, followed by another system Monday
into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 815 AM Thursday...Have cancelled the Freeze Warning as
temperatures are on the rise and now above freezing everywhere.
No other changes to the near term forecast. Relevant portion of
previous discussion from earlier this morning follows:

Today will be slightly warmer (less cold) than previously
though even if by 2-3 degrees. Even so, highs a few degrees
within 60 are still about a good 10 degrees below climatology.
Our light NE to E winds will veer to SE as the day wears on as
high pressure to our north progresses eastward. This trend lasts
into tonight and the addition of moisture may lead to some fog
along coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Primary headline this period is a notable
warming trend after a nippy start daybreak Friday. High
pressure migrating offshore Friday and strong low pressure
churning toward the central Mississippi valley will bring a
robust warm air advection regime, with low to mid 70s looking
like a good bet both Friday and Saturday. This will bring low
temperatures Saturday morning 12-16 degrees milder compared to
Friday morning. Minimal or no rain chances this period however
until after Saturday. The atmospheric column will remain quite
dry above 800 millibars both days, with periods of cumulus in
the cards Friday afternoon through Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...Rain chances are best inland Sunday as a
low pressure system swerves north, well west of the coast. A
warm and humid day Sunday all areas, well into the 70s, if not a
few 80s depending on cloud cover extent, even ceiling breaks
could warm the air quickly. A rumble of thunder is possible and
favored inland. A few low pressure centers beneath short-waves
will sustain low end rain chances Monday into Tuesday. QPF looks
quite low but hopefully enough to knock a little pollen out of
the sky and pines. No cold air on the horizon and temperatures
overall appear to run above normal through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 12Z...VFR all terminals through the TAF valid period with
cool and dry high pressure overhead.

Extended outlook...Fog possible Thursday night. Otherwise VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 815 AM Thursday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
with no changes. Latest obs show seas in the 5 to 6 ft range
with NE winds of around 20 kts. Previous discussion from earlier
this morning follows:

Though winds have tapered inland they continue to be breezy
along the beaches and still downright howling over the coastal
waters. As such a Small Craft advisory continues. The gradient
will abate today albeit quite gradually and conditions will
remain unfit for most recreational mariners for most of the day.
In fact with conditions so slow to abate and seas lagging as
they always do we may need a short-lived SCEC headline after the
advisory ends this evening into early tonight. But later
tonight conditions will fall below any thresholds, though some
choppy 4 or occasional 5 ft seas will linger and many mariners
may want to put off boating until the much quieter short term.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...A veering wind trend this period but
manageable as high pressure slips offshore. Winds Friday and
Saturday 15 KT or less, except a few higher gusts near shore in
the afternoon as the sea breeze gears up. seas 3 feet or less
mainly in SE waves every 6-7 seconds. No TSTMS expected this
period nor obstructions to visibility. A light to moderate chop
for both days.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Thursday...No advisories are expected Sunday and
Monday but seas may approach 4 feet since southerly flow remains
persistent. Isolated marine showers can be expected this period
but TSTMS if any would be confined to the Gulf Stream if at all.
Seas 3-4 feet mainly in SE waves between 7-10 second intervals
with a moderate chop. The warm land temps will support a sea
breeze so expected gusts near 20 KT near shore in the afternoon
hours.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250-
252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/MBB
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...REK
MARINE...MJC/REK/MBB