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Overview

During the day on Monday, July 22nd, an potent upper level trough (for July) was moving east from the Great Lakes region toward the Mid-Atlantic. The flow (at 500 mb) was out of the SW at ~30 knots. At the surface, low pressure was tracking just to our north as the associated cold front was slowly approaching the region from the NW. The cold front was still well NW of our CWA by 8 PM Monday. Temperatures had warmed up to 95-100°F by late Monday afternoon. Given the strong surface heating, the pre-storm environment (5 PM on 7/22) was characterized by a fairly large amount instability and steep low-level lapse rates. In addition, the layers above 850mb were fairly dry. This steep low-level lapse rates and relatively dry mid levels lead to a pre-storm environmental Downward/Downdraft CAPE (DCAPE) value of nearly 1500 J/kg. Generally, DCAPEs of greater than 1000 J/kg signify a decent potential for downdrafts to produce severe wind speeds. At 00z/8 PM on the evening of July 22nd, a few (discrete) thunderstorms were ongoing from Mecklenburg County to interior NE NC. There were numerous reports of wind damage across south-central/southeast VA as these storms tracked to the northeast.

By 10 PM, the storms were right around the NWS Office in Wakefield. However, the storms started to re-strengthen by 11 PM as they approached the VA Northern Neck/Middle Peninsula (despite the continued loss of surface heating). This re-strengthening was at least in part due to the very warm (upper 80s) waters of the Chesapeake Bay and a strengthening southwesterly low-level (925mb) jet. Winds at 925 mb increased to 40 knots by 11 PM-midnight. The storms continued to strengthen as they moved over the Chesapeake Bay from point Lookout to Tangier Island. Perhaps the most impressive report of the night came at 11:30 PM when a wind gust of 81 MPH as measured at the Tangier Island (KTGI) AWOS! The storms went on to produce quite a bit of wind damage on the Lower Maryland Eastern Shore (including several reports in and around Ocean City) between 11:30 PM and 12:30 AM before moving out of the CWA.

See the image below for an overview of all the severe wind reports across the eastern United States from 7/22 through the early morning of 7/23.

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