National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce


On the morning of September 29th, a deep upper trough extended from the Hudson Bay all the way the the western Gulf coast. A potent shortwave was situated over the middle Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, strong low pressure was located over eastern Canada with the associated cold front extending south into the mountains of VA/NC and all the way down the Gulf of Mexico. The front would remain to the west of the AKQ CWA until ~6 PM. Ahead of the front, deep moisture was streaming into the area from the south (especially east of I-95). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continued throughout the day across eastern VA, NE NC, and the Lower Eastern Shore. Locally, some areas received 1-2" during the day on the 29th. However, no severe weather was observed during the day (low-level wind fields were relatively modest and instability was held in check due to warm mid-levels/cloud cover). From the evening of the 29th through the early morning on the 30th, the cold front crossed the region while a secondary area of low pressure deepened as it tracked NNE (along the front) through the Mid-Atlantic region. Ahead of the front, a south-southwesterly low-level jet strengthened to 40-50 knots from far SE VA to eastern NC. Combined with SSE winds and low-mid 70s dew points (enough for limited surface-based instability) ahead of the front in SE VA/NE NC, there was enough speed and directional shear for effective SRH values to climb to 100-250 m2/s2 by mid-late evening. A narrow line of shallow convection (w/ little to no thunder) traversed the area from W-E with the front during the evening. While wind gusts with the line were sub-severe, two brief EF-0 tornadoes were observed from 1030-1115 PM: one in Southampton County and another in Isle of Wight County. 


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