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***  EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE   ***

 

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix
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What's This?
Product Description Document

 

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Wakefield, VA forecast area.  This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE.  Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

 

 

Maryland  Beaches

Date                         Thu 05/28                               Fri 05/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk                      Low  Low  Low  Low                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    17   29   25   15   14   22   19   10    9   16   20   14   12   18   18
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    8    8    8    8    7    7    7    7    7    7    7
Chance Precip      40   30   20   10    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential    Low None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr  Clr  Clr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        69   66   66   65   65   67   70   68   65   64   60   59   59   64   66
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         W8   W8   W8  NW8   N8   N8  NE8   N8   N9  N10  N12  N10   N9   N5   S6
Wind Gust                                                                 15               


Date                    Sat 05/30           Sun 05/31           Mon 06/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     7   20   10   21    7   17   26   43   18   33   25   43
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    2    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      9    9    8    8    8    8    8    9    9   10   10    9
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        65   62   63   67   63   59   58   61   60   60   61   63
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        SW8 SW10 NW10  N12  NE9 NE10   N8   E9   S9   S9   S8  S10
Wind Gust                    15                                             

 
Accomack-Northampton  Beaches

Date                         Thu 05/28                               Fri 05/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk                      Low  Low  Low  Low                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    25   46   36   21   22   37   27   10   10   21   28   15   14   25   22
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    7    7    7    7    8    8    7    7    7    7    7
Chance Precip      50   50   20   10    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential    Low None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld Mcld Mcld  Cld Mcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr  Clr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        68   67   66   65   67   68   69   69   65   64   60   60   60   65   67
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         W9   W8   W9   W9   N8   N7  NE6  SE5   N7   N9  N12  N12   N9   N3   S6
Wind Gust                                                                                  


Date                    Sat 05/30           Sun 05/31           Mon 06/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     5   28   12   24    4   15    9   31    7   28   18   44
Surf Height (ft)    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3
Dom Period (s)      8    9    8    8    8    8    8    9    9    9    9    9
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   10   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        65   63   64   68   63   60   59   63   60   61   63   65
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        SW8 SW10  W10 NW10  NE9 NE12   N9   E9   S9   S9   S8  S10
Wind Gust                         15                                        

 
Virginia  Beach

Date                         Thu 05/28                               Fri 05/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk                      Low  Low  Low  Low                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     3    7    6    2    2    5    7    3    2    4    4    5    7   14   14
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      7    7    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8
Chance Precip      70   70   40   20   10    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential    Mod  Mod  Low None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        73   72   71   71   70   71   71   72   69   70   67   66   65   67   69
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SW12 SW12  W12  W10 NW10  N13  N12  NE8  NE7   N8  N12  N14  N14  N10  NE6
Wind Gust                         15   15                       13                         


Date                    Sat 05/30           Sun 05/31           Mon 06/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     4    7    2   10    5   15   17   31   20   30   22   30
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    4
Dom Period (s)      8    8    8    8    8    8    4    5    9   10    9    9
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    5    5    5    0    0   10   30   40
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        69   67   68   72   67   65   64   65   65   64   65   71
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)         S8  SW9  W10  N12 NE12 NE14 NE15 NE12 SE10  S10  S12 SE12
Wind Gust                                                                 17

 
Currituck  Beaches

Date                         Thu 05/28                               Fri 05/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk                      Low  Low  Low  Low                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     4    8    6    3    2    5    7    3    3    4    4    4    6   12   12
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8
Chance Precip      60   70   50   30   20   20    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential    Mod  Mod  Low None None  Low None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        73   71   72   71   70   71   71   71   69   70   67   66   66   67   69
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SW12 SW12 SW13  W12 NW10  N10  N10  NE8  NE5  NE7   N9  N14  N14  N12  NE7
Wind Gust                         17   15   16   17   13        12   14             17   13


Date                    Sat 05/30           Sun 05/31           Mon 06/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     5    9    4   10    5   13   16   36   28   39   31   37
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    4
Dom Period (s)      8    8    9    9    9    8    8    9    8    9    9    9
Chance Precip       0    0    5    5    5    5    5    5    0   10   30   40
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        68   68   68   71   67   65   64   65   65   65   66   70
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        SE5  SW7  SW8  N10  NE9 NE12 NE14 NE12   E8   S7   S9  SE9
Wind Gust               12   13   17   14        20   20   13   12   14   16