Winter/Spring Flood Outlook

Winter/Spring Flood Outlook 2024  

***FINAL OUTLOOK FOR 2024 SEASON***

This is the Twelfth Winter/Spring Flood Outlook for the 2024 season. This is the graphical format for the bi-weekly winter/spring ESF product as seen below. If you have any questions, concerns or feedback please email our Hydrology Program Manager James Sinko. Image opens in new tab expanded when clicked on.

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
1158 AM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR NORTHERN, CENTRAL
AND DOWNEAST MAINE...

This is the twelfth Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook for
2024, issued by the National Weather Service in Caribou, Maine.
This outlook is for Northern, Central, and Downeast Maine for the
two week period of April 26th through May 10th, 2024.

...This is the Final Issuance for the 2024 Season...

The potential for open water flooding is Below Normal across the
St. John, Fish, Aroostook and Allagash River Basins. The potential
for open water flooding is Normal across the remaining river
basins in Eastern and Northern Maine.

For the 2024 season the Winter/Spring Flood Outlook (ESF) will be
in graphical format on our website. If you have any questions,
comments or feedback from this 2024 season visit our website
www.weather.gov/car/springfloodoutlook


...CLIMATE GUIDANCE FROM THE NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER...

El Nino has continued to weaken although its influence is slowly
weakening across the area. Drier than normal pattern has been
prevailing since Mid Month with deeper moisture remaining
southwest of the region. Arctic Oscillation (AO) is positive
turning neutral. North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is neutral and
possibly turning negative. Pacific North American Pattern (PNA)
remains negative. The general pattern features troughing along the
West Coast of the United States with some ridging across the
Southeastern United States extending into the Northeast at times.
This favors above normal temperatures due to prevailing southwest
flow with in general a more inland low pressure track. Given the
remaining weak El Nino there will be chances for precipitation due
to the active subtropical jet.

The official National Weather Service 6 to 14 day Outlook for 1-9
May 2024 intially is above normal temperatures turning near normal
in the long term. Precipitation will start near normal but turning
slight below normal given the likely drier pattern continuing.

$$
Sinko