Multiple Rounds of Storms - Torrential Rainfall Possible

354
FLUS43 KJKL 211054
HWOJKL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
654 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

KYZ087-088-118-120-221200-
Bell-Harlan-Letcher-Pike-
654 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
for areas along the West Virginia and Virginia state lines.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
Friday, mainly in southeast Kentucky. Thunderstorms are possible
area wide Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106>117-119-
221200-
Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-
Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Elliott-Morgan-
Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-
Leslie-Martin-
654 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms on
Friday, mainly in southeast Kentucky. Thunderstorms are possible
area wide Saturday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

$$

VORST

805
FXUS63 KJKL 211835
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
235 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times through
Friday, mainly in southeast Kentucky during afternoon and
evening hours.

- A cold front will bring increased chances for storms Saturday
into Sunday.

- A noticeable cool-down is expected next week where temperatures
will be 10 to 15 degree below normal.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

Clouds have started to break up near the VA border and north of
the Mountain Parkway, but the process has been slow to get
underway. Have made adjustments to temperatures based on the
latest trends due to cloud patterns, and have also backed off
more on the POP due to weaker destabilization in some places in
southeast KY that had precip mentioned in the forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 952 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

Although there are some breaks in the clouds showing up, overall,
clouds remain socked in. This is slowing the temperatures rise and
could end up affecting afternoon highs. Have updated the forecast
for a slower decrease in clouds and slightly cooler max temps
today. It could also be more difficult to get convective precip,
and the POP has been lowered slightly where it was present in
southeast KY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

A cold front from yesterday is now southeast of the area, oriented
west to east from the Ozarks to the Mid-Atlantic. A surface high-
pressure system is dominating the weather across much of the Central
Plains and Midwest, including Kentucky. This is leading to mostly
clear skies, with the exception of pockets of overnight stratus
clouds. To the east, Hurricane Erin is tracking northwestward toward
North Carolinas Outer Banks. Locally in eastern Kentucky, post-
frontal high pressure is moving into the area, bringing mostly clear
skies, though low-level stratus overhead is keeping overnight
temperatures slightly warmer. Temperatures are still falling into
the mid to upper 60s, but where stratus clouds are present,
temperatures are remaining in the lower 70s.

Today, surface high pressure will be over the area, but the remnants
of Wednesdays surface low will continue to provide enough lift to
trigger a few afternoon thunderstorms, primarily for areas along the
West Virginia/Virginia state line. The rest of the region will
remain dry, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid-80s. Any
showers or storms that develop will dissipate overnight, giving way
to clearing skies and the potential for valley fog.

Friday will bring similar conditions, though highs will be warmer as
the surface high-pressure system tracks further to the southeast.
Along with the warmer temperatures, afternoon showers and storms are
forecast to develop with greater coverage than on Thursday. Again,
once the sun sets, any showers and storms will dissipate, leading to
clearing skies and the potential for valley fog.

The period will be highlighted by afternoon showers and storms with
increasing chances each day. Temperatures will remain above average,
with daytime highs in the mid to upper 80s and overnight lows in the
mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

The forecast period will begin with surface high pressure remaining
dominant over much of the Ohio Valley and eastern U.S. However, an
upper-level trough will begin to eject from western Canada toward
the northern Great Lakes throughout the day Saturday. This will
place the area in the warm sector ahead of the approaching cold
front, leading to highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Increasing
chances for showers and storms are expected Saturday afternoon and
evening, and these will continue through the overnight hours into
Sunday. The slow-moving front will keep precipitation chances in the
forecast through Sunday, before frontal passage occurs late Sunday
night into early Monday morning. QPFs are meager, with totals
ranging from around 0.25 inches in the Bluegrass region to 0.80
inches in the southeast.

Surface high pressure will build into the region for Monday, and CAA
behind the front will usher in a more fall-like weather pattern.
Starting Monday and continuing through the end of the period, dry
weather is expected, but the most significant change will be a
temperature drop of 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Highs on Monday
will only climb into the low to mid-70s. Overnight lows will fall
into the low to mid-50s, and some of the coldest valleys could even
see temperatures in the upper 40s on a clear night. Temperatures
will gradually start to return to warmer values by Wednesday but
will remain below normal.

The period will be highlighted by a slow-moving cold front over the
weekend, followed by an early introduction to more fall-like
weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2025

Conditions were largely MVFR (due to ceilings) at the start of the
period, with a few places also being VFR and IFR. Continued slow
improvement is expected this afternoon, with ceilings rising and
breaking up, giving way to generally VFR conditions by early
evening. Assuming clouds break up sufficiently, fog will develop
in valleys late tonight and grow in breadth and depth with time
until dawn, but probably have little or no impact at TAF sites.
The fog will bring localized IFR or worse conditions. Any fog
will dissipate on Friday morning, leaving VFR conditions to end
the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...HAL