Severe Weather Potential Update

891
FXUS63 KJKL 301930
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
330 PM EDT Fri May 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be possibilities for showers and/or thunderstorms at
times into the weekend as a cold front stalls over the area.

- Below normal temperatures, especially for highs, linger into the
weekend. High temperatures are forecast to climb above normal
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025

Though a surface cold front has moved east of eastern Kentucky as of
mid-afternoon, an energetic and deep upper trough/low remains over
the region and will continue to trigger showers and possibly a few
storms through the late afternoon or early evening, though the
severe weather threat ended with the cold frontal passage earlier
today.

Shower activity generally diminishes overall through the night,
though another energetic shortwave arrives overnight and may trigger
a relatively focused area of showers along a surface front diving
south from the Lower Great Lakes region. This cold front stalls over
the area Saturday as its orientation will align with the mean flow.
Weak conditional instability will exist with modest surface heating
to promote a Marginal Risk for severe storms over far eastern KY,
with damaging winds and large hail the severe threats.

This front likely lingers over our southwestern counties into
Saturday night, and may continue to produce at least isolated
showers through the night mainly southwest of the US Highway 421
corridor. Meanwhile, to the north of this cold front a much cooler
and drier air mass will settle over the northeastern half of the
forecast area, with lows likely to fall well into the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025

The period will begin with a deep, closed, stacked low pressure
system over southern Quebec, and an upper trough extending southward
over the eastern CONUS. A shortwave trough rotating around the large
scale trough is expected to be near AR early Sunday morning. Upper
ridging will be to the west, generally over the plains. A stalled
frontal boundary should be to our southwest, but exactly how far to
the southwest is in question. This regime will be bringing below
normal temperatures for much of the far eastern CONUS to finish the
weekend, including eastern KY. The shortwave trough may aid in
bringing showers to our southern counties on Sunday, if the frontal
boundary were to be relatively close. The GFS paints this scenario,
while the NAM and ECMWF are further southwest with the front and are
drier. Have only gone with slight chance POP for Sunday in our
southern counties.

The low over Quebec will weaken and a messy upper trough will
take shape over the western CONUS early in the week. This will
shift the upper level pattern eastward, with upper level ridging
forecast to approach our area from the west on Monday and pass
over on Tuesday. Surface high pressure over the region on Monday
should also leave to the east on Tuesday. The frontal boundary
currently to our west is now expected to dissolve in the latest
model runs. This scenario will allow for dry weather here both
Monday and Tuesday, with ample sunshine. Warming temperatures will
result, also aided by warm air advection once the surface high
slips to our east.

Models show a piece of the western upper trough lifting northeast as
a shortwave at midweek, supporting a surface low moving northeast
across the Midwest with a trailing cold front. Models are still not
in good agreement in how this transpires, but are overall slower
with the progress of the cold front toward our area. Based on this,
the forecast is now dry on Wednesday. After this, the forecast is
still rather broadbrushed due to a lack of confidence in the frontal
timing, with a model blend suggesting the most likely time for rain
to be Thursday night or Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2025

Cold front has just exited east of the area, but on the backside
under a deep upper level trough there will be scattered to
numerous showers in northwesterly flow, but there will also be
sufficient conditional instability for a few storms in the mid to
late afternoon. Overall, however, generally MVFR conditions will
generally improve to VFR through the afternoon into the evening
and overnight as overall coverage of showers diminishes. Winds
will begin the period behind the cold front from a west-
northwesterly direction with winds of 10 kts gusting as high as 20
kts, but then become more westerly by 00z this evening before
diminishing and becoming light out of the west-southwest.

Strong west-northwesterly flow aloft may be strong enough to
briefly warrant a mention of LLWS, especially if surface winds are
able to remain light and decoupled. Persistent fog will likely be
confined to the deeper river valleys and not impact the
terminals overnight tonight, but will bear close watching.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMC
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...CMC