Severe Weather Potential Update

950
FXUS63 KJKL 232355
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
Issued by National Weather Service Charleston WV
755 PM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat builds this week. Heat indices peaking in the 100 to 105
degree range are forecast for many locations through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025

Towering cumulus from earlier in the afternoon/evening has
dissipated with the loss of daytime heating, leaving mostly clear
skies for the overnight. With light winds and ample low-level
moisture, fog is likely to develop again in the valleys and
perhaps extend into more sheltered outlying rural areas as well.
Some pockets of locally dense fog cannot be ruled out.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 323 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025

The latest surface analysis from across the area shows surface
high pressure parked over much of the CONUS. This has allowed
mostly sunny skies, dry weather and hot temperatures to build
into eastern Kentucky. Temperatures early this afternoon have
already started to climb into the upper-80s with a few low-90
degree spots. Also, heat indices have climbed to the upper-90s to
low-100s.

Through the remainder of the day, temperatures will continue to
climb into the low to mid-90s with heat indices still ranging from
100 to 105 degrees. Due to this potential and the potential for
even warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday, the Heat Advisory
was expanded to include all of the JKL CWA. Along with the high
heat indices, the potential for pop-up thunderstorms will exist
this afternoon. While forecast soundings hint at higher CAPE
across the area, there`s very little shear which will limit
stronger storms. Nonetheless, an inverted-V sounding with high
DCAPE and high PWs could combine to bring gusty showers/storms if
they were to develop. If showers and storms do develop, they`ll
dissipate toward the late evening into the overnight. A quiet
overnight is expected as clearing skies are likely. However,
widespread valley fog is forecast to develop overnight but will
dissipate once sunrise occurs.

Tuesday brings another round of hot and steamy temperatures with
forecast highs being a few degrees warmer than that of Monday.
Also, valleys that see fog could stay insulted leading to little
micropockets of warmer temperatures across the area which will
lead to localized higher highs and higher heat indices. Shower and
storms chances will exist again tomorrow but with the center of
the high being closer to the area, the chances are pretty slim.
Otherwise, another hot and humid overnight is expected for Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning.

Overall the period will be highlighted by highs in the low to
mid-90s for today and mid to upper-90s for Tuesday. Heat indices
will remain in the 100 to 105 range. Overnight lows will be rather
mild as lows are forecast to only fall into the upper-60s to
lower-70s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025

Surface high pressure is expected to remain entrenched over the
area for the start of and through much of the entirety of the
forecast period. Wednesday afternoon will feature a chance for
afternoon showers and storms as the right entrance region of an
upper-level jetstreak passes across the Great Lakes. However, the
strong 590+ decameter ridge will remain in place through much of
the forecast period. Afternoon showers and storms will provide
some relief but the ridge doesn`t show any signs of breaking down
until height falls are seen Sunday going into Monday as a weak
upper-level trough tries to dive toward the CWA.

In summary, the forecast period will be highlighted by summertime
temperatures. Some near record breaking in the case of weaker JKL
high temperature records. Afternoon showers and storms will
provide some relief but highs will still range in the upper-80s to
lower-90s. Overnight lows will remain mild in the upper-60s to
lower-70s. A weak disturbance is progged to finally break the
ridge going into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT MON JUN 23 2025

VFR conditions will largely prevail for most of the overnight;
however, once radiation fog develops in the valleys, it may grow
deep enough to eventually expand across some of the TAF airfields.
This appears most favored to occur at JKL and SME, but cannot be
ruled out for a brief time at the remaining TAF terminals. Once
fog burns off after 11-12Z, terminals will return to VFR. Lastly,
winds will be light and variable under 5 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEERTSON
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...VORST
AVIATION...GEERTSON/VORST