Severe Weather Potential Update

303
FXUS63 KJKL 250825
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
425 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Noticeably less humid air prevails through mid-week, with below
normal morning low temperatures.

- Temperatures and humidity increase late Wednesday and into
Thursday ahead of the next cold front, leading to a potential
for a few thunderstorms.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 425 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows high pressure holding over the Ohio Valley
and this is controlling the weather for Kentucky again this
night. This has resulted in mostly clear skies, light to calm
winds, and good radiational cooling conditions. As such, areas of
fog developed in the river valleys and have become locally dense.
In addition, a small ridge to valley temperature difference is
playing out with readings ranging from the lower 50s in the most
sheltered spots to the low 60s on many hilltops. Meanwhile,
dewpoints were generally in the mid to upper 50s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, remain in good
agreement aloft through the short term portion of the forecast.
They all depict a 5h trough over eastern Canada while strong
ridging is centered over western Texas. This keeps eastern
Kentucky on the southwest edge of that northeast trough where a
steady stream of air runs from northwest to southeast above, at
mid-levels, through the period. As the trough fills and lifts off
further to the northeast by mid-week, another through will enter
the regional picture out of south central Canada - moving into
the Great Lakes. This trough will start to lower heights in the
Ohio Valley on Wednesday while allowing more mid-level energy to
head toward this part of the state. Given the relatively small
spread in the models` solutions aloft, unadjusted NBM data was
used for the bulk of the grids for this forecast package. However,
some enhancements were made to lower the afternoon dew points and
increase terrain differences at night given the drier air mass in
place. PoPs were left near zero through Wednesday morning.

Sensible weather for both days will feature near perfect late
summer conditions with comfortable afternoon humidity levels and
plenty of sunshine - once the early morning valley fog clears
out. Temperatures will be a bit warmer today and wednesday - near
normal for this time of year. At night, look for valley fog to
again develop and become locally dense. In addition, those valleys
will run a few degrees cooler than the ridge tops under mostly
clear skies - resulting in seasonably cool low temps.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were to include
the impacts of radiational cooling at night with more terrain
details and also to lower dewpoints and RH a bit each afternoon.
Again saw little opportunity to improve PoPs or QPF through
Wednesday evening even when CAMs based guidance were included.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026

The most current model data continues to suggest the increasing
influence of the southern upper-level ridge into Kentucky later
in the week and over the weekend. Ahead of this, though, we still
see the potential for a few showers and thunderstorms owing to a
cold front pressing through eastern Kentucky from Thursday into
Friday.

The previous long term discussion follows:

Thankfully the extended portion of the forecast seems to be fairly
tame. The only chances for rain will come towards the beginning of
the forecast period starting Wednesday night, peaking on Thursday,
and winding down again Thursday night. This will be the result of a
passing weak cold front, which is set to move though the CWA during
the day Thursday. However, don`t expect widespread coverage of
precipitation, or even a real impact on the temperature. Severe
potential is also quite low without strong forcing, though still
could see some rumbles of thunder. An upper level troughing pattern
will be in place aloft, but our position within the trough will be
that of NW flow, transporting cooler and drier air aloft into the
region from Canada. Besides the passing cold front, the remainder of
the time, high pressure should dominate at the surface. The result
will be generally pleasant weather, with highs in the mid 80s and
lows in the mid 60s. Things do warm up a bit towards the end of the
period, with upper 80s and lower 90s currently forecast, as the
surface high pressure begins to shift east allowing for return
southerly flow and WAA to take hold.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2026

Fog will affect most of the deeper valleys early this morning,
resulting in localized IFR or worse conditions. At this point, the
only TAF sites expected to potentially be affected is KSME and
possibly KSJS for a brief amount of time. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period along with light and
variable winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JMW/GREIF
AVIATION...HAL/GREIF