Severe Weather Potential Update

973
FXUS63 KJKL 011155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Persistent and breezy southwesterly winds will continue
advecting a warmer-than-average and seasonably moist air mass
into eastern Kentucky through the remainder of the work week.

- Expect several consecutive days with highs in the upper 70s to
mid 80s, and mild overnight temperatures bottoming in the 50s
and 60s.

- Expect daily chances for showers and storms until a stronger
cold front moves through the region later this weekend.

- Those showers and storms will produce some needed rainfall
across the forecast area.

- A few stronger storms may produce marginally severe hail and
gusty winds from late this morning through the afternoon.


&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 725 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026

Storms have developed just north of JKL this morning. These have
been healthy but not too strong or tall yet. Have updated the
forecast to address these a bit better in the grids as well as
including the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky ones. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the zones and SAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 510 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026

08Z sfc analysis shows a fairly persistent warm front north of the
Ohio River early this morning leaving eastern Kentucky in the
large warm sector of a slowly approaching area of low pressure
from the west. This has meant another very mild night for most of
us thanks to increasing clouds and southwest winds, though still
some valleys did manage to cool off an extra 10 degrees or so.
Specifically, temperatures currently range from some isolated low
to mid 50s in the eastern sheltered spots to the lower and mid 60s
on ridges and in the more open terrain. Meanwhile, amid those
south to southwest winds of 5 to 10 mph - with some higher gusts,
dewpoints have climbed into the mid 50s to lower 60s most places.
Still do expect some scattered showers and a potential t-storm or
two to develop towards dawn - probably coming out of central
Kentucky per the latest HRRR runs.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are holding in
good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict the presence of southwest mid-level
flow through the region between broad 5h troughing north and
temporarily faltering ridging to the southeast of Kentucky. Weak
disturbances will slip through the Ohio Valley today and tonight
while a shortwave trough is forming over the High Plains. The
approach of this system will server to pump the downstream ridge
on Thursday - lifting 5h heights over eastern Kentucky a bit. By
00Z Friday, more energy will seep towards the state from the
Plains even as the parent trough lifts more north than east as a
result of a deeper trough becoming dominant over the Yellowstone
area. The model solutions remain well aligned through the short
term portion of the forecast, bolstering the NBM as a good
starting point for the grids. The main adjustments made to this
initialization were to incorporate more in the way of details from
the latest higher resolution CAMs for PoPs and thunder chances
through Thursday evening.

Sensible weather features more late spring/early summer
temperatures for the area through the short term portion of the
forecast. Southwest flow has also allowed for even more moisture
into eastern Kentucky and this will help to support some
instability developing through the day. This, in turn should
enable convection, though the main boundary stays too far north
to have a direct influence. Even so, decent low level wind shear
and rather steep lapse rates may allow for some robust storms
through the afternoon with a potential for gusty winds and hail,
primarily over the northern half of the JKL CWA - closer to the
front and better upper support along and north of the Ohio River.
Both today and Thursday will see high temperatures in the 80s for
most of the area with the mid and upper level ridging likely
shutting down most of the convection locally tonight and Thursday,
though some isolated to scattered storms will be possible around
peak heating. For tonight, look for more in the way of mild
conditions, but still some pockets of cooler radiation induced
temperatures in sheltered spots amid partly cloudy skies. Again,
the surge in moisture will likely help to keep fire weather
conditions from becoming too much of a concern - despite most of
the area missing out on significant rain for the past week or so.

The changes to the NBM starting point primarily consisted of
including more details in the PoPs grids on account of the latest
CAMs guidance today through Thursday afternoon. In this moistened
environment, temperatures and dewpoints were kept mostly as
populated from the NBM.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026

At the open of the long term period two shortwaves,located in the
Pacific Northwest, and just east of the Rockies, will account for the
bulk of the active weather over CONUS in the upcoming week. Models
are in fairly good agreement of the Rockies shortwave progressing
northeast into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes regions
through Thursday. By Thursday evening, showers and thunderstorms
will likely occupy the skies over the Mississippi Valley. For Eastern
Kentucky, increasing clouds will likely be observed through Thursday
night getting towards Friday morning, as these showers and storms
get closer to the area. With light southerly winds and somewhat
clear skies prior to midnight, conditions look favorable for ridge-
valley splits in the eastern hollows and valleys. Lows generally
range from the upper 50s to low 60s in eastern valleys and hollows,
and mid to upper 60s in western valleys and ridge tops.

Friday, the cold front off to the west never progresses east into
our area. Instead, Eastern Kentucky remains in the warm sector with
consistent southwesterly flow bringing moist warm air into the
region. Temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s, with continued
chances of off and on showers and thunderstorms. As this unfolds the
other shortwave, previously in the Pacific Northwest, progresses
southeast into the Northern and Central High Plains before deepening
over the Northern Plains. Friday night, temperatures will be similar
to Thursday night, with a ridge-valley split in eastern hollows and
valleys dropping temperatures into the upper 50s, while western
valleys and ridge-tops cool into the low to mid 60s.

Heading into Saturday, as the second system strengthens, its a
trailing cold front extending from Illinois through the Mississippi
Valley, back into Arkansas and Texas will slowly work into the Ohio
and Tennessee valley through the day producing showers and
thunderstorms through the evening and overnight hours. Southwest
flow ahead of this cold front will continue to bring warm moist air
into the area leading to temperatures climbing into the low to mid
80s. Overnight, winds will become west to northwest ushering in
colder air. Lows temperatures in the mid to upper 40s will mark the
start of cooler and slightly below normal temperatures.

Models begin to vary on timing of the frontal passage as the
occluded low moves off into Quebec. Some models have it Saturday
night, other during the day Sunday. regardless, showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the frontal passage until east of the
area. temperatures Sunday through Tuesday generally remain in the
upper 50s to low 60s near the Bluegrass, and low to mid 60s further
south and east. At night, lows drop into the mid to upper 30s

On the back side of a departing trough and northerly flow, dew
points will drop off sharply Monday and Tuesday afternoon. While
winds remain light, RH`s will approach critical conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026

VFR conditions still prevailed at all TAF sites at the 12Z
issuance, this morning. Thunderstorms have developed just about
on schedule and could impact the northern TAF sites over the next
hour or so. Look for this threat to continue through the morning
and into the afternoon when the potential is maximized. Any
convection will pose a risk for brief MVFR, or worse, conditions.
Strong and erratic wind gusts are also possible near convection,
especially after 18Z. Otherwise, winds will be from the southwest
at 5 to 10 kt with occasional gusts at up to 20 kts through the
day with some slackening after sunset when some fairly weak LLWS
could occur for the first part of the night. Should the clouds
clear off enough tonight with the waning of instability some light
valley fog will be possible, but not likely to impact and of the
terminals.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...GINNICK
AVIATION...GREIF