Severe Weather Potential Update

201
FXUS63 KJKL 291944
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
344 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and dry weather is expected for the Labor Day weekend
with only a small chance of showers or a thunderstorms over
southeastern counties on Sunday and Monday.

- Look for mild, sunny days and cool nights through Labor Day,
with Saturday night likely being the coldest of the period.

- The dry spell ends heading into the middle of next week.
Scattered showers (30 to 50 percent chance) are possible
Tuesday, with higher rain chances following for Wednesday and
Thursday.

- Rainfall totals through Thursday are expected to remain under an
inch for most locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 304 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

Another pleasant late August afternoon is in progress over the
Eastern Kentucky Coalfields and surrounding regions. A deep ~558
dam low over Southern Quebec is maintaining troughing and dry
northwesterly flow across the Central Appalachians. Temperatures
range from the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations, except
in the mid 80s in the warmest spots near Lake Cumberland. A fairly
vigorous cumulus field has developed as a weak and poorly defined
cold front seeps southward through the area, producing a few
isolated sprinkles. However, limited moisture will preclude these
clouds from growing much deeper or producing any substantive
rainfall.

The current weather pattern will remain relatively unchanged over
the JKL forecast area through the short-term as the deep upper
low drifts ever so slowly toward New Brunswick by daybreak on
Sunday. In the meantime, the aforementioned cold front will
slowly sag south into the Tennessee Valley overnight. A
disturbance, rotating around the trough aloft, will bring an
uptick in high cloud cover tonight from the Lower Ohio Valley into
the Tennessee Valley and may initiate a weak wave of low pressure
along this frontal boundary Saturday morning, which will help
push the front more firmly to our southeast during the day. The
lack of moisture will once again result in this being a dry
system, except for the possibility of a few isolated sprinkles
along or adjacent to the KY-TN and KY-VA borders. Surface high
pressure behind the front over the Great Lakes will edge in from
the north on Saturday night, setting the stage for more efficient
radiative cooling than tonight.

In sensible terms, look for mostly to partly sunny skies with
just a few isolated sprinkles or virga through early evening while
temperatures hold near daily maximums. For tonight, the cumulus
field will dissipate early and variable high-level clouds will
stream in from the northwest. Temperatures are forecast to settle
back into the lower and middle 50s, though a few of the coldest
hollows could slip into the upper 40s. On Saturday, look for
mostly sunny skies once again and temperatures climbing into the
mid 70s to lower 80s. The only chances for a sprinkle will be
along and adjacent to the Virginia and Tennessee borders. Finally,
on Saturday night, mostly clear to partly cloudy skies are in
store with low temperatures ranging in the upper 40s to lower 50s
for most locations, but down into the mid 40s for those normally
coldest hollows.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 239 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2025

Upper level ridging will push into the Great Lakes Region on
Sunday, allowing high pressure to move into eastern Kentucky.
Temperatures will warm a degree or two with highs on Sunday in the
upper 70s to lower 80s. The aforementioned ridge will remain
situated over the region through Monday.

The upper level pattern will change on Tuesday as a shortwave
forms on the southern periphery of the aforementioned ridge. This
disturbance will provide enough forcing to kick off showers and a
few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon. A widespread, wetting rain is
not anticipated at this time as forecast rainfall totals remain
less than a half of an inch.

Elsewhere on Tuesday, a distinct upper level trough will dive
south from Manitoba and Ontario. This system will phase with the
aforementioned shortwave on Wednesday, placing the majority of
CONUS in a troughing pattern. Rain chances maximize Wednesday
as precipitable water values climb to the 75th percentile. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with rainfall
amounts remaining less than an inch. Conditions will change late
Thursday into Friday as another strong cold front moves into
Eastern Kentucky. Below normal temperatures return by the end of
next week

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the duration of the
forecast period at the TAF sites. Prevailing winds remain light and
variable in this afternoon`s METAR observations, but occasional
gusts between 10 and 15 knots will be possible before sunset as a
weak boundary passes through. Winds across the area should generally
shift towards the northeast behind this boundary, but will likely
diminish to calm conditions at the TAF sites after sunset. Likewise,
this afternoon`s scattered cu field will diminish with the loss of
daytime heating and give way to a few high clouds streaming in
from the northwest.

Radiational valley fog is once again expected to bring visibility
reductions to the sheltered valleys overnight, but the fog is not
currently forecast to impact the TAF sites. Some guidance suggests
that a low stratus deck may develop near KSJS as flow shifts towards
the northeast overnight, but the dry air visible in the model
soundings should suppress this. Confidence is not high enough to
explicitly mention this in the 18z TAFs, but trends in upstream
moisture obs and the forward progression of the boundary will need
to be monitored accordingly.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...SCHLESSIGER
AVIATION...MARCUS