448
FXUS63 KJKL 280600 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 AM EDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active weather pattern is now upon us, with multiple
chances for widespread showers and storms through Wednesday.

- At this time a strong line of storms is expected to approach the
I-75 corridor portions of I-64 early this morning with a
potential for severe wind gust and flooding rains. Additional
storms precede this main line.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible later this afternoon and
evening, as well as on Wednesday. These will bring some highly
beneficial rainfall to the region.

- Once the frontal boundary finally clears the area late this
week, cooler than normal temperatures are favored.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 105 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

Some bonus convection is pulsing through far eastern Kentucky in
the system`s warm sector with the main show still set to arrive
later in the early morning hours. Waning instability per the
diurnal cycle should weaken that larger area of storms as they
move in, but certainly individual cells and line segments will
need to be watched for possible warnings or statements. In
addition, with this precursor activity, some localized minor
flooding may become a concern depending on the amount of time any
subsequent heavier rains affect specific locations. For this
update have included the latest obs and trends for the T/Td/Sky
grids along with a retooling of the PoPs into dawn. These
adjustments have been sent to the NDFD and web servers along with
a freshening of the HWO, SAFs, and zones.

UPDATE Issued at 720 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026

Made some minor changes introducing some rain and storm chances
into Fleming, Rowan and Bath counties over the next few hours.
Also incorporated the latest observational data to recalculate
the diurnal curve for this evening. Forecast largely remains on
track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026

Present surface analysis depicts the region under the influence of
surface high pressure currently centered over eastern Virginia. Its
presence remains significant, as much of the eastern CONUS continues
to experience mostly clear skies. To the west of the CWA, a surface
low is ejecting east-northeast from Kansas into Missouri. While a
stationary boundary extends southeast from this low, surface
analysis indicates that its primary impacts remain well removed from
eastern Kentucky. Locally, high clouds from the Missouri system are
streaming overhead, though temperatures have successfully climbed
into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Through the remainder of the afternoon, the area is progged to
remain dry under the high pressure regime. Highs will top out in the
lower 80s as southerly winds begin to increase. While the CWA stays
dry for now, the Missouri surface low will lift northeast toward the
western Great Lakes through the late evening. As this occurs, the
trailing cold front will approach the CWA, bringing increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms overnight. HIRES CAMs suggest
that remnant convective activity will push eastward, driven by an
established cold pool. However, due to the overnight timing and
limited diurnal instability, severe potential remains isolated
within the broader line of storms.

Tuesday features an initial line of showers and storms early in the
day. By mid-morning, this activity should shift east, allowing for a
midday lull. As the weakening front arrives, chances for showers and
storms will increase again Tuesday afternoon. The risk for severe
weather on Tuesday is highly contingent on the atmospheres ability
to recover and destabilize following the morning convection. If
recovery occurs, strong to severe storms will be possible as the
front moves through during the afternoon and evening. This front is
expected to undergo frontolysis; however, an upper-level shortwave
perturbation moving out of the Four Corners will develop a surface
low along the trailing edge of the decaying boundary. As this
secondary wave moves through Tuesday night, widespread showers and
storms are expected through early Wednesday. Given the worked-over
nature of the atmosphere, this activity should remain largely garden
variety, though an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out.

Overall, the period will be characterized by multiple rounds of
showers and storms. While isolated severe weather is possible, the
intensity of each round depends heavily on atmospheric
destabilization. Temperatures will reach the 80s today but will be
slightly cooler Tuesday due to clouds and precipitation. Overnight
lows will remain mild as persistent cloud cover limits outgoing
longwave radiation and promotes surface insulation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT MON APR 27 2026

As the long term period opens on Wednesday, a shortwave rotating
along the base of the trough over the central CONUS will nudge a
deepening surface low to the northeast into the Ohio River region.
This will finally force the previously stalled cold front through
our area on Wednesday afternoon, triggering another round of
showers and thunderstorms. The environment preceding this cold
front will heavily depend on the evolution of Tuesdays convection;
however, current model consensus suggests that very moist low
levels will maintain cloud cover ahead of the cold front on
Wednesday. As a result, full destabilization appears unlikely at
this time. However, eastern Kentucky will be located beneath an
upper level jet streak, providing ample shear (EBWD of 35-45 kts)
for convective organization in the event that instability is high
enough for robust updraft development. Given this setup, the Storm
Prediction Center has introduced a Day 3 Marginal Risk (Level
1/5) for far eastern Kentucky, where the frontal passage is most
likely to coincide with peak diurnal instability. Machine learning
guidance remains rather unenthused about this severe threat, and
given questions regarding destabilization, this seems appropriate.
Regardless, Wednesday looks to bring another round of measurable
rain to much of the area; LREF guidance indicates at least a
quarter-inch of rain is likely in our easternmost counties (70-80%
chance), and this is without factoring in convection-allowing
models. This additional round of rainfall should help to put a
dent in our drought conditions before lingering showers exit the
forecast area overnight.

Following Wednesdays frontal passage, dry conditions should
prevail through Thursday. However, model guidance begins to
diverge by Friday afternoon into Saturday. The GFS shows a wave
rotating into our area, which would trigger widespread
precipitation; in contrast, the ECMWF is less aggressive with this
energy, keeping PoPs low for eastern Kentucky. To account for
this spread, the NBM has attempted to provide a middle ground of
low PoPs across the area on Friday into Saturday. However, actual
rain chances depend on the evolution of the upper air pattern,
which remains highly uncertain this far out. Regardless, more
tranquil weather is expected to return Sunday and persist
throughout the remainder of the period.

Beyond precipitation, Wednesdays frontal passage will also usher
in unseasonably cool weather for the remainder of the forecast
period. This change could prove problematic for any sensitive
vegetation, as this pattern supports several opportunities for
frost. The first period of concern will be on Thursday night, when
the combination of clear skies, light winds, and temperatures
falling into the 30s in sheltered hollows could lead to isolated
frost formation. Another low confidence frost threat exists on
Friday night; however, this remains highly dependent on the
progression of the aforementioned wave. In a more aggressive
solution, clouds cover and moisture would mitigate frost risk,
while a less aggressive solution would favor clearer and drier
weather that would once again enable frost formation in sheltered
hollows. Regardless, the highest chance for frost formation will
occur on Saturday night into Sunday morning. As high pressure
builds, clear skies and calm winds should allow temperatures to
plummet into the 30s, with decoupled valleys seeing the coolest
temperatures. Consequently, agricultural interests are advised to
remain weather aware throughout the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
ISSUED AT 200 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026

For the 06Z TAF issuance VFR was holding at most sites with JKL
the exception on account of a preliminary thunderstorm moving
through. Look for conditions to then deteriorate through the next
few hours as a band of strong to severe thunderstorms move into
and through the forecast area. Low-end VFR to MVFR conditions (and
a brief time of IFR can be anticipated through the first part of
the morning with the convection. The bulk of the precipitation
activity will wane after 12Z. Shower and storm chances are then
expected to increase again towards the evening and the end of the
period represented by a PROB30 in most TAFs. For the next few
hours there will be a potential for low level wind shear out of
the southwest at up to 45 kts. Otherwise, winds will be gusty
with the storms - generally from the south to southwest at 10 to
20 kts with higher gusts. Look for them to remain gusty once the
pcpn ends while shifting to the west - perhaps diminishing a bit
with sunset.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...VORST
LONG TERM...FAGAN/GEERTSON
AVIATION...GINNICK