Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Eastern Monmouth
Coastal Ocean
Coastal Atlantic
Atlantic Coastal Cape May
Delaware Beaches

Eastern Monmouth

Date                         Sun 08/06                               Mon 08/07
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    27   14   26   42   27   13   22   34   26   12   17   28   23   11   18
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      6    6    6    6    5    5    5    5    4    2    2    2    3    3    3
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   20   40   60   60   50   50
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld  Cld  Cld Mcld Pcld
Temperature        76   75   73   71   73   75   76   76   75   75   73   72   73   76   77
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        S 5  W 1  N 3  N 6 NE 7  E 6 SE 7SE 10  S 9  S 9  S 8  S 8SE 12 S 15 S 17
Wind Gust                                                  14                       21   23


Date                    Tue 08/08           Wed 08/09           Thu 08/10
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      2    4    4    4    4   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      80   70   20   50    5    5    0    5    0    0   10   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        76   74   75   80   78   73   72   81   80   73   73   79
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       S 14 S 12SW 12SW 14 W 16 W 17 W 16 W 14 W 12  W 9 SW 7 S 13
Wind Gust          20             21   24   26   25   20   17   14   12   20

Coastal Ocean

Date                         Sun 08/06                               Mon 08/07
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    44   30   40   53   43   26   31   44   38   24   27   41   40   31   38
Surf Height (ft)    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      8    8    8    8    8    8    8    8    6    4    4    4    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   20   30   50   40   40   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld  Cld Mcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        75   74   73   71   74   77   77   77   76   75   74   73   75   77   77
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        S 2  W 1 NW 2 NW 3  N 6  E 7 SE 9SE 10  S 8  S 8  S 8  S 8 S 12 S 15 S 17
Wind Gust                                                                 13   17   22   25


Date                    Tue 08/08           Wed 08/09           Thu 08/10
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    2   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      4    6    7    7    7   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      80   60   10   30    5    0    0    0    0    0   10   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        76   75   75   80   79   74   72   81   80   74   73   79
Heat Index                        84                                        
Wind (mph)       S 13 S 12SW 13SW 16 W 17 W 18 W 16 W 14 W 12 W 10 SW 9 S 14
Wind Gust          20   17   18   24   24   24   25   21   17   15   14   20

Coastal Atlantic

Date                         Sun 08/06                               Mon 08/07
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    34   17   32   48   32   14   21   39   29   13   18   37   32   21   29
Surf Height (ft)    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    2    2    2    2    3    2
Dom Period (s)      9    9    9    9    8    8    8    8    6    4    4    4    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   20   20   40   50   30   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        74   73   72   71   72   76   77   76   74   74   74   73   74   76   76
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SE 2  S 1  W 1 NW 1  N 2  E 6 SE 9 SE 9  S 7  S 7  S 8  S 8 S 10 S 14 S 16
Wind Gust                                             14   12             13   16   21   24


Date                    Tue 08/08           Wed 08/09           Thu 08/10
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      4    6    7    7    7   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      80   60   10   30    5    0    0    0    0    5   10   20
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        75   74   75   79   79   74   71   80   78   73   74   79
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       S 13SW 10SW 12SW 16 W 16 W 18 W 16 W 14 W 12SW 10  S 9 S 14
Wind Gust          18   16   17   24   23   24   25   22   18   15   14   20

Atlantic Coastal Cape May

Date                         Sun 08/06                               Mon 08/07
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    34   16   27   47   29   13   18   38   29   12   15   35   31   17   22
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      8    8    8    8    7    7    7    7    5    3    3    3    4    4    4
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   20   20   40   50   30   40   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        74   73   72   71   72   76   77   76   74   73   73   73   74   76   77
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SE 3 SE 1 SW 2  W 1 NW 1 SE 6 SE 9SE 10  S 7  S 7  S 8  S 9 S 10 S 14 S 16
Wind Gust                                                  12                  15   20   22


Date                    Tue 08/08           Wed 08/09           Thu 08/10
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      3    5    6    6    6   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      70   50   10   20    5    0    0    0    0    5   10   20
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        75   74   75   80   79   73   72   80   78   73   73   79
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       S 12SW 10SW 12SW 14 W 16 W 18 W 16 W 14 W 12 SW 9  S 9 S 14
Wind Gust          17   15   17   21   22   24   25   21        15   15   20

Delaware Beaches

Date                         Sun 08/06                               Mon 08/07
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    22   11   14   24   19    9   10   19   17    8    8   17   16   10    8
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      8    8    8    8    7    7    7    7    5    3    3    3    4    4    4
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5   10   20   40   40   30   40   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        74   73   72   71   72   77   77   77   75   75   74   74   75   78   79
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        E 3 SE 1 SW 2  W 2  W 2 SE 6SE 10SE 10  S 8  S 8  S 8  S 9  S 9 S 13 S 15
Wind Gust                                             15        13   13        15   18   22


Date                    Tue 08/08           Wed 08/09           Thu 08/10
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      3    5    6    6    6   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      60   50   10   20    5    0    0    0    5    5   10   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        77   76   76   82   80   74   73   80   79   74   74   81
Heat Index                        87                                        
Wind (mph)       S 12SW 10SW 12SW 16 W 15 W 17 W 15 W 12SW 10SW 10  S 9 S 14
Wind Gust               16   17   23   21   22   22   17   15   15   15   20