National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Coastal and Marine Impacts from Imelda and Humberto as Both Track Away from the Southeast U.S.

Swells and high surf from both Imelda and Humberto are expected to bring dangerous marine and rip current conditions to the east coast of Florida and Georgia today, spreading north along much of the east coast of the U.S. this week. Heavy rainfall north and west of Imelda falling across coastal Florida and Georgia into the Carolinas could cause isolated flash and urban flooding through Tuesday. Read More >

Philadelphia/Mt Holly

Weather Forecast Office

Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

Weather.gov > Philadelphia/Mt Holly > Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

 

***  EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE   ***

 

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix
Experimental - Leave Feedback
What's This?
Product Description Document

 

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area.  This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE.  Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

 

 

Eastern  Monmouth 

Date               Mon 09/29                          Tue 09/30
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High High High High High High High High     
Rip Probability    38   38   29   32   51   62   57   55   65   70   62   55   64   76
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld
Temperature        69   69   72   72   71   70   69   68   67   67   72   74   74   71
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 8 NE 9 NE 9  E 7  E 6  E 3 SE 2 NW 2  N 3  N 6  N 7 NE 8NE 12NE 14
Wind Gust          13   15   14   12                                 12   14   17   20


Date               Wed 10/01           Thu 10/02           Fri 10/03           Sat 10/04
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    81   93   86   92   89   94   88   90   85   83   77   72   85   81   MM
Surf Height (ft)    3    3    3    2    2    3    3    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    0    0    0    0    0    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr  Clr Mclr
Temperature        66   60   64   63   59   57   61   61   59   58   64   63   59   58   69
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)      NE 21NE 22NE 17NE 16NE 18NE 18NE 14 E 10  E 6  N 6 SE 6  S 6  W 7  W 7  S 6
Wind Gust          29   29   24   23   25   24   21   16                       12

 
Coastal  Ocean 

Date               Mon 09/29                          Tue 09/30
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High High High High High High High High     
Rip Probability    41   41   39   43   54   61   64   66   70   71   70   69   71   73
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    5    5    5    5    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld
Temperature        68   70   73   72   72   70   70   69   68   68   72   73   73   71
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 8NE 12NE 13NE 12NE 10 NE 7  E 6 NE 5  N 7  N 8NE 12NE 13NE 17NE 18
Wind Gust                                                                      23   24


Date               Wed 10/01           Thu 10/02           Fri 10/03           Sat 10/04
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    73   74   73   74   73   74   72   72   71   69   68   66   71   71   MM
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    1    1    1    2    2
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    0    0    0    0    5    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        68   63   64   64   61   59   63   61   60   58   64   63   60   58   69
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)      NE 25NE 26NE 24NE 21NE 22NE 22NE 21NE 15  E 9 NE 9  E 9  S 8  W 8 NW 8  S 9
Wind Gust          31   33   31   26   28   28   26   20

 
Coastal  Atlantic 

Date               Mon 09/29                          Tue 09/30
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High High High High High High High High     
Rip Probability    45   41   29   32   50   60   60   63   66   68   66   64   66   68
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    2    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    5   10   10   10    5    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld
Temperature        68   69   72   72   71   70   70   69   68   68   71   72   72   70
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 6 NE 8NE 10NE 10 NE 9 NE 7 NE 6 NE 6 NE 7  N 8NE 10NE 13NE 17NE 17
Wind Gust               14   16   15   14                       13   15   18   24   24


Date               Wed 10/01           Thu 10/02           Fri 10/03           Sat 10/04
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    67   68   65   68   66   67   64   66   65   64   62   59   65   64   MM
Surf Height (ft)    3    3    3    3    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    2    2
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    0    0    0    0    5    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        68   64   64   63   61   60   62   61   60   58   64   62   60   58   68
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)      NE 23NE 24NE 23NE 18NE 18NE 18NE 20NE 15 NE 8 NE 8  E 9 SE 7  W 6 NW 7  S 8
Wind Gust          31   33   32   25   26   26   26   20        13

 
Atlantic  Coastal  Cape  May 

Date               Mon 09/29                          Tue 09/30
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High High High High High High High High     
Rip Probability    46   44   28   29   49   63   64   67   76   80   77   71   77   83
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    2    2    3    3    2
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    5   10   10   10   10   10    5    5    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld
Temperature        68   69   73   73   72   71   70   69   68   68   72   73   73   71
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 5 NE 7NE 10 E 10 NE 9 NE 7 NE 6 NE 6 NE 7 NE 9NE 10NE 12NE 16NE 17
Wind Gust               13   15   15   14   12             13   14   16   17   23   24


Date               Wed 10/01           Thu 10/02           Fri 10/03           Sat 10/04
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    81   85   80   84   81   83   80   80   80   77   75   70   78   75   MM
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    3    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    0    0    0    5    5    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        68   64   65   64   60   60   63   62   60   59   64   62   61   60   67
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)      NE 22NE 23NE 22NE 18NE 18NE 18NE 20NE 15 NE 8 NE 8  E 8 SE 6  W 6 NW 6  S 7
Wind Gust          31   33   31   26   26   26   26   21   14   14   13

 
Delaware  Beaches 

Date               Mon 09/29                          Tue 09/30
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High High High High High High High High     
Rip Probability    28   27   20   19   29   40   42   43   51   59   57   52   56   65
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    2
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       0    0    5   20   10   10   10   10   10    5    5    5    5    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mcld Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld
Temperature        68   70   73   73   72   72   71   71   70   70   72   72   73   71
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 3 NE 7 NE 9 E 10 NE 9 NE 8 NE 8 NE 8NE 10NE 12NE 14NE 14NE 18NE 21
Wind Gust                                             13                       24   26


Date               Wed 10/01           Thu 10/02           Fri 10/03           Sat 10/04
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    66   73   70   74   74   74   73   73   73   70   70   66   69   64   MM
Surf Height (ft)    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    2    2    1    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    0    0    0    5    5    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        69   66   66   65   63   62   64   64   62   62   65   63   61   61   67
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)      NE 25NE 26NE 25NE 23NE 22NE 22NE 22NE 17 E 10NE 10NE 10  E 7 NW 6 NW 7  E 7
Wind Gust          33   34   32   29   29             22   15

 
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