Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Eastern Monmouth
Coastal Ocean
Coastal Atlantic
Atlantic Coastal Cape May
Delaware Beaches

Eastern Monmouth

Date                         Thu 08/28                               Fri 08/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    27   15   31   44   25   11   19   34   27   14   23   32   24    9   10
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5   10   10   10   10   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        72   69   66   63   64   71   74   75   72   70   69   68   68   73   75
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       NW 9 NW 6 NW 5  W 3  W 2 SW 6  S 9 S 12 S 14SW 14SW 14SW 14SW 12SW 12SW 10
Wind Gust          14                            14   18   20   21   21   21   17        17


Date                    Sat 08/30           Sun 08/31           Mon 09/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    14    7   10    4    8    4   10    5   17    9   17    9
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10    5    5    5    5    5    0    5    0    5    0    5
TSTM Potential   None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        72   66   63   70   69   66   65   71   70   67   66   72
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        W 9  N 8 NW 7 NW 5 SW 6  N 6  N 7  E 6  S 6  W 3  N 7  E 8
Wind Gust          15   13   12                  12                       13

Coastal Ocean

Date                         Thu 08/28                               Fri 08/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    27   21   28   35   26   18   26   38   34   27   30   36   29   17   16
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5   10   10   10   10   20
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None  Low
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        72   69   66   64   65   72   75   74   72   72   71   70   71   74   76
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)      NW 10  W 8 NW 6  W 5  W 5  S 7 S 13 S 16 S 17 S 17SW 17SW 16SW 15SW 15SW 15
Wind Gust                                             21   22   22   22   22        20   21


Date                    Sat 08/30           Sun 08/31           Mon 09/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    16    8   10    5   12    9   12    8   18   14   18   16
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10    5    5    5    5    0    5    5    0    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld
Temperature        73   66   64   72   69   66   66   72   69   66   66   73
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       W 12 N 10 N 10 NE 7  S 7 NW 7  N 9 NE 9 SE 7  W 5  N 8 E 12
Wind Gust

Coastal Atlantic

Date                         Thu 08/28                               Fri 08/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    22   14   23   34   18    9   18   36   31   24   33   46   33   15   15
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5    5   10   10   10   10   10
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld
Temperature        72   69   65   64   66   72   74   73   72   72   71   71   71   74   76
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        W 9  W 6  W 5  W 3  W 3 SW 6 S 10 S 13 S 14 S 15SW 15SW 15SW 13SW 13SW 14
Wind Gust                                        16   20   21   21   22   21   18   18   20


Date                    Sat 08/30           Sun 08/31           Mon 09/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    18    8   10    3    9    6    9    3   12    8   15    8
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10    5    5    5    5    0    0    5    0    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld
Temperature        73   66   64   71   69   66   65   72   69   66   65   72
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        W 9  N 8  N 9 NE 6  S 6  N 6  N 8  E 9 SE 6  N 5  N 7 E 12
Wind Gust          14                                                12

Atlantic Coastal Cape May

Date                         Thu 08/28                               Fri 08/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    20   10   18   30   17    8   15   35   35   27   37   53   40   17   14
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5    5   10   10   10   10   10
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        72   69   67   66   67   73   74   73   73   72   71   70   71   74   76
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       NW 8  W 6  W 3  W 3  W 3 SW 6  S 9 S 12 S 15 S 15SW 15SW 14SW 13 W 12SW 10
Wind Gust          14                            14   18   21   22   23   22   18   17   16


Date                    Sat 08/30           Sun 08/31           Mon 09/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    18    8    9    3    7    4    8    3   11    7   15    8
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10    5    5    5    5    0    0    5    0    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld
Temperature        74   67   65   71   70   66   66   73   70   67   67   73
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        W 8  N 7  N 8  N 6 SW 5  N 5  N 8 NE 8 SE 6 NE 3 NE 7 E 10
Wind Gust          13   12   14                  13   13             12   15

Delaware Beaches

Date                         Thu 08/28                               Fri 08/29
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low                      Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    21   12   15   22   16   10   11   19   17   13   15   21   15    7    6
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5   10   10   10   10   10   10   10
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        73   69   67   65   67   73   74   74   73   72   71   69   70   74   77
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       NW 7 SW 5  W 5  W 5 SW 3  S 6  S 9 S 13 S 15 S 15 S 15SW 13SW 12 W 10 SW 9
Wind Gust                                                  20   20   21   18             14


Date                    Sat 08/30           Sun 08/31           Mon 09/01
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     7    3    8    4    8    4    9    7   13    9   16   15
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    0    5    5    5
TSTM Potential   None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld
Temperature        74   69   67   71   71   67   68   72   71   68   68   73
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        W 8  N 7  N 9  N 8  E 5  N 5 NE 9 NE 9  E 7 NE 5 NE 9 E 12
Wind Gust                    14

Briefing for Impacts from Snow and Rain Storm on Tuesday

Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

*** EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE ***

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *