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Heat Wave Expands to the East Coast; Flash Flooding Likely in the Central Plains into the Midwest; Severe Thunderstorms in the Northeast

Dangerous, prolonged heat is ongoing in the Mid-South to Mid-Mississippi Valley and heat expands into the Northeast for a brief period today. Widely scattered instances of flash flooding due to heavy rains are forecast from northeast Kansas to much of Indiana. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of New England, northern Mid-Atlantic, and North Dakota. Read More >

Philadelphia/Mt Holly

Weather Forecast Office

Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

Weather.gov > Philadelphia/Mt Holly > Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

 

***  EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE   ***

 

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix
Experimental - Leave Feedback
What's This?
Product Description Document

 

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area.  This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE.  Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

 

 

Eastern  Monmouth 

Date               Sat 07/26                          Sun 07/27
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability    17    4    9   42   46   16   15   44   48   17   10   27   31    7
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    5   10   10   20   20   50   50   70   70   30
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld
Temperature        76   77   78   77   77   76   76   75   74   76   77   77   78   77
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 9NE 13 E 12 E 12 SE 9 SE 9  S 8  S 8  S 7  S 6  S 7  S 9  S 8  S 6
Wind Gust          15   18   17        14        13                  12   14   13     


Date               Mon 07/28           Tue 07/29           Wed 07/30           Thu 07/31
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    13    7    8    5    6    6    4    6    4    6    2    7    4    7    3
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       5    5   10    5    5   10   10   10   10    5   10   20   30   40   50
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        76   76   81   80   78   78   85   84   80   80   83   82   78   76   78
Heat Index                   85                  94   91   85        90   87               
Wind (mph)        W 3  N 5 SE 5  S 6 SW 3  W 3  S 7 SW 6  W 6 NW 6  S 6  W 7  W 5 NW 6  E 7
Wind Gust           8                            12                  12   12             13

 
Coastal  Ocean 

Date               Sat 07/26                          Sun 07/27
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability    14    9   14   31   32   19   17   30   33   19   16   27   31   16
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    5   10   10   20   20   40   40   70   70   40
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld
Temperature        77   78   79   79   79   77   76   76   76   77   79   79   79   78
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 9NE 14NE 14 E 13 E 12 E 10 SE 9 SE 9  S 8  S 8  S 9 S 12 S 12 SW 8
Wind Gust          14   20   20                                                       


Date               Mon 07/28           Tue 07/29           Wed 07/30           Thu 07/31
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    15   10    9   11    9    8    6   11    7    7    4   10    6    8    7
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10    5   10    5    5   10   10    5    5    5   10   20   30   40   50
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        78   78   82   80   78   79   85   83   80   80   85   82   79   78   79
Heat Index                   88                  96   92   86   85   93   89               
Wind (mph)        W 6  N 7  E 8  S 7 SW 5  W 6 S 10 SW 9  W 8 NW 8  S 9 SW 9  W 7 NW 8NE 12
Wind Gust

 
Coastal  Atlantic 

Date               Sat 07/26                          Sun 07/27
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability    22    7    9   26   20    5    5   19   24    8    7   22   28    8
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       5    5    0    5    5   10   10   10   20   30   30   60   60   40
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld
Temperature        77   78   79   79   78   77   76   76   76   77   79   79   79   78
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 7NE 12NE 14 E 13 E 12  E 9 SE 8 SE 8  S 7  S 6  S 8 S 10SW 10 SW 7
Wind Gust          13   17                       13                       15          


Date               Mon 07/28           Tue 07/29           Wed 07/30           Thu 07/31
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    13    7    9    8    7    6    5   11    7    8    4   10    6   11    6
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10    5    5    0    5   10   10    5    5    5    5   20   20   40   50
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        77   78   81   79   78   79   85   83   80   80   85   81   78   78   80
Heat Index                   87                  94   91             92   87               
Wind (mph)        W 6  N 6  E 8  S 6 SW 3  W 5  S 8 SW 8 SW 7 NW 6  S 8  S 8 SW 6 NW 7NE 10
Wind Gust                                        13   13             13   13             15

 
Atlantic  Coastal  Cape  May 

Date               Sat 07/26                          Sun 07/27
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability    23    7    7   25   21    5    4   14   21    7    6   21   29    9
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       5    5    5    5    5   10    5    5   20   30   30   60   60   40
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld
Temperature        77   78   80   80   79   77   76   76   76   77   79   80   79   79
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N 7 NE 9NE 13 E 12 E 12  E 9 SE 8 SE 7  S 7  S 6  S 7 S 10  S 9  S 6
Wind Gust               15   18   17        14   13   12             12               


Date               Mon 07/28           Tue 07/29           Wed 07/30           Thu 07/31
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    12    7    8    7    5    5    4    8    6    9    3   10    6   12    5
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10   10    5    5    5   10   10    5    5    5    5   10   20   30   50
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        77   78   82   80   78   79   85   83   79   80   85   81   79   78   81
Heat Index                   88                  96   91        84   95   88             86
Wind (mph)        W 5  N 6 SE 6 SE 5 SW 3  W 3 SW 7 SW 7 SW 6  W 6  S 8  S 8 SW 6  W 6NE 10
Wind Gust                                        12   12                  13        12

 
Delaware  Beaches 

Date               Sat 07/26                          Sun 07/27
EDT 3hrly          05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability     8    3    4   14   17    7    5   11   17   11   10   21   31   18
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM    0
Chance Precip       5    0    5    5   10    5    5    5   10   20   20   50   50   40
TSTM Potential   None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        77   78   79   80   79   78   78   77   76   78   80   81   81   80
Heat Index                                                                87   88   85
Wind (mph)        N 6  N 8NE 12NE 12 E 12  E 9 SE 8 SE 7  S 7  S 6  S 8 S 10  S 9  S 6
Wind Gust               13                       13                                   


Date               Mon 07/28           Tue 07/29           Wed 07/30           Thu 07/31
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    16   13    9    8    4    5    2    5    2    4    2    4    2    4    2
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10   10   10    5    5   10   10    5    5    5    5   10   20   30   50
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        78   78   82   81   78   78   85   83   79   80   85   82   79   79   82
Heat Index                   89   87             95   93        85   96   90             88
Wind (mph)        W 5  N 6 NE 7 SE 5 SW 3  W 3  S 6  S 7 SW 6  W 6  S 8  S 7 SW 6 SW 6NE 10
Wind Gust                                                                 12

 
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