Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Eastern Monmouth
Coastal Ocean
Coastal Atlantic
Atlantic Coastal Cape May
Delaware Beaches

Eastern Monmouth

Date                         Thu 06/12                               Fri 06/13
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     8   15   34   27   11   15   28   15    4    7   22   20    6    6   17
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5   20   20    5    5    5    5   10
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        74   71   69   68   71   77   79   81   78   74   70   68   69   70   70
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 8  W 8  W 7 SW 7 SW 7  W 6  W 5  N 3 NE 5 NE 6  E 6 SE 8
Wind Gust                    13   13   13   13   14   14                                 14


Date                    Sat 06/14           Sun 06/15           Mon 06/16
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     4   15   10   26   15   30   31   37   31   27   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      30   40   40   50   50   40   40   50   40   40   40   50
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Pcld
Temperature        68   66   66   68   68   66   65   65   64   63   63   64
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       SE 7 SE 5  E 7  E 8 SE 8  E 8  E 9  E 9  E 8  E 7  E 9 E 10
Wind Gust                         15   14   13   14   16   13   12   14   16

Coastal Ocean

Date                         Thu 06/12                               Fri 06/13
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    20   22   32   28   19   20   29   25   15   15   23   21   12   12   24
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5   10   10    5    5    5    5   10
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mclr  Clr  Clr Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        73   70   68   67   70   76   78   78   74   72   70   68   68   70   70
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SW 9 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 SW 9SW 12SW 13 SW 9 SW 7  W 6 NE 6 NE 7  E 9 E 10
Wind Gust                                        17                                      15


Date                    Sat 06/14           Sun 06/15           Mon 06/16
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    13   18   17   27   24   29   31   32   31   24   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      30   40   40   40   50   40   30   40   40   50   40   40
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld  Cld Mcld  Cld Mcld
Temperature        68   66   67   70   69   67   66   66   65   64   64   65
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       SE 7 SE 6 SE 7 E 12  E 9 NE 8  E 9 E 12  E 9  E 8 E 10 E 13
Wind Gust                                             17

Coastal Atlantic

Date                         Thu 06/12                               Fri 06/13
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    15   24   43   35   19   25   40   28   12   16   35   31   14   13   30
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    2    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    5    0   10   10    5    5    5    5   10
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        71   69   68   67   71   76   77   76   73   71   70   68   69   71   71
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SW 8 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 7 SW 8SW 12SW 12 SW 9 SW 7 SW 6 NE 5 NE 6  E 8 E 10
Wind Gust                    12             13   17   17                            13   15


Date                    Sat 06/14           Sun 06/15           Mon 06/16
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     8   21   13   28   15   29   27   30   21   19   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    1    1    2    2    1    2    2    2    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      40   40   40   40   50   40   30   40   50   50   40   40
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld  Cld  Cld
Temperature        68   68   68   71   69   68   67   67   66   65   65   66
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       SE 6 SE 5 SE 6SE 10  E 8 NE 7  E 8 E 10  E 9  E 8  E 9 E 12
Wind Gust                         16             13   17             14   17

Atlantic Coastal Cape May

Date                         Thu 06/12                               Fri 06/13
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    14   21   43   35   18   22   39   26   10   14   35   31   13   12   27
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5    5    5    5    5   20
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        71   69   68   68   71   75   77   76   73   72   70   69   70   72   72
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        S 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6  S 8  S 9  S 7 SW 6 SW 5  S 3  E 5  E 7  E 9
Wind Gust          12   12   12                  14   15   13   12                  12   15


Date                    Sat 06/14           Sun 06/15           Mon 06/16
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     8   19   13   25   14   26   27   28   22   16   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      40   50   40   40   50   50   30   40   50   50   40   40
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld  Cld  Cld Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld  Cld  Cld
Temperature        69   68   69   73   70   68   68   69   67   66   66   68
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       SE 7 SE 5  S 6 SE 8  E 7 NE 6  E 7 E 10  E 8  E 7  E 8 E 10
Wind Gust          12             15   13        12   16   14   13   14   17

Delaware Beaches

Date                         Thu 06/12                               Fri 06/13
EDT 3hrly          20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     6    7   14   13    8    8   12   11    5    4    9    9    5    4    8
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5    5   10   10   20
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        74   72   70   70   72   78   79   79   77   74   72   71   72   74   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        S 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6 SW 6  S 9 S 10  S 8 SW 7 SW 6 SW 5 SE 5  E 6SE 10
Wind Gust                                             15                                   


Date                    Sat 06/14           Sun 06/15           Mon 06/16
EDT 6hrly          20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability     5    6    5    7    6    8   12   14   19   11   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      40   50   40   40   50   50   30   40   50   50   40   50
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mcld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld  Cld Mcld  Cld Mcld  Cld Mcld
Temperature        72   71   71   74   73   71   69   71   69   68   68   69
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)       SE 8  S 6  S 6 SE 9 SE 8  E 6  E 7 E 10  E 9  E 7  E 9 E 12
Wind Gust                         14                  15        12   14   17