National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Erin Strengthens to a Hurricane; Heavy Rainfall Possible in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, the Upper Midwest, South Texas

Hurricane Erin may bring isolated flash and urban flooding, landslides or mudslides, and possible tropical storm conditions to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands this weekend. Scattered thunderstorms and heavy rainfall may bring areas of flooding this weekend over the Upper Midwest. A tropical disturbance will bring locally heavy rain and mainly urban flash flooding to far southern Texas. Read More >

Philadelphia/Mt Holly

Weather Forecast Office

Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

Weather.gov > Philadelphia/Mt Holly > Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

 

***  EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE   ***

 

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix
Experimental - Leave Feedback
What's This?
Product Description Document

 

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area.  This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE.  Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

 

 

Eastern  Monmouth 

Date               Sat 08/16                Sun 08/17
EDT 3hrly          11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability    12    6   14   30   17    8   13   24   12    4    9   30
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0   10   10    5    5    5    5    5    5   10   10   30
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        75   76   77   75   74   73   72   73   79   81   82   79
Heat Index                                                      85   87     
Wind (mph)        E 6 SE 7 SE 8  S 7  S 6  S 5 SW 5 SW 8 SW 8 S 12 S 14 S 13
Wind Gust               12   14                                             


Date               Mon 08/18           Tue 08/19           Wed 08/20           Thu 08/21
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    10   46   62   81   82   83   75   72   83   78   88   83   96   91   97
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    3    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    4    4    4    3
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      20   20   20   10   20   20   20   20   30   30   30   30   20   20   20
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        76   72   72   71   70   70   72   71   70   71   74   73   70   69   74
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)      NW 12NE 18NE 15 E 13 E 12 E 13 E 14 E 13 E 13 E 14 E 16 E 15NE 15NE 16NE 12
Wind Gust          17   23   21                       18   18        22   22   20

 
Coastal  Ocean 

Date               Sat 08/16                Sun 08/17
EDT 3hrly          11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability    17   12   18   27   20   14   16   22   16   13   18   30
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0   10    5    5    0    5    5    0    0    5    5   20
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld
Temperature        77   78   78   75   75   74   73   75   79   81   81   78
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        E 8  E 9 SE 9 SE 7 SE 6  S 5 SW 5 SW 7 S 10 S 14 S 16 S 15
Wind Gust               14                                           21     


Date               Mon 08/18           Tue 08/19           Wed 08/20           Thu 08/21
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    17   32   52   65   68   70   69   69   72   72   74   73   75   75   75
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      20   20   30   10   20   20   20   20   20   20   30   20   20   20   20
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        76   74   73   72   71   71   74   72   72   72   75   74   72   71   74
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       W 10NE 17NE 20 E 16 E 14 E 15 E 15 E 15 E 14 E 15 E 17NE 17NE 17NE 18NE 15
Wind Gust          15   23   25   21        20                  20   24   23   22

 
Coastal  Atlantic 

Date               Sat 08/16                Sun 08/17
EDT 3hrly          11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability     9    5   12   24   14    8   14   22   11    6   15   37
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    5    5    5    0    0    5    0    0    5    5   10
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld
Temperature        77   77   77   75   75   74   73   75   78   79   79   77
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        E 8 E 10  E 9 SE 6 SE 5  S 3  S 2 SW 6  S 8 S 13 S 14 S 14
Wind Gust                                                                   


Date               Mon 08/18           Tue 08/19           Wed 08/20           Thu 08/21
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    18   30   20   52   59   65   64   65   68   67   68   67   69   68   69
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    3    2    3    2    5    2    3    2
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10   10   20   20   20   20   10   10   20   20   20   20   20   10   10
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        76   74   74   72   72   72   73   72   72   72   75   73   72   71   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        W 9NE 14NE 18 E 17 E 14 E 15 E 16 E 15 E 14 E 15 E 17NE 17NE 17NE 18NE 15
Wind Gust               20   25   23        20                  21   24   23   23

 
Atlantic  Coastal  Cape  May 

Date               Sat 08/16                Sun 08/17
EDT 3hrly          11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability     9    5   11   25   15    9   14   24   13    5   14   42
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    5    0    0    0    0    5    0    0    5    5   10
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        77   78   78   75   75   74   73   75   78   80   79   78
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        E 8  E 9  E 8 SE 6 SE 5 SE 3  S 2 SW 5  S 8 S 12 S 13 S 14
Wind Gust                    13                                             


Date               Mon 08/18           Tue 08/19           Wed 08/20           Thu 08/21
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    19   30   23   52   65   75   75   73   82   80   84   80   87   84   87
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    2    3    2
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10   10   20   20   20   20   10   10   20   10   20   20   20   10   10
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        75   75   75   73   72   72   74   72   72   73   76   74   72   71   74
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SW 8NE 10NE 18NE 17 E 14 E 15 E 16 E 15 E 13 E 15 E 17NE 17NE 17NE 17NE 14
Wind Gust               17   24   23        20                  21   23   23   22

 
Delaware  Beaches 

Date               Sat 08/16                Sun 08/17
EDT 3hrly          11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low     
Rip Probability    18   11   15   25   21   14   16   24   19    9    9   19
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        77   78   78   76   75   74   73   74   78   80   80   78
Heat Index                                                                  
Wind (mph)        E 9  E 9  E 9  E 6 SE 5 SE 3  S 2 SW 3  S 6 S 10 S 13 S 13
Wind Gust                                                                   


Date               Mon 08/18           Tue 08/19           Wed 08/20           Thu 08/21
EDT 6hrly          02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14   20   02   08   14

Rip Probability    11   16   31   48   60   62   66   61   69   64   70   64   73   70   75
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    3    2    3    3    3    3    3
Dom Period (s)     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      10   10   20   20   20   20   20   10   10   10   20   20   20   20   20
TSTM Potential     MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        74   76   76   75   73   74   75   75   73   74   76   75   73   72   75
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       SW 8  N 9NE 16NE 17 E 14 E 16 E 16 E 16 E 14 E 16NE 17NE 18NE 17NE 18NE 15
Wind Gust               15        22                                 22   23

 
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