NWS Forecast Office Great Falls, MT

Flood crest forecasts for the Missouri River at Ulm have trended downward this afternoon and evening as the Missouri River Basin Forecast Center water model incorporates updated information about the rivers' cross-section and flow patterns that have changed over the years due to erosion and shifting sand or mud bars. Additionally, several upstream gauges have been damaged or moved due to the current flooding situation. While these most recent forecasts indicate that the flood crest has lowered, it is important to remember that the forecast could trend upward once again as new data is added to the water model. At this time, the Great Falls area is expected to experience flooding beginning late Wednesday night and continuing through Friday or Saturday. If you live in or near Woodland Estates Road and the Country Club area of Great Falls, you should prepare for possible flooding and heed the recommendations of local emergency officials. The current forecast of 15.2 feet at the river gauge at Ulm is comparable to the flood crest of 1997 and slightly below the crest of 2011. Please remember that this forecast contains some level of uncertainty and will continue to be adjusted in the coming hours and days. At 15 feet, flooding of the Woodland Estates Road area, including some homes, is expected. At 17 feet (record high level), flooding of homes in the Country Club area of Great Falls is expected. For the latest weather and flood information, please follow us at weather.gov/greatfalls. For the latest river gauge readings and forecasts, please visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=tfx.