National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Overview

During the early morning hours of 9/16/25, a weak low pressure system was meandering off the coast of North Carolina. There was robust convection around the center of the low the evening before, but that convection rapidly dissipated between 8 and 11 PM that evening. However, between 2 and 6 AM on 9/16, the convection around the center of the low rapidly increased as it deepened off the coast of NC. In fact, an eye like feature was evident on radar imagery by late morning off the NE NC coast. Heavy rain bands on the NW side of the low had already produced 2-4" of rain in VA Beach by 10-11 AM. In addition to the rain, winds picked up on the NW side of the low with frequent gusts to 40 mph at Norfolk/VA Beach with 30-40 knot gusts over the lower Chesapeake Bay and SE VA/NE NC coastal waters. The low deepened further during the afternoon as it tracked NNW to a position just off the SE VA coast. Moderate rain continued across much of E/SE VA, with another 2-5" of rain across VA Beach. This prompted a Considerable Flash Flood Warning to be issued in VA Beach. In addition to the rain, the wind and tidal flooding peaked during the afternoon and evening. With the low just east of Northampton County, VA during high tide (which was early evening), peak winds were out of the N-NNW over the Chesapeake Bay, with NW winds over the tidal rivers. Occasional gusts of 45-50 knots were observed over the marine area, prompting Special Marine Warnings. At elevated locations  (3rd Island/Cape Henry), gusts in excess of 50 knots were observed. With the N-NNW winds, the worst of the tidal flooding occurred along the southern shore of the Chesapeake Bay in VA Beach. Water levels crested just above 6 ft MLLW at Lynnhaven Inlet, which is 0.5 ft above major flood stage. The crest at Lynnhaven was higher than the crest during Matthew (10/2016). Given the wind direction, moderate tidal flooding was observed further west in Norfolk and Portsmouth, with only minor to highly localized moderate flooding up the tidal rivers. Water levels at the established Jamestown/Yorktown gauges failed to reach their respective moderate flood thresholds. The hybrid storm eventually made landfall on the VA Eastern Shore and quickly weakened after moving inland during the night of the 16th into the early morning on the 17th. 

 

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