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Expanded California Fire Weather Threats; Unsettled Across the West

A storm system will impact the western third of the U.S.. Strong, gusty winds will increase Fire Weather threats across much of western and central California. Rain and mountain snows can be expected across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies, with wintry conditions in the Great Basin and High Plains. Accumulating snows will also continue across the Upper Midwest to the Northeast. Read More >

Expect a chilly night across the region with lows in the 30s areawide. Clear skies today will lead to partly cloudy skies overnight, with a southerly wind between 5 to 10 mph.
...Good Rain Chances late Saturday... Rain chances will increase during the day on Saturday, and will peak during the evening hours as an upper level disturbance treks quickly northeast across the region. The best rain chances will occur across the eastern and southeastern counties, with lower rain chances the farther west you go. A few storms will be possible, particularly across the southeast counties, but severe weather is not expected. Activity will move quickly east of the area after midnight.
Maybe you've heard a rumor about wintry weather before Christmas? It's true, some of the forecast data does suggest a weather pattern favorable for winter weather. However it's such a long way out, weather forecasters have to deal with probabilities. Here's a chart that shows the highest probability of a certain type of weather December 21st through December 25th. Cold weather looks like a certainty by Friday morning. However the precipitation forecast is more uncertain. A cold rain remains the highest likelihood, but probabilities have increased since yesterday for ice or snow in the region...particularly on December 23rd and 24th.
Another cold front will move into the region this evening and overnight. This front will result in a north wind shift, but gusty winds are not expected until Thursday. Low temperatures tonight and Thursday morning will be in the 30s for most locations.

 
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North Texas Flash Flood Climatology

   

 

Flash flooding kills more people annually than any other type of severe weather.  There are numerous social, educational, and political issues that contribute to the high fatality rates associated with flash flooding.  According to the American Meteorology Society (AMS), flash flooding is a “flood that rises and falls quite rapidly with little or no advance warning, usually as the result of intense rainfall over a relatively small area.”  But what does that mean?  How much rain over how big of an area constitutes a flash flood?  Forecasters, the public, the media, storm spotters, and law enforcement officials all have ideas about whether a situation is a flash flood or not.  It is ultimately up to National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters to classify whether an event is a flash flood.  Storm Data, issued by the National Climatic Data Center, is the official publication for severe weather events.  Flash flooding was first documented in Storm Data in 1995. 

 

Unlike other severe weather events, such as tornadoes and hail, flash flooding can be caused and exacerbated by high population densities and poorly planned urban infrastructure.  This makes flash flooding a unique warning and forecasting challenge as forecasters must take into account more than just meteorological factors.  That is why this database, which identifies the most dangerous locations in north Texas, can be a crucial piece of information for issuing effective warnings.  In addition, findings from this study may be incorporated into warning templates, thereby strengthening the public’s perception of danger and hopefully saving lives.

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