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Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic; Heat and Fire Weather Concerns in the West

Scattered strong to severe storms, excessive rainfall, and flooding are expected across parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today. Flood Watches are in effect. Heat will continue to impact the West today. Heat advisories are in effect for portions of the Intermountain West; and Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect for portions of Arizona and southeast California. Read More >


Good morning! Low pressure system moves over New England, bringing a cold front through the area later tonight. Fog develops over the coast and Downeast region this morning, reducing visibility to below half a mile in many locations. Overcast skies today, as rain showers begin to move in from the west to east. There is a potential for some thunderstorms in western/central Maine today due to some favorable instability. Could be some periods of heavy rain associated with these storms. Some gusty winds could also occur this afternoon throughout the state this afternoon. Front passes over the state tonight, causing temperatures to drop down in to the 60s. Scattered rain showers could occur Downeast along the front. Another round of fog is possible tonight into early tomorrow morning. Tomorrow, period of brief ridging, keeping skies partially cloudy. Could be a few scattered rain showers in the north, from a low pressure system out to the northwest. For more information, please go to weather.gov/car

For Moderate/High/Extreme hazard risk, more detailed information will be provided via emailed briefings to core partners.


Coastal Flooding  ---  Fire  ---   Flooding    ---   Heat    ---   Thunderstorms ---   Tropical  ---   Winter

 

Spot Fire Weather Forecast Request

 

Red Flag Event Criteria

1)  Forest fuel conditions dry enough to support dangerous fire behavior. This shall be coordinated with the New Hampshire Forest Protection Bureau, and the Maine Forest Service.
2)  Weather conditions which could result in dangerous fire behavior: less than 30% humidity and frequent or sustained gusts above 25 mph.
Note: Both forest and weather conditions must be expected to issue a Red Flag Warning.

 

 

Fire Weather Watch is issued up to 72 hours in advance of expected onset of red flag criteria

 

Red Flag Warning is issued when red flag criteria will occur in 24 hours or less

 

24-hour Day 1 Minimum Relative Humidity

Day 1 Min RH

Map displays minimum relative humidity values for the afternoon of Day 1.

Map is updated every time the forecaster issues a new forecast.

24 Hour Day 2 Minimum Relative Humidity
 

Day 2 Min RH

Map displays 24 hour minimum relative humidity values for the afternoon of Day 2.

Map is updated every time the forecaster issues a new forecast.


 

Storm Prediction Center Fire Outlook Day 1
Day 1 Fire Weather Discussion

Day 1 Outlook

The Day 1 Outlook covers the 24-hour period from 12Z on the morning of product issuance to 12Z the following morning, with the update covering the 19-hour period from 17Z at issuance to 12Z the following morning.

Storm Prediction Center Fire Outlook Day 2Day 2 Fire Weather Discussion

Day 2 Outlook

The Day 2 Outlook covers the following 24-hour period after Day 1 out to 48 hours. The Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook is scheduled for issuance at 10Z and is updated at 20Z.

Storm Prediction Center Fire Outlook Days 3-8Day 3-8 Fire Wx Discussion

Day 3-8 Outlook

The Day 3-8 Outlook covers the period of 48 to 192 hours from 12Z on the morning of product issuance. The Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook is scheduled for issuance at 22Z.

Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Products
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Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF)

Short-Range Ensemble Forecast  is produced by postprocessing the 21 members NCEP SREF plus the operational WRF-NAM for a total of 22 members. Special emphasis is placed on high-impact, mesoscale guidance including fire weather.

Weather Hazards MapHazards Assessment

Weather Hazards

Map displays active watch, warnings, advisories and short term forecasts in the lower 48 states. Map automatically refreshes every five minutes.

Loop of sea-level pressures and fronts through day 7

Surface Analysis

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) produces surface maps which depicts the analysis of  highs, lows, fronts, troughs, outflow boundaries, squall lines, and drylines.