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Spring Flood Outlook |
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Snow Water Equivalent Streamflow Analysis 30 Day Rainfall Departure Soil Moisture Percentile 1-Month Precip Outlook 1-Month Temp Outlook 3-Month Precip Outlook 3-Month Temp Outlook |
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
455 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2019
...Spring flood probabilities remain very high along major rivers...
Despite the loss of significant snow cover in the basins of both the
Mississippi and Missouri rivers, the probabilities of reaching
significant flood levels remains quite high for this spring season.
Along the Missouri River, minor to moderate flooding is likely, with
moderate flooding expected at Jefferson City, Hermann, and St.
Charles. Along the Mississippi River, moderate to major flooding
remains likely.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 04/01/2019 - 06/30/2019
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton LD20 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 69 >95 15 11 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : >95 42 50 9 14 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 68 >95 28 54 9
Quincy LD21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 62 >95 26 54 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 69 >95 15 60 9
Saverton LD22 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 65 >95 38 >95 18
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 73 >95 35 25 6
Clarksville LD24 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 73 >95 28 >95 12
Winfield LD25 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 68 >95 41 92 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 82 >95 30 50 12
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 >95 40 46 12
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 60 >95 46 65 19
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 >95 57 82 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 60 50 28 26 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 52 44 18 14 11 10
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 50 45 14 12 5 5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 51 45 36 31 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 54 43 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 56 53 25 25 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : >95 57 >95 26 52 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 28 28 19 19 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 50 46 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 54 49 21 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 42 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 64 57 15 13 <5 <5
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 46 39 10 8 <5 <5
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 44 33 17 16 9 7
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 51 66 42 46 18 27
:Meramec
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 32 44 8 21 <5 11
:Meramec River
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : 39 79 <5 30 <5 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : >95 70 22 22 15 13
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 27 34 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : >95 48 >95 39 18 13
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 83 44 42 20 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 53 19 23 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 26 29 18 21 <5 <5
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : >98 61 >98 52 32 15
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 12 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : >98 63 49 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : >98 72 15 10 9 5
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 79 22 13 8 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : >98 73 77 41 15 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : >98 64 24 13 12 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : >98 68 64 28 13 8
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 04/01/2019 - 06/30/2019
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton LD20 20.7 20.8 21.0 22.1 23.3 25.2 26.6
LaGrange 21.6 21.6 21.9 23.0 24.2 26.1 27.5
Quincy 25.0 25.0 25.0 26.2 27.6 30.0 31.7
Quincy LD21 23.8 23.8 23.9 25.2 26.9 29.3 30.9
Hannibal 23.6 23.6 23.6 24.6 25.9 29.1 30.7
Saverton LD22 24.1 24.1 24.1 25.0 26.1 28.5 29.4
Louisiana 23.5 23.5 23.5 24.0 25.0 27.2 28.6
Clarksville LD24 34.1 34.1 34.1 34.5 35.3 37.1 38.2
Winfield LD25 34.0 34.0 34.1 34.5 35.4 37.4 38.6
Grafton 27.9 27.9 28.0 29.0 31.4 36.0 36.1
Mel Price LD 31.2 31.2 31.7 33.6 35.2 40.1 42.4
St. Louis 38.6 38.6 39.2 41.1 42.8 48.0 49.9
Chester 39.9 39.9 40.5 42.4 44.8 48.8 50.5
:North Fabius River
Ewing 5.8 6.7 8.9 12.0 15.2 19.0 21.3
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.2 6.2 8.7 12.1 16.0 20.0 21.5
:South Fabius River
Taylor 4.1 5.6 6.9 9.5 12.1 15.1 19.1
:North River
Palmyra 6.3 7.4 9.1 13.1 18.2 19.8 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 9.0 10.5 14.2 17.2 19.1 20.9 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.5 10.7 12.5 15.8 17.9
:Cuivre River
Troy 11.3 12.6 16.4 22.3 25.0 28.7 29.7
Old Monroe 27.4 28.4 29.2 30.0 31.3 34.1 35.1
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 3.7 6.2 10.1 12.6 19.2 21.3 22.4
:Bourbeuse River
Union 6.8 9.0 11.6 15.0 18.6 21.4 24.9
:Big River
Byrnesville 7.9 8.6 12.8 16.2 19.2 22.0 23.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 4.0 5.4 7.4 11.4 14.5 16.5 19.5
Sullivan 6.3 7.1 9.5 14.0 18.2 21.1 23.5
Pacific 3.9 6.0 10.3 14.7 18.0 22.9 24.3
Eureka 8.0 10.0 12.7 17.4 23.5 30.8 31.8
Valley Park 6.8 8.4 12.8 16.5 22.4 27.3 31.2
:Meramec
Fenton 11.2 12.8 17.3 20.9 25.4 28.7 31.7
:Meramec River
Arnold 11.4 12.2 15.6 19.3 26.5 30.8 33.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 19.6 19.6 20.0 21.6 23.2 26.5 27.7
Carlyle TW 420.7 420.7 421.1 422.5 423.6 424.7 425.9
:La Moine River
Ripley 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.3 26.1 28.0 28.9
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 9.4 12.8 18.5 22.3 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.5 3.0 4.0 9.8 13.5 16.2 18.4
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 6.2 7.0 10.5 15.9 20.7 27.3 28.9
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 25.3 25.3 25.5 28.2 30.7 33.3 36.2
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.8 13.1 14.9 18.3 23.4 26.4
Mari-Osa Campgrou 20.2 20.2 20.9 21.9 23.5 27.1 32.0
:Missouri River
Chamois 22.4 22.4 22.8 24.6 27.1 30.7 31.8
Gasconade 30.0 30.0 30.6 32.0 33.9 36.5 37.3
Hermann 25.8 25.8 26.5 28.8 31.4 35.8 36.2
Washington 22.5 22.5 23.2 25.4 27.8 32.4 33.1
St. Charles 28.2 28.2 28.9 31.2 33.5 37.4 38.2
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 04/01/2019 - 06/30/2019
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton LD20 11.7 11.0 8.8 7.8 5.4 4.4 4.1
LaGrange 12.6 11.9 9.7 8.7 6.3 5.3 5.0
Quincy 14.9 14.6 12.8 12.6 12.0 11.7 11.6
Quincy LD21 13.1 12.8 9.6 8.3 5.8 5.0 4.7
Hannibal 14.4 14.3 12.3 11.7 10.7 10.2 10.0
Saverton LD22 12.8 12.7 9.7 8.5 6.7 5.8 5.5
Louisiana 13.7 13.2 12.1 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville LD24 23.5 22.8 20.2 18.8 16.9 15.8 15.3
Winfield LD25 23.8 22.9 20.2 18.7 16.7 15.6 15.1
Grafton 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7
Mel Price LD 17.2 16.3 13.8 10.0 6.9 4.7 3.8
Chester 24.4 22.3 20.3 14.1 9.0 4.7 3.0
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.9 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.2
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6
:North River
Palmyra 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1
:Salt River
New London 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 3.6 2.2 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.0 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0
Old Monroe 19.0 17.8 15.5 14.6 12.7 11.5 10.9
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7
:Big River
Byrnesville 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.7
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4
Sullivan 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.2
Eureka 4.3 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.2
:Meramec
Fenton 3.9 3.4 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.4 1.2
:Meramec River
Arnold 7.8 7.7 7.2 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.4
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 9.5 8.6 3.9 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.8
Carlyle TW 419.4 419.4 417.1 411.2 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.0 6.7 6.0 5.3 5.1 4.9 4.9
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7
:Maries River
Westphalia 1.3 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.4 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.0 14.7 10.1 6.7 4.2 3.1 2.1
:Osage River
St. Thomas 3.7 3.5 2.7 2.5 1.8 1.2 1.2
:Missouri River
Gasconade 19.6 13.5 9.1 3.7 3.0 3.0 3.0
St. Charles 20.8 17.1 14.3 9.5 5.9 3.8 2.4
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued the last week of April 2019.
Fuchs
$$
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