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Figure 1: Snow Water Equivalent Image. (Courtesy of NOHRSC)
Figure 2: USGS Current Streamflow Analysis
Figure 3: 180 Day Percentage of Mean Precipitation Analysis (Courtesy of Midwest Climate Center)
Figure 4: Palmer Drought Severity Index
Figure 5: Soil Moisture (mm)
Figure 6: Three Month Temperature Outlook
Figure 7: Three Month Precipitation Outlook

NWS
St. Louis, Missouri

Spring Flood Outlook
Issued: March 10, 2022

Snow Water EquivalentCurrent Snow Water Equivalent

Streamflow AnalysisUSGS Stream Analysis

  30 Day Rainfall DeparturePrecipitation 30 Day Percentage of Mean

Soil Moisture PercentileCurrent Soil Moisture

1-Month Precip Outlook3 Month Precipitation Outlook

1-Month Temp Outlook3 Month Temperature Outlook

3-Month Precip Outlook3 Month Precipitation Outlook

3-Month Temp Outlook3 Month Temperature Outlook

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
940 AM CST THU MAR 10 2022

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Near normal flood chances along the Mississippi River...
...Well below normal flood chances along the Missouri River...
...Near to above normal flood chances along most local tributaries...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape
Girardeau, Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City,
Missouri to its confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois
River downstream from Beardstown, Illinois to its confluence with
the Mississippi River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri,
and west central and southwest Illinois.

The only ongoing flooding anywhere within the St. Louis Service Area
is along the Kaskaskia River at both Vandalia and Carlyle.  With
those exceptions, the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding nor by any anticipated excessive
rainfall.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins, and forecast rainfall over the next two weeks
to three months.  More than expected rainfall could cause additional
flooding over the area, while less than expected rainfall could keep
rivers from reaching crests we consider likely.

As for our two biggest rivers, the Missouri River basin continues to
experience widespread persistent drought across most of the Great
Plains into Montana and Wyoming.  This has been coupled with a snow
drought over this same area, with less than an inch of snow water
equivalent currently over Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and most
of Montana, eastern Wyoming, and eastern Colorado. With higher flow
from recent local precipitation in Missouri, minor flooding is now
likely at 3 of the 5 forecast points along the Missouri River,
though those proabilities are still 15 to 21 percent below
historical norms.

In the Mississippi basin, the headwaters have above normal snow
water content on the ground across most of Minnesota and northern
Wisconsin.  But as the river winds south, snow water equivalent
becomes below normal across far southeastern Minnesota and most of
southern Wisconsin.  However, snow water content is again above
normal across southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northern
Illinois.  With Mississippi River flow increased from recent
rainfall locally, the flood probabilities have increased to near
normal historical averages along the Missouri-Illinois border,
though a bit below normal near the St. Louis area, thanks to the
lower inflow from the Missouri River.  This means minor flooding is
likely at almost all forecast points along the Mississippi in the
St. Louis Service Area, near normal historical norms.

There are near to above average flood chances along most local
streams in the St. Louis Service Area over the next 90 days. In
northeastern and central Missouri, stream flows are near normal,
resulting in near normal flood probabilities. In the Meramec basin,
stream flows are above normal in the upper Meramec and upper Big
rivers, rendering an above normal likelihood for minor flooding.  On
the lower Meramec River, however, these flood probabilities are near
normal.  In Illinois, recent flooding on both the Kaskaskia and
Illinois rivers have left minor flooding likely over the next 90
days.

For the St. Louis service area, outlooks from the Climate Prediction
Center indicate a solid likelihood of above normal temperatures and
mostly near normal precipitation over the next 6-10 day period and
the 8-14 day period.  For the next 3 months of March through May,
the outlook favors above normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/14/2022 - 06/12/2022

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              15.0   20.0   25.0 :  60   63   12   15   <5   <5
LaGrange            17.0   23.0   25.0 :  49   51   <5   10   <5   <5
Quincy              19.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   56   22   28    6   10
Lock & Dam 21       18.0   21.0   25.0 :  49   53   20   26    6   10
Hannibal            17.0   22.0   24.0 :  61   60   11   14    7   10
Saverton            16.0   20.0   24.0 :  67   65   28   38    9   11
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  75   73   26   34   <5    8
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 :  76   73   22   28   10   13
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 :  71   67   33   41    7   10
Grafton             20.0   24.0   29.0 :  69   77   34   42    6   10
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 :  68   78   22   33   14   14
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  56   60   27   45   17   16
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 :  83   82   38   53   22   27
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   17.0   20.0 :  55   52   15   15   10   10
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   20.0 :  48   47   15   14   11   10
:South Fabius River
Taylor              10.0   14.0   19.0 :  49   49   17   16   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  26   26   11   11   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  53   53   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  54   53   21   22    7    7
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  56   61   25   26   10   14
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   17   16   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  49   41    5   <5   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  70   66   16   12   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   50   11   11   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  46   40    8    7   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  55   49   22   22   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  42   42   18   17    7    7
Valley Park         18.0   21.0   27.0 :  46   48   39   38   23   28
Fenton              23.0   29.0   32.0 :  50   56   25   27   18   21
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 :  80   81   26   30   24   27
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  91   83   37   36   19   18
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  49   43   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  46   44   40   36   13   10
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  75   80   50   49   30   27
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  38   39   23   23   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  39   40   23   25    9   10
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  46   67   24   54   17   25
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  13   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  33   60   22   31   19   22
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  62   79   17   17   <5   10
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  61   80   31   50   20   21
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  47   73   20   21    8   18
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  52   78   24   39    6   16

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/14/2022 - 06/12/2022
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               11.2   11.8   13.1   16.0   17.9   20.2   21.9
LaGrange             12.1   12.7   14.0   16.9   18.8   21.1   22.8
Quincy               14.5   14.9   16.1   19.2   21.6   24.0   26.2
Lock & Dam 21        12.7   13.1   15.0   17.9   20.3   22.9   25.3
Hannibal             14.2   14.5   15.6   17.9   20.0   22.3   25.1
Saverton             12.6   13.0   14.8   17.9   20.3   22.8   25.4
Louisiana            13.1   13.5   15.0   18.0   20.2   22.2   24.5
Clarksville          22.7   23.2   25.1   28.4   30.8   32.8   34.9
Winfield             22.8   23.6   25.3   28.5   30.8   32.7   34.9
Grafton              16.2   16.7   19.6   22.8   25.1   28.3   31.9
Mel Price LD         14.9   17.2   19.6   24.2   28.0   35.1   37.7
St. Louis            15.8   21.4   25.2   30.5   35.3   42.8   45.9
Chester              18.2   22.2   27.4   32.9   37.2   47.3   47.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 7.5    7.6    8.9   11.2   14.7   19.8   22.5
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 6.8    7.0    8.5   11.7   15.3   20.1   22.3
:South Fabius River
Taylor                6.0    6.7    8.1   10.0   13.0   16.6   18.4
:North River
Palmyra               6.7    7.3    8.2   10.4   13.3   16.5   18.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              9.8   11.9   15.3   17.1   18.8   20.6   21.6
:Salt River
New London            8.3    8.4    9.7   10.1   11.4   13.0   13.5
:Cuivre River
Troy                 11.9   13.0   17.0   21.8   24.9   27.4   29.2
Old Monroe           17.7   19.0   21.6   24.4   26.9   29.9   31.2
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.7   11.5   15.1   19.3   20.7   22.0
:Meramec River
Steelville            4.5    5.8    8.0   11.8   14.4   16.2   20.0
Sullivan              7.0    8.3   10.1   14.7   18.1   21.4   26.6
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 8.5   10.0   11.7   15.2   19.6   22.9   25.7
:Meramec River
Pacific               5.2    8.7   10.8   14.9   18.6   22.3   26.5
:Big River
Byrnesville           9.5   10.3   13.5   16.9   19.6   23.0   25.8
:Meramec River
Eureka                9.4   11.7   13.9   17.7   23.7   29.5   35.9
Valley Park           9.8   13.2   14.6   17.3   26.2   37.4   40.7
Fenton               14.3   17.8   19.9   23.1   28.9   36.9   39.8
Arnold               18.5   19.8   25.4   29.2   36.1   42.6   44.4
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             15.9   18.8   21.4   23.0   25.5   27.2   28.9
Carlyle TW          422.8  422.9  423.0  423.5  424.5  425.8  426.0
:La Moine River
Ripley               13.9   16.6   18.7   21.7   25.4   27.6   28.8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        8.4    9.7   16.9   24.9   29.7   36.0   40.3
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.7    2.8    3.8    7.6   13.5   17.8   19.0
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         7.1    8.6   10.5   16.7   24.5   29.1   36.8
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       11.4   15.4   17.1   21.9   24.8   35.4   35.9
:Osage River
St. Thomas            8.6    9.6   11.7   13.1   15.8   24.7   25.3
Mari-Osa Campgrou     7.9   12.5   14.0   17.4   20.8   26.2   30.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               8.7   12.9   14.5   20.0   23.7   29.3   30.3
Hermann              13.1   16.2   17.9   23.8   27.9   34.7   35.4
Washington           10.2   12.7   14.4   19.7   23.3   30.7   32.2
St. Charles          18.4   20.6   21.4   25.9   29.5   35.8   36.4

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/14/2022 - 06/12/2022
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton                7.2    7.0    6.5    5.5    4.6    3.8    3.0
LaGrange              8.1    7.9    7.4    6.3    5.5    4.7    3.9
Quincy               12.5   12.4   12.3   12.0   11.8   11.4   10.9
Lock & Dam 21         7.7    7.6    7.0    5.9    5.1    4.3    3.6
Hannibal             11.4   11.4   11.1   10.7   10.3    9.9    9.8
Saverton              8.0    8.0    7.5    6.8    6.0    5.2    4.5
Louisiana            12.0   12.0   12.0   12.0   11.9   11.9   11.8
Clarksville          18.4   18.3   17.9   17.1   15.9   14.8   14.0
Winfield             18.2   18.1   17.7   16.9   15.8   14.6   13.9
Grafton              15.5   15.4   15.4   15.3   15.1   14.9   14.7
Mel Price LD         10.1    9.8    9.2    7.9    6.9    5.5    4.2
St. Louis             9.7    9.6    8.8    6.6    5.2    2.0    0.4
Chester              12.8   12.7   11.6    9.6    8.3    4.7    3.2
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.6    3.5    3.4    3.2    3.1    3.0
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.0    3.0    2.8    2.8    2.7    2.6
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.6
:North River
Palmyra               4.3    4.2    4.1    4.0    3.9    3.9    3.9
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.4    4.2    4.2    4.1    3.9    3.9
:Salt River
New London            6.4    5.0    4.4    2.6    2.0    2.0    2.0
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.8    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           14.3   14.3   13.8   12.9   11.8   10.3    9.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            2.0    2.0    1.8    1.7    1.6    1.5    1.5
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.1    2.0    1.8    1.6    1.4    1.3    1.2
Sullivan              3.7    3.6    3.3    3.1    2.9    2.8    2.7
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.9    2.8    2.7    2.5    2.4    2.3    2.2
:Big River
Byrnesville           3.7    3.2    2.8    2.4    2.1    2.0    1.9
:Meramec River
Eureka                4.4    4.0    3.8    3.4    3.2    3.1    3.0
Fenton                4.5    4.0    3.6    2.9    2.5    1.7    1.6
Arnold                9.3    9.1    8.2    7.8    7.4    6.8    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              9.2    8.3    3.9    3.0    2.8    2.6    2.6
Carlyle TW          421.7  421.1  419.7  412.2  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.4    7.1    6.2    5.7    5.4    5.2    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:Maries River
Westphalia            1.7    1.6    1.3    1.1    0.9    0.7    0.6
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.2    4.1    3.8    3.0    2.7    2.4    2.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    1.1    1.0    0.9
:Osage River
St. Thomas            2.7    2.7    2.7    2.5    2.5    2.4    2.0
:Missouri River
Hermann               3.7    3.4    3.2    3.1    2.9    2.6    2.4
St. Charles           8.9    8.7    8.4    8.2    7.4    7.2    7.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

$$
Fuchs