National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Flood Concerns in Parts of the East; Severe Weather for High Plains; Fire Weather in West

A stationary front will continue to produce thunderstorms and heavy rain that may result in flash flooding across the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic today. Meanwhile, strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from Montana to the southern Plains. Finally, a large area of elevated fire weather concerns with red flag warnings in effect across the West. Read More >

 

Figure 1: Snow Water Equivalent Image. (Courtesy of NOHRSC)
Figure 2: USGS Current Streamflow Analysis
Figure 3: 180 Day Percentage of Mean Precipitation Analysis (Courtesy of Midwest Climate Center)
Figure 4: Palmer Drought Severity Index
Figure 5: Soil Moisture (mm)
Figure 6: Three Month Temperature Outlook
Figure 7: Three Month Precipitation Outlook

NWS
St. Louis, Missouri

Spring Flood Outlook
Issued: March 12, 2020

Snow Water EquivalentCurrent Snow Water Equivalent

Streamflow AnalysisUSGS Stream Analysis

  30 Day Rainfall DeparturePrecipitation 30 Day Percentage of Mean

Soil Moisture PercentileCurrent Soil Moisture

1-Month Precip Outlook3 Month Precipitation Outlook

1-Month Temp Outlook3 Month Temperature Outlook

3-Month Precip Outlook3 Month Precipitation Outlook

3-Month Temp Outlook3 Month Temperature Outlook

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
300 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
   Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...

This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.

Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.

This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests.  More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.

The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter.  This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff.  In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains.  This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out.  Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month.  In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota.  Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota.  This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding.  While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.

For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal.  Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring.  On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location.  While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.

In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks.  Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.


...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Mississippi River
Canton              14.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   66   39   16   <5   <5
LaGrange            18.0   23.0   25.0 :  71   41   21    9    7   <5
Quincy              17.0   22.0   26.0 : >95   64   59   28   21    9
Lock & Dam 21       17.0   21.0   25.0 : >95   60   59   27   21    9
Hannibal            16.0   22.0   24.0 : >95   67   38   16   21    9
Saverton            16.0   20.0   22.0 : >95   62   67   38   45   20
Louisiana           15.0   20.0   25.0 : >95   72   62   34   10    6
Clarksville         25.0   31.0   33.0 : >95   72   59   30   33   12
Winfield            26.0   30.0   34.0 : >95   65   71   41   22    9
Grafton             18.0   24.0   29.0 : >95   79   61   35   18    9
Mel Price LD        21.0   29.0   34.0 : >95   74   48   39   13    9
St. Louis           30.0   35.0   40.0 :  80   68   56   47   24   15
Chester             27.0   35.0   40.0 : >95   81   72   60   34   25
:North Fabius River
Ewing               11.0   14.0   18.0 :  56   52   26   28   11   11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing               12.0   17.0   19.5 :  46   43   16   13   10    9
:South Fabius River
Taylor               9.5   14.0   19.0 :  62   54   15   14   <5   <5
:North River
Palmyra             13.0   16.0   22.0 :  57   56   37   35   <5   <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday            17.0   22.0   26.0 :  59   53    7   <5   <5   <5
:Salt River
New London          19.0   25.0   27.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cuivre River
Troy                21.0   25.0   29.0 :  55   52   28   28    9    9
Old Monroe          24.0   27.0   30.0 :  89   59   50   26   28   12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters          18.0   20.0   23.0 :  30   30   20   19   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Steelville          12.0   20.0   25.0 :  55   40    6    6   <5   <5
Sullivan            11.0   20.0   29.0 :  79   66   16   11   <5   <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union               15.0   22.0   26.0 :  52   51   10   10   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Pacific             15.0   23.0   27.0 :  54   44    9    9   <5   <5
:Big River
Byrnesville         16.0   20.0   28.0 :  62   56   27   20   <5   <5
:Meramec River
Eureka              19.0   26.0   31.0 :  49   40   21   17   13   10
Valley Park         16.0   19.0   25.0 :  76   68   59   49   34   27
Fenton              25.0   29.0   32.0 :  53   46   30   21   14   13
Arnold              24.0   35.0   38.0 : >95   79   44   28   25   22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia            18.0   24.0   26.0 :  84   81   27   26    8    7
Carlyle TW         423.5  431.0  435.0 :  24   39   <5   <5   <5   <5
:La Moine River
Ripley              22.0   23.0   27.0 :  56   48   45   42   11    8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City      17.0   25.0   29.0 :  83   86   44   43   21   18
:Maries River
Westphalia          10.0   15.0   20.0 :  50   52   19   19   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain       20.0   25.0   30.0 :  35   37   25   26    5    6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City      23.0   25.0   30.0 :  67   62   55   55   31   19
:Osage River
St. Thomas          23.0   30.0   35.0 :  10   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou   19.0   22.0   25.0 :  58   61   31   25   14   13
:Missouri River
Chamois             17.0   28.0   31.0 :  90   73   12   11    7    6
Gasconade           22.0   34.0   37.0 : >98   80    8    6   <5   <5
Hermann             21.0   26.0   33.0 :  93   77   59   51   13   11
Washington          20.0   28.0   31.0 :  81   69   18   14   11    9
St. Charles         25.0   30.0   36.0 :  82   71   36   25   10    8
:Black River Annapolis            8.0   15.0   25.0     76   72   24
  18   <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               15.4   15.7   16.9   18.9   21.4   23.2   24.6
LaGrange             16.3   16.6   17.8   19.8   22.3   24.1   25.5
Quincy               18.5   18.8   20.2   22.8   25.3   27.5   29.3
Lock & Dam 21        17.3   17.6   18.9   21.5   24.2   26.8   28.5
Hannibal             17.1   17.6   18.8   21.1   23.4   25.9   28.5
Saverton             16.9   17.5   18.9   21.6   23.9   26.1   28.1
Louisiana            17.1   17.7   18.9   21.2   23.2   24.8   26.7
Clarksville          27.5   28.1   29.5   31.8   33.8   35.2   36.7
Winfield             27.7   28.4   29.7   31.8   33.7   35.2   36.9
Grafton              19.9   20.6   22.1   25.4   28.4   30.2   32.0
Mel Price LD         21.4   21.6   25.3   28.8   32.2   34.3   36.3
St. Louis            26.5   27.4   32.1   35.8   39.6   42.4   44.2
Chester              29.5   31.2   34.1   38.3   42.0   44.9   46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 6.6    7.1    9.2   11.4   14.5   18.7   20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 5.9    6.8    8.7   11.5   15.1   18.9   21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor                5.9    6.5    8.3   10.0   12.6   15.1   17.5
:North River
Palmyra               7.5    8.0    9.8   13.9   17.5   20.0   21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday             11.1   12.5   15.7   17.5   19.2   21.0   22.3
:Salt River
New London            9.1    9.1    9.6   10.4   12.8   15.2   17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy                 12.6   14.6   17.7   22.3   25.1   28.6   29.7
Old Monroe           23.5   23.9   25.5   27.0   30.2   31.4   33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            8.7    9.6   11.7   15.6   19.2   21.2   22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville            6.3    6.7    8.9   12.7   14.7   16.6   20.1
Sullivan              8.8    9.0   11.3   14.8   18.3   21.4   25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 9.6   10.1   12.4   15.1   19.7   22.3   25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific               9.8   10.0   12.5   15.6   19.4   22.7   25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville          11.2   11.4   13.8   17.1   20.2   24.1   27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka               12.9   13.1   15.8   18.8   25.7   31.7   34.7
Valley Park          12.4   13.5   16.2   19.7   28.5   34.9   40.7
Fenton               18.6   19.5   22.8   25.6   29.5   35.1   39.9
Arnold               26.6   27.3   30.9   33.9   38.2   42.3   44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia             17.2   17.5   19.5   21.4   24.6   25.9   26.3
Carlyle TW          419.8  419.8  420.6  421.9  423.4  424.6  425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley               15.9   17.6   19.9   22.6   24.7   27.2   28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City       12.1   13.8   18.4   22.8   28.3   33.5   40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia            4.5    4.5    5.1   10.0   13.7   17.3   18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain        13.8   13.8   13.8   17.3   25.3   29.1   31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       17.7   19.9   22.3   27.6   30.9   34.6   36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas           12.7   12.7   12.7   13.8   17.6   23.3   28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou    14.3   15.4   17.3   19.3   22.8   26.2   30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois              15.2   16.9   19.4   22.8   25.8   29.3   32.0
Gasconade            22.1   23.9   26.3   29.2   31.2   33.3   34.9
Hermann              20.3   21.9   24.0   27.2   30.6   34.7   36.8
Washington           17.5   18.8   20.6   23.8   27.0   31.3   33.2
St. Charles          22.8   24.2   26.0   28.9   32.2   36.1   38.2
:Black River
Annapolis             6.2    6.2    8.1   11.2   14.7   20.6   21.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton               12.3   11.4   10.1    8.0    5.8    4.5    4.0
LaGrange             13.2   12.3   11.0    8.9    6.7    5.4    4.9
Quincy               15.3   14.7   13.6   12.7   12.1   11.7   11.5
Lock & Dam 21        13.9   12.9   11.4    8.7    6.2    5.0    4.5
Hannibal             14.8   14.2   13.2   11.9   10.8   10.2   10.0
Saverton             13.4   12.6   11.1    9.0    7.0    5.9    5.3
Louisiana            14.0   13.1   12.3   12.1   12.0   11.9   11.9
Clarksville          23.7   22.7   21.5   19.2   17.0   15.7   15.1
Winfield             23.9   22.9   21.6   19.2   16.8   15.5   14.9
Grafton              16.5   16.0   15.7   15.6   15.1   14.9   14.8
Mel Price LD         18.6   17.9   14.8   12.0    7.9    5.8    5.1
St. Louis            22.7   22.3   19.3   14.4    8.9    5.5    4.1
Chester              24.3   24.2   21.9   17.1   12.5    8.9    7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing                 3.7    3.7    3.6    3.4    3.3    3.2    3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing                 3.1    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor                2.3    2.2    2.1    1.9    1.8    1.7    1.7
:North River
Palmyra               4.7    4.7    4.6    4.5    4.5    4.4    4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday              4.5    4.5    4.4    4.3    4.2    4.2    4.2
:Salt River
New London            5.0    5.0    5.0    4.7    2.8    2.1    2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy                  6.5    6.3    6.0    5.7    5.6    5.5    5.5
Old Monroe           19.4   18.0   16.6   14.8   12.9   11.4   10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters            1.7    1.6    1.5    1.3    1.3    1.2    1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville            2.4    2.1    1.9    1.7    1.5    1.5    1.4
Sullivan              3.4    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.3    2.2    2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union                 2.4    2.4    2.2    2.0    1.9    1.8    1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville           4.1    3.7    3.0    2.6    2.4    2.2    2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka                5.0    4.5    4.2    3.8    3.7    3.6    3.5
Fenton               10.6   10.1    7.1    4.2    2.6    1.9    1.7
Arnold               20.2   19.7   16.6   11.9    7.4    6.9    6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia              8.3    6.9    3.9    3.4    3.1    3.0    3.0
Carlyle TW          419.1  419.1  416.8  411.3  411.2  411.2  411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley                7.3    6.6    6.1    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City        2.4    2.4    2.2    2.1    2.0    1.9    1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia            2.0    1.9    1.7    1.4    1.2    1.2    1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain         4.7    4.5    4.1    3.6    3.2    3.2    3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City       13.1   12.1   11.0   10.0    8.6    7.6    7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas            5.5    3.7    2.9    2.5    1.9    1.3    1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois               9.8    8.8    6.8    5.4    4.0    2.7    2.4
Gasconade            16.4   15.2   13.1   11.7   10.1    8.9    8.7
Hermann              14.5   13.6   11.7   10.0    9.1    7.2    7.0
Washington           11.3   10.4    8.5    6.8    6.0    4.3    4.2
St. Charles          17.7   16.9   15.0   13.7   12.8   10.8   10.6

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.

$$

Fuchs