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Spring Flood Outlook |
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Snow Water Equivalent Streamflow Analysis 30 Day Rainfall Departure Soil Moisture Percentile 1-Month Precip Outlook 1-Month Temp Outlook 3-Month Precip Outlook 3-Month Temp Outlook |
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
940 AM CST THU MAR 10 2022
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Near normal flood chances along the Mississippi River...
...Well below normal flood chances along the Missouri River...
...Near to above normal flood chances along most local tributaries...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape
Girardeau, Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City,
Missouri to its confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois
River downstream from Beardstown, Illinois to its confluence with
the Mississippi River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri,
and west central and southwest Illinois.
The only ongoing flooding anywhere within the St. Louis Service Area
is along the Kaskaskia River at both Vandalia and Carlyle. With
those exceptions, the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding nor by any anticipated excessive
rainfall.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins, and forecast rainfall over the next two weeks
to three months. More than expected rainfall could cause additional
flooding over the area, while less than expected rainfall could keep
rivers from reaching crests we consider likely.
As for our two biggest rivers, the Missouri River basin continues to
experience widespread persistent drought across most of the Great
Plains into Montana and Wyoming. This has been coupled with a snow
drought over this same area, with less than an inch of snow water
equivalent currently over Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and most
of Montana, eastern Wyoming, and eastern Colorado. With higher flow
from recent local precipitation in Missouri, minor flooding is now
likely at 3 of the 5 forecast points along the Missouri River,
though those proabilities are still 15 to 21 percent below
historical norms.
In the Mississippi basin, the headwaters have above normal snow
water content on the ground across most of Minnesota and northern
Wisconsin. But as the river winds south, snow water equivalent
becomes below normal across far southeastern Minnesota and most of
southern Wisconsin. However, snow water content is again above
normal across southern Iowa, northern Missouri, and northern
Illinois. With Mississippi River flow increased from recent
rainfall locally, the flood probabilities have increased to near
normal historical averages along the Missouri-Illinois border,
though a bit below normal near the St. Louis area, thanks to the
lower inflow from the Missouri River. This means minor flooding is
likely at almost all forecast points along the Mississippi in the
St. Louis Service Area, near normal historical norms.
There are near to above average flood chances along most local
streams in the St. Louis Service Area over the next 90 days. In
northeastern and central Missouri, stream flows are near normal,
resulting in near normal flood probabilities. In the Meramec basin,
stream flows are above normal in the upper Meramec and upper Big
rivers, rendering an above normal likelihood for minor flooding. On
the lower Meramec River, however, these flood probabilities are near
normal. In Illinois, recent flooding on both the Kaskaskia and
Illinois rivers have left minor flooding likely over the next 90
days.
For the St. Louis service area, outlooks from the Climate Prediction
Center indicate a solid likelihood of above normal temperatures and
mostly near normal precipitation over the next 6-10 day period and
the 8-14 day period. For the next 3 months of March through May,
the outlook favors above normal temperatures and above normal
precipitation.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/14/2022 - 06/12/2022
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 60 63 12 15 <5 <5
LaGrange 17.0 23.0 25.0 : 49 51 <5 10 <5 <5
Quincy 19.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 56 22 28 6 10
Lock & Dam 21 18.0 21.0 25.0 : 49 53 20 26 6 10
Hannibal 17.0 22.0 24.0 : 61 60 11 14 7 10
Saverton 16.0 20.0 24.0 : 67 65 28 38 9 11
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : 75 73 26 34 <5 8
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : 76 73 22 28 10 13
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : 71 67 33 41 7 10
Grafton 20.0 24.0 29.0 : 69 77 34 42 6 10
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : 68 78 22 33 14 14
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 56 60 27 45 17 16
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : 83 82 38 53 22 27
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 17.0 20.0 : 55 52 15 15 10 10
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 20.0 : 48 47 15 14 11 10
:South Fabius River
Taylor 10.0 14.0 19.0 : 49 49 17 16 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 26 26 11 11 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 53 53 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 54 53 21 22 7 7
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 56 61 25 26 10 14
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 17 16 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 49 41 5 <5 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 70 66 16 12 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 50 11 11 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 46 40 8 7 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 55 49 22 22 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 42 42 18 17 7 7
Valley Park 18.0 21.0 27.0 : 46 48 39 38 23 28
Fenton 23.0 29.0 32.0 : 50 56 25 27 18 21
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : 80 81 26 30 24 27
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 91 83 37 36 19 18
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 49 43 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 46 44 40 36 13 10
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 75 80 50 49 30 27
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 38 39 23 23 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 39 40 23 25 9 10
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 46 67 24 54 17 25
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 13 17 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 33 60 22 31 19 22
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 62 79 17 17 <5 10
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 61 80 31 50 20 21
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 47 73 20 21 8 18
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 52 78 24 39 6 16
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/14/2022 - 06/12/2022
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 11.2 11.8 13.1 16.0 17.9 20.2 21.9
LaGrange 12.1 12.7 14.0 16.9 18.8 21.1 22.8
Quincy 14.5 14.9 16.1 19.2 21.6 24.0 26.2
Lock & Dam 21 12.7 13.1 15.0 17.9 20.3 22.9 25.3
Hannibal 14.2 14.5 15.6 17.9 20.0 22.3 25.1
Saverton 12.6 13.0 14.8 17.9 20.3 22.8 25.4
Louisiana 13.1 13.5 15.0 18.0 20.2 22.2 24.5
Clarksville 22.7 23.2 25.1 28.4 30.8 32.8 34.9
Winfield 22.8 23.6 25.3 28.5 30.8 32.7 34.9
Grafton 16.2 16.7 19.6 22.8 25.1 28.3 31.9
Mel Price LD 14.9 17.2 19.6 24.2 28.0 35.1 37.7
St. Louis 15.8 21.4 25.2 30.5 35.3 42.8 45.9
Chester 18.2 22.2 27.4 32.9 37.2 47.3 47.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 7.5 7.6 8.9 11.2 14.7 19.8 22.5
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 6.8 7.0 8.5 11.7 15.3 20.1 22.3
:South Fabius River
Taylor 6.0 6.7 8.1 10.0 13.0 16.6 18.4
:North River
Palmyra 6.7 7.3 8.2 10.4 13.3 16.5 18.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 9.8 11.9 15.3 17.1 18.8 20.6 21.6
:Salt River
New London 8.3 8.4 9.7 10.1 11.4 13.0 13.5
:Cuivre River
Troy 11.9 13.0 17.0 21.8 24.9 27.4 29.2
Old Monroe 17.7 19.0 21.6 24.4 26.9 29.9 31.2
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.7 11.5 15.1 19.3 20.7 22.0
:Meramec River
Steelville 4.5 5.8 8.0 11.8 14.4 16.2 20.0
Sullivan 7.0 8.3 10.1 14.7 18.1 21.4 26.6
:Bourbeuse River
Union 8.5 10.0 11.7 15.2 19.6 22.9 25.7
:Meramec River
Pacific 5.2 8.7 10.8 14.9 18.6 22.3 26.5
:Big River
Byrnesville 9.5 10.3 13.5 16.9 19.6 23.0 25.8
:Meramec River
Eureka 9.4 11.7 13.9 17.7 23.7 29.5 35.9
Valley Park 9.8 13.2 14.6 17.3 26.2 37.4 40.7
Fenton 14.3 17.8 19.9 23.1 28.9 36.9 39.8
Arnold 18.5 19.8 25.4 29.2 36.1 42.6 44.4
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 15.9 18.8 21.4 23.0 25.5 27.2 28.9
Carlyle TW 422.8 422.9 423.0 423.5 424.5 425.8 426.0
:La Moine River
Ripley 13.9 16.6 18.7 21.7 25.4 27.6 28.8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 8.4 9.7 16.9 24.9 29.7 36.0 40.3
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.7 2.8 3.8 7.6 13.5 17.8 19.0
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 7.1 8.6 10.5 16.7 24.5 29.1 36.8
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 11.4 15.4 17.1 21.9 24.8 35.4 35.9
:Osage River
St. Thomas 8.6 9.6 11.7 13.1 15.8 24.7 25.3
Mari-Osa Campgrou 7.9 12.5 14.0 17.4 20.8 26.2 30.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 8.7 12.9 14.5 20.0 23.7 29.3 30.3
Hermann 13.1 16.2 17.9 23.8 27.9 34.7 35.4
Washington 10.2 12.7 14.4 19.7 23.3 30.7 32.2
St. Charles 18.4 20.6 21.4 25.9 29.5 35.8 36.4
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/14/2022 - 06/12/2022
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 7.2 7.0 6.5 5.5 4.6 3.8 3.0
LaGrange 8.1 7.9 7.4 6.3 5.5 4.7 3.9
Quincy 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.0 11.8 11.4 10.9
Lock & Dam 21 7.7 7.6 7.0 5.9 5.1 4.3 3.6
Hannibal 11.4 11.4 11.1 10.7 10.3 9.9 9.8
Saverton 8.0 8.0 7.5 6.8 6.0 5.2 4.5
Louisiana 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.9 11.9 11.8
Clarksville 18.4 18.3 17.9 17.1 15.9 14.8 14.0
Winfield 18.2 18.1 17.7 16.9 15.8 14.6 13.9
Grafton 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.7
Mel Price LD 10.1 9.8 9.2 7.9 6.9 5.5 4.2
St. Louis 9.7 9.6 8.8 6.6 5.2 2.0 0.4
Chester 12.8 12.7 11.6 9.6 8.3 4.7 3.2
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.6
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6
:North River
Palmyra 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.9
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9
:Salt River
New London 6.4 5.0 4.4 2.6 2.0 2.0 2.0
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 14.3 14.3 13.8 12.9 11.8 10.3 9.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2
Sullivan 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 3.7 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.1 2.0 1.9
:Meramec River
Eureka 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.4 3.2 3.1 3.0
Fenton 4.5 4.0 3.6 2.9 2.5 1.7 1.6
Arnold 9.3 9.1 8.2 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 9.2 8.3 3.9 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.6
Carlyle TW 421.7 421.1 419.7 412.2 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.4 7.1 6.2 5.7 5.4 5.2 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:Maries River
Westphalia 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.6
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.0 2.7 2.4 2.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.1 1.0 0.9
:Osage River
St. Thomas 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.0
:Missouri River
Hermann 3.7 3.4 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.6 2.4
St. Charles 8.9 8.7 8.4 8.2 7.4 7.2 7.0
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
$$
Fuchs
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