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Spring Flood Outlook |
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Snow Water Equivalent Streamflow Analysis 30 Day Rainfall Departure Soil Moisture Percentile 1-Month Precip Outlook 1-Month Temp Outlook 3-Month Precip Outlook 3-Month Temp Outlook |
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
300 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service ST. LOUIS MO
325 PM CST THU MAR 12 2020
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
...Significant flooding likely along the Mississippi and Missouri
Rivers...
...Minor flooding likely along most local streams...
This outlook uses the term St. Louis Service Area to refer to the
Mississippi River from above Canton Missouri to above Cape Girardeau
Missouri, the Missouri River above Jefferson City Missouri to its
confluence with the Mississippi River, the Illinois River downstream
from Beardstown Illinois to its confluence with the Mississippi
River, and for tributary rivers in eastern Missouri, and west
central and southwest Illinois.
Ongoing or expected flooding within the St. Louis Service Area which
may skew these results is occurring along the Kaskaskia River at the
tailwater gage of Carlyle Dam, and along the lower Missouri River.
Otherwise, while the probabilities within this outlook are not
skewed by any ongoing flooding, though initial flows throughout
the region remain above normal for this time of year.
This outlook is based on current streamflows and soil moisture over
the area, and upstream snowpack in the Mississippi, Missouri, and
Illinois river basins. The statistics are based on about 60 years of
historical rainfall and stream crests. More than normal rainfall
could cause higher-than-expected crests at individual forecast
locations, while less than normal rainfall could keep streams from
reaching "likely" crests.
The larger rivers, particularly the Mississippi and Missouri rivers,
have experienced well above normal streamflow through most the past
winter. This is providing a high starting point for these rivers to
accept future runoff. In addition, in the wake of last year`s
historic flooding along both rivers, soil moisture in both basins
remains very high, particularly across the upper Midwest and
northern plains. This will prevent the land areas from absorbing
much future snowmelt or rainfall, and this situation will not change
until after the spring thaw, when prolonged warm and dry weather may
provide an opportunity for these soils to dry out. Snow water
equivalent in the upper Mississippi River basin is the biggest
change in this updated outlook from last month. In mid-February,
several inches of snow water equivalent was in place across much of
northern Iowa, northern Illinois, and all of Wisconsin and
Minnesota. Today, that significant snowpack is confined to only
northern Wisconsin and northern Minnesota. This has lowered the
likely crests along the upper Mississippi by 2 to 3 feet. Along the
Missouri River, moderate flooding remains likely at Jefferson City
and Hermann, and minor flooding remains likely at Chamois,
Washington, and St. Charles. This update represents an increase in
expected crests along the lower Missouri River, likely due to a
higher starting point this week resulting from the current minor
flooding. While there has been some lowering of likely flood crests
along the Mississippi, the final determinant to the severity of
spring flooding will be basin-wide rainfall in all Missouri stream
basins.
For local basins, the chances for flooding are at most locations
throughout the St. Louis service area remains near to above average.
Across central Missouri, flood probabilities are closer to normal.
Minor flooding is likely along the Fabius rivers, the North River,
the Middle Fork Salt River, the Cuivre River, the Osage River, the
Meramec River, the Bourbeuse River, the Big River, the Moreau River,
the Black River, the La Moine River, and the Kaskaskia River. Soil
moisture and wintertime precipitation have left these areas with
moist soils, but in some areas not much different from normal.
Several locations have flood probabilities close to normal. Most
streams in Missouri have a likelihood of seeing minor flooding over
the next 90 days. In Illinois, the Illinois River and La Moine River
are also expecting above normal chances of flooding this spring. On
the Kaskaskia River, flood chances are close to normal at Vandalia,
but this means minor flooding is likely at this location. While the
bi-state region is largely devoid of significant snowpack, high soil
moisture and abnormally high streamflow, particularly south of the I-
70 corridor, are contributing to flood chances in these local basins.
In the near term, the Climate Prediction Center calls for above
average temperatures and above average average precipitation
throughout the bi-state region in both the 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14
day outlooks. Looking ahead to the next 3 months, there are equal
chances of temperatures being above, below, or near normal
throughout the St. Louis service area, but precipitation is expected
to be above average from March through May.
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Canton 14.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 66 39 16 <5 <5
LaGrange 18.0 23.0 25.0 : 71 41 21 9 7 <5
Quincy 17.0 22.0 26.0 : >95 64 59 28 21 9
Lock & Dam 21 17.0 21.0 25.0 : >95 60 59 27 21 9
Hannibal 16.0 22.0 24.0 : >95 67 38 16 21 9
Saverton 16.0 20.0 22.0 : >95 62 67 38 45 20
Louisiana 15.0 20.0 25.0 : >95 72 62 34 10 6
Clarksville 25.0 31.0 33.0 : >95 72 59 30 33 12
Winfield 26.0 30.0 34.0 : >95 65 71 41 22 9
Grafton 18.0 24.0 29.0 : >95 79 61 35 18 9
Mel Price LD 21.0 29.0 34.0 : >95 74 48 39 13 9
St. Louis 30.0 35.0 40.0 : 80 68 56 47 24 15
Chester 27.0 35.0 40.0 : >95 81 72 60 34 25
:North Fabius River
Ewing 11.0 14.0 18.0 : 56 52 26 28 11 11
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 12.0 17.0 19.5 : 46 43 16 13 10 9
:South Fabius River
Taylor 9.5 14.0 19.0 : 62 54 15 14 <5 <5
:North River
Palmyra 13.0 16.0 22.0 : 57 56 37 35 <5 <5
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 17.0 22.0 26.0 : 59 53 7 <5 <5 <5
:Salt River
New London 19.0 25.0 27.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cuivre River
Troy 21.0 25.0 29.0 : 55 52 28 28 9 9
Old Monroe 24.0 27.0 30.0 : 89 59 50 26 28 12
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 30 30 20 19 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Steelville 12.0 20.0 25.0 : 55 40 6 6 <5 <5
Sullivan 11.0 20.0 29.0 : 79 66 16 11 <5 <5
:Bourbeuse River
Union 15.0 22.0 26.0 : 52 51 10 10 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Pacific 15.0 23.0 27.0 : 54 44 9 9 <5 <5
:Big River
Byrnesville 16.0 20.0 28.0 : 62 56 27 20 <5 <5
:Meramec River
Eureka 19.0 26.0 31.0 : 49 40 21 17 13 10
Valley Park 16.0 19.0 25.0 : 76 68 59 49 34 27
Fenton 25.0 29.0 32.0 : 53 46 30 21 14 13
Arnold 24.0 35.0 38.0 : >95 79 44 28 25 22
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 18.0 24.0 26.0 : 84 81 27 26 8 7
Carlyle TW 423.5 431.0 435.0 : 24 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Ripley 22.0 23.0 27.0 : 56 48 45 42 11 8
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 17.0 25.0 29.0 : 83 86 44 43 21 18
:Maries River
Westphalia 10.0 15.0 20.0 : 50 52 19 19 <5 <5
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 20.0 25.0 30.0 : 35 37 25 26 5 6
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 23.0 25.0 30.0 : 67 62 55 55 31 19
:Osage River
St. Thomas 23.0 30.0 35.0 : 10 16 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mari-Osa Campgrou 19.0 22.0 25.0 : 58 61 31 25 14 13
:Missouri River
Chamois 17.0 28.0 31.0 : 90 73 12 11 7 6
Gasconade 22.0 34.0 37.0 : >98 80 8 6 <5 <5
Hermann 21.0 26.0 33.0 : 93 77 59 51 13 11
Washington 20.0 28.0 31.0 : 81 69 18 14 11 9
St. Charles 25.0 30.0 36.0 : 82 71 36 25 10 8
:Black River Annapolis 8.0 15.0 25.0 76 72 24
18 <5 <5
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 15.4 15.7 16.9 18.9 21.4 23.2 24.6
LaGrange 16.3 16.6 17.8 19.8 22.3 24.1 25.5
Quincy 18.5 18.8 20.2 22.8 25.3 27.5 29.3
Lock & Dam 21 17.3 17.6 18.9 21.5 24.2 26.8 28.5
Hannibal 17.1 17.6 18.8 21.1 23.4 25.9 28.5
Saverton 16.9 17.5 18.9 21.6 23.9 26.1 28.1
Louisiana 17.1 17.7 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.8 26.7
Clarksville 27.5 28.1 29.5 31.8 33.8 35.2 36.7
Winfield 27.7 28.4 29.7 31.8 33.7 35.2 36.9
Grafton 19.9 20.6 22.1 25.4 28.4 30.2 32.0
Mel Price LD 21.4 21.6 25.3 28.8 32.2 34.3 36.3
St. Louis 26.5 27.4 32.1 35.8 39.6 42.4 44.2
Chester 29.5 31.2 34.1 38.3 42.0 44.9 46.9
:North Fabius River
Ewing 6.6 7.1 9.2 11.4 14.5 18.7 20.9
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.5 15.1 18.9 21.4
:South Fabius River
Taylor 5.9 6.5 8.3 10.0 12.6 15.1 17.5
:North River
Palmyra 7.5 8.0 9.8 13.9 17.5 20.0 21.2
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 11.1 12.5 15.7 17.5 19.2 21.0 22.3
:Salt River
New London 9.1 9.1 9.6 10.4 12.8 15.2 17.6
:Cuivre River
Troy 12.6 14.6 17.7 22.3 25.1 28.6 29.7
Old Monroe 23.5 23.9 25.5 27.0 30.2 31.4 33.4
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 8.7 9.6 11.7 15.6 19.2 21.2 22.1
:Meramec River
Steelville 6.3 6.7 8.9 12.7 14.7 16.6 20.1
Sullivan 8.8 9.0 11.3 14.8 18.3 21.4 25.2
:Bourbeuse River
Union 9.6 10.1 12.4 15.1 19.7 22.3 25.3
:Meramec River
Pacific 9.8 10.0 12.5 15.6 19.4 22.7 25.2
:Big River
Byrnesville 11.2 11.4 13.8 17.1 20.2 24.1 27.2
:Meramec River
Eureka 12.9 13.1 15.8 18.8 25.7 31.7 34.7
Valley Park 12.4 13.5 16.2 19.7 28.5 34.9 40.7
Fenton 18.6 19.5 22.8 25.6 29.5 35.1 39.9
Arnold 26.6 27.3 30.9 33.9 38.2 42.3 44.6
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 17.2 17.5 19.5 21.4 24.6 25.9 26.3
Carlyle TW 419.8 419.8 420.6 421.9 423.4 424.6 425.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 15.9 17.6 19.9 22.6 24.7 27.2 28.1
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 12.1 13.8 18.4 22.8 28.3 33.5 40.1
:Maries River
Westphalia 4.5 4.5 5.1 10.0 13.7 17.3 18.7
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 13.8 13.8 13.8 17.3 25.3 29.1 31.2
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 17.7 19.9 22.3 27.6 30.9 34.6 36.5
:Osage River
St. Thomas 12.7 12.7 12.7 13.8 17.6 23.3 28.0
Mari-Osa Campgrou 14.3 15.4 17.3 19.3 22.8 26.2 30.2
:Missouri River
Chamois 15.2 16.9 19.4 22.8 25.8 29.3 32.0
Gasconade 22.1 23.9 26.3 29.2 31.2 33.3 34.9
Hermann 20.3 21.9 24.0 27.2 30.6 34.7 36.8
Washington 17.5 18.8 20.6 23.8 27.0 31.3 33.2
St. Charles 22.8 24.2 26.0 28.9 32.2 36.1 38.2
:Black River
Annapolis 6.2 6.2 8.1 11.2 14.7 20.6 21.6
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/16/2020 - 06/14/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Canton 12.3 11.4 10.1 8.0 5.8 4.5 4.0
LaGrange 13.2 12.3 11.0 8.9 6.7 5.4 4.9
Quincy 15.3 14.7 13.6 12.7 12.1 11.7 11.5
Lock & Dam 21 13.9 12.9 11.4 8.7 6.2 5.0 4.5
Hannibal 14.8 14.2 13.2 11.9 10.8 10.2 10.0
Saverton 13.4 12.6 11.1 9.0 7.0 5.9 5.3
Louisiana 14.0 13.1 12.3 12.1 12.0 11.9 11.9
Clarksville 23.7 22.7 21.5 19.2 17.0 15.7 15.1
Winfield 23.9 22.9 21.6 19.2 16.8 15.5 14.9
Grafton 16.5 16.0 15.7 15.6 15.1 14.9 14.8
Mel Price LD 18.6 17.9 14.8 12.0 7.9 5.8 5.1
St. Louis 22.7 22.3 19.3 14.4 8.9 5.5 4.1
Chester 24.3 24.2 21.9 17.1 12.5 8.9 7.6
:North Fabius River
Ewing 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1
:Middle Fabius River
Ewing 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.7
:South Fabius River
Taylor 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.7
:North River
Palmyra 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4
:Mid Fork Salt River
Holliday 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Salt River
New London 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 2.8 2.1 2.1
:Cuivre River
Troy 6.5 6.3 6.0 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5
Old Monroe 19.4 18.0 16.6 14.8 12.9 11.4 10.6
:Dardenne Creek
St. Peters 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2
:Meramec River
Steelville 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.4
Sullivan 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1
:Bourbeuse River
Union 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8
:Big River
Byrnesville 4.1 3.7 3.0 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.1
:Meramec River
Eureka 5.0 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.5
Fenton 10.6 10.1 7.1 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.7
Arnold 20.2 19.7 16.6 11.9 7.4 6.9 6.7
:Kaskaskia River
Vandalia 8.3 6.9 3.9 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.0
Carlyle TW 419.1 419.1 416.8 411.3 411.2 411.2 411.2
:La Moine River
Ripley 7.3 6.6 6.1 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.0
:Moreau River
Jefferson City 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.9
:Maries River
Westphalia 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.1
:Gasconade River
Rich Fountain 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.2 3.1
:Missouri River
Jefferson City 13.1 12.1 11.0 10.0 8.6 7.6 7.3
:Osage River
St. Thomas 5.5 3.7 2.9 2.5 1.9 1.3 1.1
:Missouri River
Chamois 9.8 8.8 6.8 5.4 4.0 2.7 2.4
Gasconade 16.4 15.2 13.1 11.7 10.1 8.9 8.7
Hermann 14.5 13.6 11.7 10.0 9.1 7.2 7.0
Washington 11.3 10.4 8.5 6.8 6.0 4.3 4.2
St. Charles 17.7 16.9 15.0 13.7 12.8 10.8 10.6
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/lsx for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued during the week of March 23rd.
$$
Fuchs
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