Moisture originating from former Tropical Storm Priscilla is expected to yield numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over northwestern NM today. Several rounds of rainfall could lead to areas of flash flooding. Heaviest rainfall totals will focus in the higher terrain along the Colorado border.
A wet remainder of the holiday weekend is in store, which should provide at least some drought relief for western portions of New Mexico. Flash flooding will be a concern, however.
Although flooding rain is the main threat, a few afternoon thunderstorms along the Arizona border north of Interstate 40 could also turn severe, with wind gusts up to 60 mph the main hazard. Small hail is also possible.
The potential for heavy rainfall is greatest across western NM and the Tusas Mountains today. There is also a 15-20% chance of urban flooding in the Albuquerque Metro during the late afternoon and early evening. Heavy rain threat shifts to southwestern NM for Sunday.
A back-door cold front and a renewed tropical moisture tap expand the flash flooding threat area again Monday into Tuesday, with pockets of heavy rain possibly persisting overnight. Burn scars will be particularly vulnerable.