There is a moderate risk of flooding across northwest NM on Sunday and a slide risk of flooding across much of the rest of western NM. Widespread rain amounts between one and 3 inches expected across western NM, highest amounts will occur in favored upslope areas such as the Tusas Mountains near Chama. Saturated soils from the previous flood event will allow for increased runoff. Even persistent light to moderate rainfall could cause flooding in arroyos, urban and poor drainage areas. River rises are expected. There is a moderate to high chance of river flooding, though rivers may not crest until Monday or Tuesday. Stay away from riverbanks!
Widespread soaking rainfall is likely early Sunday morning through Monday morning across much of central and western New Mexico. Between 1 and 2 inches of precipitation is expected for most areas, but near 3 inches is expected around Chama. Rain on already saturated soils will increase runoff and the potential for flooding. On Monday above 9000 feet, rain will turn to snow as cooler air moves in.
A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms exists Sunday night. Severe weather may impact portions of central and eastern NM between 7pm and 2am. Storms will be capable of all hazards, including hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
Gusty southwest winds will return on Sunday. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph will be common across western NM and areas just east of the Central Mountain Chain. On Monday, winds will strengthen from the west and northwest behind a cold front. Gusts near 50 mph are expected just east of the Central Mountain Chain, while gusts between 30 and 45 mph will be common elsewhere.
Quiet conditions are expected this evening. Around 6pm, temperatures will be in the mid 50s to mid 60s for most areas, though a little cooler in the Northern Mountains. Light winds and partly to mostly cloudy skies will prevail. Happy Halloween!
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