Isolated-to-widely-scattered thunderstorms, dry thunderstorms, and virga showers will develop across the northern mountains, upper Rio Grande Valley, northwest plateau, Chuska Mountains, and west central plateau this afternoon and early evening. Localized, brief, and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph are expected near some cells, as well as cloud-to-ground lightning.
Higher flows will continue in rivers, creeks, arroyos, and low water crossings across the northern mountains through the weekend, especially along the east slopes of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Recent heavy snow will continue to melt with any additional rainfall on existing snowpack today and tomrrow intensifying the melt and runoff.
Breezy-to-windy conditions and very low humidities will combine with high fire danger due to dry fuels to produce fire weather concerns over portions of south central and southwest New Mexico Tuesday, and probably again Wednesday.
Even less shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast for this afternoon and evening with slightly warmer temperatures once again. Shower and storm coverage will mostly be confined to the northern central and Chuska Mountains. Showers and storms will produce more in the way of gusty and erratic wind gusts of up to 45 mph rather than wetting rainfall.
Winds increase early this week peaking on Tuesday and Wednesday. Strong wind gusts of 40 to 55 mph will scatter and topple loose items like lawn furniture and garbage cans and result in difficult to hazardous crosswinds on the north to south oriented roads and highways. Dry conditions will also arrive, leading to an increased risk of fire spread for western and south-central areas.
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