Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions are likely to continue through 00Z Monday 
outside of a broken 2500-3500 ft AGL cloud deck that is 
currently traversing across central Pennsylvania. The bulk of
model guidance continues to keep all airfields VFR; however,
cannot rule out brief drops towards MVFR at AOO/UNV/MDT/LNS
over the next couple of hours. Any drops are expected to be
transient and could last less than an hour before VFR prevails
so have kept all airfields prevailing VFR. Clouds begin to clear
out near 00Z Monday, allowing for some fog potential across the
region overnight into Monday morning.

Strong signal for fog continues in much of model guidance this
afternoon; thus, increasing condifence in fog impacting some
subset of airfields across the region. Comparing 17Z
observations this afternoon compared to yesterday, more low-
level moisture is in place at BFD/UNV/IPT where dew point
depressions are slightly lower at AOO. Given this, have trended
up timing of potential fog formation at BFD/UNV/IPT while 
trending backwards slightly at AOO. Lowest confidence of any fog
formation will be at LNS with current thinking that JST/MDT 
remain VFR by Monday morning. That being said about all of the 
fog mentions, there is a solution where dry air wins out and fog
potential across the area remains minimal but that appears to 
be a lower confidence solution at this time. After 12Z Monday, 
very high confidence in VFR conditions returning to the area by
14Z with those conditions likely to continue into the end of 
the 18Z TAF package.

Outlook...

Tue...AM fog possible; otherwise predominantly VFR.

Wed...Primarily VFR, although late-day SHRA/TSRA possible 
across the northern tier.

Thu...Cold FROPA could bring scattered SHRA/TSRA areawide.

Fri...Primarily VFR conditions, some potential for afternoon
SHRA/TSRA but uncertainty remains high.

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