.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The main area of showers that has been moving through the region
today is now working its way through MDT and LNS and will be
east of the region by 03Z. Ceilings will remain VFR at all 
Central PA airfields through the next few hours. Model RH
profiles suggest that MVFR ceilings will first develop at BFD
around 05Z, though there is around a 30% chance that they move
in an hour or two sooner. The low clouds will spread
southeastward into the early morning and there is a 50 to 70
percent chance that MVFR ceilings develop at all sites except
MDT and LNS by sunrise. Ceilings will fall to IFR at BFD and
remain there for much of the day on Sunday, while all other
sites see ceilings return to VFR by 15Z. 

While most of the region will be dry during the day, a few 
showers will be possible at BFD. Confidence on the timing of any
showers is low and will have to be adjusted with future TAF
issuances.

West-northwesterly wind gusts have decreased to 15 to 25 knots 
and will likely remain in this range for much of the night 
before increasing to 20 to 30 knots during the day. Model
soundings show 40 knot winds around 2000 feet across much of the
area tonight, but have held off on including LLWS in the TAFs 
as surface winds should remain elevated enough to limit the 
threat. 

Outlook...

Mon-Tue...VFR.

Tue PM-Thu...Ocnl SHRA/TSRA.

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