Aviation Forecasts and Information Page - NWS State College PA

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain chances remain possible at JST/AOO over the next couple of
hours (through 02Z Mon) with high (~100%) confidence in there 
being no precipitation mentions throughout the rest of the TAF 
package after 02Z Mon. VFR is expected to prevail outside of 
BFD/JST (more below) throughout the entire 00Z TAF package with 
very high (~90-100%) confidence as high pressure begins to 
influence the area.

Across the western highlands (BFD/JST), restrictions remain 
possible (~20-30%) at BFD in the 10Z-12Z Mon timeframe as low- 
level moisture remains in model soundings. This is a low 
probability solution, but have included in the 00Z TAF package 
due to some potential for impacts at the airfield. Trend is in 
favor for VFR conditions to prevail at BFD throughout the entire
TAF package; however, a couple more cycles of model guidance 
outlining VFR conditions prevailing would bring higher 
confidence in removing these lower ceilings. 

At JST, more uncertainty with regards to the forecast with 
locally heavy rain and (relatively) light winds as of 21/00Z 
observations. RAP/HREF guidance is not as widespread with 
IFR/LIFR restrictions overnight; however, this set-up would 
favor IFR and below conditions. The 00Z TAF package outlines 
lower restrictions at JST with due to remaining uncertainty with
respect to onset/offset timing; however, generally expect the 
window of lower visibilities in the 06Z-12Z Mon timeframe with 
higher confidence in VFR prevailing after 13Z Mon.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...VFR with mainly dry conditions.

Thu...Mainly dry. Perhaps a shower or storm across the 
west late.

Friday...Mainly dry and hot, with isolated to scattered 
TSRA and brief restrictions possible Friday afternoon/evening.

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