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Discussion:

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Forecast:

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Observation Summary:

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Statement:

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Latest PA Weather Summary:

232
AWUS81 KCTP 120314
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-121715-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
1114 PM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A southwestern flow of hot and humid air will continue through
Friday. Heat advisories remain in effect for portions of
southeastern Pennsylvania into late Friday afternoon, for high
temperatures in the 90s with heat index values over 100 degrees.

The heat and humidity will also result in thunderstorms associated
with an approaching cold front on Friday. Some of the storms
could produce damaging wind gusts and briefly heavy rainfall.

Behind the cold front, humidity levels will be much lower this
weekend, but temperatures will remain above normal. Expect mostly
sunny skies on Saturday, followed by an increased chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday with the next cold front.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

778
FXUS61 KCTP 120548
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
148 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory remains in effect across Lancaster, York, Adams,
Cumberland, Dauphin, and Lebanon Counties for the rest of today
and Friday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat and humidity will bring increased risk for
heat-related illnesses Thursday, and especially on Friday.

2) Shower and thunderstorm chances continue through
the rest of today and again Friday. Some severe thunderstorms
will occur and produce damaging wind gusts.

3) A refreshing decrease in humidity is a good bet this weekend
with high pressure moving in after a cold front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Increasing heat and humidity will bring
increased risk for heat-related illnesses Thursday, and
especially on Friday.

With an upper level ridge in place advecting in a very warm to
hot airmass, heat and humidity will continue to build today and
Friday, particularly for the eastern two thirds of the forecast
area.

There is quite a bit of uncertainty remaining in how high the
temperatures and heat index values get due to variable amounts
of alto cu from weak warm advection aloft and remnant cloud
cover from overnight/mid morning convection. Increasing chc
for late afternoon and evening SHRA/TSRA will also add to the
uncertainty of max temps.

The continued thinking is that the NBM is a bit too high with
both temperatures and dew points both days, especially given the
recent high bias. Therefore, similar to previous forecast
cycles, went a few degrees cooler than the NBM.

All of this being said, the forecast heat index for Thursday
and Friday still get to the upper 90s and low 100s for the
southeastern portions of the area on Thursday, particularly the
Harrisburg/Lancaster/York areas. Heat Advisories have been
issued for Lancaster, York, Adams, Cumberland, Dauphin, and
Lebanon Counties for Thursday and Friday where HREF
probabilities of heat index > 100F are highest.

---------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Shower and thunderstorm probabilities will ramp
up across the NW 1/3 to 1/2 of the CWA through 00Z Friday, with
the target time across the Middle and Lower Susq Valley
occurring between 22Z Friday and 01Z Sat. Another few round of
TSRA are expected Friday. Some severe thunderstorms will occur
and produce damaging wind gusts.

Underneath a broad ridge of high pressure, a couple shortwaves
will drift across Pennsylvania over the next few days.
Sufficient instability in the presence of warm & moist air along
with weak but sufficient shear will lead to multiple rounds of
showers and thunderstorms today and Friday.

The first feature at the surface and aloft that will help to
support and increase the coverage of TSRA will come in the
form of a compact shortwave trough centered over Central Lake
Erie with its trough axis extending south across Western PA and
Eastern Ohio. Movement of this features and its many showers and
TSRA is to the ENE at just over 30KT.

Multiple storm clusters/line segments have there axis nearly
perpendicular with the moderate, 20-30 kt 0-3KM bulk shear
vector, so training and very heavy rain is not likely at this
point.

Meso-B lift and 1-2 deg C of cooling within the mid levels
(~700 mb), along with westerly 0-3 km bulk shear increasing to
around 30 KT will help to increase instability and organized
updrafts in TSRA that should push through much of our CWA in 2-3
quasi-linear features, with the main severe wx threat coming in
the form of localized wind damage associated with mini
bows/broken-S signatures.

If these multicell clusters can develop large enough cold
pools, an elevated threat of damaging wind gusts may materialize
in the form of an MCS. Such a scenario cloud produce a swath of
more significant wind damage (most likely across the Mid/lower
Susq Valley late this afternoon/evening and potentially in any
part of the CWA on Friday. Slight Risks with 30% wind
probabilities have been issued for both today and Friday across
southeast PA.

A cold frontal passage will occur on Friday. An approaching upper
trough and high available moisture suggest severe thunderstorms
are possible. But, the small ridge that pumps up overhead late
Thu could be a setback for how widespread the threat will be.
The biggest question is timing/speed of the cold front. A faster
progression could mean the cold front clears our area before
peak heating (lower threat of damaging winds), while a later
arrival could spell more concern for severe weather.

It is worth noting that recent hi-res convective
allowing models actually bring most of the convection to NW PA
today and fail to initiate many storms at all in our forecast
area on Friday. Possible flies in the ointment to monitor.

The repeated shots of scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA over the
next 2 days is likely to yield lower FFG thresholds and some
flash flooding would become possible, too. But, it has been very
dry recently, and everything is growing and thirsty, ready to
soak up as much as it can. As always, too much of a good thing
can be bad. We`ll keep an eye on the soil saturation and other
factors that could lead to flooding.

---------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 3: A refreshing decrease in humidity is a good bet
this weekend with high pressure moving in after a cold front.

Following the passage of the aforementioned cold front, much
more comfortable conditions will arrive on Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will remain warm (highs in the 80s and even some
lower 90s on Sunday), but dew points will be much lower (in the
50s and lower 60s, instead of the 70s). Then, cooler
temperatures arrive by Monday with highs in the 70s to lower
80s. This will be due to another cold front passage on Sunday,
which will bring a renewed chance for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not a lot of change from when I did the 00Z TAF package
earlier.

For the 06Z TAFS, the main issue early on was to add some
showers to BFD and adjust showers in JST for weakening line of
showers and storms over central Ohio at 130 AM.

The other change was to add a line after sunset today, for
clearing and weakening winds.

Showers and storms largely east of the area. A few light
showers near IPT, but that is about it as of 130 AM.

Fog and low clouds have been in and out of the area since
last evening, but just enough wind to keep much of the area
with limited fog so far.

Looked over the potential for LLWS, held off for now, as
a bit borderline.

More information below.

Lower clouds and fog will likely form overnight, mainly
in areas that had rain today.

Expect winds to pick up Friday morning, with conditions
expected to become VFR again by late morning or early aft.

Have some VCSH in most of the TAFS later Friday, NAM model
not showing much potential with showers and storms. Did not
have VCSh in BFD, as even less chc there. Later shifts can
adjust more on Friday as needed.

A break on Saturday, but a stronger cold front on Sunday
will bring the potential for more strong storms on Sunday.

Outlook...

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR favored early, with restrictions possible as FROPA
brings chance of -SHRA/-TSRA later in the day.

Monday...Additional scattered -SHRA and associated restrictions
possible.

Tuesday...Still a slight chance of showers and storms.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for PAZ036-057-059-
063>066.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Lambert/Banghoff/Colbert
KEY MESSAGES...Lambert/Banghoff/Colbert
DISCUSSION...Lambert/Banghoff/Colbert
AVIATION...Martin

Latest Public Information Statement:

242
NOUS41 KCTP 311520
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-010320-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1120 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

...LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS...

Location Temp Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Adams County...
2SW Mcsherrystown 41 F 0602 AM 05/31 CWOP

...Bedford County...
Claysburg 37 F 0611 AM 05/31 CWOP
Clearville 37 F 0635 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Bedford Airport 38 F 0615 AM 05/31 AWOS
Saxton 39 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
Everett Area Middle And High 40 F 0623 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Everett 41 F 0645 AM 05/31 DAVIS

...Blair County...
Altoona 39 F 0630 AM 05/31 CWOP
1 E Bellwood 40 F 0640 AM 05/31 PADOT
4 NNE Williamsburg 40 F 0610 AM 05/31 AWS
2 NNW Altoona 40 F 0630 AM 05/31 AWS
Blair Helibase 40 F 0616 AM 05/31 RAWS
Williamsburg 40 F 0530 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Altoona 40 F 0715 AM 05/31 CWOP
WILLIAMSBURG 40 F 0550 AM 05/31 CWOP
Penn State Altoona 40 F 0600 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
ALTOONA 41 F 0535 AM 05/31 CWOP
Williamsburg 41 F 0630 AM 05/31 HADS

...Cambria County...
MINERAL POINT 36 F 0626 AM 05/31 CWOP
Ebensburg 40 F 0546 AM 05/31 CWOP

...Cameron County...
Emporium 37 F 0615 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Stevenson Dam 39 F 0800 AM 05/31 COOP
Doll Hill 40 F 0650 AM 05/31 RAWS

...Centre County...
Spring Mills 34 F 0622 AM 05/31 CWOP
PORT MATILDA 34 F 0548 AM 05/31 CWOP
South Philipsburg 35 F 0649 AM 05/31 CWOP
Bellefonte 36 F 0630 AM 05/31 CWOP
Bald Eagle State Park 36 F 0555 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
2 SW State College 37 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
Centre Hall 37 F 0615 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Stormstown 37 F 0545 AM 05/31 CWOP
Rock Springs 37 F 0555 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
1 NE Port Matilda 38 F 0605 AM 05/31 PADOT
Pennsylvania Furnace 38 F 0608 AM 05/31 CWOP
Stormstown 38 F 0630 AM 05/31 CWOP
Boalsburg 38 F 0645 AM 05/31 CWOP
Lemont 38 F 0623 AM 05/31 CWOP
Zion 38 F 0613 AM 05/31 CWOP
PSU UPark PEMN 38 F 0615 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
1.2 E Rock Springs (SCAN) 38 F 0600 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
State College 39 F 0622 AM 05/31 CWOP
State College 39 F 0605 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Stormstown 39 F 0626 AM 05/31 CWOP
AccuWeather HQ 40 F 0610 AM 05/31 CWOP
State College 40 F 0622 AM 05/31 CWOP
State College 40 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
Bear Knob 41 F 0449 AM 05/31 RAWS
University Park Airport 41 F 0553 AM 05/31 AWOS

...Clearfield County...
2 ENE Clearfield 36 F 0610 AM 05/31 PADOT
Grampian 37 F 0600 AM 05/31 COOP
Clearfield Airport 37 F 0754 AM 05/31 ASOS
Psu Dubois 37 F 0627 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
6 NNE Philipsburg 38 F 0610 AM 05/31 PADOT
1 SSE S.b. Elliot State Park 40 F 0539 AM 05/31 PADOT

...Clinton County...
Carroll 36 F 0605 AM 05/31 PADOT
3 NE Mccall Dam State Park 37 F 0625 AM 05/31 PADOT
Keystone Central School Dist 39 F 0605 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Clinton County 39 F 0615 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Renovo 39 F 0700 AM 05/31 COOP
Lock Haven 40 F 0630 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Alvin Bush Dam 41 F 0730 AM 05/31 COOP

...Columbia County...
Stillwater 38 F 0623 AM 05/31 CWOP
BLOOMSBURG 39 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
Berwick 40 F 0615 AM 05/31 AWS
Bloomsburg 40 F 0610 AM 05/31 CWOP
BERWICK 40 F 0548 AM 05/31 CWOP
Bloomsburg 40 F 0605 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
2 NE Shumans 41 F 0550 AM 05/31 PADOT

...Cumberland County...
Shippensburg 40 F 0625 AM 05/31 CWOP
Tumbling Run 41 F 0549 AM 05/31 RAWS

...Dauphin County...
Manda Gap 37 F 0618 AM 05/31 RAWS
Halifax 39 F 0554 AM 05/31 CWOP
Hummelstown 39 F 0546 AM 05/31 CWOP
HUMMELSTOWN 40 F 0610 AM 05/31 CWOP
Elizabethville 41 F 0609 AM 05/31 AWS

...Elk County...
Kersey 32 F 0635 AM 05/31 CWOP
Saint Marys 34 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
Saint Marys Area High School 36 F 0618 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Ridgway 36 F 0620 AM 05/31 AWS
Saint Marys 39 F 0315 AM 05/31 CWOP

...Franklin County...
Greencastle 40 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
Waynesboro 41 F 0625 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Waynesboro 41 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
Willow Hill 41 F 0619 AM 05/31 AWS

...Fulton County...
Forney Trail 36 F 0549 AM 05/31 RAWS
1 NNW Hancock 41 F 0624 AM 05/31 PADOT
Mcconnellsburg 41 F 0640 AM 05/31 CWOP

...Huntingdon County...
Petersburg 35 F 0615 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Petersburg 38 F 0635 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Huntingdon 38 F 0545 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Shavers Creek WxSTEM 39 F 0700 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Huntingdon 39 F 0638 AM 05/31 CWOP

...Juniata County...
Lemont 40 F 0645 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Juniata Elementary School 41 F 0625 AM 05/31 MESOWEST

...Lebanon County...
Indiantown Run 39 F 0613 AM 05/31 RAWS
Palmyra 41 F 0549 AM 05/31 CWOP

...Lycoming County...
Cedar Run 38 F 0600 AM 05/31 HADS
Jersey Shore 38 F 0545 AM 05/31 CWOP
Jersey Shore 41 F 0616 AM 05/31 CWOP

...McKean County...
Smethport 32 F 0645 AM 05/31 CWOP
Kinzua Bridge State Park 32 F 0605 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Smethport 33 F 0650 AM 05/31 CWOP
Bradford Airport 33 F 0753 AM 05/31 ASOS
Shinglehouse 34 F 0505 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Bradford 5SW 35 F 0800 AM 05/31 COOP
2 WSW Mount Jewett 38 F 0550 AM 05/31 PADOT

...Mifflin County...
2 SSW Alfarata 38 F 0600 AM 05/31 AWS
Mifflin County Airport-RVL 39 F 0555 AM 05/31 AWOS
Chestnut Springs 40 F 0551 AM 05/31 RAWS
Lewistown 40 F 0555 AM 05/31 DAVIS
LEWISTOWN 40 F 0610 AM 05/31 CWOP

...Northumberland County...
Knoebels Grove 37 F 0645 AM 05/31 AWS
Elysburg 39 F 0630 AM 05/31 CWOP
2.6 N Mount Carmel 39 F 0549 AM 05/31 HADS
0.6 SW Sunbury 39 F 0845 AM 05/31 COOP
Wolf Pond 39 F 0608 AM 05/31 RAWS

...Perry County...
1 SW Loysville 39 F 0617 AM 05/31 AWS
Caiu Loysville Ydc 39 F 0556 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Elliottsburg 40 F 0625 AM 05/31 DAVIS
2 ENE Newport 41 F 0605 AM 05/31 PADOT
Big Knob 41 F 0608 AM 05/31 RAWS
Shermans Dale 41 F 0555 AM 05/31 CWOP
2 ENE Loysville 41 F 0535 AM 05/31 AWS

...Potter County...
3 W Denton Hill State Park 37 F 0540 AM 05/31 PADOT
Cherry Springs State Park 38 F 0605 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Germania 40 F 0516 AM 05/31 CWOP

...Schuylkill County...
Nuremberg 34 F 0525 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Valley View 37 F 0604 AM 05/31 CWOP
Frackville 37 F 0604 AM 05/31 CWOP
New Ringgold 38 F 0617 AM 05/31 CWOP
5 N Tuscarora 39 F 0405 AM 05/31 PADOT
POTTSVILLE 39 F 0600 AM 05/31 CWOP
Bears Head 39 F 0508 AM 05/31 RAWS
Tower City 39 F 0623 AM 05/31 CWOP
3.8 E Urban (SCAN) 39 F 0600 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Psu Schuylkill 41 F 0606 AM 05/31 MESOWEST

...Snyder County...
Selinsgrove 38 F 0753 AM 05/31 ASOS

...Somerset County...
HOLLSOPPLE 34 F 0558 AM 05/31 CWOP
Meyersdale 35 F 0605 AM 05/31 PADOT
CENTRAL CITY 35 F 0617 AM 05/31 CWOP
HOLLSOPLE 36 F 0610 AM 05/31 CWOP
Ogletown 37 F 0550 AM 05/31 PADOT
Meyersdale 37 F 0639 AM 05/31 CWOP
Somerset Airport 37 F 0515 AM 05/31 AWOS
Confluence 1 SW 39 F 0800 AM 05/31 COOP
Somerset 39 F 0625 AM 05/31 CWOP
2 NW Indian Lake 40 F 0605 AM 05/31 AWS
Jerome 40 F 0630 AM 05/31 DAVIS

...Sullivan County...
LOPEZ 30 F 0617 AM 05/31 CWOP
3 NE Laporte 33 F 0625 AM 05/31 PADOT
3.4 E Muncy Valley 36 F 0615 AM 05/31 HADS
Hillsgrove 37 F 0635 AM 05/31 DAVIS
DUSHORE 37 F 0438 AM 05/31 CWOP
Dushore 38 F 0630 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Dushore 38 F 0536 AM 05/31 CWOP
Laporte 38 F 0805 AM 05/31 COOP
Sullivan County School Distr 41 F 0544 AM 05/31 MESOWEST

...Tioga County...
Wellsboro 36 F 0625 AM 05/31 CWOP
Tioga 2 36 F 0605 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Wellsboro Airport 37 F 0535 AM 05/31 AWOS
Old Mountain 37 F 0516 AM 05/31 RAWS
Tioga 37 F 0605 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
1.3 NE Leonard Harrison SP 37 F 0700 AM 05/31 COOP
WELLSBORO 38 F 0800 AM 05/31 CWOP
Wellsboro 38 F 0545 AM 05/31 CWOP
0.8 W Tioga 38 F 0800 AM 05/31 HADS
Cowanesque Dam 39 F 0700 AM 05/31 COOP
Westfield 39 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
Tioga Junction 40 F 0635 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Morris 40 F 0630 AM 05/31 CWOP
1.5 SW Lawrenceville 41 F 0800 AM 05/31 HADS

...Union County...
LEWISBURG 40 F 0558 AM 05/31 CWOP
Lewisburg 41 F 0615 AM 05/31 DAVIS
Lewisburg 41 F 0540 AM 05/31 AWS

...Warren County...
Grand Valley 34 F 0700 AM 05/31 CWOP
Kinzua 37 F 0622 AM 05/31 RAWS
Tidioute 38 F 0645 AM 05/31 AWS
Warren County Career Center 39 F 0727 AM 05/31 MESOWEST
Warren 40 F 0700 AM 05/31 COOP

...York County...
2 E Codorus 40 F 0615 AM 05/31 AWS
Mount Wolf 41 F 0615 AM 05/31 CWOP
&&

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$

Martin