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Latest PA Weather Summary:

967
AWUS81 KCTP 160351
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-161800-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
1151 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Overall conditions will remain dry tonight. Patchy fog is
expected to develop overnight into Wednesday morning. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 60s in the north to the low
70s in the southwest and southeast.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are in the forecast
for Wednesday and Thursday. Localized areas may pick up 2 to 3
inches or more of rainfall, which could result in flash flooding.
Daytime high temperatures will be mainly in the 80s to near 90
degrees. Lows will range from the mid 60s to low 70s.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

695
FXUS61 KCTP 160327
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1127 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Elevated risk of excessive rainfall and flash flooding
Wednesday afternoon and evening
* Scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy rain forecast
through at least Thursday
* Heat risk builds Wednesday and likely peaks on Thursday with
potential for heat index value to exceed 100 degrees in south
central PA

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
With stray evening showers all but dissipated, mainly clear
skies tonight will set the stage for areas of fog/stratus
developing into early Wednesday morning. It will be muggy with
min temps 65-75F or 5 to 10 degrees above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Fog/low stratus will mix out shortly after sunrise giving way
to a mix of sun and clouds into the late morning Wed. Key
message centers around an elevated risk of flash flooding due to
multiple rounds of heavy shower/tstm clusters Wed afternoon
into Wed night.

Given impressive thermodynamics (MUCAPE 1500-3000 J/kg),
99th+ percentile PW (1.5-2.2") and midlevel vorticity associated
with an MCV, localized rainfall rates of 2"/hr are probable in
convection Wed afternoon and evening. Repeat rounds of heavy
rain/storms could quickly produce point totals of 2-4" in some
areas. This may result in instances of flash flooding,
particularly if the heavy rain falls in basins that picked up
heavy rainfall earlier this week. On a positive note, latest
HREF guidance keeps the heaviest rain west of those areas
hardest hit on Monday, but we will continue to monitor for
trends east. Another positive note is that the CAMs have most
convection firing along NW-SE oriented boundaries, then
advecting towards the northeast with the flow. This would tend
to favor multiple rounds of convection rather than true
training. Although a flood watch has not been issued, we will
continue to consider it into the day Wednesday if the signal for
flash flooding does trend higher.

While vertical shear will remain limited, SPC did expand the
MRGL risk over central PA to account for potential isolated
strong wind gusts in water loaded downdrafts that could occur
in the most intense storm cores.

Building heat and increasing dewpoints are expected through
midweek with a peak in Heatrisk on Thursday afternoon. A heat
advisory may be needed for portions of south central and
southeast PA including the mid and lower Susquehanna Valley.

Additional PM thunderstorms with the potential for heavy
rainfall are likely on Thursday as a cold front pushes to the
southeast from the Lower Great Lakes. Minimum QPF signal over
the southeast half of the CWA may be related to capping and warm
temps aloft that would limit convective initiation/coverage.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Signal in the latest suite of model guidance suggests that we
could be in for a bit of a drier and less humid stretch of wx
heading through the end of the week/start to the weekend. Sfc
cold front stalls just south of the MD line Saturday then
returns back to the north as a warm front by Sunday. So on
balance, Friday and Saturday could be dry in most places for the
majority of the time. Rain is likely to return to the forecast
Sunday, with at least chance PoPs continuing through Tuesday with
scattered thunderstorms. Typical max temps near the historical
avg for mid to late July with nighttime lows a few deg abv
climo.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The rest of this evening should remain mostly quiet. There are a
few rain showers lingering across the state, but these showers
are mostly stationary and the probability of any restrictions
due to them remains less than 30 percent. Skies overnight will
remain mostly clear to scattered high clouds in some spots.
Winds tonight will remain calm with recent model soundings
showing little to no winds in the lowest 1km. Given the moist
atmosphere and calm winds fog is expected to impact most
airfields overnight tonight. Any fog that does develop will be
patchy in nature and quickly lift around sunrise.

For Wednesday, a weak upper level trough in combination of
high dewpoints and heating will result in the increasing
chance of shower and storms across the area after late morning.
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected across
the region by Wednesday afternoon and evening. The timing of
these storms will be difficult to nail down given the nature of
the surface convergence that will be driving them, but most
airfields will see periods of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon.
These storms may linger into at least early Thursday morning,
until a weak cold front drops south and east of the area.

Outlook...

Thu...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.

Fri-Sat...Mainly dry.

Sun...Showers and storms likely.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl/Colbert
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Bowen

Latest Public Information Statement:

346
NOUS41 KCTP 151316
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-160116-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
916 AM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...PRECIPITATION REPORTS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS OVER 3 INCHES...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Columbia County...
BERWICK 5.29 in 0907 AM 07/15 CWOP
Berwick 4.72 in 0905 AM 07/15 AWS

...Lancaster County...
MOUNT JOY 7.59 in 0907 AM 07/15 CWOP
MOUNT JOY 7.39 in 0910 AM 07/15 CWOP
Columbia 6.39 in 0901 AM 07/15 CWOP
Mountville 0.5 NW 6.00 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Marietta 2.5 N 5.74 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Columbia 4.48 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Manheim 3.82 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Lancaster 5.8 WNW 3.81 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Mount Joy 3.59 in 0900 AM 07/15 CWOP
Landisville 0.8 WSW 3.54 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS
Safe Harbor 3.14 in 0800 AM 07/15 COOP

...Lycoming County...
Jersey Shore 6.1 SSE 3.58 in 0700 AM 07/15 COCORAHS

&&

**METADATA**
:7/15/2025,0905 AM, PA, Columbia, Berwick, , , 41.0614, -76.2364, RAIN, 4.72, Inch, AWS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0907 AM, PA, Columbia, BERWICK, , , 41.0642, -76.2387, RAIN, 5.29, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0800 AM, PA, Lancaster, Safe Harbor, , , 39.9244, -76.3911, RAIN, 3.14, Inch, COOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Landisville 0.8 WSW, , , 40.0913, -76.4254, RAIN, 3.54, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Mount Joy, , , 40.1133, -76.4993, RAIN, 3.59, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Lancaster 5.8 WNW, , , 40.0634, -76.4072, RAIN, 3.81, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Manheim, , , 40.1673, -76.4545, RAIN, 3.82, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0900 AM, PA, Lancaster, Columbia, , , 40.0472, -76.499, RAIN, 4.48, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Marietta 2.5 N, , , 40.0927, -76.5586, RAIN, 5.74, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Mountville 0.5 NW, , , 40.0462, -76.4408, RAIN, 6, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0901 AM, PA, Lancaster, Columbia, , , 40.0518, -76.4751, RAIN, 6.39, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0910 AM, PA, Lancaster, MOUNT JOY, , , 40.1177, -76.5377, RAIN, 7.39, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0907 AM, PA, Lancaster, MOUNT JOY, , , 40.1093, -76.4942, RAIN, 7.59, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/15/2025,0700 AM, PA, Lycoming, Jersey Shore 6.1 SSE, , , 41.1246, -77.2058, RAIN, 3.58, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
MRS