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Latest PA Weather Summary:

962
AWUS81 KCTP 120132
RWSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-
049>053-056>059-063>066-121545-

Regional Weather Summary
National Weather Service State College PA
932 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Scattered thundershowers over southern & eastern Pennsylvania will
gradually diminish overnight, with mainly dry conditions and
patchy fog expected otherwise. Low temperatures will be in the 60s
regionwide.

High pressure building in across the Northeastern US will bring
seasonable temperatures, partly sunny skies, and spotty showers
for the start of the week, with a trend towards hotter and rain-
free conditions midweek as the high pressure moves overhead. Highs
in the 80s are expected Sunday and Monday, with temperatures
trending towards the upper 80s and into the 90s Tuesday and
Wednesday.

After the midweek warm-up, chances for showers and perhaps some
thunderstorms return later in the week as the high pressure moves
out of our region, with temperatures trending closer to normal.

$$

Latest Forecaster's Discussion:

692
FXUS61 KCTP 112349
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
749 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
* Storms now firing up on the high terrain east of IPT. Changed
timing of precip and mentioned +RA/gusty winds

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, mainly
south of Interstate 80. Sunday will be mostly dry.

2) Hot and humid pattern set to return for the middle of next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
today, mainly south of Interstate 80. Sunday will be mostly dry.

Radar trends are verifying earlier forecasts and yield high
confidence in CAM projections of isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms over most of the area with the highest
concentration and frequency over the eastern third of the CWA.
Latest HRRR/HREF progs show convection lingering longer than
NBM hourlies have them doing. Expect the timing to still be
centered between now (2 PM) and sunset. However, we`ll add a
small amount to PoPs between 00-03Z to bend to the trend.

Previous discussion:

With yesterday`s cold front still pushing slowly south across
the Commonwealth, we`ll likely see another round of showers and
thunderstorms fire up late this morning and persist into the
early evening hours. However, the threat for torrential
downpours does not appear quite as widespread or intense as
yesterday. The main area will be south of Interstate 80.

Max SBCAPE is progged in the low 1000s J/kg with fairly weak NW
mean flow around 15 kts in the cloud bearing layer. Given the
weak flow, initiating boundaries may come from a variety of
sources including terrain features, differential heating
boundaries (morning fog may create some of those), and the cold
front itself. HREF and REFS members have picked out the higher
terrain in Schuylkill County as one such terrain feature that
may focus convection initiation, with a swath of locally 1+
inch of rain coming off the high terrain and stretching
southeast - a plausible solution that we`ll have to watch for. Dry
air advection behind the southward moving cold front will
gradually bring an end to convection from north to south this
evening. Fog may develop in the river valleys tonight as temps
fall into the 50s and low 60s.

With drier air in place on Sunday and building high pressure
providing a subsidence inversion above the boundary layer,
Sunday is still on track to be a mainly dry day. However, a
stray shower can not be ruled out particularly over the Laurel
Highlands or near the Poconos.

---------------------------------------------------------------

KEY MESSAGE 2: Hot and humid pattern set to return for the
middle of next week

Dry conditions are expected to prevail for the first half of
the week with a strong ridge expected to develop over the middle
of the country. Increasing heat/humidity is forecast across
central Pennsylvania although there remains some uncertainty
with respect to how warm temperatures and/or humidity get across
the region. Current forecast favors the hottest temps returning
Tue to Thu with highs 85-95F and max heat index 90-100F,
potentially rising above 100F on Wednesday. Rain chances
increase into the latter half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00z update... Through this evening, scattered, slow moving
showers and thunderstorms will dot Central PA. In all
probability, this activity will avoid terminal sites due to
their hit and miss nature. However, we will closely
monitor developments, and add short-duration TEMPO groups as
needed.

Later tonight, most of our guidance is indicating lower cloud
development near and just to the east of the Laurel Highlands,
with probable development of associated restrictions at KJST and
KAOO. For now, we kept restrictions in the MVFR-fuel alternate
categories, but some IFR ceiling bases are not out of the
question at KJST.

During the predawn hours, due to recent heavy rainfall and
resultant wet ground conditions, we feel fog development is
likely at KLNS. Restrictions will very likely drop into the IFR
category for a time, and could conceivably reach LIFR.

Elsewhere overnight, we anticipate VFR conditions.

On Sunday, once any lower clouds and fog patches lift/dissipate,
we should be looking at a restriction-free day. For a change,
little to no shower or thunderstorm activity is foreseen during
the afternoon.

Generally light winds overnight (5 kt or less), should become
easterly at 5-10 kt on Sunday.

Outlook...

Mon-Thu...Mainly VFR, with areas of late night/AM fog.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

WHAT HAS CHANGED...Dangelo
KEY MESSAGES...Dangelo
DISCUSSION...Dangelo/Steinbugl/Colbert
AVIATION...Jurewicz/Tyburski

Latest Public Information Statement:

385
NOUS41 KCTP 101338
PNSCTP
PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-110138-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
938 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

...24-HR PRECIPITATION REPORTS OVER 1 INCH...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider

...Pennsylvania...

...Adams County...
York Springs 2.5 N 1.56 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Biglerville 1.54 in 0830 AM 07/10 COOP
New Oxford 0.8 SE 1.32 in 0730 AM 07/10 COCORAHS

...Cumberland County...
Mechanicsburg 1.0 NNW 1.66 in 0646 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Mechanicsburg 1.42 in 0925 AM 07/10 CWOP

...Dauphin County...
2 NW Progress 1.14 in 0925 AM 07/10 AWS

...Franklin County...
Greencastle 1.37 in 0925 AM 07/10 CWOP

...Lancaster County...
1.4 E Lancaster 1.56 in 0930 AM 07/10 HADS
Landisville 0.8 WSW 1.55 in 0655 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Mountville 1.49 in 0928 AM 07/10 CWOP
Lancaster 5.8 WNW 1.44 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Lancaster Airport 1.42 in 0853 AM 07/10 ASOS
Landisville 1.2 ESE 1.41 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Ephrata 0.6 NW 1.33 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Ephrata 1.31 in 0930 AM 07/10 CWOP
West Lancaster 1.25 in 0923 AM 07/10 CWOP
Kirkwood 1.19 in 0930 AM 07/10 CWOP
Columbia 1.08 in 0921 AM 07/10 CWOP
MOUNT JOY 1.07 in 0925 AM 07/10 CWOP
Marietta 2.5 N 1.03 in 0600 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Lancaster 3.9 N 1.01 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS

...Schuylkill County...
Auburn 1.60 in 0928 AM 07/10 CWOP
Schuylkill Haven 3.6 SSW 1.57 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
2 SW Auburn 1.21 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS

...York County...
Dillsburg 3.3 SW 1.71 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Mechanicsburg 6.9 SE 1.24 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Wellsville 1.22 in 0925 AM 07/10 CWOP

&&

...24-HR PRECIPITATION REPORTS OVER 1 INCH RANKED...

Location Amount Time/Date Provider
Dillsburg 3.3 SW 1.71 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Mechanicsburg 1.0 NNW 1.66 in 0646 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Auburn 1.60 in 0928 AM 07/10 CWOP
Schuylkill Haven 3.6 SSW 1.57 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
1.4 E Lancaster 1.56 in 0830 AM 07/10 HADS
York Springs 2.5 N 1.56 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Landisville 0.8 WSW 1.55 in 0655 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Biglerville 1.54 in 0830 AM 07/10 COOP
Lancaster 5.8 WNW 1.44 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Lancaster Airport 1.42 in 0853 AM 07/10 ASOS
Mechanicsburg 1.42 in 0925 AM 07/10 CWOP
Landisville 1.2 ESE 1.41 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Ephrata 0.6 NW 1.33 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
New Oxford 0.8 SE 1.32 in 0730 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Mechanicsburg 6.9 SE 1.24 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
2 SW Auburn 1.21 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Ephrata 0.6 WSW 1.15 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
2 NW Progress 1.14 in 0920 AM 07/10 AWS
MOUNT JOY 1.07 in 0925 AM 07/10 CWOP
Marietta 2.5 N 1.03 in 0600 AM 07/10 COCORAHS
Lancaster 3.9 N 1.01 in 0700 AM 07/10 COCORAHS

&&

**METADATA**
:7/10/2026,0730 AM, PA, Adams, New Oxford 0.8 SE, , , 39.854, -77.046, RAIN, 1.32, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0830 AM, PA, Adams, Biglerville, , , 39.9347, -77.2546, RAIN, 1.54, Inch, COOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, Adams, York Springs 2.5 N, , , 40.0447, -77.1231, RAIN, 1.56, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0925 AM, PA, Cumberland, Mechanicsburg, , , 40.2229, -77.0142, RAIN, 1.42, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0646 AM, PA, Cumberland, Mechanicsburg 1.0 NNW, , , 40.2229, -77.0142, RAIN, 1.66, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0925 AM, PA, Dauphin, 2 NW Progress, , , 40.3131, -76.8636, RAIN, 1.14, Inch, AWS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0925 AM, PA, Franklin, Greencastle, , , 39.741, -77.724, RAIN, 1.37, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Lancaster 3.9 N, , , 40.0976, -76.3073, RAIN, 1.01, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0600 AM, PA, Lancaster, Marietta 2.5 N, , , 40.0927, -76.5586, RAIN, 1.03, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0925 AM, PA, Lancaster, MOUNT JOY, , , 40.1177, -76.5377, RAIN, 1.07, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0921 AM, PA, Lancaster, Columbia, , , 40.0518, -76.4751, RAIN, 1.08, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0930 AM, PA, Lancaster, Kirkwood, , , 39.8493, -76.0587, RAIN, 1.19, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0923 AM, PA, Lancaster, West Lancaster, , , 40.032, -76.3572, RAIN, 1.25, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0930 AM, PA, Lancaster, Ephrata, , , 40.1915, -76.1898, RAIN, 1.31, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Ephrata 0.6 NW, , , 40.1868, -76.1907, RAIN, 1.33, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Landisville 1.2 ESE, , , 40.0832, -76.3995, RAIN, 1.41, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0853 AM, PA, Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, , , 40.1167, -76.3, RAIN, 1.42, Inch, ASOS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, Lancaster, Lancaster 5.8 WNW, , , 40.0634, -76.4072, RAIN, 1.44, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0928 AM, PA, Lancaster, Mountville, , , 40.05, -76.415, RAIN, 1.49, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0655 AM, PA, Lancaster, Landisville 0.8 WSW, , , 40.0913, -76.4254, RAIN, 1.55, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0930 AM, PA, Lancaster, 1.4 E Lancaster, , , 40.05, -76.2775, RAIN, 1.56, Inch, HADS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, Schuylkill, 2 SW Auburn, , , 40.573, -76.119, RAIN, 1.21, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, Schuylkill, Schuylkill Haven 3.6 SSW, , , 40.58, -76.201, RAIN, 1.57, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0928 AM, PA, Schuylkill, Auburn, , , 40.5827, -76.1931, RAIN, 1.6, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0925 AM, PA, York, Wellsville, , , 40.0533, -76.9663, RAIN, 1.22, Inch, CWOP, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, York, Mechanicsburg 6.9 SE, , , 40.1367, -76.9183, RAIN, 1.24, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,
:7/10/2026,0700 AM, PA, York, Dillsburg 3.3 SW, , , 40.0791, -77.082, RAIN, 1.71, Inch, COCORAHS, Storm total rainfall,

Observations are collected from a variety of sources with varying
equipment and exposures. We thank all volunteer weather observers
for their dedication. Not all data listed are considered official.

$$
MRS