Fall 2025 Climate Outlook for northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina

September is the beginning of meteorological fall -- a transition season when lowering sun angles, shorter days, and longer nights cause temperatures to drop.  Cold fronts bringing cooler and drier air from Canada arrive more frequently as fall progresses.  High temperatures normally in the 80s throughout September fall into the mid 60s by the end of November.  Late fall is also when many locations across the eastern Carolinas will experience their first frosty morning of the season.

     How is meteorological fall different from fall on the calendar?

The NWS Climate Prediction Center is predicting an increased chance for above normal temperatures across the Carolinas this fall.  The precipitation outlook shows a slightly increased potential for above normal rainfall across eastern South Carolina with equal chances for below, near, or above normal precipitation across North Carolina.

Temperatures

Factors that may affect temperatures across the Carolinas this fall include:

• Slightly above normal sea surface temperatures along the Southeast coast
• The potential development of La Niña late in the fall
• Recent climatic trends toward warmer fall temperatures

At the beginning of September sea surface temperatures were slightly above normal along the coast of the Carolinas. (See graphic at right)  Between the East Coast and Bermuda, water temperatures were below normal in a cold wake left behind major Hurricane Erin back in August.  As chilly Canadian air begins to move south this fall, air passing across warmer-than-normal ocean water will not remain as cold as it would have. This could increase our potential for above-normal temperatures.

Over the past five fall (September through November) seasons temperatures have averaged 1.5 degrees above 1991-2020 normals across southeastern North Carolina and between 0.5 and 1.0 degree above normal in northeastern South Carolina.  Decadal trends in fall temperatures across the Carolinas show rising temperatures are occurring, but at a slower rate than has been observed in other seasons.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral pattern.  ENSO naturally oscillates between its warm phase (El Niño) and its cold phase (La Niña) approximately every two to five years.  The Climate Prediction Center currently has a La Niña Watch in effect as forecast sea surface temperature patterns across the tropical east Pacific Ocean may support the development of La Niña by late this fall.

     What are El Niño and La Niña and how do they affect the weather?

A study from NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory showed that during the fall months La Niña brings a slight increase in the risk of extremely warm temperatures across the Mid Atlantic states into North Carolina.  No significant shifts in risk of extreme temperatures typically occur in South Carolina.

Recent Climate Change is being caused by increasing atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases from the extraction and burning of fossil fuels.  Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane trap heat within the atmosphere that would otherwise radiate out into space.  All seasons of the year are experiencing warming temperatures including Fall.

     Climate.gov: How have global temperatures changed?

     NC Climate Office: Climate Change in North Carolina

First Freeze

The first freezing temperatures of fall usually reach the eastern Carolinas before Thanksgiving Day.  The average date of the first freeze ranges from October 29 in Lumberton, NC to November 21 in Georgetown, SC, but there is considerable year-to-year variability.  This first freeze thankfully brings an end to mosquitoes, but also to summer gardens as tomatoes, peppers, and other annual plants are killed.

In Wilmington, the season's first freeze has occurred as early as October 16 (in 1878) and as late as December 29 (in 1918).  But in Southport, NC first freeze dates have been even more extreme: the 1945 growing season didn't end in Southport until temperatures finally fell to freezing on January 10, 1946!  That growing season of 327 days is the longest on record for any local city.

Rainfall & Tropical Cyclones

Fall in the Carolinas is associated with tremendous rainfall variability from year to year.  This is mainly due to the uneven distribution of Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes. 

In fall seasons without a landfalling tropical cyclone across the Carolinas, it's tough for seasonal rainfall totals to reach the long-term seasonal average regardless of whether we have La Niña, neutral, or El Niño conditions in place.  These quiet fall seasons often have three-month (September through November) rainfall totals of only 5 to 10 inches, sometimes accompanied by developing drought conditions.

Observed rainfall over the past five fall seasons shows most years were well below the 30-year average rainfall mainly due to the lack of landfalling tropical cyclones.  Rainfall from Tropical Storm Ophelia in September 2023 was limited mainly to eastern North Carolina with little impact elsewhere.  Extreme rainfall in September 2024 associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight remained south of the city of Wilmington.

The Climate Prediction Center is calling for "equal chances" for below, near, or above normal precipitation across North Carolina and a slightly increased potential for above normal rainfall across eastern South Carolina this fall.  

Atlantic Hurricane Season

The Climate Prediction Center updated its seasonal hurricane outlook in August. The latest forecast predicts 13 to 18 named storms, 5 to 9 hurricanes, and 2 to 5 major hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.  There is a 50 percent chance that this hurricane season will see above normal activity.  As of September 4, there have been six named storms and one hurricane (Erin) that became a major hurricane.  The Atlantic Hurricane Season runs through November 30.

Across the eastern Carolinas fall is typically the most active portion of the hurricane season.  A 2023 local study showed that since 1870 when weather records began in Wilmington, over half (57 percent) of all tropical cyclones which produced measured tropical storm force (39 mph) or greater gusts occurred in September or October.

Some recent notable fall hurricane strikes in the Carolinas include Helene (2024), Ian (2022), Dorian (2019), Florence (2018), and Matthew (2016).

Preparedness for hurricanes starts now.  NOAA maintains a curated list of resources for help get you and your family ready at https://www.noaa.gov/hurricane-prep

Fall Beach Hazards

Tropical storms and hurricanes can have impacts on the beaches of North and South Carolina even when the storms are located thousands of miles away.  Long-period swells generated by hurricanes travel great distances across the ocean and can create large surf and dangerous rip currents when they reach the beaches.  Since 2004 when the National Weather Service in Wilmington began collecting daily surf reports from lifeguards, September has been the most active month for "moderate" or "strong" rip current reports -- often the result of large surf generated by hurricanes well offshore.

     NOAA/USLA Rip Current Safety Toolkit

If your plans include spending time in the water this fall, first check our beach forecasts which include surf height, temperatures, lightning risk, rip current risk, and more.

Coastal Flooding Potential

There are two periods this fall when astronomical tides by themselves will create concern for coastal flooding at local beaches and along tidal creeks and rivers.  Specific dates when flooding could occur include:

• October 7 to 11
• November 4 to 8

Tides will be particularly high during Full Moons on October 6 and November 5.  November's Full Moon is a Super Moon event where the Moon is near its closest approach in its orbit around Earth, causing a larger tidal influence.

Landfalling tropical storms or hurricanes can produce coastal flooding regardless of the astronomical tides.  And as we move into November, non-tropical storms called Nor'easters can produce strong winds and coastal flooding, too.

River Flooding Potential

Rainfall totals this summer were above normal along coastal South Carolina up the Waccamaw River into North Carolina, but ran below normal across the interior sections of South Carolina's Pee Dee region.  

Conditional river simulations produced by the Southeast River Forecast Center show the risk of flooding this fall will be larger than normal along the Northeast Cape Fear River, the Pee Dee River, and the Waccamaw River at Conway.  The risk of flooding along the Lumber River and the Black River at Kingstree, SC is expected to be close to normal.

Real-time river readings, stage forecasts, and conditional outlooks for points along many local rivers are available on our National Water Prediction Service page here: https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/ilm

Additional Reading

NOAA Hurricane Season Outlook August 2025 Update:  https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

CPC: ENSO Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions

National Ocean Service High Tide Flooding Outlook: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/high-tide-flooding/monthly-outlook.html

NWS Wilmington Tropics Main Page:  https://www.weather.gov/ilm/tropical

NWS Wilmington Significant Local Events Archive:  https://www.weather.gov/ilm/SignificantLocalEvents

Daily Climate Normals and Records for Wilmington, Florence, North Myrtle Beach, and Lumberton. 

Research and Author: Tim Armstrong
Last Updated: September 5, 2025